STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 27 October

[ozymandius]

Thursday October 27, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 87 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1771 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1470 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1432
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 26, 2005

Dow... 10,344.98 -32.89 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq... 2,100.05 -9.40 (-0.45%)
S&P 500... 1,191.38 -5.16 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.59% +0.08 (+1.84%)
Gold future... 473.00 -1.70 (-0.36%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

Capitalizing on Peak Oil - Investing In Alternatives

The term “Peak Oil” has been flying around the news lately, intensifying after the May 27th release of Matt Simmons book, “Twilight in the Desert – The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy.”

Simmons has over 400 pages of technical evidence that spells out the following main points:

* 5 miracle giant oilfields created 90% of Saudi Arabia’s oil
* All these giants are now very mature
* All used massive water injection to keep oil flows high
* Vertical drilling is obsolete
* Every key field faces risk of rapid decline
* Coming up empty on exploration: Aramco tried but failed to find more oil

-cut-

In geologist Kenneth S. Deffeyes’ new book “Beyond Oil,” he argues that we may hit peak oil as soon as this November or early next year. Many geologists believe that “peak oil” will arrive in this decade while Deffeyes believes it happens this year. What is known is that there have been no major oil discoveries in the last 30 years. The last big discoveries were in Alaska in the late 60’s and the North Sea in the early 70’s. Both of these discoveries are now in decline.

-cut-

The Outlook for Alternatives is Bright

As immediate substitutes for oil and natural gas are unlikely and will take years to develop, Deffeyes argues that we should look at existing options and begin developing them. With an ever increasing push for R&D into alternatives that will move hand-in-hand with the price of oil, investing in alternative energies and those indirectly linked to them will stand to benefit in the future, and a list of investment areas is presented below.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[punpirate]

7. Alternatives...

... might not completely supplant loss of oil, but they can ameliorate the effects. Rail is the most energy-efficient means of transportation next to pipeline, and we're in the process of trying to kill rail (or, at least, Amtrak). No new fleet mileage standards, nor any meaningful tax incentives to encourage conservation.

Moving ten percent of the defense budget to alternative/renewable R&D would free up $40 billion per year for that latter purpose. Considering that alternative/renewable R&D has been funded, on average, at less than a billion a year for the last thirty years, that sort of funding would really jump-start new technology and new companies.

But, what are we doing at the national level? Being downright stupid. *sigh*

[ozymandius]

2. Stocks seen down on inflation, GM fears

LONDON (Reuters) - Shares on Wall Street are set to open lower on Thursday with concerns over rising inflation weighing while worries surround GM (NYSE:GM - news) after the automaker was subpoenaed by the
Securities and Exchange Commission.

The SEC is probing the firm's accounting and the news led to speculation in Asia, which dealers in Europe said they did not believe, that GM could file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy.

The cost of insuring against a default by GM rose.

By 0940 GMT, U.S. stock futures were between 0.3 and 0.4 percent lower for the three main indexes after shares fell on Wednesday as the benchmark bond yield hit the highest level in seven months on inflation concerns.

more

[UpInArms]

9. GM gets subpoenas from SEC, others

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-26T231821Z_01_N26714557_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-SUBPOENAS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has sent it subpoenas related to the company's accounting.

The automaker said the subpoenas relate to its financial reporting for pension and other post-employment benefits as well as transactions between the company and auto parts supplier Delphi Corp. (DPHIQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research).

Separately, Detroit-based GM said the SEC and federal grand jury subpoenas have been served on General Motors Acceptance Corp. entities in connection with insurance industry probes into products that may help companies smooth earnings.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

13. GM default swaps widen as SEC subpoena sparks fears

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T082235Z_01_L27242775_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-GM.XML

LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The cost of insuring against a default by General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) rose on Thursday in Europe after Asian markets were unsettled by news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had subpoenaed the company as part of a probe into accounting.

The news led to speculation in Asia, which dealers in Europe said they did not believe, that GM could file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.

A spokesman for GM Europe in Zurich declined to comment directly on the rumours, but added:

"What (GM CEO) Rick Wagoner once said is that Chapter 11 is simply not an option for GM and we have zero intention not to fulfil our obligations."

One industry executive said GM could not file for Chapter 11 protection from creditors even if it wanted to. With $19.2 billion in cash on hand at its automotive operations and another $23 billion in cash at finance arm GMAC, it does not fulfil the legal requirements to seek Chapter 11, he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. SEC probes GM's pension figures

http://www.freep.com/money/autonews/pension27e_20051027.htm

General Motors Corp. said the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is probing the company's pension accounting and transactions between GM and bankrupt auto-parts maker Delphi Corp.

GM is cooperating with the SEC inquiry after the agency issued subpoenas, company spokesman Jerry Dubrowski said Wednesday. The automaker's finance unit, General Motors Acceptance Corp., also is being probed in connection with an industrywide investigations of the insurance industry, examining so-called finite risk insurance products, GM said.

The announcement comes a day after DaimlerChryslerAG said the SEC is also examining its pension accounting. The agency is studying whether companies inflate profit or minimize earnings swings by using unreasonable assumptions to value pension assets and liabilities.

Delphi's Oct. 8 bankruptcy filing probably triggered the GM inquiry, given its potential obligations to UAW employees of former subsidiary Delphi, said New York-based Argus Research Corp. analyst Kevin Tynan, who rates GM shares "sell."

<snip>

The SEC probes of GM include: its financial reporting of pension and other retiree benefit programs; transactions between the automaker and Delphi, which GM didn't detail; recovery of recall costs from suppliers and supplier price reductions and credits; and GM's possible obligation to fund pensions and other retiree-benefit costs related to Delphi's Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

46. U.S. stocks drop as GM rattles investor sentiment

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T141150Z_01_N27438567_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-4.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Thursday, rattled by news that the Securities and Exchange Commission has subpoenaed General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) in an investigation into the world's largest automaker's accounting.

Shares of GM, a Dow component, slid by 5.1 percent to $27.67 on the New York Stock Exchange, weighing on blue chips.

Asian markets had swirled with rumors that the company could file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, but GM strongly denied it.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 36.26 points, or 0.35 percent, at 10,308.72. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 2.23 points, or 0.19 percent, at 1,189.15. The technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index was down 9.23 points, or 0.44 percent, at 2,090.82.

"There are a lot of discouraged investors out there," said Cummins Catherwood, managing director of Walnut Asset Management.

"It's scary when a company of GM's stature has to come out with a statement to say it's not going to file for Chapter 11. That's never a good sign. If GM had opened flat this morning, we wouldn't probably be down," he added.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Taking Aim at Oil's Riches

Even for Big Oil, the numbers have never been as big as this.

When major U.S. energy companies including Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. announce their third-quarter earnings in the next few days, the results are certain to be staggering.

Pumped up by soaring prices of oil, natural gas and gasoline in August and September, Exxon Mobil alone is expected to report quarterly profit of about $8.7 billion. That would be more than what such titans as Coca-Cola Co., Intel Corp. and Time Warner Inc. earn in an entire year.

For the energy companies, the record results amount to an embarrassment of riches — an invitation for attack by foes and even by some traditional allies.

"The question increasingly is going to be, what is the industry going to do with this money?" said Amy Jaffe, head of the James A. Baker Institute Energy Forum at Rice University in Houston.

more

[UpInArms]

14. EXXON MOBIL'S QUARTERLY REVENUE BREACHES $100 BILLION

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={25BA52AC-7BA2-417E-B1D9-8CEE07CF25ED}&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) , the world's largest publicly-traded oil company, on Thursday reported net income of $9.92 billion, or $1.58 a share, on revenue of $100.7 billion. The quarter included a $1.62 billion gain from a restructuring of the company's interest in the Dutch gas transportation business. A year ago, Exxon Mobil reported net income of $5.68 billion, or 88 cents a share, on revenue of $76.4 billion. Excluding special items, Exxon Mobil would have earned $8.3 billion, or $1.32 a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected Exxon Mobil to earn $1.38 a share, on average.

One word...

OBSCENE

[UpInArms]

47. Oil, gas prices boost Exxon Mobil's quarterly net 75%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0ABD102F%2D3C50%2D48B8%2D931F%2D0899FC7631FF%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Exxon Mobil Corp., the world's largest publicly traded oil company, said Thursday high oil and gas prices boosted profit 75% and resulted in revenue of more than $100 billion for the first time.

Shares in the company rose 1.2%, or 65 cents, to $56.85.

The Irving, Texas-based company (XOM) reported net income of $9.92 billion, or $1.58 a share, on revenue of $100.7 billion for the latest quarter. The profit included a $1.62 billion gain from a restructuring of the company's interest in the Dutch gas-transportation business, Gasunie.

A year ago, Exxon Mobil reported net income of $5.68 billion, or 88 cents a share, on revenue of $76.4 billion.

Excluding special items, Exxon Mobil would have earned $8.3 billion, or $1.32 a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected earnings of $1.38 a share, on average.

<snip>

Earnings from refining and marketing rose to $2.13 billion from $1.4 billion in the third quarter of 2004, gaining on higher refining margins.

...more...

You suffer - they prosper.

[UpInArms]

15. Shell profits boosted by oil price surge

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/story/0,3604,1601816,00.html

The oil giant Shell today reported bumper third quarter profits of $7.3bn (£4.13bn) as surging oil prices compensated for lost production after hurricanes hit the Gulf of Mexico.

Shell's profits for the three months to September 30 dwarfed the $4.4bn reported by rival BP earlier this week.

The profit figures - the equivalent of £1.5m an hour - mean the company has already made nearly as much in the first nine months of this year as it did in the whole of last year.

Between January and September, Shell - the world's third-largest oil company - made $17.5bn, compared to $17.6bn in the whole of 2004.

<snip>

"Our operational performance is paying off with good results," the Shell chief executive, Jeroen van der Veer, said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Royal Dutch Shell reports 68% rise in earnings; 5 oil majors to report qua

Royal Dutch Shell reports 68% rise in earnings; 5 oil majors to report quarterly profit of $26bn, up 23% on 2004

http://www.finfacts.com/irelandbusinessnews/publish/article_10003748.shtml

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe's second-largest oil company, announced today that third-quarter profit rose 68 percent because of the sale of a Dutch pipeline network and higher energy prices.

Earnings rose to $7.37 billion, or $1.10 a share, from $4.38 billion, or 65 cents a share, using accounting that excludes gains from holding inventories, the company said today in a statement from The Hague. Before gains from the $1.77 billion pipeline sale and other one-time items, profit was $5.8 billion.

<snip>

Credit Suisse First Boston says that the world's five biggest oil companies may report combined net income of $26 billion for the third quarter, up 23 percent from a year earlier. The amount is equal to the economic output of Hungary. The five companies are Shell, Exxon Mobil, London-based BP Plc, Total SA of Paris and Chevron Corp.

...more...

[UpInArms]

67. (Energy Secretary) Bodman opposes oil tax to pay for US heat program

(why doesn't this surprise me?)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T153410Z_01_WAT004269_RTRIDST_0_ENERGY-CONGRESS-TAX-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Energy Secretary Sam
Bodman said on Thursday he would oppose any proposal to impose
a tax or fee on the oil industry to help fund a government
program that helps poor families pay their winter heating
bills.

Bodman told a Senate Energy Committee hearing that he was
not familiar with a Wall Street report that the administration
is considering such a proposal.

Earlier on Thursday, an analyst with Deutsche Bank said in
a research note that the Bush administration was preparing a
proposal to impose a tax or fee on the oil industry to help
fund the $5 billion Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program
(LIHEAP). Such a fee would be a relatively small price for the
industry to pay amid record profits, and it could be passed
through to customers, the analyst said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

77. Apache profit up 60% on energy spike

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B004F1E82%2DA8E7%2D43D9%2D871C%2DB9D0138BB7CC%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Oil and natural-gas producer Apache Corp. said Thursday that a sharp spike in energy prices propelled its third-quarter profit 60% higher.

But the results fell short of what investors had been looking for, sending the stock lower.

Apache (APA) reported record net earnings of $686 million, or $2.05 a share, for the three months ended Sept. 30, up from $429 million or $1.30 a share, in the year-ago period.

Revenue last quarter for the Houston-based company was $2.06 billion, up from $1.41 billion a year ago.

The per-share earnings fell 26 cents short of the $2.31 average analysts polled by Thomson First Call had been expecting.

<snip>

Apache said that it was paid on average $58.66 for each barrel of oil it produced in the quarter, up 54% from a year ago. Natural-gas prices rose 37% to $6.54 per thousand cubic feet.

...more...

[ozymandius]

4. How the Fed is run, and what it does

http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/1026/p10s01-usec.html

Why does the Federal Reserve exist?

In the early 1900s, the United States was a fast-growing industrial power with a history of periodic banking crises - and a populist wariness of creating a powerful central bank. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 created a partially decentralized system that evolved, by the 1940s, mechanisms to maintain price stability and prevent financial panics that could cause bank failures and depression. Some of the Fed's jobs are mundane - such as processing millions of private checks and electronic payments as they flow through the US banking system. But its larger mission is to maintain confidence in the wider system of private banking.

Who runs the Fed?

A seven-member Board of Governors, led by a chairman and vice chairman, steers the Fed nationally. The Board members are appointed by the president and confirmed by the Senate, and they serve 14-year terms that are staggered to maintain a degree of continuity. Twelve regional Federal Reserve Banks, meanwhile, operate under the Board's general oversight. Each regional bank is headed by a president chosen by that bank's board of directors, subject to approval by the Fed's national board.

What does the chairman do?

While he gets the same single vote as other officials at key meetings, the chairman takes the lead role in guiding Fed policy. He is also the most public face of the Fed to the outside world, testifying to Congress semiannually and often moving markets with words of calm or blunt warnings about economic conditions.

How does monetary policy work?

Setting US monetary policy - influencing the cost and availability of money or credit - is the activity that generally puts the Fed in the news. The goal is to provide a stable climate for business growth - and to head off uncontrolled inflation or deflation. The Fed has three levers that influence the monetary climate. First, it tells deposit-taking institutions what share of funds must be held in reserve against deposit liabilities. Second, it sets the "discount rate," the interest rate charged on loans from the Fed to private banks. Third, and most prominent, the Fed can buy and sell US Treasury securities to influence the availability of credit. If the Fed wants credit to be more available, it buys securities and pays by crediting the reserves of private banks involved in the transaction. Banks thus have more money to lend. As the money supply expands, interest rates should fall. When the Fed sells securities, banks end up with less money to lend. Interest rates should rise.

more...

[UpInArms]

10. 3 big trends will haunt Bernanke

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P133283.asp

Good luck, Ben. You're going to need it.

After all, there's nothing you can really do about the biggest problem you'll face when you take over as chairman of the Federal Reserve in January 2006. That problem: You're not Alan Greenspan.

Bernanke will inherit all the problems created by Greenspan's 18-year legacy of loose money, problems that are finally building toward some kind of crisis. But what he won't inherit is Wall Street's overwhelming faith that Greenspan will defuse any potential market bomb before it blows up. The financial markets, while wishing Bernanke success, will be nervously waiting for him to foul up. Nervous markets, of course, have a tendency to turn a minor blip into a major crisis of confidence.

If you read this site regularly, you'll know that columnist Bill Fleckenstein isn't a big Greenspan fan. In his Oct. 4 column, in fact, he called him "the worst Fed chairman, ever."

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. Greenspan: The worst Fed chief ever

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P131155.asp

Alan Greenspan gave a speech recently titled "Economic Flexibility." It should have been called "Damn, I'm Good," because the world's biggest serial bubble blower -- and most incompetent, irresponsible Fed chairman of all time -- tried to rewrite history. My column today will endeavor to set the record straight.

At least he was nice enough to organize his speech so that the majority of objectionable material fell into seven or eight consecutive paragraphs, as he tried to set up Ben Bernanke (his likely successor) to be the fall guy for all of the problems that Greenspan and the rest of the yes-men at the Fed have precipitated.

He's got the dates but not the cause
I'll turn first to his brief 1990s synopsis, in which he claimed: "Yet the significant monetary tightening of 1994 did not prevent what must by then have been the beginnings of the bubble of the 1990s. And equity prices continued to rise during the tightening of policy between mid-1999 and May 2000."

<snip>

Next, he follows up with this incredible statement: "The FOMC knew (my emphasis) that tools were available to choke off the stock-market boom, but those tools would only have been effective if they undermined market participants' confidence in future stability." To which I say: Correct, that is the idea. From time to time, you have to take away the punchbowl. But just remember that term "tools," because we'll see some examples shortly.

...more...

[AnneD]

39. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Thanks for the article. It is always refreshing to see your opinion in the press. So much of what we have come to believe on this thread (based on as too a numbers as we can get)flies in the face of the 'holler back girl' financial press. I have come to believe that the financial press is by and large a subtle and sometimes not so subtle advertising organ for Wall St.
:rant: I regret that I have lost (and I have not lost as much as some) as much as I have on Wall St and do not, at this time, see it as an appropriate investment vehicle for the average investor. Looking back, staying out of credit card debt and debt in general and relying on compounding over time would have served me better. I have a defined benefit pension (backed by the state) and Social Security. I also have money that I have set aside in annuities. If I only had the annuities or just annuities and SS, I would not have an adequate retirement in place. I hope you young pups start making plans now. Any money you spend on interest payments is money out of your pocket and retirement. Remember, there are always those that will pick your pocket. Some do it subtly (like interest on debt) or by distraction (Wall St razzel dazzle). My point is, always keep your hand on your wallet, esp when the GOP is in office.
Well, Happy Hunting, and watch out for the bears......

[llmart]

63. The cover story in this week's Time magazine....

may be of interest to you regarding defined benefit retirement plans. It's scary stuff and as I read it all I could think of is writing a letter to Time saying, "but you kept pushing a Republican agenda" (they are right leaning) and now you're reporting on how this Republican Congress has ripped the middle class off?" Too little, too late.

Read it if you get a chance.

[UpInArms]

66. I cancelled our subscription to Time

because of their rightwing editorials.

The paper it is printed on isn't fit to start the fire in my woodburner on the coldest day of the year.

[AnneD]

73. Thanks for the heads up...

I know that many defined benefits are at risk due to underfunding and poor investments. As a state retirement system, there are a few more safeguard in a DB program as opposed to a DB in the private sector-otherwise I wouldn't still be in this. Here in Texas they have been tinkering with the rules to prolong service before retirement, but I have been under the wire so far (I feel like Indy Jones grabbing the hat). I do feel sorry for those with private DB-until they change the bankruptcy laws and penalize or hold accountable businesses that try to jettison their comittment in order to boost profits, this will continue. Was that the jist? I have been all over this issue like white on rice. I am 51 so I have some time, but I try to keep abreast of the changes.

[llmart]

82. Yes, that was the gist of the article......

It's actually one of the reasons businesses declare bankruptcy under the new rules - so they don't have to pay the owed pensions. Some of the personal stories they related were sad.

I was just surprised that they pointed fingers at Congress, though they didn't point out that it was because they were run by Republicans.

[AnneD]

99. Gee....

once again, thanks to the SMW thread, I am ahead of Time Magazine....I am so suprised :eyes: :eyes: :eyes:
This thread rocks :headbang: :yourock:

[UpInArms]

61. Washed-Up Has-Been Partisan Hack waxes about Houston

Greenspan - Houston has endured traumatic times

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T150140Z_01_WBT004134_RTRIDST_0_HOLDECONOMY-FED-GREENSPAN-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday Houston has go through tough times in recent months and faces "significant" challenges.

Greenspan did not mention the U.S. economy or interest-rate policy in brief remarks prepared for a ceremony to dedicate the Dallas Fed's new Houston branch building, named to honor former Fed governor Edward Kelley.

In his speech, the Fed chairman praised Kelley -- who served on the board from 1987 to 2001 -- for his work preparing the Federal Reserve system for the Y2K transition.

"The system worked. Moreover, following September 11, 2001, we found that the Y2K preparations and fixes had far-greater reach than we had realized," Greenspan said.

"In retrospect, they apparently also contributed directly to the success of the system in crisis mode following the attacks," he added.

...more...

hmmmm.... wasn't the Y2K fix something that happened on Clinton's shift?

[AnneD]

75. I thought ....

I noticed a change for the worse in our air quality today. Thought it was an increase in the ozone. We have monitors throughout the city. They also moniter for particulates...................LIKE BULLSHIT.
Hey, FYI, we have a DEM mayor (Bill White) that is up for re-elec and I don't even think they are running a GOP candidate against him (although there are rumours that Satan is his golfing buddy :evilgrin: ) We are an oasis of blue in a sea of red here so he had to make nice. We are doing well without Fed intervention. They just need to give us what they are suppose to via homeland security, FEMA, etc. We have good leaders and it makes all the difference in the world.

[Left Brain]

56. Thanks for that one, ozy (n/t)

[54anickel]

76. Here's one from Nader I came across the other day while digging

around for info on the Monetary Control Act of 1980.

http://www.nader.org/interest/021500.html

Congress Should Stand Up to the Fed

The Federal Reserve has always acted as a separate government. Normal checks and balances that apply to other federal agencies are simply ignored by the Federal Reserve Board.

The Board sets its own budget and operates off the billions of dollars collected in buying and selling government securities as part of its control of the money supply. The spending is not even subject to a formal Congressional review. With the exception of an occasional perfunctory hearing, Congressional oversight is largely a joke or non existent. Rather than probing the operations of the Federal Reserve, hearings invariably become contests to see which Member of Congress can utter the most fulsome praise for the Fed and its current Chairman, Alan Greenspan.

The Federal Reserve picks and chooses what laws it follows. It claims, for example, that it is not subject to the Civil Rights Act and the provisions of the Act which outlaw job discrimination. In 1980, the Congress passed the Monetary Control Act in an attempt to eliminate the subsidies that the Federal Reserve was handing out to commercial banks in the form of below market pricing of check clearing and other services. The Fed processes more than 17 billion checks annually, largely carried out through a contract fleet of 53 airplanes.

Instead of changing its pricing system to comply with the law, the Fed has engaged in some "creative bookkeeping" and some less than straight forward explanations to Congress in an attempt to obscure the subsidies.

more...

[ozymandius]

5. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Durable Orders Sep
Briefing Forecast -1.5%
Market Expects -1.2%
Prior 3.4%

8:30 AM Initial Claims 10/22
Briefing Forecast 335K
Market Expects 340K
Prior 355K

10:00 AM Help-Wanted Index Sep
Briefing Forecast 36
Market Expects 36
Prior 35

10:00 AM New Home Sales Sep
Briefing Forecast 1240K
Market Expects 1250K
Prior 1237K

[UpInArms]

18. 8:30 Reports in:

8:30am 10/27/05 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL 28,000 TO 328,000

8:30am 10/27/05 U.S. AUG. DURABLE ORDERS REVISED TO UP 3.8% VS 3.4% PREV

8:30am 10/27/05 U.S. SEPT. DURABLE-GOODS INVENTORIES DOWN 0.1%

8:30am 10/27/05 U.S. SEPT. DURABLE-GOODS SHIPMENTS UP 0.1%

8:30am 10/27/05 U.S. SEPT. DURABLE-GOODS ORDERS DOWN 2.1% VS 1.1% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

19. Weekly claims at 328,000

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38652.3542499769-847830254&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits fell by 28,000 to 328,000 the week ending Oct. 22, the Labor Department said Thursday. The number was lower than the 342,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The Labor Department said 24,000 of the new claims were related to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, bringing the total of hurricane-related claims to 502,000. Continuing claims rose to 2.9 million in the week ended Oct. 15.

[Birthmark]

20. So

Did they revise August's Durable Goods Orders up so that they could blame September's decline on Katrina? Inquiring minds want to know!

[UpInArms]

21. U.S. Sept. durable-goods orders down 2.1%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38652.3543041898-847830290&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Orders for new U.S.-made durable goods fell 2.1% in September, the Commerce Department said Thursday. The decline was broad-based. There was a sharp drop in aircraft orders. Economists were expecting orders to fall 1.1% in September. Durable orders in August were revised to a 3.8% increase from 3.4% previously estimated. Shipments of durable goods increased 0.1% in September after a 2.3% gain in August. Orders for core capital goods equipment fell 1.2% in September.

[Maeve]

25. Okay, time to parse the numbers a bit

Initial Claims down more than expected--"The Labor Department said 24,000 of the new claims were related to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, bringing the total of hurricane-related claims to 502,000" We may see a surge in the next weeks from Florida, tho. Continuing claims still rising. All is all, not much news in this news.

Durable Goods orders down sharply--not good.

[UpInArms]

68. Storm-related job losses top half-million

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/financial_markets/13010716.htm

WASHINGTON - The number of people who lost their jobs because of hurricanes Katrina and Rita has now climbed above the half-million mark with further increases expected in coming weeks from Hurricane Wilma.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that an additional 24,000 people who lost jobs because of the devastating Gulf Coast storms filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, pushing the total over the past eight weeks to 502,000 hurricane-related claims.

The weekly job losses from Katrina and Rita peaked at 108,000 in mid-September and have been trending lower since that time. However, analysts said Wilma, which hit Florida on Monday, cutting off power to millions of homes, will likely spark a renewed surge in jobless claims in coming weeks.

<snip>

The government will release its first estimate of overall economic growth for the July-September quarter on Friday. Economists are expecting the gross domestic product advanced at a respectable pace of around 3.6 percent. But before the hurricanes hit, many analysts believed GDP growth would be above 4 percent in the third quarter.

...more...

[UpInArms]

40. Housing Bubble Grows Larger

10:00am 10/27/05 U.S. SEPT. NEW HOME INVENTORY 4.9-MONTH SUPPLY

10:00am 10/27/05 U.S. SEPT. NEW HOME MEDIAN PRICE UP 1.9% Y-O-Y TO $215,700

10:00am 10/27/05 U.S. SEPT. NEW HOME INVENTORY UP 3.1% TO RECORD 493,000

10:00am 10/27/05 U.S. AUG. NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 1.197M VS. 1.237M

10:00am 10/27/05 U.S. SEPT NEW HOME SALES UP 2.1% TO 1.222M VS 1.24M EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

41. US Sept new home sales up, record homes for sale

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T140010Z_01_N26357285_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HOUSING-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Sales of new U.S. homes rose more slowly than expected in September, while the number of new houses on the market hit a record and median prices fell, according to a government report on Thursday that could signal cooling in the housing boom.

The Commerce Department said new single-family home sales rose 2.1 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.222 million units from 1.197 million unit pace in August -- a sharp downward revision. New home sales were revised lower for June and July as well.

The September sales pace was 0.1 percent slower than a year ago.

Economists had expected new home sales to rise to a 1.250 million unit pace from August's originally reported 1.237 million unit pace.

The Commerce Department said Hurricane Katrina had a minimal impact on new residential sales for September.

While sales rose, the supply of homes available for sale shot up to a record 493,000 at the end of September, surpassing August's high of 478,000. At September's sales pace, that represented a 4.9 months' supply.

The median home sales price fell 5.7 percent to $215,700.

...more...

[fasttense]

54. I wonder if they revised August down so they could make it look good now?

The only reason single-family home sales rose in September was because August was revised down. The original number in August was 1.237. The current September number is 1.222, that would be a 0.015 decline or 1.21% decline (if I did my numbers correctly). Hmmm, makes me think someone is trying real hard to give rosy numbers for housing.

[UpInArms]

58. Freddie Mac: 30-yr mortgage averages 6.15% vs 6.1%

(do I hear "froth" popping in the background?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?guid={AE0A686F-CA0C-46F1-9185-262ED2DFA658}&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The benchmark 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average was up in the week ending Thursday, rising to 6.15% from 6.1% a week ago, said Freddie Mac (FRE) . The mortgage agency said its weekly survey also showed a rise in the 15-year loan, to 5.69% from 5.65%, and the one-year Treasury-indexed adjustable rate, to 4.91% from 4.89%. The five-year hybrid ARM also rose, to 5.63% from 5.59%. "Although home sales were still impressive in September, mortgage applications in October seem to be tapering off a bit, due in large part to slowly rising interest rates," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac chief economist, in a statement. "Obviously, refinancing is going to take the biggest hit as mortgage rates tick up. Refinancing comprised about 40 percent or more of the total volume of mortgage originations over the last 13 months. This share, however, will lessen as mortgage rates continue to rise."

[UpInArms]

64. New home sales cooling - Inventories hit record level in September

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B388AF836%2D8590%2D4D8F%2DBFC1%2D169C3E688D9A%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inventories of unsold new homes rose to a record level in September as sales have slowed in the past two months from a record pace in the summer, Commerce Department data released Thursday show.

Sales of new homes in the United States increased 2.1% in September a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.222 million after an 11.6% slump in August, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday. Read the full report.

Sales in September were flat from a year earlier.

Meanwhile, inventories of unsold homes on the market increased to a record 493,000 in September, representing a 4.9-month supply at the current sales pace, the same as in August. It's the highest inventory-sales ratio since late 1996.

"These data are consistent with the notion that the housing market has cooled somewhat recently," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist for RBS Greenwich Capital.

...more...

[UpInArms]

45. Help-wanted ads in US newspapers inched up in Sept

(more envelope stuffers wanted?)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T140317Z_01_NAT001864_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HELPWANTED-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The number of help-wanted ads
in U.S. newspapers increased slightly in September, a private
research group said on Thursday.

The Conference Board said its gauge measuring help-wanted
ad volume in the United States rose to 39 last month from 38 in
August. The index stood at 36 in September of 2004.

"The print ad volume data for the East and West South
Central regions showed a market upturn in September," said Ken
Goldstein, an economist at the Conference Board. He said this
increase was due in part to people who had relocated after
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

The Conference Board said online want-ad volume slipped 4.4
percent in September to 2.04 million new online job postings
appearing on major Internet job boards. The research firm
surveys help-wanted ad volume at 51 newspapers across the
country each month.

[UpInArms]

50. DOE reporting Natural Gas Stocks:

(Thursday report not on "official" report list)

10:31am 10/27/05 U.S. NATURAL GAS STKS UP 77 BLN CUBIC FT: ENERGY DEPT

10:31am 10/27/05 NOV NATURAL GAS DROPS 4.2% TO $13.45/MLN BTUS ON SUPPLY RISE

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38652.4399987963-847846060&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- November natural gas dropped 5% to $13.35 per million British thermal units after a government report said supplies rose more than expected. U.S. natural-gas stocks rose by 77 billion cubic feet for the week ended Oct. 21, the Energy Department said. Analysts at First Enercast Financial expected a rise of 65 billion. Total stocks now stand at 3.139 trillion cubic feet, down 106 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level, but up 85 billion cubic feet from the five-year average, the government data said.

[UpInArms]

71. Chicago Fed Midwest factory index slips in Sept

(Should the Economic Calendar be updated and expanded? Here's another report not on the "official" list)

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2005-10-27T160015Z_01_CHB000103_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MIDWEST-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The Chicago Federal Reserve
Bank said on Thursday its Midwest manufacturing index edged
lower in September on weakness in auto and resource output.

The factory index eased to 111.0 from an upwardly revised
111.3 in August, originally reported at 111.1.

The Midwest still fared better in September than the United
States as a whole as hurricanes shut oil processing and
refining facilities in the Gulf region for days or weeks.

Compared with a year earlier Midwest factory output was up
2.6 percent, trailing a 3 percent national increase.

Regional auto sector production dropped 1.6 percent in
September, reversing much of an August gain.

"The weakness was probably due to the higher concentration
of 'Big Three' auto companies in the Midwest. The industry is
still trying to find its legs in terms of light truck
production," said William Strauss, senior economist at the
Chicago Fed.

...more...

[ozymandius]

6. "this is not the time for amateurs to be jumping in"

from Kos

The Rich Dad and Real Estate bubble

Robert Kiyosaki is the author of the famous Rich Dad, Poor Dad book series. He is also a very successful investor in real estate.

Last weekend Kiyosaki appeared on the Foxnews program of Neil Cavuto. Cavuto and his correspondents were pushing the memo that despite a few strong hurricanes in the last years, people are still eagerly buying real estate along the Atlantic/Caribbean coast. Then Cavuto turned to his guest Kiyosaki. The interview was remarkable. I almost started to write down a transcript. But to save time, I waited for the official Foxnews transcript, which is apparently not coming... So I'm reproducing from memory.

-cut-

Kiyosaki stressed that this is not the time for amateurs to be jumping in. He said that there are already too many idiots in the market asking ridiculous prices, so that few good deals are possible. He clearly implied that the real estate bubble is big. In his words:

All booms bust. And the trouble with the real estate bust is that recession lasts twice as long as a stock market bust.

On the other hand, Kiyosaki confided that he feels sexually excited when bubble busts are coming, because after them it is the best time to buy. That's kind from Kiyosaki, since purely financially he might be more interested in making the pool of "poor dad idiots" larger. Ok sorry, Kiyosaki must be a decent man. But Cavuto seems to like that "job" of encouraging fools.

more...

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/10/27/54757/701

[AnneD]

44. I enjoy reading Kiyosaki...

he gets me thinking outside my box. I liked Rich Dad/ Poor Dad, but I recently read Prophsey. I wasn't impressed with some of what he said until I looked at the publication date. It is worth a read (check it out at the library....a good spot for penny pinchers). It gets you to thinking...which is always a good thing.

I forgot to add...what I gleaned for this book is the peak cycles of the different markets (gold, RE, Stocks and the Boomers effect on Stocks).

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.09 Change -0.40 (-0.45%)

Politics Poses a Risk to Dollar Rally

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4461&Itemid=39

US Dollar
Another day devoid of any significant US economic data gave the dollar a chance to recuperate yesterday’s extensive losses. The next two days should be much more interesting with a busy US economic calendar that includes durable goods, new home sales, and the final third quarter GDP figures. Yet in addition to barrage of data, politics could also shake up the dollar. Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald is expected to announce a series of indictments against some of the top officials in the US government over the leaking of information that led to the disclosure of an undercover CIA agent. There is growing fear that the Vice President may also be implicated, which if becomes the case, could be very bearish for the US dollar. Taking a walk through history back to Nixon’s era, in the month that the Senate established a committee to investigate the Watergate scandal (February 1973), the dollar fell 10 percent against the Deutschemark. Over the next five months, the dollar depreciated by a total of 30 percent. The dollar recuperated some of its losses in the following year, but once Nixon announced his resignation in August 1974, the dollar took a nosedive once again, falling another 15 percent over the next six months. Although it is far too premature to speculate that the current probe into the CIA leak could unfold into something as grave as Watergate, any whiff of political uncertainty could give dollars bulls (who have made tremendous amount of profits this year) a good reason to bail out early.

...more...

Dollar Gives Up More Ground To Unsuspecting Majors

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4464&Itemid=39

Trader’s Outlook:
Dollar bulls are weeping, why did the dollar retreat, the answer is simple because it did not go further. Most traders are so caught in their own side of a trade they fail to see the other side, this trader is always on the both sides of the market, which is why discretionary trading will always be more successful than system or “black box” trading. For this reason I believe the price is an ultimate indicator, not all other indicators, most indicators are used to predict the past and smooth out the price action, quiet useless to make a determination for the future. This trader just follows the price as the current price level is always a proxy for a future direction, because if it happened it’s already too late.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Dollar losses deepen following U.S. factory data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38652.3741674537-847834517&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- A report that showed a sharper-than-expected drop in orders for U.S. durable goods aggravated an already weaker U.S. dollar Thursday. At last check, the dollar had declined 0.9% on the day against the euro; the euro was changing hands at $1.2168 compared to $1.2057. The dollar fell 0.7% to 115.05 yen vs. 115.89 yen. Orders for new U.S.-made durable goods fell 2.1% in September. Durable orders in August were revised to a 3.8% increase from 3.4% previously estimated.

[UpInArms]

32. peeking at the falling dollar

Last trade 88.85 Change -0.64 (-0.72%)

Settle 89.49 Settle Time 23:36

Open 89.11 Previous Close 89.10

High 89.40 Low 88.84

Volume 1,738

Last tick: 2005-10-27 08:48:06 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[UpInArms]

12. Refco's Maggio cooperating with prosecutors - FT

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-26T235917Z_01_N26374575_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-MAGGIO.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 26 (Reuters) - A top Refco Inc. (RFXCQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) executive at the center of the futures and commodities broker's alleged fraud is cooperating with prosecutors, the Financial Times said on Wednesday on its Web site, citing two unnamed people familiar with the matter.

Santo Maggio, president of Refco Capital Markets, was put on leave by Refco's board of directors on Oct. 10 when it ousted Chief Executive Phillip Bennett, and accused him of hiding $430 million of debt from the company.

A third Refco employee also has been put on leave, the newspaper said, citing people familiar with the matter. This employee may have done the bookkeeping that let Bennett mask debts, it said, citing two people familiar with the matter.

Maggio's cooperation might help investigators determine how Refco slid into bankruptcy, just two months after conducting its initial public offering and one week after disclosing the Bennett debt.

<snip>

The newspaper report was issued the same day that U.S. broker-dealer Interactive Brokers Group said it will enter a confidentiality agreement with Refco, letting it conduct due diligence for its $858 million buyout offer for the company's coveted futures brokerage.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Bennett's Refco Scheme Exposed by Late-Night Hunch: `It Hit Me'

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aKGJd31_yYQM&refer=news_index

excerpt:

Investigations are being conducted by the U.S. Attorney in Manhattan and regulators including the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in Washington and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Washington-based regulator of futures brokers.

Trosten, then 35, left Refco on Oct. 12, 2004, after two years as CFO. Neither Refco's statement, which said he was leaving ``to pursue other opportunities,'' nor the IPO prospectus released six months later disclosed his $45 million payout.

Revealed at Hearing

That only became public after hearings in July and August for a National Association of Securities Dealers arbitration case, brought by a former Refco consultant over a finder's fee. Trosten disclosed the amount of the payment under cross-examination, says Sean O'Shea, a New York attorney who represented the consultant, Edward McElwreath.

In fiscal 2005, when he worked a partial year, Trosten was paid a salary and bonus totaling $2.2 million, according to Refco's IPO prospectus. That made him Refco's third-highest-paid executive, after Bennett and Executive Vice President Joseph Murphy, the head of Refco's futures unit.

In 2004, Trosten was paid $3.1 million, and in 2003 he was paid $2.8 million, making him the second-highest-paid executive in both those years.

``The real question is, how could that stuff be going on without this guy being in the know?'' says Brian Foley, an executive pay consultant in White Plains, New York. ``And if he wasn't in the know, how could this guy be worth so much money?''

...lots more...

[UpInArms]

29. Lack of hedge fund talent risks another Refco

Dearth of skills at firms leaves hedge fund industry open to fraud

http://www.financialdirector.co.uk/accountancyage/news/2144888/lack-hedge-fund-talent-risks

The £500bn hedge fund industry could be facing a raft of scandals similar to the one currently embroiling futures broker Refco, due to a severe skills shortage at accounting firms working with the funds.

Experts have warned that firms are finding it difficult to recruit staff capable of coping with the demands of assurance and advisory work around the funds, posing a substantial risk to investors and hedge fund managers.

The crisis over the lack of skills comes as market watchers grow increasingly concerned that hedge funds do not have the systems in place to keep track of activities and monitor risk and potential fraud.

The funds use increasingly exotic instruments and move rapidly. Without the appropriate back-office capacity in place to monitor such transactions, funds are left vulnerable to exploitation by unscrupulous individuals.

...more...

[UpInArms]

52. BAWAG says to sue over Refco, is selling loans

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T145421Z_01_VIE000251_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO-BAWAG-LAWSUIT-URGENT.XML

VIENNA, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Austrian bank BAWAG P.S.K. is preparing lawsuits over its involvement in the Refco Inc bankruptcy filing, and is in the process of selling its Refco loans on the secondary market, it said on Thursday.

"BAWAG P.S.K. is in close cooperation with top U.S. lawyers and is about to finalise lawsuits regarding the Refco case," BAWAG said in a statement. A spokesman said the bank would sue several parties, but declined to identify them.

BAWAG had lent 350 million euros ($424 million) to former Refco Chief Executive Phillip Bennett on the day he was suspended by his company and a day before he was arrested and charged with securities fraud.

...short blurb...

[UpInArms]

97. Firm: Refco treated CEO unit like its own

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/1310AP_Refco_Unit.html

NEW YORK -- When futures brokerage Refco Inc. discovered $430 million of uncollectible, hidden debt stashed away in Refco Group Holdings Inc. earlier this month, it characterized the company bearing its name as a separate entity controlled by ousted chief executive Phillip Bennett.

That may have left some on Wall Street with the impression that Refco Group operated outside the Refco sphere. Not so, says law firm Mayer Brown Rowe & Maw, which has worked with Refco for more than a decade.

The Chicago firm says it was Refco's practice to treat Bennett's privately held company as one of its own units - including picking up the tab for its legal bills. The revelation suggests Refco may have known more about Refco Group's activities - and possibly its monster debt - than it has so far let on.

The importance of questions over Refco's possible ties to Refco Group cannot be overstated, as the revelation of undisclosed debt at Refco Group paved the way for a massive customer exodus that drained funds from Refco accounts, forcing it into bankruptcy last week.

<snip>

"The only reason we have to believe that Refco Group Holding isn't a part of Refco is that now Refco is (now) saying that it's not a part of the company," Marino said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/26/AR2005102602255.html

Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.

U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households.

Bernanke's thinking on the housing market did not attract much attention before Bush tapped him for the Fed job Monday but will likely be among the key topics explored by members of the Senate Banking Committee during upcoming hearings on his nomination.

Many economists argue that house prices have risen too far too fast in many markets, forming a bubble that could rapidly collapse and trigger an economic downturn, as overinflated stock prices did at the turn of the century. Some analysts have warned that even a flattening of house prices might cause a slump -- posing the first serious challenge to whoever succeeds Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan after he steps down Jan. 31.

Bernanke's testimony suggests that he does not share such concerns, and that he believes the economy could weather a housing slowdown.

...more...

[Birthmark]

23. Oddly, Helicopter Ben followed the housing bubble...

...statement with, "These are not the droids you want." Economists were surprised to find out later that those were in fact the droids they wanted. Who knew?

[Maeve]

26. More parsing--"national" vs "in many markets"

The US is so big and diverse that there won't be an overall bubble burst, but local pops are another matter altogether.

The devil is in the details.

[Nickster]

28. Lots and Lots and Lots of local pops. But not everything, no no no.:-)

[UpInArms]

24. Printing Press Warm-Up: Fed adds reserves via 14-day system RPs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T122911Z_01_N27425153_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it was adding temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through 14-day system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 3.875 percent, above the Fed's target of 3.75 percent for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

49. US Treasuries add to gains after home sales data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T142148Z_01_NYG000077_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-HOMES-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices added to early gains Thursday on weaker-than-expected September new home sales, which suggested that an important pillars of the U.S. economy might be showing signs of weakening.

The government said sales came in at a 1.222 million unit annualized rate, below economists' expectations of a 1.3 million reading. August sales were revised downward to 1.197 million, meaning that month-on-month, sales actually rose.

Benchmark 10-year notes, also reflecting early buying related to an accounting investigation of General Motors, were trading 8/32 higher in price to yield 4.55 percent, compared with 4.59 percent on Wednesday.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

109. Treasurys finish higher, pulling yields back from 6-mo. high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38652.6586346991-847880679&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- The Treasury market ended with gains Thursday as worries about an SEC investigation of General Motors and mixed U.S. economic data gave a bearish bond market pause. The 10-year note finished up 6/32, adding more than $1.25 per each $1,000 to its value. It was yielding 4.56% vs. 4.6% Wednesday.

[UpInArms]

57. Printing Press Rev Up: U.S. Treasury Dept to sell $36 bln bills on Monday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T150650Z_01_WBT004135_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department said on Thursday it will sell $19 billion of three-month bills and $17 billion of six-month bills on Monday, Oct. 31.

The bills will be issued on Thursday, Nov. 3.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund an estimated $30.35 billion of publicly held 13- and 26-week bills maturing Now. 3 and to raise about $5.65 billion of new cash.

The three-month bills mature on Feb. 2, 2006, while the six-month bills mature on May 4.

Treasury said $5.50 billion of the three-month bills can be excluded when bidders calculate their net long positions. The net long reporting threshold for the three-month bills is $6.65 billion and for the six-month bills it is $5.95 billion.

Noncompetitive bids must be received by 12:00 noon EST (1700 GMT) and competitive bids by 1:00 p.m. (1800 GMT).

...more...

[UpInArms]

133. Foreign central banks again buyers of US debt -Fed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T203011Z_01_NYG000078_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-FOREIGNERS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Foreign central banks were
buyers of U.S. government debt for the sixth straight week, as
purchases of agency paper far outpaced those of Treasuries,
which barely rose, Federal Reserve data showed on Thursday.

The Fed said its overall holdings of Treasury and agency
debt kept for overseas central banks rose by $9.686 billion in
the week ended Oct. 26 to stand at $1.479 trillion.

The breakdown of custody holdings showed overseas central
banks bought $9.641 billion in agencies but only added $44
million to their holdings of Treasuries, in an out-sized echo
of recent buying patterns.

The full Fed report can be found on:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/

...more...

[UpInArms]

134. Fed - one large 1-day net reserve-projection miss

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T203005Z_01_N27254862_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-RESERVEPROJECTIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it had one large one-day net miss in reserve-projection in the week ended Oct. 26.

The miss occurred on Wednesday, Oct. 26 when float was lower than expected and the foreign repos pool was higher than expected, resulting in a decrease in reserves.

Transportation float averaged about $710 million per day, with the highest on Tuesday, Oct. 25 at about $2.7 billion due to inclement weather in the South and Northeast.

Hmmm... that happened last week, too. And that was the same excuse they used - inclement weather in the South and Northeast. :eyes:

[AnneD]

147. They are saving the paper..

for Chopper Ben anf recycling the reports ;)

[UpInArms]

31. Jumping the Freddie Mac ship?

Freddie Mac exec quits to join Washington Mutual

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38652.3814328472-847835899&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Freddie Mac (FRE) on Thursday said principal accounting officer John Woods quit to join Washington Mutual (WM) . Woods, senior vice president, corporate controller and principal accounting officer for the McLean, Va. mortgage financing firm, has resigned from his position at the company effective Oct. 28. He will serve as corporate controller of Washington Mutual. The financing giant said it has yet to name a successor. Shares rose 82 cents to $60.75 on Tuesday.

[UpInArms]

34. US House passes bill to overhaul mortgage finance

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/4692ef52-46c2-11da-b8e5-00000e2511c8.html

The U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill on Wednesday overhauling supervision of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that gives a new regulator sweeping authorities over the mortgage finance giants’ management and operations.

The bill was approved by a wide margin -- 331 to 90 -- and came over the objections of the White House.

Passage marks the farthest that efforts to improve the companies’ oversight have advanced in years of discussion on Capitol Hill. It also shifts the focus to the Senate, where separate legislation remains stalled due to the inability of Republicans and Democrats to strike consensus.

While some Democrats criticized late changes to provisions, the bill received broad support as the bill’s author stressed the importance of improving regulation following multibillion-dollar accounting scandals at Fannie and Freddie.

“They take on great risk and accordingly deserve the highest standard of regulatory oversight possible,” said Rep. Richard Baker, the Louisiana Republican who has spearheaded efforts to improve regulation of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. “This bill achieves that.”

...more...

[54anickel]

83. Whad-da? This just seems so F'd up. I found this confusing so I

went to look for articles at other sites trying to figure this out, but they all say the same.

It doesn't go far enough? Even the WH says it's too weak. :wow: OMG, this scares the crap out of me cuz I think I agree with that.

It doesn't create an affordable housing fund? Wasn't that originally the main intent of these GSEs?

And :wtf: is this part about?

Democrats focused debate on an agreement struck among Republicans to prohibit groups involved in voter-registration activities from receiving money from an affordable housing fund under the bill. That restriction came as part of a provision aimed at giving hurricane victims priority in receiving affordable housing funds.

Democrats called the language unfair to groups engaged in voter-registration activities.

Other amendments failed, including one to eliminate the companies’ ability to borrow from the U.S. Treasury and a measure that would have stripped from the bill a provision that would allow Fannie and Freddie to buy higher-cost loans in pricey markets.

That's the part I went to check on for a better explanation on the Dems stance regarding this, cuz I don't think the money should be used for "politics" either. Sure, voter registration is important and all, but come on!

This Bloomberg article explains it a little bit more, and I can sort of see where Dems are coming from, but I still don't quite swallow the idea of using funds meant for affordable housing for "politics".

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a27rXgBlyPec&refer=us

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac own or guarantee almost half the $7.6 trillion U.S. mortgage market. They make money on the difference between the returns on the mortgages they buy from lenders and their financing costs.

The bill passed the House after lawmakers approved an amendment that directs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to channel 3.5 percent of profits to a fund for expanding affordable. Many Democrats opposed provisions barring politically active non- profit groups from using the estimated $350 million fund.

The bill in the Senate doesn't create a housing fund. The Senate hasn't scheduled a vote on its version, which was approved by the banking committee in July.

Representative Barney Frank of Massachusetts and other Democrats say the Republican restrictions on the housing fund will hamstring non-profit groups that are vital to increasing affordable housing. The amendment disqualifies groups that engage in lobbying, get-out-the-vote campaigns and other political activity from tapping the fund.

Republicans claim the legislation without restrictions could allow the groups to use the money as a ``slush fund'' to finance political activism.

I am soooooo confused :crazy:

[AnneD]

114. I heard a tad of this on CSPAN

the amendment would have excluded some groups (such as Catholic, Methodist, etc too) that build low cost homes for the poor because they also encourage voting.
Many of the groups do not promote one party over the other but encourage responsible citizenship. But we all know what will happen when the poor become homeowners and figure out who has been screwing them all these years. It is an effort to kepp them poor and disenfranchised.This odious amendment was slipped in by the GOP leadership. The bill without that amendment got good bipartisan support.
But let me tell you, this is SOP with these folks. They take a good bill and use it as a Trojan horse to slip in what they want. They already slipped in a voucher to private schools via the relief to Katrina bill. Those DEM's liked the bill and were on their toes to catch that one and yet they are made to look bad. I think the vouchers were discovered after bill had passed. Hope that clears it up for you.....

[54anickel]

121. Thanks AnneD. Yep, that clears that part of it up. So the GOP

"politicalized" something that really wasn't "political" at all.

[AnneD]

122. they got caught trying to slip a mickey.....

into a Shirley Temple.




Like the military can access childrens phone numbers in the no child left behind bill.......need I say more.

[cosmicdot]

144. so, that amendment passed with the bill? n/m

[AnneD]

146. Can't remember

but bear in mind....it is a GOP controlled Congress.

[cosmicdot]

149. I suspect it did ~ thanks. n/m

[UpInArms]

33. Oil Gains; U.S. Fuel Output Slow to Recover as Demand Rebounds

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=acgwRFIzmVTs&refer=latin_america

Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil and heating oil rose for a second day in three on concern U.S. refineries aren't recovering fast enough from the hurricane season to meet demand for fuel as winter approaches.

U.S. refineries operated at 80.7 percent of capacity last week, compared with 97.1 percent before Hurricane Katrina at the end of August, the Energy Department reported yesterday. Implied demand for distillates, including heating oil and diesel, rose 10 percent last week, the biggest gain since January.

``The hurricane season is very far from being behind us in terms of crude, products and natural gas supplies,'' said Deborah White, a commodities economist at Societe Generale SA in Paris. ``Refineries that are back in operation haven't been able to return to full rates. It's difficult to meet demand.''

Crude oil for December delivery rose as much as 84 cents, or 1.4 percent, to $61.50 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, where it was up 55 cents at 12:09 p.m. London time. Oil has more than doubled from two years ago, although it's dropped 14 percent from the record $70.85 it reached Aug. 30.

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. Dec Crude @ $61.25 bbl - Nov NatGas @ $13.75 - Dec NatGas @ $13.77

10:02am 10/27/05 DEC CRUDE CLIMBS 59C TO $61.25/BRL IN EARLY NY TRADE

10:02am 10/27/05 NOV NATURAL GAS FALLS 32C TO $13.72/MLN BTUS

10:02am 10/27/05 DEC NATURAL GAS DOWN 29C AT $13.77/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

59. Dec Crude @ $60.80 bbl - Nov NatGas @ $13.60 mln btus

11:15am 10/27/05 DEC CRUDE CLIMBS 14C TO $60.80/BRL AFTER $60.25 LOW

11:15am 10/27/05 NOV NATURAL GAS DOWN 44C, OR 3.1%, AT $13.60/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

96. Dec Crude Closes @ $61.09 bbl - Nov Htg Oil @ $1.8539 gal

2:52pm 10/27/05 DEC CRUDE CLOSES AT $61.09/BRL, UP 43C, OR 0.7%

2:52pm 10/27/05 NOV HEATING OIL FINISHES AT $1.8539/GAL, DOWN 0.22C

[UpInArms]

100. Nov NatGas Closes @ $13.832 mln btus

3:04pm 10/27/05 NOV NATURAL GAS FALLS 20.8C TO END AT $13.832/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

35. pre-opening blather

9:15AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0.

9:03AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. The stage remains set for stocks' lower start as traders digest Exxon Mobil's (XOM) Q3 results; the company fell $0.07 short of analysts' EPS expectations. Perhaps further contributing to the early tone is some uneasiness ahead of the latest natural gas inventory report, which is due out at 10:30 ET. Prior to that release, the Sept. help wanted index (consensus 36) and Sept. new home sales (consensus 1250K) will hit the 10:00 ET wires.

8:35AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.5. The cash market remains headed for a lower open. Reports that General Motors (GM) has received subpoenas from the SEC regarding its pension accounting and insurance practices contributes to the early bearish tone. GM's shares have dropped 4% this morning. At the same time, the news has sparked a light safe-haven rally in the Treasury market. Separately, jobless claims fell 28K last week, to 238K (consensus 340K); durable orders declined 2.1%, more sharlply than the 1.2% decline that economists had estimated.

7:56AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Futures trade suggests a lower start for stocks today, alongside crude's rise to $61.20/bbl and ahead of several reports. In particular, Exxon Mobil (XOM) is slated to release its Q3 earnings report before the open; analysts expect the company to deliver EPS of $1.39. Several pieces of economic data are also due out this morning, with the first round - Sept. durable orders and last week's initial claims - scheduled for 8:30 ET. Economists expect respective reads of -1.2% and 340K.

[UpInArms]

36. 9:33 EST opening in the red

Dow 10,326.41 -18.57 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 2,096.09 -3.96 (-0.19%)
S&P 500 1,190.82 -0.56 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.548 -0.43 (-0.94%)

NYSE Volume 28,982,000
Nasdaq Volume 35,882,000

[UpInArms]

37. WorldCom Settlement: Investment banks to pay most of $651M pot

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B85A06D65%2D0411%2D41D1%2DB718%2D41AD1BABC88B%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The former investment bankers for WorldCom Inc. have agreed to pay most of a $651 million settlement with a group of institutional investors that lost money when the once high-flying telecom firm filed for bankruptcy more than three years ago, according to the law firm leading the class action.

The settlement covers losses for investors related to bond issues and stock between 1998 and 2001, according to William S. Lerach, the lead attorney in the case. The settlement, which does not include legal fees, was reported early Thursday by The Wall Street Journal. Read Wall Street Journal Story.

The settlement covers 32 individual lawsuits and 60 different institutions, including the California Public Employees' Retirement System, the California State Teachers' Retirement System, insurance giant American International Group Inc. (AIG) and public pension funds from Illinois, West Virginia and Alaska.

The settlement encompasses claims against former WorldCom officers and directors but will be mostly paid by 17 investment banks and securities firms involved in underwriting the bonds, with J.P. Morgan (JPM) and Citigroup Inc. (C) expected to pay the lion's share.

...more...

[UpInArms]

38. Amvescap outflows continue Investors have taken out $12.5 billion in fund

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B5C88B534%2D7E96%2D43BA%2DB70D%2D6203C8F0E59A%7D&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Amvescap PLC, the owner of mutual-fund groups Invesco and AIM, were pressured Thursday after the group failed to stem fund outflows during the third quarter.

Amvescap (AVZ) (UK:AVZ: news, chart, profile) saw $4.3 billion in outflows during the quarter, predominately in the U.S., where investors have been withdrawing assets following its role in a market-timing scandal.

Amvescap last year agreed to pay $355 million to U.S. regulators. The Securities and Exchange Commission alleged that the company entered into 40 undisclosed market-timing agreements in Invesco funds and 10 undisclosed market-timing agreements in AIM funds.

Market timing involves selling of mutual-fund shares to profit from the differences between foreign and domestic markets. The practice is illegal if a fund company allows only certain investors to engage in those trades.

Amvescap said U.S. investors withdrew $3.8 billion from AIM funds during the third quarter and $2.1 billion from Invesco funds. In the U.K., where it didn't face allegations of market-timing abuses, Invesco pulled in $1.8 billion in new assets.

For 2005, U.S. investors have taken $17.2 billion out of Amvescap-managed funds, partly offset by $5.1 billion in British and Canadian new business.

...more...

[UpInArms]

43. 10:07 EST no joy - no bounce

Dow 10,308.48 -36.50 (-0.35%)
Nasdaq 2,091.41 -8.64 (-0.41%)
S&P 500 1,189.52 -1.86 (-0.16%)
10-Yr Bond 4.563 -0.28 (-0.61%)

NYSE Volume 316,951,000
Nasdaq Volume 233,535,000

10:00AM: Moving lower, each of the indices remain in the red. Early leadership is absent, with the Materials sector's 0.5% gain placing highest on account of Dow Chemical's (DOW 46.25 +1.40) 3.1% earnings-induced jump. Ahead of the bell, the company delivered Q3 EPS that beat estimates by $0.07. Only two other sectors stand positive: Healthcare has recovered to a 0.3% gain, while Energy has risen 0.4%. While gains are modest, so are losses at this point; of the seven lagging sectors, Utiltites fares worst with its 0.4% decline. NYSE Adv/Dec 985/1595, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 768/1581

9:45AM: As futures trade had presaged, the equity market started the session on the downside. Third quarter earning reports continue to flood the wires; while the vast majority are good, news that the SEC has issued General Motors (GM) subpoenas regarding its pension liabilities accounting practices has stolen the early focus, and traders have sent GM shares down about 4%. With respect to the early earnings reporters, Dow Chemical (DOW), Verizon (VZ), Aetna (AET), and Raytheon (RTN) are amongst the upside announcers. Exxon Mobil (XOM) also delivered its Q3 results. Although the Dow component missed analysts' EPS expectations by $0.07, digestion of the company's 75% year-over-year profit growth has overshadowed the earnings miss. Separately, oil action weighs on sentiment, with crude and gasoline both heading higher. Anticipation of the latest natural gas inventory data, which will be released at 10:30 ET, has perhaps further curbed early buying action.

[UpInArms]

51. 10:37 EST bleeding continues

Dow 10,290.87 -54.11 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,082.70 -17.35 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,186.58 -4.80 (-0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.554 -0.37 (-0.81%)

NYSE Volume 557,341,000
Nasdaq Volume 390,609,000

(adding blather on edit)

10:30AM: The market's majors remain on a southbound path...

General Motors' (GM 27.65 -1.52) continued deterioration has shoved the Consumer Discretionary sector (-0.7%) into the last place slot, but especial weakness in homebuilders presents further challenge. With rising interest rates in the spotlight, each of the S&P's homebuilding issues have lost over 2% thus far today. Separately, the EIA has reported that natural gas inventory rose 77 bcf to 3139 bcf; analysts were expecting a rise of 66 bcf. This data is somewhat bearish for the natural gas market, and the commondity is currently trading down $0.69 to $13.35/ mln BTUs.NYSE Adv/Dec 1090/1736, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 863/1674

[UpInArms]

48. Gold futures resume climb, trade near $478

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB6B439C3%2D5578%2D4E17%2D9FFD%2D1B3D02B17DDA%7D&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures resumed their climb Thursday to trade near $478 an ounce as weakness in the U.S. dollar spurred fresh investor interest in the metals.

"The fact remains that the dollar and gold continue to move in lock step with one another," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities.

At last check, the dollar lost ground against the yen and the euro. Weakness in the greenback tends to drum up investment interest in the precious metals. See Currencies.

In metals trading, "the thing that really stands out here is the fact that the chart patterns for gold and silver have begun to mimic copper as the volatility continues to decline as their respective trends mature," said Doelling.

"Don't be surprised to see these patterns continue as the precious metals markets continue to log new multi-year and, eventually, new all-time highs," he said.

Gold for December delivery climbed as high as $477.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a level not seen since Oct. 17. It was last at $476.60, up $3.60. Prices lost $1.70 in the previous session, but rose in the three sessions prior to that.

...more...

[UpInArms]

60. Dec Gold @ $475 oz

11:14am 10/27/05 DEC GOLD UP $2 AT $475/OZ IN NY AFTER $477.80 HIGH

[ozymandius]

53. 10:58 numbers

Dow 10,296.79 -48.19 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,084.52 -15.53 (-0.74%)
S&P 500 1,186.96 -4.42 (-0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 45.44 -0.47 (-1.02%)
NYSE Volume 703,019,000
Nasdaq Volume 493,288,000

[UpInArms]

62. blather

11:00AM: Nine of ten economic sectors are presently trading below the flat line and tug the indices lower. Supported by a pair of strong earnings reports amid several subgroups, as well as the positive stance of nearly all of its bellwethers, Financials (+0.2%) stands as the lone bright spot. This morning, Countrywide Financial (CFC 31.47 +1.17) matched analysts' expectations, following a solid Q3 report and announced 1 bln share buyback from Moody's (MCO 55.06 +0.92) last night. Adding further upside are MetLife (MET 50.31 +0.94) and Franklin Resources (BEN 90.60 +2.88), respectively up 1.4% and 3.1% as investors anticipate their upbeat earnings reports after the close. Separately, the bond market's action today may be helping the sector; while yielding 4.56%, the 10-year is up six ticks and faring better than yesterday.NYSE Adv/Dec 955/1985, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 753/1915

[UpInArms]

55. Is the VAT our future?

11:00am 10/27/05 OECD CALLS FOR OVERHAUL OF TAX CODE, MOVE TO VAT TAX

11:00am 10/27/05 OECD CALLS FOR MORE ACTION TO CUT U.S. FEDERAL BUDGET GAP

11:00am 10/27/05 OECD: U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AT 7% OF GDP AT END '06

11:00am 10/27/05 OECD SEES U.S. ECONOMY ON SOLID GROWTH TRACK THROUGH 2006

OECD: U.S. economy on solid growth track through 2006

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38652.4585581713-847849129&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economic expansion should continue on a solid growth track despite the effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the OECD said in its latest report card on the U.S. economy. U.S. GDP growth in 2006 was forecast at a 3.5% rate. Once again, the OECD expressed concern about the U.S. current account deficit, which is projected to approach a record 7% of GDP by the end of next year. While a sharp drop in the dollar is an ever-present risk, OECD officials said the timing of any adjustment remained cloudy. The OECD recommended an overhaul of the U.S. tax code, including elimination or reduction in popular tax breaks from mortgages and home equity loans, and a move toward a consumption, or value-added tax.

[UpInArms]

72. NutJobs say that buying house discourages savings

That OECD thing? Here's what they are:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BF4C4EF6F%2DF007%2D402F%2DA7C7%2D739F3B533A07%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

The OECD is a forum for the world's 30 largest free-market economies to discuss policies to enhance economic growth.

:rofl:

Free-Marketeers! Corporatists! Anti-Humanists!

These freaks should go and stow their heads up their arses.

ah - but here's some more of their goop:

The OECD recommended an overhaul of the U.S. tax code, including elimination or reduction in popular tax breaks from mortgages and home equity loans, and a move toward a consumption, or value-added tax.

These two provisions encourage consumers not to save money, the OECD said.

[54anickel]

78. Yee-haw!!! Another milestone. It's like watching the odometer on an

old beater truck rolling over and being absolutely amazed.
"The ol' gal is still runnin' and still doesn't burn a drop of oil".

[AnneD]

80. Hey UIA...

let's ask a few questions...is this a progressive or regressive (ans. regressive) what are they pushing (ans VAT) what is their afilliation (ans GOP). I would say that the answer is yes if they continue to hold power. I think it was Reagan that first proposed a flat tax and since then they have had wet dreams about this sort of tax 'reform'. We have already begun shifting the tax burden from investments (and inheritance) to wages. This VAT and taking away mortgage tax deduction would be the coup de gra (sorry forgot Fr. spelling) to the middle class.

[Gronk Groks]

115. Let me guess...$8,017,345,159,154.86 = National Debt??

...(faint).

[UpInArms]

128. yeppers - that is the National Debt - and for a bit of history

here are the numbers for 2000 and 2001

09/28/2001 $5,807,463,412,200.06
09/29/2000 $5,674,178,209,886.86

[Gronk Groks]

138. $2.4 TRILLION ???? In FOUR years ???

I knew it was bad. That is insane. Why hasn't the world currency markets dumped dollars like pre-WW II Deutsch-marks.

[UpInArms]

139. the dollar stood at 120 on the index of currencies in January 2001

we are now around 88.5 - 89.0 with brief glimpses above that for moments when the currency traders make a few more on their speculative trading.

According to the Washed-Up Has-Been Partisan Hack, the dollar is "too strong" and thought a year ago that it should fall another 5-10% to balance our our trade imbalances, but today the chorus was warming up to sing a new verse of "don't let it bring you down" or "another bottle of beer on the wall" or some such nonsense.

So when you think that the dollar in your wallet doesn't go as far as it used to, just know that you are right. Dollar devaluation is another form of inflation, a more insidious and hidden form as most people don't even understand why it costs more to consume the same amount. When you go to the grocery store and there are oranges from Australia (instead of Florida, Texas or California), just know that it took more dollars to buy those Australian oranges (just one example).

(edited for clarification)

[Gronk Groks]

140. Okay, so the dollar has lost about 25% of it's value in about ...

...6 years. Then how come the Fed says that inflation is just 3-4% a year? Are they just pulling numbers out of the air???

[UpInArms]

141. those inflation numbers are completely lacking

honesty and integrity.

All costs of living are stripped and incorrectly weighted.

[Gronk Groks]

142. Black and white...they are lying to us...

...and the Corporate Media isn't calling them on it.

Tell me again, what are news outlets suppose to do ????

[UpInArms]

143. you answered your own question there - by the use of the term

"corporate media"

Friedman stated: "there is one and only one social responsibility of business–to use it resources and engage in activities designed to increase its profits

Corporate media, by and through its ownership has only one social responsibility: to increase profits

That pretty much precludes the honest and open debate of what is truly happening within the borders of this country.

Until we have the Fairness Doctrine returned (removed under RayGun in 1986 with the help of Robert Bork) we will not have a fair and honest media accounting.

[cosmicdot]

145. United States gov't pays 25% or this org's budget

http://www.oecd.org/document/0,2340,en_2649_201185_2509279_1_1_1_1,00.html

looks like OECD is just another economic elite spoke in the globalization wheel ... WTO, NAFTA, IMF, World Bank ..... who runs the world?

OECD Funding
How is the OECD funded?

The OECD is funded by its member countries.

National contributions to the annual budget are based on a formula related to the size of each member's economy.

The largest contributor is the United States, which provides 25% of the budget, followed by Japan.

With the approval of the Council, countries may also make separate contributions to particular programmes or projects.

The size of the annual budget, currently about US$200 million per year, as well as the programme of work to be undertaken, is decided by member countries in the Council.

You will find the scale of member countries' contributions to the OECD core budget and other such information under the itle 'Overview of the OECD' in the box at the bottom of the About page.


The US representative to OECD in Paris is ....



http://www.usoecd.org/staff/ambassador.html

Ambassador Constance "Connie" A. Morella (Republican, Maryland) was appointed by President George W. Bush to serve as United States Permanent Representative to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and unanimously confirmed by the Senate on July 31, 2003. She is the first United States Ambassador to the OECD ever to have served in the United States Congress.

From 1987 until January 2003, Ambassador Morella represented Maryland’s 8th Congressional District in the U.S. House of Representatives where she developed a national reputation as a leading advocate for women, children and families. Ambassador Morella was elected to the Maryland General Assembly in 1978 and became the first woman member of the Assembly ever elected to the U.S. Congress.

``````````
The OECD's sister agency, the International Energy Agency, is the primary international vehicle to maintain oil market stability in times of crisis.

http://www.usoecd.org/home/benefits.html


Laura Bush speaking at the OECD

[UpInArms]

65. Fears grow that CIA leak case may hurt sentiment

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B1AEB0434%2D2127%2D4724%2D9622%2DAD7505239EAB%7D&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks lost ground Thursday on concern over General Motors Corp's financial health, with talk of the possible indictement of key Bush administration officials also a focus for investors.

<snip>

"The news overnight about GM really spooked the market," said Jim Awad, chairman of Awad Asset Management, referring to speculation the carmaker may file for bankruptcy, a rumor the company has since denied. "It was a reality check for people. We have a large company on the ropes and its downfall would have implications for the financial system and for the company's suppliers."

In addition, the market is worried about the possible indictment of key Bush administration officials over the disclosure of the identity of a CIA agent.

"It not only damages the Bush agenda which is favorable for the capital markets, but when we went through this with Nixon in the seventies, it started to affect business-consumer psychology."

...more...

[UpInArms]

93. Plame charges could roil markets

Dollar sentiment at risk if White House aides indicted

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B21FC6170%2D1063%2D43B1%2DAE76%2D698026A1AF0E%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - The U.S. dollar, Treasurys and American stocks could sell off if top White House aides are indicted on charges they leaked the identity of a CIA employee, analysts said Thursday.

Speculation has mounted that formal charges could be announced Friday by special counsel Peter Fitzgerald, the final day of a grand jury session.

Karl Rove and I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby are the prime targets of Fitzgerald's investigation, press reports have said. Rove, a long-time political adviser to Bush, is deputy White House chief of staff. Libby is chief of staff for Vice President Dick Cheney.

Any charges could create "political paralysis" at the White House, said Brian Dolan, head of currency research at New Jersey-based trading firm Gain Capital.

Charges would be "detrimental to the dollar, a psychological blow," said Alex Beuzelin, senior market analyst with Ruesch International in Washington. They would distract Bush from important economic issues like high energy prices, patches of slower growth and deficit reduction, he said.

The dollar's year-to-date run may be in jeopardy should confidence in Bush's ability to steer the economy be shaken.

A weaker dollar, because it cuts U.S. purchasing power, could raise inflation risks at a time that the Federal Reserve is working furiously to stamp out its spread from high energy prices.

...more...

I am soooo confused! :crazy:

I thought that SnowJob and all the WH economists and Meanspin and all the talking heads WANTED a weaker dollar!

Now they are saying that: A weaker dollar, because it cuts U.S. purchasing power, could raise inflation risks at a time that the Federal Reserve is working furiously to stamp out its spread from high energy prices.

:shrug: :eyes:

[ozymandius]

119. I was confused until a few days ago.

The doubletalk has been annoying and stupid until I realized what is going on. Three things: (1) They want their cake (in the form of cheaper debt through a weaker dollar) and (2) they want to eat it too (through cheaper U.S. exports that would benefit big business). The third thing about hurting the common U.S. citizen: they don't give a shit about that. That's just lip service full of key words to appease those who devote 1/10th of 1% of their attention to these matters.

Honestly, I think this administration wants to hurt people.

[UpInArms]

137. This administration does want to hurt people

and they truly believe (imho) that they can do just that without any damage to themselves or where they live.

They are criminally narcissistic.

[AnneD]

148. I seem to remember on this thread that they referred to

the rest of us as tax units...am I remembering that right. That should settle any doubts.

[UpInArms]

150. the term was "one fodder unit"

http://greatchange.org/ov-martin,case_for_sedition.html

excerpt:

The Bush idea was (I remember Jeb used to say this) that, "Look, you hit them in every single hat they wear." That was the idea. He used to call them fodder. You hit the fodder in their hats as Taxpayers. You hit them in their hats as Investors and Savers. You hit them in their hats as Insurance Policy Owners through all these insurance scams his brother was involved in. Then there was, of course, Jeb's International Medical Corporation. Jeb also liked health care scams. But that was the idea the Bushes had, that you take the American taxpayer (which they called "One Fodder Unit," or OFU) and you hit them in every single hat they wear.

I don't know where the term came from, but "One Fodder Unit" became a popular term on the Republican cocktail party circuit in 1985. According to them, each individual American citizen equals One Fodder Unit.

[UpInArms]

69. Fat? Over 40? Don't bother applying for a Wal-Mart job

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article322562.ece

If you are on the wrong side of 40 and not as fit as you'd like to be, don't bother applying for a job at Wal-Mart. That is the message for workers in America - revealed in a secret memo, laying out a plan by Wal-Mart to make it harder for older, less healthy people to get a job at one of its legions of stores in the US.

The memo, written by Wal-Mart's vice-president in charge of benefits, says undesirable applicants could be discouraged by making physical activity part of the job, such as asking cashiers to demonstrate they are also able to collect trolleys. The tactics appear to be designed to drive down the bill for health care and other employee benefits at the company, which made $10bn (£5bn) in profits last year.

For the world's largest retailer, which owns Asda in the UK, the leaking of the memo could hardly have come at a worse time because it is has embarked on a campaign to improve its public image.

For Wal-Mart's mounting critics, the document is proof that it is the world's most controversial company, which locks its workers in overnight while they stock shelves and aggressively resists the formation of unions among its employees.

...more...

[54anickel]

79. Awwww, damn! Guess I'll have to cross them off my list of places to

apply to. I don't know about your area, but here in WI, that would count out just about everyone that's currently working at our local Squal-Mart from what I remember. Actually, that's pretty much everyone I see working at MOST of our local non-botique type of stores.

[54anickel]

88. Looks like applying for Medicaid might be out for me as well...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x1880615

[UpInArms]

70. 11:54 EST How deep and wide is that pothole?

Dow 10,284.54 -60.44 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,082.67 -17.38 (-0.83%)
S&P 500 1,186.46 -4.92 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 4.569 -0.22 (-0.48%)

NYSE Volume 1,021,964,000
Nasdaq Volume 709,406,000

11:30AM: Little has changed for equities; the indices have bounced off of recently touched lows, but remain within the hour's very tight trading range. Financials has retained its gain, while Materials and Telecom have each recently risen out of the red and to 0.1% gains. Healthcare vacillates around the unchanged mark, with strength in HMOs challenging weakness in biotechs, healthcare distributors, healthcare suppliers, and pharmaceuticals. Specifically, a 3.0% surge in Aetna (AET 84.15 +2.45) shares, following its upside earnings report, has attracted buyers to the group and lifted each of the market's managed care issues today.NYSE Adv/Dec 1004/2001, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 816/1901

[UpInArms]

74. 12:13 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,295.11 -49.87 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,085.14 -14.91 (-0.71%)
S&P 500 1,188.07 -3.31 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.565 -0.26 (-0.57%)

NYSE Volume 1,105,361,000
Nasdaq Volume 767,770,000

12:00PM : Red and tightly range-bound, the major averages have been driven lower by General Motors' (GM) deterioration and a sharper than expected decline in Sept. durable orders. Crude's early rise further deterred buyers this morning; reports of a better than expected build in natural gas supply has pushed energy prices south, yet the overall market appears to have taken little notice. In the thick of the Q3 earnings season, over 150 companies released results ahead of the bell. The vast majority continues to exceed expectations and reflect solid growth, but news that the GM has received subpoenas from the SEC regarding its pension liabilities accounting practices sparked a 4% plunge its shares that weighs heavily upon the overall market. Offering some offsetting gains within the Dow are Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Verizon (VZ) - both of which announced upbeat earnings reports this morning. Although the energy giant fell $0.07 short of analysts' EPS estimates, its 75% profit growth has captured more attention and enticed buyers. Despite its relative strength, however, selling action and energy price pullbacks spare only one of the Energy sector's (-1.3%) issues and has shoved the sector into the laggard seat. At the same time, those price pullbacks have not helped Consumer Discretionary. GM's effect and significant declines in homebuilders, sparked by lower than expected new home sales last month, have pushed the sector 0.9% lower. Declines in semiconductors and broad-based selling efforts that have been perhaps exacerbated by an 11% earnings-related slide in Baidu.co (BIDU) shares takes 0.6% from Technology, a gain that the Industrials sector matches. Healthcare, though off 0.1%, has been somewhat supported by a rise in HMO's following Aetna's (AET) better than anticipated Q3 report. Leadership lacks today, with just two sectors above the flat line. Aside from limiting the Dow's - and the Tech sector's - slide, Verizon's ahead of consensus earnings has fueled the Telecom sector's 0.3% gain. The Financial sector's 0.3% rise, while modest, has been sustained over the course of the morning and serves as the strongest opposition to broad bearishness. While the solid stances of its bellwethers lend significant support, upside earnings reports from Countrywide Financial (CFC) and Moody's (MCO) - and optimism ahead of after hours reports from MetLife (MET) and Franklin Resources (BEN) - sustains the sector's gain. NYSE Adv/Dec 967/2084, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 807/1967

[UpInArms]

81. 1:15 EST red spreading across the floor - getting a bit slippery

Dow 10,285.50 -59.48 (-0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,081.77 -18.28 (-0.87%)
S&P 500 1,186.39 -4.99 (-0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.569 -0.22 (-0.48%)

NYSE Volume 1,347,661,000
Nasdaq Volume 926,947,000

1:00PM: Equities have remained static since the last update... The Treasury market halted its week-long decline this morning, and has held onto its gains this afternoon. Trade turned into a light safe-haven rally, sparked by news that GM's pension accounting methods are under investigation by the SEC, and aided by the durables data. Further, oversold conditions - the 10-year's (+03/32) 4.57 % yield has not been seen since March - have perhaps lured bond traders back to the table today. The 5 (+03/32) and 30-years (+08/32) are also faring better today, respectively yielding 4.43% and 4.78%.NYSE Adv/Dec 1046/2068, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 842/2001

12:30PM: Range-bound trading persists...

While 18 of 30 Dow components extend losses, the reversal of Exxon Mobil (XOM 56.02 -0.18) - which accounts for about 3% of the overall market - weighs heavily. The 75% profit growth announced this morning offset a $0.07 EPS miss and attracted early buyers. However, initial reaction to comments during the company's recently concluded conference call has sent the stock south. Specifically, Exxon stated that it will take more time to reach pre-hurricane production levels and that reduced volume and higher costs will impact Q4. The company has not issued Q4 guidance at this point.NYSE Adv/Dec 1042/2042, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 810/1994

[ozymandius]

85. less "static" at 1:31

Dow 10,270.54 -74.44 (-0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,075.54 -24.51 (-1.17%)
S&P 500 1,184.38 -7.00 (-0.59%)
10-Yr Bond 45.65 -0.26 (-0.57%)
NYSE Volume 1,415,467,000
Nasdaq Volume 990,425,000

[ozymandius]

86. blather

1:30PM: Digging deeper, the averages face mounting pressure across the broad market. Enjoying its earnings-inspired bounce, Verizon (VZ 31.02 +0.43) leads the Dow and pairs with A.I. DuPont (DD 41.59 +0.09) in offering the only gains in excess of 1.0%. Buoyed by VZ's 1.4% rise, Telecom currently sits just above the unchanged mark. Verizon, at the same time, serves as the Tech sector's brightest spot, but is unable to counter wide-spread selling that leaves over 80% of its constituents submerged. With respect to relative strength in DD shares, the company benefits from another session of buying interest that its upside earnings report spurred Monday. On account of its performance and an earnings-driven jump in Dow Chemical (DOW 45.44 +0.59), the Materials sector's (-0.4%) slide has been kept in check.NYSE Adv/Dec 1042/2115, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 758/2125

[54anickel]

87. Ozy, did you check out the Up/Down volumes and Adv/Dec stats?

NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 933 (28%) 737 (24%)
Declines 2227 (67%) 2155 (71%)
Unchanged 125 (3%) 129 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 308 (22%) 194 (19%)
Down Vol* 1059 (76%) 781 (79%)
Unch. Vol* 9 (0%) 4 (0%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 34 39
New Lo's 175 94

[ozymandius]

104. my my my - those are some interesting stats.

Those in advance really stand out. The blather should have some insightful news about exactly who is advancing. Whatchwanna bet that energy leads the way?

EDIT: I just caught up on my blather reading and it says that insurance stocks are leading the way. Energy down by 1.1%.... Imagine that!

[54anickel]

89. Someone's primin' the pump at 2:00

Dow 10,289.10 -55.88 (-0.54%)
Nasdaq 2,079.42 -20.63 (-0.98%)
S&P 500 1,186.27 -5.11 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 45.67 -0.24 (-0.52%)
NYSE Volume 1,545,675,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,083,184,000

[UpInArms]

91. 2:30 EST no fairy dust in sight

Dow 10,277.26 -67.72 (-0.65%)
Nasdaq 2,076.14 -23.91 (-1.14%)
S&P 500 1,185.09 -6.29 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond 4.571 -0.20 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 1,667,592,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,171,774,000

2:00PM: Although moving of of their lows, the indices continue to hover within a narrow range...

With the price of crude running back north, retailers have sunk nearly 2%. The decline teams with a 2.5% slide in homebuilders and GM's 5.6% plummet in tacking an additional 1.6% onto the Consumer Discretionary sector's 11.0% year-to-date loss. Of the S&P's retail index, Circuit City is the only issue trending positive. Interestingly enough, shares have risen 0.5% today after Bank of America downgraded the stock to Sell from Neutral yesterday. Apparel and accessories, off 4.5%, occupies the market's worst-performer slot. Alongside oil's rise, gasoline similarly continues to gain; while natural gas ticks downward in the wake of the EIA's latest inventory stats, prices are still up about 40% since late August.NYSE Adv/Dec 963/2213, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 748/2155

[54anickel]

92. Tomorrow may be interesting if we have indictments coming out.

Wonder if they'll hold off until late in the day? I'm guessing it might turn out to be one of those bad weekends to hold stocks. :eyes:

[loudsue]

94. Hmm....Looks like blood in the water today.

:kick::kick::kick:

[54anickel]

84. Could Asia's 'savings glut' melt away?

http://business-times.asia1.com.sg/sub/news/story/0,4574,174262,00.html?


BEN Bernanke, who has been nominated to succeed Alan Greenspan as Federal Reserve chairman, is what you might call a thinking man's central banker (though how long he will be able to indulge the habit once he assumes high office is another matter). It was he who first put the issue of asset inflation (surges in stock, land or real estate prices) on the table, and it was he also who linked the enigma of low global interest rates to Asian surpluses.

As is now well known, Mr Bernanke has argued that Asia's 'excess savings' allow the US to fund its current account deficit (now running at a record 6 per cent-plus of GDP) while preserving relatively low long-term interest rates in the US, via the Treasury market. On this thesis, the current account deficit is sustainable and the dollar is under no great threat, so long as Asia does not change its ways.

It is not only Mr Bernanke (currently chairman of the US president's Council of Economic Advisors) who believes this. A group of eminent economists recently authored a paper by the Reinventing Bretton Woods group arguing that Asia has taken the place of post-war European nations in forming a periphery group that aims at building up external surpluses via exports to the US until such time as domestic capital accumulation takes over investment.

Against such intellectual defences, pressure in the US Congress for China to be forced to revalue the yuan sharply (leading inevitably to an appreciation of other Asian currencies) appears crude and unthinking. Global financial imbalances can best be addressed through changes in savings and consumption patterns rather than by extreme exchange rate adjustments, more thinking individuals argue.

more...

[UpInArms]

90. Fidelity probe widens: paper

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-27T181855Z_01_ROB765896_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-FUND-FIDELITY.xml

BOSTON (Reuters) - A probe into gift-giving at Fidelity Investments could broaden as regulators look into whether traders at the fund company asked Wall Street firms to manipulate trades in order to boost their compensation, according to a newspaper report on Thursday.

The Boston office of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is getting in touch with brokerage firms, including S.G. Cowen & Co., to determine whether "best execution was sacrificed as a result of gifts," the New York Post reported, citing an anonymous source.

Traders at Fidelity, the world's biggest mutual fund company, forced brokerage firms to make false trades in order to make their volume weighted average price scores -- a measure used to determine how well a trader does -- look better, according to the paper.

In exchange, Fidelity traders would steer lucrative business to brokerage firms, the report said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

95. 2:58 EST a pothole inside the pothole? look out below!

Dow 10,259.01 -85.97 (-0.83%)
Nasdaq 2,070.71 -29.34 (-1.40%)
S&P 500 1,182.56 -8.82 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.565 -0.26 (-0.57%)

NYSE Volume 1,805,094,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,272,038,000

2:30PM: Heading back towards session lows, extended declines within the Consumer Discretionary sector (-1.6%), and Energy's 1.1% loss, drags the indices lower. While the market has spent the entire day submerged, it still has managed to fare better than major European averages. At the close of its most recent session, Britain's FTSE 100 lost 0.9%, while the German Dax fell 1.9% and France's CAC gave up 1.7%. At this point, the S&P 500 has slipped 0.5%. In addition, U.S. blue chips are outperforming mid and small cap issues; the S&P 400 Midcap Index is off 1.4%, while the Russell 2000 has declined 1.8% on the day.NYSE Adv/Dec 989/2209, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 754/2160

[UpInArms]

98. 3:12 EST investors head for the exits

Dow 10,251.81 -93.17 (-0.90%)
Nasdaq 2,068.52 -31.53 (-1.50%)
S&P 500 1,181.56 -9.82 (-0.82%)
10-Yr Bond 4.563 -0.28 (-0.61%)

NYSE Volume 1,891,500,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,338,495,000

3:05PM: With Financials' fall, the indices fade further...

Life and health insurers have remained the Financial sector's brightest pocket today - and all year - and have joined with modest rises in several other subsects (i.e., specialized financial, thrifts and mortgages, asset management) in supporting the sector. Prudential (PRU 71.72 +1.54) extends its upside today, UnumProvident (UNM 19.76 +0.43) offers a respectable gain, and traders have sent MetLife (MET 50.51 +1.14) shares north ahead of its after hours earnings report. Strong downward pressure exerted by American Express (AXP 48.98 -1.16) and American International Group (AIG 63.16 -0.34), however, trump the aforementioned gains. Separately, American Express stands as one of the Dow's worst performers.NYSE Adv/Dec 951/2273, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 733/2204

[54anickel]

101. Oh my, did someone yell "FIRE"?

[UpInArms]

102. I do believe they did! Look at the head wound on the Nasdaq

3:17

Dow 10,247.08 -97.90 (-0.95%)
Nasdaq 2,065.54 -34.51 (-1.64%)
S&P 500 1,180.26 -11.12 (-0.93%)
10-Yr Bond 4.556 -0.35 (-0.76%)

NYSE Volume 1,927,066,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,371,327,000

[54anickel]

103. Ewww, that's gonna need some stitches! 82% DOWN Volume - Ouch

[ozymandius]

106. Jeebus! Are people selling the blue chips again to cover losses on shorts?

Just wondering.

[UpInArms]

105. 3:30 EST plumbing the depths in the final stretch

Dow 10,249.40 -95.58 (-0.92%)
Nasdaq 2,067.42 -32.63 (-1.55%)
S&P 500 1,180.94 -10.44 (-0.88%)
10-Yr Bond 4.558 -0.33 (-0.72%)

NYSE Volume 2,011,567,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,443,004,000

3:25PM: Carving out yet new lows, the market extends is declines across the board just ahead of the close. Every sector is now negative, With Consumer Discretionary (-2.0%), Energy (-1.8%), and Technology (-1.1%) doing the most damage. Pervasive bearishness is evidenced by the market's breadth. On the NYSE, declining issues outpace advancers 23-to-9. Decliners on the Nasdaq, meanwhile, have a 23-to-7 edge over advancing counterparts.NYSE Adv/Dec 909/2335, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 680/2291

[54anickel]

111. Late day vultures picking at the remaining end-trails...oops - nevermind

that was short lived! 2 minutes later and it was all back downhill. Guess the flesh was too rotten even for the buzzards.

[54anickel]

107. Euro at Crossroads (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie102705.html

Yet another battle royal has hit the scene. Such battles make up a long list, whether with TNote yield, S&P500 defense, gold price support, copper price breakout, bankers index defense, General Motors demise, Delphi failure, crude oil defense, natural gas or unleaded gasoline explosive moves, yen turnaround, housing index bump & run, Fanny Mae stock price, etc. My eye has been on the euro currency in the last few weeks. Since June, when the euro weakened, the gold price rallied upward. In these last few weeks, when the euro strengthens, the gold price has rallied upward. Call this a notable change in the wind direction. The gold price is consolidating in euro terms after a powerful upleg since August. These topics are fully covered in the November Hat Trick Letter issue.

The USDollar index, faulty as it is (being basically an "anti-euro index") from its 1960 decade adherence to trade weights, shows as much resistance at DXY=90 and support at EURO=120, each a reflection of the other critical line. Given the profit-taking and consolidation in the gold market since the 480 level was touched a few weeks ago, we have clear identification of critical lines of defense, support, and resistance for gold. See the pie chart for how absurd any dollar index is which has no weight for China, and a weight more than four times larger for Europe than Japan.

The Euro Central Bank at the end of September turned down the opportunity to cut interest rates. Some expected the ECB to cut, as FOREX professionals had sold down the euro currency in anticipation of an event which did not occur. In response to the decision of no action, the FOREX bid up the euro above 121 suddenly. For the second time since summer, the 120 level was rebuffed. Critical support has been set at 120 in a clear fashion. Back in early June, the euro was under siege from lost confidence after the French and Dutch NON votes for central power in Brussels. It was my expectation that the euro would successfully defend the 120 level in midsummer, and it did so, much to my satisfaction. The sale of truckloads of gold bullion by the ECB was used to purchase euros in that defense. So much for lost confidence. The last thing their officials want is a run on their young currency, which would force them to raise interest rates in desperation. In September it was my expectation that the USFed would herald an end to rate tightening, in view of economic slowdown and monumental hurricane relief and reconstruction. That gathering policy formation did not occur.

Instead, the USFed seems to have responded to monumental irresponsibility by the USGovt administration and Congress on spending. In recent weeks, the euro has dabbled with a 119 handle. Again, FOREX experts are calling for 115, just like they did in June. My forecast is that they will be wrong once again. Curiously, US Senators are talking up a responsible reaction on spending, with cuts and more prudent appropriations to spending. Could it be that Chairman Greenspan read the riot act to certain key Administration and Congressional leaders, promising the USFed would continue upward pressure on interest rates as long as the USGovt officials were acting like adolescents with credit cards at shopping malls??? Methinks YES.

Note the favorable technicals in the euro chart. We have a double bottom being formed in a classic "W" figure. We have the 20-week and 50-week moving averages leveling off. The 20wMA should flatten very soon, as older weekly numbers are replaced to newer equal numbers. The 50wMA should gradually decline enough for a moving average crossover. The slow stochastix are within a week or two from registering a crossover, good for a lift. Relative strength is also showing improvement. In the mid-June Hat Trick Letter issue, my forecast was stated, that "the euro currency will bounce from 120 to fill the gap to reach 125.5," which it did by late August. A base has been built, despite all the talk of a stronger USDollar.

more...

[UpInArms]

108. U.S. defaults still low, but costlier, Fitch says

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T193039Z_01_N27663964_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-RECOVERIES-FITCH.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. high-yield bond defaults remained well below historical averages in the first nine months of the year but were still costlier to investors, Fitch Ratings said in a report on Thursday.

Recovery rates, or the amount of a bond's original value recovered in a default, fell to 40 percent on average in the first three quarters from 62 percent in all of 2004, Fitch said. Fitch measures recovery rates by the price of a bond one month after default.

Bankruptcies in the airline industry and waning demand for riskier bonds both weighed on recovery values, Fitch said.

"Historically, when there have been multiple defaults in weak sectors facing systemic risks, recovery rates have fallen to below average levels," Fitch managing director Mariarosa Verde said in an e-mail response to a question.

"To the extent that we continue to see multiple defaults from distressed industries, we will very likely see lower recovery rates," she said.

...more...

[ozymandius]

110. lowering the bar toward the close

3:50
Dow 10,254.93 -90.05 (-0.87%)
Nasdaq 2,071.42 -28.63 (-1.36%)
S&P 500 1,182.01 -9.37 (-0.79%)
10-Yr Bond 45.58 -0.33 (-0.72%)
NYSE Volume 2,183,739,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,573,937,000

[UpInArms]

113. 3:54 careening past the 100+ down on the DOW

Dow 10,236.52 -108.46 (-1.05%)
Nasdaq 2,068.52 -31.53 (-1.50%)
S&P 500 1,180.07 -11.31 (-0.95%)
10-Yr Bond 4.558 -0.33 (-0.72%)

NYSE Volume 2,225,326,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,609,832,000

[54anickel]

117. That NYSE volume sure seem to have jumped since the 2:30 post.

[Gronk Groks]

123. Now THAT was messy...

...question: If indictments = loss of confidence in U.S. Government the driving force behind current sell-off or are underlying principles more to blame?

Amateurs have a hard time following the technospeak that you financial types using, which is why I try to shut up and keep out of the way.

[ozymandius]

125. two streams of rationale

Confidence in administration officials provides moral support for the instruments of government (i.e. money and the ability to govern). There are plenty of underlying principles to blame for a selloff. Cosmetic reasons such as faith in leadership, whether they be financial or political, are often to blame for a sudden drop over a day. If there were a sustained drop over several days, weeks and months - that would reflect corrupt market fundamentals at work. The numbers would be looking for a landing at that point as investors frantically look for safety.

However if you look at it this way - the markets have been spinning their wheels for five years. That suggests broken fundamentals too.

[Gronk Groks]

136. Market spinning its wheels = trading in a small range??

With the tax cut for the rich why isn't the stock market booming? I know Bush claimed that it prevented a recession when he had the cuts passed, but I never saw a boom...

[UpInArms]

112. SnowJob tearfully begs world not to abandon dollar

on the (hopefully) eve of indictments.

Snow says strong dollar in U.S. interest

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T194637Z_01_WBT004143_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-DOLLAR-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Thursday a strong dollar was in the U.S. interest and added that currency values should be set in open markets.

Answering questions on the White House Web site, Snow said it has been long-standing policy to support a strong dollar. He was responding to a questioner who asked why the U.S. Treasury was letting the dollar be devalued.

"We believe that a strong dollar is in America's national interest," Snow said. "This is a policy that we have had for some time and continue to support."

He added: "Currency values should be set in open, competitive markets, reflecting underlying economic fundamentals."

Isn't this absolutely in opposite of everything this hack has been spewing since he crawled into the bowels of the Whitehouse?

[54anickel]

116. Huh? I thought he gave up Rubin's "strong dollar" rhetoric long ago.

Must smell trouble a-brewin'.

Good grief - reflecting underlying economic fundamentals. Sheesh Snow, careful what you say. Those fundamentals point to a worthless buck!

[UpInArms]

118. this sack-o-shit and his buddies have been the ones to undermine

the underlying economic fundamentals and it only knows how to talk out of its arse.

[ozymandius]

120. More rabbit hole logic.

It is contrary to everything Snowjob has been belching over the past two years. He openly advocated abandoning the strong dollar policy established by Rubin. He must think we're all as stupid as his boss if he believes that everyone will forget two years of quotes.

[ozymandius]

124. the evidence: May 19, 2003 - here's the contorted logic

In sum: the dollar should "feel good" and be hard to counterfeit.

THE WHITE HOUSE has abandoned verbal support for a strong dollar, the
Treasury secretary indicated. John Snow said the government no longer
measures the currency's strength by its market value, focusing instead
on such traits as public confidence.

May 19, 2003

By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL


DEAUVILLE, France -- The Bush administration has abandoned the
eight-year-old U.S. strategy of verbally supporting a "strong" dollar in
foreign-exchange markets, Treasury Secretary John Snow indicated during
the weekend.

While insisting the U.S. still has a "strong-dollar policy," Mr. Snow
redefined what that means in comments to reporters at an economic summit
here. He said the U.S. government no longer measures the dollar's
strength by its market value against the other major currencies -- the
long-accepted premise of that policy. Instead, Mr. Snow said "strong"
refers to such aspects of the dollar as the confidence it inspires in
the public and its resistance to counterfeiting.

http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/pen-l/2003w20/msg00007.htm

[Gronk Groks]

127. Huh??? Sounds like doublespeak for...

...we changed economic policy and don't want to tell anyone...

[UpInArms]

131. SnowJob gets "no housing bubble" memo and spews on cue

Snow sees no US housing bubble; backs strong dollar

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T204244Z_01_N27495370_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-DOLLAR-UPDATE-2.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Thursday the Bush administration backed a strong dollar and said he saw no sign of a bubble in U.S. housing prices.

The U.S. Treasury chief was answering questions on a White House Web site (http://www.whitehouse.gov/ask/live.html), including one from a questioner who wanted to know why the U.S. Treasury was letting the dollar become devalued.

"We believe that a strong dollar is in America's national interest," Snow said. "This is a policy that we have had for some time and continue to support."

He added that currency values "should be set in open, competitive markets, reflecting underlying economic fundamentals." The U.S. dollar has fallen substantially in value against other major currencies over the past two years as U.S. trade deficits have mounted steadily.

Asked why U.S. deficits have climbed so high, Snow said much of the blame lay overseas, where consumer demand was weak.

...more...

:crazy:

[ozymandius]

126. closing numbers

Dow 10,229.95 -115.03 (-1.11%)
Nasdaq 2,063.81 -36.24 (-1.73%)
S&P 500 1,178.90 -12.48 (-1.05%)
10-Yr Bond 45.58 -0.33 (-0.72%)
NYSE Volume 2,395,430,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,718,617,000

blather to come

[ozymandius]

129. closing blather

:hi: Have a great evening!

Close Dow -115.03 at 10229.95, S&P -12.48 at 1178.90, Nasdaq -36.24 at 2063.81:

The indices never gained any traction Thursday and ultimately broke down in the afternoon amid disappointment that there wasn't any follow-through to the rally earlier in the week that was spurred by the nomination of Ben Bernanke to replace Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman.The tone was set prior to the start of trading as news that General Motors (GM 27.19 -1.98) received a subpoena from the SEC relating to various issues, including its pension accounting, cast a pall on the futures market and overshadowed another large batch of better than expected earnings news. The latter development aside, tentative Q4 guidance from several companies capped the market's enthusiasm for the Q3 results. Verizon (VZ 30.76 +0.17) and ExxonMobil (XOM 55.60 -0.60) were winning standouts in the early-going after reporting their earnings results, but like the broader market, faded in the afternoon sell-offs.The drop in XOM contributed to a 1.8% decline in the Energy sector. Following a larger than expected build in natural gas supply, energy prices pulled back for part of the session, yet crude and gasoline futures ended up closing higher for the day. The energy price action weighed on the retailers. Along with GM and weakness in the homebuilders, the retailers paced a 1.9% drop in the Consumer Discretionary sector. Technology levied a weighty 1.1% loss, roiled by Baidu.com' (BIDU 70.35 -10.70) earnings report and significant declines in semiconductors, networking, and hardware. Separately, Verizon's modest gain helped limit the Telecom sector's (-0.2%) slide. Materials had been supported by Dow Chemical (DOW 45.20 +0.35), which beat Q3 expectations before the bell, but the sector still posted a 0.8% loss. After Aetna (AET 83.80 +2.10) delivered upside earnings, HMOs recovered and held Healthcare higher. Sharp declines in pharmaceuticals and biotechs won out, though, and the sector slipped 0.5%. While leadership never emerged today, relatively modest losses in the Financial sector (-0.39%) kept things from looking even worse in the broader market. A pair of positive earners - Countrywide Financial (CFC 30.57 +0.27) and Moody's (MCO 54.39 +0.25) - along with optimism ahead of reports from MetLife (MET 50.60 +1.23) and Franklin (BEN 88.68 +0.96) supported the sector but ultimately could not combat a 2.5% drop in American Express (AXP 48.90 -1.24). Separately, Treasuries halted their week-long decline, as oversold conditions and a sharper than anticipated decline in durable orders ushered bond traders back to the table.DJTA -1.63, DJUA -1.30, DOT -1.06, Nasdaq 100 -2.02, Russell 2000 -2.12, SOX -2.72, S&P Midcap 400 -1.75, XOI -2.28, NYSE Adv/Dec 879/2389, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 702/2316

[UpInArms]

130. pre-emptive sell-off?

Was it a pre-emptive sell-off of the marketplace based upon the feeling that this destructive cabal is about to get their arses indicted?

[54anickel]

132. Feels like it, doesn't it? Tomorrow will certainly be interesting all

around the markets.

[UpInArms]

135. US junk bond funds report $90.5 mln weekly outflow

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T202607Z_01_N27474401_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-JUNK-AMG-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - U.S. junk bond mutual funds reported $90.5 million in net outflows in the week ended Wednesday, down from a $255.4 million outflow the prior week, AMG Data reported on Thursday.

Junk bond mutual funds have reported net outflows for seven straight weeks and have lost more than $10 billion in outflows year-to-date.

Junk bonds are rated below investment-grade and carry high yields to compensate for their risks. Junk bonds have lost favor with investors since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in June 2004, boosting yields on safer securities and making riskier bonds less appealing by comparison.