It is well-known to political analysts and strategists that Democrats may make significant gains in the House and Senate in the November elections. And now a leading analyst of state legislatures says that this apparent pro-Democratic trend almost certainly will percolate down to the thousands of contests this year for state legislative seats.
“All of the indicators are that this is more of a challenging year for Republicans than Democrats,” Tim Storey, a senior fellow at the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), told CQPolitics.com Wednesday. “The Democrats have the wind at their backs right now for control of states.”
Storey said that one factor working in the Democrats’ favor is the historic trend of the opposition party netting state legislative seats in midterm elections. In the past sixty years, the party controlling the White House has suffered a net loss in state legislative seats in nearly every midterm election. The only exception was in 2002, when Republicans made seat gains in the balloting that followed the 2001 terrorist attacks.
But that aberration certainly will not be repeated this year. Democratic wins in special elections this year might presage larger party gains in November. In the first six months of 2006, Democrats won 11 of the 13 special elections that resulted in a change in partisan control of the district.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/cq/20060824/pl_cq_politics/democraticbreezebeingfeltinfightforstatelegislatures