STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday 17 July

[ozymandius]

Monday July 17, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 919 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2032 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1732 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1693
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 14, 2006

Dow... 10,739.35 -106.94 (-0.99%)
Nasdaq... 2,037.35 -16.76 (-0.82%)
S&P 500... 1,236.20 -6.09 (-0.49%)
Gold future... 668.00 +13.60 (+2.04%)
30-Year Bond 5.11% -0.00 (-0.08%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.06% -0.01 (-0.24%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Tim W. Wood

THE DOW REPORT
Bull and Bear Market Relationships

Most everyone who has heard of Dow theory understands the elementary principle of confirmation and non-confirmation between the Industrials and the Transports. There are many other principles of Dow theory that few understand. Among these principles are the concept of Primary movement verses Secondary movement, bull and bear market phasing buying and selling spots verses confirmation of buy and sell spots, and value to name a few.

I noticed from my study of Dow theory that there was an historical relationship between previous bull and bear markets. I have talked about the bull and bear market relationships here before, but it has been a while and it’s now time to review this topic again. When studying about the bull and bear markets of the late 1800’s and very early 1900’s, I realized that the bull and bear markets that the early Dow theorists wrote about were much shorter in duration than they are today. Now understand that cycles are not a part of Dow theory, but when I looked at the early bull and bear market periods as defined by our Dow theory fathers, I realized that these bull and bear market periods consisted of a single 4-year cycle. The bull market was one and the same with the upside of the 4-year cycle and the bear market was one and the same as the downside piece of the 4-year cycle.

-cut-

But, when reading about the bull and bear market periods of the past, another relationship became obvious. That being, the duration of the bear market in relationship to the preceding bull market. I found that the early bear market periods, as defined by these great Dow theorists, were roughly one-third the duration of the preceding bull market. But what about the Great bull and bear market periods?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozone_man]

52. We have a long way to go.

We're just entering the second phase. An excellent comparison with the three phases of the 1966 to 1974 great bear market.

Another very, very important and often overlooked aspect of the Dow theory that very few understand is the phasing of bull and bear markets. The great Dow theorist E. George Schaefer stated: “There are three principle phases of a bear market: the first represents the abandonment of the hopes upon which stocks were purchased at inflated prices; the second reflects selling due to decreased business and earnings, and the third is caused by distressed selling of sound securities, regardless of their value, by those who must find a cash market for at least a portion of their assets.” These words are merely a guideline, and here too, the application of this concept is where the art and the science meet.

The great Dow theorist of the 1930’s, Robert Rhea, described the three phases of the bear market in a very similar way. More importantly, Rhea goes on and states: "Each of these phases seems to be divided by a secondary reaction which is often erroneously assumed to be the beginning of a bull market.” Does this sound familiar, or what? Rhea also states: “Such secondary movements seldom prove perplexing to those who understand the Dow theory.”

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

8:30 AM NY Empire State Index Jul
Briefing Forecast 20.0
Market Expects 21.8
Prior 29.0

9:15 AM Capacity Utilization Jun
Briefing Forecast 82.0%
Market Expects 81.9%
Prior 81.7%

9:15 AM Industrial Production Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.5%
Market Expects 0.4%
Prior -0.1%

[UpInArms]

33. U.S. July Empire State index falls to 15.6 vs 29.0 in June

8:30 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. JULY EMPIRE STATE PRICES PAID INDEX 50.5 VS 52.9 JUNE

8:30 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. JULY EMPIRE STATE NEW ORDERS INDEX 10.3 VS 25.8 IN JUNE

8:30 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. JULY EMPIRE STATE EMPLOYMENT INDEX 6.5 VS 5.1 IN JUNE

8:30 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. JULY EMPIRE STATE INDEX BELOW CONSENSUS 20.6

8:30 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. JULY EMPIRE STATE INDEX 15.6 VS 29.0 IN JUNE

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B678F28D5%2DB431%2D435E%2D8222%2DA811BDD057A5%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area increased in July, but at a slower pace than June, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday. The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell to 15.6 in July after surging to 29.0 in June. The decrease was larger than expected. Economists were expecting the index to only fall back to 20.6. New orders and shipments dropped sharply in June. The prices paid index inched lower, while the employment index inched higher.

Imagine that! Surprised eCONomists!

[UpInArms]

38. U.S. June industrial production rises 0.8%

9:15 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 4.5% IN PAST YEAR

9:15 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. JUNE MOTOR VEHICLE OUTPUT UP 3.3%

9:15 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. JUNE HIGH-TECH OUTPUT RISES 1.1%

9:15 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. JUNE MANUFACTURING OUTPUT UP 0.7%

9:15 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. JUNE CAPACITY UTILIZATION RISES TO 82.4%, 6-YR HIGH

9:15 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. 2Q INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 6.6% RATE, MOST SINCE 1999

9:15 AM ET 7/17/06 U.S. JUNE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 0.8% VS. 0.5% EXPECTED

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B816CE293%2D47A0%2D45AE%2DB591%2D966EC1F2F657%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Capping the strongest quarterly growth in 6 years, U.S. industrial output surged 0.8% in June, boosted by strong output at factories, mines and utilities, the Federal Reserve said Monday. Capacity utilization rose to 82.4%, the highest level in six years, the Fed said. Manufacturing and utility output each rose 0.7% in June, while the output of mines rose 1.2%. For the second quarter, industrial production increased at a 6.6% annual rate, the most since the fourth quarter of 1999. Economists were looking for a gain in output of about 0.5% in June. Capacity utilization was expected to rise to 81.9%.

:wtf: I guess they no longer count those closed factories in the equation - 'cause there have been lots of factories that have just shut their doors. This one is definitely weird :eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

75. "no longer count those closed factories in the equation"

Of course not. It's a sliding scale - sliding all the way down.

But profits will be up!

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise on Mideast turmoil

SINGAPORE - Crude oil prices rose Monday as escalating fighting between Israel and militants in Lebanon created more geopolitical uncertainty in a market already jittery over volatility in oil-producing countries.

Analysts said the Mideas violence was driving oil prices higher though it had no direct effect on oil supplies because it added more nervousness to a market already placed on edge by strong global demand and a tight supply cushion.

-cut-

Light, sweet crude for August delivery gained 55 cents to $77.58 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, mid-afternoon in Singapore.

The contract reached an intraday record of $78.40 a barrel Friday before settling at an all-time closing high of $77.03.

more

[ozymandius]

4. OPEC sees slower oil demand growth in 2007

LONDON (Reuters) - World oil demand will rise more slowly in 2007 than this year partly because of slower economic growth and record high oil prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Monday.

Oil demand next year will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2007, less than this year's expansion of 1.4 million bpd, the producer group said in a monthly report.

more

[Ghost Dog]

23. Crisis prompts Japan to cut heavy reliance on Middle East oil

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060717/afp/060717020846business.html

SAINT PETERSBURG (AFP) - The latest Middle East crisis has re-awakened Japan to the need to reduce its heavy reliance on oil from the volatile region and should spur it to step up efforts to secure alternative energy suppliers.

Energy security is high on the agenda at this year's of Group of Eight summit, being held here amid mounting anxiety over record high oil prices and fears that Israeli military offensives in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip will trigger a wider conflict.

Leaders of the world's most powerful nations pledged Sunday to promote "open, transparent" energy markets, while vowing to pursue development of alternative energy sources, including nuclear power.

"The Middle East crisis has again called Japan to reconsider its heavy reliance on crude oil from the region," said John Kirton, director of the G8 Research Group.

Tokyo relies totally on oil imports, 90 percent of them from the Middle East.

<snip>

Japan is also facing another potential blow to its oil import security as Iran has warned that a two-billion-dollar deal with Tokyo to develop the Azadegan oil field could be cancelled in response to US pressure for a halt to investment in Iran.

/more...

[ozymandius]

5. Pinched at the Pump

High fuel prices are pushing some drivers to the financial brink—and to the pawnshop for gas money. Low-wage earners are feeling the most pain.

-cut-

California's sky-high gasoline prices are slamming Godino and other motorists who had been barely getting by. Californians, saddled with the nation's priciest gasoline outside of Hawaii, are paying more than 70 cents a gallon extra compared with a year ago and nearly $1 more than two summers back.

The wallop is worsened by interest rates that are at their highest levels in more than five years, boosting adjustable-rate mortgages and credit card bills and jacking up the minimum payments on most credit cards.

-cut-

"For some people, their cost for gas has doubled in a short amount of time," said Susan Ulaga, senior vice president at Consumer Credit Counseling Services, a California nonprofit. "People are able to shift money around for a while, but eventually the credit card limits kick in … and once that credit is used up, they are saying, 'What do I do now?' "

more

[Roland99]

27. I wonder how much of a hit spending from teenagers has taken?

They're having to put a lot of their meager earnings into the gas tank instead of movie tickets and fast food and clothes.

[UpInArms]

30. Crude Futures @ $76.41 bbl

8:20 AM ET 7/17/06 CRUDE FUTURES DOWN 62C AT $76.41 A BARREL, OFF WORST LEVELS

[UpInArms]

48. August Crude @ $76.65 bbl - NatGas @ $6.18 mln btus

10:01 AM ET 7/17/06 AUGUST CRUDE FALLS 38 CENTS TO $76.65/BRL IN EARLY TRADING

10:01 AM ET 7/17/06 AUGUST NATURAL GAS FALLS 16.7 CENTS TO $6.18/MLN BTUS

[4dsc]

59. Oil rigs leave Gulf of Mexico for more lucrative jobs

Follow the money!!

http://www.chieftain.com/business/1153041947/2

The biggest long-term threat to oil and natural-gas production in the Gulf of Mexico isn't hurricanes. It is the dwindling supply of drilling equipment.

Jack-up and deep-water rigs, the massive platforms and ships that drill for oil and gas in the ocean, are leaving the Gulf of Mexico for more lucrative jobs elsewhere.

This is expected to accelerate production declines in the Gulf, putting upward pressure on domestic energy prices. The rig exodus is squeezing what was an already tight market for drilling equipment. In 2001, about 148 rigs were in the Gulf. Now, about 90 remain, and more are expected to leave soon.

The rig migration will have the most pronounced effect on natural-gas production and prices because most of the rigs leaving the Gulf are jack-ups used to find gas in shallower waters. Gulf gas reservoirs are often quickly exhausted, so energy companies must keep punching new wells to maintain production. It "certainly puts an upward bias to natural-gas prices in the long-term," says Jeff Tillery, an analyst with Pickering Energy Partners.

[ozymandius]

6. Mideast violence, surging oil seen hitting Wall St

PARIS (Reuters) - U.S. shares were set to fall on Monday as escalating violence in the Middle East pushed oil toward $78 a barrel, adding to investors' worries about the health of the U.S. economy and prospects for interest rates.

-cut-

By 0930 GMT, U.S. stock futures were pointing to opening losses of around 0.3 percent for the three main indexes as oil pushed toward record highs after a weekend of worsening conflict between Israel and Hizbollah guerrillas.

The situation unnerved traders, who feared the violence could escalate and spread across the oil-producing Middle East.

more

[UpInArms]

11. Oil hits record, dlr up on Mideast conflict

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-17T111655Z_01_L17472296_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-GLOBAL-WRAPUP-3.XML

LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - Oil fell back from record prices and gold dropped from its highest level in almost two months on Monday on reports Israel might soon end its Lebanon offensive, although the government quickly said it had no intention of halting operations against Hizbollah guerrillas yet.

Market volatility was whipped up as Israel's Channel 10 television quoted a senior military officer as saying Israel could wrap up its offensive within days but also that it could escalate its assault by destroying Lebanon's electricity grid.

Government spokesman Miri Eisin responded, saying: "We have no intention of stopping as of yet."

The dollar and government bonds stayed at month highs but shares failed to rally on the varying reports, on a day that Israeli air strikes killed a further 23 people in Lebanon.

United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan said at the G8 summit in St Petersburg that Security Council members would start working out details of a new multilateral force for south Lebanon but Israel dismissed the proposal as premature.

...more...

[UpInArms]

45. Israel ground forces move against Hezbollah

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B7DD35313%2D78FC%2D466A%2D928A%2DC284667071A2%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Israel launched a ground mission Monday in southern Lebanon to attack Hezbollah strongholds, reportedly with the intention of creating a frontier buffer zone, as world leaders called for a U.N. peacekeeping force as the conflict moved into its sixth day Monday.

An Israeli military officer told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that troops had leveled land inside Lebanon, according to the English-language online edition of the Israeli newspaper Haaretz. Haaretz reported the Israeli goal was a 1-kilometer buffer beyond its northern border.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair and U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan said international forces should be deployed in southern Lebanon.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow may send troops, and the European Union formally announced plans to consider a peacekeeping force.

Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, speaking after talks with Syrian Vice President Farouk al-Sharaa, said a cease-fire and a prisoner swap would be "acceptable and fair" in the conflict.

Meanwhile, fighting raged on as three rounds of rockets fired by Hezbollah guerrillas struck Haifa, destroying a three-story building and wounding three people, Israeli medics told the Associated Press.

...more...

[ozymandius]

7. New data may yield clarity for investors

NEW YORK - Although a whirlwind of bad news and deepening uncertainty sent stocks tumbling last week, Wall Street could see a return to reason in the week ahead with a fresh round of economic and earnings data that could help investors regain their footing.

The tidal wave of events last week couldn't have been worse for the market. Profit warnings and disappointing earnings from Alcoa Inc. and General Electric Co. drove fears about slowing economic growth, while escalating tension in the Middle East,
Iran and North Korea sent oil prices racing to new record highs.

Nervous investors quickly backed out of stocks, giving Wall Street its worst weekly performance of the year. The Dow Jones industrial average logged three days of triple-digit declines, losing 396 points from Wednesday through Friday.

-cut-

Wall Street will be focused mostly on the Labor Department's producer price index Tuesday morning. Wholesale prices — considered a precursor to consumer inflation — are expected to grow 0.3 percent in June after rising 0.2 percent the prior month. Core PPI, which excludes volatile energy and food costs, are seen gaining 0.2 percent.

more

[Ghost Dog]

24. Bernanke to keep options open in testimony

http://yahoo.reuters.com/business/newsArticle.aspx?type=ousiv&storyid=2006-07-16T164102Z_01_N16327342_RTRIDST_0_BUSINESSPRO-ECONOMY-BERNANKE-DC.XML&WTmodLoc=HybArt-R3-MostViewedBiz-1
Sun Jul 16, 2006 12:41pm ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Analysis - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will keep his interest-rate options open in this week's testimony on the U.S. economy to satisfy two masters: growth-hungry lawmakers and inflation-wary financial markets.

To safely walk this high wire, economists expect the Fed chief to follow an outline already laid out -- the statement the central bank issued last month when it announced a 17th consecutive increase in benchmark U.S. interest rates.

"He has to strike the right balance to not sound like an ogre to Congress, while not sounding like a wimp to the bond market," said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers.

By dropping language that suggested an inclination to keep pushing borrowing costs up, the June 29 statement broke with a string of rate announcements issued in the course of the Fed's two-year credit-tightening campaign and freed the central bank to either pause or raise rates further as it sees fit.

Bernanke, who has had his share of communications missteps in his nearly six months on the job, presents the Fed's semiannual monetary policy report to the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday and the House of Representatives' Financial Services Committee on Thursday.

/more...

[ozymandius]

8. Toyota may look to block Nissan/GM deal: report

TOKYO (Reuters) - Top executives at Toyota Motor Corp. are considering options to head off rivals Nissan Motor Co. and Renault from forging an alliance with General Motors Corp. according to BusinessWeek.

Citing unnamed sources, a July 15 article on the magazine's Web site said Japan's Toyota, the world's most profitable car maker, is considering its options and looking at different opportunities it could propose to GM.

"Toyota has no interest in seeing an alliance like this take place," an executive, who asked not to be identified, told BusinessWeek.

GM, Renault SA and Nissan agreed on Friday to take 90 days to review the benefits of a potential alliance, which could lead to the birth of the world's biggest auto group with annual sales of 15 million vehicles -- the size of two Toyotas.

more

[ozymandius]

9. Yahoo Finance gets a facelift

Yahoo Finance was set to get a facelift on Monday with new interactive stock charts, improved message boards and business-related video clips from content partners. In addition, Yahoo is offering Internet publishers the ability to easily add a stock chart, quotes and news headlines to their Web site.

The new Yahoo Finance beta site features a full-screen application that allows users to add events like whether a company has had stock splits or dividends with one click, see competitor charts and click and drag to customize a chart's time range, as well as type in specific dates.

Yahoo Finance message boards also will provide more information on postings, the ability to rate messages, and to sort and filter messages based on ratings. Discussions appear as threaded conversations under topics as opposed to being listed chronologically.

http://news.com.com/Yahoo+Finance+gets+a+facelift/2100-1038_3-6094693.html

[UpInArms]

10. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.85 Change +0.58 (+0.67%)

Dollar Attraction Stronger Than Fundamentals

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_financial_markets_headlines/Dollar_Attraction_Stronger_Than_Fundamentals_1152900460472.html

As oil prices soar on international exchanges and geo-political tensions flare, the value of the dollar shone through sour economic releases for the day. This was a surprising feat given the economic expansion implications surrounding the weakening consumer sector with a falling retail sales and U of M confidence gauge. Price action was, though showing some periods of the opposite, was undyingly dollar bullish. Most of the pairs have established strong trendlines supporting greenback advances in their respective pairs.

Beginning in the benchmark, euro-denominated major, the falling trendline from the pivot high on Wednesday received multiple tests of the moving resistance. A spike high to the repeatedly tested 1.2690 level was the last push in the euro’s favor before the pair sank 75 points to the day’s low at 1.2625. Similar to the euro pair, the USDCHF was using its rising trendline, going back to last Friday, to progress higher. A test of 1.2292 support gave way to a long, choppy advance to 1.2378 set in the late-morning hours of the New York session. The USDJPY, whose own rising resistance goes back to Wednesday, made a respectable 100 point run to 116.40 before consolidating into a 5 point range by mid-day. Finally, the only major not producing its only trendline, the GBPUSD, was also the big mover today. Pound accumulation in the European session gave way to a strong 105 point run in a little over an hour when US data sank the pair to 1.8340.

Economics were back on tap Friday as a number of usual market movers provided clearer view of how the Fed’s meeting in August would play out. Out of the gates simultaneously were June measures of the average price of imports and retail sales. The import gauge was the first in the line of disappointing indicators that would be released for the day. A significant contributor to inflation, import prices for the month severely decreased their pace of growth to 0.1% from a revised 1.6% pace the month ago. Moving from inflation policy to growth policy in the FOMC checklist, the dollar moved onto June’s retail sale performance. According to the Census Bureau release, sales contracted 0.1% on expectations of an acceleration to 0.4% growth. This was a blow to speculatory hawks who were banking on strong growth numbers to prop up the need for the Fed to continue its string of rate hikes to control price growth and bring the economy into a stable pattern of expansion. When stripping the ailing activity in the automotive and parts sector however, sales had actually fallen just short of expectations by rising 0.3%. This component rise was largely influenced by the 1.1% jump in receipts at the pump as gasoline climbed towards the $3.00 per gallon mark progressively through the end of the month. Overall retail sales accounts for over a third of GDP, so while this print failed to rouse much of an anti-dollar reaction, it probably came across loud and clear for economists and policy officials. The market worthy release for the day was the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence survey. Results from the survey reported confidence had actually fallen in June to mark a read of 83.0, when the broad consensus was for an increase to 85.6. In retrospect, predictions seemed relatively optimistic give the resurgence of energy prices, exacerbation of geo-political tensions and the poor performance of equities. An interesting facet of this indicator was the measurement of American’s expectations for inflation in the coming year and five years. Though prices are high now and media continues to churn out frightful predictions of labor market health and burdensome gasoline, consumers actually lowered their predictions of inflation for both time frames to 3.1% and 2.8% respectively. Looking ahead to Monday, there will be fresh offerings to reestablish a proper dollar response when the Empire Manufacturing survey and industrial production read hit the wires.

US equities kept to their neck-break pace of declines Friday, looking to notch the third consecutive day of triple digit losses as weak consumer sentiment, war in the middle east and soaring crude threatened revenue potentials. The Dow took the crown for decliners by sitting on a floating 0.9% decline at 10,747.16 by 17:45 GMT. Trailing behind with equally impressive drops, the NASDAQ Composite lost 0.7% to 2,040.33 and the SP500 slipped 0.6% to 1,235.24. Making no lack of presence of its own, earnings continued to take their toll on the overall sentiment in shares. Book store chain Borders Group saw shares slip 5.5% or $1.00 to $17.28 after projecting a greater than formerly expected loss for the second quarter. On a little grander scale, General Electric Co. shares sank 1.3% or $0.41 to $32.26 though the second quarter performed as was expected on the Street.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

28. GLOBAL MARKETS-Gold, oil, dollar gain on Mideast conflict

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060717/3/2n8t2.html

SINGAPORE, July 17 (Reuters) - Gold prices hit an eight-week peak on Monday, oil futures traded near record highs and the dollar advanced against the yen and euro as investors sought safe-havens on escalating conflict in the Middle East.

"Safe-haven flows are driving the market and with a further escalation of violence in the Middle East, people are thinking that this is likely to take centre stage for markets," said Jan Lambregts, head of research, Asia, at Rabobank in Singapore.

In Asia, the MSCI index of major Asian stocks outside of Japan fell 1.2 percent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng stock index fell for the third straight day, shedding almost 1 percent to a two-week low, led by a 0.7 percent decline in shares of HSBC Holdings Plc. and a 0.9 percent decline in China Mobile. Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 stock index ended the day 0.5 percent lower, after hitting a four-week low earlier in the day, led by a 1.7 percent drop in ANZ Banking Group , while the less risky Australian government bonds rose.

Financial markets in Japan and South Korea were closed for holidays.

<snip>

With no diplomatic initiative in sight to end the fighting, analysts said the conflict could spread through the Middle East to include Iran and Syria and roil a region that supplies almost a third of the world's crude oil. "It's geo-politics at the fore," said Justin Smirk, senior economist at Westpac in Sydney. "Israel has been the key story over the weekend, with oil investors keenly watching supply-side risk should the conflict look like expanding. Listening to noises out of Iran and Syria there is clearly a risk the violence could spread elsewhere in the region." U.S. front-month crude oil futures were trading around $77.60 per barrel, above closing levels in New York and near Friday's record of $78.40.

<snip>

GOLD RUSH

Rising oil prices have triggered inflationary pressures worldwide, spooking investors who flocked to gold and other assets that are traditionally seen as a shield against wealth erosion caused by accelerating prices. Spot gold prices rose on Monday to $675.00 an ounce, their highest level since the middle of May. Gold has rebounded after plunging from a record high of $730 in May to a low of $543 in June.

"It looks like gold is certainly going to test higher at some point, unless it calms down which looks very unlikely. We don't seem to have any rationality when it comes to dealing with the Middle East," said Darren Heathcote, head of trading at Investec Australia in Sydney.

The escalating violence in the Middle East and rising inflationary pressures -- which have caused the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise its key interest rate 17 times over the past two years -- have also helped the dollar, the world's most liquid currency. The dollar rose as high as 116.39 yen on Monday, its highest level in just over two weeks. The euro weakened to about $1.2622, its lowest level since June 29.

"The escalation of violence in the Middle East over the weekend should continue to see the U.S. dollar supported as the week gets underway," said Tony Morriss, a senior currency strategist at ANZ Investment Bank.

/more...

[UpInArms]

12. Enron: The bankers, the big deal and the taint of scandal

http://observer.guardian.co.uk/uk_news/story/0,,1821613,00.html

excerpt:

Shortly before he apparently hanged himself, Coulbeck, who was 53 and retired from banking in 2004, was captured on CCTV dumping rubbish sacks at a tip in east London. There is speculation the bags contained documents relating to the Enron affair, which friends have suggested rested heavy on his mind although these claims have not been confirmed.

<snipping lots>

The case explained ...

The case against the NatWest Three centres on their involvement in a deal involving a Cayman Islands-based company. Between early 1999 and March 2000, their attitudes towards the deal change remarkably, according to emails obtained by The Observer and allegations by US prosecutors. The emails give a fascinating insight into the trio's motivation and their shifting relationship with Andrew Fastow, Enron's chief financial officer, whose financial engineering was to bring Enron down. Over a year, it is alleged, the three went from not wanting to do the legitimate deal to working out ways it could help them defraud their bank.

In May 1999, David Bermingham emails a colleague saying they should 'exercise extreme diligence' over the deal. In August 1999 he tells another colleague that the deal, as proposed by Fastow, offered 'a lot of nothing for us'.

On 20 August, Bermingham discusses ways of restructuring the deal and by December he is boasting how he has restructured it in NatWest's favour: 'I have... stripped out 94 per cent of the value remaining after Fastow put his grubby little fingers in the till.'

In early 2000 the NatWest Three seem to have experienced an epiphany. Instead of conspiring against Fastow, it is alleged they conspire with him to sell the assets of the Cayman Islands company to another company in which they own stakes at a knockdown price.

In February 2000 Giles Darby tells a NatWest colleague in Houston not to attend a meeting with Fastow but not to worry because they 'are going to get rich'. It is alleged that at this meeting Fastow and the three discuss converting Enron stock held by the Cayman Islands company, which Fastow was barred from holding, to another form of 'property' from which he could benefit.

...more...

[spinbaby]

13. I'm moving my 401k out of mutual funds today

Into the secure fund.

[fishnfla]

57. Just got a call from our financial advisor

same same

[jpak]

60. I did that 2 weeks ago

and boy am I glad I did...

[UpInArms]

14. US economy may face bigger risks due to oil, Mideast unrest

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060716/bs_afp/useconomyoilunrest

WASHINGTON (AFP) - The upsurge in Middle East violence and resulting spike in crude oil prices poses new risks to the US economy, which is already cooling from higher interest rates and other factors, experts say.

With concerns rising about an expansion of the conflict now involving
Israel and Lebanese-based Hezbollah, oil prices have hit fresh peaks, increasing a variety of costs at a time when many analysts have been calling for a "soft landing."

Recent reports on retail sales and consumer sentiment suggest the world's biggest economy economy is already retreating from its strong 5.6 pace of growth in the first quarter. But a jolt from energy costs could make the landing a lot bumpier.

"Given the unnerving developments in the Middle East, the prospects for 80-dollar oil and record gasoline prices, a clearly deteriorating job market in the US and the steady erosion in the stock market, it stands to reason that households will be much more cautious about spending in the future," said Bernard Baumohl, executive director of the Economic Outlook Group.

"The US has suddenly become vulnerable to a much more serious downturn in the second half of the year. Could geopolitical events suddenly turn a soft landing into a recession? Absolutely."

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Citigroup loses bid to dismiss Parmalat suit in NJ

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-07-14T180128Z_01_N14216273_RTRUKOC_0_US-FOOD-PARMALAT-CITIGROUP.xml

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A New Jersey state appeals court on Friday rejected Citigroup Inc.'s <C.N> bid to dismiss a $10 billion fraud lawsuit by Parmalat SpA <PLT.MI>, the Italian dairy company.

Citigroup had argued that Parmalat, best known for its long-life milk, brought the case in the wrong court.

Parmalat and Enrico Bondi, its chief executive, accused Citigroup of helping prior management hide debt and inflate results, leading to the Italian company's December 2003 insolvency. They sued Citigroup in July 2004 in state court in Hackensack.

The appeals court said the largest U.S. bank made "compelling arguments" that the case does not belong in New Jersey, but its motion to dismiss the case was premature. It gave Citigroup permission to raise its claim again.

<snip>

Parmalat collapsed with 14 billion euros ($17.7 billion) of debt, Europe's largest corporate failure, after revealing that a 4 billion euro ($5.06 billion) account supposedly held by a Cayman Islands unit did not exist.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. Citigroup profit rises 4 pct on trading, fees

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-17T110031Z_01_N17267448_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-CITIGROUP-EARNS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc. <C.N> on Monday said second-quarter profit rose 4 percent, as growth in investment banking and lower loan losses offset rising expenses and shrinking margins.

Net income for the world's largest bank by market value rose to $5.27 billion, or $1.05 per share, from $5.07 billion, or 97 cents a share, a year earlier.

Profit from continuing operations increased 11 percent to $5.26 billion, New York-based Citigroup's second highest total ever.

Revenue from continuing operations increased 10 percent to $22.18 billion, and return on common equity was 18.6 percent. Operating expenses rose 16 percent to $12.77 billion, including a 35 percent jump in investment banking pay and benefits.

<snip>

U.S. credit card profit rose 19 percent, benefiting from lower bankruptcy filings, a $193 million decline in credit losses and a $160 million release from loan loss reserves.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Merrill Analyst Pleads Guilty to Insider Deals

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/15/business/15insider.html?ex=1310616000&en=c3fbb5e10d1bf2b6&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

A former Merrill Lynch analyst accused of feeding confidential information to a $6.7 million insider trading ring pleaded guilty in federal court yesterday to one count of insider trading.

In a plea agreement with prosecutors, the former analyst, Stanislav Shpigelman, 23, of Brooklyn, admitted that he provided information about coming deals from October 2004 until August 2005 to an insider trading network that stretched from Croatia to California.

<snip>

The plea agreement recommends a sentence of 37 months to 46 months in prison, though he faces a maximum of 20 years. Mr. Shpigelman remains free on bail until his sentencing, which was set for Nov. 17 by Judge Kenneth M. Karas of United States District Court in Manhattan. Mr. Shpigelman still faces civil charges by the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Prosecutors charged Mr. Shpigelman with being the linchpin of a three-part insider trading scheme led by two former Goldman Sachs employees, Eugene Plotkin and David Pajcin. Mr. Shpigelman fed them information about six deals, netting $6.4 million in profits.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. Keep Eyes Fixed on Your Variable-Rate Mortgage

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/15/business/15money.html?ex=1153195200&en=0eded5947ac6de12&ei=5087%0A

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

The raising of interest rates on millions of adjustable rate mortgages over the next several years has all the makings of a classic horror story.

As home prices appreciated from ridiculously high to unbelievably higher, more Americans began using mortgages that allowed them to buy more house for less of a monthly payment. Next year, a large portion of those rates move up and homeowners who opted for the exotic mortgages could find their payments doubled. Talk about bloody. They need to find a way to minimize the pain.

<snip>

On a personal level, however, there is going to be pain as homeowners struggle to make higher payments. In 2003, of all new mortgages, 10.2 percent were interest-only, meaning the homeowner paid only the interest for the initial period of the loan. According to Loan Performance, a research firm, 26.7 percent of all loans were interest-only last year and another 15.3 percent were payment-option adjustable rate mortgages, which allow homeowners to choose how much they paid each month.

In some areas of the country where homes are expensive, these loans were highly popular. In most California cities, as well as in Denver, Washington, Phoenix and Seattle, interest-only loans represented 40 percent or more of all mortgages issued in 2005.

Traditionally, interest-only loans and adjustable-rate loans were used by people who expected to live in a house only a short time, but such loans have turned into “affordability products” as housing prices rose. The interest rate on the loans, while below that of conventional 30-year fixed-rate mortgages at the beginning, resets after 3, 5, 7 or 10 years, depending on the loan. So, homeowners who took out loans in 2004 could find, for example, that their initial 4.25 percent loan climbs to 6.25 percent or 7.25 percent next year.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. Retail Sales, Expected to Rise, Instead Fell in June

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/15/business/15econ.html?ex=1310616000&en=1b22006b094b030c&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

WASHINGTON, July 14 (Dow Jones) — Retail sales fell in June by a seasonally adjusted 0.1 percent, the Commerce Department said Friday, the first decline in four months.

The decline surprised economists, who had forecast an increase of 0.4 percent, and could influence Federal Reserve policy makers as they consider interest rates at their monthly meeting in August.

“Three-dollar gas really hits home,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates in St. Petersburg, Fla. “It seems gasoline expenditures are putting bigger pressure on household budgets.”

<snip>

“This retail sales number does suggest the economy is losing some of its momentum,” said Anthony Chan, chief economist for J. P. Morgan Private Client Services in New York.

“The effects of rising energy prices are starting to gain some traction on the consumer spending front, and, certainly, the effects of rising mortgage rates are starting to impact spending,” Mr. Chan said.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. Verizon layoffs under way

http://www.tulsaworld.com/BusinessStory.asp?ID=060715_Bu_E1_Veriz26566

Verizon Business, the telecommunications provider to business and government that was formed earlier this year, has begun layoffs in Tulsa and nationally as part of its goal of reducing its work force by nearly a quarter, officials said Friday.

A company spokeswoman declined to specify how many of the company's 1,600 employees at the Cherokee Industrial Park will be laid off.

"Today's reduction is part of the company's previously announced plan to reduce the Verizon Business work force by 7,000 over three years," said Verizon Business spokeswoman Stefanie Scott in Austin, Texas. "The reduction is coupled with certain structural and organizational changes that will improve the company's speed to market and cost structure."

<snip>

After its merger with MCI, Verizon inherited MCI's commitment to add jobs in Oklahoma or face more than $15 million in fines. MCI, in exchange for the dismissal of state felony fraud charges, agreed to create 1,600 new jobs in the state over 10 years.

After failing to create the new jobs during the past two years, Verizon has paid fines of $840,000 to the state.

...more at link...

[Ghost Dog]

21. Carlyle raises $1.8 bln for Asia; closes Taiwan buy

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060717:MTFH76275_2006-07-17_03-26-31_HKG264911&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Sun Jul 16, 2006 11:26pm ET

HONG KONG, July 17 (Reuters) - Washington-based private equity firm The Carlyle Group said it had raised $1.8 billion for its second Asia buyout fund, which will focus on investments in the region outside of Japan.

Carlyle, which recently raised $1.9 billion for a fund dedicated to buyouts in Japan, also said it had completed its investment in Eastern Multimedia Co., which is Taiwan's largest cable TV operator.

While Carlyle did not provide a figure, the deal is believed to value Eastern Multimedia at up to $1.5 billion.

Including its Japan fund, Carlyle has raised $4.8 billion for investments in Asia over the past year, helping to fuel a global boom in private equity-driven mergers and acquisitions.

During the first half of 2006, Asian private equity funds under management rose by nearly a quarter from a year earlier to $138.5 billion, researchers at the Asian Venture Capital Journal said last week.

[Ghost Dog]

22. Carlyle to hire global head of lobbying

www.ft.com/cms/s/117c4864-1501-11db-b391-0000779e2340.html
Published: July 16 2006 20:29 | Last updated: July 17 2006 05:19

Carlyle is, for the first time, to hire a global head of lobbying to help it tackle regulatory challenges, particularly in China.

The Washington-based private equity group said its decision to create the government relations position was a response to the fact that the intersection between public policy issues – from tax to regulatory matters – and its leveraged buy-out and real estate businesses was becoming more pronounced.

The rest of this article is for FT.com subscribers only...

[UpInArms]

25. Coors Chairman Charged With Driving Drunk

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/business/media/17addes.html?ex=1310788800&en=2f93f51b80729560&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Pete Coors, the chairman of the Coors Brewing Company and a former Republican candidate for the Senate, was arrested and charged with drunken driving in Golden, Colo., The Denver Post reported on Thursday. Mr. Coors, who has appeared in anti-drunken-driving messages for the company, is scheduled to appear in court on Thursday. “I made a mistake,” he said in a written statement. “I should have planned ahead for a ride.” The company’s Web site features a “Drunk Driving Prevention” page, which carries the reminder, “Coors wants drunk drivers off the road.”

[Ghost Dog]

26. Europe retreats as Mideast crisis grows

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/05250066-155f-11db-9950-0000779e2340.html
Last updated: July 17 2006 12:21GMT+1

After a mixed start, European equity markets moved lower by lunch-time on Monday, extending last week’s losses, as rapidly escalating violence in the Middle East and record oil prices weighed on investor sentiment.

Wall Street retreated on Friday after Nymex August West Texas Intermediate hit a record $78.40 a barrel before easing back to trade at $77.45. Traders think a move above $80 a barrel this week is likely as the crisis in the Middle Wast deteriorated over the weekend.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 6.1 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 1,271.47 while the German Dax lost 16.8 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 5,405.29 and the French CAC40 dropped 29.9 points, or 0.6 per cent to 4,749.71.

On Friday, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 fell 1.2 per cent to 1,277.53, for a weekly decline of 2.9 per cent, the worst weekly loss for six weeks.

/more...

[UpInArms]

29. Study Finds Backdating of Options Widespread

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/17/business/17options.html?ex=1310788800&en=e759d31a0a7b4415&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

More than 2,000 companies appear to have used backdated stock options to sweeten their top executives’ pay packages, according to a new study that suggests the practice is far more widespread than previously disclosed.

The new statistical analysis, which comes amid a broadening federal inquiry of the practice of timing options to the stock market, estimates that 29.2 percent of companies have used backdated options and 13.6 percent of options granted to top executives from 1996 to 2005 were backdated or otherwise manipulated.

So far, more than 60 companies have disclosed that they are the targets of government investigations, are the subject of investor lawsuits or have conducted internal audits involving the practice, in which options are backdated to days when the company’s shares trade at low prices. They include Apple Computer, CNet and Juniper Networks.

Last week, the United States attorney in San Francisco announced a task force to investigate the backdating of options, which appears to have been particularly popular in Silicon Valley during the 1990’s dot-com boom. The study found that the abuse was more prevalent in high-technology firms, where an estimated 32 percent of unscheduled grants were backdated; at other firms, an estimated 20 percent were backdated.

...more...

[UpInArms]

72. SEC action on options-backdating case coming soon, Cox says

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BFC350A7C%2DA1E6%2D460B%2D9AAE%2D6B961F8F5E92%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Federal securities regulators are getting ready to file charges in a case involving the backdating of stock options, the chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission said Monday. SEC Chairman Christopher Cox said the agency would have an announcement "very soon" about civil charges. Cox didn't name a company or provide a more specific date. Prosecutors and the SEC are probing several companies whose executives received options at low prices just before big jumps in company stock prices.

[54anickel]

31. Couple more days like Friday and the DOW will be right back where

it started when Chimpy moved in. Any reports this week that might give an excuse for a rally? Or will they have to go with the "oversold" mantra?

[spotbird]

56. Considering inflation

and the value of the dollar it is lower than on that horrible day.

[UpInArms]

32. Philips announces buyback as profit falls 69%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B54EEA64F%2D3B99%2D49AF%2DAB07%2D3A1412E09FFD%7D&symbol=

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Dutch conglomerate Philips Electronics on Monday said it was buying back $1.9 billion (1.5 billion euros) of its own shares after its quarterly profit tumbled 69%.

Philips Electronics (PHG : 28.28, -0.31, -1.1% ) (NL:00953: news, chart, profile) noted the profit slide, which brought its second-quarter income down to 301 million euros, was due to a year-ago sale of its 753 million-euro stake in digital mapmaker Navteq; otherwise, Philips said its profit would've improved 30%.

Its operating profit more than doubled to 367 million euros and sales rose 10% to 7.6 billion euros.

Philips' net income missed analyst forecasts while sales were above consensus.

...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Concurrent Computer warns of shortfall and lays off workers

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=8b3d671f-a817-4795-a816-397c0d74f746&siteid=mktw&dist=MorePulse

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Concurrent Computer Corp. (CCUR : 1.81, -0.18, -9.0% ) warned that fiscal fourth-quarter results would fall short of expectations due to weak sales and increasing pricing pressure in the video-on-demand market. The Atlanta computing technology company said it now expects a loss of 50 to 70 cents a share on revenue of $15 million to $17 million. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had been expecting a loss of 1 cent a share, on average. The company also said it laid off 7% of its employees as part of its plan to cut costs and return to profitability. The stock closed Friday down 18 cents at $1.81.

[54anickel]

35. G-8 agrees to subsidy cuts for WTO's success

http://inhome.rediff.com/money/2006/jul/17g8.htm

snip>

Regretting that the talks in Geneva failed early this month, the heads of government of US, UK, France, Japan, Canada, Italy, Russia and Germany said, "We commit ourselves to substantial improvement for market access in trade in both agriculture and industrial products and expanding opportunities in trade in services."

The WTO talks in Geneva collasped after the US stuck to its position and refused to move forward in cutting farm subsidies and desired by developing countries, including India.

"In agriculture we are committed to substantially reducing trade-distorting domestic support and to the parallel elimination by the end of 2013 of all forms of export subsidies a well as establishment of effective disciplines on all export measures with equivalent effect as agreed in Hong Kong," the statement said.

"We urge all parties to work with utmost urgency for conclusion of the round by 2006-end to strengthen multilateral trading system," it added.

Earlier at WTO talks at Geneva, while the European Union had agreed to match the cuts in import tariff for farm produts that developing countries led by India and Brazil had asked for, the US was reluctant to move on farm subsidies.

With the US adamant on the issue of subsidies, there was no negotiating space for developing countries, Commerce Minister Kamal Nath had said on his return from the collasped talks.

more...

Hmmmm, what's up with all of this? The US holds up the UN call for a cease fire in the ME (want the G8 to handle it - wtf?), the US holds up a G8 call for a cease fire, the US blocks Russia's entry to the WTO, and the WTO talks originally collapsed on the US refusing to give an inch. Wonder what's REALLY being negotiated at the G8 summit with an escalating ME war as a back drop? Cripes I hate being so cynical about my country and her intentions these days!

[54anickel]

36. Georgia's president warns Russia on WTO accession

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L17165860.htm

TBILISI, July 17 (Reuters) - Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili late on Sunday threatened to drop support for Russian entry to the World Trade Organisation at a time of high tension between the neighbours over a rebel Georgian province.

With Russia busy hosting the Group of Eight summit, there have been sharp exchanges about South Ossetia, which broke away from central Georgian rule in the early 1990s.

Russia has accused Georgia of preparing to go to war to reassert control.

Georgia's government on Friday informed the WTO and Russia that it would renew trade talks. It said Moscow was not fulfilling its obligations under an original May 2004 agreement, including closing border crossings with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, another breakaway region.

Russia has also banned imports of Georgian wine, mineral water and agricultural products, citing health reasons. Georgia said it was punishment for pro-Western policies.

more...

[54anickel]

40. G8 document shows splits on nuclear, climate issues

http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=businessNews&storyID=2006-07-16T111459Z_01_L16708040_RTRUKOC_0_US-GROUP-NUCLEAR-ENERGY.xml&pageNumber=0&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=NewsArt-C1-ArticlePage2

ST PETERSBURG, Russia (Reuters) - The Group of Eight industrial nations approved a statement on "Global Energy Security" on Sunday that acknowledges splits over nuclear energy and climate change among the world's top economies.

snip>

Critics, however, say there is no good solution for the storage of dangerous nuclear waste. They also say nuclear power plants are vulnerable to terrorist attacks and result in an increased risk of nuclear weapons proliferation.

The statement also backs plans suggested by Moscow to create international centers in Russia to produce nuclear fuel for countries with atomic power plants and a U.S. plan to create a multilateral nuclear fuel bank. All of these would be under the supervision of the U.N. nuclear watchdog.

"We intend to make additional joint efforts to ensure reliable access to low enriched uranium for power reactor fuel and spent fuel recycling," as part of the group's joint non-proliferation efforts, the text said.

snip>

SPLIT ON KYOTO PROTOCOL

more...

[UpInArms]

37. Treasuries prices edge up after manufacturing data

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-17T123804Z_01_NYG000283_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices briefly edged up on Monday after a weaker-than-expected manufacturing survey.

The New York Federal Reserve's "Empire State" manufacturing activity index fell to 15.64 in July, below economists' forecasts for 20.0.

Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> initially rose 1/32 in price for a yield of 5.07 percent, versus 5.07 percent late on Friday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.

[UpInArms]

43. Fed adds reserves through overnight system repos

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-17T133339Z_01_N17343001_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Monday it added temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.313 percent, above the Fed's 5.25 percent target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

That does not look good :eyes:

[Roland99]

68. It's that economy a growin'!

[UpInArms]

65. Printing Press ALERT: Fed buys bills, adding permanent reserves

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-17T150941Z_01_N17400309_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, July 17 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Monday it bought bills, adding permanent reserves to the banking system.

The Fed bought bills with maturities ranging from November 2, 2006 to January 11, 2007 for settlement on July 18.

There were no exclusions.


Earlier, the Fed added temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.313 percent, above the Fed's 5.25 percent target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

Monetizing the Debt :banghead:

[Roland99]

69. Link to permanent purchase

http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/pomo/display/index.cfm

[UpInArms]

39. Spectrum Brands cuts fiscal 2006 outlook

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=ce111f37-4a8a-4995-97d0-ecc6c36be243&siteid=mktw&dist=MorePulse

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Spectrum Brands Inc. (SPC : 10.70, -0.25, -2.3% ) on Monday cut its fiscal 2006 earnings outlook because of weak third-quarter battery sales in Europe and lower-than-expected North American results from shaving and grooming products at Father's Day. The Atlanta-based maker of Rayovac batteries and Remington electric razors said earnings will be below its May forecast of 90 cents to $1 a share. Despite the disappointing third-quarter results, Spectrum expects to be in compliance with its senior credit facility debt covenants for the third quarter. Additionally, the company has engaged Goldman Sachs & Co. (GS : 40.10, -2.45, -1.7% ) to explore the possible sale of assets.

[UpInArms]

66. Spectrum Brands cuts view again (3rd time in 3 months); shares plunge

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA7BCCA27%2DCFF5%2D453D%2DB237%2D0A10CCF05CB7%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares in Spectrum Brands Inc. lost more than a quarter of their value Monday after the maker of Rayovac batteries and Remington electric razors cut its earnings forecast for the third time in as many months.
Spectrum (SPC) , of Atlanta, also said it hired Goldman Sachs & Co.

(GS) to help with selective asset sales to reduce debt and improve the company's focus. Spectrum's businesses also include Garden Safe lawn and garden products, Cutter insect repellant and Tetra fish food.
Shares in Spectrum fell nearly 30% to $7.53 at one point in the session.

The company said weak third-quarter battery sales in Europe and lower-than-expected North American results from shaving and grooming products at Father's Day will cause fiscal 2006 earnings to fall below its May forecast of 90 cents to $1 a share. Analysts' average estimate stands at 95 cents a share, according to Thomson First Call.

...more...

[UpInArms]

41. pre-opening blather

09:17 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.8. Pre-market trading is now hovering near its best levels of the morning but still signal a lower open for the indices. Meanwhile, investors are sifting through the day's last piece of economic news. June Industrial Production rose 0.8% (consensus 0.4%) while Capacity Utilization checked in at 82.4% (consensus 81.9%), but investors remain more focused on tomorrow’s PPI data and Wednesday’s influential CPI figures to provide a clearer economic picture.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Stage remains set for stocks to start out the week on a negative note. Aside from unrest in the Middle East still acting as an overhang, investors are also waiting to get more clarity on the earnings front and are beginning to question the sustainability of double-digit earnings growth for a 12th consecutive quarter, especially after Citigroup's Q2 profits only grew 4%, as there are still legitimate concerns about downward guidance for the second half of the year.

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.0. Still shaping up for stocks to open on a downbeat note as futures indications continue to trade below fair value. However, McDonald's (MCD) recently reporting strong systemwide sales for June and a 1.0% pullback in oil prices, coupled with an analyst upgrade on Qualcomm (QCOM) and a positive mention about Apple Computer (AAPL) in Barron's are stemming some of the market's weakness. Separately, July NY Empire State Index checked in at lower than expected 15.6 (consensus 21.8), but the reaction in stocks and bonds so far has been muted.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures versus fair value suggest that last week's anxiety tied to escalating tensions in the Middle East and earnings uncertainty has carried over into this morning's action. Citigroup (C) and Harley-Davidson (HDI) are among the biggest names out with results so far during what is expected to be a very busy week of earnings; but with so many additional scheduled news items on the market's radar screen this week – CPI, PPI, Bernanke testimony and FOMC Minutes – investors are sticking close to the sidelines in anticipation of what could be a very volatile week.

[UpInArms]

42. 9:32 EST and it's all good!

Dow 10,754.48 +15.13 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq 2,041.70 +4.34 (+0.21%)
S&P 500 1,236.39 +0.19 (+0.02%)
10-Yr Bond 5.073 +0.014 (+0.28%)

NYSE Volume 57,686,000
Nasdaq Volume 50,800,000

(edit: grammar)

[stop the bleeding]

44. getting near 10800 - market must feel that the selling was overdone

from last week.

[UpInArms]

46. 9:40 EST The markets love wars and death (updated blather)

Dow 10,792.98 +53.63 (+0.50%)
Nasdaq 2,049.13 +11.77 (+0.58%)
S&P 500 1,239.13 +2.93 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 5.083 +0.024 (+0.47%)

NYSE Volume 113,122,000
Nasdaq Volume 98,420,000

09:40 am : Stocks open with little fanfare as investors returning from a nervous weekend initially weigh concerns about oil prices at record levels amid growing concerns in the Middle East against the first big day of Q2 earnings. Citigroup (C 46.86 -0.72) had kicked things off with a paltry 4% year/year rise in Q2 profits that merely questioned the sustainability of double-digit earnings growth for a 12th straight quarter. Fortunately for the bulls looking to jump back into a market that is showing signs of oversold conditions, a pullback in crude prices and McDonald's (MCD 34.17 +1.13) reporting better than expected preliminary Q2 earnings on the heels of strong June systemwide sales are now providing a floor of support for equities.DJ30 +53.47 NASDAQ +13.05 SP500 +2.86 NASDAQ Vol 90 mln NYSE Vol 76 mln

I guess the markets are going to ignore the July New York Empire evidence and pay attention to the OLD June number - reality has no place in this insanity. It also looks at the JUNE McD's numbers - and doesn't care that spending is falling because of the high costs of gasoline - fewer people will be eating out - especially if they have to drive to get there. :eyes:

[stop the bleeding]

47. something tells me, we'll stay below 10850 today

:freak:

[UpInArms]

49. 10:05 EST numbers and blather

Dow 10,766.02 +26.67 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,038.15 +0.79 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,237.59 +1.39 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 5.091 +0.032 (+0.63%)

NYSE Volume 293,131,000
Nasdaq Volume 222,926,000

10:00 am : Major averages are off their morning highs but seven out of 10 sectors are still trading higher. Providing the bulk of early support is Technology, benefiting largely from an analyst upgrade on Qualcomm (QCOM 37.01 +0.64) and a positive mention about Apple Computer (AAPL 51.86 +1.19) in Barron's. Consumer Discretionary is also providing some notable leadership, fueled by the strong report from McDonald's, retailers rebounding amid consolidation in crude and shares of Mattel (MAT 17.47 +1.59) soaring 10% after it returned to profitability in Q2. The absence of leadership from the Financials sector following Citigroup's disappointment and rising bond yields, though, continues to stall more aggressive efforts to recoup some of last week's broad-based losses. DJ30 +30.71 NASDAQ +3.29 SP500 +1.93 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1160/1315/210 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1203/1510/178 mln

[spinbaby]

50. Oil Prices Drop on Iran Report

LONDON (AP) -- Crude oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel Monday on rumors of moves toward peace in the Middle East and in Iran's nuclear standoff with Western nations.
Prices dropped abruptly just before noon in London following talk of progress on Iran, and an optimistic report from Israel.

"Basically, there was a report out from a high-ranking Israeli official who allegedly said they were nearing the end of the offensive," said Paul J. Harris, an analyst for Bank of Ireland Global Markets in Dublin.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060717/oil_prices.html?.v=10

[UpInArms]

51. Abramoff Lobbying of White House Probed

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/14/AR2006071401365.html

The House Government Reform Committee has subpoenaed the former law firm of convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff for records of any contacts he or members of his lobbying team had with the Bush White House.

Chairman Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) authorized a subpoena weeks ago to Greenberg Traurig, according to several of the law firm's former clients who have been notified that it is turning over billing records, e-mails, phone logs and other material that reflects efforts to lobby the White House.

<snip>

Abramoff, a major fundraiser for George W. Bush in the 2000 election, had a half-dozen appointments at the White House in the early months of the administration, according to logs released this month by the U.S. Secret Service. Some were social events, others were group events involving tribal officials. On one occasion, Abramoff unsuccessfully sought presidential adviser Karl Rove's assistance in placing associates at the Interior Department.

<snip>

Because of that panel's limited jurisdiction, the committee largely steered clear of examining Abramoff's dealings with the White House and Congress, although it spotlighted his lobbying team's contacts with Rep. Robert W. Ney (R-Ohio) on behalf of a Texas tribe.

...more...

[Recursion]

53. My bet: late this week, Dow crosses 10,000

Any takers?

(edit typo -- which is sad considering the original message had only 2 words)

[UpInArms]

54. 10:30 EST no longer good at all - did someone buy a clue?

Dow 10,731.51 -7.84 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,033.14 -4.21 (-0.21%)
S&P 500 1,233.79 -2.41 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 5.083 +0.024 (+0.47%)

NYSE Volume 464,790,000
Nasdaq Volume 349,268,000

[stop the bleeding]

55. 10700 is the magic number beyond

that - whooosh !!!

[harlinchi]

58. What's up with the NYTimes Dow Jones ticker?

http://marketwatch.nytimes.com/custom/nyt-com/html-usmarkets-quote.asp?sid=1643&time=1dy&x=37&y=9

It occasionally has problems but today's appears to remain out-of-sync. The graph has nothing to do with the numbers!

[Roland99]

61. 11:29am - Back to good

DJIA 10,754.40 +15.05 +0.14%
Nasdaq 2,037.46 +0.11 +0.01%
S&P 500 1,235.41 -0.79 -0.06%
Dow Util 419.96 +1.84 +0.44%
NYSE 7,896.97 -53.10 -0.67%
AMEX 1,873.11 -22.16 -1.17%
Russell 2000 678.41 -2.83 -0.42%
Semcond 408.64 -0.37 -0.09%
Gold future 649.50 -18.50 -2.77%
30-Year Bond 5.12% +0.01 +0.10%
10-Year Bond 5.08% +0.02 +0.36%

[wordpix2]

62. 12:16 and mixed messages

Dow 10,750.08 +10.73
Nasdaq 2,037.26 -0.09
S&P 1,235.50 -0.70
10-Yr Note 100.34 -0.09

12:16 PM ET.

[UpInArms]

63. a side of blather

12:00 pm : The indices are posting modest gains midday as plunging oil prices and a sense that stocks are oversold helps some investors deal with escalating tensions in the Middle East and continued nervousness with regard to corporate profits, which is typical very early in the earnings season until an assessment on trends and guidance is possible.

To wit, there are still at least 110 more SnP constituents (10 of which are Dow components) scheduled this week that will offer further evidence on the pace of Q2 profit growth. Also preventing bargain hunters from stepping in more aggressively to recoup some of last week's broad-based losses are some influential economic reports (e.g. PPI, CPI) and testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke, all of which should provide some clarity about whether or not policy makers will raise rates again on August 8.

Sector leadership is currently mixed. Technology is providing some support, benefiting largely from an analyst upgrade on Qualcomm (QCOM 36.93 +0.56) and a positive mention about Apple Computer (AAPL 52.85 +2.18) in Barron's. Consumer Discretionary is also providing some notable leadership after McDonald's (MCD 34.35 +1.31) reported better than expected preliminary Q2 earnings on the heels of strong June systemwide sales.

The absence of leadership from Energy and Materials, two sectors again expected to contribute significantly to aggregate earnings growth on the SnP 500, as well modest weakness in the Financials sector following Citigroup's (C 46.55 -1.03) lackluster Q2 report, are also keeping early recovery efforts in check. DJ30 +23.60 NASDAQ +2.88 SP500 +0.25 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1692/1144/754 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1847/1239/634 mln

11:30 am : Market continues to vacillate around the unchanged mark as buying interest remains scarce across the board. The Dow is clinging to a small advance but the 4% surge in McDonald's (MCD 34.37 +1.33), as well as solid gains of at least 1.0% from BA, GM, HPQ, JNJ, and MSFT, are barely enough to offset the 2.5% decline in Citigroup (C 46.40 -1.18), which is the third most influential of all 500 SnP constituents. DJ30 +10.25 NASDAQ -1.08 SP500 -1.58 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1590/1228/638 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1723/1312/534 mln

[Roland99]

64. Markets seem timid. All on the plus side but virtually unchanged.

[UpInArms]

67. market statistics (advancers, decliners, etc)

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NYSE VOLUME 765.6M

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NASDAQ VOLUME 898.9M

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NYSE HAS 1,338 ADVANCERS

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NYSE HAS 1,802 DECLINERS

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NYSE HAS 152 ISSUES UNCHANGED

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NASDAQ HAS 1,150 GAINERS

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NASDAQ HAS 1,732 LOSERS

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NASDAQ HAS 148 ISSUES UNCHANGED

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NYSE HAS 19 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NYSE HAS 136 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NASDAQ HAS 13 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK HIGHS

1:00 PM ET 7/17/06 NASDAQ HAS 89 ISSUES SETTING 52-WEEK LOWS

[Roland99]

70. I do believe I count on one hand the # of times that Adv led Dec

in the last month, or more.

[54anickel]

71. Check the 1:00 blather - someone is fighting another down day. We will

not have another down day - damnit!!!!

1:00 pm : Market is still clinging to small gains but market breadth continues to signal a negative underlying tone. As reflected in the A/D line, decliners on the NYSE hold an 18-to-13 advantage over advancers while those on the Nasdaq hold a 17-to-11 edge. A split ratio of up to down volumes at the Big Board and the Composite also adds to the lack of conviction behind today's modest recovery effort. DJ30 +19.05 NASDAQ +2.43 SP500 +0.24 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1740/1134/894 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1806/1361/766 mln

12:30 pm : Not much has changed since the last update as the afternoon session gets underway. The greenback strengthening to a three-month high against the yen and gaining against the euro amid more safe-haven buying attributed to uncertainty in the Middle East continues to diminish the desire to own stocks tied to dollar-denominated commodities. To wit, Diversified Metals (-3.3%), Steel (-3.1%) and Drillers (-2.4%) are among the five worst performing SnP industry groups. DJ30 +21.14 NASDAQ +3.03 SP500 0.44 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1713/1113/828 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1817/1285/706 mln


1:14 numbers:
Dow 10,752.96 +13.61 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,038.68 +1.33 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,235.53 -0.67 (-0.05%)
10-yr Bond 5.079 +0.02 (+0.40%)
30-yr Bond 5.119 +0.008 (+0.16%)
NYSE Volume 1,213,824,000
Nasdaq Volume 910,194,000

[UpInArms]

73. 1:19 EST Jumping and Jivin'

Dow 10,766.81 +27.46 (+0.26%)
Nasdaq 2,040.87 +3.51 (+0.17%)
S&P 500 1,237.00 +0.80 (+0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 5.077 +0.018 (+0.36%)

NYSE Volume 1,239,360,000
Nasdaq Volume 930,045,000

Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain! :eyes:

[UpInArms]

74. a sampling of 52-week lows:

1:07 PM ET 7/17/06 AIG SHARES SET 52-WEEK LOW OF $57.52

1:08 PM ET 7/17/06 TOLL BROS' SHARES SET 52-WEEK LOW OF $23.30

1:06 PM ET 7/17/06 SPECTRUM BRANDS' SHARES SET 52-WEEK LOW OF $7.53

1:07 PM ET 7/17/06 IBM SHARES SET 52-WEEK LOW OF $73.20

1:05 PM ET 7/17/06 LUCENT TECH SHARES SET 52-WEEK LOW OF $2.01

1:05 PM ET 7/17/06 TIME WARNER SHARES SET 52-WEEK LOW OF $15.70

[ProgressiveEconomist]

95. Kick

[Ghost Dog]

76. Halliburton's Fleecing Ends -- Or Does It?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_carlson&sid=aWq.XoaVqS4U
: Margaret Carlson

July 17 (Bloomberg) -- I wonder how many customers McDonald's Corp. would keep if instead of including a Coke with a Happy Meal, as the menu promised, the company charged for it twice.

That's what Halliburton Co. did to Uncle Sam, billing $45 for soda by the case and billing for it again when served by the glass at meals.

It's all part of the cost-plus, no-bid life of Halliburton and its subsidiary, Kellogg, Brown & Root, the sole source of just about everything the U.S. Army needs to supply troops in Iraq. For three years, the U.S. government kept paying double for soda and many other things with nary a complaint.

But last week, all that ground to a screeching halt when the Pentagon announced the end of no-bid contracts -- or did it?

Not really. That's like saying to the outlaw Jesse James, ``We'll no longer hand over the money. You have to ask nicely.''

/good read...

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

77. Chimp's stock market will not go negative!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

78. $77.03.

Hoover!

[Roland99]

79. S&P is 0.1% negative. DJIA and NASDAQ are a whopping 0.1% positive.

[stop the bleeding]

80. 10741 - can't hold on, much longer

aaarrggghhh - finger nails slipping

[stop the bleeding]

81. back into the red -

folks it's a walkoff -zoolander

[ozymandius]

91. eat me

Oh shut the fuck up dick head

[mojavekid]

93. Whoa,! no doubt someone got a hold of Ozy's keyboard!!!

-or I missed something...

[54anickel]

94. Heh-heh, I just caught that too. Was wondering the same thing...Ozy

tends to not use the "f" word very often - unless referring to Dimson and his minion and even then it's a rare occassion.

He has stated he's been pretty busy at work these days. Perhaps he's snapped. :evilgrin:

[mojavekid]

96. Hiya 54!

Yeah it was WAY out of character! I come to the Stock Market Watch every day because it's a "Safe haven" :tinfoilhat: and the place to get the skinny.

Was pretty funny, though I can understand Ozy's fury.


-mojavekid

[UpInArms]

82. msystems(TM) Restates Financial Results to Reduce Net Income 1999 to 2005

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B849C2A08%2DC730%2D42A8%2D9A88%2D65AB730685D0%7D&siteid=mktw&sid=10091&symb=

KFAR SABA, Israel, Jul 17, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- msystems (FLSH) , a leader in smart personal storage, today announced that it has filed its Annual Report on
Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2005 (the "Annual Report") with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the "SEC").

Further to the self-initiated internal review of prior stock option grants announced by the Company on June 1, 2006 and the appointment of a special committee (the "Special Committee") comprised of external members of its Board of Directors, the Company today announced that the Special Committee completed its review and found that there were a variety of deficiencies and irregularities in the Company's policies, procedures, practices, controls and documentation related to the Company's granting of stock options during 1999 to 2003. For detailed description of the Special Committee's findings, see the Company's Annual Report on Form 20-F.
Based on the Special Committee's findings, the Company has concluded that, for accounting purposes, the actual measurements dates for certain past option grants differ from previously determined measurements dates for such grants. Because the closing market prices of the Company's shares as of the corrected measurement dates were generally higher than the relevant option exercise prices, the Company has determined that it should have recognized primarily non-cash stock-based compensation expense. Accordingly, the Company has restated its consolidated financial information for the years ended December 31, 1999 through 2005 and intends to revise its consolidated financial information for the quarter ended March 31, 2006 to reflect these charges.

The impact of these charges reduced the Company's previously reported net income for the entire period between 1999 and 2005 by an aggregate of $18.8 million. The impact of these charges on net income for the full year of 2006 is estimated to be less than $2 million, of which approximately $1.4 million relates to the first quarter of 2006. The tables following at the end of this release reconcile the Company's previously reported net income (loss) with the Company's restated net income (loss) for years ended December 31, 1999 through 2005. Within the next few weeks, the Company intends to furnish to the SEC on Form 6-K the revised financial information reflecting the charges for the individual quarters ending March 31, 2005 through March 31, 2006.

...more...

[UpInArms]

85. M-Systems restates results on stock-option irregularities

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5E56B957%2D314B%2D4BAF%2DB55F%2D80C1E24F5236%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- M-Systems Flash Disk Pioneers Ltd. (FLSH :















25.90, +0.77, +3.1% ) on
Monday said a special board committee has found a variety of irregularities in the company's practices related to stock-option grants from 1999 to 2003. Therefore, the company has restated its financial results for 1999 through 2005, and plans to revise results for the March 2006 quarter to reflect charges. The Israeli flash-memory developer should have recognized primarily non-cash stock-based compensation expense because the closing market prices of the company's shares as of the corrected measurement dates were generally higher than the relevant option exercise prices. The impact reduces net income between 1999 and 2005 by an aggregate of $18 million, according to M-Systems, with the impact on 2006's net income estimated to be less than $2 million, with $1.4 in the first quarter. M-Systems' board is implementing remedial measures such as: appointing a governance and compensation committee comprising independent directors to oversee stock-option grants; and separating the positions of president and chief executive and the position of chairman so that they are held by two separate people. Further, M-Systems is recruiting a chief financial officer with a formal accounting background, and the current CFO will become the chief operating officer.

[UpInArms]

83. 3:38 EST heading for the close - waffling in and out of the red

Dow 10,741.03 +1.68 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 2,034.39 -2.96 (-0.15%)
S&P 500 1,233.29 -2.91 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 5.069 +0.01 (+0.20%)

NYSE Volume 1,863,074,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,324,750,000

3:30 pm : Stocks break out of their range going into the close as an underlying sense of nervousness becomes a bit more cautious. McDonald's (MCD 34.85 +1.81) continues to be the standout among blue chip gainers while Johnson and Johnson (JNJ 61.11 +0.65), which reports earnings tomorrow morning, is also helping the Dow cling to a small 0.1% gain. Renewed weakness in chip stocks, as 13 of the 19 components on the PHLX Semi Sector Index are posting losses, is now preventing the tech-heavy Nasdaq from potentially paring some of its 7.6% year-to-date decline. DJ30 +2.73 NASDAQ -0.84 SOX -0.5% SP500 -2.14 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1881/1098/1.29 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1931/1312/1.21 bln

3:00 pm : The indices now trade in split fashion again but continue to trade in relatively tight ranges. With the Dow losing 395 points over the last three days of trading and the Nasdaq off 4.4% last week, it hasn't been all that surprising to see somewhat of a bounce. Crude closing down 2.3% below $76 per barrel has also provided some relief, but with key inflation data on the horizon and Fed Chairman Bernanke updating Congress about the economy and monetary policy, limited participation suggests investors are positioning themselves for a volatile week of trading. DJ30 +18.17 NASDAQ +2.85 SP500 -1.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1741/1221/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1776/1455/1.08 bln

2:30 pm : Range-bound trading persists as all three major averages are still finding modest support above the flat line. The Russell 2000 Index, however, continues to struggle since higher rates greatly impact the borrowing power of growth stocks. The S&P 400 MidCap Index, which has outrperformed both the large and small cap indices for several years, is faring even worse; but losses are modest at best. DJ30 +24.52 NASDAQ +4.98 R2K -0.2% SP400 -0.4% SP500 +0.34 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1724/1212/1.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1741/1482/1.0 bln

[UpInArms]

84. 3:45 EST and we have Happy Feet!

Dow 10,765.85 +26.50 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 2,039.38 +2.02 (+0.10%)
S&P 500 1,236.16 -0.04 (-0.00%)
10-Yr Bond 5.069 +0.01 (+0.20%)

NYSE Volume 1,925,248,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,370,181,000

[Roland99]

86. Oil's dropped a whole dollar (or so)! I can rush out and buy a new house!!

[wordpix2]

88. I'm holding out for next generation Toyotas at 300 mpg

[54anickel]

87. US says gold revaluation not option in IMF funding

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-17T183021Z_01_N17320329_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-USA-IMF-GOLD-INTERVIEW-UPDATE-1.XML

WASHINGTON, July 17 (Reuters) - Revaluing International Monetary Fund gold reserves to shore up its financing to make up for reduced demand for emergency loans is not appropriate, U.S. Treasury Under Secretary Tim Adams said on Monday.

"We, the U.S., do not think that gold is an appropriate option. For us, it is not an option," Adams told Reuters in an interview.

Robust global economic growth in the past years and booming private capital flows to emerging markets have cut demand for IMF emergency loans. Top borrowers like Brazil and Argentina have paid off existing IMF loans ahead of schedule.

As a result, the Washington-based multilateral lender decided to freeze spending levels in 2007 and cut them back by 1 percent in both 2008 and 2009.

The IMF is actively reviewing its financing options and has convened an "Eminent Persons" group, which includes European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet and former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, to provide advice on alternative sources of income for the fund.

more....

[54anickel]

89. Trouble Brewing

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/vaneeden/vaneeden071706.html

Gold's 5% increase last week was generally attributed to escalating tension in the Middle East yet at the same time the Gold Fields Mineral Services (GFMS) Base Metal Index rose 7.8%. Base metals should not respond positively to war since wars destroy capital and cause misallocation of available capital, both of which in the end are detrimental to economic growth and prosperity. What gold and base metals are doing is signaling weakness in paper money. Gold is a monetary asset and protects its owners against the devaluations of fiat currencies only, and massive amounts of institutional money have been allocated to hard assets as a hedge against a decline in the dollar.

Between January and May this year the GFMS Base Metal Index rose 51% and gold rose 38% as institutional investors lay big bets that the US dollar is going to tumble. Those bets were placed on the premise of Japan ending its policies of quantitative easing and zero interest rates, which have been widely expected for almost a year now. With the Bank of Japan's new policy of transparency, the changes were announced well in advance of taking effect.

What is busy happening in Japan is far more important to the price of gold, the value of your house, interest rates, your job, and the value of the money in your bank account than what is happening in the Middle East.

Don't get me wrong; I am not downplaying the current Middle East violence. Personally I believe that the Third World War has already begun and that our lives are going to change dramatically over the course of the next several years as the War spreads and gains momentum. For starters you can expect further confiscation of your personal liberties, whatever is left of them.

This commentary, however, is not about liberty or war; it is about markets, money and gold. During previous wars and skirmishes the gold price seldom responded positively for very long. Any rally in the gold price due to conflict was usually (very) short-lived. So if the current rally in the gold price is merely due to Israel and Lebanon bombing each other, and fear that the violence will spread, then we should all sell into the rally for it will soon end.

more...

[54anickel]

90. OT - The danger of an unequal struggle

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HG15Ak01.html

Reading the headline of Beirut's Daily Star of July 13, "Lebanon Under Attack", one is reminded of another military campaign, the US invasion of Iraq. The chief similarity between the two was the tremendous power asymmetry that existed between the US and Iraq then - and between Israel and Lebanon now.

Lebanon's "crime", according to Israel, is that it cannot control Hezbollah, an organization that has sowed ample fear in the minds of the Israeli leadership through its military skirmishes with the powerful defense forces of the Jewish state during its occupation of a portion of southern Lebanon in the 1990s.

Israel is also involved in a "war" against the Palestinian nation. The enormous power asymmetry of that situation is also equally apparent. We know well where the asymmetric war between the US is heading: an unmitigated disaster in Iraq. The question now is where will the asymmetric war between Israel and the Arabs (Palestinians and Lebanese) lead? It seems like another disaster in the making.

Israel and the Palestinian nation are at war. Hamas refuses to recognize Israel and negotiate with it. The recent escalation is the decision of Hamas' military wing to kidnap and hold an Israeli soldier. Its demand is a prisoner exchange, which Israel rejects as a terrorist demand, a tactic they learned from Hezbollah.

But even before that, Israel was determined to do everything to make the demise of the democratically elected Hamas government a reality. The United States fully supports Israel in that objective. President George W Bush and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert are finding out that democracy, when it comes to any Middle Eastern country, is not likely to be friendly toward either of them.

In the post-September 11, 2001 era, using military prowess to cow and pacify Arab defiance and anger has become a common tool of the US and Israel. That has emerged as the first rule of that era. Bush spelled that out in his doctrine of preemption and regime-change even before he invaded Iraq. The military campaign in Iraq was driven by the desire to create "shock and awe", which was aimed at nipping in the bud any aspirations of the Iraqi military to confront or defy the American forces through the use of overwhelming power.

However, the Arab world - or Muslim world, to be precise, because the same thing is also happening in Afghanistan - like the US, is operating under a different rule of the post-September 11 era. This is the second rule of that era. It states that the use of awe-inspiring power begets equally devastating confrontation and resistance.

One side fights with awesome high-tech weapons; while the other side fights with whatever it can get its hands on. The Iraqis (and now the Afghans) did not invent the art of asymmetric warfare, but they seem to be writing a new chapter. In the process, Iraq and Afghanistan are steadily sliding toward mayhem. The "victor" in this war will be the one that has the political capability and resolve to outlast the other side.

more...

[54anickel]

92. Closing numbers and blather for the record

Dow 10,747.36 +8.01 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,037.72 +0.37 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 1,234.49 -1.71 (-0.14%)
10-yr Bond 5.069 +0.01 (+0.20%)
30-yr Bond 5.104 -0.007 (-0.14%)
NYSE Volume 2,232,454,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,571,222,000

4:20 pm : The major indices closed mixed as some relief from plunging oil prices helped stocks snap their worst three-day losing streak in over a year and divert some attention from the ongoing unrest in the Middle East. In fact, with the Dow down 395 points over the previous three sessions and the Nasdaq off 4.4% last week alone, it wasn't all that surprising to see somewhat of a bounce.

Be that as it may, with so many additional news items on the market's radar screen this week -- from key inflation data (e.g. PPI and CPI) to Fed Chairman Bernanke updating Congress about monetary policy to a plethora of more earnings reports to provide further evidence on the pace of Q2 profit growth -- investors stuck relatively close to the sidelines in anticipation of what should be a very volatile week.

The most notable name posting quarterly results Monday was Citigroup (C 46.40 -1.18). However, as the third most influential of all 500 SnP constituents, the bellwether growing Q2 profits a paltry 4% questioned the sustainability of double-digit earnings growth for a 12th straight quarter and prevented the Financials sector from offering anything in the way of leadership heading into a plethora of reports from banks and brokers tomorrow.

Among the seven economic sectors trading higher, Consumer Discretionary provided some notable leadership after McDonald's (MCD 34.72 +1.68) reported better-than-expected preliminary Q2 earnings on the heels of strong June systemwide sales. Harley-Davidson (HDI 52.31 +0.94) reiterating its full-year profit outlook, and Mattel (MAT 17.60 +1.72) returning to profitability in Q2, were additional sources of sector support. Technology also lent some support amid a 3.2% surge in Apple Computer (AAPL 52.37 +1.70), which was mentioned positively in Barron's over the weekend.

The absence of leadership from Energy and Materials, two sectors again expected to contribute significantly to aggregate earnings growth on the SnP 500, also prevented investors from more aggressively recouping some of last week's broad-based losses. The greenback strengthening to a three-month high against the yen, and gaining against the euro amid more safe-haven buying attributed to uncertainty in the Middle East, diminished the desire to own stocks tied to dollar-denominated commodities. Huh?:wtf: :shrug: Crude oil futures closed down 2.3% at $75.30 per barrel as gains in each of the past four days that led to new all-time highs prompted traders to lock in some of their profits. DJ30 +8.01 NASDAQ +0.37 SP500 -1.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1899/1112/1.55 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1917/1348/1.41 bln