Religion Is Powerful Predictor of Vote in Midterm Elections (Gallup)

[sabra]

http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=24319

Religion Is Powerful Predictor of Vote in Midterm Elections
White, frequent churchgoers much more likely to cast Republican vote

PRINCETON, NJ -- According to recent Gallup research, religion remains a powerful predictor of registered voters' likely voting intentions for the upcoming midterm elections. A Gallup aggregate of interviews with more than 5,000 registered voters conducted in June, July, and August of this year demonstrates that frequency of church attendance splits white voters into two groups -- one highly likely to be voting Republican this fall, and the other highly likely to be voting Democratic. Meanwhile, non-whites, regardless of religiosity, remain highly Democratic in voting orientation.

Religious Segmentation

It is well-established that religion has been a strong correlate of Americans' political orientation for more than two decades, but precise analysis of its impact depends on exactly how one defines the public's degree of "religiousness". Additionally, the interaction among race, religion, and politics can make analysis of the relationship between religion and voting especially confusing in some instances.

One important consideration relates to the situation of blacks in America today; they are among the most religious of any identifiable subgroup in the country but are at the same time among the most Democratic of any demographic group included in most analyses. Although there is some interesting evidence that blacks who are the most religious are also slightly more likely to be Republican than blacks who are relatively less religious, the fact remains the blacks as a whole are highly likely to vote for the Democratic candidate in almost every state or federal election.

Therefore, for the purposes of this analysis, Gallup focuses primarily on the role of religion among whites, creating three groups: white, frequent churchgoers (those who attend church services weekly or almost every week); white, infrequent churchgoers (those who attend services monthly or less frequently); and all others.

[underpants]

1. Sorry, still not buying it

This attempt to prep the "battle field" for the surprising astonishing religous voter turn out that all vote Republican in November is pretty transparent but I am sure that the MSM will report this like it is the gospel.

[Monkeyman]

3. Anybody who votes just Religous reasons is a fool an uneducated

to the issues that face America

[Ian David]

20. Those who can be made to believe absurdities...

...can be made to commit atrocities.

People who are willing to spend hundreds of hours a year worshiping an invisible man in the sky are more likely to be susceptible to manipulation by The GOP which is, after all, less a political party than it is a cult.

The Republick Party knows how The God Button works, and they know how to push it.

Atheists stand for so much more, and fall for so much less.

[Beetwasher]

5. "...the surprising astonishing religous voter turn out..."

Don't forget that they are also invisible since they never show up in any exit polls, but are added in later to "correct" for the results of the vote, ahem, count.

[City Lights]

11. The supposed religious vote sealed the deal for Queen George in 2004,

yet James Dobson claims there are 25 million evangelicals who stayed home in 2004 they're trying to rally to the polls this fall. :scared:

Conservatives Put Faith in Church Voter Drives
Evangelicals seek to sign up a new flock of GOP supporters in states with crucial November races.
By Peter Wallsten, Times Staff Writer
August 15, 2006

WASHINGTON — As discontent with the Republican Party threatens to dampen the turnout of conservative voters in November, evangelical leaders are launching a massive registration drive that could help counter the malaise and mobilize new religious voters in battleground states.

The program, coordinated by the Colorado-based group Focus on the Family and its influential founder, James C. Dobson, would use a variety of methods — including information inserted in church publications and booths placed outside worship services — to recruit millions of new voters in 2006 and beyond.

<snip>

"In 2004, about 25 million evangelicals failed to vote. Now is the time to reverse the trend," the e-mail said.

more... http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-gopchurch15aug15,0,5887088.story

[Beetwasher]

14. Yes, The Invisible Evangelicals That Nobody Seems Able To Locate

Who miraculously turn up to vote and then disappear into the void.

[City Lights]

15. LOL!

:thumbsup:

[Wise Doubter]

24. YES!

If these people want to live in a country ruled by religion they should move to Iran !

[daleo]

18. They send their holy ghosts to vote

Thus, they don't register in the exit polls. Just another election night miracle.

[nolabels]

8. I never let go after 2000

At least it woke many more up to how corrupt things really are. I personally knew that things were bad but never noticed how transparently bad they were till then. It's going to get worse, I can smell it now, the calm before the storm is just leaving. 68 or what ever days from now, everyone should expect a lot of just about everything, these folks will not go quietly, that has already been proved.

[AX10]

9. Exactly! The MSM is preparing the GOP's...

"miraculous" comeback.

[underpants]

10. It's just as God wanted

[xxqqqzme]

2. BFD the fundie whackos are only 30%

of the voting population.

You are right, underpants - this is the set-up for a rethug shocking sweep in November.

BTW, look for California to turn red in November - everything that can be done IS being done 2 turn this state and the CDP is pretending everything is normal.

[AlinPA]

6. I don't have the data, but it seems republican support is almost all

Christian conservative bible thumpers and flat earthers.

[Xipe Totec]

4. to which I say: wake up and smell the brimstone

"beware of false prophets...you will know them by their fruit".

[VegasWolf]

7. Duh!! Of course it is a predictor. I predict that the 30% of US citizens

that are mouth-foaming, ill educated, rabid fundies will vote Republican.

[Supersedeas]

12. that is what Filthy Corrupt Neo-Cons are counting on--no Policy to offer

[sofa king]

13. They're also the ones who want to keep Jesus out of the country.

Seriously. Jesus wasn't white, wasn't American, didn't speak English, and he's likely to steal a carpentry job from some God-fearing American boy.

They want to build a fence to keep people like Jesus out.

[MrPrax]

16. Cart Before the Horse...

The results are clear. The one-third of registered voters who are white and attend church frequently are more likely to vote Republican in the midterm election, by a 24-point margin (58% to 34%). The half of the registered voter population who are white but who don't attend church frequently have significantly different vote intentions; they're more likely to vote Democratic by a 17-point margin (54% to 37%). The 16% of registered voters who are non-white (regardless of church attendance) overwhelmingly intend to vote Democratic, by a 59-point margin.

They got it backwards.

The striking conclusion of course is that they are not getting coming to the Republican party because of their religious beliefs, but through political 'prostelizing' through church attendence. 'Religiosity' is a bogus indicator since it obviously has NO bearing on the voting patterns of majority voters; Only republican church-goers.

Nice spin from Gallup and confirms that the Republican strategy of politizing 'hot button' issues at the parish level is effective and does translate into support.

Another indication is that the Democrats are wasting their time with courting religious support because it is quite likely their support comes from the fact they don't -- some of their support is reactive by 'religious' people who don't like their politics and religion mixed and probably feel quite strongly on this point.

[Rex]

17. "It is well-established that religion has been a strong correlate

of Americans' political orientation" hmm sound liek some bullshit I would say. :eyes:

[dreamsvsnightmares]

19. Black subgroup

What the hell does that mean. Is this coming from NJ VIA NEW ORLEANS

[CatholicEdHead]

21. Bullcrap

While it is true that there are liberal-leaning religious people, that 30% "fundie base" is also ticked off that their theocracy is not underway by now. They are getting testy and may just sit home.

[JerseygirlCT]

22. So does this mean I shouldn't go to church this week?

Or maybe those like me should make a point of going even more often, and speaking more loudly.

Yeah, I like that option.

[PATRICK]

23. Gallup should be grilled on this point

HAVE they taken the justification of the 2004 poll discrepancies as a factor in RESETTING their evaluation tools so that in effect this "religious value" factor is weighted according to that judgment?

I would leave out, in order to get their answer, what I think about their absurd "readjustment" recalculation in the first place. If so all Gallup polls since 2004 including that adjustment are skewed falsely up to 5% that include the use of this demographic.

How reliable will their exit polls be in 2006? this signals their is already an acceptable fraud deficit built in that the GOP can EXPAND upon.

And yes, one deserves and needs an answer whatever ones believes about the premise.

[Supersedeas]

25. a Faith based promise to their constituence -- Believe believe us

[OregonDem]

26. If your a snake handler or think Darwin is the Devil than you vote Repub

n/t

[demo dutch]

27. Know that they always poll with a GOP bias. Praying fixes everything so

they think!

[happyslug]

28. Gallup use to have a good reputation.....

But given this crap, Gallup has shown it is Solid part of the GOP. First, they take out ALL of the minorities, This skews the stats for low income people tend to be minorities more than whites. Then Gallup leaves in the Fundamentalist whites who are solid Republicans. Thus you start with 1/3 of the population in question solid Republican, with the remaining 2/3 split between the parties (i.e. TO get a majority all the GOP has to show is 1/6th of the remaining Voting GOP, thus even if the majority of the 2/3 who are NOT Fundamentalists vote Democratic, the poll would show most voting GOP (Figures don't lie, by liars figure).

Now, you must remember people are herd animals, if you can convinced them that X is what the majority of people like themselves believe, they will also believe in X. Advertisers do this all the time by showing a lot of people having fun using whatever item they are selling (Especially effective on Teenagers, but it affects all age-groups). If people identify with the people in the ad, they will come to believe they must have what is being sold in the Ad.

As to this poll, it is an attempt to get people who are regular Church Goers to believe that as regular Church goers they should Vote GOP like the majority of Church Goers. Thus by saying that the Majority of Church goers vote GOP, they are hoping to get other Church Goers to Vote GOP, for that is how Church Goers are suppose to vote. Yes, this is deliberate attempt to get more people to vote GOP.