STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 20 February -CLOSED, sorry

[ozymandius]

Closed for President's Day.

Monday February 20, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1064 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1887 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1587 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1548
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 17, 2006

Dow... 11,115.32 -5.36 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq... 2,282.36 -12.27 (-0.53%)
S&P 500... 1,287.24 -2.14 (-0.17%)
30-Year Bond 4.51% -0.07 (-1.49%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.54% -0.06 (-1.20%)
Gold future... 554.60 +5.80 (+1.05%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Dow Theory Clears the Secondary Hurdle

This past week was an important week for the markets from a Dow theory perspective as the Secondary non-confirmation that had been forming has now been corrected. On January 11, 2006 the Industrials made a new recovery high. From that high point the averages turned down into short-term lows. It was from those lows that this non-confirmation began.

As you can see in the chart below, the Transports continued higher into their January 31st high as price advanced out of the mid-January temporary low. This left a Secondary non-confirmation in the making. I said in the January 27th WrapUp that the challenge for the Industrials was to better the recent January high.

This past week, the Industrials did just that and the Secondary non-confirmation has been correct.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[EuroObserver]

2. Well, Tokyo was quite bloody, earlier today:

Nikkei hits 4-week low as foreign selling weighs
TOKYO (Reuters) - The Nikkei share average closed below 15,500 for the first time in a month on Monday, declining 1.75 percent as Sony Corp. extended losses after a brokerage downgrade and as concerns about foreign selling weighed on shares across the board.

Steady net selling of Japanese equities by foreign investors -- whose record buying helped drive the Nikkei to its best performance in nearly two decades last year -- has battered market sentiment in recent sessions. "Fundamentals are not really a worry. However, foreign investors are selling. Up until now, they have been the ones supporting the market. If they start selling other investors have a hard time buying aggressively," said Toshihiko Matsuno, assistant general manager of investment research at SMBC Friend Securities. "There are very few Japanese investors who have the confidence to keep on buying ... they tend to follow the big players."

Orders placed by 12 foreign brokerages before the start of trade on Monday were for net selling, marking the eighth straight session when foreign brokerages showed an intention to shed more shares than they wanted to buy.

The Nikkei finished down 275.52 points at 15,437.93, its lowest close since January 23. The broader TOPIX index finished down 2.07 percent at 1,572.11.
...

Foreign investors may be shifting funds away from Japan, drawn in part by a rebound in U.S. stocks that pushed the Dow Jones industrial index to its highest in 4- years last week, said Takashi Ushio, head of investment strategy at Marusan Securities. "Right now, U.S. stocks are at multi-year highs, so I get the feeling that global money is starting to move away from Japan and into the United States," he said.

It also may take some time for that money to return to Japan, as the Nikkei's 2005 bull run made Japanese equities look overpriced to foreign investors, said Soichiro Monji, strategist at Daiwa SB Investments. "Foreign investors aren't merely looking for stocks that seem reasonably priced, they look at PER (price-to-earnings ratio)," Monji said. "Japan is still expensive compared to Europe and the United States, so I think it might be a bit early for them to turn back to buying."

...more...

[EuroObserver]

4. JGB yields dip from 5-year highs as Nikkei falls

TOKYO, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Japanese government bond prices were mostly higher on Monday, pulling shorter-term yields down from five-year highs, as the Nikkei average <.N225> fell sharply for a second straight session.

Analysts said short-term bond prices were also gaining on a view that after a recent sell-off the market has already fully factored in an end to the Bank of Japan's ultra-easy monetary policy. "The yields in the short- and mid-term sectors have risen to levels that start to price in a possible end to zero interest rates, as well as the end of the quantitative easing policy," said Tetsuya Miura, a JGB strategist at Shinko Securities.

Despite a near 2 percent fall in the Nikkei average, the rise in bond prices was limited and long-term bonds declined. Some investors were wary of buying ahead of a 700 billion yen ($6 billion) auction of 20-year JGBs on Tuesday, traders said.

Shorter-dated JGBs have suffered the most in the last few weeks on expectations that the BOJ will scrap its "quantitative easing" policy of flooding the banking sector with excess cash in coming months and may increase interest rates later in the year. But traders said some investors were buying short- to mid-term notes, finding the two-year yield attractive above 0.4 percent and the five-year yield worthwhile around 1 percent.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

5. Yen May Rise As Carry Trades Start To Unwind

TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Currency traders in Tokyo are watching precious metals and oil futures more closely, because a fall in prices in those markets could boost the yen.

Lower prices for oil and gold are encouraging hedge funds to exit yen carry trades that have acted to push the Japanese currency lower. If the unwinding of these trades continues, the dollar could dip to a one-month low of Y116 and the euro could drop to a one-month low around Y139 in the near term, analysts say.

Speculators enter a carry trade by borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and then using those funds to purchase assets denominated in currencies with high interest rates.

In this case, hedge funds took full advantage last year of Japan's near-zero, short-term rates by entering yen carry trades to fund purchases of gold and oil. After borrowing in yen, they exchanged the Japanese currency for dollars to buy the commodities, eventually sending gold to a 25-year high and pushing light, sweet crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange close to their all-time high last month.

But some hedge funds are taking profits on those heady gains, triggering a corrective fall in many commodities and forcing other hedge funds to liquidate their long positions.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

3. Meanwhile, Europe looks a little more sanguine, oil rising...

Swiss SMI up 0.24% at 7936.00 in Zurich 13:19:04 CET
Xetra Dax 30 down -0.1% at 5,789.39 in Frankfurt 13:38 CET
CAC 40 down -0.5% at 4,976.26 in Paris 13:25 CET
FTSE 100 up 0.1% at 5,851.6 in mid-session trade in London 12:00 GMT
...
Xetra Dax 30 opens flat at 5,796.0 in Frankfurt 09:11 CET
CAC 40 opens down 0.5% at 4,976.2 in Paris 09:06 CET
FTSE 100 opens up 0.1% at 5,853.0 in London 08:05 GMT


Bourses tread carefully after Nigerian attacks
European markets made a cautious start to trading on Monday after militant attacks in Nigeria pushed crude oil prices higher. The cautious tone was reflected by weakness in other global equity markets. In Japan, the Nikkei ended below the 15,000 level for the first time in a month while following a weak ending on Friday, the US market is closed for the Presidents Day holiday today. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 was virtually flat, trading just 0.6 points lower at 1,342.25 shortly after the opening while the German Xetra Dax was 0.6 points weaker at 5,795.62 but the French CAC 40 fell 18.7 points or 0.4 per cent to 4,981.3. In London, the FTSE bucked the weakness elsewhere in continental Europe and moved 9.1 points or 0.2 per cent higher to 5,854.8, helped by takeover speculation in the mining sector and strength among oil companies.

Oils boost FTSE, investors wait for more M&A
LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - A spike of more than $1 in the price of oil boosted leading UK shares on Monday but blue chips showed only modest gains as investors waited for much-talked-about bids to materialise.

Oil shares, which account for about 20 percent of the FTSE 100's <.FTSE> index weighting, pushed ahead as unrest disrupted output in Nigeria. Concerns also persisted over Iran's nuclear intentions as Iranian and Russian officials meet to discuss a compromise before western governments seek sanctions. BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 1.8 percent and 0.9 percent.
...

Elsewhere on the bid front, ports group P&O (PO.L: Quote, Profile, Research) dipped 0.2 percent, unsettled by news a U.S. congressman has called for its agreed takeover by Dubai Ports World to be frozen until an investigation could be carried out. P&O manages six U.S. ports. ...more...

Europe stocks weaken, oils lend support
LONDON, Feb 20 (Reuters) - European stocks opened weaker on Monday, but still hovered close to 4-1/2 year highs, with oil stocks providing support and with corporate earnings and takeover activity still dominating investors' attention.

Drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) fell on uncertainty over the fate of a key drug, while industrial gases group BOC (BOC.L: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped after sources said a deal with Linde (LING.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) remained weeks away.

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of leading European shares was down 0.2 percent at 1,340.29 points by 0831 GMT, after hitting its highest level since Aug. 2001 on Friday. Trade is expected to remain light with U.S. markets closed for a holiday.

"The only thing driving it today is mergers and acquisitions, it's the story today as it has been for the last couple of weeks," said Oliver Stevens, senior equity trader at IG Index. "There's good sentiment out there about corporate earnings."

Oil stocks rose, with BP (BP.L: Quote, Profile, Research) up 1 percent and Total (TOTF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) trading 0.8 percent higher as militant attacks in Nigeria boosted the price of crude <CLcL> to $59.75 a barrel. ...more...

[EuroObserver]

6. EU ‘must avoid greater energy dependence’

...
Western Europe’s growing dependence on Russia and other energy suppliers means the European Union will have to use aid and trade policies to bolster its energy security, a long-awaited report has concluded.

A green paper by the European Commission, a draft of which has been seen by the Financial Times, says the EU will have to put energy security at the heart of its relationship with the outside world and strive to avoid greater dependence.

The report, requested by EU leaders last year, has been extensively revised since Russia shocked much of Europe by cutting off gas passing through Ukraine at the start of the year.

“The recent events have been a wake up call,” said Benita Ferrero-Waldner, external relations commissioner... She added: “We have to use all our instruments... to bring internal and external policy together to bring about a safe, affordable and sustainable energy supply for our citizens and industry. This is not about choosing one partner rather than another; it’s about maintaining diversity of energy supply.”
...

The draft says that the European Investment Bank, an EU institution with a total lending portfolio of €47.4bn ($56.4bn, £32.4bn), should focus more on projects that boost the EU’s energy security by improving infrastructure. It adds that the EU needs to “make better use of trade policy tools” through the World Trade Organisation’s dispute settlement system and give greater emphasis to energy in the EU’s “neighbourhood” agreements with nearby countries.

Many Commission officials say the EU missed an opportunity in 2004 when it asked for only relatively minor reforms to Russia’s gas sector in return for backing the country’s bid to join the WTO.

Between them, Russia, Norway and Algeria meet half of the EU’s gas needs and dependence is set to increase over coming decades. The report says that investments of €600bn will be needed over the next 20 years to meet future EU energy demand. It is scheduled to be issued next month.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

28. European close: Safe havens, anyone?

Swiss SMI up 0.42% at 7950.22 in Zurich 17:31:10 CET
Xetra Dax 30 closes flat at 5,793.95 in Frankfurt 17:43 CET
CAC 40 closes down -0.4% at 4,979.94 in Paris 17:43 CET
FTSE 100 closes up 0.3% at 5,863.0 in London 16:44 GMT
FTSE 250 closes down -0.2% at 9,456.8 in London 16:42 GMT
FTSE Eurofirst 300 up 0.2% at 1,345.64 in closing exchanges in London 16:30 GMT


European bourses close higher after volatile trading session
Strength in the oil sector helped the FTSE Eurofirst to reverse early weakness and inch higher in afternoon trade on Monday although traders remained cautious after further attacks by militants in Nigeria pushed crude prices higher. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 added 2.8 points, 0.2 per cent to 1,345.64 in closing exchanges while the German Xetra Dax closed flat, down just 1.5 points at 5,793.95 and the French CAC 40 fell 20.06 points or 0.4 per cent to 4,979.94. In London, the FTSE bucked the weakness elsewhere in continental Europe and edged higher helped by takeover speculation in the mining sector and strength among oil companies. The FTSE 100 closed up 16.8 points, or 0.3 per cent to 5,863.0.

London closes at fresh highs as takeover talk continues
London equities reached fresh four-and-a-half year highs on Monday amid a fresh batch of takeover speculation. Kingfisher, the retailer behind the B&Q do-it-yourself chain, gained 3 per cent to 231.5p after a Sunday newspaper reported that Lowe’s, a US retailer, was interested in bidding for the group. BOC rose 1.5 per cent to £15.12 on talk that Linde of Germany was preparing a second approach for the industrial gasses company after being rebuffed last month. Miners BHP Billiton and Xstrata both rose as the sector remained in focus following an approach for platinum group Lonmin. BHP, up 2.2 per cent at £10.06, is seen as a possible bidder for Xstrata should this round of consolidation take in the heavyweight players. Xstrata gained 2.4 per cent ot £17.39. However, Lonmin shares, which jumped 25 per cent on Friday’s approach, lost 2.2 per cent to £26.14 by the close of trade. In the wider market, the FTSE 100 closed 16.8 points, 0.3 per cent higher at 5,863.0 as heavyweight oil stocks rose. However, the FTSE 250 slipped from its all-time high, down 16 points, or 0.2 per cent to 9,456.8.

Eurozone bonds remain higher
Eurozone government bonds remained higher on Monday following the rally at the end of last week. Weaker equities and rising oil prices also prompted investors into the safe haven of government bonds. Bond prices gained despite news that producer prices in Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, rose 1.2 per cent in January. That amounts to a 5.6 per cent rise annually, the highest in well over a decade. ...more...

[54anickel]

7. The Case for Fewer but Stronger Currencies

I posted this last night in LBN, but it was moved. Thought it was rather important to our dollar and currency discussions. Google "Dollarization" - it's being pushed like supply-side economics was.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/19/business/yourmoney/19view.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

OUTSOURCING isn't just a one-way street on which rich countries shift jobs overseas. In recent years, some developing countries have contracted out the work of setting monetary policy to the United States. Ecuador and El Salvador, in 2000 and 2001, respectively, abandoned their own currencies, adopted the dollar and placed their monetary policy in the capable hands of Alan Greenspan, then the chairman of the Federal Reserve.

When outsourcing involves manufacturing and software programming it is often endorsed by economists and condemned by populist political leaders. So, too, is the tactic of outsourcing of monetary policy — known as dollarization, or euro-ization. After all, noted Robert E. Litan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institute, "currencies are symbols of national sovereignty, and countries are reluctant to give them up."

And yet nations can impose enormous costs on their citizens when they take extraordinary efforts to maintain independent currencies. "Devaluations of currencies cost people their savings and bring on rapid inflation," said Benn Steil, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and co-author with Mr. Litan of "Financial Statecraft" (Yale University Press, 2006). The two argue that the globe's mélange of 200-plus currencies, backed only by the faith of investors, is inefficient and dangerous. Many emerging economies, they say, would be well advised to swap their currencies for strong, stable, widely used ones like the dollar or euro.

snip>

Large countries like the United States have to tread lightly in advocating that small countries give up their currencies. In 2000, Congress considered — but did not pass — the International Monetary Stability Act, which would have provided financial assistance to countries that adopted the dollar.

snip>

Advocates of dollarization recognize that the trend is also at odds with the prevailing political winds in the Western Hemisphere. "There is a mini-anti-American revolt going on in Latin America as we speak," Mr. Litan said. "Countries that would otherwise be interested, like Bolivia and Venezuela, have elected leftist governments" that are ardently opposed to dollarization.

But Mr. Litan says he believes that time may be on the side of the dollar: "History has marched toward the euro, and it is slowly marching toward the dollar."

more...

[54anickel]

23. The End of Dollar Hegemony (Ron Paul)

I believe someone posted this last week, but it sort of ties in nicely with this "dollarization" movement.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/paul/paul021806.html

snip>

"Dollar Diplomacy," a policy instituted by William Howard Taft and his Secretary of State Philander C. Knox, was designed to enhance U.S. commercial investments in Latin America and the Far East. McKinley concocted a war against Spain in 1898, and (Teddy) Roosevelt's corollary to the Monroe Doctrine preceded Taft's aggressive approach to using the U.S. dollar and diplomatic influence to secure U.S. investments abroad. This earned the popular title of "Dollar Diplomacy." The significance of Roosevelt's change was that our intervention now could be justified by the mere "appearance" that a country of interest to us was politically or fiscally vulnerable to European control. Not only did we claim a right, but even an official U.S. government "obligation" to protect our commercial interests from Europeans.

This new policy came on the heels of the "gunboat" diplomacy of the late 19th century, and it meant we could buy influence before resorting to the threat of force. By the time the "dollar diplomacy" of William Howard Taft was clearly articulated, the seeds of American empire were planted. And they were destined to grow in the fertile political soil of a country that lost its love and respect for the republic bequeathed to us by the authors of the Constitution. And indeed they did. It wasn't too long before dollar "diplomacy" became dollar "hegemony" in the second half of the 20th century.

This transition only could have occurred with a dramatic change in monetary policy and the nature of the dollar itself.

snip>

Amazingly, a new system was devised which allowed the U.S. to operate the printing presses for the world reserve currency with no restraints placed on it-- not even a pretense of gold convertibility, none whatsoever! Though the new policy was even more deeply flawed, it nevertheless opened the door for dollar hegemony to spread.

Realizing the world was embarking on something new and mind boggling, elite money managers, with especially strong support from U.S. authorities, struck an agreement with OPEC to price oil in U.S. dollars exclusively for all worldwide transactions. This gave the dollar a special place among world currencies and in essence "backed" the dollar with oil. In return, the U.S. promised to protect the various oil-rich kingdoms in the Persian Gulf against threat of invasion or domestic coup. This arrangement helped ignite the radical Islamic movement among those who resented our influence in the region. The arrangement gave the dollar artificial strength, with tremendous financial benefits for the United States. It allowed us to export our monetary inflation by buying oil and other goods at a great discount as dollar influence flourished.

snip>

Our whole economic system depends on continuing the current monetary arrangement, which means recycling the dollar is crucial. Currently, we borrow over $700 billion every year from our gracious benefactors, who work hard and take our paper for their goods. Then we borrow all the money we need to secure the empire (DOD budget $450 billion) plus more. The military might we enjoy becomes the "backing" of our currency. There are no other countries that can challenge our military superiority, and therefore they have little choice but to accept the dollars we declare are today's "gold." This is why countries that challenge the system-- like Iraq, Iran and Venezuela-- become targets of our plans for regime change.

more...

[AnneD]

8. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: Thanks for keeping us updated EU. Just because WS is closed today doesn't mean the world is asleep. The market takes a breather today, but I am glad this thread is open as it gives us a chance to clear the air and focus about market related things.
I am curious about where you can find charts, what you use or recommend. I want to have a specific set of charts that I can run company info through. Right now I have a scattered group of websites and that makes it difficult and time consuming. Is there one really good site. I want to get MAC-D, Stockastic, Insider info, Industry trends (and just what are the major industry categories anyway). I and planning to look at some e-line stock trading co in the next week or so. I want to start a small account and do my own trading. I was thinking of doing this in a self directed IRA, but of course anytime I call a broker or mutual fund, I get no info except a sales pitch.
So any of you traders out there that can steer me to a starting place, I would be grateful.
Hope you WS guys have a great day off. EU, hope you have a light day and enjoy and nice dinner and some good wine at the end of your workday. Salud :toast:

[EuroObserver]

10. Morning AnneD. I thought the Resident already took lots of days off.

(sarcasm).

Me, I don't chart on a regular basis: with my geography/ecology/sociology academic background, I tend to focus more on the overall 'gestalt', the geopolitical situation, and market 'psychology' or 'sentiment' (including of course the contrarian) in general.

Having said that, I'm always willing to learn, and indeed I feel I learn a lot from this daily thread, so I'll be following... I'll be back after a (longish) lunch...

PS., AnneD, I hope 'hubby' is OK following his recent bad experience.

[54anickel]

12. The Conundrum of Risk (Sort of ties into the focus on "gestalt")

http://www.frontlinethoughts.com/printarticle.asp?id=mwo021706

snip>

Let's set the stage. GaveKal was writing about the proliferation of new investments and financial vehicles available to corporations and individuals. They, of course, see this explosion as a very good thing, as opposed to others who see the increase of total debt in the system as bad. But then they add this paragraph of concern:

"But for all of our enthusiasm about Our Brave New World, and for how our world keeps changing for the better, we nevertheless fear that there is one trend we should not discard too lightly: the tendency of investors to project their recent experiences into the future. This tendency might be the third explanation behind the large increase in the velocity of money, and one of the explanations behind the markets' ability to make multi year highs in the face of tightening primary liquidity, high oil, weak Yen etc..."

This is something about which I have written at length. It is part of the human psyche, and one of the main reasons that analysts and investors are so wrong in their predictions. It is why we have runaway bull markets and every now and then bubble markets. We move the price of an asset class until it is priced for perfection. Then along comes a disappointment and the bull stumbles or the bubble is pricked.

One of the main themes of The Millennium Wave is that we are going to see unprecedented waves of change in the next 20 years. But one of the things that will not change is human psychology. Human beings are not just irrational. We are as a group predictably irrational. We tend to make the same mistakes over and over again.

As Nobel Laureate Hyman Minsky points out, stability leads to instability. The more comfortable we get with a given condition or trend, the longer it will persist and then when the trend fails, the more dramatic the correction. The problem with long term macroeconomic stability is that it tends to produce unstable financial arrangements. If we believe that tomorrow and next year will be the same as last week and last year, we are more willing to add debt or postpone savings for current consumption. Thus, says Minsky, the longer the period of stability, the higher the potential risk for even greater instability when market participants must change their behavior.

Now, with that in mind, let's go to Hunt Taylor's column. Put on your thinking caps, gentle readers. This one is chock full of insights.

more...

[EuroObserver]

15. Thanks 54anickel. Printed for lunchtime reading.

(See meanwhile post #14).

[AnneD]

17. Thanks...

hubby is very upset-he had been out on an interview for an overseas job 3 days before and lost his passport, social security card, cell phone, checkbook, $75, and Visa debit card. They had already maxed out the debit card and made phone calls. I had cautioned him about carrying that much info on him.We suspect it is the same pair that mugged me (broke my finger but didn't get too much from me).

We are trying to find a place within our budget, which is hard to do. I start a part-time job in March and we hope he gets a promotion this week (he has the interview tomorrow-one of the interviewers is our friend from Spain). He wants to move yesterday, but it will be March or April by the budget.

The fact that these guys have advanced to armed robbery is not good. All my neighbors are banding togather to help one another (leaving the porch lights on, exchanging phone numbers, etc). The entire area has taken a turn for the worst. In fact, this Sunday morning, I took our dogs out early and heard quit a bit of gunfire in the distance. It is just inexcusiable that this is going on.

I like your take on the gestalt. I think that can be reflected in the trend and thus chartable to a degree. I may miss a rise by a bit but I am out like a jackrabbit on a decline. Declines go faster than rises in stocks. I have no problem getting out too early.

[KayLaw]

9. Question for Ozymandius

Since there's not much going on today, could I please ask where you find your wonderful cartoons? My son needs to know for a school project. Thanks.

:hi:

[JNelson6563]

11. Here are some of Ozy's links

http://www.anntelnaes.com/
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/opinions/cartoonsandvideos/
http://cartoonbox.slate.com/hottopic/?topicid=47&image=0&nav=opinion
http://www.comics.com/editoons/

Posted these in case Oz doesn't check back in with markets closed and all. Hope your son gets good grade on the project. :toast:

Julie

[ozymandius]

13. Thanks Julie.

Just checking in - being a slow day and all around these parts.

Ozy :hi:

[KayLaw]

16. Thanks, Julie and Ozy

We appreciate the help.

[EuroObserver]

14. ALARM / Global Systemic Rupture

A world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises
http://www.europe2020.org/en/section_global/150206.htm
...
LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably too:

1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis

The entire process of anticipation of this crisis will be described in detail in the coming issues of LEAP/E2020’s confidential letter – the GlobalEurope Anticipation Bulletin, and in particular in the 2nd issue to be released on February 16, 2006. These coming issues will present the detailed analysis of each of the 7 crises, together with a large set of recommendations intended for various categories of players (governments and companies, namely), as well as with a number of operational and strategic advices for the European Union.
...

However, and in order not to limit this information to decision makers solely, LEAP/E2020 has decided to circulate widely this official statement together with the following series of arguments resulting from work conducted.

...more...

[54anickel]

18. Ugh! From the article -

If this Alarm is so precise, it is that LEAP/E2020’s analyses concluded that all possible scenarios now lead to one single result: we collectively approach a "historical node" which is henceforth inevitable whatever the action of international or national actors. At this stage, only a direct and immediate action on the part of the US administration aimed at preventing a military confrontation with Iran on the one hand, and at giving up the idea to monetarise the US foreign debt on the other hand, could change the course of events. For LEAP/E2020 it is obvious that not only such actions will not be initiated by the current leaders in Washington, but that on the contrary they have already chosen "to force the destiny" by shirking their economic and financial problems at the expense of the rest of the world. European governments in particular should draw very quickly all the conclusions from this fact.

[AnneD]

19. How far have we sunk...

in just 5+ years. Can we bring Bill back? So much of economy is based on faith. I think it is very obvious to many in the US and Internationally who our real leader still is. If he's game, I am.We are headed into serious times, we need a serious leader.

[54anickel]

22. What Bush Is Up To

http://www.antiwar.com/reese/?articleid=8567

snip>

But from conversations I've had with people from the Middle East and from extensive reading, I infer that the Bush administration's policy encompasses three goals:

One of the goals is to replace the present Syrian government with one the administration hopes will be more pliable in its policy toward Israel. Another is to construct four permanent bases in Iraq, and that means the administration has no intention of ever withdrawing all U.S. forces. The third goal is to attack Iran's nuclear facilities from the air. The propaganda campaign to justify this attack is already under way.

The U.S. government has lied a lot about Syria. It has implied that Syria was helping jihadists slip into Iraq. Some of the neoconservatives have claimed that Iraq hid its infamous nonexistent weapons of mass destruction in Syria. Now they have joined in accusing the Syrian government of assassinating a Lebanese politician. They've even picked out a successor to the current president of Syria. More recently, they accused Syria of inciting mobs to burn a foreign embassy in Damascus during a riot related to the prophet cartoons.

In fact, Syria's government is Ba'athist – that is to say, it is secular, socialist and nationalistic. It highly disapproves of religious extremists, whether Shi'ites or Sunni. There is no evidence whatsoever that Syria incited the mobs to burn the foreign embassy in Damascus. Professor Juan Cole searched the databases of Arab newspapers and radio broadcasts, which are monitored and translated by the U.S. government and the BBC. Not a peep from the Syrian government in the way of incitement.

The Syrian ambassador to the U.S. told me of another instance of U.S. lying. Our government asked the Syrian government to help it catch an Iraqi who was hiding in a tribal area that extended across the border, partly in Iraq and partly in Syria. The Syrian government agreed and indeed captured the man and 32 of his followers, all of whom were handed over to the U.S. Syria asked the U.S. for only one thing in return: just tell the world we cooperated with you.

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[JNelson6563]

32. Hoo-boy. That's ugly.

1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis

:scared: The thing is, most people won't see it coming.

Julie

[54anickel]

20. Seasonally Mal-Adjusted (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060217-fri.html#anchor0

snip>

Of course, there never seems to be a normal year -- or a normal month, for that matter. January 2006 is an obvious case in point. There is no way that any seasonal factors could be in sync with last month’s 27% increase in the national temperature from its historic norm. According to NOAA, January is normally colder than December by 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit. This winter, it was warmer than December by 6.1 degrees. As a result, last month’s deviation from climactic norms has undoubtedly had a huge distorting impact on the official seasonally-adjusted measures of many facets of economic activity. Three recent examples come to mind -- each of which has had an important impact in driving recent trends in financial markets:

snip>

In the realm of seasonal adjustment, what goes around, comes around. That means payback time is coming. Remember, as noted above, over any 12-month time span, the seasonal adjustment factors must always average out to “one.” That means if the statistically filtered (a.k.a. seasonally adjusted) verdict in any one month is distorted to the upside, it won’t take much to push the numbers to the downside in subsequent months. All it would require in the current instance would be a return to more normal weather. Relative to a uniquely hot winter month, like January 2006, such a normal month -- to say nothing of an unusually cold month -- would be the functional equivalent of a major jolt to the seasonally adjusted data.

As luck would have it, that’s exactly -- the normal month, that is -- what the weather experts suggest is now unfolding in February. According to NOAA, the jet stream has already migrated back to its more normal position after having been pushed unusually far to the north in January. The Blizzard of 2006, which wreaked havoc on the Northeast over the February 11-13 period and stranded me for a couple days, is only one example of such a return to climactic norms. If this typical seasonal pattern holds for a couple of more weeks, prepare yourself for a reversal of much of the good news on the economy that the markets have been so thrilled about during the past few days. In other words, don’t be surprised to see dark headlines describing the upcoming February reports on housing starts, retail sales, employment, and the like.

The GDP report, that ultimate arbiter of economic truth, suffers from many of the same statistical distortions noted above. Our US team currently looks for the 4Q05 report to be revised upward from an anemic 1.1% annualized growth in the US economy to a still weak 1.6%. But based on the incoming statistically-distorted data, they now think the economy is tracking a 5.6% annualized growth rate in 1Q06. These two numbers obviously span the gamut of the economic outcomes that are being debated in the financial markets. Maybe the truth is somewhere in between, in which case everything would be just fine. But then again, maybe the real message is in the extremes.

Which outcome is closer to the true state of the US economy -- the energy-shocked, consumer-led slowdown of late 2005 or the apparent heat-seeking burst of activity in early 2006? Financial markets have voted for the latter. So has the Fed’s new Maestro. My advice is don’t play with statistical fire. There may have been more truth to the weakness of the economy in late 2005 than most are willing to accept. The case for a post-housing-bubble capitulation of the American consumer remains a very real threat in 2006. But rest assured of one thing: It will be exceedingly difficult to make much of anything out of the seasonally mal-adjusted data reports of the next few months.

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[AnneD]

26. There are some irreputable truths....

If we do not have a cold winter here in Texas, Louisanna, and the rest of the Southern Gulf states, the waters remain warm. If the waters of the Gulf remain warm, hurricanes will increase in intensity (they disperse the heat from the waters). If we have another season like last season, to my mind, that will be another fact to bolster global warming theories.

The economy does have absolutes too. How long can you continue to give bogus employement stats before you realize that all of those unreported (dropped) workers add up to 10-20% of your living population. Unemployeed people consume necessities only and the economy grinds to a halt.

If I can mix my metaphors now, I find myself increasingly reading about the Depression as I see us hitting the 'Perfect Storm' brought on by all this tinkering. Who knows when or how it strikes, but strike it will and we can only hope we are as prepared as we can be.

[54anickel]

21. Fannie, Freddie Keep Up Lobbying

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/19/AR2006021900874.html

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last year together spent nearly $23 million on lobbying, as Congress considered legislation to tighten oversight of the two mortgage finance companies in response to their multibillion-dollar accounting scandals.

According to records filed last week with the House of Representatives, the two companies remained among the most prolific corporate spenders on lobbying, despite controversy over their efforts to influence lawmakers.

The two companies are heavily regulated by Congress and chartered with a public mission of encouraging homeownership. Critics argue that their lobbying has been too geared toward trying to avoid tighter regulation and toward benefiting stockholders.

Freddie Mac spent $12.6 million on lobbying, down from $15.44 million in 2004 but still enough to place it 11th among corporations that so far have filed lobbying disclosure forms for 2005, according to the Web site PoliticalMoneyLine. Fannie Mae was 15th. The rankings are likely to change because many of the 2005 filings are still being processed, but in previous years Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac routinely ranked in the top 25.

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[54anickel]

24. Oil up $1.50 after Nigeria attacks

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-02-20T163331Z_01_SP261797_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-OIL.xml

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil leapt $1.50 on Monday after rebels bombed Nigeria's oil industry and some OPEC ministers suggested the cartel may need to cut output in spring.

Nigerian militants knocked out 19 percent of supplies from the world's eighth biggest oil exporter by attacking a major tanker terminal and blowing up a pipeline over the weekend.

OPEC member Nigeria's biggest foreign operator Royal Dutch Shell (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research) suspended 455,000 barrels per day of output. The rebels threatened more violence in a campaign to free two ethnic leaders and win influence over the Niger Delta's oil wealth.

With U.S. markets closed for a holiday, the focus was on London where Brent crude futures <LCOc1> climbed $1.46 a barrel to $61.35. Traders of west African crude, which mostly sells to the United States and Asia, were trying to assess the impact but forecast the cost of Nigerian oil would rise.

"There is a realization that no one can be complacent about supplies," said independent oil consultant Geoff Pyne.

Last week oil looked to be in steady decline from last year's record high of above $70 a barrel.

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Hmmm, and just when they were seeing oil markets becoming over-supplied. :tinfoilhat:

[AnneD]

27. and the real pizzer...

the Nigerians 'terrorists' know what the foreign workers make. They just want more of the profits from the Nigerian oil to stay in Nigeria and the workers get paid more money. I think in the year of record profits, they can give the real workers a little more in the pay envelope.

[EuroObserver]

29. The Nigerian Delta's troubled waters

...
Abandoned aid projects litter the Delta: an unfinished hospital building here; a fish processing factory that never went into production there; and an artesian well dug then abandoned and which now flows with contaminated water right next to a village desperate for a clean supply.

These are not isolated cases but sadly typical, leaving local communities bitter over the massive waste they see all around them.

In some parts of the Delta, such resentment has boiled over into militant activity, kidnappings of foreign oil workers and attacks on production facilities.

These groups demand greater access to the region's wealth, but in reality few of them really seek to represent the legitimate grievances of the local population.

Their real business is oil theft, breaking into the pipelines that criss-cross the remote and inaccessible region.

Although the oil companies will not or cannot give accurate figures for the amount of oil lost in this way, the volumes are staggering with armed gangs operating fleets of barges and tankers, permitted to go about their business by politicians and businessmen who collude in the plunder.

...more...

[AnneD]

30. They get support because the population is being ripped off....

If Oil companies wanted to improve their image with the locals, they would establish a trust above and beyond what they pay and use that trust for the betterment of the population (aid with education etc). It would be fairly cheap and mean so much to those folks.

[EuroObserver]

31. ...or a truly representative government would insist

on something similar.

[54anickel]

25. Asia keeps gold above $550

http://business.iafrica.com/news/909884.htm

Fund-buying coupled with physical buying in Asia has helped the spot price of gold rally and remain above $550 a troy ounce on Monday, traders said.

snip>

If prices hold above the $550/oz level, gold could breach the next resistance level of $560/oz in the short term, London-based Barclays analyst Yingxi Yu wrote.

With market conditions remaining nervous after the price volatility over the past few weeks and also a lack of main factors to drive the market, gold could continue fluctuating between $535/oz and $560/oz wide band Yu said, while a trader in Johannesburg said he anticipated gold at a temporary base of $537/oz to $540/oz on the downside.

snip>

"The worst is behind us," TheBullionDesk.com director Ross Moore said, alluding to the huge sell off earlier this month which saw the gold price falling to a five-week low.

"The market is looking pretty robust especially without the Americans. Good buying is underpinning the robustness and it comes mainly from Asia and other markets that are main consumers of gold," Moore added.

The US bullion market is closed on Monday due to a public holiday.

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