Tropical Depression Forms Off North Carolina; Watches Issued

[Purveyor]

July 18 (Bloomberg) -- A tropical depression with the potential to become a tropical storm as early as today has formed about 220 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, the National Hurricane Center said.

Sustained winds were 35 miles per hour (56 kilometers per hour) as of 11 a.m. Miami time, according to Jamie Rhome, a hurricane specialist at the center. That's just 4 mph shy of the threshold for a named tropical storm; if this storm strengthens to that point, it will be called Beryl.

``It wouldn't take much,'' Rhome said in an interview.

The depression has been moving slowly northward for six to nine hours. Models indicate the center could move over or just east of North Carolina's Outer Banks barrier islands in about 48 hours, the hurricane center said in a statement. An alternate scenario suggests the storm going ashore near Cape Lookout, North Carolina, south of the Outer Banks, in 36 to 48 hours.

``Based on the current forecast, winds will start to reach tropical storm force along the coast north of Cape Lookout later Wednesday evening and continue into Thursday,'' the statement said. ``At this point, winds are expected to reach 40 to 50 mph, mainly over the Outer Banks.''

The center issued a tropical storm watch for parts of eastern North Carolina at 11 a.m. local time, advising coastal residents from Carteret County north along the Outer Banks to protect their property in the event of a tropical storm.

--end of excerpt--

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aTMBcKyUapp4&refer=us

[BeHereNow]

1. Hope the folks there take a lesson from NOLA!

AS IN:
You are on your own people.
The government will not lift a finger to
help you should you need rescue.
Get out while you can.

BHN:scared:

[Purveyor]

2. 5 day projected path...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT02/refresh/AL0206W5_sm2+gif/181200W_sm.gif

[Davis_X_Machina]

4. Hey! Every time you post NOAA like that..

...from the free NOAA website, you're taking good money away from one of Rick Santorum's campaign contributors.

[StClone]

3. Follow 2006 Hurricane Season at this site

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2006/index.html

Pretty good along with NOAA:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[derby378]

5. It's now Tropical Storm Beryl

http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/mld/myrtlebeachonline/15064587.htm

[Billy Ruffian]

6. NHC announcements

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[hedgehog]

7. I know it wasn't there last night

and I'm pretty certain it wasn't on NOAA's site at about 9AM EDT today! This thing came up fast!

[uppityperson]

8. wunderground info

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200602.public.html
Tropical Depression Two advisory number 2
500 PM EDT Tue Jul 18 2006

...Tropical depression very near tropical storm strength...


a tropical storm watch is in effect for the eastern coast of North
Carolina from north of Cape Lookout northward to south of Currituck
Beach Light.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Two was
located near latitude 33.3 north...longitude 73.3 west or about 180
miles...290 km...southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.


The depression is moving toward the north near 6 mph. A slow turn
toward the north-northwest is expected to occur later tonight or
Wednesday.


Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours... and
the depression could become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.


The minimum central pressure is 1008 mb...29.77 inches.


Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...33.3 N...73.3 W. Movement
toward...north near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1008 mb.


An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

[halobeam]

9. where do the waters become too cold for this thing to

grow rapidly? I don't understand everything about this, but could this morph into a cat 2 hurricane by the time it arrives in NYC? Anyone know? would love some education if anyone's up for it.

TIA....

[pitohui]

10. no threat to nyc

i recommend following jeff master's blog:

As we can see from the historical plot of the 15 tropical cyclones to form in July and August off the Carolina coast in July and August (Figure 2), only one hit land, and only two got as strong as a Category Two hurricane. If this storm does hit land, it will definitely buck the historical trend. North Carolina, Virgina, Maryland, and Nova Scotia appear to be the only land areas at risk from this storm.

storm battered as i am, i would not hesitate to visit nyc at this time nor would i evacuate if i lived there

you'll be ok

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=423&tstamp=200607

[halobeam]

11. Thanks for the info...

As I type, we just had another VIOLENT storm pass, and east end long islanders are getting slammed now... never mind CT, RI and MA... They are just in the RED..

Tornado touched down this week in Westchester, NY as I'm sure you are aware, and it is just getting more and more crazy weather..like Florida used to be. Raining many days in the late aft/early eve and then nice and dry again w/in an hour. Oh how it's changed in these past thirty years, its incredible to me.

I don't trust what I'm told by BushTV regarding whether global warming is giving us warmer water higher up north, that could actually feed a storm, when in the past it hadn't normally. I'm not so sure we are in the normal, anymore.

I vaguely remember someone saying there is a point between VA and NY where the water just kills off further ignition of a storm because it is too cold.. maybe at least this early in the season?? I can't remember exactly where that line is though. I wonder if it still holds true.

Much obliged:hi:

[gorbal]

12. Beryl GAINS strength as it heads toward New England

Now this is freaking me out, if not for this storm for future storms-

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2006/07/20/ap/national/mainD8IVFGK8G.shtml

And check out this article, The area is due to get struck as coastal waters are 4-5 degrees warmer than normal-

http://www.seacoastonline.com/news/07202006/nhnews-ph-p-hurricane.html

Now I am just worried about getting to work tomorrow morning in that windy rainy mess.