Tories surge nine points ahead of the Liberals (Canada)

[Minstrel Boy]

Tories surge nine points ahead of the Liberals, new poll suggests

OTTAWA (CP) - The Conservatives have vaulted to a nine-point lead over the incumbent Liberals with less than two weeks to go before election day, a new poll suggests.

The Decima Research poll, conducted Jan. 5-8, gave Stephen Harper's Tories 36 per cent support among voters who said they were either decided or leaning one way and likely to vote. That's up six points from Decima's last poll, conducted the previous week.

Paul Martin's Liberals, meanwhile, plummeted five points to 27 per cent, their support among left-of-centre voters eroded by the New Democrats, while Tories have eaten away at Liberal support outside major urban centres and in Quebec.

"The Liberals are hurting on three different flanks," said Decima CEO Bruce Anderson. The poll, made available exclusively to The Canadian Press, found NDP support up slightly at 20 per cent. Support for the Bloc Quebecois was down slightly at 11 per cent.

http://www.940news.com/nouvelles.php?cat=23&id=10929

[quiet.american]

1. Well, Canadians are always asking what's wrong with us. --

I guess now we can start asking what's wrong with them.

[Harper_is_Bush]

4. Quite simply put, it's our media...

they're so lined up behind the Conservatives it's stunning.

Something bizarre has happened with our media in this Country over the last several years. It appears like a rightwing takeover.

Control the media.....you know the rest.

Even the CBC, after constant accusations of liberal bias from rightwingers, seems to be attempting to appease those complainers by moving to the right. Our last friggin provider of centrist media is abandoning us.

[applegrove]

5. The debate tonight was not in that poll. And cons in Canada are

talking a windfall for the middle class and claiming they are not neocons. They also plan to cut taxes by more than twice the Liberals. The race has just begun.

Harper was asked tonight why he keeps talking about a minority instead of winning (as in the most optimistic push for votes & outcome). He couldn't even answer the question. When back and painted a picture of what a minority would be like.

He is in first place, and he is running on a minority. Doesn't want people to be scarred.

Wait until the polls after the debate. And the latest scandal brought up by the Bloq Quebecois - on referendum spending by the federal government - has conservative paw prints all over it.

[librechik]

17. are the Tories in favor of Bush? cuz if I were a true conservative

I'd hate Bush and want him gone...How is it in Canada? You hint at something regarding neocons--are the Tories in Canada pretending not to be neocons ?

[Spazito]

19. Yep, they are hiding their REAL agenda in hopes of fooling

enough Canadians that they are moderates which is very far from the truth. Harper is a bush wannabe and his party is racist and mean-spirited.

Even in the worst case scenario, if they were to win, it would be a minority government which means they would have to work with one of the opposition parties to stay in power and all the opposition parties lean left. My bet is, if they were to win, they will fall within a year and we will be back at the polls again next spring, at the latest.

[librechik]

20. thanks--I'm worried about the global reach of the neocon agenda

nobody to save us from the Nazis this time around, seems like--

:scared:

[Minstrel Boy]

21. they're getting into majority territory now

Harper's smart enough to still talk only of a minority, because he knows prospect of a majority will scare off votes. But polls now show them leading Libs in Ontario by ten points and tied with them in Quebec. It won't take much more for the trend to become a Conservative landslide.

[Spazito]

23. The polls will tighten up in the next two weeks, they always do

He will not get a majority. He is about to lose seats in British Columbia, his numbers are down here.

Edited to add this little goodie from the 04 election showing the media touted the same thing last time:

Tories claim five-point lead
Majority is within reach for Harper, poll says

Robert Fife
The Ottawa Citizen


Thursday, June 17, 2004

WINDSOR, Ont. - Stephen Harper's Conservatives have taken a sharp lead over the Liberal party as the Tory leader appealed to Canadians and "disenchanted Liberals" to give him a majority mandate so he can govern "for all Canadians."

A survey by the Liberal party's former pollster shows the Conservatives are heading for a strong minority government and may be within reach of a majority.

Party insiders say a poll by Michael Marzolini, chairman of Pollara, has the Tories at 36 per cent compared with 31 per cent for Paul Martin's Liberals.

The NDP is at 16 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 12.

http://www.canada.com/national/features/decisioncanada/story.html?id=1cf151eb-add6-45c9-9435-1c123e13de32

(and we know how wrong they were last time)

[Minstrel Boy]

24. hope so

I remember last time. But this time feels different. The scandal allegations are sticking, and Harper, aided by the media, is doing a better job of appearing moderate.

I don't think I'm exaggerating to say a Conservative majority could mean the end of Canada. With another Quebec referendum looming after Charest's certain defeat, can you imagine old Reformers representing the "No" side? They WANT Quebec out of Canada!

[BlueManDude]

139. You NDPers wanted this

you guys are to blame. have fun with your right wing government.

[AspenRose]

140. Ever since Tories merged with Reform Party

(when I think Reform I think Preston Manning) they've embraced their xenophobic side....and yes Stephen Harper is evil.

[hopeisaplace]

11. Are they ever behind the conservatives..it's disgusting

the news media covers 0 on Harper's plans, proposals, etc...they spend
all their time on so called "liberal corruption"..IMO there are back door
deals being made, there has to be..there is no other way to explain it.
People are soooo stupid to be buying this crap...The prospect of a conservative
government here (even in the minority) is making me gag.

[mtnester]

18. Unfortunately, we now it all too well

so, it appears history is about to repeat itself.

[Doctor_J]

30. Then you are pretty much doomed

The wheels came off down here when the ultra-right gained the stranglehold on the media. It's been a rapid descent into hell ever since.

[6th Borough]

46. Has Rupert Murdoch gotten his grubby hands on you guys yet?

He seems hell-bent on rebuilding the British Empire, one Algo ex-colony at a time...

[Spazito]

48. Well, his clone, Conrad Black, did, for a time

He bought up many newspapers and even started one, the National Post, to spew his right wing garbage but, as we all know now, he is 'financially strapped' due to his illegal acts and is a LITTLE busy trying to stay out of a US prison, roflmao!

[applegrove]

59. The aspers seem pretty controlling of the media and Liberal haters.

They hated Chretien - that is for sure. So we may have a partial cow-towed press. And then, I'm sure Harper, will do cutbacks at the CBC. And then we are doomed!

[Spazito]

63. Yep, if the faux Cons ever get majority power, the CBC is toast

no question about that.

[applegrove]

65. All education programs were cut by Mike Harris. Anything to do with

advocacy or educating the poor. Exactly the type of programs that help any underclass or excluded bunch of kids make it into adulthood with the right role-models and security.

[george_maniakes]

66. I seem to remember back in the early 90's...

something about privatizing the CBC. Eventually that talk disappeared as the liberals won and stayed in power.

[applegrove]

69. Well that is what they tried. Harper will not be able to do anything like

that if he only wins a minority. He will wait to win a majority and then, like Harris, he will chop everything three weeks into a mandate... and make sure the chopping happens in a timeframe to cause the most trauma possible - to punish all the poor poeple, students, journalists (whoever he chops) cause they love that the neocons. Social engineering by trauma. They love to teach their enemies lessons.

Freaks!

[george_maniakes]

73. If ya ask me though bob rae helped create mike harris.

You cannot run a government in the red like that. Funny thing is i enjoy hearing bob rae speak, and i like his politics. He just really sucked at keeping ontario fiscally afloat.

[applegrove]

79. Everyone was in debt at the time. And Conservatives in Ottawa were

cutting back on transfer payments and the like. Bob Rae did ingenious things like Rae days to cut back on debt. Sharing the paid with people making great salaries.

[6th Borough]

121. just a quick edit...algo should read ANGLO. /eom

[TroglodyteScholar]

76. Sounds eerily familiar....

Did that happen somewhere else a few years ago?

[Megahurtz]

134. What a disturbing trend,

in Canada yet?:banghead:

[hughee99]

2. The conservatives have learned their lessons

from 2004 (The US 2004 election) and have started to rig the opinion polls too.

[tritsofme]

14. Exactly!

Any poll whose outcome we do not like is obviously rigged!

That goes for elections too!

[Jersey Ginny]

3. What are the issues driving people to lean to the cons?

Do they WANT Canada to go to war? Do they really hate that there are some gay people who can have more safety and support thru marriage? What's up?

[applegrove]

6. They are just tired of Liberals being in power. Tired, tired, tired. And

Harper looks so relaxed. A real personality change. Most politicians spend their lives trying to change the bad parts of their personalities. The parts that don't come across. He managed to do an about flip half way through his political career.

How does that happen? Why is he so relaxed. He is the most relaxed person in the leadership race. He's done a 180 in that department. He must be belly breathing. He must be doing yoga. Christ - Harper is acting like a balloon on a sunny, lazy day in May. So much relaxed air coming out of him - he could save a handful of coal-minors on even a bad day in this campaign.

[rman]

137. just "tired"? no "because"?

seems quite implausible to me.

[Minstrel Boy]

7. It's really not the issues

so much as Liberal scandals (which, on an international scale, don't amount to much) fatigue (the Liberals have held office since 1993; after a while, a "give someone else a chance" dynamic kicks in) and the Conservatives' leader Harper succeeding in appearing more mainstream (ie, more small-l liberal) and less scary than he truly is.

Also, as mentioned above, most media barons are clearly rooting for Harper. Even CBC execs have made some very dubious decisions. For instance, running a documentary during the election that ridiculed public health care, while shelving a scheduled docu-drama about the life of the father of public health care, Tommy Douglas, for the reason that it might unduly influence the election. (Douglas, voted Greatest Canadian, was the first leader of the NDP.)

[george_maniakes]

8. go tobin!

I'd agree with whats already been said: people are just kinda tired of the liberals. While although i guess compared to the states our corruption scandals are of a smaller scale, we Canadians tend to easily get miffed when government corruption rears its head (we seem a little more forgiving when it comes to government waste though). I think a lot of people will be voting conservative (or not voting at all instead of liberal) because they feel the liberals have to be punished for what they did, like we punished the conservatives in 1993 for seriously fucking up Canadas finances.

I dont think it would be that bad of a thing if the conservatives won a weak minority. The conservatives will certainly have to play ball with the separatists in order to function, the canadian people will feel they got their message across, and it will give the liberals time to clean house and get some new players from the farm system, and give time for a significant part of the canadian media to take shots at the conservatives (unlike the states, we expect our press to question the government and take shots at all politicians, which is why these new right wing media guys up here seem so...wierd.) I'm personally hoping brian tobin is polishing up his french so he can take a run at being PM.

Unless the conservatives get a majority, there is no way they can pass any obvious right wing legislation.

[Jersey Ginny]

114. Thanks everyone! Very useful info n/t

[Canuckistanian]

26. dupe

[Canuckistanian]

27. I remember seeing an Ottawa Citizen headline

It said, "Conservatives Take Lead", in big type, splashed across the front page.

At the time, they were only ahead by about 2%, which is probably less than the MoE.

But I remember thinking that the Citizen is potraying this as 'great news', and not exactly being subtle about it.

[C_eh_N_eh_D_eh]

31. The Citizen is a Conrad Black paper.

'nuff said.

[daleo]

32. I don't know if he owns papers anymore

In fact, he may be doing time soon. I thought he sold most of his media interests to Canwest.

But, in any case, The Citizen is pretty hard right in my opinion.

[george_maniakes]

33. Canwest

Is it just me or does canwest in general seem right wing?

[Spazito]

34. Bingo, you are correct

Canada.com, the National Post, etc, all media outlets under CanWest lean right and in a very obvious way. They are the MOST biased in terms of politics and right wing policy.

[george_maniakes]

42. national post stinks

Gotta love the fact almost nobody buys it. And yet they keep churning it out there, hoping against hope.

[Spazito]

44. It was never set up to be anything but a propaganda rag and,

therefore, it doesn't have to be profitable or even close. My only joy is that the original proponent of this rag is about to be convicted on multiple charges, lol. Black has fallen as he should.

[applegrove]

61. Yes - National Post is a travesty. Very sad. That it is published.

[applegrove]

60. Very much so. Someone in Quebec is doing a study of print coverage

and says so far Harper annoncing some tax cut is always on page one. And Martin - talking about his policy is always on page 10. That is in the print media.

[george_maniakes]

67. I think its widely recognized though...

that the national post isnt a real newspaper.

[applegrove]

70. Yes - but other papers were included in this study. That is what annoys me

[Minstrel Boy]

37. Peter Kent

the deputy editor and former anchor of CanWest's Global TV News is running for the Conservatives in Toronto.

http://www.peterkent.ca/

[applegrove]

62. Well - if he worked for Can West then his job was to make fun of Chretien

while he was prime minister. That is all Can West accomplished the whole time Chretien was in power. So Peter Kent was surrounded by Kool-aid. Very sad.

[kitty1]

115. If anything, CanWest Global has major ties to liberals...

The former CEO of CanWest, Izzy Asper was head of the liberal party here in Manitoba back in the 70's. His family still has very strong ties to the current liberal government as far as I know. Izzy Asper used to be close to former PM Jean Chretien and other prominent liberals who came out to here to attend his funeral a few years ago.
The National Post newspaper, (also owned by the Aspers) was not a conservative paper, but seemed to side very much with American perpectives on issues. From my point of view anyway.

[george_maniakes]

117. I could be mistaken but...

i believe the aspers really hate the CBC for some reason. Odd since as you said Izzy was a prominent member of the liberal party. The national post still stinks though. Its sure as heck not a newspaper.

[Spazito]

132. You are correct, Izzy did everything possible to take down the CBC

He failed, thank goodness. Izzy was for privatization of everything, not a friend of those who support social programs. He was a friend of Chretien's but that means squat, imo. Izzy may have carried a liberal banner but, then again, Joe Lieberman carries a Dem banner, lol. CanWest leans very right, it is Izzy's children that are running the corporation now.

[lovuian]

9. Its hard to choose when both parties are corrupt Welcome to

America's plight...

[daleo]

10. I don't believe this poll

I simply don't. We went through this in the last election too - push polls predicting a Tory win two weeks before the election that didn't materialize on election day. I am betting this is the same.

I won't say I am not a little concerned, though.

[nine23]

12. I don't put much weight on it either...

...and even if I was just a wee bit concerned, there's absolutely nothing I could do to convince even the undecided. I'm in the West End on Vancouver. I could scream at my drunken neighbours at my local, I could hand out materials on street corners, I could make a preachy/lefty ass of myself at my neighbourhood izakaya bar...it wouldn't matter, we've all been Lib/NDP for decades. 'Left Coast' indeed...

It's out of our hands now.

[Minstrel Boy]

13. It's not just one poll or one polster

Here's a big Ekos poll showing the same pattern.

[daleo]

29. True, but we had the same phenomenon last election

Lots of polls were reporting this way before the election. Here are some results from about three weeks or less before the June 28 election:

Ipsos-Reid poll (2004-June-25): Liberal 32%, Conservative 31%, NDP 17%, BQ 12%, Green 6%

SES Research nightly tracking poll (2004-June-16) (changes from first day, 2004-May-25, listed in parentheses): Conservatives 34% (+6), Liberals 32% (-9), NDP 19% (+1), BQ 12% (+1), Green 3% (0)

Ipsos-Reid poll (2004-June-15): Liberal 31%, Conservative 32%, NDP 17%, BQ 12%, Green 6%

SES Research nightly tracking poll (2004-June-7) (changes from first day, 2004-May-25, listed in parentheses): Conservatives 34% (+6), Liberals 32% (-9), NDP 20% (+2), BQ 11% (0), Green 4% (+1)

The final popular vote was Lib 36.7%, Conservatives 29.6%, Bloc 12.4%, NDP 15.7%, Green 4.3%.

The fact that the corporate media are all publishing the same results may not be as meaningful as people think. I sometimes analyze survey data at work, so I know (as I am sure you do as well) that there are a lot of tricks used to move percentages in particular directions, such as question phrasing, question order, etc.

Nonetheless, I would prefer to not see the Harper Conservatives ahead at any time.

Here is a wiki article, with poll tracking:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2004_Canadian_election

[Canuckistanian]

43. I saw another poll result last night, very interesting

The question was, "Who do you expect to be in power after the election?"

The results? 54% said the Liberal Party.

I don't know what to make of that. Either the Conservatives have a "mile-wide, inch deep" support or people are really struggling to decide.

[Minstrel Boy]

49. that suggests to me

a lot of people are only comfortable voting Conservative if they can be certain that the Liberals will still form the government.

There's a prevailing mood that the Liberals deserve a spanking. If they get spanked so hard it looks like they'll be defeated, there'll be a movement back towards them. (At least that's my thinking as of this moment!)

[Spazito]

50. I agree, the thinking has not changed, in any substantive way, from

the 04 election. The voters wanted to smack the Libs hard enough to hurt them but not so hard as to put the faux Cons in power and, imo, the feeling remains the same. It makes for bad polling even with a credible polling organization.

[george_maniakes]

56. martin and chretien

The funny thing is although chretien was probably doing some funny buisness with public money and martin wasnt, I still like chretien more then martin. Although he skated just as much as any politician, he seemed so direct in his point of view.

[applegrove]

64. I think Chretien is a hedge hog (sure of his views and stubborn), Martin

a Fox like Clinton (who has to study every angle of an issue to make a choice and gets lost sometimes). Where have Chretien has a few core values and belief systems and runs policy through that so intrinsically knows how to sell or defend it - because it is a part of him and therefor he is mostly being honest when he speaks about policy - Martin is more removed from the issue - though he can get passionate.

Harper is on another planet from all the issues he talks about. Instead of being cold this time. He is giving good air - belly breathing the whole time he speaks. Still a gap between policy and his heart of about 1 million miles. Teaching someone to do yoga before they go on the air - isn't making them a good person. And with 50Billion in tax cuts - which will force closure of all sort of social programs (and neocons always shut down education & advocacy first) the cities will start to deteriorate as deficit rises and the country is sunk in the bathtub. And look too for Canada to spend shitloads on the army. Apparently that is the strategic plan for us via the USA. That oil windfall from the tar sands over the next 100 years? Social programs? No way! It will all be spend on going in and cleaning up after Americans shock and awe. Nice way to live your life - except it isn't!

[george_maniakes]

75. I dont mind if the feds spend more on the military...

I mind the way the conservatives wanna spend on the military though. They wanna put more soldiers in bagotville quebec to help the local economy. Thats dumb if ya ask me. And putting more soldiers in our cities...to do what? March and do drill? Shovel snow?

[applegrove]

82. I'm more concerned that peace-keepers will end up in messes like

Iraq. We know the USA would invade Venezuela if it could. And that is where our peace keepers will end up - instead of perhaps Dafur or Kosovo or places that have instrinsic problems.

Today peacekeepers are in the Congo. USA deposed their Chavez in the 1960s and replaced him with a dictator who stole money. And as it was known then, Zaire, is sparsely populated and the richest most resource endowed country in Africa. So because USA policy was anti - democracy if the first leaders elected were left in nature - peacekeepers are there to try and stabilize a nation destabilized by aggressive foreign policy.

That is my worry. Not that we shouldn't peacekeep or go on humanitarian missions. But that the real ones will be ignored while new wars are dreamed up in Washington.

[Spazito]

78. LOL, I agree, I don't trust Martin as far as I could throw him and

do NOT want the Libs to get a majority government again until he is no longer the leader, him or his ilk like Manley. I am not sure who I would trust among the current crop of Liberals, to be honest, to take the leadership.

[applegrove]

83. Really? They voted against the Iraq war (intelligence made no sense to

CSIS), they said not to Bush's star wars. They have been aggressive about softwood lumber. Why don't you trust them?

[Spazito]

85. If Martin had had a majority government, we would have become

part of the Missile Defense fiasco of the US. Martin was and is supportive of participating and has said so in the past. The only reason Martin said no to MDS was because he was in a minority situation. As to Iraq, he was VERY quiet during that time, it was Chretien that said No, not Martin. He is complex, imo. He has a very genuine social conscience that shows at times but he also has the corporate businessman side, the one that made sure his shipping corporation was able to access and use the off shore loophole to avoid paying Canadian taxes and that, imo, stinks. My feel is that the corporate businessman side is stronger than the social conscience side ergo I don't trust him.

[applegrove]

94. You could not compete in the shipping industry if you didn't re-flag.

That was the first industry to be "outsourced". Those 500 jobs in Canada would have gone somewhere else. In terms of management positions. And all the union jobs would have gone to outside (non canadian) corporations. And they would have been paid less when Canadians were hired. And fewer Canadians would have been hired.

That is a fact. Shipping is just that - the first industry easily outsourced. You either have what we have or you have nothing. No other way to do it.

With such a big export market - of natural resources and now such a big import market - would you have that industry go to someone outside the country or not.

Absolutely no choice.

And as pro business as Martin is - he is also pro-social programs. I agree that the tax cuts for business would have happened in May instead of over the summer if the NDP had not been part of the minority government. NDP was for small business tax cuts - cause that is the area where jobs are these days. So you could say that NDP is pro-small business. They also stand for something else. Working families.

Liberals are for social programs. I like it when the Liberals work with the NDP. That is how we got health care to start with. But no doubt - Martin is more trusworthy that Harper. No doubt. Harper will cut the 60 Billion in taxes he has promised, the country will go back into debt and social programs will be cut. That is what neocons do - to rip apart the relationship between Canadians and their social programs. It is how neocons try and rip the heart out of Liberal voters.

Workers were not well served by debt in the late 1970s or 1980s. They faced massive unemployment. Fact is - you either balance the books and have social programs or you don't. When the NDP wins provincially - they govern fiscally conservative too. They do. Cause it means jobs. And healthy economy that can afford social programs.

Harper's plan for a $25 dollar a week tax cut so that families can afford child care - is pathetic.

[Spazito]

98. As an elected member of parliament, I don't feel your argument

holds water. An elected member of parliament should not be actively avoiding paying Canadian taxes simply because they can, imo. I think a more accurate statement would be that his corporation would not profit as much if they had to pay the taxes owed, it is as simple as that.

If his shipping corporation was more important than paying the Canadian taxes owed, he should not have run even as an MP, and certainly not as leader.

Because I don't trust Martin certainly I equate him, in any way, with Harper and the faux Cons. Quite the opposite but that doesn't mean I have to turn a blind eye to what I don't like about him either. He has not proven he is trustworthy yet, to me anyway. He may yet or not.

[applegrove]

101. Well you are certainly entitled to what you feel. Reflaging is nothing

to be proud of. But there is alot of shipping going on around Canada - and I for one am glad some of it is in Canadian hands and results in Canadian jobs. And taxes being paid in Canada at some level. The same thing a Ford putting plants in Ontario. You either want it or you get nothing. There is no Canadian Car industry because we could not compete. But you can get jobs out of it. At the very least. And yes - it is the very least.

[daleo]

51. That's interesting

I guess things are, as they say, fluid. Harper has gotten an easy ride so far, but there is lots in his record to give most Canadians pause. I think that will be operative from this point onwards.

I still won't take the polls very seriously. Probably the most accurate polls are the ones the parties do themselves and keep secret.

[Bragi]

15. I believe the Cons will win...

Not only will they win, but it increasingly looks like they are nearing majority territory. Its shaping up like one of those elections we have in Canada federally and provincially where the ruling party comes back with but a handful of seats. The only thing that stands between the CPC and a majority government is the Bloq.

The reason for the collapse of the Libs does have to do with media, but I don't think it's because Canadian media are particularly right wing. Rather, Canadian media are addicted to scandal and corruption allegations. As Simpson argues in today's Globe, by setting up the Gomery Commission, Martin gave media a two-year sustained opportunity to cover corruption every day, and still be home in time for dinner.

Also, Canadian media generally just like the idea of changes in government not for ideological reasons, but because it's more interesting than having a government re-elected, and good copy for them.

As for what it all means for Canada, I think it means we are going to have the Republican Party North in power for at least a while, and maybe for a couple of terms.

This won't be good for Canada, in my view, but how bad it will get depends really on whether Harper decides to operate as a traditional middling Canadian Conservative, a la Mulroney, or has the balls to govern like the right-wing ideologue he really is.

Personally, my money is on the latter, especially if and when he gets a majority.

Incidentally, as for calling Harper and his party "neocons", I'm not sure that term has a lot of relevance in the Canadian context, since neoconservatism is really a US phenom defined by a particular brand of aggressive foreign policy.

It is fair to call the the CPC "GOP North", though, since despite their success in getting media to cover liberal scandals instead of what Harper believes, his extreme right-wing leanings are evident, and he is very much in step with US Republicans on most social and economic policy matters.

Finally, if anyone wants to learn about our new rulers, there are two revealing (though quite uncritical) books out on Harper, and Preston Manning's autobiography also sheds light on just where Harper and his group come from.

- B

[Spazito]

22. Mulroney took Canada down to almost third world status where

IMF was threatening to step in, he was far from a 'traditional middling Canadian conservative', he was a total disaster and sold Canada out to Reagan. If you want an example of a 'traditional middling Canadian conservative, that would be Joe Clark NOT 'Lyin' Brian.

Harper won't get a majority, of that I am sure. It will, if he wins at all, be a minority government and he will have to work with one of the opposition parties, all of which are left, so he will fall within a year, imo.

[george_maniakes]

35. bring back joe!

Man if only Mackay hadnt made a deal to merge the progressive conservatives with the canadian alliance. Honestly if joe clark was still leader of the PC's i would have voted for them this time, and i think this election would have launched the PC's back to at least a minority win.

The only way i can see the conservatives get a majority is if they luck out and have the NDP/Liberals vote split every where in their favor.

[Spazito]

105. I liked Joe too, he was an actual conservative unlike the current

phonies. MacKay sold out the Conservative Party, sold out whatever principles he might have had for a shot at the perceived 'gold'. Harper better not turn his back on MacKay, he is no safer than the Conservative party was, one a traitor, always a traitor and MacKay was a traitor.

I wouldn't have voted for Joe this time but wouldn't have been frightened if his old Conservative party were the one to win a minority government while this neocon party pretending to be Conservative scares the crap out of me.

[george_maniakes]

106. I wonder where all the old red tories have gone.

The ones that made the PC's progressive. They fall off the face of the earth or what? I'd laugh if joe clark came out and said vote martin again.

[Minstrel Boy]

107. They went everywhere. It's said they've taken over the Green Party.

At least that's what disaffected former Greens say, including the previous leader, who's now an NDP supporter. The current leader, Jim Harris, is a former Progressive Conservative, and he brought a lot of former Tories with him who elbowed out the old Green leadership.

[Spazito]

108. I think they are trying to start another party, I don't remember the

name but it seems to be trying to re-establish the old Conservative party. I haven't heard that much about the new party but, the last I heard, it was still in existence.

[Minstrel Boy]

109. Here ya go:

The Progressive Canadian Party

[Spazito]

111. Thanks, Minstrel Boy, I was hoping a poster could provide

the info.

[Spazito]

16. Poll shows undecided voters more likely to go Grit

OTTAWA — Uncommitted voters outside Quebec, who could determine the outcome of the close-fought federal election, were more likely to ultimately support the Liberals than the Conservatives, a new poll suggests.

The Decima Research online voter-tracking study found uncommitted voters in English Canada were less preoccupied than average with scandal and less likely to want change _ all of which augurs well for Prime Minister Paul Martin's party.

snip

Both groups share a below-average preoccupation with the sponsorship scandal, a weaker desire for change and the conviction that the eight-week campaign didn't really start until the new year.

The latter point could prove damaging for Harper, who unveiled most of his party's major platform planks prior to the Christmas holidays. Martin has saved his major announcements for the new year, although so far they have been overshadowed by renewed focus on alleged government ethical lapses.

more

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20060103/decima_poll_060108/20060108?s_name=election2006&no_ads=

(The same thing happened in the last election, the swing or 'strategic' voter aspect kicks in when Canadians see there is a real possibility of the faux Cons getting in and they vote strategically to stop them.)

[hogwyld]

25. Noooo! Don't do it!

Dear Canada, please don't be seduced by the dark side. Your liberal government is a global beacon of hope for the world. Don't be fooled into voting for the conservative siren song.

[Miss Chybil]

28. Conservatives taking over the world.

They own the machines and the media.

[HuffleClaw]

36. complete hogwash

utter and complete garbage. harper was a stammering fool last night during the debate. he stuttered his way through questions and spent more time attacking martin than anything. he STILL doesn't realize it only makes him look like the bully he is. and his 'wannabe american' persona was finally exposed too. he's screwed. even with the moderator making it into an 'attack martin' debate, martin didn't get rattled like harper did. they really spent far too much time on the quebec issue, and ducceppe (sp?) didn't help his own case much in that part at all. he's a one trick pony that guy. and layton? he's the comic relief.

[daleo]

38. Your analysis is interesting

I didn't actually watch the debate, but I read the Globe and Mail this morning. I could only infer from the fact that they DIDN'T have a huge headline praising Harper that he must not have shown that well.

[applegrove]

96. I thought Layton did really well. Much better than the first english

debate.

[hopeisaplace]

104. My hubby and I agree with your assessment

Harper looked like a fool. He did not look or sound like a leader. He sounded like a..
hmmmmm...let me find the words....hmmmm..."a puppet".

I don't doubt for one second that if there is another war the US is involved in, that with
Harper leading Canada, we'll be in it. Not for one second do I doubt that.

[Amonester]

39. Paul Martin is about to switch in attack mode...

Yep. That's what I think...

All he has to do is to ask: "Do you really want that hypocrit, Harper, to send your kids to lose their limbs and/or to die in Iraq? Is this what you really want?" or "Do you really want to send billions of CDN $ in Iraq for Harper's "friends"? Is it what your really want? Because Harper's not telling you before the election? No. He's just waiting for a few the days AFTER the election..."

That's what he should say (or says). The truth...
Good ol' Reality Check...

[Minstrel Boy]

40. here are the new attack ads:

http://www.liberal.ca/multimedia_e.aspx?id=70

Eight new TV spots. For instance: "Choose Your Canada: Washington Times"

[Spazito]

45. Yep, just as I predicted, they saved the hard hitting ads until

after the holidays when Canadians might pay attention while, all the while, Harper was spouting false policy promises to a totally disinterested and unfocused voting population. They are about a week late, imo, but, hopefully, better late than never!

[Gloria]

144. Gee, I wish we had Democrats who asked pertinent questions

for dumbass Americans to consider....they might wake up if they had a few questions tossed at them....I begged Kerry to do that in an article I wrote during the election...

[george_maniakes]

41. would you trust this man with the not-withstanding clause?

I think the media in general is going to be shining a spotlight on harper again towards the end of the campaign. The guy in front usually goes through it.

[arikara]

47. I don't believe the polls

I had a really good article from last week I wanted to post here about how they are skewing them but unfortunately I can't find it.

Harper is managing to keep his party reined in so far but that nutty bunch won't last out. The disappointment is Jack. He must have hired Kerry's campaign manager.

The debate put both me and my husband to sleep. Literally.

[JohnyCanuck]

52. Harris and his neocon ties

Political animal can't hide neo-con spots, Linda McQuaig argues
Toronto Star
Jan. 8, 2006. 01:00 AM
LINDA MCQUAIG

In January 2001, Stephen Harper and five others published an open letter in the National Post urging Alberta to beef up its fight with Ottawa by building a "firewall" around itself and take greater control over its own affairs.

Complaining that tax revenues from Alberta were subsidizing other Canadians, the "firewall letter" sounded downright hostile to the rest of the country.

Its attitude is typical of a group of right wingers, centred around U.S-born academic Tom Flanagan of the University of Calgary. This "Calgary school," with which Harper is very closely allied, peddles a Canadian version of Paul Wolfowitz-style neo-conservatism, and it likes the idea of using oil-rich Alberta as a right-wing battering ram against the more socially democratic vision of Canada that prevails in much of the rest of the country.

<snip>

Carefully out of sight is Harper's attack on Ottawa two years ago for not joining the U.S. invasion of Iraq. Harper even stirred the waters of anti-Canadian feeling south of the border by denouncing Ottawa's decision in an interview with U.S. TV channel Fox News, and also in The Wall Street Journal.

No wonder Harper was recently lauded in the Washington Times as "pro-Iraq war, anti-Kyoto, and socially conservative ... the most pro-American leader in the western world."

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_PrintFriendly&c=Article&cid=1136589011460&call_pageid=968256290204

Man if he is more Pro-American (they really mean Pro-Neocon/Pro-Bush of course) than Tony "The Poodle" Blair we could be in some pretty deep shit should he get a majority.

[Canadian_moderate]

53. Sorry folks

But I've decided to vote Conservative. I used to be a Progressive Conservative voters, but was disoriented and shifted to the Liberals in the last couple of elections.

I'm a social liberal, but I'm very much a conservative on fiscal issues. Last night I missed the first 1/2 hours (attended pre-natal classes), but after watching most of the debate last night I've actually decided to vote Conservative again. I'm willing to give Harper the benefit of the doubt after having spent the last few weeks seeing the Liberals go from low to lower. This campaign has been a disaster and they do not deserve to be re-elected.

Canada has enough government intervention and we do not need more government programs (such as national daycare). I will always be a strong supporter of public education and healthcare, but I would prefer to make my own choices when it comes to daycare and I'd prefer not to pay for public daycare that I will likely never use. Tax credits and other incentives are the way to go, not more bloated gov't programs.

My vote likely will not make a difference here in downtown Toronto where the fights will mostly be between Liberals and the NDP, but Harper's excellent campaigning performance will certainly make the difference in the rest of Ontario. After 12 years of Liberals, it's time for change on the federal scene here in Canada.

Sorry folks, but I'm not convinced that Harper is GWB jr. I would never voted NDP and the Liberals have just lost my support.

[george_maniakes]

54. What happened to debt reduction?

I'm a big fan of continuing to pay off the debt like the liberals have been doing. I'm surprised i dont hear that coming from harper. Also, instead of reducing the gst by a point, id rather increase the amount of things that are gst free. Like in quebec books are provincial sales tax free. I think that could be a significant help to low income earners.

As a side point, anyone have a clue where to find info on whats actually gst free? I know some basic grocery items are, but thats all i know.

[Canadian_moderate]

71. Actually, this is where I differ from the Conservatives

I don't think the GST should be cut. In fact, I would prefer a harmonized GST where the feds and the provinces would share the revenue. I was in Australia last year and liked the way their 10% GST was included in their listed prices. There was no additional state sales tax, just 10% GST.

I think it's important that the debt be further reduced. That said, this is not likely to happen when the Liberals have to fulfill their promises either.

Personally, I prefer tax credits or other types of incentives over a national daycare plan. I don't want more government plans. I would perfer that the government create incentives rather than arrange and provide these types of services.

[george_maniakes]

74. At least martin though recognizes debt repayment...

as fundamental. As it should be. We can never allow what almost happened in the early ninties to happen again. We must be fiscally strong so we can be in a position to dictate our values into our economy. Government debt is like a cancer.

[Canadian_moderate]

77. I totally agree with you on debt

Any money spend financing debt takes away money from much needed programs such as public health and public education.

That why I tend to lean fiscally conservative. Spending money we don't have should not be rewarded by voters.

[Spazito]

80. Hmmm, then you must have totally missed the Mulroney era!

He, a Conservative, took Canada so far down the debt road the IMF was threatening to step in which would have put us in line with becoming a third world country. The Conservatives have NEVER been fiscally responsible and the faux Cons certainly aren't going to be either. Tax cuts for the rich while cutting social programs is their agenda. If you are voting for the faux Cons for fiscally conservative policies, you had best go back and do your homework, imo.

[HuffleClaw]

84. they will NOT do a damn thing to the GST if elected

and they bloody well know it. what would happen is a looooong study 'in committee' and other classic delaying tactics and an eventual 'admission' that, 'sorry folks, but it's not gonna happen.'

its a campaign promise, nothing more. and a cheap one at that.

[Minstrel Boy]

55. Something tells me

you're really not that sorry.

"I'm not convinced that Harper is GWB jr"

Washington Times, Dec 2:

Gift from Canada?

Why does President Bush hope Christmas comes a little late this year? Because on Jan. 23, Canada may elect the most pro-American leader in the Western world. Free-market economist Stephen Harper, leader of the opposition Conservative Party, is pro-free trade, pro-Iraq war, anti-Kyoto, and socially conservative. Move over Tony Blair: If elected, Mr. Harper will quickly become Mr. Bush's new best friend internationally and the poster boy for his ideal foreign leader.

[george_maniakes]

57. Its funny how the best thing the liberals can do...

is say "do you want to give these people a majority?". I think a conservative minority would be quite a hoot though. All the far right wing hacks pushing harper to move their agenda forward with harper constantly telling them to shush for now cause its only a minority.

[Canadian_moderate]

72. Before this campaign

I was also fully convinced that Harper was evil. Right now, I'd liek to give him the benefit of the doubt and I hope he ends up with a workable minority gov't.

[Spazito]

58. LOL, in a free country, you can vote for whom you want

no apologies needed. Ain't it great! I have to say I am not surprised at your vote though.

[Canadian_moderate]

68. I wanted to support the Liberals

I've always liked Paul Martin and I had avery intention of voting for him when the campaign began, but his policy anouncements are not hitting home with me.

I would never support the NDP because I don't want my gov't to look after things that I should be looking after myself, but the Liberal policies seem to be moving way to the left for campaign and I think it's forcing people like me to reconsider.

I've never been a socialist , but I consider myself to be a liberal on most social issues. That said, I cannot consciously vote for the Liberals this time.

[Spazito]

81. If you are truly a moderate Conservative, concerned about fiscal

accountability, where were you during the Mulroney era? The last Conservative government almost ruined Canada fiscally and this faux Con party will do no less. If you are rich and care only about tax cuts for the rich and cutting social programs then you are voting for the right party.

[Canadian_moderate]

86. I'm well aware of what Mulroney did

I certainly don't consider myself rich. My wife and I have good jobs and we pay our fair share of taxes, but we don't live in luxury by any means.

While I'm a social liberal/moderate, I don't believe in big government and that government knows best on many issues that we should take responsibility for ourselves. That is what has resonated with me during this campaign. Hey, maybe this is the campaign version of Harper and he will morph into his evil former self, but I will take that chance knowing that he will not last if he allows the extrmists in his party to run amok.

[Spazito]

89. You didn't say how you felt about the way in which the last

Conservative government ran the budget so far into the red it took years to get back to a balanced budget. How do you see the Harper government, especially knowing Mulroney is one of his TOP advisors, acting differently? Or does it really matter to you?

[Canadian_moderate]

91. I've obviously stated that I do not like deficits and debt

Tax cuts should not take place unless there is an excessive surplus.

The federal surplus was partially created by downloading and transfer cuts to the provinces. If we want programs they will have to be paid for by someone. The is no meigcal solution including having 0.5% of the richest Canadians paying for the rest of us.

I beleive that the Conservatives have adjusted their policies to more favourably suit the Canadian political spectrum. If they turn out as evil as everyone says we can vote them out again. with a minority, this could happen quite early if needed.

I also remember that Mulroney did not create the debt, he continued a policy of debt financing from his predecessor.

Another issue that resonates with me is democratic reform and proportional representation. I'm not sure if they will go there, but I sure as hell hope so. I would prefer to see coalition governments that reflect the will of the majority of Canadians.

[Spazito]

92. LOL, there it is, the Mulroney excuse!

I knew it was only a matter of time before it appeared. "It wasn't Mulroney's fault, it was the other guy's". Given that Mulroney's actions caused the Canadian voter to totally repudiate all things Conservative and left them with only TWO seats the next election, it would seem the Canadian voter DID feel Mulroney was responsible. What proof do you have that they have "adjusted their policies to suit the Canadian political spectrum"? Have you noticed the lack of detail in those policies? They are really little more than motherhood statements lacking in any detail to which they can be held at a later date.

[Canadian_moderate]

93. Did I say that?

No, I fully blame Mulroney for not balancing the budget (or at leats trying to do so) during his 8 years as PM. Yes, that is why I voted Liberal in 1993.

[Spazito]

95. I felt you were saying exactly as I posted above given your

comment about it with NO mention of blame for Mulroney himself. I am glad you have clarified your position. Now, about the policies and their lack of detail, do you have any comments on that?

[george_maniakes]

99. The fact that mulroney continued a policy of government debt...

in no way excuses what he did. He brought this country to the point of bankruptcy, not trudeau. As regards to proportional representation, im still a believer in having an mp who i vote for represent my riding, although the idea of an elected senate chosen by proportional representation intrigues me. However, i do not want the senate having power like in the states, or even having veto power. We have enough politics as it is with just the house of commons.

[applegrove]

97. Liberals are the fiscal conservatives & the social liberals. Neocons

are not fiscal conservatives. They cut taxes and try and drown liberal social programs in the bath-tup. That is what they do.

[george_maniakes]

100. What the hell are we cutting taxes for anyways.

Keep paying down the debt.

[hopeisaplace]

102. Exactly! You got that right.

When has a conservative been "fiscally responsible" ??? When. I don't remember when?
Conservatives..from the word "con".

[applegrove]

118. Conservatives are people who want to pass on a huge debt to

the government that forms after them.

[hopeisaplace]

119. yep, I know that all to well now,

but the average person may never figure this out..damn


edit: typo

[hopeisaplace]

122. that's what I believe too..they make the mess and

leave others to clean it up

[applegrove]

124. They leave a huge debt for others - the neocons do - to force social

program cuts, to force voters to be unhappy with governance. So government will only be for the elites. It will only serve their needs.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

88. Same exact arguments I heard in 2000 over here.

I don't remember bush saying vote for me I'm a right wing sociopath, but here we are. I guess we never learn.

[Canadian_moderate]

90. Fool me once...

you know the rest. Shame on you guys for being fooled twice.

Like I said, based on this campaign and the policies that have been discussed, I have no reason to believe that Harper is going to take us on an extreme path. He should know by now that the Canadian political spectrum is a totally different animal from Alberta or the USA.

[whosinpower]

103. You have only to read the speech he gave to an american think tank

In Montreal.......and then you might reconsider your initial thoughts.

His appraisal of Canada was an insult and he has no right - absolutely no right to be leader of Canada saying the sorts of things he said about us - you and me and our country.

If Harper had been Prime Minister - we WOULD be in Iraq.
we WOULD of signed onto missile defense
we WOULD of ceded our rights to defend our borders.
we WOULD be giving up Canada......

I cannot - I love this country too much to do this. And four years is far too long to do far far too much damage. He is not a moderate - as much as he'd like to paint. And I feel kinda sorry for the conservative party - they have been hijacked.

[Guy Whitey Corngood]

110. Hey, knock yourself out then. But I can smell bullshit from a mile away.nt

[CHIMO]

112. Suggest

That you take some formal education in Canada!

[applegrove]

126. Go to the Liberal site and look at the counter on Harper's tax cuts.

Billions & billions in debt with Harper's 60 Billion in promised tax cuts.

Social programs will then be cut. For the next decade. Because you cannot possibly get that much tax from the rich at one time.

[applegrove]

125. You would think after Mike Harris - Ontarioans would know.

[Harper_is_Bush]

113. You're a social lib, but because you won't use daycare you won't pay?

That's strange.

Are you aware that the Conservative daycare plan is basically the same thing tried by the Harris government in Ontario? Tell me, why will tax credits create daycare spaces?

It sounds like you're voting for Harper because it's "time for a change" and because Harper's had "excellent campaigning". What else decides your vote, sunny vs. rainy days?

Good grief man....you cannot be all that educated about what Harper is on record as saying in the recent past (within the last 5 years) if you don't see him as a version of Bush.

Let me know if you need education in that regard and I'll dig up links.

[george_maniakes]

116. To be honest after all the scandals...

i have days where i feel we should vote out the liberals to spank them. Then i look at the other parties and hold my nose while voting liberal, hoping the liberals will somehow get the message.

[hopeisaplace]

120. well if the conservatives take a majority here in Canada

here are my predictions (although this is easy to predict)

1. Next US war, if any, we'll be in it.
2. Increased Military spending...that's public knowledge already..
Harper sent a letter to the Premier of Newfoundland already promising the
opening of a military base there I think? Article at CBC I do believe
3. The gay marriage issue back on the table at some point
4. The erosion of the surplus
5. Quebec Separation WILL become an issue when Harper will not be
able to deliver what he is promising to Quebec, and apparently the
big lead he now has, has a lot to do with Quebec voting conservative! OMG. How the
hell do people in Quebec vote conservative when they are so socially
liberal...on the news tonight, apparently it's because of the New Federalism
Harper is promising Quebec (more autonomy, more representation internationally)
6. I predict higher crime too.

There you have it, my psychic predictions..no charge :)

[applegrove]

127. Block Quebecois is talking about another "scandal". Tories were involved.

[Canadian_moderate]

143. My ISSUE is not daycare

It's just an example. I am much more concerned with democractic reform. I want each of the major parties to be awarded seats in parliament based on the % of the national vote they attain.

I also do not want a federal gov't that continue to insult the people of Quebec by trying to bribe them. For a country as diverse as Canada is, both geographically and demographically, decentralization may be the only way we can move forward. The Liberals have had the last 12 years and things have not improve with regards to unity and democratic reform. Maybe the Conservatives and the NDP will be interested in moving on the issue of proportional representation.

Like I said earlier, don't worry, with the current parliamentary system, my vote is being wasted anyways since my riding will be a battle between the Liberals and the NDP.

While I'm liberal/libertarian on social issue, I do not want the government to intrude on my personal life too much. I feel that I have my reasons for the way I will vote.

[HuffleClaw]

87. i'd also like to remind those who want to vote conservative

that the ONLY thing harper has going for him is his holding onto the sponsorship scandal like a drowning victim to a life ring. its ALL he has. harper pretends to make some promises about the gst and other very simplistic things that some foolish voters will fall for, but thats it. the TRUE side to harper is a complete fawning affection to US neocon principles and ideas. he'd have our troops in iraq before the summer if it was up to him. and he'd hand over our sovereignty as much as possible too, with american ideas about a 'smart border' and 'aligning' our immigration policy to match washington's. he's a horror.

[Endangered Specie]

123. Whew I'm glad I don't have to vote in Canada...

NDP: way too far left for me.
Greens: same, though not as bad.
Liberals: scandal, seem very uncharismatic, not to happy about the "ban all guns" wave.
Conservative: Don't trust that whole "we're really moderates" bit, no matter how bad the other guys got, could never in good consience vote for a right wing party.
Bloq: obvious reasons


Who does that leave?:shrug:

[JohnyCanuck]

131. Well there's still the Canadian Action Party - CAP

Canadian Action Party

http://www.canadianactionparty.ca

Introduction to Policies

All of CAP's policies are common sense and solution oriented. They are fundamental and basic to the very nature of a sovereign, free and democratic Nation. A nation must have control over its monetary system in order to implement any social programs. We must have truly responsible, transparent, accountable representation in our elected officials. All trade deals must be in the best interest of Canadians and our environment as the foundation of the deal. The Canadian Action Party is committed to ensuring that we stop the erosion of Canada as an independent nation capable of governing itself. Our policies focus on these (4)main points, which all other policies connect to and are dependant upon. Without these solid points addressed, Canada becomes a shell of a country, a colony under corporate rule. (This is the short version please refer to the pdf for the in depth version)

1. -Sovereignty-
2. the ability to make laws and decisions for Canadians by Canadians -Monetary Control-
3. the ability to use our Bank of Canada as it was intended -Civil Rights?
4. as guaranteed under our Charter of Rights -Parliamentary Reform-
the changes needed to bring our country to a state of complete interactive democracy, for the people, by the people

http://canadianactionparty.ca/temp/policies/index.asp

[u4ic]

146. the Marijuana Party!

:rofl:

[applegrove]

128. Go see the Fraser Institute plans introduced last April by Mike Harris

& Preston Manning!

http://www.fraserinstitute.ca/shared/readmore.asp?sNav=nr&id=653

Then count the euphemisms. This was brought forth when the neocons in the USA were still cocky and thought they had a lock-hold on the public.

[0rganism]

129. Could they be restrained by a Liberal-NDP-BQ coalition?

Seems to me, the advantage of a multi-party system is the opportunity for an opposing coalition to outflank the bigger party.

[Minstrel Boy]

130. It's to the Bloc's strategic advantage to support the

Conservatives. Harper's promising to concede powers to Quebec, and the Bloc doesn't give a damn what happens elsewhere. And there are many Conservatives who would be overjoyed to see Quebec leave Canada.

[0rganism]

138. Still, I don't see them supporting military adventurism

If the Tories are relying on BQ to uphold a governing majority, that's hardly a blank check.

[lonestarnot]

133. WTF! Haven't they learned anything from watching what has happened here?

[Thtwudbeme]

135. It's NADER'S FAULT! Damn you Green bastards!

</insert NDP for Greens>

[Minstrel Boy]

142. Nader didn't have a tenth of the support

in 2000 that the NDP does, even when it's struggling.

I prefer a democracy with more than one and a half choices.

[oneoftheboys]

136. They are using the culture of corruption against the liberals...

It's only a matter of time before the headlines in the US read "Democrats surge ahead of Republicans in mid-terms."

[Joey Liberal]

141. Canadians cannot be that crazy n.t

[Canuck55]

145. Harper has the eyes of a weasel.

Just looks like he would have no problem slipping a toonie into his pocket from a church collection plate.