Israel talks tough, but doubts are starting to appear

[bemildred]

---

With a state of emergency prevailing in northern Israel and no news of the two Israeli soldiers snatched by Hizbullah on July 12 - the incident that sparked the war - some Israelis are beginning to doubt the effectiveness of an offensive that has failed to stop Hizbullah's fire or push its fighters back from the border. Ground troops are battling guerrillas as warplanes and navy gunboats pound Hizbullah positions and Lebanese infrastructure - and the UN has warned of impending "catastrophe" from the relentless assault.

In Lebanon, more than 325 civilians have been killed, 1,000 civilians wounded and over 500,000 displaced. Israel's dead counted 29, about half of them soldiers, until Thursday, when nine Israeli soldiers were reported killed in a Hizbullah ambush while advancing into Lebanon.

---

"It is undeniable that Israel is in a bind. The army has again been over-confident and underestimated its abilities to break Hizbullah," said Israeli military analyst Reuven Pedatzur.

---

Israel's Haaretz daily wrote Thursday: "Despite the media euphoria and the patriotic spin, the aerial war ... is not heading for victory. In the best case, it is heading for a limited military achievement ... The air force's hammer blows are hitting Lebanon harder than they are hitting Hizbullah ... Even in the best-case scenario, Hizbullah will rise from the rubble ... One way or the other, the illusion of a magic solution is about to burst."

Daily Star

[Lindacooks]

1. K&R

[pberq]

2. "the illusion of a magic solution is about to burst" - K&R

[redqueen]

11. more violence solves everything!

right?

RIGHT?

:grr:

[Dead_Parrot]

3. A glimmer of sanity? nt

[bemildred]

5. Don't take it too much to heart.

I just thought some alternative spin might be a tonic.

[The Magistrate]

21. We Would Probably Agree, Sir, This Is A Sound Analysis

Only a limited objective can possibly be gained in this effort.

[bemildred]

24. It seems early yet, and the "fog of war" prevails.

There is room for more than one set of fools in this. One must balance whatever one might attain by force of arms here against the political and public relations debits now accumulating. It is hard for me to see, under any of the various scenarios that seem likely to occur, how the IDF is likely to improve on the military situation that existed before, other than some erosion of Hizbullah's capability, matched of course by their own, and both temporary. It seems unlikely, as things appear now, that the restoration of "deterrence" will be achieved, rather the opposite. I am reminded of some comments you made long ago on the debilitating effects of occupation on "readiness" for real warfare, and of Mr. Van Creveld's occasional pieces on those issues. I must admit that the result there is yet to be written. The present Lebanese government may well fall. And of course, it is all horribly expensive. I agree with those that think the effort would have been better spent on political measures, rather than use of force.

One can speculate on longer term strategies that might be in play, once logistics and resupply issues begin to bite, depletion of Hizbullah's supply of rockets for example, versus against the inevitable increases in public outcry, and the rising cost for IDF's operations.

Of course, it remains possible that it will grow, and then we are off into the mist with no idea where we are going.

It seems clear, as I've said before, that Nasrallah sought this out, and whether it leads to his rise or fall is the most interesting political drama in it, it seems to me, so far.

Everyone is rolling the dice.

[The Magistrate]

29. The Wheel Is In Spin, Sir, As You Say

My view is indeed that Nasrallah is making a play for iconic status.

One element that does seem to be left out of a lot of the commentary is the degree to which the Israeli action may be aimed at domestic political necessities. The people of any country will expect serious action be taken by its government in the face of armed provocations emmanating from bodies that proclaim undying hatred for their country. Certainly this action is pretty popular just now in Israel itself: even the main-line peace organizations seem to be willing to countenance it at this point as legitimate defense of the border. The people may well view the thing as a proper and necessary show of strength even if what eventuates from it is far short of what they are being led to believe now will be achieved by it. The increase in casualties from the necessary infantry operations will in time erode the support, but there will certainly be a period initially in which they harden resolve to press the effort as an expression of vengeance for the losses.

You may recall some comments on the effect of aerial bombing against civilians that arose shortly before these events. That is another element that seems to be ommitted from most commentary on the matter, again as it relates to Israeli opinion and reactions. Certainly the people of Lebanon are being subjected to much worse, but the rocket bombardment of Hezbollah is sufficient to engage the Israeli population in the same dynamic, that seems on the record of history to do a good deal more to harden the resolve of a populace to press on than to weaken it. When the bombardment is unable to achieve material results that really do lessen the capacity of a society to continue fighting, there is nothing to counter these moral effects, and they will weigh even more greatly on the scale of the popular mood. Israel may well prove less shy of casualties than is generally expected in consequence.

[bemildred]

31. All that you say is true.

Being attacked does tend to unite a people, and the domestic political motives you mention appear paramount in the beginning of this, on both sides I think. That does not make it wise, war is rarely wise, and one hopes for leaders that pursue more that domestic political expediency, and again I refer to both sides. What has happened so far seems predictable, or perhaps forseeable, in a broad way, and the political leadership would be held accountable for "bringing it on" in a better world.

Edit: perhaps I should say "all sides", as there are more players than two.

[The Magistrate]

32. In A Better World, My Friend, They Would Be Indeed

But we have not got one of those....

Each side is playing the other, and in hopes of appealing to the home team above all.

"Ir's deja vu all over again."

[bemildred]

33. "All politics is local". nt

[BillZBubb]

4. Classic mentally deranged behavior.

Israel does this shit over and over and it always fails to solve anything--in fact it makes future matters worse. Then they do it again and expect a different outcome. Good grief.

The stated intent to destroy Hezbollah was about as ignorant an objective as anyone could possibly have unless they were prepared to utterly lay waste to Lebanon and kill the entire population.

[DELUSIONAL]

6. my guess -- recruitment for Hizbullah will increase

and I find Hizbullah repulsive -- on many levels.

However, sometimes when a book (or movie) is banned it becomes more popular.

We are learning that this action of Israel is somehow benefiting bush -- mentioned in DU thread headline. SO . . . was this done for bush -- and aimed at the US elections in November?

[redqueen]

12. "Israel-Hizbollah fight is policy windfall for Bush"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060720/pl_nm/mideast_usa_policy_dc

[jayfish]

7. But Wait, I Thought I was Delusional If...

I believed that the capture of the two soldiers was what started the war.

Jay

[Miss Chybil]

8. Bombs = Magic Solution that NEVER WORKS!

Why? Why? Why? Such a travesty.

[wakeme2008]

9. I wonder if Israel will pull a Bush and not allow the pictures of dead

soldiers in their caskets being show....

[The Stranger]

16. I bet they will -- they don't put up with some of the shit Americans do.

Their press is more free in many respects there.

[MrPrax]

19. No it isn't...

quite the opposite...

All news from Israel must be approved by military censors...

Israeli Censor Wielding Great Power

JERUSALEM (AP) - Here's some news you may never hear about Israel's war against Hezbollah: a missile falls into the sea, a strategic military installation is hit, a Cabinet minister plans to visit the front lines.

All these topics are subject to review by Israel's chief military censor, who has - in her own words - "extraordinary power.'' She can silence a broadcaster, block information and put journalists in jail.

...

The Associated Press has agreed, like other organizations, to abide by the rules of the censor, which is a condition for receiving permission to operate as a media organization in Israel.

Reporters are expected to censor themselves and not report any of the forbidden material. This story was not submitted to a censor. When in doubt, they can submit a story to the censor who will hand it back, possibly with deletions. The AP will note in a story if any deletions have been made. If a reporter violates the rules, he or she suffers the consequences.
Post-Intelligence

All censored and all approved by the military...no independent reporting. Been like that for years -- in the old days when Israel did one of their 'revenge' strikes, the international press used to protest by posting the disclaimer, 'approved by Israeli military censors'...but it made Israel look bad...so they stop running the disclaimer.

Like America under Bush, Israel under Likud has undergone some changes...but it seems that no one wants to notice that part, still preffering some idealized notion of what they think Israel is...from back in the 70s or something.

[redqueen]

10. 15 israeli civilians vs. 325 lebanese civilians

why does congress not see this?

why do so many not see this for the tragedy it is?!

[ckramer]

13. Even the mighty USA is about to be defeated in Iraq

That sets an example for Israel ---> hardwares alone can't win a war.

[pberq]

14. spokesman for Israeli Committee Against the War

You can bet you're never going to hear an interview with a guy like this on US mainstream news.

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/07/20/1435205

. . .We’re going to go to Northern Israel to speak with Illan Pappe, an Israeli historian, author and political scientist at the University of Haifa. His latest book is called A History of Modern Palestine. Joining us on the line from Haifa, Professor Pappe. Thank you for joining us. We’re also speaking to Ralph Nader, on the line here in the United States.

ILLAN PAPPE: Hello, Amy.

AMY GOODMAN: It’s good to have you with us. Can you talk about what’s happening in Haifa right now, the rocket attacks on your city, and your response?

ILLAN PAPPE: Well, today was a relative quiet day. There were several sirens, but no rockets fell, unlike tomorrow. But I’m aware that what we are going through pales in comparison to what goes on on the other side of the border, where a large number of civilians have been killed.

And I think I can talk also as a spokesperson for the Israeli Committee Against the War, that the citizens of Haifa, Palestinians and Jews alike, there are quite a large number of them who ask probably the same questions that Ralph Nader asked before. Why doesn't our government accept the offer of the United Nations to an immediate ceasefire and the beginning of diplomatic negotiations? And why does the United States, in the most immoral position I have ever recalled since the end of the second World War, tells us and the poor citizens of Lebanon that it doesn't mind the mutual killing of citizens, so that the military operation could go on, where it knows that it has the power to stop today the shelling of both Israelis and Lebanese and to start maybe a more fruitful negotiations, not only over the questions of the prisoners of war, but maybe even over the question of the comprehensive solution. (More. . .)

[areo64]

28. Amy Goodman -- real news

Americans need to hear these voices!

[kurth]

15. Wait till they unleash their next wave of suicide bombers in Tel Aviv

[ugarte]

17. What? Shock & Awe don't work??...nt

[warrens]

18. Ominous WSJ headline

"Israel Weights Ground Offensive in South Lebanon: Air Assault Called Insufficient to Dislodge Hezbollah, but Wider War Is Risky"

Welcome to another few decades of non-stop war and suffering.

[AnOhioan]

20. A few decades?? More like "till the end of time"

There is no answer as long as radical Arabs and radical Israelis hate eachother.

The innocents are one I mourn.

[leesa]

22. Stupid idiots! How many times do these idiots have to try a military

solution and fail before it will get through their ignorant skulls that you can't bomb terrorism into submission??

[Pavulon]

23. Israel

has a pretty good record on arab wars. proxy wars and "terrorist" actions.

IE they are willing to use the level of violence required to stop a response.

[wakeme2008]

27. And they do not care is thousands of their own kids and civilians die

while they play Bush. :grr:

[Pavulon]

30. Bottom line

3 pan arab wars. Arabs lost. This a proxy war. Lebanon is the battleground for other powers.

Israel is not the us. We just sell them guns.

[daleo]

36. Here's what happened during the last invasion

Lesson 5: Contrary to initial Government expectations, Operation Peace for Galilee was neither of short duration nor low cost. The Israeli Cabinet authorized a limited incursion into Lebanon which was suppose to last just three days and produce few casualties. What it got was three months of fighting and a long-running, large-scale occupation. During the three months of fighting and the following year of occupation, the IDF suffered 3,316 casualties. While not large in absolute terms, these losses were staggering for a small country like Israel which was inordinately sensitive to casualty rates. Indeed, if one were to adjust these casualty figures to make them demographically equivalent to the United States, they would have equated to the U.S. taking 195,840 casualties for the same period. A large portion of the Israeli losses came from urban operations; e.g., Israeli casualties for the siege of Beirut equaled or were greater than those taken against the PLO in the entire war in the South. Indeed, losses in besieging Beirut cost the IDF almost 24% of its dead and 32% of its wounded for the entire war.

http://www.geocities.com/Pentagon/6453/pfg.html

The Israeli population will naturally lose its enthusiasm for the military action should this history be repeated.

[gorbal]

25. Here is Nader speaking on the issue

You may still have gripes about him but as he is a Lebanese American it might interest you what he has to say-

http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=06/07/20/1434256

[Crunchy Frog]

26. Interesting that the vast majority of Lebanese fatalities are civilians

while the majority of the (vastly fewer) Israeli fatalities are soldiers.

Which side are the "terrorists" again?

[IndianaGreen]

34. "Media euphoria" "Patriotic spin" "Over-confident" "Illusions"

Israel's Haaretz daily wrote Thursday: "Despite the media euphoria and the patriotic spin, the aerial war ... is not heading for victory. In the best case, it is heading for a limited military achievement ... The air force's hammer blows are hitting Lebanon harder than they are hitting Hizbullah ... Even in the best-case scenario, Hizbullah will rise from the rubble ... One way or the other, the illusion of a magic solution is about to burst."

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/article.asp?edition_id=1&categ_id=2&article_id=74138

At least Olmert did not land on a carrier and pronounced "Mission Accomplished"!

War never solves anything, and this war will only accomplish the destruction of Lebanon and the deaths and displacement of thousands, and for what? Israel could have done a prisoner swap, as she has done in the past, without incurring civilian casualties.

Only the neocons and neolibs in America and in Israel believe that there is such a thing as a quick and painless war.

[spinnaker]

35. deja vu

The cruelty of the israelis is extraordinary, how they can feel "euphoria" over the bombing of lebanon is unbelievable. I have seen the pictures of dead children blown out of their cars as they fled the south. No doubt their parents recalling what happened in 1982 when the israelis bombed civilian areas unmercifully. Try reading the accounts from that time of finding the basements of Sidon full of the hundreds of dead women and children (both lebanese and palestinian refugees from the south), bombed by israeli jets. Then in west beiruit, the israelis allied themselves to the christian phalangists (unbelieveably a group whose founder was inspired by a trip to 1936 nazi germany) and stood by as their proxies slaughtered 2 thousand mostly women and children in the plo camps of sabra and chatila. Israel has every right to defend herself and to go after those who directly threaten her; but every time they descend into savagery. I fear it will happen again especially as the foreigners are pulled out and there won't be anyone left behind to bear witness.