STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday October 13

[ozymandius]

Friday October 13, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 829 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2116 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1822 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1783
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 12, 2006

Dow... 11,947.70 +95.57 (+0.81%)
Nasdaq... 2,346.18 +37.91 (+1.64%)
S&P 500... 1,362.83 +12.88 (+0.95%)
Gold future... 580.30 +3.80 (+0.65%)
30-Year Bond 4.91% -0.00 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.78% -0.01 (-0.13%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Martin Goldberg

BOND MARKET YIELDS FEW CLUES

Any prediction on the direction of interest rates based on fundamentals is inherently flawed by the nature of our monetary system. In order to predict the direction of interest rates, you need broad insights on the world economy and you need to know how central bankers, speculators, and foreigners will behave. This is pretty much an impossible task to perform with any measure of reliability. Those who have such rare insight, usually have personal and professional interests that go beyond their altruistic instincts to help the public by sharing their thoughts. In addition, their predictions may be dead wrong in spite of an exceptional analysis. It is for this reason that technical analysis is a valuable tool for establishing the future direction of interest rates. Even though signals can be a bit late, charts don’t lie, and when they do, there are signals that tell you when the analysis becomes erroneous. Charts don’t talk up “their book”. It is with this in mind that I would like to present a short analysis of long interest rates.

The chart below dates from 1960 to the present, and shows the 10-year Treasury note yield. There are two key trendlines that dominate the entire 46-3/4 year chart. The first is the linear uptrend in long interest rates from 1960 to about 1982. In 1982, the long term interest rate went into a bear market that has lasted until recent years. In mid-2006 the long term trendline on the 10-year note was tickled, and then it whipsawed bond bears. Before moving on, please examine the right edge of the long-term chart beginning in mid-2003 (3-1/2 ticks from the right edge). Does it appear to you that the 10-year note interest rate is heading down, or up?

-see chart-

This can be observed more clearly in the weekly chart below that dates back from 1990 to the present. It shows 2 of the 3 sharp corrections annotated in the longer chart above. The last 2 rallies between lower and upper channel lines (shown in red), were of about 1.25 years duration. However, since bottoming in 2003, the rally to the upper channel line has lasted over 2-3/4 years, more that double the duration of the previous channel trips. I suspect that the downtrend in long term interest rates ended in 2003, and since that time, rallies in interest rates have become longer in duration. Yet this supposition will not be confirmed until the long term (down) trendline is broken decisively.

-cut-

Today’s Market – No Legitimate Reasons to Sell
The bond market did little today.

The stock market rallied broadly with speculative and highly shorted sectors leading the way. Homebuilders reached levels not seen since June and this action is sending a signal to traders that you aren’t going to short stocks based on fundamentals. There’s similar action with stocks such as Eastman Kodak and General Motors. With the indices rallying with barely a day of minor pullback, it is clear to traders that if you are long, there is no reason to sell. From a technical perspective, practically all trading systems are based upon waiting for a trend to reverse before selling or moving to the other side of the trade. So in short, there is simply no technical reason to sell either. Folks recently received their 401 K statements, which were by and large, highly bullish for the summer quarter. This is more reason for the public to chase the rally, but it is certainly not a reason to sell. Earnings season is upon us, and this brings corporate America to the mike to put their respective company’s best foot forward (while they claim special items and one time events). Outlooks are likely to be rosy again although, this time the disclaimers may actually come into play in a few months. Again, this is another reason to buy stocks; but not a reason to sell. If this isn’t enough, it seems that every day there is another Fed governor giving a speech covered by the news services discussing how great the economy is doing, and how it is due for a soft landing. Again - no reason to sell. This is the stuff of a rally that is feeding upon itself, and will probably only exhaust itself when there is no one left to buy. In this suddenly bullish environment, the chance of a parabolic up move must be considered by owners of stocks and again, there is no reason to sell because you might miss such a bullish parabola (remember the 2000 Nasdaq?).

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's reports-a-plenty

12:00 AM Treasury Budget Sep (TBA)
Briefing Forecast $56.6B
Market Expects $52.0B
Prior $35.7B

8:30 AM Export Prices ex-ag. Sep
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.4%

8:30 AM Import Prices ex-oil Sep
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 0.5%

8:30 AM Retail Sales Sep
Briefing Forecast 0.1%
Market Expects 0.2%
Prior 0.2%

8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto Sep
Briefing Forecast -0.1%
Market Expects 0.0%
Prior 0.2%

9:50 AM Mich Sentiment-Prel. Oct
Briefing Forecast 86.0
Market Expects 86.5
Prior 85.4

10:00 AM Business Inventories Aug
Briefing Forecast 0.7%
Market Expects 0.5%
Prior 0.6%

[UpInArms]

19. 8:30 reports tumble in:

8:31 AM ET 10/13/06 U.S. SEPT RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS, EX-GAS UP 0.8%

8:31 AM ET 10/13/06 U.S. SEPT. GAS SALES FALL RECORD 9.3%

8:31 AM ET 10/13/06 U.S. SEPT. RETAIL SALES FALL 0.4% VS. 0.1% EXPECTED

8:30 AM ET 10/13/06 U.S. SEPT. IMPORT PRICES EX-FUELS UP 2.0% YR-OVER-YR

8:30 AM ET 10/13/06 U.S. AUG. RETAIL SALES REVISED LOWER TO 0.1% GAIN

8:30 AM ET 10/13/06 U.S. SEPT. NON-PETROLEUM IMPORT PRICES RISE 0.1%

8:30 AM ET 10/13/06 U.S. SEPT. PETROLEUM PRICES DOWN 10.3%, BIGGEST SINCE DEC 04

8:30 AM ET 10/13/06 U.S. SEPT. IMPORT PRICE DECLINE BIGGEST SINCE APRIL '03

8:30 AM ET 10/13/06 U.S. SEPT. IMPORT PRICES FALL 2.1% VS FALL 1.3% EXPECTED

(edited to add line items)

[UpInArms]

20. U.S. Sept retail sales fall 0.4% on drop in gas prices

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7BA0A29E11%2D42EC%2D480E%2DB51F%2D69D1C557CF33%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The sharp drop in gasoline prices drove the value of U.S. retail sales down by 0.4% in September, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Sales at gasoline stations plunged by a record 9.3% in September. Auto sales were flat in September. Excluding motor vehicles, retail sales fell 0.5%, the biggest drop in three years. Elsewhere in the retail sector, sales were modestly higher in September. Excluding gasoline, retail sales rose 0.6%. Sales excluding both autos and gas rose 0.8%, the biggest rise since January. Sales were particularly perky at the malls. Economists were expecting retail sales to rise about 0.1%, with sales excluding autos expected to fall 0.1%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

[ozymandius]

29. Wha???

Three months ago I thought the reports stated that sales dropped because of a rise in gasoline prices.

Does anyone think the toupee industry is going to take a hit now that Bob Ney is headed to prison?

[UpInArms]

30. dontcha just love it when high gas prices were what was propping up

this wretched economy?

[Egnever]

31. You know ....

I was scratching my head here this morning when i read this thinking the same thing. Maybe Gas is the only retail sales going on anymore.

I have given up trying to understand the market these days. Nothing seems to make sense. today the dollar is up and so is gold again. I just don't get it. Up is down down is up. The deficit gets bigger and the dollar looks better WTF?

[UpInArms]

21. U.S. Sept. import prices fall 2.1%, largest in three years

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B61C34A9E%2D19A6%2D467C%2D9AC5%2D0C131CFC4AF5%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. import prices fell 2.1% in September, the Labor Department said Friday. This is the first drop in six months and the biggest decline since April 2003. Economists were expecting import prices to fall 1.3%. Import prices are up 2.0% in the past year, the smallest 12-month change since March 2003 and below the 6.3% year-over-year gain in August. Imported petroleum prices fell 10.3% in September, the largest drop since December 2004. Imported natural gas prices fell 5.2%. Prices of imports excluding petroleum inched up 0.1%. Meanwhile, prices of U.S. exports fell 0.5%, the first decline since November 2005.

[UpInArms]

25. UMich index rises to 92.3, highest since July 2005 - We're HAPPY!!!

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B1280D55A%2D3B3F%2D4DC1%2D83D5%2DD3694F0DD80C%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. consumer sentiment rose for the second straight month in October, reaching its highest level since July 2005, according to fresh data Friday from researchers at the University of Michigan.

The consumer sentiment index rose more than expected to 92.3 in October from 85.4 in September.

According to a survey conducted by MarketWatch, economists had been expecting the index to rise to 86.4. See Economic Calendar.

Treasury yields rose after the sentiment data was released as it indicates the economy may be on firmer footing.

"With retail sales and consumer confidence strong, any economic weakness may not be that weak. That does not bode well for a cut in rates until the first part of next year, at the earliest," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors. See Bond Report.

The October index was boosted by short-term expectations.

...more...

I have to admit - my "short-term" expectation is that Dimson's term will be cut short.

[UpInArms]

26. U.S. Aug. business Inventories rise 0.6%

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B080EB532%2D516E%2D4059%2DA423%2DAB41B6B17623%7D&symbol=

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. business inventories increased 0.6% in August, slightly slower than the 0.8% increase in sales, the Commerce Department reported Friday. The inventory-to-sales ratio remained at 1.26. The typical business had about 38 days of sales on hand in the back room, an extremely lean inventory. In the retail auto sector, inventories grew 0.5% in August even as the industry was trying to move cars and trucks with special deals. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting inventories to rise 0.5% in August. In July, business sales increased a downwardly revised 0.5% while inventories rose an upwardly revised 0.7%.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises above $58 a barrel in Asia

SINGAPORE - Oil prices rose Friday on news that U.S. heating oil inventories fell and that Norway ordered production shut down at two offshore platforms, sharply reducing flows from the world's third-largest oil exporter.

Light, sweet crude for November delivery gained 40 cents to $58.26 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midafternoon in Singapore.

-cut-

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday in its weekly report domestic inventories of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, fell by 1.6 million barrels to 149.9 million barrels, due primarily to a decline in refinery operation.

The drop in distillates was comprised almost entirely of falling heating oil inventories, which saw their largest decline since the week ending March 24. That's worrisome news as blustery weather sweeps across the northern United States, but distillates are still well above the average range for this time of year.

more

[ozymandius]

4. US motorists gear up to use greener diesel fuel

The drive to convert American motorists to diesel will take a big step forward during the next few days as a more environmentally friendly version of the fuel goes on sale.

The clean-burning ultra-low sulphur diesel emits only 15 parts per million of sulphur, compared with 500 parts for existing diesel.

Used in conjunction with the latest diesel engines, it greatly reduces the noise, smell and soot that have up to now turned many Americans off diesel.

-cut-

Diesel typically offers 30-45 per cent more fuel economy than petrol and is already widely used for trucks, buses and off-road vehicles.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/208c3f1c-5a07-11db-8f16-0000779e2340.html

[ozymandius]

9. Oil Rises as U.S. Demand Grows, Heating-Fuel Supplies Dwindle

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose amid growing U.S. energy demand and a decline in heating fuel supplies as winter approaches in the Northern Hemisphere. Oil was also pushed up after Norway ordered two North Sea oil platforms to shut down.

Oil rebounded from near a nine-month low yesterday after the U.S. Energy Department reported fuel consumption gained last week, the first increase in seven weeks. Distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, fell 1.5 million barrels, 12 times the decline forecast in a Bloomberg News survey of analysts.

``The lower prices for oil products have pushed up the demand for oil products such as heating oil,'' said Dariusz Kowalczyk, the chief investment strategist for CFC Seymour Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``The inventory drop was much bigger than expected.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8ufb333y_ng&refer=home

[ozymandius]

5. 'Banker' who lends to the poor wins Nobel Peace Prize

The inspirational economist Muhammad Yunus was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize today for helping lift millions of his fellow Bangladeshis from poverty through a pioneering scheme that lends tiny amounts of money to the very poorest of borrowers.

Professor Yunus shares the prize, and the cheque for 10 million Swedish Kronor (£730,000) that accompanies it, with the Grameen Bank, which he founded after the Bangladeshi famine of 1974 and whose micro-credit model has since been copied in dozens of countries around the world.

The bank, which is owned almost entirely by its own borrowers, has lent out some £2.9 billion to more than 6 million Bangladeshis, 96 per cent of them women. Even though its borrowers are not asked for collateral, more than 98 per cent of the money is repaid.

-cut-

It added: "Lasting peace can not be achieved unless large population groups find ways in which to break out of poverty. Micro-credit is one such means. Development from below also serves to advance democracy and human rights.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,3-2402640,00.html

[AnneD]

24. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. I think I mention this guy once before on this thread after seeing him on a program where he talked about his micro loans and how they were uses to develop business in third world countries. I recently bought a book written by Muhammed Yunus and have started reading it. The man truly deserves this award as well as the Nobel Prize in Economics.

In addition to these micro loans, they help these budding entrepreneurs grow their businesses. For example, a woman in an isolate rural farming village wanted to buy a cell phone. There is no other phone service in the village and people cannot afford a cell phone. She buys a phone and becomes the village phone company. The bank teaches her how to determine a fair price. This widow can now take care of herself and her children, her business grows enough that she can get another phone, and the village can now communicate with the outside world, instead of hitching up the ox cart and taking several days off to take care of business. It is a win-win in the best possible way. His bank has a very low default rate because they work hard to help these people (usually women) succeed. The variety of businesses they have helped get started is amazing. If you ever have a chance, read up on Muhammed Yunus. He puts many of our business 'leaders' to shame.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[ozymandius]

6. FCC delays vote on AT&T, BellSouth merger

The Federal Communications Commission postponed a meeting scheduled for Thursday to vote on the proposed merger between AT&T and BellSouth.

The meeting is now scheduled for Friday.

The delay is likely a signal that FCC Chairman Kevin Martin still needs more time to gather support for the merger. So far, Martin has support from fellow Republican Deborah Tate, but the two Democratic commissioners, Michael Copps and Jonathan Adelstein, have expressed reservations about the merger. The fifth commissioner, Republican Robert McDowell, has recused himself from voting because of his work as a lobbyist before he became a commissioner.

The merger, which was announced in March and is now valued at roughly $79 billion, was approved by the Department of Justice's antitrust division on Wednesday without any restrictions. The approval set off protest from several consumer groups and smaller Internet and telephone companies, as well as from some Democratic lawmakers.

"I am disappointed that the Department of Justice appears to have chosen political expediency over the public interest in approving the merger of AT&T and BellSouth without any conditions to protect consumers and prevent competitive harms," Sen. Daniel Inouye, D-Hawaii, said in a statement.

http://news.com.com/FCC+delays+vote+on+ATT,+BellSouth+merger/2100-1036_3-6125176.html

[acmejack]

13. We're screwed on this one.

here come the tubes.

[UpInArms]

35. US FCC chairman cancels Friday AT&T-BellSouth vote

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-10-13T181311Z_01_WBT006093_RTRIDST_0_TELECOMS-BELLSOUTH-FCC-URGENT.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin Martin canceled a vote on Friday on AT&T Inc.'s (T.N: Quote, Profile, Research) proposed acquisition of BellSouth Corp. (BLS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and agreed to seek 10 days of public comment on proposals to address concerns about the deal.

Martin also said he would schedule a public vote by the commissioners for Nov. 3 if they did not vote by then.

The two Democratic commissioners, Michael Copps and Jonathan Adelstein, had asked Martin for time to get public comment on proposals made to address concerns about the deal.

[ozymandius]

7. H.P. Names Ethics Officer

PALO ALTO, Calif., Oct. 12 (AP) — Hewlett-Packard said Thursday that it had named Jon Hoak, former general counsel for the NCR Corporation, as its vice president and chief ethics and compliance officer.

Mr. Hoak, 57, replaces Kevin T. Hunsaker, who was ousted after his involvement in a boardroom spying inquiry was disclosed last month. Mr. Hunsaker was charged with several felonies in the case, as were the company’s former chairwoman, Patricia C. Dunn, and three outside investigators.

Mr. Hoak’s duties will include working with an outside lawyer hired by Hewlett-Packard to assess the company’s investigative practices and develop future business-practice guidelines, the company said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/10/13/technology/13hewlett.html

[ozymandius]

8. Soybean crop surges; corn demand up

WASHINGTON -- Soybeans are on track for a record harvest, while the corn forecast has dimmed slightly, the Agriculture Department reported Thursday.

Separately, the department said Florida's orange crop will be the smallest since 1990 because of cold weather and lingering hurricane damage. Orange-juice futures soared to a 16-year high.

The USDA report said September rains came too late for cornfields in Illinois, Nebraska and Ohio, prompting analysts to reduce their production forecast by 2 percent in the monthly crop report.

The Bush administration has been holding off on further aid for producers suffering through withering drought to see how this year's harvest of corn and soybeans, the major crops, turn out.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-0610130175oct13,0,323948.story?coll=chi-business-hed

[ozymandius]

10. U.S. trade deficit sets new high

The nation's trade deficit, the gap between what the United States exports and what it imports, rose by 2.7% to $69.9 billion, marking the second straight month it has set a record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Wall Street, which had been looking for a slight improvement in August, shrugged off the disappointing trade report and sent stocks to a fifth record close this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 95.57 points to close at 11,947.70.

The deterioration in trade was led by another record foreign oil bill, which pushed imports up to an all-time high, swamping a solid increase in exports, which also set a record. The politically sensitive trade deficit with China also set a monthly record at $22 billion.

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061013/BUSINESS07/610130475/1020/BUSINESS

[UpInArms]

18. Oil drives trade deficit to new high

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061012/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/economy

WASHINGTON - America's trade deficit unexpectedly jumped to a new record in August, providing ammunition for Democrats to attack Republican trade policies in the closing weeks of the fall election campaign.

The gap between what the U.S. exports and what it imports rose by 2.7 percent to $69.9 billion, marking the second straight month it has set a new record, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Wall Street, which had been looking for a slight improvement in August, shrugged off the disappointing trade report and sent stocks to a fifth record close this month. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 95.57 points to close at 11,947.70.

The deterioration in trade was led by another record foreign oil bill, which pushed imports up to an all-time high, swamping a solid increase in exports, which also set a record. The politically sensitive trade deficit with China also set a monthly record at $22 billion.

With oil prices falling from the $77 per barrel level set in July to less than $60 per barrel this week, analysts said the August figure could be the peak for the deficits. But they cautioned that any improvement will come slowly given the huge gap between what America imports and what U.S. companies are able to sell overseas.

...more...

[UpInArms]

11. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.89 Change +0.04 (+0.05%)

Trade Fails To Tease Dollar Volatility

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_financial_markets_headlines/Trade_Fails_To_Tease_Dollar_1160672547065.html

As the dollar sticks to its multi-month highs set in a number of just days ago, the class of fundamental data needed to support a continuation or trigger a serious retracement into former ranges has been raised. This dependency on indicator selection came through clear today as greenback traders passed up on another record trade deficit and instead turned to this afternoons beige book and a generous helping of data tomorrow.

The range set in the EURUSD yesterday held in today’s mild fluctuations as an overnight swing back to 1.2570 was quickly pushed back down to 1.2520 by the open in New York. In the GBPUSD, the pound is finding an active bid in an attempt for a solid retracement. The pair reached 1.8615 in London hours but went through a sharp, 80-point turn to pull it back towards the 1.85 level bears are eying. For the Swiss franc, a run to 1.2675 was all that could be won before dollar bids brought the pair back up to 1.2735 to keep Wednesday’s resistance in sight. Finally, the Japanese yen putting up a fight against the dollar by making an attempt on 119.25 before settling to the middle of the session’s range.

Participants in the currency market were once again weighing in on the importance of the US trade physical trade account Thursday morning in the New York session. Against expectations of a $3.2 billion contraction in the long-standing deficit, the August shortfall instead grew to a new, all-time high $69.9 billion. From the breakdown, the principal reasons behind the sizable increase seemed either to have a positive undertone or otherwise temporary effect. This, as well as the fact that the balance has repeatedly marked new highs in the past, has likely numbed traders to the otherwise psychologically surprising number. As has been the case in for most of the year, the outflow of capital through purchases of petroleum products was contributing to a sizable chunk of slide. Imports of crude were also valued at a new record, $27.2 billion. Though many in capital markets and in the global area saw the price of crude oil peak and retreat from a record high $78.40 per barrel in the middle of July on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the monthly tally was still greater in the following month. Over the month of August, the average barrel of crude fetched $66.12, $1.28 more than the month before. However, any extreme shift in sentiment based on this fact alone was dulled as many know the sizable decline in crude oil prices down to $60 per barrel took place in the month of September, setting up optimistic predictions on the next trade reading.

The other big contribution to the overall $192.3 billion value of total imports for the month came on the part of businesses purchasing machinery and equipment. While the immediate effects in the trade number are considerable, the investment in efficiency is actually a positive reflection of where the economy will head in the quarters ahead. Another noteworthy statistic from August’s numbers was the new record shortfall with China. Despite the biggest monthly appreciation in the yuan since loosening the peg against the dollar, the deficit has breached to $22 billion. International markets will see how Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsay Graham, the champions of a bill for a 27.5 percent tariff on Chinese imports, react to this news. Looking ahead a little later in the day, the Fed’s Beige Book will give the most detailed description of the policy group’s outlook for the economy. Traders will draw correlations to recent hawkish chatter, reassurances of a shallow housing contraction and strong minutes, all from the Fed, in order to place this into evaluations. In reality, the markets will likely hold ranges from earlier in the day until Friday’s mix of inflation, retail sales and confidence indicators help the market determine what is the new, principal concern for the US dollar.

...more...

Tomorrow's Economic Releases: US Retail Sales, Inflation Look To End Dollar's Stall

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/calendar/key_events/Tomorrow_s_Economic_Releases__US_Retail_1160691864589.html

US Import Price Index (SEP) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(MoM) (YoY)
Consensus: -1.3% 3.8%
Previous: 0.8% 6.6%

Outlook: US Import prices likely fell for the first time since March, as significantly lower commodity prices limited the total imports bill. Indeed, with pronounced declines in the price of oil, domestic gasoline and other energy prices abated through the end of August and through September. This reflected the effects of lower input price costs and represented a significant cost savings to the US consumer. Given that gas prices have since only fallen further, many have claimed that a boost in disposable income from lower gas prices will serve to buoy personal expenditures through the final quarter of the year. Regardless, Fed watchers may notice that quickly falling import price inflation will likely limit the headline CPI figure and subsequently cause the central bank to cut interest rates in the medium term. Of course, it is no exaggeration to claim that we are likely at least several months off from such an occurrence. It serves to mention, however, that tomorrow will be the first of several inflation reports that may change outlook on the official US overnight lending rate.

Previous: Import prices rose at a 3.8 percent annualized pace through August, as record-high oil prices drove up the nation’s already-massive energy bill. This likewise left headline CPI growth at an identical 3.8 percent year on year rate, and reduced speculation that the Federal Open Market Committee would feel the need to cut interest rates in the medium term. Regardless, expectations of significantly lower headline inflation through September may provide the catalyst for renewed dollar weakness on the prospect of lower interest rates. We will wait for tomorrow’s import price report to shed more light on the subject and to guide forecasts of the headline CPI number.


US Advanced Real Retail Sales (SEP) (12:30 GMT; 08:30 EST)
(Advanced) (ex Autos)
Consensus: 0.2% 0.0%
Previous: 0.2% 0.2%

Outlook: Advanced Retail Sales are expected to rise by 0.2 percent matching the gains from the month prior. Rapid declines in the price of gasoline have boosted consumer confidence and discretionary spending. Department Store chains have reported their best monthly gains since 1998, however, questions remain as to whether consumers continued to spend money on higher end items such as household durables, electronics and cars. The Advanced Retail Sales report could have profound implications on FX trading tomorrow as it may either confirm or refute the latest speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates at 5.25% for the foreseeable future.

Previous: Retail sales in the US unexpectedly rose in August, a sign the economy is withstanding the slump in the housing market. Sales rose 0.2 percent after a 1.4 percent July increase that was the biggest jump in six months, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Sales excluding automobiles rose 0.2 percent after a 0.6 percent gain. Sales of motor vehicles and parts, which make up about a fifth of total retail sales, rose 0.4 percent last month after a 4.3 percent gain in July. The Commerce Department figures don't always correspond to industry reports, however, as General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co., the two largest U.S. automakers, have announced plans to cut production in coming months after sales sagged.


University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (OCT P) (13:45 GMT; 09:45 EST)

Consensus: 86.5
Previous: 85.4

Outlook: US consumers are expected to be more optimistic in their outlooks for October, according to economists’ predictions, with higher wages and falling gasoline price paving the way. Risk towards a surprise contraction rests on the increasingly gloomy outlooks for the housing market, which is still a very real weight on American’s available and potential wealth. Additionally, later revisions may tack in the tensions that have been rising with North Korea. However, the aforementioned bright spots could be the right combination to lift consumers’ spirits. All in all, a renewed confidence could put the desire to spend back in American minds which would further facilitate the Fed’s predictions of a soft landing in the US growth slowdown and a cooling of inflation.

Previous: The University of Michigan survey of sentiment improved during the month of September to a reading of 85.4 from 82.0 as a 16 percent drop in the price of a gallon of gasoline made consumers more optimistic about the economic outlook. The decline in gas prices and lower inflation expectations also left Americans feeling better about financial conditions, which could help prop up the spending that makes up two-thirds of the economy and help to cushion the impact of a slowing housing market.

...more...

[UpInArms]

12. Dow looks to move past 12,000 today

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061013/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

NEW YORK - The Dow Jones industrial average looked to advance past 12,000 Friday a day after a burst of optimism over corporate earnings pushed the blue chips past 11,900 to a record close.

The index's gain Thursday marked its fifth record close in two weeks; the Dow also set a record intraday high Thursday.

The markets were upbeat, with investors focusing on positive news from well-known consumer brands such as McDonald's Corp. and on economic data that indicated the economy was holding up even as it slowed. Oil prices, which remain near lows for the year, also boosted the mood on Wall Street.

"In general, we're getting friendly reports between oil inventories being up higher than expected and then some bellwether companies that are exceeding estimates," said John C. Forelli, portfolio manager for Independence Investment LLC in Boston. "It's kind of a return to the Goldilocks economy."

On Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average rose 95.57, or 0.81 percent, to 11,947.70. The advance put the 12,000 threshold within investors' sights. The previous record close, from Tuesday, was 11,867.17. The intraday high set Thursday was 11,959.63, eclipsing an earlier record of 11,872.94 reached Monday.

<snip>

Investors got a look at the state of the economy with the release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which summarizes regional economic activity. The report found that economic growth appeared to be moderate or mixed — findings that seemed to reassure investors looking for the economy to slow at a reasonable pace.

...more...

[UpInArms]

14. Fed finds cooling in housing market

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061013/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/fed_economy

WASHINGTON - The economy continued to grow in the early fall despite a "widespread cooling" in the once-hot housing market, the Federal Reserve reported Thursday.

The Fed's latest survey of business conditions around the country found the economy expanding with growth being described as "moderate or mixed."

However, the report found there was a distinct slowdown in housing with the majority of the Fed's 12 regions reporting lower asking prices for homes, a softening in sales and rising inventories of unsold homes.

The Fed said that reports from around the country "indicated widespread cooling" in housing markets with financial institutions finding that mortgage lending activity had tapered off. That decline in lending was being offset to some extent by an increase in lending for commercial projects in several districts, the Fed said.

The latest snapshot of the economy, based on reports from the Fed's regional banks, will be used when central bankers next meet on Oct. 24-25 to consider what to do with interest rates.

It is widely expected that the Fed will for a third straight meeting leave rates unchanged, preferring to wait and see if the economic slowdown brought on by previous rate hikes will be enough to keep inflation under control.

...more...

[UpInArms]

15. Ex-Homestore CEO gets 15-year sentence

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061013/ap_on_bi_ge/homestore_fraud

LOS ANGELES - The founder and former chief executive of online real estate listings company Homestore Inc. was sentenced Thursday to a 15-year prison term and ordered to pay a $5 million fine for his part in a scheme to defraud investors.

Stuart Wolff, 43, was convicted in June on charges of insider trading, lying to company accountants and federal regulators, and conspiracy in a scheme to inflate online ad revenues at the Westlake Village-based company.

U.S. District Judge Percy Anderson scheduled a hearing for Nov. 13 to determine whether Wolff will have to pay restitution and if he will be able to remain free on bond pending an expected appeal.

Homestore shareholders lost more than $100 million when the company's stock price fell in 2001 on news of the federal investigation into the company's irregular accounting practices.

Wolff is the 11th former Homestore employee convicted on federal charges stemming from the scheme.

<snip>

Wolff headed Homestore from 1997 until he resigned in January 2002. The company, which provides real estate listings and related services on the Internet, has since changed its name to Move Inc.

...more...

Okay - so I couldn't help myself - had to go and see if this guy ever made a political donation:

Wolff, Stuart
West Bloomfield, MI 48323
MICHIGAN REPUBLICAN PARTY (R) $1,000
primary 05/29/01
WOLFF, STUART
PLYMOUTH, MI 48170
MC HATTON MC DONALD DOLE, ROBERT J (R)
President
DOLE FOR PRESIDENT INC $500
primary 10/12/95

http://www.newsmeat.com/fec/bystate_detail.php?st=MI&last=Wolff&first=stuart

[UpInArms]

16. Wal-Mart found guilty of SweatShop Practices - May be Fined $62 Million

Wal-Mart faces at least $62M in damages

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061013/ap_on_bi_ge/wal_mart_breaks

PHILADELPHIA - A state jury found Thursday that Wal-Mart broke Pennsylvania labor laws by forcing employees to work through rest breaks and off the clock, a decision plaintiffs' lawyers said would result in at least $62 million in damages.

Jurors will return Friday to determine damages in the class-action lawsuit, which covers up to 187,000 hourly current and former workers.

"I think it reinforces that this company's sweatshop mindset is a serious problem, both legally and morally," said Chris Kofinis, a spokesman for WakeUpWalMart.com, a union-funded effort to improve working conditions at the stores.

The Bentonville, Ark.-based retail giant is facing a slew of similar suits around the country.

Wal-Mart settled a Colorado case for $50 million and is appealing a $172 million award handed down last year by a California jury.

...more...

[UpInArms]

32. Wal-Mart to pay at least $78 mln on labor violations: AP

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?dist=newsfinder&siteid=mktw&guid=%7B572EB8F1%2D8761%2D49D6%2DA0C8%2D8B0E84189694%7D&symbol=

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A jury has ordered Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) to pay at least $78 million for violating Pennsylvania state labor laws, according to a Friday media report. The retail giant was forcing employees to work through rest breaks and off the clock, according to an Associated Press report.

[UpInArms]

17. Winnebago earnings tumble on sales slide

Who could have guessed that? :eyes:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061012/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_winnebago

DES MOINES, Iowa - Motor-home manufacturer Winnebago Industries Inc. reported sharply lower profits for its fiscal fourth quarter due to product liability claims and a decrease in sales because of higher interest rates and fuel prices.

Shares of the company fell $1.08, or 3.14 percent, to close at $33.28 on the
New York Stock Exchange.

The Forest-City, Iowa-based company earned $9.3 million, or 30 cents a share, for the quarter, compared with $15.4 million, or 46 cents a share, a year ago.

Sales for the quarter were reported at $205.4 million, a decreased of 11.3 percent from sales of $231.5 million a year ago.

<snip>

"While negative economic factors, including rising interest rates, record fuel prices and declining consumer confidence created a very difficult market for the motor home industry, we remained solidly profitable," said CEO Bruce Hertzke.

...more...

"Negative economic factors" - would that be doubleplusgoodspeak for this is one lousy freakin' economy??

(edited to remove non-working jpg link)

[skids]

28. Huh. I would think sales would be booming for them...

...as the nation prepares for decades of living in their cars.

[texpatriot2004]

22. K & R nm

[ozymandius]

23. 10:22 update

Dow 11,923.45 Down 24.25 (0.20%)
Nasdaq 2,347.98 Up 1.80 (0.08%)
S&P 500 1,361.42 Down 1.41 (0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.8120% Up 0.0340
NYSE Volume 437,979,000
Nasdaq Volume 382,495,000

10:00 am : Major averages are now mixed as split industry leadership dictates early action. Energy is pacing the way higher, as evidenced by the sector staking claim to six of this morning's top ten performing S&P industry groups. However, since the driving catalyst behind Energy's leadership is a 1.5% surge in oil prices, the commodity's inflationary characteristics are acting as an offset to the sector's ability to keep the S&P 500 on pace for another quarter of double-digit profit growth. Technology is also offering some early support, but is only helping the Nasdaq cling to a small gain as the only major in positive territory. The absence of leadership from other influential areas like Health Care, Industrials and Consumer Discretionary is stalling some of yesterday's momentum.DJ30 -23.13 NASDAQ +3.40 SP500 -1.30 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1166/1192/150 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1340/1105/76 mln

[UpInArms]

27. OT: UN Security Council Agrees on NK Resolution

11:11 AM ET 10/13/06 U.N. SECURITY COUNCIL SETS VOTE FOR SATURDAY: AP

11:12 AM ET 10/13/06 U.N. RESOLUTION TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS ON N.KOREA: AP

11:11 AM ET 10/13/06 U.N SECURITY COUNCIL AGREES ON N.KOREA RESOLUTION TEXT: AP

[ozymandius]

33. Witching Hour's here. Let's see if anything happens.

3:11
Dow 11,938.97 Down 8.73 (0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,355.02 Up 8.84 (0.38%)
S&P 500 1,363.79 Up 0.96 (0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.8080% Up 0.0300
NYSE Volume 1,943,244,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,627,211,000

3:00 pm : Major averages continue to back off their best levels as sellers return from the sidelines with only an hour left in the trading day. Homebuilding (-4.4%) continues to pace the way lower after Centex (CTX 52.22 -2.87) cut its Q2 EPS outlook. Consumer Discretionary is also under pressure from weakness in Photo Products, Home Improvement Retail, Motorcycles, Education Services and Home Furniture -- five of today's ten worst performing S&P industry groups. DJ30 -17.05 NASDAQ +6.52 SP500 +0.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1215/1795/1.52 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1284/1886/1.1 bln

2:30 pm : The major averages are back to trading in split fashion but market internals continue to highlight a positive bias. As reflected in the A/D line, advancers on the NYSE outpace decliners by a 19-to-11 margin while those on the Nasdaq hold an 18-to-11 edge. However, an up-to-down ratio of at least 2 to 1 at both the Big Board and the Composite, as well as new highs sharply outpacing new lows (NYSE 291/10, Nasdaq 209/33), lend even more credence to the underlying bullish tone that has lifted stocks over the last three months.DJ30 -10.41 NASDAQ +11.04 SP500 +1.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1162/1830/1.38 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1195/1968/1.0 bln

[UpInArms]

34. RPT-Bank of France study raises U.S. deficit concerns

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-10-13T184145Z_01_N13299708_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FRANCE-US-REPEAT.XML

PARIS, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A Bank of France study on Friday highlighted concerns about the U.S. current account deficit and suggested a change in policy mix to address a problem that exchange rate moves had yet to correct.

"The U.S. current account deficit is a source of concern for the world economy," it said.

"The risk that the U.S. external debt is unsustainable gives rise to fears of an abrupt exchange-rate adjustment, with harmful consequences for financial markets and the real economies of its trade partners, notably the euro zone."

It said that the decline in the dollar's effective exchange rate seen since 2002 had not been enough to erode the deficit and added that simulations by a model suggested that a big currency move would be needed to have a significant impact.

"... the cost in terms of activity (of such currency moves) would be significant for its partners," the study added.

...more...

[ozymandius]

36. just before the close

Dow 11,955.94 Up 8.24 (0.07%)
Nasdaq 2,356.07 Up 9.89 (0.42%)
S&P 500 1,365.30 Up 2.47 (0.18%)
10-Yr Bond 4.8060% Up 0.0280
NYSE Volume 2,246,780,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,871,875,000

3:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the Nasdaq and Dow continue to trade in opposing directions. Aside from notable declines from the likes of Boeing (-2.0%), Home Depot (-2.8%), and GE (-1.1%), it can also be argued that, with the Dow at all-time highs, investors are rotating out of blue chips and into faster growing areas like technology. Small caps are currently faring very well as the underlying bullish tone attracts less risk-averse bargain hunters into the Russell 2000, which is turning in the day's best performance (+0.7%) but is still more than 3% off its all-time high o 784.62 (May 5). DJ30 -4.11 NASDAQ +9.14 SP500 +1.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1179/1824/1.65 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1371/1847/1.21 bln

[UpInArms]

37. closing the door and sweeping the floor with tired weekend blather

Dow 11,960.51 12.81 (0.11%)
Nasdaq 2,357.29 11.11 (0.47%)
S&P 500 1,365.62 2.79 (0.20%)
10-Yr Bond 4.806% 0.028


NYSE Volume 2,499,857,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,999,997,000

After logging a third consecutive week of solid gains, blue chips looked tired throughout most of the session Friday, as investors armed with an adequate Q3 report from the oldest Dow component (GE) struggled with mixed economic data, a rebound in oil and rising bond yields. Nonetheless, the underlying bullish tone that has lifted the three major indices 2.4% on average just two weeks into the fourth quarter eventually sidelined enough of the intraday inquiries about the sustainability of a three-month rally in stocks to get the Dow within reach of its next milestone -- 12,000.

Only a day after a handful of large-cap names helped paint a more optimistic picture of the Q3 earnings season, bellwether General Electric (GE 35.94 -0.28) was front and center Friday. Even though the Dow component turned in a solid performance overall, Q3 earnings that merely matched Wall Street expectations failed to impress investors and left the market looking elsewhere for better growth opportunities. To wit, the Dow still managed to close at another new all-time high but that was largely due to strength among the Dow's tech components (e.g. IBM +1.7% and HPQ +1.2%).

Technology was one of only four sectors to close higher. Fortunately for the bulls, leadership from the profit engine that is Energy (+1.4%) eventually helped investors look past a 1.4% rise in oil prices and the commodity's inflationary characteristics. While the energy sector isn't expected to grow Q3 earnings as impressively as it did in Q2 (+44%), anticipated profit growth of 23% should keep the S&P 500 on pace for a 13th consecutive quarter of double-digit profit growth.

An afternoon turnaround in Financials provided some added leadership that eventually carried a positive underlying tone into the close. Led by continued momentum in brokerage stocks, the rate-sensitive sector was also able to shrug off a rise in bond yields after Regions Financial (RF 38.79 +0.79) posting a 37% year/year rise in Q3 earnings provided more evidence that the S&P 500 will keep its streak of at least 10% operating EPS growth intact.

Treasuries sold off, lifting the yield on the 10-year note to a three-week high (4.80%) after economic data showed a stronger than expected rise in consumer sentiment and what eventually turned out to be decent retail sales report. Before the bell, the Commerce Dept. showed that September retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.4% while sales, excluding autos, fell 0.5%, the biggest drop in three years. That initially raised some concerns about the health of the consumer. However, further analysis showed that the drop in total retail sales was caused by a record 9.3% plunge in gasoline sales, which is actually good for the economy and not a sign of consumer weakness. DJ30 +12.81 NASDAQ +11.11 SP500 +2.79 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1175/1849/1.95 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1351/1898/1.44 bln

3:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the Nasdaq and Dow continue to trade in opposing directions. Aside from notable declines from the likes of Boeing (-2.0%), Home Depot (-2.8%), and GE (-1.1%), it can also be argued that, with the Dow at all-time highs, investors are rotating out of blue chips and into faster growing areas like technology. Small caps are currently faring very well as the underlying bullish tone attracts less risk-averse bargain hunters into the Russell 2000, which is turning in the day's best performance (+0.7%) but is still more than 3% off its all-time high o 784.62 (May 5). DJ30 -4.11 NASDAQ +9.14 SP500 +1.56 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1179/1824/1.65 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1371/1847/1.21 bln

3:00 pm : Major averages continue to back off their best levels as sellers return from the sidelines with only an hour left in the trading day. Homebuilding (-4.4%) continues to pace the way lower after Centex (CTX 52.22 -2.87) cut its Q2 EPS outlook. Consumer Discretionary is also under pressure from weakness in Photo Products, Home Improvement Retail, Motorcycles, Education Services and Home Furniture -- five of today's ten worst performing S&P industry groups. DJ30 -17.05 NASDAQ +6.52 SP500 +0.02 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1215/1795/1.52 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1284/1886/1.1 bln

2:30 pm : The major averages are back to trading in split fashion but market internals continue to highlight a positive bias. As reflected in the A/D line, advancers on the NYSE outpace decliners by a 19-to-11 margin while those on the Nasdaq hold an 18-to-11 edge. However, an up-to-down ratio of at least 2 to 1 at both the Big Board and the Composite, as well as new highs sharply outpacing new lows (NYSE 291/10, Nasdaq 209/33), lend even more credence to the underlying bullish tone that has lifted stocks over the last three months.DJ30 -10.41 NASDAQ +11.04 SP500 +1.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1162/1830/1.38 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1195/1968/1.0 bln