Natural gas bills expected to rise 71%, PG&E says

[Ernesto]

Pacific Gas and Electric Co. warned Friday that Northern California home heating bills would leap 70.8 percent in October as hurricanes Katrina and Rita drive up natural gas prices nationwide.

The storms smashed through a thicket of offshore rigs that supply roughly one-fifth of the nation's natural gas.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/10/01/MNGG9F16KE1.DTL

[no_hypocrisy]

1. I can only imagine it costing $2.00 to turn on the gas burner for

five minutes to boil water for coffee or tea.

[madrchsod]

2. it`s not gas i smell it`s

enron wafting thru the air

[Zorro]

3. IMHO rising energy prices will trigger the next recession

The cost of everything has begun an inexorable march upward to factor in the cost of energy for manufacturing and transportation. Rising inflation, coupled with rising mortgage rates and energy prices, will force consumers to reduce commodity expenditures, leading to a an overall reduction in US industrial output. Reduction in industrial output will lead to more job reductions.

All sectors of the market will be impacted, not the least being the housing market as more and more people are unable to maintain the cost of financing their homes, keeping them warm throughout the winter, and keeping food on the table.

It's going to be a long cold winter in more ways than one, I think.

YMMV.

[MADem]

22. Yep, if you have to pay the heating bill, you cannot spend at WALMART nt

[valerief]

4. It's a conspiracy by the microwave industry

They want us to do all cooking and home heating with microwaves.

Only kidding. It's a conspiracy by the oil industry.

[Pachamama]

25. Ha ha! I had same exact thoughts!

:rofl:

:hi:

[Peggy Day]

5. what about electric?

[jpak]

16. Where utilities have invested heavily in natural gas-fired power plants

The cost of electricity will increase - dramatically.

(note: gas-fired power plants convert ~40% of the energy in natural gas to electricity - a spike in electrical demand will put further strain on gas supplies this winter)

[HockeyMom]

27. Electric?

LIPA added a $25 fuel surcharge last month. They just announced ANOTHER $25 starting next month. That's $50 per month. God knows what our gas heating bills will be. EVERYBODY wants a piece of the pie it seems.

[Missy M]

6. No where did I read they would actually run out of natural gas...

so why does the price have to go so high. Many people in the north will not be able to afford the high heating bills, what are they to do. This is something the government could definitely do something about but with the current administration and congress, they won't. The American people have got to start standing up to these thieves.

[markam]

9. It is not an evil plot by the energy companies

It is simple supply and demand.

From the Federal Minerals Management Service

"Today’s shut-in gas production is 7.941BCFPD. This shut-in gas production is equivalent to 79.41% of the daily gas production in the GOM, which is currently approximately 10 BCFPD."

"The cumulative shut-in gas production 8/26/05-9/30/05 is 196.481 BCF, which is equivalent to 5.383% of the yearly production of gas in the GOM (approximately 3.65 TCF)."

Average daily gas consumption in the U.S. is 61.414 BCFD. In other words, we have lost 13% of our natural gas supply. Gas production cannot be increased, and cannot be imported to make up for this shortfall. We have to reduce our gas consumption by 13%, which is a very large amount. The ONLY way that this will happen will be with significant increases in the price to create demand destruction.

If prices do not go up, we are 100% guaranteed to run out of gas this winter. Even with much higher prices, we are still very likely to run out of NG.

[valerief]

14. Gee, people will convert their home heating to oil

Funny how the oil industry always benefits.

[Missy M]

17. Believe me I would love to cut my demand for natural gas but....

living in the Northeast it is impossible in the winter. Even turning the thermostat down will not make up for such high price increases. I don't think people WANT to use the gas and pay the exorbitant prices, we have no choice. I still say the increases are outrageous and something should be done.

[HockeyMom]

26. Last year

at the beginning of the winter season (November) the gas company hit me for a $500 bill for six weeks and then it went down to about $175 a month. The electric company did exactly the same at the start of the summer/AC season. If they start with $1,000 for the first month, there is no way in hell I will be able to afford to pay that.

[BiggJawn]

18. 13%, eh?

That means if you have a 100-day heating season, you would need to shut down your furnace and cookstove and water heater for 13 days.
Hell, let's be REAL Patriotic and make it 2 weeks.

Who wants to tell Aunt Tillie which 13 days she's gonna have to cross her fingers that the pipes don't freeze?

What ticks me off about these Objectivist "Force of the Market" explanations is that they treat the need for essentials like they're a fucking trip to Bermuda or something.

13% reduction...I don't have very many contemporaries who are prone to leaving their windows open in the winter, y'know...

It's maddening, when you're already sqeezing the Nickel until TJ's eyes bug out to have somebody say "You gotta cut back more".

[ljaycox]

30. What if the demand is.....

inelastic. This is what worries me most. Demand destruction in the case of inelasticity is way more violent to the surrounding economy.

[SpiralHawk]

33. "Yes, yes, yes - EXACTly true" - BushCo & Oil Republicans

Open real wide and swallow the whole thing

[Strelnikov_]

20. Because Without 'Demand Destruction' We Would

In other words, Aunt Millie needs to be priced out of the market this winter so the McMansions houses of executives will not run out of gas.

So, remember, Aunt Millie did not freeze to death this winter, she simply destroyed demand.

Don't blame me. I have been preaching the failure of the market system regarding energy infrastructure planning here for a long time, to no avail. Once the market signals a problem (through high prices) for energy, it is too late. But every time I mention 'peak oil', the typical responses wrap around 'Corporatist plot'. Why can't it just be, like most things, Corporatist and governmental incompetence and short-sightedness.

If you really want some encouraging reading, check this out. As an Engineer, I was already not buying the media's happy talk about 'dodging a bullet'. We live in a resource limited world, and two powerful storms like Katrina and Rita are beyond available resources to recover from quickly.

http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/10/1/133556/179#more

Matt Simmons prediction of $10/gal gasoline this winter may not be that far off.

[YapiYapo]

28. Wonder why so few can see the problem.

Still blaming on some corporation or price gouging.Wake up will be hard.

[rustydad]

29. Yes exactly

We are at or very near Peak Natural Gas. And we have added lots of new gas fired power generation in the west plus goobs of 5-10,000 sq ft MacMansions. Natural gas like oil and it's products can be rationed by the government or rationed by the market. In the current political climate it is unlikely that we will see ration cards anytime soon. Instead we will see economic demand destruction. The poor will be out of luck and out of heat. There could be some demand destruction through efficiency, better insulation, lower thermostats etc. but that will be insufficient to meet the production falloff. We are on the downslope of peak gas IMO. Bob

[Dr Batsen D Belfry]

7. We were just informed of increases

in PA, but ours are not nearly as high. I think Equitable went up 22%, Dominion 24%, and I think Columbia was up around 40%.

I am curious as to the differences in increases. Why is PA only going up less than 50%, but the northwest is going up 70%?

DBDB

[markam]

10. Why is PA only going up less than 50%, but the northwest is going up 70%

They adjust prices quarterly. Expect another big increase come January 1.

[CountAllVotes]

8. I already got hit

went up ~70% - the entire bill that is ...

:grr:

[Barkley]

11. Why 71% higher? Did they lose 71% of offshore rigs? - nt

[mctrotter5]

12. Great time to look to Solar Cooking to cut our costs

and help the environment. Nobody controls the cost of the sun and the cookers are cheap to make. Welcome to the third world!

[Anywho6]

13. Louisville, KY: Gas heat bills to soar 64%

I've already sent some flannel sheets to my 66-year-old mother in Louisville--just a start to getting her ready for a long, cold winter.

<http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050930/NEWS01/509300362/1003/BUSINESS>

Friday, September 30, 2005

Gas heat bills to soar 64%
LG&E files for increase to take effect Nov. 1
By Bill Wolfe
[e-mail]
The Courier-Journal

Hurricane Katrina blew in $3 a gallon gasoline. Now come the heating bills.

Louisville Gas & Electric Co. told Kentucky regulators yesterday it needs to pass along higher natural gas prices from its suppliers. The typical gas customer who spreads the bill over 12 months would see the monthly average rise 64 percent, from $88 to $144, the company said.

"That's totally unbelievable. It's already costing an arm and a leg now," Jack Spivey, a Louisville appliance repairman, said yesterday when told of the pending increase.

The increase, expected to take effect Nov. 1, stems partly from Katrina's damage to gas-producing and distributing equipment on the Gulf Coast. But prices were already about 50 percent higher from a year earlier before the storms because of concerns about gas supplies for the winter. Nationally, experts expect prices to rise by about 77 percent, LG&E spokeswoman Laura Douglas said.

<snip>

[Historic NY]

15. Where I live in upstate NY they are expecting a 76% increase

not including electric. My utility company is getting out of natural gas distribution and we will be forced to buy it from other providers.
Thanks to Reagan with deregulation we are all getting screwed. I just retired and may have to go back to work to pay the utility bill, local taxes and obscene school taxes. :grr:

[TexasLawyer]

19. Seriously overstated damages

The Gulf of Mexico supplies 20% of total annual US natural gas supplies, but we only lost a portion of that production.

There was large-scale but short-term disruption of natural gas because of rig evacuation, shutting down processing plants etc... in anticipation of the storm, but the damage caused by Rita and Katrina was nowhere near what the industry suffered from Hurricane Ivan last year.

Check this out...


Oil industry escapes serious damage from Rita
Shift in hurricane's path limits impact on refineries, oil rigs

David J. Phillip / AP

MSNBC
Updated: 3:59 p.m. ET Sept. 26, 2005



Faced with the threat of a knockout blow from Hurricane Rita just days ago, the U.S. energy industry heaved a collective sigh of relief Sunday as initial assessments show only limited damage to oil and natural gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and the huge refining complexes clustered along the coast.

"We've been doing surveillance of the refineries; so far what we see is minimal damage and we hope that holds," David Paulison, acting director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said Sunday. "But we'll continue monitoring that to make sure that we can get those refineries back on line as quickly as possible."

That means energy consumers -- from motorists to airlines -- have apparently dodged the bullet of another sharp spike in prices.
“In the next several days you’ll probably see pump prices rise, reflecting the hiccup in the system we have to go through,” said John Kilduff, an energy analyst at FIMAT USA. “But it should be much lighter than we saw with Katrina.”

Price pressures in the energy markets are also expected to ease thanks to a short-term drop in demand. Despite temporary surges in demand from back-to-back storm evacuations, overall demand is tracking about 3 percent lower than this time last year, according to the latest figures form the U.S. Energy Information Administration. With hundreds of thousands displaced by Katrina and now Rita, normal driving patterns have been interrupted.

Refinery outages have also eased the demand for crude oil, prompting a pullback in prices. In a special NYMEX electronic trading session Sunday, U.S. crude oil futures were down over $1 to around $63 a barrel.

<snip>
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9480552/

INTERACTIVES & FACT FILES
• Oil industry escapes serious damage
• Refinery shutdowns
• U.S. businesses largely unscathed by Rita
• Most ConocoPhillips plants escape major Rita hit

[gulfcoastliberal]

21. Franklin/Rittenhouse Stoves?

Might want to get one. Cost about $400-$500.

[cliss]

37. What about propane?

I have a propane camping stove out in the garage. Can I use it indoors? It's actually a great stove. Propane heats up FAR better than my electric stove. Just 20 seconds, and your water is boiling.

What about propane heaters. I think they're called 'catalytic' converters.

Dangerous?

[gulfcoastliberal]

38. Propane produce Carbon Monoxide

I have a Coleman propane lantern and it warns not to use indoors or in sealed aeas. I know some propane heaters are specifically made to be used indoors - check em out. I think butane stoves are the only safe kind to use inside.

[Generator]

23. Oregon and Washington info

Only 12-15% increase here.

http://www.nwnatural.com/cms300/content_aboutus.asp?id=459

Please note: The recent hurricane activity will not impact gas prices this year because NW Natural buys much of its gas supply on longer term contracts.

[MissB]

31. I expect my bill to go down this year.

Even with the 12-15% increase. We insulated a lot this past year, plus replaced some very cold single-pane windows. Plus, we've turned down the thermostat to 65.

[kostya]

36. If you have a gas hot water heater, turn down its thermostat as well

to about 120F or a little higher. That will also save you a ton. And set your washer to Cold/Cold. Clothes will get just as clean.

If you don't have a gas hw heater, well... that better be your next project! :) - K

[kostya]

35. Note that the article says "average" increase...

I'm in Portland area and our equal pay just went up by over 16%. I'm sure that's only the beginning. Still, with such a mild climate here we get off a lot easier than those in the Mid-West and Northeast. Our total gas bill (heat and water) is only $600/yr even with the increase. - K

[DiverDave]

24. Just paid off the car, there goes THAT extra

money.

I am getting my chimmney swept, and am buying a cord of wood.

Although we cook and heat our water with gas...

This is gonna be an expensive winter.

[moondust]

32. Mine rose 31% between Sept 04 and Sept 05.

Cost of NG normally drops a bit from August to September I think due to seasonal adjustment. This year it jumped 13% in that one month.

Geez, can't wait.

[godai]

34. Washington Gas says 20-30% increase

Through reserving gas previously (30% of needs) and hedges (whatever they are), they have indicated a smaller increase this winter. Hope they are right. Maybe a well managed companay?

[phusion]

39. New Mexico info and chart

Looks like prices are projected to climb 30% from now until November.
http://www.pnm.com/customers/gas_cost.htm

Trend over the past 3 years:

http://www.pnm.com.nyud.net:8090/customers/images/gas_chart_083005.gif

By November the line will be at 114. That's about a 90%+ increase since June of this year.