Bird Flu, Spreading in Africa, May Touch Off Pandemic (cat)

[Mojorabbit]

``The first pandemic of the 21st century could come from Africa, rather than Southeast Asia,'' John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary's School of Medicine and Dentistry at the University of London, said in a telephone interview. Oxford said Africa's poverty, densely populated urban and farm areas, intermingling of people and chickens, and poor health services create a fertile ground for the virus.

snip
Cat Infected

A cat from the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen, where Germany's first cases of bird flu were detected, has tested positive for the bird flu virus, the Federal Research Institute for Animal Health said today.

snip

``It's very worrying that this continent doesn't have the means to fight this illness,'' Joseph Domenech, the FAO's chief veterinary officer, said in an interview today. ``The economic situation means that these countries cannot have an immediate and massive reaction. This means some areas of Africa may become pockets for this illness, creating future problems for Europe.''
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000086&sid=a.whrXAnlf8U&refer=latin_america

I know there was a study where cats were infected in a lab and were able to pass it among themselves and there were zoo tigers who died after eating infected chickens but this will be a mess if it spreads in domestic cats.

[Warpy]

1. Africa seems to get the worst of everything

so yes, it will probably make the species jump there, if it does.

Generally, it goes from birds to swine to humans. So far, birds are the only vector, transmission between other infected mammals is inefficient unless they're in very close quarters.

[Mojorabbit]

5. Yes but I am thinking feral cat colonies

which are everywhere and they do eat dead birds....

[Lorien]

11. So do feral dogs, rats, foxes, opossums, raccoons, and other birds

The bird flu won't effect one species, but many species. Humanity and domestic animals won't be done in, but other species may-and biodiversity loss is also a grave threat to all life on earth. Everything is connected.

[Massachusetts]

2. May Touch Off Pandemic

http://effectmeasure.blogspot.com/



Taking stock, part II

We return to the task we set ourselves in Part I, surveying our ignorance about some important bird flu questions. Taking up where we left off, we ask what we know about what determines which species the virus infects. This is not an in-depth treatment. We just mention a few topics still being debated in each category. The extent of disagreement varies with topic...

[alfredo]

3. I fear the loss of protein sources as much as the flu.

What if we couldn't eat chicken or other birds because of this flu? Will it put even more stress on our fisheries.

[Lorien]

13. I have a medical condition that demands a high protein diet-yet

I'm a vegetarian. It can be done; meat consumption (especially beef) is already threatening our future survival because of it's devastating effects on our environment. The entire planet could be fed if we swore off eating mammals-and cutting down on poultry consumption wouldn't hurt either. Sadly, many species of fish are already facing extinction and are badly contaminated by toxins. We, as a species, have done a piss poor job of living sustainably. On top of all this, the world's population will double in 20 years to 14 billion people.We simply can't maintain this.

[alfredo]

15. I only use meat as a flavoring, and only then because my wife

is on synthroid. I was a veggie before we met.

Some parts of the world depend on the sea to live. Asking the Inuit to live without the high fat diets their climate demands wouldn't work. I don't think much of America would want to change their diet. They would rather destroy the world than make any changes to their lifestyle.

[LostinVA]

4. I don't even want to think about my kitties

[Lorien]

14. Keep them indoors

no need to worry then.

[Mojorabbit]

6. So they might cull cats too in the netherlands

A dead cat on the German Baltic island of Rügen has been found carrying the H5N1 bird flu virus. The finding confirms the results of a Dutch study in 2005 showing cats can catch the virus, and suggests they may need to be included in efforts to control the spread of the virus in animals.

No other flu virus has ever been observed to affect cats, but the "Z genotype" H5N1 that has been killing people in east Asia can kill cats of several species. Thijs Kuiken and colleagues at Erasmus University in the Netherlands found cats could catch it by eating infected dead birds, and then pass it other cats.
snip

“The Netherlands has considered that if there is a poultry outbreak, we would definitely have to include the farmer’s cat and any feral cats in control measures,” says Albert Osterhaus at Erasmus, a leading flu expert. “This would probably mean quarantine.”

Nothing so far suggests that cats, which die quickly from H5N1, can become carriers of the virus and they are therefore unlikely to pose a risk to people, he told New Scientist. “It is definitely an acute infection in our experiments. And they don’t shed a lot of virus in their faeces.”
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=dn8785

[The Backlash Cometh]

29. This thing has been all over Asia, and a cat in Germany is the first

cat to get the virus? Doesn't make sense.

[TaleWgnDg]

7. German (domestic) cat gets deadly bird flue

German (domestic) cat gets deadly bird flu
The cat was found on Germany's Ruegen island

A domestic cat in Germany has become the first European Union mammal to die of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu.

The cat was found dead at the weekend on the Baltic island of Ruegen, where dozens of birds infected with H5N1 have been found.

. . . snip . . .

The H5N1 infection in the German cat was confirmed by officials at the national laboratory, the Friedrich Loeffler Institute, but tests are continuing to determine if it is the exact strain that has been found in birds.

. . . snip . . .

Cats have been known to contract the virus from eating infected birds. Three rare civet cats in Vietnam died of bird flu last August. In October 2004, dozens of tigers died at a private zoo in Thailand after a bird flu outbreak.

There are no recorded cases of cat-to-human infection, but the German finding will raise concerns of further cross-species transmission.

. . . snip . . .

H5N1 does not yet pose a large-scale threat to humans. However, experts fear the virus could mutate and trigger a flu pandemic, potentially putting millions of human lives at risk.

. . . more at . . . http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/4758632.stm

(bold-faced type emphasis added by TaleWgnDg)

[Mojorabbit]

8. Here is an old article

Thai dogs carry bird-flu virus, but will they spread it?

http://www.nature.com/news/2006/060...ll/439773a.html
Thai dogs carry bird-flu virus, but will they spread it?
H5N1 antibodies found in village dogs and cats.
Declan Butler

Large numbers of domestic dogs and cats in Thailand may be infected with the H5N1 strain of avian flu, Nature has learned. Experts are struggling to work out whether such carnivores might be spreading the disease.

In an unpublished study carried out last year by the National Institute of Animal Health in Bangkok, researchers led by virologist Sudarat Damrongwatanapokin tested 629 village dogs and 111 cats in the Suphan Buri district of central Thailand. Out of these, 160 dogs and 8 cats had antibodies to H5N1, indicating that they were infected with the virus or had been infected in the past. "That's a lot," says Albert Osterhaus, a virologist at the Erasmus University in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. "This is definitely something to look into." So far, researchers at Bangkok's Chulalongkorn University have isolated the virus from at least one of the dogs.

Wild cats, including tigers, are known to be susceptible to the virus, but this is the first scientific study to find it in dogs, suggesting that infection could be widespread. Osterhaus is pressing officials at the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the World Organisation for Animal Health to monitor dogs, cats and other carnivores for H5N1. "It's a gap in our surveillance," he says. "Basically all carnivores seem susceptible."

This study is the first to look at the prevalence of the virus in dogs or cats in the field - despite anecdotal reports of cat deaths near poultry outbreaks. But Osterhaus's team has done experiments showing that domestic cats get ill and die from H5N1, and can transmit the disease to other cats (T. Kuiken et al. Science 306, 241; 2004).

And last month, a team from his lab published experiments showing that infected cats excrete virus in their faeces as well as in coughed-out droplets, suggesting that they could spread the disease (G. F. Rimmelzwaan et al. Am. J. Pathol. 168, 176-183; 2006).

[Mojorabbit]

9. and this

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1141123686545&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968793972154&t=TS_Home
BERLIN (AP-CP) — The deadly strain of H5N1 avian flu was confirmed Tuesday in a cat in northern Germany, the first time the virus has been identified in a mammal in the European Union — though not the first time cats have been shown to carry the virus.
snip
And Dutch researchers have shown in laboratory studies that cats fed infected chicks become infected with the virus and can spread to other cats.

One of the authors of that work, Dr. Ab Osterhaus of the Eramus Institute in Rotterdam, said Tuesday that while the discovery in Germany is not surprising, it underscores the need to consider that a number of mammals — cats, dogs, perhaps foxes — may be able to transmit this virus.

"I think in outbreak situations, and endemic situations, you should consider cats (as a mode of spread) as well," Osterhaus said.

snip
It is not clear whether cats can pass the disease to humans, Cheng said.

"We know that mammals can be infected by H5N1, but we don't know what this means for humans," she said.
snip
"An infection of humans, which theoretically cannot be ruled out, could probably only occur with very intimate contact to infected animals," Mettenleiter said.

In addition to the large cats infected in Thailand, three house cats near Bangkok were found to be infected with the virus in February 2004. In that case, officials said one cat ate a dead chicken on a farm where there was a bird flu outbreak, and the virus apparently spread to the others.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

10. The links inside will tell you all you want to know about Avian Flu....

...which may be a LOT more than you ever wanted to know....

<http://www.recombinomics.com/whats_new.html>

<http://www.recombinomics.com/in_the_news.html>

<http://www.recombinomics.com/online.html>

<http://www.recombinomics.com/patents.html>

[mike_c]

17. that's Henry Niman's site, and a VERY suspect source....

eom

[CAcyclist]

25. Not a legitimate source nt

[Media_Lies_Daily]

31. How many patents do you have? How much work have....

...you done in any of the fields associated with the study of viruses?

I find it extremely humorous that someone on a message board feels compelled to denigrate the findings and work of a REAL scientist with REAL credentials.

Incredible.

[SaveElmer]

39. Who doesn't publish...

And who does not submit his work for peer review.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

42. Hmmm. So patents don't count, eh? Interesting.

[SaveElmer]

43. A patent means nothing...

There are patents for perpetual motion machines...something doesn't have to work, or be valid to have a patent

[Karmakaze]

47. Real scientist my ARSE!!!

That guy lies through his teeth when it suits him.

[mike_c]

56. dude, for what it's worth, some of us are in fact also "real scientists.."

...with real credentials. Henry Niman has done some good virology work. He's also become the chicken little of avian flu, and no reputable journal will publish his pronouncements. He spreads them via the fundy survivalist network and herbal cure web sites. The recombinomics site is a series of self references.

[WinkyDink]

12. Chickens and feral cats. More terra, terra, terra.

Sorry, but did we have all this "pandemic" talk when the hantavirus struck here about a decade or so ago?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

16. That disease wasn't capable of creating a pandemic of any kind....

...you think that could be the reason that people didn't react to the hantavirus as much as they're reacting to the Avian Flu?

Maybe you ought to do a little more research on the Avian Flu and the similarities of that disease to the 1918 Influenza Pandemic. Maybe that would cause you to take this more seriously.

[SaveElmer]

18. That comparison is overblown...

Even the scientists involved in the recreation of the 1918 virus contend this. In their view, the 1918 virus was lethal because it had so efficiently adapted itself...

News reports make the threat even more ominous. In resurrecting the 1918 pandemic virus, the deadliest flu strain of all time, researchers recently learned that this strain was far deadlier than any other human virus — it killed mice, while normal human flu won't even ruffle a mouse's fur. They also found out that all of its genes came, directly or indirectly, from birds. Unlike the pandemics of 1957 and 1968, the 1918 version didn't arise from a combination of bird and mammal genes. Instead, the bird genes evolved into a human virus that killed as many as 50 million people.

This means, say breathless news reports, that what happened in 1918 could happen again, this time with H5N1.

But Peter Palese doesn't think so. He is lab director at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York, where the technique that re-created the 1918 genes — known as reverse genetic engineering — was developed. He and associate Adolfo Garcia-Sastre contend that what the resurrected virus really shows is how supremely adapted it is — how well its parts fit together, how perfectly it works. The sublime malignance of the 1918 virus doesn't lie in one part but rather in how the genes function together. Evolution shaped this virus to be a sleek, effective killing machine.

...

To think that the 1918 flu started out as a harmless intestinal bird virus that jumped directly from its wild host into human beings and immediately turned into an explosive respiratory killer is to believe that hippos fly. Evolution doesn't work that way. The flu's genes came from birds, but it's what they did when they got into humans that matters.

http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/opinion/la-op-bird23oct23,0,2282635.story

[Mojorabbit]

21. Perhaps

but it is now endemic in half the world and will not be going away soon. It is expected here by summer with migration. It is already infecting people and with a high mortality rate. Most virologists expect it to keep mutating. Will it hit the jackpot? No way to be sure.

[SaveElmer]

22. Some of what you say is problematical...

First, it is not endemic in half the world yet...some predict it will be...we have to wait and see. Second, there is no evidence whatsoever that this has mutated in a way to cause pandemic in people. In fact, if you read WHO's latest report, they note a change in birds, with it becoming more deadly in poultry, and somewhat less so in wild birds.

There is no consensus that it will reach here by summer. There are very few migration flyways that interact with those from Europe or Russia. Some flyways do intersect along the coastline of siberia and Alaska, which in theory could cause an intermingling of the virus, but that is by no means sure. The other potential flyway is from South and Central America where there is no flu yet.

I would say all virologists expect it to keep mutating...all influenza viruses mutate. It is the type of mutation that is key here, and whether this virus has the capability to make the rather significant jump to a human pandemic form.

And last, it has a high mortality rate among those known infected. The actual number infected is not known, but there is evidence that many have been infected but did not become sick. In 1997 in Hong Kong there were hundreds of people with H5N1 antibodies but no infection. Recent reports from South Korea show 4 people there were infected with no symptoms, and of course there is the recent statistical study in Vietnam that points this way as well. I would also point out, in all of the outbreaks in Europe, India, and Africa in the last three weeks, there are still no confirmed human cases. I expect this will change, but it is telling that this is the case!

[Mojorabbit]

23. It is for all intents and purposes endemic now or will be soon

Do you really think India or Africa will be able to eradicate it especially since it is in wild birds that are carriers which do not die or become ill? They have no infrastructure to do that.Even China with it's massive vaccination program has had little luck eradicating it. It is all but endemic and will be for a long time to come.
The turkey farm in France where it showed up was an indoor facility. The owner is speculating his hay which was outside and that he put in the facility may have harbored it.

They do expect it here by summer and to reach both the east and west coast.
http://www.sptimes.com/2006/02/26/Worldandnation/Bird_flu_watchers_kee.shtml
" If the virus is found in Alaska, DeHaven says it would likely spread first down the Pacific coast, because more birds there migrate to Alaska. Winker, meanwhile, said it "will spread across North America quickly, because waterfowl cover the continent."

But veterinarian David Stallknecht, who has studied bird flu in wild birds for more than 20 years, took a different view. Stallknecht said the virus also could come to North America from the east, because migratory paths also cross in Canada."

They are stepping up testing In Alaska and I believe I read in Washington state among others. Last year Canada had low pathogenic h5n1.

There is a study which says the opposite re the latest strains of h5n1 and they found no people with antibodies but I'll be dammed if I can find it right now. I'll keep looking. It came from a lecture I found somewhere several weeks ago. And there are suspected cases in Africa, more in Iraq, a huge cluster in Indonesia with about a death a day, and who knows with India. A lot of those places have high death rates and no infrastructure to test.

As I said in my post....we won't know if it can go pandemic till or if it does. As another poster noted the effect measure site has a great article on what we don't know about viruses or is it virii?

[SaveElmer]

24. I think what you are talking about...

Are some blood studies of health workers in Vietnam...there is no dispute as far as I know of the 1997 results. And there has been no widespread serological testing...which is unbelievable to me!!

As to the migration...I will post some links I found...I have read a number of articles and interviews with experts who think it unlikely that there would be widespread migration of sick birds to the U.S.

As an aside, I wonder how it is that the Philippines, New Zealand and Australia, which are directly along these flyways have so far escaped any infection. Makes me think these outbreaks in India and Africa were from imported birds.

And you are overstating the death rates even in Indonesia...where there have been 20 deaths total...not one a day...and you are speculating on infections in these other countries with no evidence for that. The fact is there have been no confirmed infections in these countries in over three weeks. I don't say there aren't any, but I would have thought some would come to light by now, and none have.

[Mojorabbit]

27. I can't remember

re the study. I know that WHO wass doing serological testing in Turkey but there are no results I have seen yet.
My husband is a birder and knows more about migration routes than I do but he agrees with my previous post. There is a big fight among the bird people and the chicken people about how it is being spread as obviously they have their own agendas. Effect measure goes into this a bit in their blog today but I have seen it being played out for the past year.

Australia and New Zealand are preparing but you are right, have not seen anything there yet but still
it was Switzerland yesterday and Sweden and Niger today confirming their firsst cases and today the Bahamas are testing cause of lots of bird deaths. Might just be a matter of time. I don't know.

[SaveElmer]

28. Yeah actually...

I read today that Turkey has been taking blood samples from everyone that comes in for normal influenza treatment from a previously affected area, but they don't have the money to test these samples...which is really ashame...could really shed light on things.

[Mojorabbit]

50. There has been about one death a day in Indonesia lately

They just have not been confirmed yet. There are twelve cases pending WHO confirmation in Indonesia and there are 32 suspected in hospital this week.
Waiting on confirmation

1. Masalis from Tangerang, 39 years old, who died on Jan. 2nd, 2006;
2. Kadis Indrawan from Indranyamu, 43/45 years old, at home, confirmation via antibody rise ?
3. Ini Indrawan, 15 year old daughter of Kadis, at home, confirmation via antibody rise ?;
4. Yedi or Yonyono, 11/13 year old neighbour of Kadi, ?;
5. Enang Taryana from Sumedang village, hospitalized in critical condition ?; old case?
6. Teti, 20, from Sumedang village ?
7. Doni from Padaralang, 23,
8. Nov. 26th case of a man from Central Java, surviving the H5N1 infection (expected WHO confirmation media announced)
9.-11. no names in papers????
12. Wati/Surciwati, 38 years old woman, died on Feb. 6th, 2006

There are from news reports suspected cases in Nigeria and three more in Iraq.
Iraq checking four possible human cases of bird flu
28 Feb 2006 15:31:29 GMT
example
Source: Reuters


BAGHDAD, Feb 28 (Reuters) - Iraq said on Tuesday it was making checks for three suspected human cases of bird flu in Baghdad and one in the northeastern province of Dayala.

"There are three suspected cases in Baghdad and one in the town of Kefry, in Dayala," said Ibtisam Aziz, head of a health minister task force charged with monitoring the disease.

"All these cases are under observation now by the health ministry."

Two fatal cases of human bird flu -- in a teenage girl and her uncle last month -- have been confirmed in the northern province of Sulaimaniya, close to the border with Turkey.
Will they all test pos? Don't know

Edited to add Ethiopia to the list which confirmed bird flu in birds today

[SaveElmer]

51. Come back when they are confirmed...

There have been too many "suspected" cases that turn out not to be to rely on that number alone.

In a country of what 3/4 of a billion people, this is still a minute number. If there was H2H spread there would be more. And WHO has stated on more than one occasion in the last couple of weeks, that there is absolutely no evidence of mutation toward a H2H form. They did note a change in birds, making it more deadly to poultry flocks, and less so in some wild birds. Not particularly surprising given the relationship between virulence and transmissibility. I think it would be most useful to make efforts to determine the source of infection in India and Africa. I suspect poultry imports in these cases.

I hope Indonesia can get a handle on this better than they have. At the very least this is very destructive to the economic well being of families.

There have been 2 confirmed deaths in Iraq, and 4 in Turkey...and that is it so far in areas outside of Asia.

[Mojorabbit]

53. I will

Indonesia moves their bird flu suspected patients to special hospitals and by now have a pretty good handle on who has or does not have it. It takes the WHO days in some cases and months in others to confirm.

And re it becoming endemic, I am not the only one who thinks so. I believe it already is endemic in most of Asia and will soon be endemic everywhere.

Top scientist fears 'endemic' bird flu
By Kim Pilling and Louise Barnett, PA
Published: 28 February 2006


The Government's Chief Scientific Adviser has predicted bird flu will arrive in the UK and remain for at least five years.

Professor Sir David King said he feared the disease could possibly become "endemic" in Britain.

Sir David told the BBC: "I would anticipate that avian flu will arrive at some point in the UK.

"We also have to anticipate that it will be here for five years plus. We are talking about the possibility of this disease being endemic here in the UK as it did in China. It is a long-term factor."
He had earlier ruled out the use of the currently available bird flu vaccines in the event of a UK outbreak, but conceded they may have to be used if the outbreak was widespread.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,25689-2023668,00.html

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,25689-2023668,00.html
Bird flu strain 'endemic' in Hong Kong
By Sam Lister, Health Correspondent, for Times Online
The deadly strain of bird flu that has spread as far as Eastern Europe is now probably endemic in the region around Hong Kong, the territory’s health chief conceded today.


http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH/01/11/birdflu.wrap/index.html
Turkish bird flu 'may be endemic'

(CNN) -- The bird flu virus could become endemic in Turkey and poses a serious risk to neighboring countries, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) says.

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=25391
Main Category: Bird Flu/Avian Flu News
Article Date: 31 May 2005 - 15:00pm (UK)

While the Indonesian government talks about eradicating bird (avian) flu by the year 2007, WHO has stated that bird flu is endemic in the country.

Me:

The same will happen with africa and india.

[SaveElmer]

55. I have no doubt...

That it is endemic in Asia... it has been there for 8 years, and outbreaks continue at different intervals. My point was, you cannot say something is endemic after only three weeks. And you cetrainly cannot say something is endemic in a place where it has not even arrived yet.

In addition, just being endemic is not as important as the character of the virus. If it is controlled in closely densed bird populations and becomes a disease largely of wild birds it may be endemic, but no longer particularly dangerous.

[Mojorabbit]

65. Here is a report on a death a day lately

Consumer Health
Suspected avian-flu death in Jakarta
By KATE WALKER
UPI Correspondent

OXFORD, England, March 1 (UPI) -- An 11-year-old Indonesian boy has died in Jakarta of what is believed to have been avian influenza, Indonesian doctors announced Wednesday.

The boy, from West Java, had been treated at a local hospital for a few days before being moved to Sulianti Saroso, a hospital that specializes in bird-flu cases, where he died Feb. 27.

Sulianti Saroso is currently treating 11 patients for avian influenza, suspected and confirmed. Three of those patients are in intensive care.

The two most recent admissions are a 25-year-old woman from west Jakarta who is on respiratory assistance and a 1-year-old baby from central Jakarta who was admitted with flu-like symptoms on Tuesday night.
http://www.upi.com/ConsumerHealthDaily/view.php?StoryID=20060301-015906-7902r
(It will probably take the WHO lab months to confirm. Apparently they have a large back up of specimens to be confirmed and are training more labs to be certified)

and


Three other European countries have so far joined Germany in restricting the movement of domestic animals. France and Slovenia have requested that cat owners in infected areas keep their animals indoors, while in Italy, cats and dogs face restricted movement in regions that have seen outbreaks

[SaveElmer]

66. They definitely do not seem to have a handle on this...

Though like I said in a population of close to 3/4 of a billion, this is still a pretty small amount.

[Mojorabbit]

70. Yes, it is not under control there

Here is todays report
March 03, 2006
Suspected bird flu cases on rise across the country
Wahyoe B. Wardhana and Fadli, The Jakarta Post, Malang/Batam

Suspected bird flu cases are being detected in the country at an alarming rate, with more people falling sick in Surakarta in Central Java, Madiun and Malang in East Java and Batam in Riau Islands province.

An as-yet unnamed 12-year-old girl suspected of contracting bird flu died Wednesday night after being treated at the Moewardi Hospital in Surakarta.

Her body has been sent to her hometown in Boyolali, Central Java, for burial, hospital director Mardiatmo told Antara.

Blood tests for the victim have been sent to a Jakarta laboratory for confirmation.

Another seriously ill suspected bird flu patient is being treated in isolation at the hospital.

"Clinical symptoms, including coughing and a high fever, indicate that he is bird flu-positive. The patient also used to live near large-scale quail breeding centers," Tri Lastiti, the deputy director of the hospital, told The Jakarta Post.

The 31-year-old man, identified as Daryoto, was believed to have been infected by the carcasses of dead birds, which had been dumped in the area during the past month.

"Thousands of quails died every day and their remains were just thrown away into a nearby river," Nanik, Daryoto's wife, said.

Central Java Governor Mardiyanto said earlier the provincial administration would launch a large-scale poultry cull of infected birds. The culls would occur in five of the province's 35 regencies -- Karanganyar, Boyolali, Sukoharjo, Sragen and Klaten.

Mardiyanto ordered people to be on the alert for the virus and immediately report any suspected bird flu outbreaks among poultry to their local animal husbandry office.

"If people see scores of chickens dying, they should report this to the nearest office. Animal husbandry and health officials will soon follow up their reports," Mardiyanto said.

####In Bandung, the number of suspected bird flu patients rose by 11 to 66 as of Wednesday. The latest patient was admitted to the city's Hasan Sadikin Hospital on Wednesday.#####

In Madiun, East Java, the condition of a 12-year-old patient from Singkil village, Ponorogo, who is believed to be infected with the virus, remained serious.
http://www.thejakartapost.com/detailheadlines.asp?fileid=20060303.A04&irec=9

[SaveElmer]

71. Yep I saw this...

Doesn't seem like they have a coordinated effort going on!!!

If they are dumping dead birds into rivers they really have done a poor job of educating and coordintaing. Sounds like they might need outside help. Their economy is going to tank if they don't get smart about it.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

33. "Not endemic in half the world"?? What maps are you using?...

...As to your comments about the evidence of H5N1 antibodies "in 1997 in Hong Kong" among "hundreds of people" who failed to get sick, do you happen to have a link to a credible study claiming that to be the case?

[SaveElmer]

38. I'm sorry...

But one dead bird in Sweden does not make it endemic in Sweden. To be endemic, something has to have settled in, with repeated outbreaks over a long period of time. Seeing as how it has only appeard in western Europe in the last three weeks, it by definition cannot be considered endemic yet there.

I do have a link to the 1997 case...and as with my other post will send it your way when I get home


A simple google search will reveal the recent cases in South Korea

[Media_Lies_Daily]

41. Hey....if you can claim people becoming infected without any....

...noticable symptoms, then one dead bird may be the tip of the iceberg of infected birds in Sweden. Birds can be infected and still do their normal things before dropping dead and being analyzed.

[SaveElmer]

45. I made no such claim...

I merely said the actual number of infected was unknown, and there was actual evidence pointing to a wider population of infected who had mild or no symptoms. You are claiming the disease is endemic after three weeks, based on an assumption.

[CAcyclist]

26. Thank you for the reality check

I hadn't been aware of that recent research. I'll have to check out the LA Times more now that the SF Chronicle is a shadow of its former self.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

30. I think I'll stick with the analyses of Dr. Henry Niman....

...and I'll bet he's done far more work on the current Avian Flu variants than most anyone else.

[SaveElmer]

32. Niman is extremely controversial...

Many experts do not take him seriously

[Media_Lies_Daily]

35. Can you name any of these "experts"? Have any of those....

..."experts" gone on the record publicly stating that Dr. Niman and his work is not taken seriously? Do you have any links?

By the way, historically speaking, quite a few scientists have been branded as "controversial" over the past few centuries, but they turned out to be correct in their fields of study. Galileo and DaVinci are pretty good examples, wouldn't you agree?

[SaveElmer]

37. I do...and I will post them when I get home...

But he has been saying since 2004 that there is already H2H transmission. He claims that the Iraqi man who was recently diagnosed with it was one such case based only on the timing of the announcement. He claims WHO has been hiding cases of H2H transmission. None of it supported by actual evidence.

Those scientists were exceptions. Think of the large number of phrenologists, craniologists, and other assorted "scientists" who made outlandish claims, but were taken seriously in their time!

[SaveElmer]

46. Some links...

"(Niman's) just been making claims that everyone else has got it wrong, and that may be true, but I can't tell because he hasn't published a peer-review paper," said Rob Carlson, a senior associate at Bio Economic Research Associates based in Cambridge, Mass., who studies avian influenza.

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/search/s_389125.html

The basis of Niman's thesis is that portions of genes are combining with pieces of genes from mammals, and this has already created an H2H version of the flu...the CDC disagrees

The phylogenies of the 8 genomic segments from the clade 1 and 2 isolates from 2004–2005 showed that all genes are of avian origin. All H5N1 isolates from both clades belong to 1 of the genotypes recently circulating in Eastern and Southern Asia, e.g., genotypes V and Z (1,37). The influenza virus genome has remarkable plasticity because of a high mutation rate and its segmentation into 8 separate RNA molecules. This segmentation allows frequent genetic exchange by segment reassortment in hosts co-infected with 2 different influenza viruses. No evidence has been seen that the 2004–2005 H5N1 isolates have acquired nonavian influenza genes by reassortment.

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/eid/vol11no10/05-0644.htm

I have more, but I have an appointment...will post them later in the evening

[Karmakaze]

48. He's a quack...

He has been wrong about EVERY prediction he has ever made in regards to Bird Flu.

[AngryAmish]

57. 1918 was so deadly because of the technology of the time

First of all, forgive my ignorance on this issue. I am not a medical professional but I have some familiarity with medicine.

Anyway, I have been told that 1918 was so deadly because it immune response filled (human) lungs with fluid real fast, either suffocating the patient or causing a general bacteremia that killed the patient. Well, any pneumonia patient gets full spectrum antibiotics so the pneumonia is not so deadly nowadays. And we have ventilators (if folks can get to them) that can force air into folks.

My 2 cents.

[NickB79]

58. Ventilators would be in short supply in a true pandemic

As would pretty much any medical device required to treat infected patients. If only 1% of the US population were to require ventilator support, that is 3 million people (in addition to those requiring respirators for other diseases).

I am no medical professional myself, but wouldn't forcing air into lungs filled with fluid be pointless?

[SaveElmer]

61. A couple things...

First you are correct about the character of the disease. What is most important though, is how it bacame so virulent. There is debate over that, but I am persuaded by the evolutionary argument that a virulent form was able to spread among the immobilized populations at the western front during WWI.

As to treatment, if it ever did go pandemic, the earlier the better. The sooner someone isdiagnosed, the less resources will be required to treat them.

[Mojorabbit]

62. Antibiotics won't be of much use

The people dying are dying of viral pneumonia and antibiotics are of no use. There is always the chance of bacterial pneumonia setting in if you survive long enough but it is not being seen now.

[WinkyDink]

34. What do you suggest we do? Take what precautions? Cower?

So I take it seriously. Then what?
Nothing. That's what.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

36. Whatever you say. Do whatever winds your clock.

[Mojorabbit]

49. If you take it seriously

You need to lay in a couple of months of supplies. The govts pandemic website encourages it. Sec. Levitt has been traveling the country telling the states they will be on their own if it happens and a lot of states are telling their cities the same. Not much money is being sent to the states to prepare.
There is a lot of good info out there on what little we can do.
A lot of good links at Flu wiki.

An example of what they are telling states all over the us
Threat of avian flu prompts call for preparedness

By Molly Albertson
Cape Gazette staff
A statewide summit about a possible pandemic has left locals squawking about bird flu.


Federal officials on a nationwide awareness tour urged communities to prepare in advance for worst-case scenarios, including a possible six-week quarantine, if avian flu becomes a virus transmitted from person to person.


“You need to do this now. You need a plan and a strategy for preparedness,” said Alfonso Martinez-Fonts Jr., special assistant to the secretary for the private sector of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.


Small communities and even neighborhoods need to organize, officials said, because if a pandemic strikes, many people will be confined to their homes. Under quarantine, people will have no way to get to hospitals, grocery stores or town centers, officials said at the Feb. 21 meeting in Dover.
http://www.capegazette.com/storiescurrent/0206/avianfluthreat022406.html

[megatherium]

19. The next pandemic influenza could originate in North America.

We have enormous concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs); these involve hundreds of thousands of animals (pigs, e.g.) confined in crowded and unsanitary conditions. If you've been wondering why available influenza anti-virals are losing their effectiveness, it is because of the promiscuous prophylactic use of them in CAFOs world-wide. See the new Mike Davis book, Monster At Our Door: The Global Threat of Avian Flu.

Our system of animal production is unholy. It is cruel, it is bad for the environment -- and it is threatening our lives.

[Media_Lies_Daily]

40. There is considerable evidence that the 1918 Pandemic....

...actually began in Kansas and spread outwards with American troops going overseas to the front lines...and then it came back through our port cities. New York City stopped counting their dead at 33,000, and the pandemic wasn't even half over. Philadelphia resorted to burying their dead in trenches when they ran out of coffins, and priests actually rode wagons through the neighborhoods telling people to bring out their dead. Bet you thought that kind of stuff only took place during the Black Plague of the Dark Ages in Europe.

Here's another book to read:

The Great Influenza, by John M. Barry. It is very informative.

[SaveElmer]

44. There is also evidence...

That the flu was initially comparitively mild, and didn't gain its virulence until it began to spread among the immobilized troops at the western front.

[NickB79]

20. Hmmm, millions in Africa with an immune system weakened by HIV

Malaria, malnutrition, etc. Yeah, I could see H5N1 gaining a foothold in Africa first before spreading outwards.

[Chico Man]

52. I've heard rumors that the weakened immune systems (HIV, etc) will help

H5N1 to mutate.. not sure if it's correct or not.

[kestrel91316]

54. I am REALLY hoping that this does not become a trend................

because I am a CAT VET. I own a CAT HOSPITAL, and CATS are my lifeblood.

All I need to utterly destroy my life's work is for this thing to get going in domestic cats, and thereby threaten my clients' lives (and me and my staff, too).

The very idea of H5N1 getting into the cat population gives me serious chills, and may keep me up sleepless tonight.

[Mojorabbit]

63. Kestral

These are for you
French Cat Owners Starting To Abandon Their Pets
Article Date: 01 Mar 2006 - 15:00pm (UK)

The Animal Protection Society in France is concerned that some pet owners are starting to abandon their cats in fear of catching bird flu from them. This is after a bird flu infected dead cat was found in an island off northern Germany. The German cat was infected with the lethal H5N1 bird flu virus strain.

The Animal Protection Society (France) is being inundated with calls from cat owners, wondering what to do with their pets. A spokesman for the society said the panic has started.

In France, bird flu was found in a Turkey farm near Lyon.

Cat owners worry more than dog owners because you can keep a dog on a lead (leash) when you go out - therefore, you have more control on what it touches or eats when outside. Cats, on the other hand, are enthusiastic bird hunters and eaters, that roam their neighbourhoods on their own.

Written by: Christian Nordqvist
Editor: Medical News Today

and
http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/story.asp?j=174470956&p=y7447y66z
German officials today ordered cats kept indoors and dogs on a lead in areas where wild birds infected with bird flu have been found.
The move came a day after a federal lab announced that a cat found dead on the Baltic Sea island of Ruegen tested positive for the H5N1 strain of the disease - making it the first infected mammal in the European Union.

Gerd Lindemann, the deputy agriculture minister, said the states that had found sick birds would immediately implement the order, which will apply to cats and dogs in a 2-mile radius of bird cases.
and

How to tell if your cat is infected
(Filed: 01/03/2006)

The symptoms of bird flu in cats were first recorded by scientists investigating how the pets could contract the virus.

The cats soon showed signs of disease - raised body temperature, decreased activity, protrusion of the third eyelid, conjuctivitis and laboured breathing. All developed severe lung disease.

Dr Thijs Kuiken, a veterinary pathologist at the Erasmus Medical Centre in Rotterdam, introduced the H5N1 virus into the airways of three cats. Three other cats were fed an infected chick.

Two other cats were exposed to the virus by being placed in the same cage as the first three cats. One cat died after six days of infection.

In their research, published in Science in September 2004, Dr Kuiken warned that the role of cats in the spread of H5N1 virus needed to be reassessed and said that "cats may form an opportunity for this avian virus to adapt to mammals, thereby increasing the risk of a human influenza pandemic."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/mai.../ixnewstop.html

[kestrel91316]

67. I've got just ONE THING to say to cat owners in the US in case

H5N1 hits the US and the wild birds pose a threat to our kitties: it will be your duty as a citizen to KEEP YOUR CATS 100% INDOORS!! No more whining about how they need to be "free" and how it's unnatural to confine them. If they are at risk of H5N1, and pose a potential threat to humans because of it, people who would let them roam knowing that fact would be guilty of attempted homicide of their neighbors, IMHO.

There will only be ONE responsible choice, and abandonment isn't it. This has the potential to be a NASTY public health debacle.

Time for me to consider stocking up on euthanasia solution, I'm afraid.

[Trillo]

59. First they came for the chickens ...

And then they came for the cats....

[Theres-a]

60. Stop!

:rofl: Seriously,this birdflu thing seems like it could really turn ino a clusterf***,when you consider how unprepared for anything our gubmint is.We're on our own.:(

[Psephos]

64. I don't know why anyone would ever depend on the government

and I don't just mean the current clown-wagon administration. Seriously, why should/would the government take better care of you than you take care of you? Practically speaking, you have a lot more incentive than some bureaucrat, and that will never change.

Peace.

[kestrel91316]

68. Yeah, public health officials never did anybody any good at all...........

what a waste of money and oxygen they are........:sarcasm:

[Psephos]

69. Nice try, but I neither said nor implied anything of the kind

I'll never understand what motivates strawman fantasy posts and their predictable faux indignation. Here's the deal: I'll put my words in my mouth, you put your words in your mouth. Got it?

For anyone else, my point is that no one is more motivated to tend to your needs than you, and although government can be a tremendous resource, it can also be a bureaucratic hall of mirrors. Which will it be when you need it most? Murphy's Law suggests the answer.

Peace.