Reserves to Replace Iran Oil Substantial, IEA Says--Daily Star

[Gloria]

From the new World Media Watch up now at http://www.zianet.com/insightanalytical
Tomorrow at Buzzflash.com


4//The Daily Star, Lebanon Friday, February 10, 2006

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=10&categ_id=3&article_id=22093



RESERVES TO REPLACE IRAN OIL SUBSTANTIAL, IEA SAYS

By Agence France Presse (AFP)

PARIS: The International Energy Agency could call on strategic oil reserves to replace Iranian crude exports "for more than a year and a half" if Tehran were to cut off supplies, IEA executive director Claude Mandil told French radio BFM on Thursday.



"If ever, for whatever reason, there was a loss of supplies from Iran, which represent around 2.7 million barrels per day, strategic stocks managed by the IEA ... would be able to compensate for those lost 2.7 million bpd for a year and a half," he said.



"I therefore say to countries mandated to negotiate with Iran, I do not know what your plans are, but when you consider the different options, you do not have to worry about an eventual loss of Iranian oil because you have the means to deal with it."



(SNIP)

[rooboy]

1. Fucking hell. It sounds like Alan Greenspan is running the IEA.

"sure the supply is taken off the market, but if we steal it from over here nobody will notice..."

[Teaser]

2. IAE bullshits constantly

it's hilarious. they care more about public opinion than they do about accurate figures.

[daleo]

3. It sounds like someone is saying, it is OK to invade Iran

As long as you can secure the oil within a year or so.

[400Years]

13. how long has it been now and they can't get the oil out of Iraq?

it'll take way longer than a year to get Iranian oil back on line.

[twaddler01]

16. that is what i got out of it....

[hatrack]

4. What a bunch of crap - demand's within 1mbd of production limits . . .

Maybe 1.5 mbd - MAYBE - and they're smoking some primo shit. Fucking ridiculous.

[Strelnikov_]

8. Following Is Don Evans Take On Oil Supply, Fmr. Commerce Sec./Chimp Pal

I have reached the conclusion they are fully aware of peak oil. Maybe Ruppert is closer to the truth that I ever imagined.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/2/6/82022/41225

. . .

EVANS: Chris, that is my bottom line. The world is producing oil, the Middle East, every country at its full capacity and it's very unlikely that we're going to be able to see supply in the world grow from the levels where we are right now. There's a debate about that. I'm one that falls in the camp that says it's going to be very, very hard to do that. But what I do know is China needs to continue to grow, India needs to continue to grow, America needs to continue to grow. So what that simply says is we've got to develop new forms of energy for the United States and the world.


Cheney in '99, Energy Task Force in '01, Evans the other day. How can anyone doubt that what we are seeing are the opening acts of what Heinberg calls the 'Last Man Standing' scenario.

[hatrack]

9. Hell's bells, even Exxon and Shell concede non-OPEC peak by 2010

And the IEA is spinning this kind of bullshit? Do they really think we're going to get all distracted looking for the pony buried in all the crap.

Unbelievable.

[leesa]

5. Now there's a plan! DOH!

[FormerRepublican]

6. Lordie, instead of sounding reassuring, this sounds scary.

All this Iran propaganda worries me. The only question is - which will happen first - Bush Impeachment or Iran Invasion?

[reprobate]

11. Doesn't matter. Invasion will result in impeachment.

[Strelnikov_]

7. Technically Correct

The US SPR has 700 Mbbl, or 260 days at 2.7 Mbbl/dy.

Thing is, if we use up these stockpiles on a mission to simply slow Iran getting the big one, what do we do when:

- Nigeria falls into chaos.
- Venezula gets tired of dealing with us and sells out to Chindia.
- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, <insert ME oil producer here> fall to civil war.
- Massive hurricanes knock GOM production off-line (Ivan in 04, Katrina in 05, . . . )

And then there is this:



We may need that stockpile to provide some limited mitigation for depletion.

[Zynx]

10. The thing that is really bad is how rapidly US production is declining.

My understand is that our domestic production is on a steep downward trajectory or at least soon will be.

[High Plains]

18. I think US domestic production peaked in the 1970s

[dysfunctional press]

12. and when wahabi fundamentalists shut down saudi arabia too-

then what happens...?
(and iraq will naturally have their pipelines sabotaged...)

it could be a real pickle.

[NickB79]

14. Say we do break Iran's will in an oil fight

Worldwide emergency oil reserves will have been severely depleted and can't be left empty due to national security concerns. They will have to be refilled, and Iran and other oil-producing nations will make a huge profit from this. The worldwide scramble to get enough oil for refilling reserves could jack prices up just as much as an Iranian oil embargo would by creating excessive demand on an oil-producing system already pumping at maximum capacity.

Think about it. The oil in many of these reserves was put in there when oil was only $10-$30/barrel. Now it's over $60/barrel. It will cost us dearly to refill our oil reserves after an embargo with Iran, because you know oil won't drop in price back to earlier years.

[Tight_rope]

15. Ok...Here we go...Step 3...Getting ready for War with Iran!

[WhiteTara]

17. I wonder how many lied about how much

they have in strategic reserves. All the oil companies have