STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 17 January

[ozymandius]

Tuesday January 17, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 3 YEARS, 5 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1853 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1553 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1514
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 13, 2006

Dow... 10,959.87 -2.49 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq... 2,317.04 +0.35 (+0.02%)
S&P 500... 1,287.61 +1.55 (+0.12%)
30-Year Bond 4.53% -0.07 (-1.44%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.35% -0.06 (-1.36%)
Gold future... 557.00 +7.70 (+1.38%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
A Partial Resolution

The year 2005 will be remembered for many things. For one, it will be remembered as a year that twisted, stretched and broke many statistical relationships and historical norms on both the bullish and the bearish sides of the equation. For example, a bullish statistic that has held true since 1896 was broken. That statistic showed that since the inception of the Industrials, every year ending in a 5 had been an up year. That was until 2005, which broke that record as the Industrials did finish the year marginally negative. Also, a bearish relationship that ultimately proved to be invalid came with the break into the April lows as both averages confirmed each other by breaking below their January Secondary lows. This put both averages in gear to the downside, yet this break was later corrected and the averages moved higher. I could go on and on with more examples, but the point is that 2005 was marked by both failed bullish advances as well as failed bearish breaks, and in the process, many of the historical relationships and norms were either out right violated or stretched.

Thus far, 2006 has come in with a bang. In the process the Dow theory Secondary non-confirmation has been corrected. This non-confirmation came to be in November when the Transports bettered their March highs without the Industrials following suit. The January advance has now corrected this Secondary non-confirmation and can be seen in the chart below. Therefore, with both averages now above their previous Secondary highs, according to Dow theory, the Industrials are now clear to retest their old highs.

-cut-

We have been following the Retailers for several months now and I want to look at them here again. Understand that the Retailers have nothing to do with Dow theory, but that this relationship has historically been significant. You will find in the chart below that when the Retailers are not in gear with the Industrials, it has typically spelled trouble. At present, the Retailers have not bettered their previous Secondary high point, which occurred back in November. This is illustrated by the last blue line on the right of the chart below. The Industrials made their last important recovery high in March, while the Retailers made theirs in July. Notice that the Retailers have not bettered that high, but again the Industrials have cleared the hurdle. Also notice that each of the non-confirmations, as is marked in blue, have historically resulted in market corrections of intermediate degree. The fact that the Industrials and the Retailers are currently not in gear is indeed a warning to the market. So, the thing that we need to watch for now is to see if the non-confirmation between these two averages can be corrected before the intermediate-term cycle top is made. If so, great, and the advance into the 4-year cycle top will be set to press even higher. But if not, then perhaps this too was just another false break and the resulting non-confirmation could be the one that leads the market into the Phase II lows.



more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

Jan 17 8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Jan
Briefing Forecast 22.0
Market Expects 22.0
Prior 28.7

Jan 17 9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Dec
Briefing Forecast 80.7%
Market Expects 80.5%
Prior 80.2%

Jan 17 9:15 AM Industrial Production Dec
Briefing Forecast 0.7%
Market Expects 0.6%
Prior 0.7%

[UpInArms]

20. U.S. Jan. Empire State index slips to 20.1 vs rev 26.3 Dec

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38734.3544503125-857481772&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area expanded at a slower pace in January, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Tuesday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 20.1 in January from a revised 26.3 in December. The decline was roughly in line with expectations. Economists were expecting the index to slip to 21.0 from the initial estimate last month of 28.7. Despite the decline, new orders held steady in January. The prices paid index also held steady. Shipments rose to their highest level in a year, while inventories dropped sharply. Employment indexes were above December levels.

8:30am 01/17/06 U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 46.6 VS 46.7 IN DEC

8:30am 01/17/06 U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS INDEX 27.2, SAME AS DEC.

8:30am 01/17/06 U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX 11.3 VS 5.0 IN DEC.

8:30am 01/17/06 U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE INDEX SLIGHTLY BELOW CONSENSUS 21.0

8:30am 01/17/06 U.S. JAN. EMPIRE STATE INDEX 20.1 VS REV 26.3 IN DEC.

[UpInArms]

22. N.Y. Fed manufacturing index falls in January

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-17T133042Z_01_N17316091_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-NYFED-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Growth at New York State factories slowed in January with a drop in inventories, the New York Federal Reserve said on Tuesday.

The N.Y. Fed's "Empire State" index showed overall conditions for manufacturers eased to 20.12 from a downwardly revised 26.28 in December.

The median forecast in a Reuters survey of economists was 22.00.

The survey's index on inventories fell to -12.33 in January from -4.44 in December.

[UpInArms]

26. Capacity Utilization @ 80.7% - Manufacturing Output @ 0.2%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38734.3857437384-857485954&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. industrial output increased 0.6% in December while capacity utilization soared to 80.7%, the highest since October 2000, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. For all of 2005, industrial production increased 3.2%. The increase in capacity utilization could raise red flags at the Federal Open Market Committee, which warned in December that decreasing slack in the economy could fuel inflationary pressures. Output was boosted in December by big seasonally adjusted gains in mining, utilities and high-technology. In December, manufacturing output increased 0.2%, held back by a 2.8% decline in production of motor vehicles and parts.


9:15am 01/17/06 U.S. DEC. HIGH-TECH PRODUCTION RISES 2.7%

9:15am 01/17/06 U.S. DEC. MOTOR VEHICLE OUTPUT FALLS 2.8%

9:15am 01/17/06 U.S. DEC. MINING OUTPUT RISES 2.5%

9:15am 01/17/06 U.S. DEC. MANUFACTURING OUTPUT RISES 0.2%

9:15am 01/17/06 U.S. 2005 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 3.2%

9:15am 01/17/06 U.S. DEC. CAPACITY UTILIZATION RISES TO 80.7%, 5-YEAR HIGH

9:15am 01/17/06 U.S. DEC. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES 0.6% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

[ozymandius]

3. Oil Prices Jump Past $65 on Iran Worries

VIENNA, Austria - Crude-oil prices spiked past $65 a barrel Tuesday as
Iran's nuclear ambitions and an attack on an oil platform in Nigeria kept traders edgy over potential supply snags.

Natural gas and heating oil also rose despite plentiful supplies and warm weather in the United States, the world's largest energy market.

-cut-

Analysts said energy futures jumped on concerns that the U.N. Security Council will consider sanctions against Iran because of its nuclear program, and after Iran's warning that any sanctions imposed could send oil prices even higher.

"The Iranian nuclear issue is driving the market. Traders are short-covering because they know if something happens in Iran the market would be in confusion," said Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo. "The issue poses a threat of supply disruption in a major oil-producing country."

more...

[UpInArms]

36. Feb Crude @ $65.25 bbl - Feb NatGas @ $9.10 mln btus

10:06am 01/17/06 FEB CRUDE UP $1.33 AT $65.25/BRL AFTER 3-MO HIGH OF $65.30

10:07am 01/17/06 FEB NATURAL GAS RISES 31.9C, OR 3.6%, TO $9.10/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

62. Feb Crude above $66 bbl - 1st time since October

2:17pm 01/17/06 FEB CRUDE CLIMBS ABOVE $66/BRL FOR 1ST TIME SINCE OCT

2:14pm 01/17/06 FEB CRUDE TRADES AT SESSION HIGH, UP $1.98 AT $65.90/BRL

[EuroObserver]

64. Worse than feared this morning (in Europe)

Hang onto your oil-related positions...

[UpInArms]

67. Feb NatGas closes @ $9.168 mln btus - Feb Htg Oil @ $1.7915 gal

2:55pm 01/17/06 FEB NATURAL GAS UP 4.3% TO CLOSE AT $9.168/MLN BTUS

2:55pm 01/17/06 FEB HEATING OIL ENDS AT $1.7915/GAL, UP 4.5%

[UpInArms]

68. Feb Crude closes @ $66.31 bbl

2:59pm 01/17/06 FEB CRUDE UP 3.7% TO END AT OVER 3-MO HIGH OF $66.31/BRL

[EuroObserver]

4. Japanese markets plunged on further scandal, general nervousness

Yen falling.

Out of an almost all-red Nikkei 225, among the very few gainers were KIRIN BREWERY CO LTD at Y1405 up +4.15% and KYOWA HAKKO KOGYO CO LTD at Y898 up +3.46%. KIKKOMAN CORPORATION at Y1139 was up +1.33%

Overall, the N255 was down 2.84% on tuesday down 462.08 points at 15,805.95.

Some reports:

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060117/3/2e5m1.html
TOKYO (Reuters) - The Nikkei share average posted its biggest percentage loss in nine months on Tuesday, falling 2.84 percent as sharp selling of small-cap stocks, spurred by news portal operator Livedoor Co. was being investigated, spread across the market.

The selling hit Livedoor's rivals, including Softbank Corp. , which like Livedoor has pursued a strategy of mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Softbank temporarily fell by its daily limit while web portal Yahoo Japan Corp. also tumbled.

"Most of the stocks on the Mothers market fell ... selling fed itself and we saw some panic selling," said Hiroaki Kuramochi, managing director at Bear Stearns (Japan) Ltd.

Tsutomu Yamada, market strategist at kabu.com Securities, said the sell-off in small-cap markets raised concerns that retail investors, who recently have been key in driving up share prices, may shy away from the overall market.

/more...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060117/ap/d8f6a5bo0.html
Other losers included Honda Motor Co., whose share price fell 0.15 percent to 6,310 yen ($54.81); Toyota Motor Corp., down 0.51 percent to 5,850 yen; and Kyocera, maker of ceramics packages used in computer chips, down 2.76 percent to 9,140 ($79.40).

Share prices for electronics manufacturers were also caught up in the market drop. Matsushita Electric Industrial lost 3.19 percent to 2,425 yen ($21.06); Sony fell 2.38 percent to 4,910 yen ($42.66); and Sharp Corp. was down 2.39 percent to 2,040 yen ($17.72).

The broader Topix index of all shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange's first section also fell sharply, losing 38.54 points, or 2.31 percent, to 1,631.61 points Tuesday.

/more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh11471_2006-01-17_07-47-50_t166703_newsml
TOKYO, Jan 17 (Reuters) - Japanese consumers grew more confident in December than at any time in nearly 15 years, data showed on Tuesday, adding weight to the view that the economy is on a recovery track.

The Cabinet Office's sentiment index for ordinary households, which includes views on income and job conditions, was at 48.2 in December, up 3.4 points from September, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

It was the highest since June 1991, when the index stood at 48.7.

The government provides adjusted figures only quarterly.

The Cabinet Office revised its view on consumer sentiment upward, saying that sentiment was improving. It had previously said sentiment was somewhat weak.

/more...

[UpInArms]

11. Japan's iconic hi-tech firm raided over market-rigging allegations

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,13133-1988605,00.html

THE offices of Livedoor, the online media empire run by Japan’s most controversial entrepreneur, were raided last night as part of an investigation into alleged market-rigging.

The inquiry could destroy the reputation of Takafumi Horie, Livedoor’s president and founder, a Tokyo University drop-out, consummate trend-spotter and self-professed super-geek.

Any threat to Mr Horie’s command over Livedoor could also spell disaster for the company, a high-tech icon that has pioneered the Japanese internet industry and lit a fire under the country’s conservative business elite.

Livedoor has achieved stunning growth from its financial services and online stock-trading operations. Investors worry that both could suffer heavily from any whiff of market-related impropriety.

If Mr Horie is prosecuted successfully for market-rigging violations of the securities and exchange law, the 33-year-old known internationally by the nickname “Horiemon” could face five years in prison.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

15. FT: The Nikkei 225 fell at its fastest pace since April...

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/49fdf434-870e-11da-8521-0000779e2340.html
Livedoor, the fast-growing internet services group, was untraded with sell orders at Y596, down 14.4 per cent on Monday’s close, after prosecutors raided its offices to investigate possible violations of securities laws.

Softbank, the services company with strong internet interests, plunged 11.1 per cent to Y3,840. Yahoo Japan slumped 8.4 per cent to Y164,000. Fuji Television, which has a large stake in Livedoor, declined 9 per cent to Y292,000.

But domestic stocks in general suffered sharply. Real estate plunged 4.7 per cent, with retailers down 4.5 per cent, securities down 4.2 per cent and construction down 3.1 per cent.

Obayashi, one of Japan’s biggest construction companies, fell 4.5 per cent to Y894.

Mitsui Fudosan, Japan’s biggest real estate company, slipped 3.5 per cent to Y2,230. Mitsubishi Estate, its biggest rival, was down 4.1 per cent to Y2,225.

The banks, which have risen less than most other domestic sectors in recent months, suffered much less share price damage. Mitsubishi UFJ, the world’s biggest bank by assets, was down 0.7 per cent to Y1,520,000. Mizuho, Japan’s second biggest banking group, was down 0.8 per cent to Y885,000.

/more...

[AnneD]

31. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: One thing I really like about Japanese management style and what our CEO's should adopt here is that Japanese CEO's commit speku (suicide) when they dishonour the company. I'd be a willing 2nd for some of these pudknockers.
Well, it took forever to get my IRA rolled over to buy back time in the Teachers Retirement but I think I got it done. Talk about foot dragging, not returning calls, etc. It took a full week. I was very unhappy with the way I was treated. I feel better that I have it done now rather than later. It will be tough in panic situation to get anything done. I am willing to 'lose' any potential gain this year in the market (cause I'm not optimistic).
It has been in the news this weekend about the increased gas bills. One little old lady's bill went from $50 to $150 in a month. She said she didn't use it and of course Center Point Energy did the spin. Of course they misread the meter but the interesting thing is that they said they have had so many calls that there is a long wait to get an operator. Makes me wanna say 'So how's this Bush economy working for ya'.
Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[EuroObserver]

39. It's difficult to get your timing right

when there's so much delay, obfuscation, misinformation and downright corruption built into these generally irresponsible markets.

Japan seems to be scrambling to try to clean up its act, though.

Watch out for the rats.

[AnneD]

42. The IRA's just are not nimble enough for me.

I am lucky that I have done well overall. I had been trying to get the broker moving since the last week in Dec. They were on vacation and no one else could do it, then got paperwork to them and they still weren't sure how to do it. More unreturned phone calls. I finally started throwing a hissy and told them they could do this Fri...Tues not acceptable due to THEIR foot dragging.

I wonder about Japan. Most of their problems seemed to be old loans held on the books that should have defaulted. It seemed as if their banking system should have been overhauled. I have not heard much about THAT aspect. You are right about one thing....there are rats throughout the system, ready to nibble away at your account.

[EuroObserver]

5. European stocks fall as oil price rise hits autos

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh15371_2006-01-17_10-38-02_l17576260_newsml
LONDON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - European shares fell to a 10-day low on Tuesday, trailing a 2.8 percent drop in Japan's Nikkei , as investors worried that rising oil prices could dent corporate earnings and economic growth.

Auto stocks and airlines were hit as crude oil prices topped $65 a barrel.

"The rise in oil prices coupled with commodity prices at all-time highs is hitting markets," said a trader. "People are cautious ahead of the big U.S. results."

By 1020 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares was down 0.7 percent at 1,297.43, retreating from its recent 4-1/2 year highs. Wall Street was shut on Monday for Martin Luther King day after closing flat on Friday.

The European index reached its lowest level since Jan. 6.

/more...

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh10391_2006-01-17_06-54-00_ire724947_newsml
European stocks - Factors to watch on Jan 17

[EuroObserver]

54. Frankfurt, Paris, London Closing

(Close): German stocks fell in Tuesday trading as the price of crude oil rose, raising concerns that raw material costs may hit company profit growth. Frankfurt's benchmark Dax index ended the day down 54 points to 5,460.16.

(Close): French shares fell in Friday trading, tracking declines in most of Europe's main stock markets. The benchmark Paris Cac 40 index ended the day down 49 points to 4,807.

(Close): The leading index of London shares ended down on Tuesday, dragged lower by a lukewarm reaction to Tesco's Christmas trading figures. The FTSE 100 ended the day down 41.2 points to 5,699, also hit by a rise in global oil prices.

http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/fds/hi/business/market_data/overview/default.stm

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 89.41 Change +0.28 (+0.31%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: U.S. Productivity To Stick, Power To The Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/6095_tomorrows_economic_releases_us_productivity_to_stick_power.html

U.S. Empire Manufacturing Index (DEC) (13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST)
Consensus: 22.0
Previous: 28.7

Outlook: The Empire Manufacturing Index is expected to report 22.0 for the month, moderating from the 17-month high of 28.7 in December. The number would still be higher than the 15.6 average in 2005, with readings above zero indicating growth in the industry. Each month, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York sends out a survey to 200 manufacturing executives in the area, and is just one of the many tools that economists use to determine the health of the manufacturing sector. With rebuilding of the Gulf Coast region continuing to boost production capacity, it seems very likely that the Index will continue its growth pattern that has held solid for the last two and a half years. The report comes in just shortly before industrial production data, and both economic indicators are certain to weigh heavily on the shoulders of the Federal Reserve before their meeting later this month.

Previous: The Empire manufacturing index rose unexpectedly to 28.7 in December, surging from the November reading of 22.8. The Index figure was a 17-month high and indicates expansion within the manufacturing industry. The new orders index rose slightly to 30.2, sending a message to economists that businesses are continuing to ramp up spending in the midst of a Gulf Coast recovery. Comparatively, the index of inventories was negative in December, implying that the demand for goods is accelerating and manufacturers will likely increase their current output. Future indexes representing forward-looking sentiment in the next six-months, were also on the rise in December – another sign of strength in the industry. Subsequently, expectations point out that the bullishness in manufacturing could potentially lead to future inflation risks, as it is tied very closely to business spending. This may leave the Federal Reserve with the difficult task of weighing the possible scenarios should the streak continue.

US Industrial Production (DEC) (14:15 GMT, 9:15 EST)
Consensus: 0.6%
Previous: 0.7%

Outlook: Industrial production is expected to have risen 0.6% in December, just marginally lower than the 0.7% increase last month. The production lines at factories, mines, and utilities have been running at full capacity lately, making an active effort to keep pace with increased business orders and depleting inventories. If expectations for the month are met, the average production gain of 0.8% from October to December would mark the best quarterly performance since 1999. This scenario seems quite plausible given the most recent manufacturing reports that came in bullish. The Empire Manufacturing Index rose to a 17-month high of 28.7 and the Philly Fed Index printed 10.9 last month, with readings above zero indicating expansion in the industry. Furthermore, the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita has caused reconstruction along the Gulf Coast to boom, lending further support to the increase in production. The Federal Reserve will be watching the data with a keen eye, as capacity utilization most likely rose to 80.5% - the highest level since November of 2000. Rising output is reducing the amount of unused capacity, and any type of constraints often lead to a pickup in inflation. A bullish report would come on the tail of weaker consumer spending data in the US, throwing a wrench in the underlying theory that the Fed’s interest rate cycle may have finally come to an end.

Previous: Industrial production rose 0.7% in November, posting a back-to-back monthly gain that was the highest recorded in nearly eight-years. The recent surge in production is a direct result of rebuilding and replenishing – efforts made by businesses who were tragically affected during the hurricane season last summer. Capacity Utilization held strong at 79.4%, a level matching the five-year high and closely approaching the historically significant 81% level. Bottlenecks tend to develop when less production capacity is available, and this poses a significant inflation threat to the Federal Reserve. Data from the manufacturing industry will be critical in the coming months as policy makers ponder how much further they must go with their tightening efforts.

[UpInArms]

9. The Turn in the Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/6060_the_turn_in_the.html

Although smaller than anticipated November’s -$64 Billion Trade Balance shortfall is nothing to celebrate. At that pace US is headed for nearly three quarter of a trillion dollar trade deficit in 2006. To paraphrase the late Senator Dirksen a trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money. After the initial knee jerk reaction lower on Thursday, the EUR/USD promptly regained its losses as currency traders considered the bleak implications for the buck. Retail Sales, also printed below consensus (0.7% vs. 0.9% projected) suggesting that the once mighty US consumers may be finally tiring of carrying the global consumption burden all by themselves.

As we wrote on Friday, ”Amidst much Central Bank speak yesterday, we think one comment was lost in the noise. Chicago Fed’s Moskow stated that Fed funds are now at a neutral rate. This was the first clear signal from any US monetary officials that the tightening cycle may indeed be coming to a close. Mr. Moskow did state that rates need to go higher to fight inflation, but these words were simply there to give him cover. …Therefore it appears that the Fed will now become far more sensitive to monthly economic numbers before considering additional hikes after the expected 25bp rise on January 31st. Overall, the action suggests that the 1.2000 level in the EUR/USD may be near term support, unless US growth suddenly picks up allowing Fed to go to 5% money. “

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Dollar higher early Tuesday ahead of TICS data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38734.3241025926-857478467&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar was higher against the yen and euro early Tuesday, ahead of the Wednesday release of monthly Treasury International Capital System data on long-term securities transactions. The dollar last was 0.8% higher at 115.15 yen as the euro fell 0.03% to $1.2088. The TICS data will be closely scrutinized for indications as to whether foreign demand for U.S. assets remains strong. If foreign demand proves weak, the dollar should come under pressure, according to Boris Schlossberg, a currency analyst at Forex Capital Markets.

[EuroObserver]

18. Observing increasing volatility all round.

FT: Efforts to put Iran before UN gather pace
China and Russia express caution

[54anickel]

45. China's Foreign Currency Reserves Grow

China's Foreign Currency Reserves Grow to $818.9 Billion, Up 34 Percent From a Year Ago :wow:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060116/china_foreign_reserves.html?.v=3

snip>

The central bank said reserves rose by $208.9 billion from the end of 2004, news reports said. At that rate, China's reserves could reach $1 trillion this year, surpassing Japan's, which stand at $846.9 billion as the world's biggest.

"Record FX (foreign exchange) reserves and a widening trade surplus in 2005 all provide arguments for other countries to keep the pressure on China to let the CNY (the yuan) appreciate further," the Bank of America said Monday in a report.

China's foreign reserves have soared as China's surging exports, especially to the United States, have brought home billions of U.S. dollars and other foreign currencies. Last week, the government said China's 2005 trade surplus reached $101.9 billion, up from $32 billion the previous year.

China's foreign currency regulator buys dollars and other foreign currencies and stockpiles them in U.S. Treasury bonds and other assets in order to limit the flow of currency into the economy, which it worries could set off inflation.

Analysts estimate that three-quarters of China's reserves are in Treasuries, reflecting the dominance of the dollar in its trade.

more...

[54anickel]

48. Greenspan's INFLATION-WEDGIE (from May 2005)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/wallenwein053005.html

snip>

All in all, it's a fitting metaphor of where US monetary policy in general, and the dollar in particular, are headed.

Down the toilet.

Here is the actual quote and some additional ones that put the first one in context with that portion of the minutes:

"A discernable upcreep was apparent in survey measures of short- and, to a limited extent, long-term inflation expectations over recent months ... However, available indicators of wages and benefits had registered only modest growth, suggesting to many that some slack in labor markets persisted (blah, blah, blah) ... Along with energy prices, import and materials prices apparently had contributed to the recent uptick in inflation, and pressures on inflation stemming from these three sources were expected to lessen over coming quarters ... (blah, blah) ... On balance, measures of core inflation were thought likely to remain in check over the remainder of this year and next." (Yeah, right.)

Here's what was really going through their minds when they drafted this mumbo-jumbo:

"We know exactly what's going down, but we don't want to tell you because you'll just want to protect yourselves (i.e., stop spending and start saving for the extremely rainy day that's coming) and spoil the party for the rest of us up here at the levers of power. After all, we've got our careers and legacies to worry about, don't you see? So, just eat our dust and shut up already."

snip>

And the fact that the vastly overstretched US consumer has to perform the work of Atlas carrying the world on his shoulders isn't very reassuring, either. His savings are in stocks and bonds or are tied up in pension funds. These pension funds, of course, can only stay solvent via a multi-decade boom in US stocks (which Bush is trying to engineer via his social security "reform") - or if the money the gov't will need to pay out in the future is either borrowed or flat-out printed on demand.

Recognizing that, the Fed has figured that doing either printing or borrowing alone would be too obvious to us plebs, so they craftily figured out that they can pretend to borrow and then pretend to pay for it.

How does that work?

more...

[UpInArms]

75. China making progress on yuan-China's envoy to US

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-17T200713Z_01_NYA000174_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CHINA-USA-URGENT.XML

CHICAGO, Jan 17 (Reuters) - China is making steady progress toward a more flexible currency, but needs more time, Zhou Wenzhong, China's ambassador to the United States, said on Tuesday.

"Down the road, eventually, the Chinese currency will be freely floating and subject to market forces", he said. "We are working on that, making steady progress toward that goal, but I think you understand it can't happen overnight even though some members of Congress would want that."

Zhou was answering questions from the audience after delivering a speech about "The future of the China-U.S. relationship" at the Chicago Council on Foreign Relations.

"The best thing is, let's try to work to reduce the (U.S.) trade deficit by increasing U.S. exports to China and agree to give us more time to resolve the exchange rate issue."

[UpInArms]

7. Greenspan set to earn six figures for giving speeches

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/50b39946-85e7-11da-bee0-0000779e2340.html

Alan Greenspan is set to join the elite group of luminaries who command a six-figure fee for an after-dinner speech when he steps down as chairman of the US Federal Reserve at the end of this month.

With requests for speaking engagements piling up at the Fed, Mr Greenspan is expected to become a star client of the Washington Speakers Bureau, according to sources in the US event management industry.

WSB is among the most prestigious of the handful of firms that arrange appearances for well-known figures and counts among its clients Colin Powell, the former US secretary of state, and John Cleese, the British comic actor.

Mr Greenspan is likely to become one of the most sought-after speakers in the world on his retirement, joining such big name draws as Bill Clinton, the former US president, and Jack Welch, former chief executive of General Electric.

...more...

[AnneD]

43. Is it going to be like.....

a Gallagher show where the first 3 rows need to bring plastic sheeting or umbrellas. :puke: :spray:

[UpInArms]

8. BOJ to review outlook, set stage for policy shift

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-01-16T054900Z_01_T321787_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-JAPAN-BOJ.XML

TOKYO, Jan 16 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan will weigh this week whether the economy is recovering more strongly than it previously expected as financial markets stay on tenterhooks for hints on when the central bank will shift policy.

Speculation is rife the BOJ will abandon its ultra-easy monetary policy as early as April. Such views could be bolstered if the board, in a policy meeting on Thursday and Friday, sound more upbeat in a mid-term review of its semi-annual outlook on prices and the economy.

Recent data has suggested that economic growth will exceed the nine-member board's median forecast three months ago of 2.2 percent in the fiscal year to March and 1.8 percent in the year from April.

<snip>

The policy was introduced in 2001 as a slide in consumer prices threatened to destabilise the economy and the banking system. However, now that the economy is shaking off seven years of deflation, BOJ officials argue that policy should return to a more conventional one of steering interest rates.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. Tougher executive pay disclosure rules seen

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B3AFDC0C8%2DD621%2D474C%2D9667%2D1C8534DFFE01%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - In one of the first major moves under its new chairman, the Securities and Exchange Commission this week will propose a series of sweeping rules on executive compensation to improve and simplify disclosure about how top executives are paid and what perks they enjoy.

<snip>

Purcell isn't the only corporate chieftain who's lately enjoyed a fat paycheck. Median total CEO pay at the 2,000 largest U.S. corporations rose 30% in fiscal 2004, with the average increasing 91%, according to a survey by the Corporate Library, a watchdog group.

By comparison, government data show weekly earnings of American workers rose only an average of 2.2% in 2004. When adjusted for inflation, earnings fell 0.4%.

<snip>

The commission has been working on the executive pay disclosure rules at least since the term of the prior chairman, William Donaldson. Tuesday's scheduled pay vote will be one of the first major commission votes under the leadership of Cox, a former California congressman and securities attorney.

...more...

[UpInArms]

46. SEC unanimously approves executive compensation proposal

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38734.5069445023-857502783&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday approved a proposal to require companies to disclose more information about executive pay. The proposals include requiring firms to show total compensation, stock options expressed in dollar-value terms and value of pension plans. All five commissioners backed the rules. The SEC will take a final vote after a public comment period.

12:09pm 01/17/06 SEC PROPOSAL FORCES COMPANIES TO USE SAME OPTION VALUE MODEL

12:09pm 01/17/06 SEC PROPOSES COMPANIES DISCLOSE TOTAL OFFICER PAY, OPTIONS

12:09pm 01/17/06 SEC UNANIMOUSLY APPROVES EXECUTIVE PAY PROPOSAL

[AnneD]

78. I must say...

I was not too happy with the appointment of Cox as SEC head because I thought he was too pro biz, but I think this proposal is way overdue and will go a long way to gage the sound practices of a company.

[UpInArms]

12. National City quarterly profit falls 59 percent

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-17T113144Z_01_N17174454_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-NATIONALCITY-EARNS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - National City Corp. (NCC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the No. 8 U.S. bank, on Tuesday said fourth-quarter profit fell 59 percent, hurt by an increase in consumer loan losses associated with tougher U.S. bankruptcy laws.

Net income for the Cleveland-based company fell to $398 million, or 64 cents per share, from $960 million, or $1.46 a share, a year earlier, when it took an after-tax gain of $477 million, or 74 cents per share, for an asset sale.

Results in the latest quarter included $75 million, or 12 cents per share, of after-tax charges, the bank said. Nearly half were for severance and other expenses in a multiyear program designed to increase revenue, improve performance and cut costs. The rest stemmed from auto loans and a charitable donation.

National City said it set aside $132 million for loan losses, up 63 percent. This reflected higher commercial and consumer net charge-offs, and $20 million set aside for consumer bankruptcy losses that have not yet been realized. Total net charge-offs rose 33 percent to $138 million.

Bankruptcy filings surged in the weeks leading up to Oct. 17, when new laws made filings more difficult and costly.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Mervyns closing 20 stores in 3 states

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/01/17/BUGFUGO98N1.DTL

Mervyns is pulling out of Oregon and Washington state, shuttering 20 stores altogether in a second round of closures in six months for the troubled Hayward retail chain.

The move will force 1,400 full- and part-time employees out of their jobs, including about 483 in Oregon, 880 in Washington, and 53 at its store in Salt Lake City, which is also being closed. Each of the stores will be phased out by February 2007.

The privately owned chain, which has struggled to keep up with competitors like Target and J.C. Penney, said its stores in Washington and Oregon have not been meeting overall performance expectations.

"These markets contain predominantly low-volume stores with relatively high operating costs, which negatively impact Mervyns' overall profitability," the company said in a statement.

In September, Mervyns announced that it would shut 62 of its underperforming stores, resulting in the loss of 4,800 full-time and part-time jobs. The company closed its stores in Michigan and Oklahoma and reduced its presence in Colorado, Louisiana and Texas. It also closed distribution centers in Plano, Texas, and West Valley, Utah.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Slower retail sales forecast - Energy cost, job fears likely to cut spendi

Energy cost, job fears likely to cut spending

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0601170172jan17,1,395196.story?coll=chi-business-hed

NEW YORK -- Retail sales are projected to increase 4.7 percent this year, down from 6.1 percent in 2005, as higher energy prices, a still-shaky labor market and a slowdown in the housing market dampen spending, the National Retail Federation said Monday.

In an address to retailers on the second day of the industry's four-day annual convention, federation Chief Executive Tracy Mullin said merchants face "myriad challenges" as home equity refinancing slows and consumers struggle to find new sources of spending power.

The association also noted that the retail industry needs solid employment growth in 2006 to sustain healthy wage and salary growth, key factors in consumer spending.

The group said that in the first quarter total retail sales should increase 5 percent from a year earlier, less than the 6.5 percent gain achieved in the fourth quarter of 2005. Total retail sales exclude business from auto dealers, gas stations and restaurants.

Shoppers will likely cut purchases of clothing and some non-essential items as they face higher heating bills early in the year. Rising mortgage payments and a slowing housing market could curb spending after consumers remained relatively undaunted by surging gasoline prices last year.

"With the housing market beginning to slow, consumers will be challenged to find new sources of spending power," said Rosalind Wells, the federation's chief economist. "The strong retail sales we saw in the second half of 2005 will be replaced by more conservative spending in the new year."

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. Housing market may crimp retail

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/13641069.htm

NEW YORK - Rising energy costs, coupled with a slowdown in the housing boom that has fueled South Florida's economy and other markets across the country, is likely to put a crimp in retail spending in 2006.

That was the outlook presented Monday at the National Retail Federation's annual convention. The normally optimistic group is tempering its forecast this year, calling for a 4.7 percent growth in 2006 retail sales down from a 6.1 percent gain in 2005. Real consumer spending, which rose 3.7 percent last year, will increase only 2.8 percent this year.

''While we don't expect the housing bubble to burst, we are beginning to see some leaks,'' said Tracy Mullin, president of the National Retail Federation.

As home prices have skyrocketed in South Florida and around the country, consumers in recent years have been cashing out. They have turned to a combination of home equity loans, mortgage refinancing and capital gains from home sales as a way to fund both home improvements and other spending.

''As interest rates go up, people are going to find it more loathe to take out home equity lines of credit,'' said Rosalind Wells, chief economist for the National Retail Federation. ``Consumers are not going to feel as anxious to tap into their home values.''

<snip>

Freddie Mac estimates that about $205 billion was extracted from home values in 2005, up from $142 billion in 2004. A study by Federal Reserve economists found that money from home values added about $700 billion to economic activity last year, which translates into as much as 8 percent of total consumer spending.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Alcoa phasing out traditional pensions

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE86E3187-0E2E-4D3C-BA07-22EDDDF9AB52%7D&siteid=google

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - In another sign of how rare defined benefit pensions are becoming among the nation's blue chip employers, Alcoa said Monday most salaried workers joining its ranks after March 1 will be offered a 401(k) retirement plan.

The move aims to limit long-term liabilities faced by Alcoa (AA) as pensions costs and the number of retirees swell. At the same time, the company said the changes would have no immediate impact on its profitability.

The giant Pittsburgh-based aluminum producer said defined benefit pension plans, which provide guaranteed income using company-managed funds, will remain intact for current Alcoa employees, retirees, and union workers.

<snip>

Alcoa said the move followed a review of the marketplace in which it found nearly 65 percent of employers' pension packages rest primarily on 401(k) plans.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. US stock futures fall;oil's jump overtakes earnings

http://today.reuters.com/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-01-17T130501Z_01_N17339449_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-STOCKS-UPDATE-1-.XML

NEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stock futures fell sharply on Tuesday, indicating Wall Street would follow global markets lower, as crude prices at 3 1/2-month highs above $65 a barrel and brokerage downgrades of companies, including Advanced Micro Devices Inc. <AMD.N>, took the investor focus away from corporate earnings.

The stock of Advanced Micro Devices Inc. fell 4.8 percent to $32.50 on the Inet electronic brokerage system before the bell after a MarketWatch report said Merrill Lynch cut its rating on the stock to "sell" from "neutral."

U.S. crude for February delivery <CLV4> jumped as high as $65.53 a barrel in electronic trading after militants said they would broaden attacks on Nigeria's oil industry. The escalating threats against Nigeria's oil industry could disrupt supplies from the world's eighth-biggest exporter.

Standard & Poor's 500 index futures <SPH6> were down 5.20 points, below fair value, a mathematical formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract.

Nasdaq 100 index futures <NDH6> were down 12.50 points, and Dow Jones industrial average futures <DJH6> were down 57 points.

The surge in oil prices related to Nigeria's situation and tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions are "going to be the theme of the day, even though earnings season is getting under way," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst and chief strategist at SW Bach & Co.

...more...

[UpInArms]

21. Gold sets fresh 25-year high

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE221D419%2D9758%2D4C28%2D93ED%2D4385C928813C%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures set a fresh 25-year high in early electronic trading Tuesday before pulling back slightly, supported by increasing tension surrounding Iran's nuclear program and by attacks on Nigerian oil installations.

Gold for February delivery was last trading down $2.10 at $554.90 an ounce, having earlier touched a high of $565.50, its best level since 1981.

"Firm oil and energy prices and related geopolitical tensions (ongoing concerns about Iran's pursuit of nuclear power development) should ensure that the price of gold remains underpinned," said economists at Action Economics.

"News last week that South African gold output fell 11.3% in volume terms in November illustrates the constrained supply side of the equation too."

<snip>

At Orion Securities, analyst George Albino said gold's recent gains are also related to depreciation of a range of currencies relative to commodities and other "things" -- "in other words, a reflection of inflationary pressures (inflationary in the money stock sense, not the CPI sense)," he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Feb Gold @ $555.40 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38734.4158030671-857490137&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- February gold fell $1.60 to $555.40 an ounce in morning trading, easing back from a 25-year high of $565.50 in the overnight session. "There's certainly no cause for alarm," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. "The markets are overbought and a pullback from these levels is absolutely necessary in order for the trends to continue their upward paths."

[UpInArms]

41. Feb Gold @ $558.80 oz

10:53am 01/17/06 FEB GOLD TAPS $560/OZ IN NY AFTER $552.50 LOW

10:53am 01/17/06 FEB GOLD LAST UP $1.80 AT $558.80/OZ

[UpInArms]

61. Feb Gold closes @ $554.30 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38734.5785060185-857513042&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures closed lower Tuesday, but not before setting a fresh 25-year high above $561 an ounce. February gold rose as high as $561.50 an ounce in New York, a fresh 25-year high, but closed at $554.30, down $2.70 for the session. March silver closed at $9.073 an ounce, down 9.2 cents. April platinum added $5.50 to close at $1,049.10 an ounce after trading at a 26-year high of $1,049.50.

[54anickel]

69. Gold's going much higher; thank China (Fleckenstein)

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P139885.asp

snip>

In fact, a recent Financial Times story titled "China Signals Reserves Switch Away From Dollar" contained the following quote from the Web site of SAFE, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, about one of the agency's goals for 2006:

"Improve the operation and management of foreign-exchange reserves and to actively explore more effective ways to utilize reserve assets. . . . to improve the currency structure and asset structure of our foreign-exchange reserves, and to continue to expand the investment area of reserves. We want to ensure that the use of foreign-exchange reserves supports a national strategy, an open economy and the macro-economic adjustment."

snip>

So much noise, there's surely truth
Of course, to muddy the waters, midweek the Chinese trotted out a few talking heads, apparently to dampen the speculation about what they may be doing with their current dollar reserves and potential future purchases of oil and/or precious metals.

Nevertheless, there have been so many stories about China's reserves reallocation that I believe where there's smoke, there's fire. It makes perfect sense. I think that the Chinese are much more likely to be proactive, in terms of trying to prevent the dollars they own from turning into the confetti that they are -- as opposed to, say, Japanese institutions, which, as investors, always seem to be the mullet of last resort.

Bottom line: It's probably not debatable that the Chinese are in the process of selling some of their dollar reserves. What we don't know is how aggressive their selling has been and how far along they are in the process.

more...

[EuroObserver]

73. An FT new year comentator commentated

as I recall (paper thrown now), that recent detailed analysis shows only some 18% of Chinese exports are to the USA. On the macroeconomic level, the figure may look larger, partly because of non-Chinese firms exporting out of there...

[EuroObserver]

23. The Nasdaq is peaking?

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/mchugh/2006/0116.html
There is a major Bearish Divergence occurring between the NASDAQ 100’s price trend and the trend of its 10 day average Advance/Decline line, warning of a significant decline once this topping pattern completes. We believe the topping pattern is ending a 39 month rally from October 2002 that was merely a correction up of a major decline that started in 2000. The decline from 2000 is taking shape as a down-up-down move, correcting the incredibly long and powerful Bull market from 1971 through 2000. The down move from 2000 to 2002 was the “(A)” down move. The rally since is the “(B)” up move. Coming next — and probably starting in the next few months is the “(C )” down wave.


/more, charts...

[UpInArms]

25. pre-opening blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.0. Stage remains set for the cash market to open on a sharply lower note as traditional pre-earnings season jitters continue to underscore widespread hesitation on the part of buyers. Further weighing on sentiment has been a plethora of notable ratings changes, as analyst downgrades on influential S&P 500 constituents like AMAT, AMD, QCOM, NEM, SNDK, TOL and TYC overshadow upgrades on CAT, GM and UPS.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.0. Still shaping up to be a down day for stocks, as a weaker than expected read on regional manufacturing activity does little to reverse an overall bearish sentiment. Jan NY Empire Index checked in at 20.1 (consensus 22.0) but reaction in both stocks and bonds has been muted, with the 10-yr note still off 1 tick to yield 4.34%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.0. Futures market versus fair value suggests a sharply lower open for equities as a 2.0% surge in crude futures to three-month highs and broad-based weakness overseas underpin a sense of nervousness. Also keeping buyers on the sidelines early on is perhaps growing uncertainty tied to earnings reports from tech giants (i.e. IBM, INTC and YHOO) after the bell.

[EuroObserver]

28. Wall Street set for sharply lower opening

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/bc208f2a-8760-11da-8762-0000779e2340.html
By Robert Orr in New York
Published: January 17 2006 13:54 | Last updated: January 17 2006 13:54

US stocks looked set to follow other world markets lower on Tuesday as the threat of higher oil prices overshadowed other events.
ADVERTISEMENT

With less than an hour to go before the market resumed trading after the Martin Luther King Day holiday, Dow Jones futures were trading 57 points lower.

S&P futures were down 5.7 points, below fair value, while Nasdaq futures were off 13 points, also below fair value.

The main driver was a sharp spike in the crude oil price in the pre-market, on fresh worries over the supply from Nigeria and Iran. Nymex February West Texas Intermediate Brent jumped by $1.31 higher at $65.23 while IPE February Brent added 64 cents at $64.03 a barrel.

Asian and European stocks were also hit hard, with the Euronext 100 off 0.9 per cent at 827.34 in late morning trading.

/more...

[UpInArms]

27. Treasurys droop after New York data

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B223B1EC7%2D513C%2D4B67%2DAA2F%2D9F5D1D2736D9%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices dipped a bit Tuesday, pushing yields higher, after data showed a decline in manufacturing in New York State this month and as industrial-production data for last month were stronger than expected.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury last was down 5/32 at 101-1/32 to yield ($TNX) 4.369%, contrasting with 4.352% in late trade Friday. The market was closed Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday observance.

The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 20.1 in January from a revised 26.3 in December. Read full survey.

The decline was short of expectations. Economists were expecting the index to slip to 21 from the initial estimate last month of 28.7. See Economic Calendar.

Industrial-production figures for December exceeded expectations; they had been expected to show a cooling of manufacturing activity, according to a MarketWatch poll of economists.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. Printing Press Report:Fed adds banking reserves via overnight system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-17T143250Z_01_N17342779_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday that it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.313 percent, above the Fed's current 4.25 percent target for the overnight lending rate.

Further details of the operation are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

53. Treasury completes auctions of 3-month, 6-month bills

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38734.5630082523-857510755&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The Treasury Department Tuesday held 3-month and 6-month bill auctions that were viewed by analysts as successful in light of the large amount of supply sold in recent weeks. The auction of 3-month bills produced a median yield of 4.245%, and a bid-to-cover, or bids rendered to bids accepted, ratio of 2.26. The 6-month bills auction had a median yield of 4.295% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.28. Indirect bidders, a category that includes foreign central banks, accounted for 19.5% of the accepted 3-month bids and 33.5% of the accepted 6-month bids.

[UpInArms]

63. House panel sets Feb. 15 hearing on (Chopper Ben's 1st) Fed's report

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-17T193633Z_01_WBT004569_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-TESTIMONY-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The House Financial Services Committee said on Tuesday it would hold a hearing on the Federal Reserve's semiannual monetary policy report on Feb. 15.

"Federal Reserve Chairman-nominee Ben S. Bernanke, who is awaiting a Senate confirmation vote expected to take place on January 31, is set to deliver his first report on monetary policy to the Finance Services Committee," the panel said in an announcement. The panel said the hearing would be held at 10 a.m. (1500 GMT).

[UpInArms]

72. Senate panel mulling Feb. 16 hearing on (Chopper Ben's) Fed policy

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-01-17T200422Z_01_WBT004571_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-TESTIMONY-SENATE-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is considering holding a hearing on the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report on Thursday, Feb. 16, a spokesman for the panel said on Tuesday.

"We're targeting the 16th," the spokesman said when asked when the committee would hold a hearing. The House Financial Services Committee said earlier on Tuesday it would hold a hearing on the report, formerly known as the Humphrey-Hawkins report, on Wednesday, Feb. 15.

[UpInArms]

29. Cash levels at lowest in nearly five years: survey

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8AE77D08%2DAEDF%2D44B0%2D99A4%2D8788847BBAFC%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Fund managers have rushed into equities over the last couple of months, leaving their cash holdings at the lowest level in nearly five years, according to a monthly fund manager survey conducted by Merrill Lynch.

The Merrill Lynch survey for January found the average cash level among 222 funds had fallen to 3.5% from 4.3% two months ago.

"The most striking thing from the survey is how bullish everybody is," said David Bowers, Merrill Lynch's chief global and European equity strategist in a press conference.

The push into equities indicates investors believe the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle is almost over, said Bowers.

"That sense of euphoria is very, very evident from people's attitude to risk and people's attitude to cash," he added.

<snip>

He added the move into equities is not supported by any significant rethink of growth expectations, with 33% of fund managers expecting a slight improvement in corporate profits over the next year, compared to 32% last month.

...more...

[54anickel]

50. Herd mentality and pure denial goes a long way.

WTF is with this part from your article:

The survey also pointed out that fears of a U.S. recession have increased marginally. Eighty-one percent of respondents said it was NOT likely the U.S. would go into recession in the coming year, compared to 86% in December.

So a mere 5% have joined the small group of 14% in removing the rose colored glasses? Exactly what sort of educational background is required to become a fund manager anyway? Seems the majority all went to the same school... Are they book smart and common sense dumb, or am I the village idiot that sees an elephant in the room here? I predict surprised fund managers joining the ranks of surprised economists. But then again, it's not THEIR money on the line, is it?

http://www.galleryone.com/images/bullas/bullas%20-%20element%20of%20surprise,%20the.jpg

[UpInArms]

57. they need to change the wallpaper in their ivory towers ... n/t

[54anickel]

71. Too bad you don't get fancy paper certificates for your stock holdings

anymore, might make nice wall paper pretty soon.

Oh well, you could always use sheets of these...

[EuroObserver]

74. Wow, that's quaint! n/t

[UpInArms]

30. 9:36 EST blood all over the floor

Dow 10,908.81 -51.06 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,299.42 -17.62 (-0.76%)
S&P 500 1,281.77 -5.84 (-0.45%)
10-Yr Bond 4.365 +0.15 (+0.34%)

NYSE Volume 100,731,000
Nasdaq Volume 103,852,000

09:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.5. Dec. industrial production rose 0.6% (consensus 0.5%) while capacity utilization checked in at 80.7% (consensus 80.5%) but again, investors remain more focused on earnings reports and concerns about oil prices back above $65/bbl. Futures indications still trade well below fair value and suggest stocks will open on a downbeat note.

[UpInArms]

33. SEC suspends trading of Smart Online, Inc. through Jan. 30 (manipulation?)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38734.4035052778-857488567&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission Tuesday suspending trading in Smart Online, Inc. (SOLN) , citing "possible manipulative conduct" in the market for the company's stock. Regulators halted trading of the stock through Jan. 30.

[UpInArms]

35. 10:09 EST not much better

Dow 10,919.29 -40.58 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,303.39 -13.65 (-0.59%)
S&P 500 1,283.15 -4.46 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.367 +0.17 (+0.39%)

NYSE Volume 362,952,000
Nasdaq Volume 325,181,000

10:00 am : Equities remain on the defensive as nine out of ten economic sectors trade in negative territory. Aside from earnings uncertainty tied to tech giants IBM, INTC and YHOO (which report after the bell), analyst downgrades on AMD, AMAT and SNDK have also left Technology as the morning's worst performing sector. Financial has also been under pressure, following Q4 earnings disappointments from Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 38.08 -0.85) and Wells Fargo (WFC 62.95 -0.30), while broad-based weakness throughout Health Care has offset a 7.5% surge in Guidant (GDT 76.15 +5.31) following Boston Scientific's (BSX 24.15 -1.05) sweetened $80/share bid. However, Energy, amid oil's 2.1% surge, and Materials, following Alcoa's (AA 29.18 +0.23) announcement to no longer provide defined benefit pension plans, have posted early gains.BTK -0.6% DJ30 -43.30 DJTA -0.6% DOT -0.5% NASDAQ -14.55 SOX -1.4% SP500 -4.74 XOI +1.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1810/835/278 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1968/839/196 mln

09:40 am : Market opens lower across the board as traditional pre-earnings season uncertainty and surging oil prices prompt investors to lock in gains that have lifted the indices an average of 3.5% in just two weeks. While there is no reason to suspect this quarter won't be like other quarters, with about two-thirds of the S&P 500 anticipated to beat consensus estimates, the market always reflects caution ahead of the reports. Oil prices back above $65/bbl, amid concerns about Iran's nuclear ambitions and reports of another attack on an oil platform in Nigeria, have also underpinned a sense of nervousness, leaving Energy as the only sector attracting early buying interest. DJ30 -46.18 NASDAQ -15.91 SP500 -5.27 NASDAQ Vol 130 mln NYSE Vol 70 mln

[ozymandius]

37. Dow settling ~ -40

10:13Dow 10,922.73 -37.14 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,304.36 -12.68 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,283.32 -4.29 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 43.61 +0.11 (+0.25%)
NYSE Volume 385,095,000
Nasdaq Volume 343,181,000

[UpInArms]

38. Republicans lose second big scalp in sleaze affair

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,11069-1988694,00.html

THE lobbying scandal which threatens to loosen the Republicans’ once iron grip on Congress claimed its second major casualty after Bob Ney stepped down as chairman of a powerful House committee.

His move follows intense pressure from Republican party leaders who fear that the Jack Abramoff bribery case may cost them seats in mid-term elections this November.

Earlier this month, Tom Delay quit as majority leader in the House of Representives when one of his former aides was linked to the corruption charges against Mr Abramoff.

Mr Ney’s decision to go became all but inevitable after it emerged that he and a former chief of staff were caught up in the Justice Department’s investigation into Mr Abramoff’s attempts to bribe members of Congress, rob Indian tribal clients and evade taxation.

<snip>

The scale of the corruption unearthed in the Abramoff investigation makes British political sleaze pale into insignificance. In one instance, it was reported that $1.38 million was put into the transportation Bill by Californian Republican Gary Miller to improve streets in front of a 70-acre development which he and his largest campaign contributors co-own.

<snip>

But Roy Blunt, a Republican from Missouri, is reported to have flown on no fewer than 30 corporate jets provided for him by lobbyists and special interest groups in the past four years.

...more...

[UpInArms]

66. Hastert to move on lobbying reform bill by early March (hurries to get $$$

in pockets before anything happens or someone notices)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38734.615865787-857518240&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- House Republicans plan to move legislation to the floor by early March to overhaul rules that govern contact between lobbyists and lawmakers. The plan outlined by House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., includes a ban on privately funded travel, tighter limits on gifts to lawmakers and increased disclosure of lobbying activities.

[UpInArms]

40. Dana Corp. stung by steep loss

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B8F68AA2B%2DE2A7%2D474D%2DA088%2D334A22891F74%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Dana Corp. shares fell as much as 15% early Tuesday after the auto parts maker, facing soaring raw material costs and lower vehicle production from top customers, said it lost more than a billion dollars in the third-quarter.

At last check, Dana's (DCN) stock, down from a 52-week high of $17.03, was off 70 cents, or 10.3% at $6.10.

The Toledo, Ohio-based company reported a third-quarter loss of $1.27 billion, or $8.50 a share, on sales of $2.4 billion. In the same period a year ago, Dana reported net income of $42 million, or 28 cents a share and sales of $2.11 billion.

A valuation allowance on its tax deferred assets and an impairment charge reduced profit by $918 million and $275 million respectively.

Dana's loss, excluding these items, came in at 42 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had forecast a loss, on average, of 2 cents a share.

"Obviously, our results are far from acceptable, particularly the operating loss," said Dana Chairman and CEO Mike Burns.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

44. Bush leans on Hubbard to deliver on diminished (health care) agenda

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=a_J1ADuhfHaw&refer=us
Jan. 17 (Bloomberg) -- For political advice, President George W. Bush turns to longtime confidant Karl Rove. On the economy, Bush relies on someone he's known even longer: Indiana businessman Al Hubbard.

As director of the White House's National Economic Council, Hubbard is one of the least visible yet most influential members of Bush's inner circle, current and former administration officials say. While he's kept a low profile since taking the job a year ago, his stamp on policy-making is emerging.

``Hubbs'' -- as Bush calls his friend of 30 years -- worked for two decades on health-care issues while he was making millions in business. His interest in loosening government constraints on insurers, drugmakers and providers now is rising to the top of a constrained 2006 Bush agenda, which will be announced in the Jan. 31 State of the Union address.

...

Hubbard's prescriptions for curbing rising health-care costs are contained in the book ``Healthy, Wealthy and Wise,'' written by three economists he brought together. It was published by the American Enterprise Institute, a public policy research organization in Washington.

The book's proposals -- which include making all health- care expenses tax deductible for individuals, making insurance portable and nationwide and expanding the use of report cards that rate doctors and hospitals -- fit with Hubbard's philosophy that markets work best with minimum government intervention.

Free Markets

His interest in health policy stems from his days as a director of Anthem Inc., an Indianapolis-based insurance company that last year bought WellPoint Health Networks Inc. to become WellPoint Inc., the nation's largest health-insurance provider. Hubbard was an Anthem director from 2001 to 2004 and served briefly on the board of the merged company.

``He saw from the inside of a health plan how hard the health plans tried to do the right thing,'' says Ben Lytle, chairman and chief executive of Axia Health Management LLP in Tempe, Arizona, who served with Hubbard on the board. The conclusion Lytle says he and Hubbard drew was ``it has to be the free market that fixes the problem. Government can't.''

Hubbard's ties to Bush go back to the 1970s, when they met at Harvard Business School. Through the ensuing years Hubbard has served as both a political booster of and adviser to Bush.

/much more...

[UpInArms]

47. 12:22 EST below 10,900 and falling

Dow 10,890.72 -69.15 (-0.63%)
Nasdaq 2,300.85 -16.19 (-0.70%)
S&P 500 1,280.27 -7.34 (-0.57%)
10-Yr Bond 4.361 +0.11 (+0.25%)

NYSE Volume 1,027,789,000
Nasdaq Volume 850,546,000

[54anickel]

51. Wow, we should be back to that 10,000-10,500 rangebound area in

no time. Wonder how long before we get back to the 8K range we were at before the war-induced exuberance kicked in?

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

55. 5>>>>>4>>>>>3>>>>>2>>>>>1>>>>>

Gold will be at $600 by the end of January, and Stock Market will be back below $10,500.

As the problems with Iran escalate, Gold should rise even further. If I were an optimistic fellow, I'd predict $700 by March, but I want to restrain my enthusiasm for now, although I think the SH&* is going to start hitting the fan within the next 2 months.

[Zynx]

58. If we got into the 8k range, valuations would be so low it would be almost

criminal. I would put every penny I had into the market if it got that low again. Bear in mind that the market sold off in 2002 as a function of a few things including widespread corporate scandals, weak economic growth(we only grew 1.2% or so in 2002), weak earnings, and geopolitical messes. The market didn't rally in 2003 so much as a function of the war since most companies did not benefit at all from the Iraq War, in fact most have suffered as a result of the higher energy prices since then. The market since 2003 has rallied because corporate profits have been very strong for three consecutive years. With some exceptions the stock market is trading in a proper range of valuation.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

60. In Response To Zynx

In your post you stated...."Bear in mind that the market sold off in 2002 as a function of a few things including widespread corporate scandals, weak economic growth(we only grew 1.2% or so in 2002), weak earnings, and geopolitical messes."

Sounds an awful lot like an accurate prediction of things to come in 2006.

[54anickel]

65. And let's not forget it reached that pre-sell off peak in a time of

"irrational exuberance" to use Greenspin's words. If the late 90's run up to 10K was irrational exuberance, what is the justification for today's levels? JMHO...that sell off was not much more than a blip. It was the beginning of a natural correction in the markets that was not allowed to happen. Greenspin opened the spigot and flooded the system with artificial liquidity, the price for which is yet to come.

[Zynx]

88. Earnings for the Dow companies are a lot higher now than when it first

reached 10k. There was a time when 2,000 on the Dow was considered outrageous. Fundamentals change over time.

[Zynx]

87. If those are your predictions, fine.

[loudsue]

49. Looks like a selling party today!

:kick::kick::kick::kick:

[UpInArms]

52. 1:24 EST redder numbers and blather

Dow 10,883.11 -76.76 (-0.70%)
Nasdaq 2,295.38 -21.66 (-0.93%)
S&P 500 1,279.47 -8.14 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.353 +0.03 (+0.07%)

NYSE Volume 1,279,522,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,043,618,000

1:00 pm : Stocks still languish near their worst levels of the day as sellers remain in control of the action. Despite a narrower than expected loss from Continental Airlines (CAL 17.32 -2.15), soaring oil prices have left airlines (-4.3%) as the day's worst performing industry group. Human resources (-3.2%) ranks #2 among the day's laggards, dragged lower by an analyst downgrade on Robert Half International (RHI 37.59 -1.84), while another quarterly disappointment from Dana Corp (DCN 5.41 -1.39) has left Auto Equipment (-3.0%) in the #3 spot.

DJ30 -73.00 NASDAQ -18.50 SP500 -7.53 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1972/1006/966 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2319/932/870 mln

12:30 pm : Major indices extend their reach into negative territory as the afternoon session gets underway, spearheaded by weakness throughout Technology. Further deterioration has been realized in semiconductor (i.e. AMD, AMAT, INTC and TXN), computer hardware (i.e. AAPL, HPQ and SUNW) and communications equipment (i.e. CSCO and QCOM) -- taking some steam out of three of this year's best performing industry groups.DJ30 -74.45 NASDAQ -17.52 SOX -1.9% SP500 -7.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1880/1081/874 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2238/999/768 mln

[54anickel]

70. Unless it's Tupperware or Ziplock baggies, I ain't interested. eom

[AnneD]

77. Hey 54anickel,

:hi: you just crack me up :spray:

[EuroObserver]

86. (Depends

what's inside :silly: )

[UpInArms]

56. Mecklenburg leads N.C. in foreclosures

http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/breaking_news/13634294.htm

CHARLOTTE, N.C. - As economists predict the tail of the country's long-running housing boom, home loan failures have more than quadrupled since 1999 in Mecklenburg County, the state's worst for foreclosures.

On average, 11 Mecklenburg County houses are sold in foreclosure auctions every business day, The Charlotte Observer reported in a series that started Sunday. The owners are evicted, their credit ruined, and they still face thousands in court fees and moving expenses.

In boom towns around the country with skyrocketing home prices, owners who hit a financial rough spot were able to avoid trouble by selling or refinancing.

But the Charlotte area ranked 252 among 265 metropolitan areas in house price appreciation since 2000, according to federal data. Many owners couldn't sell for enough to pay their debts and didn't have enough equity to refinance, leading to foreclosure.

"It was terrible," said Jackie Hendricks, 61, who lost her family's east Charlotte house in November. "I hope no one else has to go through it."

Within three years after Barbara Nause bought a new house in northwest Charlotte in 2001, six of 18 houses on her street had been foreclosed.

...more...

[UpInArms]

59. 1:58 EST two o'clock faeries reporting for duty

Dow 10,905.44 -54.43 (-0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,300.25 -16.79 (-0.72%)
S&P 500 1,282.49 -5.12 (-0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.346 -0.04 (-0.09%)

NYSE Volume 1,409,777,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,147,542,000

[UpInArms]

76. 3:21 EST faeries attempting to hold the line at 10,900

Dow 10,908.41 -51.46 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,302.18 -14.86 (-0.64%)
S&P 500 1,283.38 -4.23 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.332 -0.18 (-0.41%)

NYSE Volume 1,781,871,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,434,033,000

3:00 pm : Stocks continue to chalk up losses as selling remains widespread across most areas. Bonds, however, continue to inch higher going into the close. The 10-yr note (+06/32) is now at its best levels of the day to yield 4.32%, as talk of several GDP estimates being pared down continues to filter through alongside speculation that tomorrow's CPI data will not surprise the market with inflation concerns. Unfortunately for stock investors, the only rate-sensitive sector that has so far taken notice is the hardly-influential Utilities sector (+0.7%). DJ30 -59.11 DJUA +0.9% NASDAQ -16.06 SP500 -5.39 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2028/1023/1.34 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2224/1070/1.22 bln

2:30 pm : Indices spike higher in the last 30 minutes, getting some assistance behind leadership throughout the Energy sector (+1.8%) as oil prices climb to their highest levels of the day heading into the close of commodities trading. However, recent recovery efforts have been short-lived as short-covering has now helped lift oil prices above $66/bbl, up more than 3.7%, raising energy-induced inflation worries.DJ30 -62.27 NASDAQ -18.27 SP500 -6.34 XOI +1.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1969/1080/1.26 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2191/1080/1.15 bln

[UpInArms]

79. After the Bell: IBM report is in:

4:14pm 01/17/06 IBM ends 2005 with $13.7B of cash on hand - MarketWatch.com

4:13pm 01/17/06 IBM Q4 total rev up 3% adjusting for currency - MarketWatch.com

4:12pm 01/17/06 IBM Q4 total rev up 3% excluding impact of PC unit sale - MarketWatch.com

4:11pm 01/17/06 IBM Q4 gross margin 44.1% vs 38.8% - MarketWatch.com

4:08pm 01/17/06 IBM Q4 hardware rev $6.89B vs $9.5B - MarketWatch.com

4:09pm 01/17/06 IBM Q4 software rev $4.56B vs $4.55B - MarketWatch.com

4:08pm 01/17/06 IBM Q4 global services rev $12B vs $12.6B - MarketWatch.com

4:05pm 01/17/06 IBM Q4 earns from continuing ops $2.01 vs $1.68 - MarketWatch.com

4:06pm 01/17/06 IBM Q4 total rev $24.43B vs $27.67B - MarketWatch.com

4:05pm 01/17/06 IBM Q4 net earns $1.99 vs $1.67 - MarketWatch.com

[UpInArms]

80. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,896.32 -63.55 (-0.58%)
Nasdaq 2,302.69 -14.35 (-0.62%)
S&P 500 1,282.93 -4.68 (-0.36%)
10-Yr Bond 4.332 -0.18 (-0.41%)

NYSE Volume 2,167,921,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,702,267,000

The market opened sharply lower, as soaring oil prices weighed on sentiment, while traditional pre-earnings season uncertainty underpinned additional nervousness throughout the session. The threat of possible UN sanctions on Iran regarding their nuclear ambitions coupled with more violence in Nigeria acted as the day's biggest distractions, reminding investors that the supply-demand balance for oil remains extremely tight as crude futures climbed to three-month highs at $66.30/bbl (+$2.38). While oil's 3.7% surge and gains across the energy complex were a windfall for Energy, helping the sector extend its year-to-date gain to over 10%, the absence of leadership from more influential sectors weighed on the proceedings from start to finish.

To wit, Technology was weak across the board as analyst downgrades on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 32.86 -1.27) and Applied Materials (AMAT 19.76 -0.39) weighed heavily on chip stocks, clouding an upcoming Q4 report from Intel Corp (INTC 25.52 -0.27). Financial was another sore spot for the bulls after Q4 earnings disappointments from Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 38.44 -0.49) and Wells Fargo (WFC 62.69 -0.56) kicked off the quarter's biggest reporting period for the banking group on a sour note. Health Care was also in focus after Boston Scientific (BSX 23.86 -1.34) sweetened its bid for Guidant (GDT 76.22 +5.38) to $27 bln, but BSX's latest amendment raised questions for shareholders over the value of GDT in the face of increasing legal scrutiny about its heart devices.

Even though manufacturing activity showed that the economy remains in good shape, as evidenced by a better than expected 0.6% rise in Dec. industrial production to a record level and a strong 20.1 read on the Jan. Empire State index, the Industrials sector failed to take notice. Analyst downgrades on Tyco International (TYC 26.19 -0.93), Ingersoll-Rand (IR 39.38 -0.99) and Robert Half International (RHI 37.58 -1.85) contributed to the bulk of sector-wide anxiety. United Parcel Service (UPS 74.98 +0.48) was one bright spot after being upgraded at CSFB but was the only transportation component to close higher.

Joining Energy in the plus column were Materials and Utilities. The latter benefited from an afternoon rebound in Treasuries, as speculation that tomorrow's CPI data will not surprise the market with inflation concerns helped knock the yield on the 10-yr note (+06/32) down to 4.32%. BTK -0.2% DJ30 -63.55 DJTA -1.4% DJUA +1.3% DOT -0.5% NASDAQ -14.35 NQ100 -0.6% R2K -0.7% SOX -1.6% SP400 -0.4% SP500 -4.68 XOI +1.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1936/1163/1.72 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2151/1186/1.60 bln

[Roland99]

81. Someone pluck the faeries' wings?

[54anickel]

82. Think they just got clipped is all. Wonder how long it takes before they

molt and get new ones?

[Roland99]

83. I'm guessing about...ohhh....

17 hours.

[54anickel]

84. SNARF!!! Good time to look back to last weeks Wrap-up and charts

from Iossif. Think those fairies might be busy this week so the drop to support is a gentle one.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/iossif/2006/0110.html

snip>

Oil: Support at $62.5, and resistance at $65/67.5. Notice the gaps; if these gaps turn out to be "break-away" gaps, we will see oil at $70 within two weeks.

snip>

Summary

In the report for week of 11-25-05 we had said, "We got to look for the advance to continue until price reaches the 1285-1290 zone for the SP, and in 2280-2300 zone for NASDAQ. At those levels, we ought to get a sharp and short reaction back to support." (see report112505, and also see report121605)

In addition, the technical setup appears to be almost identical to the one that accompanied the rally that started in July of 2005. Consequently, we believe that the rally may have another 1%-2% to go on the upside. However, when the current advance is over, we can expect a decline in excess of 3%, and it could be as much as 7%. Notice the similarities between the current rally and the one that started under similar technical circumstances in mid-July of 2005.

[EuroObserver]

85. Strange happenings along the China coast

http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/display.cfm?id=2512631
(Click on more for free access ("sponsored"):

BUTTONWOOD sometimes wants to rise above the merely mechanical. He wants to see signs and portents for you in this dark world, and he wants to tell you what they mean, whether good or evil. This columnist, though based in Tokyo, was in south China over the weekend, and he saw a sign, or rather felt its presence: the ghostly cavalcade of Kim Jong Il, North Korea’s Dear Leader, as it picked its way through those parts of Guangdong province that are the epicentre of China’s industrial revolution.
...
Buttonwood will not be so foolish as to predict when the property bubble will burst. But he will predict that, contrary to the keenest market expectations, there will be very little in the way of appreciation of the Chinese yuan this year.
...
This mild assertion may seem provocative to many. After all, China’s economy, the government recently announced, was more than one-sixth larger than previously thought, thanks to an under-reported service sector. China’s trade surplus tripled in 2005, to more than $100 billion. Meanwhile, the country’s foreign-exchange reserves—which, it was announced this week, jumped by 34% last year, to $819 billion (see chart 1)—are about to pip Japan’s to become the world’s biggest. This all argues for a further revaluation of the currency. Last summer China revalued the yuan, by a vaulting 2.1%, for the first time since 1994, allowing it to trade in a narrow band against the dollar. Earlier this month the authorities allowed supply and demand a marginally bigger role in setting the currency’s value. America wants a drastic revaluation of the yuan, and whenever the Americans are silent for long about the matter, Chinese officials themselves drop tantalising hints. Many billions in hot money is riding on a revaluation.

/more...

[oioioi]

89. Tokyo am down ANOTHER 2.5% on INTC - Nasdaq going south Wed?

Intel down 9% in New York after hours. Yahoo almost 13%!!!!

Tomorrow ain't gonna be pretty.

[54anickel]

90. Check the futures on the AfterHours page...all down big time

http://money.cnn.com/data/afterhours/

S&P -10.30
NAS -25.00
DOW -80.00

[oioioi]

91. japan Nikkei in freefall - Down 550pts (3.5%) - Trading to be halted?

Overnight futures still easing.

Nikkei drops over 4% after TSE says may halt trading

TOKYO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - The Nikkei share average fell over 4 percent on Wednesday after the Tokyo bourse said it would suspend trading of all shares listed on the world's second-largest stock market if the number of trades exceeds its system's capacity.

The Tokyo Stock Exchange said that the number of trades totalled 2.32 million during the morning session, nearing the bourse's capacity to handle of 4 million.

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh37307_2006-01-18_04-22-43_t90167_newsml