STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 23 February

[ozymandius]

Thursday February 23, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 1061 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 1890 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1590 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1551
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 22, 2006

Dow... 11,137.17 +68.11 (+0.62%)
Nasdaq... 2,283.17 +20.21 (+0.89%)
S&P 500... 1,292.67 +9.64 (+0.75%)
30-Year Bond 4.48% -0.04 (-0.95%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.53% -0.03 (-0.70%)
Gold future... 556.60 +2.00 (+0.36%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Dollars and Loonie


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Chris Puplava

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX AND FALLING CRUDE OIL PROPEL DOW TO 4 1/2 YEAR HIGH

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January was released today furthering concerns over more rate hikes ahead as the CPI rose 0.7% from December, higher than the 0.5% analyst consensus. However, the CPI less food and energy was 0.2%, in line with the 0.2% analyst consensus.

-cut-

While reviewing the individual components of the CPI, the increase was largely due to a 5.0% spike in energy prices. This is not surprising as crude oil rose from near $60 a barrel at the beginning of the year to nearly reaching its October high of $70 a barrel. Gasoline prices showed the biggest increase within the overall energy category, up 6.4% with the year-on-year gain at 27.4%. But the Bureau of Labor Statistics said gasoline prices so far in February are lower and are not likely to show an increase in next month’s data release, though still high on a year-on-year basis. Electricity prices also spiked, up 5.5%, which was the largest one-month rise in 54 years of record keeping! This resulted to a large extent from utilities “passing through” higher fuel prices to consumers.

-cut-

The CPI data is not encouraging as energy costs indeed appear to be passing through into the core CPI. Although the CPI had fallen for two consecutive months due to falling energy prices post Katrina and Rita, January’s CPI reflected the increase in crude over the month which has since corrected. Oil is continuing its decline after a brief rally, falling $1.59 per barrel to close at $61.01. The question remains how much farther oil will fall in the face of recent events in Nigeria, and the release of the Wall Street Journal article on February 9th that reported Mexico’s biggest oil field, Cantarell, that may go into decline this year.

more...

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[EuroObserver]

2. Tokyo: Nikkei +1.99%, Topix +1.93% on domestic data, portfolio shuffling

Nikkei rises helped by economic data; Sony shines
TOKYO (Reuters) - The Nikkei average rose 1.99 percent to end above 16,000 for the first time in a week on Thursday, as investors encouraged by strong economic data bought Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and other companies that rely on domestic demand.

Sony Corp. led the gains after it unveiled a plan to scrap adviser positions as part of its restructuring, while Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. ended up 2.7 percent at 2,495 yen.
...

"There has been no change in the outlook for economic fundamentals, and that was proved in the latest corporate earnings (report season)," said Susumu Abe, a manager in the information and investment department at Mito Securities Co.

The Nikkei ended up 314.32 points at 16,096.10, closing above 16,000 for the first time since February 16. The broader TOPIX index finished up 1.93 percent at 1,640.47, after climbing more than 2 percent at one point.

Still, Takashi Kamiya, chief economist at T & D Asset Management, said the stock market may stay in the current range for a while, until it gets confirmation on further economic expansion. "The market is already at a fair value and the economy has to growth further for the market to rise," he said. "What fund managers are doing right now is shuffling their portfolios -- switchings sectors, selling outperforming ones and scooping up laggards." ...more...

[ozymandius]

8. FTSE falls as Reuters disappoints

London equities fell in opening trade on Thursday, underperforming other European markets as investors reacted cautiously to earnings news from a raft of major companies.

-cut-

Overnight in New York , Wall Street indices made gains as concern at the liklihood of rising interest rates in the world's biggest economy eased after relatively tame core inflation data.

Back in London, and traders had a busy morning sifiting through important corporate newsflow from a number of FTSE 100 constituents.

Reuters, the global news agency and financial data provider fell sharply as it reported annual revenue and profit in line with expectations, but provided little forward momentum to support a strong rally since its last announcement in October.

more...

[EuroObserver]

10. Japan trade deficit highest in close to 25 years

Japan recorded its biggest trade shortfall in nearly a quarter of a century and its first in five years, as the normal January slowdown in exports and a rising oil bill combined to reverse a Y914bn surplus in December into a Y349bn deficit.

The deficit compared with a surplus of Y194bn a year ago.

Economists said the latest number was no cause for concern since exports normally fell in January because of the long new year’s holiday in Japan, which caused a slowdown in production and shipments. Higher imports partly reflected rising domestic demand, as well as the surge in oil prices, they said.

Richard Jerram, economist at Macquarie Securities, said that, in seasonally adjusted terms, there had been unbroken surpluses since 1980. Hiroshi Shiraishi, economist at Lehman Brothers, said as domestic demand picked up, it was natural that the economy would become less dependent on exports. “Going forward, we don’t expect net exports to provide a big boost to gross domestic product,” he said.

In the fourth quarter of last year, which showed annualised GDP growth of 5.5 per cent in real terms, domestic demand outpaced net exports as a contributing factor, underlying the self-sustaining nature of Japan’s recovery. Mr Shiraishi said the volume of imports had picked up 7 per cent in January as Japanese demand for foreign products increased. In yen terms, imports rose 27 per cent to Y5,360bn, spurred by a 67 per cent rise in the oil bill over the previous January.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

11. Yen rises vs dollar, euro after Fukui

TOKYO, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The yen rose on Thursday after the Bank of Japan governor reiterated the central bank would eventually raise interest rates, reigniting worries that the dollar's yield advantage will erode this year.

Toshihiko Fukui told the Japanese parliament that the BOJ would keep extremely low interest rates after ending its policy of flooding the financial system with cash, but then start moving to neutral rate levels.

"It seems (Fukui) intended to remind the market that something would happen after an end to the quantitative easing policy," said Daisuke Uno, market strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.

Traders said that market players had seized on Fukui's comments -- taken as his strongest warning yet that Japanese rates will have to rise from near zero -- to sell the dollar after the U.S. currency shuffled in a tight range below 119 yen this week.

By 0655 GMT, the dollar was buying 117.50 yen, down more than a yen from the day's high of 118.55 yen marked on electronic trading platform EBS.

Traders said the dollar's fall against the yen was accelerated as stop-loss sell orders were struck on the U.S. currency's way down.

The euro fell nearly 1 percent to 139.95 yen <EURJPY=>.

...more...

Yen rises after Fukui, Europe awaits Ifo
LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The yen rose one percent against the dollar and euro on Thursday, after the Bank of Japan's governor reiterated the central bank would eventually raise interest rates, denting the dollar's yield advantage. In Europe, investors awaited the German Ifo institute's index for the latest reading of German business sentiment.

Toshihiko Fukui told the Japanese parliament the BOJ would keep extremely low interest rates after ending its policy of flooding the financial system with cash, but then start moving to neutral rate levels.

Analysts said market players had used Fukui's comments to bolster the yen amid jitters over carry trades, demonstrated via sharp falls in the New Zealand dollar <NZD=> and Icelandic crown <ISK=> <EURISK=> this week. "Fukui has said nothing new, he has pretty much repeated what the market already knows and hasn't changed the timing of a shift on quantitative easing," Derek Halpenny, currency economist at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi, said. "To me this is market nervousness over carry trades ... obviously with the yen as the favoured funding currency, it's coming back on the back of the unwind of these positions," he added.

In carry trades, investors borrow in low yielding currencies, like the yen, to invest in high-yielding assets.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

12. China shares close 0.36 pct higher on bank stocks

SHANGHAI, Feb 23 (Reuters) - China's shares edged up 0.36 percent on Thursday as a late buying spree in bank stocks such as Minsheng Banking Corp. (600016.SS: Quote, Profile, Research) gave the market a boost. The benchmark Shanghai composite index <.SSEC> finished at 1,288.847 points, reversing a 0.21 percent fall in the morning caused by profit-taking in steel issues such as Baoshan Iron and Steel Co. Ltd. (Baosteel) after gains earlier this week. The index has risen 17.3 percent since Dec. 1, buoyed by technical buying after a four-year market slump.

"Volatile trade has indicated pressure for the index to break through the 1,300-point resistance level," said analyst Xu Yinhui at Guotai Junan Securities. "The market may consolidate its gains in the short term." But analysts said the market's medium-term prospects remained healthy partly due to a series of official reforms, such as the opening of more financing channels for brokerages.

Minsheng, China's largest private bank, closed up 3.67 percent to 5.09 yuan to become Thursday's most active stock, while smaller rival Huaxia Bank Co. Ltd. (600015.SS: Quote, Profile, Research) jumped 4.63 percent to 5.88 yuan. Bank stocks, buoyed by a slew of official steps to reform and improve the health of the sector, have outperformed the recent market rally. Minsheng has jumped 32 percent since Dec. 1 and Huaxia has climbed 35 percent. ...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Initial Claims 02/18
Briefing Forecast 285K
Market Expects NA
Prior 297K

10:00 AM Help-Wanted Index Jan
Briefing Forecast 40
Market Expects 40
Prior 39

[UpInArms]

15. Initial Claims @ 278,000 - last wk rev'd up 1K

U.S. 4-week avg. continuing claims fall to 5-year low
8:30 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

U.S. 4-week avg. continuing claims fall 20,000 to 2.5mln
8:30 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

U.S. continuing jobless claims up 41,000 to 2.5mln
8:30 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

U.S. 4-week avg. initial claims fall 1,500 to 281,750
8:30 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

U.S. weekly initial jobless claims fall 20,000 to 278,000
8:30 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

[UpInArms]

25. Help Wanted Index falls to 37

Labor market not improving, Conference Board says
10:00 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

U.S. Jan. help-wanted index falls to 37 vs. 38
10:00 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

(obviously, they revised last month's number down :eyes: )

[UpInArms]

35. DOE Petroleum Inventory Report (delayed from yesterday)

U.S. natural-gas supply down 123 bln cubic ft: Energy Dept
10:32 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

U.S. crude supply up 1.1 mln brls last wk: Energy Dept
10:31 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

U.S. gasoline supply up 100,000 brls: Energy Dept
10:31 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

U.S. distillate supply down 1.3 mln brls: Energy Dept
10:31 AM ET Feb. 23, 2006 -

[UpInArms]

37. Chicago Fed national activity index lower in Jan

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-02-23T150055Z_01_NYJ000017_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-CHICAGO-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of
Chicago on Thursday said its gauge of the national economy fell
in January, mainly owing to a fall in production-related
indicators and an upward revision to December's reading.

The Chicago Fed said its National Activity Index slipped to
+0.27 in January from an upwardly revised +0.37 in December,
initially reported as +0.08.

The three-month moving average of the index also eased back
a bit in January, to +0.52 from an upwardly revised +0.76 (from
+0.55) in December.

Any reading above zero for the three-month average suggests
economic growth is above its historical trend. The index has
been above zero for much of the past 2-1/2 years, but dipped to
minus 0.20 in September in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

...more...

[UpInArms]

49. KC Fed manufacturing index 9 in Feb vs 21 in Jan

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-02-23T160653Z_01_WAT004937_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-KANSASCITY.XML

Feb 23 (Reuters) - Details of the Federal Reserve Bank of
Kansas City's monthly manufacturing index, released on
Thursday.

Following are the survey results:

Expected

MANUFACTURING SURVEY       Feb     Jan    (Prev)    6 mos.
 Production                  9      21      21       47
 Shipments                  -4      16      16       51
 New Orders                 10      19      19       41
 Backlog Orders             13       9       9       17
 Number of employees        15      14      14       14
 Average workweek            1       6       6       17
 Finished product prices    17      19      19       29
 Raw product prices         38      36      36       55
 Capital expenditures      N/A     N/A     N/A       17
 Inventory-materials        14      13      13       16
 Inventory-finished goods   17      17      17       12

...more...

[EuroObserver]

4. Europe: optimistic pending utilities, sentiment measures. Brits slip.

CAC 40 opens up 0.1% at 5,047.1 in Paris 09:10 CET
Xetra Dax 30 opens up 0.1% at 5,864.7 in Frankfurt 09:09 CET
FTSE 100 opens down 0.1% at 5,865.7 in London 08:08 GMT


Bourses higher as utilities shine
European equity markets made a positive start to trading on Thursday on a busy day for corporate earnings with attention focused on continued takeover speculation and results in the utilities sector. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 1.6 points or 0.1 per cent to 1,359.75 while the German Dax added just 2 points, almost flat at 5,863.3 and the French CAC 40 gained 10.8 points or 0.2 per cent at 5,053.2. In London, the FTSE 100 fell 13.5 points or 0.2 per cent at 5,858.9. RWE of Germany reported a 4.4 per cent increase in net profits to €2,230m last year, slightly above the consensus market forecast, and said it expected further growth in earnings this year. RWE eased 0.6 per cent to €74.13. ...source...

FTSE 100 slips as Reuters, BAE Systems fall
LONDON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Britain's top shares fell on Thursday, with global news and information provider Reuters Group (RTR.L: Quote, Profile, Research) the top faller after its outlook disappointed investors, while BAE Systems (BA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) slipped after reporting a higher-than-expected pensions deficit, dealers said. Shares in Reuters Group fell as much as 8 percent to 412 pence in early trade before recovering some of its losses to change hands at 424 pence -- a drop of 6 percent.
...

By 0830 GMT the FTSE 100 share index (RTR.L: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 3.5 points at 5,868.9, wiping out much of Wednesday's late gain.

Defence company BAE Systems was another top faller, dropping 2 percent due to a bigger-than-expected pension deficit and despite results meeting expectations. "The size of the pension was a knock but cash flow was extremely strong for a second year running," said JP Morgan analyst Harry Breach in a note.

But in contrast, shares in Capita (CPI.L: Quote, Profile, Research) topped the list of FTSE 100 risers, adding 3.1 percent after the outsourcing firm posted a near-20 percent rise in full-year profit. ...more...

European stocks - Factors to watch on Feb 23
LONDON/PARIS, Feb 23 (Reuters) - European shares were set to open flat to lower on Thursday as investors braced for a deluge of earnings from top European companies, while the yen rallied across the board as expectations of rising Japanese interest rates firmed.

U.S. light crude oil prices dipped below $61 a barrel ahead of U.S. inventories data later in the day which is forecast to show a build in already healthy supplies. The lower oil price also weighed on gold.

Gains in U.S. and Asian stocks overnight were tainted by results from U.S. media giant Viacom (VIAb.N: Quote, Profile, Research) which fell 68 percent and missed market forecasts.

Utilities remain in the spotlight in Europe, with investors watching for developments in E.ON's (EONG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) bid for Spain's Endesa and studying earnings from France's EDF (EDF.PA: Quote, Profile, Research), UK's Centrica (CNA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) and Germany's RWE (RWEG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research). Overnight, EDF said its net profit doubled in 2005, beating expectations.

Germany's Ifo business confidence survey is the top event on Europe's economic calendar, with economists expecting sentiment to hold near a 5-1/2 year high. ...more factors, detail...

[EuroObserver]

5. Endesa says market agrees E.ON bid not enough

MADRID (Reuters) - Endesa Chairman Manuel Pizarro said on Thursday that the market's reaction to E.ON's 29-billion-euro ($34.5-billion) bid for his company supports his view that the German company's bid is insufficient.
...

E.ON has bid 27.50 euros per share in cash for Endesa whose shares stood at 28.04 at 0950 GMT, about 2 percent above the offer price. E.ON shares were 0.06 percent lower at 96.04 euros while Gas Natural firmed 0.3 percent to 24.34 euros.

E.ON was faced with the possibility of yet more rivals after France's EDF added its interest in Spain to that already expressed by Italy's Enel . The German company E.ON trumped a bid for Endesa from Gas Natural which is currently worth 22.4 billion euros.

The Gas bid is due to be considered by the CNMV stock market regulator on Thursday and its routine approval would start the offer process which is expected to last 45 days and begin with the publication of an offer document.
...

Newspapers also said the government was attempting to broker a deal that would keep Spain's energy industry in Spanish hands despite its espousal of free financial markets. On Wednesday Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said he would not go as far as using the government's "golden share" in Endesa to block E.ON's bid but again repeated that Spain also wanted to have a strong international energy player. The European Commission told Spain that it must not block the E.ON bid.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

7. Italy mulls need for tough takeover laws

(FT) The threat of creeping protectionism across Europe deepened on Wednesday when Italy raised the prospect of toughening Italian takeover laws in retaliation against France’s efforts to deter foreign bidders from acquiring French companies.

Giulio Tremonti, finance minister, said Italy was among the most “market-oriented” countries in the European Union and disliked protectionism, but it could not ignore France’s firm line on hostile takeover bids.

In a move that has rattled the European Commission, the French government is proposing to let companies use “poison pill” defences to thwart hostile bidders.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

9. Utilities spark European gains

(FT) European equity markets extended their initial gains by mid-morning on Thursday on a busy day for corporate earnings with attention focused on continued takeover speculation and results in the utilities sector.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 rose 3 points or 0.2 per cent to 1,361.38 while after a sluggish start, the German Dax added 15.2 points or 0.3 per cent to 5,877.45 and the French CAC 40 gained 13.2 points or 0.3 per cent at 5,054.85.

After an intial rise of 6.9 per cent to €34.10, the French utility Suez traded 2.3 per cent higher at €32.63 as bid speculation continued to boost the utilities sector. Market rumours on Wednesday suggested Suez could be a target for the Italian utility Enel, 1.1 per cent stronger at €7.26.

The bid speculation was fuelled further by comments from EDF which signalled its willingness to play a part in sector consolidation after it said it had a war chest of €8bn to spend this year. EDF also announced a doubling of net profits to €3,242m last year from a restated €1,607m in 2004, above the consensus market forecast of €2,850m. EDF rose 3.2 per cent to €43.15. ...more...

[EuroObserver]

13. EDF eyes European takeovers as profits double

EDF (Electricité de France) on Thursday said net income had doubled during 2005 as Europe’s largest publicly-quoted utility said it was looking for further acquisitions to increase its foothold across the continent. Shares in the company made gains of 1.9 per cent to €42.63 in morning trade in Paris. The group, which was floated by the French government in November, said net income rose to €3.24bn in 2005, compared with €1.6bn during the previous year, as the company benefited from higher electricity prices across the continent. EDF had set itself a target of at least €2.6bn. The sharp rise in net income was partly related to the fact that EDF had taken an exceptional charge of €1.9bn in 2004, linked to its Italian and Latin American assets.
...little more...

[EuroObserver]

31. BAE's profit up on defence (shares down)

LONDON (Reuters) - BAE Systems (BA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) posted a 16 percent rise in operating profit as expected due to a strong Airbus commercial plane business and UK defence contracts, but its shares fell on concern about its pension deficit.

Europe's largest defence firm flagged an improved performance in 2006 from all its businesses on Thursday but said it would make a one-off 350 million pound contribution to its pension programme in the year. "The size of the pension was a knock, but cash flow was extremely strong for a second year running," JP Morgan analyst Harry Breach said.

Earnings before interest, taxes and amortisation (EBITA) rose to 1.182 billion pounds for 2005 from 1.016 billion a year ago. Analysts had on average forecast almost 1.2 billion pounds, according to a Reuters poll.

BAE said the result was buoyed by U.K. defence contracts, particularly for the Eurofighter Typhoon combat jet, and record highs for Airbus commercial jet deliveries.

Chief Executive Mike Turner flagged an improved 2006 in the defence business, which will reap a full year of income from its $1.1 billion (627 million pounds) acquisition of U.S. firm United Defence Industries Inc last year.

Turner said BAE, which has been actively building up its U.S. operations in recent years, would pursue more U.S. acquisitions.
...

BAE System shares, which were trading at 5-1/2 year highs last week, were down 1.6 percent at 438-3/4 pence at 0908 GMT.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

32. European shares down on rate worries after firm Ifo

FRANKFURT, Feb 23 (Reuters) - European shares edged lower on Thursday after a surprise jump in German business sentiment fuelled worries of further European Central Bank rate hikes, prompting investors to cash in gains as shares trade near 4-1/2 year highs.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of leading European shares <.FTEU3> shed early gains to trade down 0.2 percent at 1,355.60 points by 1150 GMT.

Across Europe, Frankfurt's DAX <.GDAXI> and France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> were 0.1 percent lower each, while Britain's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> dipped 0.4 percent.

"The Ifo index lifted markets briefly before investors realised that the European Central Bank might now raise interest rates not just in March but also later," said Guenter Senftleben, a strategist at Bankgesellschaft Berlin.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

34. German economic confidence rises

(BBC) German business confidence has risen to its highest level in more than 14 years, a much-watched survey has found. With sentiment rising across both manufacturing and service, the study by research institute Ifo has now seen increases for three months in a row. Its February finding came as a separate poll by fellow research firm GfK found that German consumer confidence was also rising, in what is World Cup year.

The ongoing German economic recovery is expected to quicken in 2006.
...

Ifo's monthly business confidence index of 7,000 firms rose to 103.3 in February, from an upward revised 101.8 in January, beating market expectations.
...

The index, which is calculated from the balance of positive and negative feedback, is now at its highest level since October 1991.

GfK's study found that German households were becoming more confident that the economy was continuing to pick up and that their personal financial situations would improve. "Despite the still tight situation on the labour market, stagnant retail sales during the Christmas period and stubbornly high energy prices, consumer sentiment remained largely stable in February," said GfK.

Analysts said that the two surveys could give the European Central Bank greater scope for raising eurozone interest rates in coming months. "It is not just economic spring returning to the German recovery, but it looks like full-blown summer has arrived for German business confidence," said economist David Brown of Bear Stearns.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

46. Bonds ease as German sentiment hits high

(FT) Bond prices in Europe came under pressure on Thursday after a closely watched business sentiment survey from Germany came in at a 14-year high. The latest sign of a robust economic outlook for the eurozone bolstered current expectations of an interest rate hike by the European Central Bank in March.
...

Madeleine de Villiers, international economist at Capital Economics, said: “Overall, then, the survey provides strong support for our view that gross domestic product growth in both Germany and the euro-zone as a whole is likely to surprise on the upside this year.”

...more...

[EuroObserver]

62. ...closed flat to negative...

Swiss SMI down -0.71% at 7983.75
Xetra Dax 30 closes down 0.1% at 5,857.88
CAC 40 closes flat at 5,040.39
FTSE 100 closes down 0.6% at 5,836.0
FTSE 250 closes down 0.1% at 9,467.1

[ozymandius]

6. Oil Prices Dip on Supply Expectations

LONDON - Crude-oil prices slipped Thursday as expectations of higher U.S. oil inventories calmed a market that has been rattled by supply disruptions in Nigeria and Ecuador and by worries over Iran's nuclear program.

-cut-

Nymex gasoline futures rose less than half a cent to $1.4789 per gallon, while heating oil futures were little changed at $1.6513 a gallon. Natural gas futures stayed even at $7.292 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Prices fell amid expectations that weekly U.S. oil inventory data, to be released Thursday, will show crude and gasoline stocks grew but distillates fell. The report was to be released a day later than usual because of the Presidents Day holiday in the U.S. this week.

But some analysts said the concerns about Iran and militant attacks in Nigeria would continue to support prices. Nigeria is Africa's leading oil exporter and the United States' fifth-largest supplier, usually exporting 2.5 million barrels daily.

more...

[UpInArms]

14. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX

Last trade 90.17 Change -0.35 (-0.39%)

US dollar softer vs yen in Tokyo on speculative selling

http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/02/22/afx2546980.html

TOKYO (AFX) - The US dollar was weaker against the yen, hit by selling by speculative investors after it failed to break the 119 yen resistance in overnight trading, dealers said.

The dollar rose to 118.88 yen in offshore trading overnight but failed to advance further following the release of benign US consumer price data.

'Despite expectations for a further widening of the interest rate gap between Japan and the US, the dollar failed to break through the 119 yen level again overnight despite the CPI report that supported the case for further rate hikes in the US,' Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ forex analyst Masashi Hashimoto said.

'Because the market has fully priced in the likely rate hike at the March FOMC meeting and has also discounted the possible rate increase at the May meeting to a large extent, the market, which has huge short positions on the yen, is more inclined to adjust those positions,' he added.

The US consumer price index rose 0.7 pct in January, above market expectations of a 0.5 pct increase.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Revaluation and Policy Shift, Yen Climbs

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_financial_markets_headlines/dailyfx_financial_markets_headlines/6919_revaluation_and_policy_shift_yen.html

The Yen appreciated this morning after Japan’s Ministry of Finance stated that the country’s reserve and currency intervention policies will not be linked to the revaluation of the Chinese Yuan. China has been under increased pressure to revalue its currency, and the MoF’s comments suggest that there may be an imminent change in its price. In addition, BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui hinted that the central bank may take policy changing action sooner than expected depending on the consumer price index data being released March 3rd. Consumer prices, excluding fresh food, gained 0.1% in November and December, which were the first consecutive gains in over seven years. A third gain may assure the BoJ that economic growth in Japan is stable, allowing the central bank to reduce the amount of yen available in the banking system. The combination of comments led traders to exit their positions and buyback the Yen. The USD/JPY traded down to 117.54 at 7:08 GMT.

Strong performances among both domestic and export-focused stocks pushed up the Tokyo market on Thursday morning. The Nikkei 225 finished the morning 1% higher at 15,937.49. The Topix rose 1.3% to 1,630.05. Strong December figures for the tertiary sector and the index for industry activities boost investors’ confidence in domestic stocks before the market opened. Banking rose 2.4 percent, with real estate up 1.2%. Mitsubishi UFJ, the world’s biggest bank by assets, jumped 3.1% to Y1,640,000. Mitsui Fudosan rose 2% to Y2,335. Weak overnight inflation figures from the US also boosted export stocks, by suggesting that demand can rise further in an important export market without forcing interest rates higher. The electrical machinery sector rose 1.6%. Matsushita, the world’s biggest maker of electronic consumer goods under the Panasonic name, gained 2.1% to Y2,480. Sony, the electronics and entertainment giant, jumped 2.7% to Y5,620 after saying it was axing a large number of adviser positions – conventionally given to senior executives when they retire.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Yen surges after BoJ governor signals policy shift

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BB57152D6%2D2360%2D4E5E%2DAD52%2D1D01E8FB6241%7D&siteid=mktw&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The yen rose sharply across the board Thursday, striking a one-month high versus the dollar, after Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui indicated that the end of quantitative ultra-easing policy is near.

Meanwhile, the euro climbed against the dollar after the closely watched Ifo business climate indicator for Germany topped consensus forecasts.

The U.S. currency continued lower, drawing little support from the latest weekly jobless claims report, which showed unexpected strength in the labor market.

In early trade, the dollar changed hands at 117.02 yen, down 1.1% from late Wednesday. The dollar had touched 116.74 yen earlier in the session, the lowest level since January 26.

The euro was last trading at $1.1947, up 0.3% from late Wednesday.

BoJ signals policy shift

The yen rallied overnight after BoJ government Fukui dropped one of his clearest hints that the central bank is approaching the end of its 5-year-old ultra easing monetary policy.

Traders bid the yen higher, interpreting Fukui's comments before the government's Committee on Financial Affairs as a signal the central bank may soon tighten monetary conditions and boost interest rates.

...more one sentence paragraphs...

[EuroObserver]

48. So, soon we'll be able to sell Japan stocks

... and deposit the resulting Yen somewhere they actually earn some interest!

[EuroObserver]

54. Yen pares gains, traders cite Fukui clarification

http://today.reuters.co.uk/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=usDollarRpt&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060223:MTFH29336_2006-02-23_16-07-50_N23279178:1
NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The yen trimmed its steep gains on Thursday, as U.S.-based traders cited a Dow Jones report in which the Bank of Japan's governor clarified his earlier remarks. The yen had rallied sharply as markets took those remarks to signal an impending shift in Japan's monetary policy.

BoJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui, who had spoken in Japanese, said he did not mean to stress earlier that the central bank would end its current ultra-easy monetary policy "immediately," Dow Jones reported. "There's something out of Dow Jones that sort of mitigated the comments of Fukui overnight. That created a bounce in dollar/yen," said Grant Wilson, vice president of foreign exchange at Mellon Bank in Pittsburgh.

Midmorning in New York, the dollar trimmed some earlier losses, moving up to 117.35 yen <JPY=>, from below 117.0 yen, but down 1 percent from late on Wednesday.

Currency investors had initially interpreted Fukui's remarks in parliament as hinting that Japan would soon raise rates from near-zero levels. As a result, traders said, the yen had surged higher against the euro and the dollar.

:shrug:

[UpInArms]

17. Fannie Mae: Rudman Report

8:15am 02/23/06 Fannie Mae board chair Ashley: Rudman report 'disturbing' - MarketWatch.com

8:14am 02/23/06 Rudman report cites arrogant corporate culture - MarketWatch.com

8:13am 02/23/06 Rudman: Raines improperly stressed stable earnings growth - MarketWatch.com

8:11am 02/23/06 Rudman: Former CEO Raines did not know accounting errors - MarketWatch.com

8:08am 02/23/06 Rudman report blames former CFO and Controller for problems - MarketWatch.com

8:04am 02/23/06 Rudman report: Fannie Mae bent rules to smooth earnings - MarketWatch.com

8:05am 02/23/06 Rudman report: Fannie Mae's accounting 'grossly inadequate' - MarketWatch.com

8:03am 02/23/06 Rudman report: Fannie Mae board not to blame for conduct - MarketWatch.com

8:02am 02/23/06 Rudman report: Current management not involved in scandal - MarketWatch.com

8:00am 02/23/06 Fannie Mae CEO: Corporate culture was root of past problems - MarketWatch.com

7:57am 02/23/06 Fannie Mae up 4.6% at $58.50 premarket - MarketWatch.com

7:58am 02/23/06 Fannie Mae CEO: One new issue in Rudman report not material - MarketWatch.com

7:56am 02/23/06 Fannie Mae CEO: Rudman report shows principal problems known - MarketWatch.com

7:55am 02/23/06 Fannie Mae CEO: 'Fannie Mae is a different company' - MarketWatch.com

[UpInArms]

18. Report Is Kind to Fannie Mae

http://www.thestreet.com/_mktwrm/markets/marketfeatures/10269981.html?cm_ven=CBSM&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Ousted Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) CEO Franklin Raines was unaware that the mortgage company's accounting practices departed from generally accepted principles, an investigation led by former Sen. Warren Rudman concluded Thursday.

The investigation, conducted over a year at the request of Fannie Mae's board, did find that Raines "contributed to a culture that improperly stressed stable earnings growth and that, as the chairman and CEO of the company from 1999 through 2004, he was ultimately responsible for the failures that occurred on his watch."

Raines left the company in December 2004 as the accounting scandal exploded. The company, which was set up by Congress to create a secondary market in home loans, is in the process of a massive financial restatement that could lop $11 billion off its previously reported earnings.

Rudman's inquiry laid most of the blame for Fannie's accounting malfeasance on the company's former chief financial officer, Timothy Howard, and its former controller, Leanne Spencer. The two "were primarily responsible for adopting or implementing accounting practices that departed from GAAP and that they put undue emphasis on avoiding earnings volatility and meeting EPS expectations and growth targets," the report found.

Overall, the report is kind to Fannie Mae's current management, concluding there has been "a dramatic shift in the 'tone at the top' and the company's internal organization." The report says "no member of management who we found knowingly participated in improper conduct continues to be an employee of the company," and said appropriate changes in corporate governance "either have been implemented or are underway."

...more...

[UpInArms]

50. US Treasury says GSE reform, portfolio cuts needed

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-23T160556Z_01_WAT004933_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FANNIE-TREASURY-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday said a report on Fannie Mae's accounting problems shows corporate governance problems are being repaired, but Congress must still pass a bill forcing cuts to the company's investment portfolio.

"While Senator Rudman's report indicates that a number of the specific accounting violations and corporate governance problems are in the process of repair, the broad systemic risks inherent in the retained portfolio that was at the heart of the process remain unchanged," said Treasury Undersecretary Randal Quarles.

He said Treasury still wants to see a new regulator for Fannie (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and its sibling government-sponsored enterprise Freddie Mac (FRE.N: Quote, Profile, Research), and "a legislative mandate for reduction of the retained portfolios to reduce systemic risk."

The report released earlier on Thursday from former U.S. Sen. Warren Rudman blamed former management for Fannie's $11 billion in accounting errors. It came as Congress weighs legislation to stiffen oversight of Fannie and Freddie.

...more...

[UpInArms]

56. US's Quarles-Fannie portfolio at root of problems

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-23T163650Z_01_WAT004935_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FANNIE-LEGISLATION-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - A report on Fannie Mae's multi-billion dollar accounting scandal shows risks posed by the firm's mortgage portfolio and should boost efforts to strengthen oversight, a U.S. Treasury official said on Thursday.

"The Rudman report does a very good job at laying bare the earnings-at-any-cost culture that had developed over many years at Fannie Mae," Treasury Undersecretary for Domestic Finance Randal Quarles said at a briefing.

Fannie Mae's (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) mortgage portfolio grew to its current size at a time when the company was focused on manipulating earnings rather than its housing mission, Quarles said.

The portfolio should be cut back to reduce risks to the U.S. financial system, he added.

[UpInArms]

19. U.S. Says Fake Dollars Seized by South Korea Were Probably Printed in Nort

http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200602/200602230004.html

U.S. officials say they have concluded that counterfeit dollars seized by South Korean police last year were printed in North Korea. That appears to contradict recent statements by South Korean officials, who have said Seoul has no evidence of North Korean counterfeiting after 1998. South Korean authorities have been reluctant to support U.S. accusations on the sensitive issue.

U.S. officials say that North Korea has recently engaged in counterfeiting - and South Korea has seen evidence of it.

One official at the U.S. Embassy in Seoul says they have shown South Korean authorities notes from a 2001 and 2003 series of $100 bill forgeries. Washington says its investigations have concluded the notes were manufactured in North Korea.

The embassy official, who would not allow his name to be used, says U.S. investigators also determined some notes the South Korean police seized last April were forged in North Korea.

...more...

Can we get tensions in every region to the breaking point? :sarcasm:

[plasticsundance]

20. I have a question about the bonds.

Does anyone else notice the inversion of the 2-year against the ten year as rising?
Is the widening of the inversion significant?

Today, I noticed through Reuters that the 2-year bond was at 4.70 and the 10-year at 4.56.

[ozymandius]

36. simple answer

A rate inversion foreshadows a recession. The mechanics of this are best explained by someone besides me. Julie is a good one to ask about bond issues.

[plasticsundance]

47. The reason I ask ...

is because I heard it suggested that the inversion wasn't great enough for a recession. I suspect the suggestion is more CNBC bladerdash, but I wanted some of the opinions from the experts I read on this topic at DU.

[EuroObserver]

51. That idiot Mogambo said yesterday:

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=2403
-- Thanks to Doug Noland for a quote from Bernanke's first appearance before Congress since he was appointed Fed chairman, where he is dismissing the importance of the inverted yield curve, even though this has ALWAYS signaled a downturn in the economy. "More importantly, in the past, when the inverted yield curve presaged a slowdown in the economy, it was usually in a situation where both long-term and short-term interest rates were actually quite high in real terms, suggesting a good bit of drag on the economy." Huh? Where in the hell did THAT come from?

But he does not answer my question, and instead he goes on to reveal the basic tenet of his whole, idiotic theory of economics, namely that interest rates are the ONLY thing that matter. Hahaha! What a buffoon! He virtually admits it when he says, "With the real interest rate not creating a drag on economic activity, I don’t anticipate that the term structure signals an oncoming slowing of the economy.” Hahaha! And this laughable economic stupidity is the wellspring core belief of the majority of mainstream universities in America today! Debt doesn't matter! Budget deficits don't matter! Trade deficits don't matter! Energy costs don't matter! Housing prices don't matter! The value of the dollar doesn't matter! Only interest rates matter! Hahaha!

So you can rest assured that the Bernanke Fed is going to keep creating excess money and credit, and he will keep flooding the banks with it, and the banks will make more and more loans at cheaper and cheaper rates, creating more and more money as they completely debase the buying power of the dollar.

And speaking of debasing your dollars so that they buy less and less, Gary Tanashian of BiiWii.com enunciates my thinking perfectly when he says, "Therefore, the ongoing debasement of the dollar remains my fundamental reason for being bullish gold. We are in a secular bull market in resources, commodities and hard money. We are in a secular bear market in paper currencies, being led lower by the world's reserve currency, the Federal Reserve Note."

:rofl:

[InsultComicDog]

73. Inversion is a lesser form of deflation

Found a new toy:

http://www.smartmoney.com/onebond/index.cfm?story=yieldcurve

[EuroObserver]

76. Good, thanks. They make it sound so sexy:

"...short-term rates and long-term rates often moving in opposite directions simultaneously. What's important is the overall pattern of interest-rate movement ..."

:9

on edit: the piece says, ok:

Inverted Curve
Date: August 1981
At first glance an inverted yield curve seems like a paradox. Why would long-term investors settle for lower yields while short-term investors take so much less risk?

The answer is that long-term investors will settle for lower yields now if they think rates — and the economy — are going even lower in the future. They're betting that this is their last chance to lock in rates before the bottom falls out.

Our example comes from August 1981. Earlier that year, Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker had begun to lower the federal funds rate to forestall a slowing economy. Recession fears convinced bond traders that this was their last chance to lock in 10% yields for the next few years.

As is usually the case, the collective market instinct was right. Check out the GDP chart above; it aptly demonstrates just how bad things got in 1981 and 1982. Interest rates fell dramatically for the next five years. Thirty year bond yields went from 14% to 7% while short-term rates, starting much higher at 15% fell to 5% or 6%. As for equities, the next year was brutal (see chart below). Long-term investors who bought at 10% definitely had the last laugh.


-- But, who expects USD interest rates to fall so far so soon?

--> Ah, and I do appreciate that reference to "collective market instinct" - sounds even more 'wet' than my usually preferred term: 'psychology' (better than 'sentiment'). In spite of the fact that I received a pretty damned hard-nosed education much more oriented towards the 'sciences' than the 'liberal arts'. And if anyone wants to argue that the species 'homo sapiens' is not animal, in fact part of species ape (hi, brothers and sisters), rather than feline or canine, for example, and capable, once the tv is turned off, of sensing forthcoming 'earthquakes' just like any other natural creature of this Earth (agree with AnneD), I'm available. Though I don't completely dismiss the possibility of extraterrestrial interventions in our collective evolution...

[UpInArms]

21. Consumers pinched by soaring prices

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/0223economy23.html

WASHINGTON - Consumer prices galloped ahead in January at the fastest pace in four months, especially pinching the wallets of motorists and other energy users.

The latest picture of the nation's pricing climate, released by the Labor Department on Wednesday, reinforced expectations that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues will boost interest rates to blunt inflation.

The government's most closely watched inflation barometer, the Consumer Price Index, advanced by 0.7 percent, compared with a 0.1 percent dip in December. The seesaw pattern mostly reflects gyrating energy prices.

"Consumers continue to be battered by rising costs," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisers. "It's tough out there for most households."

Rising inflation is straining families' budgets.

A separate report showed that workers' average weekly earnings, adjusted for inflation, dropped by 0.4 percent in January compared with a year ago. For most workers last year, paychecks didn't keep pace with inflation.

...more...

[AnneD]

24. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: They are assuming they had a paycheck.
Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[EuroObserver]

30. Average American Family Income Declines

The average income of American families, after adjusting for inflation, declined by 2.3 percent in 2004 compared to 2001 while their net worth rose but at a slower pace.

The Federal Reserve reported Thursday that the drop in inflation-adjusted incomes left the average family income at $70,700 in 2004. The median, or point where half the families earned more and half less, did rise slightly in 2004 after adjusting for inflation to $43,200, up 1.6 percent from the 2001 level.

The median, or midpoint for net worth rose by 1.5 percent to $93,100 from 2001 to 2004. That growth was far below the 10.3 percent gain in median net worth from 1998 to 2001, a period when the stock market reached record highs before starting to decline in early 2000.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

77. + DU thread here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2127330

[UpInArms]

22. Treasurys weaken after jobless claims

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0FD811E2%2D9F76%2D4AAF%2D94F9%2D6D339EA5851E%7D&siteid=mktw&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices lost strength Thursday, pushing yields higher, after the latest weekly jobless-claims tally showed unexpected labor-market strength.

Prices were further pressured as investors lightened positions ahead of this afternoon's auction of $14 billion in five-year notes.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was down 7/32 at 99-18/32 with a yield ($TNX) of 4.554%, up from 4.529% in late trade Thursday.

The Labor Department reported that claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 20,000 to 278,000 last week, reversing the prior week's rise. See full story.

The four-week average of new claims -- which smoothes out distortions created by one-time events such as weather -- fell by 1,500 to 281,750, close to the six-year low of 276,750 seen two weeks ago.

Economists caution that the claims data are very volatile early in the year.

The unexpected labor-market strength disappointed fixed-income investors because it reinforces worries that the Federal Reserve may have to keep lifting interest rates to cool off the economy.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Printing Press Report:Fed adds temporary reserves via 14-day repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-23T133909Z_01_N23503593_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday that it was adding temporary reserves to the banking system through 14-day repurchase agreements.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.50 percent, the Fed's current target for the overnight lending rate on loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

38. Printing Press Report: Fed does overnight repos after 14-day repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-23T144029Z_01_N23346129_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday that it was adding temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight repurchase agreements.

Earlier, the Fed executed $12 billion in 14-day repos.

The benchmark fed funds rate last traded at 4.50 percent, the Fed's current target for the overnight lending rate on loans between banks.

Further details of the operations are available at: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

41. US Fed's Ferguson--Low long-term rates puzzling

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-23T152351Z_01_N23221669_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-FED-FERGUSON-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - How a rise in long-term interest rates would affect financial firms would depend on what triggers the increase, U.S. Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson said on Thursday.

Higher rates resulting from stronger investment spending would provide an economic boost and would hence not be a worrisome development, he said in remarks prepared for delivery to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners.

"On the other hand, a sharp increase in risk premia, whether because of a rise in perceived risk or a reduced willingness to bear risk, likely would be more problematic," Ferguson said.

"We simply cannot know before the fact whether a potential rise in longer-term interest rates would be disruptive or not," said the Fed vice chair, who announced on Wednesday he will leave the central bank in April.

One explanation for low long-term interest rates might be an excess of global saving and a drop in volatility associated with economic activity and inflation, Ferguson said. But policy makers do not have a full understanding of forces that have driven rates down, he said.

...more...

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

45. And He's Bailing Off The Ship....

Ferguson is the only one who is probably concerned. The only one who sees 2 potential outcomes to the story. Now King george will appoint a replacement who thinks in the same screwed up, stay in line manner that he does. Ferguson probably feels like he's on an island, spewing talking points which no other Fed member wants to hear, or cares about.

At least when things collapse, he can stand on the side and refer to his comments, and say he had been concerned it was coming. Just a shame we no longer have a voice of reason at the Fed. We're screwed, eh?

[EuroObserver]

53. Yeah. Someone should scoop an in-depth interview with Ferguson n/t

[AnneD]

55. Something is afoot...

I can just feel it. It's like those vibrations or whatever that drives the animals crazy before an earthquake-I feel it but can't pinpoint it. This ship of state is floating but you can feel vibrations under your feet that are beginning to work in synch as they reach a crescendo.

[wordpix]

60. no doubt the "something" has to do with our $8 Trillion in debt...?

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

65. More Like 8.20 TRILLION, and Climbing Somewhat Rapidly nt

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

64. "drives the animals crazy before an earthquake" - AnneD

So I guess that makes us "rational" people the "animals." What does it make the ignorant "public" and MSM who apparently has no idea what's about to come?

[AnneD]

69. I think the port deal...

has opened up a few eyes in the GOP. Dobbs did a show and meantioned Carlyle Group (and Marvin Bush), Snow and his ties, and that guy that was just appointed Sanborne. I mean it was all laid out.

http://www.canofun.com/cof/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=17073

[UpInArms]

75. Looks like that "confidence" thing has evaporated

in a big way -

see my post #74

:scared:

[UpInArms]

43. Printing Press Alert: Fed says adds permanent reserves via coupon pass

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-23T154536Z_01_N23506312_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-COUPONPASS-URGENT-REPEAT.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Thursday it added permanent bank reserves through purchases of U.S. Treasury coupons maturing between May 14, 2014 and May 13, 2030 with some exceptions.

Federal funds last traded at 4.50 percent, the Fed's current target for the rate on overnight loans between banks.

Details are available on the New York Fed's Web site: http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/permanent.html

[UpInArms]

52. Treasury losses mount; auction ahead

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0FD811E2%2D9F76%2D4AAF%2D94F9%2D6D339EA5851E%7D&siteid=mktw&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury price losses mounted Thursday morning, pushing yields higher, as investors lightened positions ahead of this afternoon's auction of 5-year notes.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was down 9/32 at 99-16/32 with a yield ($TNX 45.59, +0.28, +0.6% ) of 4.563%, up from 4.529% in late trade Thursday.

In early trade, Treasurys weakened after the latest weekly jobless-claims tally showed unexpected labor-market strength.

Treasury price weakness was compounded as the morning wore on by some rate-lock trades and hedge-fund selling, according to Kim Rupert, managing director of fixed-income at Action Economics.

Earlier the Labor Department reported that claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 20,000 to 278,000 last week, reversing the prior week's rise. See full story.

The four-week average of new claims -- which smoothes out distortions created by one-time events such as weather -- fell by 1,500 to 281,750, close to the six-year low of 276,750 seen two weeks ago.

Economists caution that the claims data are very volatile early in the year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

74. ALERT!: Treasuries fall as five-year auction deemed a flop

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-23T184703Z_01_N23489801_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, Feb 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices extended losses on Thursday after an auction of five-year notes garnered surprisingly weak demand, including from indirect bidders.

That category includes customers of primary dealers but also foreign central banks, and it is therefore used as a proxy for offshore interest in U.S. government debt.

Already unnerved by a drop in jobless claims that reinforced the likelihood of further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, traders kept bond prices well into negative territory.

"It was a terrible auction," summed up one trader at a U.S. primary dealer. "The bid-to-cover stank, the indirect bid was bad -- I would be surprised if the market manages to rally from here."

Benchmark 10-year Treasury notes <US10YT=RR> retreated 10/32 for a yield of 4.57 percent, up from 4.53 percent on Wednesday.

The new five-year notes were sold at a high-yield of 4.622 percent, and met with bids for only 2.18 times the $14 billion on offer, far below the 2005 average of 2.52.

Worse yet, indirect bidders bought a meager $2.96 billion or 21.1 percent of the deal, compared with last year's average 38.13 percent. That left dealers holding the bag with $10.72 billion or 76.6 percent.

...more...

Ruh-Roh!

[EuroObserver]

78. This is signifcant. Another tipping point?

Japan long bonds were also sniffed at, yesterday. So where is this money going?

[ozymandius]

23. markets giving the bidness

9:50
Dow 11,079.06 -58.11 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,272.97 -10.20 (-0.45%)
S&P 500 1,286.24 -6.43 (-0.50%)
10-Yr Bond 45.53 +0.22 (+0.49%)
NYSE Volume 149,846,000
Nasdaq Volume 177,539,000

09:40 am : Cash market finds little in the way of market moving news items to help extend yesterday's widespread buying efforts. Concern that the market has gotten ahead of itself, especially amid uncertainty as to when the Fed will stop raising interest rates, has prompted investors to again look to the Treasury market for early direction and lock in recent gains. The 10-yr note is off 7 ticks to yield 4.55% as an unexpected decline in weekly jobless claims has done little to assuage fears of further monetary tightening. DJ30 -33.94 NASDAQ -5.95 SP500 -3.71 NASDAQ Vol 104 mln NYSE Vol 58 mln

[UpInArms]

28. 10:09 EST potholes growing

Dow 11,067.70 -69.47 (-0.62%)
Nasdaq 2,275.33 -7.84 (-0.34%)
S&P 500 1,286.93 -5.74 (-0.44%)
10-Yr Bond 4.553 +0.22 (+0.49%)

NYSE Volume 297,297,000
Nasdaq Volume 309,884,000

09:40 am : Cash market finds little in the way of market moving news items to help extend yesterday's widespread buying efforts. Concern that the market has gotten ahead of itself, especially amid uncertainty as to when the Fed will stop raising interest rates, has prompted investors to again look to the Treasury market for early direction and lock in recent gains. The 10-yr note is off 7 ticks to yield 4.55% as an unexpected decline in weekly jobless claims has done little to assuage fears of further monetary tightening. DJ30 -33.94 NASDAQ -5.95 SP500 -3.71 NASDAQ Vol 104 mln NYSE Vol 58 mln

[UpInArms]

29. Hedge funds now friend, not foe of private equity

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=uri:2006-02-23T142030Z_01_L23233148_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-GERMANY-HEDGEFUNDS.XML

FRANKFURT, Feb 23 (Reuters) - What a difference a year makes.

Henry Kravis, founding partner of buyout firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co., did not use the words "hedge fund" once during his half hour-long speech at this year's annual private equity conference in Germany.

Last year, Kravis could barely focus on anything else.

Sure hedge funds were skilled at picking stocks, Kravis said then, but that didn't mean they could buy and run companies. Private equity firms, he warned, needed to guard their turf.

Fast forward 12 months, and the buyout pioneer -- when questioned -- said hedge funds were potential participants in future deals and that he expected to see more of their presence.

The shift in his view on hedge funds from adversary to potential partner is part of a trend in the buyout industry that some experts say will become more pronounced.

When the big names in the private equity world convened for the annual conference in 2005, hedge funds had just started to cross over into their turf.

Before, funds had played mostly around the fringes, often providing short-term debt for leveraged buyouts. But as more and more money kept pouring into hedge funds, they started getting more aggressive.

...more...

[ozymandius]

33. 10:32 and everybody's losing ground - even bonds

Dow 11,078.58 -58.59 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,277.54 -5.63 (-0.25%)
S&P 500 1,288.43 -4.24 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 45.55 +0.24 (+0.53%)
NYSE Volume 425,172,000
Nasdaq Volume 422,774,000

[EuroObserver]

39. Barrick Gold Shares Slip Despite Profits

Barrick Gold Corp. shares fell nearly 3 percent Thursday, a day after the world's largest gold miner reported higher profits for the fourth quarter and all of 2005.

The Canadian company reported after the markets closed Wednesday that it earned $175 million, or 32 cents per share, for the last three months of Dec. 31 versus $156 million, or 29 cents per share, a year ago. Revenue was $776 million on gold sales of 1.65 million ounces, compared with $501 million in revenue on gold sales of 1.2 million ounces for the prior-year quarter. Sales volumes increased due to the contribution from new mines, Barrick said. It also got a $50-per-ounce higher realized price for its gold.
...

Its shares fell 83 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $28.11 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange, but are still close to the higher end of their 52-week range of $21.07 to $32.14. For the full year, net income surged to $401 million, or 75 cents per share, from $248 million, or 46 cents per share, in 2004. Revenue rose to $2.35 billion from $1.93 billion in 2004.

The company said full-year production was 5.46 million ounces of gold, at total cash costs of $227 per ounce, which the company said was "in line with its original production and cost targets during a year of significant cost pressures for the mining industry."

...more...

[UpInArms]

40. Deere to buy notes, lowers earnings outlook

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-23T150248Z_01_N23444277_RTRIDST_0_MANUFACTURING-DEERE-OUTLOOK-UPDATE-1.XML

CHICAGO, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Deere & Co. (DE.N: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's largest manufacturer of agricultural equipment, on Thursday said it would repurchase up to $500 million in notes in order to reduce its debt, and as a result cut its earnings outlook for its second quarter and fiscal year.

Shares of Deere, which said the debt repurchase is also designed to reduce interest expense, slid 1.2 percent to $77.97 in early trade on the New York Stock Exchange.

The Moline, Illinois-based company said it now expects net profit of $600 million to $700 million for the fiscal second quarter ending April 30, down from its previous forecast of $725 million to $750 million.

The company lowered its full-year earnings forecast to $1.65 billion, from a prior estimate of $1.7 billion.

Deere said it was offering to purchase for cash a portion of its outstanding notes. Holders of notes have until midnight Eastern time March 22 to tender their notes.

...more...

[UpInArms]

42. HealthSouth to pay $445 mln to settle lawsuits

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-02-23T152517Z_01_N23174690_RTRIDST_0_HEALTH-HEALTHSOUTH-UPDATE-2.XML

CHICAGO, Feb 23 (Reuters) - HealthSouth Corp. (HLSH.PK: Quote, Profile, Research), a provider of rehabilitation services, on Thursday said it has agreed to pay at least $445 million to settle class-action lawsuits over its accounting and financial reporting.

The news sent the company's shares up nearly 5 percent in over-the-counter trading. The shares have dwindled in recent years amid an accounting scandal, the ouster of its chief executive, and several government probes.

Birmingham, Alabama-based HealthSouth said it is not admitting wrongdoing in the settlement, which also covers some former executives and directors.

Under the settlement, investors will receive $230 million from HealthSouth's insurance carriers and $215 million in HealthSouth stock and warrants -- 25.1 million common shares, and 11-year warrants to buy 40.8 million shares at $8.28 each.

Investors will also receive 25 percent of net recoveries from judgments that HealthSouth obtains against former CEO Richard Scrushy, former auditor Ernst & Young, and former lead investment bank UBS.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

44. Lenovo unveils new line of PCs for small businesses

SINGAPORE, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Lenovo Group Ltd., the world's third-largest PC maker, on Thursday unveiled a new line of models for small businesses, taking the brand outside China for the first time in a bid to grow at twice the market rate.

Lenovo , China's largest maker of personal computers, burst onto the world stage last year after it bought International Business Machines Corp.'s struggling PC business for US$1.25 billion.
...

The launch marks the start of the group's push into overseas markets using the Lenovo brand. Up till now, Lenovo PCs were sold in China while the IBM Think brand was marketed internationally.
...

Since the IBM deal was completed, Lenovo has set an ambitious target of increasing sales at twice the market rate, aiming to become the world's second-largest PC maker by unseating either Dell Inc. or Hewlett Packard Co. Ltd. -- the number one and two players respectively.
...

In January, Lenovo disappointed the market with a net profit of HK$365 million ($47 million) for the quarter ended December, after an operating loss of HK$140 million for its businesses in Asia excluding greater China pulled down its overall performance.

...more...

ed. Hmm. Maybe I'll buy a Lenovo Thinkpad next time around. This here three-year-old Dell's overdue replacement...

[Tace]

57. Mogambo Mentioned WorldNewsTrust.org This Week!

(It's in the 3rd graf, in reference to a story WNT picked up about "upheaval" March 20-26. Warning -- he does some severe Dem-bashing this week. --Tace)

MOGAMBO GURU: The Sound Of Wolves Howling In The Distance

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics -- World News Trust

I don't remember the sound of wolves howling in the distance, but it was a darkly inauspicious start to the beginning of the Bernanke reign of monetary terror and pain, as Total Fed Credit at the Federal Reserve shot up $6.7 billion last week, which is a handy measure of the amount of excess money and credit are being created -- poof! --out of thin air by the monstrous Federal Reserve.

But that pales in comparison to the biggest and most unbelievable fraud, which is NOT that I pretend that I am a decent, caring human being, but that the total debt of the United States is now at $8.248 trillion, which is $8,248 billion, which is $8,248,000 million, which is enough to make instant millionaires out of 2.8% of the population of the country! We owe, as a taxpaying nation, enough money to create instant millionaires out of almost 1 in 30 people in the country! My God! My eyes bug out of my head and my stomach churns, going gorp gorp ga-lorp, at the very thought of such monetary, financial, economic and social malfeasance, and I think to myself, "Do I have enough frozen pizzas and ammunition to sustain me during the economic upheaval that is coming?"

Now you want to know, "What upheaval?" Well, on the WorldNewsTrust.org site we read "The Laboratoire européen d’Anticipation Politique Europe 2020 (LEAP/E2020) now estimates to over 80% the probability that the week of March 20-26, 2006 will be the beginning of the most significant political crisis the world has known since the Fall of the Iron Curtain in 1989, together with an economic and financial crisis of a scope comparable with that of 1929." I re-read and re-read and re-read that part about it being "comparable" to 1929, which is the year that the stock market crashed and ushered in the Great Depression. But there is, so these guys say, only an 80% chance of that, which is the exact odds my wife figured of our marriage lasting less than a week. They are obviously not interested in my matrimonial problems, and blithely continue, "This last week of March 2006 will be the turning-point of a number of critical developments, resulting in an acceleration of all the factors leading to a major crisis, disregarding any American or Israeli military intervention against Iran. In case such an intervention is conducted, the probability of a major crisis to start rises up to 100%."

Of course, I could not let it pass without a snide and sneering comment that the Treasury Department of the United States has now, illegally, put us $64 billion dollars farther in debt, in just a couple of weeks, than is authorized by law! As aghast as that makes me, I can only imagine with horror what foreign creditors make of this terrifying development, now that the damned Treasury Department has proved to the world that laws mean nothing to it, nor to the executive branch, nor to the legislative branch, who all sit there watching and doing nothing.

more

http://worldnewstrust.org/modules/AMS/article.php?storyid=2403

[EuroObserver]

63. Link to the LEAP/E2020 ALERT here:

http://www.newropeans-magazine.org/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=3463&Itemid=85
(home page: http://www.newropeans-magazine.org/ )

(note: the site's frontpage now says: "Newropeans Magazine apologizes for the difficulties encountered by our readers yesterday. Due to huge traffic coming from the US and Canada, the site was extremely difficult to access from 16.00 (Paris time) till late in the evening.").

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

66. So How Valid Is This?

Could there be some Bad Bad things coming our way starting the final week of March, or more specifically March 20-26? It seems rather "prophet" like to suggest a specific week for it all to fall down.

If I'm not mistaken, that more or less coincides with the supposed introduction of the iranian oil bourse. It also is close to the next Fed meeting, the first one with bernanke in charge.

[EuroObserver]

67. It claims to be a 'significant (top-5)' European think-tank.

(First I'd heard of it, though, on Monday).

In summary, they say:

An Alarm based on 2 verifiable events
The announcement of this crisis results from the analysis of decisions taken by the two key-actors of the main on-going international crisis, i.e. the United States and Iran:

- on the one hand there is the Iranian decision of opening the first oil bourse priced in Euros on March 20th, 2006 in Teheran, available to all oil producers of the region ;

- on the other hand, there is the decision of the American Federal Reserve to stop publishing M3 figures (the most reliable indicator on the amount of dollars circulating in the world) from March 23, 2006 onward<1>.

These two decisions constitute altogether the indicators, the causes and the consequences of the historical transition in progress between the order created after World War II and the new international equilibrium in gestation since the collapse of the USSR. Their magnitude as much as their simultaneity will catalyse all the tensions, weaknesses and imbalances accumulated since more than a decade throughout the international system.

A world crisis declined in 7 sector-based crises
LEAP/E2020's researchers and analysts thus identified 7 convergent crises that the American and Iranian decisions coming into effect during the last week of March 2006, will catalyse and turn into a total crisis, affecting the whole planet in the political, economic and financial fields, as well as in the military field most probably too:

1. Crisis of confidence in the Dollar
2. Crisis of US financial imbalances
3. Oil crisis
4. Crisis of the American leadership
5. Crisis of the Arabo-Muslim world
6. Global governance crisis
7. European governance crisis

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

68. Iranian Bourse & M3

Those are the 2 triggers they're looking to. The question is, are these both certanties? I wouldn't expect iran to back down from their intentions, nor the Fed to suddenly change their mind about not publishing M3 any longer.

Are these two items all they're cracked up to be? And nobody high up is concerned? Or does it just not meet with their agenda, so they're not paying attention to the calamity that could result in late March? The better question, is how to prepare, if it indeed is on the immediate horizon.

[Roland99]

72. Nobody high up where? In the admin? They're all yes-men...or

bought and paid for (perhaps even with blackmail)

[AnneD]

70. So much of the market comes down to trust.....

we trust that the money we are paid is worth what they say it is worth, we trust the stats on unemployment etc....what happens when the rest of the population sees Bush for what he is and comes to some of the conclusions that we have here. What will that do for the confidence in our economic institutions? I have no clue. But one thing I am certain of...we will live in interesting times.

[EuroObserver]

79. "interesting times" See: China way thinking in USA!

We are all one. :dilemma:

[converted_democrat]

58. Need to know if in "theory" the Federal Reserve could be sold..n/t

[UpInArms]

59. the poop on the Fed

http://www.federalreserve.gov/generalinfo/faq/faqfrs.htm

and here's what created the Fed

Federal Reserve Act

Dispersed throughout 12 USC; ch. 6, 38 Stat. 251 (December 23, 1913)

To provide for the establishment of Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic currency, to afford means of rediscounting commercial paper, to establish a more effective supervision of banking in the United States, and for other purposes.

...more with links...

[converted_democrat]

61. Thanks..

I'm "chatting" with a person who thinks that if the port deal goes ahead, that the federal reserve will be next.. I don't understand how that could even happen, if it could even happen.. Thanks for the info, I'm going to go read now..

[Tace]

89. The Federal Reserve Is A Private Bank Owned By About A Dozen...

large, old-money families. I've never read that it couldn't be sold, although I'm not sure why anyone would want to sell the ability to create money from thin air.

[skids]

71. Silicon Shortage Drives Global Solar Mergers

Acquisitions in the global solar industry are off to a strong start in 2006 following a major realignment in the solar industry. The recent sale of Shell Solar's crystalline solar business to SolarWorld was a clear indication that the economics of the photovoltaic manufacturing business has changed. Global merger and acquisition activity in the renewable energy sector has been growing at just under 50 percent per annum for five years, reaching $14USD billion in 2005, according to London, UK-based New Energy Finance. Activity in the photovoltaics sector, which has been one of the most acquisitive, is expected to increase.

The worldwide silicon shortage is a major driver of the pickup in M&A activity says Walter Nasdeo of Ardour Capital Partners. Over 90 percent of global solar cell production is silicon based. Despite very high demand for photovoltaic equipment, the raw material shortage is squeezing margins. Solar World cited two major benefits of the Shell deal: one, it secures more access to silicon supply and, two, monocrystalline solar technology provides the highest yields and, thus, requires less silicon. The deal makes the German photovoltaic supplier the largest solar power company in the US.

...

While the number of potentially accretive deals is indeed finite, there are discernable trends. Many companies are building core competencies in promising technologies -- nanosolar, thin films and building integrated photovoltaics (BIPV). This month, Barnabus Energy (OTC BB: BBSE) completed its transition to a solar energy pure play, divesting its natural gas assets and adding two more solar companies to its portfolio -- Connect Renewable Energy and Solar Roofing Systems -- buying a presence in the fastest growing sector of photovoltaics, building integrated photovoltaics. Barnabus' core solar business has been the development of a patented solar concentrator.

...

In fact, many of these solar plays may be trading at a discount due to the silicon deficit. Analysts note that capacity-constrained solar gear makers can sell anything they can produce. Fortunately, the silicon industry is moving quickly to increase production. With the anticipated easing of the silicon shortage in 2008, SolarWorld expects its Shell buy to help bring the company from 50 percent capacity utilization today to 100 percent by 2007/2008. Kitz sees 20 percent upside in SolarWorld's stock price based on a blended analysis of discounted cash flow and economic value added (EVA), a measure of shareholder wealth over time based on a firm's profitability relative to its cost of capital.

http://www.renewableenergyaccess.com/rea/news/story?id=43983

So the upshot of all that is, for the renewable energy stock purchaser, you have to make the call as to whether the new low-Si technologies like string ribbon, or the non-Si technologies like CIS/CIGS are going to have enough time in this Si shortage to scale up. (Or maybe invest in the Si suppliers since it's likely that they'll make a hefty sum even if things go badly for monocrystal Si producers, as they try to tread water for a few years against other technologies.) Shell seems to be betting on the new stuff -- they kept their CIS facilities.

[EuroObserver]

81. Good info, thanks.

SolarWorld (DE) maybe a litte heavy (though generally healthy, down today) in my portfolio right now.

I certainly, for ethical, ecological, as well as bottom-line reasons want to invest in intelligent energy for the future.

[UpInArms]

83. really interesting: SA solar research eclipses rest of the world

http://www.int.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=143&art_id=vn20060211110132138C184427

In a scientific breakthrough that has stunned the world, a team of South African scientists has developed a revolutionary new, highly efficient solar power technology that will enable homes to obtain all their electricity from the sun.

This means high electricity bills and frequent power failures could soon be a thing of the past.

The unique South African-developed solar panels will make it possible for houses to become completely self-sufficient for energy supplies.

The panels are able to generate enough energy to run stoves, geysers, lights, TVs, fridges, computers - in short all the mod-cons of the modern house.

<snip>

The new, highly efficient and cheap alloy solar panel is much more efficient than the costly old silicone solar panels.

International experts have admitted that nothing else comes close to the effectiveness of the South African invention.

The South African solar panels consist of a thin layer of a unique metal alloy that converts light into energy. The photo-responsive alloy can operate on virtually all flexible surfaces, which means it could in future find a host of other applications.

...more...

[EuroObserver]

85. Hmm. Wow. Top priority for further research.

"The South African solar panels consist of a thin layer of a unique metal alloy that converts light into energy. The photo-responsive alloy can operate on virtually all flexible surfaces, which means it could in future find a host of other applications.

Alberts said the new panels are approximately five microns thick (a human hair is 20 microns thick) while the older silicon panels are 350 microns thick. the cost of the South African technology is a fraction of the less effective silicone solar panels."

Uh huh, let's see.

Thanks, UiA!

[skids]

91. It's a tweak on CIGS.

The article is a bit hyped. They added a little sulfur to the standard CIGS formula, is all. Even by their figures their $/watt end price won't be much lower than what CIGS companies predict.

Active medium-scale CIGS plants are Shell and sometime this year Honda. R&D companies in the field are DayStar, HelioVolt and MiaSole.

[EuroObserver]

92. Aha. Thanks skids.

For those who want to know:

Next Generation Thin Film Solar Devices

"Thin film solar cells made from Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide (CIGS) absorbers show great promise in achieving high conversion efficiencies approaching 20%. The record high efficiency of CIGS solar cells (19.2% NREL) is by far the highest compared with those achieved by other thin film technologies such as Cadmium Telluride (CdTe) or amorphous Silicon (a-Si)."

ed. Yeah, I'm observing Honda very closely...

[UpInArms]

80. Fewer Americans own stocks

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B0D145D97%2D93C3%2D4DBB%2D96B3%2D892F6ED1FA19%7D&siteid=mktw&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The share of American households owning corporate equities declined for the first time in a decade in the three years between 2001 and 2004, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.

Not only did fewer families own stocks in 2004, their average holdings fell abruptly, despite the fact that the major U.S. stock indexes had recovered to 2001 levels by the end of 2004, the Fed said in its survey of consumer finances, the most detailed look at trends in income and assets available. Read more about the survey.

The report showed that median income and median net worth grew in the period at a slower pace than seen between 1995 and 2001. Debt levels increased, but so did real estate holdings.

In 2004, the percentage of households with direct ownership of stocks dropped to 20.7% from 21.3% in 2001. The share of families owning stock either directly or indirectly through a mutual fund or retirement account fell to about 49% in 2004 from a record 52% in 2001.

Among those who owned stock directly, the median value of their directly owned holdings dropped to $15,000 from $21,300 in 2001, the Fed said. The figures are adjusted for inflation.

...more...

[UpInArms]

82. 3:39 EST Running for the exits

Dow 11,083.46 -53.71 (-0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,284.52 +1.35 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,289.75 -2.92 (-0.23%)
10-Yr Bond 4.567 +0.36 (+0.79%)

NYSE Volume 1,824,821,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,555,679,000

3:30 pm : Range-bound trading persists heading into the close of trading as there isn't a strong sense of conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle. GM's woes continue to weigh on the Dow while Intel (INTC 20.41 +0.26), one of only four of the PHLX Semi Index's 19 components to sport a gain, still struggles to offset recent deterioration in the hardware group. DJ30 -35.70 NASDAQ +5.34 SOX -0.6% SP500 -0.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1482/1513/1.49 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1723/1533/1.32 bln

3:00 pm : Little changed since the last update as the major averages vacillate in roughly the same ranges. The market's holding pattern has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as both advancing and declining issues on the NYSE remain evenly matched while advancers on the Nasdaq hold a slim 15-to-14 advantage over decliners. A split ratio of down-to-up volume, however, paints more of a mixed picture at the Big Board and the Composite, which is evidenced by the Dow and S&P trading lower while the Nasdaq clings to modest gains. DJ30 -39.62 NASDAQ +5.15 SP500 -1.39 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1421/1547/1.37 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1604/1613/1.20 bln

[AnneD]

84. Ok...

the theme for the day is NOT 'Nearer My God to Thee' but I hear the guys playing some Mozart to calm the passangers (Eine Kleine Nachtmusik).

[UpInArms]

87. What was that tune they were playing at the end on the Titanic?

:evilgrin:

[AnneD]

90. I think it was the 2 I mentioned...

Nearer My God to Thee was the last song played.

1. Nearer, my God to Thee,
Nearer to Thee.
E'en though it be a cross
That raiseth me,
Still all my song shall be.
Nearer, my God, to Thee,
Nearer, my God, to Thee,
Nearer to Thee.
<snip>
2. Though like the wanderer,
The sun gone down,
Darkness be over me,
My rest a stone,
Yet in my dreams I'd be
Nearer, my God, to Thee,
<snip>
3. There let my way appear
Steps unto heaven;
All that Thou sendest me
In mercy given;
Angels to beckon me
Nearer, my God, to Thee,
<snip>
5. Or if on joyful wing,
Cleaving the sky,
Sun, moon, and stars forgot,
Upward I fly,
Still all my song shall be,
Nearer, my God, to Thee,
Nearer, my God, to Thee,
Nearer to Thee.

the last verse is my fav......

[UpInArms]

86. NC:Economic Prosperity @ City Level:13 will lose jobs due to budget crisis

http://www.ecnnews.com/cgi-bin/05/snstory.pl?-sec-News+1k589g0+fn-slayoffs-20060223-

SALEM — Thirteen people will lose their jobs under a major cost-saving and reorganization plan announced by Mayor Kim Driscoll yesterday.

The layoffs cut across seven city departments, affect both union and nonunion employees and include people from all ranks, including Linda Elworthy, the director of elder services since 1998. The job cuts announced yesterday do not include an unknown number of layoffs in the School Department, which Driscoll said are "definitely" on their way.

Driscoll said the cuts are difficult but unavoidable.

"It's been terrible," a visibly pained Driscoll said yesterday. "There are people on this list who are friends of mine. There are people on this list whose kids I know. They are all valuable, but we just don't have a choice."

The layoffs are only one of several steps announced by Driscoll yesterday in an effort to plug a roughly $4 million hole in the city budget.

...more...

Don't you love that Trickle Down Piss on Me Theory? :sarcasm:

[ozymandius]

88. and the winner is....

nobody named Bond, Dow, Nas-DAK and Essanpee.

Dow 11,069.22 -67.95 (-0.61%)
Nasdaq 2,279.32 -3.85 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,287.79 -4.88 (-0.38%)
10-Yr Bond 45.67 +0.36 (+0.79%)
NYSE Volume 2,119,626,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,791,518,000

4:20 pm : What began as a day with no specific news to account for the lack of early buying interest, growing concern that the market got ahead of itself yesterday, especially amid uncertainty as to when the Fed will stop raising interest rates, sparked broad-based consolidation.

Again looking to the Treasury market for direction, a rise in borrowing costs provided an incentive for investors to take profits in the very bank and brokerage stocks that helped pace yesterday's relief rally. Even though an unexpected decline in weekly jobless claims does not change views on the economy, a sixth straight read below the 300K level reflecting a strengthening labor market, coupled with a tepid 5-yr note auction, prevented the 10-yr note (-09/32) from recovering from session lows to yield 4.55%.

Oil prices were also in focus heading into the EIA's rescheduled weekly oil report but the commodity traded in erratic fashion throughout much of the session as the data showed supplies were sufficient to replenish reduced shipments from Nigeria. However, even though oil prices pared some of their losses late in the day, the Energy sector's inability to take notice and perhaps provide a floor of influential support only added to the market's late-day breakdown that helped erase Wednesday's gain on the Dow.

Of the other six sectors underperforming on the day, Technology paced the way lower as investors locked in semiconductor and hardware gains. Deere & Co (DE 77.81 -1.08) reducing its Q2 EPS outlook weighed on Industrials while Health Care was another influential leader to the downside. Market participants viewed strong earnings from Express Scripts (ESRX 88.43 -5.48) as a reason to lock in gains which lifted the stock to a historic high yesterday.

Despite strong earnings reports from Limited Brands (LTD 24.15 +0.74) and Toll Brothers (TOL 33.58 +1.09), continued weakness in autos and a disappointment from recently divided media giant Viacom (VIA.B 40.99 -0.91) weighed on Consumer Discretionary. Even Materials closed lower, as weakness in gold eventually offset an analyst upgrade on the steel industry.

Consumer Staples, though, eked out a modest gain, benefiting from better than expected earnings and encouraging guidance from Safeway (SWY 24.35 +1.10). Nonetheless, the sector's defensive nature and SWY's undue influence on the broader market did little to divert the market's attention from the reality that profit expectations for this year need to be lowered and that more Fed tightening is on the horizon. BTK +0.2% DJ30 -67.95 DJTA -0.4% DJUA -0.5% DOT -0.5% NASDAQ -3.85 NQ100 -0.3% R2K -0.2% SOX -1.2% SP400 -0.3% SP500 -4.88 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1649/1378/1.79 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1881/1405/1.57 bln