STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 26 July

[ozymandius]

Wednesday July 26, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 910 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2041 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1741 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1702
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 25, 2006

Dow... 11,103.71 +52.66 (+0.48%)
Nasdaq... 2,073.90 +12.06 (+0.58%)
S&P 500... 1,268.88 +7.97 (+0.63%)
Gold future... 618.00 +4.80 (+0.78%)
30-Year Bond 5.13% +0.02 (+0.43%)
10-Yr Bond... 5.07% +0.02 (+0.42%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Frank Barbera

Bears and Bulls

After closing sharply higher on Monday, stocks continued their advance edging higher by another 7.97 index points on the S&P, which closed at a reading of 1268.88. For the NASDAQ, Tuesday saw the tech heavy index also post modest advances with a closing gain of 12.06 index points to close at 2073.90.

Despite the gains of the last day or two, overall stock prices have moved essentially sideways since late May when the S&P first tumbled toward 1256.00. During that period of time, despite the build up of deep oversold technical conditions on several occasions, stocks have had a hard time kick-starting a sustainable rally wherein upside follow-through has been all but absent. At the same time, a steady current of underlying deterioration has taken place with the broad Advance-Decline Line moving steadily lower. Over the last few days, just prior to the strong rally on Monday, the A/D Line had broken to a series of fresh 52-week New Lows. At present, the A/D Line remains in a downtrend positioned well below its long term, now declining, 200-day moving average and below the major lows seen in late April and late October 2005 (arrow highlights the recent breakdown).

-see chart-

Is a Housing Collapse on the Way?

In my view, the fact that very cyclical groups such as Housing and Tech and now Basic Materials (Non-Ferrous Metals, Base Metals, Steel et al), are rolling over points to the beginning of a broadly based economic slow down. Is it possible that the Fed has already gone one rate hike too far? In my view, that could well be the message emanating from these weakening long term charts. If so, a slow down in the months ahead leading to recession could open up a veritable Pandora's box as the US has never gone into recession in such poor structural condition with debt loads very high and savings rates near all time lows. Worse still, the US has a huge current account deficit that requires more than 2 billion a day in foreign capital to fund our daily needs. If the economy slows down, will foreign capital still see the US as a good place to invest?

-cut-

However, what is interesting is that while Crude Oil is rising on less momentum, so too are the Oil Stocks. As can be seen on the daily chart of the Amex Oil Index (and other similar large cap Energy Indices), there are some ominous technical divergences taking shape using long term momentum gauges like MACD and the recent string of new highs. In the case of the XOI, we have now seen four lower highs on MACD against a pattern of four higher highs in price – technically, a potentially bearish set up. At present, like the S&P, the XOI price levels are still “holding” within a larger upward trending pattern, but this will need to be watched very closely in the weeks immediately ahead as any serious downside reversal in Energy stocks would be very detrimental to the stock market averages going forward.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 07/21
Prior 151K

2:00 PM Fed's Beige Book

[UpInArms]

34. Petroleum Inventories Report

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF3231E56%2DEE00%2D4A33%2DB33D%2D142D5A6CB585%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said crude supplies were unchanged for the week ended July 21, totaling 335.5 million. Motor gasoline inventories fell a bigger than expected 3.2 million barrels to total 211 million barrels. Distillate supplies climbed 800,000 barrels to 131.9 million. Following the news, September crude rose 40 cents to $74.15 a barrel after trading as low as $73.60 earlier. August unleaded gas shed 0.24 cent to $2.2825 a gallon and August heating oil was at $1.952 a gallon, up 0.81 cent.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=c636cc6a-1f7f-410c-b2c9-c1e5893db903&siteid=mktw&dist=MorePulse

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The American Petroleum Institute said crude supplies rose 86,000 barrels for the week ended July 21. The Energy Department had reported no change to stocks. Motor gasoline inventories were down 2.2 million barrels, the API said, compared with the 3.2 million-barrel decline reported by the government. Distillate stocks fell 216,000 barrels, the API said, contrary to the Energy Department's report of a 800,000-barrel increase in the fuel's supply.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil climbs toward $74 as Lebanon talks begin

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil rose toward $74 on Wednesday as international leaders met in Rome to seek an end to conflict between Israel and Lebanese-based Hizbollah guerrillas.

U.S. crude rose eight cents to $73.83 a barrel by 0936 GMT. Brent crude was up 12 cents at $73.40 a barrel. Both contracts lost over a dollar on Tuesday.

Foreign ministers, including U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, began discussing how to end the war and bring humanitarian aid to Lebanon.

The one-day Rome meeting, co-chaired by Italy and the United States, was to consider the conditions for a ceasefire, the dispatch of an international peacekeeping force to southern Lebanon and the opening of safe corridors for aid.

more

[ozymandius]

4. Oil prices show little movement

SINGAPORE - Oil prices were flat Wednesday as traders awaited the weekly report on U.S. petroleum inventories and the market seemed more confident that the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict would not spread in the oil-rich region.

Light sweet crude for September delivery was unchanged at $73.75 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"The market is a bit nervous about the U.S. inventory report. The numbers have been a bit confusing over the past two to three weeks" because of holidays in the United States, said Tobin Gorey, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "The numbers this week should give us a reasonably clean read on what is going on."

more

[ozymandius]

5. Growing Coalition Opposes Drilling

-excerpt-

The natural beauty of this area of the forest, known as Valle Vidal, remained largely unblemished as the 101,000-acre mix of scenic conifer forests and open meadows became a sporting playground for Hollywood stars and moguls, and later for oil company executives, before the land was donated to the government in 1982 by Pennzoil Corp. and opened to the public.

Now, Valle Vidal has become a battleground in the drive to expand energy exploration on public land, attracting the attention of a growing coalition of hunters, anglers, environmentalists, ranchers, homeowners and politicians across the ideological spectrum.

Here and elsewhere in the Western United States, this coalition is starting to resist the push for energy exploration in some of the nation's most prized wilderness areas. Although it remains unclear how successful they will be, these new activists -- including many who treasure Valle Vidal as a place to fish for cutthroat trout, hunt for elk and ride horses across its wide expanses -- have brought a new dynamic to the public debate over energy development in the West.

-cut-

The U.S. government has already opened to drilling 85 percent of the federal oil and gas reserves in the Rocky Mountains' five major energy basins. Responding in part to increased demand and rising energy costs, in 2005 the administration issued almost twice as many drilling permits -- 7,018 -- as President Bill Clinton did in 2000.

more

[UpInArms]

20. ConocoPhillips second-quarter earns $5.19 bln vs $3.14 bln

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B634FB3A4%2D86AB%2D4881%2DB256%2D95E9BF198A97%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- ConocoPhillips (COP : 67.45, +1.67, +2.5% ) Wednesday reported second-quarter earnings of $5.19 billion, or $3.09 a share, up from a year-ago profit of $3.14 billion, or $2.21 a share. Revenue rose in the latest three months to $47.1 billion from $41.8 billion in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call was for a profit of $2.81 a share for the June period. Looking ahead, ConocoPhillips said it expects upstream production to be impacted in the third quarter by seasonal maintenance scheduled in Alaska, the U.K., and Venezuela. The company also anticipates lower turnaround activity in its downstream business in the third quarter. Shares of the Houston oil company closed Tuesday at $67.45, up 2.5%.

[Roland99]

31. Funny image I saw last evening (wish I'd had my camera)

Had to run to the store to pick up some cases of bottled water and in the grocery store parking lot, near the end of the lot by the gas station, were two new Hummer H2 beasts with For Sale signs in the windows.


Morans.



Wish I'd had my camera and composed them with the gas station sign showing $3.07 in the background.

[UpInArms]

33. DOE: U.S. crude supply flat; gasoline supply down

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF3231E56%2DEE00%2D4A33%2DB33D%2D142D5A6CB585%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=bnb

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said crude supplies were unchanged for the week ended July 21, totaling 335.5 million. Motor gasoline inventories fell a bigger than expected 3.2 million barrels to total 211 million barrels. Distillate supplies climbed 800,000 barrels to 131.9 million. Following the news, September crude rose 40 cents to $74.15 a barrel after trading as low as $73.60 earlier. August unleaded gas shed 0.24 cent to $2.2825 a gallon and August heating oil was at $1.952 a gallon, up 0.81 cent.

[stop the bleeding]

37. Nigeria: Oil leak shuts off 180,000 barrels

LAGOS, Nigeria - Royal Dutch Shell PLC has shut off 180,000 barrels of daily crude-oil production in Nigeria because of an unexplained pipeline leak, a company spokesman said Tuesday.

The shutdown of the pipeline in the eastern Niger Delta brings the company's total daily production losses in Nigeria to more than 650,000 barrels a day - two-thirds of which is due to violence in the region.

It was not immediately known what caused the pipeline leak a Shell spokesman said.

Production difficulties in Nigeria, Iraq and the Gulf of Mexico have unsettled oil markets at a time of rising global demand and a limited supply cushion.

Nigeria's volatile Niger Delta region has been the seen of frequent disputes between oil companies and communities who have for years demanded a greater share of the wealth of Africa's largest crude producer.


http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/local/15121719.htm

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2414450

[ozymandius]

6. Consumer confidence posts modest rise

NEW YORK - A steady job market helped consumers overcome their concerns over high energy costs in July, unexpectedly lifting a barometer of consumer sentiment on Tuesday.

But there are warning signs the optimism may be short-lived as shoppers face a barrage of concerns from a cooling housing market and rising interest rates to war in the Middle East.

A report that showed another monthly decline in home sales, which have been a source of confidence for consumers, also stoked concerns about the economy. The decline, however, was less than analysts expected.

The National Association of Realtors reported Tuesday that sales of previously owned homes and condominiums dropped 1.3 percent in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.62 million units; analysts had expected sales to fall to 6.60 million units. It was the eighth time in the past 10 months that sales slipped, while home prices edged up at the slowest pace in more than a decade.

more

[ozymandius]

7. Bernanke's wealth creeps up, along with rates

New Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who took office on February 1, saw his wealth creep up at the end of last year as he was waiting in the wings to succeed Alan Greenspan as the man at the helm of U.S. monetary policy.

According to his latest financial disclosure report covering 2005 and released on Tuesday, the value of assets held by the Bernanke household closed out the year somewhere in the $1.15 million to $2.49 million range.

That is up from a range of $953,000 to $2.12 million as disclosed in papers filed along with his nomination to the top Fed post, which was announced in October.

more

[ozymandius]

8. That Raise Might Take 4 Years to Earn as Well

WASHINGTON — The economy has been steadily growing, with unemployment low and corporate profits at historic highs.

So why can't David Lewis get a decent raise?

Lewis worked his way up through a string of technology companies around San Jose, finally landing a $77,000-a-year Web design position. But in five years in that job, he received only a single 5% pay increase.

That was troubling for someone facing the rising costs of rent, food and raising a newborn daughter. But Lewis, 36, found it especially troubling because he had done what had traditionally helped Americans share in the benefits of a growing economy: He had earned a four-year college degree.

-cut-

Not since the 1970s have workers with bachelor's degrees seen a prolonged slump in earnings during a time of economic growth. These workers did well during the last period of economic growth, 1995 to 2000, with inflation-adjusted average wages rising 12%, according to an analysis by the liberal-leaning Economic Policy Institute.

more

[ozymandius]

9. London follows Wall Street higher

London equities made fresh progress on Wednesday, helped by an overnight rally on Wall Street and a warm reception for Reuters' interim results.

The FTSE opened up 0.3 per cent at 5,867.2 whilst the mid-cap FTSE 250 was 0.3 per cent higher at 9,279.4.

Overnight in New York, another set of strong corporate earnings reports helped the Dow Jones Industrial Average close 0.5 per cent higher at 11,103.7.

Back in London, interim numbers from Reuters beat forecasts leading the global news agency and financial information group to lift its forecasts for the full year. It also increased its dividend for the first time in five years as its recovery programme gathered pace. Shares in the company rose 2.5 per cent to 387¼p.

more

[ozymandius]

10. Wall Street seen opening mixed

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - U.S. stocks futures pointed to a mixed Wall Street opening on Wednesday amid a flood of expected earnings with car giant General Motors (NYSE:GM - news) and plane maker Boeing (NYSE:BA - news) taking center stage.

Shares in Amazon.com (Nasdaq:AMZN - news) fell 8.5 percent after Wall Street closed on Tuesday when the No. 2 e-commerce site reported a 58-percent fall in quarterly net income and cut its earnings outlook.

All eyes will be on General Motors' quarterly results, with investors awaiting a decision on a possible three-way alliance with Nissan Motor Co (7201.T) and Renault (RENA.PA).

"Anything besides a profit would be a catastrophy for General Motors' stock," said Roland Hirschmueller, a trader for U.S. shares at German brokerage Baader in Stuttgart.

more

[ozymandius]

11. SEC's Cox Says Hedge Fund Regulation Is `Inadequate' (Update5)

July 25 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox said hedge-fund regulation is ``inadequate'' and Congress may need to demand more oversight of the $1.2 trillion industry.

``The commission stated, when we adopted the hedge fund rule in 2004, that its then-current program of hedge fund regulation was inadequate,'' Cox told the Senate Banking Committee in Washington today. ``I believe that is once again the case.''

The SEC's efforts to keep tighter tabs on the industry were dealt a blow last month. A federal appeals court struck down an agency rule requiring hedge fund managers to register and submit to random inspections, giving Congress more reason to consider legislation.

Regulators are becoming more concerned about hedge funds because of the power they wield in financial markets and the growing number of frauds. As the industry's assets doubled in the past five years, funds including Bayou Group, Manhattan Investment Fund, Lancer Group and Philadelphia Alternative Asset Management collapsed, saddling investors with losses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ayU8tq5wsD4Y&refer=home

[Buttercup McToots]

12. Bulls bet on gold to top $1,000

Bulls bet on gold to top $1,000
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

(Filed: 14/07/2006)



A sudden surge in demand for gold options cashable at over $1,000 an ounce is the clearest sign to date that hedge funds and savvy traders are betting on a big rise in bullion prices.



UBS said investors had begun to show keen interest in "call" options to expire in December with strike prices of $1,000 an ounce and above.

The bank said buyers had even emerged for options dated late 2007 with a strike price of $2,500.

John Reade, the bank's precious metals strategist, said: "Clearly some options traders are positioning themselves for very large moves higher."

The prices are far above gold's all-time high of $850 at the height of the oil and inflation crisis in 1980. Gold closed yesterday at $653.

Buying a call option gives investors the right to buy a quantity of metal (or shares or other instrument) at a fixed price, on a set date. If the price falls short, the option expires worthless. If it shoots above the strike level, traders can make huge multiples on their stake. "Put" options act in reverse, gambling on a price fall.

Mr Reade said: "They're like lottery tickets. You lose most of the time, but when you win, you can win big."

The December 2006 call option with a strike price of 1,000 last traded at $3.60. This means a bet of $3.60 could net $100 if gold reaches $1,100 an ounce by December, or $200 if it reaches $1,200, and so on.

Traders can re-sell options any time before expiry, making fat gains on wild volatility.

The options are traded on New York's Comex exchange, or on the Over the Counter (OTC) market. The bulk are issued by UBS, Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs.

Gold has shown remarkable resilience since crashing from $730 to $544 an ounce in the May commodity sell-off.

The metal has regained more than half the ground, bringing in a fresh wave of "black box" momentum traders this week after breaking through key technical resistance at $637.

Ross Norman, director of TheBullionDesk.com, said gold was still under-priced compared to oil, trading at about eight barrels of crude per ounce compared to an historic average of nearer 15.

"Gold is due a catch-up. Once it goes above $750 there is potential for galloping price rises," he said.

Both the Russian and Emirate central banks are supporting the market, each buying the dips in a slow move to lift the gold share of their foreign reserves to 10pc.

It is hard to pinpoint why so many wealthy investors have become gold-bugs, but fears of a dollar slide are a key part of the picture.

The concern is that the US Federal Reserve will ultimately opt for easy money rather than dispensing bitter medicine to purge excesses of debt and over-spending. Neither the euro nor the yen are seen as strong enough to serve as durable alternatives.

Key EU finance ministers have already said they will resist a rise in the euro above $1.30, while Japan's finance ministry is battling to hold down the yen.

[UpInArms]

13. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.54 Change -0.09 (-0.10%)

Despite China's Warning of a Speedy Exit out of US Dollars, Strong Data Erases Losses

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Despite_China_s_Warning_of_a_1153862615478.html

US Dollar

Yesterday we asked the question of whether consumers can really be happy with low non-farm payrolls, rising gasoline prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Today we have our answer and that is YES – even in the midst of increasing risks, consumers are happy. In contrast to analysts’ expectations, consumer confidence increased from 105.4 to 106.5 in the month of July. The jump in confidence is even more surprising after retail sales dropped in June. However the mere fact that companies are not firing, which we see evidence of through the low jobless claims reports, and the fact that the homes are still being sold is enough to keep consumers happy. After an upward revision to existing home sales in the month of May, sales in the month of June fell by a less than expected 1.3 percent. It seems that every time analysts issue their warnings about how the next series of economic reports will show the clear deterioration in the US economy, data surprises to the upside. For the time being, this morning’s reports should have a positive impact on the US dollar. The stability of the economy and the housing market in the official data supports the case for a possible interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next month. The unofficial data however continue to warn of the dangers that lie ahead especially since existing home sales is a lagging indicator that tends to reflect sales that have been agreed upon in April and May. Regional indexes are far less optimistic on the outlook for the housing market and we may glean more insight from tomorrow’s Beige Book report. According to DataQuick, home sales in California fell 16 percent in the month of June when compared to last year while the Boston Globe reported that foreclosures in Massachusetts increased 66 percent in the second quarter. Yesterday we already talked about the $1.5 trillion of adjustable rate mortgages that are scheduled to reset to market rates over the next 17 months. Of course, these alarm bells have been ringing for some time and to date, there have been limited evidence that a sharp housing driven contraction is underway. Yet it is difficult to find arguments to support a further dollar rally aside from high yield. Just this morning, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said that they “should speed up the pace of diversification of (their) country’s foreign exchange reserves to help resolve the risk of possible losses to the dollar assets in the reserves.” As the world’s second largest holder of US dollar reserves, China is estimated to own $650 to $750 billion US dollars. Their message of dumping US dollars is clear and poses a big risk to further dollar strength. However we are used to being surprised by the greenback’s resilience, especially under the leadership of mixed message Ben (Bernanke). Therefore it would not be shocking to see a prolonged tightening campaign keep the dollar propped for a few more weeks.

...more...

US Optimism Boosts The Dollar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_financial_markets_headlines/US_Optimism_Boosts_The_Dollar_1153842984670.html

With one of the busiest days this week in terms of economic data, the dollar was able to find an active yet reserved bid Tuesday morning in New York. While, on the large, the fundamental offerings out of the US were tilting in the favor of the bulls, technical levels were keeping most pairs in line and economic enthusiasm contained. In the benchmark EURUSD, a strong rally in the Asian session took the pair nearly 70 points higher to 1.2670.

From there, the mild retracements were continually corrected until the data in the New York session drove the pair down to 1.2610, before finding support. A similar pattern formed in the sterling pair. After a 90 point initial run in the overnight session to 1.8535, choppy trading eventually led to the 80 decline on dollar data. Ranges were more defined in the greenback against the Swiss and Japanese currency. A triple top developed in the USDCHF around 1.2485/90, nearly 70 points from the bands bottom. Finally, for the yen, a solid range between 116.95 and 116.50 is providing limited room for market participants to run the pair.

Amid today’s scheduled releases, a clear picture of the potential of consumer spending and manufacturing activity evolved. Hitting the newswires marginally earlier than the other data, the Richmond Federal Reserve’s survey of the area’s factory activity outpaced expectations of a slight rise from 4 in June to 5, by printing 12. This was the first of the regional indicators that showed improvement – after worse Philly and Empire reads. Only the Chicago area read stands in the way of the nationwide index that will reveal the general sentiment of US industry for the current month. The other phase of data engendered the more immediate attention of the dollar traders. Existing home sales last month had beat expectations by slowing to only 6.62 million annual deals, against expectations of only 6.60 million according to the National Association of Retailers’ report. While the figure was good when measured against expectations, the data actually supports the continued contraction in the housing market. Month over month sales had actually slowed 1.3%, bringing the overall level to its slowest pace since January. A steady deflation in the housing market is in response to mortgage rates that are near a four-year high and are expected to keep rising through the end of the year. The movement of existing residences has grown in importance since Fed Chairman Bernanke said he expected the market to be a drag on the economy in the coming year in his testimony before Congress last week. Representing the vast majority of the typical American’s wealth, slowing sales, if sustained, will eventually draw prices down and wealth with it. Offsetting this dour look on spending was the Conference Board’s read on consumer confidence. The gauge grew for the second month in a row to 106.5 for the current month as employment and income continued to raise spirits above the worries of gasoline and interest rates. What was most important from the figure was that both the outlook and current conditions portions of the measure rose. This contrasted the drop in the University of Michigan’s preliminary read for the same month that reported a drop in expectations for the future. The market will continue to weigh in on the health of the labor market in comparison to consumer confidence to help reveal when domestic spending will begin to trail.

...more...

[54anickel]

40. Gold dips as traders eye dollar, Mideast (Wierd - inverse reaction)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BFF31A4F5%2DBB94%2D48BC%2D89B7%2D6816000FE995%7D&siteid=bigcharts&dist=news

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures dipped Wednesday, as the dollar dropped against major currencies and as international talks on the Mideast conflict in Rome dead-ended with the United States rejecting calls for an immediate cease-fire.

snip>

"We remain in a consolidation phase for gold (with shades of negative sentiment) and are searching for more concrete direction in coming weeks," Nadler said.
Other metals prices traded mixed. Silver edged up 4.5 cents at $10.99 an ounce, while palladium dropped $2 at $315 an ounce, platinum declined $3.50 at $1,226 an ounce and copper was last down 4.6 cents at $3.415 a pound.

"In the current climate, position rolling is likely to be the main theme as traders continue to monitor the currencies and newswires for direction," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com.

However, Peter Grandich, editor of The Grandich Letter, said there appears to be a heavy "short" presence in gold, "based on the fact that gold has been hit hard on several occasions of late shortly after the second London fix when European physical buying is over.

"I believe these sellers are exhausting themselves and a short squeeze is near," Grandich said.

The dollar traded lower against major currencies on Wednesday, but if it rises later in the session it might put pressure on gold as has happened in recent days.

more...

[UpInArms]

14. Enron: Skilling Request to Overturn Verdict (Lay is "dead") Denied

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/26/business/businessspecial3/26enron.html?ei=5088&en=354ca901e7f3fcd4&ex=1311566400&adxnnl=1&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&adxnnlx=1153884306-eadX2JisseFGV80e6h8ufg

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

HOUSTON, July 25 — A federal judge on Tuesday rejected a request by a former chief executive of Enron, Jeffrey K. Skilling, to overturn his convictions for fraud and conspiracy related to lies told to investors and employees about the company’s financial health.

Mr. Skilling contended that the evidence presented when he was tried alongside Kenneth L. Lay was not adequate for conviction and that his convictions on 19 of 28 criminal counts should be thrown out. With no explanation, Judge Simeon T. Lake III denied the request.

Mr. Skilling, who intends to appeal and is to be sentenced on Oct. 23, is awaiting rulings on other issues. For one, the government has asked Judge Lake to order Mr. Skilling to pay $139.3 million.

[UpInArms]

15. (Rah Rah Lies Exposed) Turning Back the Clock on Backdating

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/26/business/26leonhardt.html?ex=1311566400&en=0782382c0d68aa8f&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

ON a Friday night five years ago, a technology executive named Dave Rickey appeared on Maria Bartiromo’s weekly television show and delivered one of the more amazing performances in the history of CNBC.

Like a lot of companies in early 2001, the one Mr. Rickey ran — a silicon chip maker called Applied Micro Circuits — was going through tough times. Its customers were canceling orders for new equipment, and its stock had sunk from a high of more than $100 in the summer of 2000 to just $29 when Mr. Rickey sat down with Ms. Bartiromo.

<snipping with a reminder: Maria Bartiromo was the woman that "Chopper" Ben gossiped with and said "he was not a dove">

At this point, Ms. Bartiromo reminded him that about a year earlier, he had dared investors not to own Applied Micro stock, and Mr. Rickey quickly reissued the challenge on CNBC. “You know, Maria, I am very bullish about the company. I think we’re in the right space,” he said. “I dare you not to own my stock now. But, you know, I’m kind of a gutsy guy, and I have a lot of confidence in what we’re doing.”

What made this so amazing was that Mr. Rickey had already come very close to accepting his own dare. Ms. Bartiromo never asked him about his own holdings of company stock, and he didn’t volunteer the information, but it turns out he had sold more than 99 percent of his shares over the previous two years, for a profit of $170 million. He was unloading the same stock that he was urging investors to buy.

<snipping with a question: Bartiromo didn't ask about obvious conflict of interest? - hmmm - what a "great" journalist! :sarcasm: >

A few weeks after Mr. Rickey made his dare on CNBC, I wrote an article comparing Mr. Rickey’s public pronouncements with his stock sales, and as you might expect, he didn’t like it very much. “No two-bit writer from The New York Times is going to diminish my sense of accomplishment,” he told The San Diego Union-Tribune the next day.

It’s a pretty good line, I admit. Fortune magazine thought enough of it to include it in a multiple-choice quiz in which readers were asked to match chief executives with their quotations. (The quiz also included a vulgar insult that Jeff Skilling, then Enron’s boss, made to a Wall Street analyst.)

...more...

[Roland99]

19. (The love of) money is the root of all evil

This administration and those profiting from its policies are rather fine examples of that axiom.

[UpInArms]

16. U.S. mortgage applications decrease last week-MBA

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-26T110004Z_01_NAT002155_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-MORTGAGES-URGENT.XML

NEW YORK, July 26 (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage applications fell for a second consecutive week, reflecting a drop in demand for home purchase loans, an industry trade group said on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity for the week ended July 21 decreased 1.3 percent to 533.8 from the previous week's 540.8.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 6.69 percent, down 0.04 percentage point from the previous week. Interest rates were 0.17 percentage point below a four-year high reached one month prior.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase mortgage index fell 2.4 percent to 389.0. The index was substantially below its year-ago level of 485.1.

The purchase index is considered a timely gauge of U.S. home sales.

...more...

[UpInArms]

17. GM 2nd-qtr net loss widens to $3.2 Billion or $5.62 a share (loss)

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-26T110723Z_01_WEN2090_RTRIDST_0_AUTOS-GM-EARNS-URGENT.XML

DETROIT, July 26 (Reuters) - General Motors Corp. (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) on Wednesday posted a larger-than-expected operating profit, but a wider quarterly net loss after writing down costs associated with buyouts for almost a third of its factory work force.

The world's largest automaker posted a second-quarter net loss of $3.2 billion, or $5.62 per share, compared with a loss of $987 million, or $1.75 per share, for the year-ago quarter.

But excluding charges, GM posted a profit of $2.03 per share. Analysts, on average, had forecast an operating profit on that basis of 51 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

...more...

under that same reasoning - "but excluding charges" - crap - we have the following sentence to also be more compelling than the truth:

UpInArms lives in the midwest - but since UIA post on DU, we find that UIA is located in New York City. :crazy:

[Roland99]

18. Pay a lot now to save a little in the future..... or something...

[UpInArms]

21. US Treasuries dip on Fed rate views, before 2Y sale

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-07-26T125731Z_01_N26295497_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS.XML

NEW YORK, July 26 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices slipped on Wednesday as bond investors revived bets the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in August and ahead of new supply from a $22 billion sale of new two-year notes.

Investors were also cautious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve's beige book report on U.S. economic conditions at 2 p.m., which the central bank will use for rate discussions at next month's policy meeting.

"Treasuries have slipped on a continuation of what we saw yesterday: a readjustment of Fed expectations," said Scott Brown, chief economist with Raymond James & Associates, St Petersburg, Florida. "A lot of people had written the Fed out of the equation and now it is back to being a tossup whether they will raise or not in August," Brown said.

Early on Wednesday in New York, U.S. interest rate futures <FFQ6> were showing about a 59 percent chance of a Fed rate increase at the Aug. 8 policy-setting meeting, up from just below 50 percent before Tuesday's more robust than expected U.S. consumer confidence and home sales data.

...more...

[skids]

23. Why be cautious about the beige book?

If it shows a slowing economy, then that will be taken as a sign of the end of rate hikes, ergo: PONIES!

If it claims to show a strong economy then that will be taken at face value, ergo: PONIES!

So wherefore the caution?

:eyes:

[UpInArms]

22. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.8.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.5. A modestly negative bias persists in pre-market action, as evidenced by futures indications still trading below fair value. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that overall sentiment has clearly improved, with the market shifting its focus more toward the positives like better than expected earnings (e.g. GM, COP, WLP, KMB, SVU, PD, and BIIB). Aside from the temptation to lock in some early profits suggesting the indices will open on a downbeat note, oil prices rising ahead of government inventory figures (10:30 ET) may also be adding to early hesitation on the part of buyers since yesterday's late-day reversal in crude acted as a catalyst behind Tuesday's follow-through efforts.

08:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.0. Still shaping up to be a lower start for stocks as futures trade continues to languish in negative territory. Even though the majority of companies out this morning are beating analysts' expectations, investors are showing some reserve knowing that the on-again, off-again trading pattern that has driven the stock market for some time now may lead to early profit-taking, especially after the major averages advanced more than 2.0% over just two days.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.8. Futures versus fair value are signaling the possible end to a two-day rally as investors sift through another barrage of earnings reports. While General Motors (GM) is doing what it can to keep this week's rally alive, handily beat expectations and reporting its first profit in global auto operations since 2004, fellow Dow components Boeing (BA), which posted its first quarterly loss in three years, and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ), which is making a questionable $4.5 bln bid for Mercury Interactive, are stalling momentum among blue chips. The Nasdaq is also set to open modestly lower as Amazon's (AMZN) disappointing Q2 report offset better than expected top-line results from Sun Microsystems (SUNW).

[Roland99]

24. Amazon stock plunges as profit falls

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B01AABAFE%2DAFA2%2D482E%2D852D%2D935C0637E497%7D&siteid=

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Amazon.com Inc. dived more than 16% in pre-market trades Wednesday after the online-retail pioneer posted sharply lower second-quarter profit, hurt by the cost of employee stock options and higher operating expenses.

Shares tumbled to around $28 in pre-market action, well below the company's Tuesday closing price of $33.59 and precipitously close to having been halved from their 52-week high of $50. Before the latest decline, Amazon stock (AMZN 33.59, -0.72, -2.1%) was already down about 28% this year.

Late Tuesday, Seattle-based Amazon.com said net income for the three months ended in June fell 58% to $22 million, or 5 cents a share, from $52 million, or 12 cents, a year ago, when the company didn't include option expenses in its results.

Wall Street analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call were expecting earnings of 7 cents a share, on average.

[Roland99]

25. 9:45am - Falling down out of the gate

DJIA 11,067.77 -35.94 -0.32%
Nasdaq 2,061.17 -12.73 -0.61%
S&P 500 1,263.91 -4.97 -0.39%
Dow Util 433.38 -0.35 -0.08%
NYSE 8,114.54 -35.23 -0.43%
AMEX 1,927.82 -3.43 -0.18%
Russell 2000 690.34 -7.10 -1.02%
Semcond 388.82 -7.35 -1.86%
Gold future 632.00 +1.30 +0.21%
30-Year Bond 5.13% +0.01 +0.18%
10-Year Bond 5.07% +0.01 +0.12%

[Buttercup McToots]

26. ???

Soooo
What does the day hold for us?

[Roland99]

27. I've a feeling a lot of aimless wandering...

[Roland99]

29. 10:15am - A bit more red

DJIA 11,056.89 -46.82 -0.42%
Nasdaq 2,056.77 -17.13 -0.83%
S&P 500 1,262.68 -6.20 -0.49%
Dow Util 434.18 +0.45 +0.10%
NYSE 8,108.14 -41.63 -0.51%
AMEX 1,929.75 -1.50 -0.08%
Russell 2000 687.53 -9.91 -1.42%
Semcond 390.70 -5.47 -1.38%
Gold future 629.50 -1.20 -0.19%
30-Year Bond 5.12% -0.01 -0.20%
10-Year Bond 5.06% -0.01 -0.16%

Treasuries have flipped around to rise a bit.

[54anickel]

30. Quack Doctors in the House (Willie)

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie072606.html

Many investors wonder what the consequence is with a damaged compass for guidance in the economic seas. Assets must be granted a premium benefit in return for risk to capital. First, you see improper risk reward for bonds against erosion of capital via price inflation, which is much higher than regarded. Interest rates are not high enough, surely not versus the higher than stated price inflation. The most important component to a debt soaked USEconomy is clearly borrowing costs. Second, debt service becomes an inordinate burden to bear against the USEconomy, whose strength is less adequate than regarded to handle higher costs. Wages and savings are not high enough, surely not versus the worse situation after proper adjustment for price inflation. Productivity gains come from either more work with similar total hours worked, or similar total work with few workers. We have been seeing the fewer workers dynamic too much lately, much less than reported and certainly less than what the growing population requires. Third, cutting off the process of worker wage increase gains when their living expenses monotonously mount can force a higher number of bankruptcies than expected. Households are under such great strain. The US Federal Reserve insists on holding firm on its heretical notion that wage gains cause price inflation. Try focusing on money supply growth instead, guys! The foundation of the USEconomy precariously rests on the retail sector, where consumption occurs rather than fixed business investment. This structural misalignment is disastrous, despite the assurance given by economists. Fourth, a false sense of security comes from noting that consumer & retail spending stays steady, when a big piece of that spending is devoted to increasingly expensive gasoline. The central source of spendable funds in the USEconomy has been home equity, a perilous condition. Its weakness is simply difficult to lie about. Fifth, the appearance of brisk new home sales (more and more looking doctored) does not testify to strength in housing prices anymore. Additions to supply exacerbate the supply & demand already showing excess inventory. We cannot know truly whether housing prices have fallen when an unsold house bears no specific value, and inventory rises.

The US Federal Reserve monetary policy is charged to set short-term interest rate targets, to authorize liquidity influx & drain, to set bank reserve ratios against loan portfolios. The Chairman and Fed Governors need the best information. THEY DO NOT GET IT. Either they operate under entirely different accurate competent worthwhile statistical information from which to make their decisions, OR ELSE they are at a distinct disadvantage from relying upon faulty distorted inaccurate worthless statistics. They USFed is at great risk to making a serious mistake here and now. On top of the information risk, these bankers and economists are badly trained, in accepting a debt-backed currency and endorsing a debt-dependent economy. By misjudging the dependence of credit, by misjudging even whether the total size of transactions in goods & services (Gross Domestic Product) is in retreat or stalling, the USFed risks sending the USEconomy into a downward spiral. Downward housing momentum is very difficult to halt. We might have already passed that point. A mortgage bond crisis is written in stone, without a doubt certain to occur. Underwater homeowners go hand in hand with underwater mortgage portfolios. The housing sector is the viral body which will infect the bond market. Mortgage finance serves as the umbilical cord. The upcoming crisis is unavoidable, even with VALID STATISTICS.

big snip>

Pay little heed to self-serving commentary such as from Energy Secy Bodman. He claims something true, that global oil suppliers have lost control of their market. In other words, the Saudis and other sheikdoms no longer control price with actual oil output and vaporous FedSpeak language on increased future supply. How true! But he follows with claims again bordering on the nonsensical, that the USEconomy is surprisingly resilient to higher energy costs. No way is our economy resilient. We relied during the last four years of colossal raids on home equity. When that supply is no longer available, as in now, that resilience is absent. Further, set the record straight. When energy costs rise, we show higher retail sales (higher gasoline costs) and higher GDP growth (inflation labeled falsely as growth). Ironically we claim resilience to higher energy costs, evident in economic strength, but that phony resilience is founded in falsified statistics from inadequately adjusted price inflation from higher energy costs. Read that statement twice. Try not to laugh.

snip>

The most intriguing element to the housing debate points to housing prices. If a property goes unsold, sits on the market, languishes despite price cuts, wallows in the face of inducements (e.g. paid closing costs, cash under the table, phony projects funded for supposed repairs, subsidized interest rates, even a free in-ground pool), THEN HOW DO WE KNOW ITS VALUE & PRICE ??? The most frightening housing statistic is the inventory data. The June figure for existing housing inventory is up 3.8% to 6.8 months worth of supply. The inventory level for condominiums is at 8.0 months. This bloat represents the highest supply of unsold homes since 1997. In six months we will know what today's prices are. In twelve months, we will know what prices then will be six months from now. The residential real estate market cannot reveal adequately its prices when a mountain of unsold properties lies in swollen supply.

[54anickel]

28. Hedge Funds Draw Concerns

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hedge26jul26,1,2700687.story?coll=la-headlines-business

snip>

Hedge funds — generally secretive private investment partnerships that can use high-risk strategies in an effort to make extraordinary gains — have doubled their assets in the last five years to about $1.3 trillion overall and have become a major Wall Street force.

snip>

Under Cox's predecessor, William H. Donaldson, the SEC voted last year to require most hedge fund advisors to register with the SEC to allow for greater oversight. But a U.S. appeals court threw out the rule June 23, saying the agency had overstepped its authority.

Cox told the committee that he had not ruled out appealing the decision to the Supreme Court. The SEC has until Aug. 7 to file an appeal.

In the meantime, Cox said the SEC was preparing alternatives aimed at restoring parts of the rule while ensuring they would stand up to litigation. The original proposal would have made clear that the SEC had the primary responsibility for regulating hedge funds, more than other federal agencies or the states.

snip>

Treasury Undersecretary Randal Quarles, who also testified at the hearing, said hedge funds were less likely to trigger widespread harm to markets today than in previous years because major banks that lend to the funds had increased their scrutiny of the industry.

Quarles said it would be premature for Congress to introduce new legislation regulating hedge funds.

The President's Working Group on Financial Markets, which consists of banking, securities and commodities regulators, has not recommended direct regulation of hedge funds. But it has stated that if evidence emerged that indirect regulation wasn't working to constrain the amount of debt funds took on in pursuit of high returns, then direct regulation of hedge funds could be considered.


more....


Meanwhile, the Treasury has it's first formal meeting with hedge funds and investment banks. Why? Get this...."in a sign that it wants to learn more about the possible risks of lenders' exposure to the industry". Bwahahaha - we have a new US Treasury Secretary who practically wrote the book on hedge funds, yet they are meeting to learn about them.

Treasury to meet hedge funds to gauge exposure
http://msnbc.msn.com/id/14016211/

The US Treasury is to convene its first formal meetings with hedge funds and investment banks in coming months in a sign that it wants to learn more about the possible risks of lenders' exposure to the industry.

The move is a sign of a belief at Treasury that efforts to understand the impact of hedge funds on the economy should focus on assessing counterparty risks. Much of the focus of US lawmakers in recent months has been on how to regulate the industry.


snip>

Emil Henry, Treasury's assistant secretary for financial institutions, said his department held meetings two weeks ago with officials at the SEC and other regulators to lay the groundwork for up to four meetings with the private sector between now and the end of the year.

He told the Financial Times: "We'd like to understand in this process how much information is coming through counterparties, how diligent are the counterparties being and how clear or opaque is the information that's coming up indirectly through the counterparties."

Mr Henry, a 20-year veteran of Wall Street before joining Treasury nine months ago, said hedge funds were generally estimated to manage assets totaling about $1,500bn. But they represented three times that amount "on a leveraged basis, in terms of deployed capital".

more...



But hey, whatever happened to Gary Aguirre, that former SEC lawyer who was fired for trying to do his job? I find it hard to believe the the President's Working Group on Financial Markets and the US Treasury are this involved because they are worried about the average Joe being taken in by some hedge funds. Isn't that the job of someone like Spitzer? Nope, I ain't buying it. I think these folks are worried about some very real and serious "systemic risks" (to use the Greenspinism) and that the entire Ponzi scheme is at risk of being exposed for what it is and collapsing. But hey, that's just my 2 cents worth of :tinfoilhat:



edit to add....oh look here's a mention of Gary Aguirre

Hedge Fund Scrutiny Increases as Senate Considers Regulation
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=aTufROg6NcnQ&refer=home

snip>

SEC rules requiring hedge fund managers register and submit to random inspections were struck down by a federal appeals court last month, giving Congress more reason to consider regulation. The SEC last week called Morgan Stanley Chief Executive Officer John Mack in for questioning in a probe of insider trading at Pequot Capital Management Inc., a $7 billion hedge fund.

``There shouldn't be a large, dark void there where there's no knowledge on the part of the important regulators like the SEC about what's happening,'' said Senator Paul Sarbanes, a Maryland Democrat who sits on the Senate Banking Committee and co-wrote the Sarbanes-Oxley corporate-governance law in 2002. Lawmakers ``need to have some sense'' of what hedge funds are doing, he said in an interview.

Gary Aguirre, a former SEC lawyer who was fired Sept. 1, fed concerns over hedge fund regulation when he told a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing June 28 that his supervisors stymied an investigation into allegations of insider trading at Westport, Connecticut-based Pequot. Aguirre said he was denied permission to question Mack, 60, who briefly served as Pequot's chairman before joining Morgan Stanley in June 2005.

Escaped Oversight

Hedge funds have escaped oversight because they are private investment pools open mainly to institutions and individuals with at least $1 million to invest. Regulators are becoming more concerned because of the risks these funds may pose to financial markets.

[54anickel]

32. Tax Cuts May Come At a Price, Study Says

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/07/25/AR2006072501543.html

The federal government will need to either cut spending or raise taxes down the road to pay for extending President Bush's recent tax cuts, the Treasury Department said in a report released yesterday, dismissing the idea popular with many Republicans that such sacrifices can be avoided.

The Treasury report did not openly address the much-debated contention of many conservative analysts that the tax cuts will boost economic growth so much over time that the resulting increase in taxes paid will offset much or all of the initial loss in government revenue -- that tax cuts can essentially pay for themselves.

The report acknowledged the debate delicately, saying "the issue of how, or even if, these policies need to be financed remains a source of discussion among economists."

But the Treasury's view reflects "a recognition the federal government has to finance the tax relief" to avoid a rise in government debt, Robert Carroll, deputy assistant secretary for tax analysis, said in an interview.

more...

[Roland99]

35. They're going to need to do more than just one or the other.

Hate to repeat myself but the WaPo reported on this a year ago:

Almost Unnoticed, Bipartisan Budget Anxiety
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/05/17/AR2005051701238.html

[UpInArms]

36. Ford reportedly plans more job cuts (34,000 cuts were planned)

http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/26/news/companies/ford/

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Ford Motor Co. may announce deeper job cuts as it tries to trim more costs in the face of a disappointing second-quarter loss.

The nation's No. 2 automaker had already reported 4,000 salaried staff cuts and plans to trim 30,000 hourly jobs as it closes 14 factories in the coming years.

But on July 20, when Ford (Charts) reported a loss of 3 cents a share from continuing operations rather than a profit of 14 cents a share forecast by Wall Street, Chairman and CEO Bill Ford said cost-cutting plans would be accelerated.

The Detroit News reported Wednesday that high-level Ford employees are being told that additional steps under consideration include further headcount reductions, cuts to employee benefits and additional plant actions.

...more...

[Roland99]

38. To go along with its *$9 billion* expansion in Mexico?

:mad:

[specimenfred1984]

39. Only Question Today is "Will the Fed Pump"?

The beige book is an example of "Fed speaks, Fed pumps". They pumped/bought the hell out of the S&P late yesterday, enough to push it up to its daily downtrend line.

Todays price is staying just below the downtrend line, a classic bear pattern. However, this means nothing with the current corrupt and regular interventions in the markets.

It's a roll of the dice. My guesses are: a short at 1272 on the Sept S&P futures or a long at 1275. Therein lies the boring and simple mind of a S&P trader.

[Roland99]

41. 12:10pm - Turning into pony time?

DJIA 11,108.44 +4.73 +0.04%
Nasdaq 2,069.34 -4.56 -0.22%
S&P 500 1,269.09 +0.21 +0.02%
Dow Util 435.00 +1.27 +0.29%
NYSE 8,155.22 +5.45 +0.07%
AMEX 1,937.37 +6.12 +0.32%
Russell 2000 694.17 -3.27 -0.47%
Semcond 398.40 +2.23 +0.56%
Gold future 631.50 +0.80 +0.13%
30-Year Bond 5.10% -0.02 -0.41%
10-Year Bond 5.04% -0.02 -0.41%

[Roland99]

42. 2:00pm - Ponies gathering a little steam

DJIA 11,126.13 +22.42 +0.20%
Nasdaq 2,075.67 +1.77 +0.09%
S&P 500 1,270.90 +2.02 +0.16%
Dow Util 435.22 +1.49 +0.34%
NYSE 8,171.77 +22.00 +0.27%
AMEX 1,944.98 +13.73 +0.71%
Russell 2000 697.04 -0.40 -0.06%
Semcond 399.93 +3.76 +0.95%
Gold future 635.00 +4.30 +0.68%
30-Year Bond 5.11% -0.01 -0.23%
10-Year Bond 5.05% -0.02 -0.32%

[Roland99]

43. Fed Beige Book finds slower growth, inflation pressures

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B8D3DE03A%2D45C9%2D4F63%2D9BC8%2D92356388B609%7D&dateid=38924%2E5836054282%2D879567321&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Upward pressure from energy and other inputs is persisting, despite reports that the pace of growth in the U.S. economy has slowed, according to a survey of current economic conditions released by the Fed in Wednesday. All 12 Fed districts said their economies were still growing in the last two weeks of June and the first two weeks of July, but there were "numerous individual reports pointing to evidence that the pace of growth has slowed." Six Fed districts reported a decline in the overall rate of growth in their regions. At the same time, pressure on prices from high price of gasoline persisted and in some cases increased. End of Story

All three major indices dipped into the negative immediately following the news but are recovering. DJIA now positive and S&P virtually unchanged.

[Roland99]

44. Oh, n/m that slow growth. Markets back to daily highs. WHEEE!!

[Roland99]

45. Anyone spot any huge volume transactions right at 2pm? Another Pump?

Right after the beige book report came out, the markets dropped quickly to the negative but now we're at daily highs and still rising.

Another Fed Pump in progress?

[Roland99]

46. I don't know what normal volumes look like but here's a bit of info >>>>>

Advancing 620,189,000 727,831,000
Declining 510,468,000 679,671,000
Unchanged 16,257,000 8,661,000
Total: 1,146,914,000 1,416,163,000

7/26/2006 2:08:00 PM



Advancing 619,526,000 725,231,000
Declining 510,977,000 680,184,000
Unchanged 18,374,000 12,567,000
Total: 1,148,877,000 1,417,982,000

7/26/2006 2:09:00 PM



Advancing 592,954,000 734,040,000
Declining 551,537,000 682,203,000
Unchanged 15,048,000 6,710,000
Total: 1,159,539,000 1,422,953,000

7/26/2006 2:11:00 PM



Advancing 606,507,000 857,968,000
Declining 538,598,000 540,443,000
Unchanged 17,951,000 29,301,000
Total: 1,163,056,000 1,427,712,000

7/26/2006 2:12:00 PM



Advancing 621,165,000 885,326,000
Declining 545,388,000 529,148,000
Unchanged 11,742,000 30,605,000
Total: 1,178,295,000 1,445,079,000

7/26/2006 2:16:00 PM

[stop the bleeding]

47. Here is my take on the enthusiasm

Economy is slowing = no rate hike/this coupled with Ben's "dovish" comments from last week. Markets see this as good news.

Same thing for GM big losses but when you factor in their costs of buying out employees and their outlook along with their liquid assets makes it Lemonade out of Lemons and think that is just what happened after 2pm

Oil just closed at 74.50 or 74.60 so go figure.

[Roland99]

48. Wouldn't a slowing economy mean less corporate earnings?

And isn't that an increase in the close of the price of oil (lending further pressure on consumers to spend more on fuel than other items)?

[stop the bleeding]

51. Yes and yes

the market is what it is - nothing makes sense I just try to see opportunity

Had a Call play today, 20 contracts on APA - so I don't care why the market moved the way it did- just as long as it keeps on moving then I am happy.


2 days in a row of going long and no Puts even though I could have hammered some housing stocks:evilgrin:

[Nickster]

52. Here's my unqualified prediction. They are going to get all excited and

expect a pause in the rate hiking, pump up the market for a few days, then it will all come crashing back down when the fed goes for another "surprise" rate hike. I don't think the rate hikes will end any time soon. The fed needs to keep the interest rates on Treasury notes nice and inviting for all of the debt we need to sell to foreign investors.

[specimenfred1984]

49. 3 Pumps so Far, But They're Small in the S&P

The suspicious pump I saw happened before the report, at 1:48. Somebody bought around 10,000 S&Ps.

Now the trading action is erratic. It usually is erratic for the 1st 30 minutes after a Fed announcement. I haven't seen any tell-tale 20,000 volume spikes though, just three 15000 spikes. With the daily S&P having broken through the downtrend line, my inclination is to the buy side but, if 1275 is broken down, I'm out.

The S&P is so full of crap these last few years, it's basically just gambling on any given day. The only difference is that a speculator can get out of a trade fast and only lose a small portion of the money that was risked. Trends are useless in this corrupt environment, as are most technical indicators.

I do not see any direct evidence of big bank intervention so far today, which makes me think they may be about to dump their longs of the last couple of days.

[stop the bleeding]

50. Has today seen a good amount of volume

cause this is starting to look like a follow through day and if it is on good volume, well you know.

[stop the bleeding]

53. *snark* the DJIA is heading for an even close

so much for that follow through day.

*snark*

[UpInArms]

54. closing up the shop and 'bye for a couple of weeks!

Dow 11,102.51 -1.20 (-0.01%)
Nasdaq 2,070.46 -3.44 (-0.17%)
S&P 500 1,268.40 -0.48 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 5.036 -0.029 (-0.57%)

NYSE Volume 2,666,930,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,116,778,000

In what was shaping up to be three-day winning streak for stocks, amid generally good earnings news and more signs of a potential pause in Fed tightening, petered out into the close as the allure of locking in some profits following a two-rally was a bit too much for the bulls. The major averages closed just below the flat line to finish relatively unchanged.

Late in the day, the Fed's Beige Book showed that 6 of the Fed's 12 districts "pointing to evidence that the pace of growth has slowed," further validating that monetary tightening has run its course (for now) and lending credence to the likelihood that policy makers will not raise rates at the next FOMC meeting on August 8th. To wit, fed funds futures, which were pricing in a 51% chance of another rate hike, are now pricing in only a 43% probability. The 10-yr note closed up 8 ticks, pushing the yield to 5.02%.

However, heading into what is expected to be the biggest day of earnings ever, most eyes were focused on, what else, corporate profits. Among the most notable news items Wednesday was a significant upside surprise on the top and bottom line from General Motors (GM 31.91 +1.25).

The Dow component surged to a nine-month high, but that was still not enough to offset a Q2 disappointment from Amazon.com (AMZN 26.17 -7.42), which sent shares tumbling 22% to a multi-year low and weighed heavily on the struggling Consumer Discretionary sector.

Faring even worse and turning in the worst performance for a second straight day was Industrials. Aside from follow-through selling in United Parcel Service (UPS 68.00 -3.80) -- yesterday's biggest blue chip victim -- a 4.6% sell-off in Dow component Boeing (BA 79.86 -3.89), after it posted its first quarterly loss in three years and reduced its FY06 EPS guidance, was the biggest drag this time around. Adding insult to injury for the sector that also turned negative on the year was an earnings shortfall at Norfolk Southern (NSC 40.35 -4.90), which plunged 8% to a nine-month low and weighed heavily on a transportation group already reeling from a rise in fuel costs.

Even with oil prices closing off their highs of the day and below $74 per barrel, though, Energy turned in another solid performance. The sector got a big boost following record Q2 earnings from ConocoPhillips (COP 68.60 +1.15), whose 65% year/year profit growth plays into our Overweight rating on the sector, and lent credence to Energy's ability to fuel double-digit earnings growth (13-14%) on the S&P 500 for a 12th straight quarter. ExxonMobil (XOM 66.60 +0.86), which hit a new historic high, will report its quarterly results on Thursday. DJ30 -1.20 NASDAQ -3.44 SP500 -0.48 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1642/1382/2.11 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1480/1805/1.81 bln

3:30 pm : Indices remain poised to chalk up a third straight day of gains, lending some conviction behind the argument that valuations are already at levels that assume slower earnings growth. Be that as it may, such optimism is fading with only 30 minutes to go in the trading day with the major averages struggling to stay positive. Energy (+2.0%) continues to provide the bulk of support for the broader market, as a record quarter from ConocoPhillips (COP 69.26 +1.81) has helped fellow Integrated Oil & Gas names like ExxonMobil (XOM 66.93 +1.19), which reports tomorrow morning, Chevron (CVX 67.78 +0.83) and Marathon Oil (MRO 90.73 +1.74) all hit historic highs. DJ30 +20.54 NASDAQ +3.02 SP500 +2.25 XOI +1.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1435/1556/1.80 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1297/1946/1.53 bln

I'm going to go away and see how other people are thinking - will be gone for a couple of weeks - so all the rest of you are going to have to chip in and tell the world what is going on.

If I get the opportunity to check in on the thread, I will - but at this point it looks like I won't really have a computer :(

:hi:

See you all when I get home!

[Roland99]

55. See ya, UIA! Tomorrow will my last day here regularly for a while.

Heading out on vacation on Fri. Back about 10 days later

:hi:

[54anickel]

56. Wow, it's gonna get pretty lonesome around here with both of you

heading out. Hope you learn lots while you're out there. Let's hope some of the folks you meet are beginning to think for themselves (if they hadn't been before). I am seeing some small hopeful signs of an awakening in my neck of the woods. Just hope it starts catching on big time.

Have a good time UIA. :hi:

[UpInArms]

57. thanks for being out there, 54anickel -

I do believe I am really suffering the BFEE burnout - am just too freakin' weary - every day in every way there are just more examples of how they have turned our government into a destruction machine for the citizen.

I hope that my travels help me to see a change on the ground - maybe being just in my little corner of the world has made me too jaded.

:grouphug:

I shall miss you and all of the other marketeers - take care - will be back when I'm back

:hi: