STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 18 July

[ozymandius]

Tuesday July 18, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 918 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2033 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1733 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1694
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 17, 2006

Dow... 10,747.36 +8.01 (+0.07%)
Nasdaq... 2,037.72 +0.37 (+0.02%)
S&P 500... 1,234.49 -1.71 (-0.14%)
Gold future... 651.90 -16.10 (-2.47%)
30-Year Bond 5.10% -0.01 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.07% +0.01 (+0.20%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. a cautionary word re: 'eat me'

Yesterday someone used my keyboard to deliver an insult on this thread. (I have a pretty good idea who did this.) My DU settings at work automatically log me in upon my return to this message board. My computer at work is occasionally borrowed, though its primary assignment is to me.

This profane occurrence seems to be rare - often involving trolls. However, it is infuriating for this insult to be delivered using my name and login.

To guard against future offenses, my automatic DU login will be disabled when I return to work today. If you find yourself in a similar situation you might consider doing the same. I apologize for that offense.

Ozymandius

[Maeve]

6. I missed that, but not to worry

I see that the instant reaction was "someone got to Ozy's keyboard"--we know you, buddy! :loveya:

And to the perpetrator, should you read this--take your own advice because you are the one it applies to. Idjit. :nuke:

[rfranklin]

7. We took it as a loving "eat me..."

it's all in the family.

[UpInArms]

9. it was so out of character that no one believed it was you

:grouphug:

We do know you too well, Ozy - don't give it another thought.

[niallmac]

11. Frustrating as it is I peruse DU at work w/o signing in.

I figure it's just safer that way. My opinions are not
consistent with 90+ percent of those I co exist with.

[stop the bleeding]

23. I was the lucky winner :)

After 4pm yesterday, I was away from the computer until now.

I had no idea that this went on.

No harm done.

I am very greatful for the information that everyone provides here. :hi:

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

109. Animal House nt

[DemsRBetterLovers]

115. Seems like a running theme

Awhile back I had a pretty nice account. Even donated some money to the DU cause (almost $100 if I remember correctly). This was all for nothing, however. A girl I was dating at the time was a member of the campus repugs at my school (flame away) and her fellow organization members didnt think to highly of my dating habits. But hey, its not my fault democrats make better lovers.

They decided to use my name to make some inflamitory remarks. BOOM! I get a notification that my account has been barred. Tried to appeal, but nothing happened. Dropped off the screen for awhile, but now I'm back with OrangeCountyDem here. This isnt the land of Reagan and Nixon anymore!

[Ghost Dog]

119. Welcome back, Bro. n/t

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

122. Glad To Have You In The OC

I've dated a couple of right-wing lassies here in Orange County. One of them "borrowed" a significant amount of $$$ from me, with no intentions of ever paying it back. It amazes me the lack of ethics these conservative Assholes have, even though they talk a good game.

Sorry you're not female. I'd like to meet a cute, single, 20/30 something liberal chick down here, but they're hard to come by.

[ozymandius]

2. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

GEO POLITICS TAKES CENTER STAGE

This past week has seen a convergence of events like no other in recent memory. As if the merciless malaise in Iraq was not enough, armed conflict has now expanded its bloody bounds once again in the Middle East with new actions being undertaken against Israel as well as resulting reprisals against Lebanon. Additionally, a defiant North Korea is now subject to a new round of U.N. Security Council Resolutions.

Against this backdrop, we awakened Monday morning to see two of the most strategic of all commodities – crude oil and gold – along with the U.S. Dollar, displayed “stunning” price reversals and pick up incredulous momentum to the down side.

As this dyslexic Reuters account tried (and failed miserably) to sum things up today,

TORONTO, July 17 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar fell against the U.S. currency on Monday as the greenback benefited from a move to safe havens as the tensions in the Middle East escalated.

-cut-

Who would have ever thought Reuters could produce such compelling fiction?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Today's Reports

8:30 AM Core PPI Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.3%

8:30 AM PPI Jun
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.2%

9:00 AM Net Foreign Purchases May
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior $46.7B

[UpInArms]

21. 8:30 Reports:

8:30 AM ET 7/18/06 U.S. CORE INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 7.3% Y-O-Y, 15-MONTH HIGH

8:30 AM ET 7/18/06 U.S. PPI UP 4.9% IN PAST YEAR

8:30 AM ET 7/18/06 U.S. CORE PPI UP 1.9% IN PAST YEAR, MOST SINCE SEPT.

8:30 AM ET 7/18/06 U.S. JUNE CRUDE PPI DOWN 1.7%

8:30 AM ET 7/18/06 U.S. JUNE INTERMEDIATE PPI UP 0.7%

8:30 AM ET 7/18/06 U.S. JUNE CORE PPI UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 7/18/06 U.S. JUNE PPI UP 0.5% VS. 0.2% EXPECTED

[UpInArms]

22. U.S. June PPI up 0.5%, core PPI up 0.2%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2A2F6C91%2DAFB3%2D48AE%2D8B8E%2D775538887BFE%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. producer prices rose by a larger-than-expected 0.5% in June, but core inflation increased 0.2% as expected, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Higher energy and food prices accounted for most of the gain in June in the producer price index for finished goods. Energy prices rose 0.7% in June. Food prices rose 1.4%, the most since October 2004. Prices of crude materials fell 1.7%, while intermediate goods prices rose 0.7%. Core intermediate goods prices rose 0.8%. The 0.5% gain in the PPI was much larger than the 0.2% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The core rate was exactly as predicted.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B07C2A5DB%2DA92E%2D4265%2DA5A1%2D79E8446CF769%7D&symbol=

excerpt:

Higher energy and food prices accounted for most of the gain in June in the producer price index for finished goods.

Energy prices rose 0.7% in June, as wholesale gasoline prices jumped a surprising 6.3%. Natural gas and residential electricity prices fell. Food prices rose 1.4%, the most since October 2004.

The core rate - which excludes food and energy prices - was boosted by a 0.9 increase in passenger car prices and a solid 0.3% gain in capital goods prices.

<snip>

Prices for core intermediate goods - a key gauge of pipeline inflationary pressures - have risen 7.3% in the past year, the most in 15 months.

...more...

[Roland99]

56. Let's ignore the basics for the middle/low income Americans.

Just ignore that more and more of their takehome pay is going to cover essentials to live.


LET'S BUY SOME STOCKS AND CELEBRATE!!!

[UpInArms]

41. U.S. May capital flows @ $69.6 billion - Foreign Banks were Net Sellers

9:00 AM ET 7/18/06 CHINESE INVESTORS HELD $326.1 BILLION IN TREASURYS IN MAY

9:00 AM ET 7/18/06 U.S. APRIL CAPITAL FLOWS REVISED UPWARD TO $51.1 BILLION

9:00 AM ET 7/18/06 U.S. MAY CAPITAL FLOWS CLIMB TO $69.6 BILLION

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF10D5C61%2D2158%2D412E%2D8752%2D36DB28288D1D%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Capital flows into the United States bounced back in May, to nearly $70 billion, as private overseas investors scooped up large amounts of Treasury bonds and government agency bonds. Capital flows reached $69.6 billion in May, compared to a revised $51.1 billion in April, the Treasury Department said. Private investors led the increase by buying $27.5 billion in Treasury bonds and notes and $34.1 billion in corporate bonds. They also purchased $27.1 billion in government agency bonds, the Treasury data show. Foreign central banks sold $14.3 billion in Treasury bonds and notes but bought more government agency bonds and corporate bonds.

[UpInArms]

45. RPT-US May capital inflows rise to $69.6 bln

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-18T130952Z_01_WAT006051_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-CAPITAL-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - Net inflows of capital into the United States rose to a larger-than-expected $69.6 billion in May, enough to cover the nation's trade deficit in that month, a Treasury Department report showed on Tuesday.

Analysts were expecting net capital flows of $60 billion. The U.S. trade deficit was $63.8 billion in May as oil prices posted big increases.

Official sources were net sellers of $1.4 billion in U.S. assets in May. Official sources were net sellers of $14.3 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds and notes in the month, the largest outflow since August 1998.

[54anickel]

58. Huh? They are "trading in" Treasuries for GSEs and corporate bonds?

GSEs as in Fannie and Freddie? Corporate bonds? Wonder if they are of the junk variety? What's the BIS been up to behind the scenes these days anyway? Wonder whazzup? :freak:

[ozymandius]

4. Oil prices rebound amid anxiety in Mideast

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rebounded Tuesday after a steep fall the previous day as continued fighting in the Mideast added jitters to a market already edgy about tight supplies.

Escalating fighting between Israel and militants in Lebanon has no direct effect on oil supplies, but it has sparked worries that Iran, a financial backer of Hezbollah and OPEC's No. 2 supplier, could be drawn into the conflict.

The developments come on top of persistent market anxieties about the West's nuclear standoff with Iran, threats of supply disruptions in Nigeria and the Gulf of Mexico hurricane season.

Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose 50 cents to $75.80 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange as of mid-afternoon in Singapore.

more

[ozymandius]

5. Is Oil at the Tipping Point? (drivelly, but contains some hard data)

July 24, 2006 issue - It's been a minor miracle: the presumed power of soaring oil prices to cause an economic crisis has turned out to be more myth than reality. We Americans have grumbled loudly about rising gasoline prices while tanking up as if almost nothing has happened. Over the Fourth of July holiday, a record 40.7 million Americans took trips of more than 50 miles, up 1.2 percent from a year earlier. In June, gasoline consumption exceeded 9.5 million barrels daily, a monthly record. Meanwhile, the economy seems strong. The jobless rate of 4.6 percent is surely close to "full employment."

<<cough cough>> - Ozy

The fighting between Israel and its neighbors—which immediately sent crude prices to $78 a barrel—poses this question: is our good fortune about to expire? Although the tentative answer is no, it cannot be delivered with complete confidence. Economist Nariman Behravesh of Global Insight thinks the economic expansion will continue even though oil prices may drift up to $85 a barrel. But he quickly qualifies his prediction. A major Persian Gulf supply disruption could cut oil output by up to 5 million barrels a day (out of a total of 85mbd). Prices could go to $120 a barrel. The economic effect would be "devastating." For every $10 a barrel, gasoline prices rise by about 25 cents a gallon.

-cut-

But until now, the economic impact has been muted. Why? Three reasons stand out.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/13880167/site/newsweek/

[UpInArms]

18. Crude pushes higher on Mideast tensions (now @ $76.11 bbl)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B90D64BB1%2DBBC8%2D493C%2DAE18%2D9347D02BF363%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose early Tuesday, pulling gasoline prices higher with them, as traders continued to nervously eye developments in the Middle East and fret that the conflict may spread beyond Israel and Lebanon.

Crude for August delivery was last trading up 81 cents at $76.11 a barrel. The contract pulled back Monday with traders apparently more optimistic about the potential for a resolution of the conflict in the Middle East, even as the violence continued.

Overnight, Israel continued to bombard southern Beirut and Hezbollah continued to fire rockets into northern Israel, several of which landed in the city of Haifa.

More than 200 Lebanese citizens have died since the outbreak of the violence, while at least 24 Israelis have died, according to the BBC. Israel said Monday that it will cease its offensive if the soldiers kidnapped last week are released without condition, if the Lebanese army deploys along the two countries' shared borders and Hezbollah is disarmed.

In a more ominous development, an Israeli general said Israel's offensive would continue for another few weeks, and said the deployment of large numbers of ground forces had not been ruled out, according to the New York Times.

...more...

[UpInArms]

57. Crude futures climb above $76 in early trading($76.05 bbl-unl gas @ $2.315

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4F37F48C%2D326B%2D4F61%2D91B4%2DB4311130738B%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- August crude climbed 75 cents to $76.05 a barrel Tuesday morning, following a loss of more than 2% in the previous session, and August gasoline was up 2.97 cents at $2.315 a gallon. Prices climbed on market concerns over violence between Israel and Lebanon, the potential spread of the conflict beyond the countries' borders and upbeat economic data from both the U.S. and China, which imply strength in oil demand. August natural gas rose 8.7 cents to $5.87 per million British thermal units, after losing nearly 9% Monday.

[UpInArms]

82. August Crude @ $74.95 bbl

1:41 PM ET 7/18/06 AUGUST CRUDE FALLS UNDER $75 FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 12

1:41 PM ET 7/18/06 AUGUST CRUDE LAST DOWN 35 CENTS TO $74.95/BRL

1:32 PM ET 7/18/06 AUGUST CRUDE UNCHANGED AT $75.30/BRL AFTER $76.55 HIGH

[Eugene]

117. Oil falls as Mideast violence seen not spreading

Oil falls as Mideast violence seen not spreading
Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:32pm ET

By Matthew Robinson

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil fell below $74 a barrel on Tuesday as concerns the conflict
between Israel and Hizbollah would spread eased after U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza
Rice said a ceasefire should come as soon as possible.

U.S. light sweet crude traded down $1.35 to $73.95 a barrel at 1816 GMT after hitting a high
of $76.55 a barrel earlier in the day. London's Brent crude gave up $1.05 to trade at $74.87
a barrel.

Oil prices came off sharply after Rice said a ceasefire should happen "as soon as possible
when conditions are conducive to do so."

more

[UpInArms]

8. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.82 Change -0.08 (-0.09%)

Dollar Rally Faces Hurdles at Present Level

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar_Rally_Faces_Hurdles_at_1153172542515.html

US Dollar
Risk aversion around the world is sending traders piling into the long dollar trade. As geopolitical risks rise, so does the US dollar. The relative stability of the country and its high interest rates is making dollar denominated assets an attractive place to hide for many. However, the dollar’s rally could very well have run its course as we come up on major support in the EUR/USD and resistance in USD/JPY. It is time to refocus on fundamentals and the future of the US economy as we prepare for this week’s extremely busy US economic calendar. We have already seen the Empire State Manufacturing survey and industrial production report, which were conflicting and gave us little directional indication. The NY Fed survey reported surprisingly sluggish growth in the month of July which suggests more weakness in the months ahead. On the other hand, industrial production surged by 0.8 percent in the month of June and although the report is more backward looking, it marked the strongest quarter in seven years. Capacity utilization also hit a six year high which suggests that inflationary pressures are still prevalent. We look for confirmation of inflation pressures in tomorrow’s producer price and Wednesday’s consumer price reports. Strong numbers on both fronts will prompt traders to position for slightly more aggressive comments by Bernanke late Wednesday morning when he delivers his semiannual testimony on the economy and monetary policy. The market is still predicting another rate hike in August, especially in the context of higher energy prices which means that they will be relating incoming economic data with the need for tighter monetary policy. Aside from PPI, we are also expecting the net foreign purchases report (also known as TIC) for the month of May. After the weak $46.7 billion inflow reported in the month of April, we need to see inflow in excess of $60 billion for traders not to punish the dollar. One month does not make a trend, but two certainly raises that concern. The current forecast is already calling for a weak demand of $56 billion. With central banks talking of reserve diversification and the Dow plunging 600 points in the month of May, there is ample evidence that demand could be waning which would bring the US’ structural deficiencies back to the forefront.

...more...

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: US TICS And CPI To Add Economic Momentum

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__US_TICS_1153176992354.html

US Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(Headline) (Core)
Consensus: 4.6% 1.7%
Previous: 4.5% 1.5%

Outlook: US PPI is forecast to grow 0.3% in June, with Core PPI up 0.2%, primarily on increasing fuel costs. Energy prices are set to rise 1.0%, driven by a 6% surge in gasoline prices. Several factors have caused the skyrocketing energy prices, including the summer driving season, rising demand from developing nations, and especially turbulent conditions in the Middle East. The nationwide average price at the pump recently topped $3.00, which was last seen following Hurricane Katrina and had been called a "tipping point" for consumer demand and prices in all sectors of the economy. Although there have been some negative effects from the inflating numbers, the economy has so far not suffered the major downturns some had expected. Nevertheless, sustained energy prices or continued increases could increase US factory gate prices, which in turn could set the tone for CPI increases and future Fed rate hikes. Central banks around the globe have been tightening monetary policy, which could curb world growth and ease inflation concerns and price pressures. However, a slowdown in the global economy coupled with skyrocketing oil prices could have severe consequences for inflation in both producer and consumer sectors.

Previous: May PPI in the United States increased more than expected, as energy prices rose substantially. Energy prices increased 0.4% after a 4% rise in April, while gasoline jumped 2.2%. Food prices eased 0.5% for the month, helping to curb the inflationary measure. The indicator has been rising recently, with a 0.9% increase in April and a 0.5% jump in March. As noted above, the indicator could be a leading measure of inflation. As producer prices continue to increase the costs could shift on to consumers and increase CPI and drive inflation up despite continued Fed increases.


US Net Foreign Securities Purchases (TICS) (MAY) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)

Consensus: $56.0B
Previous: $46.7B

Outlook: After the currency markets failed to respond to the surprise in the United States goods and services trade deficit in May, the pressure seems to be riding with the TICS release for the same month. Expectations of a rise in net foreign investment into the US to the tune of $56 billion would be a hearty improvement to the $46.7 billion printed in April, but would still fall far short of the task of funding the goods deficit. With a $63.8 billion shortfall in the trade balance, an amount equal to or greater than that in the form of a surplus from the investment gauge would be needed to in effect ‘fund’ it. As it stands, support for the growth in the TICS read is on shaky ground. Investment in treasury paper could be the driver for the rise. The Federal Reserve had raised the overnight lending rate on May 10th, which could have drawn more investors to the higher yields. However, the previous hike was in March, and April’s TIC data had produced little response to the higher yields over the following month in response. Also, expectations that a flight to quality during a sell off in emerging markets sell-off could prove to be overblown. Posing as the biggest possible detractor from the TICS read is equity investment. Many investors, foreign and domestic, likely took heed of the quick decline in the US’ major equity indices beginning in May and liquidated positions. The benchmark S&P 500 notched a 6.3% decline for the month, which extended further into June. Saddled with the task of funding a rising goods deficit, a disappointment compared to expectations could be doubly bearish for the US dollar.

Previous: Net foreign investment in US assets took a surprising dip in April as international investors liquidated some of their positions as many deemed their exposure to US dollar exchange rates too great. Against the market’s consensus of a $60.0 billion increase in net investment, the TICS read had actually advanced only $46.7 billion. Leading the decline was a massive decline in the pace of stock accumulation. After investors gobbled up a net $19 billion worth of US equities in March, a slight $6.5 billion was all that could be mustered the following month. Net purchases of corporate debt also reduced its pace to $33.3 billion from $48.4 billion the month before. The only real increase came on the back of increased interest in treasury paper, although that tallied a relatively slight $3.3 billion. Though the decrease in foreign interest in US assets was judged as a naturally disappointing turn of events, the real economic damage done was the shortfall in funding the other trade account deficits. The goods deficit outpaced the investment figure for the month and the necessary $2.5 billion a day needed to fund a current account deficit of similar size to the one in 2005, was not even in the ball-park.

...more...

[UpInArms]

29. Dollar flat after producer prices data

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD4CF74F4%2D547E%2D45CB%2D9EAC%2D377D92CA2ADC%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar was little changed against major currencies early Tuesday after data showed U.S. producer prices rose 0.5% in June, while core inflation increased 0.2%. Higher energy and food prices accounted for most of the gain in June in the producer price index for finished goods, the Labor Department said. The 0.5% gain in the PPI was much larger than the 0.2% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The core rate was exactly as predicted. The euro was last up 0.1% at $1.2537, while the dollar was up 0.02% at 116.96 yen.

[Ghost Dog]

80. City's foreign exchange trading surges 39 per cent to $1 trillion a day

http://news.independent.co.uk/business/news/article1183417.ece

London has extended its domination of the market for foreign exchange trading, according to figures released by the UK, the US, Singapore and Canada.

The value of business passed through London has surged by 39 per cent over the past year to $1.03 trillion (£560bn) a day, according to a survey of 30 institutions by the Bank of England. The rise means City banks conduct almost double the $577bn a day that passes through Wall Street, according to New York Federal Reserve figures.

<snip>

The report by the Bank's foreign exchange joint standing committee showed that the growth was driven by straightforward "spot" transactions. This tranche of business surged by 33 per cent in the six months to April alone. Business with organisations other than banks, such as hedge funds, based outside the UK jumped by almost 39 per cent.

Ms Fan said: "There has been growing investment by hedge funds and that is dominated in London."

Speculation on the path of interest rates in the US and the eurozone has triggered an outbreak of volatility in the euro-dollar exchange rate. The Bank reported a 67 per cent increase in foreign exchange option trading with overseas hedge funds and other institutions between October and April.

/more...

[UpInArms]

10. US chain store sales slip 0.6 pct in latest week

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-18T114553Z_01_NAT002147_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-RETAIL-ICSC-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. chain store retail sales fell 0.6 percent in the latest week as warmer-than-normal weather and high gasoline prices kept shoppers at home, a retail report said on Tuesday.

Sales slipped 0.6 percent in the week ended July 15, compared with a 0.2 percent rise the previous week, the International Council of Shopping Centers and UBS said in a joint report.

Compared with the same week a year ago, sales were running 2.0 percent higher, against a 3.0 percent increase in the prior week. The year-over-year sale gain was the smallest in nearly a year-and-a-half when it was 1.8 percent in the week ended Feb 19, 2005.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Exodus Continues at Troubled Fannie Mae

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/16/AR2006071600590.html

Senior executives at Fannie Mae are heading for the exits two years into a $10.6 billion accounting scandal that has no end in sight.

Last week, the company announced that its chief information officer, Julie St. John, would step down at the end of the year. Deputy general counsel Renie Y. Grohl, a 12-year veteran of Fannie Mae, is leaving in September. Barry Zigas, who was senior vice president for corporate and regulatory housing goals and joined Fannie Mae in 1993, left last month.

<snip>

Since the end of 2004, 44 of the top 55 executive positions at Fannie Mae have changed hands and are now occupied either by people from outside the company or by a handful of insiders who have switched jobs, spokesman Brian Faith said.

<snip>

In addition to paying $400 million to settle charges of earnings manipulation with the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, Fannie Mae also agreed to determine whether any of the current and former executives named in OFHEO's report on the accounting scandal should be punished or fired retroactively and forced to return money. OFHEO set a deadline of around October for the company to complete its review.

...more...

[UpInArms]

13. Racketeering charges hit bets firm

http://www.cnn.com/2006/BUSINESS/07/18/online.bets.reut/index.html?section=cnn_latest

LONDON, England (Reuters) -- Online gaming company BETonSPORTS, whose chief executive has been detained in the United States, said on Tuesday it faced a case over taking sports bets there.

<snip>

David Carruthers, chief executive of online gaming group BETonSPORTS, was detained by U.S. authorities while changing planes in Dallas, the company said Monday, sending its shares down more than 15 percent.

Carruthers, who has visited the United States in the past and was mounting a campaign to regulate -- and legalize -- Internet gambling in the country, was in custody in Fort Worth, Texas, a company spokesman said. BETonSPORTS is reviewing the situation, spokesman Kevin Smith said.

A federal grand jury in the Eastern District of Missouri returned a 22-count indictment charging 11 individuals and four corporations, including BETonSPORTS and three companies based in Florida, on various charges of racketeering, conspiracy and fraud, the U.S. Department of Justice said in a statement.

<snip>

Last week Carruthers told Reuters he thought that a U.S. Republican-written, House of Representatives-approved bill to crack down on Internet gambling by banning banks and credit card companies from processing the payments was bound to fail due to the mountainous backlog of other U.S. legislation.

...more at link...

[UpInArms]

14. Target cuts July sales view

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060718/bs_nm/retail_target_sales_dc

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Slower-than-expected July sales growth at Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT - news) raised concerns that consumer spending was finally succumbing to high gasoline prices and a slowing housing market, analysts said on Tuesday.

Target on Monday said it now expects 3 percent to 4 percent growth in July sales at its stores open at least a year -- a key retail measure known as same-store sales. The retailer had originally forecast 4 percent to 6 percent growth.

"We believe the weakening housing market and prospects of high oil and gasoline prices, along with other negatives, will during the next few quarters pressure same-store sales for Target and other retailers," A.G. Edwards analyst Robert Buchanan wrote in a note to clients.

<snip>

June same-store sales were slightly weaker than expected for the retail sector, which prompted concerns that the consumer may be wavering.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. China Says Economy Grew 11.3% in Quarter

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/business/worldbusiness/18yuan.html?ex=1310875200&en=200e44b43c476510&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

SHANGHAI, Tuesday, July 18 — The Chinese government said on Tuesday that its economy grew at its fastest pace in a decade in the second quarter, despite government efforts to cool down a stunning year of growth.

The economy grew 11.3 percent in the period, the statistics bureau announced, after growing by 10.3 percent in the first quarter, fueled by investments, bank loans and infrastructure spending.

At a news conference, the government said that its forecasts of 10 percent for the second quarter were far off. The 11.3 percent gain was the fastest-growth since 1994, when China’s economy was much smaller.

The second-quarter growth comes on the heels of a record trade surplus of $14.5 billion in June and could strengthen the case for further tightening measures.

Economists at home and abroad are warning that the government must do something to cool growth, which has surged sharply in the last six months.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

28. Mining stocks lead Nikkei to five-week low

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0087fe60-1617-11db-9950-0000779e2340.html

Tokyo shares fell to a five-week low on Tuesday as mining stocks lost ground following a slide in US commodities.

The Nikkei 225 dropped to its lowest level since June 14, falling 2.8 per cent to 14,437.24. The broader Topix fell 3.1 per cent to 1,475.28.

Sumitomo Metal Mining, Japan’s largest gold miner, dropped 6.7 per cent to Y1,510 as gold prices tumbled more than 2 per cent on Wall Street overnight. Toho Zinc plunged 10.8 per cent to Y733. Mitsubishi Materials, the top nonferrous metal smelter in Japan, declined 5.6 per cent to Y436. Nippon Mining declined 5.4 per cent to Y899

The steel sector lost 4.9 per cent, as investors took profits. The large-scale industrial consolidation between Arcelor and Mittal earlier in the summer had recently boosted investor confidence in the steel market. JFE, the second largest steel producer, lost 4.9 per cent to Y4,480. Nippon Steel, the largest, fell 3.2 per cent to Y429 after announcing its intentions to maintain its alliance with Arcelor. Japan Steel Works plunged 8 per cent to Y632. Kobe Steel decreased 5.9 per cent to Y319.

Export-focused stocks showed mixed results as the yen traded near Y117 to a dollar on Tuesday. Among technology companies, Advantest, the chip-gear manufacturer, lost 2.4 per cent to Y10,790. Peer Tokyo Electron, fell 2.3 per cent to Y7,220. Fanuc, the industrial robot producer, lost 2.6 per cent to Y9,000.

Sony, the consumer electronics and entertainment giant, dropped 3.5 per cent to Y4,620. Matsushita Electric Industrial, the consumer electronics manufacturer, fell 3.9 per cent to Y2,085. Sharp, a producer of LCD flat panel televisions among other electronics, fell 2.1 per cent to Y1,675.

Car manufacturers that derive a large portion of their revenues from the North American market outperformed the Nikkei as a whole. Toyota, the biggest carmaker in Japan, lost 2.6 per cent to Y5,570. Honda declined 0.9 per cent to Y3,470. Nissan lost 2 per cent to Y1,164.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

30. Govt calls for Bank of Japan caution on interest rates

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/060718/afp/060718064715business.html

TOKYO (AFP) - The government has called for the Bank of Japan to be cautious on further interest rate hikes after the central bank ended its nearly six-year policy of zero interest rates.

In an annual economic report, the government agreed that Japan was beating its decade-old scourge of deflation but warned of risks ahead.

"If interest rates go up quickly, there would be significant impact on each player in the economy," said the report submitted to the cabinet by Kaoru Yosano, the economic and fiscal policy minister

"The government's fiscal position may deteriorate if the burden of interest payments on government bonds rises faster than the increase in tax revenue brought about by economic growth," it said.

It also predicted that higher interest rates would lead to a stronger yen, which hurts Japanese exporters.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

32. Call rate jumps even as BOJ seeks to soothe market

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060718:MTFH05680_2006-07-18_06-23-53_T243262&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:24am ET

TOKYO, July 18 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan pumped extra funds twice into the banking system on Tuesday as the overnight call rate held persistently above the BOJ's new 0.25 percent target set after its first rate in six years late last week.

The BOJ injected funds into the money market -- 380 billion yen ($3.25 billion) in the morning and 611 billion yen ($5.23 billion) in the afternoon -- to help relieve tight conditions.

But even the BOJ's rare multiple fund injection failed to bring down the call rate, as foreign banks and security brokers -- coddled by years of zero cost funding -- scurried to secure cash from the money market.

Overnight call traded as high as 0.38 percent even after the BOJ's two fund injections. Traders said overnight call money was mostly traded at around 0.33-35 percent in the afternoon and 0.30-0.32 percent in the morning.

Friday's weighted average was 0.089 percent. Japanese financial markets were closed on Monday for a national holiday.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

33. -Japan recovery intact, deflation ending-government

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060718:MTFH05444_2006-07-18_06-11-57_T243808&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:12am ET

TOKYO, July 18 (Reuters) - Japan's economy -- already in its second-longest growth cycle of the postwar era -- will likely keep recovering with the end of deflation in sight, the government said in an economic white paper on Tuesday.

In the annual report, the government also called on the Bank of Japan, which raised interest rates for the first time in six years on Friday, to continue supporting the economy through "effective monetary policy."

"With an end to deflation in sight, the government and the Bank of Japan need to work together to achieve sustained growth under stable prices," the white paper said.

It also said the central bank should have a framework to stabilise market expectations for future monetary policy, citing inflation targeting as one example.

On Friday, the BOJ ended an era of zero interest rates and raised the overnight call rate to 0.25 percent, but it stressed that the pace of future interest rate hikes would be gradual.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

37. Yosano says BOJ move to normalise banking system

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060718:MTFH09958_2006-07-18_09-39-35_T302896&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:39am ET

TOKYO, July 18 (Reuters) - Japanese Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said on Tuesday that last week's move by the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates from zero was a step towards having a more normal banking system.

Yosano, who doubles as the Financial Services Minister, said it was appropriate that banks were raising rates on ordinary deposits to 0.1 or 0.2 percent from a minuscule 0.001 percent previously.

"Ending zero rates is the first step towards normalising the financial system, with lenders to gain interest for their money and borrowers to pay a cost for it," he told a news conference.

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

34. Weak German confidence dents euro, stocks soft

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060718:MTFH10036_2006-07-18_09-43-44_L18307668&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jul 18, 2006 5:44am ET

By Lincoln Feast LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - The euro hit a month low versus the dollar and government bonds firmed on Tuesday after tumbling German investor confidence prompted some scaling back of euro zone interest rate expectations.

Stocks fell as patchy earnings and the conflict in the Middle East weighed.

Germany's ZEW Institute said its index of investor confidence fell to 15.1 in July as the rapid rise in oil prices and weakening exports took their toll. The index was at 37.8 in June and expectations had been for a much more modest drop to 35.0 this month.

"The future development of the German economy is subject to considerable risks," the ZEW said in a statement. "First of all, the skyrocketing oil price has negatively affected business expectations. Furthermore, exports are expected to decline in light of the ... downturn of the U.S. economy and a strong euro."

The euro gave up early gains to trade down 0.1 percent at $1.2496, its lowest in almost a month.

Government bonds rallied, with the September Bund future <FGBLU6> up six ticks to 116.12 and the yield on 10-year bonds <EU10YT=RR> falling to 3.987 percent.

"It shows there could potentially be a crisis a confidence about the durability of German recovery going forward, which the (European Central Bank) will have to pay some regard to at some stage," said David Brown, chief economist at Bear Stearns.

"But it will not prevent the ECB from tightening again at the August 3 rate policy meeting."

/more...

[Ghost Dog]

36. (Earlier): German revival points way for eurozone

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/6b503084-15ac-11db-9950-0000779e2340.html
By Ralph Atkins in Frankfurt Published: July 17 2006 17:14

Germany’s economic revival picked up markedly in the second quarter of this year, an unusually upbeat Bundesbank reported on Monday, pointing to an improvement across the 12-country eurozone.

A recovery in the construction sector after a severe winter, as well as foreign trade, probably resulted in a marked acceleration in German gross domestic product growth compared with the 0.4 per cent seen in the first quarter, the Bundesbank said in its latest monthly bulletin.

“There could also have been a temporary stimulation effect from spending by foreigners in connection with the football World Cup,” the central bank added. It also saw the recovery becoming more broad-based with a further gradual improvement in private consumption – long the German economy’s Achilles heel.

Its optimism was significant because the Bundesbank usually has an advanced idea of the trends likely to be shown in official figures for Europe’s largest economy but tends to be cautious in its forecasts.

So far the strongest evidence of brightening economic prospects in continental Europe has come from confidence surveys, such as Germany’s Ifo index, although eurozone industrial output figures for May on Monday showed an unexpectedly sharp 1.6 per cent rise.

French growth also accelerated in the second quarter, the Bank of France indicated on Monday, although its forecast of 0.6 per cent growth, up from 0.5 per cent in the first quarter, was slightly lower than its previous estimate.

Analysts said eurozone GDP growth might have reached 0.7 per cent or more in the second quarter, up from 0.6 per cent in the first three months of the year.

Official figures will be released on August 14.

The acceleration would fit with the scenario of a gradual improvement in economic prospects forecast by the European Central Bank, which has been encouraged by it to hint at a faster pace of interest rate increases.

(more...)

[Ghost Dog]

38. (Also): Euro recovers vs dollar, ZEW survey due

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060718:MTFH08248_2006-07-18_08-15-49_L18228880&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jul 18, 2006 4:16am ET

LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - The euro recovered from the previous day's two-week lows against the dollar on Tuesday ahead of the key ZEW investor sentiment indicator for Germany, which is expected to support the case for more euro zone interest rate rises.

The dollar also slipped off Monday's three-month peak against the yen, as investors squared positions in anticipation of U.S. inflation data over the next two days and a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday.

The speech and the numbers could shed some light on the likelihood of an August Fed rate hike, and given the uncertainty of such a move investors scaled back dollar positions built up the previous day on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

"We are getting a bit of a feeling that may be we've gone a bit far with the dollar on the safe haven sentiment," said Peter Fontaine, FX strategist at KBC in Brussels.

"With all the U.S. inflation data coming up and Bernanke later this week, the dollar is taking a more cautious approach."

The German ZEW survey is due at 0900 GMT, with the current conditions index seen picking up to 14.0 in July from 11.9, as an export-led recovery increasingly feeds in to the domestic economy. However the business expectations gauge is expected to slip for the sixth consecutive month, falling to 35.0 from 37.8.

"In the case of a positive reading the supportive euro effect should be minor since an aggressive ECB stance has already been priced into money markets," BNP Paribas said in a note to clients, noting that the index may have been influenced by the soccer World Cup held in Germany in June and July.

(more...)

[Ghost Dog]

40. European shares dip as Mideast spooks, Atos warns

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060718:MTFH12710_2006-07-18_11-35-48_L18328558&type=comktNews&rpc=44
Tue Jul 18, 2006 7:36am ET

PARIS, July 18 (Reuters) - European stocks fell for a fourth straight session on Tuesday as Israel's continuing offensive against Hizbollah targets in Lebanon kept upwards pressure on oil prices, while Atos's (ATOS.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) earnings shock also weighed.

<snip>

By 1111 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index <.FTEU3> was down 0.2 percent at 1,270.63 as worries that the week-old violence between Israel and Hizbollah may engulf regional oil producers kept oil prices above $76 a barrel.

The benchmark index has lost 10 percent from a near five-year high struck in May and is little changed so far this year.

The recent surge in crude prices was behind a large slump in German investor sentiment in July, as shown by the latest survey by the ZEW economic research institute.

"The earth suddenly seems to have opened up underneath Germany's ZEW business expectations index. It shows there could potentially be a crisis of confidence about the durability of German recovery going forwards, which the ECB will have to pay some regard to at some stage," said David Brown at Bear Stearns.

"Quite clearly, higher oil prices, the ECB rate tightening intentions and weaker stock market performance is taking its toll on business sentiment."

Frankfurt's DAX <.GDAXI> lost 0.2 percent, while elsewhere in Europe, London's FTSE 100 <.FTSE> index and Paris's CAC 40 <.FCHI> both shed 0.4 percent and the Swiss Market Index <.SSMI> was down 0.6 percent in Zurich.

/more...

So, who's now behind the curve? Note: Bourses mostly recovering now since the shock of then.

[Ghost Dog]

72. Bourses close lower but brewers provide support

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38916.5301273148-879189549&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

Brewers and beverage manufacturers on Tuesday helped take the sting out of the heatwave across Europe and the torpor currently afflicting its equity markets. Dutch beermaker Heineken led the pack with a 3.9 per cent advance to €34.26. as it raised its full-year profit growth forecast after reporting that strong increases in beer volume had driven revenue growth in the first half. The broader market, however, slipped back as geopolitical concerns continued to unsettle investors. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 ended 0.1 per cent lower at 1,271.62. The Xetra Dax 30 in Frankfurt was 0.4 per cent lower at 5,396.9 whilst Paris’ CAC 40 lost 0.3 per cent to 4,734.5. The FTSE 100 in London was 0.3% softer at 5,681.7. The price of crude oil traded at $75.47, 17 cents higher but nearly $3 off its peak of $78.40 set on Friday. Total of France dropped 0.2 per cent to €50.40 and BP fell 0.9 per cent to 635p.

[Ghost Dog]

73. London slips further as oil stocks and online casinos continue to fall

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38916.5248032407-879189362&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

London equities fell further on Tuesday as the continuing crisis in the Middle East hit oil producers and gaming stocks lost further ground on fears of an imminent regulatory crackdown in the US. Pay TV giant BSkyB also fell as investors reacted wearily to news of a £400m capital expenditure programme to offer its subscribers free broadband internet access. Overall, the FTSE 100 ended the session 0.3 per cent lower at 5,681.7, a decline of 19 points. The mid-cap FTSE 250 lost 0.5 per cent to 8,968.8, a loss of 48 points. Partygaming tumbled 17 per cent to 93.5p, with its mid-cap competitor 888 Holdings 12.7 per cent weaker at 172.8p. BSkyB fell 4.3 per cent to 520.1p. BP fell 0.9 per cent to 635p as investors concentrated on the potential long term impact of the ongoing military action between Israel and Lebanon, casting aside short term revenue gains stemming from higher oil prices.

[Ghost Dog]

75. Sterling jumps on strong inflation data

http://mwprices.ft.com/custom/ft2-com/html-story.asp?dateid=38916.4007175926-879180173&guid={505EC99B-A594-4E32-A7DC-F63F345FBDB5}

Sterling rallied strongly in European morning trade on Tuesday as a surprise jump in inflation strengthened the hand of those predicting further UK rate rises. The consumer price index rose 0.3 per cent month-on-month in June, three times the expected rate, pushing annual headline inflation up to a nine-month high of 2.5 per cent. The sterling-positive nature of the release was tempered by the fact that much of the increase was due to higher gas and electricity bills, and that core inflation came in in-line with expectations at 1.2 per cent year-on-year. Yet the pound still rose 1.2c to $1.8303 against the US dollar, 0.2p to £0.6864 against the euro, a four-week high, Y0.7 to Y213.74 against the yen, a new eight-year high, and 0.8 centimes to SFr2.2777 versus the Swiss franc.

ed:

[UpInArms]

50. For 6 years:Cheap labour, costs draw foreign companies to China's far west

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20060716/bs_afp/chinabusinesstrade

CHENGDU, China (AFP) - Cheap labour and lower start-up costs are luring foreign companies to Chengdu, helping to revitalize an ancient city in western China determined to close the gap with the more prosperous east.

Chengdu, China's western cultural and economic capital for centuries, has engineered a partial revival by raking in record foreign investment over the last six years, and vaunts the presence of 78 blue-chip companies.

Motorola, IBM, Intel, Coca Cola and Toyota have led the charge of top brands that together have poured hundreds of millions in new factories, with Swedish retail giant Ikea and German software giant SAP set to be the newest arrivals.

Chengdu's economic boom can also be seen in the towering new five-star hotels which host a growing number of foreign trade delegations drawn to the river city, teeming with new restaurants and luxury retail boutiques.

<snip>

Average worker salaries of around 700 yuan (88 dollars) a month lag well behind those in premier economic centres such as Shanghai and Guangdong in the south, where the average worker makes at least double that amount.

...more...

[UpInArms]

16. Ex-Editor in Chief of Time Inc. Joining Carlyle Equity Group

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/business/media/18carlyle.html?ex=1310875200&en=ef7a8da510a7de73&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

The former editor in chief of Time Inc., Norman Pearlstine, will join the Carlyle Group, the private equity group, as a senior adviser on media and telecommunications acquisitions, the firm said yesterday.

Mr. Pearlstine, 63, who stepped down last year from the top editorial post at Time after 11 years but remained a senior adviser, will work on media deals for Carlyle.

<snip>

Mr. Pearlstine, who worked for 23 years at Dow Jones, including 9 years as the managing editor of The Wall Street Journal, is finishing a book about confidential sources. He said yesterday that he hoped to finish the book this week.

<snip>

At Carlyle, Mr. Pearlstine will be part of the firm’s global telecommunications and media team. The group includes James A. Attwood Jr., a former executive vice president of Verizon; William E. Kennard, former chairman of the Federal Communications Commission; and Daniel F. Akerson, former chairman of Nextel and XO Communications.

<snip>

He is expected to help find media deals for Carlyle, perhaps in the newspaper industry. Asked if he had formulated a view on whether newspapers were attractive, Mr. Pearlstine said, “I think it’s a little early.”

...more..

[Ghost Dog]

25. Carlyle moving into (international) media in a big way. uh huh.

[Roland99]

69. The Sombra Corporation has come to reality.

Thanks, Stephen King! :evilfrown:




:D

[Ghost Dog]

89. Yeah. I meant to add:

Media, uh huh, and TELECOMMUNICATIONS, nudge nudge, wink wink, of course.

[Roland99]

100. But of course, Winston.

[UpInArms]

17. Merrill Lynch profit soars 44%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B38F7228B%2DB8E7%2D43E3%2DB431%2DF9234D49B2D8%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch & Co., the nation's biggest brokerage, on Tuesday said growth in all of its three main businesses spurred a 44% rise in its latest quarterly earnings.

The company (MER) on Tuesday said second-quarter net income for the period ended June 30 rose 44% to $1.6 billion, or $1.63 a share, from $1.1 billion, or $1.14 a share in the year-ago period. Revenue increased to $8.16 billion from $6.3 billion.

<snip>

Merrill reported an 84% increase in equity markets net revenues including record revenues from private equity investments, which were up nearly threefold from the prior-year period.

Asset management revenue rose 24% to $1.77 billion, up from $1.43 billion the same period last year. Commission revenue surged 27% to $1.59 billion, up from $1.25 billion a year ago and investment banking revenue rose 26% to $1.16 billion, up from $1.01 billion in the second quarter 2005.

...more...

hmmmm.... wasn't there some insider trading going on at Merrill Lynch :eyes:

[UpInArms]

19. You Can Be Chief of G.E. and Still Bounce a Check (to GOP pol)

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/business/18donate.html?ex=1310875200&en=15886f0516c3ddf0&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

ALBANY, July 17 — Jeffrey R. Immelt, chairman and chief executive of General Electric, bounced a $2,000 check to the failed New York gubernatorial campaign of William F. Weld, according to a campaign finance filing released Monday.

<snip>

The Weld campaign filing said that Mr. Immelt, 50, wrote the check in May, on the same day he held a fund-raiser for Mr. Weld, the former governor of Massachusetts, at G.E.’s headquarters in Fairfield, Conn.

<snip>

Mr. Immelt, after all, earns $15.4 million a year, owns $190 million in G.E. stock and runs the seventh-largest company in the Fortune 500.

<snip>

“It’s not something where we have Bill call Jeff, and say, ‘Uh, hey, buddy,’ ’’ he said. That was especially so since the Weld campaign raised about $50,000 from G.E. executives at the event.

...more...

[Kukesa]

106. Unbelieveable! nt

[UpInArms]

20. New York Times to Reduce Page Size and Close a Plant in 2008 (250 jobs go)

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/business/media/18web.html?ex=1310875200&en=58a9433f8bd2b26a&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

The New York Times is planning to reduce the size of the newspaper, making it narrower by one and a half inches, and to close its printing operation in Edison, N.J., company officials said yesterday.

The changes, to go into effect in April 2008, will be accompanied by a phased-in redesign of the paper and will mean the loss of 250 production-related jobs.

Several other American broadsheets reduced their size a few years ago, and many are planning further shrinkage to cut costs as the price of newsprint climbs and newspapers lose readers and advertisers to the Internet.

The Times, which made the announcement last night on the eve of its quarterly earnings report, said it would sublet its plant in Edison and consolidate its regional printing facilities at its newer plant in College Point, in Queens.

That consolidation will mean the loss of about a third of the total production work force of 800.

<snip>

The reduction in the size of The Times will mean a loss of 5 percent of the space the paper devotes to news. If the paper only reduced the size of its pages, it would lose 11 percent of that space, but Bill Keller, the paper’s executive editor, said such a loss would be too drastic, so the paper will add pages to make up for some of the loss.

...more...

[UpInArms]

24. National City Bank profit falls 24 pct - mortgage hedging - bad loans

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-18T105129Z_01_N18374776_RTRIDST_0_FINANCIAL-NATIONALCITY-EARNS-UPDATE-2.XML

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - National City Corp. (NCC.N: Quote, Profile, Research), a large midwest U.S. bank, on Tuesday said second-quarter profit fell 24 percent because of hedging losses from mortgages.

The No. 8 U.S. bank said excluding the hedging results, profit rose from a year earlier, topping Wall Street forecasts, though bad loans more than doubled.

Net income for the Cleveland-based company fell to $473 million, or 77 cents per share, from $625 million, or 97 cents a share, a year earlier.

<snip>

National City is one of the largest U.S. mortgage lenders, but last week announced plans to cut back on subprime lending, or lending to less creditworthy borrowers.

...more...

[UpInArms]

26. Treasuries extend losses after June producer prices

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-18T123707Z_01_NYG000286_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices extended losses on Tuesday after a higher-than-expected reading of producer prices increased market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase in August.

U.S. June headline producer prices rose 0.5 percent, above economists' forecasts for a 0.3 percent rise. Core producer prices, which exclude food and energy rose 0.2 percent, matching forecasts.

Benchmark 10-year notes <US10YT=RR> traded down 8/32 in price for a yield of 5.10 percent, versus 5.09 percent shortly before the report and versus 5.07 percent late on Monday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.

[UpInArms]

27. U.S. rate futures raise chances of Aug rate rise

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-18T123718Z_01_CHB000195_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-RATES-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. short-term interest rate futures raised chances of a Federal Reserve rate hike in August after a stronger-than-expected June increase in overall U.S. producer prices.

Chances that the Fed will raise rates in August briefly climbed to roughly 68 percent from 62 percent just before the report and from about 57 percent late on Monday.

The Labor Department said its index on overall producer prices rose 0.5 percent in June from May. The median forecast of the June PPI among analysts polled by Reuters was a 0.3 percent increase.

[UpInArms]

43. U.S. companies cutting cash hoards-Fed's Warsh

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-18T130507Z_01_WAT006052_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-WARSH-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. companies are at last starting to borrow more and cut the cash hoards they maintained during the economic recovery, a trend that is likely to persist, Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh said on Tuesday.

"Increasingly, firms appear to be accelerating shareholder buybacks, raising dividends, increasing business spending, and becoming more acquisitive," Warsh said in remarks prepared for delivery at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington.

Still, Warsh said he expects corporations to keep cash levels above the levels of recent decades because of caution about the geopolitical and economic landscape, as well as a tougher regulatory climate.

...more...

[UpInArms]

52. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds reserves through 2-day system repurchases

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-18T135923Z_01_N18358581_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it added $9.25 billion in temporary reserves to the banking system through two-day system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds last traded at 5.25 percent, the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

Today's PPT Allowance is $32.850 Billion

[Roland99]

55. Looks like they're putting it to good use so far today.

:eyes:

[54anickel]

87. Dow, Nasdaq Stumble As Bond Yields Climb

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060718/wall_street.html?.v=12

NEW YORK (AP) -- Higher oil prices and a spike in bond yields pushed stocks lower Tuesday as investor enthusiasm waned over upbeat earnings and tame wholesale inflation data.
Solid second-quarter earnings from Coca-Cola Co. and United Technologies Corp. gave stocks an early lift, but the advance faded as continued conflict in the Middle East made energy traders nervous about supplies. A barrel of light crude climbed as high as $76.40 and was recently up 30 cents at $75.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

A mild rise in core wholesale prices calmed some inflation worries, but the data nonetheless unnerved the bond market. The Labor Department's core producer price index -- excluding volatile energy and food costs -- rose 0.2 percent to match Wall Street estimates, while a 0.5 percent jump in the overall index came in ahead of targets.

John Forelli, portfolio manager for Independence Investments, said that with so much uncertainty about global politics and the economy, investors were looking ahead to congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke Wednesday for clarity on interest rates.

"It's the first time in a while I can remember that we were within three weeks of a Fed meeting and Fed fund futures were 50-50," Forelli said, meaning the market is still divided on whether the central bank will boost interest rates on Aug. 8. "Bernanke tomorrow could be a linchpin for a rally or continued malaise in the trading range we've seen."

more...

[UpInArms]

91. With the dollar recovery in progress (due to the high price of oil)

(have to have dollars to buy oil still), the pressure is off to raise interest rates to save the buck - so I'd give odds that there will be a "pause" in the hikes.

[54anickel]

98. Yep, seems the "petro-dollar" is still considered the only game in town.

Ben can pull the data dependent mantra outta his ass for now to buy some time. I just read somewhere that Ben may mention stagflation tomorrow - I doubt it, but it was what some economist was quoted as saying. I'll see if I can find it again. Meanwhile, this is from yesterday's Pfenning. Sounds like things are slowing down, and they'll continue to lie about inflation being contained so I'd bet on a pause coming sooner rather than later, just in time for the elections would be my bet.

http://www.dailypfennig.com/currentIssue.aspx?date=7/17/2006

Good day... Well... From what I saw going on in the currency market on Friday, I'm not that surprised at what I see as I turn on the screens today. The dollar has really moved higher, on the news of the Middle East fighting. Traders have forgotten about the awful data that came out on Friday... They have forgotten about the Fed's words of how the next rate move would be data dependent... They are focusing on the heated Tensions and fighting in the Middle East.

For reasons that don't have anything to do with currency movements, I hope that things can settle down in the Middle East, very soon.

On Friday, Retail Sales printed an unexpected decline of .1%... It was forecast to increase .4%... June sales were held back by slower sales of motor vehicles and parts, department store merchandise, building/garden equipment and electronics. Increased purchases at gasoline service stations and at furniture and food stores limited the June decline. The thing that caught my eye, as I reviewed the report is how much 2nd QTR Retail Sales fell from the 1st QTR... The 1st QTR Retail Sales grew at a mighty 13.3% annualized pace... While the 2nd QTR grew at only 3.6% annual pace... Uh-oh...

The other piece of data last Friday that should have knocked the stuffing out of the dollar was the U. of Michigan Consumer Confidence for the first part of this month... While this data was expected to increase... It too fell to an 83 reading from 84.9 the previous month. So... Just to get my data scorecard up to date so I can keep track of what the Fed's watching... Last week, we saw Consumer Credit soar, The Trade Deficit widen by almost 1%, Initial Jobless Claims pushing higher, Retail Sales falling, along with Consumer Confidence... Hmmm... I wonder what Big Ben thinks about all this?

Today, we'll see that dumb Empire Manufacturing report that's all over the board each month, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for June. Later this week, we'll see CPI inflation data for June, and that's the Big Kahuna for the week... Right now, the "experts" have forecast Jun CPI to be weaker than May's.... I'll believe that one when I see it... No wait, I don't believe anything that CPI has to offer, so I have no idea why I said that! But seriously... CPI is expected to weaken... Somehow!

Not trying to bore you with data... But, since the dollar is soaring because of Middle East tensions... I thought it to be important to show why it shouldn't be! Oh, and there's one more thing... Big Ben Bernanke is going to give us a report on the Economy and Fed Policy on Wednesday... That ought to be interesting!



On edit - here it is, from an article I posted earlier. It was Nadler from Kitco
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BF070C793%2DCE0A%2D44B6%2DB392%2DCE93AAEC93A4%7D&link=&keyword=silver

snip>

The markets are also looking forward to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's semiannual report on monetary policy to the Senate Banking Committee on Wednesday.

"With the dollar still firm ahead of tomorrow's address by Fed Chairman Bernanke, gold is likely to remain pressured and looks set to spend more time in the $610-$655 area," Moore said. He added, however, that tensions in the Middle East could generate further gold price hikes.

Kitco.com's Nadler said that Bernanke might testify that stagflation is plaguing the American economy.

[UpInArms]

101. Treasuries at risk if Bernanke hints at rate hike

no wonder they are pouring oil and coal (and everything else they can get their nasty fingers into) onto the Middle East - they are relying upon that tinderbox to fuel their sorry asses out of this :grr:

http://today.reuters.com/misc/PrinterFriendlyPopup.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-18T184843Z_01_N18405023_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-FED.XML

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries look increasingly vulnerable to chances that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke could strike a hawkish tone when he speaks to U.S. lawmakers this week.

Through Monday, Treasury debt prices were on pace for their first monthly gain of the year, with a safe-haven bid out of riskier assets on the back of escalating violence in the Middle East giving bonds a nice tail wind.

"The entire yield curve is trading through fed funds," said Ihab Salib, global bond portfolio manager with Federated Investors in Pittsburgh. "The only reason I can see why the entire curve is doing so is the safe-haven trade."

But that flight-to-safety buying had lost momentum by Tuesday, and may stall out altogether if, during two days of testimony before U.S. congressional committees, the Fed chief acknowledges that accelerating inflation pressures may force policy makers to go on raising interest rates.

<snip>

"Everything is trading through fed funds. You would have to be thinking that not only are they done, but will have to cut (rates) fairly soon," Salib said, and that does not appear likely for some time, he added.

...more at link...

[54anickel]

105. More from your link....

HOPING FOR A SIGN OF THE DOVE

"The market needs to hear more dovish language from Bernanke to continue to support a rally that we have experienced on the long end," said John Miller, head of fund management at Nuveen Investments in Chicago.

In the aftermath of a report Tuesday showing producer prices rose more than expected last month, many see diminished chances that Bernanke will offer much comfort to bond bulls.

"He has to acknowledge that inflation rates at this current time are running above his comfort level," said Diane Dercher, chief economist at Waddell & Reed in Overland Park, Kansas.

Bernanke will "have that inflation risk bias in there when he is talking, but I think he will mention the moderation in (economic) growth too ... very much focusing on emphasising the data dependency of the next move," Dercher added.

Yeah, like that data is suddenly gonna reveal the truth. I think it will say what Ben needs it to say. :eyes:

[Ghost Dog]

111. They tell me, bottom line, one also needs to buy dollars in order to buy

both precious and base metals, amongst other widely traded commodities, on "world" markets. Oh yeah, really?

So, it's a thoroughfare, an in-an-out kind of trade. Hence: some wild volatility sometimes?

How much longer?

Aaargh! Some lyrics: How Long Has This Been Going On? (Van Morrison version):
http://www.sing365.com/music/Lyric.nsf/How-Long-Has-This-Been-Going-On-lyrics-Van-Morrison/F53343223441764D48256A34001210EF
(composed by: Ira Gershwin / George Gershwin)
Original?: http://www.stlyrics.com/songs/g/georgegershwin8836/howlonghasthisbeengoingon299728.html

I could cry salty tears
Where have I been all these years
A little while, tell me now
How long has this been going on?

There were chills, up and down my spine
Yes, there're thrills I can't define
Listen sweet, while I repeat
How long has this been going on?

Oh I could feel that I could melt
Into heaven I'm hurled
Oh I know how Leif Erickson felt
Finding another world
Kiss me once, and then once more
Oh what a dunce I was before
What a break, for heaven's sake
How long has this been going on?

ed: There's almost clearly no way the Fed's going to raise interest rates as far as required, in spite of all the sleight-of-hand. There's so much need to keep the wheels churning (and the syphons syphoning off). Some decline in the dollar will be seen as desireable (reduces the payments on the debts), BUT, as long as it's controlable. Any other world currency that seeks to interfere will be under threat. Of arms.

And thus they seek to prolong their surfing of this long bear market secondary wave... And head into a deep trough (the rich and powerful) well-prepared. Screw the rest, but maintain the illusion of stock market wealth and security for the average (post WWII baby-boom) punter, for a while.

[UpInArms]

31. Gold pushes higher as crude recovers (@ $653.20 oz)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BF070C793%2DCE0A%2D44B6%2DB392%2DCE93AAEC93A4%7D&symbol=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures posted modest gains Tuesday, as crude oil prices recovered and the fighting in the Middle East prompted foreigners to evacuate Lebanon in droves.

Gold for August delivery was last up $1.30 at $653.20 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal dropped more than $16 on Monday.

Other metals prices were mixed. Silver was up 1 cent at $11.10 an ounce and copper added 3 cents at $3.63 a pound. Platinum declined $14 at $1,236 an ounce and palladium dropped $3.10 at $319.10 an ounce.

"With investors now seeking safety in the dollar rather than gold, it looks as if further rallies may be used to liquidated longs, rather than generate fresh gains," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com. He added, however, that tensions in the Middle East could generate further gold price hikes.

Elsewhere on the commodity markets, crude oil recovered from prior-session losses. Crude for August delivery was last trading up $1.07 at $76.37 a barrel.

...more...

[UpInArms]

83. Gold Futures @ $629.50 oz

1:57 PM ET 7/18/06 GOLD FUTURES CLOSE DOWN $22.40 AT $629.50 AN OUNCE

[UpInArms]

35. Big Pharma To Reap Huge Windfall from Medicare Overhaul (Surprise! - Not!)

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/18/business/18place.html?ei=5088&en=64d069c630394419&ex=1310875200&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&pagewanted=all

The pharmaceutical industry is beginning to reap a windfall from a surprisingly lucrative niche market: drugs for poor people.

And analysts expect the benefits to show up in many of the quarterly financial results that drug makers will begin posting this week.

The windfall, which by some estimates could be $2 billion or more this year, is a result of the transfer of millions of low-income people into the new Medicare Part D drug program that went into effect in January. Under that program, as it turns out, the prices paid by insurers, and eventually the taxpayer, for the medications given to those transferred are likely to be higher than what was paid under the federal-state Medicaid programs for the poor.

<snip>

It is too early to calculate the full effect of the shift of the former Medicaid patients now covered by Part D. But analysts expect it to generate hundreds of millions of additional dollars this year for the drug companies, which have long chafed under the pricing restraints of the state programs.

<snip>

The windfall for the drug makers was made possible by a provision of the 2003 Medicare law that exempts Part D drugs from “best price” rebates that the drug makers have been required to give to the state Medicaid programs since 1991. Those rebates are meant to make sure that state Medicaid agencies pay no more than the best prices drug companies offer to any big commercial insurer.

...more...

[burf]

42. Kinda reminds me of

what Enron pulled with energy prices. Wasn't there a quote about screwing all the retired folks in California with their electric rates? Sounds like another corporate "good neighbor".

[RawMaterials]

39. Good morning ozy and all

great cartoon, just about spit my coffee out in laughter. :hi:

[Ghost Dog]

44. Yeah, but everything's right on course as far as BFEE/PNAC is concerned?

cf. World Burns, Cheney Campaigns
http://news.yahoo.com/s/thenation/20060717/cm_thenation/15102415
The Nation Mon Jul 17, 12:29 PM ET

The Nation -- As the world burns, Dick Cheney campaigns.

Today Cheney will spend seven hours in Iowa, stumping for two Congressional candidates and addressing the Iowa National Guard. No doubt Cheney will brag about how the Bush Administration is spreading peace and democracy across the globe.

But with the Middle East in flames, is political campaigning really the best use of the Vice President's time? We are talking about the man who effectively runs the White House.

Shouldn't top Bush Administration officials like Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice be in the region right now, working round the clock to defuse the crisis?

When it comes to engaging the world, a political campaign is no substitute for a foreign policy.

[54anickel]

47. The Syrian ambassador said it quite well yesterday on Lehrer's program....

It's all about image and PR to this maladmin

GWEN IFILL: If Secretary Rice does, as the president suggested today, head for the Middle East to try to broker this conflict, what does she have to bring to the table?

IMAD MOUSTAPHA: This depends on what she's going to the Middle East for. If she's just going to repeat her -- I mean, the U.S. administration's dictates that are flagrantly biased and single-sided, then this is a public relations exercise.

If she's going to do what previous administrations used to do -- please remember this. In the past, whenever there was a crisis in the Middle East, the U.S. administration will immediately dispatch an envoy to the Middle East that will actually work with all parties, reaching a settlement, a compromise, calming down with the situation, most importantly saving human lives that are being shed today in Lebanon and, of course, in the occupied Palestinian territories.

So it's up to the United States. If they really want to fulfill their role as the world's unique superpower, they have a moral obligation, or they just want to engage in a P.R. exercise.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/middle_east/july-dec06/ambassadors_07-17.html

[UpInArms]

46. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. Futures indications continue to improve heading into the open, now suggesting stocks may open on a slightly positive note. Network Appliance (NTAP) reaffirming its Q1 EPS outlook, reports that Apple's (AAPL) second-generation iPod nano is scheduled for release in August and an analyst upgrade on NVIDIA (NVDA) are among a few upbeat news items throughout a tech sector that has been riddled by discouraging reports.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.8. The knee-jerk reaction which recently sent futures indications lower, and had the indices positioned to open in negative territory, have rebounded upon further analysis of the PPI report and now suggest a relatively flat open. Since the PPI data are much more volatile than tomorrow’s more influential CPI data, an in-line core PPI does provide some indication that inflation is not increasing and may be holding steady.

08:33 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.5. Futures trade pulls back following PPI data, still indicating a modestly lower open for the indices. Total PPI rose a larger than expected 0.5% (consensus 0.3%) in June, while the more closely watched core rate (ex-food and energy) rose 0.2%, matching economists' forecasts. Bonds, which were down ahead of the data, have weakened, as the 10-yr note is now down 7 ticks to yield 5.09 %.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.8. Futures versus fair value are signaling a slightly lower start for stocks as investors grapple with continued unrest in the Middle East, a rebound in oil prices and mixed earnings news while awaiting a read on wholesale inflation (e.g. PPI) at 8:30 ET. Better than expected earnings from Coca-Cola (KO), United Technologies (UTX) and Merrill Lynch (MER) have improved sentiment; but Target (TGT) cutting its July sales guidance is acting as an offset.

[UpInArms]

48. More builders may warn this week

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={926699B3-AA44-4C1E-9F0E-BDD1F9864E3D}&siteId=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- More home builders could lower their earnings forecasts this week after D.R. Horton Inc. cut its 2006 profit outlook by nearly a third late last week on a slumping real-estate market.

Quarterly results are expected from Ryland Group Inc. (RYL : 36.40, -0.69, -1.9% ) , M.D.C. Holdings Inc. (MDC : 46.60, -1.01, -2.1% ) , NVR Inc. (NVR : 410.00, -16.10, -3.8% ) and others after D.R. Horton (DHI : 20.72, -0.48, -2.3% ) , the nation's largest builder, lowered its forecast on difficult selling conditions in the housing market.

The company cited rising inventories of homes for sale, higher cancellations and the increased use of incentives to attract buyers. See related story.

Home-building stocks are off more than 30% for the year to date, as the pullback in the housing market has been more dramatic than the "soft landing" expected by many investors and analysts. The companies say that sales are falling as potential buyers wait on the sidelines for the market to stabilize and with mortgage rates inching steadily higher.

"We expect the trend to continue of sharp reductions in 2006 guidance, especially among builders with geographic concentration to markets with more significant price deterioration," Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim wrote in a research note Friday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

78. U.S. housing index at lowest since 1991-NAHB

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-18T174515Z_01_N18483774_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HOUSING-NAHB-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. homebuilder optimism plummeted to its lowest level in more than 14 years in July as buyers canceled contracts and investors continued their exit from housing.

Sentiment among homebuilders dropped 3 points to a reading of 39 in July, industry trade group the National Association of Home Builders said on Tuesday. The index was below economists' expectations of 41 and fell to its lowest since 35 in December 1991 as the U.S. was emerging from recession.

Index readings below 50 mean that more builders view market conditions as poor, rather than good.

The NAHB's gauge of traffic of prospective buyers slumped 2 points to 27 in July, less than half of the level a year ago and suggesting a decline in the number of people visiting model home units over the last month, according to the NAHB.

The extended drop from 72 in June 2005 reflects "ongoing concern about where the market is going in terms of demand from legitimate homebuyers and investors and speculators that have been a factor in the hot markets," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders.

...more...

[UpInArms]

49. 8:34 EST Markets Ignore Coming Rate Hike, High Oil and War

Dow 10,793.86 +46.50 (+0.43%)
Nasdaq 2,051.26 +13.54 (+0.66%)
S&P 500 1,238.25 +3.76 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 5.102 +0.033 (+0.65%)

NYSE Volume 56,075,000
Nasdaq Volume 59,753,000

[54anickel]

51. Peaking Earnings Explain Why the Market Is Expensive

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=56458

Earlier this year, another street.com contributor and I had a debate that included the issue of whether the market was cheap or expensive on earnings. I was even willing to concede what appeared to be his point, that the market was not expensive on normal earnings, while alleging that the market was expensive on the scenario “I project going forward.” That was another way of saying that 2006 earnings were probably peak earnings, rather than mid-cycle earnings, thereby behaving in much the same way as the profits of cyclical stocks.

In fact, earnings are acting in much this way because the growth in the aggregates is being driven by cyclical industries such as energy, metals and mining, and until recently, housing. Unlike the 1990s, when profit gains were led by growth engines such as tech, pharmaceuticals, and financials, these standbys have not been much in evidence recently. (See e.g., Cramer’s Take: Tech’s Four Horsemen Ride in Circles.) While overall recent gains so far have not been “mediocre” (as Doug Kass warned last year that they would be), they have been “lumpy.” The moral of the story is that the composition of growth is as important as growth itself in determining valuations, and ultimately stock price movements. A simple numerical example will illustrate why.

Suppose in period 1 (e.g., 2005) that cyclical companies initially represent 10% of earnings, and their stocks command an average P/E ratio of 8, while the rest of the market represents 90% of earnings and commands a P/E ratio of 16. Multiplying the respective P/E’s by the respective weights and adding, one comes up with a market cap and “blended” P/E ratio of 15.2. Now suppose in period 2 (e.g. 2006), the earnings of the cyclical stocks (e.g. Alcoa) double, so they represent 20% of period 1 earnings. At the same time, earnings for the rest of the market fall from 90% to 85% of period 1 earnings. Adding the two components, period 2 earnings are now 5% higher than period 1 earnings (85%+20%=105%). But the market cap is just the same as before (.85*16)+(.2*8)=15.2. And the blended P/E multiple has actually fallen, because the same market cap is now divided by earnings of 1.05 rather than 1.00. This example, in fact, appears to be describing the current market action, and is reminiscent of the 1970s.

snip>

Yesterday, they say, is history and “tomorrow is a mystery,” but “tomorrow” (or the expectation thereof) is what drives stock prices. If as I believe, cyclical company earnings, and hence the aggregates are peaking, they have nowhere to go but down off this year’s high base going into next year. (The recent interest rate hikes will probably hold down compensating gains in other sectors well into 2007.) This was a scenario I had warned about in my April 12th piece that tried to reconcile weak stock price action with strong current earnings. Under the circumstances, the market is likely to be seen as expensive on next year’s earnings, which is to say I believe that there will be a further correction in the next six to twelve months. Individual stocks recommended by other Street Insight contributors on company-specific merits will buck this trend, and there is always room for another debate as to how long and how severe the correction will be. Still, a cautious posture is recommended at this time.

more...

[UpInArms]

53. 10:05 EST numbers and rah-rah blather

Dow 10,786.10 +38.74 (+0.36%)
Nasdaq 2,044.72 +7.00 (+0.34%)
S&P 500 1,237.54 +3.05 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 5.114 +0.045 (+0.89%)

NYSE Volume 315,511,000
Nasdaq Volume 235,031,000

10:00 am : Stocks are still on the offensive as nine out of 10 sectors remain positive. Per usual when oil prices are on the rise, Energy is pacing the way to the upside (+1.0%). Also benefiting from a pullback in the dollar, as well as strong Q2 report from Freeport-McMoran (FCX 52.40 +0.83), is Materials (+0.7%). Despite weakness in Treasuries lifting yields across the curve, the rate-sensitive Financials sector is getting a boost from a plethora of solid earnings reports. Merrill Lynch (MER 68.30 +0.03) beat expectations by $0.10 on record revenues while State Street (STT 57.71 +1.81) topped estimates and Charles Schwab (SCHW 14.60 +0.34), albeit missing forecasts by a penny, grew Q2 profits 35% year/year. DJ30 +53.71 NASDAQ +11.22 SP500 +5.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 581/1825/126 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 636/1682/56 mln

09:40 am : Market shrugs off early weakness spurred by a rebound in oil and ongoing tensions in the Middle East as tame inflation data and strong earnings reports renew enthusiasm for equities. Further analysis of a June PPI report that was not as bad as many feared is offering some early comfort for investors. Core PPI was in line with expectations and down from a 0.3% rise in May which had raised concerns that inflationary pressures at the producer level would keep core consumer prices firm. Better than expected earnings reports from blue chips like JNJ, UTX, KO, and MER, which holds true to the pattern that about two-thirds of the SnP 500 companies will beat estimates, are also providing a floor of support. DJ30 +60.43 NASDAQ +14.64 SP500 +5.16 NASDAQ Vol 80 mln NYSE Vol 64 mln

[54anickel]

54. The Bear’s Lair: Is Japan’s past our future?

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

The decision by the Bank of Japan Friday to raise the Overnight Call Rate from zero to 0.25% marks the definitive end of Japanese recession, which has lasted more than 16 years. Its onset was caused by excessive monetary expansion, and a consequent tsunami of speculation in stock and real estate markets. Here in the United States, we’ve had the monetary expansion and the speculation, so are we due to rot in near-recession until 2022?

We now have a pretty good handle on what caused the Japanese economy to under-perform for 16 years. The Bank of Japan expanded money supply too rapidly in the late 1980s, causing stock and real estate bubbles that reached peaks higher than had ever been seen in a major market. When the stock market index is selling at 100 times earnings, and the Emperor’s palace is worth more than the state of California, the overvaluation is not debatable, only the extent and timing of the crash to come..

In the early 1990s, stock prices approximately halved, and real estate prices began to decline. The Bank of Japan dropped interest rates, and the Japanese government expanded the public sector, indulging in Keynesian deficit spending as had become the accepted cure for a deflationary recession. As a result, the Japanese economy did not sink into deep recession, as might have been expected by those looking at the 1930s, but simply underwent mild deflation combined with low growth. As the 1990s proceeded, the economy’s refusal to recover properly became increasingly worrisome and the stock market, which had stabilized for several years at about 50-60% of its peak level, began to decline further.

In 2000, the apparent beginnings of recovery caused the Bank of Japan to attempt to raise the Overnight Call Rate above zero, but the move backfired. The banking system was now overburdened with bad loans, and the continuing recession was undermining the strength of borrowers previously thought invulnerable. A further burst of public spending (primarily on infrastructure in rural districts with important Liberal Democrat party Diet members) caused Japan’s public debt to rise above 130% of Gross Domestic Product and the state budget deficit to soar above 7% of GDP, but economic growth stubbornly refused to reappear.

snip>

In the U.S. today, unlike in 1995 Japan, housing prices are considerably higher than they were at the top of the boom, inflation appears to be making a comeback and the trade deficit is enormous.

We know what happened in Japan in 1995-2000 – the bottom fell out. The stock market index halved again from its reduced 1995 level, the budget deficit and public debt spiraled out of control, the economy remained mired in recession and bank bad debts endangered the entire financial system. If the Fed puts up interest rates far enough to beat inflation (a Fed Funds rate of around 8% is about what it would take at present) the U.S. will probably follow a similar trajectory.

If as is more likely the Fed sees recession arriving and therefore wimps out on inflation, the stock and asset price declines will be somewhat less, but the economy will lapse into 1970s style stagflation, with inflation spiraling upwards towards 10% per annum.

more...

[stop the bleeding]

59. the honeymoon must be over

the major indices are starting to take a turn for the pink water.

[Roland99]

60. DJIA down 90pts from the day's high

[54anickel]

62. Interesting to view the day and 52 week ranges for the indices

DOW
Day's Range: 10,719.34 - 10,813.79
52wk Range: 10,098.20 - 11,709.10

NAS
Day's Range: 2,024.68 - 2,052.53
52wk Range: 2,025.58 - 2,375.54

S&P
Day's Range: 1,229.59 - 1,239.86
52wk Range: 1,168.20 - 1,326.70

[54anickel]

61. 11:13 and in the red all around

Dow 10,726.07 -21.29 (-0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,026.99 -10.73 (-0.53%)
S&P 500 1,230.98 -3.51 (-0.28%)
10-yr Bond 5.128 +0.059 (+1.16%)
30-yr Bond 5.163 +0.059 (+1.16%)
NYSE Volume 762,673,000
Nasdaq Volume 583,328,000

11:00 am : Indices now trade in split fashion as industry leadership continues to weaken. Among the five sectors now in negative territory, Consumer Discretionary (-1.1%) remains the biggest drag on the broader market. As if oil prices climbing back above $76.50 per barrel wasn't bad enough for retailers, Target Corp. (TGT 45.01 -2.54) plunging 5.0% to a 52-week low after slashing its monthly sales outlook has merely fed the market's concerns about there being a slowdown in discretionary spending due to the effects of rising energy prices. Making matters worse have been analyst downgrades on J.C. Penney (JCP 62.57 -3.09) and Best Buy (BBY 43.98 -1.85). DJ30 +13.22 NASDAQ -3.76 SP500 -0.31 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1265/1386/450 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1383/1595/358 mln

10:30 am : Major averages spike to session lows, spearheaded by a reversal in Technology. Network Appliance (NTAP 27.98 +0.89) reaffirming its Q1 EPS outlook continues to offer some assurance that growth prospects may not be as bad as feared, especially after Sanmina-SCI (SANM 3.75 -0.52) cut its Q3 outlook; but some analyst downgrades in the Semiconductor space (e.g. TXN -1.3% and NSM -2.2%) has taken some steam out of early recovery efforts. Dell Inc (DELL 21.29 -0.28) hitting a new multi-year low and Yahoo (YHOO 31.37 -0.47) losing ground ahead of its earnings report tonight are also preventing Tech from paring its 11.8% year-to-date decline.DJ30 +27.21 NASDAQ +0.37 SOX -0.5% SP500 +0.71 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 949/1629/312 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1050/1831/230 mln

10:00 am : Stocks are still on the offensive as nine out of 10 sectors remain positive. Per usual when oil prices are on the rise, Energy is pacing the way to the upside (+1.0%). Also benefiting from a pullback in the dollar, as well as a strong Q2 report from Freeport-McMoran (FCX 52.40 +0.83), is Materials (+0.7%). Despite weakness in Treasuries lifting yields across the curve, the rate-sensitive Financials sector is getting a boost from a plethora of solid earnings reports. Merrill Lynch (MER 68.30 +0.03) beat expectations by $0.10 on record revenues while State Street (STT 57.71 +1.81) topped estimates and Charles Schwab (SCHW 14.60 +0.34), albeit missing forecasts by a penny, grew Q2 profits 35% year/year.DJ30 +53.71 NASDAQ +11.22 SP500 +5.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 581/1825/126 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 636/1682/56 mln

[Roland99]

64. That Adv/Dec line sure took a turn downward

[goforit]

63. Hows copper doing folks?

[54anickel]

81. Looks like metals are taking a hit, despite China's growth rate

announcment. Goes against Today's Pfenning :shrug:

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=metals


And Now... Today's Pfennig!

China's GDP Grows To 11.3%!
http://www.kitcocasey.com/displayArticle.php?id=838

snip>

Now... If we could just get past all this geo-political stuff weighing down the currencies, so they could heat up, too! I'm not making light of the bombing going on in the Middle East... As I said yesterday, for reasons other than currencies, I would like to see that all end very soon!

I'm just trying to point out what's really weighing down the currencies and giving the dollar such strength... Of course, it didn't help the euro this morning to see that the German Investor Confidence as measured by ZEW fell out of bed in June... The index, which has been ratcheting up, took a beating in June, falling from 37.8 to 15.1... OUCH! Well, you can blame all of that fall on oil prices... And either this index gets worse, or the German people make adjustments with their disposable income going forward... Because oil isn't getting any cheaper... In my opinion.

Last night, China printed their 2nd QTR GDP, which grew at the fastest pace in over a decade at +11.3%... So much for all that talk about China's economy slowing down, eh? This news was music to the ears of the base metals, like copper, and zinc, and aluminum... I like this news for the metals... And for the renminbi, which should lead the other Asian currencies higher... As I see it, the Chinese Gov't has a couple of choices... They have a soaring economy and have had one for over 4 years! Inflation is soon to be a major problem... They can raise interest rates... And they can allow their currency to get stronger vs. the dollar and other Asian currencies... I'm sure at first the Chinese Gov't will want to take the easy road and raise interest rates... But... Unless they allow the renminbi to appreciate, I don't see higher interest rates alone doing the trick...

Speaking of higher base metals prices... Aussie and Canadian dollars have been able to weather the dollar's storm, and I would think that this puts them in good standing once the geo-political tensions back off... You know, I don't know that Aussie and Canada will go higher... But what I'm saying is that it sure looks like they should, given the base metals' rebound...

snip>

OK... Since I came in an hour ago, the euro has reversed the selling after the ZEW report and is rallying... I'll go find out what's up and come back in a minute... Well... I'm back! And I couldn't believe my eyes! I actually saw a story that highlighted the fact that the benefit the dollar has been receiving from the geo-political tensions might not be enough to keep it strong over the long run.... WOW! The writer must be a Pfennig reader!

more...


Gold dips as dollar pushes higher against rivals
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BF070C793%2DCE0A%2D44B6%2DB392%2DCE93AAEC93A4%7D&link=&keyword=silver

Gold for August delivery was last down $17.60 at $634.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal dropped more than $16 on Monday.

Other metals prices also declined. Silver was down 34 cents at $10.750 an ounce and copper dropped 1.95 cents at $3.58 a pound. Platinum declined $16 at $1,234 an ounce and palladium dropped $7.20 at $315 an ounce.

"Sentiment has again been quite mixed today as traders keep an eye on the dollar and oil prices," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com.

Crude oil recovered from prior-session losses. Crude for August delivery was last trading up 83 cents at $76.13 a barrel.

snip>

"Mid-morning trade saw gold prices dip under $640 in an avalanche of selling fueled by dollar strength," said Jon Nadler, an analyst at Kitco.com.
"Proving once again that current market conditions remain extremely volatile, gold slumped almost $20, despite clear indications that the Israel's Lebanese incursion still has "weeks--not days remaining" ahead of it, and despite earlier firmness in crude oil prices."

more...

[54anickel]

65. Orwellian Economics

http://www.dailyreckoning.com/Featured/Bosworth071306.html

Currently, the Party uses the phrase "Gross Domestic Product" as if people were rolling up their sleeves to build machines and harvest crops. But increases in "GDP" these days come from consumption , not production. And the bad news gets worse: the consumption is not coming from savings, but rather from credit-card debt. In a giant circle of nonsense, this ends up increasing our national "GDP."

The housing boom accounts for much of the economic "growth," but few people realize that "home owners" have little or no equity in their homes, and that each move in the creative-financing shell game (between banks, mortgage companies and speculators) only adds to the mighty "GDP."

About 5 % - 10% of GDP, as it turns out, is Wal-Mart - a tsunami of cheap Asian stuff once made in the United States. Apparently, there is money to be made hollowing out America's middle class. The failed-but-somehow-eternal war in Iraq also gets factored into the GDP. Halliburton, arms merchants, Madison-Avenue propaganda companies – it all gets to be included. So does the Vatican-sized embassy in Baghdad (outsourced) and the permanent military bases there (outsourced).

Let's continue to scratch the surface of the rosy statistics being promoted by the Party's portable speakerphone, George W. The "low unemployment" figures mask a reality of millions of part-time, poorly-paid and uninsured workers. The poverty rate over the past six years has jumped to nearly 40 million people, and the number of Americans with no health insurance has risen to some 50 million people. Now, there are even indications that life expectancy is beginning to decline in the US, especially for adult males. Not a good sign.

Only the most partisan hack can deny that the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer under the Bush regime. Why is this happening? Joseph Schumpeter, the Austrian economist, recognized that free enterprise periodically gives way to "monopoly capitalism" - shorthand for clusters of oligopolistic firms earning supernormal profits, and this is especially true for industries with enormous economies of scale, like petroleum or pharmaceuticals. They begin to squeeze consumers and write laws to make that happen.

more...

[stop the bleeding]

66. just touched 10708 for a second

10700 is the magic number.

[Roland99]

67. DJIA was -62.68 at one point. Well under 10,700. 1PM Faeries arrived.

[stop the bleeding]

68. having an up and down time with the 10700 mark

could the wreck be going down,


faeries anyone?!?

[Buttercup McToots]

70. Owww

I got a really bad headache:yoiks:

[Roland99]

71. 1:40pm brief numbers.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 10,717.10, -30.26, -0.3%
Nasdaq Composite Index 2,019.80, -17.92, -0.9%
S&P 500 Index 1,228.44, -6.05, -0.5% ) was down 3 points at 1,231.

[Roland99]

74. Bouncing around just under 10,700 at 10,698

[stop the bleeding]

76. Big bearish engulfig candles happening

may go down a little more before the sprites, pixies and their friends arrive

[Roland99]

77. Faeries are working up a sweat fighting to keep it up over 10,700

[UpInArms]

79. 1:57 EST They're gonna need a bigger boat

Dow 10,690.69 -56.67 (-0.53%)
Nasdaq 2,014.50 -23.22 (-1.14%)
S&P 500 1,225.01 -9.48 (-0.77%)
10-Yr Bond 5.13 +0.061 (+1.20%)

NYSE Volume 1,554,541,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,196,520,000

1:30 pm : Despite oil prices turning negative on the day, the absence of leadership from the Energy sector leaves investors again questioning the sustainability of double-digit earnings growth for a 12th straight quarter. With Standard & Poor's currently forecasting operating earnings for Energy to be up 25.1%, again providing the largest contribution to aggregate profit growth for the S&P 500, consolidation throughout the sector removes what little hope participants have left about a solid Q2 earnings season and exacerbates concerns about downward guidance for the second half of the year. DJ30 -42.43 NASDAQ -18.78 SP500 -7.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1822/1042/1.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1945/1252/876 mln

1:00 pm : The Dow briefly turns positive within the last 15 minutes but almost as quickly relinquishes its push to the upside. United Technologies (UTX 58.90 +0.94), which beat analysts' expectations and raised its full-year profit outlook, and Coca-Cola (KO 43.29 +0.59), which also topped estimates, have been the biggest sources of support among blue chips. However, several components recently turning negative (e.g. AA, AIG, BA, C, and MMM), and International Business Machines (IBM 72.91 -0.79) hitting session lows ahead of its earnings report after the bell, are weighing on the price-weighted index. DJ30 -23.62 NASDAQ -11.23 SP500 -3.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1572/1262/918 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1787/1370/776 mln

[Roland99]

84. 10,705 and rising. Got their booster shots

[UpInArms]

85. 2:01 EST Here come the Yachts

Dow 10,704.69 -42.67 (-0.40%)
Nasdaq 2,017.53 -20.19 (-0.99%)
S&P 500 1,226.57 -7.92 (-0.64%)
10-Yr Bond 5.128 +0.059 (+1.16%)

NYSE Volume 1,577,471,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,228,907,000

[Roland99]

86. It's the Katrina cruise ships!

[UpInArms]

88. 2:05 EST And some Power Boats! (blather added)

Dow 10,710.54 -36.82 (-0.34%)
Nasdaq 2,019.23 -18.49 (-0.91%)
S&P 500 1,227.10 -7.39 (-0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 5.126 +0.057 (+1.12%)

NYSE Volume 1,596,036,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,233,901,000

2:00 pm : Indices extend their reach to the downside as inflation fears continue to grip the market. Not even gold futures, which typically garner interest as a hedge against inflation, have been unable to attract buyers. Gold for August delivery recently closed down 3.4% at $630 an ounce on the COMEX as traders continue to seek shelter in the dollar amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. DJ30 -55.71 NASDAQ -23.36 SP500 -9.73 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1918/966/1.16 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2086/1131/974 mln

[UpInArms]

95. 2:29 EST Power Faeries Win!

Dow 10,751.28 +3.92 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 2,025.44 -12.29 (-0.60%)
S&P 500 1,230.84 -3.65 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 5.128 +0.059 (+1.16%)

NYSE Volume 1,740,032,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,372,033,000

[KoKo]

103. Oh My! Thanks for the laugh .....Power Faeries...battling it out....

:rofl:

[54anickel]

90. Trash Talk (Waste to energy - we've got one of these plants nearby)

http://www.the-rude-awakening.com/RAissues/2006/march/RA071806.html

Remember the classic '80s movie Back to the Future, in
which Marty McFly (Michael J. Fox) traveled to 1955 in a
time machine built by Doc Brown (Christopher Lloyd)? The
initial version of the time machine, a souped-up DeLorean,
was fueled by plutonium. At the end of the movie, Doc Brown
returns from the future with a new-and-improved version
that runs on garbage.

Getting a nuclear reaction from coffee grinds and banana
peels seems a bit of a stretch. In fact, turning the
contents of your garbage can into any form of clean energy
sounds like a pipe dream. But Covanta Holdings Corp. (NYSE:
CVA) does just that. It turns garbage into electricity, in
a process known as waste-to-energy.

So how does the waste-to-energy process work? In a
nutshell, safety-inspected garbage is fed into a feeder
chute by an overhead crane.

The feeder chute delivers the garbage into a giant furnace,
where it is forced onto a downward-sloping grate. A
churning action is created by the moving bars of the grate,
mixing burning garbage with incoming garbage to help it
ignite. This furnace runs hot — roughly 1,800–2,000 degrees
Fahrenheit. The walls of the furnace are lined with steel
tubes; heat from the combustion process turns water in
these tubes to steam.

The steam then drives a turbine generator, which produces
electricity. After the garbage is burned, ash and gas are
left over. The gas is filtered through a "baghouse," a
system of hundreds of fabric filter bags that captures more
than 99% of all particulates. The gas is also run through a
high-tech pollution control system, and potentially acidic
gases are neutralized by a lime slurry sprayed into the
exhaust. The physical ash is then taken to a contamination-
proof landfill, if not first processed for extraction of
recoverable scrap metal.

The Environmental Protection Agency has declared that the
waste-to energy process has "less environmental impact than
almost any other source of electricity." A combination of
strict regulations and mature technology have made waste-
to-energy plants both green and efficient.

more...

[UpInArms]

92. Northwest may end pensions if Congress doesn't act

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-18T180928Z_01_N18439171_RTRIDST_0_AIRLINES-NORTHWEST-PENSIONS-UPDATE-2.XML

WASHINGTON, July 18 (Reuters) - Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWACQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research), which is struggling to fund billions of dollars in pension obligations as it works to emerge from bankruptcy, would consider terminating pension plans if Congress does not act on pension reform legislation within weeks, its chief executive said on Tuesday.

"Congress has to act now," CEO Douglas Steenland told reporters after a meeting with employees on Capitol Hill.

Northwest and Delta Air Lines Inc.(DALRQ.PK: Quote, Profile, Research), which also is operating under bankruptcy protection, are mounting a lobbying blitz this week to press lawmakers on pending legislation that would overhaul corporate pension funding rules and give airlines substantially more time to fund their deficit-ridden plans.

A special committee of lawmakers from the House of Representatives and Senate have struggled over the past four months to negotiate a final bill. There is no schedule for completing talks, but key lawmakers have expressed some optimism in recent days that a deal could be close.

"We've done everything we can possibly do to fix the company," Steenland said.

"If there's not a resolution of this by the August (congressional) recess, we'll have to give serious consideration to commencement of the termination process," Steenland said.

...more...

Here's an idea: Why the hell don't they put all those lobbying dollars into the pension fund!

[Roland99]

93. 2:28pm - WTF? Dow tops 10,750...back into positive territory

all in about the last 5 min.

[Roland99]

94. Futures Movers: Oil futures fall under $74 as traders' Mideast fears wane

ah ha

[stop the bleeding]

97. unleash the ponies

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

99. 2:45 EST Hands in the air now!

Dow 10,760.89 +13.53 (+0.13%)
Nasdaq 2,030.33 -7.40 (-0.36%)
S&P 500 1,232.22 -2.27 (-0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 5.126 +0.057 (+1.12%)

NYSE Volume 1,856,016,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,460,830,000

2:30 pm : Market bounces off its worst levels amid a sharp sell-off in oil prices, even lifting the Dow back into positive territory for the day and the year. Unlike earlier, when oil prices initially inching into the red removed leadership throughout the Energy sector and pushed the indices lower, aggressive consolidation in crude futures to $73.60 per barrel (-2.3%) going into the close of trading on the NYMEX is offering some solace, especially after high energy prices contributed to the stronger than expected rise on total PPI. It appears concerns about the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah spreading deeper into the oil-rich Middle East and potentially disrupting shipments is abating. DJ30 +2.96 NASDAQ -12.67 SP500 -3.46 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1946/973/1.31 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2061/1163/1.09 bln

[54anickel]

102. Huh? I'm getting dizzy trying to follow this stuff!

Oil futures fall as traders weigh Mideast prospects
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=google&guid=%7B90D64BB1-BBC8-493C-AE18-9347D02BF363%7D&keyword=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell under $74 a barrel to trade near a one-week low Tuesday as traders appeared to deem the potential spread of the violence between Israel and Lebanon into other areas of the Middle East as unlikely, but some analysts were quick to warn that Iran's involvement remains a possibility.

"As far as the oil markets go, the fear comes from the potential involvement of Iran in the current crisis, since neither Israel nor Lebanon are major producers, consumers or distributors of energy products," said Rakesh Shankar, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.

"We continue to believe that Iran's involvement in the crisis will largely be relegated to bombast, rather than any particular action," he said.
Iran benefits more from talking up oil prices through potential for action, rather than actually cutting back on their production, he explained. So, "the possibility of

Iran imposing any kind of embargo by withdrawing oil exports is highly unlikely," he said.

Still, if Iran -- the world's fourth-largest oil producer -- does get involved, it will likely not be by choice, Shankar said, pointing out the possibility that "a potential escalation in the conflict could be an Israeli decision to attack a Syrian or Iranian target."

more...



Oil Prices Rebound Amid Mideast Anxiety
http://www.forbes.com/entrepreneurs/feeds/ap/2006/07/18/ap2886996.html

Oil prices rebounded Tuesday after a steep drop the previous day as continued fighting in the Middle East unsettled a market already edgy about tight supplies.

World oil markets also are expecting continued strong demand, particularly from China, which on Tuesday reported its fastest economic growth in a decade.

Mike Guido, Societe Generale's director of commodity strategy, said "geopolitics rules the day" and that even a cease-fire between Israel and Islamic militants would not allow oil prices to fall below $70 a barrel because oil markets remain highly concerned about violence in Nigeria and Iran's nuclear standoff with the West.

"We're not going to get real sellers in the market until you see demand destruction," Guido said. But that does not seem imminent given the latest economic report out of China and signs that U.S. gasoline demand is rising despite near-$3-a-gallon pump prices.

Light sweet crude for August delivery rose 40 cents to $75.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, while gasoline futures jumped by 3.47 cents to $2.32 a gallon.

more...



Nigeria: Oil Prices Hit $109 P/B December
http://allafrica.com/stories/200607180303.html

FORECASTS have placed crude oil prices at $109.982 per barrel before the close of the year, egged on by unfolding events in the Middle-East and the crunch in refining capacity, as well as the growing demands of newly industrialised economies especially China and India.

Already, crude oil prices rose yesterday towards $77.53 per barrel as escalating fighting between Israel and militants in Lebanon created more geopolitical uncertainty in a market already jittery over volatility in producing countries.

Future market forecasts indicate that owing to certain factors, crude oil prices may not ease up in the immediate future. It is expected that the Middle-East crisis, including the problems in Iraq may snowball into a civil war with implications for oil supply from the Gulf region.

Although the Arab-Israeli conflict has always featured as a flashpoint which has always spiked prices, analysts didn't take into cognisance current events which has driven prices near the $80 per barrel "worst case scenario" posture of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Dr. Edmund Daukoru, OPEC President, had while speaking on the escalating Arab-Israeli conflict said oil prices might not exceed the $80 per barrel margin inspite of the unfolding situation in the region.

However, analysts opine that other factors at play may spike prices far above the $80 per barrel margin.

more...

[stop the bleeding]

104. uhh memo to oil markets

demand on oil increases at a an average of 2%/year for world demand - this has been happening for around 50 years, we are at peak oil production. I expect the price to be back up in a few days once the hysteria wears off.

The ME right now believe or not is not having as much of an impact on the oil markets as everyone thinks it is.

just my humble opinion

[54anickel]

96. Global Fault Lines (Roach)

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20060717-mon.html#anchor0

It has often been said that timing is everything on Wall Street. With the benefit of hindsight, this was certainly not the best of times to have turned more constructive on the global economic outlook (see my 1 May essay, “World in the Mend”). With the Middle East in shambles, missiles flying in North Korea, and terrorist attacks in India, new fault lines have opened up in an already fractured world. Is it time to reassess my newfound optimism on the global economic outlook?

From a macro perspective, the outcome boils down to assessing the interplay between geopolitical shocks and underlying economic fundamentals. As the recent swirl of events indicates, the risks of escalating geopolitical tensions can hardly be minimized. The challenge is to figure out how precarious the situation truly is. In an effort to do so, I’ve been reading a fair amount of history lately. I am especially haunted by Niall Ferguson’s latest tome on the tragic continuum of wars in the bloodiest of all centuries - the 20th century (see Ferguson’s The War of the World: History’s Age of Hatred, Penguin, London, 2006 - not available in the US until September 2006). I find Ferguson’s framework particularly relevant in attempting to put recent geopolitical developments in context. In his view, the destructive tendencies of the last century are traceable to the confluence of three powerful forces - ethnic conflicts, declining empires, and economic volatility. Unfortunately, there are worrisome signs on all three counts today.

The case for heightened ethnic conflict is painfully obvious. It’s not just the mounting tensions between the Islamic world and the West, but as the tragedy of Iraq underscores, it’s also the struggle going on inside of Islam. Terrorism has often provided an important spark for ethnic conflict - in fact, that’s what triggered the outbreak of World War I. But new IT-enabled capabilities have taken this threat to an entirely different level. Nor can the role of declining empires be minimized. The United States -- today’s sole global superpower - is stretched as never before. A zero net national saving rate, a record current-account deficit, and massive unfunded entitlement liabilities for the upcoming retirement of some 77 million aging baby boomers, all speak of a nation that may have an increasingly difficult time aligning a weakening economic base with its military and political outreach. At the same time, the ascendancy of new empires - especially China and quite possibly India -underscores the potential for a relative decline of the old ones.

Today’s volatility factor does not, however, match up with that which Ferguson identifies as being a key precipitant of “the war of the world.” Since 1990, most measures of the volatility of economic growth and inflation are sharply below those of earlier periods; moreover, since 2001, financial market volatility has been reduced sharply - especially for some of the asset classes that traditionally have been the riskiest, like emerging-market and high-yield debt. By contrast, the volatility spikes in the first third of the 20th century - underscored, of course, by the Great Depression - were a very destabilizing element in the world. The current reduced state of volatility is an encouraging development - suggesting that the steady progress of global prosperity in this era of globalization may well have the potential to break the chain of a most painful history. The downside of that conclusion is that volatility in today’s world may simply be dressed up in new clothes - namely, in the form of ever-mounting global imbalances and widening income disparities between the rich and the poor. There is nothing comforting about these tough developments on the soft underbelly of globalization.

Consequently, from a Ferguson perspective, at least two - probably more like two and a half - of the three pieces of this historical framework of world conflict remain very much intact. This is hardly an encouraging conclusion for global macro. But it is an important starting point as we then attempt to overlay these geopolitical characteristics of the current climate with our assessment of economic and market fundamentals. From my point of view, I stand by my basic conclusions of early May -that the stewards of globalization are now focusing a powerful policy arsenal on the rebalancing of an unbalanced world. In particular, I continue to believe that the G-7, the IMF, and the world’s major central banks are not only collectively focused on the potential perils of mounting global imbalances but that they are making good progress in addressing this serious problem. The IMF is moving forward in establishing a new multi-lateral framework of surveillance and consultation involving the US, Europe, Japan, China, and Saudi Arabia. This brings together for the first time a small group of major industrial countries together with the world’s most powerful developing country and oil producer. I am equally encouraged that major central banks seem relatively united in withdrawing excess liquidity from world financial markets - essential to temper the distortions in asset markets that have fostered destabilizing disparities between saving and trade flows.

Sounds rather foolish to put so much faith in the CBs that had quite a hand in creating this fiasco to begin with. I think their united in coming up with a way to split up the booty and maintaining control in this new era of globalization.

more...

[KoKo]

110. Agree.....and how does the health of Hedge Funds figure into

Roach's scenarios for stabilization in the face of "shocks."

The health of the underlying economy seems to be a mantra with so many of the economic writers ....yet they ignore the plight of the "Consumer" only mentioning the housing implosion just might cause a little "slow down" and that not to worry too much about "short term" oil shocks because the consumer can weather them if they don't last too long....

Is it just me, or was Roach writing some very good articles which criticized the Bush Economic policies a couple of years ago....yet lately he seems to be apologizing for predictions he's made that haven't yet panned out. It's almost as if he's drunk some Kool Aid lately...In this article he warns and then takes back the warning...sort of reminds me of Greenspeak. But, I guess his main point was that an expanding war in the ME is not going to be good for us and someone better try to get over there and get some peace process started before all hell breaks loose. Probably the best advice he could give given how controlled our markets are by that "silent hand" or "PPT." :shrug:

[54anickel]

114. Roach is a tough one to figure out sometimes. He's so focused on

the global macro picture that he sometimes overlooks the obvious in the micro economy. I think he tends to be a firm believer in the benefits of globalization, as if we are all on one and the same big happy team. I don't think the world quite works that way though. There's got to be a top dog and governments, Central Banks, etc. if not vying for that top dog position are at least attempting to protect their sovereignty from those that are. He tends to be more realistic on the micro level (most of the time), but sees the macro through rose colored glasses at times - more like wishful thinking. I think he looks at economic models without assessing the human factors.

JMO.

[Ghost Dog]

120. "economic models without assessing the human factors."

... You said it. :-(

[KoKo]

123. Yes...the flaw in so many of them... n/t

[Roland99]

107. 3:13pm - Back into the pink again

Dow Jones Industrial Average
Last: 10,729.67-17.69-0.16%

Nasdaq Composite Index
Last: 2,023.53-14.19-0.70%

S&P 500 Index
Last: 1,228.21-6.28-0.51%

[stop the bleeding]

108. yesterday finished at 8 points to the good

looks like today is going finish 8 points to the bad

Wednesday will finish 8 points to the ugly - sorry I couldn't resist:)

[Ghost Dog]

121. Good, Bad, Ugly. Sorry. Someone asking for this:?

http://www.lyricsandsongs.com/song/46912.html

The Good, The Bad And The Ugly

Good morning America, good morning to Erica
Who gave me good head while watching good morning America
And good day New York, have a good day in court

My niggaz drive around the hood looking for good yay' to snort
I never liked the goodbyes, always caught a good vibe
Always had a good time, could always spot a good guy
From a good guy, look alive, look alive, look or try
You know that old saying what they say about good guys
I bet that's why I went bad, needed all my chips bad
Fiends needed it bad, started hittin liq' bad
Had to get that work off before that shit went bad
If not, it gets bad, and things will only get bad
So now I'm getting bad skin, and I got that badge and
Tellin me them bastards, don't catch a bad break
Caught a bad rate on whip with bad brakes
I'm caught up in these bad ways havin a bad day
So now the game's ugly, and my pain's ugly
And my chain's ugly, things became ugly, cuz I'm ugly ducklin
Got a stain and its musty, wakin up looking crusty
And miss thang who's ugly is sayin to me “don't touch me”
I went from pretty willie to pretty silly
But I'm still pretty gully so you thins will still get pretty ugly
And this is for the hoods, the crabs, the junkies
We showin you the good, the bad, the ugly

Chorus 1:

We showin you the good, the bad, the ugly
B.I.G. said get ya money ain't no telling they gon love me
We showin you the good, the bad, the ugly
When your money get funny and them days ain't sunny
We showin you the good, the bad, the ugly
Niggaz give pounds and hug me, tho they really wanna slug me
We showin you the good, the bad, the ugly
And this for the hood, you got to love me


Good morning to ummm, I don't remember your name
But I remember the brain, here go a fare for the train and
Good morning to Chi-Town, where my niggaz ride down
And bust clowns, and look for some bustdowns to bust down
And she ain't got a car she on the bus now
But her gear is bangin, she one of us now
I wanted badly to bone cuz she was bad to the bone
She from a batter home, she mad when she at home
So I gave her my number to beep off, she wanted to take a week off
Bustin scary movie nuts, I had to get the freak off
The new Tom Cruise, took the Moulan Rouge on a too long cruise
She said “I ain't bonin you with them two long shoes”
And I get bougie in a grape poupon mood
So I'm gon act cheap in a coupon mood
She said “Ye' you don't love me?”
I told her that's the good, the bad, the ugly

Chorus 2:

We showin you the good, the bad, the ugly
B.I.G. said get ya money ain't no telling they gon love me
We showin you the good, the bad, the ugly
And this for the hood, you got to love me


Good morning to Queens, the north side of my scene
And when it comes down to it, I'm a ride for my team
See it's a beautiful life, but the bills will make it ugly
And the beauty of life, is when you're forced to make it ugly
Had a beautiful night, until a storm done made it ugly
And a beautiful wife, now we divorcing and its ugly
Now my mind state is ugly, my blind dates are ugly
I'm ready to turn it up in the streets and make it ugly
Used to sit in Mr. Uglies with these chickens that were ugly
And these bitches used to bug me to the point it made me ugly
Say things that were ugly in regards to their tummies
But I took it all back, cuz God don't like ugly
Now I'm curbin my bad words, they say that the bad burn
I left it on bad terms, with a chic with a bad perm
Whose case took a bad turn, and face caught a bad burn
And took the news bad when they said she had bad germs
The bad thing about it, the bitch was bad and bout it
But the pussy smelled bad, so I had to get up out it
So now we got bad blood, her son is a bad blood
But it happens in the hood when you inherit that bad blood
And once it get bad, it be bad for good
THAT'S BAD MEANING BAD NOT BAD MEANING GOOD
But I greet it as good, when you leave with the good
Its all good in the hood, got called good cuz I'm good
Now I'm havin some good nights, livin this good life
Got me a good girl that I'm gon make me a good wife
So I'm, good to go, and I'm good where I go
Look my man got good aim and that's a good thing to know
And he came home for good, off of good behavior
Spittin that good game, so what's good with this paper
And this is for the hoods, the crabs, the junkies
We showin you the good, the bad, the ugly

Chorus 1


If the above are not the lyrics to (The Good, The Bad And The Ugly) by KANYE WEST Would you kindly report the error ?

[stop the bleeding]

112. now at plus 50 points for the day

time to break out the yachts

[spotbird]

113. Yep, Happy Days are Here Again! nt

[UpInArms]

116. closing numbers

Dow 10,799.23 +51.87 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq 2,043.23 +5.50 (+0.27%)
S&P 500 1,236.86 +2.37 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 5.13 +0.061 (+1.20%)

NYSE Volume 2,481,305,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,996,465,000

Late rebound sends U.S. stocks to higher finish

NEW YORK, July 18 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended higher on Tuesday as a late rebound tied to stronger-than-expected earnings from companies such as United Technologies Corp. (UTX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) offset Target Corp.'s (TGT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) lowered sales forecast and worries about Middle East fighting.

The S&P 500 Index snapped a four-day losing streak.

For most of the session, U.S. stocks had been in negative territory after failing to hold onto gains achieved right after the open. The rebound came in the last 45 minutes of trading.

Based on the latest available data, the Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> advanced 51.87 points, or 0.48 percent, to end unofficially at 10,799.23. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.SPX> edged up 2.37 points, or 0.19 percent, to finish unofficially at 1,236.86. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> rose 5.51 points, or 0.27 percent, to close unofficially 2,043.23.

[UpInArms]

118. things are not so bad - screw the consumer blather

Stocks were volatile Tuesday as the return of inflation fears, volatile oil prices, mixed earnings news and ongoing unrest in the Middle East had investors scrambling to decide whether or not oversold conditions warranted owning stocks ahead of important CPI data and two-day tstimony on the economy from Fed Chairman Bernanke. When it was all said and done, oil prices selling off sharply in the final hour of trade and a late-day analyst upgrade on Intel Corp (INTC 18.21 +0.37) acted as sources of reassurance that things were not as bad as initially thought.

Crude for August delivery rebounding as much as 1.7% to $76.55 per barrel intraday, amid escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, exacerbated early concerns about the impact higher energy prices were having on the economy. To wit, the Labor Dept. reported that total PPI rose a stronger than anticipated 0.5% in June, fueled by a 0.7% rise in energy prices. Even after backing out volatile energy costs, the more closely watched core rate rose 0.2% (consensus 0.2%), leaving the core rate up 1.9% year/year -- the highest since September. The 10-year note tumbled 16 ticks, lifting the yield to 5.13%. Be that as it may, since the PPI data are much more volatile than tomorrow's more influential CPI data, an in-line read on core PPI provided some indication that inflation is not increasing significantly and may actually be holding steady.

Also keeping investor enthusiasm in check throughout most of the session was a warning from Target Corp. (TGT 45.51 -2.04), which hit a 52-week low after slashing its July same-store sales outlook, adding to the market's concerns about there being a slowdown in discretionary spending due to rising energy prices. However, after oil eventually closed at a three-week low below $74 per barrel, matching Monday's 2.3% reversal as traders became convinced the conflict will not spread deeper into the oil-rich Middle East, overall sentiment improved to leave Consumer Discretionary as the only sector to post a loss.

Among the more influential sectors eking out modest gains into the close were Financials, as the brokerage group got a boost after TD Ameritrade (AMTD 14.69 +1.05) reported it achieved a record quarter. Aside from the turnaround in Intel late in the day, Technology also got a boost from Network Appliance (NTAP 28.13 +1.04), whose reaffirmed Q1 EPS outlook lent some assurance about tech's growth prospects and eventually overshadowed Sanmina-SCI's (SANM 3.78 -0.49) Q3 warning. Industrials was another important sector offering some notable leadership after United Technologies (UTX 58.88 +0.92) beat analysts' expectations and raised its full-year profit outlook. BTK -0.2% DJ30 +51.87 DJTA +0.7% DJUA +0.3% DOT +0.8% NASDAQ +5.51 NQ100 +0.3% R2K +0.6% SOX -0.4% SP400 +0.03% SP500 +2.37 XOI +0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1438/1553/2.02 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1501/1763/1.65 bln