Canada's Liberals closing the gap on conservatives.

[mikeybabe125]

To me, this has me wondering. Why, after 13 years of liberal rule, is Canada's liberal party in a slump, in all times. A global surging of conservatism? God I hope not. The liberals shouldn't even of been behind, but I guess I shouldn't complain to much.
-----------------------------------------------------------

OTTAWA - Canada’s opposition Conservatives are still leading the ruling Liberals ahead of Monday’s federal election but the gap is shrinking, according to a new poll released late on Sunday.

The SES Research daily tracking poll for the CPAC television network showed the Conservatives at 36 percent, down one point from the previous day. The Liberals were at 30 percent, up two points.

The poll suggest the Conservatives will win the election, ending 12 years of Liberal rule, but will not gain a majority of the 308 seats in Parliament.

The left-leaning New Democrats, who backed the Liberal government for much of 2005, were down a point at 17 percent.

The poll of 1,200 people was carried out between Jan. 19-21 and is considered to be accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.


http://www.khaleejtimes.com/DisplayArticle.asp?xfile=data/theworld/2006/January/theworld_January513.xml§ion=theworld

[bluestateguy]

1. Too late

Like Humphrey's last minute surge in 1968 against Nixon.

[daleo]

2. There was a +7% swing to the Liberals last time on election day

Something of that order could easily happen again.

[mikeybabe125]

3. ya but my point is...

It hasent been this close before, and I find it convient to right when King George is trying to take over the world.

[HuffleClaw]

22. last time the polls were found to be wrong all around

the pollsters collectively said 'oops' and that was that.

[AX10]

50. if the polls are wrong this time to, then a hung paliament is...

a likely outcome.

[kevinbgoode]

4. Stephen Harper is just plain scary. . .

and no matter how well he packages himself, he has a history that would make any right wingnut American proud. The Freeps have been praying 24/7 for another stealth campaign to work on an unsuspecting public.

[Ediacara]

6. Who would the Torries form a government with though?

The NDP? The Bloc? How long could a far-right/far-left coalition last? Six months?

[kevinbgoode]

7. I think he's been trying to make gestures toward Quebec

but then again, that might get the PQ even more upset with him. I think Quebec likes social service programs, and wingnuts hate anything that provides help to people.

[regnaD kciN]

28. The thing is...

...with an almost certain Conservative minority government, Harper will need support from other parties (more specifically, parties on the center-left of the spectrum) to pass his party's initiatives. Thus, unlike here, he will have little choice but to "moderate" himself; otherwise, the no-confidence motions will be coming thick and fast, and we'll likely be seeing a new election there within a year at the most.

[zann725]

40. Harper is a Right Wing Nut/Clone. I swear they're already cloning

the candidates they want. Harper LOOKS, speaks and acts like a Repug AMERICAN candidate...not Canadian. It's a subtle difference, but stood out noticeably in the recent TV debates. Ever times the cameras swung to Harper, I felt my inner-voice say, "That guy's a political "plant." Martin displeased Shrub last year, so he's out, Harper's in.

In a way, Harper reminds me of Judge Roberts. That same vacant, robot-like Manchurian candidate quality. To me, at least...

[genieroze]

5. Do they use Diebold voting machines?

[Posteritatis]

13. No, we use pencils. (n/t)

[daleo]

16. We just use pencil and paper

So, however it turns out, you can be sure that no big electoral scam has been perpetrated. My position is that the popular vote and seat count will be almost a dead heat.

[Minstrel Boy]

8. "Why, after 13 years of liberal rule"

That's it right there.

It's not that Canadians are tired of liberal rule. It's that Canadians are tired of the Liberals. Big difference.

There have been about three or four polls a day for weeks. The trend is more interesting that the article suggests. The SES polls have been a rolling aggregate of the most current three-day sample. The last day actually shows a sharp upturn for the NDP, as do other polls released this weekend.

My expectation, looking at the regional breakdowns, is that the Liberals are going to get crushed. They will be losing on the right to the Conservatives and on the left to the NDP. The Conservatives should win a minority government, and I expect the Bloc Quebecois will form the official opposition. I don't expect the Liberals to win more than 60 seats, and the NDP could pull close to them.

[kevinbgoode]

34. I don't trust the Cons. . .

Well, that's because of the growing influence of those evangelicals and the coaching of the Tories by the U.S. Republican Party. I hope they don't gain enough seats to take outright control, because the agenda will be earthshattering, particularly when they decide to wage war on your Senate and your judicial system.

[Demeter]

44. Yeah, Heaven Can Be Boring

When I think of how many of my US acquaintance would leap at a chance to live in a country not dominated by wingnuts, I just have to say

Oh, Canada!

[Massacure]

49. So NDP and Libs will form a coalition that can put down the conservatives?

[Minstrel Boy]

51. I don't think that will happen

The numbers aren't likely to be there. It probably would take the addition of the BQ to offset the Conservatives, and that's not in the cards.

The likely outcome is the Conservatives governing issue to issue, moderating their positions enough to survive on their own for a year or so before another election.

[u4ic]

9. I'm hoping that the Cons lead

in the polls has Canadians concerned enough now.

Doesn't matter who I vote for, the Cons will be elected in my riding. :puke:

[Minstrel Boy]

10. Another poll out today with a larger sample size

Strategic council, 2,500 polled, pdf here

The only party with momentum the last days has actually been the NDP.

(2004 election results in parentheses)

NATION
Lib 27 (37)
Con 37 (30)
NDP 19 (16)
BQ 11 (12)
GRN 6 (4)

QUEBEC
Lib 14 (34)
Con 25 (9)
NDP 7 (5)
BQ 48 (49)
GRN 6 (3)

REST OF CANADA
Lib 31 (38)
Con 41 (37)
NDP 22 (19)
GRN 6 (5)

ATLANTIC CANADA
Lib 34 (44)
Con 36 (30)
NDP 24 (23)
GRN 5 (3)

ONTARIO
Lib 36 (45)
Con 37 (32)
NDP 22 (18)
GRN 6 (4)

Toronto 416
Lib 39 (56)
Con 27 (20)
NDP 27 (20)
GRN 7 (4)

Ontario Outside Greater Toronto Area
Lib 30 (40)
Con 40 (35)
NDP 23 (20)
GRN 6 (5)

MAN/SASK
Lib 21 (30)
Con 47 (40)
NDP 25 (23)
GRN 7 (3)

ALBERTA
Lib 15 (22)
Con 69 (62)
NDP 8 (10)
GRN 8 (6)

BRITISH COLUMBIA
Lib 31 (29)
Con 32 (36)
NDP 32 (27)
GRN 6 (6)

[Minstrel Boy]

21. And here's an even bigger one just out

from Ipsos-Reid (9,648 polled) showing similar numbers:

Con 38%
Lib 27%
NDP 19%
BQ 12%
GRN 4%

Ipsos is projecting Conservatives win 148-152 seats, Liberals 62-66, NDP 34-38, BQ 56-60. (A majority is 155.)

[kevinbgoode]

31. Yikes...isn't that awfully close to a majority?

That doesn't look like it would be too hard for the Conservatives to start pushing their social agenda.

[Spazito]

26. The Strategic Counsel has been discredited, their polls mean

squat, their numbers have been discredited as well when compared to all the other polls.

[Minstrel Boy]

29. They discarded the momentum question and their numbers

have since come into line with other pollsters.

Ipsos Reid's sampling is almost 10,000, and has similar numbers.

[Spazito]

39. Their methodology has been discredited and 'late in the game'

changes due to being dropped by some media in no way gives them any greater credibility, imo. There are plenty of legitimate polls out there, Strategic Counsel is not one of them. I certainly give much more credence to Ipsos Reid's polls than I would SC. It is interesting, imo, that, only now are their numbers more in line with the other polls. If their methodology had been legitimate, why the drastic change and the sudden ability to come in line with other pollsters?

I can only hope CTV and the Globe and Mail have learned their lesson and will not be using these shysters after this.

[Minstrel Boy]

43. Their methodology was illegitimate

SC was push-polling leading with the momentum question, which caused an inflation of Conservative numbers. They dropped it just in time to get their figures in line with other polsters so they can claim accuracy measured against the vote.

[mikeybabe125]

11. perhaps the NDP...

has something going for them.

after all, I've seen many former liberals turn to the NDP. Are they better than the current Liberals in Canada?

[Minstrel Boy]

12. I think so

But then, I'm a life-long NDPer.

There do seem to be a lot of former Liberals coming over this time, though:

"I have voted Liberal for years but I am now not proud of it, I am sick of the broken promises and the lies. I had no idea who I was going to vote for, if at all, but now that I have heard you and read this web site, I know now that the NDP have my vote for sure." – Lisa, Woodstock

"The Liberals are selling us out to the USA almost as quickly as the Tories would do ... You are 100% correct when you say that we won't get the government we want unless we vote for it." – David P., Edmonton

"Ever since I could vote, I've voted Liberal in the federal elections. But not this time. The Liberals have not given me results on the environment, and they're too much focused on helping rich people and big companies. The NDP has proven that they will fight for what I believe in Ottawa. No matter where you live, no matter how popular the NDP is, just go out and vote NDP. It's for your Canada!" – Wilda, Saskatoon

[Lorien]

14. So the Liberals are Canada's DLCers?

I'm still trying to sort out the philosophies of the various parties up North.

[mikeybabe125]

17. YES that is exactly it...

Apparently the liberals there sell out the Canadians almost as bad as the Tories do.

Canadian liberals = American DLC

[Minstrel Boy]

19. The Liberals are a really big tent

that includes a range from pragmatic progressives to social conservatives. (For instance, Liberal MP Tom Wappel who includes on his website the text of a speech he delivered in 2003 in which he said "I have crisscrossed the country, trying to raise awareness amongst Canadians that the institution of marriage was under attack by the activist homosexual agenda.")

The Liberal Party has governed Canada for something like 80 of the past 100 years. It's consumately centrist. (Though the Canadian centre is further left than the American.) When it's moved left, it's done so because of the NDP.

Pierre Trudeau was an NDPer who joined the Liberal Party because the NDP was going nowhere in Quebec. But first he wrote that "the philosophy of the Liberal Party is very simple - say anything, think anything, or better still, do not think at all, but put us in power because it is we who can govern you best."

[Flucius]

23. IMO

NDP=Howard Dean wing of the Democratic party

Liberals=Hillary Clinton wing of the Democratic Party

Conservatives=Joe Lieberman wing of the Democratic party

[Brundle_Fly]

36. dont give joe that much credit.

Harper is pretty friggin' evil, Lieberman sould be gross but harper is disgusting.

[Minstrel Boy]

15. here's a piece from Sunday's Toronto Star that

suggests good things:


NDP will stem Tory tide: Layton
Jan. 22, 2006. 03:08 PM
CANADIAN PRESS

Jack Layton cruised home today poised to gain seats in Ontario and British Columbia after running a steady campaign that seems to have drawn some middle-of-the-road voters. Pollsters and seat projectors are calling for near-record results for New Democrats in the seismic shift that may trigger a Conservative victory Monday. Some even say Layton’s NDP could approach the party’s all-time high of 43 seats under Ed Broadbent in 1988.

However, even NDP insiders say that result would require a tremendous amount of luck in a dozen three-way races where Liberals, Conservatives or New Democrats each have a chance of winning.

n 2004, the party seemed to be poised to win about 30 seats. Then as polling results rolled in through the night a dozen of them disappeared to the Conservatives and Liberals. The NDP lost many of them by a few hundred votes or less. Pollsters and the party blamed the shift on last-minute strategic voting by soft NDP supporters who thought Liberals were a better bet to stop Tories.

“All I’ll say is, this campaign is absolutely not a repeat of 2004,” said NDP strategist Jamey Heath. “We’re not making predictions, but are confident people know whose side we’re on. . . . We expect to defeat many Conservative MPs and Liberal MPs tomorrow.”

[mikeybabe125]

18. It seems to me that...

The NDP is great and all... but seems like there the green party here... they are minority status and really couldent win the election.

Can someone verify if that is true or not?

[Minstrel Boy]

20. US Greens are not a good analogy

The NDP form provincial and municipal governments and currently have the vote of 1 in 5 Canadians. It was leading the federal polls in the late '80s. The US Greens have never approached equivalent levels of support.

[sojourner]

24. shit. they better learn a thing or two from the US!

those "New Democrats" better throw their support to the liberals or they WILL face conservative rule. Just what we all need.

edited to delete multiple expletives...:eyes:

[mikeybabe125]

25. but the problem is the liberals...

so many there complain they do nothing and are about as bad as the Tories... I mean after 13 years of rule the poepel are tired of it... but I agree it is the lesser of the two evils... Anything to keep the neocons out.

[sojourner]

30. remember when that was the argument here? tired uninspired dems v repubs?

good god how i wish the greenies and independents had been able to see the future. think they'd have said -- oh, well. what's a steep descent into fascism?

[u4ic]

32. Liberal party = capital L

us lefties = liberals (small l)

Thanks.

Welcome to DU! :hi:

[Spazito]

27. Interesting, the NDP received 15.7 % of the vote last election

It may well be mirrored in this one again given the strategic voter effect. All in all, will be an interesting night tomorrow. The NDP will take at least one seat from the faux Cons, my riding will go NDP given the faux Con has been charged with smuggling, lol.

Link to 2004 election results:

http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/2004-results.html#2004

[Minstrel Boy]

33. It'll be an interesting night.

As a New Democrat I'm unusually optimistic. I mean, I'm usually optimistic - we have to be! - but I think our vote is holding and growning, while Libs and Cons remain stagnant.

See it displayed graphically on the CTV poll tracker.

The Liberals "strategic vote" bullshit cost about 10 NDP seats to the Conservatives last time. (NDP candidates were leading, with Liberals third. Scaremongering that the Liberals were the "only ones" who could defeat the Conservatives siphoned off enough votes to send the second place Conservatives off the top.) That ploy doesn't seem to be working this election.

[Astrad]

45. Worked for me

I haven't voted liberal since Trudeau. But given the choice between a conservative minority and a liberal one, I go with the liberals. Plus I'm pissed at the NDP for causing this election in the first place. If we end up with a conservative majority, Jack Layton should be sent out on an ice floe.

[High Plains]

47. The Canadian Nader?

[Minstrel Boy]

48. er, no

It's just wrong to view Canadian multiparty politics through the prism of the US two-party model.

1 in 5 Canadians currently support the NDP. What was Nader drawing at his height? (And this isn't the NDP's historic height.) The NDP have decades of experience winning and governing at the provincial level. Can the US Greens claim similar success?

[kevinbgoode]

35. Oh..is that the one I heard about in B.C. . .?

I sometimes listen to CFAX in Victoria late at night. . .Coast to Coast AM. . .hehehe.

[Spazito]

46. Yep, a candidate from the party that will 'restore' ethics is facing

6 charges including smuggling, tax evasion, etc. It is a hoot! There will be a fair number of voters that will still vote for him, not enough for him to win I am fairly confident, and I am getting my letter to the editor ready to point out that it is only criminals in other parties that are bad not those in the faux Con party, lol.

[Bassic]

37. I for one am not convinced this "Conservative surge"

Is as strong as the papers would have us believe. Course I could be wrong, but I guess we'll see tonight.

[Minstrel Boy]

38. Beginning of the end for Liberals, hopes NDP

Beginning of the end for Liberals, hopes NDP

OTTAWA -- Ed Broadbent once brashly predicted the demise of the Liberal party, a mistake he doesn't intend to make twice.

But he and other New Democrats are quietly hopeful that if Monday's election turns out they way they hope, they'll have a golden opportunity to eventually displace Canada's self-proclaimed natural governing party once and for all.

...

Prime Minister Paul Martin's strategists had hoped NDP supporters would stampede to the Liberals at the eleventh hour to stop the Conservatives, just like they did in the 2004 election. But opinion polls suggest the pitch hasn't worked this time. If anything, Liberal support appears to have bled to the NDP.

...

University of Winnipeg president Lloyd Axworthy, a veteran minister from the Trudeau and Chretien eras, suggested it might be a long, arduous process. "The Liberal party has lost much of its relevance," he said. In the wake of the sponsorship scandal, it has come to be seen "as an election machine that you can buy and pay for." Axworthy has seen the party hit rock bottom before. He was one of only two Liberals left standing in all of Western Canada in 1984, when Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives swept the country. The Liberals were reduced to 40 seats, only 10 more than the New Democrats.

http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/news/story.html?id=23ba4eb6-d24f-43d1-85c2-8f4602750daf&k=41511

[Canuckistanian]

41. It's going to be the Progressive Conservatives again

Only this time without the "progressive".

Thank God they're only going to be a minority.

That leaves the NDP as the only possible ally for the Conservatives. The Bloc hates them.

This might be another short government, but they could do a lot of damage in that time.

[savemefromdumbya]

42. Having lived in Canada

I can't believe they would be so stupid to vote in a neo nazi party.

[oneoftheboys]

52. The culture of corruption is going to get the Gopers in the US...

and it will get the Liberals in CA.