U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Falls; Michigan Index Slips to 75.4

[papau]

With the preliminary October current conditions index (feel wealthy? - time to buy big ticket items?) dropping to 95.7 from 98.1 in September, we have a new "lowest reading since 03", and with expectations index (1 to 5 years outlook) dropping from 63.3 to 62.4, we have the lowest expectations since 92, the only rise being the current expectation that this years 3.1% inflation to Aug 05 will be followed by 12 months of 4.3% inflation.


http://www.bloomberg.com/index.html
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Falls; Michigan Index Slips to 75.4


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=aTFmAJUQtDnA&refer=home

U.S. Univ. of Michigan Sentiment Index Fell to 75.4

By Victor Epstein

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly fell for a third month to the lowest in more than 13 years as concerns persisted about high energy prices and hurricane-related economic disruption.

The University of Michigan's preliminary index of consumer sentiment decreased to 75.4 from 76.9 in September. Televised scenes of widespread destruction from Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and the jump in energy prices that followed reduced consumer confidence last month to the lowest since a reading of 73.3 in October 1992.
<snip>

The median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of 51 economists was for a rise in the Michigan sentiment gauge to 80 in October, with estimates ranging from 75 to 84. The preliminary sentiment index is based on a phone survey of about 300 households. The final report for the month, due Oct. 28, will reflect a total of about 500 responses.

The monthly index has averaged 88.2 since the Ann Arbor, Michigan-based university began compiling it in 1978 and was averaging 92.3 this year before the storms hit.

The one-month decline of 12.2 points from August to September was the largest in 25 years. <snip>

[Pirate Smile]

1. Why would this be "unexpected"?

It sure isn't to me.

[whatever4]

4. Exactly what I was going to say . Unexpected my ass nm

[MrBenchley]

5. Snarky answer is that economists are dumb bunnies....

The real answer is that the measurement is largely predicted off what last month's expectations index said and what some industry indicators say, and that actual confidence is lower than those benchmarks would have indicated.

[annabanana]

6. "last month's expectations / some industry indicators"

Who was optimistic last month and which 'industry indicators'were THEY smokin'?

[MrBenchley]

11. It wasn't so much that they were optimistic...

More like they weren't trending as pessimistic as they have become....

Don't forget, last month's survey was wrapped up BEFORE Katrina....

[Pirate Smile]

8. Thanks for a real answer. The benchmarks may have problems taking

into account the current pessimism permeating the country.

[MrBenchley]

10. They had the same problems during Poppa Bush's trainwreck....

The numbers always looked better on paper than they turned out to be....That's why pretty much everybody laughed their asses off whenever somebody like Bob Dole said that Clinton ruined the economy...

[indepat]

7. The natural disasters have only exposed this administration for what

it is which was plainly visible for all to see beforehand. Nothing has changed.

[VegasWolf]

12. Well, they were waiting for the government to lie about the number as

usual. They got caught red-handed.

[DBoon]

13. Because they haven't started laying off economists yet

When they do, the drop in confidence will be "predicted".

[judy]

2. 'scuse me but...

"UNEXPECTEDLY"????

Are they that stupid at Bloomberg???

[papau]

3. The big lie is the standard GOP and now standard MSM tool to keep us

happy!

:-)

[Bob3]

9. Jesus these people must live in a bubble where they are fed

happy happy joy juice every day - I mean come on only someone who had no contact with the outside world would be surprised by the drop. The Gulf coast is still a disaster, we still have high oil prices, Iraq is still a bloody mess, we still have Rita to clean up from as well, we still have an economy that isn't creating jobs, we are seeing signs that the housing bubble is about to deflate (even if it doesn't it isn't looking as good as it was recently) Washington is awash with scandals involving vast sums of money and shady deals; the white house is mired in a criminal investigation of a leak, and of course we still have the same nitwits who led us into this mess in the first place in charge - that in itself would be enough to depress a hyena.

Unexpected? God in heaven the sun rising in the east must cause them shock.

edited cause I can't spell and forget words sometimes.