Ousting Assad Without a Backup Plan--A Times

[Gloria]

From the new World Media Watch up at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical
Tomorrow at Buzzflash.com


2//Asia Times Online, Hong Kong Oct 5, 2005

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GJ05Ak01.html



OUSTING ASSAD WITHOUT A BACKUP PLAN

By Ehsan Ahrari

There are reports in the Western media that the inquiry of special UN investigator Deltev Mehlis into the assassination of Lebanon's former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, is nearing a conclusion. Four actors, who are either interested in it or will be affected by it, are driven by varying and somewhat conflicting agendas.

The US is hoping to use the Mehlis report to oust Syrian President Bashar Assad. Lebanon wants to use it to rehabilitate its national sovereignty. The Arab states are worried about the potential instability in Syria, which is next door to Iraq, and about the erosion of another Arab state that can pose even a semblance of challenge to Israel. Israel, on the contrary, is anticipating the removal of a thorn from its side. Then, it will only have to concentrate on confronting Iran.

The least-contemplated aspect of a potential regime change in Syria might be the potential rise of influence and potency of pan-jihadi forces in Syria, if the Assad regime is ousted with the same lack of regard to having a stable government taking its place as happened at the time of the US invasion of Iraq.

SNIP

But the Middle East as a region may not remain rosy if Assad is toppled. There is nothing pan-Jihadist forces of the Middle East wish at the current time more than seeing a widened area of chaos and turbulence. The more the powerful forces of America, or even Israel, get involved in establishing the Western (or as the Islamists would call the Judeo-Christian) version of order, the less their chances of success.

A safe option from the perspectives of order and stability would be that there is no regime change in Syria. If that were to happen under unavoidable circumstances, the UN and the international community should remain in charge in securing and stabilizing Syria. Iraq has proved how bloody the battle can become in attempting to occupy it. Syria is not likely to be any less bloody or chaotic.

[SharonAnn]

1. Sort of like ousting Saddam without a backup plan?

[lovuian]

2. They want syria and lebanon bad!!! Beachfront property!!!

and Israel's empire increases!!!

[struggle4progress]

3. Boy George gets bored when he's not creating new havoc. eom