Goldman's Courtis: China's century..U.S. should embrace new economic power

[cthrumatrix]

Goldman's Courtis: China's century
Asia chief says U.S. should embrace new economic power

By Steve Kerch, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 11:05 AM ET Nov. 1, 2003


SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) -- If America looks realistically at China today, it just might see itself as it stood 100 years ago, says Kenneth Courtis, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs Asia.


"The real issue with China is not the currency issue that every politician is talking about. The real issue is a little bit like what the rest of the world faced 100 years ago with the rise of America as the world's dominant economy," Courtis told a gathering of the Urban Land Institute on Friday.

"The fact of this century will be the rise of China," he said.

"The question will be how do we integrate China into the global balance of power, how do we deal with such a powerful new player who wants to sit at the main table. If we can do that, then all of us will gain immensely."

more

Where the jobs go

The job issue, though, is likely to linger. Courtis argues that fears are unfounded that "everything is going to be transferred overseas."

"Of course there will be difficulties in transition. But the job declines in this country are not China's fault -- it's a factor, sure, but the bigger reason is because the U.S. has been generating productivity higher than real growth, meaning jobs can be cut," he said.
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http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={5F95E44F-0915-42E7-81F0-E36433444FB2}&siteid=mktw

[Philosophy]

1. China is the America of the future

Government controlled by rich elite.

Dissent punishable by jail, torture, execution.

Poor starving masses working for almost nothing.

People brainwashed by state controled media preaching nothing but jingoism and nationalism.

One party (Republican) rule.

[w4rma]

2. I don't know what worries me more

that fascist China will probably (especially after the Chimp's reign of economic destruction) overtake us, economically and therefore militarily, and therefore have more power over us.
or
that authors are downplaying this future event as a *good* thing.

[Pompitous_Of_Love]

3. Don't hold your breath

Remember all the hoopla in the press in the late 80s about Japan being the next great world power? And where is Japan now in economic terms? The dumper, that's where.

China's looming demographic and economic problems make Japan look like a piker. Their state banks are carrying a huge amount of bad debt; corruption is endemic in both government, military and what amounts to the private sector; ecological disaster looms in terms of aridity and the insane Three Gorges Dam project; social unrest haunts the mega-slums now lining the China Sea, where unemployment is endemic and millions of young men face the likelihood that they will never marry or have steady work. Chinese history swings wildly between rigid centralized control and absolute anarchy. I think they are on the verge of the latter. If this is China's century, it will be because China becomes a permanent human disaster on a scale so huge that the rest of the world cannot hope to stop it or even ease it.

[MrTriumph]

4. And remember Brazil?

Twenty years ago, I remember professors waxing pretty over the rise of Brazil. In the next twenty years Brazil would rival the US they said. Wrong!

And I remember one prof drawing a graph with one line labeled Communism and the other Capitalism. Eventually the lines intersected because he theorized Com. & Cap. would merge. Another dope!

Maybe I should ask for a refund in my tuition.