|
People forget the Democratic Party from FDR to LBJ was a combination of the following:
1. Southern Conservative Democrats (Who opposed desegregation)
2. Labor unions and other inner city workers(Who tended to be Social Conservatives but Economic Liberals).
3. African-Americans (Who Supported Civil Rights but preferred Economic Liberalism to Social Liberalism))
4. Women who supported Women Rights (Tend to be one issue but leaned to Social Liberalism)).
5. Economic Liberals who supported Government intervention to help people.
6. Social Liberals who believed in Liberal Social agenda (Freedom of the Press, Freedom of Religion, etc).
FDR had forced together the above to form his "Democratic Coalition). The Coalition was built on the ground work of William Jennings Bryan who advocacy of Open Government, regulation of Business, and support for the economic disadvantaged brought into the Democratic Party the Labor unions, African Americans (Through most would not become democrats till the 1930s) Economic and Social Liberals while maintaining the South and its tendency to Fundamentalism.
In the 1960s Nixon Adopted his "Southern Strategy" which was basically to take Southern Democrats from the Democrats and switch them to the GOP. The key was the following:
1. Use Roe vs Wade to convince Socially Conservative but Economically Liberal Democrats to vote Republican.
2. Keep Suburban republicans voting GOP for the Tax cuts, while making sure such Suburbanites fear of losing the Right to have an Abortion is Minimized by making sure Roe vs Wade is constantly upheld.
3. Keep the Rural North GOP by advocating opposition to Gun Control While making sure no actual test case gets to the US Supreme Court (This also works on the Rural South), like the Rural South this has to be balanced with the desire of the Rural North For Rural Improvements.
4. Convert the Democrats in the Rural South to switch to the Republican Party using the Rural South's fear of Gun Control, Opposition to Abortion, and Fear of Blacks to overcome the Rural South desire for Rural Improvements (even if paying for such improvements meant raising taxes).
5. Maintaining the Base of the GOP which is big business which wants to cut taxes, use what taxes raised to help business only, use government to keep labor costs down and maintaining Social Order with minimal taxes.
6. Keep the Suburban Middle Class happy by giving them Tax cuts, access to education and abortion on Demand.
A quick look over the list and you see the contradictions and conflicts within the GOP. Like the Democrats in the 1960s these conflicts are coming to a head. Rural Religious Leaders (and other Fundamentalist and Catholics) are demanding that Bush appoint a person to the Supreme Court who will over turn Roe vs Wade. If Roe is Overturned Suburban members of the GOP will vote on that issue even if that means voting for a Democrat.
Another Conflict is Gun control. Big Business wants Government or Big Business to be the only group that has access to the use of Force. Rural America wants to retain its access to such force. While the GOP "oppose" Gun Control when such opposition comes into conflict with big business Bush wants to go with Big Business (Look at what happen in New Orleans, private Security guards could go in, but the Police were confiscating guns from private individuals). If the Rural population (both North and South) ever start to Believe that the GOP will NOT oppose Gun Control (Or the Supreme Court rules Gun Control is forbidden by the Second Amendment), the Rural Population will start to Vote Democratic for at least then the Rural South will get some internal Improvements which the GOP opposes.
"Internal Improvements" is another area of conflict. Big Business only wants such improvements if it helps big business, Rural America wants it to help them. Big Business is willing to give up on Government paid Internal Improvements for Tax Cuts, Rural America would prefer Tax Increases to pay for such Improvements Just look at the recent Highway bill as an example, the GOP failed in getting it reduced in any meaningful way).
My point in the above is that the GOP coalition is breaking up. The internal Conflicts are getting to big to be contained. Just like the Rural South Left the Democrats over Civil Rights in the 1960s I see the Rural North doing the same to the Republicans over the need for tax increases to help improve Rural America (And the Rural South will follow the Rural North in going Democratic).
The Religious rights support of the GOP over Abortion means the GOP will have to deliver, but such a delivery will cost the GOP many suburban voters (Suburban Voters will prefer to retain both tax cuts and the right to Abortion, but given a choice will opt for Abortion rights over Tax Cuts).
In 1964 Storm Thurmond switch from the Democratic Party to the GOP. Throughout the South this continued either by Individuals switching parties (As in Thurmond case) or by a Democrat being replaced by a Republican (either when the Democrat retired or by Defeating the incumbent Democrat). People where still doing this in the 1990s (Through it seems to have run its course by 2000). Now you always have people switching parties but as a general rule such switches are rare and since 2000 the number of Democrats turning Republican have approached what is considerer's "Normal" in such switches (i.e. the switch to the GOP from the Democrats was finished).
On the other hand if you look at both parties, the Democrats have the strongest base it has had since the time of William Jennings Bryan. It is a solid base with the parts willing to work together to get someone elected. Now to complete this transformation we need another Bryan, someone who can electrify the population and get the vote out. Such a person will be attacked by the Republicans like all such Democratic Leaders have been since William Jennings Bryan
Dean so far looks like the next Bryan, someone to lead and transform the Party into something that will win a majority of Votes but the point I am trying ot make is that the Democrats are in the position the GOP was in the 1960s, ready to expand, while the GOP is in the same position the Democrats were in the 1960s, Dividing up along well know fault lines (The Social vs Economic Liberal agenda class, Keeping the US Militarily Strong vs making sure the US does NOT become an imperialistic power, Labor demanding protection from business and business demanding advantageous over labor).
All the Democrats need to do to get its Majority quickly is for the Supreme Court to rule Abortion is NO protected under the US Constitution (Shifting the debate on Abortion to the States where both parties will have to address it) and that Gun Control is constitutional but only as to pistols not to Rifles, Shotguns or larger weapons (Which will keep the Rural North Happy for they are more concerned over their deer rifles than Pistols, the Rural South will take longer having a big fixation over pistols). I do NOT see either occurring for the GOP knows such decisions would be a kiss of Death for them. What I do see occurring is a slow conversion of Rural Northern Republicans to Democrats based on Corruption of the GOP, than the greater willingness for Democrats to Raise taxes to solve problems. I also see more and more Suburban types voting Democratic (For example Kerry won the Suburban Bedroom Counties of Pennsylvania next to Philadelphia, a group of voters always assumed to vote Republican).
This is why I think Paul Morrison switched parties, he sees this switch occurring. All he has to do as a Democrat is to oppose Gun Control and say he will oppose Abortion, he would have neutralized all of the GOP strength in Kansas while providing the Voters a Democratic Candidate with all that being a Democrat means.
|
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
