Polling analysis finds GOP in the lead (Gallup skewed in favor of Dems?)

[sabra]

http://www.washtimes.com/national/20060227-123359-5955r.htm

Polling analysis finds GOP in the lead

THE WASHINGTON TIMES


Most polls say a majority of registered voters would vote Democrat if the congressional elections were held today, but a new independent polling analysis now finds that Republicans could lead among people who actually vote.

The CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll reported last week that the Democrats led Republicans among registered voters in the generic congressional survey by 50 percent to 43 percent, a seven-point margin that could give Democrats enough victories to take control of the House, if their supporters participate in November's elections.

But a deeper analysis of these numbers by David W. Moore for the Gallup Poll said, "It is likely many voters will not do so" because turnout among registered voters tends to be lower than that among "likely voters" who say they plan to vote and usually do.

In his analysis, Mr. Moore writes that Gallup's "experience over the past two midterm elections, in 1998 and 2002, suggests that the (registered voters) numbers tend to overstate the Democratic margin by about 10? percentage points."

:rofl:

[unblock]

1. so hard for democratic votes to actually count....

[Tiggeroshii]

24. He's right in manipulating the numbers

considering they'll be far more manipulated come election day. I think the margin overstated for the Democrats with the way we vote today, is closer to 20 or 30%, if you consider the rapid certifications of Diebold voting machines throughout the states.

There is no majority for the Democrats, unless we are able to get some major organization on this issue quick...

[vi5]

2. I tend to believe this is true....

I think in terms of polling a lot of people probably end up saying "Yeah, I'd vote dem. Those republicans are really mucking things up" but too often when those people see two candidates together opposing each other they tend to easily fall for the "there's no difference" meme that gets put out there and fall too easily for the repub scaremongering that cause them to say "screw it" and just stay home.

[RaleighNCDUer]

28. Which is exactly what they want you to think.

The only people I've met who said "screw it" in 04 were people who are so blissfully unaware that they wouldn't ever say "yeah, I'd vote Dem".

Everyone I've met who says that, does that.

This is just lining up the "polls" to support the "surprising strength of the Republicans in the wake of a year of scandals and disappointments" in the elections this fall.

Count on it.

[vi5]

32. Well, I don't know who you hang out with...

..but I have a lot of friends and family who are aware enough to know that republicans are in charge and that things suck, and who right now say "screw the bastards in power" and if polled would probably say the same thing.

However, they are just unaware enough to be suckered into believing media spin and scare tactics when placed closely enough to an election and are unaware enough to be suckered into believing negative campaigning against individual dem candidates.

[wabeewoman]

31. Yep

my sister said that to me the other day after bashing our dem governor. I reminded her she said "it wouldn't make any difference and they were both the same" about bush. She voted for him the first time and loathes him now...

[zanne]

3. "deeper" analysis=grasping at straws nt

[KansDem]

4. Hear that, GOPers?! You've got it made!

Take it easy this November, and let your fellow GOPers make that cosmetic trip to the polls.

Stay home and relax!

[Liberal Veteran]

6. And all us dems should stay home as well....

....and vote from the warmth and comfort of our own home through absentee ballots!

[Tiggeroshii]

25. Everybody should...

The only votes that are gonna be accurately counted anyways are absentee ballots.

[bluestateguy]

5. It's alll how you define a likely voter

That's the real trick.

[Liberal Veteran]

10. I can imagine how the Wa Times does it...

Do you listen to Sean Hannity? (Likely voter if yes)
Do you listen to Rush Limpballs? (Likely voter if yes)
Is Fox News or Washington Times your main source of news? (Likely voter if yes)
Do you listen to Al Franken? (Not Likely if yes)
Did you see Fahrenheit 9/11? (Not Likely if yes)
Are you a registered democrat? (Not likely if yes)

[wisteria]

7. What? Democrats don't vote? Boy, this is pure spin. n/t

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

8. If they have no faith in their own polling, why'd they do the poll?

[Norquist Nemesis]

9. "a new independent polling analysis"

so says the Washington Times! :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

[formercia]

11. Master Moon putting a little spin on the data.

Right....

[zann725]

12. And Mr. Moore reached this "deeper analysis"...after perhaps "friendly"

call or visit from someone in Admin? Is this at all reminiscent of all the MSM Exit Polls suddenly changing in Shrub's favor when it appeared he was losing in '04?

[kimpossible]

13. Make that "likely to have their votes counted" voters

As long as they control the voting machines, is it any surprise that the "official" vote totals keep being so "surprisingly" off?

[rooboy]

14. Headline should read "GOP ahead among Diebold Voters" n/t

[Massachusetts]

15. "It is likely many voters will not do so"

"The independent Power commission calls for sweeping changes to prevent a dangerous gulf between politicians and the people becoming even wider. Its ideas include allowing the public to initiate legislation and a shift of power back from the Government to Parliament, following criticism that Tony Blair has neutered it."
-Independent

http://news.independent.co.uk/uk/politics/article348005.ece

At least they are trying...

[still_one]

16. It is up to the people to show them they are wrong

frankly the election turnout in this country IS PATHETIC

If people do not believe it matters, then they will and are getting what they deserve

[the other one]

17. This is pre-spin to explain why the GOP wins big in 06.

I think they are dead-on. Democrats will make minor gains but fail to gain control of either house. Pre-election polling may show dems leading, but when the votes are counted, it will turn out that once again the dems don't bother to vote. Well, they vote, but for the wrong guy, so they have to throw those votes out.

[Exiled in America]

18. PREP FOR DIEBOLD, pure and simple.

[joeunderdog]

40. YAWN...Yup, I can hear it now. Dems were just too lazy to vote.

They lost because they were upset, but not mad enough to get their lazy asses off the couch on voting day. And, sure, the Repubs made some mistakes, but the Dems just couldn't come together on an agenda.

This message brought to you by the makers of Republican Dominance, your friends at Diebold...

[wordpix]

19. more reason to work hard to elect Dems in '06 and '08 because

it's clear the sheeple are still sleeping, if we can believe this poll.

[Javaman]

20. Here we go, laying the ground work for another election fraud...

This is the first shot across the bow. More will come. They are softening up the electorate for the coming november fraud.

[GOTV]

21. This is a warning we would all do well to heed

In 2000 we all believed there was no way that idiot from Texas could beat Al Gore. And well, he didn't actually beat him, but he was close enough.

After Bush's disastrous 1st term everyone I knew thought Kerry, a far more intelligent man, and a war hero, would beat Bush easily. He lost out right.

Now again, Progressive boards cheer news of additional Bush missteps and favorable polls confident that now, after 6 years of crime, cronyism and corruption, people will surely vote the bums out.

And yet, at every organizing meeting I attend to prepare to fight for the '06 election, there will be more empty seats than full ones. Many of my well meaning, right hearted, progressive friends will be at home reading democratic underground, Daily Kos and the rest and dreaming of the next election cycle when we will surely win.

I wish the last six years would convince us progressives that good polls and bad news does not win elections for us. Work wins elections.

You may think it's not possible now, but the GOP could increase its margins again. And if all you do is vote, it's not enough.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

23. Money.

As long as the media is owned by people who are only interested is money, the guy with the money will control the message. Polls and Diebold are minor problems. The message and the spin are what sinks our candidates. Did anyone think that an honest intelligent war hero could be reduced to pulp and made to look like a fool and a traitor? No. It took a LOT of money to spread that lie over and over across the airwaves and convince normally intelligent people that it was true.

We must continue our underground battle because we know we are on the side of right, but I don't really know if we will ever win. Someday something bigger than money might wake this complacent nation once again, but I just don't have a guess as to what that might be.

[GOTV]

26. What's bigger than Money?

We are.

If everyone of us became proselytizing disciples for the progressive cause we would be louder than the TVs. And discussion boards on web sites don't count. I mean face to face personal conversations with friends, families and strangers. I don't mean expressing an opinion if the subject comes up. I mean going out with the explicit purpose of telling people about your cause or candidate.

Put on your shoes and your coat and take a stack of fliers you printed on your home computer and go out to a busy corner and sell your ideas. It's scary but it can be done.

If we ALL did it, each one of us personally (check writing also doesn't count, although you should write checks too) we'd be bigger than the money and louder than the televisions.

That's what I think.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

30. Yes, my generation ended a war, so I know it is possible.

Of course back then the draft was breathing down our necks, and the media were allowed to tell the people that our kids were dying over there. This is a different world; so much more controlled and kept out of our hands.

But you're right. That only means that we have to work all the harder. And a little prayer wouldn't hurt. :)

[GOTV]

34. Then you deserve a heart felt thanks...

... and I agree that without a draft and a free media, it's harder to get people motivated.

Still I get tired of sitting with friends who complain about what's going on but leave me to go door to door on my own.

But what really gets me is how, after the last three elections, progressives are always posting "They're going down" to every new poll or scandal. No matter how often the GOP pops up on top of the election results they're still convinced that it's slam dunk next time.

Or they're posting defeatist "The elections are rigged" posts.

Either way it gives otherwise good willed progressives the cover to stay home and let the corporate interests use the corporate media to define the message.

Make no mistake about it, the GOP CAN weather these scandals. Wait until the ads get going full force. Each progressive which doesn't make time to actively spread the word personally and face to face is contributing to the GOP/Corporate advance.

[tinfoilinfor2005]

37. I think one of the more important things that I do that really might

make a difference is this: I have a sign in the back of my car window that says Air America Radio 940 AM. The more people who are aware of this station and where to tune in to it, the better our chances of spreading the truth. When I am traveling out of state, I would love to see this on other vehicles so I would know where to tune in. We have to do more of these things to toot our own horns.

[sofa king]

22. Or the polls could be right, and the elections could be wrong, no?

The analysis isn't necessarily trollop, though. Among other things, the guy has pinned a 10 percent divergence between the polls and the election results. In the worst possible case, that means that there could have been about 11 million votes stolen in 2000 and 2004.

[AX10]

27. This is the Mooney Times.

They need to put out Pro-Bush propaganda in order to make it not seem so bad for the GOP.

[GOTV]

29. If the Moonie times has been predicting GOP Victories...

... They've been pretty much correct this century.

[depakid]

33. Whatever- more cheap media polls

with little or no validity.

People can jump to the tune- and/or argue about them all day long if it suits them.

Doesn't make it any less a waste of time.

[alfredo]

35. Let's prove them wrong this November.

Volunteer with your local party. Pound the pavement, make the calls, do your part in the Get Out The Vote effort.


You are the Democratic party, not the DLC.

[Rex]

36. So in other words; Repukes plan to continue to steal elections

by hook or by crook. Here is the way I read this RW propaganda:

"'A deeper self-reflection into why evidence points to Dems always leading in votes', Moore continues, 'Dems are poor, lazy fuckers while Repukes work hard and will get out to vote their wallet.' He then mumbled some worthless, subjective percentile numbers to bash Dems even more."

[GoddessOfGuinness]

38. I hope a lot of people believe this

...and the appropriate people show up at the voting booths.

[deadparrot]

39. It's the MoonieTimes. 'nuff said. nt