Putting on Game Faces in Connecticut
Ned Lamont, the challenger. (Associated Press); Joseph I. Lieberman, the incumbent. (Ozier Muhammed/The New York Times)
....We’re told that the Lieberman campaign’s internal poll puts him only a few points behind Ned Lamont on the eve of the Senate Democratic primary. It’s private, so we can’t verify the methodology, but that would be an improvement over the direction that Joe’s lousy numbers were trending last week. But it’s certainly not enough to crow about a comeback just yet.
To improve his chances, Mr. Lieberman is spending heavily to saturate the media markets today with two television commercials, and there’s buzz that a new ad may appear before it’s all over. He’s also running a radio ad about Ned Lamont’s one-time membership in an exclusive Greenwich country club. That factoid, combined with Mr. Lieberman’s speech last night accusing Mr. Lamont of lying, just might help drive up the challenger’s negative ratings among voters, which might depress his level of support tomorrow....
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Candidates always put on their game faces in the final hours of a race, but the Lieberman folks seem genuinely optimistic. For all the anger out there over Iraq and President Bush, it remains very difficult for a relatively unknown challenger to oust an incumbent senator, especially one who — notwithstanding claims to the contrary — will have a formidable get-out-the-vote operation tomorrow....It’s also possible that Mr. Lieberman is not playing to win, seeing that as out of reach, but playing to score as high a number as he can. If he can keep a Lamont victory spread to a few percentage points, it might help Mr. Lieberman reduff Democrats who would call on him to drop out after the primary. Mr. Lieberman has said he will run as an independent if he loses the nomination to Mr. Lamont; if he loses tomorrow by 10 points or more, the calls for him to drop out will be greater than if he loses in a squeaker.
Mr. Lamont has been mostly out of the public eye since early this morning. His spokeswoman says he’s making phone calls to 20 prominent, undecided Democrats. While those 20 names were not shared with us, it’s likely they’re the sort who can move real votes in a primary.
As my colleague Nicholas Confessore points out, Mr. Lamont’s focus on undecided Democrats indicates that the challenger’s campaign doesn’t think it needs to do much more to excite its hand-core voters....
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