WaPo: GOP Officials Brace for Loss of Seven to 30 House Seats

[Patsy Stone]

By Jim VandeHei and Chris Cillizza
Washington Post Staff Writers

Tuesday, October 10, 2006; Page A01

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/09/AR2006100901218.html

Republican campaign officials said yesterday that they expect to lose at least seven House seats and as many as 30 in the Nov. 7 midterm elections, as a result of sustained violence in Iraq and the page scandal involving former GOP representative Mark Foley.

Democrats need to pick up 15 seats in the election to take back control of the House after more than a decade of GOP leadership. Two weeks of virtually nonstop controversy over President Bush's war policy and House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert's handling of the page scandal have forced party leaders to recalculate their vulnerability and placed a growing number of Republican incumbents and open seats at much greater risk.

GOP officials are urging lawmakers to focus exclusively on local issues and leave it to party leaders to mitigate the Foley controversy by accusing Democrats of trying to politicize it. At the same time, the White House plans to amplify national security issues, especially the threat of terrorism, after North Korea's reported nuclear test, in hopes of shifting the debate away from casualties and controversy during the final month of the campaign. These efforts are aimed largely at prodding disaffected conservatives to vote for GOP candidates despite their unease.

Still, GOP leaders privately said that Democrats are edging much closer to locking down a majority of House seats because a small but significant number of conservatives are frustrated with Republican governance, while independent swing voters are turning against GOP candidates.

[soothsayer]

1. Oooooh, i like the sound of this. Let us vote NOW! Now! Now!

[SallyMander]

36. Ohio voters are allowed to vote now!!

Either by going to the BOE or by requesting a mail-in (paper!) ballot.

I'm waiting on my ballot so i can help give Deb Pryce the boot! (Along with Mike DeWine, and, oh gosh, let's send Ken Blackwell back to the scary boogyland from whence he emerged...)

[Beetwasher]

2. LOL! Yes, Indeed, Let's Focus On Nat'l Sec. In Light Of NK Nuke Test

Yes, indeed. Let us travel down that path. What a desperate bunch of bufoons clinging to that enormous failure.

[Patsy Stone]

3. How on earth

is National Security supposed to make these people look better? Is it just me, or have they done less than nothing to stop NK?

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Miss Chybil]

5. They've done less than nothing to stop anybody.

It's their modus operandi. Why would they want to stop terror and insecurity when their only stategy is fear?

[Kolesar]

22. Cokie Roberts said that the nuke test will be a bonus for the GOP

"anything that gets the electorate talking about national security, blah, blah, blah" "mothers are alarmed about pedophiles, but...blah, blah, blah"

[Jack Rabbit]

6. Is that all?

I will be very surprised if they get away with losing only thirty seats.

[Patsy Stone]

10. I liked the range myself

7-30. That's like 1 or 23.

[anotherdrew]

7. "White House plans to amplify the threat of terrorism" - so they admit it?

not just amplify, but... especially amplify. How special.

[Patsy Stone]

8. And not even terrorism

the "threat" of terrorism.

BOOGA-BOOGA-BOOGA!!!

[howmad1]

19. Hey, lets "amplify" the threat by bombing North Korea next week.

After we finish with NK, we can then bomb the shit out of Iran. And just for grins, lets finish off Syria, all by Nov. 7, 2006. That should really especially amplify the threat of terra. :sarcasm:

[WePurrsevere]

24. That statement blew me away.. they actually have the gall to admit it. n/t

[Joe Bacon]

9. Even after the election, how many Democrats will jump to the GOP?

I fully expect LIEberman to jump to the GOP. Sadly, I fear that even if the Democrats win on election Day, enough of them will jump over to let the GOP still run the show!

[Judi Lynn]

11. Who else do you know, other than Lieberman?

In my very red state, Kansas, two high-ranking Republican Party members have ditched their old Party, claiming the Party has changed for the worse, and joined the Democrats.

I am NOT aware of any significant movement of Democrats to the Republican Party. Maybe you could give a little background on what has led you to this belief.

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

17. There Are The 2 Nelsons

One or both of them could certainly switch. Who knows exactly what is going on.

I Sooooooo hope I'm wrong to be worried, but I do not trust the repubs AT ALL. Anything is possible with these SONS OF BITCHES! ANYTHING!

[Judi Lynn]

18. Those Nelsons are hard to take, aren't they?

They've been caught up in this act so long, however, treading the middle ground between healthy Democrats and the loud right-wingdings in their areas that they might just feel they've got it down by now!

They have been a real pain for years, so you'd have to hope if they were going to "bust a move," they would have already done it.

http://images.bimedia.net/images/Ben+Nelson+On+The+Menu.jpg

Loves doggies, likes to cook, drive fine corn cars!



Little known fact:
Bill Nelson flew on STS-61C in 1986 as a payload specialist

[cali]

41. You are soooo wrong to be worried

about either of the Nelsons or Lieberman. Joe would catch bloody hell from his constituents should he switch. I doubt he wants to end his political career that way. In addition, with the exception of the war and his toadying up to bushco, his record is far more in line with dem ideals than repuke. As for the Nelsons, should the dems win the senate, they stand to benefit. As far as I'm concerned, worrying about dems switching to repuke, is silly and it's borrowing trouble.

[Hawaii Hiker]

35. Kansas

That is interesting that 2 members switched from Republican to Democrat, ESPECIALLY in a state that elected a religious zealot (and that is putting it mildly) like Sam Brownback...

[Taoschick]

12. Lieberman

Isn't going to jump if he's been promised his senority. 2008's going to be a whole new ballgame and Democrats would have to be insane to jump to the GOP 2 years prior to a presidential election. I'd be willing to bet you see more republicans switching over.

[aquart]

14. Who jumps to the loser?

[C_U_L8R]

13. Thirty seats sound sweet

to my ears

[WePurrsevere]

26. It does doesn't it? It made me feel tingly all over :-D

although I'm not going to get my hopes up too high, there are more cards of desperation that these neo-CONs will probably try to play. Hopefully the Dems have the moxie and the goods to fight back if so... enough is enough.

[truthisfreedom]

15. we need to "amplify ineptitude issues" and remind everyone of bushco's

repeated foreign policy failures and national security failures. on bush's watch, we had 9-11, we lost 3000 troops in an unnecessary and illegal invasion of a sovereign country looking for WMDs that didn't exist, dropped the ball on Iran and North Korea, and now North Korea has the bomb and Iran may be well on the way, and we're hemhorraging more money per day than at any time in American history.

and that's just the start of it.

[struggle4progress]

16. "A New Broom Sweeps Clean"

[FogerRox]

20. I'm buyin a broom, puttin a VOte DEM sign on it.

SWEEP SWEEP SWEEP

[Kolesar]

21. "Focusing on local issues" will lose the gop three seats in Ohio

The workers-compensation-fund scandal, unemployment, and deceased soldiers are still making headlines here.

[bklyncowgirl]

23. They're lowering expectations--it'll probably be less than that.

This way even if they lose the House they can still claim a victory of sorts.

My concern is that while the polls show that voters despise Congress in general, most like their own Congressman just fine.

As much as I want it to happen I don't think that the shift will be that great with the gerrymandered "designer" districts that we have in this country.

But wouldn't it be great if it was.

[depakid]

25. And since the election didn't get nationalized

because of STUPID paid consultants- local "issues" and candidates will probably carry the day in many places (including my state legislature) where the far right has major money advantages- and wil lie all over the radio and TV without rebuttals.

What needed to be done- and stil needs to be done is tar EVERY SINGLE Republican everywhere with the outrages of the past 6 years.

[Prophet 451]

27. Counting chickens there

Still, not everyone would be in the know so that makes sense. I'm still expecting amazing come from behind victories for the GOP (for which, read: Diebolded races). Maybe a few minor seats change hands but in the end, teh big picture is much as it is now.

Yes, I'm pessimistic, stops me getting complacent but I'm also dead serious. There's roughly a month left and I fully expect teh R's to pull out every dirty trick in the book and invent a few new ones to bring the key races close enough to Diebold.

[grizmaster]

28. GOP Officials Brace for Loss Of Seven to 30 House Seats

I won't believe it till the day after the election, but things are definitely looking up.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/09/AR2006100901218.html

By Jim VandeHei and Chris Cillizza
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, October 10, 2006; Page A01

Republican campaign officials said yesterday that they expect to lose at least seven House seats and as many as 30 in the Nov. 7 midterm elections, as a result of sustained violence in Iraq and the page scandal involving former GOP representative Mark Foley.
Democrats need to pick up 15 seats in the election to take back control of the House after more than a decade of GOP leadership. Two weeks of virtually nonstop controversy over President Bush's war policy and House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert's handling of the page scandal have forced party leaders to recalculate their vulnerability and placed a growing number of Republican incumbents and open seats at much greater risk.

GOP officials are urging lawmakers to focus exclusively on local issues and leave it to party leaders to mitigate the Foley controversy by accusing Democrats of trying to politicize it. At the same time, the White House plans to amplify national security issues, especially the threat of terrorism, after North Korea's reported nuclear test, in hopes of shifting the debate away from casualties and controversy during the final month of the campaign. These efforts are aimed largely at prodding disaffected conservatives to vote for GOP candidates despite their unease.
Still, GOP leaders privately said that Democrats are edging much closer to locking down a majority of House seats because a small but significant number of conservatives are frustrated with Republican governance, while independent swing voters are turning against GOP candidates.

[dolo amber]

29. Damn those dems for politicizing politics

:silly:

Monica Lewinsky much? :eyes:

[soothsayer]

30. Hey! No jinxing!

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

31. I know they like to lower expectations...

so that even a loss can look like a win in the end, but 30 seats? That's pretty fucking low there.

[KansDem]

32. "leave it to party leaders to mitigate the Foley controversy"

BWAHAHAHAHAHA...its worked so well so far. :crazy:

[humbled_opinion]

33. Enough seats to make an Impeachment stick.

[Imalittleteapot]

34. GOP House possible loss news

will light a fire under Repukes and make Dems lazy. To win seats, Dems MUST show up at the polls in greater numbers than ever before.

[longship]

37. Just seven?????

No way do we gain just seven House seats. If the election was held right now, it would be more like a couple of dozen or more turnovers.

At this time, only the most conservative (in the political sense) vote counters are predicting such a little turnover. These people are outright delusional. They talk about Gerrymandering and about how much people love their own Representatives and totally ignore the globally pissed-off electorate. They are so focussed on the trees that they cannot see the forest.

The Republicans are down and trending downward in all big issue categories for November. The Democrats are the beneficiaries of all these trends. Hell, there's not even one Dem-held seat in serious danger at this point.

[Maryland Liberal]

38. The Climate is right

If the GOP is willing to conceed 7 seats - ya just gotta know the real number is gonna be MUCH higher. Now is our big chance for a ROYAL FLUSH. Nationilize these elections by promising to IMPEACH Hastert and the Bushie. Now is the perfect time to press our advantage

[Clarkie1]

39. "Democrats are favored to win every seat they now occupy"

No more telling statement than that one. We have them ENTIRELY playing defense now.

[KittyWampus]

40. kick for the joy reading this headline

[twaddler01]

42. Don't worry, * is confident they will win....

.......* said that...

[Pachamama]

43. They may want to be preparing themselves for losing more than 30 seats

My prediction: They will lose 38 seats....

:kick: