Analysts Say a Nuclear Iran Is Years Away

[cal04]

Experts said that Tehran lacks the skills, materials and equipment to make good on its immediate nuclear goals.
Western nuclear analysts said yesterday that Tehran lacked the skills, materials and equipment to make good on its immediate nuclear ambitions, even as a senior Iranian official said Iran would defy international pressure and rapidly expand its ability to enrich uranium for fuel.

The official, Muhammad Saeedi, the deputy head of Iran's atomic energy organization, said Iran would push quickly to put 54,000 centrifuges on line — a vast increase from the 164 they said Tuesday that they had used to enrich uranium to levels that could fuel a nuclear reactor. Still, nuclear analysts called the claims exaggerated. They said nothing had changed to alter current estimates of when Iran might be able to make a single nuclear weapon, assuming that is its ultimate goal. The United States government has put that at 5 to 10 years, and some analysts have said it could come as late as 2020.

Iran's announcement brought criticism from several Western Nations and to a lesser degree from Russia and China. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called for "strong steps" against Iran, using the country's clear statement of defiance to persuade reluctant countries like Russia and China to support tough international penalties. But Russian officials said they had not changed their opposition to such penalties. Nuclear analysts said Iran's boast that it had enriched uranium using 164 centrifuges meant that it had now moved one small but significant step beyond what it had been ready to do nearly three years ago, when it agreed to suspend enrichment while negotiating the fate of its nuclear program.

"They're hyping it," said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, a private group that monitors the Iranian nuclear program. "There's still a lot they have to do." Anthony H. Cordesman and Khalid R. al-Rodhan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington called the new Iranian claims "little more than vacuous political posturing" meant to promote Iranian nationalism and a global sense of atomic inevitability.

more
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/13/world/middleeast/13iran.html?hp&ex=1144900800&en=8ebc961125dcd4f7&ei=5094&partner=homepage

[Kutjara]

1. Haven't you been paying attention?

BushCo says Iran can nuke us in 16 days. 16 Days! If BushCo says 16 days then that's as good as hearing it from God Himself.

Just like when they said that Sadaam could launch his bioScuds in 40 minutes. We all doubted it, but it turned out to be totally true. Oh, wait. Hang on a minute. It didn't, did it?

Never mind.

[khair75092]

2. That's like Iraq having WMD'S!!!!

[redirish28]

3. As my wife reminded me..In our are we will have Primary elections in May.

Could they be testing the waters to see how people will vote if they try and play the fear card again?


Could it be a hint that they are strongly thinking of doing it before the November election?

[Canadian_NewDemocrat]

4. thing that disturbs me

is suppose some day there is a REAL legitimate threat out there, no one will take Bush seriously...President who cried Wolf.

[54anickel]

5. That's the beauty of pre-emptive war - It does f'ing matter!

10 days, 10 years, 100 years - We gotta blow 'em up before they ever get started. Next on the list will be anyone even THINKING about creating nuclear weapons that's not on the Friends of Bush list.

Pre-emptive war - what a beautiful idea --- NOT. :argh:

[onehandle]

6. Iran has Nukes and Missiles RIGHT NOW!

No, wait...that's North Korea.

Now, what's the hurry?