STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 11 October

[ozymandius]

Tuesday October 11, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 102 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 295 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 359 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1416
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 10, 2005

Dow... 10,238.76 -53.55 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq... 2,078.92 -11.43 (-0.55%)
S&P 500... 1,187.33 -8.57 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.36% -0.01 (-0.11%)
Gold future... 478.00 +0.30 (+0.06%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

KILROY WAS HERE

This past weekend saw automotive parts giant Delphi file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection for its U.S. operations. For those who may be unaware, Delphi is the largest auto parts maker in the U.S. and it was ‘spun off’ from GM back in 1999. Like GM, Delphi has recently been publicly vocal about their legacy costs – citing the crippling effect of rising costs of health care benefits.

“Like GM, which is seeking changes in the health insurance portion of the contract, Delphi also has complained about the rising cost of health care. GM's annual bill for health care has increased 20 percent in a year, according to GM executives.”

-cut-

Would Everyone Not Be Affected The Same?

A great question to ask but in a land that espouses the virtues of ‘free trade’ and ‘free markets’ – if we look a little bit just under the surface – we can readily see that some companies or, shall we say, industries – are created a little more equal than others. In a seminal piece penned by Professor Robert Bell – we learn that some companies, and more specifically the defense establishment and their pension plans – are insulated from the vagaries of the market place as outlined in Professor Bell’s adroitly penned, The Invisible Hand (of the US Government) in Financial Markets:

-cut-

For all technicians out there – I would like to simply comment that what is presently occurring in financial markets today – is nothing more than history repeating itself – and I did not need a chart to discern any of this. I only needed to read a history book!

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil on rise after IEA says demand firm

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil climbed back above $62 on Tuesday after the International Energy Agency said it saw no lasting damage to global fuel demand that has pushed producers and refiners to the limit.

There have been signs recently that persistent high prices are taking their toll on the economies of the world's big consumers. Hurricanes that battered U.S. Gulf rigs and refiners catapulted oil to new record highs, finally crimping fuel use.

But the IEA forecast demand growth would quicken again to 1.75 million barrels per day next year "in part due to a rebound from the largely temporary impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and a recovery in Chinese demand."

"In all, the oil market appears to have adjusted rapidly to the hurricanes," said the IEA, adviser to 26 industrialized nations, in its monthly Oil Market Report.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Higher gas prices hit rural Americans hard

Where fill-ups are crucial, families face tough trade-offs: No Christmas presents for the Murphy kids.

LITTLETON, N.H. – Cheryl Murphy used to drive her Dodge Caravan as often as necessary to see her doctor in Lincoln, 25 miles south of her home here in the sparsely populated "North Country."

But that was before gas prices spiked, making fuel costs feel like a second co-pay for this single mother of two. Now that gas takes a 20 percent bite out of her monthly $243 check from Social Security, doctor visits have become a luxury out of reach.

"I don't monitor my health condition as well as I should because I just can't afford to get there," Ms. Murphy says. Meanwhile, she's cut down to one meal per day and has warned her children to expect nothing under the Christmas tree this year.

-cut-

"The rising gas prices are going to cause people real economic hardship" in rural areas, says Timothy Slack, a Louisiana State University sociologist who has studied the rural poor. Many, however, are reluctant to seek help, he adds. "Especially in rural areas, independence and self- sufficiency are important values. Reaching out to government and saying, 'My family and I can't make it' - that's hard."

more...

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1011/p02s01-ussc.html

[54anickel]

6. Squeezing Americans dry

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=47384

With rising inflation and debt payments, the household budgets of all of us are being squeezed. The picture does not look pretty.

Let’s first look at inflation. Signs of rising prices – the way in which we are most influenced by inflation – are everywhere. Regular gas now costs over $3 a gallon, insurance and property tax bills are escalating, and staggering home heating costs will definitely keep Santa from coming down the chimney this Christmas. Natural gas prices are particularly worrisome as they push up the price of electricity, anything plastic, and the general cost of manufacturing. For 2006, the big effect of hurricanes Katrina and Rita will be the needed excuse to raise the cost of insuring a home by 10 to 30 percent (depending on where the lucky homeowner lives). Rising diesel prices push up the cost of goods on every store shelf because they have to be trucked in. The CPI data for September, scheduled for release shortly, is likely to show an annual rate of increase, over September 2004, of at least 4 percent.

So, how bad is inflation? In the past year, the wages and salaries of American workers have not kept up with inflation. If the CPI (currently at 4 percent) was honest and included rising housing prices and did not over-indulge in hedonic price adjustment, 5.5 to 6 percent would be the actual reported number. Bottom line: Americans are being squeezed by prices rising faster than income. As the winter heating bills pile up and rising manufacturing and shipping costs make their way to store shelves, our loss of purchasing power will only get worse.

snip>

Even before this big squeeze of rising costs, most of us couldn’t afford to save. The question now is, “can the consumer afford to spend?” The latest government figures from August show consumption was down by 1 percent, and earnings before inflation were also down. Auto sales figures just released by GM and Ford for September show the sales of Sport Utility Vehicles collapsing by 50 percent.

Borrowing against the house, which has fueled increased consumption over the last decade, must now be used to pay higher bills for buying less. If we can no longer afford to save or borrow, it’s likely we will no longer be able to spend. If the consumer cuts back, it means recession.

more...

[ozymandius]

58. How can a recession be avoided? Bondad says it probably can't.

The Consumer Squeeze of 2005

Let's start at the beginning:

Wages

After inflation, wage growth has been nearly stagnant since Bush took office. Production level hourly wages - which represent about 80% of the US workforce - were $14.27/hour in January 2001 and $16.18 in August 2005 for an increase of 13.38%. Over the same period, the inflation index increase for 175.1 to 196.4 for an increase of 12.16%. This makes the 4½ year wage increase 1.22%.

-cut-

Energy

Energy prices are skyrocketing. Jerome wrote an excellent diary on this a few days ago. Of particular importance is the increases are not just in the colder areas of the country but instead all over the US. According to yesterday's USA Today: U.S. households can expect to pay sharply higher monthly heating bills this winter, with the increases ranging from 45% to 90% in much of the country, utility companies and weather forecasters warn.

-cut-

Consumer Debt

Consumers are already indebted at record levels. Households' debt service ratio which are "an estimate of the ratio of debt payments to disposable personal income" hit a record levels in the second quarter of 2005. Moreover, consumers have gone on a debt acquisition strategy for the last 5 years:

more, including relevant links...

[AnneD]

64. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Wicked cartoon. The article on rural America and the above are truly what is going on in middle America today. I lived the rural experience. I had a good job but it was rough and I am sure it is now rougher. Look for more family farms to go under. This is like the Great Depression except the bidnesses are not going under to the degree they were (they just jetison more workers).

[AnneD]

66. Addendum

I think companies will soon go under eventually, but they will jetison as many workers as they can first so they can get the golden parachutes (while we, of course, get the golden screw).

[UpInArms]

67. Hi AnneD!

I live in rural America - where it is 30 miles one way to a decent grocery store (the others nearer sell green meat and brown lettuce). A friend of mine was telling me just this past weekend about how the price of gas is negatively affecting all of the farmers and small town inhabitants - getting to the doctors, hospitals, harvesting crops, etc.

It's going to get really ugly out here this winter when the heating bills start piling up (many propane or LNG tanks behind the houses and work buildings are going to cost up to 90% more than last year to fill). These are people that pride themselves on their independence and ability to "weather" it out.

Just moving a big bale of hay to feed cattle is going to cost about $4.00 more (those tractors get dreadful mileage).

I saw where Colorado just had its first snowstorm early.

[AnneD]

82. Hi UIA,

I lived in that little slice of heaven called Cloudcroft NM. The nearest city was 16 mi down a 9k ft drop (and up). Alamogordo was the only place I know where you could have money in your pocket to spend and not find what you need. I have gone into Burger King and not been able to get a Whopper. I have gone into a lumber yard and not been able to get a 2x4. It was 2 hrs to Las Cruses and 2 1/2. Consequently, I became the catalogue queen.
In addition, health care and mental health care was a nightmare. I had a construction worker fall 18 ft in our gym. Took our volunteer EMS 30 min to get there. They managed to get him stable enough to evac to Albaquerque. But if there had been a snowstorm, he would have been SOL.
I am glad my daughter had the small town experience, but it is not for the faint of heart. Sadly, I am doing much better financially than I was. I would go back in a minute, but it is not good for my bottomline.

[54anickel]

26. Health Insurance - Survey sees a leap in 2006, then steady rises

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3390748

snip>

Houston companies paid 10.6 percent more this year to medically insure workers than they did in 2004, Hewitt's survey found.

That's more than the national average of 9.2 percent, but not as sharp of a spike as they experienced last year — 14.5 percent, according to the survey. Next year, the jump nationwide is expected to be just 9.9 percent, according to Hewitt.

Specifically, local companies paid an average of $7,798 per employee for health coverage in 2005, compared with $7,323 paid by companies nationwide.

The survey's figures are good news for Houston workers, who likely will continue to see increases in their health care costs but not the big double-digit jumps they saw earlier this decade, Gary Laugharn, Hewitt's regional client leader, said.

The same culprits are causing the continued increases, he said.

more...

Oh happy, happy, the costs are still rising just not in the double digits anymore cuz the expectation is 9.9% Mamma, put on yer dancin' shoes!!! I'm getting dizzy from all this spinning.

[llmart]

83. Didn't rural Americans.......

think Bush was their savior and didn't they vote for him?

Hmmm...Wish I could summon up some sympathy, but can't.

[54anickel]

98. No, not all. I consider myself a "rural American" and I can guarantee

you that I did NOT vote for the lil' SOB and neither did most of my neighbors, but we'd sure appreciate a bit of sympathy rather than being cast into some stereo-type.

Edit to add:

Please don't propogate the Rovian spin. They'd like you to believe every "group" voted for the idiot...Someone's gotta prove to me he got any damned votes - it was all part of the lies and spins to get folks feeling there were on the outside if they weren't "fer Bush". Remember all the bumper stickers?

Sportsmen for Bush
Farmers for Bush
Ranchers for Bush
Race Fans for Bush
I saw one that said Decomcrat for Bush

[llmart]

121. Geez...

why do you have to get so upset over what I said? I know YOU didn't vote for him, but I think it's safe to say that the majority of rural voters voted for him. I live in a rural area and there was nothing but Bush/Cheney signs/bumper stickers everywhere - still are some. I live in a "blue" state, but it was the rural areas that voted for Bush.

It was a generalization - I didn't say ALL rural voters voted for Bush.

[AnneD]

118. Hi IImart,

I will also add that the DEM's got lazy and were too busy playing the numbers to visit the rural states. Bush made 3 trips to Gore's one. You need to ask people for their vote and tell them why they should vote for you. DEM's act like they have written off the rural vote. It sure as heck won't take much to win them back over. They are independent populist at heart.

[llmart]

122. I agree with you.

I do think both Gore and Kerry actually won, but it wouldn't have been so close and so easy to steal if they had been more "real" with the people. After all, that's why Clinton was a huge success. He was and is just plain "real" and real people can relate to him.

[UpInArms]

34. Nov Crude @ $62.55 bbl - Nov NatGas @ $13.25 mln btus

10:03am 10/11/05 NOV CRUDE CLIMBS 75C TO $62.55/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:03am 10/11/05 NOV NATURAL GAS UP 27.5C, OR 2.1%, AT $13.25/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

42. American Gas Asso. see average NatGas bill up 50% for the winter

10:45am 10/11/05 AMERICAN GAS ASSOC. SAYS GULF GAS OUTAGES WILL HIT PRICES

10:46am 10/11/05 AGA SEES AVERAGE U.S. NATURAL GAS BILL UP 50% THIS WINTER

[UpInArms]

59. Nov Crude @ $62.95 (up $1.15) bbl

11:38am 10/11/05 NOV CRUDE UP $1.15, OR 1.9%, AT $62.95 IN AFTERNOON TRADE

[UpInArms]

78. Nov Crude "sporting a $63.20/bbl pricetag"

per the 12:30 blather

"sporting" isn't that such a jaunty term :sarcasm:

[UpInArms]

101. Nov Crude closes @ $63.53 bbl

3:00pm 10/11/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT A ONE-WEEK HIGH, UP $1.73 AT $63.53/BRL

[UpInArms]

112. Crude futures close at a one-week high; natural gas up 4.2%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38636.6412121181-845527303&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- November crude rose $1.73, or 2.8%, to close at a one-week high of $63.53 a barrel in New York. "Crude oil is up on the fact that traders feel the market fell too far for current fundamental supply and demand factors," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service. "Last week we did see a decline in inventories, and the prospects exist for another decline this week." November natural gas ended the day at $13.519 per million British thermal units, up 4.2%. Prices are at their highest since Wednesday, a total reversal from Monday's close at a two-week low.

[ozymandius]

3. We're getting Enron'd. (part 317)

Oil industry rides high energy prices to big profits

The high energy prices causing drivers intense pain at the pump certainly aren't hurting the oil industry's profits.

Hurricane damage and global supply-and-demand imbalances caused oil to end the third quarter up 33% from a year earlier. Although crude prices have pulled back the past week, the third quarter was already in the books and the windfall from high crude prices will soon become clear as energy companies report their quarterly results.

"As you get a high oil price, it feeds quickly to higher earnings," says Tim Guinness, portfolio manager of the Guinness Atkinson Global Energy fund.While it'll be weeks before all of the energy companies report their earnings, the numbers promise to be dazzling. Earnings at the energy companies in the Standard & Poor's 1500 index are expected to jump 61% in the third quarter, dwarfing the 14.4% growth expected from the broad S&P 1500, S&P says.

How much of that is hurricane-related? Third-quarter earnings estimates for the energy sector are up 7.8% since Katrina hit. But not all pockets of the energy business benefited equally.

more

[54anickel]

5. So have they re-indexed the incides yet to hold more energy related

stocks?

[54anickel]

7. Legacy of debt and delusion

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=47323

October 7, 2005
Tim Iacono is a software engineer working in Southern California and publishes the blog, “The Mess that Greenspan Made.”



In recent months, much has been written about the legacy of Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who, after eighteen years, will retire in January. Most of the legacy discussion has been based on the steady hand of the Fed Chairman - a steady hand that has resulted in an era of low reported inflation and mild recessions, while fostering sustained growth through what many have hailed as superb monetary policy.

Others don't see it that way.

Some believe that the Greenspan legacy will be one of debt and delusion - debt of all kinds piled high, lingering far into the future, and delusion in reflecting back, at how we have all behaved during recent years.

Debt

Debt is "money owed". It is present today in huge quantities, for everyone to see - not too many people seem to care. As long as asset prices rise faster than personal debt and there are buyers for U.S. Treasuries, debt just doesn't seem to matter. It just keeps piling up.

It is as if it never has to be paid back.

more...

[54anickel]

8. Much better now, thanks

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

"House prices have gone up a lot," Bernanke said.

He even said there were reasons that housing prices had gone up a lot, and that they were good reasons. Because housing prices don’t often go up a lot, it’s encouraging that Bernanke found some good reasons for their levitation. Just last summer the Economist reminded us that when professor Robert Shiller looked at American home price data, Shiller found that housing prices rose on average just 0.4% a year in real terms from 1890 through 2004. So when Bernanke says, “House prices have gone up a lot” lately, it’s a pretty big deal.

snip>

"We've never had a decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis," Bernanke said, intimating that a drop property values is about as likely as FOX stealing programming ideas from the History Channel.

And that is exactly the no-nonsense kind of rhetoric we like to hear from a Fed Chairman-in-the-Running, and it’s just the inspiration needed to persuade Americans with giant home equity loans that they can raise the blanket enough to let light in under the covers. That’s the case even though when Benanke says “never,” as in “We’ve never had a decline in housing prices,” he’s using “Fed Speak” which really means, “We’ve never had a decline in housing prices since the Depression.” Still, a little comfort is better than all encompassing paranoia accompanied by bouts of itching.

snip>

Anytime one person says that the price of anything has gone up at its fastest rate in history, and another person says that the price of that same entity won’t ever go down, most World Famous Poker Champions would bet on the first person, particularly if the second happens to be the same guy who thinks that dropping American currency from a helicopter is sound monetary policy.

Another reason that the leveraged classes may continue to sleep with the lights on despite Bernanke’s mellow assurances is because it’s not really about the housing bubble.

more...

[54anickel]

18. Feldstein May Have Top Credentials, Biggest Liabilities for Fed

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=ac5.6hQ73WME&refer=us

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein may have the best credentials to succeed Alan Greenspan as Federal Reserve chairman. He may also have the biggest liabilities.

The 65-year-old Feldstein, a free-market Republican who served as President Ronald Reagan's top White House economist from 1982 to 1984, is one of a handful of economists Wall Street considers suitable to replace Greenspan, 79, whose term at the Fed expires Jan. 31.

``One of the five leading economists in America,'' says Barry Bosworth, a senior economist at the Brookings Institution who served as director of the Council on Wage and Price Stability during President Jimmy Carter's administration.

At the same time, Feldstein's prospects may be harmed by his association with American International Group Inc., a scandal- plagued insurance company where he has been a director for 17 years, as well as a reputation for not being politically astute.

snip>

Feldstein finished second only to Ben Bernanke, chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, when 104 financial professionals were asked last month to name Greenspan's most likely successor. Bernanke got 38 percent of the vote and Feldstein 31 percent in the survey, which was conducted by Stone & McCarthy Research Associates, a Princeton, New Jersey, consulting company. No other candidate received more than 10 percent.

more...

[54anickel]

9. Companies have not been in such shape since the Depression

$88 billion in debt may become junk

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3387898

snip>

Hertz Corp., the world's largest car rental firm, and radio broadcaster Clear Channel Communications are among 46 companies that probably will be categorized as noninvestment grade, according to credit-rating company Standard & Poor's.

A surge in debt-financed takeovers and concern that higher oil prices will hurt profit growth is eviscerating credit quality in the $5 trillion market for corporate bonds, according to some strategists.

Investors face greater risks, while companies once considered safe and now classified as so-called "fallen angels" may see borrowing costs rise.

Not since the Depression of 1929 has corporate America received so many black eyes. General Motors, the world's largest automaker, Sears Holdings Corp., the biggest U.S. department store chain, and Eastman Kodak Co., the largest photography company, led 27 borrowers whose $499 billion of outstanding debt obligations suffered the ignominy of being downgraded to junk.

snip>

Fallen angels default at almost twice the rate of companies that never had investment-grade ratings, and seven of 10 stay junk, S&P said in a March study analyzing 24 years of data. The junk bond market is about $1 trillion in size.

more...

[Changenow]

10. The economy is strong,

the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong, the economy is strong.

It's the truth now.

[JNelson6563]

28. Thank you for doing what needed to be done

Somebody had to say it often enough to make it true. Thanks for saving the economy.

:toast:

[54anickel]

29. Business Bankruptcies Rise 20% in 3rd Quarter

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-bankrupt11oct11,1,5273992.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Business bankruptcies rose almost 20% at the busiest U.S. courts last quarter as companies such as Delphi Corp. and Northwest Airlines Inc. sought protection from creditors before a new law will force them to accelerate reorganization plans.

"Anybody that is thinking about filing a bankruptcy case would be crazy not to take advantage of the old law," said Kenneth Klee, a partner at Klee Tuchin Bogdanoff & Stern in Los Angeles who teaches business bankruptcy at UCLA Law School.

Starting Oct. 17, companies will be limited to 18 months to fashion reorganization plans. The law, signed in April by President Bush, also will cap compensation designed to keep executives from leaving and limit to 210 days the time companies have to reject real estate leases.

Business bankruptcy filings since July 1 were 19.5% higher than in the previous three months, according to data compiled on 30 of the 85 U.S. courts that supervise reorganizations and liquidations. The period included the September bankruptcies of Northwest Airlines Corp. and Delta Air Lines Inc. and the filing Saturday by auto-parts maker Delphi.

more...

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.66 Change +0.20 (+0.22%)

Dollar firms as investors await Fed minutes

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T093149Z_01_L11421097_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-3.XML

LONDON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Expectations of higher interest rates lifted the dollar and weakened government bonds on Tuesday, while European and Japanese stocks ignored overnight losses on Wall Street and rose.

Tokyo's Nikkei posted its biggest on-day gain in a year.

Investors were waiting for minutes, due to be released later in the day, from the Federal Reserve's Sept. 20 meeting for more guidance about how long the U.S. central bank would continue its cycle of raising interest rates.

Recent hawkish comments from Fed officials have raised the prospect of higher rates than originally expected. One result has been support for the dollar. The U.S. currency was broadly firmer ahead of the minutes, with the euro struggling on concern that a coalition pact between Germany's main political parties might dilute reforms. It was down 0.3 percent at $1.2037 per euro.

The dollar was up 0.2 percent at 113.86 yen. A rise above 114.42 would bring the U.S. currency to its highest level against the yen since mid-2004.

"The Fed minutes are one reason why the dollar has bounced back. The message could actually be pretty hawkish," said Paul Mackel, currency strategist at ABN AMRO in London.

...more...

Dollar Pushes Majors Toward 2005 Key Levels

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4100&Itemid=39

Dollar remains a weapon of choice In the currency market, but it all comes down to selecting the proper targets, you don’t want to miss because a miss in any market will cost the trade and unless you are an institutional trader with a lot more resources, this trader believes that the ammunition should be saved. Wars are won by fighting, but the conflict can be resolved by one well placed hit, so choose your targets carefully and don’t shoot yourself when pulling the “trigger” on a trade.

<snip>

EUR/USD – Euro bulls gave up more ground to the advancing dollar longs as greenback forces managed to take back the territory that was lost during the last week’s anti-dollar rally. As the pair once again approaches the psychologically important 1.2000 handle, a collapse of the single currency defenses will most likely see the greenback bulls push their way toward the 1.1979, a level marked by the September 27 daily high. A further collapse of the euros defenses will most likely see the dollar longs make their way toward the 1.1876, a critical level marked by the 2005 low, with further breakdown targeting the 1.1760, a 2004 low and a gateway to the psychologically important 1.1500 handle. Indicators are favoring the dollar bulls with both momentum indicator and MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give wither side enough room to maneuver.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs remained confined to a tight trading range as the price action continued to orbit the 114.00 handle. A move to the upside will most likely see the greenback longs take on the 114.92, a 2005 high and a gateway toward the psychologically important 115.00 handle, and with a further move to the upside most likely seeing the pair head toward the 115.76, a level marked by the September 4, 2003, thus negating the advance made by the Japanese yen longs for the past two years. However given a narrow channel setup that has dominated the price action in the pair since September, a break to the downside will most likely see the Japanese yen longs take on the greenback defenses around the 113.00 figure and with sustained momentum to the upside taking on the dollar defenses around 112.62, a level marked by the August 8 daily high. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, however an overbought Stochastic gives the yen longs a chance to retaliate.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Delphi seen moving pensions to US agency -analysts

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-10T220536Z_01_N10404143_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DELPHI-PENSION.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Auto parts supplier Delphi Corp. (DPH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) is very likely to push its pension obligations over to a federal insurer as part of its bankruptcy proceedings, analysts said on Monday.

But with the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. (PBGC) already burdened by a $23.3 billion deficit, Delphi's troubles raise pressure on Congress to pass legislation that tries to avoid an eventual taxpayer bailout of the PBGC, these analysts said.

Troy, Michigan-based Delphi filed for bankruptcy on Saturday, a day after the U.S. Senate left for a one-week recess without finishing legislation aimed at strengthening the funding of traditional pensions and the PBGC.

The nation's largest auto parts supplier, Delphi has not said what it intends to do with its pension plan, which it had said is $4.3 billion underfunded.

"When a company is in sufficiently dire straits, there obviously is tremendous pressure to terminate the plan and shift pension liabilities like these to the PBGC," said Mark Iwry, pensions expert at the Brookings Institution think-tank.

...more...

[UpInArms]

109. US estimates Delphi pensions underfunded by $10.8 bln

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T190647Z_01_WBT004017_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DELPHI-PENSIONS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Pension plans at bankrupt auto parts supplier Delphi Corp. (DPHIQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) are underfunded by an estimated $10.8 billion, the federal agency that insures corporate retirement accounts said on Tuesday.

Should Delphi decide to terminate its pensions during Chapter 11, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp. said it would only insure less than half of the shortfall, $4.1 billion.

More of that privatizing profits and socializing losses crap.

[UpInArms]

13. Signs of a slowdown emerge in U.S. housing market

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-11T123601Z_01_N10424933_RTRIDST_0_PROPERTY-SLOWDOWN.XML

SAN DIEGO/SAN FRANCISCO, Oct 11 (Reuters) - On a rolling San Diego street, where home prices have doubled in three years, real estate agent Shawn Ommid kept a quiet vigil, chocolate chip cookies at the ready, waiting for buyers.

By Sunday afternoon, the cookies remained plentiful and prospects were scarce, with few turning up to tour a two-story tract house in a neighborhood known for its striking canyon views and equally stunning home prices of around $800,000.

"It's a shame because it's better to be a buyer now," said Ommid, citing a rise in San Diego home listings.

It is a scene that is playing out across some of the hottest property markets from California to Florida.

Inventories of unsold homes are rising, buyers are turning cautious, and, in some cases, prices are slipping after a period of explosive gains, analysts and real estate agents said.

That could be a sign that the broader U.S. housing market, which has been an engine of economic expansion, is beginning to sputter. The slowdown could dampen consumer spending and ripple through financial markets.

Other danger signs include the pinch buyers are facing from rising interest rates and record home prices, said economist Alan Gin of the Burnham-Moores Center for Real Estate at the University of San Diego.

...more...

[Zynx]

22. The California real estate market will correct painfully.

It is so far out of sync with reality that it can't simply wait for fundamentals to catch up to it, but it must face price deflation on a massive scale.

[54anickel]

30. The wealthy hear thud of lower values

http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/columnists/all/stories/DN-dimartino_10bus.ART.State.Edition1.9479d0d.html

snip>

'Frothy' no more?

Sure, you may be saying, but these are just the "frothy" markets that Alan Greenspan has been talking about.

They have no bearing on the economy at large.

Oh yeah?

Then why the audible swoon among the nation's high-end retailers?

It could have something to do with the disproportionate amount of spending power wielded by the "haves."

Look at it this way: The average 50- to 59-year-old in this country has saved less than $100,000 toward retirement. But the top 10 percent of income earners in the same age bracket have amassed 10 times that much.

Something tells me the real estate boom has made the rich even richer, which makes sense – the highest-end properties have risen in value much more than middle- and low-end homes.

more...

[MARALE]

14. Crude climbs in early trade

Crude for November delivery was last up 77 cents, or 1.3%, at $62.57 a barrel.

The contract closed below $61 a barrel on Monday after touching a low of $60.77, its lowest level since late July, on concerns about slowing demand as the recovery effort in the hurricane-battered Gulf region progresses and the hurricane season draws to a close.

...

"Lost US crude production has so far been offset by reduced refinery throughput, while product output losses have been partially balanced by reduced domestic demand, higher imports and stock draws," the report said. "Of these the sharp 2.3% decline in September US product demand triggered by the hurricanes has captured the market attention."

Separately, the General Administration of Customs said China imported 10.85 million metric tons of crude oil in September, or 2.65 million barrels a day, up 4.8% on year, Dow Jones Newswires report from Beijing.


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B87295024%2DF4DA%2D4BE0%2D9099%2DF2F58BF5AF35%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=


It seems that China is taking up the slack. Oil will not go down for long because of the global demand that is growing rapidly. Does anyone have the percentages of usage by country? I think it would be interesting to see how much China has risen lately.

[UpInArms]

15. Levi Strauss third-quarter net falls

(This is the "venerable" US company that has outsourced every bit of it manufacturing, raised its prices and now attempts to sell crap that doesn't even resemble the clothing that it once made.)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=marketsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051011:MTFH53582_2005-10-11_12-15-33_WEN0792:1

CHICAGO, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Jeans maker Levi Strauss & Co. on Tuesday posted lower quarterly net income due to higher taxes, while revenue was lower than the company expected.

The privately held apparel maker said net income was $38.2 million in the fiscal third quarter ended Aug. 28, compared with $46.6 million a year earlier.

[UpInArms]

16. Game company to shut down distribution center, laying off 349

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/breaking_news/12868548.htm

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

WEST CHESTER, Pa. - Electronics Boutique will lay off 349 workers with the closure of its Chester County distribution center next year, bringing to a total of about 700 the number of layoffs announced by the company within the past week.

The game-maker's $12.2 million distribution center opened in October 2004 in the Bellaire Business Center in Sadsbury Township with the help of a $4.1 million state incentive package.

Employees were told in a series of meetings Monday that layoffs will begin Feb. 1, and all 349 full-time workers will be laid off by next summer.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Today's Report:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Oct 11	2:00 PM	FOMC Minutes	Sep 20	-	-	-	-	-

[UpInArms]

87. FOMC worried pause might signal growth concerns

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BE8E4803F-4EFD-4575-B015-CB08279D1BA9%7D&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal Reserve officials argued against holding interest rates steady at their Sept. 20 meeting, saying financial markets would think the Fed was more concerned about the economy, and less worried about inflation, that they actually were, according to a summary of the meeting released on Tuesday. Only one official, Fed governor Mark Olson, voted to hold rates steady until more data was available on how Hurricane Katrina would impact the economy. The majority of Fed officials said they did not believe the longer-term growth path of the economy was affected by the hurricane, but did think upside risks to inflation had increased. At the same time, there was "some sentiment" among members to change the Fed language that policy was accommodative and could be removed at a measured pace, "in part because of the considerable reduction in monetary policy accommodation that had already been accomplished."

1:56pm 10/11/05 FOMC: FED STAFF HIKES CORE INFLATION FORECAST FOR 2006

1:56pm 10/11/05 FOMC: SOME SAID FED POLICY NO LONGER SO ACCOMMODATIVE

1:56pm 10/11/05 FOMC: SOME MEMBERS WANTED CHANGES IN FOWARD-LOOKING LANGUAGE

1:56pm 10/11/05 FOMC: INFLATION CONCERN HIGHER IN RUNUP TO SEPT 20 MEETING

1:56pm 10/11/05 FOMC: OLSEN WANTED PAUSE TO ASSESS HURRICANE IMPACT

1:56pm 10/11/05 FOMC: MARKET MIGHT HAVE VIEWED PAUSE AS CONCERN ABOUT GROWTH

1:56pm 10/11/05 FOMC FEARED PAUSE ON SEPT. 20 MIGHT MISLEAD MARKETS

[MARALE]

90. The Market is surprised again!

Did not expect this from the FOMC. I think they were building it up so the fall would not look so bad. It is dropping like a rock now. Now it is up again, where is that buy, buy, buy...sell, sell, sell animation?

[gratuitous]

19. What a wicked cartoon!

Luckovich = Home Run.

[UpInArms]

20. pre-opening blather

9:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures trade continues to suggest a higher open for the equity market. A host of analyst upgrades has perhaps contributed to the early bullish sentiment and helped provide traders with a reason to snatch bargains left in the wake of respective 3.2%, 3.4%, and 3.5% declines in the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq over the past six sessions. Amongst stocks enjoying raised investment opinions are IBM, CEG, EIX, ERTS, HDI, and BMET; the latter three issues have each jumped more than 2.0% in early trading.

8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Stocks remain set to start modestly higher, with traders digesting last night's earnings reports alongside an early 1.3% rise in crude (+$0.83 $62.63 ) and a 1.1% uptick in gasoline (+$0.020 $1.821). Separately, investors await the 2:00 ET release of minutes from the FOMC's Sept. 20 meeting, and post-close Q3 earnings reports from Apple Computer (AAPL) and Advanced Micro (AMD). Apple has guided EPS of $0.28 (consensus $0.24); Advanced Micro expects sales below the $1.34 bln consensus, and analysts foresee EPS of $0.14.

8:05AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. The cash market is poised for a higher start today, as a better-than-expected earnings report from Dow component Alcoa (AA), as well as from biotech mainstay Genentech (DNA), have helped traders turn their focus to the Q3 earnings season that is expected to reflect aggregate earnings growth of 15%. After yesterday's closing bell, Alcoa delivered Q3 EPS of $0.33 (consensus $0.29), on revenues that rose 12.9% to $6.57 bln (ocnsensus $6.54 bln). Genentech, meanwhile, reported Q3 EPS a nickel head of expectations ($0.35), on sales that increased 45.8% to $1.75 bln (consensus $1.63 bln), alongside increased full-year guidance.

[UpInArms]

21. US Treasuries dip as market looks to Fed minutes

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T131227Z_01_N11322100_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries were slightly lower early Tuesday, as traders anticipated the release of hawkish minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting.

The market is particularly interested in Fed Gov. Mark Olson's vote at the Sept. 20 meeting to keep rates steady at a time when the Fed seems so clearly focused on fighting inflationary pressures with further interest rate increases.

While the Fed raised official short-term interest rates by a quarter-percentage-point to 3.75 percent at that meeting, Olson's dissenting vote was the first for the Federal Open Market Committee since mid-2003.

But whatever Olson's motivation, few in the market doubt the Fed's resolve to raise interest rates as underlying economic strength and energy-related inflation related to Hurricane Katrina rear their heads. Virtually everyone in the market says yields are marching higher.

...more...

[UpInArms]

31. Check-Kiting Continues: Fed adds reserves to system through overnight RPs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T135048Z_01_N11427451_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it was adding temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 3.750 percent, the Fed's target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

See for recent Fed open market operations.

[UpInArms]

49. More Check-Kiting: US Treasury to sell $10 bln 4-week bills Wednesday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T150854Z_01_WBT004010_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-ANNOUNCEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday said it will sell $10.0 billion of four-week bills on Wednesday, Oct. 12.

The four-week bills will be issued on Oct. 13.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund about $8.0 billion of publicly held bills maturing Oct. 13 and to raise new cash of about $2.0 billion.

The four-week bills announced on Tuesday mature Nov. 10. Treasury said the net long position reporting threshold is $3.50 billion.

Noncompetitive bids on the four-week bill offering must be received 11:00 a.m. EDT (1500 GMT) and competitive bids by 11:30 a.m. EDT (1530 GMT).

...more...

[UpInArms]

56. More Check-Kiting: US to sell $13 bln 5-year notes, $8 bln 10-yr TIPS

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T152302Z_01_WBT004009_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-NOTES-ANNOUNCEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury on Tuesday said it will sell $13 billion of five-year notes on Oct. 12 and $8 billion of reopened nine-year nine-month 1-7/8 percent inflation-protected securities, or TIPS, on Oct. 13.

The five-year notes will be issued Oct. 17 and mature Oct. 15, 2010. Treasury said the net long position reporting threshold is $4.55 billion.

The CUSIP for the five-year bills is 912828EJ5.

The nine-year nine-month 1-7/8 percent TIPS will be issued Oct. 17 and mature July 15, 2015. Treasury said the net long position reporting threshold is $2.80 billion.

The CUSIP for the TIPS is 912828EA4.

Treasury said up to $1 billion in noncompetitive bids from Foreign and International Monetary Authority accounts will be included within the offering amount of the auction. Those bids will have a limit of $100 million per account.

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. U.S. Treasury to announce budget data Oct. 14

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T140709Z_01_WBT004007_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BUDGET-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Tuesday said it will announce budget data on Friday, Oct. 14, at 2:30 p.m. for September and the full 2005 fiscal year.

For August, the United States posted a $49.98 billion budget deficit, slightly more than expected, as record high outlays for the month outpaced record high receipts.

[UpInArms]

97. Treasury losses extended after release of hawkish Fed view

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38636.5931816667-845523501&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Treasury price declines deepened following the release of mostly hawkish comments offered by Fed members at their gathering last month, a view that leaves the door open to higher interest rates. The benchmark 10-year note was recently down 9/32 at 98 27/32, yielding 4.39% vs. 4.35% Monday. The majority of Fed officials said last month that they did not believe the longer-term growth path of the economy was affected by the hurricane, but did think upside risks to inflation had increased, according to minutes from that meeting released Tuesday. Inflation erodes the value of bond investments.

[54anickel]

23. Read the Tea Leaves: China Will Be Top Exporter

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/11/business/worldbusiness/11tea.html?pagewanted=1

snip>

While the growth of China's textile industry with the end of global textile quotas has attracted more attention as a threat to poor countries, China's tea industry also poses a challenge to some of the world's poorest nations. China is now poised to become the world's largest tea exporter by tonnage, overtaking Sri Lanka this year and Kenya next year.

Wide swaths of people across Asia depend on the tea industry for survival. Particularly vulnerable are countries that suffered from the tsunami last December: Indonesia, India and above all Sri Lanka, where income from the growing, processing and transport of tea helps feed nearly a tenth of the people, according to the Asian Development Bank.

snip>

For the last three years, Beijing has set as its top goal the alleviation of rural poverty and high income inequality between coastal cities and rural areas, to the benefit of the tea industry. Municipal and provincial governments now vie to offer subsidies to an industry seen as an answer to lingering poverty and unemployment in the countryside, and are paying up to half the cost for the planting of new tea farms and the building of tea-processing factories.

snip>

China's surge in tea caught many off guard. Tea growers in India, Sri Lanka and Indonesia invested in new processing equipment to produce green tea instead of black tea only to discover recently that China has become their looming competitor.

They are only now beginning to see the giant steps, like investing in infrastructure, that China is making to improve its tea-making capability.

Such advanced infrastructure far outpaces tea growers in India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, Indonesia and other countries who make do with dirt roads and repeated power failures. The wide roads here lower costs to ship in diesel fuel to power the processing factories and ship out tea; electricity failures, a problem last year, have faded here as more generating plants are built.

more...

[UpInArms]

24. Wyeth to shut factory as Premarin sales plunge

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T133318Z_01_WEN0814_RTRIDST_0_HEALTH-WYETH-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Drugmaker Wyeth (WYE.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday said it plans by late 2008 to halt all operations at its plant in Rouses Point, New York, due to plunging demand for the company's Premarin female hormone replacement medicine, which is made there.

The Madison, New Jersey, company said it will begin work force reductions there in 2006 that will continue for three years. Meanwhile, Wyeth said it will try to identify a buyer for the site.

"This announcement is part of Wyeth's continuing assessment and realignment of its manufacturing network designed to create more efficient operating processes and full production capacity at its plants," said Wyeth, which makes many other prescription drugs, including depression treatment Effexor.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. 9:41 EST open to give the bidness

Dow 10,290.47 +51.71 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,083.70 +4.78 (+0.23%)
S&P 500 1,192.12 +4.79 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.365 +0.04 (+0.09%)

NYSE Volume 125,808,000
Nasdaq Volume 98,517,000

(adding blather on edit)

9:40AM: As futures trade had foretold, the cash market opened on the upside, launching each of the major indices and nine of ten economic sectors on positive ground. A better-than-expected earnings report from Aloca (AA 23.26 +0.60) last night, accompanied by Genentech's (DNA 85.65 +3.65) upbeat report and heightened guidance, marked the beginning of the Q3 earnings season during which operating earnings across the S&P are expected to grow 15%. A focus on the good earnings trends could help stabilize the market while creating an opportunity for a classic earnings season rally, and leaves traders awaiting post-bell reports from Apple (AAPL 50.92 +0.55) and Advanced Micro (AMD 23.55 +0.44). The remainder of the week offers numerous notable earnings reports, but only 23 of the S&P's 500 constituents are on the docket; the majority of reports are scheduled for next week. Separately, minutes from the FOMC's Sept. 20 meeting are due out at 2:00 ET, for which traders may attempt to glean further insight into the Fed's policy action. This poses something of a risk if the minutes reflect significant concern over inflation trends, which could somewhat divert attention from earnings growth.

[UpInArms]

27. NYSE to suspend trading in shares of Delphi

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T134002Z_01_N11457794_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-DELPHI-NYSE-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - The New York Stock Exchange said on Tuesday that trading in Delphi Corp. (DPH.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares would be suspended immediately.

Delphi, the No. 1 U.S. auto parts supplier filed for bankruptcy protection on Saturday. It was the biggest bankruptcy filing in U.S. automotive history and promises to have a broad impact across the industry.

The NYSE said on Monday it was reviewing Delphi's listing status in light of its announcements.

It said on Tuesday it had decided to suspend trading based on the abnormally low trading levels for the common stock, which closed at 33 cents on Monday.

...short blurb...

[54anickel]

33. But, but , but - It's a BARGAIN!!! It was up to 37 pennies by the open

http://today.reuters.com/stocks/overview.aspx?symbol=DPH.N

Day's High: $0.37
Day's Low: $0.36

52-wk High: $9.28
52-wk Low: $0.33 :hurts:

Volume: 7,641,600
Avg. Vol: 57,912,852

[ozymandius]

50. Good morning 54anickel and everyone.

How dare they remove the only industrial stock I can afford! The only stock "doable" for my budget is Ozymandius, Inc (OZY). Last time I checked, that stock was trading at roughly the value of one sheet of 60lb paper stock.

[AnneD]

71. WOO WOO

toilet paper...cheap!!!!

[UpInArms]

32. Someone Finally Disputes the "Core Inflation": Rotten to the core

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B9F85D48F%2DDF7D%2D4704%2DB39A%2D5437D0BD4174%7D&siteid=mktw

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- It's time we stopped paying attention to the so-called core rate of inflation. After all, who doesn't use food and energy?

For years, whenever the inflation figures were released, economists both in and out of government stripped away changes in prices of food and energy in order to uncover the core, or underlying, rate of inflation (just as they'll no doubt do this Friday, when the September price stats come out).

Their reasoning was simple: both food and energy prices are volatile. That is, they rise and fall for reasons having nothing to do with the state of the economy -- not to mention the posture of monetary and fiscal policy.

In other words - if the weather is bad, no amount of money that the Federal Reserve can inject into the system can bring forth one more bushel of wheat or an additional ear of corn.

...more...

(I do think this guy missed a lot of different points though :eyes: )

[UpInArms]

35. Gold prices inch higher in morning trade (@ $478.60 oz)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38636.4183285417-845510179&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold is up 60 cents at $478.60 an ounce in morning trade, after briefly touching a high of $479.30. Prices climbed to $479.50 on Monday, their highest intraday level in almost 18 years. But overall, "the gold market has been showing relatively quiet action over the last 24 hours and that might be the result of a short-term overbought status," Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com, said in daily commentary. Metals indexes were also higher, with the Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index ($XAU) up 0.8%.

[UpInArms]

52. Gold futures climb, stop short of $480 (@ $479.90 oz)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38636.4716403588-845514196&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold climbed as high as $479.90 an ounce to mark its highest intraday level since January 1988. Gold "certainly has legs to run further," said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service. But there is "strong resistance" near $488-$490 for the near term, he said. "The entire metals complex is in buy mode, and with that sector in such a strong upward momentum it is hard to see a correction occurring just yet," he said. December silver is up 7.5 cents at a 10-month high of $7.915 an ounce. December copper hit a record of $1.829 a pound and was last trading at $1.824, up 1.8 cents.

[UpInArms]

72. Dec Gold taps $481.50 oz - highest since Jan 1988

12:37pm 10/11/05 DEC GOLD TAPS HIGH OF $481.50/OZ, HIGHEST SINCE JAN 1988

12:37pm 10/11/05 DEC GOLD LAST AT $480.50/OZ, UP $2.50, OR 0.5%

[UpInArms]

Gold futures close just short of $480 (@ $479.80 oz)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38636.5755193171-845522151&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed just short of $480 an ounce, at their highest session-end level since late December 1987. December gold rose $1.80 to close at $479.80 an ounce. At the same time, December silver closed up 3 cents at $7.875 an ounce, its highest since December 2004. December copper rose 2.9 cents to end at $1.835 a pound. It touched a record at $1.838 earlier, tallying nine sessions of record closes.

[54anickel]

37. Stock-speak

Researcher says media characterizations of market activity subtly influence investors

http://www.ajc.com/business/content/business/1005/07bizstockspeak.html

snip>

"My research has to do with business journalism," said Morris, an advocate of the growing field of behavioral economics. He believes television's expanding role in business and market reporting in the '90s contributed to the Wall Street mania.

"Rationally, we know that when the market has gone up sharply it is better to sell than to buy, but emotionally we feel we want to jump on the bandwagon," Morris said.

Most scholars agree that the bandwagon effect was a big part of the stock market bubble that ended in the crash of technology stocks in March 2000, taking down many of the dot-coms Morris studied.

Power of words

Words such as leap and jump are "agent metaphors," the kind that give life, so to speak, to the market. Words like "plunge" and "drop" have less of an impact because they are "object metaphors," which are likely to refer to inanimate objects and are therefore less suggestive of goal-directed behavior.

In short, leopards leap and trees fall, and therein lies the presumed origin of our response to the metaphors, Morris argues.

snip>

Think of it as spin

Morris believes this research has broader implications than the stock market.

more...

He's a bit late to the party - DUers had this figured out long ago - at least his provided more research to validate the spin-cycle.

[UpInArms]

38. Refco (derivatives trader) shares halted, day after huge drop

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=governmentFilingsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051011:MTFH54625_2005-10-11_12-50-33_N11451592:1

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Trading in Refco Inc. (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) shares was halted for pending news on Tuesday, one day after the futures and commodities broker put its chief executive on leave and said its quarterly financial filing with regulators would be delayed.

Refco shares, which fell 45 percent in New York Stock Exchange trading on Monday, were up 6 percent in premarket trading on Tuesday before the halt.

A company representative did not immediately return a call for comment.

Refco said on Monday it had launched an investigation into $430 million it was owed by an entity its CEO had controlled.

The company, which went public in August, is one of the world's largest and most powerful commodities and futures dealers.

...short blurb...

[54anickel]

40. Looking at their track record - it's amazing they were able to go public

http://www.cftc.gov/enf/99orders/enfrefco.htm

Looks like the COO, William Sexton, announced his departure last month.

http://www.shareholder.com/Common/Edgar/1321746/1104659-05-45579/05-00.pdf

On September 26, 2005, Refco Inc. announced that William Sexton, currently Executive Vice President and Chief Operating
Officer of Refco Inc., will be leaving the company in mid-October to pursue other interests.



NEW YORK, September 26, 2005 – Refco Inc. (NYSE: RFX) announced the following changes to the management team of Refco Group, Ltd., LLC, Refco Inc.’s wholly-owned subsidiary:

Mr. Stephen J. Grady, a 23 year veteran of Refco and currently Chief Operating Officer of Refco Group’s global derivatives operations, is to assume the additional responsibility of managing Refco’s substantial physical infrastructure and operations in Chicago. These operations have been further expanded following the completion of Refco’s acquisition of Cargill Investor Services on August 31, 2005. Mr. Grady has relocated from New York to Chicago to assume his new duties. Mr. Grady will continue to report to Joseph Murphy, President and CEO of Refco, LLC and head of Refco’s global derivatives businesses.

Mr. Jeffrey Mester joined Refco as Chief Operating Officer of Refco Securities, LLC, the wholly-owned broker-dealer subsidiary of Refco
Inc. Mr. Mester has had extensive experience in the securities industry, including operating as a specialist on the American Stock Exchange and as the Chief Operating Officer and, later, Chief Executive of ETG, an equity brokerage company. Mr. Mester will oversee the organizational, operational and compliance functions of the broker-dealer, and will have responsibility for monitoring operating performance.

Mr. Mester will report to Sandy Maggio, President and CEO of Refco Securities, LLC.

Mr. William Sexton, currently Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Refco Inc. and Refco Group Ltd., LLC, will be leaving the company in mid-October to pursue other interests.


http://www.clearingcorp.com/about/biographies/murphy.html

Joseph J. Murphy

Mr. Joseph J. Murphy serves as First Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of The Clearing Corporation ("CCorp"). Mr. Murphy is the President of Refco, LLC, one of the world's largest global FCMs, is the Chief Executive Officer of Refco Global Futures, and is also the Executive Vice President of Refco Group Ltd., LLC. The Refco Group provides a broad range of global financial services to clients throughout the world. In addition to being one of the largest institutional and retail brokers, Refco has a significant locals clearing operation. Prior to joining Refco, Mr. Murphy served at HSBC Futures as Executive Managing Director in charge of North American futures, cash securities and OTC derivative sales out of the Chicago office. Mr. Murphy began his financial career with Chase Manhattan Bank in 1983, where during his tenure he worked in the treasury, securities and derivatives areas. While at Chase, he focused on balance sheet and distribution issues, sales and trading.

Mr. Murphy has been a full member of the Chicago Board of Trade since 1996. His other professional affiliations include memberships with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, New York Board of Trade, and New York Mercantile Exchange. He also is also Treasurer of the Board of Directors of the Futures Industry Association and serves on the Board of the NFA.

Mr. Murphy received his Bachelor of Science degree from Providence College.

[ozymandius]

53. So many stocks are reported halted from trading today.

When did this last happen?

[UpInArms]

65. I think that the answer to your question lies in post #9

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1841400&mesg_id=1841536

Not since the Depression of 1929 has corporate America received so many black eyes. General Motors, the world's largest automaker, Sears Holdings Corp., the biggest U.S. department store chain, and Eastman Kodak Co., the largest photography company, led 27 borrowers whose $499 billion of outstanding debt obligations suffered the ignominy of being downgraded to junk.

[UpInArms]

77. Refco cut by Moody's after CEO removed (a little slow, aren't they?)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T164456Z_01_N11473277_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-SHARES-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service downgraded Refco Inc. (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) affiliates to medium and low "junk" grades after the commodities broker removed its chief executive and said investors shouldn't rely on its last four years of financial statements.

Trading in shares of New York-based Refco shares was halted early Tuesday after the stock fell 45 percent in New York Stock Exchange trading on Monday. The shares had risen 6 percent in pre-market trading on Tuesday before the halt.

A company representative did not immediately return a call for comment. Refco, which went public in August, is one of the world's largest commodities and futures dealers.

Moody's on Monday evening cut Refco Group Ltd.'s senior secured bank debt one notch to "B2," its fifth highest junk grade, from "B1." It also cut the unit's senior subordinated debt one notch to "Caa1," its seventh highest junk grade, from "B3." Refco Finance Inc., which co-issued the subordinated debt, was also cut to "Caa1" from "B3."

...more...

and I meant "Moodys" was slow on the uptake seeing as how these shares have been halted.

[54anickel]

96. REFCO REFUGEES

http://www.nypost.com/business/29269.htm

October 11, 2005 -- Refco, the futures and commodities brokerage, sent its chief executive and a top lieutenant packing yesterday, after it discovered their involvement in a $430 million financial fraud at the trading giant.

The firm placed CEO Phillip R. Bennett, who reaped a $118 million windfall from its blockbuster July initial public offering, on a leave of absence.

Santo Maggio, the head of Refco Securities and Refco Capital Markets, was also placed on leave for his involvement in the matter.

The news stunned the markets, sending the stock down more than 45 percent to $15.60 from an opening of $28.56. Worse, much of the selling came in the form of big block trades, indicating that institutional money managers had become spooked.

snip>

Schoen and Refco's new CEO, Bill Sexton, declined to discuss how these events occurred and whether future disclosures were possible.

more...

So when was Sexton actually named CEO and Bennett out, cuz those other articles I posted whole trying to figure out who the CEO was sure made it sound like Sexton's been in that position for a while. Confusing as hell....

[UpInArms]

108. Refco tumbles again, blames ex-CEO on accounting

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T194258Z_01_N11473277_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-SHARES-UPDATE-3.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Commodities broker Refco Inc. (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research), on Tuesday said its recently removed chief executive took steps to inflate the company's balance sheet, in a scandal than has more than halved Refco shares in two days.

The announcement shed more light on a complex transaction disclosed two months after the company raised $583 million in an initial public offering. Refco is one of the world's largest commodities and futures dealers.

New York-based Refco on Tuesday also said it contacted the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the New York Stock Exchange, and other U.S. regulators about the matter, and is cooperating. A prominent class-action law firm has filed a lawsuit against Refco.

<snip>

Refco on Monday announced the removal of Phillip Bennett as chairman and chief executive, and said the $430 million owed by a company he controlled was repaid that day. It also said its financial statements since 2002 should no longer be relied upon. William Sexton, who had resigned as chief operating officer, was installed as chief executive.

On Tuesday, Refco said much of the $430 million consisted of uncollectable sums owed by unrelated third parties. It said these sums were periodically transferred to Bennett's entity, and reflected on Refco's books as a receivable from that entity, rather than from the original accounts.

"The fact that the receivable was from a company controlled by Mr. Bennett was hidden at the end of quarterly and annual reporting periods by reason of transfers to a third party customer account that we currently believe is unaffiliated with Mr. Bennett or anyone else at the company," Refco said.

...more...

[54anickel]

39. Report: R&D may not deliver rewards

Lowering the bar :eyes: - but then I come from an Engineering background

Study suggests that top spenders aren't seeing better results than those in the middle of the pack.


http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/11/news/economy/research_development/index.htm

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - A new study suggests that spending more on research and development does not translate into better financial results for the company doing the spending, according to a published report.

The Wall Street Journal reports that a study expected to be released Tuesday by consulting firm Booz Allen Hamilton found that once a minimum level of research and development spending is achieved, better oversight and culture are more reliable for producing financial results than additional R&D spending.

The newspaper said the study analyzed six years of financial results by 1,000 publicly traded companies responsible for the bulk of R&D spending globally.

It found "no statistically significant difference" when comparing the financial results of middle-of-the-pack companies with those in the top 10 percent of their industry in R&D spending Booz Allen's vice president of Global Technology Practice Barry Jaruzelski told the newspaper. He said the result was the same within each of the 10 industry groups examined as well as across all industries evaluated.

more...

[UpInArms]

41. U.S. market outlook turns for the worse

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B745F0A21%2D666E%2D45C2%2D81FA%2D10F8A9F3B4AC%7D&siteid=mktw

CINCINNATI (MarketWatch) - Over the past week, the U.S markets' technical landscape has changed noticeably.

As recently as last Tuesday, October 3, the S&P 500 held just 15 points under four-year highs.

Yet in the four sessions since, the S&P has sold off on strong volume, violating several important support points.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/image.asp?track=201&guid={745F0A21-666E-45C2-81FA-10F8A9F3B4AC}

The S&P 500's hourly chart above serves as a detailed view of the past three weeks.

Again, as recently as last Tuesday, the index held just 15 points from four-year highs. Yet in the four sessions since, it has taken out the following important support points:
Its 50-day moving average.
The neckline of its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern around 1,207.
The August low of 1,201.
Its 200-day moving average.

<snip>

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/image.asp?track=202&guid={745F0A21-666E-45C2-81FA-10F8A9F3B4AC}

...more at link...

[54anickel]

43. It's time to take seriously a US-led global recession

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2005-10/06/content_482807.htm

I think it is time that we should take a serious look at the possibility that the US is going to take us down towards a worldwide recession in one or two year's time.

snip>

To us, the good news is that when the country is in deep trouble, the US will not have the energy to pick on China. Even when it is necessary to start another war to divert people's attention, it would pick one much smaller in size and weaker in strength, like Iran. This will provide a much more amicable environment for China to make good use of its "period of strategic opportunity" till 2020 for the country to pass through a turbulent zone between per capita income of US$1,000-3,000.

But in the short term, now the US not only sneezes, and all symptoms indicate that it is going to suffer from a SARS-like trouble, the whole world should take extra precaution not to get infected. One thing is for sure, some time in the not too distant future, every central bank and institutional investor is going to dump US dollar and US Treasury bonds. Once, when a country like South Korea dumps the dollar, the still unsold US Treasuries in the asset column of Asian central banks - US$2,000 billion according to some estimates - will collapse. The cheapened dollar will cause a sudden jump in the US inflation, which forces the Fed to jack up interest rates. A giant leap in inflation will cause a severe recession, or perhaps a depression, in the US. These countries' exports to America will dry up, which in turn will spread the global economic downturn like wildfire.

After the stampede, everybody is going to get hurt, not least the central bank of China, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which are major US creditors and with the US as their number one export market. The recent currency reform of the RMB is most timely, and it is about time we should do something about the Hong Kong dollar. At the same time, China should make extra efforts to rekindle internal consumption, and diversify its market really fast before the great US bubble bursts.

more...

[loudsue]

70. A most chilling article...but one we could have written ourselves.

:hi: Hi 54anickel!!! :applause:

I'm glad you found this little gem of an article. This says clearly what we've all been trying to tell DUers on the threads in the other forums.

The U.S. is in DEEP financial doodoo. And it's the REPUBLICANS that are the cheap-labor advocates, so that there is a clear distinction between the elite and the slaves. They've been trying to break this country's "working class" ever since we brought the robber barons in line early in the last century -- the robber barons that think they "own" the laborers.

The U.S. is, indeed, poised for a depression that will make 1929 look like a walk in the park. Because THIS depression will see us without our manufacturing and industrial base that helped us the last time, with unionization.

Unfortunately, a depression of that magnitude may be the only thing that could reunite the masses in this country, who have been turned against one another for the benefit of the robber barons.

"It's gonna be a hard rain gonna fall."

:kick:

[UpInArms]

44. 10:49 EST mixed numbers with some blather

Dow 10,277.26 +38.50 (+0.38%)
Nasdaq 2,077.11 -1.81 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,189.97 +2.64 (+0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.381 +0.20 (+0.46%)

NYSE Volume 543,395,000
Nasdaq Volume 416,513,000

10:30AM: The market's majors return to a northbound course, driven by gains in 19 of the Dow's 30 components. With its 3.4% gain, Alcoa (AA 23.44 +0.78) leads the way higher as investors cheer the aluminum giant's Q3 earnings report that beat analysts' estimates by $0.04. As such, the Materials sector has risen 1.0% in the early going, while the aluminum group stands as one of the overall market's brightest spots. General Motors (GM 26.14 +0.66) extends a second-place 2.6% gain to the bluechip average, rebounding today after yesterday's 11.0% Delphi-induced plunge. Third on the Dow's best-performing list is IBM (IBM 83.10 +1.85) - up 2.3% as it enjoys a second consecutive analyst upgrade. CSFB raised its opinion of the tech titan's shares to Outperform from Neutral today, following Citigroup's upgrade to Buy from Hold yesterday.NYSE Adv/Dec 1664/1202, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1301/1259

10:00AM: The indices edge back somewhat, but maintain solid footing. All but one of the economic sectors stand positive, but leadership is largely limited to Energy (+1.5%), Materials (+0.9%), and Utilities (+0.8%). With energy prices back on the rise - and working to pare some of the respective 7% and 28% that crude ($+0.78 $62.58/bbl) and gasoline (+$0.019 $1.820/gal) lost last week - the Energy sector has attracted early buying interest that leaves just one of its 29 issues in the red. Last week, the sector erased about 8% of its year-to-date gain, and gave back 1.5% more yesterday; for the year, though, Energy still posts a 27.9% gain that is more than twice that of Utilities' second-place rise. Currently alone below the flat line, the Telecommunications sector has chalked an early 0.3% loss - adding to the 12.1% year-to-date decline that marks it the S&P's worst performer. NYSE Adv/Dec 1853/799, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1476/857

[UpInArms]

45. Fitch comments on Katrina's effect on U.S. CMBS (delinquencies and

foreclosures)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T143435Z_01_N11464226_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-CMBS-FITCH-REPORT.XML

Oct 11 - Despite falling to yet another record low, it appears to be only a matter of time before delinquencies for U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities begin to feel the short-term effects of Hurricane Katrina, according to Fitch Ratings.

Fitch's loan delinquency declined an additional 5% from August 2005 to a new low of 0.95% last month, with the largest decline (8.39%) occurring in the office sector for the second consecutive month.

However, two loans from the Gulf Coast area affected by Hurricane Katrina and Rita have been identified in the Loan Delinquency Index, according to Fitch Director Britt Johnson.

'Because Fitch uses a minimum 60-day delinquent criteria for inclusion in the study, Fitch expects the delinquency index to begin rising', said Johnson. 'CMBS servicers who saw minimal increases in advancing for September as a result of the hurricane, are expecting advancing to increase in October.'

<snip>

Many CMBS borrowers in the gulf coast area already had September payments sitting in their accounts, delaying an immediate increase in delinquencies. The decline in office delinquencies, which saw $73 million in liquidations, was largely driven by the liquidation of a $41 million real estate owned office (REO) property in Santa Clara, California. Interestingly, it was the original borrower who purchased the property from the Trust.

...more...

[54anickel]

46. Is a Dollar Crisis Looming? (Gotta run for the day)

http://www.merkfund.com/merk-perspective/insights/2005-10-10.html

“It’s the 70’s, stupid!” was a headline on CNBC on Wednesday, October 5, 2005 – a day when the dollar dropped sharply against major currencies. The 1970s was known for stagflation, a period of sluggish economic growth combined with high inflation. The 1970’s is associated with a breakdown of the gold standard, high inflation, price controls, bad equity and bond markets, as well as a major bull market for commodities ranging from oil to precious metals.
snip>

Why now?
We have been warning for a long time that both monetary and fiscal policy are steering us towards stagflation; yet very few had been warning even about inflation a few weeks ago. In a country that is deeply divided into “red” and “blue” states, anyone critical of any policy was dismissed as simply not liking the administration. It took a federal spending blitz to authorize in excess of $60 billion (and to contemplate over $200 billion) to help in the reconstruction of the Gulf Coast after the hurricanes to wake up fiscal conservatives. A cynical rumor was spreading that President Bush may really be a radical liberal with a mission to ensure that no Republican will ever be elected again. Republican Representatives are not amused and indeed concerned that they may not be re-elected if spending is not brought under control.

snip>

To prevent the consumer from slowing down, ever greater stimuli are constructed. The problem is that they are less effective and foster inflation: we had a very tight energy supply situation before the hurricane, and may be adding over $200 billion as a further economic stimulus. While inflation has been contained so far because much of what we consume is imported from Asia, we cannot fully rely on Asia saving the US economy. Not only do we have significant inflation in oil and other raw materials, anything we cannot import from Asia, from healthcare to education has seen significant price increases over the past couple of years.

What does and can the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) do about these concerns?
Fed Chairman Greenspan was quoted to have said that the US had lost control of its budget (not surprisingly, Treasury Department officials said that his comments were misinterpreted). In the past couple of days, numerous Fed officials warned about inflation, and how the Fed will be vigilant. The Fed these days puts a higher priority at expectations management than at managing fundamentals. In our view, this is the greatest mistake a central bank can do – it is supposed to set policy, to lead, not to react to perception. Until a few weeks ago, perception was that there was nothing to worry about in the markets – well, it wasn’t. The Fed should have reigned in consumer spending a few years ago; indeed, much of corporate America cleaned up their balance sheets after the tech bubble burst. But consumers became victims of the temptation to load up on debt, to weaken their balance sheets.

This leads us to the question of what the Fed can do. The Fed has painted itself into a corner: to stop inflation from taking over, it would need to put a serious dampener on consumer credit. Because of a much greater sensitivity the consumer has towards interest rates now than in the past (because of the high debt load), such medication would not only throw the country into recession, but could easily lead to a depression. If the Fed was truly vigilant and raise interest rates sufficiently to stave off inflation, we would destroy the over-extended housing market. The problem is that the housing market may already be past its peak, and while interest rates have been climbing, monetary policy continues to be accommodating. Add to the equation that Bush will appoint a successor to Greenspan in the coming months; he is likely to favor someone close to him, someone favoring growth over fighting inflation. Morgan Stanley’s chief economist Stephen Roach points out that there is a “curse of the Fed” – each of the past 3 Fed transitions at the top of the Fed over the past 27 years lead to jolts in the markets. This time around, we have a current account deficit of over 6% of GDP, a much weaker position than in the past to weather any storm. The recent outspoken comments by various Fed officials are a reflection of their nervousness. We have been predicting for some time that Bush will appoint former Fed governor and current chief economic advisor Ben Bernanke. Bernanke is best known for his opinion that throwing money out of helicopters is an acceptable monetary policy should there be the need; he is also a key driver behind managing monetary policy through perception management rather than managing fundamentals. One of the frustrations of the Fed has always been that they do not have full control over longer-dated debt securities (the Fed sets short-term rates), and other aspects of the financial markets. Ben Bernanke is a supporter of managing the entire yield curve (short- and long-term debt securities) through market intervention; he must have strongly endorsed handing out $2000 debit cards to Katrina victims (the victims certainly deserve help – we just point out the type of micro-management that we are likely to see more of in the future). Given the choice of beating the inflation that is in the pipeline and managing an inflationary economy, we believe the Fed will opt for an inflationary route, while giving lip service to how serious they are about fighting inflation; some action will be taken, and we may see a recession with higher interest rates and high inflation. Stagflation.

more...

[UpInArms]

48. 'bye 54anickel!

:hi:

Have a great day!

[UpInArms]

47. Lawyers Question Motives in (HCA) Hospital Sale (Frist/Insider Trading)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/10/AR2005101001820.html

CHARLESTON, W.Va. -- HCA Inc.'s plan to sell five hospitals, including its four in West Virginia, is a ruse to avoid hundreds of millions of dollars in potential damages from malpractice allegations against a doctor, according to lawyers who have asked the state to review the $330 million deal.

The lawyers represent 71 former patients suing over the alleged negligence at Putnam General Hospital in Hurricane, W.Va. Putnam General is among the five hospitals Nashville, Tenn.-based HCA wants to sell to LifePoint Hospitals Inc., a company HCA spun off in 1999.

The proposed sale was announced in July, four months after a Putnam County circuit judge ruled that West Virginia's caps on damages in medical malpractice cases do not apply to the allegations against Putnam General and its parent company in the lawsuits against Dr. John A. King and his former assistant.

With more than 270 hospitals and surgery centers in 23 states, HCA said it wanted to shed all facilities "primarily in rural and nonurban markets" when it proposed selling Putnam General, along with St. Joseph's Hospital in Parkersburg, St. Francis Hospital in Charleston, Raleigh General Hospital in Beckley and Clinch Valley Medical Center in Richlands, Va.

<snip>

The lawsuits come as HCA also deals with a Securities and Exchange Commission investigation into the massive sale of HCA shares by company insiders and executives, including U.S. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn., totaling some $112 million between January and June. Frist has said he sold the shares to eliminate the appearance of a conflict of interest, using only information that was publicly available.

...more...

[tlcandie]

51. Real Estate Insiders Cashing Out at the Top by Mike Swanson

<snip>
According to the NY Times:

“The previous times we've had insider selling that was that high, it was followed by a 20 percent decline in the index of home builder stocks," said Mark A. LoPresti, senior quantitative analyst with Thomson Financial. Since its July 28 peak, the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Housing Sector Index, an index of 21 home building stocks, has dipped 10 percent.”


Now the mortgage stocks are in collapse. Mortgage stocks are the single worst investment in the whole market. I am repeating this to you again, because I’m not in front of you in person. If I was, I’d pound the table for emphasis. The stock market is usually six months ahead, if the mortgage stocks are telling us anything it is that the housing market will be in another world six months from now.

This generation of real estate speculators is going to get wiped out. There are already signs that the housing market has topped out. Sales of new single-family homes fell 9.9% in August, dropping 18% in Southern California, Phoenix, and Las Vegas.
<snip>

http://www.wallstreetwindow.com/riskfreetrial.htm

NOTE: This comes to me via e-mail for free as I do NOT subscribe, so I'm not sure how reliable it is. If you veterans of the SM thread determine it of no value, just say and I will delete it.

Thanks! Also, there is more, but the para limits didn't allow for it.

[JNelson6563]

54. 11:21 Update; But...but...but....

I thought today was the big rally day! They were ecstatic at open on CNBC and Drier was on there gushing about how great the economy is!

Dow 10,273.82 +35.06 (+0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,072.63 -6.29 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 1,189.04 +1.71 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.387% +0.03

Not looking all that great to me.....maybe I'm just not looking at it from the right angle.

Julie

[ozymandius]

55. The "right" angle is from the corporate boardroom.

That's where the real money is: cash in the options and dump the holdings. You do that and everything's fine.

[ozymandius]

57. 11:30 numbers and blather

Dow 10,267.97 +29.21 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 2,071.37 -7.55 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,188.17 +0.84 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 43.90 +0.29 (+0.66%)
NYSE Volume 760,384,000
Nasdaq Volume 586,901,000

11:00AM: The Nasdaq has relinquished its gain, leaving the Dow and S&P above the flat line as it faces several areas of relative weakness within the recently-red Technology sector. A 1.3% decline in office electronics teams with a 0.8% dip in communications equipment, internet software and services' 1.0% drop, application software's 1.2% slide, and a 0.3% loss in semiconductors to push Tech to an overall 0.2% loss. At the same time, a 3.1% jump in home entertainment software, which comes on the heels of Electronic Arts' (ERTS 52.96 +1.61) upgrade, couples with hardware's 1.4% rise to offset broad-based tech weakness. For its part, hardware component Apple Computers (AAPL 51.55 +1.18) has risen 2.3% as traders anticipate an upbeat Q3 earnings report this evening. NYSE Adv/Dec 1716/1244, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1306/1342

[UpInArms]

60. updated blather

11:30AM: The stock market continues to trade in mixed fashion, pressured by split sector standing that leaves Financials (-0.2%), Technology (-0.3%), Healthcare (-0.2%), Industrials (-0.04%), and Telecom (-1.0%) trading below the unchanged mark. Meanwhile, the Energy sector still lends the most support, up 1.9% alongside a matching gain in crude ($63.00/bbl) that has re-initiated wide-spread buying activity. Despite momentum across the energy complex, the Consumer Discretionary sector has hung on to its gain over the course of the morning - up 0.3% and supported by retailers' 0.4% gain and a 0.2% rise in homebuilders. This morning, homebuilder DR Horton (DHI 31.91 +0.09) reported a 33% increase in Q4 net sales orders, to a record $3.8 billion (13,950 homes), and a 28% jump, to a record $14.6 billion (53,232 homes), in net sales orders for FY05.NYSE Adv/Dec 1570/1458, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1217/1516

[UpInArms]

61. Pessimism over US economy lifts in October

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T153237Z_01_N11458561_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-WRAPUP-1.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - Americans were slightly less pessimistic about the U.S. economy and went shopping in October despite worries about higher interest rates and gasoline prices, reports showed on Tuesday.

Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence said their economic optimism index rose to 42.0 from a record low of 41.2 in September in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. A reading above 50 indicates optimism.

"Americans are still worried about rising interest rates and high gasoline prices," said Terry Jones, associate editor of Investor's Business Daily. "That, along with the lingering impact from Hurricane Katrina and ongoing political fights in Washington, seems to be holding back consumer sentiment."

Confidence fell to its lowest in almost two years in September after hurricanes Katrina and Rita pushed gasoline prices to record highs. That prompted some concern of a slow-down in consumer spending, particularly now that the Federal Reserve is expected to continue to raise rates.

...more...

[AnneD]

94. if that is true...

it is because the bills haven't hit yet. I know that those using crystal balls will eat glass, but my crystal ball says this may be the last 'high' number before it tanks.

[54anickel]

120. Oh for cryin' out loud - it's STILL below 50, so we're just .8 less

pessimistic. Point eight, oh yeah there's a number to be jumping up and down for joy over...NOT

Nice try at the spin though. Pessimism LIFTS :eyes:

[UpInArms]

62. More Tax Cuts in the offing -

(thanks to highplainsdem and this DU thread

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1841894)

Bush Panel in Broad Agreement to Cut Investment Tax

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aSFl4i3juOew&refer=us#

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The financial-services industry is poised to emerge a big winner from the recommendations of President George W. Bush's tax advisory panel, where a consensus is building to eliminate or reduce taxes on investment income.

The panel holds its second-to-last meeting in Washington today to hone its final recommendations, due to be delivered to the Treasury Department by Nov. 1. Panel members said in interviews they have reached a broad agreement to make it easier and less costly for Americans to invest in financial markets.

``All of us would like to get taxes on investments to a reasonably low level, particularly dividend and capital-gains returns,'' said member Bill Frenzel, a former Republican congressman from Minnesota who is now a scholar at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

Tax policy experts say there have been indications since the panel formed in January that at least one of its recommendations would favor reducing taxes on investment income rather than wages.

``This board is very heavily weighted to make sure people of wealth don't pay any taxes,'' said Calvin Johnson, a former Treasury Department official who is now a law professor at the University of Texas in Austin. ``They're all committed to shifting the tax burden downward rather than upward.''

<snip>

Three of the panel's nine members are connected to the financial-services industry. Chairman Connie Mack, a former Florida senator, is on the board of Mutual of America Life Insurance Co., a New York firm that sells annuities and individual retirement accounts in 37 states. Charles Rossotti, a former Internal Revenue Service commissioner, receives $185,000 a year in stock-based compensation as a director of New York-based Merrill Lynch & Co., the biggest U.S. brokerage. Liz Ann Sonders is chief investment strategist at San Francisco-based Charles Schwab & Co., the biggest discount brokerage by assets.

...more...

:argh:

[UpInArms]

80. Oopsie! Cap for Mortgage Deductions coming right up!

1:08pm 10/11/05 TAX PANEL RULES OUT NATIONAL RETAIL SALES TAX

1:08pm 10/11/05 TAX PANEL LEANS TOWARD MORTGAGE-DEDUCTION CAP

1:08pm 10/11/05 BUSH TAX PANEL LEANS TOWARD HEALTH-DEDUCTION CAP

[Changenow]

85. TAX INCREASES!!!?!!!!!!?

Naturally for the middle class.

Won't these suggestions guarantee the collapse of the real estate bubble, or is that the point?

[UpInArms]

111. Tax-revamp panel eyes mortgage, health deductions

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B40E71B0D%2D0D93%2D43A9%2DA732%2DAF1BBD305703%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A presidential tax-reform panel on Tuesday indicated it was ready to urge changes in the tax treatment of healthcare benefits and mortgage interest deductions when it issues its final report in the next few weeks.

Details are yet to be worked out, but members broadly agreed at the panel's penultimate public meeting to explore the possibility of putting a limit on the amount of healthcare benefits that employers would be able to provide workers tax-free.

The panel also leaned toward altering, but not eliminating, the mortgage-interest deduction and other benefits afforded homeowners, including the possibility of lowering the $1 million mortgage-interest cap now in place.

Former Sen. Connie Mack, the chairman of President Bush's Advisory Panel on Federal Tax Reform, said panelists agreed on the need to modify existing housing provisions, while ensuring that the tax code continues to "promote home ownership," while also addressing concerns that the benefits under current rules are "not shared equally."

The nine-member committee, which must deliver a detailed set of proposals to Treasury Secretary John Snow by Nov. 1, also agreed to reject proposals to replace the existing income-based tax code with a national retail sales tax.

Using Treasury Department data, panel member Ed Lazear, a Stanford University professor and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institute, estimated that a national sales-tax rate would need to range between 64% and 87% in order to replace revenues from the corporate and personal income tax while preserving exemptions on drugs, food, clothing and other goods and services typically excluded from state sales taxes.

...more...

[UpInArms]

63. Time needed to find job in US up in 3rd qtr-survey

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T154246Z_01_N11646751_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JOBS-TIME.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 11 (Reuters) - American job-seekers are taking longer to find work, in part because high energy prices are forcing companies to think twice before hiring new workers, according to a report on Tuesday.

The median time for an average worker to find a job increased to 3.6 months in the third quarter, up from 3.1 months in the second quarter, employment research firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said.

Job-search times had been decreasing for three quarters, and the reversal of the trend highlights a still-fragile employment market that was exacerbated by the fallout of hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

"The longer search times reflect additional risks in the job market," said John Challenger, chief executive officer of the outplacement firm. "High energy prices may be slowing companies hiring plans and could result in the postponement of expansion programs."

<snip>

But persistently high energy prices were starting to take their toll on hiring plans, and would likely continue to do so for at least the remainder of the year, Challenger said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

68. 12:15 EST numbers and blather (losing its glow)

Dow 10,254.30 +15.54 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,065.08 -13.84 (-0.67%)
S&P 500 1,185.97 -1.36 (-0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.399 +0.38 (+0.87%)

NYSE Volume 981,021,000
Nasdaq Volume 778,053,000

12:00PM: Though launched on solid footing, the market's major averages currently trade in mixed fashion, with the S&P and Nasdaq in the red and the Dow's morning gain halved. A pair of upside Q3 earning reports from Alcoa (AA 22.98 +0.32) and Genentech (DNA 85.18 +3.18) after yesterday's close gave traders reason to reverse the 3.2%, 3.4%, and 3.5% declines that the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq have respectively chalked over the last six sessions, but energy price action has siphoned much of the market's steam. After losing 7% last week, crude has jumped 1.7% today, while gasoline and natural gas similarly head north. A report from the American Gas Association, which indicated that the average home heating bill will increase 50% this year, has roiled traders and effectively diverted attention from the fact that Q3 aggregate earnings, which begin rolling in this week, are expected to grow 15%. Energy price action has fueled a 1.5% gain in the Energy sector today, helping to pare some of the approximate 9.5% that the previous six sessions cost the S&P's best performer. Aside from that sector's gain, however, leadership remains limited. Utilities have staged a parallel rebound, rising 0.7% after attracting profit-taking of late. Materials ranks third, chalking a 0.4% gain for which Alcoa is largely responsible. For its part, the Dow component reported EPS of $0.33, vs. analysts' expected $0.29; at the same time, though, the upside has been limited by the fact that the world's largest aluminum company issued a profit warning in September. Despite y pared its early gain, and extends a 0.4% loss that stunts the sector's upward efforts. On the other side of the aisle Telecom (-1.2%) leads the way lowenergy price momentum, the Consumer Discretionary sector has held its head above water over the course of the morning - up 0.1% and supported by retailers' 0.2% gain. Although DR Horton (DHI 31.91 +0.09) reported record fiscal Q4 and FY05 increases in net sales orders this morning, the homebuilders group has recently pared its early gain, and extends a 0.4% loss that stunts the sector's upward efforts. On the other side of the aisle Telecom (-1.2%) leads the way lower and adds to the 12.1% year-to-date decline that has left it as the S&P's worst performer in 2005. Each posting 0.5% declines, it's the Financial and Tech sectors that weigh heaviest on the midday market. With continued attention to the flattening yield curve, and challenged by banks (-0.4%) extended decline, sellers again target the Financial sector today. Perhaps making matters worse is traders' apprehension ahead of the minutes from the FOMC's Sept. 20 meeting (2:00 ET), from which the market hopes to glean insight into the Fed's view of inflation and its tightening policy. Tech, meanwhile, has been similarly shoved lower on account of broad based buying, but an upgrade on Electronic Arts shares (ERTS 52.69 +1.34) has spurred a rise in home entertainment software that limits the sector's slide. DJTA +0.68, DJUA +1.16, DOT -0.32, Nasdaq 100 -0.34, Russell 2000 -0.35, SOX -1.31, S&P Midcap 400 -0.23, XOI +1.87, NYSE Adv/Dec 1426/1650, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1119/1651

[JNelson6563]

69. PPT go to lunch?

This morn when I was watching the sickening gush-fest at open it seemed so forced and fake. As I peeked in and saw the markets up in a pretty big way I still had that feeling. I just couldn't believe it. There's so much bad news, there's nothing to drive the markets like that. Just a few minutes later than your post we continue downward trend:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow 10,247.87 +9.11 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq 2,062.79 -16.13 (-0.78%)
S&P 500 1,184.44 -2.89 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.4% +0.04

Money leaving markets and Treasuries.....hmmm.

Julie

[loudsue]

73. I give 'em two weeks, Julie....

Sometime in October we're prolly going to see a big drop in the market, IMHO. The economists in the rest of the world...where they actually have a "free press", has been astonished that the U.S. has been able to prop itself up this far.

I just don't see how we can avoid a serious economic collapse at this point. We've had republicans pulling the strings for way too long now...refusing to let the money fall into the hands of the lower & middle class, who SPEND that money, and keep the economy rolling.

:kick:

[ozymandius]

74. We are waaaay overdue for curbs to kick in.

If we have not seen this amount of corporate illness in 85 years - the there is no reason for the indeces to post average values as they are. In an abstract way - I'm curious to see what will happen when half a trillion dollars of outstanding corporate debt is downgraded to junk.

[Zynx]

75. The bad corporate balance sheets are a consequence of the 1980s.

The idea had always been before that that a company would keep their balance sheet as solid as possible. However, with the corporate raiders in the 1980s putting pressure on the boards of directors to grow faster or risk an LBO, many companies became addicted to financing growth and share repurchases with debt.

[UpInArms]

76. 12:52 EST market gains on higher oil, rising inflation and FOMC

minutes that are to be released at 2:00 EST :shrug:

Dow 10,269.18 +30.42 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,065.49 -13.43 (-0.65%)
S&P 500 1,187.06 -0.27 (-0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 4.392 +0.31 (+0.71%)

NYSE Volume 1,132,714,000
Nasdaq Volume 909,979,000

12:30PM: As crude trades at session highs - now sporting a $63.20/bbl pricetag that reflects a 2.3% gain on the day - the indices continue to fade, with the Dow still on positive ground but its counterparts submerged. The bond market, meanwhile, extends its weakness into the lunch hour. Treasuries are gearing up for the FOMC minutes at 2:00 ET, from which the market may get a further sense of the Fed's inflation interpretation and its intended policy action. In addition, bond traders are looking ahead to Friday's CPI report. The benchmark 10-year note is currently off nine ticks, yielding 4.39%, while the inflation-sensitive 30-year note is off 13 ticks and offering investor 4.59%. NYSE Adv/Dec 1337/1783, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1012/1799

So is the DOW completely unconnected with all the facts? Rising oil makes corporate profits (other than for oil corps) sink, rising inflation makes the FOMC hike rates which makes corporate profits (other than for financial institutions) sink, FOMC minutes to be released will (if they weren't smokin' something really good) state the aforementioned facts.

So the DOW climbs :shakeshead:

[loudsue]

81. What you and Zinx said....you're both right.

Corporations were clearly given too much leeway in governing themselves. It looks like the LBO and "privatization" binge has put us in a perilous position.

The hang-over is going to be a bitch!

:kick:

[UpInArms]

89. Delphi, GM bonds still reeling from bankruptcy

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBB83EB4E%2D8F4F%2D4AF2%2D93A3%2D1D96AB293B0E%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Delphi-issued bonds and those of its largest customer and former parent, General Motors, were lashed for a second day Tuesday, following the weekend bankruptcy-protection filing by the auto-parts maker.

With U.S. bond markets closed Monday for the Columbus Day holiday, Tuesday offered the first chance - outside of Monday's off-market action - for bondholders to react to the news.

Fitch cut Delphi's credit ratings Monday, while Standard & Poor's moved GM lower and Moody's put GM on watch for potential downgrades. See related bond story from Monday.

The biggest risk so far for GM (GM: news, chart, profile) is its responsibility for up to $11 billion in pension and benefits due to Delphi (DPH: news, chart, profile) workers. See full coverage of the Chapter 11 filing.

GM's shares actually rebounded on Tuesday after falling some 10% on Monday.

That wasn't the case for its bonds.

Yield spreads widened sharply Tuesday on the bonds issued by Delphi and GM, which means investors were demanding even higher yields for taking on the companies' latest risk. The bonds ranked among the most actively traded in the high-yield, or "junk" bond market, according to data tracked by MarketAxess.

...more...

:shrug:

[hang a left]

84. And the MSM will blame it on the Administration Indictments. eom

[Changenow]

86. Who could have known the stock market would collapse? nt

[AnneD]

117. let's see......

how many monthes have we been saying this on this board?????? No suprised economists here.

[UpInArms]

79. T.Rowe's Rogers sees cash crunch for US consumers

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-11T165957Z_01_N11472371_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FUND-ROGERS.XML

<snipping past cheerleading>

... at some point the economy has to lose some steam, he said. And rising gasoline prices, higher heating bills and rising mortgage payments for those who have adjustable rates will put a dent in the consumer's wallet.

"It is not pretty right now," he said, referring to the American consumer. "You have to worry about how vibrant the consumer can be as we move into 2006."

Higher energy costs and the effect that can have on the economy will pressure inflation, but many companies will eat those costs because of stiff competition and the fact companies are sporting the best balance sheets in 50 years, he said.

...more...

Isn't that last sentence just an outright lie: companies are sporting the best balance sheets in 50 years, he said

[loudsue]

88. LOL!! Either he hasn't picked up a paper in a while, or...

:smoke: I want some of what he's smokin'!!!

:kick:

[ozymandius]

91. How to Withstand the Coming Bush Economic Crisis

By James J. Cramer

It’s dawning on wall street that George W. Bush may be the first president since Lyndon B. Johnson who believes that we can have a guns-and-butter federal spending policy without creating a serious inflation spiral, if not outright government bankruptcy. At least LBJ, to his credit, believed that there were limits to profligacy and that taxes had to be raised. Not President Bush. He’s making Johnson look like a fiscal conservative, what with his insistence on waging a war in Iraq that’s costing $177 million a day and rebuilding New Orleans by taking on a monstrous load of federal debt.

For the longest time, because Bush is a Republican, we on Wall Street simply didn’t believe that he could be a reckless spender. We knew only two paradigms: You either spent less and cut taxes or you spent more and raised taxes. Both courses at least presumed some sacrifice at some time. Not Bush’s plan. He’s gone on both the biggest spending binge and the lowest taxation course in U.S. history, which, alas, will produce gigantic liabilities down the road. Of course, he’ll be back on the ranch by the time his successor will have to deal with his inflation and currency debasement. Our only hope that financial disaster won’t strike sooner lies with the Chinese, who actually fund our deficit by buying our Treasuries—$242 billion worth, or 12 percent of all foreign holdings. If the Chinese decide to be good communists and stop buying our bonds, the Feds will have to raise rates to attract new investors and the reaper will be at our doorstep with interest rates more akin to those of South than North America. Right now, it’s not a problem. But in a year or two or maybe less, I perceive that the government will throw a bond auction and nobody will show, including the Chinese, until rates shoot up dramatically.

What if that happens? What if our fiscally clueless president really does keep spending at a rate that far exceeds what our government can take in at these low tax rates? What happens if the president’s acolytes and the Pollyannas in Treasury keep believing that we can grow our way, fairy-tale-like, out of this jam? You can bet that when you cash out your nest egg of nice U.S.-based mutual funds and solid common stocks, your dollars will fit nicely into a wheelbarrow designed specifically to cart worthless currency to the bank.

-cut-

Look, I don’t know how bad things are going to get. Fortunately, you can do only so much damage to the deficit in three years’ time. But considering Bush has never vetoed a spending bill and would rather die than raise taxes, you have to believe we’d be just plain stupid to make a huge 401(k) bet on strictly domestic stocks. I’m not waiting until the Chinese decide to walk away from the Treasuries table. I’d start buying these stocks now, even if I were a Republican.

more

[UpInArms]

92. 2:13 EST Yeah! Hurrah! More Interest Rate Hikes!

:eyes:

Dow 10,300.15 +61.39 (+0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,070.00 -8.92 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,186.46 -0.87 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.396 +0.35 (+0.80%)

NYSE Volume 1,448,815,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,176,844,000

2:00PM: The indices run in place, as little has occurred since the previous update. Still leading the Dow, General Motors (GM 27.42 +1.94) has surged 7.6% this afternoon, soaring on news within the hour that investor Kirk Kerkorian has received antitrust clearance to raise his stake in the company. In a September 21 regulatory filing, Kerkorian's Tracinda Corp., which holds a 9.5% stake in GM, said it intended to boost its ownership to up to 9.9% and may ask General Motors for representation on the board. Amongst the Dow's best performers are, following GM, AA, HON, IBM, HP, MCD, WMT, and XOM. Separately, the FOMC Minutes were released a short time ago; they didn't do anything to allay the market's concerns about Fed tightening lasting longer than previously expected.NYSE Adv/Dec 1517/1686, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1130/1757

1:30PM: Little has changed for the equity market over the past half hour, with the indices still trading in mixed fashion and sector standing still split. The dollar, meanwhile, has been stronger versus most major currencies today; with no economic data hitting the session's wires, traders direct attention to the upcoming of minutes from the Federal Reserve's Sept. 20 policy meeting. Although one Fed governor dissented at that meeting, the minutes are expected to reflect a willingness among Fed policy-makers to remain on a rate hiking course - a factor that has been supportive for the dollar in recent weeks. NYSE Adv/Dec 1445/1731, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1119/1760

[JNelson6563]

93. Holy Cow!! PPT back with a vengeance!!

2:13

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dow 10,309.60 +70.84 (+0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,071.82 -7.10 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,189.03 +1.70 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.396% +0.03

Musta been a three martini lunch and the PPT's feelin' frisky!

:toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

99. 2:37 EST numbers and "market defies reality" blather

Dow 10,297.84 +59.08 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,072.29 -6.63 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,189.48 +2.15 (+0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.391 +0.30 (+0.69%)

NYSE Volume 1,591,996,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,295,326,000

2:30PM: Despite the understanding that the FOMC Minutes suggest the Fed will likely stay on its tightening course longer than previously expected, the market has held its own following the release. Aside from the support provided by General Motors (GM 27.10 +1.62), the market has been buttressed by the recognition that the Minutes aren't revealing anything entirely new. That, in turn, has created a sense that the news has already been accounted for in stock prices, especially since there has been more recent hawkish commentary from Fed officials. Accordingly, the market hasn't been rattled by the headlines from the Minutes that reveal the Fed discussed a "worrisome loss of fiscal discipline" or that the Fed said "upside risks to inflation" increased after the storm.NYSE Adv/Dec 1452/1766, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1057/1845

[54anickel]

95. Deflation's revenge on illusory wealth

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=47467

snip>

Bailout Impossible


Although nearly everyone seems to think the Fed will effect some sort of bailout before a meltdown occurs, the fact is, there is no practical way to do so. An administered hyperinflation is most certainly not the answer, since it would destroy savers and lenders as a class, rendering the bond markets largely inoperable for perhaps a generation. Far more likely is that liquidations will simply be allowed to run their course, punishing sinners more or less in proportion to their sins.


A global financial panic is certain to stampede savings into Treasury paper. But gold bugs may be deluding themselves to think that any subsequent disintermediation would favor gold assets above all others. In the first place, cash credit for the purchase of precious metals will have been reduced by liquidations to a tiny fraction of the amount currently available. Secondly, what crumbs remain of the world’s liquid savings will likely go not into bullion, but toward survival. Whether you are a firm or an individual, you’re going to use every scarce dollar you can lay your hands on to keep the bill collectors at bay and a roof over your head. Well down the financially flattened household’s list of budget priorities will be the need to purchase bullion to protect one’s paltry remaining net worth from the ravages of inflation.

The Post-Mortem

When the workout teams tote up assets and liabilities, the post-mortem will show that America’s economic engine had been running on fumes for years and that most of our supposed wealth was merely a credit-induced mirage. Hard to believe? Then ponder this: Derivative debt instruments currently in play total $248 trillion, according to the most recent figures from the Bank of International Settlements. This compares with a global economy in real goods and services amounting to a little less than $40 trillion. It’s not a case of the tail wagging the dog, but of the tail wagging an entire financial cosmos.

snip>

For now, deflation’s overwhelming power will remain submerged until the dollar’s climb begins to accelerate. When that happens, the burden of debt for all who owe dollars will increase commensurately. Few could want this outcome, but it is all but unavoidable – a manifestation of Murphy’s Law in a world that cannot afford to pay back what it owes with dollars that come any dearer than they are now.

Unfortunately, evidence that the dollar is primed to go the “wrong” way could not be more obvious. In the chart below, you can see that it has been in a mild uptrend for most of 2005. If you had known at the beginning of the year that America’s budget would be subjected to the shock of two catastrophic hurricanes, a still-burgeoning trade deficit, a $350 billion war and an unprecedented spending binge on Capitol Hill, you’d have thought the almighty buck was headed into a perfect storm.

more...

[ozone_man]

116. Great article.

Scary, but I think he's right. It is time to think about economic survival.

But my fear is that the collapse will unfold so quickly that there will be no time to panic, much less secure one’s assets against the unknowable. Under the circumstances, it’s worth asking what kind of shape you’d be in if you were to awaken on Monday to news that the markets, because of some epic crisis, have shut down indefinitely.

[JNelson6563]

100. Reality setting in?

3:00 and things seem to be cooling down....

Dow 10,266.37 +27.61 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,065.57 -13.35 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,185.89 -1.44 (-0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.388% +0.03

Uh-oh.

Julie

[54anickel]

102. Like a rock at 3:33

edit for htm

Dow 10,235.24 -3.52 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,058.23 -20.69 (-1.00%)
S&P 500 1,183.34 -3.99 (-0.34%)
10-yr Bond 4.384% +0.02
30-yr Bond 4.59% +0.02
NYSE Volume 1,926,512,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,557,598,000


3:00PM: While moving lower, the major averages stay within the afternoon's trading range. The Healthcare sector (-0.5%) remains one of the session's laggards, now placing just above Telecom's (-1.6%) last-place performance. Extended weakness in healthcare suppliers (i.e., BOL, MIL) and in healthcare equipment (i.e., BCR, BAX, BDX, BSX, FSH, TMO, WAT) have kept the sector beneath the flat line throughout the day. Healthcare services stands as the sector's sole bright patch, but it's modest 0.5% gain is unable to counter wide-spread selling pressure. An article in the Wall Street Journal today, which discussed Medicare's potential effects on drug companies, may have added to Healthcare's weakness.NYSE Adv/Dec 1482/1755, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1128/1828

[ozymandius]

103. What was THAT?

over 70 in the Dow about an hour ago and now almost nothing?

3:38Dow 10,239.64 +0.88 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,059.26 -19.66 (-0.95%)
S&P 500 1,183.81 -3.52 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 43.84 +0.23 (+0.53%)
NYSE Volume 1,968,522,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,590,801,000

I've gotta run. See you folks later.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

105. Perhaps Shrub's scatology has hit the fan? ..n/t

[UpInArms]

106. 3:45 EST moving back up

Dow 10,264.93 +26.17 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,062.70 -16.22 (-0.78%)
S&P 500 1,185.78 -1.55 (-0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.384 +0.23 (+0.53%)

NYSE Volume 2,040,782,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,649,580,000

3:30PM: Like recent sessions, selling pressure has picked up during the final hour of trading. The Nasdaq carves out a fresh low of the day as the Dow's afternoon gain is all but erased. The blue chip average, which touched a five-month low yesterday and was up as many as 74 points shortly after the release of the FOMC Minutes, is struggling to stay in positive territory. The market's breadth refelects a bearish bias; on the NYSE, decliners outpace advancers 9-to-7, while, on the Nasdaq, decliners maintain a 19-to-11 edge.NYSE Adv/Dec 1415/1840, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1078/1887

[54anickel]

107. Come on now - with these Adv/Dec numbers the DOW bounces 20+?

Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1255 (36%) 864 (27%)
Declines 2007 (58%) 2118 (67%)
Unchanged 144 (4%) 160 (5%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 680 (35%) 314 (20%)
Down Vol* 1193 (62%) 1212 (77%)
Unch. Vol* 22 (1%) 41 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 30 43
New Lo's 180 121

[UpInArms]

110. 3:54 EST flopping around like a fish on the bank

Dow 10,250.20 +11.44 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,060.89 -18.03 (-0.87%)
S&P 500 1,184.73 -2.60 (-0.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.384 +0.23 (+0.53%)
NYSE Volume 2,122,398,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,715,902,000

[54anickel]

113. I think they've been outta the water a bit too long...

[54anickel]

104. Delphi wage push may set labor trend

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3390866

snip>

This could be the first step in the unwinding of another American industrial tradition — the era of the privileged and protected blue-collar assembly line worker.

If Delphi, which filed for Chapter 11 protection on Saturday, gets what it seeks in wage and benefit reductions from union members, the pay for members of the United Auto Workers could shrink to as little as $10 an hour from the current $27. Their benefits almost certainly would drop as well.

Those drastic cuts would come not only as a blow to thousands of Delphi workers, but they also could set the pattern for negotiations between the union and the Big Three domestic automakers, which for years have struggled to find ways to lower their costs on the assembly line.

"In one fell swoop, U.S. autoworkers are going from being solidly in the middle class to being part of the working poor by earning $10 an hour," said Harley Shaiken, a University of California-Berkeley labor expert.

snip>

By not helping Delphi, GM is warning the union to brace for tough talks two years from now, when the four-year contract ends, Burnham Securities analyst David Healy said.

more... :-(

[daleo]

114. That's quite a difference between the Dow and NASDAQ

I don't see that big a spread too often.

[UpInArms]

115. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,253.17 +14.41 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,061.09 -17.83 (-0.86%)
S&P 500 1,184.87 -2.46 (-0.21%)
10-Yr Bond 4.384 +0.23 (+0.53%)

NYSE Volume 2,272,528,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,851,828,000

Marooned within a trading range that kept the indices on both sides of the flat line, the stock market was roiled today by reinvigorated energy price action and continued inflation concerns that overshadowed expected Q3 earnings growth. Although a pair of upside Q3 earning reports, from Alcoa (AA 22.87 +0.21) and Genentech (DNA 84.50 +2.50) during yesterday's after hours session, gave traders early reason to reverse respective declines of 3.2%, 3.4%, and 3.5% on the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq over the last six sessions, gains were once again unsustainable and fell victim to heightened selling pressure during the final hour of trading. General Motors' (GM 26.51 +1.03) 4.0% gain, which was supported by reports that investor Kirk Kerkorian has received antitrust clearance to raise his stake in the company to 9.9%, stood as one of the market's only crutches and enabled the Dow to finish with a modest gain after hitting a five-month low yesterday. Energy price action drained much of the early steam, and a report from the American Gas Association that indicated home heating bills will increase 50% this year further agitated traders and diverted attention from the Q3 earnings season's commencement which is expected to reveal 15% earnings growth. Crude's rebound, alongside the gains in both gasoline and natural gas, fueled a 2.1% rise in the Energy sector today, but, aside from that sector's gain, leadership was again absent. Utilities had staged a parallel rebound after suffering some profit-taking, but sellers pared the sector's gain to a modest 0.1% by the session's close. Consumer Staples (+0.1%) and Materials (+0.1%) were the only other sectors on positive ground, but similarly headed towards the unchanged mark just ahead of the bell. For its part, Dow component Alcoa served as Materials' backbone, rising after Q3 EPS of $0.33 beat analysts' expectations by $0.04; upside momentum was limited, however, by the fact it had issued a profit warning in September. On the other side of the aisle, Telecom (-1.7%) led the way lower, but it was the 0.6% and 0.4% declines respectively incurred by Financials and Technology that served as the market's biggest impediments. With continued attention to the flattening yield curve, and challenged particularly by banks' and brokers' extended weakness, sellers again targeted the sector. The 2:00 ET release of minutes from the FOMC's Sept. 20th meeting validated inflation fears and underpinned the sense that the Fed will likely stay on its tightening course longer than previously expected, and thus did not make matters any better for the sector or for the inflation-flustered market. The recognition, though, that the Minutes revealed nothing entirely fresh and that the news has already been accounted for in stock prices perhaps limited the report's effect.DJTA +0.60, DJUA +0.56, DOT -0.57, Nasdaq 100 -0.50, Russell 2000 -1.10, SOX -1.67, S&P Midcap 400 -0.57, XOI +1.96, NYSE Adv/Dec 1255/2020, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 851/2142

and a bonus :eyes:

Dow celebrates bull's birthday a day late
Nasdaq and S&P 500 hold off their celebrations

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BABC0FB23%2D5454%2D4101%2DB6AC%2DB891818B52D4%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- It was a day late and lacked much fanfare, but the Dow Jones Industrials Average finally celebrated the third birthday of the current bull market.

The Dow ($INDU: news, chart, profile) closed Tuesday up 14 points at 10,253, but only 12 of its 30 components contributed to that index advance. See Market Snapshot.

The blue-chip barometer has now gained 42% since the bull market began -- or, that is, since the previous bear market ended.

Meanwhile, the Dow still needs to rally another 14% before reaching the all-time-high closing level of 11,723 notched Jan. 14, 2000.

Three years and a day earlier, the Dow had been down as much as 89 points at a five-year low of 7,197 in intraday trading, only to do an about-face and close up 248 points, or 3.4%, at 7,536. The gains were attributed to improved outlooks from Yahoo (YHOO: news, chart, profile) and Aetna (AET: news, chart, profile) and an unexpected drop in claims for weekly jobless benefits. Read more.

The following day, the Dow industrials surged 316 points, or 4.2%, to 7,850, driven by component General Electric's (GE: news, chart, profile) in-line profit report and reaffirmation of its outlook, plus an analyst upgrade of fellow index member IBM (IBM: news, chart, profile) . Read more.

...more...

[54anickel]

119. Oh UIA! Now I have to clean my beverage from the monitor! That's

too funny! The Bull's 3rd birthday, a day late. Like how they remind everyone just how low it's been. No mention of how long in the tooth it's getting though. It rallied through the lil idiot's campaign and has been range bound ever since. :eyes:

You don't suppose that rally was sort of rigged or that this "rangeboundness" is the result of attempts to avert a serious plunge - do ya?

[AnneD]

123. There is more bull on the market

than Bush's ranch.