Poll: Foley seat leaning toward Dem

[sabra]

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-foleypoll1506oct15,0,2464200.story?coll=orl-news-headlines-state

Poll: Foley seat leaning toward Dem

WEST PALM BEACH -- Democrat Tim Mahoney leads Republican Joe Negron by 7 points in a critical congressional election to replace disgraced Republican U.S. Rep. Mark Foley, but the page scandal is not influencing how most people plan to vote, according to a South Florida Sun-Sentinel/Scripps Treasure Coast Newspapers poll.

With partisan control of the U.S. House of Representatives hanging on a handful of closely fought races, a Democratic gain in Florida's 16th Congressional District -- typically Republican territory -- could be a decisive factor, national experts said.

If the District 16 congressional election were today, 48 percent of respondents said they would vote for Mahoney, a Palm Beach Gardens businessman, and 41 percent would back Negron, a state representative from Stuart.

A sizable 11 percent remain undecided, with just over three weeks left before the election.

Independent voters, who are angry about how Republican leaders handled the Foley scandal, could prove pivotal in the District 16 race, the poll showed. Mahoney leads among the unaffiliated voters 56 percent to 27 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

[Kagemusha]

1. I doubt the issue of Mahoney's name not being on the ballot got raised

That's kind of a factor...

[MindMatter]

2. It seems to me the voters will fall into these categories

A) People who are going to vote R no matter what name is on the ballot

B) People who are already planning to vote for Mahoney or to simply vote the D regardless of the candidate's name

C) People who aren't aware of the Foley story

D) People who are aware of the Foley story and don't understand that a Foley vote counts for Negron.

There aren't going to be many in category D), but there could be 1% or 2% who simply cannot allow themselves to vote for Foley. That could be decisive.

[Bill McBlueState]

6. Mahoney's not on the ballot? n/t

[Kagemusha]

7. No he is not... Foley is. Name can't be removed under the rules

Can't be removed this soon especially, to prevent last-minute switching and other electoral chicanery. A vote for Foley is a vote for Mahoney. LITERALLY. But you have to vote for Foley first.

[SoCalDem]

8. Mahoney is the DEM candidate.. he's ON the ballot

The replace,ent for Foley ..Negron-R is NOT on the ballot.. A foley vote becomes a Negron vote.. presto-change-o ,a republican magic-vote ..

[Kagemusha]

11. Ugh, yes, my mistake, right issue, wrong name.

Thank you.

[Ms. Toad]

9. I think that's a typo..

Negron's not on the ballot - for Negron to win, voters must vote for Foley. As far as I can tell, Mahoney's on the ballot - otherwise this proposal is even more outrageous than it already is, unless they are also posting signs about how to vote for Mahoney: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/elections/orl-foleyside0406oct04,0,4672840.story?coll=orl-home-headlines (Election officials at state and local levels are considering posting signs in polling places and including notices in absentee ballots throughout the 16th Congressional District clarifying that a vote for former U.S. Rep. Mark Foley is a vote for his Republican replacement, Joe Negron.)

[Demeter]

3. Keeping My Fingers Crossed for Florida!

Is Mahoney a good man? Or is he a Bushbot businessman?

[Iwasthere]

4. WTF

Only 7 % ???????????????

[Iwasthere]

5. WTF

Only 7 % ???????????????

[AtomicKitten]

10. Leaning ????

Christ, the Republicans should insist the seat go to the Democrats just on principle. Apparently the morals and integrity crowd, in fact, have none.

[Kagemusha]

12. So what I meant to say the first time...

I think that this 7-point poll advantage in no way represents the grief the Republicans will have realizing this support at the polls because the Republican Party candidate on the ballot reads Mark Foley, not Joe Negron. In a poll, they asked for support of Negron, not Foley. In that sense, the poll is far kinder to the Republicans.

Apologies for the idiot mistake I made confusing Mahoney for the Republican candidate. Foley's the name stuck in my mind; the others are pretty faded. My regrets.

[truthisfreedom]

13. the thugs might as well take all of their campaign money, put it in a pile

and burn it.