STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 25 October

[ozymandius]

Tuesday October 25, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 89 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1769 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1468 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1430
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 24, 2005

Dow... 10,385.00 +169.78 (+1.66%)
Nasdaq... 2,115.83 +33.62 (+1.61%)
S&P 500... 1,199.38 +19.79 (+1.68%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.45% +0.06 (+1.28%)
Gold future... 467.00 -2.10 (-0.45%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

CHANGING OF THE GUARD

Today, President Bush named Ben Bernanke, pending confirmation by the Senate, to replace Fed. Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan when he completes his term at the end of this coming January, 2006. This would be the same Ben Bernanke who suggested he could and would “drop money from helicopters” if the economy were in serious jeopardy of slipping into deflation.

Mr. Bernanke currently serves as Chairman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors – a White House posting he assumed in June of this year after serving a stint as Fed. Governor - from Aug. 02.

Bernanke has been described by many in the main stream media as “an academic” economist. From his White House bio, we can clearly see that Mr. Bernanke has attended the right schools and based on his present position – he clearly knows his way around Washington and politics.

-cut-

With Sir Alan set to retire and ride off into the sunset, Mr. Bernanke’s words will no doubt come under increasing scrutiny, going forward, and his words and thought will most likely be taken to be expressly those of the Fed.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Maverick freethinker must adapt to life as new Fed chairman

Although Ben Bernanke was considered the frontrunner to replace Alan Greenspan at the helm of the Federal Reserve, he has established a reputation as an intellectual provocateur rather than a policy leader.

Despite leaving academia three years ago he has continued to behave more like an academic than a policy maker.

On joining the Federal Reserve in 2002 he soon became seen as a one-man ideas factory, whose views were occasionally at odds with Mr Greenspan's. This freethinking endeared him to investors and bankers who have become used to a high degree of caution from the Fed. But it has made some wonder how he will cope with the transition from the outsider to the institution's leader.

-cut-

He could have been forgiven a degree of trepidation when he was picked as a Fed governor in 2002. His friend and fellow Princeton economist, Alan Blinder, had lasted only two years as Fed vice-chairman and had retreated to academia after disagreements with Mr Greenspan. Surprisingly, Mr Bernanke's vibrant thinking was more tolerated at the Fed. In 2004 he said: "My thought was that a big part of my contribution would be as an educator, an ideas guy. No one within the Fed has either tried to co-ordinate me or told me to shut up."

more

[54anickel]

57. Do you think Bernanke's appoinment was another example of Shrub

"going it alone"? Kohn was Greenspin's favorite and Greenspin and Cheney are pretty close buds. I wonder if this wasn't Bush having another tantrum and "I did it my way" moment. Maybe everyone has abandoned the "lil' idgit" to his own devices, like what's depicted in today's toon?

[54anickel]

59. Remember this one from his CNBC interview?

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Random+Walk&content_idx=47432

snip>

So when Ben Bernanke, one of the front runners to replace Alan Greenspan as Fed chairman was talking about housing prices on CNBC recently, no doubt many highly-leveraged Americans were hoping to hear a calming voice give them the courage to peek out from under the covers and face the implosion of the giant housing/mortgage bubble head on.



"House prices have gone up a lot," Bernanke said.



He even said there were reasons that housing prices had gone up a lot, and that they were good reasons. Because housing prices don’t often go up a lot, it’s encouraging that Bernanke found some good reasons for their levitation. Just last summer the Economist reminded us that when professor Robert Shiller looked at American home price data, Shiller found that housing prices rose on average just 0.4% a year in real terms from 1890 through 2004. So when Bernanke says, “House prices have gone up a lot” lately, it’s a pretty big deal.



In the interview, Bernanke also doubted that housing prices would ever go back down.



"We've never had a decline in housing prices on a nationwide basis," Bernanke said, intimating that a drop property values is about as likely as FOX stealing programming ideas from the History Channel.



And that is exactly the no-nonsense kind of rhetoric we like to hear from a Fed Chairman-in-the-Running, and it’s just the inspiration needed to persuade Americans with giant home equity loans that they can raise the blanket enough to let light in under the covers. That’s the case even though when Benanke says “never,” as in “We’ve never had a decline in housing prices,” he’s using “Fed Speak” which really means, “We’ve never had a decline in housing prices since the Depression.” Still, a little comfort is better than all encompassing paranoia accompanied by bouts of itching.

[wordpix]

80. how could he forget the early '90s

when housing prices went signficantly down, at least in the Northeast?

[54anickel]

60. Bernanke – On the Road to Disaster? (Lots of links to Chopper Ben tales)

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=336

Ben Bernanke, current chairman of the administration’s council of economic advisors, is President Bush’s nominee to succeed Alan Greenspan as chairman of the Federal Reserve. We believe will see more fine tuning of monetary policy with potentially negative implications for the dollar. We have extensively commented on Bernanke for over a year:


Bernanke is a support of managing the entire yield curve. See Is a Dollar Crisis Looming? (October 10, 2005); see also The Modern Command Economy: the 30-Year Bond is Returning (August 4, 2005)

Bernanke is a supply side economist. See Greenspan: "We can guarantee Cash, but we cannot guarantee purchasing power!” (February 16, 2005)


In my view, Bernanke uses communication seeking to manage expectations in lieu of transparency. See The Fed Embraces Public Perception in Place of Sound Monetary Policy (April 18, 2005)


We comment on how Ben Bernanke is getting more influential in The Emperor's New Clothes (October 6, 2004), and forecast that he will succeed Greenspan in Fed May Not Stop Inflation (August 18, 2005)


We believe Bernanke promoted the plan to hand out $2,000 to hurricane victims. It is an indication of more micro-management to come. See China Is Open for Business: Will China’s growth eliminate inflation? (September 21, 2005)


Let us not wrap up a discussion about “Helicopter Ben” without a reference to his infamous comments that throwing money out of helicopters. See China's Basket of Currencies (July 26, 2005).

[54anickel]

66. Inflation not picking up: Bernanke

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/051025/economy_fed_bernanke_inflation.html?.v=1

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures are likely to remain confined to the energy sector, and fiscal and monetary policy remains accommodative, Federal Reserve chairman nominee Ben Bernanke said in a newspaper interview published on Tuesday.

The Times newspaper said the interview was conducted last week before President George W. Bush announced on Monday that Bernanke was his pick to succeed current Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan.

Bernanke said that there was so far little reason to fear that the sharp rise in energy prices would feed through into wider inflation.

"The evidence seems to be that it is primarily in energy and some raw materials and has not fed into broader inflation measures or expectations," the Times quoted him as saying.

"My anticipation is that's the way it's going to stay."

[54anickel]

71. Misreading Bernanke

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/texashedge/texashedge102505.html

So it finally happened. On a chilly Monday morning in October, news surfaced that the nomination of Ben Bernanke as new Fed chairman was imminent. Immediately, the stock market rallied as the selection of the Wall Street-friendly Bernanke (who was the odds-on favorite) was seen as a positive development. Likewise, the Dollar dropped slightly and the precious metals edged up as most traders recalled Bernanke as the monetary dove who once declared that the U.S. Government could prevent deflation because the Fed/Treasury can "helicopter" money in to stimulate the economy. Likewise, his musings about "a technology called the printing press" have sent hearts racing in today's momentum driven equity markets and emboldened U.S. Dollar bears to know that however bad Greenspan was, Bernanke is likely to be worse. You see, Greenie followed a central banking legend in Paul Volcker, but at least the economy was fundamentally sound when it was handed over in 1987. In contrast, Helicopter Ben, whether he comprehends it or not, is inheriting a fundamentally flawed economy in early 2006. The mind-numbingly large credit and debt imbalances that have been stoked over Greenspan's 18 years will in all likelihood be unraveled sometime fairly early on in Bernanke's tenure.

According to Briefing.com, the Bernanke announcement "dispelled uncertainty over the Fed Chairman's successor a couple of months earlier than investors had anticipated, and Bernanke's stated intention of maintaining continuity during the transition, as well as a confirmation that Greenspan will remain Fed Head until the official end of his 18 year term in January, seemed to relieve stock investors."

So what are we to make of the market's reaction to the Bernanke announcement? Not much. Actually, we wouldn't be surprised if the investing public is misreading Bernanke. Think about it, a new Fed Chairman's immediate priority is always to establish credibility as a rock-solid central banker willing to maintain political independence. It would be foolish for Bernanke to give into political pressure early in his term by reversing the Fed's direction on interest rates. Yet there has been dissension among the ranks of FOMC members (votes haven't been unanimous lately) and we really don't know what Bernanke will do. Frankly, long-term investors shouldn't loose any sleep over trying to predict interest rates over the short term. Instead, investors should be focused on the consequences of Alan Greenspan "the icon" being replaced by Ben Bernanke "the unknown".

The most important element of our financial system today is confidence. While he lacks charisma, Alan Greenspan is the perfect confidence artist. He is everything an all-powerful central banker should be: boring, elderly, brainy, long-winded, and most importantly LUCKY. Easy Al has been able to paper over all of the U.S.' problems over the last decade or so and to date a drunken U.S. economy has yet to feel the real hangover. There was Mexico in '94, Asian Meltdown/LTCM in '98, Y2K, and the Internet bubble bursting/911 from '00-'02 where Greenspan (frightened at the thought of a normal recession and the accompanying political fallout it might bring) did everything in his power to try and avert the business cycle. Whether it be by lowering the price of money (interest rates) or ramping up the availability of credit through monetary supply increases and the prompting of GSEs and banks to stimulate lending, Alan Greenspan has perpetuated a recession-less economy mentality that will ultimately lead to the mother of all recessions when the giant U.S. real estate bubble he created pops slowing our heavily-levered consumption-driven country and sparking a nasty time in America. Bernanke will be the man in charge of trying to put Humpty Dumpty back together again.

more...

[ozymandius]

3. Crude Oil Prices Dip to $60.25 a Barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil futures fell Tuesday on the expectation that a midweek U.S. petroleum supply report will show gains in crude stockpiles, a day after Hurricane Wilma missed platforms and refineries in the Gulf of Mexico.

-cut-

A weekly U.S. petroleum inventories report due Wednesday from the federal Energy Information Administration is expected to show crude stocks rose last week, boosted by increased imports and refineries that were still operating at a relatively low rate, analysts said.

-cut-

"Crude stocks should show a sizable increase as an expected further recovery in imports toward 10 million barrels a day more than negates the impact of additional refinery restarts," says Jim Ritterbusch of Ritterbusch & Associates.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Consumers Could Face Price Spikes at Pump

NEW YORK - While the most dire predictions have been largely dismissed as alarmist — gasoline prices in the U.S. of up to $6 a gallon and crude oil climbing to $105 a barrel in 2007 — analysts warn consumers could face new price spikes and won't soon be returning to pump prices that propelled the popularity of gas-guzzling SUVs.

The consensus is that the era of cheap oil for U.S. consumers, accustomed to some of the lowest prices in the industrialized world, is over, at least for the next few years.

"We have very little spare capacity internationally to provide enough crude oil to the system to tolerate any more of these types of disruptions," said Ken Miller, an analyst with the Houston-based consultancy Purvin & Gertz.

-cut-

Analysts and economists have indicated that high global energy prices could dampen demand in the coming year. But by dampen, they mean that demand will continue to grow by a robust average of 1.8 percent over the next couple of years, according to the EIA's Short Term Energy Outlook released this month.

more

[UpInArms]

37. Dec Crude @ $61.10 bbl - Nov NatGas @ $13.46 mln btus

10:01am 10/25/05 DEC CRUDE CLIMBS 78C TO $61.10/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:01am 10/25/05 NOV NATURAL GAS UP 45.6C, OR 3.5%, AT $13.46/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

52. Dec Crude @ $61.35 bbl - Nov NatGas @ $13.85 mln btus

11:38am 10/25/05 DEC CRUDE UP $1.03, OR 1.7%, AT $61.35/BRL

11:38am 10/25/05 NOV NATURAL GAS JUMPS 84.6C, OR 6.5%, TO $13.85/MLN BTUS

11:38am 10/25/05 NOV HEATING OIL UP 3.3%; NOV UNLEADED GAS UP 1.5%

[UpInArms]

83. Nov NatGas up 10.3% @ record $14.338 mln btus

3:28pm 10/25/05 NATURAL-GAS FUTURES MARK A RECORD CLOSE

3:28pm 10/25/05 NOV NATURAL GAS ENDS AT RECORD $14.338/MLN BTUS, UP 10.3%

3:28pm 10/25/05 NOV NATURAL GAS INTRADAY RECORD STANDS AT $14.75 FROM OCT 5

[ozymandius]

5. Today's Reports

10:00 AM Consumer Confidence for October
Briefing Forecast 85.5
Market Expects 88.0
Prior 86.6

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales for September
Briefing Forecast 7.20M
Market Expects 7.20M
Prior 7.29M

[UpInArms]

34. Reports in: Consumer Confidence "unexpectedly" falls

10:01am 10/25/05 U.S. SEPT. MEDIAN HOME PRICE UP 13.4% YEAR-OVER-YEAR

10:00am 10/25/05 U.S. SEPT. EXISTING HOME INVENTORIES UP 0.3%

10:00am 10/25/05 U.S. SEPT. EXISTING HOME SALES FLAT AT 7.28 MILLLION PACE

9:59am 10/25/05 WEAK CONFIDENCE MAY IMPACT HOLIDAY SALES - CONFERENCE BOARD

9:59am 10/25/05 U.S. OCT. CONFIDENCE DROP UNEXPECTED BY ECONOMISTS

9:59am 10/25/05 U.S. OCT. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE FALLS TO 85.0 VS REV 87.5 SEPT

(edited to correct line item)

[UpInArms]

35. U.S. consumer confidence falls to 85.0 in Oct vs 87.5 Sept.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38650.4166610995-847439280&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer confidence failed to rebound in October after a sharp drop in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, the Conference Board said Tuesday. The consumer confidence index fell to 85.0 in October from a revised 87.5 in September. Confidence had fallen from 105.5 in August after Katrina slammed into the Gulf Coast, sending gasoline prices skyrocketing. Economists expected the index to improve to 88.2 in October from the initial estimate of 86.6 in September as gas prices fell from high levels and the impact of the storms became clearer. But the present situation index fell to 108.2 from 110.4, and the expectations index slipped to 69.5 from 72.3. Weak confidence could hurt holiday sales, the Conference Board said, unless retailers slash prices to lure customers to stores.

[UpInArms]

44. Economic Report: Confidence falls unexpectedly in Oct.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA81613F5%2DE333%2D40A0%2DA9C8%2DA1BD2836AF60%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer confidence appears to have been severely damaged by the aftermath of the two hurricanes that hit the Gulf Coast in August and September, the Conference Board said Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index fell to 85.0 in October from a revised 87.5 in September. Read full survey.

The decline was unexpected. Economists had forecast the index to increase to 88.2, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch. See Economic Calendar.

Confidence had fallen from 105.5 in August after gasoline prices skyrocketed after Katrina came ashore on Aug. 29.

The present situation index fell to 108.2 from 110.4, and the expectations index slipped to 69.5 from 72.3.

Weak confidence could hurt holiday sales, the Conference Board said, unless retailers slash prices to lure customers to stores.

"This degree of pessimism, in conjunction with the anticipation of much higher home heating bills this winter, may take some cheer out of the upcoming holiday season," said Lynn Franco, director of the The Conference Board Consumer Research Center.

...more...

[AnneD]

49. I declare...

My eyes are going to be permanently fixated to the back of my skull if I read about one more 'suprised' economist. I mean really, how many times can you roll your eyes in one day (after puberty of course). :eyes:

[barb162]

75. Great minds think alike.

Too bad they aren't surprised about the Bush tax cuts not generating the 200,000+ jobs a month Bush was promising back in his first term. Too bad they never bring it up anymore.

[AnneD]

78. Hi barb162

:hi: Good one. I guess they don't bring it up because after a point, the lies become so transparent that anyone that is not blind and has half a brain can figure it out.

[UpInArms]

38. Sept. existing home sales flat at 7.28 million

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38650.421706169-847440307&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)-- Sales of U.S. existing homes were unchanged in September at a 7.28 million seasonally adjusted annual rate, the second highest rate ever, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. Sales would have been weaker without the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which prompted heavy buying outside damaged regions as firms rushed to relocate key employees, said David Lereah, chief economist for the real estate group. Median sales prices increased 13.4% versus a year ago to $212,000. Inventories of homes for sale increased 0.3% to 2.85 million, a 4.7-month supply.

[UpInArms]

39. Aug Existing Home Sales revised lower - making Sept "flat"

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-25T140555Z_01_N25238393_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-EXISTINGHOMES-URGENT.XML

excerpt:

Sales of previously owned homes were flat compared with August's downwardly revised 7.28 million unit pace, the National Association of Realtors said. That figure includes both single-family homes and condominiums.

Sales would have been lower in September without the strong purchase activity reported for areas around the hurricane-impacted zone, the Realtors' chief economist said. For example, while sales dropped 85 percent in New Orleans, Baton Rouge reported a 150 percent increase, the group said.

...more...

[bemildred]

36. Marketwatch: CCI == 85.0 nt

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.75 Change -0.36 (-0.40%)

Dollar Goes Nowhere Fast

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4404&Itemid=39

Trader’s Outlook:

The tighter the range the more violent the breakout will be, the question is which direction the majors will move. This trader thinks the majors are due for a retrace, but given the recent selling pressure, the breakout against the dollar will force a lot of covering, further adding to the move.

<snip>

EUR/USD – Euro bulls continued to see-saw around the psychologically important 1.2000 handle as the pair continued to trade within a tight trading range that dominated the price action for the past few trading sessions. In case euro bulls manage to establish the control over the price action, a next move to the upside will most likely see the single currency longs test the dollar defenses above the 1.2000 handle at 1.2013, a level marked by the October 17 daily high. A further move to the upside will most likely see the pair head higher and take on the greenback defenses around 1.2100 handle, with a further move to the upside encountering a 50-day SMA at 1.2163. Indicators are favoring the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and negative MACD below the zero line, while neutral oscillators give either side enough room to maneuver.

<snip>

USD/JPY – Japanese Yen longs remained virtually unchanged as the price action became nonexistent with the pair treading sideways in 115.00-116.00 trading range. A move below the psychologically important 115.00 handle will most likely see the pair head lower and test the greenback defenses around 114.35, a level established by the 20-day SMA. A further move to the downside will most likely see the pair head toward the 113.20, a level marked by the 23.6 Fib of the 104.17-115.99 USD rally. Indicators remain supportive of the dollar longs with both momentum indicator and MACD treading above the zero line, with ADX above 25 at 27.42 signaling an existence of a trend not a direction of one, while overbought Stochastic gives the yen longs a chance to retaliate.

...more...

The Bernanke Question:

from his November 1, 2002 speech:

What has this got to do with monetary policy? Like gold, U.S. dollars have value only to the extent that they are strictly limited in supply. But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation.

and an article today:

Bernanke doesn't see inflation picking up

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-25T091702Z_01_ROB453881_RTRUKOC_0_US-BUSH-FED.xml

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. inflation pressures are likely to remain confined to the energy sector, and fiscal and monetary policy is accommodative, Federal Reserve chairman nominee Ben Bernanke said in a newspaper interview published on Tuesday.

The Times newspaper said the interview was conducted last week before President George W. Bush announced on Monday that Bernanke was his pick to succeed current Fed chairman Alan Greenspan.

Bernanke said that there was so far little reason to fear that the sharp rise in energy prices would feed through into wider inflation.

<snip>

"The increase in (energy) costs consumers have to pay will be a drag on their disposable income," he was quoted as saying.

"But offsetting that we have a strong expansion going on, a lot of job creation; income growth is good and we still have accommodative fiscal and monetary policy picking up."

...more...

With that, are we to infer that Bernanke doesn't think in terms of inflation as it has been in the past? Does he see "positive inflation" and therefor a reason to "inject" more dollars into the system via the "printing press"?

I guess the only way we will know, is to watch the M3 very closely and see.

[strizi64]

8. USD slumps vs. Swiss Franc

http://isht.comdirect.de/charts/big.chart?hist=1d&ind0=VOLUME&&lSyms=CHFUS.FX1&lColors=0x000000&sSym=CHFUS.FX1&hcmask=

thx Ben

[UpInArms]

26. peeking at the slumping dollar

Last trade 89.57 Change -0.54 (-0.60%)

Settle 90.11 Settle Time 23:38

Open 90.12 Previous Close 90.11

High 90.35 Low 89.55

[UpInArms]

54. dollar under the 89.50 resistance point

Last trade 89.23 Change -0.88 (-0.98%)

Settle 90.11 Settle Time 23:38

Open 90.12 Previous Close 90.11

High 90.35 Low 89.15

[Changenow]

88. Strange, it usually gives something back

Maybe tomorrow.

[UpInArms]

31. "Chopper" Ben affecting the dollar/gold

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38650.408130625-847437810&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold is up $7.30 at $474.30 an ounce in early dealings, trading at its highest level in a week on the heels of weakness in the U.S. dollar. While it might be "premature" to judge Federal Reserve Chairman-designate Ben Bernanke as "one who favors inflation targeting, the foreign exchange markets apparently think he is less concerned with budget deficits -- and that could be why the dollar has sagged and in turn yielded some minor support to gold," Nell Sloane, an analyst at NSFutures.com said in daily commentary.

[54anickel]

65. Zowie, achieving new lows

Last trade 89.23 Change -0.88 (-0.98%)

Settle 90.11 Settle Time 23:38

Open 90.12 Previous Close 90.11

High 90.35 Low 89.15

Last tick: 2005-10-25 12:44:59 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

69. The Dollar, Gold and Stagflation - Greenspan's Conundrum

http://www.merkfund.com/merk-perspective/insights/2005-10-24-2.html

snip>

But why are long-term interest rates so low then. Is it the foreign purchases of US debt? They are a factor in holding long rates down, but let us keep in mind that foreign governments tend to purchase mostly shorter-dated maturities. What about corporate America as a buyer of longer-dated debt securities? While the US consumer is heavily in debt, corporate America has amassed enormous amounts of cash after cleaning up its balance sheets – many US corporations are now adding to the demand rather than supply in the fixed income markets as they manage their cash.

We believe there is another story behind the low rates of longer securities that is all too obvious: the US economy is slowing down. But there is a difference: after all, we had GDP growing at 3.3% in the 2nd quarter – not exactly a sign of a stalling economy. One can argue that GDP is overstated because of inflation, and that an economy that must offer “employee discounts” to sell cars is in trouble. We would like to take it a step further. We had one airline after another declare bankruptcy; now the world’s largest automotive supplier, Delphi, has declared bankruptcy. General Motors and Ford are likely bankruptcy candidates. What is happening is that corporations cannot pass costs on to consumers. Greenspan has been arguing that prices have to rise at some point because of costs being passed on. Stagflation advocates have said that wage pressure will build. What is different from the 1970s is that we now have Asia at our doorstep flooding us with cheap goods. The analysis cannot stop there. We believe that companies that cannot adapt will simply disappear (or kept alive with subsidies or protectionism). If you are a European exporter and cannot pass on your higher costs and lower margins due to a strong Euro, you might just vanish.

The Greenspan conundrum unplugged means: Our low long-term interest rates suggest that we are going to lose entire industries in the looming economic downturn. Industries that cannot adapt quickly enough to our global economy will be wiped out; cutting expenses is important for them, but will not be enough, as no developed country can compete with the cost of labor in Asia. Instead these companies must focus on superior value. Some European firms have long embraced a luxury brand model; but that may not be enough if these firms do not control their distribution channels. As an example, Safeway dictates what the cost of a six-pack of beer is. If you can’t meet that price, there will be others that will.

There are a number of reasons why it is so much more difficult to pass on higher costs these days. Much of it has to do with Asia over-producing goods as a result of their subsidized exchange rates. Asia believes that it must generate economic growth at all cost to provide jobs and political stability. The result is a surge in world commodity prices (we had high commodity prices before the hurricanes) and low consumer goods. In addition, take a US consumer that is heavily in debt, and you end up with very little pricing power. Corporate America is squeezed by both high raw material prices and a lack of pricing power, resulting in accelerated outsourcing. US policy makers have added to this vicious cycle with low taxes and low interest rates. What US policy has done is to accelerate a cycle to the point where the transition is too fast for old economy companies to keep up.

more...

[UpInArms]

7. Dealers terminate $720 bln of Delphi-related CDS (Credit Derivative Swaps)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-25T092133Z_01_L25564440_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-DERIVATIVES-TRIOPTIMA.XML

LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - Some 21 dealers in credit derivatives have terminated over $720 billion of Delphi-related default swaps since the auto parts maker was declared bankrupt earlier this month, said netting service TriOptima on Tuesday.

About 70 percent of the total single name credit default swaps on Delphi (DPHIQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) ($23 billion notional) was netted off, while almost $700 billion notional in Delphi-related index swaps were terminated.

"In this case the dealers want to get rid of as many as possible because of the operations work that follows a bankruptcy," said Hans Patyne, global head of sales and marketing at TriOptima. "Given the capital cost of maintaining large portfolios the dealers are keen to use this."

By reducing credit default swap portfolios through early cancellation, dealers eliminate the legal and administrative costs of a bankruptcy.

Regulators have criticised banks and hedge funds for failing to introduce the necessary back office systems to deal with the fast growing market in credit derivatives, which hit $12.4 trillion by the end of June, according to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. J.C. Flowers drops out of Refco bidding war

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-24T223712Z_01_N24299140_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-UPDATE-4.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Private equity firm J.C. Flowers & Co. on Monday withdrew its bid for the futures brokerage business of bankrupt Refco Inc. (RFXCQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) as five other suitors joined the race and pushed the purchase price up by nearly $100 million.

The firm, led by former Goldman Sachs banker Christopher Flowers, pulled its bid after a U.S. bankruptcy judge said he would only approve of the unit's proposed sale to Flowers for $768 million if it sharply reduced a break-up fee.

Flowers' withdrawal has left U.S. broker-dealer Interactive Brokers Group with the highest known offer on the table after it raised its bid on Monday to about $858 million to top a new bid worth $828 million from a Dubai-U.S. group.

"We are very anxious to talk to the debtor. We are anxious to acquire this company," said Arthur Hahn, an attorney with Katten Muchin Rosenman LLP, co-counsel for Interactive Brokers Group.

The development came after a fast-moving day in the U.S. bankruptcy court in lower Manhattan where a judge had been expected to rule on a tentative sales agreement signed between Refco and a group led by J.C. Flowers more than a week ago.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. The $10.5 Billion REFCO Smoking Gun?

http://faulkingtruth.com/Articles/Investing101/1041.html

(Article correction: Oct. 24, 2005. Upon further analysis of REFCO's balance sheet, and with thanks to Dave Patch for bringing it to our attention, Bob O'Brien has updated this commentary to correct some errors in his original article. As he put it "it was good late night rhetoric, but overstated. I've tempered the piece to reflect early morning analysis." We humbly apologize for any misleading information that might have been originally printed.

Note to SEC: Pay close attention here. If you make a mistake, you take responsibility for it, acknowledge it publicly, apologize to those who might have been misled, and take immediate action to correct it. See how that works?)

(Editor's note: Thanks to Bob O'Brien for putting the REFCO meltdown and pending bankruptcy into perspective. We've been telling the world about this massive scandal for over a year and a half, and in fact, said that it could be "the biggest financial scandal in the history of the world" in June of 2004, and now the major media has just "discovered" the issue, as if by magic. So what else is new?

In our opinion, REFCO is not the tip of the iceberg in this issue, it's nothing more than an ice cube floating in a sea of icebergs. I wonder if Dateline regrets selling their souls to the corporate devil and sitting on the naked short selling story for over a year, or if Senator Richard Shelby, who killed the Senate Banking Committee hearing on stock counterfeiting, is beginning to squirm in his Big Business owned suit? I hope so.)The listing for the assets and liabilities of REFCO was just made available, and guess what just happens to be hiding in the liabilities column?

A $10.5 billion liability, at TODAY's mark to market valuation, called "Securities sold, not yet purchased."

$10,590,379,000 - to be precise.

Securities that have been sold. But haven't been bought. And they haven't been borrowed, either - see item 3 below.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. some other very interesting parts

appear in this article:

This is going to be the biggest crisis to hit Wall Street in our generation. Mark my words. Cat's out of the bag now. And the SEC and Wall Street have some explaining to do. And some stock to buy, seems like.

If you've been wondering why your stocks don't ever seem to go up much, you now have a likely answer. The system has been printing billions and billions and billions of dollars worth of shares and selling them with predatory, unbridled aggression.

The class action attorneys are going to go crazy over this. What do the other, larger brokerages have hiding in the back room? How much bigger can this get? Can anyone even guess at this point?

With REFCO, we have one of the known aggressors in the naked short selling game, now failed, its investors defrauded. We have financials that are a fiction. We have uncertainty over what their actual liabilities and assets are. We, in short, have no idea what was going on there.

[ozymandius]

33. Chopper Ben has the 'copter warming up.

Indeed, he may have two warming up on the pad -- just in case all those disnefranchised investors bearing torches and pitchforks get to the chopper before he does.

[AnneD]

42. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Thanks Ozy, UIA for staying on this story. I may not be able to sniff out the economic stories like you guys but I was all over the Plame story when it first hit because I knew the importance to our getting involved in Iraq and I recognized Rove's MO. Once it went to the Fitzgerald (Ashcroft requised himself), I had a small amount of hope. But now, here we are today and this week may finally bear some fruit.
From the posts, I am sure this WILL be the big story on Wall Street, and like Enron, will affect the small investor and their confidence in the market.

[54anickel]

47. E-E-E-E-E-K! Talk about a systemic risk! O. M. G. This is even worse

than some of the crap I dug up early on when this came out. This is a great article UIA. I wonder if they were using that Exemption 8 of the FOIA to hide this as well. I did a Google on it the other day and it seems Exemption 8 is being pulled out a lot these days - not just for the Fed and banks to hide behind anymore.

Maybe Cornyn and Leahy didn't take bill S.1181 enacting Section 8 far enough? They should look at some of the abuses of existing exemptions (like exemption 8 perhaps) :eyes:

http://www.usdoj.gov/oip/exemption8.htm

Exemption 8 of the FOIA protects matters that are "contained in or related to examination, operating, or condition reports prepared by, on behalf of, or for the use of an agency responsible for the regulation or supervision of financial institutions." (1)

This exemption received little judicial attention during the first dozen years of the FOIA's operation. The only significant decision during that period was M.A. Schapiro & Co. v. SEC, in which the District Court for the District of Columbia held that national securities exchanges and broker-dealers are not "financial institutions" within the meaning of the exemption. (2) Fourteen years later, after passage of the Government in the Sunshine Act (3) -- the legislative history of which broadly defines the term "financial institutions" -- that same court disavowed its early narrow interpretation of the term and held that stock exchanges qualify as "financial institutions" under Exemption 8. (4) As a result, subsequent attempts by FOIA requesters to have courts rely on the ruling in M.A. Schapiro have been unsuccessful. (5)

Instead, courts interpreting Exemption 8 have largely declined to restrict the "particularly broad, all-inclusive" scope of the exemption. (6) The Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit has led the way by declaring that "if Congress has intentionally and unambiguously crafted a particularly broad, all-inclusive definition, it is not function, even in the FOIA context, to subvert that effort." (7) As another court has stated: "Exemption 8 was intended by Congress -- and has been interpreted by courts -- to be very broadly construed." (8)



Section 8

http://cornyn.senate.gov/record_jc.cfm?id=238728

The justification for this provision is simple: Congress should not establish new secrecy provisions through secret means. If Congress is to establish a new exemption to FOIA, it should do so in the open and in the light of day. FOIA establishes a presumption of disclosure. But if documents are to be kept secret pursuant to a future act of Congress, as may sometimes be appropriate and necessary, we should at least make sure that that act of Congress itself not be undertaken in secret.

I want to be clear: This bill does not affect current law in any way, and it does not affect the Executive Branch in any direct way. It only applies to the process through which Congress must enact any FOIA exemption in the future. And for those who are interested in the technical aspects of this bill, I will just point out that this provision is modeled after other federal laws – such as the War Powers Resolution (50 U.S.C. § 1547(a)) and the Federal Vacancies Reform Act (5 U.S.C. § 3347) – which also require Congress to act in an explicit fashion in order to carry out particular objectives. Think of it as a direction to the courts – a canon of interpretation, advising on how to construe future acts of Congress.

[UpInArms]

14. BofA could face class-action lawsuits

http://www.kentucky.com/mld/charlotte/business/industries/12989514.htm

As one of the lead underwriters of faltering Refco Inc.'s stock offering, Bank of America Corp. is facing a new round of class-action shareholder lawsuits -- with more likely on the way.

The corporate implosion of the New York-based commodities and brokerage firm this month comes as Bank of America has worked to put shareholder lawsuits over Enron Corp. and WorldCom Inc. behind it.

In August, the Charlotte-based bank, along with investment houses such as Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse First Boston, helped Refco raise $583 million through a stock offering to investors. Now, only two months later, the firm is selling off assets in bankruptcy court.

At least a dozen lawsuits already have been filed accusing various parties, including Refco and its underwriters, of misleading investors about the firm's financial condition. A partner with Milberg Weiss last week told Reuters the well-known class-action law firm also was eyeing a suit against the underwriters.

<snip>

Besides aiding the stock offering, Bank of America is also a secured lender to Refco. According to bankruptcy filings, the nation's No. 2 bank by assets is the lead agent on $648 million in loans to Refco, but that risk is shared with other banks.

...more...

[ozymandius]

63. Refco investors optimistic amid bidding

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors in bankrupt Refco Inc. on Tuesday grew more hopeful that an intensifying bidding war for its sought-after futures brokerage would increase the funds returned to debtholders, lifting the firm's bond prices.

At least six groups have expressed interest in buying Refco's futures trading arm even though the initial bidder, a group led by U.S. private equity firm J.C. Flowers & Co., dropped out of the race on Monday.

On Tuesday, Refco's bonds were quoted at 72 cents on the dollar, their highest level since October 12 and up 12.5 cents from Friday, as new suitors joined the bidding war, pushing the potential purchase price for the futures unit up by nearly $100 million.

"The hope is that bidding is getting more competitive, but there seems to be a disconnect between how strong the bonds are trading and how quickly Refco is losing assets and customers," said Kate Kutasi, a distressed debt and high yield portfolio manager at Kellner DiLeo & Cohen in New York.

more

[UpInArms]

10. Federal probe stokes Unisys widening (more derivatives in the news)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-24T213550Z_01_N24617145_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-CREDIT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Unisys Corp.'s (UIS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) credit spreads on Monday dramatically accelerated their recent widening trend on reports federal auditors are investigating whether the IT consultant overbilled on a $1 billion government contract.

Credit and equity investors took a similarly dim view of the news, which came on the heels of weak results released last week.

The shares ended down nearly 19 percent at $4.50 on Monday. Five-year protection on Unisys debt widened to about 640 basis points in early trading, from about 470 basis points on Friday, according to traders.

Unisys credit derivatives are not very liquid and traders said quotes were not available in the afternoon on Monday. Five-year protection was quoted at about 350 basis points a month ago.

The Washington Post's Web site reported on Saturday that federal auditors found that Unisys overbilled taxpayers by paying employees less than half of what it billed the government. The Post cited an unreleased Defense Contract Audit Agency report.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. US Congress seeks cuts as debt hits $8 trillion

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-24T204402Z_01_N24129494_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BUDGET.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Republicans in Congress will try to pass spending cuts this week, after war, anti-terrorism efforts, hurricanes and big tax cuts helped push the government's debt load through the $8 trillion mark.

Sources in the House of Representatives said it likely would be mid-week before Republican leaders know whether they have enough support for spending reductions, including cuts in health programs for the elderly and poor, that go beyond the $35 billion sketched out last spring.

Congress is also debating a Republican-backed plan for more tax cuts, mostly for the wealthy.

The Senate is sticking to the $35 billion benchmark for spending cuts, amid pressure from conservatives in both chambers to cut more money to help pay for $62.3 billion in emergency aid for victims of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

For either approach to become law, Republicans, who hold a majority in both houses of Congress, will have to do it alone.

Democrats opposed the Republican budget plan enacted last spring and none have said they are on board for a new round of cuts, coupled with the tax cuts.

"I'm appealing to my colleagues in the majority, don't do this. Postpone this effort," Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, said on Monday.

...more...

Tax Cuts for the Rich are the priority for the GOPpiggies.


The estimated population of the United States is 297,525,822
so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,919.84.

[UpInArms]

13. R&G Financial says SEC investigation now formal

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-25T113057Z_01_WEN1995_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-R-G-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - R&G Financial Corp. (RGF.N: Quote, Profile, Research), a Puerto Rican financial services company, on Tuesday said it now faces a formal investigation by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The bank said it believes the investigation, like the informal inquiry disclosed on April 26, concerns issues related to R&G's restatement of financial results. The company, which disclosed the SEC subpoena in a filing Tuesday, said it is cooperating with the probe.

[UpInArms]

15. US chain store sales fall in the latest week-ICSC

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-25T114550Z_01_NAT001860_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RETAIL-ICSC-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store retail sales fell in the latest week, as sales were mixed and consumer demand for fall apparel slowed, a retail report said on Tuesday.

Sales fell 0.2 percent in the week ended Oct. 22, compared with 0.4 percent increase the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report.

<snip>

"Over the last week, gasoline prices have fallen to their lowest since mid-August, while a bout of cold weather is moving in and will likely spur consumer's interest in fall and even winter apparel," added Niemira.

...more...

[JNelson6563]

17. Good morning beloved Marketeers!

Well things seem to be going swimmingly since we know who the next Fed chair will be. Good ol' Bernanke.... Taking odds on how long this fake euphoria will last....

Consumer reports should be interesting and home building..well I have no crystal ball on that one. Teetering on the precipice IMO, hard to know when that fall will come.

Sure the market is fat and happy after yesterday's delirium over Bernanke but we'll see how that all holds up when the indictments start coming....

Loved the 'toon Ozy. Just had to stop by with a howdy and a Greatest vote.

:cheers:

Julie

[ozymandius]

18. Good morning Julie.

Thank you for dropping by. Whether he be the captain of the Titanic or the Lusitania - market revellers are obliged to show Bernanke their confidence. At least for pity's sake. He'll be a shoo-in in the Senate.

I will be very suprised if the markets do not treat his opening days as they have treated almost, to the one, every Fed chairman of the past eighty years. Celebrations last a few days then it's back to business.

:toast:

Ozy

[54anickel]

48. Ozy, I remember posting an article not too long ago that looked at the

history of the markets when there was a change in the Fed chairman. They tanked every time. I'll see if I can find it again.

[ozymandius]

19. pre-open blather

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Stocks continue to head towards a lower start. Although about 70% of the morning's earnings reports have thus far checked in higher than analysts' estimates, traders remain focused on disappointing Q4 guidance. Aside from Texas Instruments (TXN), DuPont (DD) and Lexmark (LXK), which beat consensus estimates by $0.04 and $0.12, respectively, have dropped in early trading. While its EPS estimate includes several one-time items and may not be comparable to the Reuters Estimates consensus, DuPont forecasted Q4 EPS of $0.20-0.25 versus the $0.36 consensus. Lexmark, meanwhile, expects EPS of $0.40-0.50 versus the $0.65 consensus next quarter.

8:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. The cash market is poised for a lower open today; particularly weighing upon early sentiment is Texas Instruments' (TXN) softer than anticipated fourth quarter revenue outlook. Although the company reported a 12% increase in net income for Q3 and exceeded analysts' EPS estimates last night, traders have sent shares down 5% this morning. Next quarter, Texas Instruments foresees sales of $3.43 to $3.72 bln, versus the $3.63 bln consensus estimate.

[UpInArms]

20. Treasurys little moved ahead of consumer confidence data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38650.3615821991-847429051&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The benchmark 10-year Treasury note was unchanged ahead of the 10 a.m. Eastern time release of a monthly report tracking consumer confidence. The average of a MarketWatch survey looks for a modest rebound to 88.2 after the index slumped by the most in 15 years last month, to 86.6, a reflection of rattled consumers in the wake of Hurricane Katrina. The 10-year note's yield stood at 4.45%, rising in the previous session as the bond market contemplated the inflation policy likely to be assumed by incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

[UpInArms]

29. Printing Press Warm-Up: Fed adds reserves via overnight system RPs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-25T133522Z_01_N25209637_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it was adding temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 3.750 percent, the Fed's target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

See for recent Fed open market operations.

[UpInArms]

45. Printing Press Now Humming: Fed adds permanent reserves via coupon pass

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-25T143944Z_01_N25217005_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-COUPONPASS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it added permanent bank reserves by buying U.S. Treasury coupons maturing between Jan. 31, 2006 and Oct. 31, 2006.

Some issues were excluded.

Details of the coupon pass are available on the New York Fed's Web site: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/permanent.html

Fed funds last traded at 3.75 percent, the Fed's target for the rate on overnight loans between banks.

[UpInArms]

43. Treasuries tick up on Oct consumer confidence dip

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-25T141323Z_01_NYG000073_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-CONFIDENCE-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices edged up on Tuesday after the Conference Board reported a slight, unexpected, decline in consumer confidence in October, adding to concerns about economic growth.

The Conference Board, a private New York business group, said consumer confidence fell in October to 85.0, below economists' expectations of 88.1 and September's downwardly revised 87.5 result.

The benchmark 10-year note rose 3/32 to yield 4.44 percent, compared with 4.45 percent on Monday.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

21. The Plan for Federated Dept Stores: 6200 job cuts

http://www.newsday.com/business/ny-bzcuts4483344oct25,0,193036.story?coll=ny-business-headlines

FEDERATED TO CLOSE, SELL 6 MORE STORES. Federated Department Stores Inc. will sell or close an additional six stores, bringing the total to 82, following its $11-billion acquisition of May Department Stores Co. Duplicate stores in Arizona, California, Indiana, Kentucky and New Hampshire will be divested next year, the Cincinnati-based retailer said yesterday in a statement. The stores are four Macy's, a Marshall Field's and a Robinsons-May. Federated plans to expand Macy's as a national brand by converting May stores to the nameplate next year and introducing more upscale merchandise. It will also sell May's 710 bridal stores and cut about 6,200 jobs.

[UpInArms]

22. Avery Dennison posts 3Q earns $86.2M; to cut 500 jobs

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38650.3638284491-847429423&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Avery Dennison Corp. (AVY) Tuesday reported third-quarter earnings of $86.2 million, or 86 cents a share, up from a year-ago profit of $75 million, or 75 cents a share. Sales rose 2% in the latest three months to $1.36 billion from $1.34 billion in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a profit of 76 cents a share in the September period on revenue of $1.39 billion. The Pasadena, Calif., maker of office products, labeling materials and ticketing systems also unveiled restructuring plans that it expects to result in annual savings of $60 million to $70 million by 2007. The company expects the restructuring to result in the elimination of more than 500 positions. Looking ahead, the company lifted its outlook to earnings of $3.28 to $3.43 a share for the full year, excluding items. The stock closed Monday at $52.36, up 1.3%.

[Tace]

40. This Is One Of Those Anecdotal Leading Indicators Of Business Activity

Makers of the labels and boxes used to package and ship manufactured goods are among the first to slow down when manufacturing ebbs in an economic downturn.

[AnneD]

50. Kinda like....

auto repo rates and home foreclosure to consumers. People give up their homes and cars last.

[UpInArms]

25. Job cuts ahead at Beaverton's Metro One

http://www.kgw.com/business/stories/kgw_102405_tech_metro_one.13893ca.html

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

BEAVERTON -- Beaverton-based Metro One Telecommunications Inc., announced the loss of its last major customer last week, leaving the already-struggling company in a state of virtual free-fall. As a result, it's likely that many employees will lose their jobs in the coming months.

Nextel will take nearly three-quarters of Metro One's revenue when it leaves in January.

The directory assistance contractor currently employs more than 2,300 people across the country, including just under 200 in the Portland area, but the company is predicting many layoffs because of Nextel's decision.

<snip>

But ever since AT&T Wireless and Sprint PCS each dropped Metro One in favor of cheaper directory assistance from automated or offshore providers, Metro One has been losing millions of dollars each quarter.

...more...

[UpInArms]

51. BASF sees cutting 400 jobs in United States

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-25T151408Z_01_N25476716_RTRIDST_0_CHEMICALS-BASF-JOBS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters) - BASF (BASF.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest chemical company by sales, expects to cut 400 jobs at plants in Mississippi, Virginia, and North Carolina, the company said on Tuesday.

The comments came at a presentation by top BASF management in New York.

[UpInArms]

58. Federated says no cuts before March 1, 2006

12:05pm 10/25/05 FEDERATED REITERATES NO WORKFORCE CUTS BEFORE MARCH 1, 2006

12:04pm 10/25/05 FEDERATED TO PHASE OUT CREDIT OPS IN LORAIN AND PARMA, OHIO

12:04pm 10/25/05 FEDERATED TO PHASE OUT CREDIT OPS IN HOUSTON, TEXAS

12:05pm 10/25/05 FEDERATED TO PHASE OUT OHIO, TEXAS CREDIT OPS IN SPRING 2006

12:03pm 10/25/05 FEDERATED TO CONSOLIDATE MAY CO CREDIT SUPPORT FACILITIES

[UpInArms]

85. Layoffs, claims rise in Missouri and Illinois

http://stlouis.bizjournals.com/stlouis/stories/2005/10/24/daily27.html?jst=b_ln_hl

The numbers of mass layoffs and initial claims for unemployment insurance increased in Missouri and Illinois in September from the same month last year, the Bureau of Labor statistics said Tuesday.

Missouri had 10 layoffs of at least 50 workers and 981 unemployment insurance claims in September, up from three mass layoffs and 195 claims in September 2004, the bureau said.

Illinois had 46 mass layoffs and 5,779 unemployment insurance claims in September, up from 26 layoffs and 2,567 claims in September 2004.

The nation had 1,548 mass layoffs and 190,906 unemployment insurance claims in September, up from 708 layoffs and 68,972 claims in September 2004.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Ameritrade, SEC discuss acc'ting issues (neg restatement coming - hedges)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B73407F9B%2DA75F%2D45F1%2D8920%2D80549002262D%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Ameritrade Holding Corp. said Tuesday it may have to adjust earnings for several past periods related to some hedging transactions it made in fiscal 2003.

The company said it may ultimately have to restate fiscal year 2003 results downward by $28 million, or 7 cents a share.

<snip>

"While the company believes that the hedges were effective and consistently measured from the date of inception, a determination that the documentation does not meet the accounting requirements would result in these instruments being ineligible for hedge accounting treatment," Ameritrade said in a press release Tuesday.

...more...

[Mnemosyne]

24. Spot on toon oz! thanks! n/t

[UpInArms]

27. 9:33 EST casino is giving the bizness

Dow 10,360.75 -24.25 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,107.93 -7.90 (-0.37%)
S&P 500 1,196.44 -2.94 (-0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.446 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 49,635,000
Nasdaq Volume 45,284,000

[Changenow]

28. Size of Bankruptcy Bubble Surprises Banks

skip

"The banks are saying that we expect bankruptcy-law-related losses will subside because of the rush to file," said David A. Hendler, an analyst with CreditSights, an independent research firm based in New York. "But the undertone of credit quality is worsening."

Even before bankruptcy filings began rising this spring, an American Bankers Association survey of 350 member institutions found that credit card delinquencies had been increasing when measured by the number of accounts past due. (When measured by dollars lost, it has declined). In September, it reported that the rate rose to a record of 4.81 percent during the second quarter, driven in large part by the higher price of gasoline. And it is not expected go down anytime soon.

The losses are particularly troublesome for the nation's biggest banks, where credit cards have become powerful profit engines over the last few years while overall industry growth has slowed. Credit card issuers face myriad challenges, including stiff price competition, the need for costly reward programs, and declining direct mail response rates. And with rising interest rates, every issuer is seeing their profit margins squeezed.

J. P. Morgan Chase, the second- largest credit card issuer, said it was now setting aside an additional $100 million this quarter to help absorb the bankruptcy losses expected next quarter. Mr. Dimon estimated about $500 million more than usual might be lost next quarter when the bulk of the bad debts are written off.

more



http://www.nytimes.com/2005/10/25/business/25place.html

[54anickel]

61. Wow, look at that picture of 'em lined up.

Will this be far behind?

[UpInArms]

30. Dec Gold up $6.40 @ $473.50 oz

9:40am 10/25/05 DEC GOLD UP $6.40 AT $473.40/OZ AFTER 1-WK HIGH OF $473.50

[UpInArms]

53. Dec Gold up $7.20 @ $474.20 oz

11:37am 10/25/05 DEC GOLD UP $7.20 AT $474.20/OZ IN LATE MORNING TRADE

11:37am 10/25/05 DEC SILVER CLIMBS 12.7C, OR 1.7%, TO $7.835/OZ

[UpInArms]

32. 9:53 EST moving up prior to Consumer Confidence Report

Dow 10,381.56 -3.44 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 2,111.38 -4.45 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,197.36 -2.02 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.444 -0.02 (-0.04%)

NYSE Volume 193,878,000
Nasdaq Volume 153,986,000

(updating blather on edit)

9:45AM: As expected, the equity market opened on the downside this morning. Texas Instruments is largely responsible for spurring some early slling; although the chip company joins the long list of Q3 earners who have surpassed analysts' estimates, it gave a range of Q4 revenue guidance that Wall Street found disappointing as its mid-point is below the average analyst forecast. This, and a reaction to the strong rally yesterday -which came on the assumption that Bernanke will be less aggressive in raising interest rates in 2006 than Greenspan would have been - are the main reasons behind stocks' lower start. Still, though, earnings reports are coming in on track 18% Q3 growth across the S&P 500. In addition to Texas Instruments, some of the companies amongst the 70% reporting ahead of expectations this morning are Lockheed Martin (LMT), Northrop Grumman (NOC), A.I. DuPont (DD), International Paper (IP), Legg Mason (LM), Bell South (BLS), Burlington Northern (BNI), and Omnicom (OMC), and Coach (COH).

9:14AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.0.

9:01AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.5. Futures trade continues to suggest a downside open for the stock market. After spending most of yesterday's session below $60.00/bbl, crude's rise to $61.05 may be adding to the modestly bearish tone this morning. In the early going, the price of oil has gained 1.2%. Separately, the day's economic calendar features two items: At 10:00 ET, Sept. existing home sales data (consensus 7.20 mln) and the Oct. consumer confidence report (consensus 88.0 mln) will be released.

8:33AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.0. Stocks continue to head towards a lower start. Although about 70% of the morning's earnings reports have thus far checked in higher than analysts' estimates, traders remain focused on disappointing Q4 guidance. Aside from Texas Instruments (TXN), DuPont (DD) and Lexmark (LXK), which beat consensus estimates by $0.04 and $0.12, respectively, have dropped in early trading. While its EPS estimate includes several one-time items and may not be comparable to the Reuters Estimates consensus, DuPont forecasted Q4 EPS of $0.20-0.25 versus the $0.36 consensus. Lexmark, meanwhile, expects EPS of $0.40-0.50 versus the $0.65 consensus next quarter.

[UpInArms]

41. 10:18 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,374.27 -10.73 (-0.10%)
Nasdaq 2,110.87 -4.96 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,197.47 -1.91 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.444 -0.02 (-0.04%)

NYSE Volume 394,031,000
Nasdaq Volume 284,959,000

10:00AM: While still sitting below the flat line, each of the indices have bounced from opening levels. Sector standing, meanwhile, is split down the middle - with five trending positive and the other five in the red. Although spirited leadership has not, at this point, emerged, the Materials sector (+0.7%) demonstrates early follow-through to yesterday's 2.3% jump and currently leads. DuPont (DD 40.57 +0.95) serves as the most substantial upward force within the sector, recently rising 2.4% as traders digest the Dow component's Q3 earnings report. With EPS of $0.33, DuPont surpassed expectations by $0.04 while also beating revenue estimates and announcing a $5bln share repurchase plan. Its Q4 guidance, however, may keep its upside somewhat limited today. NYSE Adv/Dec 1004/1605, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 877/1500

[UpInArms]

46. 10:55 EST markets sing along with Bobby McFerrin

Dow 10,401.41 +16.41 (+0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,113.91 -1.92 (-0.09%)
S&P 500 1,200.10 +0.72 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.444 -0.02 (-0.04%)

NYSE Volume 628,906,000
Nasdaq Volume 441,034,000

Here is a little song I wrote
You might want to sing it note for note
Don't worry be happy
In every life we have some trouble
When you worry you make it double
Don't worry, be happy......

Ain't got no place to lay your head
Somebody came and took your bed
Don't worry, be happy
The land lord say your rent is late
He may have to litigate
Don't worry, be happy
Lood at me I am happy
Don't worry, be happy
Here I give you my phone number
When you worry call me
I make you happy
Don't worry, be happy
Ain't got no cash, ain't got no style
Ain't got not girl to make you smile
But don't worry be happy
Cause when you worry
Your face will frown
And that will bring everybody down
So don't worry, be happy (now).....

There is this little song I wrote
I hope you learn it note for note
Like good little children
Don't worry, be happy
Listen to what I say
In your life expect some trouble
But when you worry
You make it double
Don't worry, be happy......
Don't worry don't do it, be happy
Put a smile on your face
Don't bring everybody down like this
Don't worry, it will soon past
Whatever it is
Don't worry, be happy

[UpInArms]

55. 11:44 EST some worry - fewer happy

Dow 10,368.90 -16.10 (-0.16%)
Nasdaq 2,106.39 -9.44 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,194.92 -4.46 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.454 +0.08 (+0.18%)

NYSE Volume 910,517,000
Nasdaq Volume 616,592,000

11:30AM: Slipping into the red, the Dow and S&P rejoin the Nasdaq. At the same time, however, the morning's tight trading range has not been breached and losses remain in the single digits. Trade remains lackluster; six sectors are in the red while four are trending positive, but no sector sports either a gain or loss of 1% or more. Financial's 0.2% decline, while modest, helps cap the overall market's advance. Particular weakness in life and health insurers (i.e., AFL, JP, MET, PRU, TMK, UNM) represents the sorest spot and works to counter the American Express (AXP 50.33 +0.79) driven rise in consumer finance. For its part, the bluechip continues to attract buyers following the Q3 earnings it delivered yesterday afternoon.NYSE Adv/Dec 1355/1634, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1098/1641

11:00AM: The Dow and S&P have maintained their positive footing, but a 0.4% decline in the Technology sector stunts the Nasdaq's rise from the red. Texas Instruments' (TXN 29.02 -1.90) guidance-induced plunge weighs heaviest on the broader market and has stirred selling across the tech board, and the shaky stance of a number of bellwethers (i.e., MSFT, DELL, QCOM, YHOO, AAPL) serves as an additional drag. Recently rebounding, however, is IBM (IBM 83.83 +0.36) - which now extends a modest 0.4% gain to the sector, the Dow, and the S&P after announcing a $4 bln share buyback. NYSE Adv/Dec 1527/1360, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1172/1473

[54anickel]

56. Frustration all around

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=47992

Summary

As we approach the late stages of 2005, the stock market represents a good deal of frustration for bulls and bears alike. However, as you sift through what has taken place this year to date, it is the former camp that is probably -- or at least should be -- more upset about what has (or has not) happened.
_____

NOTE: President Bush has decided to appoint Ben Bernanke to succeed Alan Greenspan as Federal Reserve chairman. Bernanke was a Fed governor, and he currently chairs the Council of Economic Advisors.

Personally, I think this is a horrendous choice, although it has been widely reported that Bernanke wanted the position very badly. The fact that he got his wish may be something of a reflection that many really solid, serious candidates were, of their own choice, not in the running, since people meeting these criteria are more than aware of the "mess" (euphemism) Greenspan is leaving behind.

snip>

The Stock Market

* The market is strong today, a combination of two factors, I suspect. To wit: (1) the market entered the current week very short-term oversold. Therefore, from a purely technical perspective, it was due a good bounce. (2) The Bernanke news probably is adding to strength, since Wall Street bulls are likely -- initially, at least -- to believe that the cheap, easy money with which Bernanke is associated is a highly constructive development.

* As stated at the outset, this year's stock market to date represents a good deal of frustration for bulls and bears alike. Bulls are unhappy for sure that through almost 10 months, most of the highly visible bellwether measures are negative. As for the bears, many of them cannot believe the market is not down much more than it is.

* In assessing what has (or has not) occurred this year, I think you must take into account the high level of euphoria that existed as this year was commencing. Relative to those expectations, this year (so far) has been an even bigger disappointment for the bullish camp.

more...

[ozymandius]

62. lunchtime check-in

Dow 10,379.48 -5.52 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,107.12 -8.71 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,196.20 -3.18 (-0.27%)
10-Yr Bond 44.50 +0.04 (+0.09%)
NYSE Volume 1,062,693,000
Nasdaq Volume 717,918,000

12:05PM : While yesterday's rally has not been extended into today's session, the equity market has erased little of its gains notched yesterday and has managed to hold the major indices within a narrow range just below the flat line. Ben Bernanke's nomination to replace Alan Greenspan had sparked the strongest rally in about six months - reflecting investors' perception that the new Fed Chief will be more dovish in fighting inflation during 2006 than Greenspan would have been - but disappointing Q4 guidance from Texas Instruments (TXN 28.61 -2.31) injected some offsetting bearishness into early trading. Although the chip company joins the long list of Q3 earners who have surpassed analysts' estimates, the midpoint of its revenue guidance falls below the consensus estimate and spurred a 7.5% plunge in its shares. Its decline has sparked broad-based selling across the tech board that has kept the Tech sector (-0.6%) submerged; downside Q4 guidance from Lexmark (LXK 40.00 -2.46), despite its upside Q3earnings report, has added to the sector's weakness. IBM's (IBM 83.25 -0.22)announced $4 bln share buyback - which represents about 3% of the company - briefly helped support the sector, but it too has fallen into the red. The market has been unable to find leadership this morning, but, at the same time, declines have remained as minimal as advances. Tying Tech for the laggard spot is the Consumer Discretionary sector, challenged by re-rising energy prices that include a 1.8% jump in crude. The sector's sorest spot is eBay (EBAY 37.57 -1.85), suffering from rumors that Google (GOOG 344.35 -4.30) is moving in on its turf and will launch a product similar to PayPal. Despite the energy action today, the Energy sector has not caught much of a bid and has risen a modest 0.2%. Materials leads the session, up 0.3% and largely supported by relative strength in DuPont (DD 40.74 +1.12). Ahead of the opening bell, the Dow component surpassed analysts' earnings expectations by $0.04 per share while also beating revenue estimates and announcing a $5bln share repurchase plan. Its Q4 guidance, however, has kept its capped its upside and minimized the effect of its solid earnings report. While traders continue to focus upon profit outlooks, today's torrent of third quarter reports further supports expectations for aggregate Q3 earnings growth of 18%; overall, about 70% of this morning's reporters beat expectations, which is slightly above the trend of two-thirds of companies doing so. Separately, the day's economic docket featured two items. At a 7.28 mln annual rate (consensus 7.20 mln), September existing home sales were unchanged from August and continue to reflect a strong trend. October consumer confidence, meanwhile, slid to 85.0 from 87.5 in August, but the decline comes with little surprise and on account of high energy prices. Overall, though, neither release alters the economic outlook and had minimal impact upon the overall market today.NYSE Adv/Dec 1238/1842, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1066/1743

[ozymandius]

64. IBM sets $4 billion share buyback

NEW YORK (Reuters) - International Business Machines Corp., the world's largest computer company, said on Tuesday its board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to $4 billion of its shares.

short blurb

[ozymandius]

67. 1:23 numbers and blather

Dow 10,361.07 -23.93 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 2,101.74 -14.09 (-0.67%)
S&P 500 1,193.56 -5.82 (-0.49%)
10-Yr Bond 44.82 +0.36 (+0.81%)
NYSE Volume 1,303,124,000
Nasdaq Volume 887,668,000

1:00PM: With increased selling pressure amid the Tech sector (-0.9%), Financials (-0.4%), and Healthcare (-0.7%), the indices move lower...

While this morning's economic data did not garner much attention amongst stock investors, the currency market has taken notice. October consumer confidence, which checked in at 85.0 (consensus 88.0) and fell to a two-year low largely due to high energy prices was not dollar-positive. Furtehr helping the euro climb to a two-week high against the buck was Germany's business-sentiment survey, which rose to a five-year high. Prior to the U.S. data hitting the wires, traders were tentatively offering up the dollar on Fed head nominee Bernanke's potentially dovish inclination.NYSE Adv/Dec 1196/1940, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1041/1822

12:30PM: Running in place, the major averages have not stepped out of the session's narrow range. Presently, the blue chip average's rise is impeded by declines extended by 22 of its 30 components. Leading the laggards is Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 27.83 -0.36), Alcoa (AA 23.71 -0.23), and Wal-Mart (WMT 45.68 -0.53) - the only Dow decliners to have lost 1% or more. Hewlett-Packard is likely trading in sympathy with reeling Lexmark (LXK 39.95 -2.51) shares; no specific news appears responsible for Alcoa's weakness; Wal-Mart's decline may be attributed to is previously-announced healthcare benefits expansion and today's report that the retail giant will increase spending by 15-20%.NYSE Adv/Dec 1273/1834, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1092/1743

[54anickel]

68. Wal-Mart calls for minimum wage hike (WTF?)

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/25/news/fortune500/walmart_wage/index.htm

CEO Lee Scott tells executives he's urging congressional action in a bid to help 'working families.'

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott said he's urging Congress to consider raising the minimum wage so that Wal-Mart customers don't have to struggle paycheck to paycheck.

Scott told Wal-Mart (Research) directors and executives in a speech Monday that he believes "it is time for Congress to take a look at the minimum wage and other legislation that can help working families."

"The U.S. minimum wage of $5.15 an hour has not been raised in nearly a decade and we believe it is out of date with the times," Scott said. "We can see first-hand at Wal-Mart how many of our customers are struggling to get by. Our customers simply don't have the money to buy basic necessities between pay checks."

snip>

Tracy Sefl, a spokeswoman for Wal-Mart Watch, a group that's been highly critical of the retailer, said Scott's comments on raising minimum wage were "laughable and out of left field."

"I find it disingenuous and laughable that Lee Scott makes these remarks while the company hires lobbyist such as Lee Culpepper who oppose raising the minimum wage," Sefl said.

more...

Heh-heh, Wal-mart is recognizing the hand that feeds it.

[trogdor]

70. We at Wal-Mart struggling to get by.

"We can see first-hand at Wal-Mart how many of our customers are struggling to get by. Our customers simply don't have the money to buy basic necessities between pay checks."

[hatrack]

72. Well, shit, Lee - wasn't that the plan?

Americans making steadily less and less over time as real wages declined, but able to s-t-r-e-t-c-h their minimum wage dollars further at Mao-Mart?

Tens of millions shackled to your company since they couldn't afford to shop anywhere else, or because alternatives no longer existed?

Thousands of unemployed, undermployed, underinsured and underpensioned elderly desperate enough to take 20 hours a week as greeters?

I thought this was what you wanted, Lee!

[54anickel]

73. Heh-heh, nice post hatrack. Another example of be careful what you

wish for.

[barb162]

76. When Wal-Mart comes up with asking for a raise in Min. Wage

you know they have to be sensing something very bad about this economy of ours.

[AnneD]

77. wonder how long .....,

it will take the others in corp America to wake up. Say, while you are at it Lee, how about re-establishing some of those manufacturering jobs you destroyed. I think you will discover that it is hard to unscramble an egg.

[wordpix]

84. Walmart has new "green" energy effort BUT

gives $1,354,790 to Republicans this year. Also has a lot of trouble with state DEPs. Check it out:
www.buyblue.org/directory/78

[ozymandius]

74. 2:33 - fierce trading today as all markets get hammered

Dow 10,327.93 -57.07 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq 2,096.74 -19.09 (-0.90%)
S&P 500 1,190.73 -8.65 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 44.94 +0.48 (+1.08%)
NYSE Volume 1,619,151,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,121,695,000

2:00PM: Digging deeper, the indices establish fresh lows. Healthcare's 1.1% ties with Tech's decline in most heavily dragging the overall market, but declines in six other sectors and force to the downward efforts. Particularly weighing upon Healthcare are plummeting HMO issues. Each of the S&P 500's managed health issues extend substantial losses, with Aetna (AET 84.06 -4.26), Humana (HUM 43.79 -2.01), Wellpoint (WLP 75.19 -2.90), Cigna (CI 111.30 -4.23), and United Health (UNH 55.28 -1.91) respectively down 4.8%, 4.4%, 3.7%, 3.7%, and 3.3%. The segment stands as the Healthcare sector's best year-to-date performer, and today works to erase some of its 31.8% gain. NYSE Adv/Dec 1087/2118, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 982/1934

[ozymandius]

79. updating blather

2:30PM: Fading further, the market's majors continue to reach new session lows. Relative to its counterparts, the Dow's gain from yesterday remains best in tact; the blue chip average has taken back about 36%, while the S&P and Nasdaq have respectively erased 45% and 62%. DuPont's (DD 41.10 +1.48) earnings-related rise can be almost solely credited for limiting the Dow's decline. At the same time, DuPont has helped the Materials sector (-0.3%) remain the best-faring of the eight sectors trending negative. With respect to the Dow, the only other advancers are Verizon (VZ 40.30 +0.41), SBC (SBC 23.66 +0.07), and Proctor & Gamble (PG 55.26 +0.16).NYSE Adv/Dec 1095/2143, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 982/1950

[ozymandius]

81. 3:26 numbers and blather

Dow 10,342.02 -42.98 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,099.18 -16.65 (-0.79%)
S&P 500 1,192.39 -6.99 (-0.58%)
10-Yr Bond 45.08 +0.62 (+1.39%)
NYSE Volume 1,930,412,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,334,404,000

3:00PM: Though springing off of recently hit lows, the major indices remain well into the red. Still, though, they demonstrate resilience in the face of surging crude and running bond yields. After starting the week below $60.00/bbl, oil's pricetag has shot up 3.4%, to $62.35/bbl, today. As a sidenote, the EIA will release the latest energy inventory data tomorrow at 10:30 ET. With respect to the Treasury market, the weakness that Ben Bernanke's nomination sparked yesterday has carried over into the current session; bonds have been dragged lower today on technical issues and ahead of the remaining economic data slated for this week. To that end, the benchmark 10-year note is off 16 ticks and yielding 4.51%, while, at the back of the curve, the 30-year (-25/32) offers investors 4.71%.NYSE Adv/Dec 1138/2109, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 995/1960

[loudsue]

82. Kicking for the late afternoon crowd...

:applause: Thanks again, Marketeers, for yet another blockbuster MW Thread!! :yourock:


:kick::kick::kick:

[UpInArms]

86. closing numbers

Dow 10,377.87 -7.13 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,109.45 -6.38 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 1,196.54 -2.84 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.508 +0.62 (+1.39%)

NYSE Volume 2,311,740,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,600,909,000

:hi:

[ozymandius]

87. and the blather

g'night

:hi:

Close: The market failed to extend Monday's gain that was inspired by Ben Bernanke's nomination to replace Alan Greenspan as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. It should be credited, however, with demonstrating resilience in the face of surging energy prices, rising bond yields, and a cautious-sounding sales outlook from chip maker Texas Instruments (TXN). By the session's close, each of the indices had largely pared their intraday declines, and the Dow and S&P respectively erased just 4.2% and 8.8% of yesterday's gains. The Nasdaq, however, fared worse and took back 30.0%. The Texas Instrument effect infected the Tech sector (-0.8%) from the early going, and, as a result, roiled the Nasdaq. Although the company joined the list of Q3 earners who have surpassed analysts' estimates, the midpoint of its revenue guidance fell short of the consensus estimate and spurred a 8% plunge in its shares that especially left semiconductors reeling. Hardware further dragged the sector south after Lexmark (LXK), which also delivered an upside Q3 report today, warned for Q4. What appears to be the arrival of winter in some parts of the U.S. catalyzed the relentless rises in the prices of crude, gasoline, and natural gas and sent the Energy sector 2.0% higher. Aside from the unsurprising buying action across that sector, leadership was again stifled today. At the same time, however, declines were kept in check, and no sector fell more than 0.8%. While Tech's slide weighed heaviest on the broader market, Consumer Discretionary posted the poorest performance. The aforementioned energy price action sunk retailers, and a read on consumer confidence that reflected a two-year low may have further hurt discretionary stocks. With respect to individual issues, a 4% plunge in eBay (EBAY)...

[54anickel]

89. That wasn't so bad after all, except for Treasuries that is. What a

bloody mess on the bond floor again. Time for the mop and bucket crew.