Killer H5N1 virus spreads

[WhiteTara]

are we on the verge of losing the birds?
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,18199118-23109,00.html
HE deadly H5N1 bird flu virus was identified today in India and Iran, continued to spread in Europe and claimed another victim in Indonesia, though Nigeria claimed to be bringing it under control.
Indian state government officials said a laboratory had confirmed the country's first outbreak of the virus in chickens.

"Fifty thousand birds have died. We have sent dead birds to the highest level laboratory in (the city of) Bhopal," said Anees Ahmed, minister for animal husbandry for western Maharashtra state.

"They have confirmed H5N1 bird flu" in chickens, he said.

Late today, government officials said several humans were being tested for the virus, with four under hospital observation.

Iran said 135 wild swans found dead at the Caspian Sea coast have tested positive for the highly pathogenic H5N1 strain of bird flu, the first cases of the virus to be confirmed in the Islamic republic.
:scared:

[lovuian]

1. Wow its getting to be everywhere

sad day for the birds and for the world!!!

[Greeby]

2. .....

:yoiks:

[adriennui]

3. just wondering

if chicken was eliminated from our diet would we still be susceptible? or is it airborne?

interesting news....the chimp is allowing for the processing of US raised chicken in china then returned here for sale. brilliant, huh?

[TomInTib]

5. NO NO NO! This can only be passed from fowl to human by direct

contact.

The little girls in Turkey caught it by playing with chicken heads for weeks. They were snowed in and the heads were the only toys they had, according to their mother.

So if you are not into raw chicken blood or entrails from Third World chickens, you have nothing to worry about.

There have been NO DOCUMENTED CASES of human-to-human infection.

You are in far more danger of disaster when you step off the curb.

[megatherium]

8. I thought there had been human-to-human cases (in families), but it's

still very difficult to catch it that way. The fear of course is that it is only a matter of time before there's another mutation and H5N1 becomes a human pandemic virus. Dunno what the odds of that are, you keep hearing it's inevitable.

[TomInTib]

11. If, indeed, that should happen, no existing vaccine would be viable.

Funny, NBC Nightly News is screaming about H5N1 as I type this.

[SaveElmer]

12. This whole thing is so eerily familiar...

The same kind of reaction to Swine Flu. I remember health experts predicting with certainty that Swine Flu was going to be pandemic.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

61. yeah-how stupid-Nothing bad ever happens on earth-just a conspiracy theory

go shopping is the best advice

[zann725]

91. Yeah, the long, long predicted outbreak of this...a year or more in ahead

is odd indeed. I would put nothing past Powers-that-Be killing-off the masses (through no traceable fault of their own.) Blame it on the Birds. After all, in a "new world order" vision, far less people would be needed to run things...the masses just getting in the way, costing too much to "socially maintain" things...particularly if and when the masses become sickly and/or elderly.

In such a "vision", the few needed would be big land/corporate owners. The rest of us would just be in the way...our "properties" up for grabs via Eminent Domain law changes, with the few rich remaining. innoculated against the very bird flue they themselves created/ mutated.

But that's far too Draconian, tin-foiley. So just blame it on the birds...

[adriennui]

14. so, in other words,

it's another attempt to "scare" us.....only georgie the chimp et al. will know how to protect us.
more BS.

[Evergreen Emerald]

22. like they did before 9/11 or Katrina?

Yikes!

[Henny Penny]

52. Here is a report from german tv on the outbreak

there.

I don't think you need to speak german to see whats going on...

http://www.heute.de/ZDFmediathek/inhalt/0/0,4070,3899776-6-wm_dsl,00.html

[dchill]

90. Henny Penny...

Your name is SO appropriate! The sky is falling. Great link - welcome to DU.

[WhiteTara]

21. according to the Hindustan Times

there have been no human to human transmissions
http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/5922_1629623,0015002500000000.htm
snip
Union health ministry officials say there is no need to panic. "The only confirmed cases reported till now have been in people who have been in close contact with bird secretions and excetions. Till now, no human to human transmission has taken place anywhere in the world, and we're currently making sure no one has been infected in Maharashtra," says the official.

But the influenza virus' ability to mutate easily has WHO experts worry that the H5N1 pandemic will happen once person-to-person transmission starts. "Of the few avian influenza viruses that have crossed the species barrier to infect humans, H5N1 has caused the most severe disease and death in people, killing over half of those infected," says a public health expert at the WHO South East Asia Region.

[pinto]

9. Good point. n/t

[depakid]

13. Actually, there have been several documented cases

of human to human transmission in Southeast Asia among healthcare workers and family caregivers.

At this point, it still takes very close contact. But that will change.

As the virus spreads, the probabilties for the inevitable viral reassortment or spontaneous mutation rise exponentially.

So your "rosy" statement of having nothing to worry about amounts to nothing more than "whistling past the graveyard."

[TomInTib]

15. And there was live poultry in every instance.

Have you ever spent any time in S E Asia?

I have. Chickens run freely thru houses and dispensaries alike. I will guarantee you every human that ever contracted H5N1 got it from direct exposure to poultry.

If you have proof or a link, I would appreciate seeing it. And if you heard it on teevee it was a lie.

I am not militant on this subject but I have been watching this since the start.

They couldn't scare us with "Mad Cow" crap so we get this.

[depakid]

17. Of course there was live poultry

How do you think the family member was exposed?

And no, I don't watch TV- don't like being misinformed- especially by what passes for "news" in America.

Here's one link. There are others if you want to dig into the CSR's.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/ungchusak.pdf

[TomInTib]

19. Thanks for the link, depakid, but I am not seeing the..

human-to-human transmission.

As long as this stays poultry-driven it will never be much of a deal.

Do you think we will ever hear this much hysteria about malaria? Malaria will kill more children this year than H5N1 will kill in forever (it will not be H5N1 if it ever becomes H-to-H).

I really think it is all about a "universal chicken" and the applied patent (wouldn't you like to have that one?).

[depakid]

23. If it were just the "Johnny come lately" American media

and PhARMA bellowing about this- I'd agree with you.

However, the Britsh NHS is notoriously stingy about handing out pharmaceuticals- and their pandemic influenza contingency plan calls for stockpiling Tamiflu (Oseltamivir) rather than relying on an iffy vaccine that may not provide much of an immune response to the variant that ultimately breaks out.

I read through the first version early last spring. I'm glad I poked around today, because updated material came out in October. Dunno how many changes they've made.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/19_10_05_bird_flu.pdf

(It's a little long- but comprehensive and fairly easy for a layperson to read).

The Health Protection Agency’s plan is shorter, but considerably more data intensive:

http://www.hpa.org.uk/infections/topics_az/influenza/pandemic/pdfs/HPAPandemicplan.pdf

BMJ wrote prescient editorial back in 1997, possibly in response to the initial Hong Kong outbreak of H5N1 in March of that year- although it wan't menetioned.

http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi/content/full/315/7102/204

Probably due to their long history with epidemics, the British have worried about pandemic influenza for years- and, interestingly enough- so was NIH and the CDC- at least prior to the Bush adminstration (who appointed an Amtrak lawyer- another Brownie- to coordinate our virtually non-existant response- listed on Whitehouse.gov, no less). We truly have evolved into a Kafka-esque society.

Try a quick Pub Med search for: hong kong 1997 H5N1 -and you'll find no less that 135 entries, which goes to show that how seriously the public health community takes the issue (a search for "H5N1" by itself brings up 475 entries).

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/query.fcgi

[WhiteTara]

40. you do know that Rumsfeld is on the board of

Genetech, the company that holds the patent on Tamiflu and I think that the big push is Rummy wanting to make money.

BTW, I read the WHO report and I didn't find it very convincing. My cynicism is really at an all time high.

[Colorado Blue]

36. Yes - but apparently there is a threat to wild birds as well.

And that's very bad.

They're under pressure as it is.

[WhiteTara]

30. actually, I think mad cow is real...feeding

brains of one animal to another is bad mojo. However, I do agree with you that this one is not real. The fact that Donald Rumsfeld just happens to be on the board of Genentech, the patent holders of Tamiflu, the greatest, latest flu cure, sold by the billion (whatever number it really is)doses. Nope, this is a scam.But I do have great concern for the number of birds that are dying.

[TomInTib]

35. BNL, I agree that BSE is real, but the threat is minimal....

What pisses me off is when we hear all this shrieking horror about one Canadian cow showing up in a herd in the US.
Think about it- one cow.
BSE is essentially food borne. I don't know if you have spent much time around cows (I, unfortunately, have), but they feed in a group. How ONE cow out of a herd of 1500 would contract a food-borne disease and the others remain unaffected is beyond my grasp.

And do not even get me started on downer cows.

Do you know that over half of the antibiotics consumed in this country are consumed by the beef and swine biz?

I am no militant vegan, just a concerned rancher.

[WhiteTara]

39. I'm so glad you are concerned. We need more

farmers like you. And yes, I've spent my time with cattle. I have wondered how one cow can get sick and not the others, what is your theory on that one? I have to say that the one reason that I don't eat non organic beef is that they are completely pumped up on antibiotics and various hormones, etc.

[SaveElmer]

16. There is no sustained transmission...

Meaning they suspect one family member may have caught it from another, but the virus went no further. And they are not even 100% sure this is true. Right now it is still an avian virus, very difficult to catch. There have been millions of people exposed, yet less than 200 known infections so far. I emphasise known, because there is evidence both serological and statistical that many more may have contracted it and did not become ill. In 1997 tests confirmed many showed antibodies to the virus, but did not become sick. And there was a recent Swedish statistical analysis of Vietnamese farmers which pointed the same way. In fact, there are no known infections among poultry workers at large farms in asia, nor among those culling sick and dead birds. Vietnam has apparently been successful in its efforts with no outbreaks in 4 months.

Your statement "At this point, it still takes very close contact. But that will change" is just as wrongheaded as the opposite. The fact is, the odds are it won't turn pandemic, even those working on containing it acknowledge that if you press them. It's just that this particular strain apparently is more virulent than other strains that the extra attention is warranted.

So while efforts to contain the virus are definitely warranted, absolute pronouncements of outcome are not.

[depakid]

18. Welp. look at the link

and judge the evidence for yourself.

Definitive causation is very difficult in epidemiology, but that doesn't mean- it isn't there or it isn't HIGHLY probably.

And if you think my statement was "wrongheaded" I have news- you need to dig a little deeper into the history and patterns of similar pandemics.

Yes, this particular strain is especially virulent- but that of course doesn't preclude a virulent mutation or viral reassortment in another strain. This one just happens to have spread to the point where the probalities are at the stage of inevitability.

The only question public health officals have is "when."

<on edit- my statement "close contact" implies a large and direct exposure to the pathogen- suggesting that aerosol exposure doesn't pass along enough of the virus- yet>

[SaveElmer]

24. No link...

And no...the mutation of this particular strain is no more inevitable than any other. There is nothing inevitable about a nearly random process. Too many factors go into which strain gains evolutionary advantage to consider anything inevitable. The "when" you are talking about is pandemic in general, not any particular strain. I have seen no credible evidence that public health officials consider this exact strain to inevitably be the one. In fact they are very cautious to make that distinction in all of the public statements I have seen.

You have hit on a worry I have...everyone's attention will be on this particular strain, and another one will come along and bite us in the ass.

[depakid]

26. See posts 17 & 23

I agree that it's become a pain in the ass to find survellience on the usual A strains these days- because people are hyper-vigilant about the avian strains.

There was also a weird B strain that hit Britain this year (some of my friends caught the unpleasant bastard- no pulmonary involvement, but gastric distress & nasal congestion).

http://icwales.icnetwork.co.uk/0100news/0200wales/tm_objectid=16669275&method=full&siteid=50082&headline=welsh-flu-hits-a-10-year-high-name_page.html

That said- the VAST geographical area it's speading to, the sheer number of viri and the nature of influenza make both spontaneous mutation and viral reassortment into a highly contagious variant a statistical inevitability.

In fact- it's already been mutating and reassorting. The chance event (which isn't necessarily a certainty- but a high probabilty) is human contact with one of the highly contagious strains. Once that happens- well, let's just hope it's not as virulent as many highly respected researchers fear-

[SaveElmer]

28. Well I respectfully disagree...

This virus has been in the bird population for at least 7 years...it has killed hundreds of millions of birds, infected many more no doubt. Millions of people had to have been exposed, and yet we have 200 confirmed infections, none interestingly enough among workers at large poultry farms, or among bird cullers.

The new cases outside of Asia, in terms of numbers, pales in comparison. In all of these new areas, there have been a total of 23 known human infections (21 in Turkey, 2 in Iraq). Each individual contact with a human is no more likely to cause a mutation than any other exposure.

There is also reason to believe that migratory birds are not the major source of the spread. Countries such as Australia and the Phillipines are on major migrtory pathways for birds from affected areas, yet no infections have been detected in either of those countries.

The variable is how difficult this pathogen will find it to make a true species jump, which it has not yet done even with the millions of chances it has had. That is the large unknown.

It's like saying statistically someone will eventually win the lottery, when you don't know how many tickets were sold, or how many numbers will be drawn. Under those circumstances, to say with absolute certainty than a certain outcome is inevitable is simply not sustainable.

I don't want to sound like I do not take this situation seriously, I do. At the very least it will be devastaating to many poor farmers in some of these countries, and has the potential for great economic harm to poultry industries in many countries. WHO, IMO, is doing a pretty good job raising awareness (though I think they do on occasion tend to move into hyperbole, it's not to their benefit to downplay risk), and in aiding countries get the situation under control. There have been notable victories in Vietnam, Turkey, and Thailand (though I see they had a death today). Culling works, and these countries need to be supported in those efforts.

[WhiteTara]

29. please document that statement

according to health officials there has been no human to human transmission.
So if you have other information, great. Please send along the link.


http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/5922_1629623,0015002...
snip
Union health ministry officials say there is no need to panic. "The only confirmed cases reported till now have been in people who have been in close contact with bird secretions and excetions. Till now, no human to human transmission has taken place anywhere in the world, and we're currently making sure no one has been infected in Maharashtra," says the official.

But the influenza virus' ability to mutate easily has WHO experts worry that the H5N1 pandemic will happen once person-to-person transmission starts. "Of the few avian influenza viruses that have crossed the species barrier to infect humans, H5N1 has caused the most severe disease and death in people, killing over half of those infected," says a public health expert at the WHO South East Asia Region.

[depakid]

33. See my posts above- in particular, the WHO link in #17

You can also look at the CSR's ( Communicable Disease Surveillance & Response reports) on WHO's website.

I'm guessing that the World Health Organization may have a little more credibility than the Hindustan Times.

[loudsue]

64. It's not just about humans: Imagine NO BIRDS. No eggs.

Even if it doesn't spread to humans, just think of how much we rely on birds to keep down bugs, to provide meat, eggs, goose liver pate (yum!), and for the beautiful songs they sing to us.... or for us country folks, the crow of the rooster at dawn.

:cry: A world without birds SUCKS!!!

:kick::kick::kick:

[Warpy]

6. So far, close contact with infected birds is needed for transmission

If you find a dead bird in the next couple of months, pick it up with a shovel and ease it into a plastic bag, deliver it to your local ag extension for testing. Chances are the avian flu will be here via migrating birds within the next 2 or 3 months, traveling south to north.

You can eliminate chicken if you want, but handling it carefully and washing your plastic cutting board with a bleach solution after you put the chicken into the pot and washing your hands thoroughly with soap and water will reduce the chance of acquiring it from infected chicken meat (unlikely) to nearly zero. Cooked chicken meat won't transmit it.

Chicken may be off the menu because it may become very expensive to produce chickens for meat. They'll have to be completely isolated from the external environment. One infected bird can kill a whole factory operation.

As for processing in China, they won't be allowed to market it as fresh. It will have to be used in processed foods. Chicken can be kept near freezing but not cold enough to freeze the flesh and sold as fresh, but if it freezes, it has to be labeled that way. Freezing changes the texture of the flesh, makes it spongy.

[SaveElmer]

10. There is no Bird Flu South of the US...

Migration pathways stretch from Alaska to South America. There are no reports of Bird flu on either continent. The only way it will arrive here via birds is either through smuggled in birds, which is unlikely, or by some birds which migrate between the shorelines of Siberia and Alaska. Even then it is unlikely. Even if it does get here, the chance that it will significantly impact poultry is very small.

[auagroach]

65. Whoa!

Did I read that right? Some bidizman is raising chickens in the States then shipping the poor clucks live overseas to China then they're shipped backed dead to the States? Right!? If that is true one has to wonder at the wonders of globolonialyization!

[TomInTib]

4. They will be replaced- probably with Perdue or ConAgra patented

birds.

You can bet that Texas A&M or a consortium of schools are working on a H5N1-resistant bird to distribute internationally.

There are far too many semi-hysterical alarms and articles on this for it to be a purely humanitarian issue.

Fowl is the universal food source. No matter the village. town, or city- chickens are everywhere.

Hell, we almost had civil warfare in my town over chickens. And I live in a stratospherically expensive area.
Guess what? The chickens won.

[shimbo]

7. Avian Flu Meme Compared to SARS

http://www.realmeme.com/roller/page/realmeme?entry=sars_versus_avian_flu_meme


The societal reaction to avian flu is considerably quicker than for SARS.

[WhiteTara]

20. that was interesting. Thanks

Shimbo Welcome to DU :hi:

[dweller]

25. information like this worries me

and not just for the human toll. What about the birds? I have 2 tiels, or rather i'm the caretaker of 2 tiels of my daughter while she is away in college. They're indoor now obviously, but in the spring/summer i try to put them out for several hours a day on the porch, and i worry about H5N1's further spread. And i worry about all birds here in the US in the coming year.
Are songbirds and wildbirds also at risk? Can you imagine our world without these birds?

So far everyone seems concerned about chickens, and other farmed poultry. And then, i wonder how Darth Cheney will have an excuse for blasting away others without quail? ... okay, maybe i worry too much.


dp

[WhiteTara]

31. I'm worried about a world without birds

too. They are such an important part of our ecosystem. That the frogs are dying, the krell are dying, the birds are dying. Hmm, think we have some desperate imbalances going on here?

[Lorien]

50. Indeed. The implications are very serious

insect populations could explode, bringing more disease and devastating crops. Some plant species could also go extinct, ans many seeds need to go through a bird's digestive tract to germinate. Species loss and reduction has a domino effect.

Now all that remains is to lose BATS; without that species, we wouldn't have a chance. :-(


BTW-it's awful that the only way to get anyone to care about species loss these days is to point out how it will effect THEM. Each has an intrinsic worth that can't be measured by their impact on the human species alone.

[WhiteTara]

51. I'm listening to Al Gore and the state

of the world is dire. We need to stop this fighting crap and take care of the mess that has been made of our beautiful planet.

[Colorado Blue]

56. Amen. eom

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

59. you may cry as you look up into the bird-free(freebird) sky- and remember

Remember what you were taught in 5th Grade Science Class:
once the food chain is broken--then...

Then when your done crying make plans for the human desperation and the hoarding of what will be left.

It will likely be a rush to see who can remain alive the longest on the secret stashes of food--
Survival of the best armed!!

...but soon the oxygen runs out (without trees and plants)

..and then the Oxygen tanks run out in the Republikkan underground bunkers---

The last laugh is on those who survive the longest!

[crikkett]

32. I'm more afraid of WNV than HN51

My opinion: west nile virus is here, hurts people, kills birds, spreads via mosquitoes. HN51 is not here, and not spread by anything here. Even as I try to stick to worrying w/in my 'circles of influence' I too don't look forward to the prospect of keeping my birdhead inside all day for his own protection (and mine).

Two summers ago folks in USDA bubble suits ran 'round killing birds at aviaries throughouts S. California to stem WNV. I won't say it's unwarranted, but if they decide to cull again I sure hope I see them before they see me.

[truthpower]

43. With all due respect, make sure your birds don't kill any humans

At the risk of sounding humanistic (which I am), that's the number one priority. Keep 'em indoors.

[Mojorabbit]

27. They are finding dead swans in the UK too today

http://www.seriousaboutnews.com/bos/page.html?pageID=3&storyID=38050

A good neews site to keep up updated every five minutes from all around the world
http://www.newsnow.co.uk/newsfeed/?name=Bird%20Flu

[whatelseisnew]

34. Voodoo priests may catch bird flu

(thanks for the site)

Posted in GD:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=364x466368

http://www.abc.net.au/science/news/health/HealthRepubli...
Priests who tear out the throats of live chickens in ritual sacrifices to voodoo gods may risk contracting bird flu now the deadly virus has reached Africa.
Voodoo priests in Benin, which borders Nigeria where an outbreak of the deadly H5N1 virus was found in poultry last week, sacrifice animals to invoke blessings or favours from the gods.
Officials in the tiny West African country, which is the home of the ancient religion, say spreading the word about bird flu may help to save the lives of voodoo devotees.
...
An estimated 60% of Benin's 7 million people practise voodoo, although many also follow other religions like Christianity or Islam.

[Colorado Blue]

37. This is very serious. The issue isn't merely whether humans

can catch it but how serious a threat it poses to birds.

Birds are priceless.

They're also an integral part of a complex ecosystem.

This article seems to indicate that they didn't die from bird flu though.

Still I think it's alarming.

[Jersey Ginny]

38. I'm only a little concerned. Sounds like Ebola

It appears, although I am not a scientist, that like Ebola, that those people who have gotten the bird flu have died and have died quickly. While this is very tragic, it appears to be like Ebola in the sense the you might get serious local outbreaks but then there are no carriers b/c these poor folks die. I don't see how this can really be transmitted around the world if everyone who gets it is incapacitated quickly and then dies. It is my understanding that health officials don't expect Ebola to become a pandemic b/c of its high mortality rate. Seems the same for Bird flu. Any experts out there who can comment this?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

42. What do you know about the 1918 Influenza Pandemic?....

Ebola spreads much more quickly than influenza because Ebola's incubation period is about 3 days, while influenza's incubation period is between 5 and 10 days. Once Ebola runs out of "fuel", it will stop spreading.

Influenza is VERY difficult to stop because people can be traveling during the incubation period and not even realize that

a. they're infected, and
b, they're infecting people around them.

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic:
---------------------------
1. world population in 1918 was 1.8 billion
2. 90% of the world's population lived in rural areas
3. the incubation period for influenza is in the range of 5-10 days without exhibiting symptoms
4. a person is contagious during the influenza incubation period
5. the spread of the disease in 1918 was aided by trains and ships
6. the mortality rate was about 5% of all of those that were infected
7. the estimated number of dead in 1918-1919 was between 40 million and 100 million worldwide

A Future Avian Flu Pandemic:
---------------------------
1. the current world population is about 6.4 billion
2. 90% of the world's population lives in urban environments
3. the incubation period for influenza is in the range of 5-10 days without exhibiting symptoms
4. a person is contagious during the influenza incubation period
5. the spread of Avian Flu will be aided by planes, trains, ships, buses, and automobiles
6. the mortality rate of Avian Flu to date is about 50%
7. using the current mortality rates, if 4 billion become infected, 2 billion will die
8. using the 1918-1919 mortality rates, "only" 200 million will die if 4 billion become infected

[SaveElmer]

53. You left out a few things...

1918

No antibiotics
No Ant-Virals
No rapid communication
No attempt to isolate the sick
Daily transport of sick soldiers to and from the western front
Immumo-compromised soldiers living in fetid transches and hospitals probably transmitting a highly virulent form of the disease.

Possible Future pandemic

The mortality rate of those known infected is 50% (actually somewhat less now).
No idea whatsoever of how many have actually been infected but did not require treatment. Recent studies, and blood tests taken in 1997 point to a lrger number of infected but not seriously ill, or asymptomatic.
Sophisticated attempts at isolation and culling (Vietnam, Turkey etc)

[Mojorabbit]

62. Have you seen this?

Before I post my link I want to say that the people dieing now are dying of viral pneumonia which antibiotics will not help
There are not near enough antivirals to be of much use in a global pandemic
Transport of people from around the world has exploded by air travel
We have more immuno compromised people alive now than ever before due to advances in medicine.

That being said, I know you are following this closely and thought you might be interested in this new study.

http://tinyurl.com/l24w5
The World Health Organization’s plan to try to extinguish an emerging flu pandemic at its source will likely only buy the world additional time to prepare, not snuff out the threat, new mathematical modelling suggests.

The WHO, which is devoting considerable time to developing a rapid response and containment plan, acknowledged Monday the claim is probably valid.
snip
“Since we’ve been talking about this containment strategy, we’ve given the very big qualifier that we think it may fail,” Maria Cheng said from the agency’s Geneva headquarters.

“But it’s still worth it because if it buys us some extra time, it gives countries some extra time to prepare and it gives vaccine companies more time to produce vaccine.

and this one
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060221/ts_nm/birdflu_containment_dc
Bird flu likely to burst out again and again: study

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -
Bird flu is likely to cross over into people again and again if it ever even once acquires the ability to pass from human to human, experts predicted on Monday.


In theory, the virus only has to mutate once, in one person, to spark a pandemic. But the researchers argue that this could happen again and again, in several places around the world.

They said even if the current pandemic killing birds passes, no one should breathe a sign of relief because the threat to people will not be gone.

At best, a containment policy will only postpone the emergence of a pandemic, 'buying time' to prepare for its effects,"

"We argue here that if a single introduction of a pandemic-capable strain is expected, multiple introductions should also be expected," Lipsitch's team wrote in the Public Library of Science Medicine, an online medical journal.

"Each containment effort would likely be more difficult than the last as manpower, antiviral stockpiles, and other scarce resources become depleted," they wrote.

more at link

[SaveElmer]

63. Yes I did....

I would like to see some evidence there are more immuno compromised people now than during the depths of WWII. I am very skeptical about that statement.

Second, it is not just the fact that they were immuno compromised, but that they were an immobile host population, with no attempt to isolate the sick.

Third, I can guarantee you, if this does ever mutate, there will be severe travel restrictions insttituted.

However, whether it gains the ability to move to a H2H form is still the big variable. And WHO itself admits it does not know whether that will happen. In fact yesterday they confirmed there was absolutely no evidence that it had come closer to this mutataion.

Also, mathematical modeling assumes the virus does not change in virulence when and if it makes the jump etc. In its same statement saying there was no evidence of a mutation making it easier for humans to catch, it did note achange among birds. Closely packed fowl appeared to be getting a more virulent form, while in some wild birds, the virus was not as deadly. Not really surprising given what is known about natural selection. So if it does make the jump, and the viruence is weakened as many expect it to be, the model changes.

Mathematical modeling becomes kind of useless once the assumptions on which the model is based change significantly. So while I think it is a helpful piece of information for WHO and others dealing with this, I don't think it is flawless

[Mojorabbit]

67. Re immunocompromised people

who would have died in 1918 without our advances in medicine
an example

"In the U.S., more than 400,000 people are on long-term dialysis and more than 20,000 have a functioning transplanted kidney." Source: http://www.umm.edu/ency/article/000500.htm

There is aids, cancer patients, diabetics on insulin, a lot more elderly on medication that would have succumbed without it for blood pressure problems, cardiac medications for arrythmias plus just by being elderly ones immune system falls in effectiveness.

Re the study...I think this will be endemic in birds from now on.So I do buy their sparks being thrown off theory. We can't cull every bird in the world. The spring migration happens shortly and I expect more infections.

We use the stats we have from 1918(2-5
% death rate) but there were pandemics before that and we have no idea what the death rate was for them. We have only the three in recent history to go by. Will be interesting to see what happens. If nothing else perhaps we will learn a lot of how viruses(viri?) work which can be a positive thing.

[SaveElmer]

68. However...

It is not only that they are immunocompromised, but that they are an immoblie population, which allows highly virulent forms to transmit easily.

And even the numbers you cite pales in comparison to the number of soldiers serving on the western front, not to mention war ravaged communities in Europe.

I do not know if it will be endemic in birds. Culling probably cannot catch every one as you say. But if the virus is denied access to densely packed communities of birds, which is possible with proper controls, a less virulent form will probably have to become dominant for it to survive.

There were certainly pandemics before 1918, and we do not have the kind of statistical analysis of them we have now. However, historical accounts do not indicate anything worse than the 1918 pandemic that I have seen. Many cities were ravaged by yellow fever every summer, and scarlet fever and malaria were prominent as well.

Most importantly however, is that no one knows if the virus is capable of making the proper mutation, or how hard that would be.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

70. You left out a few things, too.....

...namely that we have absolutely NO vaccine for Avian Flu, primarily because the variant that will readily transmit from human to human has not yet emerged. Anti-virals will be of little use against the Avian Flu variant that will eventually emerge because:

1. We have not produced them in any kind of mass quantity.
2. Tamiflu has been proven to be essentially useless.

Additionally, because of the different symptoms presented by the 1918 flu, the disease was misdiagnosed as cholera, typhoid, dengue, as well as a number of other diseases. Therefore, we don't know the number of additional people that have died from the current Avian Flu because of the fact that no tests have been run to determine the cause of death.

You also failed to note that the current world population is approximately 3.6 times larger than the 1918 global population. Additionally, the current population is about 90% urban, while the 1918 population was still rural in nature. That offsets any supposed advantage you believe we may have in terms of rapid communication, and/or attempts to isolate the sick...too many people living much too close together.

Comparable to the troop movements to and from the front in 1918-1919 is the current number of daily flights around the world. A person could become infected in Country A, and travel through one or more other countries infecting who knows how many people until he or she began to exhibit symptoms. As an aside, how many people around the world are currently living in conditions very similar to those in which the WWI soldier was forced to live? Half a billion? One billion?

Your comment about "recent studies, and blood tests taken in 1997 point to a larger number of infected but not seriously ill, or asymptomatic" is interesting, but the World Health Organization makes no mention of any additional cases of Avian Flu other than the 18 people that were originally infected, of whom 6 died. To what recent studies are you referring, and where might they be found on the Net?

Avian influenza - fact sheet
<http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_01_15/en/>

[SaveElmer]

71. To respond...

There are several vaccines in development that are being tested. I agree none will be a perfect match if the virus mutates, but they all will confer some immunity because it is the H5 that we have not been exposed to before, and all of the vaccines under development target it.

Your comment about Tamiflu is groundless, there have been no credible studies to show it is useless at all, and there is anecdotal evidence that it worked in many cases in the recent outbreak in Turkey. More work needs to be done here before any pronouncement of that type can be made.

You are correct about the world population and about the relative urban/rural mix. However, no urban area on the planet right now exhibits anywhere near the conditions experienced on the western front. These men were living in dirt trenches, no sanitary facilities, being bombed and gassed, rancid food. And when they became sick were either left where they were, or crammed into overcrowded military hospitals, with little in the way of ameliorative care, or any attempt to isolate them. Some believe, and I find this argumant fairly persuasive, that it is a densely packed, immobilized, immuno-compromised population which allowed a particularly virulent strain of influenze to become easily transmissable. This is not of course accepted fact, but even critics do not dismiss this research as groundless. Here is a link to the primary proponent of this Dr. Paul Ewald, including a debate with others over this theory.

Dr. Ewald also notes that any possible mutation (H5N1 or other) is unlikely to explode on the scene, but will take some time to become established. This does give a window of opportunity for control measures to be taken

http://www.aflupandemic.com/2005/11/1918_disease_fa.html

Here is a link to a recent Swedish statistical study pointing to wider, less severe infection. This needs to be followed up with blood testing

http://www.medpagetoday.com/InfectiousDisease/URItheFlu/tb/2450

As to the serological testing in Hong Kong...I will try and find the primary evidence...but here are the comments of flu expert Dr. Marc Siegel

There were hundreds of cases of less severe infections in Hong Kong in 1997, said Dr. Marc Siegel, an associate professor at New York University Medical Center.

"Since then, has not been routinely done, but when it has, it has continued to show exposure without illness," said Siegel, author of the forthcoming book, "Bird Flu: Everything You Need to Know About the Next Pandemic."

http://abcnews.go.com/Health/Flu/story?id=1495359

[humbled_opinion]

41. Senseless slaughter...

Millions of birds have gone to slaughter over this even though only a few have actually tested positive for this sickness. So when it finally gets in humans will they cull us too?

[truthpower]

44. I'll go out on a limb and say it's not a direct analogy

Got any kids? How many birds for one 8 year old? Puleez....

[arikara]

55. Haliburton's certainly hard at work

setting up concentration camps these days, useful for a variety of purposes I suppose.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

58. what's sad? no one got to EAT them? they were bred to be massacred right?

Would it be less sad if their bodies had ended up at KFC in a Bucket?

What's sad to me it the breeding of animals with the intent of killing them,
and the hoarding the dismembered body parts.

PRETEND you just arrived on earth and had X-ray vision
--> You could look down any street in any town on this earth and see inside the buidings
--> You'd see nearly every building holding dear amounts of the decomposing dismembered body parts....
--> In nearly EVERY building on EVERY street--
--> The humans store these body parts in strange "cold" boxes to slow the bacteria which aid in the decomposition.
--> And then as a daily ritual you'd see the dwellers of these buildings devouring and ingesting these bloody body pieces
--> sounds to me like H.G.Wells--the Morlocks

Just wait til we run out of "animal" body parts because of contamination (virus/diseases)
We will have to find more of these precious "body parts" somewhere won't we?

[Mojorabbit]

45. I watched the fox news special on bird flu tonight

It was hosted by Newt and had images reminiscent of the looting in NO. It lamented how we have no vaccine capacity due to lawsuits(baloney... just a plug for waiving liability for those companies) and mostly was an infomerical for his new health institute. Scared alot of people I am sure without giving any advice on what to do on a personal level.

[dysfunctional press]

47. why?

don't you feel robbed of the precious minutes of life wasted on faux news...?

they have nothing credible to say- so why bother?

[Mojorabbit]

48. I am very interested in this flu and have

been closely following it's every mutation. So I sucked it up to watch the program. Ended up turning it off half way through.
I did learn what newt is up to though and I don't like it one bit.
http://www.healthtransformation.net/home/

[The2ndWheel]

46. Oh, they sent them to Bhopal

Something poetic there, I guess.

Bird flu, the arctic melting, global totalitarian surveillance, robot warriors...

Don't let the bed bugs bite, who knows what'll happen.

[Mojorabbit]

49. Article in the NYT

Health Experts Surprised at Rapid Spread of Bird Flu
NEW DELHI, Feb. 19 — The first reports of bird flu that cropped up in recent days in widely separated countries — India, Egypt and France — highlighted the disease's accelerating spread to new territories.

International health experts have been predicting widespread dissemination of the disease for about half a year, since they concluded that it could be spread by migrating birds. But the recent acceleration has perplexed many experts, who had watched the A(H5N1) virus stick to its native ground in Asia for nearly five years.

The most alarming of the current outbreaks, if only for sheer size, were the two widely separated episodes of avian flu in India, one of which has killed 50,000 birds in poultry flocks in the last few days. The Indian government, which has long been on alert for the virus because that country is on many migration paths in Asia, began killing half a million birds in the hopes of quashing the outbreaks, officials announced Sunday.

But the most perplexing report involved the single case in France — a wild duck found dead in the suburbs of Lyon — because migratory birds from Asia that carry the virus do not normally travel there at this time of year.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/20/health/20flu.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

[Javaman]

54. You know, if I was a chicken, I would be shitting...

otherwise, this is more fear bullshit.

Like I said before, until an urbanite situated far from the nearest chicken, pigeon, or general fowl, gets infected, this is all bullshit.

[depakid]

69. Whistling past the graveyard....

I'd be wary about calling "bullshit" when public health officials in just about every country around the globe (except the US) are extensively planning (and engaged in active preparation) for an eventual breakout.

Ironically- it'll be the urban areas- with their high population densities, large numbers of individual contacts and extensive travel corridors- both interstate and abroad- that will get hit the hardest and suffer the greatest economic harm.

Once a case hits there- it'll be way too late to do much other than attempt to mitigate the damages.

[Javaman]

74. do you honestly believe that with a virus that takes 5-7 days to

incubate we are going to have a ghost of a chance at the onset?

The best predictions from everyone involved to come out with a vaccine is between 3 months to a year.

So like I said, all this is bullshit.

the best medicine, rather than scaring the living shit out of anyone is do what Vietnam has done.

Mass kill the fowl to stop the spread then inoculate the remains. And educate the people that work with various poultry.

that is what is going to stop any hybrid from spreading like wild fire.

Until then, it's nothing but fear tactics.

[depakid]

75. Maybe you might do some research....?

From the British NHS's Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan:

•People are highly infectious from the onset of symptoms for 4-5 days
(longer in children and people who are immunocompromised). People
are likely to be infectious just before the onset of symptoms. Children
have been shown to shed virus for longer (and at higher levels) than
adults.

•People with asymptomatic infection shed virus and are therefore also
likely to be infectious to some extent and pass the infection on.
• The incubation period is 1-3 days

• Without intervention, and with no significant immunity in the
population, the historical evidence suggests one person infects on
average about 1.4 to 1.8 people (the Ro or ‘basic reproduction
number’). This number is likely to be higher in closed communities.

(That's exponential growth).

And there's more- not just from Britain. Pick a country & google.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/bsp/hi/pdfs/19_10_05_bird_flu.pdf

[Javaman]

76. By that logic, a good part of the world should be infected...

How come they aren't?

Because it still has to make the jump from human to human. Just because everyone is tying this virus to the dreaded 1918 virus doesn't mean it actually is.

I maintain, until a human that is in no way contact with any sort or any kind of fowl gets infected. I just refuse to worry, get afraid or feed into this blossoming mass hysteria over this crap.

I said it once and I will say it again. Bullshit.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

80. Can you imagine what would happen if EVERYONE thought it was "bullshit"?

No-one believes anyone because we are so accustomed to
the LIES of this _misAdministration and the LIES of Korporate Amerika.

There is a children's story--(something about a "wolf" and a boy?)

Our bodies are constantly fighting diseases each and every day.
Our immune systems are the only thing that allows us to live on this virus/bacteria planet.

We all know about the vaccine method and we all understand how these viruses and
bacteria mutate to "get around it" to ensure their own survival.

If a number of scientists are concerned then you need not assume "bulshit" just because you
are accustomed to being lied to.

• Nursery Rhyme for YOU:
Is this bullshit? - wait - and - see,
but - stay - away - from -K-F-C !!

[Javaman]

81. Still bullshit...

One of my hobbies is reading about infectious and contagious diseases. I know enough to be dangerous.

However, I'm not a scientist or am I an immunologist. However, from everything I have read and researched, I maintain it's still bullshit.

Bottom line: money is driving all of this fear bullshit. Tamiflu is flying off the shelves. Sadly, once you take it, you build up a resistance to it. Thus it become ineffective. Where have been the reports in the news about warning the public about that??

After the small pox eradication program, it was noted that several people made a fortune on the vaccine. Small pox was a very real threat.

This is not. this is nothing but stirring the pot, not one single person that has come down with this "flu" has been in an urban pop. Sars was a far more troublesome issue and yet the Chinese officials with the WHO and the CDC were able to contain that one.

When and if this ever mutates to be a threat to the general pop. I have complete confidence in the CDC, HHS and the WHO to quarantine the areas necessary to take care of this.

Any person that studies this stuff, realizes at some point, a flu or something else will get through and get to the general pop. But this isn't that pony to bet on.

The alphabet agencies above, have also stated that we as a nation have been not been prepared for any sort of general outbreak of a killer flu for the past 30 years. That is true and that sucks.

but rather than making everyone crazy with this fear crap, how about establishing a practical workable plan? I would have a higher level of belief if they actually put something together and enacted it.

Until now, it's just been one talking head, wagging a finger at us saying, "look out!! we are on a razors edge! we are about to fall off the cliff!"

No plan, no emergency. If they were honestly worried, the CDC would have issued a general statement to the pop. Not a panic statement like we have seen so far, "we are all going to die, unless we buy our Tamiflu". No something along the lines of, "if you handle or work with fowl of any sort, afterward, wash your hands before you do anything else". Common sense right? but we see nothing of the sort.

So I maintain: Until someone totally unconnected with any sort of fowl that lives in a total urban center, this is still smoke and mirrors.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

87. finger lickin good'-

[Javaman]

88. Enjoy your meal. nt

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

94. down at the Hospital Cafeteria!! mmmmmm--they're servin' up turkey burgers

for all the "turkeys" (birds with wings but cannot fly)
--(symbolic of those who end up never realizing their full potential)

[colorado_ufo]

57. If we lose even a substantial number of birds

contemplate the result: an overgrowth of insects on a scale unknown before. And with it, all the diseases that can be spread by these vectors, along with crop destruction and the extinction of other species that rely on birds for their food and other aspects of their life cycle.

And if we lose the raptors, we face the overgrowth of many rodents, plus all that entails.

We should never forget how interdependent all life is.

[Delphinus]

60. That's a wonderful question,

"are we about to lose birds?" I've wondered that myself, how they get that breed back into the habitat after they've wiped it out. What will they do for food, when all the chicken is gone? I'm tired, so maybe that's a stupid question.

[auagroach]

66. Aromatherapy - Essential Oils and Bird Flu

This is a a bit of a long-winded article with some tall claims. If anybody cares to look it over and voice their opinion please feel free. I aplogize for exceeding the 4 paragragh limit but considering the nature of the topic it might be worth it.

Therapeutic-grade essential oils are some of nature?s greatest gifts to us for use in coping with the onslaught of deadly viruses, bacteria and devastating chronic diseases of today. With new pandemics such as ?bird flu? in the news, and reports that vaccines and antibiotics are ineffective against them, it is especially reassuring to know that nature has provided us with plants and herbs with such powerful protection.
With the Bird Flu deaths in Indonesia, a mysterious but dangerous encephalitis in Nepal and India, and a rare Streptococcussuis Type II ?pig disease? spreading to humans in China, the news can be scary.
Experts are worried about a world-wide medical emergency, a "pandemic" of similar proportions to the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918, which killed millions. The number of possible deaths that are being projected are unbelievable.
People are being warned that governments are not adequately prepared to cope with the potential emergency. Given what we saw during Hurricane Katrina, with people dying and stranded without food and water for days, we surely are believers that horrible things do happen and will continue to happen.
Essential Oil Users are not Afraid
Dr. Gene Hummel of Ohio, has said that this winter will be a very harsh one for the flu and all other respiratory illnesses. "The unusual weather?s been a factor," "There?s been lots of rain, lots of stuff in the air."
Through the years, we have not only come to completely believe that essential oils allow our bodies to strengthen the immune system, but that they bring relief from the symptoms when you experience respiratory issues.
For those who did not know, viruses and bacteria cannot live in the presence of certain essential oils. The reason: for this is that essential oils are highly concentrated, complex but natural compounds, with hundreds of chemical constituents. These constituents account for the antibacterial, antifungal, antiviral, and anti-inflammatory properties of therapeutic quality essential oils. Essential oils are effective in the treatment of infections and respiratory conditions, for improving the immune response, and for balancing the nervous system. And, most essential oils (citrus oils are an exception) have an almost indefinite shelf life when stored under proper conditions.
Most people understand essential oils as having something to do with the sense of smell. Therefore, they look for an oil that smells strongly, a perfume grade oil. Unfortunately, unscrupulous or unknowledgeable re-sellers sometimes propagate this misinformation. Perfume oils are not therapeutic grade oils, of which the aroma itself is secondary to the therapeutic effect.
Therapeutic essential oils are unaltered, whole, single species, pure, raw, genuine, and obviously free from any added substances (natural or chemical). If the oils are not as close to their natural state as possible, they are not as effective for treatment.
Lesser-quality oils, such as perfume-grade oils sold in most health-food stores, pharmacies and bath and body stores, though relatively inexpensive, they simply do not support the range of healing properties contained in oils produced with healing in mind, and in some cases, can do more harm than good. When buying quality, therapeutic essential oils look for those whose purpose is for healing, and that contain the full range of natural chemical constituents nature intended. When you find them, you will have found powerful allies in maintaining and improving your health in these challenging times.
Keep your therapeutic essential oil emergency disaster first-aid kit ready
Everyone should be using their essential oil emergency kit during the cold and flu season and especially this year with the additional concerns. The therapeutic essential oils that we recommend to be in your kit are:
Healthy Blend a combination of therapeutic oils combined to help boost the immune system and encourage the body to stay strong. Blend of Thyme Serpolet, lemon, grapefruit, cinnamon, clove, ginger root, elemi, lavender and peppermint.
Respire Blend is designed for colds and congestion. Tea tree, Scotch pine, and eucalyptus have been carefully selected for their ability to help maintain the functioning of the respiratory and immune systems.
Peppermint essential oil which can be used for headaches, nausea, shock, and mental fatigue. It?s very balancing to the body. Soothes the digestive system while stimulating the immune system, respiratory and nervous system. Peppermint essential oil as a massage oil over the abdomen relaxes the muscles to help in the digestion of heavy meals and relieves flatulence, cramping, nausea, and specific disorders such as irritable bowel syndrome. It is a warming oil, so it's found in most liniments to relieve painful muscle spasms and arthritic conditions.
Peppermint essential oil relieves the itching of ringworm, herpes blisters, scabies, and poison oak and ivy and stimulates oil production in dry skin and hair. Many bacterial, fungal, and viral infections are destroyed by it and when inhaled or when a vapor balm is rubbed on the chest. It clears sinus and lung congestion. The scent is energizing, and historically, it was said to be an aphrodisiac.
Tea Tree is for sunburns, cuts and scrapes, and to disinfect our mouth and breath. It will also help us breath better, assisting to clearing sinus congestion. The essential oil is an all-purpose antiseptic whose use is supported by medical studies. It's effective against bacteria, fungi, and viruses, including those that cause flu, colds, herpes blisters, shingles, candida, thrush, and chicken pox. As a bonus, it stimulates the immune system and increases the production of white blood cells. It is mostly used to treat mouth, urinary tract, and vaginal infections, but it hastens the healing of wounds, diaper rash, acne, and insect bites. It protects the skin from radiation burns, encourages the regeneration of scar tissue, and reduces swelling. The presence of blood and pus from infection increase its antiseptic properties. Use it in compresses, salves, massage oil, and aromatherapy washes.
Lavender essential oil can be helpful as a muscle relaxant, skin conditioner and astringent and can encourage feelings of exhilaration and relaxation, Among the safest of all essential oils, lavender is also one of the most antiseptic. This antiviral and antifungal oil treats lung, sinus, vaginal, and skin infections and reduces inflammation and relieves muscle pain and headaches. It is suitable for all complexion types and hastens the healing of skin cells, so it's used on burns, sun-damaged skin, wounds, and rashes. It also relieves the pain of injuries by numbing nerve endings.
Lavender can be used to treat oily skin and acne and prevents scarring and stretch marks and reputedly slows the development of wrinkles. A lavender massage oil or bath improves digestion and boosts immunity. Of several fragrances tested by aromatherapy researchers, lavender was most effective at relaxing brain waves and reducing stress. It also eliminated almost one-quarter of computer errors made by office workers.
Eucalyptus essential oil can be diffused to support the respiratory and immune systems. Eucalyptus essential oil is highly antiseptic but also very inexpensive, so it's used liberally in aftershaves, colognes, mouthwashes, and household cleansers. Researches found that the scent provides a real wake-up call; so using these products should help you get through the day. The essential oil of eucalyptus, or its main component eucalyptol, is used in many drugstore products as a liniment for sore muscles, in vapor rubs for lung and sinus congestion, in skin blemishes / oily complexion lotions and creams, and in shampoo for oily hair. Many people use either eucalyptus leaves or the essential oil in steam baths and saunas by placing a few drops on the hot rocks so that the scent fills the room. Eucalyptus is also one of the strongest essential oils to fight viral infections like flu, herpes, blisters, chicken pox and helps boost the body's immune system.
Lemon essential oil ? can be diffused to help purify the air and stimulate the immune system. It may benefit the skeletal and digestive systems and the skin. Lemon is best known medicinally throughout the world as a remedy that relieves fevers, sore throat, coughs, and indigestion. Studies show that the essential oil counters a wide range of viral and bacterial infections and increases immune system activity by stimulating the production of the white corpuscles that fight infection. It is most often used in massage oil or as an aromatherapy steam. The massage oil also relieves lymph glands congested from infection and reduces bloating, and some say that it promotes weight loss. It also reduces inflammation and works particularly well at relaxing stiff muscles.
Incorporated into cosmetics, lemon is best used on oily complexions and skin blemishes. It also regulates oily hair. After being researched, the scent is diffused through the air systems of some Japanese offices and factories to increase worker's concentration, ability to memorize, and cut the number of mistakes they make by half. One way it does so is to relax brain waves, inhaling the scent also slightly lowers blood pressure and can be used as an antidepressant.

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

72. just printed it- thanks for the excellent info-everyone should read it!

Just printed it for my friends-
I've used essential oils for years with great results!!

Not only can essential oils be used for personal health but the oils can also affect those around you.
(magicians also use essential oils for definitive effects)

do you have a link or source?
I'd like to read more from this source--
thanks again!

[auagroach]

77. My Pleasure and a word of caution

Glad you appreciated it Night Tripper but for some reason I didn’t keep the link. Sorry. Here’s a similar one that makes the same claim that they‘re effective against viruses and bacteria. http://ansononline.com/info/chemisty.html I guess there’s something to it then. Sure beats getting jab with a hypordermic filled with some gov’t sponsored glop.

To anyone taking an interest please note. I have some personal experience with tea tree oil referred to and be careful you dilute that POWERFUL! stuff to 5% solution as I believe when I used a 20% solution it was the cause of hives breaking out. User beware!

[NIGHT TRIPPER]

78. thanks auagroach

appreciate the link but I get a "page not found" error--I'll keep looking around--thanks again

[Tyler Durden]

73. EVERY flu is a "bird flu"

That's where they start. Even "Swine Flu's" original vector was avian.

Almost ALL ducks carry a flu virus. All the time.

[Javaman]

79. True, but not all "bird" flu's automatically become human flu.

Southeast Asia is the birth place of just about all the various cases that have come about over time.

why is that?

Simple food chain answer and how the fowl are raised.

Farmer grows rice. they harvest the rice. pigs go into the field and eat the remains. they poop out the seeds. Ducks, chickens and any other fowl go in and eat the seeds in the poop. This is how it is spread.

During which time, the original fertilizer that is used on the rice is human poop. aka Night Soil. If someone had the flu, and used their poop to fertilize the crop, the potential for a hybrid flu is increased.

simple solution, stop them from using night soil. But given that it is an historic and cheap means to fertilize their crops, it ain't going to happen soon.

And so the cycle continues.

[Mojorabbit]

82. India in a panic

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/4739800.stm
India seals off 'bird flu town'

Sales of chicken have dropped sharply
Officials in India's Maharashtra state have begun sealing off an entire town where bird flu has been discovered.
No-one will be allowed in or out of Navapur, which has a population of nearly 30,000, or 19 nearby villages.
The measures come after reports that blood samples from people in hospital have tested positive for bird flu. Health officials deny the reports.
Hundreds of thousands of birds are being culled after deadly H5N1 bird flu was found in Navapur last week.
snip

Health Ministry officials say tests on 90 of 95 people for bird flu have proved negative.
The other five samples, taken from 12 people who have been quarantined with flu-like symptoms in Maharashtra, are being tested further. Results are expected on Thursday.
"We do not rule out the possibility of humans being affected, and it is a distinct possibility," Health Secretary PK Hota told reporters in Delhi.

[Mojorabbit]

83. Bush's flim flam

Dr. Bush's flu flim-flam
By Madeline Drexler, Madeline Drexler is a Boston-based journalist and author of "Secret Agents: The Menace of Emerging Infections."

NEARLY 2 MILLION Americans could die in a flu pandemic, which many scientists say is not just inevitable but long overdue. In such an emergency, national leaders would need to be forthright and candid to gain our trust — or risk chaos.

But recent polls show that President Bush's approval ratings have sunk below 50% and that deception about the Iraq war, as well as federal mismanagement after Hurricane Katrina, have hurt his credibility. That loss of public faith is almost as scary as the virus itself. When citizens are skeptical or defiant in the face of severe disease, fear becomes epidemic, leading to confusion and often needless deaths.
snip
Words count. "The core of crisis communication is demonstrating competence, transparency, passion and compassion," said Howard Koh, director of the Center for Public Health Preparedness at the Harvard School of Public Health and a former Massachusetts commissioner of public health. Against those standards, if a flu pandemic hit tomorrow, this White House's words would fall on deaf ears.

How can leaders launch a vital national conversation on pandemic influenza?

First, they must earn back Americans' trust. That has been squandered in the failed federal response to Hurricane Katrina, the daily horror in Iraq, the unsolved epidemic of mail-borne anthrax in 2001 and the color-coded terror alerts after 9/11. Even the president's flu plan, announced in early November, seemed tardy.
snip
In crises, great communicators help citizens steel themselves for suffering, while also protecting them. "But we first have to admit that something tragic will happen," Schoch-Spana said.

Most important, leaders must take real action to get the country ready. Until now, the Bush administration has largely ignored this long-feared catastrophe. It forced local public health departments to divert their scarce resources to bureaucracy-laden bioterrorism preparedness. It didn't offer ways for hospitals to handle a flood of patients should disaster strike. It dismissed the need for domestic vaccine production. It failed to order enough Tamiflu — and by the time it tried, many other governments were standing ahead of us in line.

The Pandemic Influenza Plan leaves cash-strapped and staff-starved state and local health departments to pay for drugs and other vital necessities and to logistically handle a crisis on their own. That approach makes sense in one respect, because all public health preparedness and response ultimately takes place locally.
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/suncommentary/la-op-drexler8jan08,1,1297395.story?coll=la-headlines-suncomment&ctrack=1&cset=true

[PATRICK]

92. Are they kidding? Bush doesn't care

Bush only thinks of exploiting and profiting. Bush won't spend a nickel or raise a finger other than to pass the word to the Noise machine. The plague already afflicting the LATImes is a lack of common sense which flew like a bird out the window on this one.

Bush has to go or people will die needlessly. Any other executive would be trounced on lesser signs of no confidence, incompetence. and belligerent denial stripping away people's ability to even help themselves.

What world is that paper living in? There is only one leader and that leader is a negative.

[iamthebandfanman]

84. obviously its going to spread

i mean
you have people in alot of countries who believe these types of things are only myths and dont actually exsist.

[Mojorabbit]

85. As Bird Flu Spreads, Officials Shift to Vaccination Campaigns

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/22/international/europe/22cnd-flu.html?_r=1&oref=login
ROME, Feb. 22 — Concerned that migrating birds might seed European poultry farms with the H5N1 virus, the Netherlands and France were granted special permission by the European Commission today to protect their billion-dollar industries by vaccinating large numbers of domestic poultry.

In addition, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization recommended today that vaccinations should be used to control a series of outbreaks in Nigeria that local officials have been unable to stem with conventional measures, like culling birds in zones around the outbreaks and increasing surveillance for disease at bird markets.
snip
The European Union has a general "no vaccination" policy for animal diseases, largely because of worries that meat from animals that had been given shots would be less marketable.

But with the flu now showing up in France and Germany, Cees Veerman, the Dutch minister of agriculture, "became convinced that vaccination is the only way to prevent the disease, to beat avian influenza," said Cindy Heijdra, a spokeswoman for the ministry.
snip

Many European governments had previously rejected the idea of vaccinations because of worries that it would make it more difficult to track the spread of the virus; some screening tests for H5N1 cannot distinguish between birds that have been vaccinated and those that are sick with the virus.

snip

Still, even as the European Commission approved the requests by France and the Netherlands, it expressed uneasiness with the vaccine plans, noting that they were limited in scope and subject to "rigorous surveillance and control requirements."

[Mojorabbit]

86. Egypt panics

Bird flu fears lead to panic buying of water in Egypt

Cairo, Feb. 23. (AP): Health officials on Wednesday sought to reassure the public that Cairo's drinking water supply is safe, after fears of bird flu sparked a panic of buying bottled water.

State television and radio broadcast repeated reports on Wednesday that drinking water in Egypt's capital city was safe, after a rumour that chickens infected with bird flu had been tossed into Cairo's water reservoirs and into the Nile rapidly. The rumour spread quickly across the city on Tuesday, leading to thousands of phone calls and mobile phone text messages.

The Health Ministry's switchboard was choked by calls from anxious citizens. Bottles of mineral water disappeared from shop shelves, and there was also heavy buying of soft drinks.

The fears came four days after Egypt announced that the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu had been found in chickens and turkeys in Giza, the twin city of Cairo, and in southern provinces. No human cases of bird flu have been diagnosed, however.
http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/holnus/003200602230301.htm

[SaveElmer]

89. Result of poor media coverage IMO...

Who could not produce a balanced report if their life depended on it. This is what happens when innacuarate and sensationilistic reporting supplant balance. It is just making the situation worse for these people unnecessarily.

[Mojorabbit]

93. France suspects bird flu at turkey farm

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=worldNews&storyID=2006-02-23T155717Z_01_PAB002370_RTRUKOC_0_US-BIRDFLU-FRANCE-FARM.xml&archived=False
PARIS (Reuters) - France has found a suspected outbreak of H5N1 bird flu at a turkey farm in the east of the country, the farm ministry said on Thursday.

If confirmed, it would be the first case of the virus spreading to domestic farm birds in the European Union.

The ministry said a high mortality rate among turkeys was discovered at the farm, which has more than 11,000 birds and is situated in the department of Ain, where two cases of the disease have already been confirmed in wild ducks.

Test results are due on Friday, it added.

The farm has been cordoned off and all birds will be culled. The ministry said a security zone of 2 miles had been set up around the farm as is usual under the European Union emergency measures.