Hurricane watch on S. Fla.; direct hit by Ernesto possible

[Scurrilous]

South Florida is under a hurricane watch this morning and forecasters are predicting a direct strike by Ernesto -- as a hurricane -- on the upper Florida Keys and Miami-Dade and Broward counties by Tuesday night.

<snip>

"South Florida is under a hurricane watch this morning and forecasters are predicting a direct strike by Ernesto -- as a hurricane -- on the upper Florida Keys and Miami-Dade and Broward counties by Tuesday night.

After eight hurricanes in the last two years, with thousands of people still living under blue tarps, the state's recurring nightmare is recurring today.

The hurricane watch, which covers southern Florida from Deerfield Beach through all of the Keys to the Dry Tortugas, means that hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. A flood watch likely will be issued later today.

The region's weather will start deteriorating Tuesday morning, with blustery conditions and scattered thunderstorms. It will grow progressively worse through the day, with hurricane conditions likely to arrive after midnight Tuesday or later Wednesday morning."

<snip>

"The latest forecast, issued at 5 a.m. EDT, predicted that Ernesto would hit South Florida as a Category 1 hurricane, with sustained winds of about 80 mph. But forecasters reminded residents that intensity is very difficult to predict and Ernesto could be stronger when it arrives."

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15379959.htm

[William769]

1. East coast, West coast

It's gonna be miserable waiting to see who gets it. :scared:

[zeemike]

2. That is actually good news

If it had gotten into the Gulf with it's warm waters it could have been much stronger.

[dxdem]

7. Quote from Forecaster Discussion 15, 0500 EDT

"The intensity forecast remains quite complicated due to possible
land interactions with Cuba. If Ernesto emerges sooner and a little
farther north off the coast of Cuba...then the cyclone will have
more time to strengthen over very warm SSTs of 86-88f and in a very
favorable upper-level flow regime. The SHIPS intensity model is
forecasting near-zero vertical wind shear...just as Ernesto is
approaching the southern Florida Peninsula in 48 hours. These
conditions would favor the possibility of Ernesto becoming a
category 2 or even a category 3 hurricane before making landfall
along the Florida coast."

Eek. My mother called to say she's put her name on the deployment list for DMAT if it's bad.

Note to self...charge the radio batteries...

[flordehinojos]

3. except for wilma who hit during daytime hours, why do hurricanes always

have to strike at night, when the anxiety of listening to tree branches breaking, or falling on your roof, and the wind howling is greater? one of the houses on my street is already boarded up. pretty good planning ahead of time. i wonder if they are going to keep the boards up for the rest of the hurricane season? living with that darkness inside the house is horrible--but certainly nothing to complain about when you still have a house left standing.

[gorbal]

4. Is if really going to veer that far east?

I cannot help but think they should make the bubble go a little bit further west, just in case. I mean, who knows what could happen. Hurricanes suddenly veer off course all the time.

[Jawja]

5. It does

look like the path has moved Eastward. Earlier projections had it soaking most of Georgia, including Atlanta.

[Scurrilous]

6. UPDATE 3-Ernesto pelts Cuba on track to southern Florida

<snip>

"Tropical Storm Ernesto pelted southeastern Cuba with heavy rain but diminished winds on Monday as it moved over the island on a path toward Florida's densely populated Miami-Fort Lauderdale area.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center said Ernesto's winds dropped to 45 mph (75 kph) as it moved onshore in eastern Cuba, down from hurricane strength at 75 mph (124 kph) on Sunday.


But the storm, which had become the year's first hurricane on Sunday, could become a hurricane again over the Florida Straits with winds of about 86 mph (137 kph) as it approaches Florida's southern coast, the center warned.

"It is raining nonstop, but there are no gusts," said Alina Diaz, a United Nations development program worker in Guantanamo, Cuba's eastern-most city."


http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-08-28T135718Z_01_N28303724_RTRIDST_0_WEATHER-ERNESTO-UPDATE-3-PICTURE.XML

[Baclava]

8. The eastward trend is continuing...

The 72 hr mark is getting close for "wait and see" for south FL.

I always prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

As all floridians know...there is no such thing as a "weak" hurricane...prepare to lose power, anyway.

Another hair to the east and it could hit....New York City...or the Carolinas/Virginia...or...

The models have all been wrong on this one.

[varun]

9. The eastward trend has stopped

...it seems from the 2 pm report:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W+gif/174823W_sm.gif

So now its heading straight for Miami!

[Baclava]

10. Yeah - it's slammed into the mountains of Cuba...have to wait & see

See how it reforms over the water....they're doing more than a little guessing at this point.

The next 12hrs will tell more.

[hedgehog]

11. I know that hurricanes are capricious, but this one seems

determined to scare everyone before making up it's mind. So far it's aimed at New Orleans, Tampa, Miami and now Charleston. I realize it's still tracking through Florida, but the 5 PM EDT Monday prediction is that it will travel through as a tropical storm.)

[skids]

12. Yeah this one is dodgy...

Mainly due to skipping off the big islands, but even when it was forming it's center kept hopping around. Not the ideal candidate for the computer models.

[Jacobin]

13. If it goes on this path

over land, the winds shouldn't be horrific, although it can certainly do some damage

[hedgehog]

14. Lots of us who were concerned about New Orleans had better

be concerned about floods in our own neighborhoods instead if Ernesto keeps on this course!