'Green' Measures Key to Earth's Future, Report Says
By Usha Lee McFarling, Times Staff Writer
By 2050, the planet's population will increase to 9 billion, with most people migrating to massive cities. Better vaccines will lessen the epidemic of HIV and offset flu pandemics. The global economy will quadruple. Demand for food, fresh water and raw materials for construction and heat will stretch natural resources to their limits, according to an analysis released Thursday.
If major changes are not made in the way humans consume natural resources, there will be widespread famine, severe shortages of clean water and huge impacts from natural disasters such as hurricanes. Cities will be beset by vast amounts of wastewater and sewage. Sea levels will rise, fisheries will collapse, emerging disease epidemics will sweep across the globe and coral reefs will die off, said authors of the new report, "The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment." Commissioned by the United Nations, the work is a four-year effort by 1,300 scientists from 95 countries.
This grim scenario, however, can be avoided through policy decisions that emphasize environmental technology, poverty reduction and investments in education and health, the report's authors said.
"Despite what looks like steady decline, this is a story of hope," said Stephen Carpenter, a lead author of the report and expert on ecosystem management at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "The good news is that we can make a very positive difference by 2050."
During the last 50 years, living conditions have improved for a majority of the planet's population: People live longer, are better nourished and wealthier and are able to participate more in government, said Walter Reid, a professor at Stanford University's Institute for the Environment and director of the assessment. That progress, though, has come at a heavy cost to natural resources. The continued degradation of resources such as forests and fresh water will severely affect quality of life, particularly for the poor, he said....
http://www.latimes.com/news/science/la-fg-future20jan20,0,1203827.story?coll=la-home-science