STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 31 October

[ozymandius]

Monday October 31, 2005

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 83 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1775 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1474 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1436
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 28, 2005

Dow... 10,402.77 +172.82 (+1.69%)
Nasdaq... 2,089.88 +26.07 (+1.26%)
S&P 500... 1,198.41 +19.51 (+1.65%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.57% +0.01 (+0.20%)
Gold future... 474.80 -0.80 (-0.17%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Housing, Has It Topped?

Whether we are in the markets or not, we all generally have an interest in the housing market as it touches us all. I know that on the Alabama Gulf Coast, the prices of single family homes have, in many cases, doubled within the last year. But, things seem to be slowing down a bit now. I’m hearing from some of the realtors that the market is not growing at the same rate in which it was. This could simply be a slow down or it could be a more meaningful top. Today, we will take a simplistic look at important support and resistance levels on a couple of housing related indexes.

In doing so we will begin with the Housing Index. I have marked the last three intermediate term cycle lows with a blue “I.” The first one you see on this chart occurred in March 2003, the second one occurred in May 2004, and the last one occurred April 2005. Notice that each one of these intermediate term cycle lows occurred at a higher level than the preceding low.



-cut-

Lastly, we have the Dow Jones Home Furnishings Index. In the September 30th Wrap Up, we looked at the Dow Jones Home Furnishings Index and showed that the 2005 recent support level, or intermediate term cycle low, had been breached. I also showed that the 2004 low was the next important support level. I said that “this index is clearly showing us that the consumer is pulling in his horns and if the 2004 lows are breached, it will mean that further tightening should be expected.” As you can see in the chart below, the 2004 intermediate term lows have now also been violated. Sure, this index is oversold and could bounce, but this violation has much longer-term implications for this index.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[wordpix]

57. good, in CT you have to pay $1/2MM for a shack

[ozymandius]

2. THE TWO BENS (government counterfeit)

This currency, as we manage it, is a wonderful machine. It performs its office when we issue it; it pays and clothes troops, and provides victuals and ammunition; and when we are obliged to issue a quantity excessive, it pays itself off by depreciation.
~ Ben Franklin, April 1779

These words, spoken by one of America’s founding fathers acknowledges, one of the privileges of government: access to the monetary printing press. In June 22, 1775, the Continental Congress issued two million dollars on bills of credit. As the Continental Congress began making preparations for war with England, it needed a source of revenue to help pay for the coming conflict. Since taxation was a root of the conflict, raising taxes wasn’t even considered. Instead, Congress resolved to pay for the war through the issuance of paper money. In essence Congress did what governments have done throughout all of history, which was to debase the currency through the issuance of excess quantities of money. The first Great American Inflation was about to begin.

Paul Revere made the plates to issue the new currency and a committee of 28 individuals, which included Benjamin Franklin, had the responsibility for signing and issuing the new money. Initial issuance was two million dollars. As with all paper currencies, which have no backing, it was never enough. Congress immediately began to crank up the printing press. In theory the States were supposed to enact taxes to retire the bills.

-cut-

The immediate result was that the paper currency began to depreciate in value. “In January, 1781, Captain Allan McLane paid $600 for a pair of boots and $10 for a skein of thread.”<2> From its original printing in June 1775, the Continental dollar had lost over 66% of its value by the following year. To combat a depreciating currency, the States made the new paper currency legal tender for all debts and purchases. They enforced the new currency with price controls and instituted fines for refusal of acceptance as legal tender. As the government printed ever-larger amounts of money, they enacted laws making it a crime to refuse payment, to charge lower prices for specie, and to demand a premium for payment in paper. However, this did not stop inflation. Individuals took evasive action.

-cut-

Our present “Ben” was acknowledging an irrefutable law of money. This law is better known as the “Quantity Theory of Money.” Under the “Quantity Theory of Money” and under a system of fiat money as we have today, the supply of money can be increased to any amount the government desires. The historical tendency of government is to accelerate the quantity of money in circulation as a means of covering government’s voracious appetite for expenditures. What isn’t feasible under a system of taxation is made up through money creation. The only limit to the quantity of money created is the destruction of its value. If a government creates too much money, it has the risk that debasement runs ahead of the government printing presses. At that point money ceases to be accepted as a means of payment. The result is it loses its character as money. In the end the government's counterfeiting scheme is exposed and stopped.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/2005/1028.html

[ozymandius]

3. Fed expected to raise interest rate to 4%

The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates on Tuesday and signal further increases, after recent speeches by Fed policymakers highlighting concerns about inflation risks.

While there has been no indication that the Federal Open Market Committee will change its judgment that monetary policy remains "accommodative" and that it will continue to raise rates at a "measured" pace, there is a widespread feeling that part of the statement will need to change soon.

A decision on Tuesday to raise rates to 4 per cent which would be the 12th consecutive quarter-point rate increase is unlikely to provoke controversy. Mark Olson, the Fed governor who voted against September's increase, is likely to fall back into line, given good recent data.

One concern is that the federal funds rate is no longer obviously well below the so-called "neutral" level, at which monetary policy neither restricts nor stimulates activity. But there does not yet appear to be a consensus on what should happen next, and the current language in the Fed's statement is seen as acceptable for now, with the FOMC likely to raise rates again in December.

more

[UpInArms]

41. RPT--Tug-of-war begins on Fed nominee's political voice

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T140212Z_01_N30373164_RTRIDST_0_CONGRESS-FED-REPEAT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - A quiet tug-of-war has begun over the role presumptive future Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke will play in Washington budget debates, with both conservatives and liberals hoping he'll be one of their own.

Conservatives express confidence that Bernanke, if confirmed by the Senate to succeed Alan Greenspan next year, will do nothing to upset the Bush administration's apple cart when its comes to its tax-cutting agenda.

Liberals, in contrast, hope Bernanke, who associates say lacks clear ideological stripes, will be a voice of fiscal restraint and a counterweight to Bush's tax-cutting zeal.

Long-time colleagues and past comments from the nominee suggest the politically moderate monetary expert may hew to a middle ground, stopping short of comments that could be seen as advocating particular policies but speaking freely in broad terms when he thinks budgetary discipline is needed.

In essence, supporters say, Bernanke is likely to be more restrained in offering budgetary advice than his predecessor.

Greenspan has often been criticized for stepping outside the Fed's bailiwick in weighing in on contentious fiscal debates -- from advocating tax cuts to arguing the merits of private accounts under the Social Security retirement program.

...more...

[ozymandius]

4. OPEC Urges Oil Companies to Invest Profits

RIMINI, Italy - Oil companies should use profits to increase their refining capacity and help ease pressure on oil prices, an OPEC official said Sunday.

"This is a chance for them to invest," said Adnan Shihab-Eldin, acting secretary-general of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

Several major oil companies reported surging third-quarter profits this week.

"We've been saying this past year that refining has to increase," Shihab-Eldin said on the sidelines of a conference on long-term issues of energy supply being held in the Italian resort town of Rimini. "There needs to be more refining and upgrading."

more

[ozymandius]

5. A PRIMER ON GASOLINE PRICES

Gasoline, one of the main products refined from crude oil, accounts for just about 17 percent of the energy consumed in the United States. The primary use for gasoline is in automobiles and light trucks. Gasoline also fuels boats, recreational vehicles, and various farm and other equipment. While gasoline is produced year-round, extra volumes are made in time for the summer driving season. Gasoline is delivered from oil refineries mainly through pipelines to a massive distribution chain serving 167,000 retail gasoline stations throughout the United States. 1 There are three main grades of gasoline: regular, mid-grade, and premium. Each grade has a different octane level. Price levels vary by grade, but the price differential between grades is generally constant.

What are the components of the retail price of gasoline?

The cost to produce and deliver gasoline to consumers includes the cost of crude oil to refiners, refinery processing costs, marketing and distribution costs, and finally the retail station costs and taxes. The prices paid by consumers at the pump reflect these costs, as well as the profits (and some- times losses) of refiners, marketers, distributors, and retail station owners.

In 2003, the price of crude oil averaged $28.50 per barrel, and crude oil accounted for about 44% of the cost of a gallon of regular grade gasoline (Figure 1). In comparison, the average price for crude oil in 2002 was $24.09 per barrel, and it composed 43% of the cost of a gallon of regular gasoline. The share of the retail price of regular grade gasoline that crude oil costs represent varies somewhat over time and among regions.

-cut-

Why do gasoline prices differ according to region?

Although price levels vary over time, Energy Information Administration (EIA) data indicate that average retail gasoline prices tend to typically be higher in certain States or regions than in others (Figure 2). Aside from taxes, there are other factors that contribute to regional and even local differences in gasoline prices:

more

[ozymandius]

6. Profits Likely Won't Mean New Refineries

WASHINGTON - Don't expect the oil industry to boost fuel production merely to deflect criticism from Congress about soaring prices and profits.

Energy executives and analysts insist that in spite of the supply crunch that has kept oil above $50 a barrel for much of the year, demand and prices are still prone to ups and downs, so the industry should not rush to drill wells and expand refineries just because it is flush with cash.

"A surplus of supply is not good for the industry," Shell Oil Co. president John Hofmeister said in an interview on Friday. "Just as a surplus of demand is not good for industry. We strive for balance."

-cut-

Washington's complaint that the market might not be working well, however, grew this summer after hurricanes Katrina and Rita exposed the industry's vulnerabilities, causing supply disruptions that sent gasoline prices above $3 a gallon. The backlash reached a bipartisan crescendo this week after Exxon Mobil Corp., BP Plc, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Chevron Corp. reported combined third-quarter profits of $29 billion.

more

[Mojorabbit]

7. Oil dips under $61

Good Morning Ozzy. I woke up out of a dead sleep and thought I'd peek in.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051031/bs_nm/markets_oil_dc;_ylt=AsiKTSNxMJkNN3ot_0myM6W573QA;_ylu=X3oDMTBiMW04NW9mBHNlYwMlJVRPUCUl
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil fell below $61 a barrel on Monday but prices remained stubbornly high as traders were torn between the potential for higher energy costs to curb consumption and the looming season of peak winter fuel demand.
ADVERTISEMENT

The market is alert to any softening in demand that might ease the global refining supply strains that took prices to record highs in July.

But robust third-quarter economic growth in the United States and a rise in Chinese energy use in September helped support prices.

U.S. crude slipped 65 cents to $60.57 a barrel by 1101 GMT. London Brent crude was down 68 cents at $58.74 a barrel.

U.S. light crude prices are down over $10 from their record high of $70.85 a barrel two months ago.

[UpInArms]

27. Dec Crude @ $60.58 bbl - Dec NatGas @ $12.69 mln btus

7:58am 10/31/05 DEC NATGAS DOWN 36.50C AT $12.69 PER MILLION BTUS

7:57am 10/31/05 DEC CRUDE DOWN 64C AT $60.58

7:58am 10/31/05 DEC UNLEADED GASOLINE DOWN 2.26C AT $1.643 A GALLON

7:58am 10/31/05 DEC HEATING OIL DOWN 2.58C AT $1.8177 A GALLON

g'morning Mojorabbit!

:hi:

[UpInArms]

62. Dec Crude @ $59.95 bbl - Dec NatGas @ $12.30 mln btus

12:00pm 10/31/05 DEC NATURAL GAS TRADES OVER 14% BELOW MONTH-AGO CLOSE

12:00pm 10/31/05 DEC NATURAL GAS DOWN 75.5C, OR 5.8%, AT $12.30/MLN BTUS

12:00pm 10/31/05 DEC CRUDE FALLS $1.27 TO $59.95/BRL AFTER 1-WK LOW OF $59.50

12:00pm 10/31/05 NOV HEATING OIL DOWN 3.3%; NOV UNLEADED GAS DOWN 2.7%

[AnneD]

50. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Thanks for the synopsis of the oil patch. That is a good one....
The past 5 years have been rough on the old bod. The stress of Bush in the WH has caused me to have high blood pressure. However, I now have the perfect stress buster. I got a sling shot monkey toy at our elementary school carnival. It is a monkey with a cap and aviator goggles (but they look like a bennie and thief's mask). When it's head is hit, it makes a jabbering sound. Needless to say, I call him George (everyone thinks I mean Curious George:evilgrin:) and now, every time I hear a stupid Dubya remark or action-I simply whack my monkey and listen to him squawk. I cannot tell you how much better I feel. I hope those of you with high stress levels will try this satisfying activity. Well, Happy hunting, watch out for the bears and remember to whack your monkey when you need too......

[Mojorabbit]

16. Oil Heads for First Two-Month Drop This Year; Supplies Increase

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell, headed for its first two-month decline in New York this year, as production recovers and supplies build with the U.S. hurricane season nearing an end.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries yesterday said there have been no buyers for the extra oil it began offering on Oct. 1. Crude has fallen about $10, or 15 percent, from a record $70.85 a barrel on Aug. 30, a day after Hurricane Katrina shut 95 percent of U.S. production in the Gulf of Mexico.

``The hurricane froth has been taken out of the market,'' said Peter Luxton, an analyst with Informa Global Markets in London. ``There's no need for OPEC to raise output. There's a view that there's plenty of supply around and the anxiety that distillates might not be adequate may prove overdone.''

[UpInArms]

18. Cheap oil may be thing of the past

http://www.floridatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051031/BUSINESS/510310310/1003

NEW YORK - While the most dire predictions have been largely dismissed as alarmist -- gasoline prices in the U.S. of up to $6 a gallon and crude oil climbing to $105 a barrel in 2007 -- analysts warn consumers could face new price spikes and won't soon be returning to pump prices that propelled the popularity of gas-guzzling SUVs.

The consensus is that the era of cheap oil for U.S. consumers, accustomed to some of the lowest prices in the industrialized world, is over, at least for the next few years.

"We have very little spare capacity internationally to provide enough crude oil to the system to tolerate any more of these types of disruptions," said Ken Miller, an analyst with the consultancy Purvin & Gertz.

<snip>

"The first line of defense used to be drawing on stocks, and the last was price," Goldstein said. "Today, there's not enough spare crude or refining capacity. So, there's only price that's left as the defense mechanism."

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. America's Energy Morass

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2005/nf20051031_4168_db016.htm

The world's largest oil companies reported profits last week, and what a quarter it was: Chevron (CVX ) was up 12% to $3.6 billion, BP (BP ), up 35% to $6.5 billion, and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS ), up 68%, to $9 billion. And king of them all, ExxonMobil (XOM ), saw profits soar 75%, to nearly $10 billion. That's an astonishing $150 million profit for every working day in the past three months.

It's great when General Electric (GE ) or General Motors (GM ) make money. That feels good for America. It's a different story when oil companies report profit gushers. That money is coming straight out of our wallets every time we fill up the tank.

The oil companies have been trying to defuse public anger about high gasoline prices all year by running advertisements discussing the supply and demand imbalance in world energy markets and how they are trying to fix it through new technologies and investments in renewable energy.

It's not working. Politicians are denouncing Big Oil on the steps of Congress. One cartoon circulating on the Internet parodies the novelty hit The Monster Mash. It features ExxonMobil's outgoing chairman, Lee Raymond, biting into a barrel of oil like Dracula.

On a more serious note, though, it's worth discussing how the nation got into this energy mess -- and what can be done to remedy it.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Valero Energy operating profit triples

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38656.3239752546-848226876&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) said Monday its third-quarter net income improved to $1.3 billion, or $4.37 a share, compared with $432 million, or $1.57 a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call expected Valero to earn $4.23 a share on average. Including a $621 million pretax charge related to inventory valuation, net income was $862 million, or $2.94 a share.

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

Last trade 89.71 Change +0.12 (+0.13%)

Happy Ending to an Ugly Week

http://www.dailyfx.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=4525&Itemid=39

Last week we concluded our commentary by stating,”We believe that event risk clearly lies with the greenback so caution should be the order of the day. “ Danger did indeed come to dollar bulls as almost everything from miserable consumer confidence numbers to the indictment of Vice President Cheney’s chief of staff conspired to put pressure on the greenback. Still most dollar longs must feel bloody but unbowed as the unit only managed to lose 95 basis points to the euro by the time trading ceased on Friday afternoon in New York. The fact that GDP printed at 3.80% versus consensus of 3.50% and whisper of even lower 3.30% was a huge positive surprise to the beleaguered dollar longs who were on the defensive for most of the week. The data showed that US consumer spending remains strong but reports last Thursday of a massive build up in inventories of New Homes, has led some analysts to question for how much longer the party can last. Indeed, a serious slowdown in the housing market will reverberate throughout the US economy putting into doubt all the rosy growth projections for next year.

Next week Personal Income and Personal Spending will be key to determining the true strength of the consumer while the expected Fed rate hike to 4% should provide further support to the dollar. If the greenback can’t break the 1.2000 level off those events, the woes of dollar bull may be just beginning.

...more...

Up to BOJ to decide when to end easy policy-Yosano

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T075443Z_01_TKX002166_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JAPAN-BOJ-YOSANO.XML

TOKYO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Japan's new economics and financial services minister Kaoru Yosano said on Monday it was up to the Bank of Japan to decide when and how to end its ultra-easy monetary policy.

"I think they will take appropriate monetary policy as Japan's central bank. It is up to the BOJ to decide how to conduct its quantitative easing policy," Yosano told a news conference after a cabinet reshuffle.

He was asked about his views on growing talk in markets that the central bank could end soon its four-year-old super-loose policy.

Fed to stay with measured U.S. rate hike tactics

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T002329Z_01_N28342304_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-REPEAT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to hike interest rates by a quarter percentage point to 4.0 percent when it holds its policy-setting meeting on Tuesday, and give no signal the campaign to tighten monetary policy is nearing an end.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will issue its interest rates decision after 1415 EST/1915 GMT at the end of the meeting, which will be the third from final gathering chaired by Alan Greenspan, who retires on Jan. 31.

President George W. Bush on Monday named Ben Bernanke as the next Fed chairman, subject to confirmation by Congress. Economists see the transition as another good reason to expect the U.S. central bank to remain on the inflation offensive.

"We expect the 12th consecutive increase in the target fed funds rate and really no change in the tactics deployed in recent meetings," said Lynn Reaser, chief economist at Bank of America Capital Management in Boston.

The Fed's statement accompanying the interest decision has stuck with a commitment to removing policy accommodation at a measured pace.

...more...

[UpInArms]

9. AXM Pharma to restate second-quarter results

6:40am 10/31/05 AXM PHARMA: Q2 IMPROPERLY RECORDED $1.4M IN EXPENSES

6:41am 10/31/05 AXM PHARMA CONDUCTING INTERNAL INVESTIGATION

6:39am 10/31/05 AXM PHARMA TO RESTATE Q2 RESULTS

6:40am 10/31/05 AXM PHARMA: Q2 OVERSTATED $2.8M IN REVENUE

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38656.2812677315-848225249&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- AXM Pharma Inc. (AXJ) said it's going to restate second-quarter 2005 results after improperly booking $2.8 million in revenue and $1.4 million in expenses. It'll conduct an internal investigation to discover why it booked the revenue and identify material weaknesses in internal controls.

[UpInArms]

10. RCM (client's) assets belong to Refco: Refco lawyer

http://today.reuters.com/investing/FinanceArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2005-10-29T001342Z_01_MOR538502_RTRUKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-REFCO.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A lawyer for Refco Inc. said on Friday that customers of its bankrupt broker-dealer, Refco Capital Markets, cannot withdraw their assets and are creditors, but lawyers for those customers disagree.

The issue is one of the thorniest in the collapse of Refco (RFXCQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research), which along with 23 units filed for bankruptcy protection on October 17 after its ousted chief executive, Phillip Bennett, was charged with fraud and customers fled.

However the question of who owns the assets is resolved, risk management experts said the Refco fiasco will make customers more choosy about which brokers they trade with.

"People don't want to go through this hassle again," said Brett Friedman, a managing director at Risk Capital, a risk management advisory firm.

Federal regulators are widening their investigation of the company. Refco's auditor, Grant Thornton, on Friday said regulators had contacted it.

<snip>

The number of creditors represented by the committee could grow dramatically if a judge finds that customers of Refco's unregulated, offshore broker-dealer are in fact unsecured creditors now, who are repaid only after the company pays back secured creditors like bank lenders.

<snip>

"Refco's argument may be correct, but many investors thought their assets were protected, so the details of what these investors were told and how their accounts were handled will be crucial," said Chester Salomon, a lawyer at Stevens & Lee representing several customers of Refco Capital Markets.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. Refco Bad Debts Started With Asian Currency Crisis, People Say

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=ax5Xyasrk4so&refer=home

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Refco Inc. racked up most of the losses that led to its collapse from companies crippled by the Southeast Asia economic crisis that began in 1997, people with knowledge of the matter said.

An internal probe of Refco's failure found that by 2000 eight companies in the region owed it about $300 million, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because the investigation isn't public. At least a third of that amount came from Repco Holdings Bhd., a Malaysian gambling and lumber company, the people said.

Refco was the biggest independent U.S. futures broker until it sought bankruptcy protection on Oct. 17, a week after disclosing that former Chief Executive Officer Phillip Bennett covered up $430 million of bad debts that dated back to 1998. New York-based Refco hasn't disclosed the origin of those losses.

``During the Asian crisis, we were very concerned that big investors could leave a firm like Refco holding the bag,'' said Michael Greenberger, a law professor who led the trading and markets unit of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a U.S. regulator of Refco, from 1997 to 1999. ``It sounds like Bennett may have avoided all that by covering those loans himself.''

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Refco case could end up damaging law firm, too

http://www.suntimes.com/output/herman/cst-fin-law31.html

Mayer Brown Rowe & Maw -- one of the biggest and best- connected law firms in the city -- could find itself mired in the widening scandal surrounding commodities brokerage Refco Inc.

<snip>

The loans sparked the interest of prosecutors and securities regulators, who are still investigating. Meanwhile, Refco's unraveling brought an avalanche of shareholder lawsuits. Some of the plaintiff's lawyers in those cases are now considering suing Mayer Brown, too.

"It is being very carefully looked at," said Mel Weiss, of Milberg Weiss Bershad & Schulman, a well-known securities plaintiff's firm.

Mayer Brown served as Refco's co-counsel on its initial public offering in August. It also prepared documentation of the loans that are now under scrutiny, according to Liberty Corner Capital, another company involved.

"When you have the law firm that represented the company on a public offering also drawing up documents on the activity that gave rise to the false statements, it gives rise to a lot of concern," Weiss said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. Complaint says Refco illegally shifted funds

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/brokerage/2005-10-30-refco-usat_x.htm

A commodities fund fronted by globe-trotting investor Jim Rogers began wiring $340 million to Refco two weeks before the futures-trading company revealed an accounting blunder that prompted a criminal investigation, its CEO's arrest and the firm's collapse in bankruptcy court.

In the chaotic days that followed, Refco repeatedly assured the Rogers group its funds were safe. Instead, Rogers alleges in a bankruptcy court filing, Refco illegally shifted the funds from a government-regulated account that management had no authority to tap, to a cash-squeezed offshore entity operating outside U.S. regulatory control.

Whether a victim of bad timing or misappropriation, Rogers — a self-described "adventure capitalist" known for sharing his worldwide odyssey in search of friends, fortune and fame — now finds himself lined up with hundreds of other Refco creditors in trying to get his funds' money back. If Rogers' funds had been left in the regulated unit, they would be unaffected by the Chapter 11 filing. That unit is being auctioned Nov. 9.

Rogers declined to comment for this story.

Hedge fund lawyer Michael Koblenz, a former enforcement attorney at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, terms "very serious" the allegation Refco diverted protected funds to an unregulated unit. Koblenz says a segregated account is "supposed to protect you — the customer — so you're not just a creditor hanging out in the wind."

...more...

[IChing]

31. Refco is a big scandal

Refco declared bankruptcy last week and now the
vultures are picking over the carcass. Now with the
company’s declared bankruptcy, former hedge fund
accounts effectively become unsecured creditors. That
is their new legal classification. They’ve liquidated
their offshore business. That division has now been
officially liquidated. There are no more account
holders. What account holders there were now become
unsecured creditors.

We don’t know yet if the money is gone, but it’s
likely that they liquidated that business under
pressure from both the SEC and CFDC to prevent any
calamities in the marketplace due to sudden unwinding
of derivative positions. This doesn’t necessarily mean
this money is missing.

My read on it, that you get by listening to
Bloomberg, is that Refco was quick to liquidate their
offshore, hedge fund account management business under
pressure from U.S. regulators, who knew that a simple
unraveling of that offshore business could have
created substantial market disturbances.

The SEC and regulators have some oversight
capacity. Not much, granted. But they do have some
oversight capacity. Domestically. Refco is a U.S.
corporation. They do have some oversight capacity,
even when it comes to the non-regulated hedge fund
business. They don’t have any regulatory capacity, but
they still have some oversight capacity.

And I think the deal was probably worked out,
which would make sense because it’s been done before:
The SEC and CFDC said that, if you don’t liquidate
this offshore business and make sure that liquidation
is orderly, then we’re going to renege on any
guarantees we, as federal agencies, have to proffer to
the regulated side of your business. They really have
tremendous leverage

Jimmy Rogers had 500+ million in Refco but who
really knows? His investors are probably wiped out.
Now that the company is in bankruptcy, you don’t know
what protection that offshore division has from U.S.
bankruptcy laws. You don’t know what the extent of its
liabilities or secured creditors were.

The J.C. Flowers hedge fund (Flowers is Malcolm
Forbes’ nephew) bought their regulated retail
commodity business. Look at it as Refco having A, B
and C divisions. What he bought was A, which was their
regulated commodity brokerage business, which would be
everywhere. That was what the SEC wanted sold away
from Refco first. so it didn’t get significantly
tainted, so Refco would lose all of its retail
clients.

Retail clients really don’t care if Refco went
under or not, as long as they are in a secured
position vis-a-vis CIPIC or any other government
guarantee. What difference does it make to them?
Apparently, according to what the SEC and CFDC have
said thus far, there was no problem with funds
segregation within their regulated businesses. Now,
that’s true; then Refco has got a problem with its
domestic businesses.

They have segregated the liabilities of the
derivatives from the rest of the assets of Refco. They
have effectively split off C so it doesn’t taint, or
doesn’t represent a drag on the regulated securitized
business that agencies of the U.S. government have to
protect. This is really a self-serving move by the SEC
and the CFDC. Who wants a billion-dollar hit on a
federally guaranteed insurance pool?

Refco’s out of business. That’s gone as an
entity. They’re not recovering it. Stock closed at 96
cents last week. They’re history.

What was important to the government is that
their regulated retail business survive. That’s going
to survive. It is also likely that their institutional
wholesale domestic clearing business will be sold to
another retail firm or a firm that has a complementary
type business like Goldman Sachs or Lynch or somebody.
That will take that off the hook, and it will take the
U.S. government and any guarantee pool off the hook
completely.

And the auditor Grant Thornton won’t fare very
well because the questions are going to be -- How did
they miss the hiding of losses when this Bennett
didn’t make it that hard to uncover what he was doing?
Since he was hiding the losses on the same day every
quarter, he didn’t even really hide it. I think the
reason he did that was to put the auditors on the hook
in order to muddy the waters. If you put the auditors
on the hook as much as possible, you deflect some of
the heat.

It should be remembered that Grant Thornton was
the auditor that gave the green light to the Refco’s
IPO and they are not going to survive this. Grant
Thornton is going to be another Andersen. By the time
the civil suits are through, I think Grant Thornton
will be history.

The CEO of Grant Thornton was bragging about how
he had enough capital to weather the storm, but I
don’t think they’re going to survive this. It’s loaded
with Bushonian Cabalists. They are loaded with
conflicts of interest vis-a-vis Merrill-Lynch and
Goldman-Sachs and Bank of America. The same companies
that were all the co-syndicators for the so-called
second Refco, when Refco was floated the second time.
This is all a very cozy little deal. When Refco got
floated the second time, it hid many sins and took a
lot of people off the hook.

If you look at the Refco filing, you’ll see, not
only did Bennett profit, but so did an awful lot of
people, who got out of what were likely going to be
worthless shares.

The key in spreading the liability around (and I
bet Bennett is going to use this as a defense unless
he gets some sort of a deal under the table from
somebody in the White House) is he’s going to
inculpate other people within the Cabal, saying that
they knew that the stock was going to be worthless the
minute the truth was revealed.

It was revealed last week where Bennett got the
money from, a bank in Austria called BAWAG. That’s why
he wanted to go to Austria. BAWAG is going to take it
on the chin for $400 million because the stock he
pledged on the loan is now virtually worthless. That
is what should be investigated. What is this BAWAG
bank? This is a deal where, once again, the Cabal
could get exposed if this Refco debacle isn’t quieted
up the right way.

[UpInArms]

37. What/Who is Bawag?

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/9827495/

From its lavish headquarters in central Vienna, it is hard to believe the bulk of Bawag's fortunes derive from activities as mundane as retail banking for blue collar workers, payments for trade unions and transactions processing for government agencies. But Bawag, the Austrian bank now ensnarled in the collapse of Refco, the futures broker, has always been a company full of contrasts.

A sponsor of music and the arts, the trade union-owned bank's holdings include the Bösendorfer concert piano company, purchased in 2002 as a "patriotic cultural investment", according to its annual report. At international banking functions, the company likes to draw attention to itself by setting up Viennese-style coffee houses for competitors to drop in.

Yet while managers such as Helmut Elsner, Bawag's former chief executive, may have mimicked the rarified world of investment banking with their three-piece suits and fat cigars, business at Austria's fourth biggest bank has traditionally been much more basic.

In spite of largely eschewing the highly lucrative push of bigger domestic rivals into eastern Europein recent years, Bawag's business mix has been buoyant enough to push up pre-tax profits by 16 per cent to €170m ($205m) last year.

But as investigators now try to unravel this month's collapse of Refco, it is Bawag's story of contrasts that has become one of the most intriguing features, as they attempt to grasp the links between the obscure Austrian lender and the international futures broker.

...more...

WSJ:Flottl linked to Refco scandal

http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051024/BUSINESS/110240157

Since a run-in with controversy in the world of money management about a decade ago, Austrian financier Wolfgang Flottl has cut a high profile in the worlds of Impressionist art and Manhattan charity balls he attends with his wife, Dwight D. Eisenhower’s granddaughter.

But now the 50-year-old son of a Viennese banker has surfaced as a player – whether in a major role or a bit part remains unclear – in the Refco Inc. scandal. He says he’s just a former customer, but his involvement adds to a long list of ties between Refco and a small Austrian bank his father once ran.

The commodities-and-futures brokerage firm spiralled into bankruptcy court this week, and its ousted chief executive, Phillip R. Bennett, faces a criminal securities fraud charge. He’s accused of hiding hundreds of millions of dollars in bad debts from investors in Refco’s August initial public offering of stock by secretly assuming them from the brokerage into a company he controlled. Through his lawyer, Mr. Bennett has denied wrongdoing.

Investigators are trying to figure out the origin of those debts, which totalled $430 million when Refco’s board disclosed them this month, plunging the company into crisis. The debts stemmed from customer trading losses dating as far back as the late 1990s, and a person familiar with the matter says one of those customers was Ross Capital, Mr. Flottl’s Bermuda-based investment fund.

Mr. Flottl confirms conducting trades through Refco, but says all obligations to it were paid in full and on time and that he’s flummoxed over why his name surfaced in connection with Refco’s problems.

...more...

[ret5hd]

44. sounds to me like a boatload of refco's debt...

got unloaded onto the back of the working man...again:

<snip>
...retail banking for blue collar workers, payments for trade unions...
</snip>

[IChing]

48. thanks for filling in more of the pieces of the puzzle n/t

[UpInArms]

60. Court hearing for Refco CEO Bennett postponed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T162753Z_01_N31665529_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-REFCO.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - A court hearing for bankrupt Refco Inc.'s (RFXCQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research) suspended Chief Executive Phillip Bennett was postponed on Monday, according to a spokeswoman for the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York.

No new date was given for the hearing and no further information was immediately available.

Bennett was arrested on Oct. 12 and charged with securities fraud, plunging the major New York-based futures and commodities brokerage into a downward spiral that led to its filing for bankruptcy protection just five days later.

Bennett is accused of covering up $430 in bad debts from Refco shareholders through a series of transactions before the company went public in August.

Federal prosecutors had faced an Oct. 31 deadline for obtaining a grand jury indictment against Bennett but lawyers close to the case had said such deadlines are often postponed to give prosecutors and other government authorities more time to investigate.

...more...

[Mojorabbit]

11. China Trade Fair Reports Garment Deals Dip

http://www.forbes.com/technology/feeds/ap/2005/10/31/ap2307867.html
Garment deals at China's biggest trade fair dropped by about 10 percent from the previous fair, with sales to the United States falling by 44 percent given uncertainties over export quotas, the government reported Monday.

The China Export Commodities Fair, held twice a year in the southern city of Guangzhou, ended Sunday with US$2.46 billion (euro2.03 billion) in garment deals, down 10.1 percent from the spring session held in April, and down nearly 14 percent from last year's autumn fair, according to a report on the Ministry of Commerce Web site.

Contracts for clothing exports to the U.S. totaled US$310 million (euro255.4 million), down 44 percent from the spring fair. Export deals to European countries fell 6.9 percent from the spring fair, to US$1 billion (euro820 million), the report said.

Trade disputes over the volume of Chinese exports to the U.S. and European markets left participants cautious, it said.

snip
Both the United States and Europe have accused China of flooding their markets with low-cost textiles after worldwide import quotas for textile products ended on Jan. 1.

In September, the EU renegotiated import limits with China, and Beijing committed to block further exports of sweaters, trousers or bras this year. But a fourth round of U.S.-Chinese talks on the textile dispute ended without agreement in mid-October.

According to a report issued last week by the International Labor Organization, China's total textile and clothing exports rose in value by 18 percent year-on-year in the first four months of this year, to US$31.2 billion. It said China's textile and exports in 2004 totaled US$61.6 billion.

Industry analysts expect China's textile exports to be about US$2.5 billion (euro2 billion) lower this year than they would have been if not hit with new quotas and a 2.1 percent revaluation of the Chinese currency, state media reported Monday

[UpInArms]

12. IMF warns about potential U.S. consumption slowdown

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-28T182928Z_01_N28283931_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-IMF-RISKS-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Massive U.S. deficits, red-hot housing prices, and volatile energy markets could soon dampen American consumption and darken world growth forecasts, the International Monetary Fund's chief economist said in remarks released on Friday.

<snip>

"The central concern has to be about consumption growth in the United States, which has been holding up the world economy," Rajan said in a speech dated Oct. 25 but distributed by the IMF on Friday.

He warned high energy prices, if they feed inflation and inflationary expectations, could cause the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise rates faster and further than now expected and lead to an abrupt fall in consumer spending.

"This would have several negative effects," he said Higher interest rates could stunt house price growth and hinder investment at a time when more investment is desperately needed in low-income countries and emerging markets, he said.

"My greatest worry is not that U.S consumption will slow -- it has to, because it is being fueled by unsustainable forces," Rajan said. "My worry is that it will slow abruptly, taking away a major support from world growth before other supports are in place."

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Today's Reports:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Oct 31	8:30 AM	Personal Income		Sep	-	0.3%	0.4%	-0.1%	-	
Oct 31	8:30 AM	Personal Spending	Sep	-	0.4%	0.5%	-0.5%	-	
Oct 31	10:00 AM	Chicago PMI	Oct	-	58.0	57.2	60.5	-

[UpInArms]

34. 8:30 Reports (OUCH! Savings Rate falls AGAIN! - Incomes DOWN!)

8:31am 10/31/05 U.S. AUG. PERSONAL INCOMES REVISED TO -0.9% VS. -0.1%

8:31am 10/31/05 U.S. SEPT. PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE FALLS 0.4%

8:30am 10/31/05 U.S. SEPT. CONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.5% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 10/31/05 U.S. SEPT. PERSONAL INCOMES UP 1.7% VS. 0.3% EXPECTED

8:30am 10/31/05 U.S. SEPT. CORE PCE PRICE INDEX UP 0.2%

[KayLaw]

36. Congratulations!

Glad so many of you got raises last month. How did you do it? Take it you're not auto workers.

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

38. more info: (income was increase in rents - proprietor income increased not

wages)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B63276A77%2DA1A6%2D4B3B%2DBC79%2DD0C6FA9B738E%7D&siteid=mktw

excerpt:
Meanwhile, prices soared on higher energy prices. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.9% in September, the biggest increase since February 1981.

<snip>

(here's the "income" gain)

Income from wages increased 0.3% in September. Proprietors' income rose 4.9%. Rental incomes were not computed monthly, but for the third quarter, rental incomes with capital consumption adjustment fell 99.5%.

(and here's where the "consumer" is spending(?))

Real spending on durable goods fell 2.4% in September, while spending on nondurables fell 1%. Spending on services increased 0.3%.

...more...

[UpInArms]

35. By stripping Food and Energy - there's no inflation!

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38656.3544113773-848228258&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. incomes and inflation bounced higher in September on the impact of destructive hurricanes, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Incomes rose 1.7% in September after plunging a revised 0.9% in August. Excluding the impact of uninsured losses on property owners, however, incomes rose 0.5% in September after rising 0.3% in August. Meanwhile, prices soared on higher energy prices. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.9% in September, the biggest increase since February 1981. Excluding food and energy prices, however, the core PCE price index rose a more moderate 0.2%. Adjusted for inflation, real spending fell 0.4% in September after dropping 1% in August.

[progressive_realist]

65. These are puzzling numbers.

Incomes rose 1.7% in September after plunging a revised 0.9% in August.

So the net increase is roughly 0.8% for the two months, right?

Excluding the impact of uninsured losses on property owners, however, incomes rose 0.5% in September after rising 0.3% in August.

Unless I suddenly forgot how to do math, the net increase for the two months is still 0.8%.

Does that mean that property owners recovered the entirety of their uninsured losses from August by increasing income in September? By raising rents on undamaged properties, perhaps? Or did they get government handouts?

[UpInArms]

68. I could easily be wrong about this, but

was not just about every vacant apartment, hotel, box used to house Katrina and Rita evacuees?

Didn't the Red Cross pick up a lot of those costs?

Wasn't FEMA pressed into paying some of that also?

hmmmm...

[UpInArms]

40. New York City economic growth slows in Oct--NY-NAPM

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T140014Z_01_NAT001867_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-NEWYORK-NAPM.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Business growth in New York
City fell in October for the first time in four months as
stubbornly high energy costs may have taken a toll on some
companies, a report said on Friday.

The National Association of Purchasing Management-New York
said its business conditions index slipped to 351.6 from
September's upwardly revised 353.2. The September figure was
originally reported at to 349.7.

September's business conditions reading was its highest
ever level in September, according to NAPM records reaching as
far back as January, 1997.

The survey's current conditions component measure fell to
46.9 in October, its lowest level since June, from September's
65.5. The current conditions index is made up almost entirely
by the city's services sector.

...more...

[UpInArms]

51. Oct Chicago PMI @ 62.9%

10:03am 10/31/05 CHICAGO PMI BEATS FORECASTS FOR 57.9%; WAS 60.5% IN SEPT.

10:01am 10/31/05 CHICAGO PMI INDEX RISES TO 62.9 IN OCTOBER

[UpInArms]

53. US Oct. Midwest business activity expands strongly

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T152003Z_01_N30612937_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MIDWEST-UPDATE-1.XML

CHICAGO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Business activity in the U.S. Midwest expanded faster than expected in October, with new orders surging and hiring picking up as well, a report showed on Monday.

The National Association of Purchasing Management-Chicago business barometer rose to 62.9, its highest since July, from 60.5 in September. Economists had forecast the index to slip to 58.0. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

The employment component of the index rose to 51.3 from 48.4 in September. Prices paid rose to 79.6 from 76.3, feeling the heat from high energy prices. New orders surged to 72.6 from 63.4 and were the highest since March.

"Between the move in the employment index and continued strength in new orders it suggests that the economy should continue to expand in the near term," said Drew Matus, senior financial markets economist at Lehman Brothers.

Many view the NAPM-Chicago as an industrial indicator, even though service sector companies are also polled, because the Chicago region is relatively industrialized.

...more...

[UpInArms]

70. ALERT: Report - Real spending falls 2 months in a row

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B63276A77%2DA1A6%2D4B3B%2DBC79%2DD0C6FA9B738E%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Real U.S. consumer spending declined for the second straight month in September, giving the U.S. economy considerable headwind as the fourth quarter began.

Adjusted for inflation, real spending fell 0.4% in September after dropping 1% in August, the Commerce Department reported Monday. It's the first back-to-back decline in spending in 15 years.

<snip>

The September income and spending data show that the strong consumer spending, which boosted third-quarter gross domestic product, was concentrated in the month of July, when the automakers put on a big sale.

Since then, real consumer spending - that is, adjusted for inflation -- has been weakening, even though the personal savings rate has been negative for four months in a row. Consumers are spending more than they earn, but they still can't keep up the pace they set earlier in the year.

...more...

Darn those non-spending people! Why aren't they HAPPY to spend more than they earn?!? Why do they hate 'Murka?

[Mojorabbit]

14. Canada to hold firm in US softwood imports dispute - PM Martin

OTTAWA (AFX) - Canada will not buckle to the US in a knotty trade dispute over construction lumber, Prime Minister Paul Martin said Sunday.

'We're going to continue to press our case with the US,' Martin said.

'We'll do so respectfully but we're not going to let up.'

The United States accuses Canada of subsidizing exported construction timber and charges countervailing duties on imports.

On Friday, the US said it would seek a delay in the implementation of a NAFTA ruling to Canada's favour.

The US Commerce Department said would file motions 'requesting clarification' of the Oct 5 decision by the panel of the North American Free Trade Agreement, which joins Canada, Mexico and the United States into one free-trade zone.

The US agency said it was also requesting an extension of time to file a response until it gets a clarification.

Martin promised to take the long-standing dispute to court.

'If we have to go to court to get what's rightfully ours, we will. If we have to keep pressuring the Americans, we will. It's just too important to do otherwise,' he said.
http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2005/10/31/afx2307537.html

[UpInArms]

15. Investors cut stocks for cash, some flee euro zone

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T120025Z_01_L31642480_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FUNDS-WRAPUP-1.XML

LONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Investors trimmed stocks in October and generally tucked into safer cash as concerns over slowing economic growth and rising interest rates undermined risk appetite, Reuters polls showed on Monday.

U.S. and continental investors also sharply cut their exposure to euro zone bonds and stocks, both of which have been popular allocations so far this year.

Surveys of 43 leading investment firms in the United States, Japan, continental Europe and Britain showed an average holding of 60.7 percent of assets in equities, down from 61.2 percent a month earlier.

Cash holdings climbed to 4.7 percent from 4.1 percent, a typical move when investors are uncertain about the future.

<snip>

October was dominated for investors by concerns that central banks would react to signs of inflation by raising interest rates either earlier or higher than expected.

...more...

[54anickel]

58. Markets on Edge Awaiting Fed Announcement

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/business/1351

Two events this week could determine whether the markets rally in November after an October slump. A jobs report on Friday will help measure the health of the economy. But first, the Federal Reserve on Tuesday is expected to bump up interest rates another quarter point to 4 percent, the 12th hike since June 2004. The Fed might hint that its campaign to curb inflation by raising rates is nearing an end. The news would soothe investors. (CNNMoney)

Ready for reform

The federal government is ready to act quickly on proposals that President Bush’s tax-reform panel will finish writing today, said Treasury Secretary John Snow. The advisers are focusing on two options -- streamlining the income tax or replacing it with a progressive tax on consumption. But rallying support for reform won’t be easy, said tax economist Joel Slemrod. Any change will force some to pay more while others pay less. “The winners sing,” he said, “but the losers cry louder.” (The Wall Street Journal, paid registration required)

Gas choking consumers

Economists expect the government to report today that consumer spending rose about 0.5 percent in September, largely thanks to higher fuel prices after hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Higher energy costs left Americans facing “tough choices” on how to spend the rest of their money. Most cut their budgets for restaurants, clothing, and entertainment, or put off buying cars and other big-ticket items. And the crunch will only worsen once high winter heating bills hit. (Bloomberg)

snip>

Let’s hope Ben Bernanke is a fast learner, says Jeffrey Garten in Financial Times. President Bush’s nominee to replace Alan Greenspan as Federal Reserve chairman is “an exceptional economist,” but he has little “real-world experience.” Yet Bernanke is taking over just as America’s intricate relationships with booming markets in China, India, Brazil, and South Korea are fundamentally changing the way our economy works. There’s no reason to think Bernanke isn’t up to the challenge. “But he is sure to be severely tested.”

It is time to strike a deal on Social Security reform, say the editors of The Washington Post. President Bush failed to sell personal accounts as a key to saving the system. Yet Democrats won’t acknowledge that Social Security will go broke without painful changes. Both sides can win by swallowing their pride and making the system solvent. Democrats will gain much-needed “credibility,” and Bush will avoid “going down as the worst budget steward in memory.”

more...

[UpInArms]

17. As (housing) market cools, lenders prepare to slim down

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/3424710

ORLANDO, FLA. - The last four years will likely be remembered as a gilded age for anyone in real estate, especially mortgage bankers. But with interest rates rising, the industry is preparing for a slowdown that may prompt some lenders to merge with their competitors.

Consumers may be winners from the mortgage banking industry's scramble for customers in the months ahead of this anticipated consolidation.

Home buyers are already seeing lenders cutting loan fees, and some lenders are willing to offer lower mortgage rates even if it takes away from their profits.

"Companies are losing money to keep market share," said Douglas Duncan, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association. "The consumer is being subsidized because the competition is so fierce. For the short run, the consumer is getting a better deal."

<snip>

At a mortgage banking industry convention in Orlando this month, many executives were clearly worried, with rising interest rates eating away at demand from consumers looking to buy homes or refinance existing mortgages.

...more...

[IChing]

19. Steady, Large Increases in Govt. Spending's Part of "Economic Growth"

swag (1000+ posts)
Conservatives allegedly hate big government, but under conservatives government is only getting bigger and bigger, and contributing an increasingly large amount of borrowed money to US "economic growth" as measured by GDP:


Commentary excerpt from The Prudent Investor:

http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2005/10/us-gdp-grow...

While most market participants and bloggers - summed up at macroblog - cheered the surprisingly strong preliminary growth figure of 3.8% (Q2: 3.3%) a look at Econbrowser's chart (and the BEA press release) shows that government spending has become a major factor in the strenghtening process.

I do not consider this great news. While this can be partly explained by hurricane-induced clean-up spending it also means that the US government has been piling on more debt again and this trend shows no slowdown. Quite the opposite. Public debt rose another $26 billion in the last 5 working days alone.

It also contradicts the administration's philosophical line of "starving the (government) beast to death," which conservatives like to cite so often.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x2199108

[UpInArms]

20. the "starving the (government) beast to death"

theory will also work if they bankrupt the country.

Dead is dead - it's the end that they seek - the way doesn't matter.

[IChing]

23. Dead is dead

The U.S. Government has recently announced ...

The worst consumer-
price jump in 25 years!

Plus
The worst producer-
price jump in 31 years!

finance growth by government spending to the economic military industrial complex.

[IChing]

25. you can also smell the bear in the charts

If you know where to sniff, you can also smell the bear in the charts.

Just three weeks ago, the S&P 500 Index suffered a critical breakdown, falling below an upward trend which had endured for over two and a half years.

And I’m not just talking about a line on a chart.

This trend also represents the rally in the stock market and the recovery in the economy which began in the spring of 2003.

But now this trend seems to be breaking down, ushering in a new phase in our current history.

Indeed, if the S&P falls to its next support level, it could reach the 950 - 1000 area. This may take some time. And there are bound to be exceptional situations that hold up relatively well. But unprepared investors that take no action today are bound to regret it.



http://www.moneyandmarkets.com

[modrepub]

21. Refinery Contribution

I heard part of the GDP increase was due to massive increases in gasoline prices. Same amount of refined product (in the US) x massive price increases = higher value (GDP). Any thoughts?

[UpInArms]

24. A Yellow Light for Investors

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2005/nf20051031_1784_db006.htm

"A recession could be in the cards," with the chances between 30% and 50%. That's one of the possibilities emerging from the charts studied by Mark Arbeter, chief technical analyst for Standard & Poor's. Like a number of fundamental analysts, he urges caution and a defensive stance on the part of investors.

That would mean, in Arbeter's view, staying "with utility stocks, some areas of health care, energy stocks, and then within health care, biotech stocks right now." He points out that another four-year-cycle low is due late in 2006, and going back to 1970 those cycles have tended to coincide with lows in both the economy and the market.

Arbeter adds that a number of intermediate- and long-term technical indicators of market action are either already bearish or close to turning bearish. And he thinks the market has to go lower before it can rise again.

These were among the comments Arbeter made in an investing chat presented on Oct. 25 by BusinessWeek Online and Standard & Poor's, in response to questions from the audience and from BW Online's Jack Dierdorff and Karyn McCormack. Edited excerpts follow:

...more...

[loudsue]

32. Good Morning, Marketeers! I wonder how the Market will like our latest

Supreme Court nominee?? That seems to be the "big news" of the day, for the masses, as well as for the laws that may well affect the markets.

:donut: Coffee's on me!!

:kick::kick::kick:

[AnneD]

54. Aren't we living large loudsue,

Don't mind if I do. It is so much more fun to watch now that I don't have money going in my 403B now. My debts keep going lower my bank account and savings grows. I plan to take advantage of the housing and real estate bust.

[54anickel]

33. Barrick Is After Placer Dome

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/stocks/manufacturing/10250311.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Placer Dome (PDG:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) surged 17% early Monday after rival Barrick Gold (ABX:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) unveiled a $9.2 billion unsolicited bid for its Canadian mining rival.

Toronto-based Barrick said it would pay $20.50 a share, 87% in stock and the rest in cash. It also set up a side deal with Goldcorp (GG:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) in which Goldcorp will buy some Placer Dome subsidiaries and an interest in a development project for $1.35 billion in cash. Goldcorp said the deal would increase Goldcorp's annual gold production by approximately 50% to more than 2 million ounces at a total cash cost of less than US$150/oz. Proven and probable gold reserves would increase by 83%.

In the offer, Placer Dome's common shareholders will have the right to elect to receive $20.50 in cash or 0.7518 of a Barrick common share plus $0.05 in cash for each Placer Dome common share, subject to pro ration based upon the maximum amount of cash and Barrick common shares offered. The maximum amount of cash to be paid by Barrick will be approximately $1.224 billion, and the maximum number of Barrick common shares to be issued will be approximately 303 million, taking into account the conversion of Placer Dome's outstanding convertible debt securities and outstanding share options. Assuming full pro ration of these maximum amounts, this would result in $2.65 in cash and 0.6562 of a Barrick common share for each Placer Dome common share subject to the offer.

more...

[54anickel]

42. Gold May Rise as Demand Outpaces Mining Output, Survey Shows

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000082&sid=a31NFLm7c7_k&refer=canada

Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Gold prices may rise for a second week on speculation demand from jewelry makers in China and the Middle East exceeds production by mining companies, a Bloomberg survey shows.

Twenty-two of 43 traders, analysts and investors surveyed Oct. 27 and Oct. 28 from Melbourne to New York said prices will rise. Thirteen recommended selling and eight were neutral. Gold gained 1.2 percent last week to $474.80 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal, up 11 percent in the past year, reached a 17-year high of $483.10 on Oct. 12.

``In China, there is real physical demand for gold, and the same goes for the Middle East,'' Pierre Lassonde, president of Denver-based Newmont Mining Corp., said in a telephone interview on Oct. 26. There is ``good demand in an environment where mine supply is falling,'' he said. ``That's what's putting prices where they are today.''

Newmont, the world's biggest gold producer, and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., the second-largest, last week reported declines in third-quarter output. Newmont's gold refinery in Chiasso, Switzerland, will be running at full capacity for at least four months, and the plant is expanding to process even more gold bars into pieces used by jewelers.

snip to unsourced speculation>

At the same time, ``second and third-tier central banks are quietly moving to increase their holdings of gold as a reserve asset,'' said Dennis Gartman, an economist and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter.

Lassonde, also chairman of the London-based World Gold Council, said his trip to Asia included visits to central banks on behalf of the industry group. He declined to give details on the meetings.

more...

[UpInArms]

66. some background on Barrick

(54anickel, I know you know that I can't resist that :D )

Exporting Corporate Control
A Gold Company with Ties to the Bush Family Tries to Muzzle a Muckraking Journalist

http://www.commondreams.org/views01/0721-08.htm

Globalization's glad prophets tell us that when the golden arches of McDonald's finally encircle the world, liberty will flourish beneath them. But so far, the evidence that open economies promote open societies is hardly conclusive -- and today there is a case pending in the courts of the United Kingdom that suggests a far less happy prospect: that the suppression of free speech and independent journalism suffered in other countries may someday cross international borders as easily as a shipment of frozen hamburger.

The plaintiffs in this case are Barrick Gold Mining, a huge firm based in Canada, and Barrick's chairman, Peter Munk, a Toronto multimillionaire with many powerful friends such as former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney and former U.S. President George Herbert Walker Bush. The defendants are Guardian Newspapers, London publisher of the Guardian (which I have occasionally written for), Britain's premier liberal daily, and the Observer, its Sunday paper.

On Nov. 26, 2000, the Observer published "The Best Democracy Money Can Buy," a column by investigative reporter Gregory Palast (who has written for Salon) that outlined the cozy relationship enjoyed by the Bush family and the Barrick interests. Palast, who happens to be an American citizen, pointed out that Barrick's U.S. subsidiary, Barrick Goldstrike, had donated over $100,000 to Republican committees in recent years; that Goldstrike had previously obtained a very sweet deal to mine gold on public lands in Nevada, pushed through during the final days of George H.W. Bush's presidency; and that the former president had landed on Barrick's payroll after leaving office, to peddle his influence with foreign leaders in exchange for a salary and stock options.

Palast's column went on to discuss other Barrick ventures in Indonesia, Zaire and, most controversially, Tanzania, where he mentioned a report by Amnesty International alleging that in 1996, a company later bought by Barrick had participated in the "extrajudicial killing" of dozens of small-scale artisanal miners, in order to clear the Bulyanhulu gold pits, a rich site to which the company claimed title. The story behind that alleged incident is long and somewhat murky, but this much is clear: Several independent newspapers in Tanzania reported in August 1996 that as many as 52 miners were buried alive when bulldozers operated by Kahama Mining Co. Ltd., a firm later acquired by Barrick, filled in the pits, assisted by armed troops. The miners had until then successfully resisted KMCL's attempt to evict them from the land, a tract some 30 miles south of Lake Victoria.

...more...

[54anickel]

71. Heh-heh, it was a bit of a set-up.

[UpInArms]

39. Treasuries briefly extend losses on core-PCE rise

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T134529Z_01_NYG000081_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-PCE-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices briefly extended losses on Monday on higher-than-expected inflation in September, which suggested the Federal Reserve has grounds to be signaling the need for more interest rate increases.

But the bearish blow of the data to the bond market was softened by a downward revision to August inflation and the fact that the September reading was implicitly included in last Friday's data on third-quarter economic growth.

The core personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose in September by 0.2 percent, above economists' expectations of a 0.1 percent increase. August's core PCE was revised down to plus 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent previously.

...more...

[UpInArms]

47. Printing Press Warm-Up: Fed adds reserves via overnight system RPs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T143354Z_01_N31656960_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Monday said it was adding temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark federal funds rate last traded at 4.063 percent, above the Fed's target of 3.75 percent for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm


The estimated population of the United States is 297,580,543
so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,962.60.

[UpInArms]

61. Printing Press Re-Dux: US Treasury to sell $15 bln 4-week bills Tuesday

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T160208Z_01_WAT004280_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BILLS-ANNOUNCEMENT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Monday said it will sell $15.0 billion of four-week bills on Tuesday, Nov. 1.

The four-week bills will be issued on Nov. 3.

Proceeds from the sale will be used to refund about $8.0 billion of publicly held bills maturing Nov. 3 and to raise new cash of about $7.0 billion.

The four-week bills announced on Tuesday mature Dec. 1. Treasury said the net long position reporting threshold is $5.25 billion.

Noncompetitive bids on the four-week bill offering must be received noon EST (1700 GMT) and competitive bids by 1:00 p.m. EST (1800 GMT).

...more...

[UpInArms]

72. Treasurys gain; yields said to already reflect Fed bets

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA66217AB%2D7807%2D4B14%2D94E7%2DB7E41D850344%7D&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys gained Monday as declines sustained during four out of the last five weeks left yields attractive to some investors.

Benchmark 10-year yields touched 4.6% last week, a six-month high, while short-term yields are at their highest in more than four years.

Yield and price move inversely. Higher yields are demanded to offset risks facing bond investors, including rising inflation.

The bond market held the line on modest price gains to start the week despite what normally would be bond-negative strength in a regional factory gauge and on a mixed report on spending and incomes.

Neither report offered much to change long-held expectations in the bond market for what would be a 12th straight Federal Reserve interest-rate increase when the U.S. central bank meets Tuesday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

75. US Treasuries edge higher, brace for FOMC meeting

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T191210Z_01_N31466130_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

CHICAGO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were narrowly mixed at midday, with dealers mostly brushing off the day's economic reports and looking forward to Tuesday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The Fed's policy-setting body is widely expected to raise short-term U.S. interest rates by a quarter percentage point for a 12th consecutive time, pushing the benchmark federal funds rate to 4.0 percent.

The market is more focused on the central bank's post-meeting message for any hints that its program of measured interest rate increases might be nearing an end, or that inflation worries could keep the string of rate hikes alive.

At this point, short-term rate futures look for rate increases in December and most likely January as well.

The 10-year Treasury note rose 2/32 in price for a yield of 4.55 percent, down from 4.57 percent late Friday.

The benchmark note yield continues to meet resistance to a move through the 4.60 percent to 4.63 percent zone, although another hike to the fed funds rate could raise the threshold at the long end of the yield curve.

...more...

[UpInArms]

77. Treasury to borrow $96 Billion 4th Quarter/$171 Billion 1st Quarter =$267B

Treasury to borrow $96 billion in fourth quarter
U.S. plans to borrow record $171 billion in first quarter

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B78A5EF00%2D1AA1%2D4530%2D8731%2D1FA204A352BA%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. government plans to borrow a net $96 billion in marketable securities in the fourth quarter, the Treasury Department said Monday.

For the first quarter of 2005, the Treasury anticipates borrowing a record $171 billion from the markets.

The government borrowed $52 billion in marketable debt in the just-concluded third quarter.

The government borrowed $216 billion in the markets in fiscal year 2005, down significantly from $380 billion in 2004. The improvement was due to stronger-than-expected receipts and record borrowing of $67 billion from state and local governments.

Three months ago, the Treasury said it would likely have to borrow $97 billion in the fourth quarter. The government entered the fourth quarter with about $6 billion more in cash on hand than it had anticipated, but higher outlays are expected, including spending on hurricane relief and rebuilding.

The Treasury will announce the details of its quarterly refunding auctions on Wednesday. The government will sell 3-, 5- and 10-year notes next week to provide much of the money it needs this quarter.

In comments to the borrowing advisory committee, Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Warshawsky said the Bush administration is "optimistic that future real growth will remain solid with continued gains in payrolls jobs."

...more...

Oh my.


The estimated population of the United States is 297,582,754
so each citizen's share of this debt is $26,963.76.

[UpInArms]

43. Steve Case Resigns from Time Warner Board - Effective Immediately

9:04am 10/31/05 TIME WARNER'S CASE TO FOCUS ON NEW COMPANY REVOLUTION

9:03am 10/31/05 STEVE CASE RESIGNS FROM TIME WARNER BOARD

9:03am 10/31/05 TIME WARNER'S CASE RESIGNATION IS EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY

[UpInArms]

45. pre-opening blather

9:14 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: +2.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.5.

9:00 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Stocks are still headed for a higher start this morning. A 1% pullback in the price of crude helps underpin the bullish bias that has carried forth from Friday's rally. A host of analyst upgrades may further support buying action today; amongst stocks upgraded are WAG, SIRI, QLGC, HSII, WFT, PNC, and SPF.

8:33 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: +1.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Recently crossing the wires was Sept. personal income and spending data. The former rose 1.7% (consensus 0.4%), while the latter's 0.5% increase matched expectations. The stock market's initial reaction is a muted one, and futures trade continues to suggest a higher start for the cash market. One additional economic item is slated for today; at 10:00 ET, the Oct. Chicago PMI report is due out. Separately, further M&A activity may be adding to early trading's optimistic tone. After Barrick Gold (ABX) announced its $9.2 bln bid for Placer Dome (PDG), PDG shares have surged over 20%. Also, Saks (SKS) is expected to announce a $1.1 bln sale of its Northern department stores..

8:02 ET Market is Closed
S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. The cash market is poised for a higher open today, amid another round of third quarter earnings reports and merger activity. With respect to the early eanings calendar, Occidental Petroloem (OXY), Humana (HUM), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), and Valero Energy (VLO) are amongst the upside reporters. News that Novartis (NVS) has agreed to purchase the balance of Chiron shares that it does not already own, for $5.1 bln, may be contributing to the early sentiment.

[UpInArms]

46. 9:39 EST market's open for the deaf, dumb and blind

Dow 10,440.85 +38.08 (+0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,101.66 +11.78 (+0.56%)
S&P 500 1,203.85 +5.44 (+0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.565 -0.02 (-0.04%)

NYSE Volume 110,489,000
Nasdaq Volume 95,348,000

[UpInArms]

49. 9:53 EST update with blather

Dow 10,466.56 +63.79 (+0.61%)
Nasdaq 2,107.84 +17.96 (+0.86%)
S&P 500 1,207.22 +8.81 (+0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.563 -0.04 (-0.09%)

NYSE Volume 229,526,000
Nasdaq Volume 186,222,000

9:40AM: As futures trade had suggested, the equity market opened on positive turf today. While earnings season is winding down, several upside third quarter reports have helped extend the bullish bias that sent the indices near their best gains of the quarter on Friday. Amongst the companies exceeding estimates this morning are Humana (HUM), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Valero Energy (VLO), which help evidence that Q3 profit growth remains on target for 15%. Along with an early pullback in the price of crude ($60.61/bbl), merger Monday news has perhaps contributed to the upbeat tone and includes Novartis' (NVRS) purchase the portion of Chiron that it does not already own, Barrick Gold's (ABX) bid for Placer Dome (PDG), and Saks' (SKS) sale of its Northern department stores.

[UpInArms]

52. NASD sets $7.9 mln junk bond penalties,expels firm

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T151550Z_01_WEN2920_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-NASD-JUNKBONDS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The NASD on Monday said it ordered four firms to pay $7.9 million for charging excessive prices on junk bond trades and expelled one of the firms from the securities industry.

SG Americas Securities LLC will pay a $3.75 million fine and more than $728,000 in restitution. Royal Bank of Canada's (RY.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) RBC Capital Markets will pay a $2 million fine and more than $108,000 in restitution, while its affiliate RBC Dain Rauscher Inc. will pay a $1 million fine and more than $150,000 in restitution.

DebtTraders Inc., a New York firm, will pay $120,000 in restitution, and was expelled from the industry. The firm stopped doing business on July 31, the NASD said.

The NASD was formerly known as the National Association of Securities Dealers.

10:18am 10/31/05 NASD FINES THREE FIRMS $6.75 MLN OVER BOND TRADE VIOLATIONS

10:18am 10/31/05 NASD EXPELS FOURTH FIRM; FIRMS ALSO MUST PAY RESTITUTION

10:06am 10/31/05 NASD: 4 FIRMS TO PAY TOTAL $1.1M RESTITUTION TO CUSTOMERS

10:05am 10/31/05 NASD FINES 3 FIRMS, EXPELS FOURTH FOR BOND-TRADE VIOLATIONS

[JNelson6563]

55. Thank Bob we'll all be rich by day's end!

With the M&A's going on and a right wing SCOTUS nominee the wealthy are feeling oh-so-confident today! I hope all are well positioned to make a few pennies.

I myself am not at all deterred by the drop in gold. :toast:

Julie

[ret5hd]

56. looks like a buying opportunity (gold that is)...

i'm looking for 458 or so.

[AnneD]

59. Say....

on Sat. night, I saw an infomercial about buying US minted gold coins. So what does it say about the market when it starts showing up on late night TV. Their ploy was limited number, uncertainty etc. I mean you could just smell the fear. They had the fake phone bank ringing off the hook in the background. And the gold was so shiny:crazy:

So how to you square the history of gold etc to hold value or gain vs inflation or other investments. Just curious.

[UpInArms]

73. Dec Gold closes @ $466.90 oz

1:54pm 10/31/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES AT ONE-WEEK LOW, DOWN $7.90 AT $466.90/OZ

1:54pm 10/31/05 DEC GOLD CLOSES DOWN $5.40, OR 1.1%, FOR THE MONTH

1:54pm 10/31/05 DEC SILVER ENDS AT OVER ONE-WEEK LOW, DOWN 24C AT $7.58/OZ

[UpInArms]

63. 12:10 EST still doing the happy dance

Dow 10,462.40 +59.63 (+0.57%)
Nasdaq 2,115.98 +26.10 (+1.25%)
S&P 500 1,206.73 +8.32 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 4.547 -0.20 (-0.44%)

NYSE Volume 1,117,653,000
Nasdaq Volume 819,354,000

(updating blather on edit)

12:05 The bullish bias that Friday's GDP data incited has carried into today's session, and has been underpinned by more upside Q3 earnings reports, M&A activity, and a 2.2% drop in the price of crude. Opening higher, the indices remain near session highs as they head into the lunch hour, supported by gains levied by each of the ten economic sectors. A pair of earnings-stimulated gains drove the Energy sector to the early leadership position, but crude's action has tempered their effects and has sent the sector towards the flat line. Specifically, Valero Energy (VLO 105.11 +5.61) has surged 5.6% after delivering EPS $0.40 ahead of analysts' estimates, while Occidental Petroleum's (OXY 78.51 +1.61) upside report has sent its shares 2.1% higher. Moving into the session's front-running slot, Consumer Discretionary (+1.7%) has nearly matched Friday's gain. While buying is broad, department stores stand as a notable area of strength - enjoying the residual effect of Saks' (SKS 18.25 +1.59) plan to sell its Northern department stores and subsequent 10% surge. Further to oil's decline, today's report from the AAA showed significant declines in gas prices nationwide and has bolstered discretionary issues. Wal-Mart's (WMT 46.97 +1.47) raised guidance for October same store sales has boosted retailers and supported the Consumer Staples sector (+0.4%), while continued strength in brokers takes Financials 0.5% higher. Healthcare, up 0.4%, has enjoyed some added attention today on account of two particular news items: Humana (HUM 44.17 +0.25) surpassed analysts' Q3 earnings estimates prior to the bell, and Novartis (NVS 53.74 +0.34) announced that it will pay about $5.1 bln to acquire the 58% stake of Chiron (CHIR 44.82 +0.22) that it does not already own. As a result, HMOs and biotechs have performed well today. iPod order data released by Apple (AAPL 57.06 +2.59) has sent its shares soaring, and significant spikes in Cisco (CSCO 17.49 +0.35) and Yahoo (YHOO 36.80 +1.22) pull the Tech sector to a 1.2% gain while contributing to the Nasdaq's outperformance. Due to a 3% drop in Newmont Mining (NEM 43.01 -1.12), Materials (+0.2%) has stood as the morning's laggard. Further to the session's M&A activity, NEM competitor Barrick Gold (ABX 25.22 -1.98) bid $9.2 bln for Placer Dome (PDG 19.68 +3.17) and indicated its intent to sell assets to Goldcorp (GG 19.80 +0.42) as part of the takeover plan. Separately, the session's economic calendar offered some reassuring - albeit largely overlooked - personal spending and income data. Investors are looking ahead towards tomorrow's economic docket, though, and anticipating the FOMC's twelfth consecutive 25 basis point hike in the fed funds rate. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 2347/763. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 2031/862.

11:30AM: Little has changed for stocks, but crude's 2.6% decline - to $59.60/bbl - has adjusted sector standings. Energy has fallen from a gain in excess of 2.0% to the unchanged mark, while retailers surge. Further contributing to retail issues' attraction today is a report from the AAA: Gas prices nationwide have fallen just below $2.50 a gallon, down from $2.89/gal last month and from a high of $3.06/gal on Labor Day. Separately, the bond market fares somewhat better today, despite the expectation for the Fed's twelfth consecutive 25 basis point rate hike, to 4.00%, tomorrow. The benchmark 10-year note is currently up six ticks and offering 4.54%.NYSE Adv/Dec 2342/725, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2058/789

11:00AM: The indices edge off of recently hit highs, but remain solid. Paring some of its early gain alongside crude's extended pullback, the Energy sector (+0.6%) has relinquished the driver's seat to the Consumer Discretionary sector (+1.5%) that, conversly, benefits from oil's action today. Matching Energy's gain is the Healthcare sector. Biotechs have surfaced as a particular pocket of relative strength, and continued momentum in HMOs further supports the sector. Behind the respective rises are Chiron (CHIR 44.26 +0.86), which has jumped 2.0% after announcing that Novartis (NVS 53.51 +0.11) will acquire the 58% stake of CHIR that it doesn't already own, and Humana (HUM 45.02 +1.10), which lends a 2.5% gain after reporting better than expected Q3 earnings. NYSE Adv/Dec 2368/598, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2080/674

[ozymandius]

64. coming up for air during lunch

12:33
Dow 10,445.20 +42.43 (+0.41%)
Nasdaq 2,111.44 +21.56 (+1.03%)
S&P 500 1,204.66 +6.25 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond 45.59 -0.08 (-0.18%)
NYSE Volume 1,207,878,000
Nasdaq Volume 884,302,000

[UpInArms]

67. UAL 3rd-qtr loss widens on restructuring costs

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T174039Z_01_N31662175_RTRIDST_0_AIRLINES-UAL-EARNS-UPDATE-2.XML

CHICAGO, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Bankrupt UAL Corp. (UALAQ.OB: Quote, Profile, Research), parent of United Airlines, on Monday reported a wider third-quarter net loss, hurt by reorganization expenses, but analysts said the No. 2 U.S. airline would be in a solid position when it emerges from bankruptcy.

Its net loss increased to $1.77 billion, or $15.26 per share, from $274 million, or $2.38 per share, a year earlier. The loss included $1.7 billion in non-cash charges related to its reorganization.

Operating revenue rose to $4.66 billion from $4.31 billion, and operating earnings amounted to $165 million versus a loss of $80 million.

...more...

Did they manage to shove off their pension obligations?

[UpInArms]

69. Business will support Alito

http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/31/news/economy/alito_nomination/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Political observers are bracing for a firestorm with President Bush's most recent nomination to the Supreme Court, but business groups are likely to back the candidate hailed for his staunchly conservative record.

<snip>

Unlike Roberts and Miers, who have established reputations as corporate-friendly, Alito is known more for his social rulings than his business record. Still, observers said its unlikely that business groups will view his nomination as anything other than positive.

<snip>

And Greg Valliere, chief strategist for Stanford Washington Research Group, added that it's unlikely that Alito would have been nominated if his judicial philosophy wasn't geared towards business interests.

In fact, the White House was reported to have consulted business groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers, headed by former Michigan governor and Bush friend John Engler, over potential nominations in order to garner support for what many see as an uphill battle to seat a conservative judge to replace moderate O'Connor.

And Alito -- who has been compared to Justice Antonin Scalia and dubbed "Scalito" in honor of those similarities -- has already proven that he falls on the conservative side.

...more...

:puke:

[ozymandius]

74. 2:19 numbers and blather

Dow 10,449.35 +46.58 (+0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,116.65 +26.77 (+1.28%)
S&P 500 1,206.70 +8.29 (+0.69%)
10-Yr Bond 45.61 -0.06 (-0.13%)
NYSE Volume 1,632,537,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,217,325,000

1:30PM: Running in place, the market lacks a fresh catalyst to stir further buying interest or to provoke selling. The Dow manages to hold its ground on account of gains extended by 21 of its 30 components. Leading the advancers is Wal-Mart (WMT 47.13 +1.63), continuing to benefit from its upped same store sales guidance; Caterpillar (CAT 52.43 +1.46) and Walt-Disney (DIS 24.33 +0.51) follow close behind and also offer weighty rises. On the flip side, Boeing (BA 65.00 -0.64) leads the decliners and levies the only loss in excess of 1.0%.NYSE Adv/Dec 2358/843, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2094/876

[UpInArms]

76. 3:37 EST smokin' some good stuff today!

Dow 10,481.80 +79.03 (+0.76%)
Nasdaq 2,125.37 +35.49 (+1.70%)
S&P 500 1,211.06 +12.65 (+1.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.559 -0.08 (-0.18%)

NYSE Volume 2,118,215,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,587,651,000

3:00PM: Market retains its bullish bias, underpinned by broad-based participation in today's move. The advance, which is being led by retail and technology issues, follows in the wake of strong gains posted by foreign markets that exceeded 1.5% in a number of cases (CAC 40 +2.54%; DAX index +2.14%; FTSE 100 +1.99%; and Nikkei +1.95%). From a market cap standpoint, the small-cap and mid-cap issues are setting the pace for the broader market... Nasdaq 100 +1.4, Russell 2000 +1.8, S&P Midcap 400 +1.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 2389/860, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2098/932

2:30PM: Turning back north, the market gets a slight boost from crude's further decline. Futures contracts are currently off 3.2%, to $59.30/bbl. With that effect added to Wal-Mart's (WMT 47.15 +1.65) upped guidance, retailers continue to surge and outperform today. Of the S&P's retail index, within which 32 issues are included, only one trends lower; CVS (CVS 24.28 -0.84) has fallen 3.3% after JP Morgan downgraded shares to Neutral from Overweight. CVS's effect, however, is far overshadowed by gains of at least 2.0% in 65% of retailers today. Continuing to benefit from Saks' (SKS 17.97 +1.31) announced plan to sell its Northern department stores, the Consumer Discretionary sector's department store subgroup remains at the top of the market with a 3.6% gain. NYSE Adv/Dec 2363/866, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2086/934

[54anickel]

81. Must be lookin' for that traditional November rally, hey? I'm thinkin'

they may be disappointed this year, but then again as rigged as the markets seem to be these days anything is possible.

[UpInArms]

83. looks like the buyers bolted out the door early

here are the preliminary closing numbers:

Dow 10,439.75 +36.98 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,120.30 +30.42 (+1.46%)
S&P 500 1,206.91 +8.50 (+0.71%)
10-Yr Bond 4.559 -0.08 (-0.18%)

NYSE Volume 2,448,627,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,860,319,000

gotta run - someone else will have to post the real closing and blather

:hi:

[UpInArms]

78. Bush administration optimistic about economy

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38656.6319996065-848244191&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Bush administration remains optimistic about the U.S. economy, the Treasury's top economist said Monday. Addressing the Bond Market Association's borrowing advisory committee, Assistant Treasury Secretary Mark Warshawsky said the administration agrees with private forecasters who see growth above 3% this quarter and about 3.5% in the first half of 2006. "We're optimistic that future real growth will remain solid with continued gains in payrolls jobs," he said, according to his prepared text.

There has been no real growth in jobs since this whacknut has ascended to his throne and destroyed the fiscal sanity (among other things) of this country.

We are now going to borrow a record freaking $267 BILLION in the 4th and 1st quarters and these freaks of nature are "optimistic" about the economy??????

:banghead:

[AnneD]

80. I am so conflicted.....

I don't know wheither to bang my head, throw up, laugh hysterically, or cry a river. Their reasoning flies in the face of logic. They are so insulated from the average American it is surreal. If there is a God dispensing karma, this house of cards will collapse soon so no DEM president will have to bear this burden. I hate to wish for it but anything to restore some fiscal sanity to Washington.

[UpInArms]

79. US' Snow sees major tax simplication proposal

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T193006Z_01_WBT004169_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW-REFORMS-URGENT.XML

DETROIT, Oct 31 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Monday he expected a White House tax panel to recommend major simplification of the tax code and lower tax rates, reforms he said could boost U.S. savings rates and boost the economy.

Speaking to businessmen at the Detroit Economic Club, Snow said the recommendations, to be unveiled on Tuesday, would cut many preferences and deductions and change corporate expensing rules.

Snow said he expected the recommendations to meet with some political resistance, adding: "The ultimate test of tax reform is whether you get it done."

Snow also said open trade was critical to U.S. economic prospects and urged Europe to stretch further in current World Trade Organization Talks on agriculture.

...more SnowJob blowhard crap...

[UpInArms]

82. new "tax reform" to be unveiled tomorrow

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-31T205949Z_01_N31684969_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-SNOW.XML

excerpt:

Speaking to the Detroit Economic Club, Snow said the proposals, to be unveiled on Tuesday, would cut tax preferences and deductions and change corporate expensing rules.

While he said the recommendations would likely meet with political resistance, he added: "The ultimate test of tax reform is whether you get it done."

President George W. Bush appointed the panel in January and it will deliver its report to Snow. The panel has agreed to back lower tax rates for all taxpayers, coupled with the elimination of the deduction for state and local tax payments, and tighter deduction limits for mortgage interest and employee-sponsored health care costs.

Snow, in an interview with Bloomberg Television, said he would probably forward reform recommendations to Bush by Jan. 1. "I'm sure we'd be prepared to make our recommendations, certainly by year end, to the president," he said.

...more...

[54anickel]

84. The White House Criminal Conspiracy (Heh-heh)

Snip>

Legally, there are no significant differences between the investor fraud perpetrated by Enron CEO Ken Lay and the prewar intelligence fraud perpetrated by George W. Bush. Both involved persons in authority who used half-truths and recklessly false statements to manipulate people who trusted them. There is, however, a practical difference: The presidential fraud is wider in scope and far graver in its consequences than the Enron fraud. Yet thus far the public seems paralyzed.

In response to the outcry raised by Enron and other scandals, Congress passed the Corporate Corruption Bill, which President Bush signed on July 30, 2002, amid great fanfare. Bush declared that he was signing the bill because of his strong belief that corporate officers must be straightforward and honest. If they were not, he said, they would be held accountable.

Ironically, the day Bush signed the Corporate Corruption Bill, he and his aides were enmeshed in an orchestrated campaign to trick the country into taking the biggest risk imaginable -- a war. Indeed, plans to attack Iraq were already in motion. In June, Bush announced his "new" pre-emptive strike strategy. On July 23, 2002, the head of British intelligence advised Prime Minister Tony Blair, in the then-secret Downing Street Memo, that "military action was now seen as inevitable" and that "intelligence and facts were being fixed around the policy." Bush had also authorized the transfer of $700 million from Afghanistan war funds to prepare for an invasion of Iraq. Yet all the while, with the sincerity of Marc Antony protesting that "Brutus is an honorable man," Bush insisted he wanted peace.

Americans may have been unaware of this deceit then, but they have since learned the truth. According to a Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted in June, 52% of Americans now believe the President deliberately distorted intelligence to make a case for war. In an Ipsos Public Affairs poll, commissioned by AfterDowningStreet.org and completed October 9, 50% said that if Bush lied about his reasons for going to war Congress should consider impeaching him. The President's deceit is not only an abuse of power; it is a federal crime. Specifically, it is a violation of Title 18, United States Code, Section 371, which prohibits conspiracies to defraud the United States.

So what do citizens do? First, they must insist that the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence complete Phase II of its investigation, which was to be an analysis of whether the administration manipulated or misrepresented prewar intelligence. The focus of Phase II was to determine whether the administration misrepresented the information it received about Iraq from intelligence agencies. Second, we need to convince Congress to demand that the Justice Department appoint a special prosecutor to investigate the administration's deceptions about the war, using the same mechanism that led to the appointment of Patrick Fitzgerald to investigate the outing of Valerie Plame. (As it happens, Congressman Jerrold Nadler and others have recently written to Acting Deputy Attorney General Robert McCallum Jr. pointing out that the Plame leak is just the "tip of the iceberg" and asking that Fitzgerald's authority be expanded to include an investigation into whether the White House conspired to mislead the country into war.)

more...

[ozymandius]

85. quitting time

Dow 10,440.07 +37.30 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,120.30 +30.42 (+1.46%)
S&P 500 1,207.01 +8.60 (+0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 45.59 -0.08 (-0.18%)
NYSE Volume 2,553,018,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,869,769,000

blather to come...

[ozymandius]

86. closing blather

Good night all! See you in the morning.

Ozy :hi:

Close Dow +37.30 at 10440.07, S&P +8.60 at 1207.01, Nasdaq +30.42 at 2120.30:

Today's market retained the bullish bias that infected Friday's session and closed the major indices comfortably above the flat line. More evidence of solid third quarter earnings teamed with a host of news on the M&A front, and a 2.3% pullback in the price of crude, in extending the prior session's rally. Leadership was active and gains were wide-spread; all ten of the economic sectors managed to maintain positive footing throughout the day. Consumer Discretionary was once again the standout, sporting a 1.9% gain that came on the heels of energy price action, rising retailers and surging department stores. Further to oil's decline, today's report from the AAA showed that nationwide prices at the pump have eased significantly over the past month. While also supporting the Consumer Staples sector (+0.8%), Wal-Mart's (WMT 47.30 +1.80) increased same store sales guidance for October contributed to the 3.0% retail surge. Department stores, meanwhile, ran after Saks (SKS 18.17 +1.51) announced its plan to sell its Northern department stores. With respect to Consumer Staples, notable strength in brewers paired with WMT's rise in offsetting a guidance-induced plunge in Kellogg (K 44.14 -2.32) shares. Although taking a brief oil-related detour, the Energy sector stood strong today and closed 1.3% higher. Upside earnings reports from Valero Energy (VLO 105.24 +5.74) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY 78.82 +1.92) led to its early rally and effectively catalyzed buying interest that countered the drop in crude. Brokers soared today - the AMEX brokerage index hit new highs - and sent the Financials sector to a weighty 0.6% gain. Some added focus rested upon Healthcare from the early going. Ahead of the bell, Humana (HUM 44.39 +0.47) reported Q3 earnings that exceeded analysts' estimates; Novartis (NVS 53.82 +0.42) announced that it will pay about $5.1 bln to acquire the remaining 58% stake of Chiron (CHIR 44.11 +0.71) that it does not already own; and Pfizer (PFE 21.74 +0.24) received approval for its Zeldox drug in Europe. The plethora of positive attention helped the sector climb 0.7%. Largely due to Yahoo's (YHOO 36.97 +1.39) and Apple's (AAPL 57.59 +3.12) credit, Technology lent a strong 1.4%. With respect to the latter, traders cheered iPod order data reported today, and sent shares soaring over 5%. Buying across the tech board was broad based, though, and fostered the Nasdaq's session-long outperformance. A sharp drop in Newmont Mining (NEM 42.60 -1.53), spurred by competitor Barrick Gold's (ABX 25.25 -1.25) bid for Placer Dome (PDG) and simultaneous indication of its intent to sell assets to Goldcorp (GG 19.96 +0.58), pressured Materials (+0.3%). However, Monsanto's (MON 63.01 +2.46) momentum, on reports of its new breed of soybeans, counteracted NEM's effect. Caterpillar (CAT 52.59 +1.52) emerged as one of the Dow's strongest gainers, rising after a bullish analyst meeting and following the company's comments that its forecast for dramatically improved performance includes $50 bln in sales by 2010; the stock offset selling across the Industrial sector and pushed it to a +0.2% lagging gain. Separately, the economic front offered some reassuring manufacturing and personal spending and income data. The reports ultimately garnered little attention today, though, as investors await tomorrow's FOMC meeting and the widely-expected twelfth consecutive 25 basis point increase to the fed funds rate.NYSE Adv/Dec 2442/812, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 2164/866

[loudsue]

87. Thanks again, Ozy, for all you do!! And ALL our great marketeers!!

:yourock:


:loveya:

Who loves ya??

loudsue