STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 7 February

[UpInArms]

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 7 February

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1077 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1874 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1574 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1535
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES


AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 6, 2006

Dow... 10,798.27 +4.65 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq... 2,258.80 -3.78 (-0.17%)
S&P 500... 1,265.02 +0.99 (+0.08%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.545 +0.12 (+0.26%)
Gold future... 574.30 +2.70 (+0.5%)





GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions

(UIA - just filling in for Ozy!)

[UpInArms]

1. Today's WrapUp by Rob Kirby

DEBT MARKETS DEMYSTIFIED

This week the U.S. Treasury is set to undertake a very large and onerous quarterly refunding with the re-introduction of the 30 year or “long bond.” Treasury debt to be auctioned is as follows:

Tuesday Feb 7 ....... 21 billion 3 year notes
Wednesday Feb 8 ....13 billion 10 year notes
Thursday Feb 9 .......14 billion reintroduction of the long bond (30 yr.)]

This represents almost 50 billion worth of issuance and with the deteriorating state of the U.S. government’s finances – it seemed like an appropriate time to revisit the debt markets with an overview of how they work and how they’re graded.

Root Causes

We all know that governments incur debt – of that there is no question. A good many of us probably even realize that U.S. debt can be broadly summarized as arising from fiscal imbalances or through the Current Account . These two distinct drivers of debt have lent to the “coining of the phrase” – the twin deficits – namely, those of the aforementioned fiscal and current accounts. To keep the two straight in your mind it would perhaps be best to view the former as arising from government spending and the latter resulting from an imbalance in international trade.

Often, in the media – folks speak of either the growing rate of indebtedness as a percentage of GDP being “too much” or “unsustainable.” What I would like to discuss or attempt to explain - is how we know or ascertain that indebtedness is in fact too much, unsustainable or near a breaking point – since anyone who would be old enough to read this excerpt would most assuredly have heard these claims for as long as they remember.

<snip>

Recent debt auctions – as outlined above – have reported at best tepid results which are at odds, to say the least, with recent strength the U.S. Dollar has shown on foreign exchange markets.

With this week’s roughly 50 billion in 3 year, 10 year and 30 year bonds being auctioned, the global investment community will no doubt be keeping a close watch on the upcoming results.

...more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/daily/monday.htm

[RawMaterials]

31. “coining of the phrase” – the twin deficits

why is it when I think of the twin deficits, the one thing that I can picture is the twin towers on 9-11 crumbling down. :cry:

[AnneD]

45. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: RawMaterials, maybe this will cheer you. When I think of twin deficits, I think of Bush-Cheney or George-Jeb, depending on the context.
Well, today is the day that the homeless population grows. FEMA will stop room vouchers for many Katrina survivours. Here in Houston they are organizing. I hope they do a grand march on DC this summer. In fact, when I am not engaged in that uniquely American activity of working a second job. I plan to be in the streets. I hope to go to DC for a little rabble rousing.

Say Ozy, forget the t-shirt. Bring back a bottle of good Ca. wine for me...
Happy hunting, and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

49. G'morning, AnneD!

:donut: ?

Wish we could turn those virtual foods into the real thing for all those displaced Katrina evacuees :(

[AnneD]

82. G'day mate...

Read on another thread that Nagin will be going overseas for aid. I hope he takes some of those funds and pays for buses to get some of these evacuees up to DC to protest in the streets. Houston has had problems just getting the government to pay us what we were promised in order to help these folks. I can only imagine what the local governments is going through. This was a catastrophy, unseen by this generation in this country. Our government and Bush in particular (by virtue of his choices) has failed us. The GOP doesn't have much support here.

[UpInArms]

2. Today's Report:

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

Feb 7	3:00 PM	Consumer Credit	Dec	-	$8.0B	$5.0B	-$0.6B	-

[UpInArms]

55. Existing Home Sales to Fall 5% in 2006

10:00am 02/07/06 U.S. HOME PRICES TO RISE 5% TO $219,200: REALTORS

10:00am 02/07/06 NEW HOME SALES TO FALL 8.5% TO 1.17MLN: REALTORS

10:00am 02/07/06 EXISTING HOME SALES TO FALL 5% TO 6.74MLN IN 2006: REALTORS

10:00am 02/07/06 REALTORS: US HOUSING MARKET SLOWING, WILL STAY STRONG IN '06

[UpInArms]

59. Real Estate Market is "cyclical" - Whoops! What happened to "only up?"

Realtors see 4.7 pct drop in 2006 US home resales

WASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. home sales will fall in 2006 as house prices rise at rates far below those notched last year, but the housing market should remain healthy by historic standards, a trade group said on Tuesday.

The National Association of Realtors' chief economist said sales of existing U.S. homes should drop 4.7 percent to 6.74 million units this year, down from a record 7.07 million in 2005.

Sales of new homes should fall 8.5 percent to 1.17 million units from a record of 1.28 million in 2005, David Lereah said in his monthly outlook. He pegged 2006 housing starts at 1.87 million units, down 9.3 percent from the 2.06 million posted in 2005.

"Sometimes people lose sight of the fact that real estate is cyclical," he said. "Even so, sales will continue at a historically high pace with modestly higher interest rates as the year progresses, and 2006 is forecast to be the third strongest year on record."

...more...

[UpInArms]

119. Consumer Credit Report - looks like that 2/3rd engine for GDP is dying

3:00pm 02/07/06 U.S. 2005 CONSUMER CREDIT RISES 3%, SMALLEST IN 14 YRS.

3:00pm 02/07/06 U.S. NOV. CONSUMER CREDIT REVISED TO $567 MLN VS. -$649 MLN

3:00pm 02/07/06 U.S. DEC. NONREVOLVING CREDIT RISES $4.3 BILLION, OR 3.8%

3:00pm 02/07/06 U.S. DEC. REVOLVING CREDIT DROPS $939 MILLION, OR 1.4%

3:00pm 02/07/06 U.S. DEC. CONSUMER CREDIT RISES $3.3 BILLION, OR 1.9%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38755.6255728241-859663137&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Outstanding U.S. consumer credit rose at an annual rate of 1.9%, or $3.3 billion, in December to $2.16 trillion, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. In November, credit rose a revised $567 million, or at a .32% annual rate. Consumer credit rose 3% for all of 2005, the smallest annual increase since 1992. In December, revolving debt like credit cards decreased $939 million, or 1.4% annualized. Non-revolving debt like automobile loans rose $4.3 billion, or 3.8% annualized.

[UpInArms]

122. Surprised Economists!2005 Consumer Credit posts smallest increase since 92

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-07T202420Z_01_WAT004810_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CREDIT-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer credit rose by a less-than-expected $3.35 billion in December as credit card debt dipped, while consumer credit for the full year posted the smallest rise since 1992, a Federal Reserve report showed on Tuesday.

Analysts polled by Reuters were expecting a $4.5 billion rise in consumer credit in the month after a revised $568 million gain in November that was originally reported as a $649 million decline.

Consumer credit outstanding rose to $2.162 trillion in December, an annual rate of 1.9 percent gain from the revised $2.158 trillion in November.

Consumer credit rose 3 percent in all of 2005, the smallest rise since a gain of 1 percent in 1992, the Fed said.

Revolving credit, which includes credit and charge cards, climbed 2.6 percent for the year, the smallest increase since 2.5 percent in 1980. In December, revolving credit fell $939 million.

Non-revolving credit -- closed-end loans for cars, boats, education expenses and holidays -- rose 3.2 percent in 2005, the weakest performance since a 1.2 percent drop in 1992.

...more...

Let's me think....

Who was president in 1992...

hmmm.....

errrr.....

Oh Yeah!

It was Dimson's Puking Poppa!

[AnneD]

124. Well, well, well....

consumers not spending and the RE market softening. Wonder when some of these poor folks will be upside down in their loans, those exotic loans come due houses go into foreclosure and the banks and Mortgage Co's start having to eat the loans. :nopity:

[UpInArms]

3. Oil slips below $65 on expected US stock increase

&cap=A%20South%20Korean%20bank%20employee%20counts%20one%20hundred-dollar%20notes%20at%20a%20bank%20in%20Seoul%20January%209,%202006.%20REUTERS/Lee%20Jae-Won

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped below $65 on Tuesday as the prospect of rising U.S. stockpiles calmed traders' nerves about possible supply interruptions from Iran.

U.S. light crude <CLc1> fell 44 cents to $64.67 a barrel by 1037 GMT, while Brent <LCOc1> traded down 42 cents to $62.91.

"What people are feeling is that Iran is a longer-term issue," said Justin Smirk, senior economist at Westpac. "The risk to supply is lying much further out, and is still somewhat unclear."

"The focus is on the now, and inventory rises continue to suggest an easing in tightness, not just week to week, but also now month to month," he added.

A Reuters poll of analysts predicted U.S. inventory data for last week would show a 1.6 million barrel rise in gasoline stocks and an 800,000 barrel build in crude.

U.S. gasoline futures <HUc1> fell a cent to $1.6342 a gallon as market confidence increased about buffer stocks ahead of the summer driving season.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. BP profit jumps on high oil

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=topNews&storyID=2006-02-07T102724Z_01_WLA7097_RTRUKOC_0_UK-ENERGY-BP-TOP.xml&archived=False

LONDON (Reuters) - BP posted a 26 percent surge in fourth-quarter replacement cost profit on Tuesday thanks to high oil prices, but weaker-than-expected results in refining and gas and power units meant the firm undershot forecasts and its shares sagged.

The world's second-largest listed oil firm by market value said replacement cost profit, which excludes changes in inventory values, was $4.432 billion (2.5 billion pounds).

Excluding a $553 million charge for non-operating items, mainly due to a notional, non-cash loss on North Sea gas contracts, BP's underlying profit was $4.985 billion, versus $4.765 billion for the last quarter of 2004.

A Reuters poll of eight analysts gave an average forecast of $5.75 billion for BP's fourth quarter replacement cost profit excluding exceptional items.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

16. Venezuela could divert oil sales and close US refineries

(AP) Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has stepped up threats to sell off his nation's oil refineries in the United States, but some oil experts argue a quick break with the key U.S. market would hurt Venezuela. Tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela escalated with the expulsion last week of a U.S. Embassy official accused of spying. In return, Washington expelled a Venezuelan official.

Chavez threatened over the weekend to sell off all of Venezuela-owned Citgo Petroleum Corp.'s refineries and divert U.S. oil exports to other countries. "I could easily order the closing of the refineries that we have in the United States," Chavez said Saturday in a speech to supporters. "I could easily sell the oil that we sell to the United States to other countries in the world ... (to) real friends and allies like China, India or Europe."

Chavez's threat comes amid jitters about a disruption in world oil supplies: Iran, OPEC's second-largest producer, has been referred to the U.N. Security Council over its nuclear intentions, while Nigeria has been wracked by violence. "The United States doesn't face many alternatives at this moment" and could face a hike in oil prices if forced to find replacements for Venezuelan imports, said Carlos Rossi, an economic adviser to the Venezuelan Hydrocarbons Association.
...

The South American country says it exports about half of its official production of 3.2 million barrels per day to the United States _ much of that refined by Houston-based Citgo and sold through its 15,000 retail gas stations. Finding alternatives to Citgo's refineries _ specially designed to refine Venezuela's heavy, highly sulfurous crude _ would be difficult, critics say. "If they sell these refineries, there are no other refineries in the world able to process Venezuelan crude, not in sufficient capacity," said Jose Toro Hardy, a Chavez critic and former director of the state oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA.
...

"You need refineries to sell oil," Rossi said. "The U.S. would feel the impact, but Venezuela would feel it much more."
....

The United States remains Venezuela's No. 1 buyer of oil. It relied on Venezuela for 10 percent of its oil imports in November, the latest month for which U.S. figures are available.

...more...

[AnneD]

47. Oh no,

I buy exclusively at Citgo. Best prices in town. I know that my $ goes to help Hugo Chavez be a thorn in Bush's side. I always have a big grin on my face when I pull out of the station.:evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

52. Oil prices fall below US$65 a barrel as Iran fears ease, U.S. winter stays

http://www.cbc.ca/cp/business/060207/b020714.html

LONDON (AP) - Crude oil prices declined Tuesday as traders' fears eased over possible disruptions to the Iranian oil supply linked to its nuclear ambitions.

U.S. inventory figures are also expected to send a bearish tone to the market, analysts said.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 45 cents to US$64.66 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. March Brent crude fell 44 cents to US$62.89 a barrel on London's ICE Futures exchange.

Nymex heating oil lost less than half a cent to US$1.7587 a gallon (3.8 liters), while gasoline declined a cent to US$1.6342 a gallon. Natural gas fell more than 17 cents to US$7.820 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Analysts said prices fell because the market had already factored in the risk to supply posed by Iran's nuclear standoff with the U.S. and other countries, and because of a milder-than-usual winter in the United States.

The International Atomic Energy Agency board of governors voted Saturday to report Iran to the U.N. Security Council, which can impose sanctions, over its nuclear program. Tehran responded by saying it would start full-scale uranium enrichment and bar surprise inspections of its facilities.

...more...

[UpInArms]

62. March Crude @ $64.15 bbl - March NatGas @ $7.90 mln btus

10:06am 02/07/06 MARCH CRUDE DROPS 96C, OR 1.5%, TO $64.15/BRL IN EARLY TRADE

10:06am 02/07/06 MARCH NATURAL GAS FALLS 9.5C, OR 1.2%, TO $7.90/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

71. March Crude @ $63.95 bbl

10:58am 02/07/06 MARCH CRUDE TAPS $63.80/BRL, LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JAN. 11

10:58am 02/07/06 MARCH CRUDE LAST DOWN $1.16, OR 1.8%, AT $63.95/BRL

[UpInArms]

83. Occidental profit jumps 55%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B0A6D8CF6%2D305A%2D4AA7%2D892F%2D558525EFFDCC%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Occidental Petroleum Corp's fourth-quarter earnings jumped a stronger-than-expected 55% on a combination of soaring oil and gas prices and record output, the company said Tuesday.

The Los Angeles oil giant (OXY) reported net income of $1.15 billion, or $2.84 a share, up from $742 million, or $1.86, in the year-earlier period.

Revenue rose 41% to $4.33 billion from $3.08 billion.

Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected the company to hand in earnings of $2.75 a share.

Occidental attributed much of the gain to a 4.8% rise in fourth-quarter oil and gas production, the company's highest ever, averaging 589,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day through the year's final three months.

For the year, Occidental racked up net of $5.28 billion, or $13.09 a share, compared with $2.57 billion, or $6.59, in 2004.

...more...

[UpInArms]

90. EIA Energy predictions:

12:44pm 02/07/06 NATURAL GAS DEMAND TO STAY NEAR '05 LEVEL IN '06: EIA

12:44pm 02/07/06 NATURAL GAS DEMAND TO RISE 2.3% IN '07: EIA

12:44pm 02/07/06 NATURAL-GAS PRICES TO AVG $8.87/MCF IN '06: EIA

12:44pm 02/07/06 NATURAL-GAS PRICES TO AVG $8.70/MCF IN '07: EIA

12:44pm 02/07/06 RETAIL GASOLINE PRICE TO AVG $2.45/GAL IN '06: EIA

12:44pm 02/07/06 RETAIL GASOLINE PRICE TO AVG $2.43/GAL IN '07: EIA

12:44pm 02/07/06 CRUDE PRICES TO AVG $65/BRL IN '06: EIA

12:44pm 02/07/06 CRUDE PRICES TO AVG $61/BRL IN '07: EIA

[UpInArms]

118. March Crude closes @ $63.09 bbl - March NatGas @ $7.858 mln btus

2:57pm 02/07/06 MARCH CRUDE CLOSES AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL THIS YEAR SO FAR

2:57pm 02/07/06 MARCH CRUDE DROPS $2.02, OR 3.1%, TO END AT $63.09/BRL

2:57pm 02/07/06 MARCH CRUDE LOW OF $63 IS LOWEST INTRADAY LEVEL SINCE JAN. 3

2:56pm 02/07/06 MARCH NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE LATE MAY

2:56pm 02/07/06 MARCH NATURAL GAS ENDS AT $7.858/MLN BTUS, DOWN 13.7C, OR 1.

[EuroObserver]

4. Tokyo: Nikkei 225 closed down 0.16%; TOPIX up 0.02%

Nikkei inches down as Nikon falls, Toyota eyed
TOKYO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The Nikkei average inched down 0.16 percent on Tuesday as investors sold firms whose quarterly earnings results failed to impress, such as Nikon Corp. (7731.T: Quote, Profile, Research).

But those with strong earnings, including Fujikura Ltd. (5803.T: Quote, Profile, Research), rose and Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.T: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's second-biggest auto maker, was flat ahead of its earnings announcement due after the market closes.

"External factors are out of the market's focus. Investors are now only interested in individual companies' earnings," said Susumu Abe, manager at Mito Securities' information and investment department. He added that Toyota's earnings could give the market a direction in coming days. "If Toyota unveils an outlook strong enough to impress, that would provide support to the market as a whole," he said.

The Nikkei <.N225> was down 26.24 points at 16,721.52 as of 0458 GMT. It had hit its highest close since August 2000 on Monday. The broader TOPIX index <.TOPX> was up 0.02 percent at 1,712.66.
...
Nikon fell 5.9 percent to 2,085 yen. The precision equipment maker said after the market closed on Monday that its quarterly profit more than tripled year-on-year and raised its full-year forecast by 18 percent, but the results were in line with a company announcement in late January. Nikon had risen over 20 percent since the announcement.

Fujikura, an electric wire and cable maker, jumped 7.1 percent to 1,276 yen after lifting its dividend payment and full-year earnings forecast.

Toyota was up 0.2 percent at 6,130 yen. Toyota is expected to post higher profits in the latest quarter as sales raced ahead in overseas markets and a weaker yen boosted earnings made abroad.

Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co. Ltd. (5706.T: Quote, Profile, Research) sank 7.3 percent to 884 yen as the non-ferrous metal producer's third-quarter earnings results announced a day earlier fell short of analysts' expectations.

Toshiba Corp. (6502.T: Quote, Profile, Research) dipped 0.4 percent to 741 yen after the company on Monday agreed to buy Westinghouse, the U.S. power plant arm of British Nuclear Fuels, for $5.4 billion to bolster its position in the world's resurgent nuclear power industry. Concern that the acquisition might strain Toshiba's financial standing had pulled the shares as low as 684 yen after Toshiba was selected last month as the preferred bidder for Westinghouse.

Steel stocks gained amid continued hopes for growing demand of quality products. The sector (.ISTEL.T: Quote, Profile, Research), up 1.5 percent, was also helped by speculation about an industry shakeup, which reemerged after a German newspaper reported that U.S. Steel Corp. (X.N: Quote, Profile, Research) could be a takeover target of European manufacturer Arcelor (CELR.PA: Quote, Profile, Research).

Sumitomo Metal Industries Ltd. (5405.T: Quote, Profile, Research), Japan's third-biggest steel maker, was up 2.4 percent at 508 yen and industry leader Nippon Steel Corp. (5401.T: Quote, Profile, Research) gained 0.7 percent to 438 yen. ...more...

[EuroObserver]

7. Japanese Foreign Exchange Reserves Rise

Japan's foreign exchange reserves rose $4.8 billion in January to a record high $851.67 billion, helped in large part by a stronger euro, the Finance Ministry said Tuesday. The increase in the nation's reserves, which includes convertible foreign currencies, gold and International Monetary Fund special drawing rights, follows a $3.63 billion rise in December and a $1.48 billion increase in November.
...

Japan's foreign exchange reserves have shown only minor changes, mostly in line with exchange rate fluctuations, since Tokyo stopped its campaign of currency-market intervention in March 2004.

Japan was also the largest holder of reserves for the 74th straight month in November with $831.08 billion, followed by China, according to the latest data available from the IMF. Data from the IMF differ slightly from those issued by the ministry due to differences in methods used to calculate the value of gold.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

8. East Asia: markets steady

STOCKS NEWS ASIA-Markets subdued, eyes on earnings
HONG KONG, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Asian stock markets were subdued on Tuesday following a lacklustre lead from Wall Street and as investors awaited earnings results from major firms such as Toyota Motor Corp.

At 0030 GMT, Tokyo stocks had edged 0.02 percent higher as gains in consumer credit firm Credit Saison and microchip testing equipment maker Advantest Corp. helped counter weakness in top casual wear chain Fast Retailing and industrial robot maker Fanuc Ltd.

"The market will be bolstered by the yen ... but investors won't aggressive push prices further up," said Yutaka Miura, deputy manager of the equity information department at Shinko Securities.
...

South Korea's benchmark KOSPI shed 0.12 percent following a 0.61 percent gain on Monday, as auto maker Kia Motors, Woori Financial Group and Korea Electric Power Co. (KEPCO) lost ground.

In Australia, falls in some of the major banks, including Commonwealth Bank, offset modest gains in global miners BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, dragging the S&P/ASX 200 index down 0.18 percent.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

India stocks are in demand

MUMBAI (Reuters) - It's hard to get value for money in the India stock market now, but a flood of investor money and bumper corporate profits make for a good long-term investment, the chief investment officer of one of India's top 10 fund managers said on Monday.

"There is nothing cheap in the market now, but a long-term investor can still get an average of 12 to 13 percent return over a three-year period," Rajat Jain from Principal Pnb Asset Management Co Ltd. told the Reuters India Summit.
...

The main BSE index on Monday touched a new high of 10,002.83 on Monday, driven by strong domestic and foreign funds' buying. It tripled since May 2003.

Foreign funds have bought more than $1 billion of shares in 2006, on top of a record $10.7 billion in 2005. Local mutual funds have been even more bullish, raising nearly $2 billion in the past two months.

Investors who shunned Indian mutual funds after a stock market slump in 2001 are flocking back as stock indices have powered to new highs on a bullish economic growth outlook.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

5. Europe: markets open mixed

FTSE set to open higher
LONDON (Reuters) - The index of top shares is set to open higher on Tuesday, although results from a oil major BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) may provide further direction. Financial bookmakers predict the FTSE 100 <.FTSE> share index will open between 10 and 14 points higher, adding to a 13-point gain won on Monday. BP is expected to post bumper fourth quarter and full year earnings thanks to high oil and gas prices. ...more...

Positive start expected for European markets
(FT) European equity markets were set for modest gain on Tuesday helped by bid speculation in the banking and telecoms sectors. Spread betting companies were calling for the FTSE 100, Germand Dax and French CAC 40 to open between 5 and 16 points higher. ...more...
---

Swiss SMI down -0.08% at 7833.62 Zurich 09:04:49 CET
Xetra Dax 30 opens up 21.4 points at 5,688.21 Frankfurt 09:06 CET
CAC 40 opens up 0.3% at 4,951.57 Paris 09:04 CET
FTSE 100 opens up 0.1% at 5,780.7 London 08:03 GMT
---

FTSE 100 dips, hobbled by fall in oil major BP
LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Britain's index of leading shares failed to make headway on Thursday, held back by a fall in shares in market heavyweight BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) after the oil major disappointed investors by missing earnings forecasts owing to weaker results in its refining unit than expected.

Shares in BP were the top blue-chip fallers, down 2.6 percent at 648p, taking 13 points off the leading index. One dealer at a leading bank in London also highlighted a weaker growth outlook as another concern.

By 0825 GMT the FTSE 100 share index <.FTSE> was down 1.7 points at 5,770.7. Before BP announced results, dealers had forecast an opening gain of between 10 and 14 points.

...more...

European stocks rise on earnings, BP slips
LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - European shares ticked up on Tuesday thanks to upbeat earnings and consolidation hopes in the telecoms sector, but oil major BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) slipped after missing forecasts.

Dutch telecom group KPN (KPN.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) added 5 percent after reporting profit above analyst estimates, while Portugal Telecom (PTC.LS: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 20 percent after conglomerate Sonae's (SON.LS: Quote, Profile, Research) 10.7-billion-euro offer. Sonae shares were suspended.

By 0820 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> was 0.1 percent up at 1,322.95, still below a 4-1/2 year high of 1,337 hit last week.

BP disappointed however after a 26 percent surge in fourth-quarter replacement cost profit missed forecasts with refining results hit.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

12. BP profit jumps on high oil price

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - BP Plc (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) reported a 26 percent surge in fourth-quarter replacement cost profit to $4.432 billion on Tuesday thanks to high oil prices. The world's second-largest listed oil firm by market value said in a statement the replacement cost profit, which excludes changes in inventory values, would have been higher but for a $553 million charge for non-operating items, mainly due to a notional, non-cash loss on North Sea gas contracts.

Excluding such one-offs, BP's underlying profit was $4.985 billion, versus $4.765 billion for the last quarter of 2004.
...

Europe's biggest company by market value said it had replenished reserves by 100 percent on a UK reporting basis and 95 percent under SEC rules which take account of year-end prices, giving it a proven reserve base of over 18 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent at end-2005.

On top of proven reserves, BP also added nearly 2 billion new barrels to its non-proven resource base last year, taking it to a total of 41 billion barrels, of which the company expects to convert some 11 billion barrels into proven reserves by 2010. BP said that assuming an oil price of $40 a barrel, output this year would be between 4.1 million and 4.2 million barrels a day.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

38. European stock markets mostly fall

LONDON (AFP) - European stock markets mainly dropped, with London's FTSE 100 index hit by negative earnings news from British energy giant BP, dealers said.

London's FTSE 100 index of leading shares slid 0.49 percent to 5,744.10 points, in Paris the CAC 40 shed 0.31 percent to 4,919.05 points and Frankfurt's DAX 30 also lost 0.31 percent to 5,649.13. The DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index of leading eurozone shares decreased 0.41 percent to 3,667.38 points. The euro stood at 1.1973 dollars.
...

In London trading Tuesday, the share price of BP fell 2.40 percent to 649.5 pence as investors focused on the energy major's fourth-quarter earnings, deemed poor by market analysts. Excluding the value of its crude oil inventories and non-operating charges, net profit rose to 4.895 billion dollars, undershooting analysts' consensus forecasts of 5.6 billion. However BP posted also a near 31-percent rise in annual profits to 22.34 billion dollars (18.64 billion euros), owing largely to record high oil prices.

BP's peer Royal Dutch Shell saw its 'A' shares slip 0.81 percent to 1,843 pence in London, one week after it revealed record net profits for 2005. In Paris, French oil group Total shed 1.12 percent to 221.3 euros.

...more...

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 90.07 Change -0.21 (-0.23%)

Dollar falls sharply vs. yen

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- The dollar dropped sharply against the yen Tuesday on speculation the Bank of Japan may alter its monetary policy sooner than expected.

The dollar was recently down 0.75% at 117.96 yen, having fallen back from Monday's highs over 119 yen.

Recent comments from Bank of Japan officials acknowledging improvements in economic fundamentals have led some people to speculate a change could come as soon as a meeting on Thursday, said Russell Bloom, senior currency analyst at IFR Forex Watch.

The market was heavily short on yen, said Bloom. So the speculation resulted in "a massive unwinding of yen shorts," he said.

Any change of policy is expected to involve the Bank of Japan terminating its "quantitative easing policy," under which the bank is targeting a current account reserve of 30 trillion to 35 trillion yen.

The dollar recently hit a seven-week high against the Japanese currency after January U.S. job figures pointed toward declining unemployment and increased wage inflation, conditions that could help persuade the Federal Reserve to continue lifting rates.

...more...

Reissuance of 30-Yr Bond is Propping Up the Dollar

The US dollar extended Friday’s gains thanks to some positive comments from Fed President Fisher. As we begin the new week, the market is very optimistic about interest rates with the Fed fund futures contracts now putting the odds for a March hike at 90 percent and another hike in May or June at 60 percent. Confirming US Treasury Secretary Snow’s recent comments, Fisher who is a non-voting member of the FOMC this year, believed that the dismal 1.1 percent growth that we saw in the fourth quarter will most likely be revised higher. If this is really the case, then some of current dollar optimism is justified. Meanwhile President Bush announced a $2.7 trillion budget for the 2007 fiscal year which begins in October. In his projections, the deficit is expected to shrink from $360 billion predicted for this fiscal year to $355 billion. Although the Bush administration still has plans to halve the budget deficit by 2009, the fear that interest expense could increase due to rising financing costs has some believing that the projections may be a bit too optimistic. One of the market’s major focuses this week will be Thursday’s $14 billion dollar reissuance of 30-year bonds, which has been necessitated by budget deficits. Strong demand expected at the auction could keep the dollar bid with one wrinkle - the demand for longer dated bonds has also caused a deeper yield curve inversion with the 2-10 spread widening to 3.3 basis points. This has perked up the radar for some recession watchers. However, we know that the market is very much siding with the dollar at the moment, since it managed to shrug off any geopolitical risk that could be stemming from the IAEA’s recommendation of Iran to the UN Security Council about its nuclear program.

...more...

[54anickel]

79. Psychology of a Falling Dollar 2/07/06

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=536

Given a current account deficit in excess of 6% of gross domestic product (GDP), many fear the US dollar must decline. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, policy makers disagreed as to the severity of the risk, its causes and cures. In a nutshell, the United States does not export enough to the rest of the world to balance its own appetite for cheap Asian imports. The American consumer spends too much and saves too little. As a result, dollars are leaving the US in return for goods and services. Unless those dollars are reinvested in US denominated assets at a rate in excess of $2 billion a day, the dollar will decline.

According to the Financial Times, the top international affairs official at the US Treasury warned that if the US were to instigate policies to rein in the consumer, it would plunge the US into a deep depression; fallout to other countries would also be severe. While we have explained in the past why the US has no interest in a consumer slowdown, this is the first time we hear the US Treasury warn about the risk of a depression.

To adjust the current account deficit without a severe adjustment in the value of the dollar, the rest of the world could also spend more and save less. While China’s savings rate of 30%-40% of disposable income is likely to come down at some point, we doubt that the rest of the world can or even wants to adopt American spending habits; Americans now have a negative savings rate. Not only is much of the world economy dependent on the US economy, the US economy also dwarfs many of the emerging economies where a pickup in consumption could be expected.

In many of our analyses we traditionally focus on the fundamental pressures on the dollar, including the current account deficit described above. While fundamentals may drive the long-term view, short-term moves tend to be influenced by psychological factors and perceptions on supply and demand. From time to time, we see an argument why the current account deficit does not matter, but most of these “fundamental” arguments are about as good as explanations in 1999 of why the economy had entered a new era.

One reason why so many do not pay attention to fundamentals is that the daily flow of information makes it difficult to see the big picture; instead, analysts revert to trend analysis. Why bother about the dollar when it has “always” been “cyclical”? The US consumer has “always” spent too much, why worry now? Why bother about the dollar if your expenses are also in dollars? And why bother about it given that it is in the world’s interest that the US consumes what the world produces.

more...

[AnneD]

89. At least he didn't totally blame the consumer but.....

I refuse to take the blame for most of the deficit. That 'off budget' wars, the refusal of this administration to spread the burden (repeal tax cuts), and encouraging the exportation of American jobs overseas has more to do with the deficit than my puny credit card debt that I am currently PAYING OFF. I hate to be wishing for ill but Lord help me I hope it is on Dimson's watch.

[UpInArms]

9. Coke quarterly earnings fall 28%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BA2473779%2D5EA9%2D4C84%2D9B6D%2D0D07D63C5D81%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Coca-Cola Co. reported a less-than-forecast 28% decline in fourth-quarter profit, and its 7% top-line growth also surpassed estimates.

Before the start of trading Tuesday, Coke (KO) said it earned $864 million, or 36 cents a share, with revenue rising to $5.55 billion.

Excluding 10 cents of charges related to taxes and the repatriation of foreign earnings, it would've earned 46 cents a share

The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call had been for Coke to earn 45 cents a share on revenue of $5.4 billion.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

29. so like Google if only they didn't have to pay taxes then

they would have hit the numbers i guess we need to get rid of corporate taxes. :puke:

[UpInArms]

32. here's how the corporations don't contribute

[RawMaterials]

35. I know I like pictures but that just gross

:grr:

[UpInArms]

10. General Motors board votes to halve dividend-paper

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-07T112707Z_01_L07341074_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-DIVIDEND-UPDATE-2.XML

FRANKFURT, Feb 7 (Reuters) - General Motors' (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) board of directors has voted to halve the struggling U.S. automaker's $2 per share annual dividend, industry paper Automotive News reported on Tuesday, citing sources close to the board.

A spokesman for General Motors Europe called the report speculative, noting that Monday's board meeting was to decide on the group's dividend but that the company had not yet made any announcement on the decision.

"This is Automotive News speculation at this point," he said.

GM later said it would issue a statement at 1330 GMT and hold a news conference at 1400 GMT. It gave no other details.

<snip>

Cutting the dividend could help management show labour that shareholders are being asked to make sacrifices at a time when GM is cutting thousands of manufacturing jobs and closing plants.

GM, the world's largest carmaker by volume, lost $8.6 billion in 2005 as it struggled with high labour and raw material costs, loss of U.S. market share to foreign rivals and sluggish sales of sport utility vehicles -- its biggest generator of profits.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. GM Press Announcement:

8:37am 02/07/06 GM PAYOUT CUT REDUCES CASH OUTLAY BY $565M ANNUALLY

8:37am 02/07/06 GM DECLARES QUARTERLY DIV 25C, PAY 3/10, RECORD 2/16

8:36am 02/07/06 GM SALARIED RETIREES MAY CONTRIBUTE MORE TO HEALTH CARE

8:34am 02/07/06 GM CAPS CONTRIBUTION TO SALARIED RETIREE HEALTH CARE

8:32am 02/07/06 GM HEALTH-CARE REVISION TO CUT LIABILITY BY $4.8B PRETAX

8:31am 02/07/06 GM RESTRUCTURES U.S. SALARIED PENSION PLAN

8:31am 02/07/06 GM HALVES COMPENSATION FOR OUTSIDE DIRECTORS

8:32am 02/07/06 GM REVISES SALARIED RETIREES' HEALTH CARE PLAN

8:31am 02/07/06 GM HALVES DIVIDEND

[54anickel]

46. Forbes articles states "trim exec pay", but gives no details.

Update 1: GM Cuts Dividend in Half, Trims Exec Pay

http://www.forbes.com/business/services/feeds/ap/2006/02/07/ap2505712.html

General Motors Corp., struggling with billions of dollars of losses in North America, announced Tuesday it is cutting in half its yearly dividend to $1 a share and reducing the salaries of its chairman and senior leadership.

snip>

The announcements came a day after a top aide to billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian was elected to GM's board. Last month, Jerome York outlined tough measures to bring the company back to profitability, including halving GM's dividend, cutting executive pay and setting profitability goals.

"These are difficult decisions that involve sacrifices by our employees, stockholders, retirees and the senior leadership team," GM Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner said in a statement.

"However, we are confronting a dramatic change in our industry and in the global competitive environment, and that requires us to look for additional ways to reduce financial risk and improve our competitiveness for the long term."


edit to add:

Guess Lutz lost this argument from Jan 12

GM's Lutz: Don't cut exec pay

http://www.detnews.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060112/AUTO01/601120365/1148

General Motors Corp. -- contrary to suggestions by Kirk Kerkorian aide Jerry York -- is moving as swiftly as it can to turn around its ailing auto business and does not need to slash executive salaries or ax brands, a top GM executive said Wednesday.

"I have to say I gave at the office," GM Vice Chairman and product chief Bob Lutz said, referring to what he estimates is a 60 percent drop in his salary after company losses forced him to forgo a bonus and rendered his stock options worthless.

Lutz asserted that cutting executive pay could trigger a talent drain at a time when the automaker needs to marshal all of its resources.
"Here's where people get this wrong: They say, 'Why are executives paid so much? You have to ask: Why are professional athletes paid so much?' "

snip>

GM has frozen the salaries of top executives the last two years and bonuses have been cut to reflect the automaker's falling profits.

In 2004, Wagoner's compensation package included a $2.2 million salary -- the same as 2003 -- a $2.5 million bonus and 400,000 stock options valued at the time at $5.1 million. In 2003, he received a $2.9 million bonus and 500,000 stock options.

Lutz and John Devine, GM's former chief financial officer, received cash compensation totaling $4.4 million and $4.2 million, respectively, for 2004. In 2003, they each received about $6.4 million. The cash compensation included base salaries of $1.55 million each in 2003 and 2004, plus bonuses. York also called for GM to lower the pay of its outside directors, which receive $200,000 a year, with $140,000 deferred in restricted common stock units.

more...

[loudsue]

53. So THAT'S the new meme? Corporate execs are like "athletes"?

These guys have to come up with some kind of better spin than that. They're worthless.

:kick:

[UpInArms]

105. GM slashes execs' salaries, but total pay unclear

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-02-07T181517Z_01_N07220134_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-SALARY.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp.'s <GM.N> decision to slash top executives' salaries by up to 50 percent will undoubtedly save the struggling automaker money, but it is unclear whether the executives will see similar reductions in their total compensation for 2006.

The world's largest automaker, battered by rising labor and materials costs and declining market share, on Tuesday said it will halve Chief Executive Rick Wagoner's salary, which was $2.2 million in 2004.

It will also cut the salaries of Vice Chairmen John Devine, Frederick "Fritz" Henderson and Bob Lutz by 30 percent each, and of General Counsel Thomas Gottschalk by 10 percent. No top executives are to get salary increases, bonuses or long-term incentives for 2005. Directors' pay will fall by half.

"Wagoner's salary cut is substantial," said Brian Foley, president of Brian Foley & Co. in White Plains, New York and an executive compensation specialist. "The fact the board actually cut its own compensation 50 percent is significant. You don't see that often."

He added, though, that "there is no apparent restriction as to what the executives could be awarded in 2006 in the form of cash- or stock-based incentives."

...more...

[UpInArms]

114. GM, GMAC bonds slip as Moody's casts doubt on GMAC sale

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B2E2CCB43%2D88F1%2D4872%2D82F9%2DF8C7B99AFD8B%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Bonds issued by General Motors Corp. (GM) and financing arm General Motors Acceptance Corp. slid Tuesday afternoon after a ratings agency expressed doubt about prospects for a GMAC stake sale.

GMAC's 8% notes due 2031 fell two points to 97 cents on the dollar, according to MarketAxess, an electronic trading platform for corporate bonds. GM's 8 3/8% notes due 2033 slipped more than a point, to 72 3/4.

In a statement, Moody's Investors Service said the amount of time that has elapsed since GM announced its intention to shed a majority stake in GMAC may be a sign of trouble. The time that has gone by since the October sale announcement "suggests the difficulty of successfully completing the transaction," Moody's analysts said.

The partial divestiture was intended to return GMAC to investment grade status - crucial for the company's cost of funding and efficient operation.

Market participants put significant stock in comments from ratings agencies, because they are generally kept up to date by issuers on progress in sale plans and other major events.

Ratings agencies have emphasized that in order for GMAC to end up investment grade, the best scenario is a purchase by a highly rated financial institution with a commitment to auto finance. In recent weeks, however, market participants have predicted the deal may include both a bank and a private equity company, a possible indication of a less straightforward cash deal.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. AIG's $1.6 Bln Settlement to Include Bid-Rigging, Person Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aIo39Z7JREqw&refer=us

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. will be the first insurer to settle an inquiry into bid-rigging when it pays about $1.6 billion to resolve state and federal probes of accounting and sales practices, said a person familiar with the negotiations.

AIG, the world's largest insurer, will compensate victims of price fixing as part of an accord with the Securities and Exchange Commission and New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, said the person, who declined to be identified because the talks aren't completed. The accord also will resolve allegations the company manipulated earnings with improper reinsurance contracts.

Investigations of AIG led to last year's ouster of Chief Executive Officer Maurice ``Hank'' Greenberg, who ran the New York-based company for 38 years. An agreement, which the person said may be announced as early as this week, may be the largest in financial-services history. It will include payments to shareholders, policyholders and state worker compensation funds.

``The finalization of a settlement would clear away many of the uncertainties surrounding AIG,'' said Fox-Pitt, Kelton Inc. analyst Gary Ransom, who has an ``outperform'' rating on the stock. The payment would cost AIG between 37 cents and 57 cents a share, depending on how much is tax deductible, he said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Toll Brothers cuts fiscal 2006 home delivery view

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-07T124129Z_01_N0713256_RTRIDST_0_CONSTRUCTION-TOLL-OUTLOOK-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday further reduced its forecast for home sales in fiscal 2006, as the new orders for the first quarter fell 29 percent on slumping demand.

Toll also said delays in obtaining inspections, certificates of occupancy and utility hookups forced it to cut its outlook to sales of 9,200 and 9,900 homes during the fiscal year ending on Oct. 31, from a previously lowered view of 9,500 and 10,200 homes.

New orders during the quarter fell to 1,572 from 2,209, while the value of the contracts declined 21 percent to $1.16 billion.

"We believe the sharper decline in orders relative to peers is a function of the more pronounced slowing at Toll's high price point and Toll's market exposure," Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim wrote in a research note.

California, Phoenix, Arizona and Washington D.C. are Toll's largest markets, he said.

...more...

(edited to add info and updated link)

[EuroObserver]

15. LME copper, Shanghai futures hit new records

TAIPEI, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Copper prices charged to a new all-time high on Tuesday, followed on the heels by aluminium and copper futures in Shanghai as Chinese investors caught up with global price moves while they were on holiday.

London Metal Exchange three-month copper <MCU3> shot to a new record high of $5,100 per tonne, before retreating a touch by 0345 GMT to around $5,080/$5,090 as Chinese buyers tried to catch up with a surge fuelled by investment fund buying. Copper closed at $5,060 in London on Monday.

But with gains in some Shanghai copper and aluminium futures contracts now exceeding rises seen on the LME last week, some traders said further advances could be limited.
...
LME copper has risen more than 5 percent, or $255, since Jan. 27, the last trading day before the Lunar New Year break in China. Yet key Shanghai copper contracts <0#SCF:> have risen by more than 7 percent or 3,340 yuan ($415) in the last two sessions.
...
LME aluminium <MAL3> for delivery in three months rose to $2,675/2,680, a new 17-1/2-year high.

"I'm a little cautious, as London prices at the $5,000 mark is a very important price level. I think at this price volatility will emerge," Li said.

Bullish metals prices fed into mining sector stocks. Shares in BHP Billiton Ltd./Plc (BHP.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) (BLT.L: Quote, Profile, Research) the world's top miner, were up 0.2 percent, while Rio Tinto Ltd./Plc (RIO.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) (RIO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) gained 0.6 percent.

...more...

[JNelson6563]

17. Nice work UIA!

I hope to do so well when it's my turn.

Watching CNBC and I guess I will never cease to be amazed at what Bushites those talking heads are. No matter what factual info you bring that is critical of the boy kings policies they defend. Pathetic.

Will check back.

Thanks for filling in UIA. This thread is so important in helping DUers know what's going on in the financial world.

:toast:

Julie

[UpInArms]

19. G'morning Julie!

:donut::donut:

Glad to 'see' you here this a.m.! :hi:

Doing the opening post makes me miss Ozy! I never seem to manage to get it right the first time :blush:

The Dimson's blueprint for disaster (aka budget) will definitely be "talked up" by the know-nothings that get paid to shill.

The Treasury auctions this week should be interesting!

[JNelson6563]

23. Treasury action

The Treasury auctions this week should be interesting!

Ain't it the truth! I've watch in amazement as the 2yr. yield creeped higher until it is now holding at 4.61 while the 10 yr is at 4.53. Some weeks ago when the 2 yr. matched and then passed 10 yr yield by one basis point it was all the talk. Now, with an 8 pt spread, n'ary a word.

Maybe it's because of the auctions. We want those to go well, afterall, or our gubberment will run out of $$.

I haven't seen Rick Santelli yet so maybe he'll comment, will try to catch him in between the stuff I have to do. Will be babysitting 4 yr old niece in an hour so need to catch the Great Santelli before that. :-)

Julie

[EuroObserver]

40. Good morning and thanks

for the thread. Looks like a good slack day to take off prior to those auctions...

[UpInArms]

42. G'morning to you EO!

I'm always glad to read your posts and see your insight from across the ocean!

:hi:

Is it too late to offer up some :donut:?

[AnneD]

50. Wonder why there hasn't been a reporter on the take scandal...

like there was for the No Child Left Alive. Just the way this stuff is reported you know in your gut some of these guys are on the take. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

18. JP Morgan: Dismissed Salesman Faces Fraud Charge

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/07/business/07currency.html?ex=1139979600&en=4c0e213634c3301f&ei=5099&partner=TOPIXNEWS

A former foreign exchange salesman at J. P. Morgan Chase & Company has been arrested for making unauthorized trades that resulted in a $6 million loss for the bank, prosecutors said yesterday.

The salesman, Terrence J. Gumbs, who worked for the bank for 17 years and was on its New York foreign exchange desk for 9 years, faces one count of wire fraud for selling about 385 million euros ($463 million) on behalf of a client without the client's permission, according to a criminal complaint unsealed yesterday.

<snip>

According to the complaint filed in Federal District Court in Manhattan, Mr. Gumbs, 36, entered in the bank's computer system a limit order to sell about 385 million euros on behalf of a client on Dec. 29, 2005. J. P. Morgan's Tokyo desk executed the transaction on Jan. 3.

Mr. Gumbs later told investigators that he had made the trade in an effort to offset $300,000 in earlier losses, according to the complaint.

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

20. Bush Spending Plan Sparks Protest

http://www.columbian.com/news/APStories/AP02072006news142672.cfm

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Bush, constrained by wars, hurricanes and exploding budget deficits, has sent Congress a 2007 spending plan that is garnering howls of pain from farmers, teachers, doctors and a wide array of other groups with special interests.

<snip>

Sen. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., called Bush's proposed cuts in education and health "scandalous" while Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, said she was "disappointed and even surprised" at the extent of the administration's proposed cuts in Medicaid and Medicare.

Given the level of congressional frustration, administration witnesses, led by Treasury Secretary John Snow, were expected to face a tough sales job before various congressional committees on Tuesday.

Bush's spending blueprint for the 2007 budget year that begins Oct. 1 would provide large increases for the military and homeland security but would trim spending in the one-sixth of the budget that covers the rest of discretionary spending. Nine Cabinet agencies would see outright reductions with the biggest percentage cuts occurring in the departments of Transportation, Justice and Agriculture.

<snip>

The administration's new budget projects that this year's deficit will soar to an all-time high of $423 billion, surpassing the old mark in dollar terms of $412 billion set in 2004, as the costs of rebuilding from last year's devastating hurricanes and the continuing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan push spending higher.

...more...

[UpInArms]

37. Dimson's sneaky backdoor trap for the middle-class

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC93D7A5E%2DC0DF%2D453B%2DAD34%2D24BE6087F994%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that, unless altered, the AMT will affect 33 million taxpayers by 2016. AMT revenues will increase almost six-fold over the next 10 years, rising from around $14 billion in 2006 to $81 billion in 2016.

The administration's call for a one-year AMT relief extension isn't "honest accounting," said Chris Edwards, director of tax policy for the libertarian Cato Institute.

"I think if they're in favor of AMT relief, which I think the administration is, they should have included the full accounting for it throughout the five-year budget projections," he said.

In 2011, an unfettered AMT is expected to bring in around $72 billion in revenues, Edwards notes. Fixing AMT would boost Bush's fiscal 2011 budget deficit forecast from $205 billion to $277 billion.

No mention of war

The Concord Coalition, a bipartisan group that advocates a balanced federal budget, complained that the AMT omission combined with a lack of estimates of long-term costs for military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan significantly undermined the administration's budget request.

"Neither is a realistic assumption and neither is consistent with administration policy. The cost of continuing the war efforts and providing AMT relief would add nearly $500 billion to the deficit over the next five years and more than $100 billion in 2009 alone," the group said in its analysis of the 2007 budget plan.

[loudsue]

57. Hey, UIA! Thanks for doing the SMW thread! And...I've got a question:

What income level is the AMT targeting, and how come so many people are caught up in it? Is it for earned income, or for passive income?

Thanks in advance. :hi:

:kick:

[UpInArms]

61. Hiya loudsue!

I wish there were simple answers to those questions!

It appears that lots of people without high incomes can get caught by the AMT -

Here's a "primer" page regarding how it works:

Alternative Minimum Tax 101

A brief overview of the alternative minimum tax (AMT).

The alternative minimum tax (or AMT) is an extra tax some people have to pay on top of the regular income tax. The original idea behind this tax was to prevent people with very high incomes from using special tax benefits to pay little or no tax. But for various reasons the AMT reaches more people each year, including some people who don't have very high income and some people who don't have lots of special tax benefits. Congress is studying ways to correct this problem, but until it does, almost anyone is a potential target for this tax.

The name comes from the way the tax works. The AMT provides an alternative set of rules for calculating your income tax. In theory these rules determine minimum amount of tax that someone with your income should be required to pay. If you're already paying at least that much because of the "regular" income tax, you don't have to pay AMT. But if your regular tax falls below this minimum, you have to make up the difference by paying alternative minimum tax.

Q: How do I know if I have to worry about the AMT?

A: Unfortunately, there's no good answer to this common question — which is one of the big problems with the AMT. You can have AMT liability because of one big item on your tax return, or because of a combination of many small items. Some things that can contribute to AMT liability are mundane items that appear on many tax returns, such as a deduction for state income tax or interest on a second mortgage, or even your personal and dependency exemptions. See Top 10 Things that Cause AMT Liability.

If you use computer software to prepare your tax return, the program may be able to do the AMT calculation. If you're preparing a return by hand, the only way to know for sure is to fill out Form 6251 — a laborious process.

<snip>

Example 1: Your regular income tax is $47,000. When you calculate your tax using the AMT rules, you come up with $39,000. That's lower than the regular tax, so you don't pay any AMT.

Example 2: Your regular income tax is $47,000. When you calculate your tax using the AMT rules, you come up with $58,000. You have to pay $11,000 of AMT on top of the $47,000 of regular income tax.

If you're paying attention, you've probably noticed that the total amount of tax you pay in Example 2 is equal to the tax calculated under the AMT: $58,000. But it's important to note that you actually pay $47,000 of regular tax plus $11,000 of AMT, as we'll see below.

...lots more...

[loudsue]

68. Thanks, UIA. It is pretty confusing, it looks like.

Sounds like it kinda sucks if anyone at any income level can get hit by it. Why don't they just say people that make megamillions have to pay it? (rhetorical question)

I just hate paying taxes to a republican-run country. Knowing my taxes are all going to homeland security and the military, or Halliburton, instead of bringing up the health & welfare of my fellow citizens or the infrastructure, just sucks.

:kick:

[54anickel]

69. Yep, it's a convulted nightmare and a mess to figure out. The starting

point is your Adjusted Gross Income, so you can't even begin to take a guess until you've computed your tax return to that point, that's the entire first page of Form 1040 including your Itemized Deductions from Schedule A. I believe it's those Itemized Deductions that the AMT was originally designed around.

Then there's a worksheet to fill out to find out if you even need to fill out the AMT form 6251. Of course there are exceptions to using the worksheet as well - if you have any of these exceptions you have to fill out and file Form 6251 regardless of whether or not you owe the tax because you have to prove to the IRS that you don't owe it. The one exception that could catch a lot of "ordinary folks" is the Interest paid on a home mortgage NOT used to buy, build, or substantially improve your home read that as a home equity loan. (I don't think the IRS would buy the argument that your shiny new SUV, boat, etc parked in the driveway improves your home's curb appeal). ;-)

See the CAUTION section of the link below for a listing of the exceptions.

Here's a link to the worksheet with some instructions.

http://www.amtadvisor.com/AMTtest.html

[UpInArms]

72. SnowJob want to keep the AMT

SnowJob: Lower tax rates on cap gains, dividends most important

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)-- Extending lower tax rates on capital gains and dividends is more important than extending relief from the alternative minimum tax, though the Bush administration wants to do both, Treasury Secretary John Snow told the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday. "I think that lower tax rates on dividends and capital gains more broadly benefit average Americans than AMT relief," Snow said. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., disagreed, arguing that most medium- and lower-income Americans already receive much of their investment income tax-free.

[54anickel]

86. Of course he does, and for 2 reasons. The first is in your post #80

And while Bush's budget includes making the tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 permanent—some, like the repeal of the estate tax, are due to expire in 2010 — it counts on revenues from some unlikely sources. One of the biggest is the so-called Alternative Minimum Tax, which was designed many years ago to keep the rich from using deductions and other loopholes to get away with paying too little tax. But because of inflation, millions of middle class Americans have now crept into the AMT zone — especially in high-tax states where state and local taxes are not deductible under the AMT — meaning that they'll have to pay additional taxes. (The IRS has a calculator to let you figure out if you're in the AMT).

The second is that as more and more middle class Americans get caught in this trap, the more support there will be for over-hauling the tax code. They'll be able to take away those pesky deductions for mortgage interest and local property taxes (since people will see those as causing their AMT delimma). They'll call for that consumption tax and people will buy into it. It will start with no tax on "necessities" so people will tend to think it will be like a luxury tax mainly hitting "them rich bastards". Then, just like local sales tax, the list of taxable items will expand.

[UpInArms]

80. Bush's Budget Tricks - $$$ for "Healthy Marriages"????

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1157175,00.html

In any case, some of the entitlement cuts are illusory. For instance, the Bush budget strangely projects $4 billion in oil leases for drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge as an entitlement cut. But Congress didn't approve ANWR drilling in the current budget and no one's counting on it passing this year. And the budget also includes $5 billion in cuts of agricultural subsidies, very similar to the ones Bush pushed last year to no avail. All said, Bushies are expecting a $423 billion budget deficit for the current fiscal year, up from their recent estimates of $341 billion, the highest ever in nominal terms — although, as the White House is happy to point out, not as a percentage of the budget. By Bush's own estimates, the deficit would decline until $189 billion in 2009 and then soar largely because of entitlement expenditures.

Beyond deficits, Bush may also have to answer for what is not being axed in the current budget. Funding for the Iraq and Afghanistan wars are mostly excluded from the budget. Instead it will be offered in "supplemental" or add-on spending requests, along with additional funding for Hurricane Katrina relief. Bush's Budget Director, Joshua Bolten, told reporters that he expects that the White House will request another $70 billion this year for Iraq. "This is a very expensive proposition," the former Goldman Sachs executive said of the wars. But the true number may well be higher because estimating costs of the Iraq War have been notoriously unreliable; back in 2003, the Administration thought Iraqi oil revenues would cover much of the wartime spending.

And while Bush's budget includes making the tax cuts enacted in 2001 and 2003 permanent—some, like the repeal of the estate tax, are due to expire in 2010 — it counts on revenues from some unlikely sources. One of the biggest is the so-called Alternative Minimum Tax, which was designed many years ago to keep the rich from using deductions and other loopholes to get away with paying too little tax. But because of inflation, millions of middle class Americans have now crept into the AMT zone — especially in high-tax states where state and local taxes are not deductible under the AMT — meaning that they'll have to pay additional taxes. (The IRS has a calculator to let you figure out if you're in the AMT).

<snip>

In the coming days, all of Washington will pore over the budget to see what got whacked and what got more dough. Already Democrats are bashing Bush for eliminating a food assistance program for low-income seniors — though the Administration says it merely wants to move the Commodity Supplemental Food Program into the Food Stamps program. And some will question why there's $150 million in the budget to promote healthy marriages and fatherhood training. The partisan bickering is no different from any other traditional Washington spat — it's just that the stakes are a lot higher.

[AnneD]

91. Healthy marriage and fatherhood training translated from Bushspeak...

women, unable to have access to birth control have more babies (healthy of course). Fatherhood training refers to dad's military training as there are no other jobs available to support his enlarging family. Hope that clears up that misconception. :spray::rofl:

[UpInArms]

111. Bush 2007 budget quietly omits impact of policies on deficit

President George W. Bush's fiscal year 2007 budget quietly omits a table included in previous years which lays out the impact of the Administration's proposed policies on the deficit, RAW STORY has learned.



The image above shows the table of contents for the summary tables of the 2006 and 2007 fiscal year budgets proposed by President Bush. The 2006 summary includes "S-12, Impact of Budget Policy"; the 2007 does not. All other categories have been retained.

The missing table was first discovered by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. Its omission -- a single table among thousands and thousands of pages that follow a standard format each year -- likely signals that the Administration is trying to keep the focus off the massive deficits which the United States will incur after 2010.

Bloomberg News notes that under the 2007 budget, the federal deficit would decline until 2010 and then start rising at a remarkable rate.

[UpInArms]

21. Paid Shill Report: Did Nvidia Hire Online Actors to Promote Their Products

http://www.consumerist.com/consumer/evil/did-nvidia-hire-online-actors-to-promote-their-products-152874.php

About a week ago, The Consumerist stumbled upon claims made by various gaming websites (specifically, Elite Bastards and Beyond3D) that graphics chip manufacturer Nvidia, in cooperation with the Arbuthnot Entertainment Group (AEG), had seeded various gaming and PC hardware enthusiast sites with pro-Nvidia shills. That is to say, that AEG would hire employees to create ‘personas’ in various gaming communities, slowly building up the trust of other members by frequent posting unrelated to Nvidia, to later cash in that trust with message board postings talking up the positive qualities of Nvidia’s products.

The research done by these gaming websites and communities fingered a few likely suspects, but did not prove outright that AEG’s work—quoted on their web site as “Message board monitoring and response” and “Strategic seeding viral assets to ensure they are spread far and wide”—included placing ringers in their communities.

Almost at the same time, we noticed this post on gaming webcomic Penny Arcade, where an anonymous tipster had written in part,

I interviewed for a guerilla marketing business in San Francisco that targeted web forums.

I was told that if I accepted the job, I was to have at LEAST 50 identities on as many forums as I could muster (they wanted 100 eventually), with a goal of 5 posts an hour. The posts had to be well thought out, and the idea was that I was to establish multiple identities with a history on the forums, so that when the timing was right a well written but subtly placed marketing post could be finessed in. And regular visitors would recognize the post as coming from a long time poster.

...more...

[loudsue]

60. Boy that pisses me off! It accounts for some of the DLCers on DU, dunnit?

I've been saying forever that the DLC/republican infiltrators have been "seeding" web sites with their apologists. This article isn't about the DLC, but it's the same type thing that has happened here. They've got more $$ than they know what to do with, so they're infiltrating everything.

And what's worse, there are FEW "liberal" judges left to make them abide by disclosure laws.

Anybody that doesn't "get it" about what's going on in this country isn't paying attention. It's propaganda EVERYWHERE!

:kick:

[UpInArms]

87. like this one?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=2091333&mesg_id=2091365

[UpInArms]

22. Toyota profits soar 34 percent in third quarter

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060207/bs_afp/japanautocompanyearningstoyota_060207080838%3b_ylt=A0SOwj2nW.hDZysByyKmOrgF

TOKYO (AFP) - Toyota Motor, the world's number two automaker, said its net profit jumped 34 percent in the three months to December, helped by the growing popularity of its fuel-efficient hybrid cars.

Toyota, which is on track to overtake struggling US rival General Motors as the world's top auto group, reported a third-quarter net profit of 397.6 billion yen (3.34 billion dollars), up from 296.5 billion yen a year earlier.

Revenue rose 14.8 percent to 5.33 trillion yen.

Toyota has been investing billions of dollars in development and production facilities to boost global production in response to record sales as sky-high oil prices fuel unprecedented interest in its gas-electric hybrid models.

Toyota sold 1.98 million vehicles in the three months to December, a rise of 7.6 percent from a year earlier.

...more...

[JNelson6563]

24. And Detroit will unveil their Bigger, Better SUVs!

Someone send the Clue Bus to Detroit! Big announcement at 8:30 from GM. It will probably be news on how they will screw the workers and stock will soar. Anything to give a spark of hope to investors after massive losses reported (again).

Meanwhile Toyota announces another fabulous quarter.

Yeah, isn't this suppose to be the "CEO Asministration" who was going to lead us to properity and success? Oy!

Julie

[UpInArms]

25. Disney offloads radio and film stakes (to fund Pixar acquisition)

http://business.guardian.co.uk/story/0,,1704134,00.html

Disney has begun a sell-off of non-core assets, disposing of significant stakes in its radio business and on-demand film operation, Moviebeam.

The company announced it was selling large chunks of ABC's radio stations for $2.7bn (£1.5bn) and most of its stake in Moviebeam for $48.5m (£28m), in two deals that will go some way to funding its $7.4bn (£4.2bn) acquisition of Pixar.

Disney said it would also sell around a third of its ABC radio stations and the ABC Radio Networks business to Las Vegas group Citadel Broadcasting, in a cash and share deal that will create America's third largest radio group.

The media giant sold most of its stake in the three-year-old video-on-demand business, Moviebeam, to a consortium of venture capital firms and technology company Cisco Systems.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Enron figure again testifies on Lay, Skilling

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0207ernon07.html

HOUSTON - Enron Corp.'s former investor-relations chief said Monday that he spoke, to no avail, with company founder Kenneth Lay and former Chief Executive Jeffrey Skilling about investors' concerns over murky financial disclosures months before Enron imploded in December 2001.

In his third day testifying in Lay and Skilling's fraud and conspiracy trial, Mark Koenig said the obfuscation continued even as Enron disclosed massive quarterly losses in mid-October 2001, two months after Skilling had resigned and Lay had resumed the role of chief executive officer.

When prosecutor Kathryn Ruemmler asked him if Lay encouraged him to always follow Enron's code of ethics requiring candor, honesty and fairness, Koenig replied, "At times, no."

...more...

[UpInArms]

84. Exec: Enron Was Wrong to Hike Earnings

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/02/07/ap/business/mainD8FKCI507.shtml

AP) Enron Corp.'s former investor-relations chief grew tense Tuesday when he insisted the company was wrong to hike earnings by a penny per share in early 2000 to meet Wall Street estimates, even though he didn't know how the final figures were reached.

In his fourth day testifying in the fraud and conspiracy trial of Enron founder Kenneth Lay and former CEO Jeffrey Skilling, Mark Koenig reiterated his belief that top executives bent on meeting or beating Wall Street earnings expectations made overnight changes that he considered suspect.

Failure to meet or beat analyst earnings expectations could spark a drop in the company's stock price, which Koenig said was all-important at Enron.

Under cross-examination by lead Skilling lawyer Daniel Petrocelli, Koenig recalled informing Skilling and former top Enron accountant Richard Causey on the day before Enron was to announce fourth-quarter 1999 earnings that analysts had kicked up expectations to 31 cents per share from 30 cents. Drafts of earnings press releases showed Enron was to announce earnings of 30 cents per share.

He said Causey told him he would "work on it," and "a decision was made to increase the earnings." However, Koenig did not say Skilling ordered the change.

"I know they figured out a way to come up with the extra penny. I didn't inquire into the exact transaction or adjustment, no," he said. "To go back and sharpen a pencil to find another penny, that's wrong."

<snip>

Enron went bankrupt in December 2001 within weeks of revelations of hidden debt and inflated profits. Prosecutors contend Lay and Skilling repeatedly lied about Enron's health when they knew that accounting maneuvers propped up a facade of success.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Did I just see a pig fly?

Howard Kurtz finally noticed that cable news is full of crap :wow:

Eavesdropping on Congress

Cable news is driving me crazy.

What's been the biggest domestic issue of the last month or so? Bush administration eavesdropping without court orders. And yesterday was the first congressional oversight hearing on the controversy, with Alberto Gonzales as the star witness.

The cable nets all made a great show of 'covering' the Senate Judiciary hearing by carrying the AG's opening statement, then maybe a question or two from Arlen Specter. Then they trotted out their legal analysts to talk about the meaning of the hearing, which by then must have been eight or nine minutes old. The hearing became video wallpaper as the cable talkers talked. They never even got to Pat Leahy, the panel's top Democrat, meaning that only Republican voices were heard. Gonzales essentially got a free ride.

Then everyone moved on to other subjects. MSNBC went back to the hearing for a couple of minutes but thought better of it. We had CNN looking at Fall Fashion Week, Fox ginning up a debate on Ken Mehlman calling Hillary angry, and MS doing a 'Massachusetts Murder Mystery.'

Now I'm not saying the Gonzales session should have been covered wall to wall (though fortunately it was on C-SPAN). America probably got sick of the preening politicians during the Roberts and Alito hearings. And the cable nets did deal with other serious issues. But they couldn't even be bothered with dipping in and out of the first attempt on Capitol Hill to hold the administration accountable for its domestic spying program. Instead, we had the appearance of coverage, and even that didn't last long.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. More Media Bias Caught - Boehner is being "whitewashed" as a "reformer"

A Boehner in the Henhouse

Newly-selected House Majority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, is getting some remarkably good press, considering his remarkably sordid political pedigree.

ABC News referred to the grizzled veteran of Capitol Hill, who was elected to the House when George Bush the Dad was president and Democrat Tom Foley was the Speaker of the House, as a "fresh face." The network's report on the House Republican Caucus vote to select a replacement for the indicted Tom DeLay was headlined: "New Leader, Ohio Rep. John Boehner, Campaigned as a Reformer."

The Los Angeles Times announced, with no apparent sense of irony, that: "By choosing Boehner to fill DeLay's shoes in the House, the party hopes to move past scandals."

Newsday just went for it, declaring above its report on Boehner's election: "A promise of reform wins vote."

<snip>

Boehner is an old-fashioned shakedown artist whose promise of "change" amounts to little more than a pledge that he won't get caught like DeLay did. The Ohioan may be smoother than the Texan, but only a fool, or a Washington pundit looking to cozy up to the new boss, would mistake a better haircut and the absence of the stench of bug spray as evidence of ethics.

...more...

[RawMaterials]

34. Ok the guy just creeps me out i mean look at him

and here we have the old republican halo effect.


&resize=full

[AnneD]

51. There isn't enough paint in all of America...

to whitewash Boehner as a reformer.:eyes:

By the way UIA,great job :applause:

[JNelson6563]

36. Howie the Whore??

That is shocking!

[UpInArms]

41. He's breaking RayGun's "11th Commandment"

I wonder if he's ready to switch his voter registration? :eyes:

The "Eleventh Commandment"

During Ronald Reagan's 1966 campaign for governor of California, Republicans established the so-called Eleventh Commandment: "Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican."

It was proposed by State Republican Chairman Gaylord Parkinson to help prevent a repeat of the liberal Republican assault on Barry Goldwater that laid the foundation for Goldwater's trouncing in the 1964 presidential election. Just as Nelson Rockefeller and his East Coast cronies had branded Goldwater as an "extremist" who was unfit to hold office, so candidate George Christopher and California's liberal Republicans were leveling similar personal attacks on Reagan. Party liberals eventually followed Parkinson's advice, and the rest is history.

Fast forward to March 5, 2002.

While it wasn't the only factor, failure to observe the Eleventh Commandment undoubtedly played a role in the unprecedented implosion of Richard Riordan's gubernatorial campaign in California. It was déjà vu for Republican veterans when, for example, in the death throes of his failed campaign, Riordan invoked the ghosts of Rockefeller and Christopher by branding Bill Simon as an "extremist." Following suit, Gray Davis invoked the ghosts of Lyndon Johnson and Pat Brown by repeating Riordan's charge.

...more...

[UpInArms]

67. Gonzo the spyer receives "gentle criticism from three Republicans"

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/chi-0602070140feb07,1,5202563.story?coll=chi-newsnationworld-hed

WASHINGTON -- Under sometimes strenuous attacks from Senate Democrats, and more gentle criticism from three Republicans, Atty. Gen. Alberto Gonzales on Monday defended the Bush administration's warrantless eavesdropping effort as a vital and legal tool for fighting terrorism, but he declined to answer numerous specific questions about the secret surveillance.

"The terrorist surveillance program is lawful in all respects," Gonzales said, using the administration's preferred moniker for the effort, which involves intercepting communications between the U.S. and locations abroad, without prior court approval, in which one party allegedly has unspecified links to terrorism.

<snip>

Thousands of court orders for eavesdropping are issued every year by a special court established under FISA, but the administration has not sought them for the program in question, which began after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Gonzales declined to answer numerous questions Monday on the grounds that the answers are classified, including how many communications involving U.S. citizens have been intercepted without warrants or what constitutes terrorist ties.

He maintains that bypassing the court is within President Bush's inherent constitutional power as commander in chief. Bush and Gonzales have argued that Congress allowed for it when lawmakers authorized Bush to use "all necessary and appropriate force" against Al Qaeda and those who harbored or assisted it--a vote that came three days after the suicide hijackings and opened the door to invade Afghanistan.

`That just defies logic'

...more...

[Roland99]

93. Conservative News Network, MSRNC, and FAUX...what a world.

[UpInArms]

33. Six-month T-bill at highest level in 5 years

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20060207-9999-1b7calbrfs.html

The Treasury Department auctioned $20 billion in three-month bills at a discount rate of 4.375 percent, unchanged from last week. An additional $17 billion in six-month bills was auctioned at a discount rate of 4.500 percent, up from 4.435 percent.

The six-month rate was the highest since 4.530 percent on March 5, 2001.

Separately, the Federal Reserve said that the average yield for one-year Treasury bills, a popular index for making changes in adjustable rate mortgages, rose to 4.60 percent last week from 4.50 percent the previous week.

[UpInArms]

43. Treasurys higher ahead of 3-year notes sales

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?siteid=mktw&guid=%7BBE179EA6-FE2F-4B84-BE05-D1E84B68CFD2%7D&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasurys moved higher early Tuesday, sending yields lower, as investors readied for an afternoon auction of $21 billion in 3-year notes. The benchmark 10-year note last was up 2/32 at 99-23/32 with a yield ($TNX) of 4.538%. There is concern about the large size of the 3-year offering, given that the fixed-income market in the year to date has had to absorb an unusually large amount of corporate and government issuance. The issuance highlight of the week should come on Thursday, when the Treasury Department will revive the 30-year bond, after retiring it in 2001.

[UpInArms]

58. U.S. Treasuries mixed before barrage of auctions

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-02-07T144349Z_01_N07338259_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries traded in narrow ranges on Tuesday as investors prepared for a barrage of debt auctions slated to begin later in the day with a $21 billion offering of three-year notes.

Following Tuesday's auction, the U.S. Treasury will issue $13 billion of 10-year debt on Wednesday and $14 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday in the first issuance of the long bond since August 2001.

Traders and analysts are all but certain that the 30-year bond will attract heavy buying -- but were more cautious about the other two legs of the auction.

"The whole refunding should go reasonably well," Alan De Rose, a trader with CIBC World Markets in New York. "The market is off its lows from Friday, but yields are still 15 to 17 basis points higher than they were two weeks ago, so that's part of the (price) concession."

One potential problem for the refunding is the possibility that interest by foreign buyers may be flagging. Foreign buyers have scooped up large portions of Treasury debt offerings in the last few years, helping keep U.S. yields relatively low.

A Bloomberg News report on Tuesday said Nippon Life Insurance Co., a big Japanese life insurer, may buy more euro-denominated bonds this year, which could dent foreign demand for U.S. debt. The report cited an asset allocation manager at the company.

...more...

[UpInArms]

64. SnowJob attempts verbal intervention in view of refunding problems

10:21am 02/07/06 SNOW: 'NO DOUBT' U.S, WILL CONTINUE TO ATTRACT CAPITAL

[UpInArms]

115. Reuters puts the truth to SnowJob's Lies

US Treasuries ease as refunding off to soft start

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices held lower on Tuesday after a sale of new three-year notes met lackluster demand, including from indirect bidders.

Since that category includes foreign central banks, dealers worried about offshore appetite for U.S. government debt in a week that would still see another $27 billion in issuance.

In reaction, bond prices held negative but losses were trimmed on hopes for better results in the week's remaining two auctions.

<snip>

The breakdown too was far from favorable. Indirect bidders bought a meager $4.56 billion or 21 percent, the second lowest result since the reintroduction of the maturity in 2003.

...more...

[UpInArms]

75. U.S. Treasuries ease as 3-year note auction nears

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-07T161023Z_01_N07392379_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries turned lower on Tuesday as investors prepared for a barrage of debt auctions later in the day, starting with a $21 billion offering of three-year notes.

Following Tuesday's auction, the U.S. Treasury will issue $13 billion of 10-year debt on Wednesday and $14 billion of 30-year bonds on Thursday in the first issuance of the long bond since August 2001.

Traders and analysts are all but certain the 30-year bond will attract heavy buying. But they were more cautious about the other two legs of the auction.

"The whole refunding should go reasonably well," said Alan De Rose, a trader with CIBC World Markets in New York. "Yields are still 15 to 17 basis points higher than they were two weeks ago, so that's part of the (price) concession."

The 30-year bond, which has enjoyed sometimes-heavy bidding in the last two sessions in the run-up to Thursday's auction, eased 15/32 in price to yield 4.656 percent, up from 4.625 percent on Monday. Traders said the declines reflected a dearth of buyers following the recent demand, and nothing more.

...more...

[UpInArms]

77. More Treasury investors bearish before supply-poll

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-07T161739Z_01_N07397215_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-TREASURIES-JPMORGAN.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - More investors turned bearish on Treasuries ahead of this week's $48 billion Treasury quarterly refunding, a poll released on Tuesday showed.

Investors who said on Monday they were "short" investors -- those holding fewer Treasuries than their portfolio benchmarks -- rose to 45 percent from 43 percent a week earlier, J.P. Morgan Securities said.

The share of investors who said were "long" Treasuries -- holding more U.S. government securities than their benchmarks -- fell to 7 percent from 9 percent a week ago.

The latest total of "long" Treasury investors was the lowest since September 2005, it said.

<snip>

This week's supply of new Treasury securities have been a major negative factor for bonds. Players have been concerned whether there will be ample demand to meet the $48 billion in new debt, analysts and traders said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

100. Treasury Auction Results:

1:06pm 02/07/06 2-YEAR FLAT AT 99 17/32; YIELD 4.625% AFTER AUCTION

1:06pm 02/07/06 10-YEAR DOWN 8/32 AT 99 13/32; YIELD 4.574% AFTER AUCTION

1:06pm 02/07/06 30-YEAR DOWN 15/32 AT 110 19/32; YIELD 4.655% AFTER AUCTION

1:04pm 02/07/06 3-YEAR AUCTION INDIRECT BID LOW 22%

1:04pm 02/07/06 3-YEAR AUCTION INDIRECT BID LOW 22%

1:02pm 02/07/06 3-YEAR NOTE AUCTION MEDIAN YIELD 4.571%

1:03pm 02/07/06 3-YEAR NOTE AUCTION BID-TO-COVER RATIO 2.03

[UpInArms]

102. Treasuries extend losses after weak 3-yr note sale - cen banks not buying

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-07T181411Z_01_NYG000126_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-AUCTION-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices extended losses on Tuesday after an auction of $21 billion in three-year notes drew weak demand, notably from indirect bidders.

The notes were sold at a high yield of 4.595 percent and drew bids for 2.03 times the amount on offer, the lowest since an auction in August 2004 and below the 2.10 average seen since Treasury reintroduced the maturity nearly three years ago.

Indirect bidders, which include customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, snagged $4.56 billion, or 21.7 percent of the deal, well below the 36.79 percent average in the 11 three-year note auctions dating back to May 2003.

...more...

[UpInArms]

104. Treasury 3-year note auction "a relative bust"

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38755.550528831-859650845&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - A Treasury Department auction of $21 billion in 3-year notes was "a relative bust," according to Action Economics. The sale produced a weak bid-to-cover - or bids rendered to bids accepted - ratio of 2.03. The percentage of indirect bidders, a closely watched category that includes foreign central banks, was just 22%, a record low. The aution produced a median yield of 4.571%. The auction was widely expected to have weak results due to very heavy corporate and government notes supply in early 2006.

[UpInArms]

112. Treasury prices losses intensify after weak auction - yield inversion

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/print_story.asp?print=1&guid={6B7252C3-38C9-499E-A8EE-1524C49CBA16}&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury price losses mounted Tuesday afternoon, pushing yields higher, after a disappointing auction of new 3-year Treasury notes that produced a record low percentage of indirect bidders, the closely watched category that includes foreign central banks.

The benchmark 10-year note was last down 7/32 at 99 14/32 with a yield ($TNX) of 4.571%.

The yield curve remained inverted, as the yield on the 10-year note fell below the 2-year yield. The 2-year note was unchanged at 99 17/32 with a 4.621% yield.

The 30-year bond was down 16/32 at 110 18/32 with a yield of 4.656%, after also briefly inverting against the 2-year on Monday.

Investors are divided about the significance of the inverted yield curve, which some believe signals a looming recession.

...more...

[UpInArms]

121. Treasurys close lower after unexpectedly weak 3-yr auction

There go those "surprised" economists again! Who the hell would not have "expected" a "weak" auction? A turnip?

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Long-term Treasury prices closed lower Tuesday, pushing yields higher, after a disappointing auction of new 3-year Treasury notes that produced a record low percentage of foreign central banks and other indirect bidders. There are concerns that foreign insitutions are diversifying away from U.S. assets at a time of exceptionally heavy supply of bonds and notes of all types. The 3-year note normally is popular with foreign buyers. However, investors remain hopeful that the revival Thursday of the 30-year long bond will go well. The benchmark 10-year note closed 6/32 lower at 99-15/32 with a yield ($TNX) of 4.568%.

3:05pm 02/07/06 10-YR TREASURY YIELD ENDS AT 4.568%; 2-YR YIELD AT 4.604%

3:04pm 02/07/06 30-YR BOND CLOSES DOWN 16/32 AT 110-18/32; YIELD 4.656%

[UpInArms]

39. pre-opening blather

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.0. Stage remains set for the indices to open modestly lower as futures trade continues to languish below fair value. The absence of notable economic data to set a more definitive tone for trading and perhaps provide a catalyst to break the market out of its torpor further underscores early hesitation on the part of the buyers.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Still shaping up to be a sluggish start for the cash market as futures indications still hold a negative slant. While reports that General Motors' (GM) Board agreed to slash GM's dividend by 50% will result in huge cost savings, the removal of shareholder value during a time when so many companies flush with cash are returning value to shareholders may also be hanging over the market.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures market versus fair value suggests a modestly lower start for stocks amid ongoing concerns about slowing profit growth. Dow components Walt Disney (DIS) and Coca-Cola (KO) both beat Wall Street's expectations but Toll Brothers (TOL) cutting its 2006 home delivery estimates and uncertainty ahead of Cisco Systems' (CSCO) earnings after the close are underpinning an early sense of nervousness.

[UpInArms]

44. Premium Standard Farms' profit, sales decline

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38755.3905140046-859624504&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=symb&value=&categories=&

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Pork processor Premium Standard Farms turned in a third-quarter profit that was sharply lower than last year's, partly because of declining hog prices. For the quarter that ended Dec. 24, the Kansas City, Mo.-based company said it made $13.8 million, or 44 cents a share, compared with last year's profit of $23 million, or 74 cents a share. Total sales fell to $242.9 million from $246.8 million a year ago. The company said it will expand the Milan, Mo., processing plant, which will up total processing capacity by 15%. Premium Standard Farms also said it is "actively pursuing" acquisitions. Shares (PORK) ended Monday's session at $14.72.

Has anyone noticed a drop in food prices? Ummm... I thought not. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

48. 9:39 EST casino's doors are open

Dow 10,794.26 -4.01 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,255.25 -3.55 (-0.16%)
S&P 500 1,262.03 -2.99 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.535 -0.10 (-0.22%)

NYSE Volume 105,964,000
Nasdaq Volume 123,080,000

[UpInArms]

54. Gold futures fall to an almost two-week low - $560.50 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38755.4129901389-859628571&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- April gold traded as low as $560.50 an ounce, its lowest level since Jan. 26. It was last at $562, down $12.30, or 2.1%. "It finally looks like we're in for a little bit of profit taking and a necessary retracement," said Dale Doelling, chief market technician at Trends In Commodities. March silver was down 25.8 cents at $9.50 an ounce and March copper lost 2.3 cents to $2.307 a pound.

[UpInArms]

85. April Gold @ $558.90 oz

12:05pm 02/07/06 APRIL GOLD TOUCHES TWO-WEEK LOW OF $558/OZ

12:05pm 02/07/06 APRIL GOLD LAST DOWN $15.40, OR 2.7%, AT $558.90/OZ

[UpInArms]

98. April Gold @ $556 oz

12:57pm 02/07/06 APRIL GOLD DROPS TO $555.80/OZ TO NEAR A THREE-WEEK LOW

12:57pm 02/07/06 APRIL GOLD LAST DOWN $18.40, OR 3.2%, AT $556/OZ

[UpInArms]

113. April Gold closes @ $554.80 oz

1:46pm 02/07/06 APRIL GOLD DROPS $19.50 TO CLOSE AT A 3-WK LOW OF $554.80/OZ

1:46pm 02/07/06 MARCH COPPER FALLS 5.2C, OR 2.2%, TO END AT $2.278/LB

1:46pm 02/07/06 MARCH PALLADIUM ENDS AT 1-WEEK LOW OF $289.20/OZ, DOWN 7.5%

[UpInArms]

56. Twisted Logic Alert:US Treasury's SnowJob:Keep taxes low to shrink deficit

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-07T144306Z_01_N07219633_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-BUDGET-SNOW.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush's proposed federal budget will shrink the U.S. government's budget gap even as expiring tax breaks are made permanent, Treasury Secretary John Snow told members of Congress on Tuesday.

"A lot of good can come from a smart federal budget, and a considerable amount of harm can come from a bad one. Let's use the FY 2007 budget to make good policy - restrained as the circumstances dictate on spending but aggressive on the expansion of opportunity," Snow said in testimony prepared for delivery to the Senate Finance Committee.

<snip>

Snow said Bush's budget and his push to make permanent tax cuts that are set to expire at the end of 2008 is consistent with long-term goals of reducing the deficit, which the administration projects to reach $423 billion in 2006.

"Lower tax rates are good for the economy and a growing economy is good for Treasury receipts," he said.

...more at link...

[wordpix]

63. Dems need to make this point: even if you have lower tax rates (for rich

taxpayers, mostly), state and local govs. have to make up for shrinking fed funds that used to trickle down to them. Thus, state and local taxes go up to pay for necessities like road maintenance, schools, programs for the poor and so on.

Dem candidates should grab this head on

[AnneD]

94. Been there, done that....

most American's have trouble making that logical connection. Don't know why, but then again, they voted against their best interest AND pocketbook for 2 presidential cycles now. I have argued this with my GOP business friends...they just don't get it.

[UpInArms]

96. b.b.butttt - them gays kant git murried!

[AnneD]

99. And the GOP support base,

much like the national stem cell bank, lacks genetic depth.:evilgrin:

[UpInArms]

65. SnowJob LIED about when debt ceiling would be breached

U.S.'s Snow says need debt ceiling rise soon

WASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Treasury Secretary John Snow on Tuesday said the government's debt limit should be raised by mid-February and the Treasury's ability to meet debt obligations would be "exhausted" by mid-March if it was not raised.

"The letter I sent in December to the Congress indicated that we will need to raise it by mid-February," Snow said in response to questions before the Senate Finance Committee.

Asked how long the Treasury could meet the country's debt obligations in the absence of a debt-limit rise, using a variety of extraordinary means, Snow said that it could do so until mid-March.

"The administration now projects that the statutory debt limit, currently $8.184 trillion, will be reached in mid-February 2006," Snow said in a letter to Congress in December.

The debt limit was last raised in November 2004 by $800 billion to its current level. Treasury did not specify in December the amount by which it wanted the debt ceiling raised.


The estimated population of the United States is 298,461,469
so each citizen's share of this debt is $27,511.74.

The National Debt has continued to increase an average of
$2.14 billion per day since September 30, 2005

http://www.publicdebt.treas.gov/opd/opdpenny.htm

02/03/2006 $8,195,544,127,376.07

[54anickel]

70. Hell, you didn't expect this mal-admin to follow the law on such a minor

detail as a debt limit - did you? They are above the law and Congress has been reduced to nothing more than window dressing to give the appearance of a democracy.

[UpInArms]

74. This guy says that Dimson has added $20 Trillion to long-term US Debt

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2092-2024908,00.html

Yes, the guy from Texas whose energy bill gave oodles to big oil made a feint to the green caucus. No one should be too alarmed. This president has never asked Americans to make any sacrifices in the war on terror; he has never vetoed a spending bill; he has never raised a tax; he has added more than $20 trillion to America’s long-term debt in a mere five years. He isn’t actually going to ask people to use less oil, let alone adopt what was, one should sheepishly recall, a central plank of John Kerry’s election manifesto.

[UpInArms]

66. 10:38 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,792.50 -5.77 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,253.67 -5.13 (-0.23%)
S&P 500 1,261.33 -3.69 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.559 +0.14 (+0.31%)

NYSE Volume 541,681,000
Nasdaq Volume 550,880,000

10:30 am : Stocks retrace earlier lows as further deterioration in oil prices continues to weigh heavily on Energy. The sector, which is now down 2.4% in sympathy with a 1.4% pullback in crude futures, remains one of the few sources of market support, albeit when trading in positive territory, since Energy accounts for the bulk of earnings growth on the S&P. DJ30 -9.02 NASDAQ -4.80 SP500 -4.45 XOI -2.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1231/1391/488 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1428/1437/354 mln

10:00 am : Major averages inch into positive territory but now trade in split fashion. Leading the recovery effort has been a turnaround in Technology, led by improvements in semiconductor and software, while rebounds in HMOs and medical equipment have provided a lift to Health Care. Energy, however, amid weakness across the energy complex, has more than erased the 1.5% advance that helped stocks yesterday offset weakness in Tech and Health Care to finish relatively flat. DJ30 +13.42 NASDAQ +1.24 SP500 -1.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1246/1104/264 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1539/948/190 mln

09:40 am : Market opens modestly lower as investors find few catalysts on the immediate horizon to get stocks back on track in February. Ongoing worries about earnings deceleration, led by Toll Brothers (TOL 30.12 -1.08) warning it won't build as many homes as previously forecasted, is acting as an early overhang. Also not helping market sentiment is confirmation that General Motors (GM 23.22 -0.12) agreed to slash its dividend by 50%, especially during a time when so many companies flush with cash are returning value to shareholders in the form of dividend increases -- news that has helped support the market. DJ30 -5.12 NASDAQ -3.91 SP500 -3.22 NASDAQ Vol 124 mln NYSE Vol 88

[54anickel]

73. The Battleground of Globalization (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060206-mon.html#anchor0

The global labor market was always destined to be the battleground of globalization. Signs of this conflict are everywhere. The Great American labor market is but a shadow of its former self, as lagging job creation and generally stagnant real wages have broken decisively with historical norms. The same pressures are bearing down on high-wage workers throughout the developed world. At work is an increasingly powerful IT-enabled global labor arbitrage that reslices the global pie. For the industrial world, the pendulum of economic returns has swung from labor to capital, whereas for the developing world, the benefits have accrued mainly to labor. The rules of macro engagement are being challenged as never before.

In the big industrialized economies of the developed world, the squeeze on labor could well be the singular macro development of our lifetime. In the structurally-impaired economies of Europe and Japan, labor-market rigidities are on a clear collision course with globalization. The result has been a protracted period of historically high unemployment (Europe) or chronic under-employment (Japan). In response, Japan is in the process of dismantling its sacred institution of lifetime employment, and Germany, still the bellwether of Old Europe, has been transforming its workforce increasingly into part-timers and contract temps. The latest stats put such “flexi workers” at 39% of the total German workforce -- up sharply from the 29% share ten years ago.

Even in the US, with supposedly the world’s most flexible labor market, workers are feeling unprecedented pressures. Nonfarm payrolls have expanded by an average of just 158,000 over the past six months -- only half the “scale-adjusted” norm of the four preceding long-cycle expansions in the US. And pay rates, whether measured by the monthly average hourly earning series (+3.3% y-o-y in January 2006) or the broader and more accurate compensation gauge of the Employment Cost Index (+3.1% in 4Q05) are not keeping up with CPI inflation (+3.4% in December 2005).

The net result of these trends has been a significant compression of the share of output remunerated to labor in the developed world. In the US, for example, inflation-adjusted worker compensation in the private sector -- which includes wages, salaries, and benefits and is, by far, the biggest piece of overall personal income in the US -- has risen only 12% in the 49-month time span of the current expansion. By our calculations, this falls about $365 billion short (in real terms) of the 20% increase that occurred, on average, over comparable intervals of the past four expansions. Nor is the US an outlier. According to our estimates, the combined compensation shares of the US, Europe, and Japan fell to 54.4% of gross national income in late 2005 -- a record low since the inception of this series in 1991 (see accompanying chart). Labor’s share of industrial world output is under unprecedented pressure.

snip>

The implications of the global labor arbitrage can hardly be minimized. I would break the impacts down into three areas -- economics, financial markets, and politics. In terms of economics, labor wins in the developing world but loses in the developed world -- at least for the foreseeable future. That puts unrelenting pressure on income generation in the rich economies -- raising serious questions about the sustainability of consumer-led growth dynamics. The US has finessed this possibility -- at least for the time being -- by extracting equity from asset holdings. This strategy works, however, for as long as the value of the underlying assets holds up. If the air is coming out of the US housing bubble, as I now suspect, then there is good reason to worry about US leadership on the demand side of the global economy -- and equally good reason to worry about who elsewhere in the world may fill the resulting void.

more...warning, the last paragraph is a puker! :puke:

[UpInArms]

76. I wonder how many $$$ Roach got for shining Dimson's arse

in that last paragraph?

(I couldn't bring myself to post such a crapweasel recommendation :eyes: )

[AnneD]

103. Thanks...

for the 'heads up' :evilgrin: Crapweasel....hmmm... must add to vocabulary.

[UpInArms]

107. that particular creature is the sibling of the

pissweasel - although a bit more disgusting in and of itself :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

78. Ben Bernanke: An unworldly professor

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2006/02/06/ubernanke.xml&sSheet=/money/2006/02/06/ixcitytop.html

Ben Bernanke admits with disarming candour that he has never run anything beyond deciding "whether to serve tea or coffee" at the Princeton University faculty meetings.

I should leave it there - nuff said

snip>

He insists that America shoppers are not to blame for the excess - much to the delight of the White House and Wall Street. The root cause of the imbalances is Asian thrift, or a "global savings glut" that has flooded into the United States in search of yield. The problem will "unwind gradually" of its own accord, he says. Will it?

A large army of critics led by George Soros and Warren Buffett expects the rising powers of Asia to shatter the Bernanke theory in short order as they tire of US treasuries, triggering a dollar slide and a spike in US bond rates.

"The real reason why America has such low savings is because US interest rates have been held too low, for too long," said Derek Scott, Tony Blair's ex-economic advisor.

Charles Dumas, chief economist for Lombard Street Research, said the trouble is just beginning for Mr Bernanke as the full effects of the Fed's 14 interest rates rises from 1pc to 4.5pc since June 2004 feed through the system.

"The economy is going to grind to a halt in the second half of the year. Consumer demand is running at 107pc of total income. This can't keep up or debt ratios will go through the roof," he said.

more...

[dweller]

110. boy, they picked a winner ...

"The US government has a technology called a printing
press that allows it to produce as many US dollars as it
wishes at essentially no cost," he said.

Ultimately, the Fed can flood the system by buying any
kind of asset, or even dropping bank notes from
helicopters, he said. The speech earned him the epithet
"Helicopter Ben" and perhaps a fatal notoriety as a
inflationist, however unfairly.

:crazy:

dp

[54anickel]

81. BEHIND THE JOBS LETDOWN

http://www.nypost.com/business/63049.htm

snip>

Just 193,000 new jobs were created in January. Worse, the government revised away 158,000 jobs that it previously thought were created over the last year.

And if the Labor Department hadn't concocted a major, surprising adjustment to a guesstimate it makes for companies that are likely going out of business in the year's first month, the new job total would have been closer to 100,000.

The bond market understood just how disappointing these figures were (even if The New York Times didn't). Bonds rallied for two days following the employment report because a slow economy means less demand for borrowed money.

Those 193,000 new jobs in January aren't even enough to make up for the expected growth in the U.S. population. The 250,000 the experts were expecting would have been barely enough.

In its calculation of the unemployment rate — which dropped to 4.7 percent from 4.9 percent — the government removed 130,000 workers from the labor force, presumably because they have given up looking for a job. Without that labor-force deduction, the drop in the unemployment rate wouldn't have occurred.

more...

[Roland99]

92. Ah, neat trick. Remove long-term unemployed from the labor force et voila!

Unemployment numbers look GREAT!

Damn! Why didn't we think of this before?!

It's the Enron way!

[AnneD]

106. When terminologies collide....

every now and again, a word or phrase is used on this board that has Nursing implications that cause me to do a double take. However, sometimes there is a connection....
Let down-the term for the releasing on milk from the mammary glands to the nipple in preparation for feeding. Jobs let down-the disappearance of jobs and the disappointing number of available jobs. The connection, of course, is that anyway you look at it...the whole thing sucks....

[UpInArms]

88. Historical Revision Alert: U.S. Labor Dept to revise job opening, hires da

U.S. Labor Dept to revise job opening, hires data

WASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The Labor Department said it will revise Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) survey data in next month's January 2006 release.

The Bureau of Labor Statistis will revise job openings, hires and separations figures to incorporate annual updates to the current employment statistics and JOLTS seasonal adjustment factors, the department said.

Starting next month, the bureau will publish annual rates and levels for hires and separations in the January release each year.

The department said unadjusted data since April 2004 and seasonally adjusted figures since December 2000 are subject to revision.

...more...

[UpInArms]

95. 12:54 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,783.22 -15.05 (-0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,247.00 -11.80 (-0.52%)
S&P 500 1,259.51 -5.51 (-0.44%)
10-Yr Bond 4.569 +0.24 (+0.53%)

NYSE Volume 1,225,832,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,197,135,000

12:30 pm : No significant change to the market's underlying bearish bias as the afternoon session gets underway, but the Dow has made another push into the red. Notable blue chips turning negative since the last update include C, UTX and VZ. While such choppiness can typically be attributed to a lack of volume, as evidenced by yesterday marking the slowest trading day of the year, it should be worth noting that today's activity has come on above average volume. The Nasdaq has already surpassed 1.0 shares while nearly 850 mln shares have changed hands on the NYSE. DJ30 -22.05 NASDAQ -13.21 SP500 -6.22 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1856/1042/1.09 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1953/1149/846 mln

12:00 pm : Market remains mixed midday as investors continue to find little in the way of market moving catalysts to break the market out of its languor. The absence of industry leadership has been paced by consolidation across the energy complex, as a lack of buying support from the sector providing the largest contribution to profits on the S&P 500 merely exacerbates concern about expected earnings deceleration.

One bright spot has been Walt Disney (DIS 26.06 +1.10), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio which turned in a solid quarter and accounts for the bulk of support on the Dow. However, the stock's 5% advance has been unable to single-handedly lift Consumer Discretionary, as a disappointing forecast from home builder Toll Brothers (TOL 30.24 -0.96) and confirmation that General Motors (GM 23.15 -0.19) agreed to slash its dividend by 50% continue to weigh on sentiment. Coca-Cola (KO 41.21 +0.27) also posted better than expected results but weakness in household products, grocers and drug retail have prevented Consumer Staples from trading higher.

Health Care, though, has shown relative strength, benefiting from rebounds in HMOs and medical equipment, while Technology clings to a small gain. Even though many technology reports (e.g. INTC, GOOG and AMZN) have disappointed investors of late, Cisco Systems (CSCO 18.15 +0.32), which reports after the bell, has a very strong track record of consistency which has so far made it less vulnerable. DJ30 +7.20 NASDAQ -6.38 SP500 -3.90 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1724/1134/974 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1878/1176/748 mln

[UpInArms]

97. Ford readies buyout offers for St. Louis workers

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-07T175043Z_01_N07231044_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-FORD-BUYOUTS.XML

DETROIT, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Tuesday it is close to an agreement with the United Auto Workers union on buyout packages, including a $100,000 severance payment, for workers at a St. Louis plant that will be idled by the end of March.

The packages would also be available to workers at other plants that are slated to be idled if they are approved by each of the affected local unions, said Ford spokeswoman Marcey Evans.

<snip>

The $100,000 severance incentive is one of five packages being proposed for St. Louis and other plants as the No. 2 U.S. automaker moves ahead with its plan to close 14 plants by 2012 and cut up to 30,000 blue-collar jobs to turn around its money-losing North American unit.

<snip>

Under Ford's agreement with the UAW, which expires in the fall of 2007, Ford can't permanently lay off workers.

Workers who choose the tuition program will be reimbursed up to $15,000 per year for four years along with medical benefits and half their regular pay, Evans said.

The first retirement option, for workers 55 and older who have 30 or more years of service, offers $35,000 and full retirement benefits. The second retirement option, for workers 55 and older who have 10 or more years of service, offers a lifetime fixed income.

...more...

[UpInArms]

101. 1:15 EST heading south

Dow 10,746.96 -51.31 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,240.39 -18.41 (-0.82%)
S&P 500 1,255.62 -9.40 (-0.74%)
10-Yr Bond 4.563 +0.18 (+0.40%)

NYSE Volume 1,333,574,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,288,066,000

[UpInArms]

108. Abramoff: How scheming lobbyist operated in Seattle firm (good info)

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2002789161_prestongates07m.html

Before joining Seattle-based Preston Gates & Ellis, Jack Abramoff had been involved with South Africa's apartheid regime, Col. Oliver North's campaign to arm Nicaraguan contras, Zaire's dictator Mobutu Sese Seko and Angolan rebel leader Jonas Savimbi, who reportedly had his opponents burned at the stake.

Not the sort of résumé one would expect to appeal to a Democratic-leaning law and lobbying firm with a largely establishment client list. The firm had once turned down a request to represent India in D.C., because of concern for the shaky state of democracy under Indira Gandhi.

But it was a different era when Abramoff showed up. He was a fiercely partisan Republican, and his hiring was announced Dec. 30, 1994 — just days before Newt Gingrich became speaker of the House and Republicans took control of Congress.

<snip>

Ultimately, Abramoff's lobbying practice at Preston Gates became a launching pad for schemes of fraud and influence peddling that would play out on a larger scale once he left the firm at the end of 2000 — eventually exploding into one of the biggest lobbying scandals in a generation.

Abramoff admits in a plea agreement that, while at the firm, he tried to corrupt a congressman, influence one House aide by hiring his wife through a Mercer Island-based religious foundation, and sway another by offering a free trip to a Pacific island.

...much much more...

[UpInArms]

109. FundWatch: Fund industry throws more money at Capitol Hill

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB54DCA93%2D420E%2D4CFD%2D8026%2DFE0719C4C4D4%7D&symbol=&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The $8.9 trillion U.S. mutual-fund industry has been spreading cash around Capitol Hill, with political contributions from employees of the top 10 U.S. fund firms up sharply in recent years, according to a published report.

Employees at the 10 biggest fund firms made $1.3 million in political contributions in the 2004 presidential election-year cycle, up almost 240% from $391,938 in contributions by employees from the same firms in the 2000 cycle, reported financial-services publication InvestmentNews, citing federal records.

The jump in contributions comes as Congress is wrestling with many proposals involving the fund industry. Thus far in the 2006 election cycle, which includes 2005 and 2006, contributions by top 10 fund-company workers total $257,297, InvestmentNews said Monday. The publication cited Opensecrets.com, which tracks campaign spending.

Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., is the biggest congressional recipient of that cash, InvestmentNews added, citing the Web site. Sununu, who opposed a Securities and Exchange Commission rule change requiring funds to have independent chair members, received $14,500 in contributions -- all of it from employees of Boston-based Fidelity.

<snip>

Here's the scoop on the push for "Health Savings Accounts": Health-savings accounts are designed to help people save for future qualified medical and retiree health expenses on a tax-free basis.

"Who's going to manage ?," Lowell said. "It's not going to be your local accountant; it's going to be Fidelity."

In a speech last year in Boston, Fidelity Investments Chief Operating Officer Robert Reynolds urged Congress to pass "safe-harbor" provisions to indemnify companies that automatically enroll employees in 401(k) plans.

Lowell said that automatic 401(k) enrollment is "huge" for fund companies. "It means that without having to do any additional marketing, money will flow through their retirement-account pipelines directly to them. And anytime you can get a government to build a door that goes directly to your shop, well, why not?"

...more...

[UpInArms]

116. Curiosity of the Day: Ex-Gemstar exec to pay $1.3 mln to settle with SEC

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-07T191830Z_01_WAT004808_RTRIDST_0_MEDIA-GEMSTAR-SEC-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The former co-president and chief operating officer of Gemstar-TV Guide International Inc. (GMST.O: Quote, Profile, Research) agreed to pay more than $1.3 million to settle U.S. regulatory charges relating to a scheme to fraudulently inflate company revenues, authorities said on Tuesday.

Elsie Leung, 59, agreed to the fine and a permanent ban from serving as an officer or director of a public company, according to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

The SEC alleged that Gemstar overstated revenues by at least $248 million between June 1999 and September 2002.

Okay - here the curiosity:

Is Elsie Leung any relation to Katrina Leung?

Is it this Elsie Leung?

Have you read about Hong Kong's recent collapse? The slump in the economy? Riots and looting? An end to trade? No more international contacts or travel? Didn't think so. But some in the Government think it could happen, and soon.

Before we get to that, the Hong Kong Government's scurrying off to Beijing for an interpretation of the Basic Law to sort out the Chief Executive mess has lead to some convoluted justifications and flip flops. The Don has said we need to prevent chaos in Hong Kong.

But most disturbing is Elsie Leung, the Secretary for Justice, and her opinion in today's SCMP (reproduced below). Hong Kong's top legal official is basically saying the court system is too slow and unable to handle something of such import. They want to take the short-cut she says is open to the Government and go straight to Beijing. It doesn't say much for her faith in Hong Kong's courts.

Why should this decision be rushed when every other Hong Konger has to wait for the slow wheels of justice to turn? If courts are too slow then fix that.

...more...

Here's the scoop on Katrina Leung (in case you don't know):



There are certain ironies, cognitive disconnects, floating up from the arrest in Los Angeles on spying charges on April 18 of Katrina Leung, a Chinese-born socialite and fundraiser for the Republican Party. Leung is being held without bail on charges that she had been a Chinese spy and double agent for more than 20 years and had slept with two of her Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) handlers - one of whom warned the other that she was a spy - while remaining faithfully married to her husband, Kam, a pharmaceutical distributor.

"I love my wife, Katrina Leung, very much," Dr Kam Leung told reporters outside the Los Angeles area courthouse where she was charged. "We all know that she has high ideals and was working for this country. We look forward to welcoming her home very soon."

The Leung story has all the knobs and switches of a classic spy drama. She is said to have had two code names - one from each side. She was allegedly assigned the name "Luo Zhongshan" by Zhu Qizhen, the Chinese ambassador to the United States, for her Chinese handlers at the Chinese Ministry of State Security. She was known as "Parlor Maid" to her US handlers, James J Smith, a 30-year veteran of the FBI, and William Cleveland, Smith's superior. Both are also said to have been her paramours.

Behind the headlines, there is plenty of discomfiture all around. It is yet another monumental embarrassment for the FBI and the Republican Party in the United States, whose leaders for years delivered blistering accusations of treason against the Democratic administration of president Bill Clinton for allegedly giving away state and military secrets to the Chinese.

...more...

Hmmmmm.... Always more questions than answers :eyes:

[UpInArms]

117. Refco IPO underwriters (incl Goldman Sachs) sued by shareholders

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-07T170433Z_01_N07304755_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-GOLDMAN-REFCO.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday disclosed that it and other underwriters of Refco Inc.'s August 2005 initial public offering are the subjects of a number of investor lawsuits.

Goldman said various suits seeking class action status are pending at Manhattan federal court, according to the firm's annual 10-K filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The suits allege violations of disclosure requirements and seek damages.

Derivative lawsuits, which seek damages on behalf of Refco (RFXCQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research), also complained that underwriters played a key role in the failure of Refco's board to fulfill its fiduciary duties.

Goldman said the lawsuits also name Refco Inc and its affiliates, some Refco officers and directors, majority investor Thomas H. Lee Partners LP and outside auditor Grant Thornton as defendants.

In addition, Goldman said it and other lead underwriters of the IPO are defendants in a suit intended to be a class action filed last month on behalf of customers that owned securities in the custody of Refco. These suits allege the company and its bankers published false and misleading information about Refco.

...more...

[UpInArms]

120. 3:05 EST losses accelerating

Dow 10,740.71 -57.56 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,241.70 -17.10 (-0.76%)
S&P 500 1,253.87 -11.15 (-0.88%)
10-Yr Bond 4.567 +0.22 (+0.48%)

NYSE Volume 1,857,386,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,739,111,000

3:00 pm : More of the same for stocks as sellers remain in control of the action heading into the final hour of trading. On a positive note, the Tech sector recently inched above the flat line but almost as quickly slipped back into the red, as anticipation of a solid report from Cisco Systems (CSCO 18.16 +0.33) and an analyst upgrade on Motorola (MOT 21.17 +0.64), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, have not been enough to offset losses in 60 of the sector's remaining 84 components. DJ30 -50.91 NASDAQ -17.36 SP500 -10.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2065/954/1.71 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2159/1051/1.38 bln

2:30 pm : Equities remain on the defensive as the market continues to languish near its worst levels of the day. While Energy (-3.1%) continues to pace the way lower, as oil prices appear poised to close down 3% for the session, another commodity losing just as much ground has been gold. Coupled with consolidation in steel, the year's best performing industry group (+31%), spot gold posting its biggest one-day decline in nearly 13 years has also weighed on Materials, the day's second worst performing sector (-2.3%). DJ30 -36.15 NASDAQ -14.52 SP500 -8.01 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2061/930/1.58 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2193/1013/1.26 bln

[UpInArms]

123. 3:44 EST heading for the close with "just a fleshwound"

Dow 10,762.49 -35.78 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,245.56 -13.24 (-0.59%)
S&P 500 1,255.85 -9.17 (-0.72%)
10-Yr Bond 4.567 +0.22 (+0.48%)

NYSE Volume 2,116,015,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,944,030,000

3:30 pm : Market showing no signs of improving going into the close as the broader market appears poised to finish near session lows. Separately, Dec. consumer credit, the day's only piece of economic news, recently checked in at $3.3 bln, a huge increase over November's -$0.6 bln but below the $5.0 bln consensus estimate. However, since the data are subject to massive revisions and because they are released well after every other consumer spending indicator, the market, per usual, has ignored the report. DJ30 -48.02 NASDAQ -15.30 SP500 -10.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2110/921/1.84 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2186/1039/1.52 bln

[UpInArms]

125. closing numbers and yada

Dow 10,749.76 -48.51 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 2,244.96 -13.84 (-0.61%)
S&P 500 1,254.78 -10.24 (-0.81%)
10-Yr Bond 4.567 +0.22 (+0.48%)

NYSE Volume 2,366,373,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,210,854,000

The major averages were weak across the board as ongoing worries of slowing profit growth prompted broad-based consolidation, closing nine of ten economic sectors lower. For the first time this month, inflation fears weren't cited as a catalyst behind underlying market weakness. Instead, a huge decline in oil prices (-3.1%) actually alleviated some concern that rising energy prices will accelerate and potentially crimp consumer spending. Nonetheless, oil's drubbing incited sellers to lock in some of the profits that have lifted Energy to a sector-leading 11.5% gain, which continues to play into our Overweight rating on the sector. Thus, the absence of Energy's leadership, especially since the sector accounts for the bulk of earnings growth on the S&P, merely added to lingering worries about earnings deceleration and exacerbated the lack of enthusiasm on the part of buyers to get the market back on track.

Turning in the day's second worst performance was Materials, as gold futures plunged in sympathy with oil -- one of the catalysts behind the precious commodity's continued attractiveness as an inflation hedge. Profit-taking in steel as well as diversified metals & mining, two of the year's Top Ten best performing S&P industry groups, also weighed on the sector.

On a positive note, Walt Disney (DIS 26.66 +1.70), a suggested holding in our Active Portfolio, posted strong Q1 (Dec) earnings but was one of only 9 Dow components to finish higher. To that end, the stock's 7% surge was unable to single-handedly lift Consumer Discretionary. Weighing most heavily on the sector was a disappointing FY06 sales forecast from Toll Brothers (TOL 29.55 -1.65) amid softening demand in a number of housing markets. Confirmation that General Motors (GM 22.88 -0.46) agreed to slash its dividend by 50%, especially during a time when so many companies flush with cash are returning value to shareholders in the form of dividend increases -- a source of market support, also weighed on sentiment.

The incentive to lock in profits also pressured Financials, as some investors took money off the table in the brokerage group while others used rising borrowing costs as a reason to stay away from rate-sensitive bank stocks. The 10-yr note closed down 5 ticks to yield 4.56% following a poor 3-yr note auction, which had a poor 22% showing on indirect bidder participation, and a lack of any notable economic data to perhaps set a more positive tone in the Treasuries market.

Technology, however, eked out a small gain and was the day's only sector to finish in the plus column, as investors remained optimistic that Cisco Systems' (CSCO 18.09 +0.26) strong track record of consistency would carry over into Q2 results, which were scheduled for release after the close. Upbeat analyst comments on Motorola (MOT 21.04 +0.51), another suggested holding, and NCR Corp (NCR 38.86 +1.20), as well as a late-day turnaround in semiconductor, also helped offset weakness in software and hardware. BTK -0.7% DJ30 -48.51 DJTA -1.4% DJUA -0.8% DOT -0.5% NASDAQ -13.84 NQ100 -0.3% R2K -1.5% SOX +0.1% SP400 -1.3% SP500 -10.24 XOI -3.4% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2070/967/2.13 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2185/1072/1.78 bln

[54anickel]

126. OT, but just got home from giving platlettes and caught the funeral

of Mrs. King while getting the blood sucked outta me. Anyone catch it? Rev. Lowery was just awesome. Found this link where I think you can watch it.

http://thinkprogress.org/2006/02/07/lowery-standing-ovation/

We know now there were no weapons of mass destruction over there. But Coretta knew and we know that there are weapons of misdirection right down here. Millions without health insurance. Poverty abounds. For war billions more but no more for the poor.