STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday 12 September

[ozymandius]

Tuesday September 12, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 862 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2085 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1791 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1752
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 11, 2006

Dow... 11,396.84 +4.73 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq... 2,173.25 +7.46 (+0.34%)
S&P 500... 1,299.54 +0.62 (+0.05%)
Gold future... 597.30 -20.00 (-3.35%)
30-Year Bond 4.94% +0.02 (+0.49%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.80% +0.03 (+0.59%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Rob Kirby

TO HEDGE IN A HAND BASKET

Businesses who ply their trade in the extractive or natural resource industry have historically been subject to the ups and downs of the business cycle – hence they’ve long been, collectively, branded ‘cyclical stocks.’

Junior exploration and resource companies fulfill the function of prospecting or discovering identifiable new resources to mine. Call this “grunt work” if you will.

Miners and their Hedge Books have been in the news a great deal lately.

Miners have been making news because the sector has been consolidating. Consolidation amongst the miners has stemmed from takeovers and mergers amongst the base metals producers like Inco and Falconbridge, for example, to the precious metals producers too – ones like Goldcorp/Glamis, Barrick/Placer and more recently Barrick’s hostile attempted takeover of Nova Gold. The motivation for this rash of consolidations has been sparked by rising prices for the commodities in question, increased production or run rates to benefit from these higher prices and the inevitable resulting race-to-replace diminishing, finite reserves in the ground. “Cheap and easy money” has made it more attractive to buy and finance existing proven resources than to bother working-for-a-living and actually finding new resources.

-cut-

Recently, inordinate attention has been paid to miner’s Hedge Books. One well documented, highly publicized case – Barrick Gold Corp. – sports a ‘hedge position’ which is short physical gold bullion, that, speaking of bad cards - by some estimates has been “off-side” (underwater but ‘unrealized’ losses for accounting purposes) to the tune of 3 billion dollars.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. One report today

8:30 AM Trade Balance Jul
Briefing Forecast -$65.0B
Market Expects -$65.5B
Prior -$64.8B

[UpInArms]

13. U.S. trade gap widens to record $68.0 bln in July (highest ever)

8:30 AM ET 9/12/06 U.S. JULY CHINA TRADE GAP $19.6 BLN VS $17.6 BLN YR AGO

8:30 AM ET 9/12/06 U.S. JUNE TRADE GAP $64.8, UNREVISED VS PREV EST

8:30 AM ET 9/12/06 U.S. JULY TRADE GAP ABOVE CONSENSUS OF $65.4 BLN

8:30 AM ET 9/12/06 U.S. JULY TRADE GAP SETS NEW RECORD HIGH

8:30 AM ET 9/12/06 U.S. JULY TRADE GAP WIDENS 5% TO RECORD $68.0 BLN

(edited for corrected CBS blurb - prior record was cited incorrectly at $66.3 billion)

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B83D35E2D%2DFC8F%2D467C%2DBB11%2DC6DAD5153529%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. trade deficit widened by 5.0% in July to a record $68.0 billion, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. The July deficit surpasses the previous monthly record of $66.6 billion set in October. The trade deficit was above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists of a deficit of $65.4 billion. The deficit was $64.8 billion in June. Imports rose while exports declined in July. The U.S. trade deficit with China widened to $19.6 billion in compared with $17.6 bln in the same month last year.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil takes breather after six-day retreat

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil steadied near $66 a barrel on Tuesday, with bargain-hunting traders ending a six-day retreat after Iran sounded a softer note on its atomic program and OPEC agreed to keep production steady for now.

U.S. light crude for October delivery climbed 25 cents to $65.86 a barrel by 1024 GMT, after falling 64 cents on Monday and losing more than 4 percent last week. London Brent crude rose 20 cents to $64.75.

Oil on Monday briefly fell below $65 for the first time since March, causing consternation within OPEC, which held a policy-setting meeting in Vienna.

The producer group, which supplies a third of the world's oil, left open the door for its first formal output cut in two and a half years.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/markets_oil_dc

[ozymandius]

4. OPEC Maintains Output, May Consider Cut in December (Update2)

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed to keep production levels unchanged, the group said after its meeting today in Vienna, setting aside concern that prices have tumbled 16 percent in two months.

Chakib Khelil, Algeria's oil minister, said OPEC had decided to maintain its quotas for production. The group will ``watch the market very closely,'' he said. OPEC President Edmund Daukoru said the group was concerned about the ``speed'' of the price decline.

OPEC, which supplies 40 percent of the world's crude, has kept its output target at 28 million barrels a day since July 2005 in a bid to ease record prices. Ministers from member countries, including Saudi Arabia, Algeria and the United Arab Emirates, said they would keep production unchanged at the meeting.

``If prices fall to between $60 to $55 a barrel, they will start expressing concern and talking about a cut, and that alone will send prices up again,'' John Hall, the managing director of John Hall Associates Ltd., a British consulting firm, said in an interview in Vienna. ``So they don't really have to do something about it. Just talking about a cut would be enough.''

more

[ozymandius]

5. BP gets 'first step' OK for bypass line

ANCHORAGE, Alaska - BP PLC has received permission from a state agency to use a bypass line to possibly restart some production from the shuttered eastern side of Prudhoe Bay.

However, other agencies also must approve the plan, and BP hasn't decided whether to even use the bypass system, spokesman Steve Rinehart said Monday.

The plan approved late last week by the Regulatory Commission of Alaska would allow BP to divert oil through Endicott Pipeline Co. lines to the trans-Alaska pipeline. This would allow additional production of 105,000 barrels a day.

-cut-

Rinehart called the commission's approval a "necessary first step." The Alaska Oil and Gas Commission and the state Department of Natural Resources also must approve the plan, and federal officials must give the go-ahead to bring the field back online.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060911/ap_on_bi_ge/oil_field_1

[UpInArms]

23. Oct crude @ $65.45 bbl - NatGas @ $5.755 mln btus

10:01 AM ET 9/12/06 OCT. CRUDE FALLS 16 CENTS TO $65.45/BRL IN EARLY TRADING

10:01 AM ET 9/12/06 OCT. NATURAL GAS CLIMBS 8.5 CENTS TO $5.755/MLN BTUS

[UpInArms]

25. Chevron Could Avoid Paying Federal Government Huge Royalties on New Field

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/12/business/12oil.html?ex=1315713600&en=51c24aea86b161bc&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

WASHINGTON, Sept. 11 — A group of oil companies led by Chevron, which said last week that they had discovered a huge new oil field in the Gulf of Mexico, could avoid more than $1 billion in royalty payments to the federal government for the oil.

The potential bonus to Chevron and its partners stems from a mistake the Interior Department made in signing offshore leases in the late 1990’s for drilling in federal waters. The magnitude of the oil discovery — estimated in a range of 3 billion to 15 billion barrels — is likely to intensify a battle in Congress over incentives for drilling in publicly owned waters.

Under pressure from lawmakers, Chevron and other big producers have said that they would renegotiate their leases. But they have not said how much they are willing to give up, and the Interior Department has virtually no bargaining power under current law.

Chevron and its partners, Devon Energy and Statoil ASA of Norway, have six leases in the Jack oil field, about 175 miles off the coast of Louisiana. Two of the leases allow the companies to avoid royalties on as much as 87.5 million barrels of oil per lease.

The benefit, known as royalty relief, was supposed to be halted if the price of oil climbed above $36 a barrel. But that restriction was omitted on all leases signed in 1998 and 1999, including the two held by Chevron and its partners.

The exact value of the potential break on federal payments will depend both on the price of oil and how much of it comes from the two leases. At $70 a barrel, the Chevron group could save about $1.5 billion in royalties if the government agreed that both leases were contributing to Chevron’s production.

...more...

[ozymandius]

6. Ford sees no sign of housing weakness in sales

DETROIT (Reuters) - A top official at Ford Motor Co. (F.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Monday that the automaker isn't seeing any signs that the U.S. housing market slowdown is prompting consumers to pull back on car and truck purchases.

Speaking at the Reuters Auto Summit in Detroit, Cisco Codina, the company's North American sales chief, said that while sales of larger pickup trucks had slowed in some overheated real-estate markets, such as Las Vegas, the broader consumer market continued to be supported by what he characterized as relatively benign economic factors.

"So far we haven't seen an effect from housing," Codina said. "Interest rates are still fairly good. Employment is still fairly good. And gas prices have come down. And I think the federal government is ready to take action if they see a recession coming."

very short

So what would explain the decline in Ford car and truck purchases? Business model perhaps?

[ozymandius]

7. This has been a very short morning.

:donut:
Due to the fact that I overslept by half an hour.

Thanks to 54anickel for turning out the lights yesterday. It was very late when I tuned in.

I would like to ask anyone for some advice. I am setting up my wife's new iMac. We would like to share a single DSL connection. Would it be okay to use a USB hub for two computers or should we invest in a router? Thanks in advance for giving this consideration.

Have a great day!

Ozy :hi:

[acmejack]

8. Buy a router!

It has the advantage of providing the security of a hardware firewall (a good thing). I like the Netgear Prosafe series personally.

edit, pm if you need any tech type input. I am an ignoramus about the stock market but a little more comfortable in matters technical ;)

[skids]

26. That would be USB abuse.

Despite various vendor efforts to run networking over USB, USB is not really up for the job. Especially if the USB controllers are of the older UHCI variety often found in PCs.

You'll get much more reliable, not to mention safer, performance by using ethernet cards and a router.

[Egnever]

29. just want to add my vote for a router

I would go with a wireless one if possible and also one of the newer ones with the N technology.

You may not use the wireless now but it is a nice option to have in the future and the difference in cost really isn't that great. Also The new N technology routers have a much wider range than the standard 802.11 ones. Again not a necessity but if you are going to do it might as well do it right the first time. I am currently a belkin fan but most are dependable.

[54anickel]

32. Fly by post with a vote for the router. If you do go with the wireless

support, take the time to configure it rather than plug it in and run with the defaults. Especially with you being in an urban area.

Crap, my sister is out in the suburbs with the houses pretty well spread out. I went out to work on her system as it was actly weird and slow. Without going into detail, basically the neighbor guy had been surfing the net on her dime for quite a while (without her knowledge). When he decided to get his own router and broadband hook-up, he happened to purchased the same brand and was also flying with the default settings. I changed her SSID and that settled thing down. Then I configured her wireless to only allow access to a list of know MAC addresses (family laptops). And of course, changed the default administration password!!!

[UpInArms]

9. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 85.77 Change -0.15 (-0.17%)

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: Will US Trade Balance Be Top Dollar Concern?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__Will_US_1158017096601.html

US Trade Balance (JUL) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)

Consensus: -$65.5B
Previous: -$64.8B

Outlook: The US trade balance is predicted to have widened in July, as the price of crude oil reached a fresh all-time high of $77.03 a barrel on July 14th. Surging energy costs are likely to outweigh the predicted gain in exports, which likely inched higher on increased foreign demand. According to the US Commerce Department, orders for domestically produced durable goods increased on the month, with foreign firms making up a portion of increased demand for US goods. Regardless, these increases are unlikely to match the pace of the soaring costs of oil imports. The overall foreign currency market impact of this release will be tempered, however, with market expectations of future budget deficit improvements as commodity prices recede. Regardless, it will be interesting to see whether tomorrow’s release will have an impact on considerations for the upcoming G7 meeting in Singapore. Given a US trade deficit at all-time highs, discussions will likely entertain the notion of how to improve global imbalances. Namely, American officials will likely further pressure China to revalue its currency, with potential for sympathetic gains in the Japanese Yen.

Previous: The world’s largest trade deficit narrowed in June as US exports gained on the month. Still, net foreign imports exceeded domestic exports by a substantial $64.8 billion, which was only marginally better than the previous month’s $65.0 billion figure. Analysts say that further improvement was made virtually impossible by heady gains in a rising oil import bill and consumer demand for other foreign goods. To that effect, recently receding energy prices should lead to an overall improvement in the number. Regardless, it is likely that the US deficit will stay close to record highs until we can see oil and other commodity prices fall below their recent trends. The US will continue to depend on net foreign investment inflows to pay for the net purchase of foreign goods. Thus it will be important to monitor upcoming Treasury inflows reports to see if net purchases of US assets will outweigh the large trade deficit.

...more...

[UpInArms]

10. China's Trade Surplus Sets Another Record

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/12/business/worldbusiness/12yuan.html?ex=1315713600&en=018d9f87b1ab0edc&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

(free registration or try www.bugmenot.com)

HONG KONG, Sept. 11 — China’s trade surplus with the world ballooned last month to $18.8 billion as exports soared, setting a fourth consecutive monthly record, according to preliminary customs figures released on Monday.

The surplus gives fresh ammunition to requests by American and European officials that China intervene less in currency trading to hold down the value of its currency, the yuan. Letting market forces set the yuan’s value could lead to faster appreciation of the currency, making Chinese exports less competitive and making imported foreign goods more competitive in China.

Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. is scheduled to visit Beijing late next week in his first visit to China since he took office in July. But having cooperated closely with Chinese officials as chairman and chief executive of Goldman Sachs before moving to the Treasury, Mr. Paulson has taken a low-key approach in coordinating Bush administration policies toward China and has thus skirted confrontation so far.

Mr. Paulson will first attend the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, which are Sept. 19 and 20 in Singapore. That gathering is also likely to include a review of the effectiveness of these institutions in working with countries that persistently run trade surpluses but resist currency appreciation.

...more...

[AnneD]

11. Morning Marketeers,

:donut: and lurkers. Well, what about this gasoline limbo...how low can it go. More importantly, do you think the low prices have started far enough in advance for folks to be fooled by Bush's economic policy? If this doesn't prove that Bush is tight with oil, I don't know what would. If memory serves-fuel prices dropped in 2004 before the election.

The oil producing companies walk a fine line on pricing. Too high of a price and the consumers find other methods of energy. I think they overshot their hand this time (as opposed to the oil embargo in the 70's) and folks are making permanent changes to reduce their consumption of oil.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[AnneD]

17. Creative commuters find lots of reasons to ditch their cars

<snip>

Car-free commuting is common in large cities with extensive public transportation, or in famously bicycle-friendly cities like Portland, Ore., but higher gasoline prices are making people wonder if they can get to work without cars.

A survey by the Pew Research Center in June found 55 percent of drivers said they had cut back on driving in response to high gas prices.

<snip>

Cost of transportation
In 2004, U.S. households spent an average of $650 a month on transportation, of which a fifth was gasoline and oil, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The rest was mainly the cost of the car, insurance and repairs. Only $37 was spent on public transportation, which includes air travel.

"What the high price of gasoline has done is, it's shone a spotlight on how expensive the cars are," said Chris Balish, a TV journalist and author of the just published book How to Live Well Without Owning a Car.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4175242.html

[AnneD]

12. Nest egg distribution guru revises figures.....

If there were a hero award in financial planning, William Bengen would be a shoo-in for nomination. The Southern California Certified Financial Planner does more than financial planning for his clients. He also does original research that is more important to you and me than the vast majority of the investment research from Wall Street.
<snip>
While Wall Street concentrates on accumulating money through investment returns, Bengen is one of the leaders in distribution research, the arcane study of portfolio survival when we are taking money from our nest egg rather than adding new savings.

His research, published 12 years ago in the Journal of Financial Planning, warned about the dangers of taking much more than 4 percent a year from a retirement portfolio.

His more recent research, published five years ago in the same journal, told us we could safely withdraw 5 percent a year by establishing a "floor and ceiling" rule for distributions in bull and bear markets.

more info..... good pre retirement info

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/headline/biz/4174392.html

[AnneD]

14. Designer of a Bush logo seeks a 'W' in courtroom

The wildly popular oval "W" stickers sported nationwide by supporters of President Bush's 2004 re-election bid are at the center of a federal copyright case in Texarkana. This week, a judge set a Nov. 7 trial date.

Jerry Gossett of Wichita Falls claims the stickers are based on his idea, which he copyrighted in 2001. He accuses the Republican National Committee and campaign material maker Spalding Group of stealing his concept after he pitched it to them.

<Big snip>

While this consonantal divide lurches toward a courtroom showdown in the northeasternmost corner of Texas, another variation on the theme is marking car windows and bumpers around the state.

Independent gubernatorial candidate Kinky Friedman is hawking black stickers with a large white "K" — similar to the current "W" model — followed by "For Governor."

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/front/4173995.html

with friends like the RNC...who needs enemies :eyes: I know this has been on this thread before but I thought the Nov court date was ironic.

[UpInArms]

15. Treasurys off after trade gap baloons to record level

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=7d65abe6-77fa-4f90-9136-20c92f691d66&siteid=mktw&dist=MorePulse

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury prices remained slightly lower early Tuesday, pushing yields up a bit, after the Commerce Department reported that the trade gap in July widened a full 5% to $68 billion, a new record. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast a deficit of $65.4 billion. At 1 p.m. Eastern the Treasury Department will hold an auction of 10-year notes. San Francisco Federal Reserve President Janet Yellen is expected to speak after the close of trade. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note last was off 3/32 at 100-15/32 with a yield ($TNX : 48.15, +0.16, +0.3% ) of 4.814%.

[UpInArms]

21. Printing Press Hums: Fed adds bank reserves via overnight system repos

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-12T133435Z_01_N12344015_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it added temporary reserves to the U.S. banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds traded at 5.25 percent -- the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate -- at the time of the operation.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[UpInArms]

22. Treasuries dip as 10-yr sale, corporate supply weigh

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-12T133904Z_01_N12385103_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-3.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. government debt prices slipped on Tuesday ahead of a tide of corporate bond issuance and an auction of 10-year Treasury notes later in the session, which overshadowed a record U.S. trade deficit.

Treasuries remained fairly steady at lower prices as traders focused on the $8 billion reopening of 10-year notes scheduled for 1 p.m. (1700 GMT), a major test of demand for the benchmark security.

"We do have a 10-year auction and I would expect the market to drift lower heading into it," said William O'Donnell, head of U.S. interest rate strategy and research with UBS in Stamford, Connecticut.

Ten-year notes <US10YT=RR> were down 3/32 in price for a yield of 4.82 percent, versus 4.81 percent late on Monday. Bond yields and prices move inversely.

While the trade deficit widened to $68.04 billion in July, well above economists' median forecast for $65.50 billion, analysts attributed the gap partly to a temporary spike in crude oil prices and said the figures did little to alter views of the economy.

...more...

[UpInArms]

27. Printing Press in Overdrive: Fed adds bank reserves by buying coupons

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-12T145458Z_01_N12311693_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-FED-OPERATIONS-UPDATE-1.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve said on Tuesday it added permanent reserves to the U.S. banking system by buying coupons.

The Fed bought coupons with maturities ranging from April 15, 2009 to January 15, 2010.

There were five exclusions.

Earlier, the Fed added temporary reserves to the banking system through overnight system repurchase agreements.

Fed funds traded at 5.25 percent -- the Fed's target for the benchmark overnight lending rate -- at the time of both operations.

For further details on the operation, see http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/omo/dmm/temp.cfm

[Egnever]

30. And yet the dollar is still climbing

Something is terribly wrong with this picture.

[UpInArms]

31. 10-yr Treas Auction has PondScumSucking Indirect Bid

1:08 PM ET 9/12/06 <$TNX> 10-YR TREASURY AUCTION 18.8% INDIRECT BID

1:08 PM ET 9/12/06 <$TNX> 10-YR TREASURY AUCTION HAS 4.797% MEDIAN YIELD

1:08 PM ET 9/12/06 <$TNX> 10-YR TREASURY AUCTION HAS 4.810% HIGH YIELD

1:07 PM ET 9/12/06 <$TNX> 10-YR TREASURY HAS 2.91 BID-TO-COVER RATIO

[UpInArms]

34. I want some of whatever these liars are smokin

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-09-12T173023Z_01_N12482212_RTRIDST_0_MARKETS-BONDS-UPDATE-6.XML

NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices were mostly unchanged on Tuesday afternoon after better-than-expected demand for a Treasury 10-year note auction caused the market to erase narrow losses.

The $8 billion of reopened 10-years were sold at a high yield of 4.810 percent and a bid-to-cover ratio -- an indication of demand -- of 2.91, above the average of 2.8 for the last two such reopenings this year.

"The auction results were a little bit better than expected," said Christopher Rupkey, vice president and senior financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi. "The 2.91 bid to cover ratio was above the average for the last four auctions and even stronger than in August, which was a refunding."


Indirect bidders, which include customers of primary dealers and foreign central banks, took $1.50 billion or 18.7 percent of the auction, above an average of 9.8 percent for the last two such reopenings this year.

"The indirect bid, also known as a measure of foreign interest, was not bad," Rupkey commented.

...more...

Here's an article from last month from TownHall (a rightwing site) regarding indirect bidding:

http://www.townhall.com/News/newsarticle.aspx?ContentGuid=46e24d18-685c-40f3-84c5-864b8ff5e275

Treasury sold $13 billion 10-year notes at a high rate of 4.93 percent, a little above the pre-auction level of 4.925 percent. The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.23 and non-primary dealers or what is called the indirect bid took 30.3 percent of the sale. Bidding by indirect buyers, who include foreign and domestic institutional investors and central banks, was just under the May refunding sale's 30.7 percent.

Treasury will complete its August refunding of debt sales with the auction of $10 billion 30-year bonds Thursday.

[UpInArms]

35. indirect bid for the five-year note was indeed weak, with just 18.3%

because I'm starting to feel a little crazy

Treasury Prices Fall Ahead of Fed Decision

Wednesday, June 28, 2006

http://www.townhall.com/News/NewsArticle.aspx?ContentGuid=9157d4da-27bd-4c89-a85a-0675b8c202d2

In the end, the indirect bid for the five-year note was indeed weak, with just 18.3 percent of demand coming from domestic and foreign institutional buyers and central banks. That's the lowest so-called indirect bid for five-year notes in three years. As a result, dealers ended holding 80 percent of the $14 billion sold.

[UpInArms]

50. Fed's Yellen Proves She's Certifiable and Stoopid

4:53 PM ET 9/12/06 YELLEN: BUILDERS DO SEEM FEARFUL

4:51 PM ET 9/12/06 FED'S YELLEN DOESN'T SEE A HOUSING BUBBLE

[UpInArms]

16. Hiring plans stuck in neutral/But certain skills remain in demand:Manpower

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/CWkPchnnVgLkMPWSmwqkzmd?siteid=mktw&dist=morenews

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Overall, employers refuse to budge on their hiring plans, according to the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey. Twenty percent of firms surveyed said they will be open to hiring in the upcoming fourth quarter, about flat with the 21% who said they intended to hire in the third quarter this year.

For more than two years -- 11 quarters, to be exact -- the portion of firms who said they planned to hire has hovered around 20%. Milwaukee-based Manpower surveys about 16,000 U.S. companies on their hiring plans each quarter.

The current outlooks "tells us that this past year's pressures weren't enough to shake employer confidence and their intent to hire," said Jonas Prising, Manpower's president for the North America region.

Manpower's seasonally adjusted net-employment numbers measure the percentage of firms planning to hire minus those intending layoffs. It doesn't measure the number of jobs.

In 2000, before the economic downturn, about 30% of firms said they planned to hire, according to Manpower's seasonally-adjusted net employment figure. Meanwhile, the lowest point in recent years was about 5% in the first quarter of 2002. You have to look back to the first quarter of 1991 to find the last negative net-employment figure.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. pre-opening blather

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.2.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.8. Still shaping up to be a lackluster open for equities as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures remain just below the unchanged mark. Aside from Goldman's upbeat earnings announcement offering some reassurance about profit growth, Credit Suisse upgrading the chip equipment sector, another pullback in oil prices and McDonald's (MCD) reporting better than expected August comps are a few other positive news items that are improving sentiment heading into the opening bell.

08:32 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.0. Futures trade has improved since the last update following a solid Q3 report from Goldman Sachs (GS), but indications still suggest a sluggish start for the indices. Just hitting the wires, the Commerce Dept. reports that the U.S. trade deficit widened in July to a record $68.0 bln (consensus -$65.5 bln). Reaction in both stocks and bonds, however, has been relatively muted.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.5. Early indications are signaling another weak start for stocks. While a thwarted terrorist attack on the U.S. embassy in Damascus, Syria is underpinning a sense of early uneasiness, investors are also showing some reserve ahead of key earnings reports, especially after Texas Instruments (TXN) narrowed its Q3 sales and EPS estimates, and a report at 8:30 ET which may show the third largest ever trade deficit.

[UpInArms]

19. Stoopid falls out: Deficits not a problem in short run, White House says

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B071E004A%2D5AB8%2D467F%2DA1AD%2D2CAED94860C7%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Persistent budget and current account deficits are not a problem in the short run, top White House economic adviser Edward Lazear said Tuesday. Speaking to the National Association for Business Economics, Lazear said the federal budget deficit "is actually in pretty good shape" in historic terms. Lazear said the current account deficit is not sustainable at the current levels, but he said he expects a gradual reduction. "In the short run, it's important that we continue" to attract capital from foreigners, he said. Lazear spoke as the Commerce Department reported a record $68 billion deficit in trade of goods and services in July.

[UpInArms]

20. markets open with a spring to their step

Dow 11,420.05 +23.21 (+0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,178.57 +5.32 (+0.24%)
S&P 500 1,302.60 +3.06 (+0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.817 +0.018 (+0.38%)

NYSE Volume 90,226,000
Nasdaq Volume 64,824,000

[UpInArms]

24. Whee! Autos from India! Foreign Automakers See India as Exporter

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/12/business/worldbusiness/12auto.html?ex=1315713600&en=b26e8f56b78c8b8d&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

MUMBAI, India, Sept. 11 — India’s quest to be a leading carmaker has received a vigorous boost in recent days, with a parade of global companies unfurling plans to assemble cars for domestic sale and export.

The recent announcements — by BMW, Suzuki, Nissan, Volkswagen, Honda and Toyota — reflect the allure of selling cars to many echelons of a society where a growing number of people have more disposable income.

The government recently forecast that automobile sales would soar to $145 billion in 2016 from $34 billion this year and account then for one-tenth of the nation’s economic output.

At the top end of the market, BMW announced late last month that it would assemble cars in India for the first time and aim for the widening sliver of the new rich. Next year, it will open a $25 million plant in the southern port of Chennai, formerly Madras, that will manufacture 1,000 3 Series and 5 Series models, with a peak capacity of 1,700 cars a year. But the plant, which will produce existing model cars, is an anomaly because most manufacturers are creating models for the Indian market.

Producers are inventing smaller cars to cater to emerging value-conscious consumers. They would then try to export those made-for-India cars around the world, seeking efficiencies from large-scale output.

...more...

[AnneD]

33. I hope they work on ....

quality control, otherwise they can forget it. Their cars will rest in the junk yard beside the Yugo.....

But if they imported autorickshaws, I'd buy one in a minute. The best and most fun way we traveled in Hydrabad. We have an Ambassador, which was fun too (reminded me of the cars of my childhood).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auto_rickshaw

http://www.indianarc.com/autorickshaws.php

http://auto.indiamart.com/cars/ambassador/


edited to say that..they say you can only seat 3 on an autorickshaw but I have seen at least 10 school kids crammed into one and 5 adults on occasion. It is not uncommon to see an entire family on a motorcycle. Two kids between mom and dad and one sitting between dad and handle bars, moms scarf blowing in the wind. Traffic in India goes no faster than 30-35 mhh.

[UpInArms]

28. Greed, speculation helped overheat housing market: Toll CEO

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BDFF933DD%2DD746%2D4A56%2DAFB5%2DA53A916DF126%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL : 27.90, +1.28, +4.8% ) Chief Executive Robert Toll said the U.S. housing market got ahead of itself due to greed on the part of buyers and sellers, and that it now likely faces the highest level of speculative inventory ever. Toll said the current downturn is unique in his experience because it wasn't driven by a "macro-event" although interest rates have risen steadily. "Every day there's an article about how lousy housing is now and how dumb you have to be to buy a house now," the CEO said Tuesday at the Credit Suisse Homebuilders Symposium. "I don't know what it will take to turn this market -- it could take two years, or it could take someone getting quoted in the New York Times saying the market has hit bottom."

Notice this greedhead doesn't mention "builders" as being anywhere near the faultline. :eyes:

[UpInArms]

36. Another GreedHead: D.R. Horton CEO says 2007 will be worse than 2006

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B2EF984F1%2D3820%2D45DE%2D96D7%2D4DACED5CD6FA%7D&dist=newsfinder&symbol=&siteid=mktw

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Don Tomnitz, chief executive of D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI : 23.80, +1.45, +6.5% ) , Tuesday said the company is preparing itself for a tougher housing market in 2007 compared to 2006, with prices finally stabilizing in 2008. "We have never seen housing prices and demand slow as quickly as they have during this downcycle," said the CEO of the nation's largest home builder when measured by 2005 deliveries. "Demand has evaporated to the extent of about 20% to 30% for the industry, and in a tighter timeframe than we've seen before." The use of incentives by builders to move homes in a slower sales environment will continue for the next three to four quarters, Tomnitz estimated at the Credit Suisse Homebuilders Symposium.

[wordpix]

45. well what do these greedy developers expect when a tiny fixer-upper in the

NYC or DC suburbs costs $400-450K? And with mansions being built in quiet but modest neighborhoods, the modest homeowner now has to pay $5000 or so in property taxes for a teeny tiny home. Sheesh. These asses deserve to get their balloons burst.

[wordpix]

44. Overbuilding in environmentally sensitive areas is this developer's game

Now he's singing the greedy developers' blues. :rofl: :nopity:

[UpInArms]

37. OT: We have not forgotten, Mr. President

This hole in the ground

Half a lifetime ago, I worked in this now-empty space. And for 40 days after the attacks, I worked here again, trying to make sense of what happened, and was yet to happen, as a reporter.

All the time, I knew that the very air I breathed contained the remains of thousands of people, including four of my friends, two in the planes and -- as I discovered from those "missing posters" seared still into my soul -- two more in the Towers.

And I knew too, that this was the pyre for hundreds of New York policemen and firemen, of whom my family can claim half a dozen or more, as our ancestors.

I belabor this to emphasize that, for me this was, and is, and always shall be, personal.

And anyone who claims that I and others like me are "soft,"or have "forgotten" the lessons of what happened here is at best a grasping, opportunistic, dilettante and at worst, an idiot whether he is a commentator, or a Vice President, or a President.

<snip>

The polite phrase for how so many of us were duped into supporting a war, on the false premise that it had 'something to do' with 9/11 is "lying by implication."

The impolite phrase is "impeachable offense."

...more...

[wordpix]

48. KO is too kind: "May this country forgive you [Bush]." I do not forgive

BushCo, nor will I ever, for their duping the country into war in Iraq for no good reason except to make themselves and their buds in the military-industrial-Congressional complex rich on war and oil profits. There is no forgiveness in my heart for ANY of these a-holes who have dragged us down, killed, maimed and bankrupted us. My only hope is they all end up in jail with their war profits returned to the Treasury to help war veterans, their families and the refugees they created overseas. I will perhaps forgive only when all of Bushco are in jail with their war profits liquidated to benefit those they've dispossessed.

[AnneD]

49. I say we forgive them....

after we turn them over to the Hague for prosecution as war criminals (of course we will have frozen their asssets for distribution to first responders and WTC workers with chronic resp. problems, the folks around the Gulf coast that were driven from their homes due to sorry gov. response, the citizens of Iraq for war reparations, the families of the dead servicemen and women and the wounded veterans, those improperly detained at Gitmo and those detained and tortured at CIA prisons and Iraq,etc.). I know the list is longer, we just don't know the extent.

[specimenfred1984]

38. Seriously Fraudulent Pumping/Buying Today

5 blatent pumps today, huge volume pumps in the S&P futures followed by very low volume in between the pumps.

What a hideous fake our markets have become. My guess it's Goldman today.

[UpInArms]

39. 2:56 EST - having ecstacy attack - numbers and blather

Dow 11,503.53 +106.69 (+0.94%)
Nasdaq 2,214.61 +41.36 (+1.90%)
S&P 500 1,313.09 +13.55 (+1.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.771 -0.028 (-0.58%)

NYSE Volume 2,124,500,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,519,086,000

2:30 pm : The correlation between falling oil prices and rising stock prices is unmistakable today as the commodity aggressively selling off into the close of trading on the NYMEX continues to provide a floor of support for equities. Crude oil prices have now slipped below $64 a barrel and are on pace to close down nearly 3%. As a reminder, oil's 1.1% pullback yesterday contributed to a 3.1% drubbing in the Energy sector. The fact that oil stocks are holding up rather well considering, with Energy down only 1.1%, also adds a sense of relief since Energy is responsible for such a large percentage of the earnings growth on the S&P 500. DJ30 +84.12 NASDAQ +32.88 SP500 +11.10 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 916/2026/1.31 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 903/2320/1.14 bln

2:00 pm : Onward and upward remains the driving mantra today as a renewed wave of buying interest fueled by a turnaround in Treasuries spikes the indices to new highs. Within the last 30 minutes, bond yields have fallen across the curve after a reopening of an August 10-year note auction enjoyed the strongest indirect bidder participation since September 2005. The 10-yr note is up 5 ticks to yield 4.78%. Since higher interest rates spark valuation concerns among growth stocks, it's not a big surprise to the see the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+1.2%) more aggressively embrace the decline in bond yields and continue to turn in the best performance among the majors. Faring even better has been the Russell 2000, as lower yields improve the borrowing power of smaller companies.DJ30 +80.15 NASDAQ +26.74 R2K +1.8% SP500 +9.24 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 872/2046/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 936/2270/1.02 bln

1:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as bargain hunters continue to believe Nasdaq-listed issues offer the best value at current levels. To wit, networking (+2.7%) and semiconductors (+1.9%), two of the tech sector’s most beaten-down areas this year, are among today’s best performers, as simple valuation models suggest that stocks as a whole are as much as 30% undervalued relative to interest-bearing alternatives. DJ30 +60.11 NASDAQ +19.71 SP500 +7.08 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 911/1987/1.06 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 931/2253/926 mln

1:00 pm : Indices are back to making fresh session highs as further deterioration in oil keeps buyers in complete control of today's action. Crude oil futures have recently touched $64.60 a barrel (-1.2%), the commodity's lowest level since March 28. With policy makers recently citing higher energy prices as putting upward pressure on overall inflation, oil prices now nearly 18% below record levels bodes well for the market's outlook, especially with the next FOMC meeting just eight days away. DJ30 +67.15 NASDAQ +22.45 SP500 +7.82 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 918/1958/950 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 955/2204/836 mln

12:30 pm : Market settles into a relatively narrow trading range as investors work their way through the New York lunch hour. Energy (-0.6%), however, has since displaced Utilities (-0.5%) as today's worst performing sector, as oil prices slip back below $65 a barrel and Treasuries pare some of their intraday losses, while Consumer Staples has recently inched into the red as Food Retail (-1.1%) remains one of today's worst performers.DJ30 +61.15 NASDAQ +18.71 SP500 +7.20 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 910/1935/832 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 874/2259/734 mln

[Roland99]

40. Was just checking volume. Guess Marketwatch needs to update their text

was showing 1.33 billion shares on NYSE. Thought that was awfully light.

[specimenfred1984]

41. Too bad it's all a fraud, it'd be nice to invest in something real

These market prices will come tumbling down as fast as they're going up when the fraudsters dump their pumps, probably by Friday.

Funny how good demand for bonds turns into good demand for stocks when the same hypesters says that bonds are way overvalued compared to stocks and, that more debt for small businesses somehow means they'll have more money to invest when they're also paying off more debt.

The propaganda machine doesn't even try to make sense anymore. Stocks and bonds used to trade inversely, with the idea that if money is going into bonds there's less money going into stocks and viceversa. And hey, let's just not even mention that real estate is in the toilet now and big banks/investment houses like Goldman are going to get whacked hard.

All the more reason for them to pump up stocks, real or not.

[wordpix]

42. yeah, would like to invest in Energy Independence stocks such as solar,

wind, geothermal, recycling and biofuels but there's virtually no index or mutual fund like that to invest in so you have to pick individual stocks, which I don't have time to research.

[UpInArms]

43. Dismissed lawyer to continue fight for SEC files (*Co Crony John Mack case

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B62B3255D%2D239C%2D4B91%2DB9DA%2D873BED5DC5CD%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A former attorney for the Securities and Exchange Commission said Tuesday he will continue to press the agency for documents related to an insider trading case and his dismissal from the SEC, following the agency's denial of his request for the records.

On Friday, the SEC said it wouldn't hand over documents about the firing of former agency lawyer Gary Aguirre or a case involving hedge fund Pequot Capital Management.

"My attorneys will be requesting the court to compel the SEC to produce the records," Aguirre said Tuesday.
Aguirre, who was dismissed from the SEC in September 2005, says the SEC blocked his investigation of Pequot when it got too close to John Mack, a former chief of Credit Suisse and currently the CEO of Morgan Stanley (MS : 68.61, +1.94, +2.9% ) . Mack is a major fundraiser for President Bush.

But in court documents filed Friday, the SEC denied that Mack's political connections quashed the probe into insider-trading at Pequot. See full story.

An SEC spokesman repeated Tuesday that the agency's investigation of Aguirre's allegations is "continuing with an open mind and no final conclusions have been drawn."

...more...

[UpInArms]

46. Corporations fear the truth of individuals at Wikipedia

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA449A54F%2D8662%2D4100%2DA268%2DB34BBADC2D11%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Companies are wasting some of the millions of dollars spent each year to improve their visibility and ranking in search engines such as Google and Yahoo. That's because Wikipedia, the Internet's encyclopedic reference resource, has become so prominent. And because it's written by individuals, not companies, some of the entries can be critical.

Reporting on a survey of dozens of major brands, blogger and public relations specialist Steve Rubel reports the Wikipedia pages of dozens of brands rank high in the search engines. "This means that millions (of people) who hear about products through (the spending of) billions of dollars of advertising, and then turn to Google to research them are likely influenced by what Wikipedia says," writes Rubel. And that's trouble, with a capital T.

For instance, take Home Depot's page(HD : 36.73, +1.67, +4.8% ) . "Among a lot of neutral-to-positive information, you will learn there have been several cases where illegal drugs were found inside some Home Depot merchandise in Massachusetts," Rubel wrote. The second most popular search result for Febreeze, the fabric softener, is Wikipedia's entry on the company noting the product may be harmful to pets. The McDonald's (MCD : 38.08, +0.96, +2.6% ) Wikipedia entry takes a lot of space recapping the movie "Super Size Me." Not the kind of material McDonald's would prefer to be offered.

While Wikipedia is open for anyone to modify, Rubel cautions product managers not to get involved. "This community can and will sniff out corporate manipulation of entries," Rubel warns. His suggestion: Wikipedia should carve out an area on each page where brand managers can respond in an official capacity.

...more...

I say - no freakin' way to that "carve out" request. Those jokers have billions of dollars to spend - go spend them. Our true voices count for the most - they are not paid for - we are using our own airspace - they can just shove it up their P&Ls.

[wordpix]

47. 3:58 pm numbers

Intraday Chart
Dow 11,490.65 +93.81
Nasdaq 2,213.34 +40.09
S&P 1,312.34 +12.80
10-Yr Note 100.81 +0.25

[UpInArms]

51. closing numbers and blather

Dow 11,498.09 +101.25 (+0.89%)
Nasdaq 2,215.82 +42.57 (+1.96%)
S&P 500 1,313.11 +13.57 (+1.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.773 -0.026 (-0.54%)

NYSE Volume 2,800,857,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,047,451,000

Stocks extended their winning streak to three days in convincing fashion Tuesday as plunging oil prices helped ease the worst of inflation fears and helped restore investor confidence in corporate profit growth, which got an additional boost from falling bond yields and a couple of upbeat earnings reports.

Improving what was initially shaping up to be a dismal day for stocks, as investors dealt with a thwarted terrorist attack on the U.S. embassy in Syria, was a solid Q3 report from Goldman Sachs Group (GS 158.25 +7.25). The company handily beat analysts' forecasts and also announced a 60 mln share buyback, representing roughly 15% of its common stock, which plays into our positive outlook on investment banks. The latter helped pace solid gains in the financial sector, which we recently upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight.

As if Goldman's report wasn't enough to restore excitement throughout the influential Financial sector, a late-day turnaround in Treasuries which pushed bond yields lower across the curve provided an extra spark to the rate-sensitive sector. Bonds turned the corner around 1:30 ET after a reopening of an August 10-year note auction enjoyed the strongest indirect bidder participation since September 2005.

Since consumer debt burdens increase alongside rising bond yields and consumption patterns come under pressure amid rising oil prices, declines in the costs of borrowing and a 2.8% drop in crude oil futures lit a fire underneath the Consumer Discretionary sector, which turned in the day's best performance. Pacing sector gains was Best Buy (BBY 52.18 +4.41), which soared 9.2% after beating expectations and forecasting a strong second half for 2006 due to a mix shift toward higher ticket items like flat panel TVs. McDonald's (MCD 38.20 +1.08) surging to six-year highs after reporting better than expected August comps also lent some notable sector support and helped the Dow close at a four-month high.

Crude oil closed below $64 a barrel for the first time since March 23 after two big agencies (IEA and EIA) cut their demand forecasts and BP said it will ask the government this week to restart part of the Prudhoe Bay pipeline sooner than expected if inspections prove positive. The Energy sector (-0.6%) slipped along with oil prices, but didn't suffer too badly overall. As a reminder, oil's 1.1% pullback on Monday contributed to a 3.1% drubbing in the Energy sector.

Another sector acting as an influential leader to the upside was Technology. The sector was in focus following several new product introductions from Apple Computer (AAPL 72.63 +0.13) and gains in Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 36.91 +0.55), which regained some upside momentum after announcing that CEO Mark Hurd will succeed Patricia Dunn as chairman in January. Providing additional sector support was strong follow-through buying in the semiconductor space, as analyst upgrades on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 26.42 +0.76) and the chip equipment sector -- one of today's best performing S&P industry groups (+5.5%). Strength in that area helped investors eventually bid up shares of Texas Instruments (TXN 31.37 -0.41), which was off as much as 2.4% after it narrowed Q3 sales and EPS estimates after Monday's close. DJ30 +101.25 NASDAQ +42.57 SP500 +13.58 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 810/2195/1.91 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 806/2478/1.63 bln

3:30 pm : Major averages are holding onto the bulk of today's gains amid spirited leadership from a number of blue chips. On the Dow, 25 of 30 components are trading higher and helping the index hit four-month highs. Pacing the way higher is Home Depot (HD 36.68 +1.62), which is surging 4.6% and trading higher in sympathy with nearly every other retailer at the expense of oil's continued downturn. To wit, Retail, as reflected in the S&P Retail Index, was down as much as 10% on July 18 (four days after oil hit record levels), but has turned positive on the year this afternoon and is now poised to close up 3.4% as plunging oil prices ease concerns about crimped corporate profit margins and consumer spending. DJ30 +105.73 NASDAQ +40.93 SP500 +13.57 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 810/2170/1.67 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 827/2452/1.42 bln