Experts say threat from virus is unprecedented

[RedEarth]

By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Published: 18 October 2005


The bird flu virus that has arrived in Europe poses an unprecedented threat, with experts warning that the number of human infections reported in Asia could be just a small proportion of the actual figure.

One of Britain's leading specialists in influenza said a pandemic strain of bird flu that can spread between humans is more likely to arise as more birds become infected.

Sir John Skehel, a distinguished influenza expert, said that in his experience there has not been a bird flu virus quite like the H5N1 strain that is affecting south-east Asia, Turkey and Romania. "This is an unusual situation," Sir John admitted. "Since we've been recording there hasn't been the spread of a single virus as widely as the H5 virus."

The World Health Organisation said that the current outbreaks of bird flu in south-east Asia are the largest and most severe on record. "Never before in the history of this disease have so many countries been simultaneously affected, resulting in the loss of so many birds," a WHO spokesman said.

In addition to the speed of its spread among birds, the H5N1 strain of bird flu can also infect humans and is unusually lethal, Sir John told journalists ahead of a mission of British experts to China and Vietnam next week. Thousands of birds - migratory species as well as domestic poultry - have been infected by the H5N1 strain of bird flu, which is also known to have infected at least 120 people, killing half of them.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/science_technology/article320369.ece

[whatever4]

1. My prediction

I don't think this flu is hype, I think it's real, it has that dark undertone of a real disaster being watered down, like Katrina, or peak oil. I think it's likely it's going to mutate to human-to-human and spread worldwide, maybe this year, maybe next, but soon. It's my own personal opinion, and only that, but I'd say to anyone else to not completely discount this. It's not just the lying admin telling is to "be afraid", but rather the rest of the world telling us. While the admin isn't too concerned.

Just like Katrina. That's how it feels to me. A real disaster, being downplayed, for maximum effect. I know it's paranoid as hell, and I know it's equally as true that our leaders are just insane enough to do it.

They're just evil enough to use this, to use this too, to ignore it and then wipe up the remaining masses into their brave new world, is what I think.

As long as the wealthy have protection from this thing, they'll not worry at all about us. Why should they? The weaker we are, the more they can use us, all us "Average American Workers". It's that much more difficult for the people to stop a corrupt government when the people themselves are struggling to survive.

No reason at all for them to not let this happen.

Not a one.

[Coastie for Truth]

5. My advice to a small, specialty pharma company

(with appropriate QC and FDA QC approvals) -- start making Tamiflu and rely on Roche's "unclean hands" as a defense - as to Roche "he who seeks equity must do equity" -- and patent injunctions are "eqitable remedies."

Next point - do you really think all of the Gilead and Roche Tamiflu patents are "valid" (I am not talking 112, I am talking 102/103 - novelty and non-obviousness). Seeking to enforce one of them makes the whole bunch unenforcable -- and makes the whole enfrcement program an anti-trust issue.

Look them over
5763483 -- Bischofberger (Carbocyclic Compounds)
5866601 -- Lew (Carbocyclic Compounds)
5952375 -- Bischofberger (Compounds and methods for synthesis and therapy)

[ed murrow]

6. I think about Avian Flu everyday...

I think the flu threat is real but not likely to spread in any country/ areas where humans don't live in close proximity to animals.

ANyway I think the Bush press conference is a last minute CYA ..he is now going to embrace science a little bit so if does come back to bite him in the ass like Katrina he will say I have been worried about the problem for weeks

I doubt Bush does anything proactively

[RaleighNCDUer]

10. If it mutates to person-to-person transmissibility, you can take

animals out of the equation. The 1918 flu started as a bird flu, but was transmitted between people that had absolutely no contact with animals - it was concentrated in the cities, the military barracks, and moved by ship and train. Today we have first rate roads and aircraft available to spread it - you saw what SARS did, springing up all across SE Asia, and reaching Canada. And SARS is not extraordinarily virulent.

As for *, yeah, I quite agree.

[whatever4]

20. and

"If it mutates to person-to-person transmissibility..."

What I'm thinking is that with millions of birds contracting it, that possibility grows and grows. Right now, it's rampant in the bird population. In my simple mind, that increase proportionally increases the likelihood for the mutation.

When I read yesterday that the bird flu is rampant in many wild bird populations right now is when I realized it's likely the perfect storm for this disease to mutate. Either this year, or the year after.

After that, the flu will have run it's course. Most birds will have been exposed to it, and will either have some immunity, or will have already died. Illness from it later, exposure to it in later years will be less severe and not as widespread.

Either way, this particular flu will have run it's course, either in this season or the next. Like the West Nile virus, anyone remember it killed crows? They've either lived through it by now...or not.

It seems that it would only stand to reason that the mutation would likely happen during the time when the concentration is the largest, when the virus is being fought off by the various hosts. So many hosts, so many opportunities for mutation. The more birds, the more chances. Right now it's an out of control, raging fire.

The time for mutation seems to be now. In my simple mind.

[Whoa_Nelly]

61. The pictures of thousands of dead birds in China

keep coming to mind.

Article:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/06030502/H5N1_Qinghai_Bird_Photos.html

Two pictures:

Here's one




Both are at this link:
http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/china/2005/06/200506032331.shtml

[whatever4]

85. So many hosts for the virus to play with

That's what makes me think this too, all the wild bird populations that are seeing this virus now, and all those dead birds. If they're seeing large numbers of bird deaths now, very large numbers, it makes me think it might be the top, or nearing the top, of the bell curve of the numbers of infected animals. With every case, the chances of a mutation go up, so the more cases, the more mutations. If we've reached peak exposure, then to me it seems most likely, though it's only a statistical "most likely" which I couldn't possibly estimate, but nevertheless, it's most likely to happen when the most chances for it are provided. Which is, from what I can see, this year or the next.

Sure hope I'm a brainless idiot about it though. I'm ready to exchange my brain for a safer world, at this point.

[tavalon]

77. Damn your simple mind

I was about to write that you are right about the increased risk but not right about that this will burn itself out. My reasoning was that this has been around since 1997 so why will it burn itself out in the next couple of years? But then I realized what I missed, even though I've been watching this thing for the last three years. In Asia, they were (and still are) being very proactive about killing the flocks that were infected with this but what has changed is that it has gotten out of their control (as if they ever had a chance of keeping it in control but I think they delayed it a bit through their actions). It's spreading through the bird populations rapidly now and is even jumping species somewhat.

This is the perfect storm. And if it's going to mutate, now or very soon are the most likely times.

I think on some level I had already gotten this as I made a concrete plan this year. Still, damn.

[whatever4]

84. " Damn your simple mind"

Hey, I'm here ain't I? Feeling quite damned! :)

Best of luck with all your plans. Best of luck to all of us.

I think what I'm most afraid of, personally, is that they'll quarantine areas, but that they won't help them. That it will become an action of containing the infection, but, not an action of helping anyone. That they won't have the "resources" to assist anyone, only enough resources to help some, some token for-pr cases, while basically just keeping people contained. That's what I worry about. Aside from watching people die, of course. That's the part I really don't want to see, people dying with no help, and not even any sympathy.

[tavalon]

89. Unfortunately

Our health care system will not be able to hold out. Quarantining without help will be exactly what happens. I hate this administration with the best of them but this system was set up long before this group of opportunists sauntered into the whitehouse. Even if they did everything right (and what's the likelihood of that?) it will play out just that way. The people who have made some plans may or may not survive. The ones without a plan will fair a bit worse.

[whatever4]

91. I agree with you completely

Unfortunately.

All us here will just have to keep in touch, eh? That's something I wonder about. Will we be on here telling, our own personal horror stories? Katrina magnified shared stories of death and misery and loss. For that matter, will the internet still be "open", if that happens, if disaster strikes the nation overall.

I really like that last statement of yours, because it sums up my fears. So many people, and we all know them, just don't have a clue, and won't be at all prepared for anything. It gets just a tiny bit easier to pity, and forgive, some of the neocons. I don't wish suffering on anyone.

[JoFerret]

97. No sneezing on the keyboard, OK?

.

[Kailassa]

112. Quarantining can encourage deadlier mutations.

When people are packed so closely that the virus can easily travel form a bedridden person to a large group of others, the virus no longer needs to be mild enough to enable victims to still walk around in order to spread. In those circumstances more powerful versions of the virus are likely to emerge.

In the first week of October 16,000 military men were stricken, and troopships headed for France became floating pestholes. In the American Expeditionary Force roughly one out of every three soldiers with influenza died, far worse odds than a man faced in battle. Among some army units influenza mortality reached 80 per cent.

http://www.americanheritage.com/articles/web/20051012-flu-influenza-1918-epidemic.shtml

Hospitals were a similarly dangerous place to be, and would be again, particularly Emergency waiting rooms.

So if any attempt is made to herd people into confined spaces in the event of an epidemic, see it for the mass murder it would be, and if it can't be prevented, at least resist any effort to do that to yourselves or your loved ones.

[Nordmadr]

9. I for once think Bush is right about the flu threat, however, I think

he is only bringing it to the forefront to scare and distract people. I don't believe he truly cares whether or not there is a great pandemic as long as certain elites are protected.

Here is my tin-hat, make of it what you will:

It seems abundantly clear to me that the world is headed for an energy crisis of unimaginable scale when it comes to natural gas and oil. What goes up, must come down. Now it may trickle up on us slowly, which is what it has been doing up until now, or at some point we may reach a tipping point where everything just sort of falls apart economically and socially. To say the very least, this would be VERY bad...globally. Now with that in mind, it would be quite possible that without proper planning there could be a significant die-off in human population as people are unable to get medical supplies, food, heat, etc. due to a lack of inexpensive fossil fuels. What better way to deflect criticism for allowing this to happen, than by allowing something that you have acknowledged take the blame instead. This is where the flu comes in. Governments of the world acknowledge that the threat is real and say they are doing what they can to stop it, but oh damn, just couldn't quite protect enough. A massive infection of the flu in the U.S. that wiped out a large portion of the population would also obviously greatly reduce the energy needs and demands from this Nation. Energy concerns would suddenly take the back seat as people deal with the more immediate threat.

It is like we are being slowly conditioned as we simmer in the slowly warming pot. When the walls come tumbling down, it won't be any surprise. It will simply be, "Well we knew it was just a matter of time".

Now, I am not saying this is TRUTH, just a hypothesis, and anyone scientific knows these are often disproven. I'll tell you though, it sure seems like the world is crumbling around us and it makes me nervous as hell. The band is playing while the Titanic sinks.

Olaf

[drduffy]

95. I also read in Michael

Ruppert's recent speech the same conclusion. Too many people? So kill a few (millions) off.

[gulfcoastliberal]

2. Stock up on the Tamiflu while it's available.

Just google 'Tamiflu Online' and get it. An ounce of prevention and all... If this thing really does break out, you won't be able to find any of the stuff. It's made in Switzerland and we won't be getting any if the pandemic does happen. Better safe than sorry.

[Cactus44]

3. Just look out for counterfeits. They'll be poping up everywhere

in the comming months.

[hallc]

4. i wouldn't recommend that...

First of all - you need a prescription to get Tamiflu - buying it offline w/out a script is dangerous and to tell others to do this is irresponsible on your part. Second, the more people take tamiflu, the more resistance the virus will gain - there was already a girl with avian flu who was resistant to tamiflu - these viruses can mutate very easily, much more so then bacteria - its the same concept...don't prescribe unneeded antibiotics...don't take unneeded antivirals.

Edited to add a link : http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/10/051015091647.htm

[Trillo]

27. Buying Rx (not C) offline w/out a script IS dangerous

to drug company's border-based predatory-pricing schemes and to their professional partners in greed.

Much better to buy it online, eh?

[hallc]

29. hahaha

i meant that as online - whoops to late to edit now!

[gulfcoastliberal]

36. Then it's irresponsible that world governments are hoarding it.

Think of all those government agents popping Tamiflu all day! :sarcasm:

DUH! You only take it AFTER you get the flu - within the first 3 days of having symptoms! This is not an antibiotic. That girl had been taking 1 course of it as a preventive measure, not after acquiring symptoms. Good luck getting your prescription filled if/when a pandemic occurs, assuming you can even get in to see a doctor. I'm keeping my supply of Tamiflu onhand just in case a lethal pandemic breaks out - not to eat like little candies. If a pandemic breaks out and I get sick, then I take it. My dad is a doctor and has no problem with what I'm doing. He went to Swarthmore & NYU for his Masters and MD and has been doing published peer-reviewed medical research for over 50 years. Where did you go to med school? What are your credentials?

All I did was put some info out for those interested to investigate if they want to be prepared, or not. You can take your uninformed sanctimony and shove it.

[hallc]

37. My credentials?

Im a physician assistant - and the fact is most people won't take Tamiflu AFTER they get sick like they are supposed to, they will take it beforehand to prevent it. I don't care for your negativity when all i was saying is that buying medicine online is a stupid idea

[snot]

63. How to tell

which suppliers are selling the real thing?

[phantom power]

7. "since we've been recording"

Yeah, but how long have we had the technology to accurately track a virus? The most recent previous pandemic was in the 1960s. To my knowledge, we had no technology for tracking the realtime spread of a new virus back then, the way we do today.

We simply don't have the same detailed info for incidents like 1918, or 1963(?) It's hard to compare.

[hallc]

8. I agree

I think alot of this is hype - granted, i understand the threat that is there, but seriously, i think alot of this is just to scare people.

[phantom power]

22. Part of the problem is that it's unknown until it happens.

Since the exact nature of a human-communicable strain is impossible to predict until it appears, it's easy to let the imagination run wild. Lord knows, I've spent a few nights lying awake at 3am, pondering horrific scenarios. The fact that the current strain has such a high fatality rate makes theoretical "worst-case" scenarios seem pretty bad.

But natural selection for communicability also tends to select for decreased fatality rates. And what the heck, we might get lucky and avoid a pandemic mutation. However, I'm very glad that officials are taking the threat seriously. "Hope for the best" is not a plan, no matter what America's faith-based leaders say.

[hallc]

26. agreed once again

A virus that is overly deadly is a stupid virus - viruses don't want to kill their host, because in the end when the host dies so does the virus. This is why Ebola isn't that big of a threat - it never spreads very far because of its high mortality rate - it usually fizzles out before it can hitch a ride elsewhere.

[Kailassa]

49. The 1918 flu hit in 2 waves,

and the 2nd wave was far more virulent than the first. You can't predict anything for sure with a new form of influenza.

My take on it is that it may never rain, either, but I've got my umbrella for when it does.

[Orrin_73]

96. One of the reasons that the 1918 virus spread so fast

was that troops coming home after the war brought the virus with them.

[Ms. Clio]

98. Right--I was just reading newspaper articles from the period

Several of the articles talked about the "second wave." The epidemic lasted about three months in Texas, and it hit virtually every county in the state, not just crowded cities.

One article was titled, "Influenza Causes Loss of Many Bread Winners," because the flu killed healthy, productive, adults with good immune systems.

Another newspaper article was titled, "Was America Adequately Protected During Invasion of the Spanish Influenza" and discusses "the growing conviction" that the epidemic was "due to the laxity of the port authorities along the Eastern Seaboard." Fascinating stuff.

[northzax]

57. we have no idea what the actual mortality rate of this virus is

we know that people who get symptoms die in large numbers, but no studies have ever been done to track exposure of other people who didn't present themselves with serious infections. There are millions of people who work in close contact with birds that have been destroyed , no one has ever searched for anti-bodies among non-sick poulty workers in Asia. Maybe only one in a thousand people exposed to the virus get so much as the sniffles, we have no idea. maybe only one in ten thousand. fact is, of the five million plus people we know have been, or should have been, exposed to the virus, only 60 died. a tragedy, no doubt. simple epidemiology tells us that the living situations in the United States are not such that a deadly airborne virus can really take hold. These people were really, really sick, we're talking hospitalisation sick, what are your odds of running into one of them, unless you work in a hospital? not that good. the 1918 virus, for instance, berd to exceptional virulence in the jam-packed environs of the Western Front and Military bases that had poor sanitation. we simply don't have those circumstances now. Not that it couldn't happen, but I don't know a public health person, or an epidemiologist (and I know quite a few) who really is scared by this, concerned, yes, but not panicky scared. And they're always concerned by something.

So for now, use the single greatest public health innovation ever: soap. wash your hands religiously.

[Nordic65]

28. Awareness!!

WHOs recent awareness program (looks like scare-mongering when presented by the mental midgets in the press) is directed at governments, not individuals.

Since the flu could strike tomorrow or sometime in the next century, the first line of defense is awareness and constant updated research, policy and development at the government level and above.

Comparing the pandemic of 1918 to a possible pandemic in 2005 and beyond is also misleading. WHOs current "awareness program" alone makes us much more prepared than anybody was in either 1918, the late 50's or even the late 60's. Add to that the massive increase in our knowledge over the last 87 years in the related fields of medical treatment and containment.

Look at auto-related fatalities. Todays number in northern Europe is comparable to the real term numbers of the mid-fifties. Compared to the number of cars and increased traffic the fatality-rate has nose-dived, and it's still falling rapidly. Are we less mortal today than fifty years ago. Think not, but we know more and we use the knowledge to our advantage.

That's why the next outbreak of the avian flu will not be anything like the pandemic of 1918.

[tavalon]

78. Try to hold these two things simultaneously

First, the media is really, really hyping this and the government is happy to go along with it. Second, this is a really, really serious situation.

These two things really can co-exist.

[SidDithers]

92. Well said, tavalon...nt

Sid

[superconnected]

13. aids, that japanese staph a few years back thats still spreading

the one that was in canada only a few years ago where even the stones cancelled their concert - I don't remember the name of that big one - red something. There have been many virus' to track. Animal wise there are also many. Hang on the pets group and see the new stuff spreading and killing kittens and dogs right now. There's new stuff there are no vaccines for. Oh, almost forgot - mad cow.

You're right but we do have some recent experience that may help.

[hallc]

14. umm...

we are talking viruses - staph is a bacteria, mad cow is a prion - big difference

[superconnected]

15. I failed biology.

Oh wait, I passed HS biology. I failed College chemistry...

I didn't know that about virus'. Thanks!

[hallc]

17. honest mistake

and its ok - i almost failed organic chemistry in college as well :)

[kestrel91316]

106. We NORMAL people ALL almost failed organic chem!

Only the geeks and prospective pharmacists (like my sister) could ace organic chem..............heck, they probably aced quantitative analysis too.

[DemBones DemBones]

113. Actually. the only person I knew who failed organic chem

is now a pharmacist. He managed that by dropping out of the private college where he flunked organic and then restarting college at the state university without revealing that he had ever attended college before. Must be related to * since he got away with it.

[kestrel91316]

31. There is nothing NEW killing kittiens right now, but there ARE

an inexcusable number of cases of panleukopenia, which is virtually 100% preventable with proper vaccinations and good husbandry practices.

There IS a relatively new dog disease, canine flu, which mutated from equine flu. It is occurring sporadically, is highly contagious, and can in some cases lead to hemorrhagic pneumonia and death. But most dogs that get it DON'T get seriously ill, like flu in people.

Now about mad cow (BSE). That's a whole nother can of worms. I don't eat much beef anymore. Think of that what you will.

[depakid]

83. How long has FIPV been around?

I don't recall hearing about FIP until the late 90's- and I lost a kitten to the disease in 2003. The vet claimed that he must have picked it up from his litter mates or at the shelter.

I'm guessing that's a fairly recently mutated corona virus that's easily transferred cat to cat (and like most corona viri- the damn stuff is hardy and can "survive" a long time outside a host). It's bad news.

http://www.vet.uga.edu/vpp/clerk/baranik/

[kestrel91316]

93. FIP is nothing new. It's a very hard disease for us to study, because

diagnosis is so difficult. It arises after infection with a ubiquitous, and normally harmless coronavirus, which in certain circumstances (usually overcrowding, poor nutrition, untreated other diseases, etc) mutates within an individual cat to cause the disease FIP. FIP itself is not actually contagious. The disease symptoms are as a result of immune mediated vasculitis, which is basically the body's immune system turning traitor.

The FIP test is essentially worthless, as both false positives and false negatives abound. To we consider it essentially a CORONAVIRUS test, and because corona is found eveywhere and is normally harmless, the test isn't worth the money IMHO.

Now have I got you confused??? LOL

[superconnected]

11. they forgot to add - and Carlyle just happens to have the vaccine.

Gee it's affecting all those countries simutaneously like nothing they've ever seen before. Now how does that happen.

Apparently it isn't likely under normal NATURAL circumstances.

[greygandalf]

12. The U.S. is rich, we won't be hit nearly as hard as some other countries.

[HereSince1628]

18. affluence helps but it's associated with hygiene and access to care

If there is no vaccine or effective anti-viral drug to buy then affluence is of little value.

[whatever4]

33. I agree, the richness of our lifestyles won't protect us

Unless we live in isolation, having no contact with other people, we're as much at risk as anyone else. Maybe more healthy than some third world countries, overall, but our exposure will be the same. People interact with people, before they know they're sick, and it spreads.

We might be more healthy, better fed, and better able to survive, overall in America. But, then again, we've got a fuel shortage coming, and folks might be hit with hard economic times. These hard times include bankruptcy, the hundreds of thousands affected by the hurricanes, and our government is helping our people very little. The hard times are going to continue. Job losses, or can't even afford the gas to get to work, when it's combined with all the other increases in the cost of living. Food. Healthcare is cost prohibitive for too many people. Then there's the possibility of losing heat in our homes this winter. Imagine fighting off the flu when the house can't be kept warm. Imagine that happening to thousands of people, because...it probably will. And, along with that, is what I perceive to be an overall increase in our stress level. I know I've read this and that about it; we're stressed.

It all makes us weaker and more vulnerable to disease, overall, across the board. Our nation is, in some ways, already sick. We all know it. We all feel it. If we aren't worried about our jobs, we're worried about the war, and if we aren't worried about the war, we're worried about the crazies running our nation and the nutty stuff they say, and if not that, there's plenty of other stuff like Katrina, other hurricanes, peak oil, global warming, other nations, other wars and on and on and ON. We all know it. Every day. We're stressed.

And they're cutting medical care for the poor.

No, our rich lifestyles aren't going to help us much at all, imho. In fact, some ways, with obesity, stress, unhealthy lifestyles and depression/mental illness rates, I don't wonder if it's actually just the opposite.

[Trillo]

44. Inherited immunity factors may have been broken by greed.

For many years, some doctors recommended to mothers that they feed their infants formula instead of breastfeeding, and this was easy to exploit a sexually repressed culture (even today, look at the cultural inhibition relating to public breastfeeding in the U.S.). However, in the last several decades the importance of breastfeeding is being promoted by doctors and science, but that doesn't change what happened not-so-long ago.

"A variety of distinct antiviral factors were found in human colostrum and milk'"

- Sabin and Fieldsteel (1962) Pediatrics 29: 105.

http://www.latrobe.edu.au/microbiology/table2.html

Was the anti-viral chain from mother to child broken by the exclusive use of formula, starting as early as the 19th and 20th centuries? I have to wonder if the bird flu of the early 20th century was in part a problem because of that broken chain, the generational timeline is about right.

The next question that comes to mind, if naturally passed antiviral immunity factors were broken from mother to child: How many today will have resistance to the flu of the early 1900s?


Source: http://www.contemporarypediatrics.com/contpeds/article/articleDetail.jsp?id=111702

[whatever4]

90. I'm so glad

So glad my family never stopped the practice of nursing, and I was raised with the idea of immunity, traced back to the old country, and all that. When I was a teen, mom took microbiology and spouted some of this stuff at me, and it didn't mean crap to me then. Ha, I wasn't going to have any kids, then. So...when I had babies, I managed to nurse them, working or not, active duty military (which was a hoot, sometimes, let me TELL you) or not, and that's all there was too it.

Now, I am so thankful. Hopefully, that simple idea, not at ALL popular when my mother and grandmother had babies, helped me give my children something irreplacable. I certainly couldn't have done it myself. And it cracks me up, sometimes, to realize I come by my stubborness honestly, the same way :) Thankfully. Whatever natural immunity there was to pass down, a lot of it Irish, we passed. Now, I can only hope it helps, if it comes down to that.

[Kailassa]

110. It's a mindboggling idea ...

that through unbroken generations of breast feeding, perhaps immunity can be passed down from several generations back. Makes me glad that I've breastfed a few dozen kids. ;-)

[Bridget Burke]

34. Is that OK with you?

Let the rich live & the poor die?

Clue: Not everybody in this country is rich--especially when it comes to health care access.

Will a vaccine be created in time, after the flu mutates to a more dangerous form? Will the vaccine be produced quickly enough to protect everyone? (Chiron, who screwed up last year, is still having problems.)

http://today.reuters.com/business/newsArticle.aspx?type=health&storyID=nN17246935

Secondary infections are big killers in flu patients (although this was probably not the case in 1918-19). These patients can often be saved with timely, intensive medical care. How will our health care system deal with this?

And will Bush & Co ignore the issue until it's time to send in the Army?

[whatever4]

41. I'm sure you don't really want an answer

"And will Bush & Co ignore the issue until it's time to send in the Army?"

to that question.

And understand, your question assumes the Army in question would be sent in to "help", rather than to "control". I question that assumption highly.

Mine answer would be more along the lines of tinfoil hat variety, to say, but of course they will! Waiting for the disaster to build is what they do best, and is the easiest thing to not have to claim responsibility for having done. Inaction. Not to have done "anything", they didn't kill anyone, not "really", such as with Katrina.

But that's only if you believe our leaders are out to kill large numbers of Americans, and not just Americans. Would they actively want do do that? I don't know, don't even know if I want to know. I'd almost just rather leave that one as an unproven theory until I can't deny it anymore. That "they" want to kill "us". What a thing to say, that our government would be planning to kill us. As an active goal, and not as a means to achieve some end, to kill large swaths of us. If it's true, I think I'd really rather never know.

[Bridget Burke]

45. I do NOT assume that Bush intends the Army to help.

He's had a woody for Martial Law for a long time now.

[whatever4]

46. I'll try to be better with my own assumptions

and I agree with you. They'd been drawing up all kinds of neat stuff, before 911. Martial law. I just can't believe we've come to this. Sigh.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

35. Yeah, but what about spider bites?

[brainshrub]

39. US health-care system increases the dangers of an epidemic.

US health-care system increases the dangers of an epidemic.

Suppose a highly contagious, and deadly, pathogen was exposed to the crowd in Washington DC? We have over 40 million Americans without health insurance. What are the ramifications of having a significant chunk of the American population not having access to a physician when they first fall ill?

Unless a virus only attacks the insured or the wealthy, the United State's privatized health-care system does not provide an efficient way to quickly detect a new epidemic. To be sure, once people started dying, citizens would flock to the hospitals; But in the critical early stages of the disease, when the most could have been done to prevent it’s spread, many Americas will unwittingly spread the virus for strictly economic reasons.

[Kailassa]

50. That's quite right,

and that's why the folks in NO after Katrina were looked after so much better than folk were in poor Cuba after their hurricanes. :sarcasm:

[greygandalf]

51. That is one upside to more governmental control.

China and Cuba just send in the army to remove everyone. We depend on people to do it themselves.

[Judi Lynn]

60. The Cuban people have had a great program of their own.

They aren't removed by the Cuban army. Your claim doesn't serve as well as the truth:

Preparedness saves lives as hurricane hits Cuba
23 September 2002
Xavier Castellanos in Havana, Cuba

As Hurricane Isidore passed over southwestern Cuba this past weekend, Cuban authorities implemented emergency procedures to evacuate 280,000 people to safety. No loss of life was reported, but many homes and farms have been damaged.

"The hurricane destroyed everything I have, but at least we are alive," said a woman in the municipality of San Juan y Martinez, in Piñar del Rio province, southwest Cuba, whilst showing the local media the shattered remains of her house.

Hers is one of many similar stories following the passage of Hurricane Isidore on 20 September which destroyed and damaged houses and farms, but did not take any human lives thanks to Cuba's well-organized disaster preparedness and response systems.

As soon as news of the hurricane was received, Cuban Civil Defense authorities launched emergency procedures, including phases of warning, alarm, emergency and recuperation –all aimed at saving lives– and 280,000 people were evacuated from their homes in the hours before Isidore made landfall on Cuban territory.

Cubans have understood the need to follow emergency procedures closely when hurricanes threaten to unleash their full force onto the country. Just 10 months ago, only five people died when Hurricane Michelle passed over Cuba, showing how Cubans' take heed of emergency response procedures.

The country's high state of preparedness during the emergency phase of a natural disaster in Cuba means that, when they occur, they are not sensational and dramatic events as sometimes seen in media reports of catastrophes in other countries. Although Hurricane Isidore was destructive, the most notable characteristic of the Cuban response was the implementation of a set of well-organized emergency procedures ensuring rapid and orderly evacuations from high-risk areas.
(snip)

The media and volunteers have played a significant role in informing people of developments before, during, and after the impact of the hurricane. "The real Red Cross work will be seen in the coming days," said Dr. Luis Foyo, secretary general of the Cuban Red Cross. "Up to the present we are following standard emergency response procedures, and, later on, based on identified needs, we will be able to determine the Red Cross capacity to support the efforts of the authorities," he added.
(snip)

http://www.ifrc.org/docs/news/02/092302/

Cuba's preparedness and efficiency in moving the entire population to safety is well-known the world over. They've been through it enough.

As for China's hurricane emergency procedures, you'll probably want to check your sources!

[Ms. Clio]

65. Yeah, we've seen exactly what that affluence meant during Katrina

Now multiply that by at least 1000 cities.

[SheilaT]

16. If it mutates.

If it mutates into a form that is bo6h easily transmissible AND deadly. Flu viruses mutate all the time. There is no reason, other than the hype, to think it will mutate is precisely this way. I simply cannot understand the hype. If I were a real tin-foil hat person, I'd suggest they've already got the deadly, readily transmissible version ready to release.

And I'm still confused about the claim that the 1918 flu was an avian flu. Up until a few weeks ago it was still being said to have been a swine flu. When did that change? In fact, if I recall correctly, prior to 1918 swine were never infected with flu viruses, and afterward they were.

Avian flu is definitely deadly to birds. And to a small number of humans who are in close contact with them.

Remember the Swine Flu Fiasco of 1976? Based on one soldier's death from flu in Ft. Dix, this whole huge scary scenario was presented that the swine flu, which we were assured back then was probably the same as the 1918 flu, was going to break loose and cause a huge epidemic. Didn't happen.

Which is why I don't believe the "authorities" now. They're basing this claim of a pandemic on very scanty evidence.

[hallc]

19. The 1918 virus was not avian

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/08/020802075526.htm
More info on the virus here http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/10/051005230557.htm

[whatever4]

23. The 1918 virus WAS avian

http://www.truthout.org/issues_05/100605HB.shtml
Experts Unlock Clues to Spread of 1918 Flu Virus
By Gina Kolata
The New York Times

Thursday 06 October 2005

The 1918 influenza virus, the cause of one of history's most deadly epidemics, has been reconstructed and found to be a bird flu that jumped directly to humans, two teams of federal and university scientists announced yesterday.



No, actually it was a bird flu. They have tissue samples from human victims.

Talked about this yesterday
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2163095

Your article is from 2002
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2002/08/020802075526.htm
Smithsonian Institution
Date: 2002-08-02
1918 Human Influenza Epidemic No Longer Linked To Birds

[hallc]

25. ok, i was wrong

well, the article that i had from Oct. 6th did NOT mention the avian part. Excuse me. I retract my statement that it wasn't bird flu.

[whatever4]

30. Not to pick, but

It was the first line of the story that so many other links pointed to. I'm also not sure how you could have noticed the Oct 6 story anywhere and not have noticed the main theme of it, the main theme being they had just discovered it was an avian flu. Hard to miss that part, seeing as it was the point of the entire article.

But I've done stuff like that myself, so I'm not saying you're lying or anything silly like that. That wouldn't be very nice, and it wouldn't help in any case.

Here's a good one, I confused my govenor with my representative. They're related, the Blunts. I felt real stupid about that, but then again, they're of the same mind, so it hardly made any difference. Still feel stupid though. I wrote a long post, and just joined them together, not noticing the first name was different. Sigh.

[hallc]

38. Ok then...

Here is the first 2 paragraphs from MY article that i posted:

Researchers Reconstruct 1918 Pandemic Influenza Virus; Effort Designed To Advance Preparedness

Scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have successfully reconstructed the influenza virus strain responsible for the 1918 pandemic, a project that greatly advances preparedness efforts for the next pandemic.

“This groundbreaking research helps unlock the mystery of the 1918 flu pandemic and is critically important in our efforts to prepare for pandemic influenza,” said CDC Director Dr. Julie Gerberding. “We need to know much more about pandemic influenza viruses. Research such as this helps us understand what makes some influenza viruses more harmful than others. It also provides us information that may help us identify, early on, influenza viruses that could cause a pandemic.”
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/10/051005230557.htm

Im sorry, but i don't see where MY Oct. 6th article mentions the avian flu anywhere in the first paragraph. But maybe im blind. This was the article i was talking about, not the NYtimes and/or Nature article.

[whatever4]

40. It seems you are right about that

and I am wrong.

No, I don't see it mentioned either.

I noticed the Science Daily article has "The work, done in collaboration with Mount Sinai School of Medicine, the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology and Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory", while the one sited by http://www.nytimes.com has "in a secure laboratory at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. The research is being published in the journals Nature and Science. "

I'm not sure they're even the same study.

[hallc]

47. nice catch

2 seperate studies for the same thing???

[whatever4]

86. And the timing of them

Makes me wonder too. How confusing.

Now, to this, add what I read the other day, and I shamefully don't have a link for it right now, about the deaths of some microbiologists that have been studying bird flu. That one, I don't even want to believe. I want to write it off as total bs. Killing scientists, straight out of a Tom Cruise movie, right. But I'm not sure I can write it off, and, that bothers me as much as anything, because if info about this virus was worth a death sentence, I think it must be a death sentence for a LOT of people.

I kept looking at those two articles, and then I realized they weren't, apparently, done by the same agencies, and at different locations too. Hm mm.


That's my maximum tinfoil-hat :) I just get saner from here ;)

[Kailassa]

102. Take care of that tin-foil hat ;-)

The info about what avian influenza is circulating freely and any attempt to silence scientists for telling the truth in that regard would be too stupid for even this government. If it's true that scientist are being murdered, it would take something like the knowledge about creation of bio-terrorist weapons to give a reason to go to that much trouble.

[kestrel91316]

107. They only discovered that the 1918 bug was avian a few days ago...

[Kailassa]

109. Good to have another intelligent voice here

with well researched information that the scoffers might listen to.

:headbang:

[RedEarth]

24. You might want to read the NYT article .... it appears it was avian.

Two teams of federal and university scientists announced today that they had resurrected the 1918 influenza virus, the cause of one of history's most deadly epidemics, and had found that unlike the viruses that caused more recent flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, the 1918 virus was actually a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.

........

The findings, the scientists say, reveal a small number of genetic changes that may explain why this virus was so lethal. The work also confirms the legitimacy of worries about the bird flu viruses that are now emerging in Asia.

The new research indicates that the 1918 virus, unlike more recent flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, was actually a bird flu that jumped directly to humans. The new studies find that today's bird flu viruses share a few of the crucial genetic changes that occurred in the 1918 flu. The scientists suspect that with the 1918 flu, changes in just 25 to 30 out of about 4,400 amino acids in the viral proteins turned the virus into a killer. The bird flus, known as H5N1 viruses, have a few, but not all, of those changes.


http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/05/health/05cnd-flu.html...

[Kailassa]

56. Not all bird-flus are H5N1.

That just happens to be the one considered a threat atm. There are a few others currently in circulation amongst birds too. And the 1918 bird-flu was H1N1.

[RedEarth]

21. Here's a link to an article in the NYT dealing with the 1918 Flu...

Two teams of federal and university scientists announced today that they had resurrected the 1918 influenza virus, the cause of one of history's most deadly epidemics, and had found that unlike the viruses that caused more recent flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, the 1918 virus was actually a bird flu that jumped directly to humans.

The work, being published in the journals Nature and Science, involved getting the complete genetic sequence of the 1918 virus, using techniques of molecular biology to synthesize it, and then using it to infect mice and human lung cells in a specially equipped, secure lab at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta.

The findings, the scientists say, reveal a small number of genetic changes that may explain why this virus was so lethal. The work also confirms the legitimacy of worries about the bird flu viruses that are now emerging in Asia.

The new research indicates that the 1918 virus, unlike more recent flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, was actually a bird flu that jumped directly to humans. The new studies find that today's bird flu viruses share a few of the crucial genetic changes that occurred in the 1918 flu. The scientists suspect that with the 1918 flu, changes in just 25 to 30 out of about 4,400 amino acids in the viral proteins turned the virus into a killer. The bird flus, known as H5N1 viruses, have a few, but not all, of those changes.

In a joint statement, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Julie Gerberding, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said, "The new studies could have an immediate impact by helping scientist focus on detecting changes in the evolving H5N1 virus that might make widespread transmission among humans more likely."

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/05/health/05cnd-flu.html...

[Kailassa]

55. Sheila, where to start? ;-)

The 1918 flu was thought to be a swine-flu until it was isolated from bodies of those who had died of it, just a few years ago. The scientists concerned were amazed to find the assumption had been wrong and it was bird-flu.

I haven't seen anything saying that pigs did not get the flu before 1918, I would be interested to see any information on that.

The virus has already begun mutating, becoming more easily transmissible between humans, and once that starts, it doesn't stop.
It's like needing to throw a hundred sixes, if you throw the dice often enough it is bound to happen. The mutations so far have not made it any less deadly, though it is probably not really killing 60% of those it infects. If we're lucky it is infecting a lot more people and it's not been diagnosed because they have not got that sick. But even if it comes down to 6% instead of 60%, that is still far worse than the 1918 outbreak.

As for your assumption that the evidence is scanty, epidemiologists make a career of studying this sort of thing, and an enormous amount of data has been put together over the years to compare with the data they are getting now. And the virus is being watched continually in several places, to observe the mutations as they happen.

I certainly hope it doesn't happen, but stocking up on anti-virals or home remedies, and keeping a few weeks supply of food in the cupboard is only sensible with the threat as it is.

[tavalon]

79. It changed when they finished analyzing it genetically

I'm not going to go back and check the date right now but they finished analyzing it this year.

As I said before, try to hold these two concepts simultaneously: The media is really, really hyping the avian flu and the avian flu is really, really serious.

With the exception of hallc here, I haven't seen a single healthcare professional, myself included, who isn't really, really concerned.

If we're really, really lucky, this dangerous situation will pass us by. Willing to hang your hat on luck? I'm not.

[kestrel91316]

32. This could actually be a GOOD thing:

"The bird flu virus that has arrived in Europe poses an unprecedented threat, with experts warning that the number of human infections reported in Asia could be just a small proportion of the actual figure."

If there are a lot more human cases than previously suspected, it could be because most of the human cases are subclinical or produce only mild disease. And that would mean the % mortality rate is LOTS lower than they have been thinking.

This would be a good development.

[toddaa]

42. The 1918 pandemic had a mortality somewhere between 2 and 5%

And that one was catastrophic.

[hallc]

48. The reason it was catastrophic

was because most people died of secondary infections rather than the flu itself - When you get the flu, the virus causes your immune system to be suppressed - good for the virus, because it means it has more of a free reign on your body, but bad for you because now you have a higher chance of getting another infection on top of the flu. However, since 1918, there has been the lovely discovery of antibiotics, and while the secondary infections do occur, they are able to be treated now.

[belle]

52. Right on the heels of WWI, too--immunity down all over the place.

I would think.

Not just because of circumstances (the war's physical devastation, the huddling together, the lack of resources/access to hygiene/broken infrastructure), but also anyone who'd seen action and even their loved ones would have been especially vulnerable--stress lowers immunity, and we're talking major trauma.

Not that we don't have any of that now, of course...still, not (yet) as widespread, at least not in the same areas.

Obviously I still hope to Christ we can avoid this. Even if those of us who're living in relatively stable situations manage okay, imagine what this could do to poor, battered New Orleans and environs. to say nothing of Iraq and other war-torn areas, should it get there...

[Kailassa]

59. No Hallc and Belle,

no good making assumptions without doing your homework. ;-)

The 1918 flu killed very quickly, people who died of it were mostly dead before they had a chance to develop secondary infections.

The people who it did kill were mostly young and healthy. The majority of fatalities were in the 18 to 40 y o group.

What people died of was usually their own immune systems going crazy, bursting the cilia in the lungs that bird-flu viruses infect, (unlike other flus, which infect smooth tissue,) and causing the patient to drown in their own blood.

This is why governments all around the world are worried. You hear the word "flu", and think: "oh, yeah, I know what the flu is like."
Well this flu is nothing like what you've seen before. Healthy 20 year olds could go out in the morning feeling perfectly healthy, and be coughing themselves to death in the street that same afternoon.

Every influenza we have had, since 1918, we have had some immunity to. This one we have no immunity to whatsoever. Because of this even getting vaccinated against it won't work, the first time. If you can get vaccinated at all, you will need 2 doses, preferably a month apart, to confer any immunity. And the vaccine needs a much higher dose than normal flu vaccination, making it harder to produce in any quantity.

It takes one egg, to produce one dose of vaccine, and for every egg used, a dozen simply go bad and have to be throw out. So imagine how many million eggs it would take to vaccinate America. And then imagine what happens if the hens catch bird-flu first and get wiped out.

There are cheap natural remedies that may help, and I'd advise everyone to check them out.

[hallc]

62. wow - thats interesting

considering i DID my homework - no use spreading lies when you don't know them to be true. And natural remedies will do nothing for the flu.

[Bridget Burke]

68. I also have little faith in natural remedies against influenza.

But links to your "homework" would help us all. I doubt the previous message is filled with lies; perhaps you can prove they are errors.

No doubt you are educated. Therefore, you know that papers in Peer Reviewed Journals provide plenty of references.

[Kailassa]

72. Thanks, Bridget. :-)

there are not many natural remedies I would trust in a situation like this either, you are wise to be skeptical. The recommendation I gave is entirely my own idea, I have not seen it recommended by anyone else. However I have spent many years studying and treating people with natural remedies, and I've carefully looked into solid research on the effects of bird-flu. Not in order to find a cure, just because I like to know everything, finding a hole in the disease's armor was simply fortuitous.

The beauty of my treatment is that it is cheap, easy to carry on you for emergency use, and it is not in opposition to medical treatment. I would certainly recommend you get treated immediately with anti-viral medication if you do catch bird-flu, and get the immunization beforehand if it does become available. And you already know the importance of hygiene. :-)

Good luck if you end up needing it, but I sure hope we don't.

[Kailassa]

70. Calling a person a liar leaves you in danger of looking very stupid.

Unlike most strains of influenza, it often struck strong, young individuals more severely than other demographic groups. It could strike incredibly quickly with symptoms of a brief fever followed abruptly by death. Pneumonia, the usual secondary cause of death related to influenza, often did not have a chance to develop because the virus killed so quickly. It caused an uncontrollable hemorrhaging that filled the lungs, leaving victims to drown in their own body fluids.

http://arcweb.sos.state.or.us/exhibits/war/ww1/flu.html

When patients did develop pneumonia, it was often a fast progression from the initial illness, indicating that it was the influenza virus itself causing the pneumonia, and not a bacterial infection. With this sort of pneumonia, having had the pneumonia vaccine is no help, and there are drugs to treat the infection.

Now hallc, would you like proof of the fact that people are thought to have died due to the overactivity of their own immune systems, or are you capable of looking that up for yourself?

Regarding natural remedies, tea-tree oil has a strong anti-viral effect at very low concentrations. The avian influenza virus prefers to colonize the cilia of the lungs, leaving it vulnerable to inhaled anti-virals. Tea-tree oil can easily be inhaled as a steam inhalation, or using a nebilizer, atomizer, or humidifier.

[hallc]

74. Have you researched the incidence of

influenza deaths in people who already had pulmonary tuberculosis, which was a common disease at the time?

[Ms. Clio]

75. Google "cytokine storm"

Here, I'll help you:

(snip)

The study was carried out by researchers from Imperial College London and published in the Journal of Experimental Medicine.

They investigated the influenza A virus - the type responsible for pandemics such as the 1919 Spanish flu outbreak which killed more than 20 million people worldwide - and developed a way of eliminating symptoms in mice by reducing the response of active T white blood cells by one third. Some experts believe that it is the body's response and not the virus that causes the damage. By reducing the body's response, it is hoped that the harmful effects of flu will be reduced too.

(snip)

The body's immune system consists of two major types of white blood cells: T and B cells. B cells produce tailor-made antibodies that help the body remember and quickly respond to invaders, and T cells are responsible for patrolling the body, seeking out and destroying diseased cells.

When the lungs are infected with the flu virus, the T cells release chemical signals that cause them to stay longer in the lungs. However, more T cells are always arriving, and they in turn release more signal and stay longer in the cells, leading to a build up of T cells and chemical signals. This is called a "cytokine storm" and it is thought that this causes damage to the lungs.

Senior author of the paper, Dr. Tracy Hussell, from Imperial's Centre for Molecular Microbiology and Infection, said, "During flu infection the immune system has an 'all hands on deck' attitude to the viral assault. But it's this that causes most of the damage. The exaggerated immune response produces inflammatory molecules that lead to what's known as a 'cytokine storm'. Essentially too many cells clog up the airways and prevent efficient transfer of oxygen into the bloodstream."

http://www.bupa.co.uk/health_information/html/health_news/281003flu.html

[Bridget Burke]

87. No. Have you?

Please supply data to support your statement.

[tavalon]

80. You haven't done nearly as much homework

as kailassa has.

A discussion of "natural remedies" aside, the poster was dead on with everything he/she said.

[kestrel91316]

108. IIRC cytokine storm and not secondary bacterial infection is what

does the really rapid killing in flu.

.........not that bacterial pneumonia won't also be a big problem, especially once the health care system gets completely overwhelmed.........

[Bridget Burke]

54. Many 1918-19 victims were young & healthy.

And some died quite suddenly; not a sign of secondary infection.

How would the health-care system deal with large numbers of people needing hospital care for their secondary infections?

[northzax]

58. but they were living in awful circumstances

most of the young men who died were in the military, living in cramped barracks, in close contact, 24/7 with other people and no real sanitation. that is no longer the case, at least in many places. The beauty of the flu is that you get sick, but no sick enough to be really debilitating. so people go to work, and the store, and everywhere else, thinking they have to. H5N1 doesn't leave the people it infects to the point of symptoms with that problem, people get hospitalised or cannot leave their beds. The risk of passing on the contaigen, when it's that virulent, is actually much lower.

[gkhouston]

64. not all of the young 1918 victims were in the military

nor were all of the victims living in squalid conditions. There seems to be a mindset that a serious pandemic can't affect us here and now because we have antibiotics and "better sanitation" than existed in 1918 or than exists in parts of third world countries. Many of the flu victims in Asia died after receiving good medical care in hospitals.

The virulence of a flu strain may not be strongly correlated with how many people you're likely to infect since you're contagious before the onset of symptoms. Unless you're a traveling salesman or someone else who encounters a widely different group of people each day, the risk of contagion would be about the same no matter how sick you felt once the symptoms appeared.

[northzax]

66. antibiotics, of course

would only be helpful on secondary infections. And yes, for every virus that has created a pandemic, it was bred to virulency in confined conditions. It may not be a hard and fast rule, but it's certainly a guideline to keep in mind.

Look, H5N1 may well be the next pandemic virus, but let's not get our knickers in a twist until something actually happens, ok?

[tavalon]

81. While knicker twisting isn't a good idea most of the time

making a plan right about now is. Waiting until a pandemic is in full swing is about a month too late.

[Bridget Burke]

67. Even "regular" influenza is somewhat debilitating.

Many who think they had flu only had a bad cold.

[Bridget Burke]

69. Soldiers were not the only young people who died.

A characteristic feature of influenza epidemiology has historically been that the burden of excess mortality in interpandemic seasons occurs primarily in older age groups, whereas the burden in pandemic seasons shifts disproportionately to younger ages.

www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/pnas;102/31/11059

Is it OK if people in "awful circumstances" are more likely to die?

[gkhouston]

71. sure, 'cause we're not the ones in the awful circumstances

doncha get it? All the dyin' is happening at a safe distance... ain't no flu comin' 'round here. :sarcasm:

[hallc]

73. did any of us say it was ok?

we were just stating that back then it was more due to secondary infection, close quarters, lack of knowledge of the disease itself, poor hygeine, people who already had tuberculosis, and so on.

[Bridget Burke]

88. YOU were stating all these things.

Please supply data to support your statements.

[Taverner]

43. This, like any virus, can be stopped by preventing exposure

Like SARS, and other airborne virii....you can take steps to prevent this should it mutate, and should it get to the US.

1 - Wash your hands before touching your face. Washing hands is the BEST prevention. Better than Tamiflu, better than any other method. Consider getting a small bottle of disinfectant lotion at your desk. Use it regularly.

2- If it does reach the US, wear a dust mask in public. This will prevent airborne virii from getting in your lungs and nose.

[Felix Mala]

53. Hopefully, the worst it will be is North America gets a two-week

vacation in January. I've been saving my vacation days. I plan to sit at home and put together jigsaw puzzles. And if any mutants come to my door, I'll blast 'em.

[The_Casual_Observer]

76. And last year it was sars or something.

[tavalon]

82. And therefore this isn't anything either

Bad logic.

[leesa]

94. Get a grip folks. It's fearmongering.

[arikara]

100. Thankyou... of course it is

they want everyone all wound up and afraid. People stopped being afraid of the colour coded terra drills and white powder sprinklings so now they're working on pandemics and martial law.

Take a deep breath and relax. Giving in to fear helps to manifest whatever it is that you are afraid of.

[Kailassa]

101. leesa, it's hardly surprising that you see it this way ...

when you have got so used to a government which for the last 5 years has used fear to manipulate the population. I've lost count of the fake bomb alerts. Your also aware of Bush's desire to find an excuse to enforce martial law, and how a serious flu scare right now would be playing into his hands.

However, if you look at what's happening outside America right now, you'll see that every country with the ability to is gearing up to be ready for this. At the moment in Australia a vaccine to the form of H5N1 that has jumped from person to person is being produced in sufficient quantity to have enough to vaccinate all 20 million Australians twice over in a matter of weeks. And a place to manufacture Relenza, (another anti-viral) is being built there. Japan is doing likewise, and the H5N1 vaccination is presently being tested on hundreds of people in both countries. Norway has ordered vaccinations for everyone in that country. England is stockpiling huge amounts of anti-virals in readiness. The U.N. has already been working for years to encourage a world-wide state of readiness.

Now these are just a few examples out of many more I could have given. There is no air of panic in any of these countries, people are simply taking precautions with the attitude of making sure there in a good umbrella handy for when it rains.

As I mentioned earlier, I've worked out a simple method that I believe will help. I've made sure my family have it on hand, and
we will be making use of any medical help that is offered too. But I'm not losing sleep over it, I've done what I can, now life goes on as happily as usual.

I'm not posting here to tell you to panic, I'm posting because I care about you and the others here, and I believe that the more knowlege you have, the better you are able to protect yourself. Don't forget that pharmaceuticals are often based on natural remedies. There are natural things that can help, but if you are interested in them you need time to research then yourself first, as there is far more bullshit than truth aired in that area.

One worthwhile precaution I would recoment to anyone who can manage it is to have some form of "no-touch" tap installed in their bathroom. Being able to wash your hands without then recontaminating them by touching the taps afterwards is a great boon to hygiene, and is worth having even if this flu does not eventuate.

Remember Katrina. Buschco were delighted to use it to further their own interests, it's convenience to them did not stop it happening. For a long time beforehand there were warnings that, going by the laws of chance, that hurricane was almost certain to happen. All they needed to do to benefit from it was not take adequate precautions beforehand. This is exactly the same situation. Adequate precautions are not being taken by the American gov't, and I'm sure Buschco are quite happy that people are left confused. Confusion easily leads to ignorance or fear, and once we let either of those happen, Buschco has won.

[Alien8shon]

99. I've seen it.

And it's a mean mother.

No shit.

It jumps species like a cricket - one move and very, very fast. It's not got any limitation on traveling human-to-human. And there is a precedent: Pneumonic plague.

And establishing Gitmo quarantine stations in Amerika ain't gonna affect the spread or the outcome, at all.

But, oddly enough, it's this government's very first preference.

Bizarre.

[cantstandbush]

103. So, will this stop immigration from Turkey, Romania, and Asia?

Will travelers have to be tested before entering the US? Talk about a need to protect our borders. Al-qaeda has nothing on this bird flu.

[Kailassa]

105. You would have to stop all casual travel ...

into America to make that worthwhile. Immigrants are only a very small proportion of travellers who could carry the virus into the country. Even then, people would be more eager than ever to get into America illegally, and I doubt the borders can be thoroughly closed. And it's always remotely possible that the virus could make the dreaded big jump within America itself.

There is too much to lose in cutting off travel without the need being very large and immediate.

[Dem2theMax]

104. All I ask is, if I am going to die from bird flu,

that I live long enough to see * and his evil administration go down. Then I can die happily.

[Darranar]

111. Yes, it probably is.

And since our society prioritizes short-term profit before saving lives, it is likely to remain so.