Some lawmakers say Japan should consider nuclear option

[UpInArms]

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2003/11/11/latest/14883Somelawma&sec=latest

TOKYO (AP) - Nearly one-fifth of the members of Japan's lower house of Parliament believe Japan should consider the option of possessing nuclear weapons if the international situation warrants it, a major newspaper reported Tuesday.

Japan has no nuclear weapons, and possessing them would be a huge switch in longstanding policy in a country where even discussing the possession of nuclear weapons has long been taboo.

Japan suffered the only atomic bomb attacks ever launched, with hundreds of thousands of people killed or injured in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 during World War II.

<snip>

The newspaper attributed the results to heightened concerns in this country over Iraq and the threat from North Korea, which may already possess nuclear weapons and has demonstrated the capability to fire missiles with a range long enough to reach most of Japan.

...more...

(edited because they have a typo in their headline and I couldn't stand it looking so stupid)

[Art_from_Ark]

1. According to the original article (in Japanese)

http://www.mainichi.co.jp/news/flash/seiji/20031111k0000m010117000c.html

Raw numbers:
A total of 83 (or 17%) of the 480 Diet members elected in this past election want to consider the nuclear option. The key word here in Japanese is "kento-subeki", which usually implies (from a political sense) studying something to death, then hoping it will go away. As the article mentions, "merely agreeing to consider the option is not necessarily a sign of being in favor of nuclear armament-- there is a big difference." The Mainichi article goes on to state that actual nuclear armament would be tantamount to withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and implies that such an action could mean isolation for Japan, much like what is happening to North Korea.

At any rate, of this number, 63 are from the ruling LDP (26% of the 240 LDP lower house members), and 10 are from the Democratic Party (out of 177 members). The other 10 are presumably from the other two conservative parties, i.e. the New Komei-to and the Conservatives (who just merged with the LDP).

[DuctapeFatwa]

2. Payback's a bitch now, ain't she?

There is no free lunch.

[NickB79]

3. If even the Japanese want nukes

It gives me little hope that we will ever see significant nuclear disarmament in my lifetime. I mean, the Japanese of all people should know the horrors nuclear weapons cause, and they still want them?

[Art_from_Ark]

5. Please read my post about the original article

Nukes are not something that "the Japanese" want. The original article stated that only people who were recently elected to the Diet-- not the Japanese people at large-- were given a questionnaire about their feelings about joining the Nuclear Club. Of the 480 members who received the questionnaire, only 17% said that this is something that "should be considered" ("kento-subeki"). In Japanese political parlance, this means that they may agree, in principle, with the concept of *debating* the idea, but do not necessarily agree that Japan should actually build nuclear weapons.

Remember also that 83% of the Diet members did not even want to consider the idea!

[LifeDuringWartime]

4. irony knows no boundaries

n/t

[LeftistGorilla]

6. If Japan really wants nukes...

China will be pissed

[Art_from_Ark]

7. Japan DOESN'T want nukes, OK?

Only 17% of the Diet members expressed an interest in even discussing the idea. That means that 83% of the Diet members do NOT want to touch the subject. There is no public support for building nuclear weapons in this country.

[LeftistGorilla]

10. 17% do want nukes, OK?

and you don't think this number could possibly grow seeing as how North Korea has/will have nukes and the US has its hands full in Iraq and Afghanistan...

[Art_from_Ark]

12. Once again, for the umpteenth time

The article does NOT state that 17% of Japanese want nuclear weapons, fer cryin' out loud! It says that 17% of the members who were recently elected to the Japanese Diet expressed an INTEREST in CONSIDERING the topic. The original Mainichi article (did you read it?) makes the point that CONSIDERING is NOT the same as IMPLEMENTING. The Mainichi article also makes the point that Japan could become ISOLATED in East Asia if the country pursued this course.

[sendero]

8. I realize this will be unpopular...

.... but if I had the neighbors Japan has, I'd want deterrent nukes. Period.

[Art_from_Ark]

9. Japan has plenty of conventional deterrents

And the threat from North Korea is way overblown.

What Japan DOESN'T need is to set off an arms race in this part of the world.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

11. Listen to Art--he actually lives in Japan

and speaks Japanese and has Japanese in-laws and Japanese employers.

Over the 25+ years since I lived in Japan, I've seen more inaccurate or overblown news coverage than I can count.

I'm not nearly as immersed in the Japanese environment as Art is, but I get the same impression. Every family there was touched by World War II, whether it was losing a relative in battle or in aerial bombings or from starvation, and anti-war feelings are strong in a visceral way that's hard to appreciate if you haven't witnessed them.

I suspect that if the Diet ever made any serious moves toward acquiring nukes, there would be riots in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and probably in other cities as well.

Such Japanese media as are available to me in Minneapolis (satellite news broadcasts, newspapers over the Internet) give the impression that this "nuke rattling" is a reflection of dissatisfaction with the continued U.S. military presence.

Once the official Occupation was over, the large U.S. military presence was justified as defending Japan against China. Now that Japan is using China as its own Mexico (exporting manufacturing jobs and attracting illegal immigrants at the same time), defense against China no longer seems particularly urgent.

As far as North Korea is concerned, even the loons running that country have to know that if they ever actually used their nukes, the U.S. and other countries would make sure that there was nothing left of their country.

It's not well known, but although Japan isn't supposed to have a military, it has a "Self-Defense Force," which is a well-equipped land, sea, and air-based defense system, a military force in every sense except the name, and among the top fifteen military forces in the world in terms of numbers. They'd be quite capable of handling any non-nuclear threat, should the North Koreans or anyone else be so stupid as to challenge them.

[Art_from_Ark]

13. Inaccurate/overblown news coverage

You can say that again!

That reminds me of a couple of old issues of Time Asia that I picked up the other day (and am currently loaning out to Japanese friends). One edition, from February 11(?), 2002, shows a rendition of what appears to be a Hokuzai geisha with a tear coming down her cheek. The headline reads: JAPAN'S SOB STORY. Under that is: Unemployment. Bad government. Recession. And Japan's long national nightmare is about to get even worse

Contrast that with the cover of August 11, 2003 featuring pop singer Sheena-san: Japan Rules! OK! Music! Video games! Even convenience stores! A look at Asia's pop culture superpower!

Wow! What a difference a year and a half made!

Of course, no one I have shown these magazines to has noticed any difference whatsoever between February of last year and today. However, more that one person has pointed out that February 2002 was the time that Bu$h made his first visit to Japan, and August 2003 was around the time that Koizumi was promising to send SDF troops to Iraq.

[paulk]

23. I have some close friends who lived in Japan

one who married a Japanese man, and they now live here in the states

It's always been my understanding, talking to them, that there is no way the Japanese people would accept a nuke program - it's the stuff of riots in the streets.

There's always been a right wing militaristic faction in the gov't. - is it your opinion that they're gaining strength? Or is this article total hyperbole?

[dArKeR]

14. Poll reveals taste for nuke option - Taipei Times

But survivors of the A-bomb attacks on Japan expressed disappointment.

"As more young people become lawmakers, fewer have experienced war, and they don't know the suffering nuclear weapons cause," said Nagasaki survivor Terumi Tanaka, who heads a survivors' support group.

http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/world/archives/2003/11/12/2003075545

We're witnessing the rise of the nuclear sun.

[Art_from_Ark]

16. Oh, for Pete's sake, for the hundredth time

This Taipei Times article is just the same article that was posted before.

And the wording of the questionnaire is "consider", not "implement".

And it's only 17% of the Diet that even want to consider this.

That means that 83% do not want to consider this.

[Minstrel Boy]

15. Hell, some days, I want Canada to have nukes

Thank you, Former Governor Bush, for making the world safe for nuclear proliferation.

:nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke: :nuke:

[David__77]

17. A nuclear Japan is unacceptable.

Japan has yet to even atone for its criminal aggression against Japan, Korea and other neighbors. It must apologize and make sincere amends before anyone will sympathize with their "plight."

[Forkboy]

18. what is their "plight"?

[molok555]

19. THANK YOU, ART!!!

For injecting some level-headedness into this thread. As someone once said, Japan going nuclear would be a matter of weeks, if not days. They certainly have the technology for it. What's stopping them? The fact that a LARGE majority of the nation would NEVER accept it. In addition to what Lydia said, not many are aware that Japan is in the top 5 of military expenditures worldwide. In other words, they have PLENTY of conventional deterent.

A quick cultural note as well: a lot of time in Japan, deep consideration is a nice way of saying, "Forget it".

[Forkboy]

20. Hey...just like my parents!

a lot of time in Japan, deep consideration is a nice way of saying, "Forget it".

:)

[Abaques]

21. Although I will bow to what Art has posted....

I wonder if the Japanese mindset might change if the Korean situation got hot.... what would it take for probably the only country in the world that can compete technologically with the USA to develop nukes?



I guess Germany could compete too, but they don't have any nation that is anything close to the relatively direct threat that N. Korea provides to Japan.


I dunno, any thoughts Art?

[Kellanved]

22. Germany has shut down its nuclear program

The main research facility (Karlsruhe) has no critical reactor left, all power plants are to be shut down.
The experimental reprocessing plant has been dismantled, the working one(Hanau) sold to Russia.
The fast breeder Plant (Kalkar) has been turned into a theme park; the Plutonium (huge ammounts) sold to the US.

So while Germany has the know-how to develop nukes, it has recently lost the means to actually build them (rumor has it that a 60s programs to produce nuke kits (to circumvent the ban) was completed, but that's only a rumor).






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