STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday 1 September

[ozymandius]

Friday September 1, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 873 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2078 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1778 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1739
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 31, 2006

Dow... 11,381.15 -1.76 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq... 2,183.75 -1.98 (-0.09%)
S&P 500... 1,303.82 -0.45 (-0.03%)
Gold future... 634.20 +8.10 (+1.28%)
30-Year Bond 4.88% -0.03 (-0.69%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.73% -0.03 (-0.65%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Paul Nolte

WHAT DOES THE ECONOMIC DATA MEAN?

The first leg of a heavy economic data week has come in without too much fanfare. The key inflation data was a bit under expectations, while spending continues at a relatively brisk pace (still above earnings growth). This all still fits with the Fed’s decision to pause and may allow them to once again stand aside in September. Given the results of the minutes of the last meeting, it is VERY clear that inflation data is the primary focus and puts added emphasis on the CPI and PPI data in September (August data). If we look backwards to what was reported a year ago, inflation figures were very high on a month-to-month basis in the three months beginning in August. As long as the inflation is below 0.5%, the year-to-year figures should decline – even if the monthly figures are above expectations. Simply put, we will be replacing relatively high inflation numbers with relatively low numbers, so the Y/Y rates will fall.

If we look at just one component of inflation that everyone has been watching – oil. Pump prices are actually LOWER than a year ago, and 5-10% below a month ago levels. Again, comparing Y/Y changes in oil today vs. a year ago, we will see a dramatic decline in the rates of increase – again pointing toward lower inflation rates. A quick look at inventory levels, the surprises from the DOE have generally been on the high side. In fact, natural gas storage levels all year have been at least 10% above prior year levels, and the five-year average storage levels. Judging by the action in the oil market over the past two weeks, we would expect lower oil prices over the next six months – barring serious impairment due to hurricanes. (We view 2005 more of an anomaly than the “new” normal.)

Tomorrow we also get the granddaddy of economic news (at least it has been over the past six months), the unemployment report. Expectations are for job growth of around 125,000 and an increase in average hourly earnings of 0.3%. Arguments have raged about the overall level of job creation – it has been WELL below what has, until recently, been considered normal job growth. As recently as 2000, normal job creation was in the 200k range, below that pushed unemployment rates higher, and above pushed unemployment lower. The economy has been creating well below that 200k benchmark for over six months, yet the unemployment rate has actually declined – pointing to a hefty number of people actually leaving the job force. We would argue that the employment picture is actually worse than what the numbers are indicating – a higher unemployment rate AND a lower earnings growth rate. We believe that the risks are for the non-farm payrolls to come in below expectations. Our check of clients and businesses indicate that earnings growth is barely 3%, however many employees are also being asked to pick up a greater portion of healthcare costs – so the NET paycheck is marginally better than the prior year.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports-a-plenty

12:00 AM Auto Sales Aug
Briefing Forecast 5.4M
Market Expects 5.5M
Prior 5.6M

12:00 AM Truck Sales Aug
Briefing Forecast 7.4M
Market Expects 7.3M
Prior 7.6M

8:30 AM Average Workweek Aug
Briefing Forecast 33.9
Market Expects 33.9
Prior 33.9

8:30 AM Hourly Earnings Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.2%
Market Expects 0.3%
Prior 0.4%

8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls Aug
Briefing Forecast 120K
Market Expects 125K
Prior 113K

8:30 AM Unemployment Rate Aug
Briefing Forecast 4.7%
Market Expects 4.7%
Prior 4.8%

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Rev. Aug
Briefing Forecast 78.7
Market Expects 79.0
Prior 78.7

10:00 AM Construction Spending Jul
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.0%
Prior 0.3%

10:00 AM ISM Index Aug
Briefing Forecast 55.0
Market Expects 54.7
Prior 54.7

[UpInArms]

22. 8:30 reports:

8:30 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. AUGUST AVERAGE WORKWEEK FALLS TO 33.8 HOURS

8:30 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. AUGUST FACTORY JOBS DOWN 11,000; SERVICES UP 118,000

8:30 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. AUGUST RETAIL JOBS DOWN 14,000

8:30 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. AUGUST AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS UP 0.1% VS REV 0.5% JULY

8:30 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. JULY NONFARM PAYROLLS UP REV 121,000 VS 113,000 PREV

8:30 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. AUG. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.7% VS 4.8% IN JULY

8:30 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. AUG. NONFARM PAYROLLS UP 128,000, IN LINE WITH FORECAST

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. Aug. nonfarm payrolls up 128,000, in line with forecast

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BFFB1CA9A%2DE6C3%2D49D9%2DB145%2DB64F2570909E%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Job growth continued at a moderate pace in August, the Labor Department said Friday. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 128,000 in August almost exactly as expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. Job growth in June and July was revised up slightly higher by 18,000. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.7% in August from 4.8% in the previous month. This was also in line with expectations. Average hourly earnings increased 2 cents, or 0.1% to $16.79. Economists had been expecting a 0.3% gain. Earnings are up 3.9% in the past year. The average workweek slipped by 6 minutes to 33.8 hours. Economists were expecting the workweek to remain unchanged at 33.9 hours.

[UpInArms]

24. Payrolls show mixed picture in labor market

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BCDF6AF72%2DAF0C%2D4BDB%2D9E1A%2D15E7CB5BB90F%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. labor market is good, not great.

The nonfarm payrolls report for August released Friday show that most industries are still hiring, but wage growth slipped back and the number of hours worked fell sharply. See full story.

The report gives a green light for the Federal Reserve to extend its holiday until October at least.

On the strong side:
The establishment survey showed 128,000 new jobs created in August, close to the average for the year and close to what the economy needs to absorb new entrants to the labor force and to maintain a low employment rate.
The household survey showed a healthy 250,000 gain in employment, bringing the unemployment rate back down to 4.7%. The percentage of adults who had jobs rose by a tenth to 63.1%.
Education and health services created 60,000 jobs, the most in nearly two years. Construction industries added 17,000, including 4,000 in residential construction.
The percentage of industries hiring in August rose slightly to 55.9%.

On the weak side:
Average hourly earnings rose by just 2 cents, or 0.1%. Average hourly earnings have risen 3.9% in the past year, less than the inflation rate. Average weekly earnings fell by $1 to $567.50.

...more...

[54anickel]

35. Not too hot, not too cold. It's jusssssssst right.

Remember, that little blond girl demolished a chair, contaminated 2 bowls of porridge with her germs, and messed up 2 beds before she got chair, oatmeal, and bed that were "jusssst right".

[AnneD]

52. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: and lurkers. I think I'll just wait for the numbers that come out next week...you know the revised numbers. I'll hang my hat on those. On the news this am, they were all over the stats saying that workers felt things were better a generation ago. They read off all the numbers and had a union spokesman talk about how much money they were spending during the midterm election and how workers were angry. But the best part was when the had an admin spokesman on. It was all happy happy and just sounded sooo phony (think back to Baghdad Bob). Our local anchor then asked, 'Well if everything is so good, why do we have so many more folks without insurance?'. BADDA BING. They started tap dancing about how the economy was doing better and how companies are showing profits and how wages are going up. It was classic Texas 2 step side step.

And speaking of news anchors....is anyone else on this thread as offended by the Katie Couric commercials where she says that the world is a complicated place and her job is to help us make sense of it all. Like we're are all total morans that can't think for ourselves and need reassuring.....Well that may be true for the GOP base (since sex seems to be an issue for them), but frankly I know a screw job when I see one and this admin has been screwing the country and the middle class for way to long. Even some of the morans are waking up to that fact.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[54anickel]

53. K-K-K-Katy.....

K-K-K-Katy, space cadet Katy,
You're the only g-g-g-girl that I abhor;
When Rove's m-m-m-moon shines,
dripping with bullshit,
You'll be mopping up the k-k-k-kitchen floor.

[skids]

75. You got that right -- the world has become a pornographic film.

Everywhere you look, you see people getting screwed.

[UpInArms]

45. UMich and 10:00 reports:

10:00 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. AUG. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX JUST BELOW 54.7% CONSENSUS

10:00 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. AUG. ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX 54.5% VS 54.7% IN JULY

10:00 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. JULY PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION DROPS 2.0%

10:00 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. JULY PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION SPENDING FALLS 1.3%

10:00 AM ET 9/1/06 U.S. JULY CONSTRUCTION OUTLAYS DOWN 1.2% VS. 0.0% EXPECTED

9:49 AM ET 9/1/06 AUG. FINAL UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT BEATS 79.3 EXPECTED

9:48 AM ET 9/1/06 AUG. FINAL UMICH CURRENT CONDITIONS 103.8 V. 103.5 JULY

9:48 AM ET 9/1/06 AUG UMICH FINAL EXPECTATIONS 68.0 VS. 72.5 JULY: REPORTS

9:48 AM ET 9/1/06 AUG. FINAL UMICH CONSUMER SENTIMENT 82.0: REPORTS

[UpInArms]

46. U.S. July construction spending falls 1.2%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD57B87F9%2D46BC%2D4D3B%2D86DD%2D6E8C486217FF%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Spending on U.S. construction projects fell by 1.2% in July, dragged down by a drop in private residential construction, the Commerce Department said Friday. Spending on home-building fell by 2.0% in July, the lowest rate since March 2005, another sign of the slowing housing market that has cooled the pace of the overall economy. Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting construction spending to be flat in July. Spending on construction projects was down in four of six categories tracked by the government.

[UpInArms]

47. Pending homes sales index falls 7% in July

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA608AECE%2D938E%2D4D49%2D8A29%2D9FB11612C090%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - An index of pending home sales fell 7% in July to lowest level since February 2003, the National Association of Realtors reported Friday.

The index is down 16% in the past 12 months. Every other housing indicator shows a similar decline in the past year.

"The index shows existing-home sales should continue to ease after a stronger-than-expected decline in July, but are likely to flatten in the months ahead," said David Lereah, chief economist for the realtors.

In July, the pending home sales index fell 9% in the Midwest, 7.7% in the Northeast, 6.4% in the South and 5.5% in the West.

In the past year, the pending home sales index is down 20.3% in the West, 20.1% in the Midwest, 15.5% in the Northeast and 11.3% in the South.

The index tracks signed contracts for sales of existing homes. The realtors report sales in a separate report at the closing.

...more...

[UpInArms]

48. UMich Final for August @ 82.0 - down from 84.7 in July

Aug. final UMich consumer sentiment improves

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B4079298E%2D6386%2D4BA5%2DA3AB%2DFE44DD31C09B%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer sentiment improved in late August, according to media reports of proprietary research from the University of Michigan. The final August UMich consumer sentiment index rose to 82.0 from 78.7 in early August, but the index was down from 84.7 in July. The final UMich current conditions index rose to 103.8 from 103.5 in July and 100.8 in early August. The final UMich expectations index rose to 68.0 from 100.8 in early August, but was down from 72.5 in July.

[UpInArms]

55. Ford August U.S. sales fall 11.6%

12:04 PM ET 9/1/06 FORD SHARES DOWN 2.2% AT $8.19

12:04 PM ET 9/1/06 FORD AUGUST F-SERIES SALES DOWN 15%

12:03 PM ET 9/1/06 FORD AUGUST TRUCK SALES 157,311 VS 198,303, DOWN 20.7%

12:03 PM ET 9/1/06 FORD AUGUST CAR SALES 97,801 VS 90,126, UP 8.5%

12:02 PM ET 9/1/06 FORD AUGUST SALES 255,112 VS 288,429, DOWN 11.6%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B34C6DF49%2D81AB%2D4F87%2D972C%2D1270BA46D6F0%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Ford Motor Co. (F : 8.17, -0.20, -2.4% ) on Friday posted an 11.6% decline in August U.S. sales to 255,112 vehicles from 288,429 a year ago. The car side managed an 8.5% rise to 97,801 units while the truck side plunged 20.7% to 157,311. The F-Series, long the best-selling vehicle in the U.S., saw its sales slide 15% to 76,804. The Mustang, including the Shelby GT 500, provided a silver lining with a 64% surge to 17,933 cars, the highest for the legendary muscle car since 1979.

[UpInArms]

56. DaimlerChrysler August U.S. sales slip 3.2%

12:31 PM ET 9/1/06 MERCEDES-BENZ AUG. SALES 20,602 VS 19,267 UP 6.9%

12:31 PM ET 9/1/06 CHRYSLER GROUP AUG. SALES 179,165 VS 187,085 DOWN 4.2%

12:30 PM ET 9/1/06 DAIMLERCHRYSLER AUG. SALES 199,767 VS 206, 352, DOWN 3.2%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF7571883%2DBFEA%2D4357%2D8FC9%2DCC5F4AB99B33%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- DaimlerChrysler (DCX : 52.91, +0.13, +0.2% ) on Friday posted a 3.2% decline in August U.S. sales to 199,767 vehicles, down from 206,352 a year ago. The luxury Mercedes-Benz side, benefiting from increased demand for its light-truck lineup, reported a 6.9% increase, while the much larger Chrysler division turned in a 4.2% pullback to 179,165 cars and trucks.

[UpInArms]

60. Toyota August U.S. sales jump 17%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BC8DA8A4C%2D4002%2D4BEF%2DB603%2D989DE0EBC04F%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Toyota Motor (TM : 108.71, +0.37, +0.3% ) on Friday posted a 17% surge in August U.S. sales to 240,178 cars and trucks, up from 205,362 a year ago. Car sales led the way with a 19.9% rise while trucks, a segment that has seen steep declines form its U.S. competitors, saw sales gain 12.8%. The car side enjoyed strong showings from the Corolla, Camry Hybrid and Yaris while the RAV4 and FJ Cruiser boosted trucks. The luxury Lexus lineup of cars posted its best ever sales month with 18,736 units, up 25.6%.

[UpInArms]

62. GM August U.S. sales rise 3.9%; GM to cut production cut 12%

2:04 PM ET 9/1/06 GM AUG. HUMMER BRAND SALES 6,711 VS 6,367

2:03 PM ET 9/1/06 GM AUG. CHEVROLET BRAND SALES 210,860 VS 200,393

2:04 PM ET 9/1/06 GM AUG. GMC BRAND SALES 42,262 VS 38,349

2:03 PM ET 9/1/06 GM AUG. CADILLAC BRAND SALES 20,036 VS 19,262

2:02 PM ET 9/1/06 SUBARU AUG. U.S. SALES UP 2% TO 17,809

2:00 PM ET 9/1/06 GM SETS Q4 N.A. PRODUCTION FORECAST AT 1.13M VEHICLES

1:59 PM ET 9/1/06 GM TO CUT Q4 N.A. PRODUCTION BY 12%

1:57 PM ET 9/1/06 GENERAL MOTORS SHARES UP 2.4% TO $29.90

1:56 PM ET 9/1/06 GM AUG. TOTAL LIGHT VEHICLE SALES 363,521 VS 349,806

1:56 PM ET 9/1/06 GM AUG. TOTAL LIGHT VEHICLE SALES UP 3.9%

1:57 PM ET 9/1/06 GM AUG. BUICK BRAND SALES 22,853 VS 23,094

1:55 PM ET 9/1/06 GM AUG. TOTAL CAR SALES UP 3.9%

1:53 PM ET 9/1/06 GM AUG. TOTAL CAR SALES 156,723 VS 150,900

1:52 PM ET 9/1/06 CORRECT: GM AUG. TOTAL VEHICLE SALES UP 3.8%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF8F96CE6%2DCE21%2D4659%2DBE54%2D90829E4164E9%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- General Motors Corp. (GM : 29.76, +0.58, +2.0% ) on Friday posted a 3.9% rise in August U.S light vehicle sales and cut its fourth-quarter production plans by 12%. GM sold 363,521 light vehicles last month, up from 349,806 a year earlier. Both car and truck sales rose 3.8%. GM left its third-quarter production schedule unchanged.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices higher over Iran-UN standoff

SINGAPORE - Oil prices inched up Friday on market expectations that a current standoff between the West and Iran over the country's nuclear program would unlikely result in major sanctions against OPEC's second-largest producer.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery gained 5 cents to $70.34 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent crude for October delivery on London's ICE Futures exchange rose 27 cents to $70.52 a barrel.

The contract on Thursday rose 23 cents to settle at $70.26 a barrel, after Iran defied a United Nations deadline to stop enriching uranium, opening doors for sanctions.

-cut-

But most market participants did not expect any major sanctions to be imposed against the country as Russia and China were likely to oppose such a move.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. More Exxon Valdez cleanup cash sought

ANCHORAGE, Alaska - State and federal authorities on Thursday demanded $92 million from ExxonMobil Corp. to clean up oil that has lingered in Prince William Sound and the Gulf of Alaska since gushing from the Exxon Valdez tanker in 1989.

A $900 million settlement in 1991 included a "reopener" provision that allows a request for up to $100 million more in cleanup money, as long as government officials prove that wildlife or its habitat were still suffering spill-related setbacks that were unforeseen when the settlement was signed.

Along with the demand for $92 million, state and federal agencies sent Texas-based Exxon an extensive budget plan for finding and cleaning up the leftovers of the 11-million gallon spill.

Oil remains trapped beneath armor-like layers of rock and spread like pavement on some beaches, according to the recovery plan.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060901/ap_on_bi_ge/exxon_valdez_4

[wordpix2]

78. OMG-don't bet on the feds getting money from Exxon but it's at least a try

[ozymandius]

5. BP eyes end-September for East Prudhoe restart

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil major BP Plc (BP.L) (NYSE:BP - news) is aiming to restart oil production at the eastern half of the giant Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska by the end of September, sources familiar with the company's plans said on Thursday.

The plans for a partial restart call for the pipeline connecting Flow Station 1 with the Trans-Alaska pipeline to be returned to service, allowing up to half of the 200,000 barrels per day of shut-down production on the eastern side to restart.

Prudhoe Bay normally pumps around 400,000 bpd of oil, or 8 percent of U.S. domestic supply, but BP shut down half of the field in early August after government-ordered pipeline inspections turned up severe corrosion inside a segment of the eastern oil transit line at the field.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060831/bs_nm/energy_prudhoe_restart_dc_2

[UpInArms]

16. Labor Day Executive Excess report: Oil and Defense CEOs Pocket the Spoils

http://www.faireconomy.org/EE06

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT HERE: Executive Excess 2006 (PDF, 1 Mb)

CEOs in the defense and oil industries have been able to translate war and rising oil prices into personal jackpots, according to a new report from the Institute for Policy Studies and United for a Fair Economy, Executive Excess 2006.

OIL BARONS: With Americans now paying over $3 per gallon, petroleum profiteers are raking in nearly three times the pay of CEOs in comparably sized businesses. In 2005, the top 15 U.S. oil CEOs got a 50% raise since 2004. They now average $32.7 million, compared with $11.6 million for all CEOs of large U.S. firms.

Executive pay at U.S.-based oil companies also far outpaced pay at oil companies based outside the United States. BP and Royal Dutch Shell paid their CEOs only one-eighth what their U.S. counterparts collected — just $5.6 and $4.1 million in 2005, respectively — even though both companies operate in the same global marketplace as their U.S.-based competitors.

CEO William Greehey of Valero Energy took home the oil industry’s biggest executive pay rewards in 2005, pocketing $95.2 million. The average construction worker at an energy company would have to work 4,279 years to equal what Greehey collected last year.

DEFENSE CONTRACTORS: Since the “War on Terror” began, CEOs at the top 34 military contractors have enjoyed average paychecks that are double the compensation they received in the four years leading up to 9/11.

The new Executive Excess report surveys all publicly held U.S. corporations among the top 100 defense contractors that had at least 10 percent of revenues in defense. These 34 CEOs combined have pocketed almost a billion dollars since 9/11 — enough to employ more than a million Iraqis for a year to rebuild their country.

In 2005, defense industry CEOs walked off with 44 times more pay than military generals with 20 years experience, and 308 times more than Army privates.

...more...

[54anickel]

31. Hubby's union is going to be in the Labor Day parade with the governor

again this year and we plan on participating this time. I think we should pass out handouts of this article along the parade route. Hell, print up leaflets and drop them by helicopter over Labor Day parades and festivities all across the nation!!!

[wordpix2]

79. this is sick. Where is the investigation of the federal contracts? Oh yes

the secret senatorial sneak Ted Stevens (R-AKoil) stopped the inquiry.

[54anickel]

64. Jobs data help lead energy stocks higher

Heh-heh, I just got a kick out of the title.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=google&guid=%7BFC68A260-826E-4740-854D-B2EE268BCC56%7D&keyword=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Oil and gas stocks caught an early lift Friday with the rest of the stock market from the latest batch of payroll data, which showed August jobs and wages growth posing no major inflationary threat to the economy, a signal interpreted by Wall Street as yet another reason for the Fed to leave interest rates alone.

The move was further bolstered by a 9-cent uptick in October crude oil future in New York to $70.35 a barrel. No such underlying support was seen for natural gas, with the October contract down 17.8 cents at $5.87 per million Btu. See Futures Movers.

snip>

Despite the mildly bullish economic data, all of the companies on the oil index were trading within a narrow range of less than 1% from their previous close.

BP Plc. was among the decliners, down 0.3% at $67.82. The company said Thursday its has not target date for resuming 200,000 barrel-per-day production on the eastern half of Alaska's Prudhoe Bay.
The oil company also hasn't notified the U.S. Department of Transportation, which would need about two weeks to grant permission to use any pipelines in east Prudhoe Bay.

[ozymandius]

6. Exporters hit as UK manufacturing growth slows

The UK manufacturing sector expanded at its slowest pace in five months, according to a report released on Friday, as the strong pound and cooler global growth hit orders from abroad.

A survey published on Friday by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply and the Royal Bank of Scotland showed its index of manufacturing activity at 53.1 in August. This was below the downwardly revised 53.6 for July but still means the sector has witnessed growth for thirteen consecutive months.

Market reaction to the report was muted, with traders calculating the data was unlikely to significantly impact the deliberations of the Bank of England's monetary policy committee when it meets next week to discuss the cost of borrowing.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060901/bs_ft/fto090120060558425821

[ozymandius]

7. Miners lead FTSE higher

BHP Billiton (NYSE:BHP - news) and Rio Tinto investors breathed a sigh of relief on Friday following news that striking workers at La Escondida, the world's largest copper mine in Chile, had voted to accept a new labour contract and end their industrial action.

Shares in BHP Billiton, which owns a 57.5 per cent stake in the mine, gained 1.4 per cent to £10.15 in early trade while Rio Tinto, which owns 30 per cent, also rose 1.4 per cent to £26.94.

Copper prices have been extremely volatile recently over fears of a shortage as the strike brought around half of the mine's production to a halt. La Escondida produces 8 per cent of the world's copper.

Other mining stocks moved higher in sympathy. Xstrata climbed 1.6 per cent to £23.94 and Anglo American firmed 1 per cent to £22.94.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060901/bs_ft/fto090120060414125813

[Ghost Dog]

29. European shares rise ahead of U.S. payrolls

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060901:MTFH47075_2006-09-01_12-06-33_L01626278&type=comktNews&rpc=44

LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - European shares gained on Friday on upbeat news from companies in several sectors, but caution ahead of the monthly U.S. jobs report capped activity.

Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) rose after a judge blocked further sales of generic copies of blood-thinner Plavix, while builder Sacyr Vallehermoso (SVO.MC: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed 2.8 percent on a 20 percent rise in first-half profit, driven by its residential development and services divisions.

By 1120 GMT, the FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares was 0.4 percent higher at 1,377.39 points, around a three-and-a-half month high. The index is 2 percent below a five-year peak of 1,407.52 set in early May.

The narrower DJ Stoxx <.STOXX50> was up 0.3 percent at 3,534.7, while France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> gained 0.3 percent, Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> rose 0.3 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 (.FTSE: Quote, Profile, Research) added 0.5 percent.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

30. French new car sales stable in August

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060901:MTFH46462_2006-09-01_11-42-53_L01920197&type=comktNews&rpc=44

PARIS, Sept 1 (Reuters) - French new car sales were flat in August, after several miserable months, and the usually low-volume holiday month could not offset the negative cumulative trend, data showed on Friday.

But the CCFA industry group noted the first rise in sales of French-made cars since January 2005.

August sales were up 0.1 percent, based on the same number of working days, to 113,969 vehicles and were down 1.3 percent on a same-working-day basis to 1,374,747 cars in the year to date.

On a gross basis, the eight-month figure was down 1.9 percent.

French brands booked a small 0.6 percent rise in August while imported cars were down 0.4 percent. Italy's Fiat (FIA.MI: Quote, Profile, Research) group sales surged 39.3 percent to 4,807 cars.

Renault (RENA.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) group sales fell 8.2 percent in August, and 4.8 percent over the first eight months, due to a 7.1 percent decline at the main brand and a 26.8 percent fall for no-frills Logan model maker Dacia.

PSA Peugeot Citroen (PEUP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) had a 6.5 percent rise in August, and a 3.2 percent decline over the eight months, with a 12.7 percent August rise for Citroen and a 1.4 percent increase at Peugeot.

The Volkswagen group (VOWG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), the third biggest seller in France, had a 4.4 percent decline in August with an 8.2 percent drop in its main brand while Audi was up 2.0 percent and SEAT up 3.4 percent.

Ford (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 10.1 percent and GM (GM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) was up 9.5 percent while BMW dropped 18.9 percent in August.

DaimlerChrysler (DCXGn.DE: Quote, Profile, Research) booked a 2.2 percent rise.

/...

[Ghost Dog]

58. Banks, miners help propel European stocks higher

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060901:MTFH54314_2006-09-01_16-40-11_L01452019&type=comktNews&rpc=44

LONDON, Sept 1 (Reuters) - European shares rose on Friday to their highest closing level since mid-May, buoyed by banking and resource stocks after U.S. jobs data boosted hopes the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates on hold.

Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) rose after a judge blocked further sales of generic copies of its blood-thinner Plavix, while Alcatel (CGEP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) slipped after it agreed a $320 million deal to buy Nortel's (NT.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) third-generation cell phone network unit.

"We are positive on the market, I'm optimistic because of company valuations and backlogs," said Philipp Musil, fund manager at Constantia Privatbank.

"But most investors are nervous; we have a long weekend with markets closed in America. They have a huge amount of cash in their portfolios and mutual funds."

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.FTEU3> index of top European shares closed 0.4 percent higher at 1,377.52, the highest in 3-1/2 months. The index is 2 percent below a five-year peak of 1,407.52 set in early May.

The narrower DJ Stoxx <.STOXX50> was up 0.4 percent at 3,536.8, while France's CAC 40 <.FCHI> gained 0.4 percent, Germany's DAX <.GDAXI> rose 0.3 percent and Britain's FTSE 100 (.FTSE: Quote, Profile, Research) added 0.7 percent.

/...

[ozymandius]

8. Tokyo stocks hit by profit-taking

Tokyo shares slipped on Friday, as investors took profits in exporters that rallied in previous sessions on the yen's weakness against the euro.

The Nikkei 225 stock average fell 0.04 per cent to 16,134.25, while the broader Topix index was down 0.07 per cent to 1,633.35.

Shares of exporters and high-tech companies led the decline after the Nikkei closed to a one-week high on Thursday. Canon (NYSE:CAJ - news), the office equipment maker, was down 0.2 per cent to Y5,830, Konica Minolta was lower 1 per cent to Y1,520 and Toyota (NYSE:TM - news) was 0.8 per cent lower at Y6,320.

The Nikkei rose 4.4 per cent in August, while the Topix climbed 4 per cent, representing their biggest monthly respective gains since March.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20060901/bs_ft/fto090120060359125812

[Ghost Dog]

34. Hong Kong shares end up 0.2 pct, led by properties

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060901:MTFH42387_2006-09-01_08-13-13_HFB077646&type=comktNews&rpc=44

HONG KONG, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Hong Kong stocks rose on Friday for the fourth straight day, as Hang Lung Properties (0101.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) and other real estate shares extended their gains after this week's tame U.S. inflation data.

The benchmark Hang Seng Index <.HSI> ended up 0.2 percent at 17,423.72.

[Ghost Dog]

39. FACTBOX-Top ten Japanese overseas acquisitions

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060901:MTFH43054_2006-09-01_08-42-44_SP338959&pageNumber=2&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage2

Sept 1 (Reuters) - Japanese auto parts maker Asahi Tec Corp. <5606.T> acquired privately held U.S. rival Metaldyne Corp. in a deal worth about $1.2 billion including debt, Metaldyne confirmed on Friday.

<snip>

The deal is a latest in a string of overseas acquisitions for Japanese companies. Here is an overview of the top 10 between 2001 and 2006.

{Date; Acquirer; --> Target; Deal Value($m); note }

1. 06/02/06 Toshiba* --> Westinghouse Corp. 5,400 Electric (U.S.)
2. 27/02/06 Nippon Sheet --> Pilkington 3,015 Glass Co. (U.K.)
3. 24/07/01 Furukawa --> Lucent Technologies 2,377 Electric Co. (U.S.)
4. 18/05/06 Daikin* --> OYL Industries Ltd. 2,126 (Malaysia)
5. 16/04/02 Hitachi Ltd. --> IBM 2,050 (Hard drives, U.S.)
6. 30/10/01 Nissan --> Renault SA 1,959 Motor Co. (France)
7. 27/09/05 Osaka Gas Co. --> Fort Point Power 1,426 (U.S.)
8. 20/12/02 INPEX Corp. LUKoil OAO 1,354 (Russian Federation)
9. 01/09/05 Seven-Eleven --> 7-Eleven Inc 1,323 (U.S.)
10.24/02/06 Marubeni Corp. --> Oil& Gas Assets 1,300 (Mexico)

* Deal is pending

[ozymandius]

9. Ford puts Aston Martin up for auction

Ford Motor put Aston Martin up for auction on Thursday as the troubled US carmaker began dismantling its stable of British luxury brands in the face of deep losses in its home market.

Ford has appointed an investment bank to handle the sale of the famous brand, for which it is understood to have pencilled in a price of more than $2bn – far higher than the value put on it by financial analysts. It is already in early talks with "interested parties", Ford said, although it could retain a minority stake.

The sale comes as Ford is considering which other brands it should sell to fund restructuring and reduce losses at Premier Automotive Group, its luxury carunit, which lost $162m in the second quarter. The luxury division was supposed to break even this year after losing $100m last year but Ford warned in July that it would again make a loss.

Bill Ford, group chairman and chief executive, said Aston – based in the English midlands – was the "logical" choice for a sale because it had its own dealer network and factories. But he said no decision had been made on whether to sell Aston sister brands Jaguar, Land Rover or Volvo.

more

[ozymandius]

10. Good morning all.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I must run. Have a great day at the Casino. I also hope you have a wonderful long weekend.

See you Tuesday.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

11. Look at them futures go. With all those reports a-plenty coming out,

my bet is on a pump and dump long weekend Friday. Of course, the reports could (again) be laden with lies, half-truths, unknown knowns and known unknowns....but it just feels like a pump and dump Friday. Especially after such a calm last week of August. :shrug:

[54anickel]

14. U.S. futures up before payrolls; Bristol-Myers climbs

Job growth seen picking up to 129,000 in August

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE8832899%2D53D2%2D49F9%2D8FB1%2D30356488CF42%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo

LONDON (MarketWatch) - U.S. stock market futures showed a touch of strength on Friday ahead of statistics likely to show accelerating jobs growth in August, with Bristol-Myers Squibb rallying on a key court victory on a blood-thinning drug.

S&P 500 futures rose 1.4 points at 1,307.00 and Nasdaq 100 futures were up 2.5 points at 1,585.50. Dow industrial futures advanced 15 points.

On Thursday, U.S. stock markets finished basically unchanged after a raft of economic releases and after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said strong productivity growth may continue. The Dow industrials finished 1.8 points lower, and similarly mild moves were seen for the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 indexes.

Friday will see the release of more economic data, notably monthly jobs growth. Economists polled by MarketWatch are expecting nonfarm payrolls to increase by 129,000 in August after 113,000 jobs were created in July. Those figures are due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.

Along with the jobs figures, markets also are expecting a jobless rate of 4.7% and average hourly earnings growth of 0.3%.

more...

[54anickel]

71. Well, it's a dang good thing I'm not a day trader. I'd have lost my

ass betting on a pump and dump Friday. It's all good news!!!

[UpInArms]

12. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.07 Change -0.01 (-0.01%)

US Dollar - Looking Ahead to ISM and Payrolls

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar___Looking_Ahead_1157063800054.html

US Dollar

According to a study that we published earlier this month, the two most market moving indicators for the US dollar are ISM and non-farm payrolls. Tomorrow, we will not only be receiving both of these reports on the very same day, but also construction spending and the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. Unless everything is released in line, which tends to be unlikely, we could be setting up for a volatile morning, but only if the surprises is large. Contrary to popular belief, ISM has beaten out non-farm payrolls to be the dollar’s most market moving release. The main reason is because it sheds light on not only the labor market but also on the state of inflation. Judging from the other data that have been released already such as the PCE deflator and the prices paid component of today’s Chicago PMI report, which fell from 86.8 to 75.2, the ISM should paint a much tamer inflation picture. As for the unemployment report, most signs are pointing to slower job growth in the month of August even though the market is forecasting for an increase of 125k jobs compared to 113k jobs in the month of July. Decent jobless claims and an up tick in the employment component of the Chicago PMI survey suggest that we could see a triple digit number. However, the softer ADP employment forecast and today’s drop in help wanted ads puts the risk at a weaker instead of a stronger number. We think payrolls will likely come out in the range of 100-115k. The slowdown in the housing market should take a toll on construction related jobs while slower activity in manufacturing sector could make job growth in that part of the economy limited. With the market questioning the sustainability of every good number and taking every weak number in stride, we would need to see a sharp divergence from the consensus forecast to cause dollar bulls or bears to alter their positions. Most traders will already be in holiday mode and looking to square up ahead of the long weekend here in the US. At this juncture, payrolls are not likely to have a meaningful impact on Fed policy. The economy is slowing and inflationary pressures are moderating which will allow the Fed to continue to leave interest rates on hold.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

26. Dollar gains after payrolls report

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD1EF5AD9%2DDD2B%2D4876%2D8936%2DB30CF1E45810%7D&dist=rss&siteid=mktwdist%3Drss&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The dollar pared losses against the yen and rose against the euro early Friday after a Labor Department report showed job growth continued at a moderate pace in August. Nonfarm payrolls expanded by 128,000 in August, almost exactly as expected by economists. Job growth in June and July was revised up slightly higher by 18,000. The unemployment rate ticked lower to 4.7% in August from 4.8% in the previous month. This was also in line with expectations. Average hourly earnings increased 2 cents, or 0.1% to $16.79. Economists had been expecting a 0.3% gain. Earnings are up 3.9% in the past year. The euro was at $1.2788 vs. $1.2826 before data. The dollar was at 117.32 yen vs. 117.19 yen before data.

[UpInArms]

32. just wait 'til those traders understand that the rate hiking is over

:eyes:

[54anickel]

67. Well, it was good while it lasted

Last trade 84.93 Change -0.15 (-0.18%)

Settle Time 13:04 Open 85.07

Previous Close 85.08 High 85.37

Low 84.88 2006-09-01 14:57:32, 30 min delay

[UpInArms]

13. Intel may announce up 16,000 job cuts soon--report

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-09-01T015037Z_01_N31395302_RTRIDST_0_TECH-INTEL.XML&rpc=66&type=qcna

SAN FRANCISCO, Aug 31 (Reuters) - Intel Corp. (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research), the world's biggest microchip maker, may cut up to 10 percent of its work force as early as next Tuesday, a technology news site said on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the plans.

Earlier this month, the company wrapped up a 3-month review of its operations aimed at saving it $1 billion a year and making it more competitive with rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD.N: Quote, Profile, Research).

Analysts have said the Santa Clara, California-based firm is almost certainly preparing to slash its 100,000-strong work force, and the size and timing of the cuts have been a topic of heated speculation in recent weeks.

Intel spokesman Chuck Mulloy declined to comment on the specifics of the report, which was carried on News.com, a technology news site run by CNet Networks.

"We will keep our commitment to disclose the results of our efficiency study by the end of the third quarter," Mulloy said.

Previous estimates by Wall Street analysts have put the size of the cuts anywhere from a few thousand to 16,000 employees.

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. Intel said to mull up to 20,000 job cuts (might announce Tues after mkt cl

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BEF6E384E%2DA4E4%2D482D%2D8DE4%2DFD457826B27C%7D&symbol=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Intel Corp. is reportedly expected to announce as early as next week that it's cutting 10,000 to 20,000 jobs from its worldwide workforce of 100,000.

The Wall Street Journal and CNET News.com reported that Intel could publicly disclose the cuts after market close on Tuesday. See Wall Street Journal story (subscription required).

Earlier this year, Intel (INTC : 19.57, -0.27, -1.4% ) began a companywide restructuring in an effort to refocus on core chip operations and revive growth. Intel is betting on a product overhaul and PC price cuts to stave off market losses to smaller rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD : 24.99, -0.04, -0.2% ) .

In late July, Intel posted its lowest sales and profit figures since 2004 and offered a weaker-than-expected sales forecast for the quarter ending in September.

<snip>

The latest job reductions are likely to weigh heavily on marketing staff, according to CNET, which reported the job cuts could reach 10,000. The Journal reported the job cuts could reach 20,000.

...more...

[kdpeters]

77. What a way to kick off a holiday weekend.

Bastards. I walked out of that company two years ago. Should have left ten years ago.

[54anickel]

80. Congratulations kdpeters! I worked closely "with" them for years. They

really do suck as an employer, unless you're pretty damned high up the food chain there. Use you up, burn you out, then then spit you out. They had some excellent employees! I got to know a lot of them through the years. Talk about a high pressure job though. And nasty business tactics? You bet! Some of the crap they'd pull in Taiwan made my blood boil! Stories from some of the board vendors I worked with from there reminded me of the mob.

[kdpeters]

82. What you said...exactly.

I'm making about a third of what I used to and loving my job, my coworkers, and the impact we make in people's lives. It's not perfect, but I never thought I'd be so happy just getting by on such a tight budget. I can't wait to get to work most mornings. Intel can bite me. "great place to work" my ass.

[54anickel]

15. Fed and ECB diverge on economic outlook

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/312f19a8-3904-11db-a21d-0000779e2340.html

The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank painted contrasting pictures of the US and European economies on Thursday, with Ben Bernanke, Fed chairman, depicting a US economy that could continue to grow rapidly without generating inflation, while the ECB hinted that further interest rate rises were needed to stem inflationary pressure in the eurozone.

Together, the statement by Jean-Claude Trichet, ECB president, and the speech by Mr Bernanke indicated that European interest rates were likely to rise while there was no urgency for further US rate rises.

Mr Bernanke gave an optimistic assessment of the US economy’s ability to continue rapid economic growth without triggering further inflationary pressures.

snip>

His comments showed that he thinks the US economy can still grow a little over 3 per cent a year without stoking inflation and interest rates.

snip>

Across the Atlantic, Mr Trichet announced big upward revisions to the ECB’s inflation forecasts for this year and next and called for “strong vigilance” to defend price stability – code words used to signal an interest rate increase in early October.

more....

Seems like co-ordinated Jaw-bonin' to me

[Ghost Dog]

33. GLOBAL ECONOMY-Industry eases to cruising speed

http://yahoo.reuters.com/news/articlehybrid.aspx?type=comktNews&storyID=urn:newsml:reuters.com:20060901:MTFH47004_2006-09-01_12-03-54_L01404633&pageNumber=2&imageid=&cap=&sz=13&WTModLoc=HybArt-C1-ArticlePage2

PARIS, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Manufacturing growth in Europe and Japan eased in August to a still brisk cruising speed as inflationary pressure eased, surveys of corporate purchasing managers (PMIs) showed. A parallel report was due from the United States on Friday (1400 GMT) and tipped among analysts polled by Reuters to show a slight rise in the pace of manufacturing sector growth.

The PMI surveys, regarded by financial markets as providing a particularly clear view of activity levels, left Europe-focused economists content in the belief that growth is respectable and euro zone interest rates sure to rise further. This was despite a fall in the eurozone August PMI reading for the second successive month, to 56.5, from 57.4 in July. "Growth is above trend and the ECB would argue that interest rates are still below a neutral level, so that's definitely consistent with more rate hikes to come," Markus Heider at Deutsche Bank in London said.

<snip>

The European Commission confirmed on Friday that GDP growth hit 0.9 percent in the second quarter, its fastest pace in six years, and jacked up its previous estimate for first-quarter growth to 0.8 percent from an initial estimate of 0.6. Business investment was the main growth driver, it said, adding that household consumption, long a weak point due to relatively high unemployment and high energy prices, was the second-biggest net contributor, accounting for 0.2 percentage point of the overall 0.9 percent GDP gain.

<snip>

One noticeable difference in the readouts from Europe and Japan was that European firms turned a bit more wary of hiring in August than in the previous months while Japanese companies recruited at the fastest rate on PMI records.

Manufacturing activity in Japan grew at a slower pace as a cooling of domestic demand offset a boost in orders from overseas to the strongest in over two years. The NTC Research/Nomura/JMMA Purchasing Managers Index published on Thursday came in at a seasonally adjusted 54.6 for August, down from a four-month high of 55.7 in July.

The employment index hit its highest since the PMI survey was launched in October 2001, climbing to 55.3.

China was cited in the report as one of the main drivers of a rise in Japan's index of new export orders, which rose to its best level in two years at 54.5.

<snip>

Elsewhere PMI surveys showed the pace of manufacturing growth quickening in India, Russia, and some east European countries and reaching a record high in Switzerland.

/...

[UpInArms]

17. GamAnonMtg: Derivative traders see Aug US payrolls at 102,510

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-01T120807Z_01_N01435835_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-PAYROLLS-DERIVATIVES.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Traders were betting on Friday that U.S. employers added about 102,510 jobs in August in the final derivatives auction, according to data from the firms holding the auction.

The results, which are a median of the auction, were lower than the median forecast for the government's payroll figure among economists polled by Reuters.

The U.S. Labor Department will issue the August payroll report at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT).

The derivatives auction on Friday covered a wide range of expectations, with a payroll gain of 75,000 to 150,000 drawing about 36 percent of trader's bets.

Economists on average expect an increase of 120,000 in nonfarm payrolls in August following a 113,000 rise in July, according to the latest median forecast of economists polled by Reuters.

...more...

[54anickel]

20. So they're betting on about an 80K shortfall. So how does this hedging

your bets work anyway? Do you win on anything short of analysts predicitons or does the shortfall have to meet or beat your bet? Do you have to be accurate on both direction and amount or just direction? Inquiring minds and all.... if it's just direction it seems like an easy bet. Although maybe not quite as easy with the house stacking the deck within the report.

[UpInArms]

21. here's a "correspondence course" version

http://www.d-x.ca/hedging_using_futures_contracts.php

Hedging Using Futures Contracts
Hedging protects an investor’s financial position against adverse price movements. Stated another way, hedging serves to minimize potential losses.

Futures contracts are among the most commonly used hedging instruments. Producers of agricultural products (i.e., agricultural farms, mining industries) enter into futures contracts to guarantee the sale price of their goods at market delivery. Conversely, users of agricultural products (i.e., bakeries, jewleries) enter into futures contracts to guarantee the purchase price of their goods at delivery.

Want to learn more about hedging futures contracts?
The Derivatives Institute offers both an Introductory and Advanced Level series of online courses that addresses hedging using futures contracts. The Derivatives: Basic Concepts series (Introductory Level) covers the basic characteristics and applications of derivative instruments, including how they can be incorporated into common trading strategies to hedge or protect the wealth of an investment portfolio. The Optimizing Portfolio Performance with Derivatives series (Advanced Level) presents various advanced investment strategies and hedging applications using futures and options contracts.

Whether you are a novice or experienced investor, the Derivatives Institute has a course tailored to your needs. For a complete description of our online series of courses and in-class seminars, consult our course catalogue.

[54anickel]

18. Going For Broke

Elizabeth Warren discusses how ordinary families wind up bankrupt and why new legislation could be hurting those at risk.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14604090/site/newsweek/

Aug. 31, 2006 - Last year, the number of personal bankruptcies ballooned to two million as people rushed to beat last deadline for a new law that made it harder and more expensive for consumers to declare themselves broke. The increase was followed by a slump, with the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts reporting this week that personal bankruptcies for the year ending June 30 fell to 1.45 million—the lowest level in five years.

Does that mean Americans are in better financial shape? Not quite, according to bankruptcy expert Elizabeth Warren, a professor of law at Harvard University and co-author (with her daughter) of "The Two-Income Trap: Why Middle-Class Mothers and Fathers Are Going Broke" (Basic Books; September 2003) and "All Your Worth: The Ultimate Lifetime Money Plan" (Free Press; March 2005.) NEWSWEEK's Karen Springen spoke with Warren about why she thinks the current legislation helps lenders at the expense of ordinary Americans and how the nation can get out of a debilitating cycle of debt. Excerpts:

NEWSWEEK: In 2005, you testified in Congress against the new bankruptcy law. Why do you think it passed anyway?
Elizabeth Warren: This is one of those times when the imbalance in lobbying could not have been more grotesque. I had people in Congress tell me that they had two and three and four lobbyists come by to see them every single day for months on end. There was no one to lobby for families in financial trouble ... It's just not fair.

Many indebted Americans get stuck in a bottomless pit of late fees and increased interest rates. What happens now that their bankruptcy options are reduced and it costs so much more to file?
Many will go bankrupt anyway. This bill was about driving up the costs of filing for bankruptcy and delaying that filing, so that people would make payments for another three to six months before they went to see a lawyer. Many of them will still apply for bankruptcy. The only people who will be denied access to bankruptcy will be the very poorest, who can't pay the increased filing fees or hire a lawyer. For the overwhelming majority of families who file for bankruptcy, there is no other option. They owe on average more than two years' income. They can't make interest payments on what they owe. The only options other than bankruptcy are going into the underground economy or knocking over 7-11 .

more...

[UpInArms]

19. Housing `Short Sales' Are Latest Sign of Stress

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&refer=columnist_baum&sid=axfgIEKXjgy4

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Housing headlines are dominating the news these days in the same way the Nasdaq did in the late 1990s.

And no wonder. Successive years of sizzling sales and spectacular price appreciation have given way to falling sales and starts, record inventories of unsold homes (new and existing), a plunge in housing affordability and a flattening out of prices on a nationwide basis. The residential real estate market may never match the Nasdaq's vertiginous 78 percent decline from the 2000 top to the 2002 bottom, but it is captivating potential sellers, late-to-the-party speculative buyers and analysts looking to assess the impact on the overall economy.

The big debate is whether housing will a) stabilize at a lower level; b) slide for an extended period; or c) sink fast and take the economy down with it. Each option carries its own flow chart of possibilities.

Residential real estate accounts directly for 5 percent of real gross domestic product and indirectly for a greater share: Newly built homes require furnishings and appliances.

<snip>

Greenspan never believed in the intangible aspect of the wealth effect: the idea that a homeowner could feel richer, and spend more from earned income or borrow to finance spending, because the price of an asset had appreciated on paper. For him, it was the actual dollars in consumers' pockets that mattered. (Maybe that's why he never grasped the stock market bubble in real time.)

Well MEW and HEE may soon become HEE HAW, for ``Home Equity Extraction or House As Wager.'' When prices stop rising, as they have in many previously hot areas of the country, the game is up for all but the savviest speculators who know the real estate market in a particular area and can spot undervalued properties.

...more...

[54anickel]

28. Hmmm, it will be interesting to see if bankers take up the "short sellers"

offer. Wouldn't it offer some insight into where the bans believes the local market is headed?

...Homeowners who owe the bank more than the house is currently worth try to convince the lender to accept less than the loan value to avoid the costs of foreclosing on the property.

The other question that comes to mind is - If this catches on, wouldn't it hasten a decline in the average selling price of a local market?

I thought realtors ignore the selling prices of foreclosures and sheriff's auctions when calculating the average selling price to come up with a fair market value. So, if there are enough "short seller" offers accepted by the bank in an area, and that person then sells the house for the reduced amount it would look like a "normal" selling price and would get picked up in the realtor's calculation. Wouldn't this practice "speed up" a decline in fair market values in an area? :freak:

[54anickel]

40. Nightmare Mortgages

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/06_37/b4000001.htm

snip>

The option adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) might be the riskiest and most complicated home loan product ever created. With its temptingly low minimum payments, the option ARM brought a whole new group of buyers into the housing market, extending the boom longer than it could have otherwise lasted, especially in the hottest markets. Suddenly, almost anyone could afford a home -- or so they thought. The option ARM's low payments are only temporary. And the less a borrower chooses to pay now, the more is tacked onto the balance.

The bill is coming due. Many of the option ARMs taken out in 2004 and 2005 are resetting at much higher payment schedules -- often to the astonishment of people who thought the low installments were fixed for at least five years. And because home prices have leveled off, borrowers can't count on rising equity to bail them out. What's more, steep penalties prevent them from refinancing. The most diligent home buyers asked enough questions to know that option ARMs can be fraught with risk. But others, caught up in real estate mania, ignored or failed to appreciate the risk.

There was plenty more going on behind the scenes they didn't know about, either: that their broker was paid more to sell option ARMs than other mortgages; that their lender is allowed to claim the full monthly payment as revenue on its books even when borrowers choose to pay much less; that the loan's interest rates and up-front fees might not have been set by their bank but rather by a hedge fund; and that they'll soon be confronted with the choice of coughing up higher payments or coughing up their home. The option ARM is "like the neutron bomb," says George McCarthy, a housing economist at New York's Ford Foundation. "It's going to kill all the people but leave the houses standing."

Because banks don't have to report how many option ARMs they underwrite, few choose to do so. But the best available estimates show that option ARMs have soared in popularity. They accounted for as little as 0.5% of all mortgages written in 2003, but that shot up to at least 12.3% through the first five months of this year, according to FirstAmerican LoanPerformance, an industry tracker. And while they made up at least 40% of mortgages in Salinas, Calif., and 26% in Naples, Fla., they're not just found in overheated coastal markets: Through Mar. 31 of this year, at least 51% of mortgages in West Virginia and 26% in Wyoming were option ARMs. Stock and bond analysts estimate that as many as 1.3 million borrowers took out as much as $389 billion in option ARMs in 2004 and 2005. And it's not letting up. Despite the housing slump, option ARMs totaling $77.2 billion were written in the second quarter of this year, according to investment bank Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc.

snip>

Option ARMs were created in 1981 and for years were marketed to well-heeled home buyers who wanted the option of making low payments most months and then paying off a big chunk all at once. For them, option ARMs offered flexibility.

So how did these unusual loans get into the hands of so many ordinary folks? The sequence of events was orderly and even rational, at least within a flawed system. In the early years of the housing boom, falling interest rates made safe fixed-rate loans attractive to borrowers. As home prices soared, banks pushed adjustable-rate loans with lower initial payments. When those got too pricey, banks hawked loans that required only interest payments for the first few years. And then they flogged option ARMs -- not as financial-planning tools for the wealthy but as affordability tools for the masses. Banks tapped an army of unregulated mortgage brokers to do what needed to be done to keep the money flowing, even if it meant putting dangerous loans in the hands of people who couldn't handle or didn't understand the risk. And Wall Street greased the skids by taking on much of the new risk banks were creating.

more...

[UpInArms]

41. Alan "Satan" GreenPhlegm touted those ARMs 2/23/2004

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/speeches/2004/20040223/default.htm

One way homeowners attempt to manage their payment risk is to use fixed-rate mortgages, which typically allow homeowners to prepay their debt when interest rates fall but do not involve an increase in payments when interest rates rise. Homeowners pay a lot of money for the right to refinance and for the insurance against increasing mortgage payments. Calculations by market analysts of the "option adjusted spread" on mortgages suggest that the cost of these benefits conferred by fixed-rate mortgages can range from 0.5 percent to 1.2 percent, raising homeowners' annual after-tax mortgage payments by several thousand dollars. Indeed, recent research within the Federal Reserve suggests that many homeowners might have saved tens of thousands of dollars had they held adjustable-rate mortgages rather than fixed-rate mortgages during the past decade, though this would not have been the case, of course, had interest rates trended sharply upward.

American homeowners clearly like the certainty of fixed mortgage payments. This preference is in striking contrast to the situation in some other countries, where adjustable-rate mortgages are far more common and where efforts to introduce American-type fixed-rate mortgages generally have not been successful. Fixed-rate mortgages seem unduly expensive to households in other countries. One possible reason is that these mortgages effectively charge homeowners high fees for protection against rising interest rates and for the right to refinance.

American consumers might benefit if lenders provided greater mortgage product alternatives to the traditional fixed-rate mortgage. To the degree that households are driven by fears of payment shocks but are willing to manage their own interest rate risks, the traditional fixed-rate mortgage may be an expensive method of financing a home.

Contrarian Chronicles: Don't take mortgage advice from Alan Greenspan

The Fed boss says homeowners should switch to adjustable-rate loans and save the difference. His record is full of dangerous moments like this when he’s been way, way off.

By Bill Fleckenstein

Last week, Alan Greenspan was a study in contradiction. On Monday, he extolled the virtues of the levered-up homeowner to a credit union conference. The next day, in a speech to the Senate Banking Committee, he was singing a different tune altogether. Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs), the giant providers of mortgage capital, he warned, "are expanding at a pace beyond that consistent with systemic safety," and that "preventative actions are required sooner, rather than later."

For a Federal Reserve chairman who has demonstrated that he couldn't identify reckless behavior if it ran him over, it was rather surprising to hear him chide Fannie and Freddie for their recklessness. (I should state, however, it’s an opinion I tend to share.)

His scolding might better be directed inward. What he advocated last Monday should send cold shivers down the spine of anyone so engaged. I already thought that what was going on in real estate was dangerous, but what he now cites as a good thing is not only dangerous, it will be disastrous -- guaranteed.

...more...

[54anickel]

44. Bwahaha, Alan "Satan" GreenPhlegm!!! That's a new one.

[AnneD]

57. What next....

Richard Lugi, Ahnuld Schnotsenegger, Slick Cheney, Condisnezza Rice....Don't mess with the gross out queen :headbang: :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

59. Ewwwww, should have known that you can't beat a nurse at the

gross out game. They have a mastery of bodily fluids and functions!
ARRRRGH!! Get away! Get it off of me! Use a flaming stick if you must, but get it OFF!!! :evilgrin: :hi:

[wordpix2]

81. oh, goody, if people have to sell out now that the ARMS are expired

it will add to the housing inventory and that means prices will lower in next year.

[54anickel]

42. The Great Housing Crash of '07 (Yikes!)

http://www.counterpunch.com/whitney08302006.html

snip>

The housing bubble is a $10 trillion equity balloon that will explode sometime in 2007 when more than $1 trillion in no-interest, no down payment, adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) reset; setting the stage for massive home devaluation, foreclosures and unemployment. ("By some estimates housing activity has accounted for 40% of all the jobs created since 2001". Times Online) July's plunging sales are just the first sign of a major slowdown. The worst is yet to come.

The blame for this rapidly-approaching meltdown lies entirely with the Federal Reserve, the privately-owned collection of 10 central banks who cooked up a way to shift wealth from one class to another through low interest rates.

snip>

When the stock market nose-dived in 2000 the Fed lowered rates 17 times to an unbelievable 1% to keep the economy sputtering-along while the Bush administration dragged the country to war, gave away $450 billion a year in tax cuts, and awarded zillions in no bid contracts to their friends in big business. All tolled, the Bush-handouts amounted to roughly $3 trillion dollars, the largest heist in history, and it was carried out under the nose of the snoozing American public.

snip>

There is no real growth in the American economy. Figure it out. Last year Americans saved less than 0% of their net earnings while they borrowed a whopping $600 billion from their home equity to piss-away on a consumer spending-spree. Once home prices begin to retreat, that $600 billion will evaporate, real GDP will shrivel, and the economy will begin flat-lining. (Consumer spending is 70% of GDP)

The Federal Reserve's plan is so simple; we shouldn't dignify it by calling it a conspiracy. It's merely a matter of hypnotizing the masses with low interest rates while trillions of dollars of real wealth is diverted to corporate big-wigs and American plutocrats.

It might not be rocket science, but it worked like a charm.

Now, the trap-door has been sprung; the country is dead-broke and all the levers are in place for a police state. As the housing-balloon slowly limps towards earth, the new Halliburton detention centers are up and running, the National Guard is in Rummy's control, the Feds are able to listen-in on every phone call we make.

more...

[UpInArms]

25. 75 are laid off at Kennedy Space Center before Atlantis Launch

http://cfn13.com/StoryHeadline.aspx?id=18330

We've learned 75 employees at the Kennedy Space Center are losing their jobs.

The workers are employed by NASA subcontractor SGS. The company keeps the infrastructure of the space center running.

The laid off employees include workers from engineering support, environmental services, police and firefighters.

"It's one of the most difficult things you can do to an employee,” Sam Gutierrez said. “Letting them know there will be a reduction in force and the impact could affect them."

The company says it still will be able to operate without any problems, despite the job cuts.

In other Destination Space news, NASA says space shuttle Atlantis survived Ernesto unscathed. Now the space agency has officially set the launch date for September 6.

...more...

[AnneD]

63. Welcome...

to the Bush (league) Space Center.

Police-we don't need them. Homeland security protects us from terrorists, tourists, and inquisitive 7 year old wanna be astronauts. Besides all we launch are their spy satellites-they should pick up the tab.

Firefighters-we don't need them. Most of the shuttle fire took place upon entry or post launch where it was someone else's problem. Just cutting the firefighters enabled our CEO to get not only a hefty raise, but over pay on the Halliburton contract AND make a generous contribution to Jeb Bush's Presidential Re-Election campaign.

Environmental Services-we don't need them. Astronauts will empty all waste baskets and carry them out to the shuttle. A waste dump will be preformed in space and not only will we save on labor but we will not have to fork over a waste management fee.

Engineering Support-we don't need them. The last time we used them was during Apollo 13. We outsourced that to Ahpu in Bangalore. He is a recent graduate of BU and he and his 2 brothers will do the job for $30/month USD

You'll excuse me. We have a limited launch window and the elastic band on the sling shot malfunctioned. Thank goodness we still have that back up trebuchet. You're welcome to tour the facilities-just don't look too closely and we reserve the right to preview your article.

[UpInArms]

27. Treasurys tick lower after Aug. jobs report

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE12E134F%2DEBB0%2D43FD%2DB4B4%2D31A51429F8E2%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys fell early Friday, sending yields higher, after the Labor Department said nonfarm payrolls grew by 128,000 in August, while the jobless rate inched down to 4.7% from 4.8% in July. The reading was very close to economist expectations. Average hourly earnings increased 2 cents, or 0.1% to $16.79, but were up 3.9% year-on-year. Economists had been expecting a 0.3% gain. The 10-year note was last down 2/32 at 101 2/32, yielding ($TNX : 47.41, +0.09, +0.2% ) 4.741%.

[UpInArms]

37. Chromcraft outlines restructuring plan w/ job cuts - moving jobs to Asia

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B6AD22BE3%2DF019%2D497A%2DA1D3%2D29E16361E21D%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Chromcraft Revington Inc. (CRC : 10.52, -0.48, -4.4% ) Friday said its board has approved a restructuring plan. The West Lafayette, Ind., furniture maker has decided to outsource its Sumter brand bedroom and dining furniture operations, currently located in Sumter, S.C., to contract manufacturers in Asia. The Sumter operations will cease on Oct. 31. The move will result in the layoff of 200 employees, roughly 17% of the company's total workforce. The company will also close its warehouse and distribution center in Knoxville, Tenn., by Dec. 31 and relocate its upholstered furniture operations to a different building located in Lincolnton, N.C. by Nov. 30. An additional 16 employees are expected to be laid off as part of the closing of the warehouse and distribution center in Knoxville. Chromcraft expects to record pre-tax cost and asset impairment charges of between $6 million and $7.5 million from the restructuring. The stock closed Thursday at $10.52, down 48 cents.

[UpInArms]

38. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.2.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.0. Upon further analysis of payroll data which reflect a very stable economic trend consistent with a modest slowdown in economic growth futures indications are now pointing to an even stronger start for stocks. Per usual, stocks initially looked to ensuing action in the Treasury market to set the tone of trading for the day. However, good news is good news, and the bulls (what few have yet to get a jump on the Labor Day weekend) aren't about to let some profit-taking in bonds take away from a moderately bullish jobs report. The 10-yr note is still down 6 ticks to yield 4.75%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.0. Futures trade has been volatile following the August jobs report, but still indicates a slightly higher open for the indices. Nonfarm payrolls rose 128K (consensus 125K) while hourly earnings rose just 0.1% (consensus 0.3%) following strong 0.5% and 0.4% gains in July and June, respectively, further cooling inflationary potential but leaves a year/year rate at a worrisome 3.9%; the unemployment rate falling to 4.7%, matching economists' forecasts, also raises some nervousness throughout the Treasury market which has left equity investors uncertain about what impact the data will have on Fed policy. The 10-yr note is down 6 ticks to yield 4.75%.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.5. Early indications are pointing to a slightly higher open for stocks, as both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are trading above fair value. However, with the market awaiting the 8:30 ET release of the influential August employment report, there is little reason to get overly excited about an early positive bias since the jobs data will set a more definitive tone to the day's trading with stocks likely taking a cue from the performance of the Treasury market following the report.

[54anickel]

43. Vital Signs: Will Housing Haunt Growth?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/bw/20060901/bs_bw/pi20060831418171

It will be another slow week on the economic front. Following the Labor Day holiday, there won't be a lot of data that typically drive the market. The most important economic numbers could very well be revisions to second-quarter labor productivity results.

The second pass at gross domestic product data for the second quarter had a big surprise. Besides producing more goods and services, American businesses also shelled out a lot more money to its workers. Wages and salaries paid out during the April to June period grew by 8.6% from a year ago rather than 6.8%. The original amount was pretty good but the new number shows the strongest yearly gain in compensation since the third quarter of 2000.

So even though productivity growth will likely be revised up, unit labor costs will probably show an even larger upward revision. The revision will likely catch the attention of investors, economists, and the Federal Reserve. The central bank has been on the lookout for signs of accelerating rising labor costs that could spark up additional price pressures through the economy.

At the same time more income for consumers should soften the blow from a weaker housing market. The Fed's Beige Book report, the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing index, and weekly chain store sales will shed some light on how much of an impact housing is having on the health of the economy and on consumer demand.

bit more...

[54anickel]

49. Dow to Close Plants in Italy, Canada, Record Costs

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aiJHbSb2s59c&refer=canada

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Dow Chemical Co., which is shuttering plants in anticipation of slowing plastics demand, plans to close six factories in Canada and one in Italy, recording as much as $650 million in expenses in the third quarter.

All four plants in Sarnia, Ontario, will be shut, along with two of seven facilities in Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta, and a factory in Porto Marghera, Italy, saving $160 million a year, Midland, Michigan-based Dow, the largest U.S. chemical producer, said today in a statement. About 750 jobs will be cut, spokesman Chris Huntley said.

The Sarnia site, once Dow's biggest in Canada, will close by the end of 2008. Chief Executive Officer Andrew Liveris is shutting plants that make commodity chemicals such as polyethylene plastic and chlorine before a slowing economy and a capacity glut erodes profit. He is expanding in the Middle East to take advantage of cheaper raw materials for meeting Asian demand.

``These guys are beginning to take the right steps,'' said Hassan I. Ahmed, an HSBC Securities analyst in New York. ``Commodity chemicals and North America are both areas that Dow wants to get the heck out of.'' He rates the shares ``neutral.''

snip>

The company has closed more than 50 plants in three years. Liveris said in July that earnings may slide this year and that he plans ``to remake the portfolio before any sort of downturn'' in chemical demand.

Dow this month said it will spend more than $200 million in China over the next five years to build research and manufacturing facilities to meet demand for chemicals such as adhesives.

more...

[54anickel]

50. 10:15 and settling along with the dust

Dow 11,397.72 +16.57 (+0.15%)
Nasdaq 2,183.87 +0.12 (+0.01%)
S&P 500 1,305.43 +1.61 (+0.12%)
10-yr Bond 4.761 +0.029 (+0.61%)
30-yr Bond 4.903 +0.025 (+0.51%)
NYSE Volume 343,452,000
Nasdaq Volume 291,645,000

10:00 am : Equities are still on the offensive as all 10 economic sectors trade higher. Providing the bulk of early support is Consumer Discretionary, getting a lift after Starbucks (SBUX 31.50 +0.49) posted a stronger than expected 5% rise in August same-store sales. Health Care is also acting as a source of notable leadership after a federal judge granted a preliminary injunction ordering Apotex to halt sales of its generic version of Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY 22.77 +1.02) drug Plavix. Technology, though, is off its best levels amid a reversal in the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (e.g. BRCM -2.4%) and weakness in the AMEX Networking Index (e.g. CIEN -4.0%), but is still clinging to a small gain. DJ30 +38.98 NASDAQ +7.40 SOX -0.3% SP500 +4.32 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 781/1599/212 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 649/1854/154 mln

[UpInArms]

51. 10:20 EST numbers and blather

Dow 11,404.12 +22.97 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,185.28 +1.53 (+0.07%)
S&P 500 1,306.36 +2.54 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.763 +0.031 (+0.66%)

NYSE Volume 368,247,000
Nasdaq Volume 313,052,000

10:00 am : Equities are still on the offensive as all 10 economic sectors trade higher. Providing the bulk of early support is Consumer Discretionary, getting a lift after Starbucks (SBUX 31.50 +0.49) posted a stronger than expected 5% rise in August same-store sales. Health Care is also acting as a source of notable leadership after a federal judge granted a preliminary injunction ordering Apotex to halt sales of its generic version of Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY 22.77 +1.02) drug Plavix. Technology, though, is off its best levels amid a reversal in the PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index (e.g. BRCM -2.4%) and weakness in the AMEX Networking Index (e.g. CIEN -4.0%), but is still clinging to a small gain. DJ30 +38.98 NASDAQ +7.40 SOX -0.3% SP500 +4.32 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 781/1599/212 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 649/1854/154 mln

09:40 am : Stocks kick off the month of September on an upbeat note, as investors embrace a moderately bullish jobs report. Nonfarm payrolls rose 128K (consensus 125K), which is consistent with the recent trend and good enough to keep the unemployment rate steady; it fell to 4.7% in August from 4.8% in July. Even more encouraging were hourly earnings, which rose just 0.1% (consensus 0.3%), leaving the year-over-year rate at a slightly worrisome 3.9% but still alleviating the worst fears of a significant uptrend in inflation. DJ30 +39.62 NASDAQ +11.29 SP500 +5.06 NASDAQ Vol 90 mln NYSE Vol 68 mln

[54anickel]

54. 12:15 - Oh happy days

Dow 11,439.42 +58.27 (+0.51%)
Nasdaq 2,192.46 +8.71 (+0.40%)
S&P 500 1,309.06 +5.24 (+0.40%)
10-yr Bond 4.726 -0.006 (-0.13%)
30-yr Bond 4.877 -0.001 (-0.02%)
NYSE Volume 843,100,000
Nasdaq Volume 670,510,000

12:00 pm : Market is holding onto solid gains midday as investors embrace steady economic trends that suggest the soft landing targeted by the Fed remains on track.

With nothing of note on the earnings calendar and given the Fed's increased policy guidance from "incoming" data, all eyes this morning have been on economic reports, in particular, the August Employment Report. Before the bell, August nonfarm payrolls rose 128K (consensus 125K), which is consistent with the recent trend and good enough to keep the unemployment rate steady; it fell to 4.7% in August from 4.8% in July. Even more encouraging were hourly earnings, which rose just 0.1% (consensus 0.3%), leaving the year-over-year rate at a slightly worrisome 3.9% but still alleviating the worst fears of a significant uptrend in inflation. Providing yet another indication that economic trends remain steady was the 10:00 ET release of the September ISM survey.

From a sector standpoint, Materials (+1.1%) is pacing the way higher, led by a 2.3% surge in Steel; but Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%) is providing the bulk of early leadership, as oil prices slipping below $70 a barrel helps retailers while Starbucks (SBUX 31.95 +0.94) posting a stronger than expected 5% rise in August comps growth provides a floor of support for the restaurant group. Health Care is also acting as a source of notable leadership after a federal judge granted a preliminary injunction ordering Apotex to halt sales of its generic version of Bristol-Myers Squibb's (BMY 22.95 +1.20) drug Plavix while Technology is benefiting from news that Intel (INTC 19.75 +0.18) may cut as many as 10,000 jobs next week to slash $1.0 bln in costs.

Be that as it may, what is shaping up to be one of the lightest volume days of the year, as trading desks continue to thin out heading into the three-day holiday weekend, there is little conviction behind the market's early advance on day one of what the Stock Trader's Almanac has pegged as the worst month of all for stocks. BTK +0.9% DJ30 +62.19 DJTA +0.3% DJUA -0.3% NASDAQ +9.64 NQ100 +0.7% R2K +0.1% SOX -0.7% SP400 +0.4% SP500 +5.99 XOI +0.6% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1305/1510/645 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1163/1872/506 mln

11:30 am : Blue chip averages are now at their best levels of the morning, but that's not all that shocking since the Dow on the first trading day of September has been up 8 out of the last 10 years. Of the price-weighted index's 30 components, only one -- JP Morgan Chase (JPM 45.46 -0.20) -- is posting a loss, which is also not a huge surprise since JPM has been trading near multi-year highs all week.DJ30 +53.39 NASDAQ +5.70 SP500 +4.61 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1309/1453/558 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1167/1805/430 mln

11:00 am : Indices are retracing earlier highs, getting some support from further deterioration in oil prices and an improvement in the Treasury market. Crude oil futures slipping below $70 a barrel have contributed to a turnaround in the Dow Jones Transportation Average and providing a floor of support for retailers while bonds paring their losses have pushed the yield on the 10-yr note, which is now down only 1 tick, back toward session lows at 4.72% and helped the rate-sensitive Financials claw back into positive territory. DJ30 +39.70 DJTA +0.2% NASDAQ +6.26 SP500 +4.43 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1420/1302/470 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1302/1631/352 mln

10:30 am : Sellers return from the sidelines within the last 30 minutes, taking some steam out of an early jobs data-inspired rally, especially on the Nasdaq. Even though the 10:00 ET release of the September ISM survey provided yet another indication that economic trends are very steady and that the soft landing targeted by the Fed remains on track, the absence of leadership in the S&P 500's two most influential sectors -- Financials and Technology, is taking a toll on this morning's buying efforts. Intel (INTC 19.55 -0.02), which was up as much as 1.7% earlier amid reports it may cut as many as 10,000 jobs next week, has since turned negative and is weighing on tech.DJ30 +22.17 NASDAQ +0.70 SOX -1.2% SP500 +2.07 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1296/1312/362 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1266/1577/274 mln

[54anickel]

61. 1:38 and look at 'em go!!!

Dow 11,475.60 +94.45 (+0.83%)
Nasdaq 2,196.80 +13.05 (+0.60%)
S&P 500 1,311.97 +8.15 (+0.63%)
10-yr Bond 4.726 -0.006 (-0.13%)
30-yr Bond 4.873 -0.005 (-0.10%)
NYSE Volume 1,123,945,000
Nasdaq Volume 874,989,000

1:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as a bullish bias remains firmly intact. Advancers outpace decliners on the NYSE by a more than 2-to-1 margin while those on the Nasdaq hold a 9-to-5 edge. Up volume is also outpacing down volume by a healthy margin while the ability by the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq to breach key resistance levels of 11460, 1311 and 2194, respectively, further underscores a positive tone. DJ30 +86.92 NASDAQ +11.81 SP500 +7.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1086/1820/852 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 951/2170/686 mln

1:00 pm : Onward and upward remains the driving mantra today as sellers appear to have gotten a head start on their Labor Day vacation. Oil prices spiking lower to $69.15 a barrel (-1.6%) since the last update have eased some of the nervousness tied to oil's inflationary characteristics, especially heading into the final driving weekend of the summer which tends to result in less demand for gasoline and traders switching their focus to distillate (e.g. heating oil) demand heading into cooler months. Lending even more assurance that buyers remain in control of the action is that Energy seems to be completely ignoring oil's pullback, as the sector hasn't even blinked and is so far holding onto all of its gains (+1.1%).DJ30 +82.84 NASDAQ +13.31 SP500 +7.80 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1153/1723/792 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 968/2132/636 mln

12:30 pm : Market extends its reach to the upside as buying remains widespread across most areas. Even the Energy sector, despite oil prices languishing near session lows, is now putting together an influential advance (+1.0%). To wit, Drillers (+3.8%) is currently today's best performing S&P industry group, led by a 5.7% surge in Transocean (RIG 70.55 +3.80), as a sense that the group has been oversold and should still provide significant earnings growth potential for the S&P 500 invites some bargain hunting interest. Drillers were the fourth worst performing group last month (-10.1%).DJ30 +67.14 NASDAQ +10.48 SP500 +6.24 XOI +0.8% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1233/1625/718 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1092/1982/568 mln



Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 2200 (67%) 1762 (57%)
Declines 953 (29%) 1142 (37%)
Unchanged 123 (3%) 149 (4%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 788 (73%) 520 (61%)
Down Vol* 265 (24%) 304 (36%)
Unch. Vol* 12 (1%) 19 (2%)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 164 83
New Lo's 15 25

[54anickel]

65. High Technology, Enthroned

http://biz.yahoo.com/weekend/loo_1.html

The bathroom has been one of the few places people frequent where digital technology hasn't taken over. Most people use toilets more often than iPods, yet the humble American commode has remained as low tech as things get -- essentially a combination of pipes, levers and flaps.

But computers are now invading the bathroom. For several years, manufacturers have been quietly pushing toilets and toilet seats costing $1,000 or more that use small, built-in computers and remote controls to add new features that warm, wash and dry you. As bathrooms become more upscale and luxurious, a digital toilet fits right in.

This sort of high-tech toilet has long been common in Japan, where hygiene is something of a cultural obsession, and complex gadgets are popular. In fact, the company leading the charge for high-tech toilets in the U.S. has been Toto Ltd., the giant plumbing-fixtures maker from Japan.

snip>

The Swash 800 doesn't have every bell and whistle of the top-of-the-line Toto models. For instance, it doesn't automatically raise and lower the toilet seat. But, like its rivals, it has three main features. The first are retractable, automated wands that spray water to cleanse the relevant body areas. The second is a warm air blower that dries those same spots. The third is a heated seat.

more...

[54anickel]

66. Uh-oh. Hey UIA, did you catch this one on Baker?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x2489044


Baker meets Sunni leaders in Iraq

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Former U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, who heads an independent panel charged with taking a fresh look at U.S. policy in Iraq, met the most senior Sunni leaders in the Iraqi coalition government on Friday.

snip>

Baker, a close friend of the Bush family who served under President George W. Bush's father, sat silently at a news conference held after his meeting with Zobaie.

"James Baker was the engineer of U.S. foreign policy for many years. He has been sent by George Bush personally to find out the reality of what is happening in Iraq," Zobaie said.

His bi-partisan Iraq Study Group has kept a low profile since being set up by Congress in March to study the U.S.-led war in Iraq, which has become increasingly unpopular among Americans ahead of Congressional elections in November.

snip>

Panel members have spoken little of their work. They include retired Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, former CIA director Robert Gates, former Attorney General Edwin Meese and former Defense Secretary William Perry.

more...http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/09/01/AR2006090100522.html

[UpInArms]

69. great group of rightwing fuc*nuts, 54anickel!

:rofl:

Send in the clowns!

Wish I could actually take their machinations seriously - they are just attempting to squirm around in the slime and muck they have crafted and created - they remind me of pigs in a waller

[54anickel]

70. So which George Bush "really" personally sent him? I see Poppy's

fingerprints all over the creation of this group and Baker's recent little trip. Daddy's attempting to cover for the Dimson's f*ck up yet again.

[54anickel]

68. OT - Behind the plan to bomb Iran

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH31Ak01.html

It is no longer a secret that the administration of US President George W Bush has been methodically paving the way toward a bombing strike against Iran. The administration's plans of an aerial military attack against that country have recently been exposed by a number of reliable sources. (1)

There is strong evidence that the US administration's recent public statements that it is now willing to negotiate with Iran are highly disingenuous: they are designed not to reach a diplomatic solution to the so-called "Iran crisis", but to remove diplomatic hurdles toward a military "solution".

The administration's public gestures of a willingness to negotiate with Iran are rendered utterly meaningless because such alleged negotiations are premised on the condition that Iran suspends its uranium-enrichment program.

Considering the fact that suspension of uranium enrichment, which is altogether within Iran's legitimate rights under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, is supposed to be the main point of negotiations, Iran is asked, in effect, "to concede the main point of the negotiations before they started". (2)

The Bush administration's case against Iran is eerily reminiscent of its case against Iraq in the run-up to the invasion of that country. Accordingly, the case against Iran is based not on any hard evidence provided by the International Atomic Energy Agency, but on dubious allegations that are based on even more dubious sources of intelligence. Iran is asked, in effect, to prove a negative, which is of course mission impossible - hence grounds for "non-compliance" and the rationale for "punishment".

The US administration's case against Iran is so weak, its objectives of a military strike against that country are so fuzzy, and the odds against achieving any kind of meaningful victory are so strong that even professional military experts are speaking up against the plans of a bombing campaign against Iran. (3) Furthermore, predominant expert views of such a bombing campaign maintain that it would more likely hurt than help the geopolitical and economic interests of the United States.

more...

[54anickel]

72. Down to the final 15 minutes and all is well

Dow 11,457.03 +75.88 (+0.67%)
Nasdaq 2,193.18 +9.43 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,310.19 +6.37 (+0.49%)
10-yr Bond 4.726 -0.006 (-0.13%)
30-yr Bond 4.873 -0.005 (-0.10%)
NYSE Volume 1,574,771,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,215,088,000

3:30 pm : Range-bound trading persists as buyers remain in complete control going into the close. Nine out of 10 sectors are still trading higher, with Utilities as the only sector bucking the bullish bias whereas Consumer Discretionary and Materials are pacing the way to the upside with gains in excess of 1.0% as more evidence of a "soft landing" makes the landscape for cyclicals more favorable. The Dow and S&P 500 are poised to close at their best levels since mid May while the Nasdaq is on track to close at two-month highs.DJ30 +87.57 NASDAQ +10.76 SP500 +7.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1333/1614/1.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1106/2064/942 mln

3:00 pm : Holding steady at sharply higher levels as buyers continue to rally around low interest rates and falling oil prices. The latter, which also closed earlier than normal due to the holiday weekend, was down 1.6% at $69.13 a barrel -- a two-month low while Treasuries, albeit not making as big a move, still finished the day in the green and with yields on the 10-yr note hovering at 5 1/2 month lows (4.72%), providing an ideal backdrop for investors that have been haunted by increases in both throughout much of the year. DJ30 +85.20 NASDAQ +8.12 SP500 +6.46 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1304/1637/1.06 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1077/2088/874 mln

2:30 pm : Little changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. It is worth noting, though, that volumes continue to taper off late in the day suggesting most trading desks have now emptied (i.e. the bond market closed at 1:00 ET) ahead of the holiday weekend. To wit, the NYSE runs the risk of not even seeing 1.0 bln shares exchange hands this afternoon, leaving the sustainability of today's rally in question since fund managers will return to work next week to decide if August's impressive gains were justified.DJ30 +86.12 NASDAQ +11.06 SP500 +7.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1194/1719/986 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1000/2149/806 mln

2:00 pm : Indices are holding on to the bulk of today's gains with spirited leadership coming from a number of blue chips. Of the 29 Dow components trading higher, General Motors (GM 29.87 +0.69) now paces the way (+2.2%) after it reported a stronger than expected 8% rise in August sales (consensus 5.2%). Rival Ford Motor (F 8.26 -0.11), in contrast, is heading in the opposite direction (-1.4%) after it posted a 12% drop in monthly sales. DJ30 +87.01 NASDAQ +11.09 SP500 +7.45 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1163/1743/924 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 922/2221/750 mln

[UpInArms]

73. I could be wrong (and I frequently am)

but I'd bet a quarter that these power-hungry freaks are going to attempt to keep this market up until after the first Tuesday of November -

this is the only thing that they can wag around with their "the economy is great" crap.

With all of the stock buybacks and merger manias and hedge funds working in tandem, they might be able to make the hologram projection be what people see - and the personal pain that is felt will just be that bewildering niggling in the back of their minds.

See - gas prices are dropping!

See - the stock market is jumping!

Hide your eyes from that ARMs and the lay-offs!

[54anickel]

74. Yep, I hear ya. Those ties with big oil and Wall St run deep. I'm sure

there's been some dealings going on in the background to try and make it happen. I'm guessing this is the quarter where we will see just how much pull the corporate elitists have.

[54anickel]

76. Closing time - reassurance of a soft landing (for now)

Dow 11,464.15 +83.00 (+0.73%)
Nasdaq 2,193.16 +9.41 (+0.43%)
S&P 500 1,311.01 +7.19 (+0.55%)
10-yr Bond 4.726 -0.006 (-0.13%)
30-yr Bond 4.873 -0.005 (-0.10%)
NYSE Volume 1,732,180,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,375,732,000

4:20 pm : The month of September started on an upbeat note thanks to a batch of economic data that validated the Fed's soft landing scenario. Specifically, the ISM Index, which is a gauge of national manufacturing activity slipped to 54.5 from 54.7 in the prior month. A number above 50 reflects expansion, but the August reading clearly marked a deceleration from the 57.3 level seen in April. The market's focal point from an economic perspective, though, was the August employment report and its Goldilocks appearance.

To wit, nonfarm payrolls were up 128,000, which was in line with the consensus estimate and consistent with the recent trend reflecting a moderation in job growth. More importantly, hourly earnings were up just 0.1% in August versus the market's expectation for an increase of 0.3%. While that left the year-over-year increase at 3.9%, it was viewed favorably in the context of recent inflation reports, like the core-CPI and core-PPI data, that suggested the Fed is likely to refrain from raising interest rates at its September 20th FOMC meeting.

In a lightly-traded session, that was enough to keep the market's bullish bias intact ahead of the holiday weekend.

Of the ten economic sectors, utilities (-0.13%) was the only one that failed to register a gain. Meanwhile, 25 of the 30 Dow components ended higher with General Motors (GM 30.27, +1.09) leading the winners following an encouraging sales report. Small-, mid-, and large-cap stocks were all willful participants in the advance as the representative Standard and Poor's averages gained between 0.3% and 0.5%.

The influential semiconductor industry was noticeably absent from the winning session, shedding 1.0%; however, its weakness was really little more than a case of profit taking considering the SOX Index had rallied 3.6% for the week going into Friday's session.

Similarly, Treasuries didn't make much headway today, but that was little cause for concern given that the yield on the 10-year note had dropped roughly six basis points since the end of last week ahead of the employment report. The yield on the 10-year note now stands at 4.72%, which is offering underlying support for stocks.

The stock of the day, arguably, was Bristol-Myers (BMY 22.95, +1.20) as it, and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY 45.37, +0.42) advanced on the back of a judge's decision to issue an injunction halting the production of the generic version of Plavix. Their gains helped out the health care sector, which moved up 0.5%. The materials, telecom services, energy, and consumer discretionary sectors turned in the best showing, though, with each gaining at least 1.0% on the session.

Volume at the NYSE was just over one billion shares, which typified the market's vacation mindset.DJ30 +83.00 NASDAQ +9.41 SP500 +7.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1358/1613/1.36 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1092/2131/1.13 bln


Have a great Labor Day weekend! :hi: