As Rumors Swirl, Somalia Seems Set for Full-Scale War

[Robbien]

By JEFFREY GETTLEMAN
Published: July 27, 2006

BAIDOA, SOMALIA, July 27 — In the past few days, phantom troops have reportedly flooded across the border from Ethiopia. Mysterious planes have landed in Mogadishu. Young gunmen in a kaleidoscope of camouflage are cruising the streets all over this country, their true allegiance one big question mark.

But in this land of secrets, one thing is clear: the two powers to reckon with in Somalia — the Islamic clerics who rule Mogadishu and the internationally-recognized transitional government confined to Baidoa — are headed on a collision course toward a full-scale war. And this time the crisis may spill far beyond Somalia’s borders.

Ethiopia and Eritrea, bitter enemies, are apparently already arming the two different sides and threatening to ignite ethnic and religious tensions across the Horn of Africa. Many people fear that if a major war breaks out in Somalia, Muslim tribes in Ethiopia’s deserts will rise up and challenge the Christian leadership; Islamists in Mogadishu will storm down the coast toward Kenya; Ethiopia and Eritrea will resume their costly battles; and countries like Sudan and Egypt, which have weighed in before, will weigh in again.

In anticipation of all this, Somalia’s transitional leaders are urging the United Nations to lift an arms embargo. They want more weapons to flow into a place already a free-for-all for armed groups, where an entire generation of young men has grown up with guns in their hands, not pencils.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/07/27/world/africa/27cnd-somalia.html?_r=1&ref=world&oref=slogin

[gizmo1979]

1. Goodthing Bush has made the

world a safer place.God only knows what it would be like without his foreign policy.

[Robbien]

2. Yes, I do believe this war is a direct result of Bush's support

of the Islamic warlords. Whereever the US meddles, bloodshed ensues.

[happyslug]

4. While Bush did NOT help, the real problem was caused by Bismark.

In 1885 Bismark called the Various European Nations with interests in Africa to Berlin to negotiate how to dived up Africa. Bismark had no desire for African Territory (The future Kaiser Wilhelm the Second did but he would NOT obtain power till 1898). While Bismark had no desire for African Territory, he did see Africa as an opportunity to keep his potential European enemies at each other throats. Thus he called a "Peace Conference" to minimize conflict over Africa. The European Powers came and he helped them divide up Africa. Bismark acted as a neutral arbitrator and ended up writing the Political map of present day Africa.

Now, Bismark in 1885 has been compared to the Cocks in a Barnyard going to the local fox to arbitrate how to divide up the Barnyard and the hens. The other nations, like the cocks in the barnyard, forgot the Bismark had an agenda. That agenda did not include parts of Africa, but did include keeping the nations at each other throats.

Now how did Bismark do it? First Bismark knew Geography better than the rest of the European leaders of his time period. Bismark knew lakes and rivers UNITE people for it is easier to go by boat than walking. Bismark also knew Mountains and highlands are natural borders. Third, Bismark knew that people of a single tribe or tribal groups will tend to maintain tribal ties dispute national borders. Bismark thu used all three concepts to divide his enemies over worthless pieces of Africa.

First Bismark proposed Using Rivers as borders. He failed as to the lower Nile (Egypt was to depended on Nile for even the British to agree to use the Lower Nile as a Border) but Bismark was able to use the Upper Blue Nile as a Border in Eastern African, the Congo as a Border in Central Africa and the Zambezi as a border in Southeast Africa. The people on both sides of these rivers view themselves as one people but ended up in two or more colonies of two or more European Nations (and these borders remained after Africa became independent after 1945). Thus you had the French Congo on the opposite Shore of the Belgium Congo. You had the Belgium Congo (Now the Democratic Republic of the Congo, formerly Zaire) extending to the lakes that the Upper Nile flows through. Thus you had people on both sides of the Lakes and the Upper Nile divided between Belgium and British control. This has lead to the present fight throughout this region as the various countries and tribes fight for control based on these un-natural borders.

Now in Western Africa (The former Slave Coast or Gold Coast of Africa) the rivers had been used by Europeans since the 1500s and thus no one wanted to use these Rivers as Borders, here Bismark decided to divide up the tribes if they were spread over more than one River valley (and since this was relatively flat land that was NOT unusual). While the Gold Coast of Africa saw this done the worse case was Somalia. The Somalian people are a tribe of people that live from the deserts of the eastern Horn of Africa. Ethiopia was in the highlands that separated these deserts from the Sahara. Bismark was able to divide this tribe up Four ways. First the interior part to Ethiopia (which was to go to Italy, but Italy failed to take it till 1936). Second the Northern part along the sea to the Italians (From which they were suppose to attack Ethiopia), the third part to Britain along the Indian Ocean (with a smaller fifth part in present day Kenya) and the fourth part, the best port in this part of Africa to the French (The present day Djibouti).

Map of the clans and sub-clans of Somalia:


http://www.un.org/Depts/Cartographic/map/profile/horne.pdf
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/africa/africa_veg_1986.pdf
http://www.reliefweb.int/mapc/afr_ne/reg/hornofafrica.html

A more detail report on the tribes and sub-tribes in East Africa:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/report/1984/GA.htm

[Ghost Dog]

7. The best port north of Zanzibar/Pemba/Tanzania. n/t

[bemildred]

3. Mystery aircraft lands in Mogadishu

A cargo aeroplane said to be loaded with weapons has landed in Mogadishu from Eritrea in violation of a United Nations arms embargo.

Somalia's transitional government said the aircraft that landed on Wednesday was carrying land mines, bombs and guns from Eritrea for the Islamic militia that has taken control of the capital and much of the south of the country.

---

The aircraft's tail carried a flag from Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic that often makes its fleet available for charter.

al Jazeera

[muriel_volestrangler]

5. Somali government close to collapse as Islamists take palace

Somalia's transitional government was close to collapse yesterday after 19 members resigned and its Islamist opponents took over the presidential palace in the capital, Mogadishu, reinforcing their control over more than half of the country.

The developments came just hours after the British Government in London gave its unequivocal backing to the transitional government of President Abdullahi Yusuf and declared that leading members of the Islamist movement should be persona non grata in any future coalition.

The Foreign Office minister Lord Triesman also insisted that the Government had "no knowledge" of Ethiopian troops being in Somalia - despite widespread eyewitness reports of them taking over strategic towns in the country.
...
In a symbolic gesture, the Islamist militias said they would to set up a sharia court inside the presidential palace in Mogadishu. Abdurahman Janaqaw, a senior member of the Islamist militias, said: "It is only fitting that Somalia is ruled from this place".

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/africa/article1201308.ece

[Ghost Dog]

6. Good observation, fine writing, thank you

JEFFREY GETTLEMAN

So, they (we) are now opening his front on the southern flank. We do not represent the legitimat side.