STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 10 July

[ozymandius]

Monday July 10, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 926 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2025 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1725 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1686
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 7, 2006

Dow... 11,090.67 -134.63 (-1.20%)
Nasdaq... 2,130.06 -25.03 (-1.16%)
S&P 500... 1,265.48 -8.60 (-0.67%)
Gold future... 634.80 -1.50 (-0.24%)
30-Year Bond 5.17% -0.05 (-1.00%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.13% -0.05 (-1.02%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Dogs of the Dow and the Top Ten Index

The “Dogs of the Dow” is a subset of the Dow Jones Industrials. This subset is a portfolio of such that is selected every year and is based on the Ten dividend yielding stocks within the Dow 30 as of January 1st of each year.

-cut-

Below I have plotted the Dow Jones Industrial Average in the upper window and the Dow Jones Top Ten Index, which is an index that approximates the Dogs of the Dow in the lower window. These charts are as of the close on July 7, 2006. The last time we looked at the Dogs of the Dow there were some long-term non-confirmations in place that had been in existence since 2004. This long-term non-confirmation has since been corrected because on July 3, 2006 the Dow Jones Top Ten Index bettered its December 23, 2004 high. As a result of this move, the Top Ten Index has now reconfirmed its Secondary Trend as being bullish. Therefore, on a Secondary level the Top Ten Index is now in sync with the Secondary Trend of the Industrials, which turned positive in January.

But yes, it seems that there is always a “But” involved and here the but is that now we have a short-term non-confirmation in place. As you can see on the chart below, the July advance carried the Top Ten Index to new recovery highs when the May high was exceeded and again, that is great because the Secondary Trend is now positive on both indexes. The “But” is that the Industrials have thus far not bettered their May highs. Therefore, this leaves us with the Secondary Trend of both indexes positive, “but” we now have a short-term divergence in place. If the Industrials can better their May highs the short-term will be back in gear with the intermediate to long-term Secondary Trend. Until such time, I can only view this short-term non-confirmation cautiously, because after all, this non-confirmation is telling us that at least one-third of the Industrials are not being confirmed.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

10:00 AM Wholesale Inventories May
Briefing Forecast 0.6%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.9%

3:00 PM Consumer Credit May
Briefing Forecast $5.5B
Market Expects $3.2B
Prior $10.6B

[UpInArms]

35. May Wholesale Inventories up 0.8% - April rev'd up to 1.3%

10:00 AM ET 7/10/06 U.S. MAY NONDURABLE INVENTORY-SALES RATIO RECORD LOW 0.83

10:00 AM ET 7/10/06 U.S. APRIL WHOLESALE INVENTORIES REVISED TO 1.3% VS. 0.9%

10:00 AM ET 7/10/06 U.S. MAY INVENTORY-SALES RATIO FALLS TO RECORD-LOW 1.15

10:00 AM ET 7/10/06 U.S. MAY WHOLESALE SALES UP 1.6%

10:00 AM ET 7/10/06 U.S. MAY WHOLESALE INVENTORIES UP 0.8% VS. 0.6% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BFEE4EA9D%2D9F42%2D4E9B%2DBC51%2D5D1B7624C755%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose 0.8% in May while sales increased 1.6%, the Commerce Department said Monday.

The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to a record-low 1.15 in May. The typical wholesaler has about 35 days of sales on hand.

The increase in inventories was slightly higher than the 0.6% predicted by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Inventories had increased a revised 1.3% in April, up from 0.9% originally estimated.

Inventories are up 7.8% in the past year. Sales are up 12.1% in the past year.

The wholesale inventory report rarely affects financial markets. It is of interest primarily to economists tweaking their estimates for gross domestic product. The Commerce Department will finalize its estimates for business sales and inventories on Friday with the release of the retail inventory data.

...more...

[UpInArms]

49. U.S. wholesale inventories up 0.8% in May

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC5031D81%2D8F90%2D495C%2D8ED4%2D8B967FB3F94D%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inventories at U.S. wholesalers rose 0.8% in May while sales increased 1.6%, the Commerce Department said Monday. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to a record-low 1.15 in May. The typical wholesaler has about 35 days of sales on hand. The increase in inventories was slightly higher than the 0.6% predicted by economists. Inventories had increased a revised 1.3% in April. Wholesale inventories of durable goods increased 0.8% while sales rose 2.6%. The durables inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.48 from 1.51 in April. Wholesale inventories of nondurable goods increased 0.9% in May while sales increased 0.7%. The nondurables inventory-to-sales ratio fell to a record-low 0.83 from 0.85.

[UpInArms]

75. U.S. May consumer credit rises $4.4 billion, or 2.4%

3:00 PM ET 7/10/06 U.S. MAY NONREVOLVING CREDIT FALLS $2.2 BILLION, OR 2%

3:00 PM ET 7/10/06 U.S. MAY REVOLVING CREDIT RISES $6.7 BILLION, OR 10%

3:00 PM ET 7/10/06 U.S. MAY CONSUMER CREDIT RISES $4.4 BILLION, OR 2.4%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BEA95E593%2DFFAF%2D4947%2DA3AE%2DBAB664A20B46%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumers took on a bigger-than-expected $4.4 billion more in debt in May, the Federal Reserve said, mostly in revolving debt like credit cards. U.S. borrowers pushed up overall outstanding consumer credit by 2.4%, or $4.4 billion, to $2.173 trillion, the Fed said Monday. Credit cards and other forms of revolving debt jacked up the overall number. U.S. consumers added $6.7 billion in revolving debt in May, up 10% from the prior month to a total of $812 billion. Nonrevolving debt like automobile loans, meanwhile, fell by 2%, or $2.2 billion, to $1.36 trillion.

[Roland99]

85. Big purchases dropping (or 2nd mortgages drying up) and using more plastic

WHEEEE!!!

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices fall below $74 a barrel

SINGAPORE - Crude oil prices retreated Monday as traders took profits following recent gains and amid easing worries about Iran's nuclear dispute after the country's top nuclear negotiator expressed optimism that the standoff can be resolved peacefully.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell 37 cents to $73.72 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The drop came after oil prices had climbed for most of the last two weeks, reaching an intraday record of $75.78 a barrel on Friday before settling back at $74.09.

-cut-

"The drop in prices is more about profit-taking than anything else," said Tobin Gorey, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney. "We're in the midst of the hurricane season, it would take a lot of courage for anyone to go seriously short now."

more

[ozymandius]

4. EU dangles rewards as Russia eyes G8 energy pact

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - As Russia edges toward agreement on energy principles with Group of Eight leaders, the European Union is offering several rewards: cash, technology and access to a huge consumer market that is hungry for oil and gas.

Moscow has resisted calls to ratify an international treaty that promotes price transparency and free energy transit across the Eurasian continent, but is likely to endorse many of those ideas at the G8 summit of industrialized nations on July 15-17.

So what will Moscow get in return for a step that could lead someday to a loosening of its monopoly on pipelines and clearer rules on investment in its prized energy sector?

-cut-

Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the Kremlin would only allow Europe greater access to its energy sector if Russian companies are allowed into European markets in exchange.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Gas prices up nearly 11 cents in 2 weeks

CAMARILLO, Calif. - U.S. gas prices jumped nearly 11 cents per gallon in the past two weeks with the national average for self-serve regular just shy of $3 a gallon, according to a survey released Sunday.

The average price for the grade was $2.995 per gallon Friday, up 10.73 cents in two weeks, according to the Lundberg Survey of 7,000 gas stations across the country. The price was less than 2 cents below the all-time high of $3.01 set Sept. 9, analyst Trilby Lundberg said.

short blurb

[JNelson6563]

11. 3.08 a gallon here in northern MI

It's ridiculous.

[Paulie]

27. Paid $3.25 at my local Citgo

South suburban cook county, IL (Chicagoland).

Good thing it's a weeks worth of gas in the Prius with my 72mi round trip commute for work.

[Doctor_J]

37. $3.17 in DuPage Co yesterday

highest yet. I am hearing $3.45 by Aug 1

[Roland99]

66. Down to $2.95 in parts of Louisville, KY... $2.59 in parts of Columbia, SC

[54anickel]

33. Asia going nuclear amid rising oil prices

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060709/ap_on_bi_ge/asia_nuclear_renaissance;_ylt=AnolLFxKOgmJpg2LHUm33JyyBhIF;_ylu=X3oDMTA2Z2szazkxBHNlYwN0bQ--

ULSAN, South Korea - Led by fast-growing China and India, Asia is going nuclear in a big way to feed its ravenous appetite for energy.

The strains of economic growth are already showing. Energy shortages have forced Chinese factories to scale back production, and farmers in India often have power for only half the day. Both countries say their future growth is at risk unless they diversify their energy mix.

So does South Korea, where Yoon Ho-taek scans a construction site the size of 10 football fields in the southeastern city of Ulsan, points to what looks like a partly built amphitheater, and declares: "The future of nuclear power is bright."

South Korea, the world's second biggest coal importer and third biggest oil importer, already depends on nuclear reactors for 40 percent of its power and is talking of increasing that to 60 percent by 2035.

Yoon's company, Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power, is building four reactors and plans four more by 2017. Two of them are 1,000-megawatt reactors going up in Ulsan, lighting as many as 2.4 million homes in South Korea's industrial heartland.

Along with homemade reactors, Asia's plans hold out the promise of a bonanza for American companies such as Westinghouse Electric Co. and General Electric Co. which already have a strong presence in the region. Westinghouse has helped build 14 nuclear plants in South Korea and provided technology for almost half of Japan's 55 nuclear units. GE, meanwhile, has helped build 36 reactors in Japan, India and Taiwan.

more...

[WhiteTara]

57. I've really had my head in the sand about

the number of nuke plants in the world. THis is not so good. Before building new plants though, they should check with Britian, theirs are crumbling and they're not sure what to do.

Where are the true visionaries? The ones who can see farther than their next paycheck.

[Ghost Dog]

70. The Brits are not a very representative sample:

On account of the environmentalist moratorium (on new power stations) since the seventies (except the hugely loss-making reprocessing business at Sellafield);

And because they've been concentrating on extracting the maximum benefit from existing plant without investing sufficiently even in maintenance.

Look, rather at little Alpine Switzerland: 80% of its electrical energy, I believe, is nuclear; the remaining 20% is almost entirely hydro-electric (those Alpine streams). Plenty of efficient (and much-used) railways, trams and other environmentally-sensitive public transport. Very calm and civilised road traffic (and severely constrained highway and other road development). Ok, it's a small country. A step up in scale would be not-so-disimilar France...

Though I hate to say it, safe-as-possible nuclear electricity has to be, at least temporarily, the way to go for many societies. But the security must be very tight, and that safe waste-disposal, baring the fusion solution, will be very expensive to do properly. And then, there's the non-proliferation (of nuclear weapons) issue...

[UpInArms]

46. August Crude @ $73.70 bbl - August NatGas @ $5.61 mln btus

10:02 AM ET 7/10/06 AUGUST CRUDE FALLS 39 CENTS TO $73.70/BRL IN EARLY TRADING

10:02 AM ET 7/10/06 AUGUST NATURAL GAS UP 8.7 CENTS AT $5.61/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

74. August Crude closes @ $73.61 bbl - NatGas @ $5.615 mln btus

2:55 PM ET 7/10/06 AUGUST CRUDE TALLIES A THREE-SESSION LOSS OF $1.58/BRL

2:55 PM ET 7/10/06 AUGUST CRUDE ENDS AT $73.61/BRL, DOWN 48 CENTS FOR THE DAY

2:52 PM ET 7/10/06 AUGUST NATURAL GAS ENDS HIGHER FOR FIRST TIME IN 7 SESSIONS

2:52 PM ET 7/10/06 AUGUST NATURAL GAS UP 9.2 CENTS TO CLOSE AT $5.615/MLN BTUS

[ozymandius]

6. Preview: BoJ set to end zero interest rates

Interest rate rise fever will continue to grip global markets this week, with speculation growing that the Bank of Japan could finally end its zero interest rate policy when it begins a two-day meeting on Thursday.

Before that - perhaps the climax of the week - the Bank of Canada meets, the European Central Bank puts out its monthly bulletin and a raft of economic data will continue to feed global speculation about rate rises.

The UK starts the week on Monday with June producer price data. The focus will be on whether there are signs that consistently high input prices are feeding through into output costs and from there into wider inflation measures.

more

[Ghost Dog]

31. Thanks for the continuing news, folks.

(Including international).

Sorry I'm too busy with domestic health crisis and some more local politics to be able to help right now.

Sayonara :hi:

[54anickel]

36. Take good care GD. Hope to see you back soon. eom

[ozymandius]

7. Bourses start week lower as oils slip

Europe's bourses started the week weakly on Monday after Wall Street ended Friday weaker and the dollar dropped to a one-month low against the yen.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 was fell 0.4 percent to 1,311.83 with the Xetra Dax in Frankfurt down 0.6 per cent to 5,646.27, the CAC-40 in Paris 0.6 per cent down at 4,924.95 and the FTSE 100 in London 0.3 per cent off at 5,870.9.

-cut-

US stocks finished last week lower as investors grew uneasy over record high oil prices, rising labour costs and signs of economic softening.

Economic data out on Friday showed that the US economy created 121,000 jobs in June, fewer than had been expected. This sign of slowing economic growth was accompanied by higher than expected wage inflation data.

more

[ozymandius]

8. Earnings could bring Wall Street relief

NEW YORK - The second-quarter earnings season has finally arrived, giving Wall Street something else to think about besides economic reports and interest rates.

Investors expect yet another round of outstanding profit reports, with Dow Jones industrials Alcoa Inc. and General Electric Co. opening the season this week. Companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index have posted 16 consecutive quarters of double-digit earnings growth, a pattern analysts believe is likely to continue.

"One thing we know about this economy is that the corporate sector is in great shape," said Brian Gendreau, investment strategist for ING Investment Management.

But much of those expectations may have already been priced into the market, analysts say. With little economic data this week to offer guidance on the Federal Reserve's plan for interest rates, favorable earnings reports will support stocks but may not be enough to push them higher.

more

[Roland99]

13. A different sort of Two Americas

The rise in tax revenues appears to have been largely based on corporate tax revenues (despite a general trend downward in tax rates for corporations). That means corporate profits are soaring (something like an average of 28% higher over the last year?)

At the same time, another large portion is coming from taxes on executive salaries and capital gains taxes on equities.

The investor class is kicking ass while the rest of America is struggling to put gas in their tanks, pay their medical co-pays, and put their kids through school and meet the mortgage(s).

[54anickel]

39. Well-Paid Benefit Most As Economy Flourishes

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/09/AR2006070900914.html

Wages are rising more than twice as fast for highly paid workers in the Washington area as they are for low-paid workers, an analysis of federal data by The Washington Post shows.

That means the spoils of the region's economic expansion are going disproportionately to workers who are already well-paid, widening a gap between rich and poor in a place where it is already wider than in most of the country.

Businesspeople cite shifts in the world economy that give educated workers leverage to negotiate for higher wages but make low-paid workers replaceable -- a disparity that is especially pronounced in a service economy like Washington's.

The region's economy is strong and businesses are expanding, hiring more software engineers, financial analysts, salespeople and other skilled workers, thus bidding up their pay. But companies are simultaneously finding ways to automate clerical tasks, move call centers to cheaper places and handle business online, weakening demand for less-skilled workers.

snip>

When demand for even a few types of low-wage jobs goes soft, wages can be held down in all of them, economists say. That's because a worker qualified to be a retail clerk might just as well become a security guard or receptionist. That means, in effect, that all low-wage workers are competing with one another, a sharp contrast with more specialized jobs.

more...

Seems to me that "less-skilled worker" label is quickly climbing up the ladder.

[Roland99]

47. Almost gives them fodder to keep certain % of population uneducated

[ozymandius]

9. GM Bonds Rally on Potential for Alliance With Renault, Nissan

July 10 (Bloomberg) -- The bond market already has voted ``yes'' to the proposed alliance between General Motors Corp., Renault SA and Nissan Motor Co.

GM's 8.375 percent debentures due in 2033 have returned 4.19 percent since June 29, the day before Kirk Kerkorian successfully lobbied the board to authorize Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner to study working with Tokyo-based Nissan and Boulogne-Billancourt, France-based Renault to help save on development and production costs. GM lost $10.6 billion in 2005.

``GM seems to be more on the offensive,'' said Jim Cusser, who manages about $1.5 billion in fixed-income securities at Waddell & Reed Inc. in Overland Park, Kansas. Cusser's fund owns $7 million of 5.125 percent notes due in 2008 issued by the Detroit-based automaker's finance unit.

Bonds of the world's biggest carmaker are outperforming other auto company debt, which returned 1.76 percent since June 29, according to an index compiled by Merrill Lynch & Co. GM accounts for about 40 percent of the index.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=asJkYaQwFVK0&refer=us

[JNelson6563]

12. Let's hope they ride the clue bus too

Sure and alliance can be helpful but at over 3.00 a gallon I sure hope they consider investing more in smaller models.

Julie

[UpInArms]

17. Slim benefits to GM-Renault-Nissan alliance: analysts

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060709/bs_afp/usautocompanygm

DETROIT, United States (AFP) - The short term benefits of linking up General Motors Corp. with Renault-Nissan could be slim for all three companies, analysts said, after GM announced Friday it would explore the possibility of joining the French-Japanese alliance.

Over the next 18 to 24 months it is hard to see how either group could benefit from linking up, said Mike Robinet, an analyst with CSM Worldwide Inc.

"Longer term, you might get some benefits if they start to work together on a project by project basis," he told AFP. "The benefits would start to accrue only after a number of products are being replaced because they could work together."

Creating a smooth working relationship among the two huge global enterprises could prove difficult given their sharply different cultures, Robinet said. GM is unlikely to be as willing as Nissan to take orders from France as it is not in the same weakened position that Nissan was when it joined the alliance in 1999.

<snip>

Both are suffering from declining sales in the critical US market, with GM's sales down 26 percent and Nissan's off 19 percent in June.

...more...

[ozymandius]

10. World Bank urges global trade breakthrough at G8

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Global trade talks are on the cusp of collapse and leaders of the world's most powerful industrialized and developing countries must break the impasse at a summit in Russia next week, World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz wrote in a letter to each leader.

"With time running out, our collective efforts can make the difference," he said in a letter sent on Friday to leaders of the Group of Eight rich industrialized nations and five major developing economies due to meet in St. Petersburg on July 17.

The meeting of leaders from the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain, France, Italy, Canada and Russia comes two weeks after trade ministers met in Geneva but failed to resolve any differences over farm and industrial goods which, along with services, make up the three pillars of the talks.

"We can work to lift millions from poverty, boost developing country income, improve global market access and reduce taxpayer and consumer costs for all, or allow the whole effort to collapse, with harm to everyone," Wolfowitz wrote.

more

[UpInArms]

14. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.33 Change +0.28 (+0.33%)

Dollar Doesn't Dive

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/trade_or_fade/Dollar_Doesn_t_Dive_1152505585604.html

Let’s see. What if you were told at the start of last week that both ISMs (Manufacturing and Non) and the NFPs would all fail to meet expectations. In fact, all three would print materially lower that forecast. Would you expect for the dollar to only lose 20bp for the whole week? Most probably not. The data suggested that the dollar weakness should have been more pronounced and the fact that it was not was the most interesting aspect of trading in the currency market last week. What’s keeping the bid in the greenback? Inflationary expectations. This Friday’s NFP’s, which at 121K, came in much weaker than the pre-release anticipation of 200K did not diminish the possibility of yet another 25bp hike from the Fed in August. Why? Because average hourly earnings jumped from 0.1% to 0.5% suggesting that upward pressure on wages will keep the Fed hawkish despite lackluster employment numbers. Indeed, the night prior to the release the Fed’s Vice Chairman Donald Kohn argued that officials were aware of the risks of over tightening policy but were even more aware of the dangers of the letting inflation get out of control, essentially telegraphing to the market that when it comes to inflation the Fed will err on the side of caution and will continue to hike.

Next week theUS economic calendar is quite limited with only the Trade Balance, Retail Sales and U of M Confidence survey on the schedule. The Trade Balance numbers present a very interesting study of event risk as the number could be extremely bearish if the recent spike in oil pushes the overall deficit towards the $70 Billion mark or relatively benign if US exports, fueled by the lower dollar offset the effects of importing so much crude. Retail Sales will be the other key data point for traders. If they print as expected rising 0.5% the Fed will have more leeway in tightening monetary policy further, having peace of mind that the US consumer remains strong.



...more...

US Dollar Corrects Losses

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/US_Dollar_Corrects_Losses_1152529307804.html

EUR/USD –EUR/USD rallied past the 7/5 high of 1.2836 to 1.2859 to possibly complete 5 waves up from 1.2481. If this is the case, then price could be headed to the confluence of the 7/5 low / 38.2% fibo of 1.2481-1.2859 at 1.2705/15. However, previous intraday support at 1.2765 is reinforced by the 61.8% fibo of 1.2705-1.2859 at 1.2764 and a bounce off of that level could propel price back to the 1.2859 high to form a double top.

<snip>

USD/JPY –The 114.10 objective was met and exceeded. The pair currently trades right at the 38.2% fibo of 108.96-116.65 at 113.76. If price can hold above this level on a daily closing basis, then a retrace of the weakness to today’s 113.44 low would probe the 38.2% fibo of 115.77-113.44 at 114.33. With the bullish divergence on the hourly (with oscillators), the upside is favored in the short term. However, Friday’s decline completed a head and shoulders reversal pattern as the pair broke through the neckline at around 113.90. The longer term bearish view is bolstered by the 10 day SMA crossing below the 20 day SMA.

<snip>

USD/CAD –“Reinforcing the bullish bias is the 7/5 bullish engulfing outside day at the supporting trendline (from the ascending triangle)” was Friday’s commentary and USD/CAD has since taken off and the pair now probes resistance at the 78.6% fibo of 1.1283-1.1038 at 1.1230. The series of daily highs from 1.1232-1.1283 is just above and may could bullish efforts. The bias remains bullish as the pair trades within the ascending triangle that began in mid May. A break above the 6/23 high at 1.1283 argues for a test of the 50% fibo of 1.1771-1.0927 at 1.1349. Former resistance from the 7/7 high at 1.1152 is now support.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. Commentary: Paulson needs a strong buck

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/FZsSjFqbxrsS3VdmPHfbRK?dist=RNPullDown&symbol=&siteid=mktw

excerpt:

Also on Monday, the new Treasury secretary will be sworn in. Silent since being OK'd by Congress, the administration will once again have a voice on the U.S. dollar.

Given that first impressions last the longest, I believe Paulson will do his best to make sure that the financial markets believe him when he says a strong dollar is in the best interest of the U.S.

The thing I've noticed about dollar policy over the years is that the mantra doesn't change, but the implied meaning has. And whatever the administration's unspoken policy is depends on what best suits it at the moment. Read more.

After the turn of the millennium, when the Federal Reserve and the White House were both fighting to protect against deflation, a weaker dollar was good for the U.S.
A falling greenback helps reflate the economy by making imported goods more expensive. A weak buck also boosts profits of multinational companies, which in turn helps stocks.

At the present, however, the financial markets and the Fed are more worried about inflation. A weak dollar also exacerbates concerns that foreign central banks, long seen as the reason for relatively low long-term bond yields, are diversifying their foreign currency reserves and are cutting back their participation in Treasury auctions.

...more...

[UpInArms]

54. Puke Alert: Paulson pledges strong, flexible, open U.S. economy

11:00 AM ET 7/10/06 PAULSON PLEDGES STRONG, FLEXIBLE, OPEN U.S. ECONOMY

11:00 AM ET 7/10/06 U.S. MUST ENGAGE WITH ECONOMIC PARTNERS, PAULSON SAYS

11:00 AM ET 7/10/06 PAULSON: U.S. MUST EXPAND TRADE, INVESTMENT

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B86A1B3F9%2DACBC%2D45AC%2D8DDD%2D319A8DFBDC2B%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. Treasury secretary designee Henry Paulson pledged to keep the economy strong, flexible and open on Monday, in remarks prepared for delivery at his swearing-in ceremony. The former Goldman Sachs (GS : 149.91, +1.40, +0.9% ) chief is being sworn in later Monday as the 74th Treasury secretary.
Paulson said the U.S. should tackle a number of economic challenges. "We must work to expand trade and investment, work to reform and modernize international financial markets and be vigilant in identifying and managing potential financial vulnerability," he said. Paulson didn't mention the dollar or exchange rates in his prepared remarks.

It's nice to see that Goldman Sachs shares are benefiting :sarcasm:

[54anickel]

42. As long as we're looking at pictures.....

The Zig-Zag Fed Zaps the US Dollar, Ignites Gold Rally

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

big snip>

US Dollar is chronically weak despite Fed rate hikes



As the US Federal Reserve appears to be near the end of its 2-year rate hike campaign, foreign banks are starting to hike their rates, thus making the dollar less attractive. At the same time, the massive US trade deficit channels a huge outflow of dollars to other countries, as well as the need to finance the ever-bigger US deficit. Last year, the US trade deficit in goods and services hit a record $726 billion, as US imports far exceeded exports. The gap reached 6.4% of GDP.

snip?

While the Fed has restored the fed funds rate to 5.25%, a five year high, the US dollar index remains 24% below it levels of 2001. What has unfolded over the past two years, is the US Treasury forced to offer higher interest rates to foreigners, to prevent the US dollar from falling under its own weight.

The Fed’s June 29 zig zag on interest rates is fraught with many risks, such as tilting the balance in favor of a speculative attack against the US dollar, which could invite higher import inflation, or foreign central bank diversification into other currencies and gold. US import prices rose 1.6% in May, and 8.3% higher from a year earlier, far above the 5.8% pace notched in the 12 months to April. Oil import prices rose 5.2% in May and are up 45.7% over the previous 12 months.




Because exchange traded commodities are mostly denominated in US dollars, the Federal Reserve has a special role to play to defend the US dollar, and prevent global commodity inflation from spreading into producer prices. Gold traders have known for a long-time, that the hard dollars and cents flowing through the commodities markets, are a more reliable indicator of real time inflation, rather than inflation statistics fashioned by government apparatchniks.

The biggest threat to the US$ is the possibility that foreign central banks will dump the greenback. Beijing has been gradually diversifying away from US dollar assets in its $925 billion of foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest, but fears of a collapse in the US currency against the yuan, prevents it from making any dramatic shift. Japan is the second largest holder of the US$, and has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries by $50 billion since April 2004.

more...

[UpInArms]

48. That post should be entitled

"The Rocky Horror Picture Show"

:scared:

[54anickel]

64. Koizumi Rattles His Saber! (Today's Pfenning)

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=822

snip>

The Jobs Jamboree did indeed disappoint yet again on Friday... June's tally of jobs created came in at a very disappointing 121K, which, if you recall last week's discussion, was supposed to be anywhere between +350K to +175K depending on who you follow. OUCH! I'm not going to slap myself on the back, but the call that the risk was to the downside was bang on, eh? There was just too much hype over that ADP jobs report to get me to bite...

The dollar got sold immediately after the number was reported, and the euro ran up to 1.2860 before backing off on profit taking. The euro and yen have not taken some news from Japan very well and have backed off even more overnight... Japan's PM Koizumi announced that he is studying the legitimacy of striking bases in North Korea...

This announcement has had the same negative reaction by the currencies as the actual missile tests last Tuesday. The dollar benefited from the missile tests, and it will benefit from the Koizumi statements until someone comes to the realization that this is nothing more than saber rattling....

The dollar failed to hold those gains last week as the dust settled on the missile tests, and it will fail to hold these gains, too! Big Ben Bernanke told us just two weeks ago that further rate hikes will be data dependent... Well... Let's see, since then we've had disappointing data reports on Personal Income, ISM Manufacturing, Factory Orders, ISM services, and the Jobs Jamboree... The Red Side of the ledger is filling up fast and this week, we'll see the Trade Deficit data...

What I'm saying here is that if Big Ben is true to his word, then the Fed is finished raising rates... The data doesn't support it... As I've said over and over again, the last 100 BPS of rate hikes haven't even gotten a chance to work through the economy yet... However, I do believe the previous 100 BPS has, and that's why everything in the economy is looking sluggish...

So, what you need to do is simply recall the two times in the past when the media thought Big Ben said a "pause" was nearing, and what happened to the dollar then, and you'll get the picture on what happens when the actual "pause" or "stop sign" has been reached! The second prop for the dollar will have been removed... And then it's back to the fundamentals other than interest rates...

This week, we finally will see the Bank of Japan come off their ZIRP (zero interest rate policy).....

more...

[UpInArms]

15. China's trade surplus hits record in June

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060710/ap_on_bi_ge/china_trade

SHANGHAI, China - China's global trade surplus rose to a new record monthly high of $14.5 billion in June, the Commerce Ministry reported Monday, raising the likelihood of more tension over Beijing's currency controls.

Figures on new loans and money supply, meanwhile, show signs of a slight slowdown, although China's sizzling economic growth has boosted expectations of a further tightening in credit.

Trade data showed that exports rose 23 percent from a year earlier to $81.3 billion while imports climbed 19 percent to $66.8 billion, the ministry said in a report on its Web site.

The previous record surplus for a single month was $13 billion in May.

China's trade surplus has been soaring in recent months after hitting a historic high of $102 billion last year, more than triple the $32 billion surplus in 2004. The report did not include data for individual countries.

China's ballooning trade surplus with the United States, which hit a record $202 billion in 2005, has fanned antagonism over the persistent imbalance between the two countries. That figure is bigger than China's global trade gap because China has trade deficits with some nations.

June's increase raised the trade surplus for the first half of the year to $61.5 billion, a 55 percent jump over last year's first-half surplus of $39.7 billion.

...more...

[54anickel]

26. China's tax revenues rise by 22.3% in first half

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2006-07/07/content_636391.htm

China's tax revenues hit 1.93 trillion yuan (US$241.25 billion) in the first six months, a rise of 22.3 percent over the same period last year, according to the State Administration of Taxation.

The figure was 352.2 billion yuan more than the same period of last year.

An administration official attributed the rapid growth of tax revenues to the "stable and fast" development of the nation's economy.

He said the strict implementation of tax policies had also played an important role, predicting that tax revenues would continue to rise steadily.

The growth rate of the tax revenue, which excluded revenues from customs tariffs and the farming sector, was in step with the development of the nation's economy, said the official.

China's income tax revenues from foreign-invested enterprises, domestic enterprises and individuals amounted to 546.5 billion yuan in the first half, an increase of 27.8 percent from the same period last year.

more...

[UpInArms]

55. China's trade surplus up 49 pct in June

http://english.people.com.cn/200607/10/eng20060710_281765.html

China's trade surplus hit a record 14.5 billion U.S. dollars in June, up 49 percent over the same period last year, the Commerce Ministry said Monday.

Exports rose 23.3 percent over June last year to 81.31 billion U.S. dollars, and imports increased 18.9 percent to 66.81 billion U.S. dollars, the ministry said on its website.

China posted a trade surplus of 61.45 billion U.S. dollars in the first half, up 54.9 percent over the same period last year. Exports in the first six months rose 25.2 percent to 428.59 billion U.S. dollars while imports reached 367.15 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 21.3 percent.

[UpInArms]

16. Private memorial held for Enron founder

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060710/ap_on_bi_ge/lay_memorial

ASPEN, Colo. - Former Enron Corp. CEO Jeffrey Skilling was among scores of people Sunday at a private memorial for company founder Kenneth Lay, who died in this mountain resort town last week as he awaited sentencing for his role in one of the nation's biggest corporate frauds.

A lone sheriff's deputy and uniformed private security guards were on hand, with some using umbrellas on a cloudy, rainy day to shield participants from media photographers at the Aspen Chapel.

The parking lots were full for the chapel, which holds 300 people, with some mourners arriving nearly two hours early.

Inside, there was a picture of Lay at the altar, flanked by sprays of sunflowers, according to Shelby Hodge, a writer for the Houston Chronicle who stepped inside and was swiftly escorted out.

...more...

:puke:

They couldn't bury the SOB anywhere in the country - his grave would have been desecrated on a daily basis by all of the people that he destroyed.

[UpInArms]

18. Treasuries dip on profit-taking, expected stock gain

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-10T122324Z_01_N10290630_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, July 10 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries prices fell on Monday on profit-taking after Friday's gains, which were spurred by slower-than-expected job growth and view that the Federal Reserve may soon stop raising interest rates.

Treasury debt was also under pressure from anticipated competing strength in stocks when U.S. companies begin to report on their second-quarter results, analysts said.

The market's losses will likely be limited given the scarcity of major economic indicators until Friday when the government will report on retail sales for June and the University of Michigan provides a preliminary report for consumer sentiment in July, they said.

Monday's U.S. reports include wholesale inventories at 10 a.m. (1400 GMT) and consumer credit at 3 p.m. (1900 GMT), but they are not expected to be market-moving data, according to traders.

The median forecast on May wholesale inventories among analysts polled by Reuters was a 0.5 percent increase from April. The median estimate on U.S. May consumer credit was a rise of $3.5 billion from a month earlier.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds reserves through overnight system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-10T133247Z_01_N10342816_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, July 10 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve on Monday said that it added temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.25 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

19. Gold opens lower (@ $625 oz)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B38A4D2E8%2D63F3%2D4F03%2DBE78%2DF5E14A5C08BC%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold opened lower Monday, as traders consolidated recent gains and crude oil prices came under pressure after a positive signal from Iran on a western nuclear offer. Gold for August delivery was last trading down $9.80 at $625.0 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "The market has been slightly long for a while," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com, adding that gold's dip on Monday resulted from "general profit-taking." Other metals prices also declined. Silver dropped 43 cents to $10.975 an ounce, platinum was down $11.70 at $1,232.0 an ounce, palladium lost $11.15 to $318.0 an ounce and copper dropped 4.25 cents to $3.5050 a pound.

[UpInArms]

21. AOL eyes thousands of layoffs, free Web services, report says

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B84FB76C5%2D7211%2D4403%2D90A3%2DA1FD963DA40F%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Jonathan Miller, chief executive of Time Warner's (TWX : 16.84, -0.14, -0.8% ) America Online, plans to formally propose a shift to free Web-based services for the Internet unit, according to a report Monday in The New York Times. Miller will call for a near halt in marketing for AOL's Internet access service, price reductions for existing customers and thousands of layoffs, the newspaper reported. Citing executives involved in the proposal, the newspaper reported that the plan will be made public on Aug. 2 and will require the company to cut into profit margins until advertising revenue increases.

[UpInArms]

22. Automatic Data Processing gave out lists of shareholders to thieves

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/08/business/08data.html?ex=1310011200&en=79dd3b9ff487b702&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

Automatic Data Processing, the world's biggest paycheck processor, said yesterday that its brokerage services unit gave out lists of shareholders in various companies to an "unauthorized party" pretending to be officers of public companies.

The company gave the impersonator the information from November 2005 to February this year, the vice president for marketing at the brokerage services unit, Dorothy Friedman, said yesterday in an e-mail statement. Automatic Data is based in Roseland, N.J. Its brokerage services group is in Edgewood, N.Y.

The lists included investor names, addresses and the number of company shares held at brokerage firms that are clients of Automatic Data. They did not contain account numbers, Social Security numbers or the identities of brokers holding the shares, Ms. Friedman said.

Shares of Automatic Data fell $1.40, or 3.1 percent, to $44.01.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. Revlon sees $40 mln negative impact from Vital Radiance

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC7E95DDB%2DDD3A%2D4924%2D81F2%2D731B65CA089C%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Revlon Inc. (REV : 1.30, -0.05, -3.7% ) Monday said it expects adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to be a loss of about $30 million for the second quarter. The company said this outlook reflects a negative impact of $40 million from returns related to the launch of its Vital Radiance color cosmetics brand, which saw roughly $20 million in returns related to space reductions with certain large format customers, where performance was also well below expectations, as well as anticipated modifications to the brand offering. Revlon expects to post an operating loss of $55 million for the second quarter, and a net loss of about $95 million for the period. It sees net sales for the quarter coming in about even with its year-ago equivalent total of $318.3 million. The current average estimate of two analysts polled by Thomson First Call is for revenue of $334.3 million in the June period. For the year, Revlon sees adjusted EBITDA "about even with or somewhat below" its $167 million total for 2005. The 2006 outlook includes the negative impact of Vital Radiance and a $10 million restructuring charge. Revlon also said it re-staging of the Almay brand is tracking behind expectations. The company didn't provide a specific outlook for 2007 but said its longer-term net sales growth goal is in the mid-single-digit range. The stock closed Friday at $1.30, down 3.7%.

[UpInArms]

24. KB Home, Dominion Homes issue negative views on housing

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BCB635E4E%2D6585%2D47EC%2DB4BC%2DBFFC45FC5EB2%7D&symbol=

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A pair of home builders said the U.S. housing market continues to soften, reflected by weaker orders and higher cancellations, and one of them warned that the downturn could continue into next year.

Despite a healthy backlog of homes awaiting construction, KB Home (KBH : 45.76, -0.24, -0.5% ) said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Friday that its outlook is cautious "as conditions in many of the markets we serve across the U.S. have become more challenging in recent months."

The Los Angeles company added that several of its markets "have been affected by a buildup of new and resale home inventories, higher interest rates and higher cancellation rates, particularly markets that have experienced rapid price appreciation or substantial investor activity, or both, in the past few years."

For the quarter ended May 31, KB Home, the nation's No. 5 builder by 2005 deliveries, said net orders fell 19% from the year-ago period to 9,908 homes.

...more...

[WhiteTara]

58. one good thing about the non-depression

we will be able to keep more of our farm lands.

[54anickel]

25. The Omnipotent Fed: If I Ever Lose My Faith in You

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=56094

snip>

We suggest that something has, indeed, changed. Normally disparate markets have floated higher on a sea of liquidity. Recently, they have all turned lower. Could this be signaling a contraction in credit?



Our public discussion of the inflation-deflation debate began with our May 2004 newsletter, in which we offered two definitions, which bear repeating. Webster’s defines inflation as “an increase in the volume of money and credit relative to available goods and services resulting in a continuing rise in the general price level,” and Webster’s defines deflation as “a contraction in the volume of available money or credit that results in a general decline in prices.” Clearly, since we first wrote on this issue, the increase in the volume of credit has manifested itself in inflating asset prices the world over.



I have long found Robert Prechter’s “all the same markets” hypothesis interesting. His line of reasoning, which he explains below, is not without merit:

So, the basic idea is that when an inordinate amount of credit is introduced to the system, it floods into normally divergent markets and forces all of them up together. For example, stocks and commodities do not usually trend together, yet they have been lately. Is it possible that cheap labor in the global marketplace, causing consumer prices to stay relatively low, would create an ideal environment for a rapid expansion of credit that would drive the vast majority of markets higher?”



Since we have so obviously been experiencing an inflationary environment over the last few years, and since we have seen rampant credit creation drive our markets up for the last couple decades, many assume the deflation argument lacks credibility. Let’s talk through this. The foundation of contrarian investing is that the majority is usually wrong, and as such, contrarians endeavor to think opposite of the crowd. Now, if the vast majority of all bulls and bears think that varying degrees of inflation is the core problem, and if the majority of all bull and bear arguments are built upon the presupposition that the Fed’s actions will dictate the ultimate outcome of various markets and economies, then, as contrarian, we feel compelled to explore the validity of these assumptions.

more...

[Lasher]

29. 121,000 new jobs: Is that all?

BY JEANNINE AVERSA | THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

WASHINGTON - U.S. employers added a disappointing 121,000 jobs last month, wary of bulking up payrolls with the economy slowing and energy prices rising. Wages rose sharply, fanning inflation worries.

Wall Street groaned and stocks tumbled. The Dow Jones industrials lost 134.63 points to close at 11,090.67.

The latest employment snapshot, released by the Labor Department on Friday, also showed that the nation's civilian unemployment rate held steady at 4.6 percent.

<snip>

The count of new jobs added to the economy in June did mark an improvement from the 92,000 new positions logged in May - the fewest in seven months. But it still fell short of economists' forecasts for an increase of around 175,000.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060708/BIZ/607080325/1001

Is the tax cuts workin' yet? This is not even enough jobs to keep up with population growth. I think the supply siders are in denial.

I noticed the S&P 500 was at 1,342.90 when The Decider first took office, and now it's at 1,265.48. I think this must be the worst performance in this respect of any president, ever. Am I right?

[Roland99]

38. But, but, but, he had to deal with post-DotCom bust and 9/11!

:eyes:

[Lasher]

56. Yeah, it was Clinton's fault!

Where are the tax cut jobs?



http://zfacts.com/p/563.html

Gross National Debt



http://zfacts.com/p/318.html

[UpInArms]

30. 9:43 EST Happy Numbers and Blather

Dow 11,142.30 +51.63 (+0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,140.71 +10.65 (+0.50%)
S&P 500 1,271.34 +5.86 (+0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 5.142 +0.10 (+0.19%)

NYSE Volume 115,150,000
Nasdaq Volume 91,105,000

updated blather on edit:

09:40 am : Market begins the week in positive fashion as stocks regain some traction following another week of losses. A sense that Friday's drubbing may have been excessive, given the lack of overwhelming evidence to support such a broad-based pullback since the jobs data were mixed, is lending some early support. Alcoa (AA 33.98 +0.43) surging 1.3% in early action, which is expected to report its largest quarterly profit since at least 1997 when it kicks off earnings season tonight, is also improving sentiment and lending credence for a 12th straight quarter of a double-digit profit growth for the SnP 500. DJ30 +52.42 NASDAQ +10.58 SP500 +5.88 NASDAQ Vol 68 mln NYSE Vol 62 mln

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Still shaping up for stocks to open on an upbeat note despite any meaningful catalysts to account for the underlying positive bias. Lending some support for blue chips, though, is Walt Disney (DIS) after a record-setting $132 mln weekend for its "Pirates of the Caribbean" sequel. However, one shouldn't read too much into early gains as they will simply be the result of reflexive buying action and trading throughout the session could remain choppy until the outlook for future profits and Fed policy becomes clearer.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.5. Futures continue to trade near their best levels of the morning, signaling a higher open for the indices, as oil prices slipping below $74 per barrel ease some nervousness after crude hit record levels last week. Investors may also be finding solace in the absence of notable economic reports, especially since policy makers have made it clear that they will base monetary policy on "incoming" data. Wholesale Inventories and Consumer Credit reports for May will be released after the market opens, but neither is expected to have any impact on the market's behavior.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.2. Both SnP 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are trading above fair value as the on-again, off-again trading pattern that continues to persist in the face of uncertainty about Fed policy has stocks poised to open modestly higher. Aside from the positive leaning being rooted in little more than an expectation that the market is due for a bounce of some type given the scope of Friday's losses, Alcoa (AA) officially kicking off earnings season after the close may be underpinning a sense of optimism about companies' ability to grow profits in a rising interest rate environment.

[54anickel]

32. OECD unveils pension guidelines

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0bf1bc60-0f6d-11db-ad3d-0000779e2340.html

The funding of occupational pension schemes remains a challenge in nearly every country where they form a portion of social security provision, despite the recovery of world stock markets whose dislocation in early 2000 is blamed for their woes.

snip>

The guidelines, produced by the OECD’s working party on pensions, are intended to provoke member states to pass legislation in three key areas: funding rules, insurance arrangements for insolvent schemes and the rights of scheme members in bankruptcy.

Among its proposals are that member states should adopt rules for valuing pension schemes that are based on yields on high-quality corporate or government bonds, a methodology which gives rise to a larger calculation of liabilities that will need to be paid for.

Juan Yermo, adviser to the working party, said the OECD believed it was now necessary to encourage a legal framework for pensions because far too many schemes in the 30 member states remained severely underfunded. “What we’d like (governments) to do is to pay attention to the punch line of these proposals – the funding requirements,” Mr Yermo told the FT.

The guidelines say adequately funded pension schemes would have obviated the need for any insurance scheme or changes to the priority of creditors in bankruptcy, the latter of which is the most politically contentious of all the guidelines’ suggestions. “It could come as a shock to the bankruptcy market because for decades, banks have assumed that a pension scheme is not only an unsecured creditor but is one with no voice at all,” he said.

snip>

While the proposed guidelines make no criticism of any member state, research papers accompanying them make pointed reference to the US system and the inadequacy of rules governing the pension insurer, the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation. Because the PBGC’s rules are determined by Congress, it is subject to political interference, the report argues, saying “the PBGC’s problem is that it does not have sufficient powers to protect itself”.

Remember "way back when", when we could trust Congress to do what we freakin' elected them to do - which is to protect "the peoples" interests? Corporate personhood allows them to say, "oh but we are". Now it looks like were stuck between the devil and the deep blue sea. Do we trust and empower the PBGC to protect itself, or do we trust Congress? My vote these days is for neither.

more...

[UpInArms]

34. In year of scandal, reform bill stalled in Congress

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-09T140716Z_01_N05296435_RTRIDST_0_CONGRESS-ETHICS.XML

WASHINGTON, July 9 (Reuters) - A free Rolls-Royce, expensive trips to a storied Scottish golf resort, even a freezer stuffed with $90,000 in cash have so far failed to move the U.S. Congress to clean up Capitol Hill.

Efforts to tighten lobbying rules have stalled in the months since a series of corruption scandals, creating potential trouble for Republicans who vowed to institute tough ethics reform.

With the August recess approaching, and then the campaign season when many lawmakers pay scant attention to policy matters, negotiators have little time to resolve differences between bills in the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate and come up with legislation President George W. Bush can sign.

<snip>

Inaction could hurt Republicans if the U.S. Justice Department brings charges in any one of several ongoing corruption probes, others say.

"I don't think it's dead, only because I think the public's attention is going to return to this when members of Congress begin to get indicted," said Mike Surrusco, director of ethics campaigns for Common Cause, another nonpartisan reform group that has pushed for tighter regulations.

No lawmakers have been charged since former California Republican Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham pleaded guilty to accepting $2.4 million in bribes last year, including a Rolls-Royce.

...more...

[WhiteTara]

59. Lewis and Ney look ready to pop

that should rachet up the attention on the corrupt repuklican party

[Nimrod2005]

40. SHOULD ADD: # OF ENRON EXECITIVES DEAD: 1

[rfranklin]

41. Two? Was it Cliff Baxter that the Bushies suicided?

and added to the list of convenient "suicides."

[WhiteTara]

60. but what about

the guy who "suicided" in Texas just as the Enron frauds were being exposed? He was an exec IIRC

[54anickel]

43. Stagflation Reality Sets In

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Schiff/jul072006.html

Today's negative stock market reaction to the weak jobs data shows that the "bad news is good news market," which has ruled for the past couple of years, may have finally become a "bad news is bad news market." With the June non-farms payroll data rising by only 121,000, verses an expected gain of over 200,000, it appears that Wall Street is finally acknowledging that the reality that stagflation trumps, or potentially negates, the potential for a Fed pause. If that is indeed the case, things are about to get a lot worse for stocks.

The stagflation alarm rang louder due to an increase in wages paid of .5%, 65% above the .3% that analysts had been forecasting, against a backdrop of record high oil prices, which approached $76 per barrel for the first time ever before pulling back. Once again, employment in the service sector, including banks and retailers, contributed the lion's share of the gains, rising by 75,000, while government payrolls swelled by 31,000. In what is sure to be the just the tip of the iceberg, construction lost 4,000 jobs, while on the bright side the beleaguered manufacturing sector managed to add 15,000 jobs. The unemployment rate, adjusted of course for the millions of discouraged workers who have simply given up looking, held steady at 4.6%.

However, the big question is will these payroll gains, however tepid, last? Given that national employment is overwhelmingly dependent on service sector jobs, which in turn are dependent on discretionary consumer spending, the prognosis is bleak. With oil prices on track to reach $100 per barrel (sending pump prices above $4 per gallon), the Fed likely to raise interest rates a few more times (further pushing up mortgage payments and rents), the continuing upward pressure on health care, insurance and local taxes, and the prospect of rising food prices, discretionary spending is likely to collapse in the years ahead.

Even more important than the ability of Americans to borrow and consume, is the willingness of foreigners to produce and lend. With the endurance of the former and the tolerance of the latter both likely to be tested soon, today’s job gains will likely become tomorrow’s job losses.

more...

[UpInArms]

44. Sale Shoppers Annoy Grocers as They Save

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/10/business/media/10drill.html?ex=1153108800&en=0150a0a90054ec29&ei=5099&partner=TOPIXNEWS

Grocers loathe the shoppers known as "cherry-pickers" — people who visit several stores on a single grocery run, choosing only the sale items in each. "I remember working with a grocery company, and the head buyer was talking about cherry-pickers. He used terms like 'rape,' " said Edward J. Fox, a professor of marketing at Southern Methodist University. "They feel it's a violation of trust."

A recently published study by Professor Fox and Stephen J. Hoch, a professor of marketing at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, examined cherry-pickers in Chicago. It found that households with elderly residents were 15 percent more likely to cherry-pick and those with nonworking adult females were about 16 percent more likely.

Cherry-pickers get better with experience. A family that cherry-picks on 4.3 percent of its grocery runs, the median frequency, averages $11.93 in savings per cherry-picking trip. But families that cherry-pick 20 percent of the time save an average of $15.76.



...more...

[JNelson6563]

45. Loss leader strategy failing

Which is such a shock cosidering how the economy has never been better!

:sarcasm:

[rfranklin]

50. But they spent $20 on gas going from supermarket to...

supermarket. Gee, that sounds like a good plan.

[WhiteTara]

61. hate them, eh? Well, I guess that I'm going

to have to work on my cherry picking skills. I need to save lots of money.

[RawMaterials]

77. Then you spend 2 hrs in the store Cherry picking

to save 15$, thats the biggest waist of time/money

[WhiteTara]

90. actually it would slim the waist

to do all that walking, but if you are a very busy person, I guess it would be a waste of time. ;)

[UpInArms]

51. Options scandal jolts insurance rates - Bend over, investors!

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/orl-g6fill09b06jul09,0,1166937.story?track=rss

NEW YORK -- If investors think they are safe from the scandal involving the suspicious timing of executive stock option grants, they may want to consider this: Even if they aren't invested in companies caught up in that mess, it could still cost them.

That is because this controversy could lead to big changes across corporate America in the policies for directors' and officers' insurance, which is used to shield top executives and board members from personal losses for the decisions that they make while on the job.

Not only are rates expected to rise, but insurers could also be more restrictive in the coverage they offer or what they pay out in claims. Who will get stuck with the tab for such changes? Shareholders at public companies all around, of course.

D&O insurance, which is renewed annually and is paid for by the company, already is expensive. Companies with market capitalization of more than $10 billion paid an average premium of $4.3 million for D&O insurance in 2005, according to Towers Perrin's Tillinghast consulting division.

<snip>

More than 50 companies -- from industry bellwethers like Apple Computer Inc. and Home Depot Inc. to many smaller technology companies -- are facing questions about whether they manipulated the timing of options grants to boost their value to the recipients and properly disclosed what resulted in outsized and potentially illegal profits for many executives.

...more...

[rfranklin]

52. Brought to you by the "responsibility" party......

(R) stands for responsibility, don't you know?

[UpInArms]

53. 11:00 EST Excitement Fills the Floor

Dow 11,170.07 +79.40 (+0.72%)
Nasdaq 2,137.58 +7.52 (+0.35%)
S&P 500 1,273.65 +8.17 (+0.65%)
10-Yr Bond 5.142 +0.10 (+0.19%)

NYSE Volume 543,128,000
Nasdaq Volume 410,420,000

11:00 am : More of the same for stocks as the blue chip averages outpace the Nasdaq to the upside. Stalling early attempts by the tech-heavy Nasdaq to reclaim some of Friday's 1.2% pullback has been renewed weakness in Technology, which has recently slipped into negative territory. Follow-through selling in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 23.08 -0.48) after it warned last week is weighing on chip stocks while EMC Corp (EMC 10.82 -0.36) cutting its Q2 outlook is weighing on the hardware group. DJ30 +76.76 NASDAQ +7.78 SOX -0.5% SP500 +7.81 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1170/1538/398 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 978/1944/355 mln

10:30 am : Major averages are trading back near session highs as buying remains widespread across most areas. Energy has turned positive and is now turning in the best performance (0.8%), as Morgan Stanley raising its price targets on much of the oil service and equipment group (e.g. SLB +2.2%, HAL +1.1% and BHI +0.9%) is helping to offset the pullback in oil and reminding investors that Energy is again expected to provide the strongest contribution to earnings growth on the SnP 500. Separately, May wholesale inventories rose a stronger-than-expected 0.8% as sales jumped by twice that amount -- 1.6%. Even though the result is a new record low inventory-to-sales ratio of 1.15 months, the reduced inventory levels don't provide the swing they did to overall GDP growth a decade ago.DJ30 +65.15 NASDAQ +6.73 SP500 +6.52 XOI +0.4% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 976/1646/292 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 810/2033/266 mln

10:00 am : Indices are off their opening highs but eight out of 10 economic sectors are still posting gains. Consumer Staples is pacing the way to the upside, led by CVS Corp (CVS 31.55 +1.09) after it posted stronger-than-expected June same-store sales growth of 8.4%. Health Care is another defensive sector offering some early leadership, benefiting from renewed enthusiasm for medical equipment and HMOs; but strength across the board in the influential Financials sector is providing the most notable support. Energy, though, is consolidating as oil prices continue to pull back from all-time highs above $75 per barrel while Alcoa (AA 33.58 +0.03) giving up the bulk of its early gains, coupled with weakness across the commodity complex, is weighing on Materials. DJ30 +45.30 NASDAQ +5.98 SP500 +4.40 XOI -0.1% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 798/1619/154

[54anickel]

62. Different this Time vs 1980 (Willie)

http://www.kitco.com/ind/Willie/jul062006.html

snip>

Most claims of decade similarities are a bit trivial, obvious, and not important. Crude oil has tripled in price, from its origin to the present. Gold has more than doubled from its origin. Stagflation threatens to grip the USEconomy. Conflicts with Persian Gulf oil producers are prevalent. These are to be sure. However, differences are profound and extremely critical to stock investments, monetary policy, pricing dynamics, and economic development. These dissimilarities are so great that the current climate differs like summer and winter. Each season has sunshine, precipitation, and winds. Summer and winter each offers sunburn (in winter, try the elevations in Colorado), offers occasional dumps in precipitation (snow blizzards versus rain floods and hail storms), and requires battening down the hatches against wind damage. The big temperature contrast, bite of the chill, withered leafy formations on trees, and frozen structures make for the profound change that keenly identifies winter. The same holds for this decade versus the 1970 decade, whose differences are so huge, so deep, so wide that it is almost tragically humorous to hear of claimed similarities.

Back then we escaped after a couple of very harsh years, conned and fleeced the Arabs who suffered erosion in the Treasury Bonds bought with recycled petroleum sales revenue. The conjob was so blatant, so shameful, like a pro dealing with a vulnerable rookie blessed with an inheritance. The US “deal” with Saudis can be compared to a Mafia don setting up shop with the high schools in suburbs where kids widely inherited parental fortunes, offering sports gambling cards to the brats. The mob offers 4-to-1 returns if a kid can select 6 winners against a point spread. By the way, that is a 64-to-1 odds event paying out 4-to-1 rewards. As interest rates rose directly from USFed decisions, Arabs lost a fortune. That is a key difference between back then and now… Arabs and Asians will not get screwed on their reserves. They will diversify more out of USTBonds and rely less on the US$-based securities. The financial world is less USTreasury centric.

The United States adapted, adjusted, and worked in the 1970 decade to become more efficient as a nation in energy usage. Tighter gasoline efficiency was legislated, along with lower speed limits. Tax credits were granted for renewable energy device deployment. Nowadays, we are not adapting to anything, but rather work to create more extreme situation. The Soviet counter-balance is gone, permitting the United States to exert its will with no resistance on a global scale, except with respect to the energy wars and its many tyrants lying on the periphery to OPEC. The lack of military balance seems to be matched by a coercion globally for foreigners to hand over savings, and to finance the $3.2 billion in daily credit requirements. Somehow the label of “international extortion” seems fitting. See “Petro-Dollar & Protection Racquet” from April 2005 for a fuller layout.

Instead of adapting to become more efficient, the USEconomy has become more pig-like with larger vehicles and SUV’s, larger houses and utility requirements, larger household debts, more abuse of home equity, and no seeming regard whatsoever to direct attention nor efforts toward remedy. The entire justification of a consumer economy, hellbent on lifting the shopping mall as shrines to capitalism, building a system upon a sandy foundation, all this sounds ludicrous in the present and hardly evident in the 1970 decade. We have proceeded through at least three wondrous economic mythology exercises since that time, each more preposterous, yet accepted, than the last. Note the trickle down theory, the tech-telecom productivity miracle, and the flexible credit system, each heretical in description, fully practiced and endorsed by lunatic bankers. A system built upon inflation for wealth generation must deceive both its participants and its credit suppliers in order to continue to perpetuate itself into the future. What Bernanke needs more than ever right now is some cockeyed new economic mythology to sell to the world. Unfortunately, the US might have sold its last moronic pitch. A darker, more risk laden, more violent, less free future is what lies ahead instead.

more...

[54anickel]

63. HIGH ANXIETY

http://www.nypost.com/business/high_anxiety_business_tom_bawden.htm

July 10, 2006 -- Anxious investors are squirming this morning in the wake of Friday's stock market swoon, worrying that we may be in for more of the same this week.
The jitters are sparked by growing indications that the 17 consecutive increases in rates by the Fed have substantially cooled the economy.

"You got people wondering here if the Fed has already overshot on rates," pushing them too high and halting economic growth, said Bill Groenveld, head trader for vFinance Investments.

"And that fear has the market jumping over every little thing right now," he said.

Indeed, investors pushed the Dow Jones industrial average down 134 points, or 1.2 percent, on Friday after the Labor Department released employment data which suggested the economy was heading for the double-whammy of inflation and economic stagnation, or stagflation.

snip>

The worsening economic outlook has heightened fears among economists that we could see companies issuing a spate of profit warnings in the next two weeks.

"A lot of companies report in the second half of July and it will be very interesting to see whether their results are worse-than-expected," Lavorgna said.

more...

[Roland99]

65. 1:04pm - a bit of hesitancy (and a bit of rah-rah blather)

DJIA 11,133.17, +42.50, +0.4%
NASDAQ 2,124.93, -5.13, -0.2%
S&P 1,268.70, +3.22, +0.3%

"The broad market is rallying with the exception of technology," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at Spencer Clarke LLC. "The equity markets are trying to stabilize after Friday's sell-off."

Sheldon there have been profit warnings in the technology sector with Kronos and EMC as well as Advanced Micro Devices, but that these weren't "enough to really say that tech spending is crashing."

Yeah, that S&P is rallying BIG TIME!



:eyes:

[54anickel]

67. 1:58 numbers and blather catch-up

Dow 11,124.21 +33.54 (+0.30%)
Nasdaq 2,120.94 -9.11 (-0.43%)
S&P 500 1,268.32 +2.84 (+0.22%)
10-yr Bond 51.34 +0.02 (+0.04%)
30-yr Bond 51.73 -0.01 (-0.02%)
NYSE Volume 1,172,457,000
Nasdaq Volume 965,610,000

1:30 pm : Indices slip to session lows as further consolidation in oil pushes the Energy sector into negative territory for the first time this afternoon. With Energy turning in the best performance among all 10 economic sectors, extending its year-to-date rise to over 13% last week when crude futures hit an all-time high of $75.78 per barrel on July 7th, a 1.5% pullback in oil has offered investors an opportunity to lock in recent gains amid the lack of overwhelming evidence to support oil’s recent run-up to a new record.DJ30 +40.25 NASDAQ -6.28 SP500 +3.03 XOI -0.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1416/1484/870 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1200/1950/728 mln

1:00 pm : Major averages are back to trading in split fashion, as investors remain more focused on the growth prospects of blue chips. Pacing the way on the Dow is McDonald's Corp (MCD 33.85 +0.67), a suggested holding in Briefing.com's Active Portfolio. DuPont (DD 41.18 +0.64) is also providing some notable leadership with a 1.6% gain and helping to offset a 2.9% sell-off in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 31.89 -0.96) and a new 52-week low in Home Depot (HD 35.15 -0.22). DJ30 +52.59 NASDAQ -2.33 SP500 +4.40 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1319/1575/788 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 976/2175/668 mln

12:30 pm : No real change in sentiment as the afternoon session gets underway. The Nasdaq has inched back above the flat line but the very small move amid limited participation offers little conviction. Of the Nasdaq-100 stocks losing ground, Akamai Technologies (AKAM 33.54 -1.71), which hit a 52-week high last Wednesday, is turning in the worst performance. SanDisk (SNDK 45.18 -2.27) ranks second with a 4.8% decline amid more concerns about NAND pricing pressures while EMC's warning is weighing heavily on rival Network Appliance (NTAP 32.15 -1.01).DJ30 +56.11 NASDAQ +0.95 SP500 +5.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1313/1551/696 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1015/2108/596 mln

12:00 pm : The blue chip averages are posting modest gains midday as Friday's drubbing attracts bargain hunters and investors turn their focus to earnings.

With Wall Street forecasts for the SnP 500 now calling for aggregate Q2 operating earnings growth of 11-12%, up from single digits early in the quarter that threatened to snap a winning streak of 11 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth, is being cited as the driving catalyst behind today's efforts to get back on the buying track. Alcoa (AA 33.70 +0.15), which will officially kick off earnings season after the close, is expected to report its largest quarterly profit since at least 1997.

Be that as it may, with 3M Co's (MMM 74.01 -0.09) warning still fresh in the minds of many, the positive leaning can also be attributed to oil prices slipping to session lows and a sense that the market is due for a bounce of some type given the scope of Friday's losses. Crude oil futures are off 1.2% at $73.25 per barrel amid reports that Saudi Arabia is testing a new technique that could unlock its huge reservoirs of heavy crude oil. Despite oil's slide, Energy, which is expected to provide the largest contribution to operating earnings growth on the SnP 500 again, is among the best performing sectors.

The influential Financials sector is providing the bulk of early leadership as typical Monday merger news lends some support for brokerage stocks. Consumer Staples is also posting a noticeable gain, led by CVS Corp (CVS 31.45 +0.99) after it posted stronger-than-expected June same-store sales growth of 8.4%. Health Care has been another defensive sector offering some early leadership, benefiting from renewed enthusiasm for medical equipment and HMOs. However, further weakness in Technology (-0.6%) -- the only sector losing ground in part after Merrill Lynch downgraded the sector to Underweight, continues to take a toll on the Nasdaq which has recently turned negative. BTK -0.3% DJ30 +63.07 DJTA +0.5% DJUA +0.5% NASDAQ -1.02 NQ100 -0.2% R2K +0.6% SOX -0.9% SP400 +0.4% SP500 +4.72 XOI +0.2% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1224/1603/623 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 941/2131/540 mln

[54anickel]

68. There's No Such Thing as Idle Cash on the Sidelines (Hussman)

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc060710.htm

snip>

That last one isn't easy to grasp. After all, you can look at your own brokerage account and say – “look right there at that cash balance. There it is, on the sidelines, just waiting for me to put it into the market.”

But if you look more closely, what you really have is an IOU. It might be a very liquid one, like a money market fund that holds T-bills and commercial paper, but it's still an IOU. See, your “cash on the sidelines” isn't sitting there idle, waiting to be put to work. The fact is that it has already been put to work.

And when you go to put your “cash on the sidelines” to work, what really happens is that your money market securities (T-bills, commercial paper, etc) now have to be sold to someone else. And at that moment, the cash on the sidelines that you had suddenly becomes somebody else's cash on the sidelines. And that same amount of cash on the sidelines will continue to exist until the borrowers pay it off.

Likewise, investors should not believe that the “cash on the balance sheets” of corporations might suddenly be used, in aggregate, for new investments and capital spending. That cash on their balance sheets has already been deployed as loans to the Federal government and to other companies.

Now, yes, if the government runs a surplus and retires its debt, in aggregate, or the other companies that borrowed the money generate new earnings and then pay off their debt, in aggregate, then those new savings that retire the T-bills and commercial paper then make it possible for the recipients to finance new investment, in aggregate. So as usual, savings equals investment, and new savings can finance new investment. But what investors often point to and call “cash on the sidelines” is really saving that has already been deployed and used either to offset the dissavings of government or to finance investments made by other companies. Once those savings have been spent, you can't, in aggregate, use the IOUs (in the form of money market securities) to do it again.

snip>

There is an important reason for these considerations here. As I've noted in recent months, it's likely that China and Japan will at least stabilize in their willingness to absorb the flood of government liabilities that they've been snapping up in recent years. That means that more of these liabilities will be forced into the hands of U.S. investors. As that happens, we're likely to observe an accumulation of “cash on the sidelines” that might look like a hopeful sign for stocks. It will be helpful to remember that the accumulating pile of “sideline cash” actually represents money already spent.

more...

[Roland99]

69. 2:25pm - Been a slow leak all day since the quick run-up

DJIA 11,117.00 +26.33 +0.24%
Nasdaq 2,119.44 -10.62 -0.50%
S&P 500 1,267.62 +2.14 +0.17%
Dow Util 418.42 +1.77 +0.42%
NYSE 8,177.34 +22.29 +0.27%
AMEX 1,936.09 -8.35 -0.43%
Russell 2000 710.60 +1.30 +0.18%
Semcond 424.24 -6.54 -1.52%
Gold future 626.10 -8.70 -1.37%
30-Year Bond 5.17% -0.00 -0.08%
10-Year Bond 5.13% -0.00 -0.04%

[Roland99]

71. Still a steady leak. DJIA virtually unchanged now. Up 1.30

[stop the bleeding]

72. Yep

we are in the middle of a bullshit rally - y'all better buy up:eyes:

[UpInArms]

73. Aon names Gen. Richard Myers to board (revolving door report)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2062C0EC%2D151A%2D4BA7%2D927C%2D815B8C4A0939%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Aon Corp. (AOC) said Monday former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Richard Myers has been elected to the company's board. Myers was joint chiefs chairman from Oct. 1, 2001, to Sept. 30, 2005, serving as a principal military adviser to President George W. Bush, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld and to the National Security Council. Aon, an insurance provider, is based in Chicago.

[UpInArms]

76. 3:03 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,095.73 +5.06 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq 2,110.91 -19.15 (-0.90%)
S&P 500 1,265.02 -0.46 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 5.128 -0.04 (-0.08%)

NYSE Volume 1,455,012,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,230,245,000

3:00 pm : Sellers continue to show their resolve as all three of the major averages now languish in negative territory. On the Dow, Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ 31.61 -1.24) 3.8% decline paces the way lower among the 11 components losing ground. Adding to the Nasdaq's struggles has been its inability to find support near a key technical level of 2112. DJ30 -0.16 DOT -1.2% NASDAQ -19.52 SOX -2.3% SP500 -0.97 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1694/1272/1.22 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1409/1811/968 mln

2:30 pm : Market continues to weaken as the absence of leadership from Technology continues to stall recovery efforts on the broader market. As the second most influential economic sector, accounting for a 15.4% weighting on the SnP 500, forecasts call for tech to show a disappointing 3.0% year/year decline in operating earnings growth.DJ30 +19.45 NASDAQ -14.00 SP500 +1.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1505/1436/1.07 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1213/1993/872 mln

2:00 pm : More of the same for the averages as blue chips and the tech-laden Nasdaq continue to trade in opposing directions. Chip stocks continue to fall out of favor, as evidenced by the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (SOXX) extending its year-to-date disappointment to more than 13% with a 2.1% pullback and the Semiconductor HOLDRs Trust (SMH) hitting its lowest level since May 2005. Linear Tech (LLTC 31.58 -0.52), Maxim Integrated (MXIM 29.14 -0.61) and Xilinx (XLNX 21.12 -0.37) are hitting new 52-week lows while Marvell Technology (MRVL 39.54 -2.19) and Applied Materials (AMAT 15.83 -0.25) are hovering just above the worst levels over the last 12 months.DJ30 +40.02 NASDAQ -8.22 SP500 +3.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1469/1456/978 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1225/1950/798 mln

[Roland99]

78. A little late-day faerie dust for the Dow. Up almost 30 now.

Pretty quiet day for the markets but volume is decent.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

79. "Sellers continue to show their resolve..."

:rofl:

[Roland99]

80. Closing numbers: And Alcoa posts 62% jump in profits (should be fun tom.)

DJIA 11,103.55 +12.88 +0.12%
Nasdaq 2,116.93 -13.13 -0.62%
S&P 500 1,267.34 +1.86 +0.15%
Dow Util 418.86 +2.21 +0.53%
NYSE 8,175.21 +20.16 +0.25%
AMEX 1,935.70 -8.74 -0.45%
Russell 2000 709.08 -0.22 -0.03%
Semcond 424.24 -6.54 -1.52%
Gold future 626.10 -8.70 -1.37%
30-Year Bond 5.17% -0.00 -0.08%
10-Year Bond 5.13% -0.00 -0.04%/b]

Lackluster day.

[stop the bleeding]

81. something bad just happened to Alcoa

cause the after hours trading has it down a whole dollar, and that seems like alot, I wonder if it has to do with their end of the year outlook.

[Roland99]

82. Hmm....not sure what. Article on Alcoa news >>>>

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD40B3372%2D4A47%2D4DE4%2D9123%2DCFD1E291151A%7D&siteid=

Alcoa, the world's biggest aluminum producer posted net income of $744 million, or 85 cents a share for the three months ended June 30, up 62% from the $460 million, or 52 cents a share, it earned a year ago.

Revenue for the three months ended June 30 rose 19% to $7.96 billion from $6.69 billion in the year-ago period.

Income from continuing operations totaled $752 million, or 86 cents a share, matching the number analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had expected.

The results include previously announced after tax charges of $35 million, or 4 cents a share, stemming from the company's bid to secure a new labor contract with its union workers and protect itself from the impact of a possible strike.

[stop the bleeding]

83. I don't know - earnings call is at 5pm EST

and right now the bid is 32.22 and the ask is 32.24 it closed around 33.50 at 4pm EST - somebody knows something, for it to drop a whole dollar in after hours right before the announcement sounds a little like insider info to me. especially when everyone should be rolling around in money on the news of 62% profit - whoopee

[54anickel]

86. Alcoa drops 3.2 pct after revenue miss

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=hotStocksNews&storyID=2006-07-10T203102Z_01_N10373770_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-STOCKS-AFTERTHEBELL-ALCOA.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Shares of Dow component Alcoa Inc. (AA.N: Quote, Profile, Research) fell more than 3 percent after the bell on Monday after the aluminum producer posted quarterly revenue shy of Wall Street's estimates, even though overall results were broadly in line.

The stock dropped 3.2 percent to $32.35 on the Inet electronic brokerage system, extending a drop that took the stock to $32.61 in composite after-hours trading, shortly after its results were announced. The stock ended regular trading at $33.41 on the New York Stock Exchange.



Edit to add better article here:
http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/metals/10295907.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

[Roland99]

88. Higher profits on lower revenue. Isn't that usually good? Low costs?

Or is this an omen of slower sales (and lower profits) down the road?

[54anickel]

89. Missed the Streets estimate - better article here (I added to OP)

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/markets/metals/10295907.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

[Roland99]

92. 0.75% off street estimates.

[UpInArms]

91. Lucent, Alcoa fall during late trading, WD-40 shares also dip

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BD15DCC01%2DB0CA%2D4E0F%2D9526%2DF2D4E5DB8816%7D&symbol=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Lucent Technologies Inc. shares dropped during Monday's evening-trading session after the telecom-equipment maker said that fiscal third-quarter earnings would come in at half the level expected by analysts.

Alcoa Inc. shares declined too after the world's largest aluminum maker reported second-quarter earnings that matched analysts' expectations.

WD-40 Co. also fell after the lubricant company gave a fiscal full-year forecast that was below Wall Street's estimates. Key Tronic Corp. surged after lifting earnings estimates.

Lucent (LU : 2.34, -0.03, -1.3% ) lost 6% to $2.20. The company, which agreed to merge with French rival Alcatel (ALA : 12.30, -0.13, -1.0% ) in April, said that it sees third-quarter income of 2 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected per-share earnings of 4 cents.

The company also forecast third-quarter revenue of $2.04 billion, below analyst estimates.

<snipping back to Alcoa>

Income from continuing operations totaled $752 million, or 86 cents a share, matching the number analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had expected. Quarterly revenue at Alcoa (AA : 33.41, -0.14, -0.4% ) fell slightly short of Wall Street estimates. See full story.

...more...

[54anickel]

84. Blather, if anyone is interested

4:20 pm : The major averages closed mixed Monday as investors turned their focus to earnings and paid particular attention to the growth prospects (or lack thereof) for all 10 economic sectors.

Wall Street forecasts for the SnP 500 now calling for aggregate Q2 operating earnings growth of 11-12%, up from single digits early in the quarter that threatened to snap a winning streak of 11 straight quarters of double-digit profit growth, was the main focus Monday. Alcoa (AA 33.41 -0.14), which was scheduled to kick off earnings season officially after the close, underpinned an early sense of optimism about companies' ability to grow profits in a rising interest rate environment.

Nonetheless, having already surged 16% year-to-date in anticipation of its largest quarterly profit since at least 1997, investors locked in recent gains ahead of Alcoa's report and became more concerned about the growth prospects within the influential Technology sector. As the year's worst performing sector, the market continued to price in the possibility that tech sector earnings may come in even worse than an anticipated decline of 3.0% from a year ago. The Computer Storage and Peripherals group turned in the day's worst performance after EMC Corp (EMC 10.41 -0.77) cut its Q2 outlook. Ongoing Tech worries were exacerbated after Merrill Lynch downgraded the entire sector to Underweight amid liquidity concerns and recommended investors look at higher quality and more defensive sectors.

When it was all said and done, that's exactly what many market participants did. Consumer Staples, helped by a 2.8% surge in CVS Corp (CVS 31.34 +0.88) after it posted stronger-than-expected June same-store sales growth of 8.4% and Tyson Foods (TSN 15.28 +0.83), which soared 5.7% after it was upgraded. Health Care, also due in part to its defensive characteristics, posted a respectable gain; but Financials provided the bulk of market leadership as typical Monday merger news lent some support for brokerage stocks.

A potential $4.4 bln takeover of Foot Locker (FL 27.40 +2.56) headed by Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Apollo Management was the day's biggest headline while Kraft Foods (KFT 30.21 +0.01) agreed to buy United Biscuits for about $1.1 bln. Kimco Realty (KIM 37.41 +0.54), meanwhile, agreed to acquire Pan Pacific Retail Properties (PNP 69.32 -0.68) for $2.9 bln.

Further underscoring investors' focus on strong balance sheets and subsequent earnings potential, the Energy sector's resilience in the face of continued consolidation in crude futures since hitting all-time highs above $75 per barrel last week was also worth noting. Standard and Poor's is currently forecasting operating earnings for the Energy sector to be up 25.1%, again providing the largest contribution to operating profit growth for the SnP 500.BTK -1.04% DJ30 +12.88 DJTA +0.37% DJUA +0.53% DOT -0.64% NASDAQ -13.13 NQ100 -0.83% R2K -0.04% SOX -2.2% SP400 -0.17% SP500 +1.86 XOI +0.17% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1674/1351/1.59 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1275/1968/1.28 bln

[Roland99]

87. Energy sector forecast to be up 25%. *25%* !!!!