Final DIspatch Poll (Columbus Ohio - predicts OHIO DEM LANDSLIDE!)

[democraticinsurgent]

Strickland +36 vs. Blackwell
Brown +24 vs. DeWhine
Dann +10 vs Montgomery
Brunner +21 vs. Hartman
Sykes +10 vs Taylor
Cordray +28 O'Brien

In addition, some other generally good news:

Issue 3 (Casino Gambling) Losing
Issue 4 (Faux "Smoke Less" Tobacco Company Bill) Losing
Issue 5 (True and reasonable Anti-Smoking Bill) Ahead

-----------------------------------------------------------------

Unbelieveable! These margins are shocking. The Wolfe family (owners of Dispatch) must be eating their collective faces this morning.



http://dispatch.com/?story=dispatch/2006/11/05/20061105-A1-00.html

[Binka]

1. Go Go BadAss Buckeyes!! n/t

[madmom]

2. this is all great news..anything about issue 2..minimum wage?

[democraticinsurgent]

7. Wasn't polled

there was a brief explanation in the printed paper about why, that it was complicated or something, but it didn't make sense. All of the ballot issues are complicated to a degree.

[democraticinsurgent]

8. Slight Dem edge in-tab

Which probably skews the numbers a little beyond reality, but not as much as this!

[maseman]

25. Weighting will fix any over sampling

I work in the polling field. If a polling company oversamples a particular demographic or target person, they use weighting to make the sample representative. What the hell does that mean?

I am completely making up numbers here but let's say that 55% of Ohioans are registered Republicans and 45% are registered Democrats. If they make their phone calls and 35% of those who answered the phone sa they are Dems and 65% say they are Repubs, that obviously doesn't represent reality. So what they do is they take those 35% of the Dems and they make their answers worth more to represent 45% of the populace. They will take the Repubs answers and make them worth 10% less to represent the populace. Make sense?

All polling and ratings systems have to use weighting. FYI they do the same thing for gender, age demographics, geography, etc. That way if they way over poll Women then Men, same type of weighting would apply.

[Ms. Toad]

36. This was a mail poll

One went in from our house. Depending on when the Dispatch pulled their lists it was either addressed to a Democrat or an Independent (My spouse voted in a party primary - as opposed to issues only - for the first time in ~25 years last May).

"The mail survey had 8 percent more Democratic respondents than Republican." Don't recall if the survey asked the question, or if they're going by coding on who they sent it to. If it was based on mailout coding, and they pulled party affiliation from the voter registration list they should be able to weight fairly accurately.

She mailed it in about a week ago - so some of it was done before the last minute ad trashing.

[bnr65432]

Issue 2 is up 48 to 29

According to a surveyUSA poll
It also has issue 3 failing 43-41
http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=58892

[bnr65432]

37. Issue 2 is up 48 to 29

According to a surveyUSA poll
It also has issue 3 failing 43-41
http://www.wkyc.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=58892

[cyclezealot]

3. shows how confused American voters are.

next door in Wolverine Michigan. Yes, we expect to go Democratic, but not a landlside. Confused American voters= the state has a Demcratic governor and Democratic senator up for re election. They will likely win in the 50 percentile. Maybe low 50's.
The point, many Democrats buy the Repug crap, Democrats bring on a bad business climate and believe it. Ohio, the opposite, since they have a corrupt Repug gov. Had Ohio a Democratic governor?
When we all know it is Dubya's fault. The whole east is rusting; yet, this makes Mich Dems less popular. Remember, if Dems don't win as big as expected on TUesday. It's not all totally bad. Two more years of mis rule be Repugs might destroy many of our civil liberties; but it will also destroy the Repugs.

[Doremus]

4. Those numbers are wild.

Every poll I've seen had Betty Montgomery ahead by double digits. And that spread in Sherrod's race is almost surreal.

From today's paper:

" In Ohio, Brown has a lead of 6 percentage points, at 50 percent to 44 percent, among likely voters. Five percent of voters were undecided, which is not enough by itself to shift the race to DeWine."

http://www.cleveland.com/search/index.ssf?/base/cuyahoga/116271953825320.xml?ncounty_cuyahoga&coll=2


The issues are weird too. The polling I've seen shows the exact opposite.

[Peace Patriot]

5. Strickland +36 vs. Blackwell. What a beautiful thing to wake up to!

...out here on the west coast. Ohio's going to be "bluer" than California!

Go, Ohio! I'm rooting for you! How about NO votes for Blackwell?

Unfortunately, we're heading BACKWARDS to where Ohio was in '04. Ba-a-a-d Secretary of State! Corrupt Republican machine. Diebold.

Any Californians tuning in, who haven't voted--vote for DEBRA BOWEN (Dem.) for Secretary of State!!! EXTREMELY important vote. Spread the word!

[MissWaverly]

16. don't like Blackwell holding the absentee votes

a little ballot stuffing in the works methinks.

[aquart]

23. With these kind of poll numbers, let him try.

I want that bastard in prison.

[MissWaverly]

35. I do hope the cheats get caught and PUNISHED bigtime

I remember Pete Rose and what happened when he was found to be betting on the games,
well, I think any pol caught in election fraud should be banned for life from running
for office.

[texpatriot2004]

6. Beat Blackwell nm

[democraticinsurgent]

9. He's been a goner for weeks

If for some reason he would be declared the "winner" there would be a firestorm. He's never led a poll or been even close as far as I remember.

[texpatriot2004]

12. Wonderful! So glad to hear it. nm

[Arugula Latte]

13. Hey, come on! A 37-point swing is not unheard of!

:rofl:


I'll bet those bastards had planned to rig it, but they didn't foresee it would be so amazingly lopsided.

[Fly by night]

20. Shit, they "swung" referenda in Ohio with similar margins last year.

If you're not familiar with those hacked referenda, go to www.freepress.org and look through their archives. I would put nothing less by the Ohio Rethugligans this Tuesday.

If Blackwell "wins" in Ohio, the revolution is on.

[Arugula Latte]

22. Damn. That's a good point.

:(

Yes, I do think this time people will "notice" if it happens again.

[Peggy Day]

10. Dispatch is SO conservative

I grew up in Columbus, and I go back some. The Dispatch makes me sick.

[jonnywishbone97]

11. The reason why the Rust belt is decaying

Is because all the Southern governors willing to whore out their workers for big business. It sickens me to live here but at least my union is strong and wont take crap from management.

[EFerrari]

14. Welcome to DU, jonnywishbone97

:)

[mvd]

15. Woohooo!

Even if the margins aren't that big, I think we'll have a great showing in Ohio. :bounce:

[LisaL]

17. Exciting, isn't it? I am getting ready to vote here in OH.

I don't think even diebolds could give victory to Blackwell. With 36 points behind, he wouldn't dare.

[jonnywishbone97]

18. Diebold will try to swing it the other way

Just be very careful on Tuesday.


I dont trust these scumbags after 2004

[LisaL]

19. Absolutely. I will check the paper record

to make sure that darn Diebold recorded how I voted. At least Diebolds here in Franklin county do have a paper record.

[AngryOldDem]

21. I'm not cheering until Wednesday...

...until I see incontrovertible PROOF that this landslide happened. One of the most bitter memories of my life is Election Night 2004. I was a precinct runner for a House candidate here in Ohio and late Election Day afternoon I dropped off some numbers at her office. I asked the worker there how Kerry was doing, and he said that all exit polls were showing a clear lead for Kerry and that it was looking really good that he take the state. This was around 5 p.m., when you can pretty much trust the numbers you're seeing. Well, we all know what happened.

I'm not expecting these percentages to play out exactly as advertised, but I am expecting some wins, especially for Strickland because he has pretty much tracked this way all summer. Brown has steadily pulled away from DeWine. But if something comes out of the blue -- Blackwell comes up with a double-digit win -- I say it's time that we shut down the process until we get questions answered. And that goes double nationally. If the GOP somehow pulls this one out of its ass and keeps both Houses -- again, do whatever it takes to investigate the electoral process, even if that means holding up Tuesday's results indefinitely.

This election is a referendum on more than just the war in Iraq.

Oh, and welcome to DU, by the way.

:hi:

[aquart]

24. If that happens, then we have to freeze Congress.

If they think what we were doing before was obstructionist, it can't be nothing to what we do next.

We also have to insist on freezing state governments until every ballot is explained. Stop everything. Obstruct until they scream and try to bring out the troops.

Do a Texas everywhere.

[Divine Discontent]

26. I couldn't agree more...

I will QUIT my job to fight for our country if I have to, and hope some rich Dems will take care of all of us who fight if they try and steal these elections.

I read somewhere that the Senate is safe for the Repubs (msnbc I think, or cbs) and I thought, HOWWWWWW they are so full of major scandal right now, that I can't see independents choosing to touch the republican candidates name!

Haggard is now saying he did sexual immorality with that male prost. and said he has a dark past blah blah blah... it's only dark because you hid from yourself, but I'm concerned he'll say he needs reprogramming therapy, but the point with that story is, there's thousands more votes that should swing Democratic...

[AngryOldDem]

31. Then do it

Yes, it will cause much disruption and chaos in the short term. But if protects the integrity of the system and this country over the long term, it will be worth it.

Saw a fantastic commentary on CBS's Sunday Morning. The woman compared the democratic efforts in Iraq with those here. The more we want to bring our "brand" of "freedom" to the rest of the world, the more we seem to want to suppress it here.

A part of me is of the mind that if things are just as skewed Tuesday as they were in 2004 (I live in Ohio) I will not waste my time casting a vote ever again. But I will, because I believe in the process and think that it still can be fixed. But people have to begin speaking up now.

[Jo March]

27. lizzy, at that point it hinges on voter suppression and intimidation

If he can't use Diebold in his favor, there are other ways to win. That's what scares me the most. :scared:

[bamacrat]

28. So that probably means the pukes in a pinch

[FernBell]

29. kick

[minnesota_liberal]

30. This would be great! GOTV Ohio and kick ass! (nm)

[Tippy]

32. Great News...BUT....remember Diabold? n/t

[Marie26]

33. Republicans' name is mud in OH.

I don't think they'll come back into power there for a long, long time.

[superconnected]

34. wait till the dem districts come back as having voted overwhelmingly

republican again and counties come in with more repug vote than people.

Ohio threw the election in 04' and that was a presidential. An intermediate one is no problem.

Just like '04 when the dems had won it in the press, we'll hear again - the people vote for values and against terror.

***********************
Seriously guys ....dont' put stock in ohio or florida or any place where the republicans are running the election.

[MGD]

38. The local papers have full page adds basically accusing Strickland of anything and everything

including covering up for a child molester on his staff. I'm pretty sure that kind of thing isn't legal during the final two weeks of an election. It looks like they spent a fortune to take out several full page last minute smear adds in a lot of local newspapers. Regardless, my money says it won't save their sorry asses tomorrow.

[TommyO]

39. GO OHIO!!!

Your neighbors to the east will be ousting Santorum while you do the work in your state. Next year when I vacation in Sandusky, I'll be doing it with an extra spring in my step.

[Art_from_Ark]

40. So how's Mean Jean doing?

It would be good to see her go down in defeat as well.