STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday October 25

[ozymandius]

Wednesday October 25, 2006

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 817 DAYS
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2128 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1834 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 1795
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 6
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54


U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 24, 2006

Dow... 12,127.88 +10.97 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,344.84 -10.72 (-0.46%)
S&P 500... 1,377.38 +0.36 (+0.03%)
Gold future... 587.60 +4.70 (+0.80%)
30-Year Bond 4.94% -0.01 (-0.20%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.82% -0.00 (-0.04%)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver


PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif

WEEKLY CHARTS

-lotsa charts-

SUMMARY

Last week we said, "The message from all of our technical indicators is one in the same; at this point the SP is vulnerable to a sudden 40 point decline, and likewise, NASDAQ is vulnerable to a sudden 80-100 point decline. The question is "what price level is going to trigger the decline?" The chart patterns and the technical readings lead us to believe that the odds favoring the zone between resistance and the first upside targets, are better than even. Next week is OPEX. OPEX weeks tend to have bullish bias, thus, the indices may continue to remain in a state of suspended animation throughout next week. However, if they penetrate the "trigger zone" next week, then we would expect a reaction by no later than the following one."

This week the indices remained in a "state of suspended animation" during OPEX week--as we had suspected. For this week the odds favor a retreat, but we won't have confirmation of it until we have a close below 1357 for the SP, and below 2325 for NASDAQ. Look out for an advance on Monday followed by a shallow day on Tuesday. Such action the first two days of the week will increase the odds of a retreat later on.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[54anickel]

28. Hmmm, isn't that exactly what we had?

Look out for an advance on Monday followed by a shallow day on Tuesday.

I'm betting we'll be seeing a lot of "pump" action to counter that retreat he's calling for "later on". How much later on, that's my question. Can the "state of suspended animation" be maintained through the elections? Will it then be carried on a bit longer through the Santa Rally? I'm guessing that the longer they maintain the game, the harder the fall. :shrug:

If it tanks after the elections, and the Dems manage to take back both houses, who'll get the blame? I predict a new game....

[Egnever]

47. I predict a new game....

Hah interesting thought.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's reports

10:00 AM Existing Home Sales Sep
Briefing Forecast 6.35M
Market Expects 6.25M
Prior 6.30M

10:30 AM Crude Inventories 10/20
Briefing Forecast NA
Market Expects NA
Prior 5020K

2:15 PM FOMC policy statement

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[54anickel]

33. Crude Oil Inventories Fall Again

http://www.123jump.com/economy-story/Crude-Oil-Inventories-Fall-Again/19522/

snip>

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged nearly 14.9 million barrels per day during the week ending October 20, up 58,000 barrels per day from the previous week''s average. Refineries operated at 86.2 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production declined significantly last week compared to the previous week, averaging 8.7 million barrels per day, while distillate fuel production rose, averaging nearly 4.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.5 million barrels per day last week, down 936,000 from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 10.2 million barrels per day. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 957,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 241,000 barrels per day last week.

With crude oil imports down sharply, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) fell by 3.3 million barrels compared to the previous week. At 332.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories dropped by 2.8 million barrels last week, and are just above the upper end of the average range.

Distillate fuel inventories declined by 1.4 million barrels, but remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Ultra-low-sulfur diesel fuel inventories fell by 1.4 million barrels, while high-sulfur distillate fuel (heating oil) inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories declined by 11.3 million barrels last week, the largest drop since the week ending September 2, 2005, but remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

bit more...

[54anickel]

40. U.S. Economy: Existing Home Sales Drop, Prices Slip (Update1)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aqDLvQrf7H3I&refer=news

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned houses in the U.S. fell last month to the lowest level in almost three years, and prices of single-family homes suffered their greatest annual decline since at least 1969.

Purchases dropped 1.9 percent from August to an annual rate of 6.3 million, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median price of an existing single-family home dropped 2.5 percent from September 2005.

The year-long slump in residential real estate is the biggest drag on economic growth. Federal Reserve policy makers, who have been trying to slow growth without stalling it, are expected to keep interest rates unchanged today, in part out of concern that further increases to combat inflation might turn the housing downturn into a rout.

``The downward trend is continuing, but the really fast pace of decline in sales numbers is beginning to slow,'' said Phillip Neuhart, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. Housing ``is going to be a drag on the economy through 2007, but the drag will be far less in the second half than in the first half.''

Economists expected sales to slip to a 6.23 million rate, according to the median of 65 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 6 million to 6.36 million.

Compared with a year earlier, sales were down 14.2 percent, the Realtors group said. Home resales have fallen every month since March.

more...



Realtors See Housing Bottom

http://www.thestreet.com/_googlen/newsanalysis/homebuildersconstruction/10317514.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEN&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA

Existing-home sales continued to decline in September, falling 1.9% from August, but the National Association of Realtors indicated that the worst may be over for the troubled housing market.
Existing-home sales came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.18 million units in September, down from 6.30 million in August, the NAR said Wednesday.

Economists expected sales at an annualized rate of 6.25 million homes, according to Reuters.

The sales rate was 14.2% below the 7.20 million-unit pace in September 2005, which was the strongest month on record.

"Considering that existing-home sales are based on closed transactions, this is a lagging indicator and the worst is behind us as far as a market correction -- this is likely the trough for sales," David Lereah, the NAR's chief economist, said in a statement.

"When consumers recognize that home sales are stabilizing, we'll see the buyers who've been on the sidelines get back into the market, and sales will be at more normal levels in the wake of the unsustainable boom that we saw last year," said Lereah, noting that sales already are improving in some areas.

more...

[54anickel]

42. Kool Aid & Krispy Kremes

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2006/10/kool-aid-krispy-kremes.html

With so many “experts” out there singing the praises of the housing market, I think it is time for me to once again poke my head out. I had an email exchange this week with Jim Cramer, and it was hard to believe he is as bullish as he is. I hear from too many analysts and Wall Street gurus that don’t take the time to get out of their offices and get on the front line here in Florida, as well as Arizona, Texas, California, Virginia, etc. I also hear from the analysts and hedge fund managers that are visiting the corporate offices of the big builders. Unfortunately, they’re drinking the Cool Aid. It’s potent stuff that clouds rational thinking and it is probably just what is needed to wash down a few hundred stale donuts.

Do you remember my analogy of housing to donuts? A year ago I said this was like the room of 1,000 donuts. Even if they are warm Krispy Kremes, how many can you eat? Three? Maybe four? And even if you come back the next day, and the donuts are now half price, how many can you eat? Same thing with housing. We only have so many people in the US. But builders built houses like donuts. They sold houses to non-users. They sold houses to the greedy masses that bought multiple houses to flip. Now we have the inventory, but there are not enough people to occupy these homes. Moreover, with interest rates rising and mortgages becoming tougher to obtain, we have less and less people that can buy these homes, even if they want to.

Since my recent article in Barron's, I have received dozens of calls from builders, bankers, buyers and investment groups perched like vultures. Let me give you a sampling of a few calls.

Public Builder - Called me to find them bulk buyers with the ability to buy out all remaining units in developments they cannot sell. They are willing to sell at cost. I told them they were about 10% over the current distress market, and they didn’t even hesitate. They said, fine. Drop the price 10% and we’ll pay a 5% commission to you. Just help us get rid of this inventory.

Condo Developer - They have a 600 unit project that is 100% up for resale. This means no one is going to close when the building is completed in January. Every single buyer will walk from their 20% deposits. The developer will simply going to turn the keys over to the bank. And the bank will take a massive hit that will have the Feds on top of them in the blink of an eye.

more...

[Hugin]

43. "homes suffered their greatest annual decline since at least 1969"

Whoa!

I need to start some sort of a table listing all of the 'sinces' and 'evers' generated
since 2000.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil prices rise before inventories data

VIENNA, Austria - Crude futures edged higher Wednesday as OPEC's decision last week to cut output appeared to be taking hold, though gains were limited ahead of weekly U.S. supply data expected to show an increase in the country's inventories.

Light sweet crude for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 9 cents to $59.44 a barrel in electronic trading by midday in Europe. December Brent at London's ICE Futures exchange rose 23 cents to $60.09 a barrel.

Dow Jones Newswires, citing an unidentified industry source, reported Wednesday that the United Arab Emirates is to cut November oil supplies by around 5 percent, in line with the Organization of Exporting Countries' pledge to lower output by a total of 1.2 million barrels a day.

The UAE is the second OPEC member to cut its supply, Dow Jones said, after a senior OPEC delegate said Monday that Saudi Arabia informed all its global oil customers that they will receive less oil in November.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Crude oil prices extend recovery

LONDON (AFP) - World oil prices were rising further, with Brent crude back above 60 dollars per barrel in London, as the market awaited the latest weekly snapshot of energy inventories in the United States.

New York's main contract, light sweet crude for delivery in December, rose seven cents to 59.42 dollars per barrel in electronic deals before the official opening of the US market Wednesday.

In London, Brent North Sea crude for December delivery gained 15 cents to 60.01 dollars per barrel in electronic trading.

Prices began rebounding on Tuesday on concerns that cold weather in the United States would increase demand for heating fuel, traders said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20061025/bs_afp/commoditiesenergyoil_061025112227

[ozymandius]

5. Gas prices are down, but not surcharges

Gasoline prices have swooned in the past three months, falling to $2.20 a gallon nationally after peaking at more than $3. But hop on an airplane, send a package or even ride a SuperShuttle to the airport and you'll still pay a fuel surcharge.

After a summer of sky-high prices at the pump, South Florida consumers feel like they're getting a reprieve with gas prices in the $2.40-a-gallon range.

But executives at fuel-dependent companies say that despite plummeting gas prices, the price of oil is still high -- much higher than before hurricane damage to Gulf Coast refineries that disrupted supplies and jitters over the Mideast pushed up prices.

Since last year, the executives said, their companies have been paying higher fuel costs without being able to pass all of them on to consumers in the form of extra fuel surcharges like those many slapped on this summer.

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/15833195.htm

[ozymandius]

7. If House changes hands, oil drilling threat will recede

Maybe the polls and pundits are right about the Democrats' chances of regaining one or both chambers of Congress. Of course the Philadelphia Eagles thought they had the football game in hand Sunday when the Bucs lined up for a 62-yard field goal with 4 seconds left on the game clock. But let's assume the Democrats win back the House, which would be the equivalent of, say, making a 40-yard field goal.

One threat that has haunted Floridians for the past year would likely disappear overnight: Offshore drilling. The person almost single-handedly pushing the House effort to move oil rigs closer to Florida beaches is Rep. Richard Pombo, a California Republican. As chairman of the House Resources Committee, Pombo has had a stranglehold on the issue, even killing House efforts to consider a more responsible Senate drilling plan in the gulf.

If either of two scenarios plays out, Florida could be off the hook, at least for now. Pombo could lose his re-election bid. Only three of California's House races are competitive, and Pombo's is one of them.

http://www.sptimes.com/2006/10/24/Opinion/If_House_changes_hand.shtml

[ozymandius]

9. Clean, green oil sands seen as affordable

A few bucks per barrel of crude oil — that's how much it could cost Alberta's oil-sands industry if it chose to become "carbon neutral" by 2020, according to a report released yesterday by the Pembina Institute.

The report says major oil producers are profitable enough and the price of oil high enough to justify the required investment in carbon capture and storage technologies, or the purchase of carbon-offset credits from other jurisdictions.

"So much of the oil-sands infrastructure is being designed, engineered and built now," said Marlo Raynolds, executive director of the Pembina Institute, a not-for-profit energy think-tank. "We know that retrofitting later on is going to cost more money and be more painful. So there's this huge opportunity to get it right."

-cut-

"Since legally mandated processes, such as sulphur and lead removal from fuel, are cost equivalent to reducing carbon in the oil sands on a per barrel basis, it lends further support for the possibility of achieving a carbon neutral state," says the report, emphasizing that carbon capture or offsets should only be pursued after an effort has been made to lower emissions through improved energy efficiency and using less carbon-intensive fuel.

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1161640212357&call_pageid=970599119419

[54anickel]

34. Oil leaps on OPEC cuts and US fuel stocks fall

http://maconareaonline.com/news.asp?id=15435

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices leapt more than a dollar on Wednesday after other OPEC members, including its second biggest producer Iran, followed Saudi Arabia's lead in enforcing output cuts and U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly fell.

U.S. light crude was trading $1.35 a barrel higher at $60.70 a barrel by 1450 GMT. London Brent was $1.42 higher at $61.28 a barrel.

U.S. crude had already risen 54 cents on Tuesday after Abu Dhabi's state oil firm told major customers it would cut crude exports by about 5 percent in November.

On Wednesday, an Iranian official said Iran had also informed customers it was cutting supplies by 176,000 bpd in November.

Leading OPEC producer Saudi Arabia, which is shouldering the greatest part of a 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) production cut agreed last week, had informed customers earlier this week it would cut back November supplies.

Wednesday's price gains gathered momentum after a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories, which declined by 3.3 million barrels, according to U.S. government data, compared with analyst forecasts for a 2.6 million barrel increase.

more...

[davhill]

36. Oil prices can't go back up yet

The election is still two weeks away

[Demeter]

6. Pigs At The Trough--Summary on Cheney/BushCo Profiteers from Wa Po

Lockheed Profit Up 47% As It Plans to Diversify

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/24/AR2006102401249.html?referrer=email

Lockheed Martin Corp. reported yesterday that third-quarter profit jumped 47 percent as the Bethesda weapons maker continued to benefit from a growing defense budget, even as it outlined plans to pursue new lines of business should government spending slow.

In a conference call with reporters and analysts, Christopher E. Kubasik, Lockheed's chief financial officer, touted a diversification plan that will take the company into new markets -- from making trucks to building embassies -- at a time when many analysts expect spending on the Iraq war effort to force cuts in other defense programs.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/24/AR2006102401237.html?referrer=email

Halliburton Cited For Iraq Overhead
Costs in Oil Contract Called Extreme

By Griff Witte


Administrative overhead accounted for more than half the costs that a Halliburton Co. subsidiary passed on to the government under a key contract to restore Iraq's oil industry, a figure that critics said was unusually high.

A report released yesterday by the inspector general's office overseeing Iraq spending found that at least 55 percent, or $163 million, of $296 million in total costs rung up by Halliburton unit KBR went to expenses such as back-office support, transportation and security. That percentage was significantly higher than it was on work by other firms in Iraq, and experts said it is far above what is typically found on a government contract.

The findings are the latest that call into question KBR's work under the deal, which required the company to rehabilitate oil facilities in southern Iraq. Under the contract's terms, KBR is reimbursed for its costs and then receives a percentage for profit on top, an arrangement that critics contend has given the firm an incentive to run up its bills.


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/24/AR2006102401246.html?referrer=email

End of Enron's Saga Brings Era to a Close
Corporate-Crime Enforcement Shifts Focus

By Carrie Johnson
Washington Post Staff Writer

HOUSTON, Oct. 24 -- The sentencing Monday of former Enron Corp. chief executive Jeffrey K. Skilling ended the saga of the scandal-ridden Houston energy company and effectively closed the book on an era of high-profile corporate malfeasance.

Skilling's sentence capped a string of lengthy prison terms handed down to top executives for economic crimes, including WorldCom Inc. founder Bernard J. Ebbers, now serving 25 years, and Adelphia Communications Corp. founder John J. Rigas, facing 15 years pending appeal.

But Enron remains that period's signature scandal. The company's December 2001 breakdown ushered in a wave of corporate collapses that roiled investor confidence and prompted the government to enlist a special band of prosecutors and FBI agents to mount the most complex business fraud investigation in history. Their pursuit of top Enron officials helped change the way corporate wrongdoing is prosecuted and spurred companies to more aggressively police themselves.

Hours after a judge sentenced Skilling to more than 24 years in prison, the leaders of the Enron Task Force announced that they would close up shop, saying their mission was mostly complete. But even as officials packed their files and prepared for other jobs in government and the private sector, there were fresh signals about the direction post-Enron corporate crime enforcement would take.


{ARTICLE CONTINUES WITH TODAY'S SCANDAL INVESTIGATIONS AT QUITE SOME LENGTH)

[ozymandius]

8. This part is interesting.

That percentage was significantly higher than it was on work by other firms in Iraq, and experts said it is far above what is typically found on a government contract.

I wonder how much of that has ended up in Cheney's deferred compensation package?

[54anickel]

26. Army paid millions in Iraq deal overhead-Government blamed in audit of 2004 oil project

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4285514.html

snip>

The government was at fault for taking "only limited action to reduce administrative and overhead costs during the periods of project inactivity" on jobs to rebuild oil infrastructure, electrical and water facilities, hospitals and schools, the audit by Special Inspector General for Iraq Stuart Bowen said.

Bowen in his audit didn't question the validity of the KBR invoices, which were the largest of the contractors.

Instead, the audit referenced a letter of concern to Halliburton, the largest contractor in Iraq, from an Army contracting officer in August 2004 stating "the contract was accruing exorbitant costs at a rapid pace."

snip>

"It is important to note that the special inspector general is not challenging any of KBR's costs referenced in this report," Halliburton spokeswoman Melissa Norcross said in an e-mail statement.

"All of these costs were incurred at the client's direction and for the client's benefit, and they have been extensively audited and deemed allowable."

more....

:eyes: Whatever...so why isn't anyone tying in the "persecution" of whistleblowers? KBR/Hellaburnin blame the gov't - but is there really any difference between the two anymore? They're in cahoots with each other right up to the office of the VP.

[UpInArms]

10. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.51 Change -0.20 (-0.23%)

Dollar Bulls are Positioning for Hawkish FOMC Statement

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/Dollar_Bulls_are_Positioning_for_1161725234654.html

US Dollar - Tomorrow will be the make it or break day for the US dollar as both the Euro and Japanese Yen trade within an arm’s reach of 1.25 and 120 against the US dollar. Yesterday, we explored the most likely outcome of the Fed meeting and concluded that given recent comments from Fed officials, they are far more likely to be concerned about inflation than economic weakness and the statement should reflect that. In fact, Lacker may not be the only voter to favor a rate hike in the month of October. However, with consumers stretched thin, the manufacturing sector languishing, the surprise drop in the Richmond Fed business activity index, mid-term elections around the corner and the possibility of declines in the housing market, an actual rate hike tomorrow is nearly impossible. Yet, even if the FOMC statement is hawkish, the main question will be whether there are enough buyers out there to continue to take the US dollar higher. Implied dollar positions based off of Friday’s COT report indicate that dollar longs are now at the highest level since December 2005. We have often said that 1.25 has proven to be rock solid support in the EUR/USD, but we do not talk enough about 120 in USD/JPY. Central bank comments from around the world have frequently surfaced when the currency pair nears that level and we suspect the same will happen if we head there once again. It hasn’t been that long since Russia said they were buying yen. Unfortunately, the potential impact of the Fed meeting is most likely overstated and even if we do see a dollar rally, the rally could be limited to 60-70 pips for each currency pair – which would not be enough to spark a meaningful up tick in FX volatility. The predictability of central banks has pushed volatility towards its record lows, but whenever this happens, there is always something that comes out of the left field to wake the market up.


...more...

FOMC Preview: How Are Markets Positioned for the Announcement?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/cross_markets_data_reaction/FOMC_Preview__How_Are_Markets_1161733575328.html

How are the Markets Positioned for FOMC?

Since Monday, the markets have been thinking about nothing other than tomorrow’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting. Traders have already begun to position for it as they send the stock market, US dollar and bond yields higher. Even though yields on the 10 year notes and December Eurodollar futures have been moving up significantly, Fed fund futures have not budged much, indicating that regardless of how the Fed sways, the key takeaway point is that interest rates will be left unchanged. The stock and FX markets have not recognized this, but with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the EUR/USD at key levels, these markets may only have a limited reaction to a hawkish tone in the FOMC statement.

What are the Fed’s options?

To answer this question, we look at what the Fed is not expected to do, which is to increase or decrease interest rates from its current level of 5.25 percent. However what they could do is to change their assessment of the economy and price stability. Even though recent economic data have been far from stellar, the details of the reports suggest that there is still enough underlying strength to keep the economy running. In regards to price stability, core prices tend to lag headline prices and for the time being, core price inflation remains persistently strong. Individual Fed Presidents have already raised concern about the high level of core rates, which suggests that the statement could make that view official. Yet judging from the recent movements in the bond and currency markets, most traders have already priced this in, which raises the question of how much more the US dollar and yields can rise if the Fed really is hawkish. The 1.2500 level in the EUR/USD and the 120 level in USD/JPY have proven to be tough barriers to break in many previous instances and unless the Fed is ultra hawkish, they could continue to hold. The case for an ultra hawkish statement is weak as the strong earnings reports in the market as a whole mask the weakness in companies like Ford and Caterpillar. Furthermore, sparking speculation of a return to rate hikes could be disastrous for the US consumers who are stretched thin on borrowed credit. Therefore, we believe that traders have greatly overestimated the hawkish intent of the Fed. At best the Central Bank is likely to keep rates steady in the next few quarters rather than raise them.

...more...

[ozymandius]

12. I would like to echo a question posed here yesterday.

What is making the dollar defy the laws of gravity?

[OrangeCountyDemocrat]

24. I Also Want To Know

Fed Doesn't Change Interest Rates...

Dollar Stays Firm...

Oil & Gold Prices Fall...

Market Soars...

Inflation "Supposedly" Holds...

?????????????????????????

election?

[skids]

46. Well a partial answer...

Is that the dollar is only holding steady when compared to other currencies, not to solid goods. So there are really two questions -- why hasn't the dollar fallen more in relation to solid goods than it has, and why do other major currencies follow the dollar as it falls.

[Egnever]

48. Good question

why do other major currencies follow the dollar as it falls.

I don't understand this one at all.

[54anickel]

51. Libertarians will tell you it's Central Banks and fiat currency - there is

not so much a global race in currency debasement, as an attempt to bring those of the developed world down in a "soft-landing". The CBs are sort of caught up in this together. I'm no economist nor Libertarian so I sure don't have an answer. :shrug:

http://www.dailyreckoning.co.uk/article/19102006.html

Central banks: The real barbarous relic

[54anickel]

32. CBI reports drop in UK manufacturing

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/f1944ff4-6345-11db-bc82-0000779e2340.html

snip>

The balance of minus 5 per cent was the lowest since January and calls into question whether the sector can continue to match the average growth of 0.77 per cent recorded over the first three quarters of the year.

However, sterling and governments bonds were little changed on the news as traders calculated that the softer-than-expected report would not dissuade the Bank of England from raising interest rates to 5 per cent in November.

Indeed, the report also contained further evidence of inflationary pressures continuing to build at the beginning of the supply chain, as the balance of manufacturers expecting to increase their prices over the next three months climbed from 6 per cent in July to 12 per cent in October.

Richard McGuire at RBC Capital Markets said the report was “much weaker than anticipated and accompanied by poor forward-looking indicators. However, while the outlook for industrial activity is not bright, producers appear to be increasingly resolved in raising prices”.

snip>

Ian McCafferty, CBI chief economic advisor, said: “The unexpectedly strong recovery in manufacturing over the first half of the year has not been sustained and it looks as if we are entering a period of slightly more modest growth. The slowdown in the US has clearly dampened export orders and domestic demand remains fragile.”

more...

French consumer spending drops sharply
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b8868c90-6340-11db-bc82-0000779e2340.html

French consumer spending on manufactured goods fell at its sharpest rate in almost 10 years in September, tempering optimism over the recent consumer-fuelled upswing in economic growth.

Household spending on manufactured goods fell 2.7 per cent month on month, the French statistics agency INSEE said on Tuesday, a stronger correction than economists had expected after a rise of 3 per cent in August. Quarterly growth in spending slowed to 1.2 per cent after a 1.4 per cent rise in the second quarter.

“It shows we musn’t cry victory too soon, or fall victim to an excess of optimism,” said Marc Touati, chief economist at Natexis Banques Populaires, adding that consumers had funded purchases by cutting savings and taking on record levels of debt, leaving them limited resources to continue spending.

snip>

Most economists were more sanguine about long-term trends. “It’s a strong monthly variation but on a quarterly basis the momemtum remains very good,” said Olivier Gasnier, economist at Société Générale, adding that he expected an easing in petrol prices and improving unemployment levels to underpin a marked improvement in the fourth quarter.

more...


Japan's Trade Surplus Unexpectedly Widens 6.9 Percent (Update3)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRmYzwmNUl1s&refer=home

Oct. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's trade surplus unexpectedly widened in September as rising overseas demand for automobiles and electronics and a weaker yen bolstered exports.

The trade surplus rose 6.9 percent to 1.01 trillion yen ($8.5 billion) from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 36 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for the surplus to narrow to 859.4 billion yen.

Overseas demand for Toyota Motor Corp. automobiles and Fujitsu Ltd. electronics fueled an increase in the trade surplus, which has only expanded three times this year as higher oil prices boosted imports. Growth in the world's second-largest economy has been driven by business investment to meet higher demand overseas amid sluggish consumer spending at home.

snip>

A recent decline in crude oil prices will cause import growth to slow, allowing the trade surplus to swell further, according to economist Noriaki Haseyama.

snip>

A weaker yen is making Japanese exports more competitive abroad. The yen has declined 3.5 percent against the dollar and 7 percent against the euro in the past 12 months. The yen traded at 119.22 per dollar at 11:18 a.m. in Tokyo from 119.37 before the report was published.

Exports to the U.S. surged 20.4 percent to a record in September on demand for fuel-efficient vehicles, the ministry said. Shipments to China, Japan's second-largest overseas market, rose 19.8 percent. Exports to the European Union climbed 14.1 percent.

more...

[54anickel]

37. UPDATE 2-Fed seen holding rates steady,warning on inflation

http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2006-10-25T145253Z_01_N25352057_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-FED-UPDATE-2.XML

WASHINGTON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve officials were universally expected to decide on Wednesday to keep interest rates steady but could heighten a warning on inflation to make clear they will raise rates again if needed.

snip>

At mid-morning, the National Association of Realtors reported sales of existing homes fell for a sixth straight month in September to a 6.18-million annual rate and median prices were down modestly from a year earlier.

"This suggests that we still have a very weak housing market and that housing will probably be a drag on the economy going forward, causing the Fed to hold interest rates steady," said Gary Thayer, chief economist for A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis.

Financial markets were largely becalmed ahead of the Fed decision, though bond prices ticked up after release of the soft September housing-sales data that underlined strains the expansion faces.

Economists have noted signs of economic slowing since early August that appear to justify the rate halt. But the tenor of policy-makers' comments on inflation has led to questions on whether the next rate move, when it happens, will be up or down.

more....

Keep 'em all guessing, under report inflation for now, keep that card up their sleeve in case the dollar needs support down the road. That's my guess anyway - any rate increase will have less to do with the "official" stated reason of inflation and more to do with propping the buck. Good luck with that.

[ozymandius]

11. FTSE hits fresh five-year high

Renewed strength in the mining sector pushed London equities to a fresh five-year high on Wednesday.

The FTSE 100 index was 25.5 points, or 0.4 per cent, higher at 6,208.0 at mid-day, its highest level since February 2001.

The mid-cap FTSE 250 rose 17 points, or 0.2 per cent, to 10,418.0, a new all-time high.

-cut-

However, trading was cautious, ahead of the latest US interest rate decision. US rates are expected to be kept on hold at 5.25 per cent when the Federal Reserve announces its decision later today.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20061025/bs_ft/fto102520060717272261

[lcordero2]

13. ??????

Do you have any suggestions for Introductory/Beginner type books?

[ozymandius]

15. Try looking here.

This thread has some good suggestions.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=114&topic_id=19353#19372

You might also look up John Kenneth Galbraith's works like "The Affluent Society" and "Money: Whence it came, where it went".

[lcordero2]

17. .

thank you:)

[ozymandius]

14. Stock futures trading in narrow range

LONDON - U.S. stock futures on Wednesday traded in a very tight range, with traders waiting for the afternoon's Federal Reserve decision and with earnings season set to continue with automaker General Motors among the companies due to reveal third-quarter performance.

Dow Jones futures were recently up 4 points, S&P 500 futures rose 0.4 of a point and Nasdaq futures edged up 2.8 points.

-cut-

The Fed is due to make its interest rate decision public at 2:15 p.m. EDT. The Fed is all but certain to hold its key interest rate at 5.25%, with the accompanying statement to be eyed for signs on whether the policymakers have grown more hawkish.

Also on the economic docket will be existing-home sales for September, which are expected to have slumped to 6.23 million from 6.3 million.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061025/ap_on_bi_st_ma_re/wall_street

[texpatriot2004]

16. K&R nt

[Tace]

18. American Gov't Moving To Take Control Of The World-Wide Economy (Mogambo)

Richard Daughty, the angriest guy in economics -- World News Trust

Oct. 25, 2006 -- I was totally, totally unprepared for Total Fed Credit going up only $352 million last week. Less than a half-billion dollars! I mean, if you are going to continue to goose the economy and destroy the dollar with more and more money at cheaper and cheaper interest rates, like the wildly-irresponsible Federal Reserve has been doing for a decade, this is NOT how you do it.

Quickly, I looked to Securities Bought Outright, and it was actually down $364 million! And Currency in Circulation was also down by almost a billion, too!

Even foreign central banks seem to have paused in their ravenous gluttony for American government and agency debt, and their stash held at the Fed was down $1.6 billion last week. But even so, it's a mere pittance down from the record set last week, when their hoard rose to $1.687 trillion.

Perhaps this has something to do with the article "Reserves underscore China's financial clout" by Andrew Brown of the Wall Stree Journal. He writes, "The latest data from the U.S. Treasury Department show that, as of June 2005, China's public and private sectors held a total of at least $527.3 billion in U.S. securities, including about $450 billion of long-term U.S. Treasury or agency debt. Roughly 70 percent of the Chinese reserves are believed to be in U.S. dollar assets, 20 percent in euros and 10 percent in other currencies, including the Japanese yen and Korean won, according to Brad Setser, an economist at Roubini Global Economics."

This glut of money has resulted in, naturally, inflation, and now, "Chinese central bankers also worry that the plentiful supply of yuan is overheating China's economy and causing unwelcome inflation. Asked by reporters last month about the size of the reserves, central-bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said: 'We think we've got enough.'"

more

http://www.worldnewstrust.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=452

[54anickel]

19. Revolt of the fairly rich

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/10/30/8391806/index.htm?postversion=2006102508

snip>

But the hopes and dreams of today's educated class are based on the idea that market capitalism is a meritocracy. The unreachable success of the superrich shreds those dreams.

"I've seen it in my research," says pollster Doug Schoen, who counsels Michael Bloomberg and Hillary Clinton, among others. "If you look at the lower part of the upper class or the upper part of the upper middle class, there's a great deal of frustration. These are people who assumed that their hard work and conventional 'success' would leave them with no worries. It's the type of rumbling that could lead to political volatility."

Lower uppers are doctors, accountants, engineers, lawyers. At companies they're mostly executives above the rank of VP but below the CEO. Their comrades include well-fed members of the media (and even Fortune columnists who earn their living as consultants).

Lower uppers are professionals who by dint of schooling, hard work and luck are living better than 99 percent of the humans who have ever walked the planet. They're also people who can't help but notice how many folks with credentials like theirs are living in Gatsby-esque splendor they'll never enjoy.

This stings. If people no smarter or better than you are making ten or 50 or 100 million dollars in a single year while you're working yourself ragged to earn a million or two - or, God forbid, $400,000 - then something must be wrong.

more...

[54anickel]

22. Analysis: Backdating costs firms $10.3 billion

Hmmmm, so was some of this back dating stuff about appeasing the "fairly rich" folk?

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wrap25.2oct25,1,811611.story?coll=la-headlines-business

The option backdating scandal is adding up, costing the involved companies $10.3 billion total in lost share price and additional compensation expenses, according to an analysis by a proxy advisory firm.

The companies with disclosed option backdating problems have booked an additional $5.2 billion in pretax compensation expenses and their collective market value has dropped $5.1 billion since their disclosures, according to an analysis by proxy advisor Glass, Lewis & Co.

Lynn Turner, managing director of research at Glass Lewis and former chief accountant for the Securities and Exchange Commission, said the list was a scorecard. "If it were a baseball game, we'd be at the 25th inning," he said. "Something tells me we'll still be talking about this in December."

bit more...

[Hugin]

25. I've detected a similar 'back dating' scheme running among the...

crooked 'junk debt collection' industry.

It's only going to get worse as the IRS privatizes it's collection
activities. (But, not for the fairly rich)

Clean up on aisle three!
Clean up on aisle three!

[Hugin]

23. "God forbid, $400,000"

Well now... I guess, I should be *really* upset.

But, I'm not. I decided long ago I don't want to do the things required
to be in that category of 'success'.

It's not in my nature.

As long as I have my three squares and I can think about my 'one thing'.

It's all right.

[54anickel]

27. I guess "Rich" is a relative term, one that I cannot relate to at all. n/t

[AnneD]

29. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: 54anickel, all I can say after reading that article is boofuckityhoo :nopity: They can whine about the haves and the have mores all day long...but try busting your ass, being smart, educated, and still being a have not because you don't have a connection or made a trivial error and got your career sidelined. Meritocracy my ass.

For years we have had merit raises in hospitals. Doing your job at the bedside well (which in my opinion should merit more than a 2% raise) will maybe keep inflation from taking too big a bite out of your 40K check. In order to get the whopping 5% you would have to be on every committee in the hospital, get high marks from the peer review board (aka the inquisition), and submit a proposal to 'improve' something at the hospital. After a 12+ hr day of stress and terror, I have just enough energy to get home but not enough to do that piddly crap. Now our glorious CEO that makes 450K can get another 100k per year raise by coming up with such novel ways to save money such as using 25% fewer Nurses to handle the same number of patients. He in essence pockets the money that should pay for staffing for patient care.

And there you have the meritocracy that is modern health care. I won't even get to the 'faculty dining room' that is like a 4 star restaurant. Nurses are barely able to get a lunch for being the primary care givers where as the 'Doc's' not only enjoy a sit down lunch-it's five star. You would think you might remember those that cover your ass 24/7 (and God Bless those kind Doc's that do remember us in a very real and substantial way).

I'm glad these folks are getting but a taste of what we live with every day.

[Hugin]

31. Morning AnneD!

:hangover:

That is not to say I'm opposed to a 'meritocracy'. It's what we've all been sold
since we were ankle-nippers.

It's not what exists...

[AnneD]

39. I guess since we are at the

bottom of the food chain....we discover the truth earlier.:shrug:

[54anickel]

20. Poll: Hedge funds have high hopes

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hedge25oct25,1,734600.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Americans are betting that hedge funds will make them rich even at a time when these once-highflying portfolios are lagging behind the broader market.

Research firm Morningstar Inc. polled 600 advisors in August and found that 65% of them expected more than double-digit growth in alternative investments, which include hedge funds, and that 67% of them reported that more than 10% of their clients were already using alternative investments.

"We were surprised to find that the majority of advisors expect double-digit growth in alternative assets under management every year for the next five years," said Steve Deutsch, director of separate accounts and managed investments at Morningstar.

Loosely regulated hedge funds earned a reputation for delivering huge returns to wealthy investors and pension funds a few years ago. Now, financial advisors who help a broad swath of Americans invest their savings want in too.

About 9,000 hedge funds jointly invest about $1.3 trillion, about twice as much as five years ago. But expectations for high returns might be unrealistic.

more...

[54anickel]

21. Will Skilling get prison of choice?

Federal officials have final say on whether he'll do time in system's 'crown jewel'

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/4285546.html

The North Carolina prison where former Enron CEO Jeff Skilling has asked to serve his sentence is considered "the crown jewel" of the federal prison system, according to one prison expert, but it's hardly the "Club Fed" some might imagine.

The Butner Federal Correctional Complex, about 45 minutes northeast of Durham, is sought after by convicts in the know because of the quality of the facilities and staff, said Alan Ellis, a specialist in sentencing and placement of white-collar criminals and author of a guidebook on prisons.

There are minimum-, low- and medium-security facilities at Butner that, in some ways, look like a college campus behind barbed wire, Ellis said. The medical facility at Butner is also highly regarded, particularly for its cancer-treatment programs.

"They attract very professional staff, and the rule is that a happy staff makes for a happy inmate," Ellis said.


Infamous inmates
There are about 3,600 inmates at Butner, including former U.S. Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, who is serving time for accepting bribes, and former Navy intelligence analyst Jonathan Pollard, who is serving a life sentence for leaking secrets to the Israeli government. Past inmates include would-be presidential assassin John Hinckley Jr. and televangelist Jim Bakker.

more...

[AnneD]

30. That is my

back up retirement plan. I am having a hard time coming up with a criminal act so outrageous that it will land me in club fed. I want a little bit more than three hots and a cot, but look what you have to do to bet there. I don't think I could embezzel THAT much money.

[Hugin]

35. It's a 'Catch 22'...

To be in a 'Have' prison you must be a 'Have' already.

It's an exclusivity thing...

[54anickel]

38. 11:48 pre-lunch check

Dow 12,099.14 DOWN 28.74 (0.24%)
Nasdaq 2,352.59 UP 7.75 (0.33%)
S&P 500 1,378.82 UP 1.44 (0.10%)
10-yr Bond 4.7990% DOWN 0.0250
30-yr Bond 4.9230% DOWN 0.0190
NYSE Volume 1,195,775,000
Nasdaq Volume 823,788,000

11:30 am : More of the same for stocks as investors continue to consolidate some of the gains that closed the Dow at another new record yesterday. Of the 19 Dow components trading lower, General Motors (GM 34.69 -1.50) is pacing the way with a 4% decline. Albeit swinging to a much larger than expected profit in Q3, a nearly 9% surge in GM shares over the last three sessions to a 52-week high in anticipation of a solid report has prompted some profit taking. GM's accounts for a 12-point negative impact on the index. Boeing (BA 81.04 -2.55) also beat expectations but a shortfall on revenues is contributing to some consolidation in shares to the tune of 3.0% -- a 20-point negative impact on the Dow.DJ30 -33.54 NASDAQ +8.32 SP500 +1.23 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1142/1635/716 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1083/1963/592 mln

11:00 am : Since the last update, the Dow has slipped to its lowest levels of the day while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 have pared their modest gains. The most noticeable reason for the pullback can be attributed to oil prices spiking to session highs. Crude oil futures are now up more than 2% at $60.60/bbl following an unexpected drawdown in weekly crude supplies and a larger than expected decline in gasoline inventories. Fortunately for the bulls, oil's advance has subsequently renewed leadership in the Energy sector (+1.6%) and optimism about energy profits, minimizing the market's retreat. The focus tomorrow will squarely be on a Q3 report from Dow component Exxon Mobil (XOM 70.01 +0.12). DJ30 -28.18 NASDAQ +8.46 SP500 +1.27 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1027/1688/580 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1066/1928/448 mln

10:30 am : Market improves its stance within the last 30 minutes, due in large part to a turnaround in Dow component Altria Group (MO 81.16 +1.34). Altria opened down 1% and was weighing on the price-weighted index after posting lighter than expected revenues; however, shares have since turned the corner and are up 2.2% as Altria intends to finalize a decision on the distribution of its 88% stake in Kraft Foods (KFT 34.57 -0.79) in January. Separately, investors recently received more confirmation that the slowdown in housing remains a drag on the overall economy, keeping the debate open as to the degree to which it will pull down overall GDP growth. September existing home sales fell 1.9% to a 6.18 mln annual rate (consensus 6.25 mln) -- the lowest level since January 2005. Be that as it may, a sixth straight decline was not a huge surprise as investors will instead wait to key in on what the Fed will say this afternoon about the "cooling of the housing market."DJ30 +5.36 NASDAQ +14.52 SP500 +2.94 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1059/1576/402 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1021/1850/290 mln

10:00 am : Major averages remain mixed as split industry leadership continues to dictate early action. Of the six economic sectors trading higher, Technology is pacing the way, as evidenced by the Nasdaq turning in the best performance among the majors this morning. Semiconductor Equipment (+1.4%) is getting a big boost from KLA-Tencor (KLAC 49.31 +3.55), which posted a 30% jump in Q1 revenue and raised its outlook for Q2, while Adobe Systems (ADBE 38.79 +0.70) backing its Q4 guidance is lending support for Application Software (+1.0%). Consumer Staples, following strong Q3 reports from Colgate-Palmolive (CL 62.24 +1.77) and Reynolds American (RAI 66.75 +2.35), is also providing some notable support. However, the absence of leadership from Health Care and Industrials adds to the uncertainty of more aggressively extending recent gains in the face of upcoming Fed commentary. DJ30 -7.45 NASDAQ +7.30 SOX +1.6% SP500 +0.92 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1066/1350/154 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1052/1597/78 mln

09:40 am : Not surprising, the majority of this morning's earnings reports have topped Wall Street forecasts. Nonetheless, with another strong quarter of double-digit profit growth being priced into the market of late, as evidenced by the S&P 500 sitting near 6-year highs with aggregate EPS for Q3 now on pace to grow a stronger than expected 18%, investors are taking a breather and standing pat ahead of today's Fed decision on monetary policy (2:15 ET). Since the market is totally convinced that policy makers will not raise interest rates again this cycle, the accompanying policy directive statement carries some risk as central bankers are likely to express concern about inflation. DJ30 -9.61 NASDAQ +3.53 SP500 +0.19 NASDAQ Vol 102 mln NYSE Vol 60 mln

[ozymandius]

41. lunchtime check-in

Dow 12,094.82 Down 33.06 (0.27%)
Nasdaq 2,350.30 Up 5.46 (0.23%)
S&P 500 1,377.94 Up 0.56 (0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.8020% Down 0.0220
NYSE Volume 1,388,346,000
Nasdaq Volume 957,554,000

12:00 pm : The indices remain mixed midday as investors weigh another batch of strong earnings reports against surging oil prices and uncertainty as to what the Fed will say about inflation in this afternoon's policy statement.

Without question, the focal point today continues to surround the culmination of a two-day FOMC meeting that is widely regarded to end with the overnight lending rate staying unchanged at 5.25% (2:15 ET). What is not a foregone conclusion, however, is what the accompanying policy directive will imply about further rate hikes. As a result, investors remain cautiously optimistic about more aggressively extending recent gains in the face of upcoming Fed commentary.

The biggest name out with results today has been Altria Group (MO 81.30 +1.48), which missed analysts' expectations but is trading higher (+1.9%) after raising its full-year profit outlook and finally setting a timetable for spinning off its 88% stake in Kraft Foods (KFT 34.70 -0.66). Also lending support for Consumer Staples have been strong Q3 reports from Colgate-Palmolive (CL 62.09 +1.62) and Reynolds American (RAI 65.82 +1.42).

Turning in an even stronger performance among the five sectors posting gains has been Energy. A better than expected report from ConocoPhillips (COP 62.82 +1.42) provided initial support but the sector has gotten an additional boost from a 2.5% rise in oil prices. Crude oil futures are back to closing in on $61/bbl following an unexpected drawdown in weekly crude supplies, which renews optimism about energy profits but from an inflationary standpoint has kept gains on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq minimal.

As evidenced by the Nasdaq turning in the best performance among the majors today, Technology is also offering some market. Semiconductor Equipment (+3.5%) is getting a big boost from KLA-Tencor (KLAC 50.07 +4.31), which posted a 30% jump in Q1 revenue and raised its outlook for Q2, while Adobe Systems (ADBE 39.51 +1.42) backing its Q4 guidance is lending support for the software group.

Industrials has been in focus after Dow component Boeing (BA 81.18 -2.41) topped expectations; but a shortfall on revenues and revised FY06 guidance has offset strong earnings-induced gains from Burlington Northern (BNI 80.77 +1.42), Norfolk Southern (NSC 54.35 +5.55) and Ryder System (R 53.85 +1.79). The latter three are helping the Dow Jones Transportation Average hit its best levels in three months, but an overall decline for the Industrials sector removes some notable leadership only eclipsed by Health Care (-0.7%). DJ30 -24.68 DJTA +1.2% DJUA +1.3% DOT +0.5% NASDAQ +7.86 NQ100 +0.6% R2K +0.6% SOX +2.5% SP400 +0.5% SP500 +1.82 XOI +1.3% NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1134/1686/836 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1109/1993/706 mln

[ozymandius]

45. updating blather

12:30 pm : The indices are retracing morning lows as the afternoon session gets underway. The driving catalyst behind a pullback that has pushed the S&P 500 into the red for the first time since the open are oil prices hitting fresh session highs. Crude for December delivery is now up 3.0% and back above $61/bbl, which continues to provide support for the profit engine that is Energy but weighing on retailers and prompting some consolidation in transportation stocks. DJ30 -40.98 DJTA +0.7% NASDAQ +2.05 SP500 -0.52 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1185/1662/948 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1141/1993/808 mln

[54anickel]

44. Organized Crime Steals Millions From Online Brokers

The feds are investigating fraudulent activities that have cost brokers and their clients millions, forcing one company to take a one-time charge of $18 million.

http://www.informationweek.com/security/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=193401909

Criminals have broken into customer accounts at several American online brokers, including E*Trade, and made off with millions, brokers have acknowledged. Federal authorities are investigating.

Last week during a conference call with financial analysts, New York-based E*Trade noted that it had taken a one-time charge of $18 million due to online fraud.

"We have experienced a serious increase in fraud relating to identity theft," said Mitchell Caplan, E*Trade's chief executive, in the earnings call last Wednesday. That fraud, said Caplan, has been traced to a "concerted ring in Eastern Europe and Thailand," but new processes and technology had nearly eliminated the fraud. "In the last three weeks, we've seen that level of fraud drop to almost zero," Caplan claimed. Both the FBI and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are looking into the fraud, he said.

According to reports by Bloomberg News, Omaha, Neb.-based TD Ameritrade has also been hit by fraudsters out of Europe and Asia.

The criminals are using a number of profitable techniques, said Ameritrade and other sources quoted by Bloomberg, including a "pump-and-dump" scheme where thieves used customers' funds to drive up the prices of marginal stocks. The criminals would then sell shares they had purchased earlier for a large profit. The scheme typically sets off few or no security alerts at online brokers because no money is withdrawn from the compromised accounts, Bloomberg said. In other ploys, identity thieves open accounts using stolen names, then use those accounts for illegal trading or money laundering. Any investigation leads authorities to the victim, who appears to be responsible.

more...

Hmmmm, :tinfoilhat: secret agents of the Fed? Bwahahahahaha :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

49. Fed Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged (Funky spike in the charts -

sort of a hurrah no rate increase....oh, wait a minute...

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061025/fed_interest_rates.html?.v=11

WASHINGTON (AP) -- The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for a third consecutive meeting, hoping that a slowing economy will dampen a worrisome rise in inflation.

The Fed left its federal funds rate at 5.25 percent. It has been at that level since late June when the central bank raised rates for a 17th consecutive time in a two-year effort to combat rising inflation.

The decision to keep the funds rate unchanged means that the prime lending rate, the benchmark for millions of consumer and business loans, will remain at 8.25 percent.

Financial markets had widely expected no change in rates with investors believing that the central bank would want to avoid jolting markets just two weeks before the November congressional elections.

snip>

The Fed has now extended that pause for three straight meetings. Many economists believe Bernanke and his colleagues will leave rates unchanged for perhaps as long as a year as they watch to see whether the economy follows the Fed's hoped-for scenario of slowing enough to cause inflation to retreat from current levels.

more...

[54anickel]

50. and the buck dives

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=s

Last trade 86.35 Change -0.36 (-0.42%)

Settle Time 15:01 Open 86.70

Previous Close 86.71 High 86.72

Low 86.34 2006-10-25 14:21:02, 30 min delay

[54anickel]

52. 3:09 and shaking Fed doubts off for the final hour

Dow 12,113.79 -14.09 (0.12%)
Nasdaq 2,349.31 +4.47 (0.19%)
S&P 500 1,380.13 +2.75 (0.20%)
10-yr Bond 4.7770% -0.0470
30-yr Bond 4.9000% -0.0420
NYSE Volume 2,303,721,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,716,606,000

3:00 pm : The major averages have bounced off their worst levels of the day, but there still isn't a strong sense of conviction on either the bullish or bearish side of the aisle. A turnaround in Financials, which are taking a positive cue from a rally in Treasuries pushing bond yields to session lows, has been the most noticeable reason for the market's improvement. Given that the risk going into the report was that it would place a heightened emphasis on inflation concerns, Treasuries are catching a bid following the acknowledgement that the economy seems likely to expand but not at such a strong pace as to suggest the Fed is on the brink of tightening again. The 10-yr note is up 12 ticks to yield 4.76%.DJ30 -11.29 NASDAQ +2.74 SP500 +2.87 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1593/1393/1.62 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1539/1700/1.31 bln

2:30 pm : The market's recent recovery effort is short-lived as stocks remain choppy amid further analysis of a policy statement that leaves the door open for more tightening. Also, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker becoming the only member preferring a 1/4% hike, for a third straight month no less, lends some credibility to the Fed but also makes the pause less compelling. The actual text of the statement reads: "Economic growth has slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a cooling of the housing market. Going forward, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace.

Readings on core inflation have been elevated, and the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures. However, inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time, reflecting reduced impetus from energy prices, contained inflation expectations, and the cumulative effects of monetary policy actions and other factors restraining aggregate demand.

Nonetheless, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain. The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information." DJ30 -29.74 NASDAQ -3.32 SP500 +0.29 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1465/1495/1.43 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1331/1890/1.16 bln

2:15 pm : As expected, the Federal Reserve left the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25% for a third straight month. With respect to the accompanying policy directive, the Fed has asserted that economic growth has slowed over the course of the year, partly reflecting a cooling of the housing market, but since some inflation risks remain, additional firming may be needed to address these risks depending on incoming data. Initial responses in both the stock and bond markets is positive, but market action is expected to be volatile throughout the rest of the session. DJ30 +5.28 NASDAQ +8.37 SP500 +4.19 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1445/1524/1.35 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1371/1837/1.10 bln

2:00 pm : In the 15 minutes ahead of the FOMC announcement, the market is trying to regain some upward momentum. Be that as it may, the lack of conviction on the part of buyers continues to underscore a sense of caution should policy makers hint at the possibility of another rate hike and sideline expectations of a potential easing that bond traders have been discounting for weeks. DJ30 -19.93 NASDAQ +3.11 SP500 +1.49 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1448/1495/1.30 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1424/1784/1.07 bln

1:30 pm : More of the same for stocks as the indices continue to fluctuate around the unchanged mark for the most part. The market's holding pattern ahead of the Fed has been further evidenced in the A/D line, as advancers on the NYSE hold a slim 17-to-14 advantage over decliners while both advancing and declining issues on the Nasdaq remain evenly matched. The ratio of up to down volumes also paints a similarly neutral picture at the Big Board and the Composite as investors wait to see whether policy makers put more of an emphasis on inflationary pressures or risks of a slowdown.DJ30 -30.98 NASDAQ +2.85 SP500 +0.55 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1431/1483/1.20 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1420/1759/990 mln

1:00 pm : Little has changed since the last update as the major averages continue to vacillate in roughly the same ranges. It is worth noting, though, that sector leadership is quietly weakening ahead of the Fed's latest decision on monetary policy. Materials and Telecom have recently turned negative while Health Care -- the best performer in Q3 -- is extending its losses as the day's worst performing sector (-0.8%). To wit, Health Care Services (-4.5%) and Managed Health (-2.8%) rank #1 and #3 among today's biggest laggards following disappointments from Express Scripts (ESRX 64.89 -7.36) and WellPoint (WLP 76.03 -2.59), respectively. DJ30 -39.14 NASDAQ +2.45 SP500 -0.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1429/1473/1.08 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1373/1779/902 mln

[ozymandius]

53. turning out the lights and sweeping the floor

Fairies turned it around by sixty points from today's piehole low.
Dow 12,134.68 Up 6.80 (0.06%)
Nasdaq 2,356.59 Up 11.75 (0.50%)
S&P 500 1,382.22 Up 4.84 (0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.7730% Down 0.0510
NYSE Volume 2,917,411,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,188,571,000

4:20 pm : The indices finished near their best levels of the session as a Fed policy statement that offered no surprises helped investors refocus on the bottom line -- another batch of better than expected earnings reports. Although it posted a small gain, the Dow closed at another record high.

As expected, the Fed left the overnight lending rate unchanged at 5.25% for a third straight meeting. Given that the risk going into the report was that it would place a heightened emphasis on inflation concerns, acknowledgement that "the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace," but not at such a strong pace as to suggest the Fed is on the brink of tightening again, offered some relief.

Further, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker was the only member preferring a 1/4% hike. While Lacker's third straight dissention made the Fed's pause less compelling, it also lent some credibility to the Fed's focus on keeping elevated levels of core inflation under control. While the language of the policy statement was essentially the same, today's directive excluded the reference about the "prices of energy and other commodities" having the potential to sustain inflation pressures over time.

Directing the market's gains, though, was in fact strong leadership from the profit engine that is Energy (+1.7%) as a 3.4% surge in oil prices renewed optimism about the sector's ability to generate strong profits. To wit, ConocoPhillips (COP 62.84 +1.44) handily beat expectations while Exxon Mobil (XOM 70.95 +1.06) touched a new all-time high intraday ahead of its earnings report tomorrow morning. Crude oil futures closed at $61.37/bbl following an unexpected drawdown in weekly crude supplies and amid reports of more unrest in Nigeria.

Among today's biggest names reporting was Altria Group (MO 82.10 +2.28), which missed analysts' expectations but surged nearly 3% after raising its full-year profit outlook and finally setting a timetable for spinning off its 88% stake in Kraft Foods (KFT 35.31 -0.05). Also lending support to the Consumer Staples sector were strong Q3 reports from Colgate-Palmolive (CL 62.11 +1.64) and Reynolds American (RAI 65.27 +0.87).

As evidenced by the Nasdaq turning in the best performance among the majors, Technology also offered some notable leadership. Semiconductor Equipment (+3.2%) got a big boost from KLA-Tencor (KLAC 49.59 +3.83), which posted a 30% jump in Q1 revenue and raised its outlook for Q2. Adobe Systems (ADBE 38.94 +0.85) backing its Q4 guidance lent support for the software group.

Amazon.com (AMZN 37.68 +4.05), which is a component in the Consumer Discretionary sector, soared 12% after announcing cutbacks to improve margins. Its report gave a boost to Internet stocks across the board. Conversely, General Motors (GM 34.71 -1.48) acted as a drag on the sector, as its better than expected earnings report was greeted with a sell-the-news response. GM had gained nearly 9.0% over the last three sessions to a 52-week high in anticipation of a solid report.

The Industrials sector was also in focus after Dow component Boeing (BA 80.83 -2.76) topped expectations; but a shortfall on revenues and revised FY06 guidance offset strong earnings-induced gains from Norfolk Southern (NSC 53.73 +4.93) and Ryder System (R 53.60 +1.54). The latter two helped the Dow Jones Transportation Average hit its best levels in three months.

Failing to participate in today's market gains was Health Care. Express Scripts (ESRX 66.01 -6.24) posted a 13% year/year rise in Q3 earnings, but shares plunged 8.6% after management said proposed changes to benchmark drug pricing would have a material adverse effect on its future results. In addition to weakness in PBMs, today's worst performing S&P industry group, HMOs, was also a weak spot after a cut by WellPoint (WLP 76.53 -2.09) to its full-year enrollment forecast overshadowed a 27% year/year rise in Q3 profits. DJ30 +6.80 NASDAQ +11.75 SP500 +4.84 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1318/1734/2.14 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 1094/2199/1.82 bln