France detects first case of bird flu

[Wordie]

France detects first case of bird flu

By Sybille de La Hamaide 29 minutes ago

PARIS (Reuters) - France has detected its first case of bird flu on a duck found in eastern France, although it was not yet clear the fowl was carrying the deadly H5N1 strain transmissible to humans, the farm ministry said on Friday.

"The test showed the H5 virus was present and had strong similarities with the H5N1 Asian influenza," it said.

...The pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus has spread from Asia to Europe and Africa, infecting 169 people and killing at least 91 and leading to the destruction of millions of birds.

...France said in a statement it had immediately installed a security zone of three kilometers (two miles) around the spot where the bird was found. Veterinarians would check all birds in that zone, in accordance with emergency measures planned by the European Union.

(Additional reporting by Catherine Lagrange in Lyon, Valerie Parent in Paris)

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060217/ts_nm/birdflu_france_duck_dc;_ylt=As5D7_iQ.p8d4m8aASlsekhvaA8F;_ylu=X3oDMTA5aHJvMDdwBHNlYwN5bmNhdA--

[FormerRepublican]

1. And with DHS and Skeletor in charge of US detection, we might find out...

...the US has cases of bird flu about 10 years after everyone has died from the pandemic. Lordie, thinking that DHS will be in charge of a pandemic response has me :scared:.

[Wordie]

3. Yeah...I worry about it too. Especially after the Katrina screw ups. nt

[stepnw1f]

4. I Wonder What the Chances are of Everyone on this Forum

getting infected and dying. I don't know how much longer I can keep producing enough Serotonin to help fight this.

[tocqueville]

6. OK, there is no panic here

the birdflu strain doesn't contaminate from human to human. You have to practically sleep with a contaminated chicken and come in contact with its feces to get contaminated. A normal healthy person then taken at a early stage has very good chances to survive.

The biggest problem is for farm poultry, not for humans. So far nobody has died in Europe (and nobody been contaminated). Because here the measures, prevention and treatement (in case of contamination) are not at 3rd world level.

Talk about making a bird out of a feather

[stepnw1f]

7. I Hope So....

But this Bird Flu, from what I have read, is mutating, is it not?

[SaveElmer]

21. All flu's mutate...

That is why you have to get a new shot every year. However the species barrier is significant, and a significant and sustained mutation must occur for it to become even weakly transmissable. Rather than an explosion of human infections from an H2H mutation, I suspect it will come on fairly slowly giving time for containment, if it happens at all.

[Critters2]

28. That sounds an awful lot like

evolution talk! We don't go for that kind of thing 'round here. God put that virus on the earth just as it is. 7000 years ago. Don't you forget it.

:sarcasm:

[Wordie]

10. You're right, we shouldn't panic, but...

as I understand it, this new strain (H5N1) really presents a danger that the earlier bird flu strains did not. This is because it can spread to humans and because it mutates with such great rapidity. Most of us don't come in contact with birds much at all, so that really isn't the issue. But the fear is that once there are enough bird-to-human transmissions of the H5N1 strain, that it will mutate, and human-to-human transmission will occur. The spread at that point will be extremely rapid (in part because there is so much more travel between countries than there ever has been in the past).

I don't think anyone should panic, but they should educate themselves about the threat.

Here's a link to the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) page on the bird flu, which includes the things that people can do to stay safe, if there is an outbreak:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avian/index.htm

Edited to add:

National Public Radio had some pretty extensive information on the bird flu, here: http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4949542&sourceCode=gaw

And here's some wiki info (more technical information at this link):
H5N1 is a highly pathogenic form of avian influenzavirus. Since 1997, outbreaks of H5N1 flu have caused the death or culling of tens of millions of birds. Over 100 people have been infected by H5N1, with a mortality rate of over 50%. H5N1 has been the focus of much concern amid warnings that the H5N1 strain will likely evolve into a form that causes a global human pandemic with a very high mortality rate. As of November 1, 2005, 184 cases of infections in humans, resulting in 85 deaths, have been confirmed outside of China.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza

And I ordinarily don't link to anything from FAUX news, but this seemed like a sensible article:
Flu Fears: What You Can Do
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,176374,00.html

(There are lots of other sites with good info out there on the web, too.)

[tocqueville]

11. this above is correct but...

1) it hasn't mutated YET. It might mutate, but it might not. Maybe a simimar virus will mutate in the future. Probably for it to mutate into a "human form" it should need mass epidemics of both birdflu and of common influenza virus at the same time and in the same location.

2) it's obvious that the preventive measures against birdflu taken in the western countries will result in minimal contamination of farm poultry if any contamination at all, to the difference from 3rd world countries. For example in Nigeria the pricefall on poultry can lead to consumtion of sick poultry ! which won't happen here.

3) 100 people have been infected yes but in all cases it was 3rd world people with no knowmedge of the disease and having poultry inside the house contaminating by feces and probably drinking water. The children were playing with poultry. Besides that, some family members got infected, some not even if they were living in the same environment.

so the most important thing to do is to contain the virus to the wild birdlife and monitor this later very closely. This is not very difficult to do during migrations.

If, and I say If we get a mutation in a 3rd world country and a human form starts spreading, that's a different story. But it will probably be possible to contain the disease there in a way it was not possible to do with previous serious pandemics like the Spanish influenza. But the historical conditions were different.

[Wordie]

14. Again, the concern in the US doesn't have to do with bird-to-human

transmission issues. You are completely correct that our food inspection and handling procedures are far superior to those of many other countries. But that's not what the problem is.

Rather, the worry for the US is that once human-to-human transmission begins to occur in other countries (which I understand has not yet happened at this time), the virulence and rapid transmission of the disease means it will come to the US along with human travelers and spread from there, human-to-human. The last I read, the fatality rate was 50%, so even though some appear to have a natural immunity, this is a serious threat.

And again the concern is that the conditions of the modern world, with greatly increased travel and interaction between countries, and therefore exponentially increased opportunities for the avian flu to spread, along with the virulence of the particular strain, will make it a larger threat than the Spanish influenza pandemic, which was so destructive in the early parts of the last century.

I don't want to be an alarmist, but it's important for people to understand that there is a threat, and why.

[tocqueville]

17. true, but the actual general situation allows efficient quarantine

at least from the ouside of a country. It's more difficult if it gets inside, but a town can get quarantined, even if of course it would put a tremendous strain if it was a major city. I think that the comparison with the Spanish Influenza is not really fair, because the conditions then were very different (remember it was under a World War) and the concept of a virus wasn't really understood at that time. many of the quarantines came late and were poorly enforced.

but being vigilant is of course necessary. I am afraid that in the worst case we could see major effects in the third world and minor effects in the developped countries. And that is bad enough.

[Wordie]

26. CNN: Australian report (seems to confirm worse problems will be in Asia)

Bird flu 'could take 142m lives'
Worst case economic cost is $4.4 trillion


Geese look out of a barn in western Germany. All domestic birds in that country have been ordered kept indoors starting next week.

SYDNEY, Australia (CNN) -- As many as 142 million people around the world could die if bird flu turns into a "worst case" influenza pandemic, according to a sobering new study of its possible consequences.

...In its "ultra" or worst-case scenario, Hong Kong's economy is halved, the large-scale collapse of Asian economic activity causes global trade flows to dry up, and money flows out to safe havens in North America and Europe. Deaths could top 28 million in China and 24 million in India.

But the new Lowy Institute report, by the Australian National University's Prof. Warwick McKibbin and research fellow Dr Alexandra Sidorenko, says the major difficulty with influenza vaccine development is "the need to hit the constantly moving target as the virus mutates very rapidly."

Their observation follows a scientific study released last week which said bird flu was much more diverse than previously thought, with at least four distinct types of the deadly H5N1 virus (Full story).

In the worst scenario, it said the death toll could reach 28.4 million in China, 24 million in India, 11.4 million in Indonesia, 4.1 million in the Philippines, 2.1 million in Japan, 2.0 million in the United States and 5.6 million in Europe. In the world's least developed countries, the toll could top 33 million.

[SaveElmer]

30. This is the problem I have with the media coverage...

If you read that report, it lays out 4 scenarios, not just one. And of course 95% of the media coverage is on the ultra - meaning worst case - scenario. In fact, the "ultra" scenario is the least likely to happen. You just don't get any balance whatsoever, and it drives me nuts!

[Wordie]

34. I agree with what you are saying,

its just that nobody really knows for sure what will happen. And even if what we see in the US is only, say, a 10th of the numbers presented in the worst case, by the numbers that the study presented, that would mean 2 million deaths in the US. That would still be an unbelievable disaster.

:sigh: I'm hoping there is some sort of medical breakthrough, to cure the avian flu, before it strikes. Doesn't sound likely from what I've read.

That study also predicted severe worldwide economic effects.

OK, I'm done with this thread. It's depressing.

[SaveElmer]

20. Couple of things...

There is no evidence, as you point out, of any sustained H2H transmission.

The mortality rate is not actually known. The rate you cite is of known infections. Until blood studies are completed, we do not know how many were infected and were asymptomatic, or were not sick enough to require hospitalization. In 1997, studies showed a large number of people with H5N1 antibodies who did not get sick. There was a recent statistical study of farmers in Vietnam which pointed this way as well. It is also noted that no poultry workers, or those culling flocks have become ill, even though many were not dressed properly, indicating perhaps some immunity. If you looked at the yearly influenza outbreak here in the US only by counting those hospitalized, it would look pretty bad too. So not all information on this is in

As to the comparison with the Spanish Flu, in reality then you had a daily stream of sick soldiers shuttling to and from Europe during the war. No real attempt to quarantine, no way to rapidly gain information on outbreaks, and of course no medication. Some such as Dr. Paul Ewald (and others), believe the 1918 virus was virulent because it was able to pass easily among an immobile and closely bunched host population at the western front. He points to evidence that the virus initially did not seem to be all that virulent, and that a virulent strain gained dominance in this way. These conditions do not exist now, except among birds.

[pitohui]

5. there has been bird flu in usa for decades if not centuries

maybe not this particular strain but usda routinely deals w. bird flu and does a fine job of containing it, indeed, at times an over-zealous job in my book, they are not shy to de-populate the infected

exhibit a -- the fact that people who don't know the poultry industry actually believe there has never been bird flu in usa

that's pretty good proof to me that they keep things well contained as necessary

[Wordie]

16. True, but this is different strain, far more virulent, w/higher fatalities

so there is reason for concern. See posts #10 and #14 for a little more info.

[pitohui]

22. there is v. little reason for concern

higher fatalities than what? around 200 fatalities worldwide -- i'd be hard-pressed to name any disease w. so few fatalities

the current bird flu scam is strictly to sell tami-flu and plump up rumsfeld's stock portfolio

and we're falling for it

i suspect as a frequent traveler married to someone who frequently goes into poultry facilities that i have a little better handle on whether or not to be concerned than you do -- and i'm not concerned

all this hoo-ha is bogus

if i wanted to get paranoid abt mutations i'd be paranoid abt the virus that spreads cervival cancer suddently mutating into a more aggressive form or i'd be paranoid abt a thousand other illnesses mutating into more severe forms before i'd lay awake at night getting all anxious just to put more $$$ in rumsfeld's pocket

we can fantasize abt all kinds of horrible mutations when writing science fiction but most don't happen

remember when the bubonic plague was going to go airborne in new mexico in the 80s and wipe out the human race? maybe you're too young for that one -- and there actually is an airborne form in existence, it just doesn't turn out to be all that interested in wiping out the human race

[Wordie]

23. Reports say that 50% of those that contract it die.

The issue has more to do with the fatality rate, rather than the raw numbers at this point, it seems to me.

I understand that there are those who don't think it's a real threat. Yet there are organizations that I trust that say it is (such as NPR and PBS, linked elsewhere in this thread). Some of the people who I've seen objecting don't have valid arguments, according to what I've read (for instance they confuse H5N1 with more garden variety types of avian flu, or don't understand that the concern in this country isn't really about bird-to-human transmission so much, but that it might be carried here from infected person(s) coming from some other country).

Not that you don't raise good issues about those who might want to stir concern in order to make money. I just think people should read the articles from the reputable sources and then make up their own minds. I don't think anyone should panic, just read and understand the things a person can do to be as safe as possible (an increased attention to simple hygiene measures, such as handwashing, is reported to help).

Here's an article that gives a chronology (it seems like the cases are increasing rapidly):

A chronology of the spread of bird flu
Published: 2/18/2006

PARIS - Since the first human infections in Hong Kong in 1997, the H5N1 avian flu virus has reportedly infected 187 people worldwide, killing 97, and spread westwards across Europe and into Africa. The World Health Organisation lists 169 cases since 2003, including 91 fatalities, mostly in Vietnam (42), Indonesia (18), Thailand (14), China (8), Cambodia (4), Turkey (4) and Iraq (1):

- May 1997: A three-year-old boy is the first of six people to die in Hong Kong of a mysterious virus, later identified as H5N1.

- Feb 2003: A father and son are diagnosed in Hong Kong with H5N1 after a trip to southern China. The father dies and a probe by the World Health Organization (WHO) discovers one of the boy's sisters had died in China.

- Dec 2003: South Korea confirms an outbreak of the virus in birds and slaughters more than 2.5 million chickens and ducks.

- Jan 2004: Vietnam reports 13 human deaths. H5N1 outbreaks are reported in Laos, Cambodia, Indonesia, Japan, China, Pakistan and Thailand.

- Feb 2004: First avian cases confirmed in the United States and Canada.

- Aug 2004: Three more die in Vietnam. Outbreak reported in Malaysia.

- Jan 2005: First of four fatalities in Cambodia.

- July 2005: One person dies in Indonesia.

- Aug 2005: Avian virus reported in Kazakhstan, Mongolia and Russian Siberia.

- Oct 2005: H5N1 kills thousands of turkeys in northwestern Turkey. Russia, China, Croatia and Romania confirm new outbreaks. Britain discovers the virus in a quarantined bird. One person dies in Thailand.

- Nov 2005: Vietnam reports 42nd human bird flu death. Kuwait discovers the H5N1 strain in a flamingo. One person dies in China.

- Dec 2005: A five-year-old boy dies in Thailand. The death toll in Indonesia rises to 11. Avian outbreaks in Ukraine and Romania.

-- 2006 --

- Jan 4: Boy dies in Turkey, in the first H5N1 death outside Southeast Asia and China. Two of his sisters die of the disease soon thereafter.

- Jan 11: WHO officials announce two more deaths in China in December. Turkey reports avian outbreaks in 15 of the country's 81 provinces.

- Jan 12: 13th death reported in Indonesia.

- Jan 17: Turkey confirms fourth death.

- Jan 18: 1.5 billion dollars pledged internationally. Sixth death in China.

- Jan 21: 14th death in Indonesia.

- Jan 25: Doctors in Turkey report mortality rate of less than 20 percent as two more children recover.

- Jan 25: China reports seventh victim.

- Jan 29: H5N1 detected in birds in Cyprus.

- Jan 30: WHO announces rapid-response plan to detect and contain a global flu pandemic.

- Jan 31: The United Nations reports 160 human cases to date, 85 fatal. Avian cases reported in Ukraine.

- Feb 2: 15th fatality in Indonesia.

- Feb 6: Kurdish health officials in northern Iraq report two fatalities.

- Feb 8: H5N1 turns up in Africa for the first time, at a commercial chicken farm in Nigeria.

- Feb 8: China culls 200,000 chickens.

- Feb 9: Indonesia reports 17th casualty. Hong Kong on alert after more avian cases detected.

- Feb 10: China announces eighth human bird flu death. Two more avian cases found in Hong Kong. H5N1 detected in Azerbaijan.

- Feb 11: Indonesia reports 18th fatality. H5N1 confirmed in Italy, Greece and Bulgaria. UN bird flu chief warns virus is two mutations from a form that can spread easily between people.

- Feb 12: Nigerian doctors test two sick children from bird flu zone.

- Feb 13: Hong Kong officials search homes to enforce ban on domestic poultry.

- Feb 14: H5N1 detected in dead swans in Austria and Germany. Iran says 135 swans died of H5 bird flu in the northwest. Animal health experts say wild bird migration means outbreak inevitable in Europe.

- Feb 15: Germany confirms H5N1 in dead swans from island in Baltic Sea. EU bans feather imports.

- Feb 16: Austria detects third H5N1 case in swan from southern city of Graz. European Union announces rules for three-kilometer (two-mile) protection zones and 10-kilometer surveillance zones for all wild bird flu cases. H5N1 confirmed to date in Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Germany, Greece, Italy, Romania, Slovenia, Ukraine and Russia. Greek farmer fined 6,000 euros (7,120 dollars) for failing to confine chickens.

- Feb 17: Egypt confirms seven cases of the lethal virus in poultry. World Organisation for Animal Health says colossal effort needed to halt disease in Africa. Slovenia confirms first H5N1 case involving a dead swan.

02/17/2006 18:12 GMT

http://www.turkishpress.com/news.asp?id=108660

[Mojorabbit]

24. You can add India to the list

and France today

[SaveElmer]

27. Read other sources...

There is varied opinion on the likelihood of an outbreak...

And in truth the mortality rate is not known. The 50% refers to the mortality of those KNOWN infected. In other words those sick enough to be hospitalized. It is unknown, until blood surveys are done, how many actually have been infected. In 1997 tests showed a significant number of people in Hong Kong had H5N1 antibodies in their system though were never sick. A recent statistical study indicated the same in Vietnam. Also, there have been no known infections among poultry workers on large farms, or among those culling flocks - even though in many cases they were not wearing the correct protective gear.

[Wordie]

29. I don't have a link, but...

It seems to me I read someplace quite a while ago that some of what you are saying, about an immunity among those who work with birds, might not apply to those who do not ordinarily work with birds. I guess the idea is that the immunity may come from some sort of earlier exposure.

I know there are a variety of opinions on the avian flu. Again, I just think the best approach may be to read as much as possible, and not reject the reports out of hand, but to try to be prepared as best as possible. When I say "prepared," btw, I don't mean rushing out and going nuts, trying to get tamiflu. But thinking about the situation, and trying to learn what we might expect, and learning about those simple things that will make people safer (like frequent handwashing, for instance).

After all, there were some who were so convinced that the hurricane warnings were overblown that they didn't evacuate...

[pitohui]

37. yeah well guess what

i'll continue to travel the world

my husband will continue to work at his job

we'll continue to own and to associate w. birds tame and wild

and we will infuriate you by refusing to die

the risk is so close to zero as to be of negligible concern to anyone who has a grip on mathematics

and p.s. i live in new orleans, we evacuated just fine, just because you can't evaluate risk properly don't mean we can't

[depakid]

32. Sounds like you don't know much about influenza

because virologists and public health officials all over the world are (and have been) extremely concerned about reassortment and mutation.

The consensus is that it's all but inevitable.

And as the virus spreads- the probabilities of that rise exponentially.

[woodsprite]

2. Nah, * is salivating at the fact that it will get here sooner or later.

The minute it does, it's martial law.

[PVK]

8. If you asked me they planted it. n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

9. 3k security zone?

On flying animals?

:freak:

[tocqueville]

12. no it means that all poultry/ suspicious cases are treated

within the zone the dead bird has been found. Dead birds don't fly.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

13. This is what I'm getting my reading from:

Veterinarians would check all birds in that zone, in accordance with emergency measures planned by the European Union.


All birds means all birds, doesn't it?



Or else they would have said all dead birds. Point me to where it says "suspiscious cases."


Help a brother out.

[tocqueville]

15. not all wild birds, but all tame birds

if you find a dead bird (without being shot) or or wild birds weakened by disease and identify the virus as a cause, you reinforce the checking in 3 km zone around, by checking EVERY bird in the nearest farms. It's mainly a question of checking birds in open range, the ones farmed indoors are not likely to be contaminated. Contamination occurs seldom by direct contact between the wild ones and the tame ones. But waterpoints on open ranges (used for ducks, geese, perhaps chickens) can be a source of contamination through feces of sick wild birds. Anyway open farming is now temporarily forbidden in France.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

33. From the article:

France has detected its first case of bird flu on a duck found in eastern France...

It doesn't tell us us whether the duck was wild or "tame." Found? How did they find it? Was it alive or dead? Was it found in a foie gras pate factory or laying on the ground twitching?


Crap journalism.

[Mojorabbit]

25. They have found asymptomatic ducks

that are carriers so the dead birds don't fly argument is moot

[rfkrfk]

18. how long does wine need to be boiled, to make it safe? n/t

[sarcasmo]

19. Just a hunch, but don't you think our first case of bird flu will come in

October. Mid term elections being in November the masses need to be scared of something.

[Orrin_73]

31. This bird flu is nothing more then storm in a glass

It was said that millions will die until now 91 people died. In the mean time Pharmaceutical companies made billions.
Pharmaceutical companies

[depakid]

35. Gee, that must be why

Public health officals all over the globe have been freaking out for the past several years....

All those countries must be in the pockets of the phamaceutical industry- that's why they're all just "over-reacting."

[Orrin_73]

36. Look at this column by Charley Reese

I agree with him on bird flu.
Don't Worry About Bird Flu

[depakid]

38. I think I'll cast my lot with the scientists

Not to say worry and panic- but don't think this isn't serious.

The toruble is most Americans have become jaded after being lied to so often the last 5 or 6 years that it's hard to imagine that, yes- in fact really bad news can sometimes still be really bad news, no matter who may stand to profit from it.