Iranian official: UN sanctions may lead us to seal off Persian Gulf

[allemand]

By Yossi Melman, Haaretz Correspondent

A senior Iranian official threatened that Tehran may forcibly prevent oil export via the Straits of Hormuz if the UN imposed economic sanctions due to Iran's nuclear program, an Iranian news Web site said on Monday.

This is the first time an Iranian official makes military threats in a public statement on Tehran's recent disagreements with the West.

The news site, affiliated with the radical student movement in which President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was once a member, quoted Mohammed-Nabi Rudaki, deputy chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission.

According to the report, Rudaki said that "if Europe does not act wisely with the Iranian nuclear portfolio and it is referred to the UN Security Council and economic or air travel restrictions are imposed unjustly, we have the power to halt oil supply to the last drop from the shores of the Persian Gulf via the Straits of Hormuz."

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/674159.html

[LiberalVoice]

1. A comforting thought.

"Raduki also warned that his country might quit from its membership in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty "

[Poll_Blind]

2. Cue song "We'll meet again..." and stock footage of atomic explosions. n/t

PB

[Voltaire99]

20. "Gentlemen! You can't fight in here--this is the war room!" (nt)

[leftchick]

3. who could have predicted this?

:nuke:

[teryang]

4. Can this last another 5-6 weeks?

I had expected this thing to go into active armed conflict in March based on statements covered in the Israeli press and American plans to stop reported M3 money supply figures.

This crisis will force the government to flood the markets with liquidity.

[Disturbed]

5. It seems that Iran will not buckle under the ...

demands of the Amerikan Empire.

[54anickel]

24. I think it can on Iran's part. They are in no hurry, they have Russia

pushing for diplomacy and keeping this with the IAEA. The IAEA had given Iran until March 6 and despite Bushco's push for a vote in Feb, so far the IAEA has said no. They will give an updated report in Feb but will not go back on the March 6 date agreed to with Iran. Meanwhile this plays well back home in Iran, gets EU members thinking about whether the should really be supporting sanctions and scares the hell outta most everyone.

I'd be interested to know the context these quotes were taken from. Was it in some official meeting capacity or at a college pep rally. It certainly is a veiled threat to cut off the straight. Lot of implied ifs in there though. I don't think Russia and China have made any firm commitments to not veto the vote yet.

"if Europe does not act wisely with the Iranian nuclear portfolio and (if) it is referred to the UN Security Council and (if) economic or air travel restrictions are imposed unjustly, we have the power to halt oil supply to the last drop from the shores of the Persian Gulf via the Straits of Hormuz."

[KeepItReal]

6. Bush & Co: "Things are back to the way they were"

Iran may start mining the Persian Gulf again and attacking tankers??

Way to instigate, Bush & Co...

[IndianaGreen]

7. The shipping lanes across the Strait of Hormuz are very narrow

Iran could sink one or more US Navy ships in retaliation for an attack on her soil by Israel and/or the US.

Iran will win in any US-Iran war. We stand to lose far more than the Iranians!

[KeepItReal]

9. Gulf War I, Bush Daddy had the Navy put aircraft carriers in the Gulf

...against their policy. The whole Persian Gulf ain't that wide.

If Iran wanted to attack a carrier or two back then the Navy would have been in huge trouble.

I hope we've pulled them out of there.

[0007]

8. Gulp!

[Javaman]

10. Um, why don't they just stop filling the tankers?

I mean, if their goal is to stop the flow of oil, then turn off the spigot.
I don't see the purpose of closing the straight.

[Strelnikov_]

11. Iran Exports ~2.6 Mbbl/dy, Significant In A Tight Market

but not severe. The loss could be absorbed through demand destruction (higher prices).

On the other hand, 17 M bbl/dy passes through the Strait, which probably represents at least 25% of the worlds exports. There is no way this loss could be absorbed for a period exceeding, say, a month. Petrocollapse of the western economies, and China, would probably begin.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints/Hormuz.html

[Heewack]

12. No way the rest of the oil consuming world allows that to happen.

It would be over for Iran.

[Strelnikov_]

13. The Asia Times Agrees

Why The West Will Attack Iran

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HA24Ak01.html

[daleo]

19. The article strikes me as neo-con propaganda

In a nutshell, it seems to say the west must attack Iran now (and take over its oilfields presumably) or Iran will attack its neighbors in 20 or so years to take over their oilfields. It is like a burglar saying he has to break into his neighbor's house today to prevent his neighbor from breaking into someone else's house 20 years from now.

[54anickel]

23. Not exactly what I'm used to seeing from Asia Times. Know anything

about this Spengler character who penned it?

on edit - never mind. Doesn't really give an author. Seems they have a section devoted to Oswald Spengler and place articles that somehow relate to "The Decline of the West" in that section. Never knew about this section of the Asia Times before.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/others/spengler.html

[wuushew]

14. Closing the straits would stop other gulf states from exporting as well

Kuwait, U.A.E., Quatar, Bahrain and Iraq(if it is actually exporting anything).

A smart economic weapon to use if indeed Amerika/Israel did indeed pre-emptively attack Iran. Prepare for inflation and economic misery.

[oblivious]

16. Oil from Saudi, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Bahrain and Iran goes thru there

[mmonk]

15. The Ides of March

[tatertop]

17. how appropriate

[warrens]

18. Our foreign policy wiz strikes again

Braying like a demented donkey is such an effective method of communicating our foreign policy objectives. Calling everyone you don't like "evil" and threatening them with invasion really wins friends and influences people. Keep it up, Chimpy, you incompetent fascist boob.

[Voltaire99]

21. This must have given Cheney wood.

If anything can. Nothing like the prospect of more war to bring color to the cheeks of that pale lard-ass.

Alas, the writing's on the wall: the Democrats, being as wed as Rethugs to the idea of endless cheap oil for SUV Nation, will sign up for this little adventure, too.

[lagavulin]

22. Wash. Times OpEd piece last week talked all about this:

The mullahs' war games

By Douglas Hanson
January 19, 2006


In Austin Bay's commentary of Jan. 6 in The Washington Times, "Mullah's quest and fears," he says that in the 1990s, Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) "quarreled" over islands in the Persian Gulf, and he referred to this fracas as "lightweight sparring." I respectfully disagree with this view, because this "quarrel" was one of the opening maneuvers by Iran to seize areas that would allow the mullahs to slow or stop shipments of a large portion of the world's oil supply.

One of the islands in this dispute between the UAE and Iran is Abu Musa. In March of 1992, Iran started its gambit to effectively shut down the Straits of Hormuz by seizing this strategic island. Abu Musa is located in the Persian Gulf about halfway between Iran and the UAE, and is positioned at the narrow mouth of the straits. If the right weaponry were to be deployed there, Iran could potentially seal off the straits.

After gaining control of the island, this is precisely what Iran did....

[lovuian]

25. Iran is not Iraq there not as dumb as Saddam

They are on some topnotch real estate and they know it too...

[sweetheart]

26. 12 mile limit?

I wonder how international boundaries work in a place like that.
If iran uses the US system, then it has a 200 mile zone, and can
engage militarily any ship within that range of its coast. But if it
were only to enforce 12, that would be enough to close the straight as
i'm reading. How deep is it? I would love to see a marine chart of it.
I wonder how close to which coaslines the navigatable shipping lanes are.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straight_of_Hormuz

Surely a series of mobile torpedo launchers and artillery could
sink anything iran wants to if it has the need.