STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 14 July

[ozymandius]

Friday July 14, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 922 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2029 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1729 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1690
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 13, 2006

Dow... 10,846.29 -166.89 (-1.52%)
Nasdaq... 2,054.11 -36.13 (-1.73%)
S&P 500... 1,242.29 -16.31 (-1.30%)
Gold future... 654.40 +3.20 (+0.49%)
30-Year Bond 5.12% -0.02 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.07% -0.03 (-0.57%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

TECHNICAL IMPRESSIONS

Gold and stocks have traded in the same direction since late 2005. However most recently, from late June to the present this relationship seems to have changed. While it may be too early to make such a call with a high degree of certainty, it appears that gold has decoupled from stocks. Whereas gold has resumed its uptrend, stocks have faltered. Since the normal relationship is for gold and stocks to be negatively correlated, maybe this inverse relationship is returning to its historic norm. If this is indeed happening, it is likely to hurt stocks’ performance in the intermediate term. The market has been liquidity driven, and this liquidity has been apparent in strength in gold expressed in US dollars, and concurrently rising stock prices. When gold, stocks, and commodities were hammered in early May, it was clearly due to a loss in worldwide liquidity because everything that traded on a public exchange simultaneously dropped sharply in price. However, over the last couple of weeks, while gold has risen, the performance of US stocks has been lackluster. If liquidity cannot pump this market, then what can? Or worse yet, if gold were to correct from its current levels, this would hurt stocks even more.

-cut-

Today’s Market

The market put in a very ugly day as practically all major US and international indices were down on higher trading volume than yesterday. SAP which has a P/E of 30 and a dividend of 0.7% reported a sales shortfall. I tried to read the press release, but I’m short on time tonight and gave up after the third “pro forma.”

In any case, as stated above, once technical wedge patterns are completed, the price action tends to not hang around too long around the trendline. And that is how the Nasdaq 100 acted today. At mid-morning, it made a gallant effort to get back to neutral, but then failed and finished near its worst level of the day. In the long and intermediate term, there are warnings everywhere that the bear market is likely to be upon us. Here’s one that is perhaps not as obvious. While this is not in any way a recommendation to buy or sell, the Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX) made a new 52-week high yesterday and was up again today. While many of the US market indices probably peaked in May, BEARX put in its bottom in early ’06. Turns out, bullish long term charts are not impossible to find in this market.

Hit particularly hard today were retailers such as department stores. J.C. Penney, Federated, Sears, and Target were all down on high volume. These stocks are on a watch list for entering from the bearish perspective.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports-a-plenty

8:30 AM Business Inventories May
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.4%

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Jun
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.6%

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Jun
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.6%

8:30 AM Retail Sales Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.1%

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.3%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.5%

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Jul
Briefing Forecast 85.0
Market Expects 85.5
Prior 84.9

10:00 AM Business Inventories May
Briefing Forecast 0.4%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior 0.4%

[saigon68]

14. Great Cartoon Ozy

OUTSTANDING :-) :-)

Thanks for all your hard work !! :-)

[ozymandius]

16. Thanks Saigon!

always a pleasure :thumbsup:

[acmejack]

19. I second that!

You do a great job & we (The Imperial we) appreciate it Oz!

[UpInArms]

28. 8:30 EST Reports Tumbling in (Surprise!):

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS, EX-GAS UP 0.1%

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. JUNE IMPORT PRICES EX-FUELS UP 2.2% YR-OVER-YR

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. JUNE NON-FUEL IMPORT PRICES RISE 0.7%

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. 2Q RETAIL SALES UP 0.9% VS. 1Q

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. JUNE NON-PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES RISE 0.4%

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. JUNE AUTO SALES FALL 1.4%

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. JUNE IMPORT PRICES RISE 0.1% VS 0.4% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. JUNE GASOLINE SALES UP1.1%

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. RETAIL SALES UP 5.9% Y-OY

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. MAY RETAIL SALES UNREVISED AT 0.1% GAIN

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS UP 0.3% VS. 0.4% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES FALL 0.1% VS. 0.4% GAIN EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

29. U.S. retail sales fall 0.l% in June (eCONomists expected increase)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B48607632%2D7A8E%2D4F8C%2DA3C7%2D285BD1F9F16D%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumers cut back in June, sending retail sales down 0.1% for the month, the Commerce Department reported Friday. It was the second straight month of tepid retail sales. Sales rose 0.1% in May. Retail sales are up 5.9% in the past year. Weak auto sales led the decline in June, falling a surprising 1.4% measured by dollar volume. Excluding the drop in auto sales, retail sales rose 0.3% in June after climbing a downwardly revised 0.7% in May. Economists were forecasting stronger sales in June, with the consensus expectation of 0.4% for total sales and for sales excluding autos.

[UpInArms]

31. spinning away!

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B548AFF34%2D6D54%2D4D52%2DB0D3%2DAA59ADC77F75%7D&symbol=

Retail sales fall 0.1% in June
Excluding surprising 1.4% drop in autos, sales rise 0.3%

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumers cut back in June, sending retail sales down 0.1% for the month, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

<snip>

Weak auto sales led the decline in June, falling a surprising 1.4% measured by dollar volume. Earlier, automakers had reported a slight increase in unit sales in June. Consumers are buying more cars, but they are smaller and cheaper.

Excluding the drop in auto sales, retail sales rose 0.3% in June after climbing a downwardly revised 0.7% in May.

<snip>

The weak retail report will weigh heavily on Federal Reserve policymakers next month when they meet to discuss whether to raise interest rates again. Most economic indicators in the past months have fallen below expectations and are pointing to a slowdown in the economy.

<snip>

Gasoline sales rose 1.1% in June, despite slightly lower prices at the pump. Excluding gasoline, retail sales fell 0.2%.

...more...

[UpInArms]

30. U.S. June import prices rise 0.1%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B315BACE8%2DBCD8%2D4702%2D92E2%2DF27185EBC4BB%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. import prices rose 0.1% in June, the Labor Department said Friday. Economists were expecting import prices to rise 0.4%. Imported petroleum prices fell 1.4% in June, the biggest drop since last November. Prices of imports excluding petroleum rose 0.4%. Import prices excluding all fuels rose 0.7%, matching a record since the index began publication in 2002. Meanwhile, prices of U.S. exports rose 0.8%, the biggest increase since last September. Prices of agricultural exports rose 2.4%, the largest increase since March 2005.

[Roland99]

37. Petroleum import prices fell, eh? Tell that to my wallet.

[UpInArms]

59. UMich Sentiment for July at 83.0 (we are NOT happy)

9:47 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. JULY UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 83.0 VS 84.9 IN JUNE

9:47 AM ET 7/14/06 UMICH SENTIMENT FOR JULY BELOW CONSENSUS 85.3

[UpInArms]

63. Business Inventories Rise 1.6% - Most in 12 years

10:00 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. MAY BUSINESS SALES UP 1.4%

10:00 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. MAY RETAIL AUTO INVENTORIES UP 3.2%, MOST IN 7 YEARS

10:00 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. MAY RETAIL INVENTORIES RISE 1.6%, MOST IN 12 YEARS

10:00 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. MAY INVENTORY-SALES RATIO FALLS BACK TO RECORD LOW 1.25

10:00 AM ET 7/14/06 U.S. MAY INVENTORIES RISE 0.8% VS. 0.4% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B09DC849F%2D554A%2D4094%2D94D3%2D9352CEEBC0FD%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Inventories at U.S. businesses tightened further in May, as sales grew faster than inventories, the Commerce Department said Friday. Inventories increased 0.8%, double the 0.4% expected by economists. Sales, meanwhile, increased 1.4%. The inventory-to-sales ratio fell back to a record low 1.25. Auto inventories increased 3.2%, the fastest gain in seven years. For the retail sector as a whole, sales rose 0.1% in May while inventories increased 1.6%, the biggest gain in 12 years. Excluding autos, retail inventories rose 0.8%, the biggest gain in a year and a half.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices hover above $78 per barrel

SINGAPORE - Oil prices hovered above $78 per barrel Friday, near record highs, as intensifying violence in the Middle East raised concerns of a possible disruption of oil supply.

"We are certainly in uncharted territory," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "I wouldn't be surprised if $80 is attained soon with this slew of geopolitical events in a tight market."

Oil prices are being pushed higher by rising global demand and worries that the world's limited supply cushion would not be adequate to offset a lengthy disruption to output in major producing countries, such as Iran or Nigeria. There are also concerns about the risks hurricanes pose to U.S. production.

"We haven't even taken into account a potential hurricane in the United States, so getting to $80 and beyond this summer seems quite inevitable," Shum said. "But if these Middle East events somehow get resolved, prices could also drop sharply."

more

[ozymandius]

4. China to allow foreign exploration in key oil, gas blocks

BEIJING (AFP) - China will allow foreign companies a rare chance to conduct exploration for oil and gas in parts of the resource-rich Tarim Basin in the northwest of the country, the country's top energy company says.

The China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), the nation's largest oil and gas producer, said it will invite bids from foreign companies for exploration in nine potential oil and gas blocks in the basin.

"We're inviting foreign partners to jointly explore the largest gas and oil basin in the Chinese mainland," CNPC, the parent of PetroChina, said in a statement on its website.

It said several foreign oil companies had already expressed an interest in participating in projects in the Tarim Basin but provided no names.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Brent crude hits record high above 78 dollars in London

LONDON (AFP) - The price of Brent North Sea crude oil hit a record high point of 78.03 dollars per barrel in electronic trading here.

Brent North Sea crude for August delivery had closed at 76.69 dollars on Thursday.

very short

[4dsc]

23. Why are gas prices so high??

Why peak oil is probably about now..


http://www.theoildrum.com/storyonly/2006/3/1/3402/63420

[UpInArms]

68. Bulletin: Crude Futures Trade at Record-High $77.95 on Nymex

BULLETIN>> CRUDE FUTURES TRADE AT RECORD-HIGH $77.95 ON NYMEX

[Roland99]

96. Gas here just went back to $3.09 across the city

Every Speedway changed at once.

Some had dropped to $2.91 as of this morning.

[UpInArms]

105. Oil climbs to never-before-seen levels as world tensions rise

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BEBA5E96C%2D92F5%2D43E0%2DBCF5%2D35DFB4862BB1%7D&symbol=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures climbed to never-before-seen levels Friday and analysts predict $80 prices as early as next week, with violence between Israel and Lebanon and the West's quarrels with Iran and North Korea fueling traders' anxiety over the state of oil supplies as countries begin to take sides on the various conflicts around the world.

If Israel proposes to blame Iran for instigating the attacks, there could be an escalation in military operations, said John Person, president of National Futures Advisory Service.

"This is putting in a new price 'terror premium' in crude oil which could take oil past $80 by late next week," he said.

That's much earlier than many analysts expected, and that means prices could climb beyond $80, he said, noting the he "would not rule out $100-$120 given a supply disruption event such as an oil-line sabotage or a hurricane in the Gulf region," he said. See Commodities Corner on hurricane-related commodity bets.

<snip>

The contract has since pulled back a bit to trade at $77.25, up 55 cents. It's trading more than 4% above last Friday's close of $74.09.

August unleaded gasoline was up 1.37 cents at $2.315 a gallon after a contract high of $2.345. Last week, it closed at $2.2394. At the retail level, the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline stood at $2.958 Friday, up 27% from the same time a year ago, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge report. See the latest data.

...more...

[UpInArms]

113. August Crude @ $77.35 bbl - NatGas @ $6.30 mln btus

12:44 PM ET 7/14/06 AUGUST CRUDE UP 65 CENTS AT $77.35/BRL AFTER A RECORD $77.95

12:44 PM ET 7/14/06 AUGUST NATURAL GAS UP 17.1 CENTS AT $6.30/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

129. August Crude @ $77.70 bbl - NatGas @ $6.45 mln btus

2:05 PM ET 7/14/06 AUGUST CRUDE CLIMBS CLOSER TO THE SESSION'S RECORD HIGH

2:05 PM ET 7/14/06 AUGUST CRUDE LAST UP $1, OR 1.3%, AT $77.70/BRL

2:05 PM ET 7/14/06 AUGUST NATURAL GAS TAPS 3-WEEK HIGH OF $6.45/MLN BTU

[UpInArms]

136. August Crude closes @ $77.03 bbl - NatGas @ $6.347 mln btus

2:59 PM ET 7/14/06 AUGUST CRUDE ENDS THE WEEK WITH A 4% GAIN

2:59 PM ET 7/14/06 AUGUST NATURAL GAS CLOSES AT A THREE-WEEK HIGH

2:59 PM ET 7/14/06 AUGUST NATURAL GAS UP 21.8 CENTS TO CLOSE AT $6.347/MLN BTUS

2:59 PM ET 7/14/06 AUGUST NATURAL GAS UP 14.9% FOR THE WEEK

2:56 PM ET 7/14/06 AUGUST CRUDE CLOSES AT A RECORD $77.03/BRL, UP 33 CENTS

[Roland99]

142. How much NG does the US import?

Can't imagine why NG costs would soar 15% in a week.

[ozymandius]

6. Putin's Russia is center stage for G8 summit

ST PETERSBURG, Russia (Reuters) - Group of Eight leaders will gloss over differences on energy security at a summit in Russia this weekend, saving the sharpest exchanges for first-time host President Vladimir Putin over democracy.

Away from the low-key formal agenda for the summit, diplomats say leaders will discuss steps to contain the nuclear programs of Iran and North Korea, while U.S. and Russian negotiators are thrashing out a trade deal for their two presidents to sign.

-cut-

Bush arrives in Russia's old imperial capital from Germany on Friday. He has said he hopes for "candid" talks with Putin. But he says he will not lecture the Kremlin leader and he brings with him two deals to sweeten the pill for Russia.

If it is agreed in time, Bush and Putin will sign a trade agreement paving the way for Russia to join the World Trade Organization. A deal on Russia and the United States sharing nuclear fuel and technology with third countries will also be on the table.

more

[ozymandius]

7. Swiss franc reclaiming "safe haven" mantle

The Swiss franc finally appeared to be reclaiming its tarnished mantle as the ultimate "safe haven" currency on Thursday.

The Swissie has confounded market-watchers this year by resolutely refusing to rise even at times of heightened risk, such as during the sharp falls in equity and commodity prices witnessed in May.

Indeed, as of Wednesday the Swissie was trading 1.3 per cent weaker against the euro and 1.2 per cent lighter against the euro compared to the levels it was trading at on May 10, prior to the market turmoil.

more

[ozymandius]

8. BOJ ends era of zero percent interest

TOKYO - Japan's central bank raised interest rates Friday for the first time in six years, ending an era of zero percent interest and sending the clearest signal yet that the world's second-largest economy has pulled out of a decade-long slump.

The decision boosts the Bank of Japan's key overnight call rate to 0.25 percent from 0.069 percent — effectively zero.

The move was widely anticipated by analysts and investors, and puts Japan in line with monetary policy in the United States and Europe, where central banks are also tightening the reins on easy money.

-cut-

Japan lowered rates to zero in 2001 in an attempt to jump-start the beleagured economy and wipe out a destructive trend of sprialing price declines, known as deflation, that eroded corporate earnings and workers' paychecks.

more

[ozymandius]

9. FTSE under pressure as oil hits new high

London equities came under renewed pressure on Friday as the escalating crisis in the Middle East pushed the oil price sharply higher.

With Israel continuing its attacks on targets in Lebanon and Gaza, crude oil jumped to a record $78.40 a barrel.

With the region seemingly on the brink of all-out war, global equity markets fell sharply, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 1.5 per cent to 10,846.29 overnight and Japan's Nikkei closing 1.7 per cent lower at 14,845 points.

Given the circumstance, the FTSE 100 index probably held up better than expected, partly because oil stocks make up a large proporation of the benchmark.

more

[ozymandius]

10. Sharp opening losses for Europe

European equities markets moved sharply lower at the opening on Friday after escalating violence in the Middle East pushed crude oil to to a record high and prompted sharp falls in global equity markets in the previous session.

The FTSE Eurotop 300 fell 9.8 points, or 0.8 per cent, to 1,283.78 while the German Xetra Dax dropped 75 points, or 1.4 per cent, to 5,452.88, while the French CAC40 lost 56.2 points, or 1.2 per cent, to 4,796.27. In London, the FTSE 100 fell 47.3 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 5,717.70.

Spread betting companies in London were calling for the FTSE 100, German Dax and French CAC40 to open between 43 and 70 points lower.

more

[JNelson6563]

12. I'm not fooled by the shiney wrapper

the futures for our markets are wrapped in. I suspect those reports coming out today won't be all that great and that we may also follow Euro stocks into the crapper (again).

Has the reckoning begun? I think it has.

Julie---busily sewing tablets of gold into my gowns

[ozymandius]

15. This is also CNN, mind you.

They have a habit of hyperbole and excessive cheerleading. I remember a headline that read "The Bull Is Back!" - evidenced by the amount of e-mail spam the writer received. But the markets went nowhere (quelle surprise!).

CNN/Money is good for futures numbers after one wades through the syrupy slop.

...and good morning Julie! :donut: I hope everything is great with you and yours.

:hi:

[JNelson6563]

22. CNBC's no better

Numbers come out and the next step in the program is always Steve Leisman (sp?) to tell us all about why these are good numbers, no matter how bad they are. It was kinda fun to watch 'em soiling themselves yesterday. They really squirm when the feces hits the fan and it's rewarding to see when one recalls their usual demeanor.

And my best to you and yours too Ozy! Hope they aren't workin' you too hard at your "real job". :hi:

Julie

[stop the bleeding]

25. I watch Bloomberg on the talk box and I am with you

on the Futures, in fact they have been sliding since I left for work. Also I think the reports will be "interesting". The only slight positive note was GE so far, and even though they made their numbers they are still down compared to last year. If today ends up being a 3rd hard down day in row I wouldn't be surprised.


*sipping coffee* ahhhh

[rosesaylavee]

18. Has Julie

considered selling those special gowns on eBay? I bet there would be quite the clamoring for them soon.

[JNelson6563]

21. I'll be taking them when I flee the country

for someplace more stable when all hell breaks loose here. ;-) Since I'll be travelling light, I'll probably put my purse collection up for bid on e-bay. Just for shits and giggles it would be fun to toss a couple of nice coach purses into the mix at $10 a pop just to watch the fur fly. haha

:toast:

[RawMaterials]

33. You wont be able to leave

with out taking the mark of the beast


http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/13/pf/rfid_passports/index.htm

e-Passports: Ready or not here they come



NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Imagine being overseas and your identity being available for the taking - your nationality, your name, your passport number. Everything.

They'll have radio frequency identification (RFID) tags and are meant to cut down on human error of immigration officials, speed the processing of visitors and safeguard against counterfeit passports.

Yet critics are concerned that the security benefit of RFID technology, which combines silicon chips with antennas to make data accessible via radio waves, could be vastly outweighed by security threats to the passport holder.

"Basically, you've given everybody a little radio-frequency doodad that silently declares 'Hey, I'm a foreigner,'" says author and futurist Bruce Sterling, who lectures on the future of RFID technology. "If nobody bothers to listen, great. If people figure out they can listen to passport IDs, there will be a lot of strange and inventive ways to exploit that for criminal purposes."

[JNelson6563]

103. I hope the gold interferes with transmission

Hope springs eternal.

Thanks for posting the scary story. Lots of scary changes coming I suspect.

Juile

[54anickel]

43. Pay No Attention to the Man Behind the Curtain

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/schiff/schiff071306.html

In recent weeks, as the word "stagflation" has made a few appearances on the national media stage, many bullish skeptics, such as CNBC's Steve Liesman, have downplayed the current "mini" stagflation with contrasts to the "real" variety of the 1970's and early 1980's. Such confidence however fails to recognize that we now measure economic activity and inflation with very different yardsticks than we did when Disco Duck topped the charts and Jimmy Carter wore sweaters. In reality, changes in the methodologies mean that the statistics bear as much resemblance as an 8-track to an iPod, and only serve to obscure the genuine threat we now face.

In the 1970's and early 1980's, "core CPI" included housing prices, and the basket was neither altered to reflect substitutions (in which stuff that had gone up in price is replaced by stuff that did not), nor were prices hedonically adjusted (a 5% increase transformed into a 3% decrease based on a subjective assessment of quality improvement). Similarly, changes have hit GDP assessments. For instance, 25 years ago GDP was calculated using a more honest deflator; business fixed investment expenditures were not hedonically adjusted ($5 billion spent on computers recorded as $50 billion, as computing power increased by a factor of 10 over the benchmark year), and phantom payments were not included (imputed income on owner-occupied housing counted as rents, or free checking accounts recorded as interest payments).

In addition, comparisons using "core" inflation numbers, which was the case in Liesman's example, leave out energy prices, which have been particularly effected by the current round of inflation, and food, which in my opinion is about to follow in energy's footsteps. In fact, as I write this commentary, crude oil prices are up almost three dollars per barrel today alone, hitting a new record high just shy of $78 dollars a barrel. In the last five years, crude oil prices have risen more than four-fold, with no end to the rally anywhere in sight.

Over the years, the government has managed to "solve" economic problems merely by changing the way they are measured. By re-jiggering the manner in which CPI and GDP are calculated, the government misrepresents the true health of the economy, making it easier for incumbents to be re-elected. President Bush demonstrated this to perfection in his televised speech earlier this week. Despite a building sense among the population that the economy is shaky, the President was able to effectively say, "What are you complaining about, look how good you have it? Inflation is just 2.5% and the economy is growing at 4% per year. Why back in the seventies and eighties people had to struggle with 8% - 10% inflation and 1%- 2% growth." The reality is that today's generation is experiencing similar struggles.

more...

[zoeb]

13. I read a report that says current stock market is mirroring

The 1987 market just before it's crash. I'm worried.:scared:

[ozymandius]

17. All it needs is a trigger.

I agree that the dynamics are very similar. Crashes always come from nowhere though.

[stop the bleeding]

24. Unstable ME = higher oil = overall higher uncertain times ahead

could that trigger be cocked and loaded?

Thank you BTW for all of the information :)

[belab13]

128. The Plunge Protection team

has been working double time recently as evidenced by the number and amount of repurchase agreements being approved recently.
$10 billion released today probably being manouevered into market futures as we speak.

http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

I'm buying a select group of commodity stocks today anticipating a bounce in the general markets soon.. I'll continue buying the dips until the big one comes.... Could be today could be tomorrow, could be next year. Definitely not investment advice.

[ozymandius]

11. Wall St. may say 'So what'

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks were poised for a positive open Friday, even though oil set another intraday record high above $78 a barrel and violence between Hezbollah and Israel escalated.

At 6:03 a.m. ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures pointed to a positive start for the major indexes.

-cut-

One thing that could lift U.S. stocks is results from General Electric, the No. 2 company in terms of market capitalization. The diversified manufacturing, finance and media conglomerate is forecast to post a 7 cent gain in earnings per share to 47 cents, despite lower revenue.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/14/markets/stockswatch/index.htm

[saigon68]

20. 7 cent gain in earnings per share to 47 cents, despite lower revenue.

Undoubtedly due to job cuts

Fewer people whipped to do more work

[UpInArms]

26. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.95 Change +0.02 (+0.02%)

Dollar Strength Nearing End

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_technicals/Dollar_Strength_Nearing_End_1152872604916.html

EUR/USD – The decline is looking rather tired on the hourly chart as evidenced by bullish divergence among oscillators and price. Still, the possibility does remain that EUR/USD slips a bit lower to test the 61.8% fibo of 1.2481-1.2859 at 1.2625. Additional support would be at the 78.6% fibo at 1.2562. If the reversal scenario plays out, then resistance is at a resisting trendline near 1.2700 with a break higher exposing yesterday’s high at 1.2730. Also, this next leg up would be a 3rd wave rally – which is often fast and furious. An impulsive move higher could stall at the confluence of the 61.8% fibo of 1.2859-1.2647 / 7/12 high at 1.2777/79.

<snip>

USD/JPY – From yesterday – “Right at the 200 day SMA is a potential resisting trendline on the daily. A rejection there could very well see a sharp decline back to the confluence of the 7/10 low / 38.2% fibo of 108.96-116.67 at 113.42/72.” This is exactly what we have seen (the first half at least) as the last 8 or so hours have been a wild ride for Yen traders. The spike highs on the hourly at 116.12 and 116.16 occurred near the 78.6% fibo of 116.67-113.42 at 115.97. Also evident on the hourly is bearish divergence with oscillators at the highs above 116.00. Maybe more convincing though is the fact that the spike to 116.16 was turned back right at the confluence of the 200 day SMA / trendline from 4/13. If 116.16 holds as resistance, then the first significant support zone is at the area between yesterday’s low and the 38.2% fibo of 113.42-116.16 at 114.97-115.11.

<snip>

USD/CAD – USD/CAD has retraced back to the former breakout point of 1.1283 but currently trades in a tight range just above the 1.1300 figure. The wave structure shows a 5 wave bull sequence from 1.1039 to 1.1399 but the ensuing correction is not as clear. This in itself suggests that there is more to the downside before the next leg up. What we have then is the first (a wave) of 3 (a-b-c) corrective waves from 1.1399 to 1.1284 and the second (b wave) from 1.1284 to 1.1325. The rally from 1.1284 has retraced 38.2% of the decline from 1.1399. Additional gains would target the 50% fibo at 1.1341 with the 3rd wave of the correction eventually testing fibo levels of 1.1039-1.1399 at 1.1261 (38.2%) or 1.1219 (50%).

...more...

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: The Long Awaited End Of ZIRP?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__The_Long_1152827205101.html

US Advanced Retail Sales (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)

Consensus: 0.4%
Previous: 0.1%

Outlook: Despite rising gas prices, US Advance Retail Sales are forecast to increase 0.4% for the month of June. The increase will extend the positive run to four straight months, and notch an impressive 10 of the last 12, indicating consistent growth in US domestic demand. However, the increase is below the average for the past year, which itself could indicate a possible pace reduction even as growth remains positive. Oil prices recently hit an all-time high surpassing $76 per barrel in July, but that statistic will have to wait for the next release. However, in other more consumer specific roles, at the start of the summer driving season national gas prices had approached $3 a gallon - which had long been held as a "tipping point" in the American consumer economy. Wal-Mart, which accounts for almost 10% of US retail sales, reported the smallest year-over-year increase in June since April 2005, providing a good projection of how stores nationwide fared. Also helping to boost the numbers was a reported rebound in auto-sales.

Previous: The 0.1% rise in retail sales in May was the slowest pace in three months, as sharp jumps in gasoline prices and associated costs hit consumers in the wallet. Excluding services stations, the reading actually produced a 0.1% contraction for the period. With producer prices rising, hurting executives have become more willing to pass the bill onto the consumer, which itself is pressuring the Fed to raise rates to rein in the resultant inflation. Retail sales are a crucial measure for the economy as they account for just under half of all consumer spending in the United states, which in itself accounts for 70% of GDP. Building materials, garden supplies, and automotive sales all showed substantial declines.


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Survey (June P) (13:45 GMT; 09:45 EST)

Consensus: 85.5
Previous: 84.9

Outlook: The University of Michigan Confidence survey is expected to rise to its highest level in three months, building off of the consumer sentiment improvement in June. The indicator, a survey of personal confidence in business conditions, historically has a positive correlation to retail sales. As consumer spending constitutes the bulk of the US economy, the measure of optimism from their point of view becomes very important. An increase in confidence will be a hard hill to climb. A continued assault on disposable income has been waged by consistently high gasoline prices and every growing mortgage payments. Making a surprise contribution to a possible shift in sentiment will be last Friday’s job’s data. American’s likely took note of the fact that NFPs fell short Wall Street’s consensus, but the persistent additions to payrolls, a jobless rate at a five-year low and wage growth that continues to pace inflation should offer them some solace.

Previous: Confidence rose in June, bring the U of M’s gauge of the emotion to 84.9 following the dip to 79.1 in May, ending a three month downtrend from 88.9. The number is still below the yearly high of 91.2 but above the all-time low of 74.2 established in October of 2005. The increased consumer confidence indicates a possible improvement in retail sales - as noted above, consensus opinion has retail sales improving from 0.1% in May (79.1 U of M survey) to 0.4% in June (84.9 U of M survey). A look at the yearly numbers also shows a positive, if not direct, correlation, with declines in the University survey followed by a decline in retail sales.

...more...

[UpInArms]

38. Dollar trims gains after retail sales, import prices data

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2DD1C762%2DD04B%2D4C6F%2D9490%2D534E3A2CC6A1%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar trimmed gains early Friday in the wake of weaker-than-expected retail sales data. U. S. consumers cut back in June, sending retail sales down 0.1% for the month, the Commerce Department said. Excluding the drop in auto sales, retail sales rose 0.3% in June. Economists were forecasting stronger sales, with the consensus expectation of 0.4% for total sales and for sales excluding autos. Separately, U.S. import prices rose 0.1% in June, the Labor Department said. Economists were expecting import prices to rise 0.4%. The dollar had earlier risen to two-week highs versus the euro and yen after the Bank of Japan raised its interest rate to 0.25% as expected and signaled that rates will remain low for some time. The euro was last down 0.1% at $1.2677, while the dollar was up 0.3% at 115.75 yen.

and that "gain" was in gasoline :eyes:

[54anickel]

111. "A Feel Good Story" (Yesterday's Pfenning)

http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=830

Good day... Well... Another month of "The Trade Deficit wasn't as bad as expected" is in the cards, as yesterday's printing of the Trade Deficit was "only" $63.8 billion instead of the forecast of $65 billion... Don't let the fact that May's $63.8 billion was almost 1% higher than April's figure get in the way of a "feel good" story...

And "feel good" stories were all over the board yesterday after the printing. The media bit and took the bait hook, line and sinker! Why can't people look at the number for what it is, instead of getting all lathered up when it isn't as "bad" as forecast? The number was $63.8 billion, folks... $63.8 billion... No wait, let me repeat one more time... $63.8 billion!

So... Guess what happened when the "feel good" stories hit the screens? You are correct, sir! The dollar rallied... Again, let me say that one day, these dolts that buy dollars because the Trade Deficit isn't as bad as expected are going to wish they hadn't... But for now... The dollar gets to bask in the sun... Oh, it's still down over 7% to the euro this year, but that's chicken feed to what I believe is going to be the end result!

Well... With the bombs in India and things heating up in the Middle East (again), the Risk Aversion that we saw throughout May and June is back on the docket. The Emerging Markets are all looking a little soft around the belly again, just when it looked as though it was safe to stick a toe back into the Emerging Markets water again... India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico, and Iceland all head up that list of Emerging Markets...

The Canadian dollar/loonie has really taken the Bank of Canada's (BOC) pause in interest rates hard... The Belle of the Ball has turned into a pumpkin... And I expect even more selling of loonies in the near future... But as I said yesterday, I'm not throwing in the towel altogether, because of what I believe commodities can still do, which plays into the pricing of the loonie...

more...

[UpInArms]

27. Global worry sends gold to highest level since May 30

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BCF53C4E8%2DABC4%2D4587%2DB27A%2D89FE9214BCE1%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures rose in electronic trade early Friday, climbing to over $660 an ounce, as violence between Israel and Lebanon sent crude oil prices to unprecedented highs.

Gold for August delivery was last up $7.60 at $662.0 an ounce in electronic trading, reaching its highest level since May 30.
Other metals prices were mixed. Silver added 20 cents at $11.685 an ounce and copper rose 3.35 cents at $3.710 a pound. Platinum declined $8.0 at $1,256.0 an ounce and palladium was down 5 cents at $334.0 an ounce.

Intensifying its attacks on Lebanon Thursday, Israel continued to bomb Beirut's international airport, major roads, power and communications infrastructure. Since Thursday, Israel has imposed an air and sea blockade on Lebanon in response to the kidnappings of two Israeli soldiers along the Israel-Lebanon border by Hezbollah on Wednesday.

"Buying in response to the Lebanon attacks allowed gold to close at $652.90 and follow through bidding in after-market trade triggered a gradual rally through $655 to $665.75 by the time trade started in Asia," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com.

...more...

[UpInArms]

115. Gold @ $666.70 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BCF53C4E8%2DABC4%2D4587%2DB27A%2D89FE9214BCE1%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures rallied afresh Friday, climbing to over $660 an ounce, as violence between Israel and Lebanon drove crude oil prices to unprecedented highs, fuelling safe-haven demand for gold.

Gold for August delivery was last up $12.30 at $666.70 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, reaching its highest level since May 30.

With the escalation of violence and political tensions around the world this week, gold's safe-haven allure has spurred buying.

On Thursday, Israel intensified its attacks on Lebanon, continuing to bomb Beirut's international airport, major roads, power and communications infrastructure. Earlier this week, deadly train bombings in India's financial center of Mumbai and developments surrounding Iran's and North Korea's nuclear ambitions have also boosted demand for gold.

Responding to the deterioration of security in the Middle East, the U.S. stock market tanked Friday. In contrast, crude for August delivery rose as high as $78.40 a barrel in electronic trade, the highest ever level for a front-month contract. Oil later settled back and was last trading up $1.05 at $77.75 a barrel. See crude futures.

<snip>

Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco.com, said: "Fast approaching the $670 target, gold now stands poised to spring to $680 and $700 in short order, should any single geopolitical trouble spot erupt into a larger or more serious conflagration." Investors' preference for cash and safe-haven assets is "quite clear," Nadler said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

130. Gold closes at highest level since May 23 - @ $668 oz

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BCF53C4E8%2DABC4%2D4587%2DB27A%2D89FE9214BCE1%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures closed higher Friday, rallying to over $660 an ounce, as violence between Israel and Lebanon drove crude oil prices to unprecedented highs, fuelling safe-haven demand for gold.

Gold for August delivery finished up $13.60 at $668.0 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest closing level since May 23. The yellow metal gained 5.2% this week.

"Fast approaching the $670 target, gold now stands poised to spring to $680 and $700 in short order, should any single geopolitical trouble spot erupt into a larger or more serious conflagration," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco.com.

Israel intensified its attacks on Lebanon, continuing to bomb Beirut's international airport, major roads, power and communications infrastructure. Earlier this week, deadly train bombings in India's financial center of Mumbai and developments surrounding Iran's and North Korea's nuclear ambitions also boosted demand for gold.

Responding to the deterioration of security in the Middle East, the U.S. stock market tanked Friday, and is down more than 400 points in three days. Crude for August delivery rallied to as high as $77.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, a record intraday level for a front-month contract in the regular day session. Earlier in electronic trade, crude hit an all-time high of $78.40. See crude futures.

[UpInArms]

32. Treasuries extend gains after US June retail sales

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-14T123633Z_01_NYG000281_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-URGENT-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices slightly extended gains on Friday after a weaker-than-expected June retail sales report, which hinted that consumer spending was softer than previously thought.

U.S. June retail sales slipped 0.1 percent, below economists' median forecast for a rise of 0.4 percent. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.3 percent, compared with economists' forecasts for a rise of 0.4 percent.

Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> were up 5/32 in price for a yield of 5.047 percent, versus about 5.055 percent before the report and versus 5.07 percent late on Thursday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.

[UpInArms]

69. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds reserves through four-day system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-14T133312Z_01_N14343187_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Friday it added temporary reserves to the banking system through four-day system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.25 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[Roland99]

97. Good thing the deficit is being reduced.

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

34. College Costs and Sallie Mae, Rising Hand in Hand

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/14/business/14sallie.html?ex=1310529600&en=7536d00984c03b89&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

The escalating costs of higher education may be a burden to young adults and their parents, but they are an opportunity for student loan companies, both specialty finance companies and the big banks.

More young people are going to college, but federal grants are not rising commensurately. The maximum that students can borrow in federally guaranteed loans has remained relatively flat for years. And on July 1, the government raised interest rates on these loans for the second consecutive year.

While the student loan market has become more competitive, the biggest lender, the SLM Corporation, better known as Sallie Mae, has been widening its reach and depth in ways that make some traditional banks squirm.

<snip>

On top of its bread-and-butter business of extending loans to students — it has a $127 billion portfolio and 10 million borrowers — Sallie Mae has built, largely through acquisition, a major debt-collection arm that serves large clients like the Internal Revenue Service. Sallie Mae has also picked up a coveted type of banking charter (something that Wal-Mart is seeking) to compete more aggressively with banks in the lucrative area of private loans, which are becoming a hotter product as tuition rises.

...more...

[UpInArms]

35. Katrina Victims Say Agents Advised Against Flood Coverage

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/14/business/14insure.html?ex=1310529600&en=68a9327a20d8261a&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

GULFPORT, Miss., July 13 — Six weeks before Hurricane Katrina tore up the Gulf Coast of Mississippi last August, Dr. Munson Hinman went to see his insurance agent to buy flood coverage for his home near the beach.

He had a blank check in his pocket, but, Dr. Hinman testified in Federal District Court here on Tuesday, the agent talked him out of buying the coverage.

“He didn’t tell me directly not to get it,’’ Dr. Hinman recalled. “But in a roundabout way he said it wasn’t necessary. He was emphatic about that it wasn’t necessary.’’

Dr. Hinman, a chiropractor, was testifying in a lawsuit against Nationwide Insurance that could force the Ohio company and other insurers to pay out billions of dollars for claims of flood damage from Hurricane Katrina and other storms that they have previously denied. Mr. Hinman’s home was heavily damaged in the hurricane.

<snip>

But Richard F. Scruggs, a Pascagoula lawyer who rose to prominence as he helped win a $250 billion settlement from the tobacco industry a few years ago, argues that in selling home insurance with many references to windstorms and hurricanes, Nationwide and other insurers led customers to believe that any hurricane damage — whether from wind or water — would be covered.

...more...

[Robbien]

36. BOP: If the Deficit's Decreasing, Why is Total Debt Increasing?

by Hale Stewart

A few days ago, President Bush announced "good economic news": the deficit was shrinking because of his policies! Everybody in the Right Wing Noise Machine was happy and thrilled. There would soon be peace in the land etc.... There is one problem with this. If the deficit is decreasing, why is total debt outstanding increasing?

First, I want to give full credit to the blog Calculated Risk for this observation. For those of you who like economic blogs, this is a great blog with many great and solid observations and analysis.


All of the information below is from the Bureau of Public Debt.


In 2002, the total deficit was $157 billion. Yet total debt outstanding increased from $5.807 trillion to $6.228 trillion, or $421 billion.

In 2003, the total deficit was $377 billion, yet total debt outstanding increased from $6.228 trillion to $6.783 trillion, or $555 billion.


In 2004, the total deficit was $412 billion, yet total debt outstanding increased from $6.783 trillion to $7.379 trillion, or $596 billion.


In 2005, the total deficit was $318 billion, yet total debt outstanding increased from $7.379 trillion to $7.932 trillion or $553 billion.


So far in 2006, total debt outstanding has increased from $7.932 to $8.413 trillion, or $481 trillion.

much more
http://www.bopnews.com/archives/006542.html#6542

[UpInArms]

39. Dimson's "budget deficit" means shitto - dooda - nada - zippo

as he has put everything "off budget" - the wars (plural)- and everything is an "emergency" so funding is "off budget" - because as you know, "we just didn't anticipate those levies being breached".

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

40. Whee! Good News! Stocks set to rebound after Mideast-inspired sell-off

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B888DCFDF%2DC009%2D4693%2DB498%2D6EA8FFEBB0B2%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock futures are pointing to a modest rebound in early trading Friday after two sessions of heavy selling linked to rising tensions in the Middle East, but rising oil prices, a weak retail sales report and some disappointment over General Electric Co's in-line results will likely cap any gains.

Dow futures were up 19 points at 10,905, Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2.25 points to 1,492 while S&P 500 futures added 3.30 points to 1,250.80.

"With the geopolitical situation having wreaked havoc yesterday, hopefully we may get a little bit of bounce off of that today," said Owen Fitzpatrick, managing director private wealth management at Deutsche Bank.

<snip>

Crude-oil futures struck a fresh record above $78 a barrel, propelled higher as Israel stepped up its offensive against Lebanon, bombing the Beirut airport for a second day, as well as roads, power and communications infrastructure. Crude for August delivery rose as high as $78.40 a barrel, a record level for a front-month contract. Oil later settled back, and was last trading up 88 cents at $77.58 a barrel. See Futures Movers.

...more...

:wtf:

[stop the bleeding]

41. doesn't matter how we start out, it matters how we finish today

and WTF is right

Good morning :)

[54anickel]

42. Is the United States Bankrupt? (Mission Accomplished?)

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/06/07/Kotlikoff.pdf

Is the United States bankrupt? Many would scoff at this notion. Others would argue that financial
implosion is just around the corner. This paper explores these views from both partial and general
equilibrium perspectives. It concludes that countries can go broke, that the United States is going
broke, that remaining open to foreign investment can help stave off bankruptcy, but that radical
reform of U.S. fiscal institutions is essential to secure the nation’s economic future. The paper
offers three policies to eliminate the nation’s enormous fiscal gap and avert bankruptcy: a retail
sales tax, personalized Social Security, and a globally budgeted universal healthcare system.

snip>

The final section offers three radical policies
to eliminate the nation’s enormous fiscal gap and
avert bankruptcy. These policies would replace
the current tax system with a retail sales tax,
personalize Social Security, and move to a globally
budgeted universal healthcare system implemented
via individual-specific health-insurance
vouchers. The radical stance of these proposals
reflects the critical nature of our time. Unless the
United States moves quickly to fundamentally
change and restrain its fiscal behavior, its bankruptcy
will become a foregone conclusion.

more...

[skids]

49. Talk about resurrecting corpses...

One might be simply amused that some folks are still trying to breath life into SS privatization... but a national sales tax? I thought that went out with cordoruys.

(Though if by some freak apex of stupidity it ever does comes to pass, look for me on the corner of maple and high. I'll be the one in the trenchcoat selling bootleg power tools off the books.)

[UpInArms]

53. Good Grief!!!

more from your link:

As suggested above, the proper way to consider
a country’s solvency is to examine the lifetime
fiscal burdens facing current and future
generations. If these burdens exceed the resources
of those generations, get close to doing so, or simply
get so high as to preclude their full collection,
the country’s policy will be unsustainable and
can constitute or lead to national bankruptcy.
Does the United States fit this bill? No one
knows for sure, but there are strong reasons to
believe the United States may be going broke.
Consider, for starters, Gokhale and Smetters’s
(2005) analysis of the country’s fiscal gap, which
measures the present value difference between
all future government expenditures, including
servicing official debt, and all future receipts. In
calculating the fiscal gap, Gokhale and Smetters
use the federal government’s arbitrarily labeled
receipts and payments. Nevertheless, their calculation
of the fiscal gap is label-free because alternative
labeling of our nation’s fiscal affairs would
yield the same fiscal gap. Indeed, determining
the fiscal gap is part of generational accounting;
the fiscal gap measures the extra burden that
would need to be imposed on current or future
generations, relative to current policy, to satisfy
the government’s intertemporal budget constraint.
The Gokhale and Smetters measure of the
fiscal gap is a stunning $65.9 trillion! This figure
is more than five times U.S. GDP and almost twice
the size of national wealth. One way to wrap one’s
head around $65.9 trillion is to ask what fiscal
adjustments are needed to eliminate this red hole.
The answers are terrifying. One solution is an
immediate and permanent doubling of personal
and corporate income taxes. Another is an immediate
and permanent two-thirds cut in Social
Security and Medicare benefits. A third alternative,
were it feasible, would be to immediately
and permanently cut all federal discretionary
spending by 143 percent.

[54anickel]

62. Pretty scary, ain't it? Coming from the Fed makes it even more

terrifying.

[UpInArms]

67. and you know what is really stupid?

this report talks about how fiscally responsible we were in 2000 and now wants to regressively remove everything from the lower- and middle-class through a 33% flat tax with "payments monthly from the government" to make up the difference in earnings -

A 33 percent federal retail-sales tax rate would
generate federal revenue equal to 21 percent of
GDP—the same figure that prevailed in 2000.
Currently, federal revenues equal 16 percent of
GDP. So we are talking here about a major tax hike.
But we’re also talking about some major spending
cuts. First, Social Security would be paying only
its accrued benefits over time, which is trillions
of dollars less than its projected benefits, when
measured in present value. Second, we would be
putting a lid on the growth of healthcare expenditures.
Limiting excessive growth in these expenditures
will, over time, make up for the initial
increase in federal healthcare spending arising
from the move to universal coverage. Third, we’d
reduce federal discretionary spending by one-fifth
and, thereby, return to the 2000 ratio of this spending
to GDP. Taken together, these very significant
tax hikes and spending cuts would, I believe,
eliminate most if not all of our nation’s fiscal gap.

turning us effectively into a welfare state - :grr:

[happyslug]

168. I have three problems with this article

First, it advocates cutting Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, but does NOT mentioned (Except for a short snippet when it some to the pay of soldiers) advocate the other big item in the Budget, the Military. The MILITARY is the BIG item in the National Budget and without cutting it you are spinning your wheels (and when I mean cut I mean cut, like eliminating all but 4 carrier groups, from today's 12, eliminate all US Army divisions, to eliminate 2/3 of the Air Force's Air Wings, such a cut will leave a military more than adequate to defend the US, but not capable of invading the mid-east, but will save a HUGE costs incurred by the Treasury).

Second, it advocates a National Sales tax, which hurts the poor. While the Author advocates a "Rebate" for the poor, that will never happen (or if it does it will be so low as to be meaningless). He supports the ideal of a 30$ sales tax but does NOT address the problem of tax cheating (Which is know to happen in any sales tax system that exceed about 10%). Furthermore he ignores that such a tax rate to be effective to raise as much revenue as today's income tax does, MUST INCLUDE THE SALE OF NEW HOMES (And maybe even used homes on the grounds there will be new to the new buyers). Sales tax revenue from anything else does NOT bring in the needed revenue.

Three, it advocates private accounts, where any financial Adviser worthy of the name, will tell you that you MUST have a base to live on. That base must be in the safest form of investment so that if anything goes wrong you still have something to live on. What is the best investment, US Treasury Bonds, what is Social Security invested in, US Treasury Bonds. What agency ah the lowest costs to administer its financial benefits for its "investors"? Social Security. Basically he advocates taking the money out of Social Security and give it to people who for a percentage will invest it into the stock market with NO GUARANTEE THAT THE INVESTMENT WILL EQUAL WHAT THE US TREASURY BONDS WILL PRODUCE (And any investment reduced by the fees to make the investment, fees all in excess of what SOcial Security incurs today).

Basically this is another paper advocating destroying Social Security on the grounds it is a Socialist program that is working to well. These guys see high profits for themselves if the money going into Social Security was invested with them then by the US Government.

Thus how to "save" Social Security? First does it need to be Saved? Under the estimates used to see how Social Security will do in the next 50 years, only the worse case scenario have it become insolvent, in all other cases (including what most likely will happen) Social Security will be Solvent for the foreseeable future (i.e. 50+ years and more if the cap is eliminated).

Given this situation why is everyone so worried about Social Security? The reason is come 2010 when it comes to extend the tax cut OR leave the rare return to what it was in 2000, Social Security will NO LONGER BE TURNING OVER ITS EXCESS INTAKE TO THE TREASURY DEPARTMENT. Come about 2020 Social Security will have to start to cash in all those Treasury bills it purchased Since Reagan's Presidency to pay off the Baby boomers. Thus you can kiss the tax cut good by UNLESS IT IS DONE NOW. Thus the big push to "Save" Social Security, it is NOT to save Social Security but to save the tax cut.

P.S. And the above will be the case even if Bush had NOT invaded Iraq and ran up the deficient even more.

[UpInArms]

170. great analysis and well said!

:toast:

[UpInArms]

44. Intel announces layoff of 1,000 managers, 15,000 more may follow

http://www.tgdaily.com/2006/07/13/intel_announces_layoff_of_1000_managers/

Santa Clara (CA) - An announcement did come from Intel today, but it wasn't the pleasant kind: The company is laying off about 1,000 managers, in a move spokesperson Chuck Malloy told TG Daily is intended "to improve communication flow and the decision-making process." Mulloy went on to say that only some of the managers selected for attrition have been notified, with the remainder expected to be told within the next few days.

First-line (low-level) and senior level managers will be affected by the layoffs, in all company categories, across all geographies, Mulloy told us. Executives would not be affected in this round of cuts, he said, mainly due to the fact that cutting at the executive ranks would require formal reporting to the SEC, and Intel is not quite prepared to make such reports. This left open the possibility that some executives could indeed be cut in the future, as part of the wide-ranging corporate reorganization announced by CEO Paul Otellini in late April. One month later, analysts speculated that Intel's layoff numbers could eventually reach as high as 16,000.

...more...

[UpInArms]

45. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.2.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures indications continue to improve heading into the open and now hover just below the unchanged mark, now setting the stage for the market to open relatively flat. Speculation that a weaker-than-expected headline read on total retail sales could sway some Fed officials to rethink raising rates for an 18th straight time in August may be convincing some investors that the recent sell-off is overdone and that a short-term bottom has finally formed.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Futures trade still languishing below fair value and suggest a slightly lower open for the indices following mixed economic data. June retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% (consensus +0.4%), while sales ex-autos rose 0.3%, matching forecasts; May's ex-autos figure was upwardly revised to 0.7% from 0.5%. Bonds have improved slightly, though, as the 10-yr note is now up 5 ticks to yield 5.04%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. Futures versus fair value are signaling another sluggish start for stocks. With no end in sight regarding the conflict between Israel and Lebanon, oil prices recently hitting a new record above $78 per barrel continue to act as an overhang, especially ahead of a read on consumer spending at 8:30 ET (e.g. Retail Sales). As an aside, General Electric (GE) reported a mild Q2 profit improvement and in-line guidance, but it's still too early to tell if the bellwether can help improve a market now more focused on the negatives.

[Roland99]

47. 9:35am - Hunting for a direction (pink now)

DJIA 10,837.73 -8.56 -0.08%
Nasdaq 2,053.83 -0.28 -0.01%
S&P 500 1,241.78 -0.51 -0.04%
Dow Util 418.08 +0.75 +0.18%
NYSE 7,986.61 -5.24 -0.07%
AMEX 1,900.16 +0.28 +0.01%
Russell 2000 686.25 -1.04 -0.15%
Semcond 411.49 +0.46 +0.11%
Gold future 663.80 +9.40 +1.44%
30-Year Bond 5.13% +0.01 +0.27%
10-Year Bond 5.08% +0.01 +0.12


Was down about 11 quickly then rebounded just as quickly to even.

[54anickel]

46. Flat Yield Curve & Reflation (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie071306.html

There is no bond conundrum. The ample credit supply from Asia on the finance side, and injurious Asian job outsourcing on the tangible side, these have combined to render the US Treasury Yield Curve (TYC) as flat as a buttermilk pancake. Wages have therefore failed to participate in the recovery, with little wonder why. Actual job growth occurs in Asia, while Birth-Death job statistics enter the ledger in the USEconomy. If not for the B-D additions to the job count, the official job growth would have been negative in both May and June. Creeping poverty outside of home equity is the stark painful reality which confirms the flat TYC.

There is no bond conundrum. The US Federal Reserve reflation initiative, begun in 2001 when interest rates were yanked hard down to 1%, is a grand failure. In the 1970 decade, wages rose easy as pie, 10% here, 12% there, performance notwithstanding. Everybody except those stuck in industries undercut by foreign government subsidies (e.g. steel) received nice hikes in pay checks. Nowadays, with China & India in the picture, grants for 10% pay hikes are as rare as wavy shocks of hair on Greenspan's dome. Most people are expected to work harder, manage more people, balance more projects, and to be grateful for the job with flimsy pay raises. The absence of a steep TYC is the stark painful reality which contradicts claims of a robust USEconomy.

There is no bond conundrum. Every chapter in economic mythology requires nonsensical cloud cover for its lies. The intercontinental macro economy, noted by its flexible credit system and low-cost factory solutions, stands as the latest legend wrapped in heretical economic dogma. We see one mythology chapter per decade, so it seems, each accepted like a hungry dog lapping up a sawdust stew, empty of calories. Asia is in revolt, holding scads of USTBond paper. The USDollar reserve currency status is under siege, bloated beyond value. Asians and even Persian Gulf nations are buying gold with diverted oil revenues. The Petro-Dollar is shaky in its foundation. Flexibility turns out to be bound by breakable rubber bands. The global insurrection against the USDollar standard is the stark painful reality which pokes broad holes in the groundless Macro Economy myth.

There is no bond conundrum. The performance of the USEconomy has been reported with utter lies and distortion for over a decade. Not a single major important economic statistic has been spared from corruption, in tragic reflection of the regular scandals on Wall Street. We have no reluctance in easily conclusions, to admit the gross under-statement of price inflation on the CPI political shuttle of false information. However, we somehow find plausible the gross over-statement of economic growth on the GDP political shuttle of false information. The growth lie is swallowed whole even by the gold community. The true price inflation rate is in the 6% to 8% range. The true GDP growth rate is in the 0% to 1% range, maybe even negative. Most claimed economic growth is improperly adjusted price inflation. The USEconomy is growing only from inflation. Strip out a minimized falsified portion, which we all admit recognition for, and what remains is called robust economic growth? Rubbish. The absence of inflation adjusted economic growth (i.e. 0% GDP) is the stark painful reality which confirms the flat Treasury Yield Curve.

more...

[stop the bleeding]

48. anyone have the numbers on the advance vs declines so far

things look pretty even to me on my boards with a slight downward pop.

Thank you in advance

[Roland99]

50. Don't have that but 52-week lows are slaughtering 52-week highs

52-Week High 14 15
52-Week Low 102 111


Unless those are from yesterday?

Looks like a direction has been found (SOUTH)


DJIA 10,815.72 -30.57 -0.28%
Nasdaq 2,049.20 -4.91 -0.24%
S&P 500 1,239.93 -2.36 -0.19%
Dow Util 417.81 +0.48 +0.12%
NYSE 7,976.75 -15.10 -0.19%
AMEX 1,900.45 +0.57 +0.03%
Russell 2000 684.85 -2.44 -0.36%
Semcond 409.23 -1.80 -0.44%
Gold future 664.30 +9.90 +1.51%
30-Year Bond 5.13% +0.01 +0.23%
10-Year Bond 5.08% +0.01 +0.12%

[stop the bleeding]

52. thanks and the opening DJIA is down now 30 pts

today is crucial as far as how it ends.

3 down days in a row would gove people something to think about

[Roland99]

55. Gold is rising quickly. $665 (up 1.6% or so)

[54anickel]

51. Americans are running out of money

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/bonner/bonner071406.html

snip>

The US trade gap grew in May to $63.8 billion. But take away oil imports, and the gap actually fell. This is what we expect. Americans are running out of money. They can't afford to continue buying oil... and buying more junk too. Something's got to give and it will be junk. Consumer spending, at least on the more frivolous items will fall, we are sure.

More evidence of this comes from Las Vegas which, according to Reuters, is feeling the pinch of higher fuel prices and squeezed family budgets. Las Vegas is a playground for Middle America. When the lumpen run short of money, Las Vegas shrivels.

We find that Disney, also nourished on the blood of the middle classes, is "slashing jobs."

And now comes news that commodities are rising across the board; that nickel has hit a new high of $26,600 a metric tonne, oil is over $74 and gold is trading over $650 an ounce. Corn and wheat are at 10-year highs. This, too, fits nicely into our theory. While Americans run out of dollars, foreigners have plenty of them. They're bidding up prices on the things that are not easily Made in China.

We see also that the yield on the 2-year note is higher than the yield on the 10 year. This inverted yield curve also suggests, foretells, or perhaps even creates a weakening economy. In America, the Bernanke Fed has already cranked hard on the tap. Rumour has it that it will give it another 25 basis point twist next month.

more...

[stop the bleeding]

54. Doesn't Holiday season shopping often add a boost to 4Qtr

earnings for Retailers and others?

I wonder how much those earnings will suffer this year because Christmas will be going into the gas tank for most shoppers - especially ones who exhausted their savings - which seems to be most of America.

Storm on the horizon??

[Trajan]

74. Here, in my country of America ....

The rich are stuffing tax cuts in their pockets so fast your head would spin, whilst allowing the economic state of the state to degrade through their neglect and incompetence ... Stewardship requires policies that sustain and grow a nation ... a WHOLE nation ... not just the lofty few at the top ....

That lofty few own the newspapers and TV news shows that trumpet how wonderful everything is .... and it is; for them ..... yet the state of our state continues to crumble, and they continue to grab as much booty as they can as the boat sinks further down ....

Yeah, the GOP know how to run a country ....

RIGHT into the mud, as usual .....

[UpInArms]

56. Largest home builder cuts 2006 outlook on difficult housing market

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BB9264E12%2DEB3C%2D4572%2DB46A%2DDAECCED62EC2%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Home-building stocks were trading lower Friday after D.R. Horton Inc., the nation's largest builder, cut its full-year earnings forecast by almost a third due to tough conditions in the residential-real-estate market.

D.R. Horton (DHI) late Thursday reported third-quarter sales orders fell to $3.8 billion, or 14,316 homes, from $4.1 billion, or 14,980 homes, in the year-earlier period. The figures indicate drops of more than 7% in dollar value and more than 4% in units.

Donald Horton, chairman of the S&P 500 constituent based in Fort Worth, Texas, noted the "difficult selling conditions the homebuilding industry is experiencing.

"The current home-sales environment is characterized by an increase in both existing and new homes available for sale, higher-than-normal cancellation rates and an increase in the use of sales incentives in many of our markets," he added.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. 9:47 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,812.11 -34.18 (-0.32%)
Nasdaq 2,047.70 -6.41 (-0.31%)
S&P 500 1,240.17 -2.12 (-0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 5.073 +0.02 (+0.04%)

NYSE Volume 191,663,000
Nasdaq Volume 132,518,000

09:40 am : Despite two consecutive days of sharp losses, escalating geopolitical concerns lifting oil prices above $78 per barrel and the Bank of Japan joining other central banks around the globe working to contain inflation by raising their overnight lending rate for the first time in six years aren't exactly enticing buyers to rush back into equities. Aside from ongoing tensions between Israel and Lebanon posing a risk to global security and underpinning a sense of nervousness, merely decent Q2 earnings from bellwether General Electric (GE 32.22 -0.45) has not been enough to renew enthusiasm for equities and simply adds to concerns about earnings prospects in the face of a slowing economy that was further evidenced in a weaker than expected read on total retail sales. DJ30 -32.74 NASDAQ -7.41 SP500 -2.45 NASDAQ Vol 100 mln NYSE Vol 88 mln

[Roland99]

60. 9:54am - Redder numbers

DJIA 10,795.94 -50.35 -0.46%
Nasdaq 2,046.61 -7.50 -0.37%
S&P 500 1,238.82 -3.47 -0.28%
Dow Util 417.31 -0.02 -0.00%
NYSE 7,964.10 -27.75 -0.35%
AMEX 1,895.13 -4.75 -0.25%
Russell 2000 682.53 -4.76 -0.69%
Semcond 412.68 +1.65 +0.40%
Gold future 664.50 +10.10 +1.54%
30-Year Bond 5.12% +0.01 +0.14%
10-Year Bond 5.07% -0.00 -0.04%

Issues: NYSE Nasdaq
Advancing 747 836
Declining 1,249 1,474
Unchanged 152 147
Total: 2,148 2,457

[54anickel]

58. Why Cash Is Attractive

http://www.fallstreet.com/july1306.php

The yield on the Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund is currently 4.98%. 4.98% is higher than the average yield on REITs (as of June), almost 3-times as high as the dividend yield on the Wilshire 5000, and nearly as high as the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond. With these statistics in mind, I will dare say that many aggressive investors will probably look back say a year from now and regret that they didn’t stop trading and simply move into cash in mid-2006.

The danger with trying to pick which asset class will best 5% in the coming 12-months is readily apparent: like a sinner standing at the gates of heaven central banks have started to change their ways and take liquidity out of the system, which suggests that speculative forces in the marketplace will continue to be corralled going forward. And while the obvious response to a concerted attack by central banks on liquidity is to head into bonds – something Gross suggested to do last week – there is nonetheless the risk that commodity prices will not immediately follow the central bank game-plan. In other words, interest rates may stay stubbornly high, even if economic growth slows, unless commodity prices fall.

When Uncertainty Abounds...

Guided by the light of predictable and safe returns, the prudent investor can only arrive at the conclusion that there are potentially outsized risks in owning stocks, bonds, real estate, and commodities today. Moreover, these risks are unlikely to pass by anytime soon.

Incidentally, what helps keep the dangerous asset churn going even as central banks attempt to drain liquidity from the system is, ironically, that which is being heralded as marking the end of times: volatility. To be sure, volatility, at least in the near term, serves to harden the speculators belief that outsized opportunities exist. For example, a crash in precious metals represents an opportunity in bonds, falling emerging market stocks means there is money to be made in US dollars, falling real estate represents an opportunity in art, etc…

more...

[Roland99]

65. Heck, ING savings accts are paying about 4.3-4.6% or so.

[wordpix2]

72. however, when stock prices fall, that's a good time to buy & be in positio

n for the next increase.
That might be awhile but who knows what five years will bring if you're in the market for the long haul?

[ozone_man]

76. Buy at the bottom they say.

Where is the bottom though? I think it's further down then most can imagine. Maybe in two years there will be a good short term buying opportunity in preparation for the 2008 elections. And then another down turn after the election.

Cash or a short fund looks good for now.

[mike923]

91. Can't time the market....

but buying consistently produces the best results. I'm buying a bit more now, as it falls. There's bargins everywhere.

[VegasWolf]

102. Not me!! Too many people lost money in 2000 dollar cost averaging

DOWN. I think the bottom is a lot further away than people think. The talking heads at CNBC were saying that Yahoo was a "bargin" at $650 in 2000. I'll do day trading, but at the end of the day I'm in an all cash position.

[mike923]

120. In 2000 people had their money in stocks like "makeupthreewordsinarow.com"

The fundamentals of the nasdaq market of the late 90's screemed sell. Stocks of companines that never made dime one, were trading above $50 a share.

The market today is reacting to the termoil in the middle east. The fundamentals of the stocks that make up the averages are, for the most part, well under priced. As things settle down, as they always do because the media has a short attention span, the market will spring back.

I'm not advocating buying or selling, but if you are a seller, you are just one of the herd we so often make fun of on this thread.

[ozone_man]

169. It's a lot more than the Middle East.

Maybe there are some day to day variations based on this kind of news, but that's not responsible for what we'll be seeing in the next two years. The big trend down continues. Fasten your seat belts please. ;)

[UpInArms]

61. 9:56 EST floating like a lead balloon

Dow 10,789.78 -56.51 (-0.52%)
Nasdaq 2,042.24 -11.87 (-0.58%)
S&P 500 1,238.24 -4.05 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 5.079 +0.08 (+0.16%)

NYSE Volume 261,576,000
Nasdaq Volume 197,985,000

[UpInArms]

64. 10:16 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,795.62 -50.67 (-0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,047.50 -6.62 (-0.32%)
S&P 500 1,239.84 -2.45 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 5.071 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 414,042,000
Nasdaq Volume 301,015,000

10:00 am : Indices continue to weaken as investors digest an unexpected decline in early July sentiment. Within the last few minutes, the University of Michigan's preliminary read on Consumer Sentiment checked in with a surprisingly weaker-than-expected read of 83.0 (consensus 85.5). Even though there isn't as strong a correlation between sentiment and consumer spending as some might think, clearly sluggish total retail sales in June as reported by the Commerce Dept. before the bell do not ease fears of a significant slowdown in consumer spending over the coming months. DJ30 -55.41 NASDAQ -9.23 SP500 -3.70 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1572/815/222 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1766/860/198 mln

[Roland99]

66. They gotta get that bit of spin in there...

"Even though there isn't as strong a correlation between sentiment and consumer spending as some might think"

[wordpix2]

71. how about telling it like it is: It's the war economy, stupid! Also, oil

price spikes, high interest rates, and the incompetent * maladministration in general.

[54anickel]

70. Ford May Lose $3 Billion in North America, People Say

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ao.YddP8H.MY&refer=us

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co., buffeted by declining sales, shrinking margins on its most profitable vehicles and a need to conserve cash, may lose $3 billion in North America this year, people familiar with the company's internal projections said.

The pretax loss would be almost twice the $1.6 billion Ford lost in its North American auto business last year and higher than analysts' projections of a deficit as big as $2.5 billion.

The unexpectedly poor performance threatens Chief Executive Officer William Clay Ford Jr.'s corporate turnaround plan announced six months ago, which banks on the North American auto operations being in the black by 2008, largely through job cuts and new, better-quality vehicles.

A wider loss in North America would make it ``imperative that Ford accelerate its cost-cutting activity and product launches,'' said Pete Hastings, a fixed-income analyst at Morgan Keegan & Co. in Memphis, Tennessee.

Ford spokesman Tom Hoyt declined to comment. The company, the world's third-largest automaker, stopped providing earnings guidance to analysts in January.

more....



And from yesterday....
Ford Cuts Quarterly Dividend by Half to Conserve Cash
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aDuaCbzncNd8&refer=worldwide_news

July 13 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co., the second-Largest U.S. automaker, cut its dividend by half as the company conserves cash after losses at its North American auto unit.

The quarterly payout falls to 5 cents a share from 10 cents as of Sept. 1, Ford said in a statement today. The board also reduced the $200,000 annual fee for outside directors by half. Ford, which last year spent $738 million on dividends, last cut the payment on common and Class B stock in 2002's first quarter.

Ford is trimming spending after a $1.6 billion pretax loss in its North American auto operations in 2005. The Dearborn, Michigan-based company has had losses in the region, its largest, in six of the seven quarters through March 31. Ford's net income was $2 billion last year because of earnings from car and truck loans.

Chief Executive Officer William Clay Ford Jr. in January announced a plan to cut 30,000 jobs and close 14 manufacturing plants in North America by 2012. That plan, Bill Ford's second restructuring effort since becoming chief executive in October 2001, was prompted by last year's North American auto loss.

Directors had received $80,000 and $120,000 in deferred stock units each year. Both types of compensation will be reduced by half, spokeswoman Becky Sanch said in an interview. The value of the deferred stock units is paid in cash after directors leave the board, she said.

more...

[UpInArms]

73. 10:37 EST clinging to 10,800

Dow 10,800.19 -46.10 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,048.12 -6.00 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,239.93 -2.36 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 5.067 -0.04 (-0.08%)

NYSE Volume 556,094,000
Nasdaq Volume 399,918,000

10:30 am : Major averages are off their lows but still sport modest losses as the bulk of industry leadership remains negative. Homebuilding (-6.0%), the worst performing SnP industry group in Q2, is also today's biggest laggard after DR Horton (DHI 20.50 -2.36) slashed its Q3 and full-year EPS guidance, which is weighing heavily on a Consumer Discretionary sector already reeling from the consequences of oil prices at record highs. With regard to the latter and its drag on transportation stocks, the Industrials sector (-1.1%) is also among this morning’s worst performing sectors. Benefiting from the continued surge in crude futures, however, is Energy, as Drillers and Explorers are among the best performing areas so far. DJ30 -47.56 DJTA -1.3% NASDAQ -5.46 SP500 -2.43 XOI +0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1725/865/378 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2005/863/346 mln

[Roland99]

79. Lost its grip a bit ago.... 10,782. er... 10,770

[54anickel]

75. America's savings hoax exposed

(Sorry if this is a repeat)

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/earthlink-net/mw-news.asp?guid={EB09402A-4E13-4B5A-953F-A8669B9191C0}

snip>

In pure economic terms, the choice is simple. You can't save and spend too. And especially since the 2000-02 recession, our policymakers have consistently voted in favor of spending, not saving. So read my lips: America's savings policy is a fake, bogus, phony, fraudulent, bankrupt and, oh yes, non-existent. Why? Because our policymakers don't want you to save, they want you to spend, spend no matter how deep you go into debt. Ignore their rhetoric, watch their actions.

No wonder the new Securities Industry Association report on retirement savings stands out like a sore thumb: From the 1950s through the 1980s, Americans were saving over 10% annually. Since then, our spirit of thrift spiraled into a negative savings rate.

Today "nearly half of all American households are not saving at all and only about one-third of all U.S. families are saving enough to maintain their standards of living in retirement." And don't tell me that 401(k)s, home equity and stock appreciation aren't included. You're in denial and rationalizing.

But this is not news. We've heard this a million times. You've heard it. So have all your senators and representatives, the president, Wall Street and Corporate America. But the problem is so enormous, we're paralyzed. So nobody's doing anything! Not individuals. Not the government. We're passing our failures on to future generations, as we slip deeper into a bottomless tar pit of debt and deficits.

more...

[UpInArms]

77. Business economists foresee slower growth

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B1594298D%2DB132%2D4C8F%2DA82B%2D6336B03A30E6%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Business economists see the U.S. economy decelerating in the months ahead, according to a quarterly survey released Friday by the National Association for Business Economics.

Firms reported softer hiring and capital spending in the second quarter.

<snip>

Demand is weakening. The index for demand fell to 39 in July from 48 in April. That's the lowest since the second quarter of 2003. In manufacturing, the demand index fell to 8 from 67 in April. Demand also dipped for financial-services companies.

<snip>

The percentage of firms reporting higher wages and salaries in the past three months fell to 29% from 47%.

...more...

[54anickel]

80. Notice how you don't see any more talk of that baton pass-off from the

consumer to business? They were pulling that one outta their arse for the last 4 or so years - never happened and it sure as hell ain't gonna start now. What do you hear about it - crickets. :eyes:

[54anickel]

78. Why your bank thinks you're a terrorist

Banks are reporting even slightly 'abnormal' transactions to comply with the law. The result: A deluge of reports, a lot of confusion and more government intrusion.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/FinancialPrivacy/WhyYourBankThinksYoureATerrorist.aspx

A government program designed to track down terrorists and money launderers is frightening bank customers, frustrating financial institutions and inundating federal agencies with secret reports of dubious value.

It's called the Suspicious Activity Report, or SAR, and critics say it victimizes honest citizens who are conducting legitimate financial activities through legitimate banking channels, while generating a flood of useless paperwork and burdening financial institutions with billions of dollars in costs.

Experts predict nearly 1 million such reports will be filed in 2006, a bit more than half by depository institutions, the rest by money-services businesses, casinos, card clubs and the securities and futures industries. Insurance companies had to begin filing in spring 2006, and mutual-fund companies will have to establish anti-money laundering programs and file SARs in fall 2006.

In total, 919,230 SARs were filed in 2005. You cannot find out if one has been filed on you; anyone revealing that information is breaking the law.

What can trigger a SAR? Almost anything out of the ordinary that rouses the suspicion of the personnel where the transaction took place. According to their rules, any group of transactions totaling $5,000 or more that "is not the sort in which the particular customer would normally be expected to engage" can cause enough suspicion to create a SAR. The reports are filed with the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a division of the Department of the Treasury, and shared with law enforcement

more...

[Roland99]

81. Hmm..bet my recent series of cashier's checks raised some brows

he he

[UpInArms]

82. 11:00 EST Fecal Matter Hits Fan (added blather)

Dow 10,764.89 -81.40 (-0.75%)
Nasdaq 2,041.27 -12.84 (-0.63%)
S&P 500 1,237.16 -5.13 (-0.41%)
10-Yr Bond 5.071 0.00 (0.00%)

NYSE Volume 698,684,000
Nasdaq Volume 512,284,000

11:00 am : Recent attempts to find some sort of stability and settle into a relatively tight trading range are short-lived as buyers remain a reluctant bunch. One area that is trending higher, though, is Human Resources (+2.1%), following an analyst upgrade on Monster Worldwide (MNST 37.69 +1.00). Gold (+1.4%), per usual during times of geopolitical tensions, is headed for its fourth straight weekly gain amid safe-haven buying. The belief that the Semiconductors group (+1.2%), one of the worst performers over the last 6 months, has been oversold is also among only a handful of notable gainers. A delayed reaction to Intel's (INTC 17.98 +0.26) announced management restructuring and Broadcom (BRCM 28.22 +0.33) finding non-cash options discrepancies are providing some support. DJ30 -71.56 NASDAQ -9.74 SOX +0.6% SP500 -4.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1742/922/508 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2032/915/468 mln

[54anickel]

84. DOW flirting with triple digits at 11:06

Dow 10,745.60 -100.69 (-0.93%)
Nasdaq 2,037.53 -16.59 (-0.81%)
S&P 500 1,233.99 -8.30 (-0.67%)
10-yr Bond 50.75 +0.04 (+0.08%)
30-yr Bond 51.27 +0.12 (+0.23%)
NYSE Volume 744,678,000
Nasdaq Volume 549,450,000

[Roland99]

85. And a hit...10,746.16. Triple digits now

-105 now.

[htuttle]

88. So, who was the knucklehead that looked down?

Remember: DON'T LOOK DOWN! JUST KEEP RUNNING!

[Roland99]

89. .

:rofl:

[UpInArms]

86. Advancers/Decliners

11:10 AM ET 7/14/06 NYSE DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 23 TO 8

11:11 AM ET 7/14/06 NASDAQ DECLINERS OUTNUMBER ADVANCERS 5 TO 2

[stop the bleeding]

87. on 06/12 & 06/13 the DJIA flirted with 10700-10690

This was the low point before that rally was put in, we are coming up on a critical test.

[stop the bleeding]

90. to add the NASAQ is in the shitter and the S&P is coming up on it's

lows from those 2 days as well.

We need to see how today ends, hold onto your asses/assets this may get interesting to say the least

[Roland99]

92. Gut feel but I don't think we'll hit that today.

If things stay bad, geopolitically, next week, though......

[Roland99]

93. Well...I was WRONG! -143 now

[stop the bleeding]

94. stop the car we have arrived at our destination - now

where do we go from here

1) do we range trade - I don't think so
2) do we go down - maybe with a feeble recovery in the late afternoon
3) keep going down and down
4) Faeries, pixies and sprites - anyone? - me don't think so

DJIA @ 10717 - probably will trade sideways for about 20 minutes - enough to pull back to some simple MA's and then whoooosh - free fall :)

[Roland99]

95. We shall see if the faeries have bulked up or if they're on summer break

[Roland99]

98. Perhaps the faeries got their steroid allotment... -98

[54anickel]

83. The Politics of Greed

http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0711-22.htm

AUSTIN, Texas—I don’t get it. What’s the percentage in keeping the minimum wage at $5.15 an hour? After nine years? This is such an unnecessary and nasty Republican move. Congress has voted seven times to raise its own wages since last the minimum wage budged. Of course, Congress always raises its own salary in the dark of night, hoping no one will notice. But now it does the same with the minimum wage, quietly killing it.

Anyone who doesn’t think this is a country where the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer needs to check the numbers—this is Bush country, where a rising tide lifts all yachts.

snip>

Meanwhile, for those who have been following the collapse of the pension system, please note a series in The Wall Street Journal by Ellen Schultz taking a hard look at executive pension obligations:

-- “Benefits for executives now account for a significant share of pension obligations in the United States, an average of 8 percent (of large companies). Sometimes a company’s obligation for a single executive’s pension approaches $100 million.”

-- “These liabilities are largely hidden, because corporations don’t distinguish them from overall pension obligations in their federal financial findings.”

-- “As a result, the savings that companies make by curtailing pensions of regular retirees—which have totaled billions of dollars in recent years—can mask a rising cost of benefits for executives.”

-- “Executive pensions, even when they won’t be paid until years from now, drag down the earnings today. And they do so in a way that’s disproportionate to their size, because they aren’t funded with dedicated assets.”

It seems to me that we’ve seen enough evidence over the years that the capitalist system is not going to be destroyed by an outside challenger like communism—it will be destroyed by its own internal greed. Greed is the greatest danger as we develop an increasingly winner-take-all system. And voices like The Wall Street Journal’s editorial page encourage this mentality by insisting that any form of regulation is bad. But for whom?

more...

[UpInArms]

99. Moody's cuts Ford's rating deeper into junk status

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-14T155809Z_01_N14428026_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-FORD-MOODYS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service on Friday cut its ratings on Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and its finance arm deeper into junk status, saying the automaker will face considerable stress as high fuel prices hurt demand for sports utility vehicles.

Ford's sales of large SUVs fell by 32.1 percent in the six months through June, Moody's said in a statement. Because of the dramatic shift away from the profitable SUV segment, Ford's restructuring program may not materially strengthen its credit quality before 2008, Moody's said.

Ford, which lost $1.2 billion worldwide in the first quarter, has relied heavily on sales of SUVs, but high gasoline prices have cut deeply into demand. The automaker has announced plans to shutter 14 plants and cut 30,000 jobs as part of a broad restructuring.

Moody's cut Ford's rating by two notches to "B2," five steps below investment grade, from "Ba3."

...more...

[Roland99]

100. How many hybrids do they have? 1?

ooof.

[Paulie]

114. Two

but the same model under two brands...

[Roland99]

119. Gots to love that there innovatin'!

[skids]

121. In severely limited quantities, to boot.

Technically Ford's got a great hybrid drivetrain -- basically a fork of Toyota's technology from earlier on before Toyota took it in-house.

However, their corporate chums they would need to buy their supplies from all outsourced and they can't seem to get their crap together on the supply lines. Not that I assume their administers in charge of that are especially competant to begin with, but adding the fluency in a foreign language requirement to the job surely can't have helped matters.

[UpInArms]

101. 12:08 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,737.92 -108.37 (-1.00%)
Nasdaq 2,036.18 -17.93 (-0.87%)
S&P 500 1,232.51 -9.78 (-0.79%)
10-Yr Bond 5.057 -0.14 (-0.28%)

NYSE Volume 1,140,625,000
Nasdaq Volume 828,263,000

12:00 pm : Stocks continue to trade at session lows midday as escalating geopolitical concerns lifting oil prices to record highs, more warnings than good earnings, disappointing economic data and another central banker raising rates prompt bargain hunters following two consecutive days of sharp losses to stay on the sidelines going into the weekend.

With no end in sight regarding the conflict between Israel and Lebanon, oil prices hitting a new record above $78 per barrel earlier have kept a bearish bias firmly intact. Earnings warnings from home builder DR Horton (DHI 20.79 -2.07) and Borders Group (BGP 17.24 -1.04) and a Q3 outlook from bellwether General Electric (GE 32.29 -0.38) which checked in at the low end of analysts' forecasts have added to concerns about earnings prospects in the face of a slowing economy that was further evidenced in a weaker-than-expected read on consumer spending. June retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% (consensus +0.4%) and sales ex-autos rose 0.3% merely matching forecasts, doing little to ease concerns of a significant slowdown in consumption over the coming months.

Also weighing on sentiment has been the Bank of Japan raising its overnight rate for the first time in six years from 0.00% to 0.25%. While the move was widely anticipated, it puts the BOJ on board with other central banks around the world that have been working to contain inflation with higher rates that, in turn, will slow economic growth. BTK -1.6% DJ30 -112.18 DJTA -2.4% DJUA -0.2% DOT -0.9% NASDAQ -20.70 NQ100 -1.1% R2K -1.5% SOX -0.9% SP400 -0.9% SP500 -10.70 XOI -0.5% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2167/637/810 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2434/624/762 mln

[DemsRBetterLovers]

104. "High gas prices are a sign of a failed presidency." -Dick Cheney, 1998

[stop the bleeding]

106. welcome to DU DemsRBetterLovers

do you have a link or source for that - cause it is awesome :)

[UpInArms]

107. I wonder if these dolts have looked in the mirror lately?

on edit (forgot my manners :blush: )

Welcome to DU and the SMW, DemsRBetterLovers!

:hi:

[Roland99]

109. You know, I've looked several times for an attribution of that quote and..

can't find one.


I'd REALLY love to find out if he really said that and when/where!

[54anickel]

117. I haven't been able to find one either, but I tend to get sidetracked on

some of the great hits when you google "failed presidency". Add "Cheney" and "1998" and the hits seem to be mostly tag/signature lines on blogs. Like I said, I haven't looked that hard as I always get sidetracked.

So, anyway....does anyone remember what the Repukes were saying gas prices would go up to if we elected Kerry? Was it $3 or $5 a gallon? Maybe it was $80-100 per barrel for oil? Funny, both being forecast under Bush as we type.

[DemsRBetterLovers]

125. I'm not sure where its from either...

It could very well be an untrue spawn of the internet, since I havent seen it in context. I'm sure its true though. I remember being a pizza delivery boy and having to pay $1.75 for gas and being furious about it. Its funny, you dont see dems using this quote alot more.

[ozymandius]

108. my drive-by posting

12:38 some kind of settling seems to be taking shape

Dow 10,733.67 -112.62 (-1.04%)
Nasdaq 2,035.29 -18.83 (-0.92%)
S&P 500 1,232.61 -9.68 (-0.78%)
10-Yr Bond 50.57 -0.14 (-0.28%)
NYSE Volume 1,263,632,000
Nasdaq Volume 911,959,000

12:30 pm : Little has changed since the last update as the afternoon session gets underway. All 10 economic sectors continue to sport losses paced by a 1.8% sell-off in Industrials which leaves the influential sector's 2.1% year-to-date advance in jeopardy. Aside from GE's lackluster guidance dragging on the sector, another 2.7% drubbing on the Dow Jones Transportation Index amid further profit-taking in all 20 components is also taking a toll. FedEx (FDX 107.75 -2.80) has been a notable laggard after it was subpoenaed as part of a probe of the cargo industry.DJ30 -114.78 DJTA -2.7% NASDAQ -20.40 SP500 -10.74 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2130/708/902 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2342/732/844 mln

[Roland99]

110. Everyone's at lunch tossing down 2-3 martinis and laughing at their profit

[UpInArms]

112. 12:46 EST seems to have caught an updraft

Dow 10,757.84 -88.45 (-0.82%)
Nasdaq 2,039.94 -14.17 (-0.69%)
S&P 500 1,235.37 -6.92 (-0.56%)
10-Yr Bond 5.055 -0.16 (-0.32%)

NYSE Volume 1,298,288,000
Nasdaq Volume 941,164,000

[Roland99]

116. 1:02pm and flirting with triple-digit loss again

[VegasWolf]

118. Dow testing June lows. NASDAC near 52 wk lows. nt

[Roland99]

124. Just realized S&P blew thru lower support levels. At 1,233 right now.

[Roland99]

122. 1:41:pm - Markets cut losses in half

DJIA 10,758.32 -87.97 -0.81%
Nasdaq 2,043.33 -10.78 -0.52%
S&P 500 1,237.08 -5.21 -0.42%
Dow Util 418.24 +0.91 +0.22%
NYSE 7,947.04 -44.81 -0.56%
AMEX 1,892.66 -7.22 -0.38%
Russell 2000 682.99 -4.30 -0.63%
Semcond 412.46 +1.43 +0.35%
Gold future 668.00 +13.60 +2.08%
30-Year Bond 5.12% +0.00 +0.08%
10-Year Bond 5.07% -0.00 -0.08%

[Roland99]

123. Well, now it's back to triple-digit losses

Up/down/up/down/up/down

[Roland99]

126. 2:26pm - Back near bloody session lows

DJIA 10,714.95 -131.34 -1.21%
Nasdaq 2,031.57 -22.54 -1.10%
S&P 500 1,232.02 -10.27 -0.83%
Dow Util 417.86 +0.53 +0.13%
NYSE 7,922.20 -69.65 -0.87%
AMEX 1,890.74 -9.14 -0.48%
Russell 2000 678.57 -8.72 -1.27%
Semcond 408.41 -2.62 -0.64%
Gold future 668.00 +13.60 +2.08%
30-Year Bond 5.12% +0.00 +0.02%
10-Year Bond 5.06% -0.01 -0.20%

"You've got a lot of things that are just negative for this market and when you add the geopolitical misadventures from North Korea right through to the Middle East, you have the straw on the back of a market that is already under stress," said Joe Liro, equity strategist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates.

Liro said investors are worried about the double impact of slowing economic growth and rising oil prices.

"Energy prices are inevitably going to take a bite out of the economy and are really going to put a squeeze on profits both through rising input costs and in time higher labor cost because sooner or later, labor is going to want to be compensated for higher energy costs," said Liro.

In addition, Liro said higher oil prices make it more difficult for the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates as it attempts to prevent these higher energy costs from boosting inflationary pressures in the economy.

[stop the bleeding]

127. I think the rocket hitting the Israeli ship is giving the market

even more jitters, still too early to count out those faeries

[UpInArms]

131. Hezbollah leader's home destroyed: AP

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B22EAD6F7%2D276D%2D4D74%2D99EC%2DCB788CA89315%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The militant Hezbollah group said the home and office of its leader, Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, were destroyed by an Israeli airstrike Friday, but that he and his family were safe, according to media reports. Nasrallah said his group is ready for "open war" with Israel, the Associated Press reported. The airstrikes came as Israel pressed its incursion into Lebanon after Islamic militants captured two Israeli soldiers and killed eight Wednesday. The death toll in three days of fighting rose to 73 killed in Lebanon and 12 in Israel, according to the AP.

[Roland99]

132. Let's not forget that Bush did a CUT AND RUN from diplomacy *10 DAYS*

after taking the oath of office.


He withdrew from the Israeli/Palestinian peace process *10 DAYS* into his pResidency.

[UpInArms]

135. 2001: US diplomacy (or lack thereof)

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/world/2001/review_of_2001/1723363.stm

The victory of George W Bush in the US presidential elections meant that Washington largely withdrew from active involvement in Middle East diplomacy.

The contrast with the personal engagement of former President Bill Clinton could not have been starker.

President Bush did say in October that the creation of a Palestinian state had always been part of the US vision for the Middle East.

But in November, US Secretary of State Colin Powell announced greater US involvement in the region, starting with the appointment of two envoys - though both were back in Washington by the year's end having achieved nothing substantial.

The main US intervention in the region came from Senator George Mitchell.

His report, delivered in May, drew together the main causes of the violence behind the intifada. His criticism of both sides was even handed and he made some unpalatable recommendations.

...more...

[54anickel]

141. Clinton was doin' that "Nation Building" stuff that Repubs want no part

of, Bush is "spreadin' Democracy - American Style". No need for diplomacy, no need for allies....we are a "manly" nation - damnit! :puke:

[RawMaterials]

133. 24 hr gold sitting at $666

any similarities with everything going on in the middle east? :tinfoilhat:

[Roland99]

134. he he. (Geek hat on) There's actually scholastic discussion it is "616"

instead of "666".

(Geek hat off)

[UpInArms]

137. 3:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,738.31 -107.98 (-1.00%)
Nasdaq 2,037.60 -16.52 (-0.80%)
S&P 500 1,234.78 -7.51 (-0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 5.057 -0.14 (-0.28%)

NYSE Volume 1,964,417,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,430,499,000

3:00 pm : Sellers remain in total control of the action heading into the final hour of trading for the week. Unlike the recent action seen on closely-watched "investor fear gauges" like the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE NASDAQ Volatility Index), though, a decline on the VXN actually suggests that further downside may be limited, which could whet the appetites of those waiting to pick up some bargains following three straight days of sharp losses which have so far included a more than 400-point dismantling on the Dow. DJ30 -128.35 NASDAQ -21.03 SP500 -9.45 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2168/779/1.40 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2323/885/1.32 bln

2:30 pm : Market is retracing morning lows as growing uncertainty about a potential cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon anytime soon still provides little reason to own stocks going into the weekend. Not even bonds are garnering much interest today, unlike the flight to quality that helped push yields lower across the curve on Thursday. However, it is worth noting that the yield on the 10-yr note now 20 basis points below the fed fund rate does provide a good indication that policy makers may pause at their next meeting on August 8. To wit, interest-rate futures are now pricing in only a 53% chance the Fed will raise its overnight lending rate to 5.50%. DJ30 -131.54 NASDAQ -21.81 SP500 -9.96 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2097/832/1.29 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2331/842/1.22 bln

[spotbird]

138. They may make it only double digit

loss.

[stop the bleeding]

140. 99 point loss or 20 point loss there is a

big difference, right now I would lean towards the 90 unless there is some kind of resurection, and if it is 90ish well I wouldn't consider that a good thing. 400 points in 3 days *whistling through teeth*

[spotbird]

143. Looks like I spoke too soon. nt

[sendero]

144. On rough..

... Fridays, I always expect the worst bloodletting to happen near the close. People want out for the weekend :)

[Roland99]

145. Just a few points above session lows right now.

[stop the bleeding]

146. enter the faeries

back to double digit loss :eyes: cause things are sooooo rosy right now in the world :eyes::eyes::eyes::eyes::eyes:

[Roland99]

151. Bet that was the PPT using some of that REPO cash

;)

[VegasWolf]

155. PPT was my thought!! Market makers playing FUNNY games at the last. XOM

jumping around like a maniac.

[Roland99]

156. Markets were making some odd jumps all day long.

[Roland99]

147. Vultures doing some bargain buying.

DJIA 10,752.40 -93.89 -0.87%
Nasdaq 2,041.52 -12.59 -0.61%
S&P 500 1,237.22 -5.07 -0.41%
Dow Util 417.97 +0.64 +0.15%
NYSE 7,952.73 -39.12 -0.49%
AMEX 1,897.83 -2.05 -0.11%
Russell 2000 683.79 -3.50 -0.51%
Semcond 409.47 -1.56 -0.38%
Gold future 668.00 +13.60 +2.08%
30-Year Bond 5.11% -0.00 -0.08%
10-Year Bond 5.06% -0.01 -0.24%

[sendero]

148. Looks like 90...

... was a pretty good guess!

[Roland99]

149. -106.54 right now...last min. settling.

[sendero]

152. Kind of a photo finish..

... between double and triple digit losses on the dow :)

[stop the bleeding]

150. we'll have to wait for the official blather and numbers

I had 99.something @ 4pm but now in after hours it is back to triple digits -106.70 right now

[sendero]

153. I think..

... that's going to be the close.

[UpInArms]

139. Tribune to cut 120 positions from Chicago newspaper

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B03419577%2D70AB%2D43EC%2DB4A7%2D2AB68100803E%7D&symbol=

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Tribune Co. will cut about 120 jobs from its flagship newspaper as it struggles to cope with declining circulation, a choppy advertising environment and a battle with key board members over the strategic direction of the company.

About 80 jobs at The Chicago Tribune will be erased in the months ahead, while about 40 jobs vacant since the beginning of the year won't be filled, an article in the newspaper said Friday.

It is uncertain how many newsroom jobs will be eliminated, the Tribune said.
Tribune Co. (TRB) on Thursday reported weak second-quarter results that reflected a charge for two TV stations it sold in June, as well as ongoing softness in a variety of advertising categories. See full story.

The company is in a battle with the Chandler Trusts, its second-largest shareholder, over how to revive the stock, which has lost nearly half its value over the past two years. The Chandlers advocate that Tribune Co. spin off its broadcasting division, which includes 26 television stations, or begin to consider putting the media company up for sale.

Tribune is selling certain noncore assets and finding ways to cut about $200 million in costs. It is also in the middle of a $2.5 million stock repurchase plan, a plan that raised the Chandlers' ire.

...more...

[Roland99]

154. Closing numbers: Looks like this is the end of a BAD week.

DJIA 10,739.35 -106.94 -0.99%
Nasdaq 2,037.35 -16.76 -0.82%
S&P 500 1,236.20 -6.09 -0.49%
Dow Util 418.12 +0.79 +0.19%
NYSE 7,950.04 -41.81 -0.52%
AMEX 1,895.27 -4.61 -0.24%
Russell 2000 681.24 -6.05 -0.88%
Semcond 409.01 -2.02 -0.49%
Gold future 668.00 +13.60 +2.08%
30-Year Bond 5.11% -0.00 -0.08%
10-Year Bond 5.06% -0.01 -0.24%

[stop the bleeding]

157. unless you are a short seller

:evilgrin:

I love buying and selling back the Puts and Calls :evilgrin:

[Roland99]

158. Bragging like that is gonna cost you a few rounds of drinks, at least!

:evilgrin:

[stop the bleeding]

159. to be honest my partner I cooled it for most of this week

I wish we were short selling the whole time, we stayed on the sidelines most of the week and watched the bloodletting from a safe distance, but hey I will still do the drinks - it is Friday after all ;)

Take care everyone and remember to keep the ME in your thoughts this weekendO8)

[Roland99]

160. Cheers!

:toast:

[UpInArms]

161. annoyed with reality intrusion blather

The major averages chalked up their worst three-day loss in over a year as growing uncertainty about a potential cease-fire between Israel and Lebanon lifted oil to record levels and kept buyers on the sidelines heading into the weekend.

Even though crude oil for August delivery closed well off its intraday, all-time high of $78.40, a $77 price tag for a barrel of black gold, especially with the summer driving season in full swing, tarnished all hopes at a potential rebound following two consecutive days of sharp losses. In fact, the belief that escalating unrest in the Middle East may get much worse before it gets better pushed the October oil contract above $80 per barrel.

While oil making new highs everyday continues to position oil stocks for another strong quarter of earnings growth, the only other sectors joining Energy (+1.2%) to the upside Friday were Materials, Telecom and Utilities -- the three least influential of the 10 SnP 500 sectors -- which barely finished above the flat line. The absence of leadership from Industrials weighed most heavily on the market as rising energy prices prompted more consolidation throughout the transportation group. The inability by the Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors to benefit whatsoever from their defensive characteristics further underscored the market's widespread nervousness.

Also preventing bargain hunters from getting back into a market that is showing signs of oversold conditions was the reality that more warnings hit the wires than good earnings reports, raising worries that Wall Street estimates, which just a few weeks ago called for 12% growth over the second half of the year, will have to keep coming down.

Home builder DR Horton (DHI 21.21 -1.65) slashed its Q3 and full-year EPS guidance due to deteriorating market conditions and Borders Group (BGP 17.55 -0.73) warned that it will miss analysts' expectations due to waning sales. While it initially appeared as though bellwether General Electric (GE 32.10 -0.57) may stem some of the broad-based selling pressure after it reported a mild Q2 profit improvement, further analysis of a Q3 outlook that checked in at the low end of analysts' forecasts added to concerns about earnings prospects in the face of a slowing economy.

June retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% (consensus +0.4%) and exacerbated fears of a significant consumer slowdown.

Also weighing on sentiment was the Bank of Japan raising its overnight rate for the first time in six years to 0.25%. Even though the move was widely expected, it puts the BOJ on board with other central banks around the world that have been working to keep inflation under control with higher rates that, in turn, will slow economic growth. BTK -1.79% DJ30 -106.94 DJTA -1.45% DJUA +0.19% DOT -0.67% NASDAQ -16.76 NQ100 -1.08% R2K -0.89% SOX -0.49% SP400 -0.72% SP500 -6.09 XOI +0.93% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2034/949/1.81 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2200/1042/1.72 bln

[Roland99]

164. "market that is showing signs of oversold conditions" seems to contradict

the following statement about the earnings warnings.

If earnings warnings are coming in, is that really a sign it's oversold?

:eyes:

[ozone_man]

166. It was oversold a few weeks ago,

where we saw a nice retrace. Now we resume the free fall. ;)

[ozymandius]

165. Dang! Reality hardly seems welcome in Blatherland.

Also preventing bargain hunters from getting back into a market that is showing signs of oversold conditions was the reality that more warnings hit the wires than good earnings reports

But at least they're not trying to blame it on the weather ... or runny cheese ... or rude sales clerks.

Have a great weekend!

Ozy :hi:

[Roland99]

167. "I don't care *how* facking runny it is."

"Aww...the cat's eaten it."

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

162. Chimp's 5 1/2 year, 268 point Dow.

By Wednesday we could be looking at a Zero/Negative Dow.

[UpInArms]

163. Former Merrill analyst pleads guilty to insider trading(Goldman Sachs also

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B274EBAEF%2DD747%2D4EAB%2D95A0%2D7D00BC0B9B00%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Federal prosecutors said Friday Stanislav Shpigelman, a former investment banking analyst with Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER : 67.49, -1.01, -1.5% ) , pleaded guilty in federal court to insider
trading. Michael Garcia, the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, said in a statement that Shpigelman, 23, Brooklyn, N.Y., pleaded guilty in Manhattan federal court based on his involvement with Eugene Plotkin, a former associate at Goldman Sachs & Co., and others in a "massive" insider trading scheme that resulted in more than $6 million in illicit gains. Shpigelman, who admitted that he leaked inside information to Plotkin and others about pending mergers and acquisitions, faces a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison. Plotkin and others were arrested on April 11, and the Securities and Exchange Commission has lodged civil charges against 13 people involved in the scam.