From the Far East, a lesson in how to beat bird flu

[Synnical]

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/asia/article346511.ece

20 February 2006

As avian flu advances across Europe towards the UK, public health experts in the Far East claimed the first significant victory against the H5N1 virus since the current outbreak began two years ago.

Vietnam, the worst affected country in the world with 93 human cases and 42 deaths, has become the first to successfully contain the disease that threatens to become a global human pandemic, according to the World Health Organisation.

No new cases of avian flu have been reported in humans in Vietnam since last November and in birds since last December, Hans Troedsson, director of the WHO in Hanoi said.

<snip>


"It is not inevitable that it has to be H5N1. I am cautiously optimistic - more than I was two years ago - that won't be caused by H5N1 because countries like Hong Kong, Vietnam and Thailand have been able to contain it." But Dr Troedsson warned that the H5N1 virus was almost certainly still in Vietnam, and vigilance was essential. Ducks can carry the virus without showing symptoms and previous research has demonstrated it can persist in the soil and water. Monitoring had " improved greatly" over the past two years as a result of action taken by the Vietnamese government but co-ordination between the ministries of health and agriculture had still to be improved, he said

Hat tip to DoYouEverWonder

[salvorhardin]

1. That's marvelous news!

It looks like with good old fashioned public health measures the spread of the virus can be halted. This is important.

Dr Troedsson said that a combination of vaccination, culling and public communication had proved the disease could be halted, even in a less developed country such as Vietnam.

Almost 200 million birds have been vaccinated, and up to five million culled. The Government ordered last year that all chicken prepared for sale must be certified safe and carry an official stamp, although unstamped chicken and duck were still being sold in Hanoi last week.

Dr Troedsson said: "If you had asked me six months ago I would have said we were certain to see new cases of avian flu from December to March in Vietnam which is the cold season when we know flu viruses circulate. Also it was the Tet holiday last month when millions of people return to their families, and chicken is eaten and we feared an outbreak."

[Media_Lies_Daily]

4. They're "halting" the Asian Flu variant that transmits from.....

...bird to bird, and from birds to humans, not the variant that will eventually evolve that will be capable of easily passing from human-to-human. Once Asian Flu evolves into that form, there will be as much chance of stopping the spread of that variant as there is in halting the spread of ordinary flu.

The incubation period for ordinary human influenza is in the range of 5-10 days. During that time, the infected person is contagious without exhibiting outward symptoms.

Two questions:

1. How far can an infected person travel in 5-10 days?

2. How many people will that person infect within that 5-10 day window of time?

[drm604]

7. Yes but

if you lessen the spread of the current strain then you decrease the chances that that mutation will occur. It's definitely a strategy worth pursuing.

[SaveElmer]

9. You are missing the point I think...

The key to preventing a mutation, which is no means assured, is to prevent contact between the current form and humans.

[murray hill farm]

10. Anything that slows it down is good news, but i doubt

it can be held off forever..and no one anywhere is prepared to deal with the situation if or when it does mutate to human to human. If or when that happens, it will spread around the world rapidly, dispite travel restrictions,since it will take most likely five days of incubation in the carrier before symptoms show. Basically, if that happens, you will be on your own...and a simple, very simple thing that you can do if it occurs, is to not leave your house for two or three months..until it runs it course....easy for me to do, of course, i am retired and live alone...but if it did happen to become a pandemic, i think it would be best to keep your children home..out of schools..and do not leave yourself to go to work or to stores..all things considered. So, what i have done is to buy enough canned goods and have stocked them in my house now to survive that amount of time..also, bottled water...and, well if it doesnt happen, i will still use the food before its expiration date..and replace it then. It is a simple thing to do, but it does need to be done in advance.

[SaveElmer]

11. It isn't quite that simple...

If it mutates...and that is still a big if...in order to spread effectively among a population much less densely packed than with birds, the virus will have to lessen in virulence in order to maintain itself. Of course if you are a creationist you don't believe in such nonsense. But natural selection almost guarantees that this will take place. No one knows how deadly the ultimate virus may be. SOme scientists predict it will be no worse, or only somewhat worse than the yearly variety.

In any case, with a process that by definition relies on a random process (mutation and natural selection), any concrete guesses as to its actually final form are not possible.

[murray hill farm]

12. Yes, of course...

and less virulent is much preferable..ha, but it doesnt hurt to take this simple precautionary preparation..and it is not like the stored canned goods will go to waste...it is the precaution that is simple.

[CAcyclist]

17. The things to do now to prepare yourself:

Practice washing your hands frequently.

Keep your hands away from your face.

Don't put things in your mouth to chew on or hold - pens, pencils, etc. Don't chew on your fingernails.

Wipe down/clean surfaces frequently like doorpulls, telephones,etc.

If you are sick, stay home. If you are the boss and your employees are sick, make them stay home. Get used to working with fewer people temporarily or line up temp help you can rely on.


Merely staying inside for a few days is not necessarily going to help you in the event of a pandemic.

[roguevalley]

2. cabbage has an ingredient that helps sick people. Kim chi is a

cure they use. more research is needed. Honest. I watched a news report on the BBC or some place reliable.

[Baconfoot]

3. "Cabbage helps sick people" "Honest" "I saw it on TV" ? NT

[roguevalley]

18. no. Scientists were talking about potential lines of research for

bird flu and one of them noted that people who eat a lot of cabbage, particularly kim chi were able to recover. your sarcasm is sad to me.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

5. I'd say that a LOT more research is needed.

[CanSocDem]

13. Depending in which direction....

....the research goes.

One interesting, but neglected, area of study is the effect of 'beliefs' on the spread of disease. One thing for sure about bird flu is that 'the fear of it' is already at the pandemic stage. This can't be good.......unless of course there is an ulterior motive.

You've already seen the absurdity of the color-alert system so you should be suspicious......

Don't be fooled into thinking that you have no control of your own health. What I hear increasingly from reports about "bird flu" is simply hyperbole designed to ratchet up the 'fear'. If you think you have no control over your own health you will be susceptible to medical marketing, which in the USA amounts to pharmaceutical remedies.

I suspect the culmination of fear-mongering will be when one or another of the pharma company's, solidifies their right to market a "cure-all" pill that will ward off bird flu and make some shareholders very rich.

The first step of creating a public health system is to get rid of all the scams in the market system.

[WhiteTara]

19. are you asking about Tamiflu and Rummy?

He is on the board of Genetech, the patent holder of Tamiflu, the supposed cure all that governments are stocking up on, in the event of the pandemic.

[rodeodance]

6. yes, good news.

[SaveElmer]

8. K&R...

WOuld be nice if the media would show a little balance.

[Javaman]

14. Here's my solution....

stop kissing birds.

Until this virus goes human to human, this is all bullshit.

So wow, who would have thunk it? killing the flocks and vaccinating birds...damn, you got me on that one.

How about this one? suppose, just suppose that the Vietnamese stop using NIGHT SOIL!!!!

Or perhaps they should stop allowing their chickens to eat the droppings from PIGS!!!

Folks, until someone that lives in the middle of a big city and their closest contact with a chicken is at the supermarket freezer, comes down with this "bird" flu, I'm not going to worry. It's a concern but I'm not about to start running around as if the sky is falling.

all, ALL, of the cases reported so far have been in rural or conditions were people had close contact with live fowl and/or chickens.

[Synnical]

20. Thank you

for posting sane comments. I agree wholeheartedly with your comments.

-Cindy in Fort Lauderdale

[graywarrior]

15. Duct tape the little bastards

[MadMaddie]

16. That's funny....

:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: