Iraq's Main Sunni Arabs Group Meets Kurds

[stop the bleeding]

BAGHDAD, Iraq -
Iraq's main Sunni Arab group made an unprecedented trip north to see the Kurds and agreed Monday for the first time on broad outlines for a coalition government — possibly opening a way out of the political turmoil that has gripped the country since disputed elections.

A promise of Iraqi army protection for tanker truck drivers reopened the country's main refinery — a last-ditch effort by the Shiite-led government to avert a fuel crisis that has led to deadly riots and the oil minister's resignation.

The violence that followed the Dec. 15 parliamentary elections was unabated. A suicide car bomber targeted a busload of police recruits north of Baghdad, killing seven people, and gunmen in the capital killed five workers.

As part of the bargaining for a new coalition government, President Jalal Talabani assured Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari that his fellow Kurds would not object if the United Iraqi Alliance — the Shiite religious bloc that won the most votes in the election — again nominates him for the prime minister post.

read more here:

01/02/2006 Iraq's Main Sunni Arabs Group Meets Kurds-SINAN SALAHEDDIN, Associated Press - yahoo.com

[Teaser]

1. But they're not negotiating with the shiites?

insane.

[enigma000]

2. The Kurds are religiously Sunnis as well

It may be easier for the Sunni Arabs to open negotiations with the Kurds than the Shia. And perhaps the idea is to use the Kurds as honest brokers for future talks between the Sunni and the Shia.

[Auntie Bush]

3. Am I correct in thinking that if the Kurds and Sunni's unit...they will

hold the majority? If so, will that crook Chalibe be prime Minister?

[muriel_volestrangler]

4. Not those 2 groups on their own - and Chalabi may get no seats at all

If Chalabi gets in to any sort of power, it will be by bribing and/or blackmailing someone.

The Shiite religious bloc may win about 130 seats in the 275-seat parliament - short of the 184 seats needed to avoid a coalition with other parties to elect a president. That election is a prerequisite before a government can be formed.

The Kurds could get about 55 seats, the main Sunni Arab groups about 50 - the Front getting about 40 and al-Mutlaq's group 10 - and Allawi secular's bloc could receive about 25.

A deal by the three groups - the Shiite United Iraqi Alliance, the Sunni Arab Iraqi Accordance Front and the Kurdish coalition - could go a long way toward quickly forming a government that would have widespread approval among Iraq's three main ethnic and sectarian groups, leading to a decrease in violence from Sunni Arab insurgents.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/01/03/news/web.0301iraq3.php

Adding those 3 groups (Kurds, Sunni, Allawi) together still only gives them 130 seats - the same as the religious Shiites. So there must be a few small parties who are expected to hold the remaining 15 seats. If the Kurds and the Accordance Front join a coalition with the UIA, they'd definitely have more than the 184 seats (two thirds) needed to elect the president - the UIA and Kurds on their own might not. But it would be so close that I'd think the deals wouldn't be announced until the exact number of seats is known in a couple of weeks.

[enigma000]

5. Good analysis

It makes sense, because the three main factions want to see what the exact numbers are before making too many deals. Either way the UIA will be the dominant power in any government (but we knew this already) The Shiites can play Kurds & Sunnis against each other.

Of course it also depends on the Sunnis gaining control of their own insurgency so they can bring a ceasefire to the table - I think the Shia will expect this at a minimum from the Sunnis.

[Auntie Bush]

6. Thanks for that fine concise explanation! Everyone should read

your post if they want a better understanding of what's going on. Thanks!

[Name removed]

7. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[enigma000]

8. Yes, it's all just a show

None of these groups or people exist. You figured it out - gold star for you.

The real political parties in Iraq are the: Order us to do your wishes White People Party (OUTDYWWPP) the Take our Oil Party (TOP) and the Us Sand-N*****s are Only Ok Napalmed or Exterminated (US-NO-ONE)

And the Green Zone? Its actually Crimson.