In the Midwest, a GOP Opportunity (Iowa Gov race)

[brooklynite]

By ALAN GREENBLATT
Governing.com

The Midwest offers Republicans their best chance to gain governorships this year. Iowa, where Democratic Gov. Tom Vilsack is stepping down after two terms, may be first on the GOP opportunity list. “A Republican pickup seems more likely here than a whole lot of other places,” says Arthur Sanders, a political scientist at Drake University in Des Moines. “Republicans nationally are likely to throw some money in.”

But it is far from clear that those hopes will be realized. The state leans Republican, but not by much. The state Senate is evenly divided between the parties, while the GOP holds a precarious two-seat lead in the state House.

Eight-term Congressman Jim Nussle, the Republican gubernatorial candidate, was given a free ride in February when Bob Vander Plaats, who had run for governor unsuccessfully in 2002, dropped out of the race. Vander Plaats became Nussle’s running mate, offering some geographic and ideological balance to the ticket. Vander Plaats comes from Sheldon, in the rural northwest corner of the state, while Nussle represents Waterloo and Dubuque, in the more urbanized east.

Things are less certain on the Democratic side, where Chet Culver, the secretary of state, and Mike Blouin, Iowa’s former economic development director, lead a field of six candidates. If no one receives better than 35 percent of the June 6 primary vote, county delegates will pick the nominee at the state party convention.

http://www.governing.com/news/5iowa.htm