& Tropical Depression 24 (Soon to be Hurricane Wilma) Is Florida Bound

[althecat]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405W5_sm2+gif/024446W_sm.gif

000
WTNT44 KNHC 160301
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 15 2005

THE CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES AND DOES NOT YET HAVE
VERY MUCH DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... BUT OUTER
BANDING FEATURES SEEM TO BE GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING. THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ENVELOPE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED... AS IS UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. A 23Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS HAD SOME 30-35 KT
VECTORS THAT ARE PROBABLY RAIN CONTAMINATED... SO THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AT ABOUT 225/3. THE WEAK STEERING RESULTS FROM THE
DEPRESSION BEING STUCK BETWEEN MID-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THIS RELATIVE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MIDLATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THE
FLOW AROUND THE GULF RIDGE APPEARS TO HAVE A SLIGHTLY GREATER
INFLUENCE FOR NOW... AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE GULF
RIDGE TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...
THE MODELS SHOW THE GULF RIDGE MIGRATING WESTWARD... LEAVING A
GROWING WEAKNESS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND ALLOWING THE
WESTWARD-BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC TO BEGIN PUSHING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD. SINCE THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR SO GRADUALLY... NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS... EXCEPT FOR
THE CANADIAN... FORECAST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO LEAVE THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITHIN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS TO
ADJUST FOR THE INITIAL MOTION... THEN BACK ON TRACK THEREAFTER...
AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL.

ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING. EVEN THOUGH THE FORWARD MOTION WILL BE SLOW... THE
LARGE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPLY FUEL FOR
INTENSIFICATION WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK BENEATH A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE COUPLED GFDL SYSTEM FORECASTS A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING TO GREATER
THAN 90 KT IN LESS THAN 72 HOURS... WHILE SHIPS SHOWS STEADY BUT
MORE CONSERVATIVE STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.0N 79.0W 25 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 16.8N 79.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 16.6N 80.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 16.6N 80.4W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 16.8N 80.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 17.5N 81.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 82.5W 85 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 83.0W 85 KT


$$


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405I_sm2+gif/024446P_sm.gif

[rpannier]

1. Sounds like your using some of that fuzzy science

Tropical depression?????
Cyclonic?????
Formulation?????

Everyone knows that if a hurrican hits then God is angry. You obviously failed your intelligent design classes.

[althecat]

2. Or possibly alabama (New Orleans lets pray not)

& Just found this version in Jeff Masters Blog
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

[converted_democrat]

11. That bold yellow line that is projecting a course for western Florida is

exactly where we are. (The more northern one)

[althecat]

18. That's an historic track.... they all are in that pic....

The tracks in the top pic are the computer models

[althecat]

29. It's Wilma Now... and definitely headed for Florida

Should be a hurricane in 12 hours...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 172041
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005

A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST ARRIVED IN THE CENTER OF
WILMA...FINDING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 989 MB...AND PEAK 850 MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 51 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. WHILE THIS
MINIMUM PRESSURE OFTEN CORRESPONDS TO NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY...
ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES ARE UNUSUALLY LOW...FLATTENING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THOUGH THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED WITH THE DIURNAL MINIMUM...BANDING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND NEW CONVECTION IS GOING OFF DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTER. WILMA
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...ONE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS. CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
MAKING WILMA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. ONCE
WILMA GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE HOSTILE AS SHEAR INCREASES...AND SOME WEAKENING IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED AT THAT TIME.

WILMA CONTINUES TO DRIFT MOSTLY SOUTHWARD...OR 190/2. CERTAINLY
THERE HAS BEEN MORE SOUTHWARD MOTION THAN ANTICIPATED...WITH THIS
POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER...THE CORE
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC THIS AFTERNOON...AND I AM
EXPECTING WILMA TO SOON BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN BETTER
ACCORD WITH THE GUIDANCE. THE BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING IS
UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE LARGE LOW OFF OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MOVES EASTWARD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW WILMA TO
GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. FOR
REASONS UNKNOWN...THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z RUNS OF THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD BY ABOUT 200 MILES AND NO LONGER
DRIVE WILMA INTO BELIZE. THE GFS AND GFDL...ON THE OTHER
HAND...HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD...RESULTING IN A RATHER NARROW
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE RATHER CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
CONSEQUENTLY...LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...EXCEPT THAT BY THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILMA
IS EXPECTED TO BE ENCOUNTERING WESTERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT SHOULD FORCE A FAIRLY SHARP RIGHT TURN. HOW SHARP A TURN WILMA
TAKES IS OBVIOUSLY OF INTEREST TO ALL ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...BUT IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO IDENTIFY SPECIFIC AREAS AT
GREATEST RISK.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.8N 79.9W 45 KT
12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.9N 80.7W 55 KT
24HR VT 18/1800Z 16.3N 81.8W 65 KT
36HR VT 19/0600Z 16.9N 82.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 19/1800Z 17.7N 84.0W 85 KT
72HR VT 20/1800Z 19.5N 85.5W 100 KT
96HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 86.5W 100 KT
120HR VT 22/1800Z 23.5N 85.0W 90 KT


$$

[The Animator]

3. Well it's about time...

We haven't had a decent hurricane here since last year. Too bad it's already started to cool down here a bit already, last year we had a couple days worth of cool weather after each hurricane, it made the Summer heat almost bearable.

[rucky]

4. Does Fred Flinstone know about this? n/t

[soothsayer]

7. Ai yi yi Wilma, I love my Wilma. Yabba dabba dabba yabba...

Remember Fred crooning that one?

[salin]

5. Tie this together with Jeb!s position now in favor of oil tankers

drilling off shore in Florida. Time to write letters to the editors to the local Fla papers linking all potentially threatening storms with the image of what Jeb! wants in terms of possible huge oil spill catastrophes.

[1monster]

6. Five Day Forecast

It cold go in a lot of different directions...

[CatholicEdHead]

8. Longer range panels of the GFS/MRF take it across FL

and then just off the eastern seaboard. A track roughly from Tampa to Orlando to Jacksonville and then back to the open ocean is forecast from last night's run.

[Akoto]

9. Wiiiillllmaaa!

Good ol' Fred Flintstone. :evilgrin:

In all seriousness, I haven't moved out of Florida yet, but I live on the east coast. I'm not yet sure what to make of this storm in terms of how worried I should be. Hell, I've already lost my house to them, so that's one thing less to panic over. :p

[Feron]

10. Please either fall apart or go anywhere but here

Not that I wish anyone ill ,but Mississippi and Louisiana have had enough for one season. I'm all hurricaned out.

[stevekatz]

13. I hear ya

I live in gulfport, i've had enouph of this for one year

[eowyn_of_rohan]

22. I deeply, sincerely hope you don't get it again...

The whole northern part of the Gulf Coast has had more than enough...from New Orleans to Ocean Springs, to Bon Secour and Gulf State Park, and this is one of the most wonderful and unspoiled and interesting stretches of coastline in the south. All that hasnt been ruined is the Port St Joe and Apalachicola area. I hope with all my heart you all are spared this time.

[realFedUp]

12. Rebuilding Florida

I wonder how much taxpayer money to date has gone
to rebuilding Florida after yearly hurricane damage?

[ElectroPrincess]

14. Hurricane Wilma?

Chances are Hurricane Betty can't be far behind. :smoke:

[MzShellG]

21. I dunno about Betty, but Beta is 2 storms away. n/t

[cliss]

15. Wilma...

Xena the Warrior Princess
Ynez
Zabrina
----------
What if they run out of names, and more hurricanes get started? Do they start over with a new list, even though those names are reserved for the next hurricane season?

Or do they recycle the names, like Anne2 and so on.

[QC]

16. They start over with the Greek alphabet. n/t

[althecat]

17. Before this season is out... . we will likely have at least an Alpha

[sleipnir]

28. There are two more named storms predicted for the season.

Most of the major computer models have two more named storms. So we should certainly have Alpha, we MIGHT even see Beta if November is rockier than being predicted. Right now, there are no named storms predicted for November, but it's been a crazy season, so who knows.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

23. Anyone know what happened to "U" and "Q"?

Or did I miss them ?(I was away on a long vaca.)

[QC]

24. They don't use all the letters. n/t

[eowyn_of_rohan]

26. Why not? -nt

[eowyn_of_rohan]

27. Found my answer, but it is a dumb one

"The letters Q, U, X, Y, Z are not included because there are not many names beginning with those letters."


Quentin
Quinn
Quincy
Uday and Usay
Uma
Ursula
Xavier
Xena
Xerxes
Yogi
Yoko
Yves
Zelda
Zsa Zsa
Zorro

[hatrack]

19. How about Hurricane Yog-Sothoth?

With a name like that, it would have to be at least a Cat 5, though . . .

[SoCalDem]

20. It's not very well organized..maybe it will fizzle

[hatrack]

25. Sun 8:00 Forecast - Will Become Tropical Storm Within 24 Hours

Don't worry, only six more weeks to go until we're "safe". :eyes:

EDIT

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FOUR
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST OR
ABOUT 150 MILES... 245 KM... SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...
4 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. HOWEVER... STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IF IT DOES SO... IT WILL TIE THE RECORD OF 21
NAMED STORMS SET IN 1933.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
NOAA BUOY 42057... LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER... RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 1004 MB.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND JAMAICA... WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.

EDIT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/162357.shtml