STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 14 October

[ozymandius]

Thursday October 14, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 100 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 4 YEARS, 298 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 3 YEARS, 362 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1419
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 13, 2005

Dow... 10,216.59 -0.32 (-0.00%)
Nasdaq... 2,047.22 +9.75 (+0.48%)
S&P 500... 1,176.84 -0.84 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.48% +0.03 (+0.77%)
Gold future... 473.80 -2.80 (-0.59%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Frank Barbera

What's Ahead for the Energy Bull?

Hurricane Katrina made landfall in New Orleans at 5:45AM on Monday, August 29th. That day Crude Oil stood at $67.40, Unleaded Gasoline at $1.9650, Natural Gas at $11.26 and Heating Oil at 1.987. Since then, with the exception of Natural Gas (which has gained ground to $13.65), all three Oil related contracts have been weak with Crude Oil currently near $63.40, Gasoline near 1.7580 and Heating Oil about flat at 2.00. Despite massive follow on damage to the Gulf of Mexico infrastructure from Hurricane Rita and ongoing outages at U.S. Refineries, the bullish consensus has taken great solace in the idea that prices have yet to spike higher. The bullish mindset of the day with regard to Energy appears to run along the lines of, “Well, if prices haven’t gone up any further in the immediate aftermath of these two massive storms, chances are they have topped out and won’t move higher from here on.” While this mindset may yet turn out to be the case if the U.S. is lucky and has a mild winter, looking at the price action of the markets themselves suggests a very different potential outcome.

-cut-

From that point forward, Crude began an elongated, or what is technically known as an “extended” third wave advance. Within this Extended Third Wave, prices subdivided into smaller sets of rising 5-wave movements. The peak of Primary Wave (3) was finally seen in October 2004 at $55 and was swiftly followed by a sharp 27% decline comprising Primary Wave (4), which bottomed in December 2004 near $40. Within Elliott’s work, “Third Waves” are always the strongest portion of an advance on a technical basis, and as such usually define the momentum peak of a bull market. This is clearly evident by an examination of Weekly MACD, which reached its highest value at Point A in late October 2004 as Primary Wave Three peaked. Since December 2004, Crude Oil has been rising within a five wave advancing pattern and has now completed what appears to be Waves 1 thru 4 of Primary Wave (5). The implication from the Elliott Pattern, is that Intermediate Wave 5 of Primary Wave (5) still lies in front of us, and where commodity market “bull markets” are concerned, this can often be THE most dramatic phase of the entire advance.

-cut-

Looking at some of the other Energy contracts, we see very strong, if not unprecedented levels of upside momentum present on the medium term charts. Like a ball being fired into the air, there is a point of maximum upside thrust which is never the peak height of the rising ball. Inexorably, the ball will continue to rise for a long period of time, but with less upside force behind it until all upside momentum is expended. Only then, will the ball roll over and begin falling back to earth. In calculus, the rate of change equation describes this behavior where the maximum rate of change is seen long before the final high. Put another way, where energy markets are concerned right now, just look at the MACD for Unleaded Gasoline or Heating Oil on the next two charts. MACD measures the upside thrust behind an advancing market and has continued making new highs in both of these distillate contracts over the last few weeks. The serious and almost irrefutable argument from these weekly charts is the conclusion that we are still facing much higher energy prices yet to come in winter, as the current levels of upside momentum on the weekly charts are virtually unprecedented.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Oil below $63 on signs of weak US demand

LONDON (Reuters) - After a brief rally this week, oil prices fell below $63 a barrel on Friday on signs of flagging demand from the world's biggest consumer.

U.S. data on Thursday showed demand for gasoline and distillates stuck below year-ago levels. The figures overshadowed earlier forecasts for a rebound in consumption next year.

-cut-

Oil prices, which hit a 10-week low of $60.25 on Monday, bounced back this week after the West's energy watchdog said demand growth would accelerate next year, despite record prices. But later data from the U.S. government undermined sentiment.

U.S. gasoline demand over the past four weeks averaged 8.8 million bpd, 2.4 percent below the year-ago period, while distillate demand for that period was down 4 percent, weekly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.

more

[ozymandius]

3. Gas and Oil Heating Costs to Soar This Winter

Some of the most common types of fuel used for heating will cost households 32 to 48 percent more this winter than last year, according to the latest government forecast, released yesterday.

The steepest increase will be for natural gas, with the average household paying $350, or 48 percent, more this winter, according to the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration. Households using heating oil face a 32 percent increase, or an additional $378. The average bill for households using electricity to heat their homes is expected to climb $38, or 5 percent, over last winter.

Hardest hit by increasing heating bills will be people with low incomes who already have been spending more on gasoline. State officials have been pressing Congress for more funding for a program that provides financial assistance to help low-income people pay winter heating bills.

more

[Roland99]

11. But no federal help for the poor. Let them eat (frozen) cake.

[UpInArms]

116. Nov Crude closes @ $62.63 bbl - NatGas @ $13.219 mln btus

3:01pm 10/14/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES AT $62.63/BRL, DOWN 45C FOR THE DAY

3:01pm 10/14/05 NOV CRUDE CLOSES UP 79C, OR 1.3%, FOR THE WEEK

3:12pm 10/14/05 NOV NATURAL GAS ENDS AT $13.219/MLN BTUS, UP 0.% FOR THE DAY

3:12pm 10/14/05 NOV NATURAL GAS NEAR FLAT FROM WEEK-AGO CLOSE OF $13.226

(added NatGas on edit)

[ozymandius]

4. Trade Deficit Climbs on Higher Oil Prices

WASHINGTON - The nation's oil bill surged to a record in August and so did goods imported from China, pushing the U.S. trade deficit to the third-highest level ever. And it is bound to get worse because hurricane-related increases for oil are still ahead.

The deficit rose to $59 billion, about $1.1 billion more than the previous month, the Commerce Department said Thursday. There was a big increase in export sales of commercial jetliners, but that was swamped by foreign oil imports.

-cut-

"Record crude prices usually mean record trade gaps. Nobody sees relief on the energy front any time soon," said Oscar Gonzalez, senior economist at John Hancock Financial Services in Boston.

Economists said this year's trade deficit could exceed $700 billion, far above last year's imbalance of $617.6 billion.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Wary before CPI

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Investors will be on inflation watch Friday as the much anticipated Consumer Price Index could set the direction for stocks.

U.S. stock futures were up ahead of the 8:30 a.m. ET CPI report, although a comparison to fair value suggested a mixed or flat open for major stock indexes.

Economists surveyed by Briefing.com are forecasting that CPI surged 0.9 percent in September due to record gasoline prices, compared with a 0.5 percent rise in August. The so-called core-CPI, which excludes often-volatile food and energy prices, is expected to be up a more modest 0.2 percent, although that's more than the 0.1 percent rise in August.

Other economic reports that will get attention Friday include the government report on retail sales, forecast to be up 0.5 percent in September, and up 0.8 percent excluding relatively weaker auto sales. Later in the morning come reports on industrial production, capacity utilization, consumer confidence and business inventories.

more

[ozymandius]

6. Favorites pull ahead in Fed derby

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - When it comes to picking a successor to Alan Greenspan, whose term ends Jan. 31, leading Fed watchers are saying this is one time to expect the expected.

President Bush said last week he was getting close to naming a chairman for the nation's central bank. But experts say the chance of the president going outside the handful of widely discussed candidates has probably gone from slim to none, or almost none, due to criticism of Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers.

"Miers was so out of left field, it makes it even more likely this will not be one of those out-of-left field appointments," said Greg Valliere of Stanford Washington Research Group. "They can't risk the markets having the same reaction to their Fed pick that the conservative right wing is having to Miers."

That may increase the chances for former Fed Governor and current White House economic advisor Ben Bernanke, who David Wyss, chief economist for Standard & Poor's, now estimates has almost a 50-50 chance of getting the nod. Other Fed watchers agree Bernanke is a clear favorite, though Harvard economist Martin Feldstein, the president of the National Bureau of Economic Research, is seen as an almost co-favorite by some.

more

[ozymandius]

7. Tax code makeover: More modest, less rad

Got your torches and pitchforks ready?

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) – Over the past year, the tax panel appointed by President Bush to propose reforms for the U.S. federal tax code has considered revolutionary changes like scrapping the income tax and replacing it with a national retail sales tax.

But judging from the panel's latest discussions, the members will not propose anything of the kind when they submit their final report to the Treasury on Nov. 1.

-cut-

There's still one radical idea left on the table, however: a hybrid system that combines the income tax with a value-added tax (VAT).

-cut-

Here's how: taxpayers pay less tax on their income and have more control over how much VAT they pay, since they can choose to reduce their purchases*.

more

*Way to go fellas! Our consumer-based economy will certainly crumble if there is a great incentive to starve it.

[UpInArms]

19. Bush tax panel targets mortgage deduction

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/244579_mortgagededuct14.html

The deduction on home mortgage interest, a sacred cow cherished by millions of homeowners, may become far less generous, especially for taxpayers in such cities as Seattle with high and rising house prices.

Taxpayers can currently deduct all the interest on mortgage loans up to $1 million.

<snip>

The move would be a risky one in an economy already saddled with tremendous health care and pension costs, a troubled airline industry and soaring consumer debt, said Jeff Merkeley, a loan officer at Absolute Mortgage Corp. in Bellevue. The panel's proposal, he said, could hurt a healthy real estate industry that has helped boost an otherwise flat economy.

"We definitely are living large -- we see it in the houses, the cars and the debt levels," he said. "There's no free lunch. But nobody's giving up their sandwich, at least not voluntarily."

...more...

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.93 Change +0.12 (+0.13%)

Tomorrow's Economic Release Alerts: Dollar Set For A Busy Friday

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4179&Itemid=39

US Industrial Production (Sept) (MoM) (13:15 GMT, 09:15 EDT)
Outlook: -0.4%
Previous: 0.1%

Outlook: After taking a slight blow in August, industrial production is expected to have dropped 0.4 percent in September. This number reflects all the immediate and much of the lingering impact of both Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Hurricane Katrina shut down oil, gas and chemical production completely in the Gulf Coast for days and, despite all the recovery efforts, some production remained halted through the entire month. Hurricane Rita, although not nearly as severe as the first storm, scared many companies into stopping production and evacuating in the Texas coast area. Although there was not nearly as much debilitating destruction, these cautionary maneuvers did close down production for a few days. On top of the effects of the hurricanes, there is also a slowdown in overall production being seen as consumer demand is seen suffering amid oil price surging all over the country.

Previous: Industrial production fell short of expectations in August, rising only by 0.1 percent as Hurricane Katrina disrupted production of oil, gas and chemicals in the Gulf Coast region. It is estimated that the hurricane shaved 0.3 percentage points off of production for the month. The August figure, however, actually only caught about 3 days of production disruption from the hurricane. Nonetheless, during that time, virtually all production in the affected areas was halted, pulling the somewhat positive pre-Katrina numbers down. Automobile and parts production actually rose considerably as manufacturers such as General Motors began to rebuild inventories after summer sales. Despite the promising numbers that were being released before the hurricane, many factors are signaling that industrial production may be entering a slowdown after its expansion last year. Pulling the figures down was also a drop in electricity production, after a steep rise in June and July on a record hot summer.

...more at link...

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: Danger of Disappoints in US Data

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4185&Itemid=39

US Consumer Price Index (Sept) (MoM) (12:30 GMT, 08:30 EDT)

Headline
Outlook: 0.9%
Previous: 0.5%

ex food and energy
Outlook: 0.2%
Previous: 0.1%

Outlook: Consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.9 percent from August to September, the biggest rise in 15 years, pulled by surging energy costs after the hurricanes. Excluding volatile energy and food prices, the index is expected to have rose 0.2 percent, the highest rise since March, versus a 0.1 percent rise in August. Economists are expecting the rise, due to high energy prices, to begin seeping into other sectors indirectly forcing up all subsequent prices as companies are passing off costs to consumers. These price increases are signaling to the Fed that higher interest rates will be necessary to keep high inflation from become ingrained in the economy. Consumer prices for the 12 months ending in September are expected to be higher by 4.3 percent, following the rising trend even more dramatically than previous months. Again, without oil, the change is not expected to be as severe. In fact it is expected to grow the same as last month at 2.1 percent, the lowest year-over-year rise this year.

Previous: Driven by soaring energy costs, CPI rose 0.5 percent from July to August and 3.6 percent from August 2004, the biggest gain in four years. Excluding food and energy however, consumer price inflation was only 0.1 percent month over month and 2.1 percent year over year. August saw the record surge in oil prices, pushing overall CPI to levels not seen in years. However, taking the volatile energy component out of the index, inflation was not seen as high as the headline figure. Feeling the pinch of higher energy costs, it remains evident that businesses have not elected to pass on higher costs. However, with a continued rise in costs, higher prices to the consumer level may be forthcoming in the near term.


US Retail Sales (SEP) (12:30 GMT, 08:30 EDT)
Outlook 0.5%
Previous -2.1%

Outlook: Following August’s unexpected 2.1 percent drop in sales, retailer sales are expected to have returned to positive territory last month with forecasted 0.5 percent growth. Consumers increased their spending over the period as vehicle owners paid more to top off their gas tanks and those affected by the hurricane at the end of August looked to stockpile supplies. Storm-related buying of edible and emergency goods began in mid-August as the Southern states along the gulf coast prepared for Hurricane Katrina to make land fall. Going into September, consumers continued the trend in an attempt to help those displaced while another bout of stock piling took place in anticipation of another catastrophic disaster with Hurricane Rita. By far the most influential factor in the expected rise in sales will come with energy prices. Crude oil prices hit an all time high $70.85 per barrel on August 30th and the volatile commodity stayed above $60.00 through the remainder of the month. This led to a jump in the price of gasoline for consumers. The average price of unleaded for September was $2.90 per gallon. Looking ahead retail sales are likely to fall again in October as consumers look to cope with higher heating bills and storm-related buying levels out.

Previous: Retail sales fell 2.1 percent in August, the largest drop in nearly four years. The unexpected fall in sales came almost exclusively on the back of weakening demand for autos. Purchases of automobiles surged in July with dealers using employee discounts to attract potential customers. A more conclusive measure shows that excluding autos, sales at retailers actually rose 1.0 percent. This more stable measure represented stronger buying for gasoline and, towards the end of the month, purchases of supplies in preparation of the hurricane that was looming on the coast. Gasoline was increasingly becoming a more prominent contributor to the retail sales indicator since oil prices began to push higher in July. Further extracting sales at service stations pulls the headline retail indicator down to 0.5 percent growth. Retail sales, which account for nearly half of consumer spending, seems to be in jeopardy however as citizens’ tolerance for taking on the mounting cost of energy begins to wane.

...more...

[UpInArms]

35. Dollar falls after CPI, retail sales

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38639.3622328472-846065439&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar dropped after news that U.S. consumer inflation in September rose a larger-than-expected 1.2%, driven higher by a record rise in energy prices. However, the core rate, which excludes food and energy, increased just 0.1%. The headline figure was stronger than expected, but the core rate came in below projections of analysts polled by MarketWatch. Separately, the Commerce Department said retail sales rose 0.2% in September, powered by higher gas prices. The euro last traded at $1.2022, up from $1.1989 while the dollar was quoted at 114.57 yen, down from 114.83 yen before the reports.

[Changenow]

42. It's bouncing back

Lots of good news in the US.

[UpInArms]

65. looks like it's going dumpster diving again

per the charts on this page (hit refresh)

http://www.weblinks247.com/exrate/

[Changenow]

67. No hesitation there

straight down, what changed?

Silly question.

[UpInArms]

69. it has to do with the "core" inflation

that everyone is so thrilled about - if the "core" inflation is "tame" then the Fed won't raise interest rates and the dollar becomes much less attractive.

[UpInArms]

87. Looks like Refco was/is tied into the dollar's fall

Dollar hit by inflation; Refco-linked plays suspected

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B46E2FDE9%2DC3A9%2D49F7%2DB902%2DBF75BFA6A1CD%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Traders said there is talk of pressure on the dollar from institutions shifting acounts away from the scandal-rocked commodites broker Refco Inc. (RFX: news, chart, profile) . See full story.

The U.S. currency was last trading at 113.95 yen, down from 114.83 yen before the news. As recently as Thursday the dollar reached 115 yen.

The euro rose to $1.2084, contrasting with $1.1989 before release of the September CPI data, as well as the latest monthly retail sales. report.

...more...

:shrug:

[Changenow]

43. It's bouncing back

Lots of good news in the US.

[UpInArms]

80. a peek at the buck

Last trade 89.38 Change -0.43 (-0.48%)

Settle 89.81 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.69 Previous Close 89.81

High 90.09 Low 89.33

Last tick: 2005-10-14 11:33:53 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

108. still stumbing down the dark hallway

Last trade 89.32 Change -0.49 (-0.55%)

Settle 89.81 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.69 Previous Close 89.81

High 90.09 Low 89.25
Add DXY0 to my INO Portfolio

Last tick: 2005-10-14 14:20:22 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

9. Refco halts key unit operations

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-14T004754Z_01_MAR350680_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-REFCO.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Refco Inc., struggling to survive after its former chief executive was accused of hiding bad debts to dupe investors, on Thursday said a key unit no longer had enough cash to operate, sparking a sell-off in its bonds and fueling fears of possible bankruptcy.

Just a day after former CEO Phillip Bennett was charged with securities fraud, the commodities and futures brokerage said it was halting activities at its Refco Capital Markets unit -- a fixed-income, equities and foreign exchange brokerage -- for 15 days and freezing its accounts.

Share trading in Refco (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research), which only went public two months ago, was suspended ahead of the latest announcement and did not resume, with the New York Stock Exchange saying it had to evaluate the need for more disclosure and the continuing listing of Refco.

But the news rocked Refco's bonds, cutting their price nearly in half to 40 cents, according to MarketAxess. It had traded as high as 108.25 cents on the dollar late last week.

"This company is in serious jeopardy," said analyst Kevin Starke with Weeden & Co., adding that the bonds trading level suggested that bankruptcy is an increasing possibility.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Refco -- Wall Street's Public Offering From Hell: David Pauly

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&cid=pauly&sid=aKIJ8ILLwcfQ

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- It's one initial public offering some of Wall Street's finest wish they had never bid on.

Two months ago, New York-based futures broker Refco Inc. raised $670 million through its first public stock sale. This week, it said investors who put up that money hadn't been told the whole story.

Quickly, Refco Chief Executive Phillip Bennett was fired and put under arrest, charged with securities fraud. Refco said its published financial statements were suspect. The broker then blocked some customers from withdrawing money from accounts with an affiliate, Refco Capital Markets Ltd. It said this company represented ``a material portion'' of Refco's business and wasn't liquid enough to continue operating.

Refco's shares -- which were priced at $22 for the IPO and subsequently traded as high as $30.55 -- had plummeted to $7.90 yesterday before trading was stopped.

Looking foolish were the three securities firms that took Refco public: Credit Suisse First Boston, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. Refco auditor Grant Thornton LLP of Chicago certainly has questions to answer. Equally embarrassed is the buyout firm Thomas H. Lee Partners LP, which took control of Refco last year for $507 million and garnered $191 million from the IPO.

...more...

[salin]

29. Gee, sounds like it is time to loosen up Sarbanes/Oxley

as it is such a burden to businesses...

so sayeth the GOP in congress. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

23. World's hedge funds face crisis as Refco suspends trading

http://www.guardian.co.uk/frontpage/story/0,16518,1592055,00.html

A crisis in the world's hedge fund industry was in prospect last night after one of the world's largest derivatives brokers was forced to freeze trades potentially worth billions of pounds.

<snip>

The implications of the 15-day trading moratorium on the company's Refco Capital Markets subsidiary may be felt across the world financial system, depending upon the size of the funds caught up inside Refco and the types of institutions which are unable to remove their money from the operation. By locking the clients in, Refco, which has debts of $642m, is preventing a possible mass exodus of funds which could further jeopardise its trading position. While the company gave no details of the size of the funds it had tied up in its capital markets arm, it described the operation as representing a "material portion" of its business.

<snip>

On August 16, Refco proudly announced the completion of its flotation in New York. At an issue price of $22 a share (£12.50), the company was valued at $3.4bn. The cream of Wall Street's investment banks - and the odd European wannabe - handled the share sale: names such as Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Bank of America and Credit Suisse First Boston. Refco says it is the world's largest futures broker with 450 traders in offices around the world. As evidence of its market power, the firm announced this year that in the three months to the end of February, Refco's volume in the foreign exchange market alone was $111bn.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Problems at futures broker Refco weigh on commodities

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BD464595E%2DF45A%2D4A2E%2DBBFE%2D5ADA458D52FD%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Commodities have been hurt in the last several sessions by talk of a liquidity issue forming given the enormous volume Refco puts through on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, said Meir.

"We have our doubts the situation will be that dire, given that customer funds are segregated and accounts could easily be moved over to other firms," he said. "Instead, what could happen, is that investment money could pull away from commodities, while waiting for the "dust to settle".

...more...

[UpInArms]

40. Refco shutting down its Refco Securities unit-DTC

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-14T130334Z_01_N14530708_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The Refco Securities unit of Refco Inc. (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) has told the Depository Trust Company that it is beginning to wind down its business, according to a posting on the DTC Web site dated Oct. 13.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Friday that it restricted the ability of two Refco units', including Refco Securities, to make withdrawals of equity capital or unsecured loans or advances.

Refco's former chief executive, Phillip Bennett, was charged on Wednesday with securities fraud over hundreds of millions of dollars owed to the company by an entity he controlled.

adding line items on edit:

9:38am 10/14/05 DTC SAYS REFCO INFORMED IT IT'S WINDING DOWN SECURITIES UNIT

9:38am 10/14/05 SEC BARS REFCO FROM WITHDRAWING CAPITAL FOR 20 DAYS

[UpInArms]

47. REFCO SECURITIES LIQUIDATING ITS CUSTOMERS' POSITIONS

9:43am 10/14/05 DTC-REFCO SECURITIES LIQUIDATING ITS, CUSTOMERS' POSITIONS

[UpInArms]

60. Refco bonds plummet to 23 cents on the dollar

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-14T131702Z_01_N14709887_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-BONDS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Bonds issued by Refco Inc., (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) the futures and commodities broker enmeshed in an accounting scandal, dropped 17 cents on the dollar to 23 cents on the dollar on Friday morning, according to MarketAxess.

The notes, bearing a 9 percent coupon and maturing in 2012, have traded as low as 21 cents and 22 cents on the dollar on Friday. At 23 cents on the dollar, they yield 48 percent.

[UpInArms]

61. Refco's loans see-saw before lender call

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-14T141313Z_01_N14300193_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-LOANS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Refco Inc.'s (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $648 million of loans dropped on Friday morning, before settling back to their Thursday levels, as lenders braced for a conference call later in the morning, according to Loan Pricing Corp., a unit of Reuters Plc.

Bonds from Refco, a broker reeling from an accounting scandal involving $430 million of bad debt that likely should have been written down, plummeted 17 cents on the dollar to 23 cents on the dollar, indicating that bond investors see bankruptcy filing as highly likely.

Quoted prices on the loans, which are held mainly by institutions and are secured by Refco shares, traded as low as about 65 cents on the dollar, before rising to the 70-74 cents range, which is essentially where they closed on Thursday, LPC said.

<snip>

Lenders are entitled to demand immediate repayment on the loans because the company has violated its lending terms, an analyst told Reuters.

But the company cannot likely pay the loans back, and cannot likely agree to more stringent lending terms, analysts told Reuters on Wednesday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. FACTBOX-A breakdown of Refco Inc.'s operations

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-14T145632Z_01_N14531040_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-FACTBOX.XML

excerpt:

Derivatives

In 2004 was the largest provider of customer transaction volume to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. In its fiscal 2005 year processed more derivative contracts than the Chicago Board of Trade, the Chicago Board Options Exchange or the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Treasuries

Cleared over $13.7 trillion in U.S. Treasury repurchase transactions, the eighth largest in terms of cash transaction volume.

Foreign Exchange

Global foreign exchange transactions tripled in last three fiscal years to $1.22 billion in fiscal 2005.

Revenues

$1.3 billion in fiscal 2005, a compound annual growth rate of 23.6 percent since 2000.

...more...

[UpInArms]

83. Refco shuts down main business as scandal grows

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-14T160646Z_01_N14710903_RTRIDST_0_INANCIAL-REFCO-UPDATE-3.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Refco Inc. (RFX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said it was shutting down its main business on Friday as its bond prices plunged to levels often associated with bankruptcy after the former chief executive of the big commodities brokerage was arrested on fraud charges.

Refco Securities LLC, a broker-dealer that accounts for more than half of Refco's gross revenues, said it was unwinding clients' and its own positions. When a brokerage says it is unwinding positions, it means it is no longer taking new clients and is essentially going out of business.

Refco's auditors Grant Thornton LLP said what was happening at the company "appears to be a purposeful deception that required participation by senior management."

The move to shut down Refco Securities LLC followed the halting of activities on Thursday at the company's Refco Capital Markets unit, a prime broker that served the hedge fund community.

Refco's bank lenders gathered for a conference call late Friday morning to discuss Refco's $648 million of loans, according to Loan Pricing Corp.

...more...

$648 Million in loans? Wow! That's a bit of "exposure".

[UpInArms]

88. S&P lowers Refco Group ratings; may downgrade further

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7B09F3BA75-24B1-48B3-B244-12F38C3853DB%7D&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services on Friday downgraded its long-term counterparty credit rating on Refco Inc.'s (RFX) Refco Group Ltd. to CC from B-. S&P also lowered the company's senior secured debt rating to C from B-, and the subordinated debt rating to C from CCC. The agency said the ratings remain on creditwatch negative where they were placed on Oct. 10. The downgrades follow Refco's announcement that its regulated broker dealer, Refco Securities LLC, has starting unwinding proprietary and client positions, S&P said. The agency also noted that the Chicago Mercantile Holdings Inc.'s (CME) Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) said yesterday that it is prohibiting Refco LLC, the regulated futures subsidiary of Refco Group, from withdrawing capital without the CME's permission. These developments indicate that a technical default by Refco Group on its rated debt is almost certain to occur and that a payment default is likely due to its negative tangible net worth and the deterioration of its franchise, S&P said.

That $648 Million is just going to up and "disappear" :think:

[54anickel]

99. Ewww-weee, that's a mess. Gotta wonder what and how much they

were shorting, being a hedge fund, and the huge amount of trades they were responsible for from some of your other posts, I'm thinking there might have been a "whole lotta shortin' goin' on". Then again, we'll probably never know. I bet this is rockin' the Fed more than they'll ever let onto.

[UpInArms]

107. I think it's shaking a lot more than what is visible on the surface

see my post

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=1849048&mesg_id=1849833

[54anickel]

111. REFCO COLLAPSE MAY ROIL RATES

http://www.nypost.com/business/53503.htm

October 14, 2005 -- The era of cheap mortgages finally ended yesterday, triggering widespread anxieties that our economy could be rolling toward a brick wall.
After fueling one of the most free-spending decades on record, the cheap, fixed-rate mortgage jumped virtually overnight from its historic 40-year lows to root permanently beyond the psychologically important 6 percent level yesterday, where economists believe it will keep rising dramatically.

Rising fuel costs, overall inflation and even the collapse of the big bond trading outfit Refco were blamed.

snip>

Other Wall Streeters were more pessimistic.

"We're on our way to a train wreck," said Peter Schiff, CEO and investment chief at Euro Capital Partners.

"We've been living in this fantasy bubble for too long. People are going to find out their pensions and homes aren't worth what they thought."

more...

[UpInArms]

113. "We've" - is stupid

"We've been living in this fantasy bubble for too long. People are going to find out their pensions and homes aren't worth what they thought."

All these morans had to do was look up and realize that the moon is not made of swiss cheese, the sky is blue and grass is green.

That "bubble" is bullshit and their utter stupidity and denial of the facts is ridiculous.

[UpInArms]

118. Governance fails at Refco

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/breaking_news/12903698.htm

NEW YORK - Congratulations, most everybody at Refco Inc.! Before this week, few investors had heard of your commodities futures brokerage firm. Now, you're making headlines with a financial scandal that is being compared to the mess that sank Enron Corp.

This isn't just a story of a CEO who has done wrong. It's about a complete breakdown in corporate behavior that allowed the mishandling of the company's finances to go on even as legions of bankers, lawyers and accountants pored over the books ahead of Refco's successful August IPO.

Now that Refco has called into question the validity of its financial statements for the last three years, its CEO has been charged with securities fraud and its business appears to be crumbling fast, it's not surprising that investors have bolted from the stock.

"When you become a public company, you are held to a standard that is ethically higher. You need to know everything and be clear on everything that you do," said Robert Bushman, a forensic accountant who teaches at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. "That's not what we see here."

...more...

[54anickel]

125. That's what I want to know...HOW was this company even able to

offer an IPO? And how did they get sooooo many on the bandwagon so damned fast? I wonder if there'll be a remaining stench surrounding those legions of bankers, lawyers and accountants that supposedly poured over the books.

Remember the first day this came out - I googled and posted a couple of hits showing some shenannigans on this company before the IPO. Don't investors do any homework before pouring in millions of dollars? Sheesh!!!

[UpInArms]

10. Holiday may not be merry for retailers

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-13T234743Z_01_DIT385619_RTRUKOC_0_US-RETAIL-STOCKS.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - As the holiday season approaches, retailers are stocking shelves for throngs of shoppers, but Wall Street seems to have low hopes for a profitable season.

Soaring gas and heating oil costs, rising interest rates, and an upcoming increase in minimum credit card payments could eat into consumers' discretionary cash in the coming months, analysts said.

<snip>

"I don't think these companies results have merited getting hit this hard, but investors are getting concerned with consumer spending as we move into the all-important Christmas season," said Joseph Beaulieu, senior stock analyst with Morningstar.

There is concern that spending, particularly by cash-strapped consumers, will be pressured by these continued high energy prices. A slowing real estate market and rising mortgage rates may also stem some buying, and the long-term economic impact from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita is still unclear.

What's more, commodity costs are on the rise, fueling inflation worries, and the ongoing war in Iraq and terror alert warnings add to the uncertainty.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Wood River (Hedge Fund) manager says did not commit fraud

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T220035Z_01_N13669607_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-HEDGE-WOODRIVER-WHITTIER-UPDATE-2.XML

BOSTON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Hedge fund Wood River's founder, John Whittier, charged with fraud by U.S. financial regulators, on Thursday agreed to put his funds into receivership and said he did not break any securities laws, his lawyer said.

"Mr. Whittier has consented to place the Funds into receivership and to a partial freeze on his personal assets," Elliot Peters, a partner at law firm Keker & Van Nest, LLP, said in a statement. "There was no self dealing. There was no personal enrichment. There was no fraud," Peters added in the statement.

Earlier in the afternoon, the Securities and Exchange Commission charged Whittier, a former investment banking analyst turned hedge fund manager, with fraud for having misled investors on how his funds would be run.

The hedge fund came under scrutiny after investors complained about not reaching Whittier and worrying the fund might have collapsed.

The SEC charged that Whittier made "material misrepresentations" on the oversight and diversification of the two funds he managed -- the Wood River Partners LP fund and the Wood River Partners Offshore Ltd fund.

SEC documents show Whittier placed an huge bet in telecommunications company Endwave, owning roughly 4.3 million shares, even though he told investors he would not make overly concentrated bets, keeping his stakes in any one stock to between 5 percent and 8 percent.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Wood River manager to put funds into receivership

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T214402Z_01_N13669607_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-HEDGE-WOODRIVER-WHITTIER-UPDATE-1.XML

BOSTON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Hedge fund Wood River's founder John Whittier, charged with fraud by U.S. financial regulators, on Thursday agreed to put his funds into receivership and said he did not break any securities laws, his lawyer said.

"Mr. Whittier has consented to place the Funds into receivership and to a partial freeze on his personal assets," Elliot Peters, a partner at law firm Keker & Van Nest, LLP said in a statement. "There was no self dealing. There was no personal enrichment. There was no fraud," Peters added in the statement.

<snip>

The hedge fund came under scrutiny after investors complained about not reaching Whittier and worrying that he had placed a huge bet in telecoms company Endwave only to see the shares plummet in recent months.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. PNM Resources says may have lost Wood River stake

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=fundsNews2&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20051012:MTFH78612_2005-10-12_11-37-21_N12321485:1

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - New Mexico utility holding company PNM Resources Inc. (PNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) does not know if it will be able to recover any of a $3.6 million investment in hedge fund Wood River Partners LP, the company said in a filing with securities regulators.

PNM said in the filing late Tuesday the stake was part of a $12 million cash management program and that it determined on Oct. 7 the investment in Wood River had lost market value.

"At this time, (the company) does not have any basis by which to estimate the amount, if any, of recovery of the Wood River investment," PNM said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

25. Wood River Hedge Fund Says It's Late to File Details on Endwave

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aT8oW.puHMBg&refer=us

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Wood River Capital Management LLC, the hedge fund run by former Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette Inc. analyst John Whittier, said in a U.S. regulatory filing that it was late to disclose how much stock it held of Endwave Corp.

Wood River reported on Oct. 7 to the Securities and Exchange Commission that it owned 4.29 million shares of Endwave Corp., a Sunnyvale, California-based supplier of wireless- communications equipment. The firm said the incomplete filing was made to ``avoid further delay'' in showing how much stock it owned of Endwave. Further information will be reported in amended filings, Wood River said.

The SEC has initiated a preliminary inquiry of Wood River and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. has filed a lawsuit, alleging the No. 4 U.S. securities firm had at least $8.6 million of losses from dealings with the hedge fund, the Wall Street Journal reported. The suit claims Lehman bought shares of Endwave for Wood River and sold the stock at a loss after it was unable to get in touch with Wood River officials, the Journal said. Shares of Endwave have declined 76 percent since July.

<snip>

Wood River made the Endwave disclosure in a form 13D, which must be submitted to the SEC within 10 business days of the acquisition or sale of a security by an investor that owns 5 percent or more of the outstanding stock of a company. The filing didn't say when the firm crossed the 5 percent threshold. Endwave's shares have plunged to $13.49 since hitting a 52-week high of $55.11 on July 13.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. US junk bond funds report $406 mln weekly outflow

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T210241Z_01_N13165404_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-JUNK-AMG-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. junk bond mutual funds reported $406 million of net outflows in the week ended Wednesday, up from a revised $72 million outflow the prior week, AMG Data reported on Thursday.

The funds have reported outflows for five straight weeks and have lost about $10 billion in net outflows in the year-to-date.

Junk bonds, which are rated below investment-grade, have suffered a sell-off this month amid worries about inflation, rising interest rates, waning consumer confidence and troubles in the auto sector.

...more...

[4dsc]

21. $88billion of US corporate debt slides towards junk status

http://www.energybulletin.net/9734.html

Hertz Corp., the world's largest car rental firm, and radio broadcaster Clear Channel Communications are among 46 companies that probably will be categorized as noninvestment grade, according to credit-rating company Standard & Poor's.

A surge in debt-financed takeovers and concern that higher oil prices will hurt profit growth is eviscerating credit quality in the $5 trillion market for corporate bonds, according to some strategists

Not since the Depression of 1929 has corporate America received so many black eyes.

And if history is any guide, there will be no rebound soon. "You don't see companies get downgraded and work their way up, by and large," said Greg Peters, head of U.S. credit strategy at New York-based Morgan Stanley.

[UpInArms]

27. flashing back to the 1920s

http://www.huppi.com/kangaroo/Timeline.htm

excerpt:

Over the decade, about 1,200 mergers will swallow up more than 6,000 previously independent companies; by 1929, only 200 corporations will control over half of all American industry.

By the end of the decade, the bottom 80 percent of all income-earners will be removed from the tax rolls completely. Taxes on the rich will fall throughout the decade.

By 1929, the richest 1 percent will own 40 percent of the nation's wealth. The bottom 93 percent will have experienced a 4 percent drop in real disposable per-capita income between 1923 and 1929.

<snip>

Automobile sales decline by a third in the nine months before the crash.

...more...

[4dsc]

30. Just a matter of time before RECESSION!!

I fully believe we will see a major recession/depression within the next two years..

[UpInArms]

15. Fed - one large 1-day net reserve-projection miss

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-13T202854Z_01_N13664598_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-RESERVEPROJECTIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it had one large one-day net miss in reserve-projection in the week ended Oct. 12.

The miss occurred on Wednesday, Oct. 12, when the float was higher than expected resulting in an increase in reserves.

Transportation float averaged about $670 million per day, with the highest on Wednesday, Oct. 12 at about $1.7 billion due to inclement weather in the Northeast.

[UpInArms]

62. Check-Kiting: Fed adds temporary reserves via four-day RPs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-14T133728Z_01_N14346387_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Friday it was adding temporary reserves to the banking system through four-day system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 3.750 percent, the Fed's target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

See for recent Fed open market operations.

[UpInArms]

81. Fed's Poole: Meanspin's "Legacy" is fragile

12:00pm 10/14/05 POOLE: GREENSPAN LEGACY FRAGILE AS RULES CAN'T BE CODIFIED

12:00pm 10/14/05 POOLE: NO FORMAL RULE MATCHES POLICY OF GREENSPAN ERA

12:00pm 10/14/05 POOLE: GREENSPAN MONETARY POLICY NOT WITHOUT CERTAIN RULES

12:00pm 10/14/05 FED'S POOLE: PREDICTABLE POLICY HIGHLIGHT OF GREENSPAN ERA

personal note: Am waiting to find out where the POS is planning to be buried :evilgrin:

(adding link and blurb on edit)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-14T155951Z_01_WAT004193_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-POOLE-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis President William Poole said on Friday that as yet, there was no rule that did a better job on monetary policy than current Fed practice, which financial markets predict well.

"Monetary economists have not yet developed a formal rule that is likely to have better operating properties than the Fed's current practice," Poole said in a speech at the Cato Institute. The text of his remarks was made available to the media prior to delivery.

"It is highly desirable that policy practice be formalized to the maximum possible extent," he said.

Poole, who is not a voting member of the central bank's policy-setting committee this year, had previously voiced reservations about the forward-looking language used in bank policy statements since 2003.

[54anickel]

93. Heh-heh, So much for the Fed obtaining ISO Certification...n/t

[UpInArms]

98. Treasuries sag, tame core CPI unlikely to sway Fed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-14T180226Z_01_N14497909_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices retreated rapidly on Friday as investors quickly dismissed a tame core inflation reading, focusing instead on the likelihood of further increases in official interest rates.

A sudden jump in benchmark yields to a six-month high unleashed a fresh wave of technical selling.

The market's failure to rally convincingly encouraged bears, who stepped in to test the recent high of 4.509 percent in 10-year note yields. They were ultimately successful in breaking that level, pushing yields briefly to 4.532 percent, the highest since April.

Yet this lofty threshold proved difficult to hold. In afternoon trade, 10-year notes were down 10/32 and yielding 4.51 percent, up from 4.47 percent on Thursday.

"We got some good news from core inflation but it's perceived to be temporary, so we're back to focusing on the risks of inflation and Fed tightening again," said Mary Ann Hurley, vice president of fixed-income trading at D.A. Davidson & Co. in Seattle, Washington.

"The attitude right now is so overwhelmingly bearish, and of course so is all the Fed yak."

...more...

[UpInArms]

117. Treasurys close lower on rate increase fears

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38639.6280852431-846124926&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasurys closed lower Friday, pushing yields higher, amid investor perception that even tame consumer inflation will not convince the Federal Reserve to stop raising rates. The yield on the benchmark Treasury note ($TNX) closed at 4.491%, up from the 4.46% yield seen after data showing that core inflation rose just 0.1%, below expectations. Earlier in the day the yield rose to 4.521%, its highest level in six months.

[UpInArms]

16. Big Oil's big surprise: not so big profits

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=reutersEdge&storyID=2005-10-13T205623Z_01_DIT375429_RTRIDST_0_PICKS-ENERGY-EARNS-OUTLOOK-DC.XML

NEW YORK (Reuters) - After making a habit of blowing past earnings forecasts, Big Oil has a surprising story for Wall Street this quarter: less than blockbuster profits.

Thanks to two major hurricanes that slammed into the U.S. Gulf coast in quick succession, major oil companies are expected to post a surge in third quarter profits -- but well below what Wall Street initially hoped for.

The hurricanes, which at the peak of their devastation knocked out almost all oil and gas production in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico and about a quarter of U.S. refining capacity, did help Big Oil by sending oil prices and refining margins skyward. But it also left companies with major operations in the region grappling with production and refinery outages and the costs of repairing damaged facilities -- all of which are expected to hit third quarter earnings.

As hurricanes Katrina and Rita sent energy prices through the roof, many major oil companies, contrary to popular belief, also held back from passing on the full costs on to gasoline prices, resulting in poor marketing margins this quarter, analysts said.

Though these costs may be a temporary hit to earnings, oil companies also face slumping oil demand longer term due to high gasoline prices, signs of which have already appeared in government data.

...more...

:nopity:

[ozymandius]

17. So are they pre-expensing the total cost of these repairs?

I can understand that oil companies would stand to save a bundle in taxes by pre-expensing. But is this what's happening and, if so, legal?

[UpInArms]

18. I think that they are just firing a warning salvo because

their production capacities were shut-in for the hurricanes and their equipment is still not operating at 100%.

This article doesn't give any hints regarding when the expensing for repairs will occur.

Part of that answer will come when their quarterly come in - and if they have any funds in a set-aside account for major maintainence and repairs.

[AnneD]

73. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: You are right UIA, if you want to find out what is really happening, check the next few quarters. They will really need a chunk of change to do the repairs.
I just want to make you guys aware of something that would never make the news. In this day and age where most companies treat their employees as disposable interchangable parts...I came across a company that may be a gem. One of my Katrina parent came in and we were talking about the new bankruptcy law, etc. I ask her if she was well positioned. She said that the company she worked for....Hibernia Bank called all their employees togather on the last working day before the hurricane hit. They were all given an envelope with a letter and their pay. They were told that if they had to evacuate, call the 800 number and let them know where they were. They would be transfered to that area and still be on the payroll. They were also provided with an apartment and a stipend until they could come to work. She spoke in the most glowing terms of her company. I was so impressed with them.

[UpInArms]

77. Morning AnneD!

Thanks for the Hibernia story - it does me good to know that there are some employers that do understand how it works in real life :D

[AnneD]

96. I believe in Karma

It is the true golden rule....do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Failure to do so will result in severe cosmic penalties lasting as long as it takes said offender to learn the error of their ways.... I can only imagine the penalties that some folks are racking up.
I like to put money where customers and employees are well treated. It shows the company has a godly spirit. My socially responsible investments always do well for me.

[UpInArms]

20. Salaried jobs also may go at Delphi

http://www.detnews.com/2005/autosinsider/0510/14/C01-348481.htm

Delphi Corp. may eliminate salaried positions as it moves to undertake several restructuring moves in bankruptcy court.

The company is also exploring the need to slash health care benefits for salaried retirees under the age of 65 as part of an effort to cut costs among its white-collar ranks.

<snip>

The comments mark the first time Delphi has addressed how its 16,000 white-collar employees in the United States could be affected by the company's bankruptcy filing.

While Delphi is seeking the biggest cuts from its 34,000 U.S. hourly workers, the idea that salaried employees could be impacted highlights the widening ripples of the filing.

<snip>

All told, the company employs 15,850 salaried employees in the United States, or 15,365 nonexecutives, 463 executives, 90 senior executives and 24 officers, according to court documents. It has another 4,000 salaried retirees.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Oct 14	8:30 AM		Core CPI		Sep		-	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%	-	
Oct 14	8:30 AM		CPI			Sep		-	1.0%	0.9%	0.5%	-	
Oct 14	8:30 AM		Retail Sales		Sep		-	0.7%	0.5%	-2.1%	-	
Oct 14	8:30 AM		Retail Sales ex-auto	Sep		-	1.3%	0.8%	1.0%	-	
Oct 14	9:15 AM		Capacity Utilization	Sep		-	79.5%	79.4%	79.8%	-	
Oct 14	9:15 AM		Industrial Production	Sep		-	-0.3%	-0.4%	0.1%	-	
Oct 14	9:45 AM		Mich Sentiment-Prel.	Oct		-	81.0	80.0	76.9	-	
Oct 14	10:00 AM	Business Inventories	Aug		-	0.0%	0.2%	-0.5%	-	
Oct 14	2:00 PM		Treasury Budget		Sep(TBA)	-	$36.0B	$37.0B	$24.6B	-

[UpInArms]

32. 8:30 reports in:

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. REAL AVERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS DOWN 2.7% Y-O-Y

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 6.5% YR-ON-YR IN SEPT.

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. CORE CPI UP 2% IN PAST YEAR VS. 2.1% AUG.

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. SEPT. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTO AND EX-GAS UP 0.6%

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. CPI UP 4.7% IN PAST YEAR, MOST IN 14 YEARS

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. SEPT. RETAIL SALES EX-GASOLINE DOWN 0.2%

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. SEPT. CORE CPI HELD BACK BY FALLING SHELTER COSTS

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. AUG. RETAIL SALES REVISED TO DOWN 1.9% VS 2.1% PREV

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. SEPT. ENERGY PRICES UP RECORD 12%

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. SEPT. RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 1.1% VS 0.9 EXPECTED

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. SEPT. CPI UP FASTEST PACE IN 25 YEARS

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. SEPT. RETAIL SALES UP 0.2% VS 0.5% EXPECTED

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. SEPT. CORE CPI UP 0.1% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

8:30am 10/14/05 U.S. SEPT. CPI UP 1.2% VS. 0.9% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

33. U.S. Sept. CPI surges 1.2%, most in 25 years

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38639.3542664583-846063228&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer inflation surged at the fastest pace in more than 25 years in September, rising a bigger-than-expected 1.2%, the Labor Department said Friday. A record 12% rise in energy prices fueled the historic jump in consumer price index, but core inflation - which excludes food and energy - increased just 0.1%. Consumer inflation has now risen 4.7% in the past 12 months, the highest since 1991. Core inflation is up 2% in the past year, down from 2.1% in August. The report should keep the Federal Reserve on track for more interest rates hikes at coming meetings. Economists were expecting the CPI to rise 0.9% and the core CPI to rise 0.2%.

[UpInArms]

34. U.S. Sept. retail sales up 0.2% (because of high gasoline prices)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38639.3542514931-846063214&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% in September as high gasoline prices supported sales, the Commerce Department estimated Friday. Car sales were weak in September, falling 2.8%. Excluding autos, sales increased 1.1%. Excluding gasoline, sales fell 0.2%. Ahead of the report, economists were expecting a 0.5% rise in retail sales, with a 0.9% increase in sales excluding motor vehicles. The government said it couldn't estimate the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on retail sales, saying there were both negative and positive effects.

[Career Prole]

38. The "invisible hand" may end up

an exhausted cramping claw trampled in the stampede today.

[UpInArms]

41. 9:15 reports - Ind. Prod. drop largest since Jan 1982

9:15am 10/14/05 SEPT. CAPACITY UTILIZATION FALLS TO 78.6 FROM 79.8 IN AUGUST

9:15am 10/14/05 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DROP LARGEST SINCE JANUARY 1982

9:15am 10/14/05 U.S. SEPT. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION FALLS 1.3%

[UpInArms]

45. Sept. industrial production off more than expected

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={A60DDE13-B998-4C59-979D-BD19FBFA3893}&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and a strike at an aircraft producer contributed to a 1.3% drop in industrial production in September, the Federal Reserve said Friday. It was the largest monthly drop since 1982. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting it to drop only 0.3%. Capacity utilization, meanwhile, fell to 78.6 in September from a revised 79.8 in August.

More "surprised" economists. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

48. Oct UMich Consumer Confidence falls into the dirt at 75.4

9:47am 10/14/05 U.S. OCT. UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 75.4 VS 76.9 IN SEPT.

9:47am 10/14/05 U.S. OCT. UMICH SENTIMENT BELOW CONSENSUS 80.4

[UpInArms]

54. Consumer sentiment sinks in Oct., UMich says

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BAE970710-081E-40B5-BD7E-70C4AAAC73F3%7D&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment eroded further in October, according to researchers at the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment index fell to 75.4 from 76.9 in September. The drop was unexpected. The consensus forecast of Wall Street economists was for sentiment to inch higher to 80.4. Sentiment fell sharply in September in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The current conditions index fell to 95.7 in October from 98.1 in September. The expectations index fell to 62.4 from 63.3 in the previous month.

[UpInArms]

59. US consumer mood falls to 13-year low in early Oct

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-14T143033Z_01_N14714052_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CONSUMERS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment fell unexpectedly in early October to its lowest level in 13 years, as high gasoline prices and the fallout from hurricane damage continued to take their toll, a report showed on Friday.

The University of Michigan's preliminary October index of consumer sentiment fell to 75.4, according to sources who saw the subscription-only report. That was below a final September reading of 76.9 and much below Wall Street's median forecast of an increase to 80.0.

"We were anticipating that we could see a little bit of an improvement in October because the rebuilding after the hurricanes appears to have started and energy prices have stabilized, but it appears that it will take a little longer for consumers to feel better about things," said Gary Thayer, chief economist at A.G. Edwards and Sons in St. Louis, Missouri.

The survey's expectations component eased to 62.4 from 63.3, also defying Wall Street forecasts for an increase to 67.0. The early October expectations reading was the lowest since March 1992.

The index of current conditions fell to 95.7 in early October from 98.1 in September. That also went against Wall Street forecasts for a slight rise to 99.5.

...more...

[AnneD]

79. they just think consumer confidence hit the dirt

wait until higher fuel cost and credit payments hit in Nov.....consumer confidence should be approaching 6 ft under....:eyes:
I look for a lean Christmas season of deep discounts just to get consumers to look at the merchandise.

[UpInArms]

51. 10:00 report - Business Inventories higher than projected

10:00am 10/14/05 U.S. AUG. RETAIL AUTO INVENTORIES RISE 1.7%

10:00am 10/14/05 U.S. AUG. RETAIL INVENTORIES UP 0.9%

10:00am 10/14/05 U.S. AUG. INVENTORY-SALES RATIO STEADY AT RECORD LOW 1.26

10:00am 10/14/05 U.S. AUG. INVENTORIES UP 0.4% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

52. U.S. Aug. inventories increase 0.4%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38639.4167089468-846078462&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. business inventories grew by 0.4% in August, matching the 0.4% rise in sales, the Commerce Department said Friday. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained at a record low 1.26 months. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting inventories to rise 0.2% after a revised 0.4% decline in July. Retail inventories rose 0.9% in August, the biggest increase since November. Retail auto inventories increased 1.7%, the biggest rise in a year.

[UpInArms]

103. Not Getting the Treasury Budget - but here's what they are releasing

2:30pm 10/14/05 TREASURY: U.S. FISCAL 2005 DEFICIT TOTALED $319 BILLION

2:30pm 10/14/05 U.S. DEFICIT FELL FROM $413 BILLION IN FISCAL 2004

2:30pm 10/14/05 U.S. 2005 DEFICIT IS 2.6% OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

U.S. deficit fell to $319 billion in fiscal 2005

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38639.6045309144-846119833&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)-- The federal deficit fell to $319 billion in fiscal 2005, down from $413 billion the previous year, the Treasury Department reported Friday. The fiscal year ended Sept. 30. The deficit equaled 2.6% of gross domestic product. The reduction was fueled by stronger-than-expected receipts. Treasury Secretary John Snow said the figures reflected a "growing economy that has swelled tax revenues over the last year." Critics have argued that the improved receipts may not be sustainable and note that the budget is expected to remain in deficit in coming years.

and for a bit of a refresher about deficits:

[AnneD]

123. Dang...

I just love those graphics. I swear...If the DEM's drug these graphs out everytime the GOP tried to portray their party as good for business and the economy...it stop that lame argument dead in it's track.

[UpInArms]

31. Samsung Fined $390m & Down 30% In Profits

(more info)

http://www.smarthouse.com.au/Entertainment/Industry/?article=/Entertainment/Industry/News/S4M5V9V9

The price fixing scam artificially raised prices for a technology essential to computers and electronics devices, the US Justice Department has said.The settlement is the second-largest criminal antitrust fine in history, the department said, and comes at the end of a three-year federal investigation of manufacturers who build "dynamic random access memory" chips, a market that was worth $7.7 billion in the United States last year. Samsung, based in Korea, is the world's largest maker of memory chips.

The Justice Department investigated the pricing of "dynamic random access memory" chips, left. Companies affected by the price-fixing included Dell Inc., Hewlett-Packard Co. and Apple Computer Inc. And consumers likely paid more for a long menu of electronics products, according to the Justice Department.

Thomas O. Barnett, acting assistant attorney general in charge of the Justice Department's Antitrust Division, called the case "one of the largest cartel prosecutions in the history of the antitrust division" because the arrangement, among four of the top makers of the memory chip, "raised the price on a technology used in almost every office and home in America."

<snip>

The particular technology, known as DRAM, is used in electronics equipment ranging from printers to cell phones to digital music players.

...more...

[Mnemosyne]

36. Natural gas futures have been down recently,

companies are gouging already. Does this make any sense? Shouldn't our costs be going down also?! Hope it's not a dumb question oz! Thanks!

[Nickster]

71. Should. But will it? That's a whole different question. The price would

have to stay steady at a lower level for approx a month to see any changes. Nat Gas has been spiking and has just started to come down a little bit over the last few days.

[Mnemosyne]

89. But it gives me a tiny bit of hope,

that costs this winter may end up not as horrible as anticipated. I am dreading the stories of death for corporate greed this winter.

[Nickster]

90. I wouldn't hold your breath. I'm thinking it's going to get much worse.

I hope it does get better though.

[Mnemosyne]

91. I'm not holding my breath, the greed is too

rampant. Can I keep my fingers, toes and eyes crossed though? lol
I seem to be doing that for a few things lately!

[UpInArms]

37. Social Security announces 4.1% boost in benefits, AP

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38639.3697865741-846067541&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Social Security Administration announced a 4.1% increase in its monthly payouts next year as it made its latest cost of living adjustment, or COLA, according to The Associated Press. This latest COLA is the biggest increase since a 5.4% gain in 1991, and the administration's first adjustment since a boost of 2.7% in January, the AP said.

[UpInArms]

39. Hewlett-Packard recalls 135,000 battery packs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38639.3722978819-846068172&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) , in conjunction with the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, is recalling 135,000 battery packs worldwide, as an internal short can cause the cells to overheat and melt, which could lead to burning and a fire. The battery backs are used in H-P and Compaq notebook computers that were sold between March 2004 and May 2005. H-P said it has received reports of 16 batteries overheating, but no injuries were reported. H-P's stock, a component of the Dow industrials, closed Thursday down 6 cents at $27.24.

[ozymandius]

44. pre-open blather

8:59AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +6.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Futures trade continues to suggest a higher start for stocks. Digestion of recently delivered economic data that shows consumer spending remains solid amid contained core inflation, alongside GE's reassuring Q3 earnings report and falling crude (-$0.91 $62.71), may help push traders back into buying mode this morning. Recent weakness has left the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq with respective 2.8%, 3.3%, and 4.0% losses for the first half of October, and a team of bullish items may give investors reason to snatch bargains.

8:43AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Total CPI rose 1.2% in Sept., higher than the +0.9% economists had forecasted and versus the 0.5% rise last month. The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, checked in at 0.1% for the fifth straight month (consensus +0.2%), and continues to show that core inflation remains well contained. Total retail sales, meanwhile, grew 0.2%, up from a 2.1% decline but below the +0.5% analysts had foreseen; ex-autos, however, retail sales rose 1.1% (consensus +0.8%) and indicates that consumer spending remains strong. The data is bullish for both the stock and bond markets, and futures trade now suggests a higher start for the cash market.

[UpInArms]

46. 9:34 LaLa Land's alternate universe

Dow 10,254.05 +37.46 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,054.78 +7.56 (+0.37%)
S&P 500 1,180.50 +3.66 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.439 -0.36 (-0.80%)

NYSE Volume 49,231,000
Nasdaq Volume 64,444,000

[UpInArms]

49. 9:50 EST reality intrudes into the pie in the sky daydream

Dow 10,230.10 +13.51 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,050.31 +3.09 (+0.15%)
S&P 500 1,180.46 +3.62 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.449 -0.26 (-0.58%)

NYSE Volume 175,888,000
Nasdaq Volume 164,504,000

9:45AM: Futures trade suggested that the cash market was set for its highest open in several weeks, and the market accordingly opened on the upside. Positive data across both the economic and corporate fronts have provided traders a cue to reinitiate buying efforts and seize opportunities left in the wake of October's broad-based declines. A bullish CPI read - the core rate checked in at 0.1% for the fifth consecutive month and was slightly below economists' +0.2% estimate - alongside strong retail sales (ex-auto +1.1% vs. +0.8% consensus) reflects strong underlying economic growth and modest, contained inflation trends that helps allay fears amid the inflation-flustered market. GE's solid Q3 earnings report and accompanying guidance helps underpin the expectations for strong third quarter earnings growth, and declining energy prices give traders some further relief today. As the market remains nervous over the prospect of three more rate hikes, though, whether early gains can be sustained remains the question.

[ozymandius]

50. Those peaks just do not last these days.

It boggles me a bit to imagine what numbers would be reflected in the pre-open sentiment were negative. Consider this: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. That was at 9:18. How does the blather conjure numbers that are so out of step with the opening averages?

[UpInArms]

53. 10:09 EST pulling back a bit more

Dow 10,225.07 +8.48 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,047.58 +0.36 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 1,178.20 +1.36 (+0.12%)
10-Yr Bond 4.453 -0.22 (-0.49%)

NYSE Volume 327,137,000
Nasdaq Volume 282,679,000

10:00AM: The indices pull back from their opening levels, but remain comfortably above the unchanged mark. Sector standing is split, with Financials (+0.6%) leading the way higher and accompanied by Industrials (+0.5%), Utilities (+0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%), and Technology (+0.1%) on positive ground. As for the laggards, the Materials sector extends its decline today, down 0.3% in the early going. The two sectors that have been recent targets of profit-taking, Energy and Utilities, have somewhat recovered this morning. Energy is off with the pullback in energy prices, but just a modest 0.2%. Utilities, meanwhile, has risen 0.5% and works to add to its 9.4% year-to-date gain that is the market's second best. Separately, the University of Michigan's preliminary read on Oct. consumer sentiment came in at 75.4 (consensus 80.0), while business inventories rose 0.4% in Aug. (consensus 0.2%). Focus, however, rests upon the CPI and retail sales data.NYSE Adv/Dec 1928/780, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1470/929

[UpInArms]

55. 10:18 EST don't hold stock over the weekend - rerun?

Dow 10,205.30 -11.29 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,044.19 -3.03 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,176.50 -0.34 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.455 -0.20 (-0.45%)

NYSE Volume 384,595,000
Nasdaq Volume 323,036,000

[UpInArms]

64. 10:53 EST see-sawing

Dow 10,225.15 +8.56 (+0.08%)
Nasdaq 2,052.09 +4.87 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,178.44 +1.60 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.483 +0.08 (+0.18%)

NYSE Volume 609,252,000
Nasdaq Volume 486,177,000

10:30AM: Ceding their initial gains, each of the market's major averages have slid into the red. Technology's (-0.2) decline, for which semicoductors are largely responsible, has been a strong downward tug, and Energy's (-1.4%) further fall also contributes to the standing. With respect to semiconductors, an analyst downgrade of Texas Instruments (TXN 30.10 -0.79) shares - to Peer Perform from Outperform at Bear Stearns - has resulted in the stock's 2.6% plunge. While dragging the Tech sector, and overall market, lower, TXN has also catalyzed the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index's (SOXX) 0.8% decline...

The lack of leadership that has thus far characterized the fourth quarter lingers today; of the sectors hanging on to gains, Financials' modest 0.4% rise leads. SOX -0.8, NYSE Adv/Dec 1555/1300, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1312/1234

[UpInArms]

56. Kraft "realignment" - job cuts - 600 salaried positions and more

10:25am 10/14/05 KRAFT HAS CUT 5,200 OF 6,000 EXPECTED POSITIONS TO DATE

10:25am 10/14/05 KRAFT:CUTS, COSTS PART OF PREVIOUSLY ANNOUNCED RESTRUCTURING

10:23am 10/14/05 KRAFT TO RELOCATE TARRYTOWN TEAMS TO OTHER U.S. FACILITIES

10:24am 10/14/05 KRAFT TO SUBSEQUENTLY CUT 600 SALARIED POSITIONS

10:23am 10/14/05 KRAFT TO EXIT LEASED FACILITY IN TARRYTOWN, N.Y. EARLY '06

10:21am 10/14/05 KRAFT TO REALIGN ITS CANADIAN DIVISION, EFFECTIVE JAN. 2006

10:22am 10/14/05 KRAFT REDESIGNS ITS N. AMERICAN GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN FUNCTION

edited to add blurb and link

Kraft details N.A. ops streamlining, cuts in restructuring

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38639.4422201968-846084145&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT) on Friday said that as part of the global restucturing announced in January of 2004, it will eliminate the divisions within its five North American consumer sectors, with product category leaders reporting directly to sector heads. The food brands company will also realign its Canadian division as of January 2006, and its global corporate functions are being streamlined to support changes to its North American global supply chain function. As a result, Kraft is exiting its leased office facility in Tarrytown, N.Y. and locating its teams to other U.S. facilities. Overall, the changes will result in the elimination of 600 salaried positions, Kraft said. To date, the company said that 5,200 of of the expected 6,000 positions to be cut have been identified.

[JNelson6563]

57. Seems we have an epic battle going on

10:29 Seems inflation ain't as great for the markets as first thought.

Dow 10,212.98 -3.61 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,044.60 -2.62 (-0.13%)
S&P 500 1,176.37 -0.47 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.457% -0.02

I hear muffled sobs on the set at CNBC. :cry:

Julie

[UpInArms]

66. Spinning: Stocks claw back early gains Consumers less upbeat; U.S.

Stocks claw back early gains
Consumers less upbeat; U.S. inflation report pleases

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B969B4EB1%2D469B%2D45BF%2DBC01%2D6D30907FB428%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks edged higher Friday, buoyed by consumer-price data showing inflation, excluding energy prices, under control, but a weaker-than-expected consumer-sentiment report was keeping a lid on gains.

Solid quarterly results from General Electric and a continued slide in crude-oil prices offered further support to bullish sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU: news, chart, profile) was lately up by 14 points at 10,230, off an early high of 10,262.

The Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPQ: news, chart, profile) rose 3 points to 2,050, while the S&P 500 Index ($SPX: news, chart, profile) climbed 3 points to 1,178.

On the broader market for equities, advancers had a 15 to 14 advantage over decliners on the New York Stock Exchange, while winners and losers were evenly balanced on the Nasdaq.

<snip>

"The Fed has made it clear they are going to continue raising interest rates, energy prices remain high and there is a lot of evidence to suggest they are beginning to impact the consumer. We're also entering the winter season and there has been a lot noise that heating bills are going to be up 30% at least over the last year."

...more...

:crazy:

[Zynx]

68. The markets' activity seems to be indicating recession.

A healthy stock market does not have this much difficulty rising for this long.

[UpInArms]

58. SMW Query: Do you think that the US will start building debtors' prisons?

With the onset of the new and improved "bankruptcy" bill, higher interest rates on loans, escalating energy costs and with the loss of the manufacturing job base and now the escalating loss of white-collar salaried positions, will the judicial branch start to intervene and put people in prison that are unable to pay their bills?

[54anickel]

70. Heh-heh - just have a minute to share this

http://www.counterpunch.org/sandronsky05032005.html

Calling Mr. Dickens
Towards Debtors' Prisons?

[UpInArms]

78. thanks 54anickel!

from your link:

Prisons for debtors won't just increase the U.S. inmate population of 2.1 million mostly nonwhite folks held in jails and prisons about a year ago. Incarcerating bankrupt working people, half of whom have gone bust from being unable to pay for corporate health care according to a recent academic study, will lower the jobless rate. What could be better than that, I ask you? Here's the thing: these debtors will be uncounted in the Labor Department jobs reports, thus invisible as prisoners/surplus workers are in official-speak. Wall Street will cheer as more of the unemployed are pencil-whipped from sight on government spreadsheets.

Cut to politicians with sturdy shovels and simian grins as they break ground on new prisons for debtors. Later, they boast before media cameras about how this "economic development" will make us safe, add jobs and fuel growth. Such a penal building boom could go on for quite some time, given the record debt levels of U.S. households, Main Street's weakness and Wall Street's clout.

[AnneD]

85. My concerns have always been with education

The day I found out that more was spent on prisoners than for children's education....it was a no brainer. I believe that our children should (upon reaching the age of 4) be sentenced to 16 years of forced education minimum and up to 8 additional years should it be needed. They would be paroled upon matriculating.I would be happy to work for the Houston Independent school prison system. No longer would we have the discipline problem (we would have more options-forced homework, solitary study, chain gang lessons, etc). We would improve our funding and we could immediately improve our PE facilities, add to the prison library, provide uniforms and health care for all prison students.

[loudsue]

122. When prisons are PRIVATIZED, every prisoner adds to the bottom line

of the prison corporation. These people have HUGE lobbies in Washington. Washington is totally under the power of the republicans, and has been, for all practical purposes, since 1994. The congressional majority effectively neutered the only Democratic president the nation had enjoyed since the Reagan era...a Democratic president that many democrats called "the best republican president the Democrats have ever had".

For the VERY brief 2-year period in 2001-2002, after Jeffords became an "Independent", was the only 2-year period when JUST ONE HOUSE of congress had essentially a one-vote majority. But with a republican president and republican house and republican supreme court, that brief 2-year period still didn't see many victories for the democrats. Add that to the fact that the republicans officially infiltrated the democratic party, with the advent of the DLC, and you have basically had a one-party system since 1989.

Republicans have sold ALL OF AMERICA down the river, except for the wealthiest among us -- the wealthiest, who will not be making "widgets" in prison for pennies on the dollar any time soon.

Privatized prisons with huge lobbies contribute to the culture of corruption the republicans feel so at home with.


:kick:

[Theres-a]

95. They will find a way to do just that

But it will be disguised as something else,with an Orwellian name.PS I lurk in this thread everyday,and you all do a wonderful job!!!!Thanks

[UpInArms]

63. Reinsurers may face $27 bln storm claims - Fitch

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-14T144148Z_01_L14695465_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REINSURERS-FITCH.XML

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Reinsurers may have to pay up to $27 billion for hurricanes Katrina and Rita, but are in a strong position to absorb this enormous bill, credit ratings agency Fitch said on Friday.

The insurance industry is likely to be hit with claims of between $30 billion and $50 billion from Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the United States' Gulf Coast and flooded New Orleans, and $3 billion to $6 billion from Rita, said Chris Waterman, a senior director in Fitch's insurance division.

Reinsurers, who take risks that are too big or volatile for insurers to keep on their balance sheets, are likely to pick up a substantial proportion of that overall bill.

"Fitch believes that between $15 billion and $27 billion of that amount will be passed on to the reinsurance sector," Waterman told an industry conference in London.

"That represents approximately 4-8 percent of the reinsurance industry's total shareholders' equity," he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

72. 11:48 EST markets suffer from amnesia

Dow 10,243.96 +27.37 (+0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,054.36 +7.14 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,180.77 +3.93 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.473 -0.02 (-0.04%)

NYSE Volume 887,656,000
Nasdaq Volume 661,771,000

I do believe they forgot that the Fed raised rates last time so that it could "look cool" :eyes:

11:30AM: While edging higher, the indices remain caught within the morning's range. A 0.9% jump in the Financial sector carries the broader market, and each sector - besides Energy (-0.8%) - now sports a gain. Regional banks are an especial pocket of strength today, up 1.7% and working to pare some of its 10.0 year-to-date loss. Interest rate-sensitive areas have benefited from the better-than-expected core CPI read, a benign 0.1% for the fifth consecutive month, which shows traders that inflation remains contained. The Utilities sector has similarly benefited, up 0.5% and ending its downward trend today.NYSE Adv/Dec 1692/1327, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1542/1151

11:00AM: Back on positive turf, the indices have moved north alongside Tech's (+0.2%) rise from the red. Particular strength in Corning (GLW 18.396 +0.69), Motorola (MOT 20.24 +0.33), Adobe (ADBE 29.23 +0.93), and Electronic Arts (ERTS 54.22 +1.82) have helped the sector regain its footing, and a slight ease in semiconductor's decline has also contributed. Crude's ($61.90/bbl) 1.8% slip, though, keeps Energy under pressure, and the sector's 1.4% slide effectively caps the market's upward efforts.NYSE Adv/Dec 1492/1456, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1466/1179

[The_Casual_Observer]

75. Up 32pts! The bulls are running, time to buy.

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

76. don't you mean the lemmings?

[UpInArms]

82. 12:11 EST a running of the bulls-hit

Dow 10,265.09 +48.50 (+0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,058.99 +11.77 (+0.57%)
S&P 500 1,184.52 +7.68 (+0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 4.483 +0.08 (+0.18%)

NYSE Volume 993,837,000
Nasdaq Volume 727,430,000

12:00PM: Bullish news on both the economic and corporate fronts helped traders launch the indices higher today, and gains have been sustained heading into the lunch hour. After inflation-wary investors saw that the core inflation rate remained at a benign +0.1% for the fifth consecutive month and simultaneously received data that showed retail sales, ex-auto, rose 1.1%, buying action reignited. While the aforementioned data reflected strong underlying economic growth coupled with contained core inflation, General Electric's (GE 34.28 +0.76) reassuring earnings report helped validate expectations for 15% earnings growth over the third quarter. While a lack of sector leadership has stunted the market's advances thus far in Q4, the Financials sector has risen to a 0.7% gain that currently leads the broader market. With interest-rate sensitive areas receiving a boost from the CPI data that helps allay inflation fears, banks have emerged as an especial area of strength. To that end, the rate-sensitive Utilities sector has recovered today, up 0.6% as traders halt the aggressive profit-taking efforts that has left the sector as one of the market's worst the past few sessions. Supported by GE's earnings news, the Industrials sector (+0.6%) has been another one of the session's stand-outs; for its part, the world's largest conglomerate delivered earnings that matched analysts' expectations and that reflected 15% growth - accompanied by upped FY05 guidance. Speaking of earnings reports, United Healthcare (UNH 56.22 +2.02) surpassed estimates this morning, and similarly raised its full-year forecast. As a result, HMOs have risen to the top of the S&P, contributing to Healthcare's solid standing and 0.6% gain. Boston Scientific (BSX 24.21 -0.09), on the other hand, disappointed Wall Street with its Q3 report, but the stock has proved resilient and is trading in relatively flat fashion. Energy, meanwhile, spends yet another session in the red and helps limit the market's advance with its 1.0% decline that crude's 2.5% pullback has helped fuel. Crude's action, coupled with positive retail sales data, has helped the Consumer Discretionary sector, meanwhile, chalk a 0.6% gain. Separately, additional economic data included industrial production, which fell 1.3% vs. the -0.4% consensus, capacity utilization, which checked in at 78.6% (consensus 79.4%), and the University of Michigan's preliminary read on consumer sentiment (75.4 vs. 80.0 consensus). Regarding industrial production's slide, the temporary effects of Katrina and a strike at Boeing (BA 67.70 +1.21) were largely responsible; excluding them, the figure would have come in at +0.9%. Ultimately, though, traders' attention has rested upon the CPI and retail sales reports.NYSE Adv/Dec 1888/1188, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1649/1112

[ozymandius]

84. markets celebrate dirt-level consumer sentiment

12:22
Dow 10,265.39 +48.80 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,059.71 +12.49 (+0.61%)
S&P 500 1,184.25 +7.41 (+0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 44.83 +0.08 (+0.18%)
NYSE Volume 1,047,174,000
Nasdaq Volume 763,944,000

[UpInArms]

86. GTSI to cut 10% of workforce in realignment

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38639.5093633449-846099227&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (Marketwatch) -- GTSI Corp. (GTSI) said Friday that it will cut 10% of its workforce in a realignment. The Chantilly, Va.-based information technology consulting firm also said preliminary September bookings were $260 million, compared to $220 million a year ago.

and what is GTSI?

http://www.marketwatch.com/tools/quotes/profile.asp?sid=205427&symb=GTSI&siteid=mktw

Gtsi Corp Website Annual Report
3901 Stonecroft Boulevard Phone: [phone]
Chantilly VIRGINIA 20151-1010

Fax: [phone]


GTSI Corp. The Group's principal activities are distribution of Unix workstation hardware, software and networking products to the Federal government market. The Group also performs network integration services like configuring, installing and maintaining microcomputers in local area networks. The Group offers its customers a convenient and cost-effective centralized source for microcomputer and workstation products through its competitive pricing, broad product selection and procurement expertise. The major trademark of the Group is "GTSI". The products of the Group consist of microcomputer and workstation hardware, software and peripherals. The Group's customers are primarily federal, state and local government agencies and prime contractors to the Government, including systems integrators. The Group has operations in United States.

and then the question becomes, if the bookings increased $40 million from a year ago, why lay off?

Well, here's their past few months
:

12:09pm 10/14/05 GTSI: Sept. preliminary bookings $260M vs $220M last year - MarketWatch.com
7:33am 09/19/05 GTSI Aug sales $78.1M; daily sales average down 12% - MarketWatch.com
7:31am 08/12/05 GTSI Corp. said July sales $45.5M vs. $89.5M - MarketWatch.com
7:32am 08/12/05 GTSI Corp. July bookings $72.5M vs. $107.5M - MarketWatch.com
7:35am 08/09/05 GTSI Corp. Q2 rev. $160.7M vs. $239M - MarketWatch.com

[ozymandius]

92. Numbers are doing their shrinking violet routine.

1:06
Dow 10,231.55 +14.96 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,052.73 +5.51 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,179.98 +3.14 (+0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 45.03 +0.28 (+0.63%)
NYSE Volume 1,217,194,000
Nasdaq Volume 877,714,000

[ozymandius]

94. 2:06 numbers and blather

Dow 10,241.23 +24.64 (+0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,053.38 +6.16 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,181.20 +4.36 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 45.07 +0.32 (+0.72%)
NYSE Volume 1,446,675,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,041,310,000

1:30PM: Infected with inflation concerns that today's total read on Sept. CPI - which includes the surging oil prices - perhaps fanned, the Treasury market has fallen for the fourth consecutive day. While the core rate is, arguably, a more accurate indicator, the bond market has shrugged off the benign 0.1% rise and instead concentrates on the fact that the total read reflected the highest consumer price jump in 25 years. With bond traders starting to buy into the Fed's inflation talk, and with exacerbated concerns over the extent of the Fed's tightening action, the benchmark 10-year (-11/32) has risen to a 4.51% yield today. Sentiment within the bond market has weighed upon equities, and traders' focus upon bonds' yields and the flattening yield curve helps to curb buying interest.NYSE Adv/Dec 1933/1242, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1721/1135

[UpInArms]

97. Dramatic slump seen in vehicle sales

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-14T142940Z_01_SPI450334_RTRUKOC_0_US-AUTOS-SALES.xml

DETROIT (Reuters) - U.S. sales of new cars and trucks at the retail level appear to have fallen off the cliff in October, led by steep declines at General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., J.D. Power and Associates said on Friday.

A report from the industry tracking firm's closely watched Power Information Network cited a lack of high-impact incentives from major automakers, high U.S. gasoline prices, low inventory levels and an apparent pullback by consumers after exceptionally strong sales over the summer for the dramatic slowdown.

Retail new-vehicle sales were down 33 percent across the industry in the first nine days of October compared with the same period a year ago, the Power Information Network said.

It said results were down at nine major automakers, but GM led the pack with a 57 percent decline followed by Ford, which saw its retail sales drop 45 percent over the first nine days of the month.

The Chrysler arm of Germany's DaimlerChrysler posted a 32 percent drop over the same nine-day period compared with year-ago results.

...more...

[ozymandius]

100. I am reminded of your post #27.

Automobile sales decline by a third in the nine months before the crash.

Which brings to mind: when did we last see a durable goods report? Did I miss it?

[UpInArms]

105. last durable goods report was Sept 28

Sep 28	8:30 AM	Durable Orders	Aug	3.3%	1.0%	0.7%	-5.3%	-4.9%

next one is due October 27 -

I would find my posting on the last report, but alas and alack, the search function is temporarily unavailable :(

[hatrack]

102. Huh. Imagine that.

For some strange reason, people aren't being lured to the showrooms by the enticing prospects of rebates and employee pricing on the Ford Mastodons and GM Warwagons.

I wonder why . . .

[ozymandius]

106. Maybe they remind them of meat wagons.

Mea culpa. Sorry about the mental image.

[54anickel]

101. Two Shoes & Rogue Event (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie101005.html

Pictures are worth a thousand words, that is 1000 words for each picture. Well, here are several thousand words condensed for easy view. Let's put the right side of the brain to work in order to track the unfolding crisis to the US Economy. That distress is being reported, but fully denied, even as clowns put forth the nonsensical notion that the reconstruction effort from a "one-two whack" is beneficial to the economy. No, if the US Federal Federal Reserve decides to monetize the higher energy cost shock, AN UNCERTAIN EVENT SINCE RATE HIKES CONTINUE, the stress will not only widen, it will reverberate. Higher interest rates will enhance the threat of economic decline and recession. The recent warnings which go largely unheeded are the Philly Fed cratered figures, and the ISM non-mfg decline. Ahead, derivative events loom. At the same time, the quality of economic forecasts is truly horrible. Energy prices trend up from shortage and disruption. They will soften from economic slowdown, but Asian economic growth is a juggernaut. They are dependent upon US markets, but they also have regional strength and growing parochial interest which serve them well.

My expectation is that Q4 might go on record as the first economic pullback, with negative TRUE REAL GDP growth, registered and reported as slight GDP positive growth. The cost shock will NOT be properly adjusted out, and much of purported economic growth will simply be inadequately improperly fallacious adjustments to price inflation on the purchases & sales of goods & services. The GDP Price Deflator (used to pull out inflation from nominal GDP numbers) is more fraudulent than the broken joke of the Consumer Price Inflation index, aka the Constant Price Index. THE GDP DEFLATOR IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST FRAUDULENT STATISTICAL SERIES IN EXISTENCE. Q4 growth will simply be price inflation falsely labeled as growth, in keeping with the trend in the United States of institutional lying. The October Hat Trick Letter issue goes into more detail than this pictorial story as it unfolds in tragic form.

The BANK SECTOR, despite loyal fealty directed to it by the USFed, lies directly ahead in the crosshairs. Issues pertain to profit margins, defaults, extensions to payment schedules, lost yield curve differentials, the list goes on. Setasides to loss reserves from non-performing loans will be heard before long. Credit card providers have seen fit to double minimum monthly payments, just in time to pressure already stressed households. The "BKX" bank sector index looks ready to seriously challenge the 95 level.



Look out below!!!!!! FANNY MAE looks like a cratered internet stock, only it is plumbing the depths in a more graddddddual decline. And this tainted gem is the cornerstone of the entire US housing market finance industry, the nucleus of the great mortgage finance centrifuge. As my childhood friends would say, noting the Rosh Hashanah holiday, "oy veh." My take is that as Fanny and her fat haunches go, so goes the housing industry. If her bloated behind is exposed as bankrupt with absent capital core, Asians and Europeans will cease and desist from their bond support. Esoteric accounting methods from exotic mortgage contracts and their derivatives make for very murky water. Fraud charges lie in the future, in my opinion.

LOOK AT THIS CHART!!!! :wow:



more...

[ozymandius]

104. trading confined to a very narrow margin

2:49
Dow 10,249.47 +32.88 (+0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,057.26 +10.04 (+0.49%)
S&P 500 1,183.26 +6.42 (+0.55%)
10-Yr Bond 44.93 +0.18 (+0.40%)
NYSE Volume 1,624,839,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,154,943,000


2:30PM: Range-bound trading persists, as little has happened over the past half hour...

After declining sharply upon worries over the U.S. economy, European indices recovered today after digesting the latest CPI data alongside the most current retail sales report. With the fifth straight +0.1% core inflation rate evidencing contained inflation, and with the 1.1% (ex-auto) rise in retail sales revealing strong underlying economic growth in the U.S., European traders fears were somewhat allayed. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600, which covers the major exchanges of 17 European countries, increased 0.2%. Britain's FTSE 100 similarly closed 0.2% higher, and the French CAC and German DAX posted respective 0.3% and 0.5% rises upon the close of their most recent sessions.NYSE Adv/Dec 2015/1188, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1785/1097

[UpInArms]

110. looks like they're feeding the kitty

for those that just can't "hold" their stocks over the weekend - spiking straight up now

Dow 10,263.89 +47.30 (+0.46%)
Nasdaq 2,060.86 +13.64 (+0.67%)
S&P 500 1,185.01 +8.17 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.493 +0.18 (+0.40%)

NYSE Volume 1,656,013,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,177,697,000

[Algorem]

109. Creditors' suit accuses LTV former execs of self-dealing

http://www.cleveland.com/business/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/business/1129282594204760.xml&coll=2

Friday, October 14, 2005
Alison Grant
Plain Dealer Reporter

Major creditors of LTV Corp. have sued former Chief Executive William Bricker and other officers and directors of the defunct steel maker for mismanagement that they say drove down the value of its bankruptcy estate by at least $100 million.

The creditors -- among them, Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. and the United Steelworkers of America -- say Bricker and others deliberately misrepresented LTV's true financial condition as the company spun out of control in 2001, a deception that allowed them to preserve their own pay and perks.

The lawsuit also contends that LTV siphoned off tens of millions of dollars to Copperweld Corp., a subsidiary that both Bricker and former Chief Operating Officer John Turner were interested in buying.

A bankruptcy judge ruled in August that the creditors, called the Official Committee of Administrative Claimants, can pursue claims of gross negligence but not intentional negligence...

[UpInArms]

112. I think I found Tom DeLay's bank account

Deutsche Bank faulted on money laundering

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BBA7841C4%2D8D5D%2D4A84%2DB1B6%2D0789432A964F%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Banking regulators on Friday ordered Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas to take several steps to beef up its anti-money laundering practices.

Under an agreement with the Federal Reserve and the New York State Banking Department, Deutsche Bank will submit a report to the regulators about its revised anti-money laundering policies. The report is due in two months, according to the agreement.

The Fed doesn't elaborate on alleged legal missteps by the bank.

Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas conducts a high volume of U.S. dollar funds transfer clearing for other banks.

Within three months, the bank's board of directors will submit a report about management's anti-money laundering responsibilities to regulators.

...more...

[54anickel]

114. Bond tied to hedge fund launched

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/d738521a-3c0c-11da-94fb-00000e2511c8.html

Barclays Capital and Signet Capital Management have launched a bond linked to the performance of a portfolio of hedge funds, capitalising on escalating interest in such non-traditional investments.


Unusually for a hedge fund-related investment, the bond will pay regular income, and investors’ principals will be largely protected. Barclays Capital also will provide daily liquidity, helping them avoid the three-month wait often associated with exiting hedge funds.

“We have already had significant interest and hope to see the deal oversubscribed,” said David Stuff, head of UK investor solutions at Barclays Capital.

The sterling-denominated bond is aimed at private wealth managers and discretionary fund managers in the UK and is linked to the performance of a fund of 30 hedge funds managed by Signet, an investment adviser and fund of funds manager.

Many hedge funds lock up investors’ cash for months or years before paying out gains. With the new bond, however, half of any gains will be paid out as a variable coupon. “We are making it more palatable for investors with a need for income,” said Alex Robinson, head of private asset distribution at Barclays Capital.

more...

[UpInArms]

115. I do believe I am going to freakin'

lose my mind.

Their "vehicles" are unsound.

They are only built to crash.

These are yet more idiots.

:banghead:

[54anickel]

120. Just think of the tangled web that will probably never get sorted out

when there are enough of these "hedge fund bonds" invested in the next Refco.

Personally, I wouldn't touch this sucker with a ten foot pole.

[54anickel]

119. Dr. Murenbeeld's gold price forecast for the coming year

http://www.kitco.com/weekly/paulvaneeden/oct142005.html

I got to hear Dr. Martin Murenbeeld at the Denver Gold Forum earlier this month, and, as I said last year after attending his talk, he is hands down the best gold analyst I have ever come across.

snip>

Dr. Murenbeeld always includes three possible prices with the minimum probability assigned to any price being 10%. For the next year, an average gold price of $381 an ounce was assigned a 10% probability, $470 an ounce was assigned a 47% probability, and an average gold price of $565 an ounce was assigned a 43% probability.

Assigning such a low probability to a decline in the gold price and such a high probability to a substantially higher gold price is a very bullish forecast indeed. Keep in mind that this forecast is for the average gold price over the next twelve months, so by this time next year the gold price could be substantially higher than $502 an ounce and Dr. Murenbeeld’s prediction could still be spot on.

Why is he so bullish?

Devaluation of the US dollar
Trade data suggests that the US dollar is overvalued and uncompetitive. It shows that international trade is out of equilibrium -- the result of a distortion of the dollar’s exchange rate. Since markets always try to reach equilibrium, there is pressure on the dollar to decline.

snip>
The US budget deteriorated from a surplus of $255 billion in 2000 to a deficit of $430 billion last year. Larger tax receipts subsequently reduced the deficit, but Katrina et al. will most likely absorb any increase in Treasury revenues and push the deficit further into negative territory.

But that is only part of the story. Total US debt (government debt, corporate debt and household debt) is now in excess of 200% of GDP. Last time the US had this much debt relative to GDP was during the Great Depression and the result was a sharp contraction of debt.

more...

[UpInArms]

121. 3:28 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,269.27 +52.68 (+0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,063.08 +15.86 (+0.77%)
S&P 500 1,185.60 +8.76 (+0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.491 +0.16 (+0.36%)

NYSE Volume 1,841,505,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,310,851,000

3:00PM: A lack of a fresh catalyst to spur further buying interest, or to trigger selling action, has left the indices running in place and sector-standing static. With the deluge of Q3 earnings reports on the horizon, traders may have reason to postpone further buying. Here's a look at next weeks earnings calendar. Companies reporting Mon., Oct. 17th include GM,C, SVU, IBM, NVLS, RMBS, OMM, and WERN. On Tues., Oct 18th, look for reports from MMM, ADTN, FITB, JNJ, MER, BTU, SWY, UTX, GILD, INTC, SYK, and YHOO. Wed., Oct 19th reporters include ABT, MO, EK, HON, PJC, AMGN, EBAY, MOGN, NFLX, OI, and WSTL. Thurs., Oct 20th, KO, ED, DJ, ENDP, F, IR, JBLU, MATR, PFE, TLGD, WHR, BRCM, CAMD, GOOG, FSL, and XLNX are amongst the announcers. The week will close with CAT, CCUR, MYG, RSH, WYE, WY, and XRX delivering earnings results.NYSE Adv/Dec 2076/1154, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1850/1069

[ozymandius]

124. 3:48 and lookit 'em go

Dow 10,278.38 +61.79 (+0.60%)
Nasdaq 2,064.44 +17.22 (+0.84%)
S&P 500 1,186.51 +9.67 (+0.82%)
10-Yr Bond 44.91 +0.16 (+0.36%)
NYSE Volume 1,973,465,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,402,819,000

3:35PM: Approaching the closing bell, each of the major averages are near their best levels of the day. A glance at the market's internals reveals the significantly improved sentiment that may close the indices at their best points in over a week. In a reversal of fortune, advancers maintain a 2-to-1 lead over decliners on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. On Monday, the market's breadth was just the opposite. Before the session ended, declining issues outpaced advancers 2-to-1 on both exchanges. NYSE Adv/Dec 2124/1133, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1911/1017

[ozymandius]

126. closing numbers with blather

Dow 10,287.34 +70.75 (+0.69%)
Nasdaq 2,064.83 +17.61 (+0.86%)
S&P 500 1,186.57 +9.73 (+0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 44.91 +0.16 (+0.36%)
NYSE Volume 2,187,578,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,555,004,000

Close Dow +70.75 at 10287.34, S&P +9.73 at 1186.57, Nasdaq +17.61 at 2064.83: The recovery that was attempted yesterday materialized today - sending the indices upwards, enabling all ten economic sectors to post gains, and helping to erase some of the broad-based declines that have plagued October. Perhaps most significantly, the market managed to not only sustain early gains, but finished at their best levels of the day. Traders found reason to reinitiate buying efforts after bullish news on both the economic and corporate fronts helped dispel some of the pessimism that has prevented leadership and characterized the quarter. The core inflation rate, which checked in at a benign +0.1% for the fifth consecutive time, provided relief to inflation-wary investors who, at the same time, received evidence that underlying economic growth remains solid. Retail sales, excluding autos, rose 1.1%, higher than the 0.8% economists had forecasted. At the same time, the reassuring Q3 earnings report General Electric (GE 34.39 +0.37) delivered helped validate expectations for 15% earnings growth over the third quarter and reinforced the emerging bullishness amid what is an arguably oversold market. While a lack of sector leadership has stunted the market's advances thus far in Q4, the Financials sector stepped up today, offering a 1.0% gain that effectively led the overall market. After the core CPI data helped assuage inflation concerns, interest-rate sensitive areas received a boost. Banks emerged as a pocket of strength, and joined thrifts and mortgage issues in spearheading the sector's advance. Along that line, the rate-sensitive Utilities sector staged a recovery today, also rising 1.0% as traders froze the profit-locking attempts that have heavily weighed upon the sector in recent sessions. Enjoying the effect of GE's earnings news, the Industrials sector rose 1.0% as well. The world's largest conglomerate, for its part, delivered earnings that matched analysts' estimates and which reflected 15% growth, alongside its increased FY05 profit outlook. Further to the day's earnings docket, United Healthcare (UNH 56.45 +2.25) beat the street this morning and similarly raised its full-year forecast. HMOs subsequently soared, adding to their 30.7% gain that leads the sector. While Boston Scientific (BSX 23.93 -0.37), meanwhile, fell short of expectations, the stock did little to affect the overall sector, which turned in a 0.5% gain. Energy (+1.3%), while sitting last all session, turned around late in the day and rose to the driver's seat despite crude's ($62.63/bbl) extended pullback. Off 0.7% today, the commodity closed, however, well off of its lows of the day. Nonetheless, its decline paired with positive retail sales data to push the Consumer Discretionary sector to a 1.0% rise. While no sector closed below the flat line today, Tech (+0.4%) finished in last place, pressured by weakness in semiconductors that an analyst downgrade of Texas Instruments (TXN 29.24 -0.95) shares had fostered. With respect to the other economic reports delivered today, industrial production fell 1.3% vs. the -0.4% consensus, while capacity utilization checked in at 78.6% (consensus 79.4%). It's important to note, however, that the former figure reflects the temporary effects of Katrina and a strike at Boeing; excluding them, production would have risen 0.9%. Also, the University of Michigan's preliminary read on consumer sentiment came in at 75.4 vs. the 80.0 consensus, but the retail sales data essentially overshadowed the report. Separately, today's total read on Sept. CPI - which includes the surging oil prices - fanned inflation fears within the Treasury market. While the core rate is, arguably, a more accurate indicator, the bond marketfocused upon the fact that the total read reflected the highest consumer price jump in 25 years. With bond traders starting to buy into the Fed's inflation talk, and with exacerbated concerns over the extent of the Fed's tightening action, the benchmark 10-year (-05/32) has closed at a 4.48% yield today.DJTA +1.37, DJUA +1.27, DOT +1.49, Nasdaq 100 +0.68, Russell 2000 +1.58, SOX -0.82, S&P Midcap 400 +1.34, XOI +0.64, NYSE Adv/Dec 2229/1064, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2073/924

[54anickel]

127. Ahhh, a good weekend to hold stocks after all! ...n/t

[ozymandius]

128. How about that!

And with the Dow going up 70 points - they're not too heavy after all.

[Roland99]

129. Consumer Confidence Index tanking; Inflation at 5.6%. BUY! BUY! BUY!