Amazon rainforest 'could become a desert' (next year)

[Barrett808]

Amazon rainforest 'could become a desert'
And that could speed up global warming with 'incalculable consequences', says alarming new research
Geoffrey Lean and Fred Pearce

The vast Amazon rainforest is on the brink of being turned into desert, with catastrophic consequences for the world's climate, alarming research suggests. And the process, which would be irreversible, could begin as early as next year.

Studies by the blue-chip Woods Hole Research Centre, carried out in Amazonia, have concluded that the forest cannot withstand more than two consecutive years of drought without breaking down.

Scientists say that this would spread drought into the northern hemisphere, including Britain, and could massively accelerate global warming with incalculable consequences, spinning out of control, a process that might end in the world becoming uninhabitable.

The alarming news comes in the midst of a heatwave gripping Britain and much of Europe and the United States. Temperatures in the south of England reached a July record of 36.3C on Tuesday. And it comes hard on the heels of a warning by an international group of experts, led by the Eastern Orthodox "pope" Bartholomew, last week that the forest is rapidly approaching a "tipping point" that would lead to its total destruction. ...The immense forest contains 90 billion tons of carbon, enough in itself to increase the rate of global warming by 50 per cent.

Dr Nepstead expects "mega-fires" rapidly to sweep across the drying jungle. With the trees gone, the soil will bake in the sun and the rainforest could become desert.

(more)

http://www.climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=58635

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

1. I always wanted to go to Mars.

[Systematic Chaos]

2. Oxygen? OXYGEN?

We don't NEED no STEEEEENKING OXYGEN!!!!

:cry:

[Canuckistanian]

13. I've always been rather fond of oxygen

Considering that it's kept me alive for all these years, I'd be somewhat dismayed to see it fall out of favor.

[Wednesdays]

39. Sure we need oxygen

It will be the next invaluable commodity for corporations to market.
</sarcasm>

[KamaAina]

50. I don't care who makes the laws, as long as I control the oxygen supply!

It was science fiction when he wrote it... :eyes:

[MrPrax]

3. Grim...

"... When Dr Dan Nepstead started the experiment in 2002 ­ by covering a chunk of rainforest the size of a football pitch with plastic panels to see how it would cope without rain ­ he surrounded it with sophisticated sensors, expecting to record only minor changes.

The trees managed the first year of drought without difficulty. In the second year, they sunk their roots deeper to find moisture, but survived. But in year three, they started dying. Beginning with the tallest the trees started to come crashing down, exposing the forest floor to the drying sun.
....
As we report today on pages 28 and 29, the Amazon now appears to be entering its second successive year of drought, raising the possibility that it could start dying next year. The immense forest contains 90 billion tons of carbon, enough in itself to increase the rate of global warming by 50 per cent."
____________

I thought stuff like this was overly alarmist 5 years...I don't think that anymore.

[Tellurian]

42. Guaranteed, on the 3rd yr, the roots found an unsustainable environment,

rock and ledge. An oil/natural gas friendly environment for sure.

[walkon]

4. That is mighty bad news.

Indications are that global climate change is gaining momemtum like a locomative leaving the station. I think God, he stole the handle and the train it won't stop going no way to slow down.

[Gloria]

5. Gore will have to update his book....the second edition should

be even more depressing than the version out now....

[WhiteTara]

26. well all those dead trees can be paper

for it. Actually, Al should have used hemp or kanaf paper to be thoroughly green in his word. Can you imagine how much paper is being used to make all those shiny books?

Too bad. Al had a real opportunity, I wonder why no one in his outfit thought of that.
:shrug: :cry: for all of us.

[creeker]

69. Yes--Grew Kanaf in a test plot a few years ago---

It would produce all the pulp for paper we need. The problem is getting investors to invest in a plant to process it,and lining up farmers to produce it at the same time.
Maybe in time. I choose Kanaf over Hemp because Hemp is "The Devils Weed! and would be killed by the anti good time people in spite of the difference between Hemp and Smoking types of Cannabis.You know,the type that "suffers on Earth so to enjoy "Paradise".
They have to suffer thru life so they think everyone else should also!
my rant,

[Minstrel Boy]

6. Just when I thought

I couldn't feel worse.

[Barrett808]

7. Yeah, I haven't been this depressed sonce the UNEP report on the oceans

Which was, oh, about a month ago.

Seriously, that's half the world's species. It will be the largest single extinction event since the asteroid strike 65 million years ago.

[gasperc]

24. Iraq, ME crisis will be pimples, Global warming will overwhelm us

[Barrett808]

27. Yes, the "War on Terror" will be a forgotten footnote in a few years

There are a number of "existential threats", but the biggest are Climate Change and Peak Oil.

[anotherdrew]

36. man has become such a hateful ignorant beast we deserve to be wiped out

too bad so much else will go along with us

[faithnotgreed]

48. i definitely agree anotherdrew

though i will say that in general humans have always been full of greed and arrogance (just as there have been many who work for peace and equality)

there are just so many more of us now and by nature all the resources that we consume are finite but the ugly pursuit of power and things ever marches on

[mom cat]

8. We have to go into emergenvy level conservation now! All

of us. No excuces!
What changes will you make to save mother earth?

[creeker]

68. I will continue to farm in a non organic manner,thus feeding the world.

If we want to save the Tropical Rain Forests we HAVE to produce more in the U.S.A.Producing more will lessen the need to cut down the forest(which is occurring at an alarming rate).

[SheilaT]

9. What most people do not realize

is that climate change can occur with astonishing rapidity. It's not the slow, gradual thing we used to think of. In a very few years something tips the balance and glaciers grow dramatically, or shrink to nothing, deserts are suddenly where it used to be a temperate forest or grassland.

We know that the Sahara desert was a lush, fertile grassland about ten thousand years ago. I've never read anything about just how quickly it became desert, but I speculate that it happened very, very quickly, within no more than two or three generations, and that's why Egyptian mythology had the afterlife to the west. It happened so quickly, and at least one group of people who fled to the Nile River Valley, put the memory of that former lush fertility into myth and their stories of the better world to come from what had been.

[ChickMagic]

20. I saw a program about that

What turned the Sahara to desert was an axial tilt of 1 degree and it happened
very rapidly. Just that 1 degree exposed it to enought sunlight to decimate the
forest.

[L. Coyote]

35. Wrongo

"...an axial tilt of 1 degree ..."

Pure BS. Take off the tin hat and read some science.

[Ravenseye]

37. I've read that too though

http://www.climateark.org/articles/1999/chorbit.htm

So this report by National Geographic News about the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research is total BS?

*That shouldn't sound snarky, that should sound inquisitive...just saying this cause that question might read as snarky*

[ChickMagic]

40. Thank you, Ravenseye

I saw it on a National Geographic program (I think) and
marked it for further study. I've worked in the scientific
field since the early 80's after I got out of school. Strata
indicate that the slight tilt happens from time to time and
can drastically change climatic patterns. I'm hoping we're
not due for another because our climate is already a mess.

[Ravenseye]

45. Yeah from what i'm reading it's hardly BS

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

http://www.homepage.montana.edu/~geol445/hyperglac/time1/milankov.htm

http://www.agu.org/revgeophys/overpe00/node6.html

http://muller.lbl.gov/papers/sciencespectra.htm

[ChickMagic]

46. These are terrific resources

Thank you very much. :hi:

[derby378]

54. Message to L. Coyote...

ginbarn is passionate about all life on this planet. She's one of the sweetest people you could ever hope to meet. But she's got you beat on the science angle. Axial tilt created the Sahara. Overfarming may have exacerbated it somewhat, but it certainly didn't cause it.

Next time you want to challenge my wife on hard science, get your shit correct before you open your mouth.

DU - apply directly to the forehead
:banghead:
DU - apply directly to the forehead
:banghead:
DU - apply directly to the forehead
:banghead:

[ChickMagic]

57. Aw....

derby loves me! My knight in shining armor. I love him too! :loveya:

[TheWatcher]

71. And exactly what facts or science to have to offer other than personal

insults?

My guess is none.

Shut your fucking mouth if you have nothing constructive to offer.

[smirkymonkey]

63. It seems to me that it is changing at an accelerated pace and is

actually gaining momentum. I wonder how long before we'll reach the tipping point where the environment deteriorates faster than we can find ways to keep up with it.

[tavalon]

10. Just from the brief synopsis of the study here

It doesn't appear to be a well designed study. Full deprivation versus decreased water supply. That said, I'm not disagreeing with the global climate change problem, that's an irrefutable fact. I just don't think this is a well designed experiment.

[Realityhack]

55. Excelent post.

Its nice to see someone trying to bring some intelegent analylisis and balance to the table.

[alfredo]

11. I need a stiff drink.

[hatrack]

12. And here I thought that I was DU's Debbie Downer!

What a relief - or not - to find out otherwise.

I can't think of anything comparable except for some of the things I've been posting on the acidification of the world's oceans.

[Mabus]

14. and thank you for posting them

I check both the environment and science forums for your posts. You're a legend in my household.

[Barrett808]

28. My queer friends call me "Desdemona Despair"

A badge of honor I wear proudly.

[Lisa]

47. and I thought I was a contender for the "Debbie Downer" position too!

You know it's bad when hardened climatologists and ecologists turn to you and say, "Shut up Lisa, you're bumming us out!" (This was after I was showing them my latest fire risk models ... and I hadn't even said a word yet about temperature-enhanced soil CO2 outgassing!)

[Lars39]

65. hatrack, thank you for all the work you've been doing posting

those articles in the environment forum.
I don't venture down there much 'cause it scares the living shyte out of me, but I do catch the threads on 'Latest'. :hi:

[progressoid]

15. Hello! Is this thing on?

Time to wake up Earthlings. Your planet is dying.

[donkeyotay]

30. But we're too busy having a war or a crusade or a rapture

or whatever the heck it is. Destroying the sustainability of the planet just isn't a priority for us now. Call it bunker mentality. The people living in the bunkers believe they will survive, and besides, although they believe in Armageddon, they don't believe in global warming.

Tough tacos and good luck with the kids!

[Megahurtz]

59. Yup, so busy trying to hurry-up Armageddon

because they think that if all it gets worse faster, "The Rapture" will save them.:eyes:

Sorry assholes, soon you'll realize you'll all be stuck here in your own mess with us,
and we won't be very happy about it.:grr:

[jgmiller]

16. Deforestation is a problem

However as someone else pointed out the study seems to be a little flawed. Also while I agree that we don't want to lose the Amazon everyone has to realize that these things are not happening in a vaccum. We're not killing the planet, the planet is adjusting to the problems we are causing. Yes these adjustments may kill a lot of us (not good) however that's part of the system. Glaciers melt, oceans rise, less airable land to support a population which hopefully reduces greenhouses emissions. As the oceans rise evaporation increases which increases rainfall which slowly cools the atmosphere which of course causes glaicers to grow again. Now of course none of this happens in 5 years.

This planet has been spinning around and surviving for billions of years we can't kill it. We can kill ourselves we can kill lots of species but guess what that's happened before and the rock keeps spinning.

[Minstrel Boy]

17. "the rock keeps spinning"

I don't believe anyone's worried that it won't.

Complex life is dependant upon conditions remaining within a relatively narrow band. The planet's "adjustment" may mean conditions no longer do.

[Barrett808]

29. Welcome to DU, jgmiller! And see my post #25

:hi:

[midnight armadillo]

31. Things could get pretty grim

To quote the Wikipedia:

251 million years ago - at the Permian-Triassic transition (the Permian-Triassic extinction event) about 96% of all marine species went extinct. This catastrophe was Earth's worst mass extinction, killing 53% of marine families, 84% of marine genera, and an estimated 70% of land species (including plants, insects, and vertebrate animals.)

[AlienGirl]

33. I am rather attached to having a tool-using sapient species on this rock

Humans may not be the best, but we're all we've got. If humanity manages to kill itself (taking with it the great apes, many of the cetaceans, and a host of other species) it would leave us in a terrible mess.

Tucker

[anotherdrew]

38. can't kill it, true, be we sure can kill ourselves, wake the hell up

time to drop the pollyanna bullshit and commit to doing whatever it takes. We need trillions of dollars and to change the way of life of everyone on the planet, nothing less can work.

[dipsydoodle]

18. See also similar thread from Monday

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=115x61155

[Hosnon]

19. If this happens, I have no problem with executing everyone who claimed

nothing was wrong.

[Coventina]

21. It won't matter. It just means they die a few days before we do.

Humans are the dumbest species ever.
Congratulations on ruining the earth for yourselves and every other creature.

[Hosnon]

22. Works for me...so long as I get to see them die before me. And why are

you talking in third person about humans? Are you some kind of humanoid ape/evolved dolphin?

[Coventina]

23. No, I include myself. I deserve to die along with everyone else.

It just makes me sad that we apparently are going to take every other living thing along with us.

[Barrett808]

25. We'll take most of the biosphere with us, but not every species

The next geological epoch will be populated by the descendants of those species which survive this epoch. As Tim Flannery observes, the cockroaches of the Carboniferous were a meter long.

So yes, humans are a globally destructive force on par with the Chicxulub asteroid strike. But something will survive us. I suspect the experiment in tool-using intelligence won't be repeated on this world again.

[zara]

32. This no longer seems funny. But if life is a tragedy or comedy,

Might as well laugh at our mammalian stupidity.

[FujiZ1]

34. The solution is simple you silly enviro wackos

Just put freakin' sprinklers in the Amazon. I can't believe some of you crazy liberal people. :eyes:

[Deja Q]

44. LOL! Welcome to DU.

Putting in the smiley :sarcasm: would help. :)

[pokercat999]

56. I mean really, the

oceans are FULL of water....geez

:toast: :toast: :toast:

[Midlodemocrat]

41. This is absolutely horrific news.

What will it take for the sheeple to wake up and realize that we are killing the planet and everything on it?

[Deja Q]

43. Why is nobody planting seeds?

As for "uninhabitable", I doubt it. This is ultimately more scaremongering.

There's always a way. If people would stop being greedy and selfish.

[tinrobot]

49. You need water for seeds to grow.

If there's a drought... no water.

[goforit]

51. Viva los arboles.

This is just so sad.

[gristy]

52. This does not look like science to me

I wouldn't draw any conclusions from that short article.

[knitter4democracy]

53. Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, not "pope"

I know, small point, but they should get that right.

Scary. This is much worse than we'd thought.

[Megahurtz]

58. This is SO sad.

:cry: I never even dreamed something like this would happen in my lifetime.:cry:

[Barrett808]

60. Amazon Winter?

When I was in college 20 years ago, I took an elective class on Nuclear Winter and Global Climate Change. Iirc, we were discussing about 100 gigatons of carbon injected into the upper atmosphere by burning cities.

If the whole Amazon rainforest burns at once, we could expect a smoke cloud on a similar scale. Would the world be sheathed in a blanket of atmospheric soot? That could turn out to be more immediately lethal than the climate change effects.

[AlphaCentauri]

61. how could I stop polluting the earth?

I can't stop driving my car, I'm living attach to it

[genieroze]

62. OMFG!

[superconnected]

64. As if the rainforest hasn't seen 2 years of drout in a row before.

This is BS.

I totally believe in Global Warming BTW. But this is ca-ca.

[Dark]

66. It never mentions that the Rainforest is in the midst of a drought!

I didn't see anything about that in the article. It only talks about heatwaves in the U.S. and Britain, which are completely DIFFERENT climates than the Amazon.

Not saying that the rainforest doesn't deserver protection, but either this IS purely alarmism, or I missed something. . .

[Solon]

70. The Amazon hasn't had significant rainfall in almost 2 years...

Scientists know NOW, that the trees of the forest can survive a drought as long as two years, but not 3, they will soon die next year if the drought isn't broken, and when that happens, deserfication happens, and no amount of "protecting" will help us save the forest.

[opihimoimoi]

67. What Fools we Humans are...Nature gave us Bio Mass to contend with CO2

Vegetation eats CO2.

We Humans make CO2 as a Byproduct/Waste and release it into the atmosphere...by the millions of tons...every minute of everyday...

every day we lose more vegewtation when we pave more roads, parking lots, home roofs, building roofs, etc etc all over the world.

Now we are killing a giant forest...the Amazon Forest will go the way of the Sahara Forest...this forest is different...its large and will affect the Weather adversely...

1. we add to the CO2 Level

and

2. we kill the CO2 eating plants, trees, etc.

We have a Species that is killing itself through GROSS IGNORANCE....we even select Leaders who are GROSSLY IGNORANT...leading our Nation at this most crucial of Times.

Dammmmn

Come, we go drink.

[rayofreason]

72. This article is such crap.

And to back that statement up -

1. The article refers twice to "Dr. Nepstead" - They get his name wrong. It is "Nepstad". Sloppy reporting like that should be the first clue that the writers of the article are bozos.

http://www.whrc.org/about_us/whos_who/CV/dnepstad.htm


2. Want to see what Nepstad actually found?

The experiment - http://www.whrc.org/southamerica/drought_sim/index.htm

The findings - http://www.whrc.org/southamerica/drought_sim/results.htm

Compare the first line here "We have been impressed by the great tolerance that our forest presented in the face of the severe drought we created." to what this ludicrous article says.

"Studies by the blue-chip Woods Hole Research Centre, carried out in Amazonia, have concluded that the forest cannot withstand more than two consecutive years of drought without breaking down.

Scientists say that this would spread drought into the northern hemisphere, including Britain, and could massively accelerate global warming with incalculable consequences, spinning out of control, a process that might end in the world becoming uninhabitable"

What a bunch of fear-mongering nonsense, not based in science at all. "Scientists say.." - What garbage, trying to imply that any real scientist would make such unsubstantiated and outrageous statements. It reminds me of the creationists who are always trying to say that evolution is "controversial" and that many "scientists" reject it.

The people who wrote and published this garbage should be ashamed of themselves, and they should apologize to Nepstad.

[Barrett808]

73. Wow, thanks for the find!

Although I wouldn't be quite so sanguine about the conclusions of this experiment:

As the forest becomes shorter and its canopy more open, compromising its remarkable resistance to fire, it is clear that drought in tandem with fire could swiftly push the tall, dense rainforests of the region towards savanna scrub. The amount of carbon that could be released to the atmosphere by this savannization process is significant—equivalent to several years of worldwide carbon emissions —and could accelerate climate change processes already in place.

This seems to form the substance of the Independent's report.